Shameful confession time; I watched The Ridges last night (hey, I live with Girls). It was an amazing 30 minutes of TV; amazing because nothing happened. No conflict, no interesting plot twists, no staged over-produced segments (with the exception of the mouse release in the kitchen). This was not the Kardashian's, on that show the producers at least have the decency to put the characters in situations where something interesting has a chance to happen. In some ways that made The Ridges the most REAL of all the reality TV shows, just two people with normal, boring, mundane lives.
Needless to say TV3's recent foray into prime-time fly-on-the-wall style reality TV is here to stay. You can debate the quality, but, like The GC, I am confident The Ridges will get ratings. Did I just sit back and watch? Nay (neigh?), I got brainstorming. Today, I present to you short pitches for TV3's next reality show, based around racing.
Race Vets
Medical related reality shows are popular. Animal related reality shows are popular. See where I am heading with this? Camera crews follow a bustling Veterinary clinic in Matamata throughout the racing season dealing with all the ailments which crop up in the racing industry.
Punters
This show will follow three punters over a period of 10 weeks. A grizzly veteran, a young up-and-coming gambler, and a novice with no racing experience (one of them a woman) . Each week our punters will be staked with $10,000, the show will follow the experts analysing the racing and placing bets, while the novice will use a different betting/analysing/staking system each week which they have found in a book or some dark corner of the internet. The show follows the ups and downs of big wins and bad beats.
The George Simon Experience
Who is this mysterious voice of the north? Who generates the dulcet baritone heard throughout the concourses and grandstands of Ellerslie and other northern racing venues? This show follows New Zealand's favourite race caller (or mine at least) as he travels the country in search of the perfect call. The preparation, the home life, the interactions of the daily life of George Simon. It also has great potential for crossovers into TV3's other reality IP such as, GS on the GC (George Simon travels to the GC to call a race meeting at Gold Coast race track), or the Ridges at the Races.
The Centre
Behind the scenes of New Zealand's busiest race track (I don't know if that is a fact, but it will certainly help promote a fictitious TV show). Ellerslie's Event Centre is not only a venue for race meetings, but it is also a function centre hosting a range of events from balls and trade shows, to weddings and gigs. There is a host of possible drama when it comes to staging these events which can be nicely exploited in reality TV. The show will be shot around the 12 weeks leading up to Auckland Cup Week, with all the preparation and organisation for the week itself as well as the other events which take place at Ellerslie racecourse over the summer.
The Apprentice
Probably an unusable working title, we could have a subtitle ":the Jockey edition", I also liked "New Zealand's next top Jockey". This show will bring together 10 wannabe apprentice jockeys and one top racing stable. Each week the potential jockeys will compete in challenges related to racing, riding, and stable life to avoid elimination and hope to gain a position as the next apprentice jockey for the stable.
Yearlings
Karaka, January 2013, the hammer drops, David Ellis has just paid top dollar for another prized yearling. This show will follow the top 5 highest priced yearlings to remain in New Zealand from the Karaka sales as they are trained towards their career as a racehorse. The challenges and the triumphs of the stable as they hope to create another champion.
Well, that wasn't so hard. No wonder production companies like reality TV, you don't require a single original thought to create one. Lets hope someone with some juice is reading this and we can see some of these on our screens next year to save ourselves from Season 2 of The Ridges.
Showing posts with label Ellerslie. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ellerslie. Show all posts
Thursday, 13 September 2012
Monday, 10 September 2012
Spring Notes - 9 September 2012
After digesting a good portion of the racing action from New Zealand
and Australia on Saturday I went back and zipped through all of the
action again on Sunday to figure out what I learned about some of the
major contenders for the big races this Spring. My comments for New
Zealand races are a little more thought out, my comments on Australian
races are almost exactly what I jotted down as I watched them and
replayed them. All price quotes are per the New Zealand TAB.
Auckland
The most notable race was the JRA trophy, this race featured Shez Sinsational and a host of other runners who are likely to show up in feature races in the next few months.
Shez Sinational - 1400m is always going to be slightly shorter than ideal, handicap conditions suited some of her rivals, and the wet track (as we discovered in the Nathan's Memorial) was probably not going to suit. I am not sure we will quite see her at her best in the Windsor, and last year it took her a few starts to get that win. We probably saw the performance we needed to see from her, a battling run in unsuitable conditions, as soon as the races get closer to 2000m she will be a big danger.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate - $15, Spring Classic $5
Full of Spirit - looked very good when fresh up. She seems to handle all track conditions well, so should be solid over more distance for the rest of the spring. She is not currently nominated for anything in Australia (as far as I can see, but it looks like she will head that way), her only NZ nomination is the Couplands bakery mile in which you would expect her to be a go of chance.
