After digesting a good portion of the racing action from New Zealand
and Australia on Saturday I went back and zipped through all of the
action again on Sunday to figure out what I learned about some of the
major contenders for the big races this Spring. My comments for New
Zealand races are a little more thought out, my comments on Australian
races are almost exactly what I jotted down as I watched them and
replayed them. All price quotes are per the New Zealand TAB.
Auckland
The
most notable race was the JRA trophy, this race featured Shez
Sinsational and a host of other runners who are likely to show up in
feature races in the next few months.
Shez Sinational -
1400m is always going to be slightly shorter than ideal, handicap
conditions suited some of her rivals, and the wet track (as we
discovered in the Nathan's Memorial) was probably not going to suit. I
am not sure we will quite see her at her best in the Windsor, and last
year it took her a few starts to get that win. We probably saw the
performance we needed to see from her, a battling run in unsuitable
conditions, as soon as the races get closer to 2000m she will be a big
danger.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate - $15, Spring Classic $5
Full
of Spirit - looked very good when fresh up. She seems to handle all
track conditions well, so should be solid over more distance for the
rest of the spring. She is not currently nominated for anything in
Australia (as far as I can see, but it looks like she will head that way), her only NZ nomination is the Couplands bakery mile in which you would expect her to be a go of chance.
Postmans
Daughter - a favourite of mine, one who always seems to keep fighting.
She looked positive again over the weekend, possibly faded relative to
Full of Spirit over the last 50m but was strong against all others. She
had the benefit of a great trip. Looks like another promising season
ahead for her.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate $21 (look for place odds on the day), Spring Classic $14 (Value)
Atom
Cat - A year ago he was in the WPP, this year he is not nominated for
any of the big features yet, despite the fact the conditions may have
assisted him, he finished off this race very strongly despite not getting
much luck in the straight.
Carrick - Had to work hard to
get into a position to make a run between the 600m and 400m marks, but
not that much harder than Full of Spirit worked for her run. He finished off reasonably strongly
but possibly faded over the final 150m. He has performed on a slow
track in the past, he is possibly looking for more distance (although
his two wins have been over 1200m and 1400m). He was only carrying
55kg, this is a bit of a concern heading into a WFA race where he would
meet the likes of Postman's Daughter and Shez Sinsational relatively
worse off.
Current odds - Windsor - $15 (hard to have), Spring Classic $10 (will have to improve, prefer Postmans Daughter at odds)
3YO's
Tough
day to judge them, the track was not great. These conditions
are often what we see in Canterbury in November, so it is probably worth
taking notes.
Twilight Granita - I loved the run, how much
extra ground did she cover? she was racing 4-5 wide at points around the
bend. She just kept giving to get there and win. She has been
consistent, seems to handle all conditions well, and a step in distance
shouldn't hurt.She is nominated for the 1000 guineas, but odds are not
yet released.
Kisses - Pretty strong fighting run for
second. Not currently nominated, but seems to be the consistent type who
is improving with each start.
Hollywood Angel -
Horrible start, but she chased them down nicely and showed a strong
finish into 6th, she most likely could have won without the bad luck.
She is nominated for both Guineas and should be a threat.
Comical Lass - Kept closing into 4th. Seems to perform well on rain effected tracks (which is all she has seen so far).
Hazel
- I expected better, she was not really seen. Definitely one to look at
on a better track to see how she goes. Should improve 2nd up.
Liberating
- Improved with racing before the second in the Matamata Breeders at
age two. Looks like she will need a couple of starts this prep before she is at her best.
Ray's Girl - Seemed to keep finishing well after a poor start. Improved with racing last prep, may have been a bit too wet.
Snow Line - Used a bit of energy during the run, but I didn't see any justification for the pre-race price.
Warhorse
- I am happy to forgive the favourite and suggest that he didn't handle
the conditions when he faded late. He was 6th in the Wentwood Grange
before winning a Group 3 last year, so I think we will see him improve
into his next start.
Move Faster - I liked the late
run of Swiper the Fox, but these two were basically side by side on the
bend. Swiper the Fox unwound late, Move Faster accelerated consistently
to win nicely. Move faster is yet to see a good track, but looks to be
one to keep an eye on throughout the spring.
Batman - Didn't get the best trip, but ran home well living up to the trial form.
Swiper the Fox - Big finishing burst, had to work around the bend, will be stronger over more grounds. I think the conditions suited him.
Freedom
- Worked hard to find a place to settle, but did find a handy position.
Didn't show much at the finish, probably related to the conditions.
Hayleys
Comet - Was far off them when he got a chance to run, but he did seem
to come home pretty well, probably not the worst effort on display.
Australia - Sydney
Ming Dynasty
Magic
Shaft - Didn't get a lot of luck, wide and probably over raced slightly
before fading towards the end. Will need to improve to figure over
2000m. Probably hurt by 59kg in handicap conditions.
Current Odds - Spring Championship Stakes $31
Also Nominated - Caulfield Guineas
Overall
I liked what I saw from all of the first 5 finishers, certainly the
winner Tatra looked good and carried 58.5kg, and Honorius had a pretty
strong finish into Third.
Current Odds
Spring Championship Stake
Tatra $9
Honorius $14
Proverb $14
Rowie $18
Sumarand $18
Golden Rose
Sumarand $41
Chelmsford Stakes
Danleigh
was great in winning, and Secret admirer was a strong second. Lights of
heaven didn't seem to do a lot, but will improve over more distance and
in handicap conditions. Maules Creek showed a decent finish into 5th.
Current odds
Danleigh - Epsom $21 (Hard to have in a Handicap)
Secret Admirer - Epsom $11, Caulfield Cup $41, Cox Plate $21
Lights of Heaven - The Metropolitan $16, Caulfield Cup $31, Cox Plate $51, Melbourne Cup $51
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31, Caulfield Cup $101
Furious Stakes
Pussy Willow - Didn't seem like a great run, she was probably hurt by the pace and never really got into the race.
The
first three (Dear Demi, Meidung, and Jade Marauder) all comfortably
pulled away from the field, and looked good in their relative positions.
Dear Demi won reasonably well, but all three impressed.
Current Odds
Pussy Willow - Nominated 1000 Guineas, will need to improve
Dear Demi - Golden Rose $26
Meidung - Golden Rose $26
Jade Marauder - - Golden Rose $26
Last at Sydney
Quintessenial
- As good as a last can be (actually finished second last), certainly didn't get all the favours in the
running and probably faded when he got blocked going for a run. I would forgive this run
and look for value next start over more distance.
Epsom -$51
Caulfield Cup - $31
Melbourne Cup - $101
Australia - Melbourne
Lets Elope
Zurella
- Awesome performance. She really had to fight hard for a run, and
looked great when she got one. 55kg under handicap conditions, but as
the races get harder she might not take too much of a penalty relative
to the other runners she will face. Despite her second in the Oaks and
strong Derby run, I felt that the 1400-1600m range was always her most
suited distance. I expect she is probably heading to a Caulfield Cup,
but she could also prove dangerous in a Myer Classic or Emirates Mile
type race.
(Miss) Artistic - Not much between the
Ritchie stablemates in the Oaks, but Artistic won, then had some success
in Queensland and ended up carrying far more weight over the weekend.
Still it was a pretty good performance. She will get better over more
ground.
Hi Belle, kept on fighting into second. Lady
Melksham fought well into fifth. Yosei unwound fairly late to beat
Artistic and finish 6th.
Zurella - Caulfield Cup $31, Melbourne Cup $41
Artistic - Caulfield Cup $61 (good odds, she will improve), Melbourne Cup $101
Yosei - Caulfield Cup $151, Epsom $16, Cox Plate $101
Danehill Stakes
Snitzerland
has an awesome name and was very impressive pulling away for victory
after struggling for a run. Thought the first three were all pretty good
and Swift Exit finished strongly for 5th at big odds.
Makybe Diva
The
pace looked a little slow, but it was still an impressive win by
Southern Speed to hold out the fast finishing Manighar. Lots of
contenders here, the most notable Moudre running well and finishing
third. December Draw was possibly a little unlucky, but ran on
reasonably well. Efficient travelled wide and just didn't have a lot of
finish. Moyuran picked up with pace over the last 100m. Dance With Her
finished well late. Second Effort looked very good late coming from wide
on the track (I think, I cant read my notes here).
The ones I
would watch most closely are probably ones you already know to watch
Manighar, Southern Speed, and I would like to see the improvement Second
Effort takes from this.
Current Odds
December Draw- Caulfield Cup $26, Melbourne Cup $21, Cox Plate $26
Dance With Her - The Metropolitan $61, Caulfield Cup $101, Melbourne Cup $81
Efficient - The Metropolitan $21 (hard to recommend, will improve over more distance), Caulfield Cup $51, Melbourne Cup $41, Cox Plate $81
Manighar - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $14
Moudre - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $31, Cox Plate $51
Moyuran - The Metropolitan $26, Caulfield Cup $41, Melbourne Cup $51, Cox Plate $101
Southern Speed - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $21
Bobbie Lewis Quality
I think Anabandana is done, I was actually surprised to see her racing, I thought she had retired last year.
Mosheen will be better over more distance.
Sofitel Handicap
I
thought the winner Excluded won very well and was pretty happy with
what I saw from the first three (Exceptionally and Prizum).
Innocent Lady - was pretty average, she just faded on the bend.
The Jungle Boy - Had a very nice run, but didn't show much when it was time to really race.
Single Minded - Probably lasted 100m more than Innocent Lady. Will improve with more distance.
Current Odds
Excluded - The Metropolitan $18, Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $51
Exceptionally - Melbourne Cup $61
Single Minded - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $81 (certainly capable if makes the field)
Showing posts with label WFA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label WFA. Show all posts
Monday, 10 September 2012
Thursday, 8 March 2012
James McDonald's Quest for the Cup week Sweep
This is now a story. There was always a possibility it would become one and in some ways the two Group 1's McDonald has won were the easier of the two he will face this week. They were the ones he was probably expected to win. In other ways they were harder, there was enough that went wrong before and during those races that the victories were remarkable. He will ride Scarlett Lady and Rollout the Carpet on Saturday in his quest to sweep the Auckland Cup week Group 1's.
