Although this is the type of question one might typically ask about an old high school colleague, in this post we will not be digging into the annuals of history, but merely catching up with some friends who we will see again in the near future. At this time of year there is so much racing going on, and so many horses aiming for big races on both sides of the Tasman. It is not unusual to scan a field and see a familiar name, and think "how do I know that name?" or "I didn't realise that horse was racing over there?" I find it most often happens with 4YO's, you become so familiar with a group of 3YO's all competing against each other, then as they step up to the next level they start to target open fields, classify themselves by distance, or move overseas. Today I want to see where they are, what they might be targeting, and what their chances may be.
The Obvious Ones
Jimmy Choux
How do I know that name? Aside from the fact he will get some main stream press. As a Three Year Old he won the Rosehill Guineas, New Zealand Derby, 2000 Guineas.
What has he done since? He has had a great start to his 4YO campaign, winning two Group 1's and coming second in the other.
What's next? He is heading to Melbourne where he is favourite in the Cox Plate
Lion Tamer
How do I know that name? He win the 2010 Victorian Derby.
What has he done since? Came back strongly to win the WFA Underwood Stakes, it was a strong win which put him in Melbourne Cup contention. This was followed up by running second last in the Caulfield Stakes, a race where he didn't seem to get any luck early on and didn't finish as well as as you would expect.
What's next? I looks like he will start in both the Cox Plate and the Melbourne Cup. He most likely wont start as a favourite, but he has proved he is capable in Melbourne, and will likely carry 54kg in the Cup, so there is still a lot to like.
Kings Rose
How do I know that name? She won the New Zealand Thousand Guineas, and the Sir Tristram Fillies amongst other races
What has she done since? Now trained in Melbourne, she has had a great start to the season. Winning Two Group 2 Races, and running second to an inform Mufhasa in the Group 1 Toorak.
What's next? It is not completely oblivious, she is nominated in the Cox Plate ($18), I think she has proved herself over that distance in the past, but it still looks like a tough field, she could go very well and at $18 is pretty good value. A race like the Myer Classic could also appeal given her recent record.
Scarlett Lady
How do I know that name? Winner of the Queensland Oaks, won 6 in a row before the Spring .
What has she done since? Good run in the Makfi in New Zealand, was unlucky in the Underwood, but ran home well.
What's next? Unfortunately she suffered an injury in the Underwood, it looks like she will be out of racing until late summer.
New Zealand Oaks Contenders
Midnight Oil
How do I know that name? Winner New Zealand Oaks
What has she done since? That was her last start in New Zealand, capping off a solid yet unpredictable 3YO year.
Whats next? Who knows, no seriously, if you know leave a comment, I cant find any indication through Google, NZ Racing, or Australian Racing Websites.
Zennista
How do I know that name? In addition to her 2nd in the New Zealand Oaks she raced well, particularly early as at 3YO.
What has she done since? One start at Rating 90 as a 4YO, for forth.
Whats next? No nominations in New Zealand are listed on her New Zealand Racing Profile. You can imagine she is looking to continue to build on that fourth.
Dating
How do I know that name? Dating had a great 2YO year, and a competitive 3YO year, winning at Group 3 level before heading to Sydney and competing in the AJC Oaks.
What has she doe since? She has had one start as a 4YO, a very good eye catching win in a top field of Mares at Group 3 Level, many in that race will have big plans this spring.
Whats Next? She is nominated in the Coupland Bakeries Mile, and she probably has a good shot, she is currently paying $10 after that win. It has also been reported she might be looking towards Melbourne and possibly the Myer Classic, however it does not appear a decision has been made.
New Zealand Derby Contenders
He's Remarkable
How do I know that name? Second New Zealand 2000 Guineas, ran in New Zealand Derby
What has he done since? Competed in the Rosehill Guineas and AJC Derby. Come back inspired as a 4YO winning his first two starts at Rating 90 level very solidly.
Whats next? Coupland Bakeries Mile, he is currently the favourite ($4). Looks like a good target but could be competitive with some of the older horses and Twlight Savings.
Icepin
How do I know that name? Won the Avondale Guineas, super consistent as at 3YO, competitive and winning a number of significant races.
What has he done since? Has not started since the Derby.
Whats next? He was a very talented 3YO and 2YO, sill surely continue when he returns at a 4YO. Not sure when that is likely to be.
Banchee
How do I know that name? Banchee was scratched in the Derby despite a promising runner on the back of a strong year as a 3YO. Winner at Group 1 level as a 2YO, she looks good particularly over a mile as a 3YO.
What has she done since? She had another Group 1 start as a 3YO, she won her only start as a 4YO to date in a small R90 at Taupo.
Whats next? She is nominated in the Couplands Bakeries Mile ($18), however word is this John Sargent trained runner could be another who might end up in the Myer Classic, which is looking like it could be a destination for a number of top Kiwi Mares, however it looks like Sargent is leaving this decision to the Vela's. I like Banchee, I think she has had some bad luck in certain races in her career and could be a real challenger for the CB mile, she could definitely go well over 1600m in Melbourne too.
Levin Classic
We Can Say It now
How do I know that name? Winner of the Levin Classic, also beat the older horses in the Captain Cook Stakes.
What has she done since? Her last start as a 3YO was a 5th in an excellent field in Hamilton, she then went to the Australian Guineas where she finished 14th.
Whats next? It appeared she was on her way to Dubai. She did not start in the Dubai Duty Free. It appears she has been retired.
New Zealand 2000 Guineas
Twlight Savings
How do I know that name? She was placed in both 2000 and 1000 Guineas. She also won an Open WFA race in Rotorua in impressive fashion prior to the 2000 Guineas.
What has she done since? She has at Three Starts as a 4YO with Two wins and an impressive third, one of the wins was at Group 3 level. In the third she absolutely flew home with Guiseppina who is highly rated herself for obvious reasons, her last win was sensational, going forward and dominating the pace before taking off for victory.
Whats next? She is nominated for the Coupland Mile, currently is second favourite ($5), I think she is probably a bit better than He's Remarkable right now and could win that race. It appears she is doing something different as she is one of the few Kiwi Mares not aiming for the Myer Classic, at least a good search reveals no such plans at this stage.
Remember Howe
How do I know that name? Surprisingly she has only won two races, one at Group 3 and one at Listed level. I say surprisingly because she was not that far away from winning more, with five seconds, three thirds and three fourths (including her four starts at age four).
What has she done since? Continued her form, 4322 from her past four starts.
Whats next? A win at some point you could assume, she is not nominated for any major races at this point but again you may see her in some later in the year.
Cellarmaster
How do I know that name? Cellarmaster had a very strong year as a 2YO, he was not able to reproduce the wins or Group 1 placings at age three. Remember Cellarmaster vs Jimmy Choux was a legitimate debate at age two.
What has he done since? His last New Zealand start was in December last year. He then raced the remainder of his 3YO year in Australia, he recorded a win in June. He has one start at age four where he finished 6th to the likes of Whobegotyou and Lights of Heaven.
Whats next? Probably more races in Aussie, looking for more black type.
Hoofit
How do I know that name? If you read this blog I talked about his win in the Bonecrusher Stakes here.
What has he done since? Not much in New Zealand, but I recently read he is in the USA and winning.
Whats next? Maybe the Breeders Cup Sprint.
New Zealand Thousand Guineas
Smoulder
How do I know that name? She ran third in the Thousand Guineas, she improved and went on to win at Group 2 level in the Eight Carat Classic, and then finish second to Barinka in the New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes.
What has she done since? Placed in the Foxbridge Plate, she has at one start at Flemington.
Whats next? It would only be speculation to say that she has a target in the Myer Classic, but certainly more races in Australia appear to be on the cards.
Others
Fleur de Lune
How do I know that name? She was Group 1 placed at 3YO and won three other races.
What has she done since? She has placed in two other Group races including a third to Mufhasa and Jimmy Choux
Whats next? She ran on the weekend at the Taranaki Breeders Stakes, she came tenth which was her worst race day placing. She holds no other nominations in New Zealand, at one point she held a nomination for the Cox Plate, so maybe Melbourne is still the target this spring.
Guiseppina
How do I know that name? I mentioned her earlier. She was highly rated at age three. She won four races, but did not fire when favourite at Group 1 level.
What has she done since? Ran a good second at Open Handicap level, She was then unlucky on the weekend at Group 3 level in the Taranaki Breeders Stakes.
Whats next? She may be another going to Melbourne.
You are now caught up with some of your favourite 3YO's from last year, many have started off well back in New Zealand and are heading over to the big money in Melbourne. Look for others to return in the coming months and return to the form which saw them running in New Zealand's biggest races for 3YO's.
Wednesday, 12 October 2011
Friday, 7 October 2011
Small Steps: Improving the Racing Experience
Author's Note: This is more of an essay than the other articles in this site. I am looking to cover ways to enhance the fan experience of Racing, ways which might draw new people to racing, or hook those who might attend the occasional meeting. Most of these will involve the home experience, and relatively small, simple and cheap ideas for improvement.
How popular is Horse Racing in New Zealand? it is certainly reasonably large business, according to the New Zealand Racing Board racing contributes around 1.3% of New Zealand's GDP (based on a study in 2003), Waikato Stud sites a similar number which may be based on the same study. Turnover from racing on and off course was roughly $1.4 billion in 2010, of which only about 5.5% of that total was on course, through the first half of 2011 turnover is looking slightly increased with roughly 6% of that on course.
Without more in-depth knowledge of the make up of those numbers it is hard to determine the contribution of the three codes incorporated in that number, it is also hard to determine the contribution from big bettors verses smaller punters, however as that number is purely turnover one could assume larger players make a significant contribution to that $1.4 billion. So it is not really possible to tell the number of people frequently contributing to this total, and the overall popularity of racing (of course it is possible to enjoy and follow racing without making any contribution to turnover).
The one telling piece of information is that the majority of revenue is derived through off course channels which must include the local TAB, TAB machines in bars, and placing bets from home or anywhere over the phone or Internet. Two years ago popularity was sufficient to warrant another dedicated racing TV channel, of course this was also a way to offer more racing, but there must have been a demand for this.
Possibly the best way to ask a question of popularity is not to ask how popular is racing? but to ask, why is horse racing not more popular? Even if you remove the gambling aspect from the racing there is still a lot to offer, you get to watch two highly skilled athletes, man (or Woman as the case may be) trying to tame a sometimes uncooperative beast and get the best performance from it; there is fast pace, tight finishes, frequent underdog stories; it is highly accessible and a traditional Kiwi pass time; there are compelling characters from the broadcast booth through the trainers, owners, jockeys and you can even include the horses themselves; there is also a danger aspect which tends to draw some people to certain sports. Without the wagering side racing still offers a chance to prove your skill and pick winners, with the gambling comes a way to potentially increase the excitement by adding a risk and reward factor. It is not necessarily more expensive than following the All Blacks if you enjoy the competition for what it is.
When you watch racing on TV you typically see a scattering of people in attendance at the course. The only times you see more is the major race days. What is the difference between these days and a regular Saturday? generally the quality of racing is higher, the racing feels special and a day at the races feels like an event, the other difference revolves around promotion and the amount which goes into the bigger days. Ellerslie racecourse is great at hosting events and parties they have the advantage of a large population to draw from, a thriving social scene which likes that type of event, and leading racing to back it up. I am sure Ellerslie has a promotional budget for advertising things like Auckland Cup Week and Whips and Spurs, but they also have an excellent Twitter and Facebook presence, and the advantage of putting on great events which lead to spreading word of mouth. Is there a hook? how many people who attend these events and even have a bet at these events will go on to follow racing more closely? many wont even think of it until the next party.
Should the racing industry even be worried about attracting crowds and increasing on-course turnover? clearly the clubs have something at stake with on-course turnover, however as a whole other than the big race days is it better to attend a meeting than watch it at home? Flick on a Super 15 game some time, you will almost certainly notice a difference in the sizes of the crowds in New Zealand, Australia and South Africa, they have bigger populations to draw from, but they also have larger stadiums to fill, this is New Zealand's national game, a New Zealand team has won the competition eleven out of sixteen years, and it doesn't cost much to get a ticket to most of these games. Maybe it is just more fun to watch a game at home or in a pub (an argument which can now be seen frequently), large screen TV's, high definition, replays, pause, rewind, change channels, surround sound, the ability to walk away if the game is not up to standard.
The TV is not the only place you can get up close to Rugby, online you can connect and communicate with your favourite player through Facebook or Twitter, there is an overload of information and analysis, rumour and banter can be exchanged on message boards. The fan experience beyond the stadium is excellent, you can be the biggest fan and not have to attend a single game, in fact with a laptop on your knee you can watch the game and communicate with other big fans on-line. If you want to go to a game you can pick and choose the bigger games with the better atmosphere and more at stake.
Racing has a great TV experience, two channels dedicated to racing from around the world. But whether you are going to the track or watching on TV it is still a full days commitment. The advent of MySky and other DVR helps this problem, the New Zealand Racing website has video of most races available, however the website seems to work infrequently, NZRacing has a decent YouTube channel, but it only features main races. Why not put all of the races on YouTube? which makes the maintenance of it their problem and then simply have links on the NZ Racing page next to the results, or put them in a way you can watch the race and then reveal the result.