Postmans Daughter - a favourite of mine, one who always seems to keep fighting. She looked positive again over the weekend, possibly faded relative to Full of Spirit over the last 50m but was strong against all others. She had the benefit of a great trip. Looks like another promising season ahead for her.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate $21 (look for place odds on the day), Spring Classic $14 (Value)
Atom Cat - A year ago he was in the WPP, this year he is not nominated for any of the big features yet, despite the fact the conditions may have assisted him, he finished off this race very strongly despite not getting much luck in the straight.
Carrick - Had to work hard to get into a position to make a run between the 600m and 400m marks, but not that much harder than Full of Spirit worked for her run. He finished off reasonably strongly but possibly faded over the final 150m. He has performed on a slow track in the past, he is possibly looking for more distance (although his two wins have been over 1200m and 1400m). He was only carrying 55kg, this is a bit of a concern heading into a WFA race where he would meet the likes of Postman's Daughter and Shez Sinsational relatively worse off.
Current odds - Windsor - $15 (hard to have), Spring Classic $10 (will have to improve, prefer Postmans Daughter at odds)
3YO's
Tough day to judge them, the track was not great. These conditions are often what we see in Canterbury in November, so it is probably worth taking notes.
Twilight Granita - I loved the run, how much extra ground did she cover? she was racing 4-5 wide at points around the bend. She just kept giving to get there and win. She has been consistent, seems to handle all conditions well, and a step in distance shouldn't hurt.She is nominated for the 1000 guineas, but odds are not yet released.
Kisses - Pretty strong fighting run for second. Not currently nominated, but seems to be the consistent type who is improving with each start.
Hollywood Angel - Horrible start, but she chased them down nicely and showed a strong finish into 6th, she most likely could have won without the bad luck. She is nominated for both Guineas and should be a threat.
Comical Lass - Kept closing into 4th. Seems to perform well on rain effected tracks (which is all she has seen so far).
Hazel - I expected better, she was not really seen. Definitely one to look at on a better track to see how she goes. Should improve 2nd up.
Liberating - Improved with racing before the second in the Matamata Breeders at age two. Looks like she will need a couple of starts this prep before she is at her best.
Ray's Girl - Seemed to keep finishing well after a poor start. Improved with racing last prep, may have been a bit too wet.
Snow Line - Used a bit of energy during the run, but I didn't see any justification for the pre-race price.
Warhorse - I am happy to forgive the favourite and suggest that he didn't handle the conditions when he faded late. He was 6th in the Wentwood Grange before winning a Group 3 last year, so I think we will see him improve into his next start.
Move Faster - I liked the late run of Swiper the Fox, but these two were basically side by side on the bend. Swiper the Fox unwound late, Move Faster accelerated consistently to win nicely. Move faster is yet to see a good track, but looks to be one to keep an eye on throughout the spring.
Batman - Didn't get the best trip, but ran home well living up to the trial form.
Swiper the Fox - Big finishing burst, had to work around the bend, will be stronger over more grounds. I think the conditions suited him.
Freedom - Worked hard to find a place to settle, but did find a handy position. Didn't show much at the finish, probably related to the conditions.
Hayleys Comet - Was far off them when he got a chance to run, but he did seem to come home pretty well, probably not the worst effort on display.
Australia - Sydney
Ming Dynasty
Magic Shaft - Didn't get a lot of luck, wide and probably over raced slightly before fading towards the end. Will need to improve to figure over 2000m. Probably hurt by 59kg in handicap conditions.
Current Odds - Spring Championship Stakes $31
Also Nominated - Caulfield Guineas
Overall I liked what I saw from all of the first 5 finishers, certainly the winner Tatra looked good and carried 58.5kg, and Honorius had a pretty strong finish into Third.
Current Odds
Spring Championship Stake
Tatra $9
Honorius $14
Proverb $14
Rowie $18
Sumarand $18
Golden Rose
Sumarand $41
Chelmsford Stakes
Danleigh was great in winning, and Secret admirer was a strong second. Lights of heaven didn't seem to do a lot, but will improve over more distance and in handicap conditions. Maules Creek showed a decent finish into 5th.