James McDonald calls Ellerslie his favourite track. I don't think anyone would disagree with him. Durham Town, Silent Achiever, Fix, Peridot, Between the Beats, and Shez Sensational have won this Auckland Cup week with him on board. Fix was another in a long line of wins in the first race of the day at Ellerslie yesterday. His strike rate is currently a ridiculous 4.41, that should mean with the nine rides he currently has booked for Saturday there are two winners in that group, I am sure the ones he wants the most are the Diamond Stakes and the New Zealand Stakes.
The New Zealand Derby last Saturday, James McDonald was riding Silent Achiever. The ground was possibly not as suitable as they would have liked, there was not a lot of pace in the race for Silent Achiever a horse who typically likes to race towards the back of the pack. It was evident from the relief shown by Roger James when they interviewed him after the victory that although he felt he had the horse with the most talent, he was not sure if things were lining up exactly how he wanted. After the race James McDonald admitted he didn't ride exactly to instructions and Silent Achiever slipped leaving the gates, judging from the after race comments analysts felt that possibly Silent Achiever hit the front earlier than she normally would have. What I liked about the ride was the point about 1400m to go when she was third from last and James McDonald moved her up, three wide, but closer to the pace. As they hit the 800m mark there is probably only 9 runners ahead of him, it was an excellent place for him to be when they started the sprint for home. As it was she won comfortably, but if he had been further back who knows, maybe she gets blocked or simply out sprinted. He really seemed to always have that race under his control from about 350m, every time another runner battled closer he asked her for more and she gave it.
In the Auckland Cup yesterday, as trainer Allan Sharrock said in his interview after the race "what else could go wrong" (in the video in the link, you need to sign up to view it, but it is free). He even basically said that the rain that had started about an hour before the race had put him off having a big bet on the horse because of the uncertainty in the conditions. Given what we saw on Saturday it would be hard not to be concerned at that point. During the running of the race George Simon made several comments about the position of Shez Sensational. "the favourite's under a ride" was his call as James McDonald went to work on her about 450m to go, he was probably one of the first Jockeys to make a move in the race. He then had to work a bit to find a hole, but Shez Sensational responded when he finally did. George Simon mentions she is warming up as they pass the 300m mark, but she really hits her stride with about 200m to go and just had too much top speed chasing down Spiro on the line.
Clearly we are looking at a very talented Filly and Mare, but everything didn't go their way, and those were very strong rides to allow the horses to show their best.
Now the question remains, can he go four for four?
The next Auckland Cup week Group 1 is the first Group 1 for the Two year olds the Diamond Stakes over 1200m. James McDonald is riding equal second favourite Rollout the carpet. There is a lot of talent in this race when you look at Choice Bro, Warhorse, Travino, Silk Pins and Croatia amongst others.
Choice Bro has shown eye catching finishes in the Karaka Million (fourth) and winning over Ockhams Razor last start at Taranaki. He has had the benefit of good draws to date and has performed best on a good track, he may not have either on Saturday. The blinkers which came on last start seemed to make a difference. He will be finishing big, but probably down the outside as opposed to the inside as in recent starts.
Warhorse is having his first start in over a month, however he has tended to race with these kind of gaps to date in his career so that should not effect him. A Group 3 winner with talent, he really charged home in the Karaka Million. He is already establishing a strong record at Ellerslie and his win there on New Years day was on a rain effected track. He has the benefit of a better draw so might be able to start his run from a handier position this time.
Travino had his first start back in New Zealand in the Matamata Slipper two weeks ago. The dead track gave him only his second non-win in the New Zealand since his first start (on a slow track). That was his first start in about 6 weeks, his wins have come with 14days, 14days and 21days rest, so expect a better showing here. He has drawn barrier one which should allow him to stay handy $9 fixed odds seems pretty good value if the rain stays away.
Croatia is having his third start. After winning on debut he was able to show a big finish to behind Irish Rebel and Magic Shaft. He has to be confided a contender here.
Mai Guru is having his first start since his fifth in the Karaka Million. I was slightly surprised by that fifth, he seemed to outperform other horses who I might have expected better from. This race is just stacked and he will have to show improvement to finish ahead of Silk Pins, Choice Bro, and Warhorse.
Roof of Reckoning is a maiden runner who was able to show something at Matamata, hard to know if possibly wet ground might help. He looks reasonably talented, but there are some classy runners to beat here.
King Zeus is having his second start and will go from barrier 6. He seemed to improve with trialing and was favourite in his first start. He was beaten by Fix over 1000m, who went on to have a good win on Auckland Cup day. King Zeus showed good fight but was worn down late. I suspect he may be fitter for the run and 1200m may suit.
Rollout the Carpet for James McDonald has drawn 11, but is coming off a form line which looks the same in the race book (1 and 1 been the results of his last two runs). The second win was in the Matamata Breeders Stakes at Group 2 level. She has beaten the fillies, so the question becomes can she beat the boys too? She is good and has looked it in her last two starts. Wetness underfoot does not appear to be an issue. Barrier number 11 may not be a problem if she gets out as well as she has recently, she will want to be handy and in a position to lead them home.
Seleno was very eye catching at New Plymouth last start, she was wide and back and simply flew home. If the track is wet it will suit and you suspect that 2nd up may help. The draw should suit and if she is closer to them starting her run, look out!
Silk Pins was great in the Karaka Million. Before the Karaka Million her record is deceiving, she didn't get a lot of luck in those races. Was third in the Matamata breeders stakes and didn't look as good that day. Happy to give her a chance, but I have a concern on wet ground based on the slow track New Years day at Ellerslie.
Soriano is currently undefeated. She was a winner late last week at Te Rapa. She is a bit of an enigma here, the win looked very good, but there is a lot of solid exposed form here.
Coat du Roan was good when 6th at Taranaki, was also unlucky when caught up by Ockham's Razor. Throw that race out and there is less to go on. She is almost certainly better than a $41 chance, but you could only take her on potential. Chateauneuf Dupape ran third in this race last year, as that is in the Rhone region maybe a horse called Coat du Roan can feature this year.
The Picks (I am assuming this forecast rain clears and we get back to a good or dead track)
First - Warhorse - This looks much more suitable than the Karaka Million.
Second - Rollout the Carpet - Looks talented, I have spent 1,500 words explaining how this could be Jame McDonald's week.
Third - Choice Bro - Like Rollout the Carpet the draw is a concern, there is no doubt of the talent. He will be coming on at the end.
Fourth - Seleno - Big finish, if she was 6th instead of 9th back she may have won, she will be closer from barrier 2.
In the New Zealand Stakes James McDonald will ride Scarlett Lady against a strong Group 1 field. Veyron is certainly the most dangerous after winning back to back Group 1's and showing that the step to middle distance is not so big after-all on Boxing Day, he loves this track and will be very hard to beat.
Veyron all but eliminated middle distance questions on Boxing Day. I also think his build up to this race has been far better than the build up to boxing day. He will handle all tracks so weather concerns should not be an issue.
Hold it Harvey is always consistent at Group 1 level. He came for them late when stepping back to 1600m at Otaki and was second to Shez Sensational at Te Rapa before that. This is a rare trip to Ellerslie and right handed, but he is hitting the strongest part of his campaign and he is better than when he was last here boxing day 2010.
Doctor Fremantle was good for a surprising third here on Boxing Day. He didn't get a lot of breaks last time in Hamilton. This is a big ask but he is capable of running in the money.
Showcause has basically been weighted out of the Open Handicap level (although it would have been interesting to see him yesterday). Although he didn't come back the strongest at New Plymouth that is not surprising. He is yet to feature second up either, a stat which is countered by his strong Ellerslie record. He gets better third up, and you might expect he can do something here but not enough to win.
Vosne Romanee won this race two years ago and surprised for a place last year. His last two starts have actually shown a bit of a (relative) resurgence in the nine year old gelding. Don't completely dismiss for old times sake, but there are a lot of better places for your money.
Riomoral has been a big improver over the last couple of months. WFA Group 1 seems a bit optimistic, but the steps towards middle distance have suited him.
Postmans Daughter probably needed a run between the Darci Brahma and this and she got in over 1600m in a Group 1 at Otaki. That was never going to be the ideal race for her but this is definitely where she will look at home. She seems to respond better to 2000m+ and going right handed, drawn barrier 1 will help too. This race looks perfectly set up for her, but it is hard to see her beating Veyron or Scarlett Lady.
Lady Kipling performed very strongly over 1600m at Otaki. She had her first win at Ellerslie two starts back but has twice been fourth at Group 1 level. She has been very consistent recently and the move up to 2000m should put her in a good position.
Scarlett Lady will face her first big test since returning from injury. If this race was run in the spring she probably would have been sole favourite. She has had 1 run back for 1 win but this is tougher. 2000m will surely suit her and she wont mind any rain. She has always been consistent, it was really unfortunate to see injury derailing her spring because she really could have made some noise in Melbourne last year.
Inferno is making her first trip to the big city following a pretty strong run in Matamata last start. This will be a major test but the distance should suit and around 8th up should see her peaking. It is a big ask.
Shuka is trying to become the first 3YO to win an Open level Group 1 this season. Twice in his career he has backed up in under a week and he has run second both times. The step back to 2000m should assist his chances. He is an absolute winning chance here, but yet again he might just be facing too much talent, which has been the story of his career to date.
I hate to go chalk, but it is hard to look past the favourites in this race. Who will win? toss a coin, it could be that close. We have not seen a big Group 1 shock this year, The Party Stand was somewhat of a shock winning this last year.
The Picks
First - Veyron - It just feels like he has put in the work to establish himself as favourite. Winning back to back Group 1's. The 2000m looks right for him and that Ellerslie record is superb.
Second - Scarlett Lady - Can win this based just on class. I think she will take a couple more races to get back to her absolute best, not sure where that will be, Australia?