The good thing about watching racing on TV is that there is constant racing, you can watch five or more race meetings at once if you choose, but it does leave you feeling a bit cold. It is constant racing with a couple of short interviews, most of the days previews are on the First Call which is before racing gets started for the day. It is always good to hear from trainers, jockeys, and owners after races, to see presentations, but also to hear more in-depth analysis of races after the event, it is understandable that money is generated through having more races to bet on, but it would be interesting to know how much more the personalities could resonate if they had a voice, it is clear people in New Zealand frequently bet with their hears rather than their heads, and patriotism takes over, why not give more access to the 'stars' of the racing industry and see if a sense of loyalty is generated. This doesn't need to interfere with the economics of broadcasting racing on a daily basis, but why not utilise YouTube for this purpose to showcase the personalities.
Small Step 1: Better utilisation of YouTube in conjunction with the television channels is a simple change which is reasonably inexpensive and would enhance the fan experience.
The TAB released a mobile friendly website earlier this year (m.tab.co.nz), it is a simple way to wager or look at odds on the go. Why do they not have an application for use on iPad/iPhone and Android devices? this seems like a simple next step (I say this as someone who works in the IT industry), it is a good way to integrate the web page with racing information and even include video or links to the YouTube channel to further integrate technology. Tablet PC's are ideal for scanning form (which can be done at present by downloading a .pdf file), and an app can offer links for more information or directly to place a bet. New Zealand Bloodstock has taken up the challenge and is using an iPad application for their latest catalogue it is a perfect example of the power of this type of technology, a buyer can have this in their hand for easy access to information or take it anywhere for an easy ability to look up information. A tablet would be an ideal tool to have either at home or at the track for placing bets and looking up information. The problem is of course if you are at the track placing bets using technology then the course may get cut out of the equation, it is hard to believe that courses don't offer free Wi-Fi, but understandable they have the concern that they will lose money from someone who has already taken the time to be on course but is then betting remotely. This is a deeper problem, the simple solution is to provide Wi-Fi and treat all bets coming through that IP address as 'on-course', the clubs can still get their share, and the fan gets an improved experience.
Why not offer free Wi-Fi in TAB outlets and more importantly pubs? not only would access to an application give more knowledge to people in these outlets, but it would allow for an ease of betting, and more trackable information for the TAB, particularly in a pub environment where they have automatic machines which must be connected to the TAB network anyway, the additional cost of building in wireless routers would be minimal compared to potential benefits. The other benefit would be advertising, most wireless signals send out the name of the network 'connect to x' which can pop up automatically on your phone or device, when you pull out your phone in a pub or walking down the street you could see that and at the very least it would raise awareness of the ability to get onto the TAB site/application.Free Wi-Fi access could also be locked to only the TAB website or application to avoid additional costs.
Small Step 2: Mobile Application
Small Step 3: Free on course Wi-Fi
Small Step 4: Free Wi-Fi in TAB outlets and Bars with TAB facilities.
The next small step is to increase interaction. Yes, the TAB has Facebook and Twitter pages, as do other prominent people and organisations in the racing industry, such as Pencarrow Stud and New Zealand Thoroughbred racing, but those sites are generally good for information and suitable for people with interest in the activities of those organisations. Where interaction could be better is with the stars of the industry, the jockeys, trainers, and television personalities. It is great that Hayden Tinsley is on twitter he also has a cool modern website, and Jason Tan is using this technology more frequently, but it needs to go beyond this. Some jockeys have web sites, Sam Spratt has a pretty good one which is kept up to date, but few others do, a quick Google search of the top 15 Jockey's on the current premiership yields very few websites, Google shows that several have Facebook pages, but I assume those are personal pages rather than 'fan' pages (I don't know, I am not going to risk invading their privacy to find out for sure), which makes sense because they are people in addition to athletes. It is can understandable that jockey's are effectively self employed, so luxuries like websites would probably come at a personal cost, and take up their own time to maintain etc.but, why doesn't NZ Racing set up Fan sites to promote some of the sports bigger stars, again there is a potential cost, but when people Google James McDonald, they would find specific information about a real success story rather than a scattering of references in articles and other sources.
Obviously jockeys and trainers are their own people, they have a job to focus on like anyone else, and may not want to invest time in this type of activity, clearly NZ Racing cant force them (nor would I suggest they try) to have Twitter accounts etc. to communicate with the public, also been in the public eye will not just bring out fans but potentially open them up to negative comments. However it would be cool to see more of them on Twitter, writing blogs occasionally, more interviews or online chats with the public. A great thing about been a sports fan in this era is the ability to communicate directly with your favourite stars, whether they be sports stars or movie stars, it is a chance to hear their voice unfiltered and a way for them to promote themselves.
Small Step 5: Offer to set up personal websites and fan pages for jockeys (most often trainers have websites because it is in their interest to be accessible to potential owners, although Googling trainers still leads to mixed results, it is surprising more stables don't have twitter accounts to promote successes to potential owners, much like Pencarrow Stud does), encourage people in the industry to get involved with Twitter.
The TAB currently has a good website, it is functional, easy to use and fits the purpose well. It probably doesn't make sense to make wholesale changes other than the occasional face lift to stay fresh, which they already do well. Many of the proposed changes need to be linked to be effective, ie. if you are going to have blogs, links to Jockey websites and twitter feeds, links to Youtube for interviews and race coverage, other ideas which are to come, and a smart phone/tablet application, obviously this would take up significant space on the existing website. One option is to add a tab with all of this stuff neatly organised, or secondly to create a separate website which either opens in a separate window when the tab is clicked, or is its own entity, for example there is currently not a Trackside website, it would be the perfect way to link the TV channels to the TAB website, and the new interactive fan experience which could be offered. There are other ways interacting can be included, such as holding frequent online chats with people in racing or analysts, and bio's of jockeys and trainers, of which there are some on the NZ Racing website, but it could be increased.
Small Step 6: TAB Website improvement to link interactivity with racing on TV and any improved fan experience.
Forums are a great way for fans to interact with other fans. There are two prominent forums in New Zealand Race Cafe and Race Chat. These both offer interesting insight and discussions, particularly in relation to insider-y aspects of Racing. There are a couple of problems, they are in general poorly moderated, which makes sense because they are privately run and moderation takes time, threads get derailed by personal attacks, off topic comments, and multiple threads about the same topic, lack of contributors. The insider environment also makes it difficult for a fan to contribute, a common rebuttal is simply stating your resume and claiming the other person doesn't know what they are talking about, which creates a hostile and intimidating environment. Yes, some topics around training, ownership, or NZTR's leadership and policies probably should be left to people in the know, however they do make interesting reading for people out of the know. The ideal forum, would have specific areas to discuss previews for up coming races or race meetings (one thread per race meeting and each larger race), a race day forum for people to discuss what they are watching, their impressions of up coming races and thoughts on results, Q&A forums for people who have knowledge to share with interested fans, Competitions (which admittedly Race Cafe does really well), as well as other general forums to discuss other things happening in racing, much like they currently have. By pulling this under the TAB (or alternate 'Fan' interaction website), a moderator could be employed (or better yet volunteers can be appointed to enforce forum rules, which would be reviewed to make sure Mod's are on the same page and not abusing power), it would also attract more people to contribute because it would be easier to find, sanctioned by NZ Racing, well moderated, and open for fans to make a contribution which would lead to more people contributing and discussing racing.
Small Step 7: Forums, an inviting environment for fans to hold discussions about the happenings in racing, in a well moderated environment.
Fantasy sports are huge business, estimates have placed the value at $3-4 Billion in the US (the real home of this type of thing). In this part of the worlds they exist in the form of tipping competitions, and pick a team style competitions. Even horse racing fantasy sports are not new. There are definite improvements which could be made, if these are brought under the TAB banner it would be inviting, can easily link to the forum, and other interaction and increase fan involvement. I have ideas of how this could work well, but this is already long winded enough, so I will save those for another post.
Small Step 8: Fantasy Sports
Can any of this make a difference? Is there a flow on from increasing the fan experience, to increasing the number of fans, to increasing turnover, to increasing stakes, to increasing ownership, to increasing product quality, to increasing fans?
Who knows, would it benefit current customers and fans? yes, some of these suggestions would benefit more fans than others would.
Is there a cost involved? yes, but many of these ideas are relatively simple and cheap (YouTube usage), some directly impact turnover (like Wi-Fi in pubs for example), some are more costly but have longer term benefits, many involve a start up cost and smaller maintenance expenditure (building websites, and applications). Some may only serve to raise the profile of people in the industry like trainers and jockeys which may directly benefit them, but may take time to flow through to increased turnover (although you can argue that there is a flow on effect).
The overall theme of this includes three aspects, firstly the use of technology which exists and is on offer to use, secondly the promotion of personalities, and thirdly the integration between technology, information channels, personalities and the fan experience.
None of this is intended to be a criticism of the way the TAB or New Zealand Racing operates. I am not privy to the politics or management of New Zealand Racing, so I don't know what it takes to get things done. Nor do I feel like I currently have a bad fan experience, but good is a relative term and things can always be improved. What I do know is what it is like to be a fan, I enjoy all sports and am passionate about Racing in New Zealand, I can see that the fan experience of racing relative to other sports can be improved, particularly relative to sports leagues in other parts of the world, and it would be great to follow racing at home as well as I can sports leagues which exist overseas.
How popular is Horse Racing in New Zealand? it is certainly reasonably large business, according to the New Zealand Racing Board racing contributes around 1.3% of New Zealand's GDP (based on a study in 2003), Waikato Stud sites a similar number which may be based on the same study. Turnover from racing on and off course was roughly $1.4 billion in 2010, of which only about 5.5% of that total was on course, through the first half of 2011 turnover is looking slightly increased with roughly 6% of that on course.
Without more in-depth knowledge of the make up of those numbers it is hard to determine the contribution of the three codes incorporated in that number, it is also hard to determine the contribution from big bettors verses smaller punters, however as that number is purely turnover one could assume larger players make a significant contribution to that $1.4 billion. So it is not really possible to tell the number of people frequently contributing to this total, and the overall popularity of racing (of course it is possible to enjoy and follow racing without making any contribution to turnover).
The one telling piece of information is that the majority of revenue is derived through off course channels which must include the local TAB, TAB machines in bars, and placing bets from home or anywhere over the phone or Internet. Two years ago popularity was sufficient to warrant another dedicated racing TV channel, of course this was also a way to offer more racing, but there must have been a demand for this.
Possibly the best way to ask a question of popularity is not to ask how popular is racing? but to ask, why is horse racing not more popular? Even if you remove the gambling aspect from the racing there is still a lot to offer, you get to watch two highly skilled athletes, man (or Woman as the case may be) trying to tame a sometimes uncooperative beast and get the best performance from it; there is fast pace, tight finishes, frequent underdog stories; it is highly accessible and a traditional Kiwi pass time; there are compelling characters from the broadcast booth through the trainers, owners, jockeys and you can even include the horses themselves; there is also a danger aspect which tends to draw some people to certain sports. Without the wagering side racing still offers a chance to prove your skill and pick winners, with the gambling comes a way to potentially increase the excitement by adding a risk and reward factor. It is not necessarily more expensive than following the All Blacks if you enjoy the competition for what it is.
When you watch racing on TV you typically see a scattering of people in attendance at the course. The only times you see more is the major race days. What is the difference between these days and a regular Saturday? generally the quality of racing is higher, the racing feels special and a day at the races feels like an event, the other difference revolves around promotion and the amount which goes into the bigger days. Ellerslie racecourse is great at hosting events and parties they have the advantage of a large population to draw from, a thriving social scene which likes that type of event, and leading racing to back it up. I am sure Ellerslie has a promotional budget for advertising things like Auckland Cup Week and Whips and Spurs, but they also have an excellent Twitter and Facebook presence, and the advantage of putting on great events which lead to spreading word of mouth. Is there a hook? how many people who attend these events and even have a bet at these events will go on to follow racing more closely? many wont even think of it until the next party.
Should the racing industry even be worried about attracting crowds and increasing on-course turnover? clearly the clubs have something at stake with on-course turnover, however as a whole other than the big race days is it better to attend a meeting than watch it at home? Flick on a Super 15 game some time, you will almost certainly notice a difference in the sizes of the crowds in New Zealand, Australia and South Africa, they have bigger populations to draw from, but they also have larger stadiums to fill, this is New Zealand's national game, a New Zealand team has won the competition eleven out of sixteen years, and it doesn't cost much to get a ticket to most of these games. Maybe it is just more fun to watch a game at home or in a pub (an argument which can now be seen frequently), large screen TV's, high definition, replays, pause, rewind, change channels, surround sound, the ability to walk away if the game is not up to standard.