Current odds
Danleigh - Epsom $21 (Hard to have in a Handicap)
Secret Admirer - Epsom $11, Caulfield Cup $41, Cox Plate $21
Lights of Heaven - The Metropolitan $16, Caulfield Cup $31, Cox Plate $51, Melbourne Cup $51
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31, Caulfield Cup $101
Furious Stakes
Pussy Willow - Didn't seem like a great run, she was probably hurt by the pace and never really got into the race.
The first three (Dear Demi, Meidung, and Jade Marauder) all comfortably pulled away from the field, and looked good in their relative positions. Dear Demi won reasonably well, but all three impressed.
Current Odds
Pussy Willow - Nominated 1000 Guineas, will need to improve
Dear Demi - Golden Rose $26
Meidung - Golden Rose $26
Jade Marauder - - Golden Rose $26
Last at Sydney
Quintessenial - As good as a last can be (actually finished second last), certainly didn't get all the favours in the running and probably faded when he got blocked going for a run. I would forgive this run and look for value next start over more distance.
Epsom -$51
Caulfield Cup - $31
Melbourne Cup - $101
Australia - Melbourne
Lets Elope
Zurella - Awesome performance. She really had to fight hard for a run, and looked great when she got one. 55kg under handicap conditions, but as the races get harder she might not take too much of a penalty relative to the other runners she will face. Despite her second in the Oaks and strong Derby run, I felt that the 1400-1600m range was always her most suited distance. I expect she is probably heading to a Caulfield Cup, but she could also prove dangerous in a Myer Classic or Emirates Mile type race.
(Miss) Artistic - Not much between the Ritchie stablemates in the Oaks, but Artistic won, then had some success in Queensland and ended up carrying far more weight over the weekend. Still it was a pretty good performance. She will get better over more ground.
Hi Belle, kept on fighting into second. Lady Melksham fought well into fifth. Yosei unwound fairly late to beat Artistic and finish 6th.
Zurella - Caulfield Cup $31, Melbourne Cup $41
Artistic - Caulfield Cup $61 (good odds, she will improve), Melbourne Cup $101
Yosei - Caulfield Cup $151, Epsom $16, Cox Plate $101
Danehill Stakes
Snitzerland has an awesome name and was very impressive pulling away for victory after struggling for a run. Thought the first three were all pretty good and Swift Exit finished strongly for 5th at big odds.
Makybe Diva
The pace looked a little slow, but it was still an impressive win by Southern Speed to hold out the fast finishing Manighar. Lots of contenders here, the most notable Moudre running well and finishing third. December Draw was possibly a little unlucky, but ran on reasonably well. Efficient travelled wide and just didn't have a lot of finish. Moyuran picked up with pace over the last 100m. Dance With Her finished well late. Second Effort looked very good late coming from wide on the track (I think, I cant read my notes here).
The ones I would watch most closely are probably ones you already know to watch Manighar, Southern Speed, and I would like to see the improvement Second Effort takes from this.
Current Odds
December Draw- Caulfield Cup $26, Melbourne Cup $21, Cox Plate $26
Dance With Her - The Metropolitan $61, Caulfield Cup $101, Melbourne Cup $81
Efficient - The Metropolitan $21 (hard to recommend, will improve over more distance), Caulfield Cup $51, Melbourne Cup $41, Cox Plate $81
Manighar - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $14
Moudre - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $31, Cox Plate $51
Moyuran - The Metropolitan $26, Caulfield Cup $41, Melbourne Cup $51, Cox Plate $101
Southern Speed - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $21
Bobbie Lewis Quality
I think Anabandana is done, I was actually surprised to see her racing, I thought she had retired last year.
Mosheen will be better over more distance.
Sofitel Handicap
I thought the winner Excluded won very well and was pretty happy with what I saw from the first three (Exceptionally and Prizum).
Innocent Lady - was pretty average, she just faded on the bend.
The Jungle Boy - Had a very nice run, but didn't show much when it was time to really race.
Single Minded - Probably lasted 100m more than Innocent Lady. Will improve with more distance.
Current Odds
Excluded - The Metropolitan $18, Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $51
Exceptionally - Melbourne Cup $61
Single Minded - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $81 (certainly capable if makes the field)
Auckland
The most notable race was the JRA trophy, this race featured Shez Sinsational and a host of other runners who are likely to show up in feature races in the next few months.
