Spring Notes - 9 September 2012

After digesting a good portion of the racing action from New Zealand and Australia on Saturday I went back and zipped through all of the action again on Sunday to figure out what I learned about some of the major contenders for the big races this Spring. My comments for New Zealand races are a little more thought out, my comments on Australian races are almost exactly what I jotted down as I watched them and replayed them. All price quotes are per the New Zealand TAB.

Auckland

The most notable race was the JRA trophy, this race featured Shez Sinsational and a host of other runners who are likely to show up in feature races in the next few months.

Shez Sinational - 1400m is always going to be slightly shorter than ideal, handicap conditions suited some of her rivals, and the wet track (as we discovered in the Nathan's Memorial) was probably not going to suit. I am not sure we will quite see her at her best in the Windsor, and last year it took her a few starts to get that win. We probably saw the performance we needed to see from her, a battling run in unsuitable conditions, as soon as the races get closer to 2000m she will be a big danger.

Current odds - Windsor Park Plate - $15, Spring Classic $5


Full of Spirit - looked very good when fresh up. She seems to handle all track conditions well, so should be solid over more distance for the rest of the spring. She is not currently nominated for anything in Australia (as far as I can see, but it looks like she will head that way), her only NZ nomination is the Couplands bakery mile in which you would expect her to be a go of chance.

Postmans Daughter - a favourite of mine, one who always seems to keep fighting. She looked positive again over the weekend, possibly faded relative to Full of Spirit over the last 50m but was strong against all others. She had the benefit of a great trip. Looks like another promising season ahead for her.

Current odds - Windsor Park Plate $21 (look for place odds on the day), Spring Classic $14 (Value)

Atom Cat - A year ago he was in the WPP, this year he is not nominated for any of the big features yet, despite the fact the conditions may have assisted him, he finished off this race very strongly despite not getting much luck in the straight.

Carrick - Had to work hard to get into a position to make a run between the 600m and 400m marks, but not that much harder than Full of Spirit worked for her run. He finished off reasonably strongly but possibly faded over the final 150m. He has performed on a slow track in the past, he is possibly looking for more distance (although his two wins have been over 1200m and 1400m). He was only carrying 55kg, this is a bit of a concern heading into a WFA race where he would meet the likes of Postman's Daughter and Shez Sinsational relatively worse off.

Current odds - Windsor - $15 (hard to have), Spring Classic $10 (will have to improve, prefer Postmans Daughter at odds)

3YO's

Tough day to judge them, the track was not great. These conditions are often what we see in Canterbury in November, so it is probably worth taking notes.

Twilight Granita - I loved the run, how much extra ground did she cover? she was racing 4-5 wide at points around the bend. She just kept giving to get there and win. She has been consistent, seems to handle all conditions well, and a step in distance shouldn't hurt.She is nominated for the 1000 guineas, but odds are not yet released.

Kisses - Pretty strong fighting run for second. Not currently nominated, but seems to be the consistent type who is improving with each start.

Hollywood Angel - Horrible start, but she chased them down nicely and showed a strong finish into 6th, she most likely could have won without the bad luck. She is nominated for both Guineas and should be a threat.

Comical Lass - Kept closing into 4th. Seems to perform well on rain effected tracks (which is all she has seen so far).

Hazel - I expected better, she was not really seen. Definitely one to look at on a better track to see how she goes. Should improve 2nd up.

Liberating - Improved with racing before the second in the Matamata Breeders at age two. Looks like she will need a couple of starts this prep before she is at her best.

Ray's Girl - Seemed to keep finishing well after a poor start. Improved with racing last prep, may have been a bit too wet.

Snow Line - Used a bit of energy during the run, but I didn't see any justification for the pre-race price.

Warhorse - I am happy to forgive the favourite and suggest that he didn't handle the conditions when he faded late.  He was 6th in the Wentwood Grange before winning a Group 3 last year, so I think we will see him improve into his next start.

Move Faster - I liked the late run of Swiper the Fox, but these two were basically side by side on the bend. Swiper the Fox unwound late, Move Faster accelerated consistently to win nicely. Move faster is yet to see a good track, but looks to be one to keep an eye on throughout the spring.

Batman - Didn't get the best trip, but ran home well living up to the trial form.

Swiper the Fox - Big finishing burst, had to work around the bend, will be stronger over more grounds. I think the conditions suited him. 

Freedom - Worked hard to find a place to settle, but did find a handy position. Didn't show much at the finish, probably related to the conditions.

Hayleys Comet - Was far off them when he got a chance to run, but he did seem to come home pretty well, probably not the worst effort on display.


Australia - Sydney

Ming Dynasty
Magic Shaft - Didn't get a lot of luck, wide and probably over raced slightly before fading towards the end. Will need to improve to figure over 2000m. Probably hurt by 59kg in handicap conditions.