The TV is not the only place you can get up close to Rugby, online you can connect and communicate with your favourite player through Facebook or Twitter, there is an overload of information and analysis, rumour and banter can be exchanged on message boards. The fan experience beyond the stadium is excellent, you can be the biggest fan and not have to attend a single game, in fact with a laptop on your knee you can watch the game and communicate with other big fans on-line. If you want to go to a game you can pick and choose the bigger games with the better atmosphere and more at stake.
Racing has a great TV experience, two channels dedicated to racing from around the world. But whether you are going to the track or watching on TV it is still a full days commitment. The advent of MySky and other DVR helps this problem, the New Zealand Racing website has video of most races available, however the website seems to work infrequently, NZRacing has a decent YouTube channel, but it only features main races. Why not put all of the races on YouTube? which makes the maintenance of it their problem and then simply have links on the NZ Racing page next to the results, or put them in a way you can watch the race and then reveal the result.
The good thing about watching racing on TV is that there is constant racing, you can watch five or more race meetings at once if you choose, but it does leave you feeling a bit cold. It is constant racing with a couple of short interviews, most of the days previews are on the First Call which is before racing gets started for the day. It is always good to hear from trainers, jockeys, and owners after races, to see presentations, but also to hear more in-depth analysis of races after the event, it is understandable that money is generated through having more races to bet on, but it would be interesting to know how much more the personalities could resonate if they had a voice, it is clear people in New Zealand frequently bet with their hears rather than their heads, and patriotism takes over, why not give more access to the 'stars' of the racing industry and see if a sense of loyalty is generated. This doesn't need to interfere with the economics of broadcasting racing on a daily basis, but why not utilise YouTube for this purpose to showcase the personalities.
Small Step 1: Better utilisation of YouTube in conjunction with the television channels is a simple change which is reasonably inexpensive and would enhance the fan experience.
The TAB released a mobile friendly website earlier this year (m.tab.co.nz), it is a simple way to wager or look at odds on the go. Why do they not have an application for use on iPad/iPhone and Android devices? this seems like a simple next step (I say this as someone who works in the IT industry), it is a good way to integrate the web page with racing information and even include video or links to the YouTube channel to further integrate technology. Tablet PC's are ideal for scanning form (which can be done at present by downloading a .pdf file), and an app can offer links for more information or directly to place a bet. New Zealand Bloodstock has taken up the challenge and is using an iPad application for their latest catalogue it is a perfect example of the power of this type of technology, a buyer can have this in their hand for easy access to information or take it anywhere for an easy ability to look up information. A tablet would be an ideal tool to have either at home or at the track for placing bets and looking up information. The problem is of course if you are at the track placing bets using technology then the course may get cut out of the equation, it is hard to believe that courses don't offer free Wi-Fi, but understandable they have the concern that they will lose money from someone who has already taken the time to be on course but is then betting remotely. This is a deeper problem, the simple solution is to provide Wi-Fi and treat all bets coming through that IP address as 'on-course', the clubs can still get their share, and the fan gets an improved experience.
Why not offer free Wi-Fi in TAB outlets and more importantly pubs? not only would access to an application give more knowledge to people in these outlets, but it would allow for an ease of betting, and more trackable information for the TAB, particularly in a pub environment where they have automatic machines which must be connected to the TAB network anyway, the additional cost of building in wireless routers would be minimal compared to potential benefits. The other benefit would be advertising, most wireless signals send out the name of the network 'connect to x' which can pop up automatically on your phone or device, when you pull out your phone in a pub or walking down the street you could see that and at the very least it would raise awareness of the ability to get onto the TAB site/application.Free Wi-Fi access could also be locked to only the TAB website or application to avoid additional costs.
Small Step 2: Mobile Application
Small Step 3: Free on course Wi-Fi
Small Step 4: Free Wi-Fi in TAB outlets and Bars with TAB facilities.
The next small step is to increase interaction. Yes, the TAB has Facebook and Twitter pages, as do other prominent people and organisations in the racing industry, such as Pencarrow Stud and New Zealand Thoroughbred racing, but those sites are generally good for information and suitable for people with interest in the activities of those organisations. Where interaction could be better is with the stars of the industry, the jockeys, trainers, and television personalities. It is great that Hayden Tinsley is on twitter he also has a cool modern website, and Jason Tan is using this technology more frequently, but it needs to go beyond this. Some jockeys have web sites, Sam Spratt has a pretty good one which is kept up to date, but few others do, a quick Google search of the top 15 Jockey's on the current premiership yields very few websites, Google shows that several have Facebook pages, but I assume those are personal pages rather than 'fan' pages (I don't know, I am not going to risk invading their privacy to find out for sure), which makes sense because they are people in addition to athletes. It is can understandable that jockey's are effectively self employed, so luxuries like websites would probably come at a personal cost, and take up their own time to maintain etc.but, why doesn't NZ Racing set up Fan sites to promote some of the sports bigger stars, again there is a potential cost, but when people Google James McDonald, they would find specific information about a real success story rather than a scattering of references in articles and other sources.
Obviously jockeys and trainers are their own people, they have a job to focus on like anyone else, and may not want to invest time in this type of activity, clearly NZ Racing cant force them (nor would I suggest they try) to have Twitter accounts etc. to communicate with the public, also been in the public eye will not just bring out fans but potentially open them up to negative comments. However it would be cool to see more of them on Twitter, writing blogs occasionally, more interviews or online chats with the public. A great thing about been a sports fan in this era is the ability to communicate directly with your favourite stars, whether they be sports stars or movie stars, it is a chance to hear their voice unfiltered and a way for them to promote themselves.
Small Step 5: Offer to set up personal websites and fan pages for jockeys (most often trainers have websites because it is in their interest to be accessible to potential owners, although Googling trainers still leads to mixed results, it is surprising more stables don't have twitter accounts to promote successes to potential owners, much like Pencarrow Stud does), encourage people in the industry to get involved with Twitter.
The TAB currently has a good website, it is functional, easy to use and fits the purpose well. It probably doesn't make sense to make wholesale changes other than the occasional face lift to stay fresh, which they already do well. Many of the proposed changes need to be linked to be effective, ie. if you are going to have blogs, links to Jockey websites and twitter feeds, links to Youtube for interviews and race coverage, other ideas which are to come, and a smart phone/tablet application, obviously this would take up significant space on the existing website. One option is to add a tab with all of this stuff neatly organised, or secondly to create a separate website which either opens in a separate window when the tab is clicked, or is its own entity, for example there is currently not a Trackside website, it would be the perfect way to link the TV channels to the TAB website, and the new interactive fan experience which could be offered. There are other ways interacting can be included, such as holding frequent online chats with people in racing or analysts, and bio's of jockeys and trainers, of which there are some on the NZ Racing website, but it could be increased.
Small Step 6: TAB Website improvement to link interactivity with racing on TV and any improved fan experience.
Forums are a great way for fans to interact with other fans. There are two prominent forums in New Zealand Race Cafe and Race Chat. These both offer interesting insight and discussions, particularly in relation to insider-y aspects of Racing. There are a couple of problems, they are in general poorly moderated, which makes sense because they are privately run and moderation takes time, threads get derailed by personal attacks, off topic comments, and multiple threads about the same topic, lack of contributors. The insider environment also makes it difficult for a fan to contribute, a common rebuttal is simply stating your resume and claiming the other person doesn't know what they are talking about, which creates a hostile and intimidating environment. Yes, some topics around training, ownership, or NZTR's leadership and policies probably should be left to people in the know, however they do make interesting reading for people out of the know. The ideal forum, would have specific areas to discuss previews for up coming races or race meetings (one thread per race meeting and each larger race), a race day forum for people to discuss what they are watching, their impressions of up coming races and thoughts on results, Q&A forums for people who have knowledge to share with interested fans, Competitions (which admittedly Race Cafe does really well), as well as other general forums to discuss other things happening in racing, much like they currently have. By pulling this under the TAB (or alternate 'Fan' interaction website), a moderator could be employed (or better yet volunteers can be appointed to enforce forum rules, which would be reviewed to make sure Mod's are on the same page and not abusing power), it would also attract more people to contribute because it would be easier to find, sanctioned by NZ Racing, well moderated, and open for fans to make a contribution which would lead to more people contributing and discussing racing.
Small Step 7: Forums, an inviting environment for fans to hold discussions about the happenings in racing, in a well moderated environment.
Fantasy sports are huge business, estimates have placed the value at $3-4 Billion in the US (the real home of this type of thing). In this part of the worlds they exist in the form of tipping competitions, and pick a team style competitions. Even horse racing fantasy sports are not new. There are definite improvements which could be made, if these are brought under the TAB banner it would be inviting, can easily link to the forum, and other interaction and increase fan involvement. I have ideas of how this could work well, but this is already long winded enough, so I will save those for another post.
Small Step 8: Fantasy Sports
Can any of this make a difference? Is there a flow on from increasing the fan experience, to increasing the number of fans, to increasing turnover, to increasing stakes, to increasing ownership, to increasing product quality, to increasing fans?
Who knows, would it benefit current customers and fans? yes, some of these suggestions would benefit more fans than others would.
Is there a cost involved? yes, but many of these ideas are relatively simple and cheap (YouTube usage), some directly impact turnover (like Wi-Fi in pubs for example), some are more costly but have longer term benefits, many involve a start up cost and smaller maintenance expenditure (building websites, and applications). Some may only serve to raise the profile of people in the industry like trainers and jockeys which may directly benefit them, but may take time to flow through to increased turnover (although you can argue that there is a flow on effect).
The overall theme of this includes three aspects, firstly the use of technology which exists and is on offer to use, secondly the promotion of personalities, and thirdly the integration between technology, information channels, personalities and the fan experience.
None of this is intended to be a criticism of the way the TAB or New Zealand Racing operates. I am not privy to the politics or management of New Zealand Racing, so I don't know what it takes to get things done. Nor do I feel like I currently have a bad fan experience, but good is a relative term and things can always be improved. What I do know is what it is like to be a fan, I enjoy all sports and am passionate about Racing in New Zealand, I can see that the fan experience of racing relative to other sports can be improved, particularly relative to sports leagues in other parts of the world, and it would be great to follow racing at home as well as I can sports leagues which exist overseas.
Monday, 3 October 2011
Searching for Value
As the Spring puzzle on both sides of the Tasman becomes clearer and horses are withdrawn from contention we start to get markets which are fairly representative of final fields for the big upcoming races. Over the past weekend favourites shone, other genuine contenders represented themselves fairly well, and markets tended to tighten around the favorite, particularly the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup markets. From going over the options there is still some value to be found, today I would like to look at some of the better value which might be on offer at the New Zealand TAB. Obviously I don't know the plans for any of the runners other than what they are nominated for so there is a chance that what I see as value really represents that they may be targeting other races and may be withdrawn or might not reach the level of acceptance for a particular race.
New Zealand
Southys New Zealand 2000 Guineas (5th November)
There should always be some value in a field of 3YO's, particularly this early in the season where many are relying on reputations as a 2YO or limited race day experience. No surprise to see that Anabandana is the favourite in this market ($5), this appears to be held artificially high depending on how you feel about Burgundy's ($7) chances in this race. The well bred Burgundy is set to have his second start at Taupo this Thursday in a Rating 70 over 1400m. Assuming he will start in the 2000 Guineas, $7 is value you might not get if he wins at Taupo. If you like Anabandana this will likely fluctuate depending on the outcome of the same race, potentially going up if Burgundy wins his second start.
Quibbling about favourites is not exactly what I am here to do, on race day (assuming both start) you can expect that $5 and $7 will probably represent better value than what you would get on the tote, particularly given the absence of Antonio Lombardo. What I had hoped to do was to target some of the higher paying runners who might offer some value.
Vincent Street ($41) - when you compare this to Dollario ($31) who he beat two starts back. The Hawkes Bay run was not bad in a good field, where the top three really stood out, he ran on well in each of these past two starts and it looks as if 1600m might be a good distance.
Kasumi ($18) - Still a bit unknown in my opinion. The good win in the Canterbury Belle Stakes was improved when Planet Rock came out to win on the weekend in the Guineas trial, yet you will get Planet Rock at $14 right now. Rock and Pop weaved his way through the from near the back to second on the weekend, would have only needed ten more meters to beat Planet Rock and he is still offering $14. All three represent good value.
Prestigious Miss ($26) - Was beaten by almost two lengths by Antonio Lombardo on the weekend in Hastings, as the Pins Colt was eased home , but it was still an eye catching run. Ginner Hart ($10) was a narrow third and also finished off strongly, but this is excellent value at present.
Holy Moly ($31) - This Roger James trained Filly seems to finish strongly, while she may have benefited from some track bias last start you cant help but feel that the 1600m will suit her. Whoshe ($41) has drifted in this market, and rightly so after the past two runs, but it was an impressive effort for Holy Moly in Auckland.
Coupland's Bakeries Mile - 9th November
He's Remarkable ($4) and Twlight Savings ($5) both looked good on the weekend, not sure what they might carry on the day, but think they both might do well in this type of field under Handicap conditions.