Shez Sinational - 1400m is always going to be slightly shorter than ideal, handicap conditions suited some of her rivals, and the wet track (as we discovered in the Nathan's Memorial) was probably not going to suit. I am not sure we will quite see her at her best in the Windsor, and last year it took her a few starts to get that win. We probably saw the performance we needed to see from her, a battling run in unsuitable conditions, as soon as the races get closer to 2000m she will be a big danger.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate - $15, Spring Classic $5
Full of Spirit - looked very good when fresh up. She seems to handle all track conditions well, so should be solid over more distance for the rest of the spring. She is not currently nominated for anything in Australia (as far as I can see, but it looks like she will head that way), her only NZ nomination is the Couplands bakery mile in which you would expect her to be a go of chance.
Postmans Daughter - a favourite of mine, one who always seems to keep fighting. She looked positive again over the weekend, possibly faded relative to Full of Spirit over the last 50m but was strong against all others. She had the benefit of a great trip. Looks like another promising season ahead for her.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate $21 (look for place odds on the day), Spring Classic $14 (Value)
Atom Cat - A year ago he was in the WPP, this year he is not nominated for any of the big features yet, despite the fact the conditions may have assisted him, he finished off this race very strongly despite not getting much luck in the straight.
Carrick - Had to work hard to get into a position to make a run between the 600m and 400m marks, but not that much harder than Full of Spirit worked for her run. He finished off reasonably strongly but possibly faded over the final 150m. He has performed on a slow track in the past, he is possibly looking for more distance (although his two wins have been over 1200m and 1400m). He was only carrying 55kg, this is a bit of a concern heading into a WFA race where he would meet the likes of Postman's Daughter and Shez Sinsational relatively worse off.
Current odds - Windsor - $15 (hard to have), Spring Classic $10 (will have to improve, prefer Postmans Daughter at odds)
3YO's
Tough day to judge them, the track was not great. These conditions are often what we see in Canterbury in November, so it is probably worth taking notes.
Twilight Granita - I loved the run, how much extra ground did she cover? she was racing 4-5 wide at points around the bend. She just kept giving to get there and win. She has been consistent, seems to handle all conditions well, and a step in distance shouldn't hurt.She is nominated for the 1000 guineas, but odds are not yet released.
Kisses - Pretty strong fighting run for second. Not currently nominated, but seems to be the consistent type who is improving with each start.
Hollywood Angel - Horrible start, but she chased them down nicely and showed a strong finish into 6th, she most likely could have won without the bad luck. She is nominated for both Guineas and should be a threat.
Comical Lass - Kept closing into 4th. Seems to perform well on rain effected tracks (which is all she has seen so far).
Hazel - I expected better, she was not really seen. Definitely one to look at on a better track to see how she goes. Should improve 2nd up.
Liberating - Improved with racing before the second in the Matamata Breeders at age two. Looks like she will need a couple of starts this prep before she is at her best.
Ray's Girl - Seemed to keep finishing well after a poor start. Improved with racing last prep, may have been a bit too wet.
Snow Line - Used a bit of energy during the run, but I didn't see any justification for the pre-race price.
Warhorse - I am happy to forgive the favourite and suggest that he didn't handle the conditions when he faded late. He was 6th in the Wentwood Grange before winning a Group 3 last year, so I think we will see him improve into his next start.
Move Faster - I liked the late run of Swiper the Fox, but these two were basically side by side on the bend. Swiper the Fox unwound late, Move Faster accelerated consistently to win nicely. Move faster is yet to see a good track, but looks to be one to keep an eye on throughout the spring.
Batman - Didn't get the best trip, but ran home well living up to the trial form.
Swiper the Fox - Big finishing burst, had to work around the bend, will be stronger over more grounds. I think the conditions suited him.
Freedom - Worked hard to find a place to settle, but did find a handy position. Didn't show much at the finish, probably related to the conditions.
Hayleys Comet - Was far off them when he got a chance to run, but he did seem to come home pretty well, probably not the worst effort on display.
Australia - Sydney
Ming Dynasty
Magic Shaft - Didn't get a lot of luck, wide and probably over raced slightly before fading towards the end. Will need to improve to figure over 2000m. Probably hurt by 59kg in handicap conditions.