Third - Postmans Daughter - I think the return to right handed should suit enough for her to improve on the Waikato run.
Fourth - Lady Kipling - Talent on the rise, could be the Cup week shock.
That was tough, I switched 1 and two back and forth several times and also changed up third and fourth with the mares and Hold it Harvey. I think it would pay to keep them safe on the weekend.
James McDonald calls Ellerslie his favourite track. I don't think anyone would disagree with him. Durham Town, Silent Achiever, Fix, Peridot, Between the Beats, and Shez Sensational have won this Auckland Cup week with him on board. Fix was another in a long line of wins in the first race of the day at Ellerslie yesterday. His strike rate is currently a ridiculous 4.41, that should mean with the nine rides he currently has booked for Saturday there are two winners in that group, I am sure the ones he wants the most are the Diamond Stakes and the New Zealand Stakes.
The New Zealand Derby last Saturday, James McDonald was riding Silent Achiever. The ground was possibly not as suitable as they would have liked, there was not a lot of pace in the race for Silent Achiever a horse who typically likes to race towards the back of the pack. It was evident from the relief shown by Roger James when they interviewed him after the victory that although he felt he had the horse with the most talent, he was not sure if things were lining up exactly how he wanted. After the race James McDonald admitted he didn't ride exactly to instructions and Silent Achiever slipped leaving the gates, judging from the after race comments analysts felt that possibly Silent Achiever hit the front earlier than she normally would have. What I liked about the ride was the point about 1400m to go when she was third from last and James McDonald moved her up, three wide, but closer to the pace. As they hit the 800m mark there is probably only 9 runners ahead of him, it was an excellent place for him to be when they started the sprint for home. As it was she won comfortably, but if he had been further back who knows, maybe she gets blocked or simply out sprinted. He really seemed to always have that race under his control from about 350m, every time another runner battled closer he asked her for more and she gave it.
In the Auckland Cup yesterday, as trainer Allan Sharrock said in his interview after the race "what else could go wrong" (in the video in the link, you need to sign up to view it, but it is free). He even basically said that the rain that had started about an hour before the race had put him off having a big bet on the horse because of the uncertainty in the conditions. Given what we saw on Saturday it would be hard not to be concerned at that point. During the running of the race George Simon made several comments about the position of Shez Sensational. "the favourite's under a ride" was his call as James McDonald went to work on her about 450m to go, he was probably one of the first Jockeys to make a move in the race. He then had to work a bit to find a hole, but Shez Sensational responded when he finally did. George Simon mentions she is warming up as they pass the 300m mark, but she really hits her stride with about 200m to go and just had too much top speed chasing down Spiro on the line.
Clearly we are looking at a very talented Filly and Mare, but everything didn't go their way, and those were very strong rides to allow the horses to show their best.
Now the question remains, can he go four for four?
The next Auckland Cup week Group 1 is the first Group 1 for the Two year olds the Diamond Stakes over 1200m. James McDonald is riding equal second favourite Rollout the carpet. There is a lot of talent in this race when you look at Choice Bro, Warhorse, Travino, Silk Pins and Croatia amongst others.
Choice Bro has shown eye catching finishes in the Karaka Million (fourth) and winning over Ockhams Razor last start at Taranaki. He has had the benefit of good draws to date and has performed best on a good track, he may not have either on Saturday. The blinkers which came on last start seemed to make a difference. He will be finishing big, but probably down the outside as opposed to the inside as in recent starts.
Warhorse is having his first start in over a month, however he has tended to race with these kind of gaps to date in his career so that should not effect him. A Group 3 winner with talent, he really charged home in the Karaka Million. He is already establishing a strong record at Ellerslie and his win there on New Years day was on a rain effected track. He has the benefit of a better draw so might be able to start his run from a handier position this time.
Travino had his first start back in New Zealand in the Matamata Slipper two weeks ago. The dead track gave him only his second non-win in the New Zealand since his first start (on a slow track). That was his first start in about 6 weeks, his wins have come with 14days, 14days and 21days rest, so expect a better showing here. He has drawn barrier one which should allow him to stay handy $9 fixed odds seems pretty good value if the rain stays away.
Croatia is having his third start. After winning on debut he was able to show a big finish to behind Irish Rebel and Magic Shaft. He has to be confided a contender here.
Mai Guru is having his first start since his fifth in the Karaka Million. I was slightly surprised by that fifth, he seemed to outperform other horses who I might have expected better from. This race is just stacked and he will have to show improvement to finish ahead of Silk Pins, Choice Bro, and Warhorse.
Roof of Reckoning is a maiden runner who was able to show something at Matamata, hard to know if possibly wet ground might help. He looks reasonably talented, but there are some classy runners to beat here.
King Zeus is having his second start and will go from barrier 6. He seemed to improve with trialing and was favourite in his first start. He was beaten by Fix over 1000m, who went on to have a good win on Auckland Cup day. King Zeus showed good fight but was worn down late. I suspect he may be fitter for the run and 1200m may suit.
Rollout the Carpet for James McDonald has drawn 11, but is coming off a form line which looks the same in the race book (1 and 1 been the results of his last two runs). The second win was in the Matamata Breeders Stakes at Group 2 level. She has beaten the fillies, so the question becomes can she beat the boys too? She is good and has looked it in her last two starts. Wetness underfoot does not appear to be an issue. Barrier number 11 may not be a problem if she gets out as well as she has recently, she will want to be handy and in a position to lead them home.
Seleno was very eye catching at New Plymouth last start, she was wide and back and simply flew home. If the track is wet it will suit and you suspect that 2nd up may help. The draw should suit and if she is closer to them starting her run, look out!
Silk Pins was great in the Karaka Million. Before the Karaka Million her record is deceiving, she didn't get a lot of luck in those races. Was third in the Matamata breeders stakes and didn't look as good that day. Happy to give her a chance, but I have a concern on wet ground based on the slow track New Years day at Ellerslie.
Soriano is currently undefeated. She was a winner late last week at Te Rapa. She is a bit of an enigma here, the win looked very good, but there is a lot of solid exposed form here.
Coat du Roan was good when 6th at Taranaki, was also unlucky when caught up by Ockham's Razor. Throw that race out and there is less to go on. She is almost certainly better than a $41 chance, but you could only take her on potential. Chateauneuf Dupape ran third in this race last year, as that is in the Rhone region maybe a horse called Coat du Roan can feature this year.
The Picks (I am assuming this forecast rain clears and we get back to a good or dead track)
First - Warhorse - This looks much more suitable than the Karaka Million.
Second - Rollout the Carpet - Looks talented, I have spent 1,500 words explaining how this could be Jame McDonald's week.
Third - Choice Bro - Like Rollout the Carpet the draw is a concern, there is no doubt of the talent. He will be coming on at the end.
Fourth - Seleno - Big finish, if she was 6th instead of 9th back she may have won, she will be closer from barrier 2.
In the New Zealand Stakes James McDonald will ride Scarlett Lady against a strong Group 1 field. Veyron is certainly the most dangerous after winning back to back Group 1's and showing that the step to middle distance is not so big after-all on Boxing Day, he loves this track and will be very hard to beat.
Veyron all but eliminated middle distance questions on Boxing Day. I also think his build up to this race has been far better than the build up to boxing day. He will handle all tracks so weather concerns should not be an issue.
Hold it Harvey is always consistent at Group 1 level. He came for them late when stepping back to 1600m at Otaki and was second to Shez Sensational at Te Rapa before that. This is a rare trip to Ellerslie and right handed, but he is hitting the strongest part of his campaign and he is better than when he was last here boxing day 2010.
Doctor Fremantle was good for a surprising third here on Boxing Day. He didn't get a lot of breaks last time in Hamilton. This is a big ask but he is capable of running in the money.
Showcause has basically been weighted out of the Open Handicap level (although it would have been interesting to see him yesterday). Although he didn't come back the strongest at New Plymouth that is not surprising. He is yet to feature second up either, a stat which is countered by his strong Ellerslie record. He gets better third up, and you might expect he can do something here but not enough to win.
Vosne Romanee won this race two years ago and surprised for a place last year. His last two starts have actually shown a bit of a (relative) resurgence in the nine year old gelding. Don't completely dismiss for old times sake, but there are a lot of better places for your money.
Riomoral has been a big improver over the last couple of months. WFA Group 1 seems a bit optimistic, but the steps towards middle distance have suited him.
Postmans Daughter probably needed a run between the Darci Brahma and this and she got in over 1600m in a Group 1 at Otaki. That was never going to be the ideal race for her but this is definitely where she will look at home. She seems to respond better to 2000m+ and going right handed, drawn barrier 1 will help too. This race looks perfectly set up for her, but it is hard to see her beating Veyron or Scarlett Lady.
Lady Kipling performed very strongly over 1600m at Otaki. She had her first win at Ellerslie two starts back but has twice been fourth at Group 1 level. She has been very consistent recently and the move up to 2000m should put her in a good position.
Scarlett Lady will face her first big test since returning from injury. If this race was run in the spring she probably would have been sole favourite. She has had 1 run back for 1 win but this is tougher. 2000m will surely suit her and she wont mind any rain. She has always been consistent, it was really unfortunate to see injury derailing her spring because she really could have made some noise in Melbourne last year.
Inferno is making her first trip to the big city following a pretty strong run in Matamata last start. This will be a major test but the distance should suit and around 8th up should see her peaking. It is a big ask.
Shuka is trying to become the first 3YO to win an Open level Group 1 this season. Twice in his career he has backed up in under a week and he has run second both times. The step back to 2000m should assist his chances. He is an absolute winning chance here, but yet again he might just be facing too much talent, which has been the story of his career to date.
I hate to go chalk, but it is hard to look past the favourites in this race. Who will win? toss a coin, it could be that close. We have not seen a big Group 1 shock this year, The Party Stand was somewhat of a shock winning this last year.
The Picks
First - Veyron - It just feels like he has put in the work to establish himself as favourite. Winning back to back Group 1's. The 2000m looks right for him and that Ellerslie record is superb.