Hold it Harvey ($16) - Looks like at this stage it is likely to be the top weight, but given recent WFA placings that should not be an issue. He was 3rd in this last year, and is probably in better form this time around.
Banchee ($14) - Group 1 Winner as a 2YO, followed that up with a good 3YO year. Yet to get back to the races as a 4YO but has trialed twice, seems to need a few races to get going, but $14 seems a good price.
New Zealand Bloodstock 1000 Guineas - 12 November
Artistic ($8) certainly threw a spanner in the works of this race with her win in Auckland a couple of weeks ago. Anabandana ($3) is the deserving favourite at this point and it could be hard to see anything beating her, but this is about value. I still like Prestigious Miss, but $12 is less value than the 2000 Guineas and seems about right. Kasumi is at $10 and Planet Rock is at $8 for this, of the three I still prefer Prestigious Miss. Holy Moly ($18) I have talked about in the past, but has excellent value here.
Testa Secret ($21) - She was a distant second to Anabandana, and second wont pay off $21 win odds, but that is value and if that is what we are looking for then it is much better value than Kasumi or Planet Rock at this point.
River Nymph ($61) - Leading and then fading to 4th at Auckland in the Soliloquy goes against a lot of what we saw on the day, but if she is going to make an appearance $61 would be great odds to get given it has not been far away as a 3YO.
Dowager Queen ($12) - Great value for a Australian Group 1 Placed runner, but she may not be back for this race I suspect.
I might just hold off the New Zealand Cup right now, there is a lot of value in the market, but I suspect this is because it is hard to pin down a final field with several runners having plans in Australia.
Caulfield Cup - 15 October
I think this will be a very interesting race and I plan on writing about it at length next week. The Odd's for this could adjust with the Caulfield Stakes this weekend, but it looks like December Draw will be the short priced favourite.
Alcopop ($21) - Always seems to be nominated in these big races at this time of the year. He is definitely more suited to handicap conditions, however his last start was in a top field over 1600m under WFA conditions, he flew home for second beating the likes of Linton and Whobegotyou. He is nominated in the Caulfield Stakes this weekend in a field including Whobegotyou, Playing God, Lion Tamer, Sincero and Descarado. It looks like the weights will be relatively similar in the Caulfield Cup, so why isn't $21 good value this far out from the race?
Southern Speed ($26) - When second at the Underwood over 1800m it looked like more distance might be too much, however the longer (2000m) Turnbull showed that she might have a bit more to offer coming home strongly for 4th.
Hawk Island ($26) - The Verminator ($31) will be penalised 2kg for this race following the Metrop win on the weekend. Hawk Island (I am not sure about the penalty) did well from a tricky barrier draw to come second, that distance form is impressive coming into a race like this.
Niwot ($51) - Don't know much about the horse, but $51 seems a bit over priced for a stayer who will not carry a lot and ran second in the Bart Cummings. Still not in the field at present 29th in the order of entry, but that should be close enough to get a start.
Cox Plate - 22 October
I am super excited about this race, Jimmy Choux is currently a $4 favourite, but depending on the makeup of the final field this will be interesting. The other favourites include Helmet ($8), Lion Tamer, Whobegotyou ($9) and Smart Missile ($10). I always like 3YO's in WFA conditions, it is a big test, but they have a big weight advantage, and what we have seen from Helmet and Smart Missile they deserve to be considered for this. Whobegotyou is pretty good value at $9, I don't see why he would not start this race, and he was the favourite a few weeks ago, a good showing in Caulfield on the weekend may reduce this price, so worth a good look now. Lion Tamer is no longer in the field at the NZ TAB for the Caulfield cup, so one might assume this is his target prior to the Melbourne Cup, he was leaving them towards the finish of the Underwood so the WFA conditions will suit him too.
Kings Rose ($21) - Has now won twice in Melbourne and is proven over 2000m. She looked good in both of those starts and if this is her target $21 is good value.
Glass Harmonium ($18) - The Turnbull was a two horse race towards the finish, December Draw finished on top and is favourite in the Caulfield cup, Glass Harmonium is consistent and has the ability to run over 2000m, the 4th int he Underwood included a pretty good finish.
Melbourne Cup - 1st November
Still a lot to choose from this far out from the Cup, so there should be some good value if you can predict the likely starters. With the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and other large stakes races still to come these odds should change a lot, but if you expect a bold showing from a Melbourne Cup nominee in an upcoming race now might be the best time to get value.
Lion Tamer is the favourite ($9), this may be a New Zealand thing, he is a Derby winner, and also has shown his form winning the Underwood. The Caulfield Stakes this weekend will tell us more, but one would think the two miles shouldn't be an issue.
Americain ($13) - I don't think we will get to see him in the Caulfield Cup however for the defending champ not to be favoured at this stage it will give some pretty good value.
Glass Harmonium ($41) - For the reasons stated above, he has won up to 2200m, but placed over longer, 54kg seems pretty fair.
Niwot ($41) - Will only carry 51kg, has won over 3200m which is probably why $41 is a shorter price than the $51 for the Caulfield cup. 45th in the order of entry at present.
Showcause ($81) - I don't really think he has a legitimate chance to win this race. He is 50th in the Order of Entry. However, $81 is fair for a light weight, genuine stayer, with a win and a place over two miles and now a placing in a Australian black type race.
The Verminator ($41) - Even after the 2kg penalty, 52kg's is all this horse will carry. 36th on the Order of Entry is still 1 spot above December Draw (which is moot if the Caulfield Cup favourite comes through in that race). That 2400m win on the weekend in Sydney was impressive enough to warrant consideration over more distance.
Bart Cummings - At this stage he still has nominated Precedence ($21) and Illo ($31), both look like they will be in the Cup. I was impressed with Precedence until the Turnbull where she proved that maybe she is not quite up to that level of competition, however Illo is interesting particularity when you consider recent form of European runners in this race. I have never laid eyes on this horse, so I cannot provide any in depth analysis other than from what I can read, but he seems a stayer who is used to carrying significantly more weight than he will this year, and over the years it appears Bart Cummings has had some success in this Race.
These races are all still a long way away and subject to significant changes as horses perform (or don't) or are otherwise eliminated, so even if you like some of the shorter priced horses who are almost certain to start you could get a much better price now than on Race day. I am not usually a punter who takes fixed odds this far out, however what I do like about it is that with even as little as a fiver on a horse like Glass Harmonium is that your bet lives through every start between now and November first, a bad race and your value decreases and maybe connections reconsider which path to take this spring, a good race and he could move towards favouritism, not only does your value increase but you can look like a smart bastard down the pub with your mates on cup day. Either way it is fun and can be exciting without needing to specifically bet on any other races.
New Zealand
Southys New Zealand 2000 Guineas (5th November)
There should always be some value in a field of 3YO's, particularly this early in the season where many are relying on reputations as a 2YO or limited race day experience. No surprise to see that Anabandana is the favourite in this market ($5), this appears to be held artificially high depending on how you feel about Burgundy's ($7) chances in this race. The well bred Burgundy is set to have his second start at Taupo this Thursday in a Rating 70 over 1400m. Assuming he will start in the 2000 Guineas, $7 is value you might not get if he wins at Taupo. If you like Anabandana this will likely fluctuate depending on the outcome of the same race, potentially going up if Burgundy wins his second start.
Quibbling about favourites is not exactly what I am here to do, on race day (assuming both start) you can expect that $5 and $7 will probably represent better value than what you would get on the tote, particularly given the absence of Antonio Lombardo. What I had hoped to do was to target some of the higher paying runners who might offer some value.
Vincent Street ($41) - when you compare this to Dollario ($31) who he beat two starts back. The Hawkes Bay run was not bad in a good field, where the top three really stood out, he ran on well in each of these past two starts and it looks as if 1600m might be a good distance.
Kasumi ($18) - Still a bit unknown in my opinion. The good win in the Canterbury Belle Stakes was improved when Planet Rock came out to win on the weekend in the Guineas trial, yet you will get Planet Rock at $14 right now. Rock and Pop weaved his way through the from near the back to second on the weekend, would have only needed ten more meters to beat Planet Rock and he is still offering $14. All three represent good value.
Prestigious Miss ($26) - Was beaten by almost two lengths by Antonio Lombardo on the weekend in Hastings, as the Pins Colt was eased home , but it was still an eye catching run. Ginner Hart ($10) was a narrow third and also finished off strongly, but this is excellent value at present.
Holy Moly ($31) - This Roger James trained Filly seems to finish strongly, while she may have benefited from some track bias last start you cant help but feel that the 1600m will suit her. Whoshe ($41) has drifted in this market, and rightly so after the past two runs, but it was an impressive effort for Holy Moly in Auckland.
Coupland's Bakeries Mile - 9th November
He's Remarkable ($4) and Twlight Savings ($5) both looked good on the weekend, not sure what they might carry on the day, but think they both might do well in this type of field under Handicap conditions.
Hold it Harvey ($16) - Looks like at this stage it is likely to be the top weight, but given recent WFA placings that should not be an issue. He was 3rd in this last year, and is probably in better form this time around.
Banchee ($14) - Group 1 Winner as a 2YO, followed that up with a good 3YO year. Yet to get back to the races as a 4YO but has trialed twice, seems to need a few races to get going, but $14 seems a good price.
New Zealand Bloodstock 1000 Guineas - 12 November
Artistic ($8) certainly threw a spanner in the works of this race with her win in Auckland a couple of weeks ago. Anabandana ($3) is the deserving favourite at this point and it could be hard to see anything beating her, but this is about value. I still like Prestigious Miss, but $12 is less value than the 2000 Guineas and seems about right. Kasumi is at $10 and Planet Rock is at $8 for this, of the three I still prefer Prestigious Miss. Holy Moly ($18) I have talked about in the past, but has excellent value here.
Testa Secret ($21) - She was a distant second to Anabandana, and second wont pay off $21 win odds, but that is value and if that is what we are looking for then it is much better value than Kasumi or Planet Rock at this point.
River Nymph ($61) - Leading and then fading to 4th at Auckland in the Soliloquy goes against a lot of what we saw on the day, but if she is going to make an appearance $61 would be great odds to get given it has not been far away as a 3YO.
Dowager Queen ($12) - Great value for a Australian Group 1 Placed runner, but she may not be back for this race I suspect.
I might just hold off the New Zealand Cup right now, there is a lot of value in the market, but I suspect this is because it is hard to pin down a final field with several runners having plans in Australia.
Caulfield Cup - 15 October
I think this will be a very interesting race and I plan on writing about it at length next week. The Odd's for this could adjust with the Caulfield Stakes this weekend, but it looks like December Draw will be the short priced favourite.
Alcopop ($21) - Always seems to be nominated in these big races at this time of the year. He is definitely more suited to handicap conditions, however his last start was in a top field over 1600m under WFA conditions, he flew home for second beating the likes of Linton and Whobegotyou. He is nominated in the Caulfield Stakes this weekend in a field including Whobegotyou, Playing God, Lion Tamer, Sincero and Descarado. It looks like the weights will be relatively similar in the Caulfield Cup, so why isn't $21 good value this far out from the race?
Southern Speed ($26) - When second at the Underwood over 1800m it looked like more distance might be too much, however the longer (2000m) Turnbull showed that she might have a bit more to offer coming home strongly for 4th.
Hawk Island ($26) - The Verminator ($31) will be penalised 2kg for this race following the Metrop win on the weekend. Hawk Island (I am not sure about the penalty) did well from a tricky barrier draw to come second, that distance form is impressive coming into a race like this.
Niwot ($51) - Don't know much about the horse, but $51 seems a bit over priced for a stayer who will not carry a lot and ran second in the Bart Cummings. Still not in the field at present 29th in the order of entry, but that should be close enough to get a start.
Cox Plate - 22 October
I am super excited about this race, Jimmy Choux is currently a $4 favourite, but depending on the makeup of the final field this will be interesting. The other favourites include Helmet ($8), Lion Tamer, Whobegotyou ($9) and Smart Missile ($10). I always like 3YO's in WFA conditions, it is a big test, but they have a big weight advantage, and what we have seen from Helmet and Smart Missile they deserve to be considered for this. Whobegotyou is pretty good value at $9, I don't see why he would not start this race, and he was the favourite a few weeks ago, a good showing in Caulfield on the weekend may reduce this price, so worth a good look now. Lion Tamer is no longer in the field at the NZ TAB for the Caulfield cup, so one might assume this is his target prior to the Melbourne Cup, he was leaving them towards the finish of the Underwood so the WFA conditions will suit him too.
Kings Rose ($21) - Has now won twice in Melbourne and is proven over 2000m. She looked good in both of those starts and if this is her target $21 is good value.
Glass Harmonium ($18) - The Turnbull was a two horse race towards the finish, December Draw finished on top and is favourite in the Caulfield cup, Glass Harmonium is consistent and has the ability to run over 2000m, the 4th int he Underwood included a pretty good finish.
Melbourne Cup - 1st November
Still a lot to choose from this far out from the Cup, so there should be some good value if you can predict the likely starters. With the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and other large stakes races still to come these odds should change a lot, but if you expect a bold showing from a Melbourne Cup nominee in an upcoming race now might be the best time to get value.