Current Odds - Spring Championship Stakes $31
Also Nominated - Caulfield Guineas
Overall I liked what I saw from all of the first 5 finishers, certainly the winner Tatra looked good and carried 58.5kg, and Honorius had a pretty strong finish into Third.
Current Odds
Spring Championship Stake
Tatra $9
Honorius $14
Proverb $14
Rowie $18
Sumarand $18
Golden Rose
Sumarand $41
Chelmsford Stakes
Danleigh was great in winning, and Secret admirer was a strong second. Lights of heaven didn't seem to do a lot, but will improve over more distance and in handicap conditions. Maules Creek showed a decent finish into 5th.
Current odds
Danleigh - Epsom $21 (Hard to have in a Handicap)
Secret Admirer - Epsom $11, Caulfield Cup $41, Cox Plate $21
Lights of Heaven - The Metropolitan $16, Caulfield Cup $31, Cox Plate $51, Melbourne Cup $51
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31, Caulfield Cup $101
Furious Stakes
Pussy Willow - Didn't seem like a great run, she was probably hurt by the pace and never really got into the race.
The first three (Dear Demi, Meidung, and Jade Marauder) all comfortably pulled away from the field, and looked good in their relative positions. Dear Demi won reasonably well, but all three impressed.
Current Odds
Pussy Willow - Nominated 1000 Guineas, will need to improve
Dear Demi - Golden Rose $26
Meidung - Golden Rose $26
Jade Marauder - - Golden Rose $26
Last at Sydney
Quintessenial - As good as a last can be (actually finished second last), certainly didn't get all the favours in the running and probably faded when he got blocked going for a run. I would forgive this run and look for value next start over more distance.
Epsom -$51
Caulfield Cup - $31
Melbourne Cup - $101
Australia - Melbourne
Lets Elope
Zurella - Awesome performance. She really had to fight hard for a run, and looked great when she got one. 55kg under handicap conditions, but as the races get harder she might not take too much of a penalty relative to the other runners she will face. Despite her second in the Oaks and strong Derby run, I felt that the 1400-1600m range was always her most suited distance. I expect she is probably heading to a Caulfield Cup, but she could also prove dangerous in a Myer Classic or Emirates Mile type race.
(Miss) Artistic - Not much between the Ritchie stablemates in the Oaks, but Artistic won, then had some success in Queensland and ended up carrying far more weight over the weekend. Still it was a pretty good performance. She will get better over more ground.
Hi Belle, kept on fighting into second. Lady Melksham fought well into fifth. Yosei unwound fairly late to beat Artistic and finish 6th.
Zurella - Caulfield Cup $31, Melbourne Cup $41
Artistic - Caulfield Cup $61 (good odds, she will improve), Melbourne Cup $101
Yosei - Caulfield Cup $151, Epsom $16, Cox Plate $101
Danehill Stakes
Snitzerland has an awesome name and was very impressive pulling away for victory after struggling for a run. Thought the first three were all pretty good and Swift Exit finished strongly for 5th at big odds.
Makybe Diva
The pace looked a little slow, but it was still an impressive win by Southern Speed to hold out the fast finishing Manighar. Lots of contenders here, the most notable Moudre running well and finishing third. December Draw was possibly a little unlucky, but ran on reasonably well. Efficient travelled wide and just didn't have a lot of finish. Moyuran picked up with pace over the last 100m. Dance With Her finished well late. Second Effort looked very good late coming from wide on the track (I think, I cant read my notes here).
The ones I would watch most closely are probably ones you already know to watch Manighar, Southern Speed, and I would like to see the improvement Second Effort takes from this.
Current Odds
December Draw- Caulfield Cup $26, Melbourne Cup $21, Cox Plate $26
Dance With Her - The Metropolitan $61, Caulfield Cup $101, Melbourne Cup $81
Efficient - The Metropolitan $21 (hard to recommend, will improve over more distance), Caulfield Cup $51, Melbourne Cup $41, Cox Plate $81
Manighar - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $14
Moudre - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $31, Cox Plate $51
Moyuran - The Metropolitan $26, Caulfield Cup $41, Melbourne Cup $51, Cox Plate $101
Southern Speed - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $21
Bobbie Lewis Quality
I think Anabandana is done, I was actually surprised to see her racing, I thought she had retired last year.
Mosheen will be better over more distance.
Sofitel Handicap
I thought the winner Excluded won very well and was pretty happy with what I saw from the first three (Exceptionally and Prizum).
Innocent Lady - was pretty average, she just faded on the bend.