Second - Scarlett Lady - Can win this based just on class. I think she will take a couple more races to get back to her absolute best, not sure where that will be, Australia?
Third - Postmans Daughter - I think the return to right handed should suit enough for her to improve on the Waikato run.
Fourth - Lady Kipling - Talent on the rise, could be the Cup week shock.
That was tough, I switched 1 and two back and forth several times and also changed up third and fourth with the mares and Hold it Harvey. I think it would pay to keep them safe on the weekend.
Thursday, 23 February 2012
The changing face of New Zealand Group One Races
For a time the Haunui Farm Group One Classic was looking like a rematch between Mufhasa, Veyron with Guiseppina in the mix. Now Mufhasa is off seeking his second Australian Group 1 of the season, in a race worth half a million Australian dollars. At some point it looked like he would be challenging the field for second with Black Caviar in that race, but it was a wise placement by Stephen McKee and Mufhasa's connections because realistically it was unlikely we would see Black Caviar run three weeks in a row, which seems a factor in the quality field the Futurity Stakes attracted.
The Otaki Group 1 really feels like the black sheep of New Zealand Group Ones, it just seems like a weird time and place amongst landscape of large race days and other Group 1's, aside from the $200,000 Group 1, the remaining races on this day are worth between $8,000 and $12,000. On first glance the field this attracted was maybe not what you might expect from a Group One either. This field contains four Group 1 winners, but it appears Vosne Romanee's best days have past, and Eagle Mountain is an unknown quantity.
When I looked again at this field in more detail this race may represent the changing face of New Zealand Group One races. Vosne Romanee, Vonsuti, Mufhasa, Hold It Harvey, Sir Slick, Six O'Clock News, Booming and two a lesser extent Wall Street (who is now racing in Australia), that is essentially the field for most Weight For Age Group 1 races over for the past couple of years. Yes, Mufhasa is still dominant, Six O'Clock News has maybe recaptured form, Booming was twice a Group 1 winner last year is still looking a possible Auckland Cup winner. These horses are not completely past it, but the point is that we have all seen these races before.
Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational have each won two Group One races this season at age four. This race contains Four Year Old mares Postman's Daughter (already a Group 2 winner and Group 1 place getter), Lady Kipling (Group 1 placed at age three and 4th in a Group 1 age four). As well as Five Year Old Group 1 Winning mare Guiseppina. This race contains Veyron (now a two time Group 1 winner) only age six, as well as promising five year old The Hombre who has won in Australia and placed at Group 1 level in New Zealand this year. This race also contains 4YO's Sadist and Jaggard who have question marks around the WFA races, but no question have talent and the potential to be running at this level. There have also been other recent runners at age four or five stepping up to Group 1 level and showing potential.
The question I am asking, is this race an example of the future of Group 1 racing in New Zealand? (for the next couple of years at least) Well, it is hard to say, certainly you would think Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational will continue to travel to Australia to compete. The problem with the mares like Guiseppina is that her connections will likely only continue to race her so long as they are winning more prize money than her progeny is likely to sell for, and they are not risking serious injury. Look at Barinka last year, solid career, finally got that Group 1, maybe didn't look like winning many more big races, suffered a bit of an injury, then retired. Another example is Veloce Bella who won the 2010 Darci Brahma International Stakes and by the time the 2011 version of that race came around she was in foal. I am sure there are countless other examples, but the landscape of these races can quickly change when it comes to the potential for a career after racing. That is why the nine horses I listed as an example of our recent Group 1 runners are all Geldings.
It is impossible to know how many more times the runners in the Haunui Farm Group 1 Classic will go on to compete against each other at this level because of some of the reasons listed above, but it is clear that I might have dismissed this field a bit too quickly because it does look like this field may contain some of the next generation of Group 1 competitors, and it is certainly evidence that we are in for an exciting group of emerging Group 1 contenders over the next couple of years.
How is this race going to play out? Here are some of my main talking points
I really think this race comes down to Eagle Mountain, certainly two years ago if he was running in this race he would have been considered favourite. At $7.50 on fixed odds it is clear that even bookmakers are not sure what to expect and they have kept him safe. The track is currently listed as dead and it is raining, weather effected tracks will suit him, he has a good 1600m record, but potentially more distance, like the New Zealand Stakes over 2000m might suit more. You almost have to include him because who knows what to expect.
Veyron will be the favourite coming off a strong Group 1 win over 1400m, he has a solid 1600m record and will be very hard to beat here.
Hold It Harvey is still very consistent and always seems to finish between 2nd and 4th in these races. This distance is his favourite recording 7 of his 14 victories at 1600m. He was really good this time of year last year, he has 8 career victories between 8th and 13th up, making this race right in the time when he tends to hit peak form. This is tough but $8.50 looks good value.
The Hombre looks the up-and-comer, if we were to jump forward to this time next year and list all of the Group 1 winners during that time, would you be surprised to see his name? no, me either. He looks to have that potential.
Guiseppina will likely struggle if it continues to rain, but this looks such a good opportunity for her to get a second Group One. Forget the run at Waikato, but I do question the 1600m, her results have been strange over this distance, she might have been effected by class, weight, track conditions or field size but the 12th and 15th are uncharacteristic, we have seen her run out 1400m races strongly which should indicate that 1600m is going to suit, but we are yet to see it.
Postmans Daughter is looking more and more likely to take out one of these races. Her last start was over 2000m, but dropping back in distance doesn't seem to be a major problem for her and she has a strong 1600m record. She also appears to becoming more suited to WFA conditions, and a rain effected track should not hinder her chances two much as she suits them better than a lot in this race.
Lady Kipling has won five races this season. This distance certainly appeals and WFA conditions for the 4YO mare shouldn't hold her chances back.
It is a tough race to pick because of the unknown conditions, looking at the forecast, we could get a lot of rain today, none tomorrow and then some overnight before the race. I will guess that this track will be at least Slow, possibly Heavy. That been the case my selections are
First - Veyron - Looks so good, handles all conditions, just a cut above.
Second - Hold it Harvey - Consistent, will handle the conditions, this could be the right place and the right time
Third - Postman's Daughter - Has shown she is up to this level of competition, back to 1600m shouldn't concern.
Fourth - Eagle Mountain - As I said he is so much of an unknown you really have to include him, particularly on a rain effected surface.
Value - Pretty good value around Postman's Daughter ($16), and even the Hombre ($10). Veyron looks so well placed here, but place odds for those will be interesting.
Longest shot I can see winning - Postman's Daughter ($16)
The Otaki Group 1 really feels like the black sheep of New Zealand Group Ones, it just seems like a weird time and place amongst landscape of large race days and other Group 1's, aside from the $200,000 Group 1, the remaining races on this day are worth between $8,000 and $12,000. On first glance the field this attracted was maybe not what you might expect from a Group One either. This field contains four Group 1 winners, but it appears Vosne Romanee's best days have past, and Eagle Mountain is an unknown quantity.
When I looked again at this field in more detail this race may represent the changing face of New Zealand Group One races. Vosne Romanee, Vonsuti, Mufhasa, Hold It Harvey, Sir Slick, Six O'Clock News, Booming and two a lesser extent Wall Street (who is now racing in Australia), that is essentially the field for most Weight For Age Group 1 races over for the past couple of years. Yes, Mufhasa is still dominant, Six O'Clock News has maybe recaptured form, Booming was twice a Group 1 winner last year is still looking a possible Auckland Cup winner. These horses are not completely past it, but the point is that we have all seen these races before.
Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational have each won two Group One races this season at age four. This race contains Four Year Old mares Postman's Daughter (already a Group 2 winner and Group 1 place getter), Lady Kipling (Group 1 placed at age three and 4th in a Group 1 age four). As well as Five Year Old Group 1 Winning mare Guiseppina. This race contains Veyron (now a two time Group 1 winner) only age six, as well as promising five year old The Hombre who has won in Australia and placed at Group 1 level in New Zealand this year. This race also contains 4YO's Sadist and Jaggard who have question marks around the WFA races, but no question have talent and the potential to be running at this level. There have also been other recent runners at age four or five stepping up to Group 1 level and showing potential.
The question I am asking, is this race an example of the future of Group 1 racing in New Zealand? (for the next couple of years at least) Well, it is hard to say, certainly you would think Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational will continue to travel to Australia to compete. The problem with the mares like Guiseppina is that her connections will likely only continue to race her so long as they are winning more prize money than her progeny is likely to sell for, and they are not risking serious injury. Look at Barinka last year, solid career, finally got that Group 1, maybe didn't look like winning many more big races, suffered a bit of an injury, then retired. Another example is Veloce Bella who won the 2010 Darci Brahma International Stakes and by the time the 2011 version of that race came around she was in foal. I am sure there are countless other examples, but the landscape of these races can quickly change when it comes to the potential for a career after racing. That is why the nine horses I listed as an example of our recent Group 1 runners are all Geldings.
It is impossible to know how many more times the runners in the Haunui Farm Group 1 Classic will go on to compete against each other at this level because of some of the reasons listed above, but it is clear that I might have dismissed this field a bit too quickly because it does look like this field may contain some of the next generation of Group 1 competitors, and it is certainly evidence that we are in for an exciting group of emerging Group 1 contenders over the next couple of years.
How is this race going to play out? Here are some of my main talking points
I really think this race comes down to Eagle Mountain, certainly two years ago if he was running in this race he would have been considered favourite. At $7.50 on fixed odds it is clear that even bookmakers are not sure what to expect and they have kept him safe. The track is currently listed as dead and it is raining, weather effected tracks will suit him, he has a good 1600m record, but potentially more distance, like the New Zealand Stakes over 2000m might suit more. You almost have to include him because who knows what to expect.
Veyron will be the favourite coming off a strong Group 1 win over 1400m, he has a solid 1600m record and will be very hard to beat here.
Hold It Harvey is still very consistent and always seems to finish between 2nd and 4th in these races. This distance is his favourite recording 7 of his 14 victories at 1600m. He was really good this time of year last year, he has 8 career victories between 8th and 13th up, making this race right in the time when he tends to hit peak form. This is tough but $8.50 looks good value.