Lion Tamer is the favourite ($9), this may be a New Zealand thing, he is a Derby winner, and also has shown his form winning the Underwood. The Caulfield Stakes this weekend will tell us more, but one would think the two miles shouldn't be an issue.
Americain ($13) - I don't think we will get to see him in the Caulfield Cup however for the defending champ not to be favoured at this stage it will give some pretty good value.
Glass Harmonium ($41) - For the reasons stated above, he has won up to 2200m, but placed over longer, 54kg seems pretty fair.
Niwot ($41) - Will only carry 51kg, has won over 3200m which is probably why $41 is a shorter price than the $51 for the Caulfield cup. 45th in the order of entry at present.
Showcause ($81) - I don't really think he has a legitimate chance to win this race. He is 50th in the Order of Entry. However, $81 is fair for a light weight, genuine stayer, with a win and a place over two miles and now a placing in a Australian black type race.
The Verminator ($41) - Even after the 2kg penalty, 52kg's is all this horse will carry. 36th on the Order of Entry is still 1 spot above December Draw (which is moot if the Caulfield Cup favourite comes through in that race). That 2400m win on the weekend in Sydney was impressive enough to warrant consideration over more distance.
Bart Cummings - At this stage he still has nominated Precedence ($21) and Illo ($31), both look like they will be in the Cup. I was impressed with Precedence until the Turnbull where she proved that maybe she is not quite up to that level of competition, however Illo is interesting particularity when you consider recent form of European runners in this race. I have never laid eyes on this horse, so I cannot provide any in depth analysis other than from what I can read, but he seems a stayer who is used to carrying significantly more weight than he will this year, and over the years it appears Bart Cummings has had some success in this Race.
These races are all still a long way away and subject to significant changes as horses perform (or don't) or are otherwise eliminated, so even if you like some of the shorter priced horses who are almost certain to start you could get a much better price now than on Race day. I am not usually a punter who takes fixed odds this far out, however what I do like about it is that with even as little as a fiver on a horse like Glass Harmonium is that your bet lives through every start between now and November first, a bad race and your value decreases and maybe connections reconsider which path to take this spring, a good race and he could move towards favouritism, not only does your value increase but you can look like a smart bastard down the pub with your mates on cup day. Either way it is fun and can be exciting without needing to specifically bet on any other races.
Friday, 30 September 2011
Hoping for rain
I am well aware that it is 2011 and not 1811 and if it rains there are plenty of things which can be done outside the house while remaining indoors, but a nice wet weekend would be an excellent excuse not to leave the couch this weekend. It is an amazing weekend for sport and racing, starting tonight at Moonee Valley with group and listed racing and an anticipated Sepoy vs More Joyous battle and the JRA cup featuring several Cup hopefuls, Saturday has impressive Group 1 Racing from Sydney, Jimmy Choux going for two straight in Hastings and important Rugby World Cup action, then Sunday back to Melbourne for the Turnbull Stakes as well as the All Blacks and the NRL grand final featuring the New Zealand Warriors. A tip for the fellas out there, send flowers to your Wife and/or Girlfriend today because you might not be on speaking terms on Monday.
I wanted to touch on some of the key races I am looking forward to this weekend as well as attempt to put together my first New Zealand 3YO Power Rankings. I will start with Hawkes Bay racing tomorrow.
It is the third New Zealand Group 1 of the season the Do-we-have-a-sponsor-yet Spring Classic (brought to you by New Zealand Bloodstock Insurance apparently), formerly New Zealand's richest weight for age this years addition will be run over 2040m for a healthy $300k. When Jimmy Choux won the Windsor Park Plate many pundits believed it would be his last race in New Zealand before the Cox Plate and others believed it would be his last race in general before the Cox Plate, however word is he pulled up nicely after that and is ready for this. Although I would have loved to see him at Flemington this Sunday from a fans point of view I can understand the desire to give him another run at home over the Cox plate distance. Not that the connections would at all be concerned; as a fan who is trying to get a feel for how he compares to other Cox Plate hopefuls I am not sure what kind of message it sends if he is not able to win this race and it would surely effect his favouritism.
Jimmy Choux will start as a very short priced favourite, I am still a little concerned, I am not sure this race is that easy, and there are potentially other horses more naturally suited to this distance. I think the mile might be Jimmy's best distance and any wins at or above 2000m simply point to how talented and gutsy he really is. Do I seem him winning this? Well, yes, all evidence certainly suggests that he should, but It will be interesting to see how horses who won last season over 2000m in Group 1 or 2 races go in this race, Red Ruler, Hold it Harvey, and the biggest danger Booming. There are also a handful here who I like the look of, but not sure how well they will handle the WFA conditions, Back in Black and Seaflyte are not without their merits.
My Selections
1st - Jimmy Choux - simply has the talent, ran home strongly over 1600m, is going on to the Cox Plate so should win this.
2nd - Booming - This is his distance, looked good at the end of the Windsor Park Plate, could give Jimmy a tough race.
3rd - Hold it Harvey - from the draw he could find himself in a similar position that he did for the Windsor Park Plate he came home strongly behind two very good in form horses in that race.
4th - Dawn Ghost - tempting to take Red Ruler, but I didn't really like what I saw in Hawkes Bay last start and I don't really want to go chalk, so I think Dawn Ghost who is only carrying 1kg more from a pretty good fifth here last start could be interesting, particularly given all the horses who beat her that day are carrying significantly more today.
Other racing I am interested in from Hawkes Bay starting with the small but talented field in the first race, no doubt a few of these will have their sights set on the New Zealand Cup. Royal Queen in race 3 looks set to complete a Hawkes Bay hat trick, she won so well on the second day it is hard to see her losing this despite the outside barrier draw, she could lead again and we could see a similar performance. Race 5 features He's Remarkable who will be more than a warm favourite if he runs in this race, building towards the Coupland's Bakery Mile no doubt. The Group 3 Tradertracks Stakes could be his destination, however he will face some tough competition in that race, Twlight Savings would appear the one to beat after the way she ran home here last time.
I missed out a very interesting race, but that is because I wanted to focus on it a bit more closely and give you my 3YO Power Rankings.
There are obviously a lot of large races over the year aimed at 3YO's. The thing which makes a racehorse Power Rankings more challenging compared to a Rugby Would Cup Power Rankings is that not all horses are created equal, each has a different goal, there may be 3YO's who have not started a race yet who may be Powerful by Derby time, and there may be 3YO's who although targeting a 1600m race coming up may be more natural sprinters or longer distance horses. So this really comes down to buzz, feel, and general impression of their quality. There should be no suprises who is rated number 1.
Number10 - Savabil - I rate this horse and should normally have it higher, but I can't find any information about where he is and when we might see him again. However based on a strong 2YO campagin he needs to be on this list.
Number 9 - Whoshe - Forgive the last start, had she won she would have been higher on this list, but she looked quality before this.
Number 8 - Artistic - I have already written about her performance in the Bonecrusher Stakes, but it was still impressive.
Number 7 - Estrato - Winner of 3 of 8 including one listed race, raced well in top 2YO company, a winner well in his second start as a 3YO.
Number 6 - Kasumi -Winner of past two, both at listed level.
Number 5 - Testa Secret - Expected to run second to Anabandana last start, and did, can't penalise that, second to number 3 on this list before that, a series of solid performances in big races throughout her career.
Number 4 - Burgundy - Sure he has only one start, but there was a lot of hype about that, he is second favourite for the 2000 Guineas.
Number 3 - Dowager Queen - Won her last 3 in New Zealand, represented herself well in Australia in the winter.
Number 2 - Antonio Lombardo - Won 4 of 10 starts, won very strongly in his only start at age 3.
Number 1 - Anabandana - The top 2 Year Old from last season who already looks like she could be the top 3YO.
So, yes, I think Antonio Lombardo is going to win the Hawkes Bay Guineas, I think Ginner Hart and Prestigious Miss are interesting, they couldn't crack this list because I am not sure they have accomplished enough at a high enough level to be considered Powerful under my interpretation, the other horse from this list in this race is Estrato, he has a tough draw to overcome, but I was impressed how he kept fighting for victory last start, I imagine Peter McKay is pleased with these two 3YO's.
Australian Thoughts
Moonee Valley
The JRA Cup was set to feature Southern Speed which would have been interesting, but it still features an interesting group of horses, I like to see these races as horses start to stand out for the Spring. Innocent Lady is having an Australian start and should be interesting to watch.
The Mangikato Stakes is the interesting one to watch, Sepoy was a horse who made you say "wow!", and More Joyous is clearly class, I am just excited to watch, but think the lighter weighted Sepoy will come out on top.
Zabeelionaire is running in the 7th race. I don't have any thoughts, I just think it is an outstanding name.
Randwick
Both the Epsom and the Metropolitan handicaps should be excellent. I was hoping to see Kings Rose race again, but the field for the Epsom is still top notch. The interesting this about this race is the weight difference between Sincero with 57kgs, and Pinker Pinker carrying 52.5kg. The weights are very interesting, every horse numbered 5 or above is carrying 52.5kg's. The Metrop field has considerable class, this looks like a top class, I am not sure anyone knows what to expect, the winner will deserve this Group 1. Favourites in this race come from the top of the book and the lower weights, it should be very interesting.
I have already shared my thoughts on Dowager Queen, she may be a highly ranked 3YO, but I am not sure she is quite at the class to take out this Group 1 race. If she does she probably goes to the top spot of the next power rankings and really proves her class.
Flemington
I always like the Bart Cummings, I think it is a good build up to the Melbourne Cup and even though on the face of it the main contenders are not present I think a win here could really jump someone up the rankings. Harris Tweed will be weighed down with a massive 60kg. However with Showcause carrying 54kg it is an excellent chance to put his foot forward for the Melbourne Cup, he won the Avondale cup at this weight and with good 3200m form I think he would like to go well in this.
Keep the Peace is back. She has a horrible draw to overcome, and is probably not quite at her best, however she has placed in Group races in Melbourne in the past and I am definitely a fan. Smoulder is another horse I always gravitate to when she runs. I thought she was very unlucky in the Avondale Guineas and possibly could have gone on to do something in the Auckland Derby until she was scratched, I think we would look at her chances very differently had that occurred and is one that could prove her merit in Australia.
The Turnbull Stakes is a good example of what is great about Victorian racing in the spring. We start with nominations and an idea of who will run in the Cox Plate and the big cups, as the spring goes on we get more information about who is in form, who looks good, and who could surprise. This is another one of the races that was taken out by So You Think last year. This is a very strong feild and will reveal a lot more, I have shared my thoughts about some of these runners in the past. This is an excellent field, I imagine that December Draw will be favoured, but wont have it easy when you look at the likes of Southern Speed for whom this may be to far; Glass Harmonium will be liked by many, as will Rekindled Interest; if you like December Draw it is hard not to take a second look at At First Sight; there were a couple of horses who finished off the Underwood greatly in Playing God and Precedence; Linton is probably more suited to this distance than his earlier races this spring; and I have not even mentioned Efficient yet, he will be better for that first start and won this race 2 years (and 2 starts) ago. To pick one I would have to go for Playing God, this draw is much better, and he was unlucky in the running of the Underwood, he will carry 1.5kg less and an extra 200m would be suitable.
Those are my thoughts and what I am looking forward to on this long 'wet' weekend, enjoy the racing!
I wanted to touch on some of the key races I am looking forward to this weekend as well as attempt to put together my first New Zealand 3YO Power Rankings. I will start with Hawkes Bay racing tomorrow.
It is the third New Zealand Group 1 of the season the Do-we-have-a-sponsor-yet Spring Classic (brought to you by New Zealand Bloodstock Insurance apparently), formerly New Zealand's richest weight for age this years addition will be run over 2040m for a healthy $300k. When Jimmy Choux won the Windsor Park Plate many pundits believed it would be his last race in New Zealand before the Cox Plate and others believed it would be his last race in general before the Cox Plate, however word is he pulled up nicely after that and is ready for this. Although I would have loved to see him at Flemington this Sunday from a fans point of view I can understand the desire to give him another run at home over the Cox plate distance. Not that the connections would at all be concerned; as a fan who is trying to get a feel for how he compares to other Cox Plate hopefuls I am not sure what kind of message it sends if he is not able to win this race and it would surely effect his favouritism.
Jimmy Choux will start as a very short priced favourite, I am still a little concerned, I am not sure this race is that easy, and there are potentially other horses more naturally suited to this distance. I think the mile might be Jimmy's best distance and any wins at or above 2000m simply point to how talented and gutsy he really is. Do I seem him winning this? Well, yes, all evidence certainly suggests that he should, but It will be interesting to see how horses who won last season over 2000m in Group 1 or 2 races go in this race, Red Ruler, Hold it Harvey, and the biggest danger Booming. There are also a handful here who I like the look of, but not sure how well they will handle the WFA conditions, Back in Black and Seaflyte are not without their merits.