The Jungle Boy - Had a very nice run, but didn't show much when it was time to really race.
Single Minded - Probably lasted 100m more than Innocent Lady. Will improve with more distance.
Current Odds
Excluded - The Metropolitan $18, Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $51
Exceptionally - Melbourne Cup $61
Single Minded - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $81 (certainly capable if makes the field)
Thursday, 12 April 2012
Can Jimmy Choux win the Easter Handicap?
We approach the final Group 1 of the season with the same favourite as we approached the first Group 1 of the season. Veyron has had a great year, but if he was to carry the same weight as Jimmy Choux I don't think this would be a debate, Green Supreme was great a couple of weeks ago but is not yet at the class of these other two. The handicap conditions make this race very competitive and as you scroll down the list of nominees you see a lot of runners at their respective weight who can be competitive. The draw has made this race interesting, as had the threat of rain (I am going to try to avoid making a weather prediction this week, as most weeks I am wrong).
All things been equal Jimmy Choux wins this race. Critics will point to his first up record, but his last fresh start was a close second behind Mufhasa at Group 1 level, this fresh start may be slightly different because of his upcoming trip to Australia and this may be just a run to shake off the cobwebs and get him ready for those races. I don't think any ground will be an issue for Jimmy Choux, he has drawn 10, which is not a concern.
Veyron has had a great year, he will carry 2kg less than Jimmy Choux, he was a close second behind Scarlett Lady last start (who would have been considered by many on par with JC last spring before her injury). This was shaping up like a great race as Veyron also can handle all conditions, he has a fantastic record at Ellerslie, loves 1600m, goes very well after a bit of freshening. If the 2kg penalty was not enough to make you consider these two equal the barrier draw has really worked against Veyron and brings things back towards Jimmy Choux's favour.
Green Supreme is the other candidate with great potential. He won easily over 1400m last start and will take on the extra 200m here. He looked very good building up over ground before his 6th in the Wellington Cup. His 1600m and Auckland records and sound, and he has won twice on slow tracks. The handicap conditions will give him 55kg to carry which is only 500 grams more than he carried to victory last start. How good is he relative to Jimmy and Veyron is the big unknown. He has won carrying more at lower grades over the past couple of months, he has quickly risen through the grades and is suited to these Open handicap conditions, he is very well drawn to be a major factor.
There are two other runners backing up from last weeks Group 1, the handicap conditions should suit both Postman's Daughter and Fleur de Lune. Fleur de Lune was very close to a win last week, and has secured a good draw in this big field. Postman's Daughter will be .5kg better off this week in weight relative to FdL, who will carry 2.5kg less that the set weight from last week. Postman's Daughter was consistent before her 8th last week and might be ready for a break, Fleur de Lune seems to be coming on and should be well set for this despite the run last week. A little softness underfoot should not concern either runner, FdL goes better at Ellerslie. Both are contenders here, but Fleur de Lune is the better of the two, I am still not sure she will be able to better Green Supreme given the similar weights the two will carry.
Vonusti is the other Group 1 winner in the race (Unless Time Keeper makes it in), he is not really in that Group 1 form, and has not really been as consistent since Boxing Day. The distance he has run over has gone up and down over the last few months, he is pretty well weighted at 55.5kg and should be set for 1600m right now, he is always a danger at Ellerslie.
Others who stand out include Justanexcuse who seems to be getting back to close to his best form. He has been carrying significantly more since the Coupland's Mile which was a comparable weight. Most of his experience is going left but he did win well under a big weight last start. Might be one for odds if the rain comes. He meets Green Supreme relatively 1kg better off than when the two met last with Green Supreme winning by 1 length, is that enough to make this interesting?
It has been about 18 months since Atom Cat won his last race. However he might be worth considering if the conditions take a turn down. He enjoys Ellerslie, has a cosy barrier 4th draw, and has a decent 2nd up record. Actually most of Atom Cat's victories have come early in campaigns, so the resuming 4th possibly showed some promise as it relates to this race. He is carrying 53.5kg in this field which is a very significant light weight.
Of the Richard Collett trained runners I am leaning towards Riotous, he has a weight advantage over his stablemate Alegrio and is drawn better to really compete. Both have similar Ellerslie records, and I imagine that if it is wet the weight advantage should equalise them. I really enjoyed the win here last start, I would stay away if wet, but 52kg compares well to the second here during Auckland Cup week.