The Hombre looks the up-and-comer, if we were to jump forward to this time next year and list all of the Group 1 winners during that time, would you be surprised to see his name? no, me either. He looks to have that potential.
Guiseppina will likely struggle if it continues to rain, but this looks such a good opportunity for her to get a second Group One. Forget the run at Waikato, but I do question the 1600m, her results have been strange over this distance, she might have been effected by class, weight, track conditions or field size but the 12th and 15th are uncharacteristic, we have seen her run out 1400m races strongly which should indicate that 1600m is going to suit, but we are yet to see it.
Postmans Daughter is looking more and more likely to take out one of these races. Her last start was over 2000m, but dropping back in distance doesn't seem to be a major problem for her and she has a strong 1600m record. She also appears to becoming more suited to WFA conditions, and a rain effected track should not hinder her chances two much as she suits them better than a lot in this race.
Lady Kipling has won five races this season. This distance certainly appeals and WFA conditions for the 4YO mare shouldn't hold her chances back.
It is a tough race to pick because of the unknown conditions, looking at the forecast, we could get a lot of rain today, none tomorrow and then some overnight before the race. I will guess that this track will be at least Slow, possibly Heavy. That been the case my selections are
First - Veyron - Looks so good, handles all conditions, just a cut above.
Second - Hold it Harvey - Consistent, will handle the conditions, this could be the right place and the right time
Third - Postman's Daughter - Has shown she is up to this level of competition, back to 1600m shouldn't concern.
Fourth - Eagle Mountain - As I said he is so much of an unknown you really have to include him, particularly on a rain effected surface.
Value - Pretty good value around Postman's Daughter ($16), and even the Hombre ($10). Veyron looks so well placed here, but place odds for those will be interesting.
Longest shot I can see winning - Postman's Daughter ($16)
Friday, 10 February 2012
Seven highlights of the racing weekend
Big weekend coming up in racing on both sides of the Tasman. There is a lot to look forward to, here is a list of my top seven things to look forward to on the track this weekend, in no particular order (other than the fact it will be chronological).
Reason One
Location: Hamilton
Time: 2.43pm
Huge race day in Hamilton this weekend, it is always a good day out, I would love to be down their again this weekend but unfortunately I will have to write about it instead. There are two Group 1's and a Group 2. The Sir Tristram Fillies Classic is one of those races which falls into the Group 2 category but year after year produces a stunning field which could be seen at Group 1 level. Last year Kings Rose followed up her victory in the 2010 Thousand Guineas with a victory in the Cambridge Stud Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. Planet Rock is looking to accomplish the same feat this year, and will be hoping to reproduce the same success that Kings Rose went on to have over the course of the rest of 2011.
The field she will face at Te Rapa this weekend contains a number of runners who hold nominations to the New Zealand Oaks and this is definitely one of those events which will indicate how likely these fillies are to be able to compete in that race.
The highlights include the aforementioned Planet Rock who won the Guineas and the Eight Carat Classic before going down to Chicharita in the Royal Stakes on New Years day. She looked better than 4th in that race and will likely run better in this event after a month off and having her second look at 2000m.
Chicharita the Royal Stakes winner who has had her two worst performances at Te Rapa, that Royal Stakes finish was impressive and a good draw should keep her handy but this does feel like a tougher race.
Up and coming Quintessential who has been notable with solid performances since her second start. She stepped up and won at Group 3 level in Wellington recently, based on that race I would put her in a similar boat to Artistic in relation to this race, both runs were similar and Quintessential won that time, but both ran similar races that day.
Zurella was highly rated heading into the Royal Stakes but she finished a pretty distant fifth, it may have been the distance or the conditions which effected her, but she has talent and deserves to be considered. Abeautifulred is putting together a decent run of races, however she does seem to encounter better horses having better days, this looks tough but she should be around the first few home.
Artistic, is having a similar season to Abeautifulred, since beating the colts in the Bonecrusher stakes she has had a string of fourth's before her striking third to Quintessential recently, it feels like she has the firepower to win this, she just needs things to go her way to be in a handy position for the finish.
Capital Diamond is never far away and showed great fight to not only chase down Abeautifulred, but to hold off the flying Artistic in the Desert Gold Stakes, the step up to 2000m shouldn't concern, she has the ability to remain consistent.
Our Famous Eve nominated here and in the Darci Brahma International she is probably better suited here, but despite the impressive Royal Stakes second I cannot help but think some of the other talent here will catch up with her.
Of the rest Leica Duell seems to have the form over a bit more ground, but it is hard to see the winner not coming from the top half of the field on Saturday.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - Should be better this time at 2000m, the draw is a concern, this is a pick on talent
Second - Artistic - We will see another one of those flying finishes she produces, if she starts her run with room she can win.
Third - Quintessential - Should be better positioned from barrier three to unleash another strong finish
Forth - Zurella - With a good track she deserves another shot at 2000m
Value - Hard to see a candidate who is far over the odds here, maybe some value around Quintessential and Capital Diamond
Reason Two
Location: Hamilton
Time: 3.53pm
Group 1 racing is always a reason to get excited and this race includes a number of factors which deserve attention, there are contenders in this race who I would not have thought would be contenders a month ago. Based on the Boxing Day performance it is hard to go past Shez Sensational, forget the 1600m Group 1 it was too short 2000m is far more suitable.
At weight for age level quality three year old's are hard to go past when making selections and Rock'n'Pop looks like a genuine contender. I remember last year on this day We Can Say It Now looked like a strong contender at Group 1 Level in the Waikato Draft Sprint but came up against a resurgent Mufhasa as well as Wall Street and Keep the Peace who had impressive seasons. Rock'n'Pop may be better suited this year in this event.
How about some of the unlikely contenders here:
Six O'Clock News - Speaking of resurgent, the Wellington Cup was great, this is tougher but he is back in form.
Booming - WFA conditions are the most suitable for Booming, 2000m is the most suitable distance too.
Doctor Fremantle - After Boxing Day you have to consider him, was that a fluke or is there better to come?
Postman's Daughter - After the counties win in November she looked to go off, but she is back racing well, WFA does concern, but she still carried 56kg for second in the Thorndon Mile.
Our Famous Eve - If she runs, at 52kgs she could be dangerous.
The Picks
First: Shez Sensational - Too good boxing day in a very similar and possibly tougher race.
Second: Rock'n'Pop - Strong, lightweight, genuine contender.
Third: Hold it Harvey - 2kg relative difference in weight to Six O'Clock News from their last meeting.
Forth: Six O'Clock News - Will give the recent form respect for now.
Value: If Our Famous Eve runs their could be value, however I would suggest that if Six O'Clock News can put on another show the $12 going at the moment is great value.
Reason Three
Location: Hamilton
Time: 5.03pm
The second Group 1 of the day might be even better in the fact that it contains the defending champion Mufhasa and recent 1200m Group 1 winner Guiseppina stepping up to weight for age conditions. Then there is Veyron, a Group 1 winner undefeated over 1400m stepping back from a second over 2000m at WFA conditions. Then there is Sangster a talented 3YO who won his last start in a small race called the Victorian Derby. This may be a three horse race for first, but it should be an interesting three horse race.
The Picks
First: Mufhasa - Simply too good
Second: Guiseppina - Came home so well 1400m really appeals, capable of carrying the weight and winning
Third: Veyron - First time not winning over 1400m.
Forth: Run Like Al - Formidable record on the course and has won three over 1400m
Value - Run Like Al - Although he will have to put on a show to finish better than forth.
Reason Four
Location: Caulfield
Who doesn't love an underdog story? A battler fighting for respect, doing their best and trying to beat the odds. Well this Saturday at Caulfield you will get to witness a horse having her 18th start, having only won a measly $4.5million, her connections hoping that stepping up to 1400m will be what it takes to finally break through for that treasured victory (the 18th one they treasure). The stands will be dripping with Salmon and Black as the crowds come in force to farewell Black Caviar as she heads off in search of stronger competition. It will be a special occasion, it is rare to see an athlete connecting with the general population and transcending their sport to gain the attention of people who would not normally be interested, Black Caviar as accomplished this with her domination through 17 starts, and it looks to continue this weekend, it is definitely something to look forward to this weekend.
Reason Five
Location: Caulfield
Time: 5.50pm
Looking past the fact that simply having Black Caviar run makes this a special occasion, the race she is running in itself is something to look forward to. This race features a number of Group 1 winners, a Caulfield Cup Winner, a Melbourne Cup Winner, multiple horses with over or close to a million in earnings. This race will ask a question of Black Caviar, which doesn't happen too often and probably has not happened since Hay List asked some questions briefly last year, this question is the 1400m which is the first time she will attempt this distance.
Well here is the answer, of course she will handle the 1400m, she runs 1200m with out even getting out of second gear, if she needs to she can at least kick it into third. She finishes races with so much left in the tank that an extra 200m cannot possibly be a concern.
In regard to the quality competition, unfortunately only two of the horses in this race will likely have their next start at this distance, and they are unlikely to be a threat. The remaining horses Efficient, Playing God, Midas Touch, Precedence, Illo and Southern Speed are starting (or early in) their Autumn campaign, this is not a race they would have necessarily been targeting but it is a step as they begin to look at longer races.
Yes, Black Caviar will win, this is not a bold prediction, the interesting part of the race will be to see who else is winding up behind her. A lot of these horses met in other races in the spring, this will be a barometer as to how they are looking now and who is likely to finish on top of the longer races later in the Autumn.
Reason Six
Location: Sydney, Rosehill
Time: 6.50pm
There is also a big race on in Sydney this weekend worth watching. It is a 1200m race which features a few notable horses, three who have won over $2 million (Danleigh, Snipers Bullet, and Sacred Choice) and another two who will likely go over that mark should they win here (Rangirangdo and Shoot Out) and . Three of the runners have imposable records on the track (Rangirangdoo, Centennial Park and Winter King). There are a couple of up and comers with strong records to date, Rain Affair has such a impressive record. A couple are likely looking for a bit more ground. All with have ambitions of going on to bigger events later in the Autumn. Definitely something to look forward to.