My Selections
1st - Jimmy Choux - simply has the talent, ran home strongly over 1600m, is going on to the Cox Plate so should win this.
2nd - Booming - This is his distance, looked good at the end of the Windsor Park Plate, could give Jimmy a tough race.
3rd - Hold it Harvey - from the draw he could find himself in a similar position that he did for the Windsor Park Plate he came home strongly behind two very good in form horses in that race.
4th - Dawn Ghost - tempting to take Red Ruler, but I didn't really like what I saw in Hawkes Bay last start and I don't really want to go chalk, so I think Dawn Ghost who is only carrying 1kg more from a pretty good fifth here last start could be interesting, particularly given all the horses who beat her that day are carrying significantly more today.
Other racing I am interested in from Hawkes Bay starting with the small but talented field in the first race, no doubt a few of these will have their sights set on the New Zealand Cup. Royal Queen in race 3 looks set to complete a Hawkes Bay hat trick, she won so well on the second day it is hard to see her losing this despite the outside barrier draw, she could lead again and we could see a similar performance. Race 5 features He's Remarkable who will be more than a warm favourite if he runs in this race, building towards the Coupland's Bakery Mile no doubt. The Group 3 Tradertracks Stakes could be his destination, however he will face some tough competition in that race, Twlight Savings would appear the one to beat after the way she ran home here last time.
I missed out a very interesting race, but that is because I wanted to focus on it a bit more closely and give you my 3YO Power Rankings.
There are obviously a lot of large races over the year aimed at 3YO's. The thing which makes a racehorse Power Rankings more challenging compared to a Rugby Would Cup Power Rankings is that not all horses are created equal, each has a different goal, there may be 3YO's who have not started a race yet who may be Powerful by Derby time, and there may be 3YO's who although targeting a 1600m race coming up may be more natural sprinters or longer distance horses. So this really comes down to buzz, feel, and general impression of their quality. There should be no suprises who is rated number 1.
Number10 - Savabil - I rate this horse and should normally have it higher, but I can't find any information about where he is and when we might see him again. However based on a strong 2YO campagin he needs to be on this list.
Number 9 - Whoshe - Forgive the last start, had she won she would have been higher on this list, but she looked quality before this.
Number 8 - Artistic - I have already written about her performance in the Bonecrusher Stakes, but it was still impressive.
Number 7 - Estrato - Winner of 3 of 8 including one listed race, raced well in top 2YO company, a winner well in his second start as a 3YO.
Number 6 - Kasumi -Winner of past two, both at listed level.
Number 5 - Testa Secret - Expected to run second to Anabandana last start, and did, can't penalise that, second to number 3 on this list before that, a series of solid performances in big races throughout her career.
Number 4 - Burgundy - Sure he has only one start, but there was a lot of hype about that, he is second favourite for the 2000 Guineas.
Number 3 - Dowager Queen - Won her last 3 in New Zealand, represented herself well in Australia in the winter.
Number 2 - Antonio Lombardo - Won 4 of 10 starts, won very strongly in his only start at age 3.
Number 1 - Anabandana - The top 2 Year Old from last season who already looks like she could be the top 3YO.
So, yes, I think Antonio Lombardo is going to win the Hawkes Bay Guineas, I think Ginner Hart and Prestigious Miss are interesting, they couldn't crack this list because I am not sure they have accomplished enough at a high enough level to be considered Powerful under my interpretation, the other horse from this list in this race is Estrato, he has a tough draw to overcome, but I was impressed how he kept fighting for victory last start, I imagine Peter McKay is pleased with these two 3YO's.
Australian Thoughts
Moonee Valley
The JRA Cup was set to feature Southern Speed which would have been interesting, but it still features an interesting group of horses, I like to see these races as horses start to stand out for the Spring. Innocent Lady is having an Australian start and should be interesting to watch.
The Mangikato Stakes is the interesting one to watch, Sepoy was a horse who made you say "wow!", and More Joyous is clearly class, I am just excited to watch, but think the lighter weighted Sepoy will come out on top.
Zabeelionaire is running in the 7th race. I don't have any thoughts, I just think it is an outstanding name.
Randwick
Both the Epsom and the Metropolitan handicaps should be excellent. I was hoping to see Kings Rose race again, but the field for the Epsom is still top notch. The interesting this about this race is the weight difference between Sincero with 57kgs, and Pinker Pinker carrying 52.5kg. The weights are very interesting, every horse numbered 5 or above is carrying 52.5kg's. The Metrop field has considerable class, this looks like a top class, I am not sure anyone knows what to expect, the winner will deserve this Group 1. Favourites in this race come from the top of the book and the lower weights, it should be very interesting.
I have already shared my thoughts on Dowager Queen, she may be a highly ranked 3YO, but I am not sure she is quite at the class to take out this Group 1 race. If she does she probably goes to the top spot of the next power rankings and really proves her class.
Flemington
I always like the Bart Cummings, I think it is a good build up to the Melbourne Cup and even though on the face of it the main contenders are not present I think a win here could really jump someone up the rankings. Harris Tweed will be weighed down with a massive 60kg. However with Showcause carrying 54kg it is an excellent chance to put his foot forward for the Melbourne Cup, he won the Avondale cup at this weight and with good 3200m form I think he would like to go well in this.
Keep the Peace is back. She has a horrible draw to overcome, and is probably not quite at her best, however she has placed in Group races in Melbourne in the past and I am definitely a fan. Smoulder is another horse I always gravitate to when she runs. I thought she was very unlucky in the Avondale Guineas and possibly could have gone on to do something in the Auckland Derby until she was scratched, I think we would look at her chances very differently had that occurred and is one that could prove her merit in Australia.
The Turnbull Stakes is a good example of what is great about Victorian racing in the spring. We start with nominations and an idea of who will run in the Cox Plate and the big cups, as the spring goes on we get more information about who is in form, who looks good, and who could surprise. This is another one of the races that was taken out by So You Think last year. This is a very strong feild and will reveal a lot more, I have shared my thoughts about some of these runners in the past. This is an excellent field, I imagine that December Draw will be favoured, but wont have it easy when you look at the likes of Southern Speed for whom this may be to far; Glass Harmonium will be liked by many, as will Rekindled Interest; if you like December Draw it is hard not to take a second look at At First Sight; there were a couple of horses who finished off the Underwood greatly in Playing God and Precedence; Linton is probably more suited to this distance than his earlier races this spring; and I have not even mentioned Efficient yet, he will be better for that first start and won this race 2 years (and 2 starts) ago. To pick one I would have to go for Playing God, this draw is much better, and he was unlucky in the running of the Underwood, he will carry 1.5kg less and an extra 200m would be suitable.
Those are my thoughts and what I am looking forward to on this long 'wet' weekend, enjoy the racing!
Monday, 26 September 2011
How long is too long?
I have several questions about what I saw at Ellerslie racecourse on Saturday. Here are the facts, I witnessed all of this in person through slightly intoxicated eyes from the top level of the Ellerslie stand on Saturday. Before Race 5, the Just Juice Bonecrusher Stakes, as the 3YO's were getting loaded into the barriers something happened, it was something I cannot remember seeing happen in the past, but it must be a reasonably frequent occurrence because a spare Bridle was available. The occurrence I refer to; it appeared that the bridle on number 11 Vuela (I am pretty sure it was Vuela) broke (or something happened with it to require a change, I could not hear the commentary at the time), the barrier attendants did a great job of steadying the Filly and getting a rope over her head, fortunately there was another bridle handy and they were able to get this on. As this happened all other horses had been loaded into the barrier stalls and were standing, waiting, except for number 10 Artistic who was walking around calmly; at this point I said to a friend "I would feel very comfortable if I was on number 10 about now.". There was a sizable length delay, the horse seemed reasonably calm throughout, as did all of the horses standing in the barriers, then the race started and Artistic ran home from last for victory, a stand out performance on a day where there certainly seemed to be an edge to those prepared to lead or race on the speed, Vuela meanwhile finished last.
My questions, how much benefit was it for Artistic to be the last into the barrier and not have to stand still in a stall for what seemed like at least 5 minutes? How much did it hinder the chances of other horses to be in a stall for that time? Now the bigger question, should Vuela have been scratched? Knowing that she went on to finish last it might seem obvious, but of course no one knew that at the time. I have seen horses scratched because they refuse to enter the barriers and are causing delay, of course that could also be to prevent injury and unnecessary stress to the horse, in this case the Filly seemed to be calm and was well controlled by the staff present. In lieu of scratching the horse should the other horses have been released from the barriers and reloaded? yes this would have caused further delay, but would it have improved their chances? Was the outcome of this race effected by the delay and the location of the horses at the time?
What can we take away from this race? I guess it depends on how you feel about the questions asked above, Artistic certainly looked impressive, did the benefit of walking around and not cooling down in the barrier improve her chances? I cannot help but feel it did, I am not saying Vuela should have been scratched, but given the circumstances I am not going to take too much out of this race when I make my selections for any of the upcoming 3YO races.
I have been trying to get a feeling for how I feel about any of the 3YO's I saw on Saturday and where they rank, so will come back later in the week with my New Zealand Three Year Old Power Rankings.
In regard to the rest of the day at Ellerslie, I thought it was fantastic, Whips and Spurs once again lived up to expectations, the racing was entertaining, and to finish the day with an All Blacks and Warriors victories was a nice cherry on top.
My questions, how much benefit was it for Artistic to be the last into the barrier and not have to stand still in a stall for what seemed like at least 5 minutes? How much did it hinder the chances of other horses to be in a stall for that time? Now the bigger question, should Vuela have been scratched? Knowing that she went on to finish last it might seem obvious, but of course no one knew that at the time. I have seen horses scratched because they refuse to enter the barriers and are causing delay, of course that could also be to prevent injury and unnecessary stress to the horse, in this case the Filly seemed to be calm and was well controlled by the staff present. In lieu of scratching the horse should the other horses have been released from the barriers and reloaded? yes this would have caused further delay, but would it have improved their chances? Was the outcome of this race effected by the delay and the location of the horses at the time?
What can we take away from this race? I guess it depends on how you feel about the questions asked above, Artistic certainly looked impressive, did the benefit of walking around and not cooling down in the barrier improve her chances? I cannot help but feel it did, I am not saying Vuela should have been scratched, but given the circumstances I am not going to take too much out of this race when I make my selections for any of the upcoming 3YO races.
I have been trying to get a feeling for how I feel about any of the 3YO's I saw on Saturday and where they rank, so will come back later in the week with my New Zealand Three Year Old Power Rankings.
In regard to the rest of the day at Ellerslie, I thought it was fantastic, Whips and Spurs once again lived up to expectations, the racing was entertaining, and to finish the day with an All Blacks and Warriors victories was a nice cherry on top.
Thursday, 22 September 2011
Ellerslie and Whips'n'Spurs 24 September
There is something about attending a race meeting at Ellerslie Racecourse which makes it feel like a big occasion. I always look forward to walking through those old-style-gate-house turnstiles, past the manicured gardens towards the two big stands, excitement building as you jostle your way past the birdcage and the six other people in attendance for that first view of the track where it feels like you have to look up to see it, the bass filled baritone voice of George Simon crackling over the loud speaker, sheltered out of the wind sitting in the sunny stands. It always feels like a bigger occasion where you can rely on strong racing.
This Saturday's Life Education Trust race day would normally be a more causal affair, like the old days (of 5 years ago) I would attempt to entice a group along by bringing a chili-bin with beer and snacks, of course this is no longer allowed (I can understand the Club's point of view, but I still miss it), so now if I had nothing else to do I would simply go along with the Girlfriend for a couple of races, or watch on TV while fighting for the flat remote to flick away from Keeping up with the Kardashians or a Jersey Shore marathon.
However, this Saturday has all the makings of an excellent day out. The racing is not the strongest you will see at Ellerslie this year, but a Whips'n'Spurs party is always a good way to get a group together, to create a festival atmosphere, and to get people involved who would normally not be that interested in the Racing. The Spring Whips and Spurs party is normally reserved for Great Northern day, but the Ellerslie Club has smartly moved it to coincide with the All Blacks vs France match to decide the winner of Pool A in the Rugby World Cup. These are always great events, music, food, drinks to lubricate the social scene, racing and this Saturday Rugby on the big screen after the race day. As a veteran of many Whips and Spurs Parties over the past few years I can say it is always a great day out, and after a quick look at the form guide of both the racing and the rugby, it is safe to say that the racing may be a lot closer than the rugby happening across town.