Current Odds - Spring Championship Stakes $31 
Also Nominated - Caulfield Guineas

Overall I liked what I saw from all of the first 5 finishers, certainly the winner Tatra looked good and carried 58.5kg, and Honorius had a pretty strong finish into Third.

Current Odds
Spring Championship Stake
Tatra $9
Honorius $14
Proverb $14
Rowie $18
Sumarand $18

Golden Rose
Sumarand $41

Chelmsford Stakes
Danleigh was great in winning, and Secret admirer was a strong second. Lights of heaven didn't seem to do a lot, but will improve over more distance and in handicap conditions. Maules Creek showed a decent finish into 5th.

Current odds
Danleigh - Epsom $21 (Hard to have in a Handicap)
Secret Admirer -  Epsom $11, Caulfield Cup $41, Cox Plate $21
Lights of Heaven - The Metropolitan $16, Caulfield Cup $31, Cox Plate $51, Melbourne Cup $51
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31, Caulfield Cup $101

Furious Stakes
Pussy Willow - Didn't seem like a great run, she was probably hurt by the pace and never really got into the race.

The first three (Dear Demi, Meidung, and Jade Marauder) all comfortably pulled away from the field, and looked good in their relative positions. Dear Demi won reasonably well, but all three impressed.

Current Odds
Pussy Willow - Nominated 1000 Guineas, will need to improve
Dear Demi - Golden Rose $26
Meidung - Golden Rose $26
Jade Marauder - - Golden Rose $26

Last at Sydney
Quintessenial - As good as a last can be (actually finished second last), certainly didn't get all the favours in the running and probably faded when he got blocked going for a run. I would forgive this run and look for value next start over more distance. 
Epsom -$51
Caulfield Cup - $31
Melbourne Cup - $101

Australia - Melbourne
Lets Elope
Zurella - Awesome performance. She really had to fight hard for a run, and looked great when she got one. 55kg under handicap conditions, but as the races get harder she might not take too much of a penalty relative to the other runners she will face. Despite her second in the Oaks and strong Derby run, I felt that the 1400-1600m range was always her most suited distance. I expect she is probably heading to a Caulfield Cup, but she could also prove dangerous in a Myer Classic or Emirates Mile type race.

(Miss) Artistic - Not much between the Ritchie stablemates in the Oaks, but Artistic won, then had some success in Queensland and ended up carrying far more weight over the weekend. Still it was a pretty good performance. She will get better over more ground.

Hi Belle, kept on fighting into second. Lady Melksham fought well into fifth. Yosei unwound fairly late to beat Artistic and finish 6th.

Zurella - Caulfield Cup $31, Melbourne Cup $41
Artistic - Caulfield Cup $61 (good odds, she will improve), Melbourne Cup $101
Yosei - Caulfield Cup $151, Epsom $16, Cox Plate $101

Danehill Stakes
Snitzerland has an awesome name and was very impressive pulling away for victory after struggling for a run. Thought the first three were all pretty good and Swift Exit finished strongly for 5th at big odds.

Makybe Diva
The pace looked a little slow, but it was still an impressive win by Southern Speed to hold out the fast finishing Manighar. Lots of contenders here, the most notable Moudre running well and finishing third. December Draw was possibly a little unlucky, but ran on reasonably well. Efficient travelled wide and just didn't have a lot of finish. Moyuran picked up with pace over the last 100m. Dance With Her finished well late. Second Effort looked very good late coming from wide on the track (I think, I cant read my notes here).
The ones I would watch most closely are probably ones you already know to watch Manighar, Southern Speed, and I would like to see the improvement Second Effort takes from this.

Current Odds
December Draw- Caulfield Cup $26, Melbourne Cup $21, Cox Plate $26
Dance With Her - The Metropolitan $61, Caulfield Cup $101, Melbourne Cup $81
Efficient - The Metropolitan $21 (hard to recommend, will improve over more distance), Caulfield Cup $51, Melbourne Cup $41, Cox Plate $81
Manighar - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $14
Moudre  - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $31, Cox Plate $51
Moyuran - The Metropolitan $26, Caulfield Cup $41, Melbourne Cup $51, Cox Plate $101
Southern Speed - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $21

Bobbie Lewis Quality
I think Anabandana is done, I was actually surprised to see her racing, I thought she had retired last year.
Mosheen will be better over more distance.

Sofitel Handicap
I thought the winner Excluded won very well and was pretty happy with what I saw from the first three (Exceptionally and Prizum).
Innocent Lady - was pretty average, she just faded on the bend.
The Jungle Boy - Had a very nice run, but didn't show much when it was time to really race.
Single Minded - Probably lasted 100m more than Innocent Lady. Will improve with more distance.

Current Odds
Excluded - The Metropolitan $18, Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $51
Exceptionally - Melbourne Cup $61
Single Minded - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $81 (certainly capable if makes the field)