Reason Seven
Location: Caulfield
Time: 7:10pm
Anabandana's first start in Australia. The quality kiwi filly is having a start over a distance she owned in New Zealand (1200m). This is probably one of the tougher fields she has faced overall, but she has the benefit of having Craig Williams who will make sure she is in the best place to show that turn of foot we all know she has. It will be great to see her over in Australia preparing to take on some of the top horses in the region, this will be a really good indication of just how good she can be.
Those are my highlights for this weekend, it really will be an excellent show at Te Rapa and everyone will have an eye across the Tasman as the Autumn begins to wind up.
Reason One
Location: Hamilton
Time: 2.43pm
Huge race day in Hamilton this weekend, it is always a good day out, I would love to be down their again this weekend but unfortunately I will have to write about it instead. There are two Group 1's and a Group 2. The Sir Tristram Fillies Classic is one of those races which falls into the Group 2 category but year after year produces a stunning field which could be seen at Group 1 level. Last year Kings Rose followed up her victory in the 2010 Thousand Guineas with a victory in the Cambridge Stud Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. Planet Rock is looking to accomplish the same feat this year, and will be hoping to reproduce the same success that Kings Rose went on to have over the course of the rest of 2011.
The field she will face at Te Rapa this weekend contains a number of runners who hold nominations to the New Zealand Oaks and this is definitely one of those events which will indicate how likely these fillies are to be able to compete in that race.
The highlights include the aforementioned Planet Rock who won the Guineas and the Eight Carat Classic before going down to Chicharita in the Royal Stakes on New Years day. She looked better than 4th in that race and will likely run better in this event after a month off and having her second look at 2000m.
Chicharita the Royal Stakes winner who has had her two worst performances at Te Rapa, that Royal Stakes finish was impressive and a good draw should keep her handy but this does feel like a tougher race.
Up and coming Quintessential who has been notable with solid performances since her second start. She stepped up and won at Group 3 level in Wellington recently, based on that race I would put her in a similar boat to Artistic in relation to this race, both runs were similar and Quintessential won that time, but both ran similar races that day.
Zurella was highly rated heading into the Royal Stakes but she finished a pretty distant fifth, it may have been the distance or the conditions which effected her, but she has talent and deserves to be considered. Abeautifulred is putting together a decent run of races, however she does seem to encounter better horses having better days, this looks tough but she should be around the first few home.
Artistic, is having a similar season to Abeautifulred, since beating the colts in the Bonecrusher stakes she has had a string of fourth's before her striking third to Quintessential recently, it feels like she has the firepower to win this, she just needs things to go her way to be in a handy position for the finish.
Capital Diamond is never far away and showed great fight to not only chase down Abeautifulred, but to hold off the flying Artistic in the Desert Gold Stakes, the step up to 2000m shouldn't concern, she has the ability to remain consistent.
Our Famous Eve nominated here and in the Darci Brahma International she is probably better suited here, but despite the impressive Royal Stakes second I cannot help but think some of the other talent here will catch up with her.
Of the rest Leica Duell seems to have the form over a bit more ground, but it is hard to see the winner not coming from the top half of the field on Saturday.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - Should be better this time at 2000m, the draw is a concern, this is a pick on talent
Second - Artistic - We will see another one of those flying finishes she produces, if she starts her run with room she can win.
Third - Quintessential - Should be better positioned from barrier three to unleash another strong finish
Forth - Zurella - With a good track she deserves another shot at 2000m
Value - Hard to see a candidate who is far over the odds here, maybe some value around Quintessential and Capital Diamond
Reason Two
Location: Hamilton
Time: 3.53pm
Group 1 racing is always a reason to get excited and this race includes a number of factors which deserve attention, there are contenders in this race who I would not have thought would be contenders a month ago. Based on the Boxing Day performance it is hard to go past Shez Sensational, forget the 1600m Group 1 it was too short 2000m is far more suitable.
At weight for age level quality three year old's are hard to go past when making selections and Rock'n'Pop looks like a genuine contender. I remember last year on this day We Can Say It Now looked like a strong contender at Group 1 Level in the Waikato Draft Sprint but came up against a resurgent Mufhasa as well as Wall Street and Keep the Peace who had impressive seasons. Rock'n'Pop may be better suited this year in this event.
How about some of the unlikely contenders here:
Six O'Clock News - Speaking of resurgent, the Wellington Cup was great, this is tougher but he is back in form.
Booming - WFA conditions are the most suitable for Booming, 2000m is the most suitable distance too.
Doctor Fremantle - After Boxing Day you have to consider him, was that a fluke or is there better to come?
Postman's Daughter - After the counties win in November she looked to go off, but she is back racing well, WFA does concern, but she still carried 56kg for second in the Thorndon Mile.
Our Famous Eve - If she runs, at 52kgs she could be dangerous.
The Picks
First: Shez Sensational - Too good boxing day in a very similar and possibly tougher race.
Second: Rock'n'Pop - Strong, lightweight, genuine contender.
Third: Hold it Harvey - 2kg relative difference in weight to Six O'Clock News from their last meeting.
Forth: Six O'Clock News - Will give the recent form respect for now.
Value: If Our Famous Eve runs their could be value, however I would suggest that if Six O'Clock News can put on another show the $12 going at the moment is great value.
Reason Three
Location: Hamilton
Time: 5.03pm
The second Group 1 of the day might be even better in the fact that it contains the defending champion Mufhasa and recent 1200m Group 1 winner Guiseppina stepping up to weight for age conditions. Then there is Veyron, a Group 1 winner undefeated over 1400m stepping back from a second over 2000m at WFA conditions. Then there is Sangster a talented 3YO who won his last start in a small race called the Victorian Derby. This may be a three horse race for first, but it should be an interesting three horse race.
The Picks
First: Mufhasa - Simply too good
Second: Guiseppina - Came home so well 1400m really appeals, capable of carrying the weight and winning
Third: Veyron - First time not winning over 1400m.
Forth: Run Like Al - Formidable record on the course and has won three over 1400m
Value - Run Like Al - Although he will have to put on a show to finish better than forth.
Reason Four
Location: Caulfield
Who doesn't love an underdog story? A battler fighting for respect, doing their best and trying to beat the odds. Well this Saturday at Caulfield you will get to witness a horse having her 18th start, having only won a measly $4.5million, her connections hoping that stepping up to 1400m will be what it takes to finally break through for that treasured victory (the 18th one they treasure). The stands will be dripping with Salmon and Black as the crowds come in force to farewell Black Caviar as she heads off in search of stronger competition. It will be a special occasion, it is rare to see an athlete connecting with the general population and transcending their sport to gain the attention of people who would not normally be interested, Black Caviar as accomplished this with her domination through 17 starts, and it looks to continue this weekend, it is definitely something to look forward to this weekend.
Reason Five
Location: Caulfield
Time: 5.50pm
Looking past the fact that simply having Black Caviar run makes this a special occasion, the race she is running in itself is something to look forward to. This race features a number of Group 1 winners, a Caulfield Cup Winner, a Melbourne Cup Winner, multiple horses with over or close to a million in earnings. This race will ask a question of Black Caviar, which doesn't happen too often and probably has not happened since Hay List asked some questions briefly last year, this question is the 1400m which is the first time she will attempt this distance.
Well here is the answer, of course she will handle the 1400m, she runs 1200m with out even getting out of second gear, if she needs to she can at least kick it into third. She finishes races with so much left in the tank that an extra 200m cannot possibly be a concern.
In regard to the quality competition, unfortunately only two of the horses in this race will likely have their next start at this distance, and they are unlikely to be a threat. The remaining horses Efficient, Playing God, Midas Touch, Precedence, Illo and Southern Speed are starting (or early in) their Autumn campaign, this is not a race they would have necessarily been targeting but it is a step as they begin to look at longer races.
Yes, Black Caviar will win, this is not a bold prediction, the interesting part of the race will be to see who else is winding up behind her. A lot of these horses met in other races in the spring, this will be a barometer as to how they are looking now and who is likely to finish on top of the longer races later in the Autumn.
Reason Six
Location: Sydney, Rosehill
Time: 6.50pm
There is also a big race on in Sydney this weekend worth watching. It is a 1200m race which features a few notable horses, three who have won over $2 million (Danleigh, Snipers Bullet, and Sacred Choice) and another two who will likely go over that mark should they win here (Rangirangdo and Shoot Out) and . Three of the runners have imposable records on the track (Rangirangdoo, Centennial Park and Winter King). There are a couple of up and comers with strong records to date, Rain Affair has such a impressive record. A couple are likely looking for a bit more ground. All with have ambitions of going on to bigger events later in the Autumn. Definitely something to look forward to.
Reason Seven
Location: Caulfield
Time: 7:10pm
Anabandana's first start in Australia. The quality kiwi filly is having a start over a distance she owned in New Zealand (1200m). This is probably one of the tougher fields she has faced overall, but she has the benefit of having Craig Williams who will make sure she is in the best place to show that turn of foot we all know she has. It will be great to see her over in Australia preparing to take on some of the top horses in the region, this will be a really good indication of just how good she can be.
Those are my highlights for this weekend, it really will be an excellent show at Te Rapa and everyone will have an eye across the Tasman as the Autumn begins to wind up.
Thursday, 19 January 2012
Predicting every 2012 Group 1 winner
Sorry, I have been a little quiet recently. I have basically been away since Boxing Day races (which was an awesome day by the way), and my house was broken into prior to Christmas and all three TV's in the house were stolen (which makes it difficult to comment on racing you cannot see), the last thing I wrote was not even for this site, it was for The Punters Forum. I am now back and ready to look forward to another excellent year of racing in 2012.
We are just days away from what is shaping up to be a exciting Telegraph Handicap, so I thought I would pick a winner... I decided I would also try to pick a winner for each of the remaining Group 1 races in New Zealand this season, and the ones next season until the end of 2012 (assuming the World is still here). Obviously, I don't know who will be nominated, the conditions, or what the field may look like, but it should be fun anyway (particularly fun to look back on this and see just how far away I am).
