Thursday 22 September 2011

Ellerslie and Whips'n'Spurs 24 September

There is something about attending a race meeting at Ellerslie Racecourse which makes it feel like a big occasion. I always look forward to walking through those old-style-gate-house turnstiles, past the manicured gardens towards the two big stands, excitement building as you jostle your way past the birdcage and the six other people in attendance for that first view of the track where it feels like you have to look up to see it, the bass filled baritone voice of George Simon crackling over the loud speaker, sheltered out of the wind sitting in the sunny stands. It always feels like a bigger occasion where you can rely on strong racing.

This Saturday's Life Education Trust race day would normally be a more causal affair, like the old days (of 5 years ago) I would attempt to entice a group along by bringing a chili-bin with beer and snacks, of course this is no longer allowed (I can understand the Club's point of view, but I still miss it), so now if I had nothing else to do I would simply go along with the Girlfriend for a couple of races, or watch on TV while fighting for the flat remote to flick away from Keeping up with the Kardashians or a Jersey Shore marathon.

However, this Saturday has all the makings of an excellent day out. The racing is not the strongest you will see at Ellerslie this year, but a Whips'n'Spurs party is always a good way to get a group together, to create a festival atmosphere, and to get people involved who would normally not be that interested in the Racing. The Spring Whips and Spurs party is normally reserved for Great Northern day, but the Ellerslie Club has smartly moved it to coincide with the All Blacks vs France match to decide the winner of Pool A in the Rugby World Cup. These are always great events, music, food, drinks to lubricate the social scene, racing and this Saturday Rugby on the big screen after the race day. As  a veteran of many Whips and Spurs Parties over the past few years I can say it is always a great day out, and after a quick look at the form guide of both the racing and the rugby, it is safe to say that the racing may be a lot closer than the rugby happening across town.

To help or maybe hinder those attending Whips and Spurs this weekend, here are some thoughts on the races. I have a distinct memory of last years Life Education race day, however after significant Googling I have not actually been able to confirm if any of my memory actually occurred. There are two feature races of the day, both listed races for 3YO's over 1400m, the Bonecrusher Stakes and the Soliloquy Lodge Stakes for the fillies. I recall for this day last year there was a $1,000,000 pick six, although I have been unable to confirm this I am pretty sure of this fact, I also seem to think that there was some kind of bonus on course for placing a bet on the Pick Six over a certain amount, again either Google or my memory has failed me because I have not found confirmation and I am less confident in my memory of this point. I convinced my work colleagues to put together a bit of a syndicate and have a small flutter on the Pick Six to the tune of $100, we went to the pub after work on the Friday and hotly debated the form guide taking our selections on each race. The Bonecrusher stakes was won Mckee trained Hoofit by the smallest of margins , despite this we were still alive. The problem was not until the Soliloquy, it seemed like every Pick Six and most of the punters in the rest of New Zealand were on Dating as an anchor, and after her run the week before it seemed like a logical conclusion; in the end it took only 1 minute and 33 seconds and the hopes of a million dollar pay day were shattered for us and thousands of others when Singapore Sling narrowly beat Dating.

My first impression of the race day is that it will be tough to find winners despite the relatively small fields, in most races you can make a case for 6 or 7 runners, and in others make a case against most of the runners. Obviously there is sill around 48 hours until racing starts, right now the track is listed as a Heavy 10, which will suit a lot of the runners, however with no rain forecast and high winds it is hard to know what to expect for Saturday. With these fields this feels like the kind of day for upsets, or several horses closely grouped around favouritism, I can see this been a long day punting for me personally where I do not expect to do that well.

Race 1 - Newmarket Rotary Club 1200 - Rating 80 over 1200m

Good start to the day, a strong field of sprinters at this level. It is hard to look past Enyaar in this one, always close over her first 4 starts, she has the distance and R80 form as well as experience running in top fields. The one who might surprise or be more likeable if the track does become dry is number 8 Scottish Mist, two top wins on the course during the Christmas Carnival.

1st - 1 - Enyaar
2nd - 5 - Harry's Pal - Racing well at R70, C and D win last start, like the claim in the wet.
3rd - 3 - Cap Eden Roc - Appears to have the form, and will go well fresh, concerned about the wet.
4th - 8 - Scottish Mist

Race 2 - Rotary Club of Auckland East 2400 - Rating 80 over 2400m

I liked the look of the top 4 in the book for this one, in the end I had to take the utla-consistent Magna Carter who has not finished worse than 5th in his last 7 races. I think when you combine the form with the track conditions and track record it just looks like a winner.

1st - 3- Magna Carter
2nd - 2 - Stagehand - 2nd  at R90 level last week, won on the course R80 prior to this.
3rd - 1 - Intransigent - Withought the claim I would be more concerned.
4th - 4 - George Neil -  First start right handed and first time to Ellerslie, simply seems to be have the next best form.

Race 3 - The Warf Function Centre 2100 - R70 SW+P over 2100m

I didn't like this race at all, I got the impression that a lot of these will be running in R70 races for a while longer; but I guess someone has to win, I ended up circling about 6 of the 12 runners, I narrowed it down to these four. 

1st - 4 - Toby Cee - Back in class with an allowance.
2nd - 1 - Sand Jewell - Consistent lead up, but thought the extra weight may hurt.
3rd - 9 - Staxa Stamina - Lightweight, some concern about track conditions but seemed to be going forward in her career.
4th - 12 - Tekeela - Definitely a candidate to get strong support from the Whips and Spurs crowd.