To help or maybe hinder those attending Whips and Spurs this weekend, here are some thoughts on the races. I have a distinct memory of last years Life Education race day, however after significant Googling I have not actually been able to confirm if any of my memory actually occurred. There are two feature races of the day, both listed races for 3YO's over 1400m, the Bonecrusher Stakes and the Soliloquy Lodge Stakes for the fillies. I recall for this day last year there was a $1,000,000 pick six, although I have been unable to confirm this I am pretty sure of this fact, I also seem to think that there was some kind of bonus on course for placing a bet on the Pick Six over a certain amount, again either Google or my memory has failed me because I have not found confirmation and I am less confident in my memory of this point. I convinced my work colleagues to put together a bit of a syndicate and have a small flutter on the Pick Six to the tune of $100, we went to the pub after work on the Friday and hotly debated the form guide taking our selections on each race. The Bonecrusher stakes was won Mckee trained Hoofit by the smallest of margins , despite this we were still alive. The problem was not until the Soliloquy, it seemed like every Pick Six and most of the punters in the rest of New Zealand were on Dating as an anchor, and after her run the week before it seemed like a logical conclusion; in the end it took only 1 minute and 33 seconds and the hopes of a million dollar pay day were shattered for us and thousands of others when Singapore Sling narrowly beat Dating.
My first impression of the race day is that it will be tough to find winners despite the relatively small fields, in most races you can make a case for 6 or 7 runners, and in others make a case against most of the runners. Obviously there is sill around 48 hours until racing starts, right now the track is listed as a Heavy 10, which will suit a lot of the runners, however with no rain forecast and high winds it is hard to know what to expect for Saturday. With these fields this feels like the kind of day for upsets, or several horses closely grouped around favouritism, I can see this been a long day punting for me personally where I do not expect to do that well.
Race 1 - Newmarket Rotary Club 1200 - Rating 80 over 1200m
Good start to the day, a strong field of sprinters at this level. It is hard to look past Enyaar in this one, always close over her first 4 starts, she has the distance and R80 form as well as experience running in top fields. The one who might surprise or be more likeable if the track does become dry is number 8 Scottish Mist, two top wins on the course during the Christmas Carnival.
1st - 1 - Enyaar
2nd - 5 - Harry's Pal - Racing well at R70, C and D win last start, like the claim in the wet.
3rd - 3 - Cap Eden Roc - Appears to have the form, and will go well fresh, concerned about the wet.
4th - 8 - Scottish Mist
Race 2 - Rotary Club of Auckland East 2400 - Rating 80 over 2400m
I liked the look of the top 4 in the book for this one, in the end I had to take the utla-consistent Magna Carter who has not finished worse than 5th in his last 7 races. I think when you combine the form with the track conditions and track record it just looks like a winner.
1st - 3- Magna Carter
2nd - 2 - Stagehand - 2nd at R90 level last week, won on the course R80 prior to this.
3rd - 1 - Intransigent - Withought the claim I would be more concerned.
4th - 4 - George Neil - First start right handed and first time to Ellerslie, simply seems to be have the next best form.
Race 3 - The Warf Function Centre 2100 - R70 SW+P over 2100m
I didn't like this race at all, I got the impression that a lot of these will be running in R70 races for a while longer; but I guess someone has to win, I ended up circling about 6 of the 12 runners, I narrowed it down to these four.
1st - 4 - Toby Cee - Back in class with an allowance.
2nd - 1 - Sand Jewell - Consistent lead up, but thought the extra weight may hurt.
3rd - 9 - Staxa Stamina - Lightweight, some concern about track conditions but seemed to be going forward in her career.
4th - 12 - Tekeela - Definitely a candidate to get strong support from the Whips and Spurs crowd.
Race 4 - Remuera Fisheries Mitchelson Cup - Open Handicap over 2200m
I have many questions, I go past Remuera Fisheries most days on my way to work, I see a framed picture on the wall of a racehorse in full flight, I have always wondered who the horse is, and who owns that shop. Secondly, who is Mitchelson? Thirdly, does this cup actually exist, or is it a figurative cup to make the race sound cooler.
Either way a strong field is lining up for this "cup", I am very keen to see how Sterling Prince goes, it clearly has had the most success out of this field, but maybe the wet will be too much to overcome. I really like the way that I'm Isaac goes at Ellerslie, 3,1,2*,4,1 in his last 5 starts the 2nd was on this day last year. It was hard to leave out Halls, but there is a big question mark, in 65 starts it has never started at Ellerslie, and only had 3 runs right handed, granted it placed in one of those, but definitely left a question in my mind.
1st - 2 - I'm Isaac
2nd - 7 - The Strutter - A lot to like, the track record, the wet record and the level of competition in recent times.
3rd - 3 - Sterling Prince
4th - 9 - The Missing Link - Also ran in this last year, he won, and thanks to the allowance will only carry 52kg this weekend.
Race 5 - Just Juice Bonecrusher Stakes - (listed) 3YO Set Weights - 1400m
I am not sure a lot of people will be on Fort Lincoln today. His one run in a similar race was troubled, his only other 1400m start was at Group 1 level, and again he just managed to stay within 20 lengths of Anabandana, we all know how good she is. Maybe he is not a 1400m horse, but the last 2 starts at Ellerslie he flew home over 1200m, I think he deserves another look. Maybe it is the Ellerslie factor, of the $597k of stake winnings (most coming from the Karaka Millions) he won as a 2YO, he won $589,700 at Ellerslie. Maybe he is a slow starter, he won 2nd up as a 2YO, but that was in a 4 horse field, he didn't place again until his 5th start; counting last week and a 2nd place in a trial, Fort Lincoln might be ready to take this out. Of the 10 starts, 5 of those have been at listed level or above (including the Karaka Millions which is a major race), I would rather bet on a horse racing at that level than one who might have looked good winning a $5k race at this stage of their respective careers.
1st - 1 - Fort Lincoln
2nd - 3 - Field of Dreams - Consistent in the short career to date, should be able to run 1400m well.
3rd - 2 - Dollario - Winner of 3 who can handle wet tracks, proven over 1400m
4th - 5 - Randall - Winner last start over 1400m
Race 6 - Ray White Real Estate - MDN over 1400m
I am not sure I like the term Real Estate, can they not call it Property? is it so you know it is not Fake Estate? This looks like a pretty strong maiden field today, it seems like there is potential to go up a few grades this spring for a lot of these runners, I think that number 3 Whistling Straights will be the one to break maidens today, although last start was his worst result the consistency he has shown to date is what I am looking at here.
1st - 3 - Whistling Straights
2nd - 2 - Saskee - Looks about the next best, the claim looks like it will help a horse who goes well in slower conditions.
3rd - 9 - Love the consistency over the distance with the claim in this race.
4th - 13 - Lady Gaga- This is the Whips'n'Spurs bet of the day, how many drunk chicks will see this name and have a punt.
Race 7 - Soliloquy Stakes - (listed) 3YO Fillies Set Weights over 1400m
Whoshe might be the top 3YO on display today in Auckland, she has won 3 from 6 including a stakes race at Ellerslie over 1400m, winner of a mixed stakes race last start she should have too much for the rest of these fillies.
1st - 1 Whoshe
2nd - 3 - River Nymph - 3rd in a stakes race last start, seems to need another 200m.
3rd - 11 - Perfect Katch - Looks like an improver who has been looking for a bit more distance
4th - 6 - Ready Steady - Fresh, but up to this class, 1400m should be good, the draw might make life difficult.
Race 8 - Life Education Ambassador Terenzo Bozzone 1200 - Open Handicap over 1200m
A great 1200m race, a lot of form on the course and over the distance in the wet to pick from, making it a hard decision for a race with only a field of 9.
1st - 1 - Rusty Devil - The one to beat, ace draw, amazing in the wet, at Ellerslie and over 1200m.
2nd - 6 - Pure Crusing - Undefeated on the course, seems to win on any surface, in the money 7/10 so far
3rd - 3 - Kaap Kruis - I am glad it is George Simon and not me who has to pronounce this all race.
4th 2 - Art Beat - It is hard to leave out in the wet on this track.
Race 9 - Leila McDonald Rating 90 - Rating 90 over 1600
Only 9 starters for a $30,000 1600m R90 race at Ellerslie? Well they have done well with a high quality field.
1st - 2 - Asgoodasitgets - Tough call, it just looks to be on the rise and capable of winning on the course over the distance. Good 2nd up and only once out of the top 4 in 15 starts.
2nd - 1 - Sircross - Didn't he win this exact race 4 starts back?
3rd - 3 - Headsup - Better for the last start, ran in tough competition all last season, however had best success when he dropped down to R90 and Open races.
4th - 5 - Toughasim - Very good on a wet track, seems to look good over the course and distance.
Race 10 - Kim Hutchison - Fabulous at 50 1400 - Rating 70 over 1400m
I picked his by process of elimination, simply went down crossing of runners who I thought couldn't win this race. Beau Casual is having his 114th start, looking for win number 10, will he get it? most likely not, but I get the impression anything could happen here.
1st - 4 - Mangaroa Flyer - Close in 5 starts, looks like 1600m is too far at this stage.
2nd - 5 - Pogue - How good has Opie Bosson been riding recently? Pogue has been running in top competition, so possibly looks good for a win here.
3rd - 8 - Thornbirds - has placed in last 2 when probably capable of going 200m further.
4th - 10 - Pure Platinum - Looks like an imporver who will suit 1400m.
I cannot wait for this weekend, Whips and Spurs will be awesome, France will lose, and I hope that is not my only correct prediction.
This Saturday's Life Education Trust race day would normally be a more causal affair, like the old days (of 5 years ago) I would attempt to entice a group along by bringing a chili-bin with beer and snacks, of course this is no longer allowed (I can understand the Club's point of view, but I still miss it), so now if I had nothing else to do I would simply go along with the Girlfriend for a couple of races, or watch on TV while fighting for the flat remote to flick away from Keeping up with the Kardashians or a Jersey Shore marathon.
However, this Saturday has all the makings of an excellent day out. The racing is not the strongest you will see at Ellerslie this year, but a Whips'n'Spurs party is always a good way to get a group together, to create a festival atmosphere, and to get people involved who would normally not be that interested in the Racing. The Spring Whips and Spurs party is normally reserved for Great Northern day, but the Ellerslie Club has smartly moved it to coincide with the All Blacks vs France match to decide the winner of Pool A in the Rugby World Cup. These are always great events, music, food, drinks to lubricate the social scene, racing and this Saturday Rugby on the big screen after the race day. As a veteran of many Whips and Spurs Parties over the past few years I can say it is always a great day out, and after a quick look at the form guide of both the racing and the rugby, it is safe to say that the racing may be a lot closer than the rugby happening across town.
To help or maybe hinder those attending Whips and Spurs this weekend, here are some thoughts on the races. I have a distinct memory of last years Life Education race day, however after significant Googling I have not actually been able to confirm if any of my memory actually occurred. There are two feature races of the day, both listed races for 3YO's over 1400m, the Bonecrusher Stakes and the Soliloquy Lodge Stakes for the fillies. I recall for this day last year there was a $1,000,000 pick six, although I have been unable to confirm this I am pretty sure of this fact, I also seem to think that there was some kind of bonus on course for placing a bet on the Pick Six over a certain amount, again either Google or my memory has failed me because I have not found confirmation and I am less confident in my memory of this point. I convinced my work colleagues to put together a bit of a syndicate and have a small flutter on the Pick Six to the tune of $100, we went to the pub after work on the Friday and hotly debated the form guide taking our selections on each race. The Bonecrusher stakes was won Mckee trained Hoofit by the smallest of margins , despite this we were still alive. The problem was not until the Soliloquy, it seemed like every Pick Six and most of the punters in the rest of New Zealand were on Dating as an anchor, and after her run the week before it seemed like a logical conclusion; in the end it took only 1 minute and 33 seconds and the hopes of a million dollar pay day were shattered for us and thousands of others when Singapore Sling narrowly beat Dating.
My first impression of the race day is that it will be tough to find winners despite the relatively small fields, in most races you can make a case for 6 or 7 runners, and in others make a case against most of the runners. Obviously there is sill around 48 hours until racing starts, right now the track is listed as a Heavy 10, which will suit a lot of the runners, however with no rain forecast and high winds it is hard to know what to expect for Saturday. With these fields this feels like the kind of day for upsets, or several horses closely grouped around favouritism, I can see this been a long day punting for me personally where I do not expect to do that well.
Race 1 - Newmarket Rotary Club 1200 - Rating 80 over 1200m
Good start to the day, a strong field of sprinters at this level. It is hard to look past Enyaar in this one, always close over her first 4 starts, she has the distance and R80 form as well as experience running in top fields. The one who might surprise or be more likeable if the track does become dry is number 8 Scottish Mist, two top wins on the course during the Christmas Carnival.
1st - 1 - Enyaar
2nd - 5 - Harry's Pal - Racing well at R70, C and D win last start, like the claim in the wet.
3rd - 3 - Cap Eden Roc - Appears to have the form, and will go well fresh, concerned about the wet.
4th - 8 - Scottish Mist
Race 2 - Rotary Club of Auckland East 2400 - Rating 80 over 2400m
I liked the look of the top 4 in the book for this one, in the end I had to take the utla-consistent Magna Carter who has not finished worse than 5th in his last 7 races. I think when you combine the form with the track conditions and track record it just looks like a winner.
1st - 3- Magna Carter
2nd - 2 - Stagehand - 2nd at R90 level last week, won on the course R80 prior to this.
3rd - 1 - Intransigent - Withought the claim I would be more concerned.