The Date:1 January 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Railway Stakes
My Prediction: Atomic Force
The Reasoning: Ok, maybe I have cheated on that one since it happened 19 days ago.
The Date:21 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Telegraph Handicap
My Prediction: Durham Town
The Reasoning: While I think this is the kind of race which could produce an unexpected winner. I like a few of the horses in this race, but I think the weight relief from the Railway will help. Guiseppina and The Hombre may struggle from their draws. Atomic Force is currently the deserved favourite. To go a bit longer in the odds I like the look of Eight Shillings if he makes the field (and I suspect he will).
The Date:28 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Thorndon Mile Handicap
My Prediction: Dating
The Reasoning: Tough race, Platinum Princess has certainly proved herself, Hold it Harvey seems to like Wellington, and I like the looks of Smoulder and Banchee also, but this looks like the kind of race which could suit Dating and she should compare well with the other contenders in terms of weight.
The Date: 11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Darci Brahma International Stakes
My Prediction: Shez Sensational
The Reasoning: Who is currently the best middle distance WFA horse in the country? After the impressive Zabeel Classic win Shez Sensational certainly has to be considered. Will Jimmy Choux be back from his lay off for this, hard to say.
The Date:11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: International Sprint
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: The defending champion. While he might be out-weighted in the Thorndon Mile and the Telegraph Handicap, WFA conditions should suit Mufhasa here. Obviously, I have no knowledge of when Jimmy Choux might return, but if he does come back for an Autumn campaign this race might be a logical starting point to build up and maybe attack the NZ stakes on Diamond Day during Auckland Cup week.
The Date:25 February 2012
The Location: Otaki
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Otaki WFA
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: Maybe he will be looking to head over to Australia for another shot at a Group 1 so who knows, but last years efforts over 1600m show he can win this type of race over 2000m.
The Date:3 March 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Derby (3YO)
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: I have not really seen a clear cut derby favourite emerge as yet, there also does not appear to be a 3YO who is so talented that they will win this despite not looking like a stayer. A horse like Duckworth Lewis might appeal, but while he is listed on the NZ Racing site he is not on the TAB. Rock'n'Pop, Planet Rock, Artistic, and Shanghai Bund all appeal, but Knight's Tour's win in the Great Northern Guineas is my pick until I get to see the Avondale Guineas and reassess the situation.
The Date:7 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 3200m
The Race: Auckland Cup
My Prediction: Scarlett Lady
The Reasoning: Whilst I enjoyed the New Zealand Cup, it is hard to say if it is a guide to anything you might expect to see here. I think the usual suspects are going to be interesting in this race. I think Scarlett Lady had the class to go well in Melbourne last spring and should be a force in this race.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Diamond Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Who is the top 2YO in the country? who will be the top 2YO in March? Who will win this race? those questions probably have three different answers. I have to go with the class 2YO at the moment, but this could be won by a horse who has not even had a start yet.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: New Zealand Stakes
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: I think he will be back, he is still the best and should win this type of race.
The Date:17 March 2012
The Location:Wellington
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Oaks (3YOF)
My Prediction: Silent Achiever
The Reasoning: I have been on this horse as an Oaks winner since I saw her run at Twlight Races, I was impressed by the flying finish again on Boxing day at Group 2 level, she then won over 2000m at that level (albeit on a rain effected track with a limited field). She is the favourite at this stage and deservedly so.
The Date:31 March 2012
The Location:Manawatu
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Manawatu Sires' Produce Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Have to keep with who looks good at this stage even though this may change by the end of March.
The Date:7 April 2012
The Location: Te Aroha
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (F&M)
My Prediction: Twlight Savings
The Reasoning: Is it just me or does something strange tend to happen in this race most years? We have such a good crop of fillies and mares around at the moment that this should be a very interesting race with a tight betting market.
The Date:14 April 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Easter Handicap
My Prediction: Vincent Street
The Reasoning: I figure a 3YO is winning an Open Group 1 this year, while it is most likely that would win a WFA race the fact that this is a handicap is not unprecedented (Time Keeper last year). It will probably be a horse who goes well on the track, a horse who can handle a wet track (we had a wet Christmas, we are probably getting a wet Easter; sorry to be pessimistic) and one who is not weighted out of it by performances in other Group 1's. Therefore Vincent Street who is currently rated 72 is my pick.
The Date:Late August
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Makfi Challenge Stakes
My Prediction: Antonio Lombardo
The Reasoning: I can't find a Group 1 this season this horse will win, I think 1400m is a strong distance for him and he was so good in the Spring last year.
The Date:September
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Windsor Park Plate
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: If Jimmy is headed for another Cox Plate attempt I can see him defending his crown in this race on his home track first.
The Date: October
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 2040m
The Race: Spring Classic
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: It is too easy to pick Jimmy Choux again, although I feel he will win this I am going to pretend he does not start this race and pick another horse.
I am going to skip making selections for the two Guineas races and the Levin Classic, who knows what the crop of 3YO's will look like by next spring?
The Date: December
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Captain Cook Stakes
My Prediction: Banchee
The Reasoning: I figure a lot of the top milers will be rested after an Aussie spring campaign. This might come down to a horse who has not won a Group One, maybe a horse who is improving to reach this level of contention, maybe even a horse who might not be proven over 1600m yet. Even looking through the list of noms for the Thorndon Mile this year it is hard to know which milers might fit this mold in 11 months time.
The Date:Boxing Day 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Zabeel Classic
My Prediction: Veyron
The Reasoning:Clearly loves Ellerslie, he held up well in this race last year despite it been his first attempt over the distance, another year of possibly taking on more 2000m races and I think he is ready to take this.
We are just days away from what is shaping up to be a exciting Telegraph Handicap, so I thought I would pick a winner... I decided I would also try to pick a winner for each of the remaining Group 1 races in New Zealand this season, and the ones next season until the end of 2012 (assuming the World is still here). Obviously, I don't know who will be nominated, the conditions, or what the field may look like, but it should be fun anyway (particularly fun to look back on this and see just how far away I am).
The Date:1 January 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Railway Stakes
My Prediction: Atomic Force
The Reasoning: Ok, maybe I have cheated on that one since it happened 19 days ago.
The Date:21 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Telegraph Handicap
My Prediction: Durham Town
The Reasoning: While I think this is the kind of race which could produce an unexpected winner. I like a few of the horses in this race, but I think the weight relief from the Railway will help. Guiseppina and The Hombre may struggle from their draws. Atomic Force is currently the deserved favourite. To go a bit longer in the odds I like the look of Eight Shillings if he makes the field (and I suspect he will).
The Date:28 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Thorndon Mile Handicap
My Prediction: Dating
The Reasoning: Tough race, Platinum Princess has certainly proved herself, Hold it Harvey seems to like Wellington, and I like the looks of Smoulder and Banchee also, but this looks like the kind of race which could suit Dating and she should compare well with the other contenders in terms of weight.
The Date: 11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Darci Brahma International Stakes
My Prediction: Shez Sensational
The Reasoning: Who is currently the best middle distance WFA horse in the country? After the impressive Zabeel Classic win Shez Sensational certainly has to be considered. Will Jimmy Choux be back from his lay off for this, hard to say.
The Date:11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: International Sprint
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: The defending champion. While he might be out-weighted in the Thorndon Mile and the Telegraph Handicap, WFA conditions should suit Mufhasa here. Obviously, I have no knowledge of when Jimmy Choux might return, but if he does come back for an Autumn campaign this race might be a logical starting point to build up and maybe attack the NZ stakes on Diamond Day during Auckland Cup week.
The Date:25 February 2012
The Location: Otaki
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Otaki WFA
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: Maybe he will be looking to head over to Australia for another shot at a Group 1 so who knows, but last years efforts over 1600m show he can win this type of race over 2000m.
The Date:3 March 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Derby (3YO)
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: I have not really seen a clear cut derby favourite emerge as yet, there also does not appear to be a 3YO who is so talented that they will win this despite not looking like a stayer. A horse like Duckworth Lewis might appeal, but while he is listed on the NZ Racing site he is not on the TAB. Rock'n'Pop, Planet Rock, Artistic, and Shanghai Bund all appeal, but Knight's Tour's win in the Great Northern Guineas is my pick until I get to see the Avondale Guineas and reassess the situation.
The Date:7 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 3200m
The Race: Auckland Cup
My Prediction: Scarlett Lady
The Reasoning: Whilst I enjoyed the New Zealand Cup, it is hard to say if it is a guide to anything you might expect to see here. I think the usual suspects are going to be interesting in this race. I think Scarlett Lady had the class to go well in Melbourne last spring and should be a force in this race.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Diamond Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Who is the top 2YO in the country? who will be the top 2YO in March? Who will win this race? those questions probably have three different answers. I have to go with the class 2YO at the moment, but this could be won by a horse who has not even had a start yet.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: New Zealand Stakes
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: I think he will be back, he is still the best and should win this type of race.
The Date:17 March 2012
The Location:Wellington
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Oaks (3YOF)
My Prediction: Silent Achiever
The Reasoning: I have been on this horse as an Oaks winner since I saw her run at Twlight Races, I was impressed by the flying finish again on Boxing day at Group 2 level, she then won over 2000m at that level (albeit on a rain effected track with a limited field). She is the favourite at this stage and deservedly so.
The Date:31 March 2012
The Location:Manawatu
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Manawatu Sires' Produce Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Have to keep with who looks good at this stage even though this may change by the end of March.
The Date:7 April 2012
The Location: Te Aroha
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (F&M)
My Prediction: Twlight Savings
The Reasoning: Is it just me or does something strange tend to happen in this race most years? We have such a good crop of fillies and mares around at the moment that this should be a very interesting race with a tight betting market.