Race 4 - Remuera Fisheries Mitchelson Cup - Open Handicap over 2200m

I have many questions, I go past Remuera Fisheries most days on my way to work, I see a framed picture on the wall of a racehorse in full flight, I have always wondered who the horse is, and who owns that shop. Secondly, who is Mitchelson? Thirdly, does this cup actually exist, or is it a figurative cup to make the race sound cooler.
Either way a strong field is lining up for this "cup", I am very keen to see how Sterling Prince goes, it clearly has had the most success out of this field, but maybe the wet will be too much to overcome. I really like the way that I'm Isaac goes at Ellerslie, 3,1,2*,4,1 in his last 5 starts the 2nd was on this day last year. It was hard to leave out Halls, but there is a big question mark, in 65 starts it has never started at Ellerslie, and only had 3 runs right handed, granted it placed in one of those, but definitely left a question in my mind.

1st - 2 - I'm Isaac
2nd - 7 - The Strutter - A lot to like, the track record, the wet record and the level of competition in recent times.
3rd - 3 - Sterling Prince
4th - 9 - The Missing Link - Also ran in this last year, he won, and thanks to the allowance will only carry 52kg this weekend.

Race 5  - Just Juice Bonecrusher Stakes - (listed) 3YO Set Weights - 1400m

I am not sure a lot of people will be on Fort Lincoln today. His one run in a similar race was troubled, his only other 1400m start was at Group 1 level, and again he just managed to stay within 20 lengths of Anabandana, we all know how good she is. Maybe he is not a 1400m horse, but the last 2 starts at Ellerslie he flew home over 1200m, I think he deserves another look. Maybe it is the Ellerslie factor, of the $597k of stake winnings (most coming from the Karaka Millions) he won as a 2YO, he won $589,700 at Ellerslie. Maybe he is a slow starter, he won 2nd up as a 2YO, but that was in a 4 horse field, he didn't place again until his 5th start; counting last week and a 2nd place in a trial, Fort Lincoln might be ready to take this out. Of the 10 starts, 5 of those have been at listed level or above (including the Karaka Millions which is a major race), I would rather bet on a horse racing at that level than one who might have looked good winning a $5k race at this stage of their respective careers.

1st - 1 - Fort Lincoln
2nd - 3 - Field of Dreams - Consistent in the short career to date, should be able to run 1400m well.
3rd - 2 - Dollario - Winner of 3 who can handle wet tracks, proven over 1400m
4th - 5 - Randall - Winner last start over 1400m

Race 6 - Ray White Real Estate - MDN over 1400m

I am not sure I like the term Real Estate, can they not call it Property? is it so you know it is not Fake Estate? This looks like a pretty strong maiden field today, it seems like there is potential to go up a few grades this spring for a lot of these runners, I think that number 3 Whistling Straights will be the one to break maidens today, although last start was his worst result the consistency he has shown to date is what I am looking at here.

1st - 3 - Whistling Straights
2nd - 2 - Saskee - Looks about the next best, the claim looks like it will help a horse who goes well in slower conditions.
3rd - 9 - Love the consistency over the distance with the claim in this race.
4th - 13 - Lady Gaga- This is the Whips'n'Spurs bet of the day, how many drunk chicks will see this name and have a punt.

Race 7 - Soliloquy Stakes - (listed) 3YO Fillies Set Weights over 1400m

Whoshe might be the top 3YO on display today in Auckland, she has won 3 from 6 including a stakes race at Ellerslie over 1400m, winner of a mixed stakes race last start she should have too much for the rest of these fillies.

1st - 1 Whoshe
2nd - 3 - River Nymph - 3rd in a stakes race last start, seems to need another 200m.
3rd - 11 - Perfect Katch - Looks like an improver who has been looking for a bit more distance
4th - 6 - Ready Steady - Fresh, but up to this class, 1400m should be good, the draw might make life difficult.

Race 8 - Life Education Ambassador Terenzo Bozzone 1200 - Open Handicap over 1200m

A great 1200m race, a lot of form on the course and over the distance in the wet to pick from, making it a hard decision for a race with only a field of 9.

1st - 1 - Rusty Devil - The one to beat, ace draw, amazing in the wet, at Ellerslie and over 1200m.
2nd - 6 - Pure Crusing - Undefeated on the course, seems to win on any surface, in the money 7/10 so far
3rd - 3 - Kaap Kruis - I am glad it is George Simon and not me who has to pronounce this all race.
4th 2 - Art Beat - It is hard to leave out in the wet on this track.

Race 9 - Leila McDonald Rating 90 - Rating 90 over 1600

Only 9 starters for a $30,000 1600m R90 race at Ellerslie? Well they have done well with a high quality field.

1st - 2 - Asgoodasitgets - Tough call, it just looks to be on the rise and capable of winning on the course over the distance. Good 2nd up and only once out of the top 4 in 15 starts.
2nd - 1 - Sircross - Didn't he win this exact race 4 starts back?

3rd - 3 - Headsup - Better for the last start, ran in tough competition all last season, however had best success when he dropped down to R90 and Open races.
4th - 5 - Toughasim - Very good on a wet track, seems to look good over the course and distance.

Race 10 - Kim Hutchison - Fabulous at 50 1400 - Rating 70 over 1400m

I picked his by process of elimination, simply went down crossing of runners who I thought couldn't win this race. Beau Casual is having his 114th start, looking for win number 10, will he get it? most likely not, but I get the impression anything could happen here.

1st - 4 - Mangaroa Flyer - Close in 5 starts, looks like 1600m is too far at this stage.
2nd - 5 - Pogue - How good has Opie Bosson been riding recently? Pogue has been running in top competition, so possibly looks good for a win here.
3rd - 8 - Thornbirds - has placed in last 2 when probably capable of going 200m further.
4th - 10 - Pure Platinum - Looks like an imporver who will suit 1400m.

I cannot wait for this weekend, Whips and Spurs will be awesome, France will lose, and I hope that is not my only correct prediction.





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