Steel Giant is a pretty good horse to only carry 52kg here. A course and distance win on a rain effected track was decent but the field was ripped up with scratchings that day. I wouldn't consider him on a wet track, the draw is a put off and at weights Justanexcuse is effectively dropping the same amount after beating him soundly last start.
Sum Up has been pretty good this season. 1600m is probably short of his best distance, but at weight on a wet track might give some value. This would be by far the biggest win of his career, but he has gone close in decent races and was not a disgrace at Group 1 level. He likes it right handed and recent performances at Ellerslie have shown merit.
Jetset Lad was another I liked, but was put off by the draw. 1600m should really suit, he can factor, but I cant see him winning.
When it comes down to making picks I really think it will depend on how fit Jimmy Choux is and how he will carry that big weight. I think he is better here than Veyron because of Veyron's draw, the next biggest threat is Green Supreme (considering I think he is more suited than Fleur de Lune), I am simply not sure how to compare these two runners. Overall record there is no comparison, at the same weight I would like Jimmy all day. In regard to Green Supreme he has still not really faced a challenge on this level, his next biggest challenge was the Wellington Cup recently, before this it was at 3rd at Group 1 level at age 3, although he has been winning fairly handily this prep, the field he will face on Saturday is very strong. He beat a number of runners here last start, but I still feel like despite the Jimmy Choux question marks I have to look his way in this race, he has been there before and is a proven commodity.
First - Jimmy Choux
Second - Green Supreme
Third - Veyron - He is in great form and loves Ellerslie
Fourth - Atom Cat - I like him more if the rain comes.
All things been equal Jimmy Choux wins this race. Critics will point to his first up record, but his last fresh start was a close second behind Mufhasa at Group 1 level, this fresh start may be slightly different because of his upcoming trip to Australia and this may be just a run to shake off the cobwebs and get him ready for those races. I don't think any ground will be an issue for Jimmy Choux, he has drawn 10, which is not a concern.
Veyron has had a great year, he will carry 2kg less than Jimmy Choux, he was a close second behind Scarlett Lady last start (who would have been considered by many on par with JC last spring before her injury). This was shaping up like a great race as Veyron also can handle all conditions, he has a fantastic record at Ellerslie, loves 1600m, goes very well after a bit of freshening. If the 2kg penalty was not enough to make you consider these two equal the barrier draw has really worked against Veyron and brings things back towards Jimmy Choux's favour.
Green Supreme is the other candidate with great potential. He won easily over 1400m last start and will take on the extra 200m here. He looked very good building up over ground before his 6th in the Wellington Cup. His 1600m and Auckland records and sound, and he has won twice on slow tracks. The handicap conditions will give him 55kg to carry which is only 500 grams more than he carried to victory last start. How good is he relative to Jimmy and Veyron is the big unknown. He has won carrying more at lower grades over the past couple of months, he has quickly risen through the grades and is suited to these Open handicap conditions, he is very well drawn to be a major factor.
There are two other runners backing up from last weeks Group 1, the handicap conditions should suit both Postman's Daughter and Fleur de Lune. Fleur de Lune was very close to a win last week, and has secured a good draw in this big field. Postman's Daughter will be .5kg better off this week in weight relative to FdL, who will carry 2.5kg less that the set weight from last week. Postman's Daughter was consistent before her 8th last week and might be ready for a break, Fleur de Lune seems to be coming on and should be well set for this despite the run last week. A little softness underfoot should not concern either runner, FdL goes better at Ellerslie. Both are contenders here, but Fleur de Lune is the better of the two, I am still not sure she will be able to better Green Supreme given the similar weights the two will carry.
Vonusti is the other Group 1 winner in the race (Unless Time Keeper makes it in), he is not really in that Group 1 form, and has not really been as consistent since Boxing Day. The distance he has run over has gone up and down over the last few months, he is pretty well weighted at 55.5kg and should be set for 1600m right now, he is always a danger at Ellerslie.
Others who stand out include Justanexcuse who seems to be getting back to close to his best form. He has been carrying significantly more since the Coupland's Mile which was a comparable weight. Most of his experience is going left but he did win well under a big weight last start. Might be one for odds if the rain comes. He meets Green Supreme relatively 1kg better off than when the two met last with Green Supreme winning by 1 length, is that enough to make this interesting?