The Date:14 April 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Easter Handicap
My Prediction: Vincent Street
The Reasoning: I figure a 3YO is winning an Open Group 1 this year, while it is most likely that would win a WFA race the fact that this is a handicap is not unprecedented (Time Keeper last year). It will probably be a horse who goes well on the track, a horse who can handle a wet track (we had a wet Christmas, we are probably getting a wet Easter; sorry to be pessimistic) and one who is not weighted out of it by performances in other Group 1's. Therefore Vincent Street who is currently rated 72 is my pick.
The Date:Late August
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Makfi Challenge Stakes
My Prediction: Antonio Lombardo
The Reasoning: I can't find a Group 1 this season this horse will win, I think 1400m is a strong distance for him and he was so good in the Spring last year.
The Date:September
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Windsor Park Plate
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: If Jimmy is headed for another Cox Plate attempt I can see him defending his crown in this race on his home track first.
The Date: October
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 2040m
The Race: Spring Classic
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: It is too easy to pick Jimmy Choux again, although I feel he will win this I am going to pretend he does not start this race and pick another horse.
I am going to skip making selections for the two Guineas races and the Levin Classic, who knows what the crop of 3YO's will look like by next spring?
The Date: December
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Captain Cook Stakes
My Prediction: Banchee
The Reasoning: I figure a lot of the top milers will be rested after an Aussie spring campaign. This might come down to a horse who has not won a Group One, maybe a horse who is improving to reach this level of contention, maybe even a horse who might not be proven over 1600m yet. Even looking through the list of noms for the Thorndon Mile this year it is hard to know which milers might fit this mold in 11 months time.
The Date:Boxing Day 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Zabeel Classic
My Prediction: Veyron
The Reasoning:Clearly loves Ellerslie, he held up well in this race last year despite it been his first attempt over the distance, another year of possibly taking on more 2000m races and I think he is ready to take this.
Wednesday, 30 November 2011
Why am I so sure?
Three weeks ago when Mufhasa was running in Tauranga his past three race day starts had included victories in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap, the Group 1 Makfi Challenge Stakes, and a second in the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate. The field he was facing had combined to win $2.6m, just a touch under what Mufhasa has accumulated in his esteemed career to date. I was sure he was going to win.
Last Friday Antonio Lombardo was facing a capacity Levin Classic field, however with the absence of other 3YO Group 1 winners, the field featured just two other horses who had won or placed above Listed level (Duckworth Lewis, and Distil), it featured only another two horses who had won at listed level, and a further one who had placed at that level. Andonio Lombardo came into the race having won his last three, in his career he has won three at group level and a further two listed races, he beat Anabandana last start and was second in a Group 1 as a two year old, the next best placed Group 1 runner in this race was Distil with a 4th ($36 is what he paid people!). I was sure he was going to win.
The point of this post is not to point out all of the times when I was sure something was going to happen and it didn't, there is not enough space on the Internet for that. I was not alone in my certainty of Mufhasa and Antonio Lombardo victories, they paid $1.40 and $1.70 in those races. Obviously favourites don't always win, if they did, what would be the point, every winner would pay $1. There were certainly signs that Distil was a contender in that race last week, as well as several other runners who all featured in the top six or so, and there were signs that Antonio Lombardo might not be the dominant horse in that race (although I think he was unlucky and had to expend effort early on, he featured heavily in the stewards report). The point of this post is to look at some likely favourites and figure out why you should not be so sure.
This was supposed to be a post focusing on all of the races in New Zealand which contained favourites which people appeared to be sure of, however as of the writing of this post there is only fixed odds out for six of the twenty odd races in New Zealand tomorrow, the only favourite at this point people appear to be sure of is Mufhasa, here are the reasons he will not win.
As little as six months ago I would not have considered Mufhasa a 1600m horse at this level, however now he has won and placed at Group 1 level in the last couple of months. His overall record includes four wins of twelve starts at that distance. He was beaten last start, but that was due to over racing early and wearing himself out a bit and even then he was just beaten late. He had 35 days off between runs before that start at Tauranga, he will be much better for that and ready to win here.
For Mufhasa to lose this he will either have to perform badly or be beaten by a better horse, who might be that better horse?
Hold it Harvey won impressively course and distance in March, he was good in the Coupland Mile and the Windsor Park plate. He chased Mufhasa home in Hastings but he has had two starts since then, he definitely improves with a bit of racing, from barrier four he will get a chance to follow Mufhasa and compete late.
Booming had a great year last year, and although he would typically like a bit more distance he did win a Group 1 over this distance last year. He looked good in Australia which was tougher than this, he is a good horse and should be more than comfortable in this company.
Vosne Romanee, was amazing a couple of years ago but his form has not really returned. A triple group one winner is always a threat, but will need some improvement.
Bragato, you have to respect the win on the course and distance recently, but the conditions should be better tomorrow than that day. He is well acquainted with the track and has had a good year, but this seems like a big step up.
Vonusti has only won once at 1600m, and only won once at Wellington, however that was at Group 1 level. That group one victory was his last victory, but he has put forward a lot of great close performances since then. Some of his top performances have been over 1600m, and he came home very strongly in a top field at Ellerslie last start. He might be the best chance to upset the favourite.
Platiunm Princess is the first of the mares in this race, she is in form winning the Coupland's mile. The WFA conditions should cause some problems, the highest weight she has carried to victory is 56.5kg but you still have to consider the form.
Dating is a real chance if you go off the Hawera victory. The barrier inside Mufhasa should be useful and give Jonathan Riddell a chance to position the horse to show another flying finish.
Banchee is a 1600m Group 1 winner as a 3YO. She is class and definitely has not received all the favours in her last two starts.
Elusive Tracy is a nice mare who has looked pretty good recently. This is a big step up for her, but she seems to go well on the course, hard to take at Group 1 level.
Of the horses I am mentioned I can genuinely see a few of them beating Mufhasa if things go their way, Banchee and Dating are real chances, Vonusti and Hold it Harvey have the form and experience to challenge, and Vosne Romanee is a wild card. Booming is back in New Zealand where he was so good last year. Platinum Princess might step up to WFA conditions and maybe Bragato and Elusive Tracy will surprise. However I still think Mufhasa looks the one to beat... I am sure of it.
Last Friday Antonio Lombardo was facing a capacity Levin Classic field, however with the absence of other 3YO Group 1 winners, the field featured just two other horses who had won or placed above Listed level (Duckworth Lewis, and Distil), it featured only another two horses who had won at listed level, and a further one who had placed at that level. Andonio Lombardo came into the race having won his last three, in his career he has won three at group level and a further two listed races, he beat Anabandana last start and was second in a Group 1 as a two year old, the next best placed Group 1 runner in this race was Distil with a 4th ($36 is what he paid people!). I was sure he was going to win.
The point of this post is not to point out all of the times when I was sure something was going to happen and it didn't, there is not enough space on the Internet for that. I was not alone in my certainty of Mufhasa and Antonio Lombardo victories, they paid $1.40 and $1.70 in those races. Obviously favourites don't always win, if they did, what would be the point, every winner would pay $1. There were certainly signs that Distil was a contender in that race last week, as well as several other runners who all featured in the top six or so, and there were signs that Antonio Lombardo might not be the dominant horse in that race (although I think he was unlucky and had to expend effort early on, he featured heavily in the stewards report). The point of this post is to look at some likely favourites and figure out why you should not be so sure.
This was supposed to be a post focusing on all of the races in New Zealand which contained favourites which people appeared to be sure of, however as of the writing of this post there is only fixed odds out for six of the twenty odd races in New Zealand tomorrow, the only favourite at this point people appear to be sure of is Mufhasa, here are the reasons he will not win.
As little as six months ago I would not have considered Mufhasa a 1600m horse at this level, however now he has won and placed at Group 1 level in the last couple of months. His overall record includes four wins of twelve starts at that distance. He was beaten last start, but that was due to over racing early and wearing himself out a bit and even then he was just beaten late. He had 35 days off between runs before that start at Tauranga, he will be much better for that and ready to win here.
For Mufhasa to lose this he will either have to perform badly or be beaten by a better horse, who might be that better horse?
Hold it Harvey won impressively course and distance in March, he was good in the Coupland Mile and the Windsor Park plate. He chased Mufhasa home in Hastings but he has had two starts since then, he definitely improves with a bit of racing, from barrier four he will get a chance to follow Mufhasa and compete late.
Booming had a great year last year, and although he would typically like a bit more distance he did win a Group 1 over this distance last year. He looked good in Australia which was tougher than this, he is a good horse and should be more than comfortable in this company.
Vosne Romanee, was amazing a couple of years ago but his form has not really returned. A triple group one winner is always a threat, but will need some improvement.
Bragato, you have to respect the win on the course and distance recently, but the conditions should be better tomorrow than that day. He is well acquainted with the track and has had a good year, but this seems like a big step up.
Vonusti has only won once at 1600m, and only won once at Wellington, however that was at Group 1 level. That group one victory was his last victory, but he has put forward a lot of great close performances since then. Some of his top performances have been over 1600m, and he came home very strongly in a top field at Ellerslie last start. He might be the best chance to upset the favourite.
Platiunm Princess is the first of the mares in this race, she is in form winning the Coupland's mile. The WFA conditions should cause some problems, the highest weight she has carried to victory is 56.5kg but you still have to consider the form.
Dating is a real chance if you go off the Hawera victory. The barrier inside Mufhasa should be useful and give Jonathan Riddell a chance to position the horse to show another flying finish.
Banchee is a 1600m Group 1 winner as a 3YO. She is class and definitely has not received all the favours in her last two starts.
Elusive Tracy is a nice mare who has looked pretty good recently. This is a big step up for her, but she seems to go well on the course, hard to take at Group 1 level.
Of the horses I am mentioned I can genuinely see a few of them beating Mufhasa if things go their way, Banchee and Dating are real chances, Vonusti and Hold it Harvey have the form and experience to challenge, and Vosne Romanee is a wild card. Booming is back in New Zealand where he was so good last year. Platinum Princess might step up to WFA conditions and maybe Bragato and Elusive Tracy will surprise. However I still think Mufhasa looks the one to beat... I am sure of it.
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