4th - 4 - George Neil - First start right handed and first time to Ellerslie, simply seems to be have the next best form.
Race 3 - The Warf Function Centre 2100 - R70 SW+P over 2100m
I didn't like this race at all, I got the impression that a lot of these will be running in R70 races for a while longer; but I guess someone has to win, I ended up circling about 6 of the 12 runners, I narrowed it down to these four.
1st - 4 - Toby Cee - Back in class with an allowance.
2nd - 1 - Sand Jewell - Consistent lead up, but thought the extra weight may hurt.
3rd - 9 - Staxa Stamina - Lightweight, some concern about track conditions but seemed to be going forward in her career.
4th - 12 - Tekeela - Definitely a candidate to get strong support from the Whips and Spurs crowd.
Race 4 - Remuera Fisheries Mitchelson Cup - Open Handicap over 2200m
I have many questions, I go past Remuera Fisheries most days on my way to work, I see a framed picture on the wall of a racehorse in full flight, I have always wondered who the horse is, and who owns that shop. Secondly, who is Mitchelson? Thirdly, does this cup actually exist, or is it a figurative cup to make the race sound cooler.
Either way a strong field is lining up for this "cup", I am very keen to see how Sterling Prince goes, it clearly has had the most success out of this field, but maybe the wet will be too much to overcome. I really like the way that I'm Isaac goes at Ellerslie, 3,1,2*,4,1 in his last 5 starts the 2nd was on this day last year. It was hard to leave out Halls, but there is a big question mark, in 65 starts it has never started at Ellerslie, and only had 3 runs right handed, granted it placed in one of those, but definitely left a question in my mind.
1st - 2 - I'm Isaac
2nd - 7 - The Strutter - A lot to like, the track record, the wet record and the level of competition in recent times.
3rd - 3 - Sterling Prince
4th - 9 - The Missing Link - Also ran in this last year, he won, and thanks to the allowance will only carry 52kg this weekend.
Race 5 - Just Juice Bonecrusher Stakes - (listed) 3YO Set Weights - 1400m
I am not sure a lot of people will be on Fort Lincoln today. His one run in a similar race was troubled, his only other 1400m start was at Group 1 level, and again he just managed to stay within 20 lengths of Anabandana, we all know how good she is. Maybe he is not a 1400m horse, but the last 2 starts at Ellerslie he flew home over 1200m, I think he deserves another look. Maybe it is the Ellerslie factor, of the $597k of stake winnings (most coming from the Karaka Millions) he won as a 2YO, he won $589,700 at Ellerslie. Maybe he is a slow starter, he won 2nd up as a 2YO, but that was in a 4 horse field, he didn't place again until his 5th start; counting last week and a 2nd place in a trial, Fort Lincoln might be ready to take this out. Of the 10 starts, 5 of those have been at listed level or above (including the Karaka Millions which is a major race), I would rather bet on a horse racing at that level than one who might have looked good winning a $5k race at this stage of their respective careers.
1st - 1 - Fort Lincoln
2nd - 3 - Field of Dreams - Consistent in the short career to date, should be able to run 1400m well.
3rd - 2 - Dollario - Winner of 3 who can handle wet tracks, proven over 1400m
4th - 5 - Randall - Winner last start over 1400m
Race 6 - Ray White Real Estate - MDN over 1400m
I am not sure I like the term Real Estate, can they not call it Property? is it so you know it is not Fake Estate? This looks like a pretty strong maiden field today, it seems like there is potential to go up a few grades this spring for a lot of these runners, I think that number 3 Whistling Straights will be the one to break maidens today, although last start was his worst result the consistency he has shown to date is what I am looking at here.
1st - 3 - Whistling Straights
2nd - 2 - Saskee - Looks about the next best, the claim looks like it will help a horse who goes well in slower conditions.
3rd - 9 - Love the consistency over the distance with the claim in this race.
4th - 13 - Lady Gaga- This is the Whips'n'Spurs bet of the day, how many drunk chicks will see this name and have a punt.
Race 7 - Soliloquy Stakes - (listed) 3YO Fillies Set Weights over 1400m
Whoshe might be the top 3YO on display today in Auckland, she has won 3 from 6 including a stakes race at Ellerslie over 1400m, winner of a mixed stakes race last start she should have too much for the rest of these fillies.
1st - 1 Whoshe
2nd - 3 - River Nymph - 3rd in a stakes race last start, seems to need another 200m.
3rd - 11 - Perfect Katch - Looks like an improver who has been looking for a bit more distance
4th - 6 - Ready Steady - Fresh, but up to this class, 1400m should be good, the draw might make life difficult.
Race 8 - Life Education Ambassador Terenzo Bozzone 1200 - Open Handicap over 1200m
A great 1200m race, a lot of form on the course and over the distance in the wet to pick from, making it a hard decision for a race with only a field of 9.
1st - 1 - Rusty Devil - The one to beat, ace draw, amazing in the wet, at Ellerslie and over 1200m.
2nd - 6 - Pure Crusing - Undefeated on the course, seems to win on any surface, in the money 7/10 so far
3rd - 3 - Kaap Kruis - I am glad it is George Simon and not me who has to pronounce this all race.
4th 2 - Art Beat - It is hard to leave out in the wet on this track.
Race 9 - Leila McDonald Rating 90 - Rating 90 over 1600
Only 9 starters for a $30,000 1600m R90 race at Ellerslie? Well they have done well with a high quality field.
1st - 2 - Asgoodasitgets - Tough call, it just looks to be on the rise and capable of winning on the course over the distance. Good 2nd up and only once out of the top 4 in 15 starts.
2nd - 1 - Sircross - Didn't he win this exact race 4 starts back?
3rd - 3 - Headsup - Better for the last start, ran in tough competition all last season, however had best success when he dropped down to R90 and Open races.
4th - 5 - Toughasim - Very good on a wet track, seems to look good over the course and distance.
Race 10 - Kim Hutchison - Fabulous at 50 1400 - Rating 70 over 1400m
I picked his by process of elimination, simply went down crossing of runners who I thought couldn't win this race. Beau Casual is having his 114th start, looking for win number 10, will he get it? most likely not, but I get the impression anything could happen here.
1st - 4 - Mangaroa Flyer - Close in 5 starts, looks like 1600m is too far at this stage.
2nd - 5 - Pogue - How good has Opie Bosson been riding recently? Pogue has been running in top competition, so possibly looks good for a win here.
3rd - 8 - Thornbirds - has placed in last 2 when probably capable of going 200m further.
4th - 10 - Pure Platinum - Looks like an imporver who will suit 1400m.
I cannot wait for this weekend, Whips and Spurs will be awesome, France will lose, and I hope that is not my only correct prediction.
Monday, 19 September 2011
Jimmy Choux, Anabandana, Lion Tamer and other Saturday thoughts
Jimmy Choux was outstanding on Saturday. This race is probably a fair indication of his form and quality, regardless of what results he achieves in Australia this spring, he will at least enter the country in top form and possibly continuing to improve. He beat Mufhasa, a proven Group 1 winner in outstanding form, Mufhasa probably ran the race many predicted he would won from barrier two, and it was simply not enough to get the best of Jimmy Choux. It also looked like both Hold it Harvey and Wall Street were well placed to gain ground on Mufhasa if they were good enough or if Mufhasa was not at top form, and although Hold it Harvey made up some ground they didn't seem to get too much closer to Mufhasa, maybe Wall Street is not quite at his best but he still ran well for forth. For Jimmy Choux to finish so strongly against this field where his main opponent seemed to do everything right, it has got to be evidence that he is ready to put his best foot forward in Melbourne.
There were a couple of impressive performances by 3YO's on the day. The most impressive was Anabandana, the Filly started as a hot favorite in what appeared to be a challenging field of 3YO Fillies, despite fears she might be under done and targeting bigger races later in the season she asserted her dominance on the field and when jockey Opie Bosson told her to go, she went, I only counted 3 strokes of the whip in the final 200m as she won so comfortably it felt like she was toying with the other horses and could have won by as much has she wanted.
I liked the look of Estrato in the 3YO handicap race, on paper it looked like he was the most proven runner in the race. He performed well as a 2YO winning a listed race relatively early in the season, and performing well in top company throughout most of the year, it looked like this colt had the big race experience to go well here. It looked like he should have won more comfortably than he did, he seemed to still have a lot of fight and energy in the birdcage after the race, but it was a good ride by Sam Spratt to get him to the line and keep him fighting for victory.
The best finish of the day had to be in race six with Guiseppina and Twilight Savings flying home to almost catch Imani. Both horses proved they were of high caliber last year, and Guiseppina seemed to be caught in a bad position throughout the race making the finish more impressive.
Lion Tamer had an outstanding win against a very strong field in the weight for age Underwood Stakes at Caulfield. The race featured Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup, and Melbourne Cup hopefuls but the 2010 Victorian Derby Champion was able to ride along nicely in about 6th, he moved up before the bend and was able to run home impressively for his second Australian Group 1. I don't know what you can take out of this race about his chances for the rest of the spring, he looked fit, he ran home strongly, we know he can go well over more distance, the only horse who seemed to be closing on him was Southern Speed, and maybe Scarlett Lady/Playing God/Precedence if you want to look back further, so it will be interesting to see what he does from here. Certainly, it seems he has impressed the New Zealand TAB he is now into $8 in the Caulield Cup, $14 in the Cox Plate, and $8 favourite in the Melbourne Cup and based on what we know now that all seems fair enough, he is paying slightly more on Betfair but that probably represents the patriotic Kiwi public. Not sure what other take-aways I have from that race, maybe it would take more of an expert than me to get anything out of it, I think if you like any of the top 8 or 9 in that race you are OK to stick with them moving forward, they were not too far away and seemed to all finish pretty strongly, Precedence looked to be fading just before the 200m, and then found another gear in the last 100m. From a New Zealand perspective it just didn't look like Scarlet Lady's day. She seemed to come out of the barrier slow, and then got caught in a position where she couldn't move forward or backward, she finally got a bit more space bit was forced to race a bit wide and then ran on well at the end, maybe a bit more distance and a better start can help, but I wouldn't write her off for later in the spring. Playing God was the other runner who looked to come from a bad position for most of the race and finish off strongly. It was an exciting race which really made it feel like spring was here and I look forward to seeing more of these horses as the spring wears on.
There were a couple of impressive performances by 3YO's on the day. The most impressive was Anabandana, the Filly started as a hot favorite in what appeared to be a challenging field of 3YO Fillies, despite fears she might be under done and targeting bigger races later in the season she asserted her dominance on the field and when jockey Opie Bosson told her to go, she went, I only counted 3 strokes of the whip in the final 200m as she won so comfortably it felt like she was toying with the other horses and could have won by as much has she wanted.
I liked the look of Estrato in the 3YO handicap race, on paper it looked like he was the most proven runner in the race. He performed well as a 2YO winning a listed race relatively early in the season, and performing well in top company throughout most of the year, it looked like this colt had the big race experience to go well here. It looked like he should have won more comfortably than he did, he seemed to still have a lot of fight and energy in the birdcage after the race, but it was a good ride by Sam Spratt to get him to the line and keep him fighting for victory.
The best finish of the day had to be in race six with Guiseppina and Twilight Savings flying home to almost catch Imani. Both horses proved they were of high caliber last year, and Guiseppina seemed to be caught in a bad position throughout the race making the finish more impressive.
Lion Tamer had an outstanding win against a very strong field in the weight for age Underwood Stakes at Caulfield. The race featured Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup, and Melbourne Cup hopefuls but the 2010 Victorian Derby Champion was able to ride along nicely in about 6th, he moved up before the bend and was able to run home impressively for his second Australian Group 1. I don't know what you can take out of this race about his chances for the rest of the spring, he looked fit, he ran home strongly, we know he can go well over more distance, the only horse who seemed to be closing on him was Southern Speed, and maybe Scarlett Lady/Playing God/Precedence if you want to look back further, so it will be interesting to see what he does from here. Certainly, it seems he has impressed the New Zealand TAB he is now into $8 in the Caulield Cup, $14 in the Cox Plate, and $8 favourite in the Melbourne Cup and based on what we know now that all seems fair enough, he is paying slightly more on Betfair but that probably represents the patriotic Kiwi public. Not sure what other take-aways I have from that race, maybe it would take more of an expert than me to get anything out of it, I think if you like any of the top 8 or 9 in that race you are OK to stick with them moving forward, they were not too far away and seemed to all finish pretty strongly, Precedence looked to be fading just before the 200m, and then found another gear in the last 100m. From a New Zealand perspective it just didn't look like Scarlet Lady's day. She seemed to come out of the barrier slow, and then got caught in a position where she couldn't move forward or backward, she finally got a bit more space bit was forced to race a bit wide and then ran on well at the end, maybe a bit more distance and a better start can help, but I wouldn't write her off for later in the spring. Playing God was the other runner who looked to come from a bad position for most of the race and finish off strongly. It was an exciting race which really made it feel like spring was here and I look forward to seeing more of these horses as the spring wears on.
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