It has been about 18 months since Atom Cat won his last race. However he might be worth considering if the conditions take a turn down. He enjoys Ellerslie, has a cosy barrier 4th draw, and has a decent 2nd up record. Actually most of Atom Cat's victories have come early in campaigns, so the resuming 4th possibly showed some promise as it relates to this race. He is carrying 53.5kg in this field which is a very significant light weight.
Of the Richard Collett trained runners I am leaning towards Riotous, he has a weight advantage over his stablemate Alegrio and is drawn better to really compete. Both have similar Ellerslie records, and I imagine that if it is wet the weight advantage should equalise them. I really enjoyed the win here last start, I would stay away if wet, but 52kg compares well to the second here during Auckland Cup week.
Steel Giant is a pretty good horse to only carry 52kg here. A course and distance win on a rain effected track was decent but the field was ripped up with scratchings that day. I wouldn't consider him on a wet track, the draw is a put off and at weights Justanexcuse is effectively dropping the same amount after beating him soundly last start.
Sum Up has been pretty good this season. 1600m is probably short of his best distance, but at weight on a wet track might give some value. This would be by far the biggest win of his career, but he has gone close in decent races and was not a disgrace at Group 1 level. He likes it right handed and recent performances at Ellerslie have shown merit.
Jetset Lad was another I liked, but was put off by the draw. 1600m should really suit, he can factor, but I cant see him winning.
When it comes down to making picks I really think it will depend on how fit Jimmy Choux is and how he will carry that big weight. I think he is better here than Veyron because of Veyron's draw, the next biggest threat is Green Supreme (considering I think he is more suited than Fleur de Lune), I am simply not sure how to compare these two runners. Overall record there is no comparison, at the same weight I would like Jimmy all day. In regard to Green Supreme he has still not really faced a challenge on this level, his next biggest challenge was the Wellington Cup recently, before this it was at 3rd at Group 1 level at age 3, although he has been winning fairly handily this prep, the field he will face on Saturday is very strong. He beat a number of runners here last start, but I still feel like despite the Jimmy Choux question marks I have to look his way in this race, he has been there before and is a proven commodity.
First - Jimmy Choux
Second - Green Supreme
Third - Veyron - He is in great form and loves Ellerslie
Fourth - Atom Cat - I like him more if the rain comes.
Wednesday, 7 March 2012
Auckland Cup Preview 2012
Amongst the hype of Derby Day you may have missed it, but Titch won his second consecutive Auckland Cup. Preview over. Thanks for reading.
Of course the Auckland Cup is not actually run until later on this afternoon, but Titch ran second in the Nathan's Memorial, a race which has recently been an excellent indicator of Auckland Cup success. It was a close finish, but lucky for him he didn't win, otherwise we would be talking about the Jungle Boy right now. If all of this sounds familiar that is because it is, Titch ran second in this race last year behind Solid Billing (that was another very tight finish on a rain effected track) who went on to run 10th in the Auckland Cup. Forget about Minquar Quaim from two years ago. Three Years ago Spin Around was chased down by Capecover in the Nathan's memorial, he turned the tide the following Wednesday finishing 8 places ahead of Capecover and winning the Cup. Unfortunately, Prize Lady decided to ruin things by not running in the Nathan's Memorial in either 2008 or 2007, running 3rd and 4th in the Auckland Cup prelude (which would now have been the Avondale Cup), she also ran 3rd in that race in 2009.
Where does this leave us in regard to this years Auckland Cup? I really don't know.
A 3200m Open Handicap is a very strange thing. They are so few and far between that many starters will not have run over this distance or run over it very few times. Often prior to running 3200m horses have been racing over 2400m or shorter, that is 800m shorter, so success does not always correlate. It is always interesting to see horses who are 'out of form' when talking about shorter distances stepping up with that further 800m and turning into contenders. Today I wanted to break down the positives and negatives for the runners and look at who can contend.
#1 Six O'Clock News, Barrier 6, 59kg
The Positives
Is back in form recently and actually winning taking out the Wellington Cup (2400m). He has run 5th and 7th in this race in the past when he has been in similar form. Barrier 6 should see him reasonably well placed in the running to avoid any extra distance. The track should be good for him too.
My Concerns
Carrying 59kg effectively rules him out for me. He carried 56kg to win the Wellington Cup, and 59kg when last (at WFA) in Hamilton next start.
#2 Booming, Barrier 20, 58kg
The Positives
He seems to get better with a bit more distance, he looked to improve stepping up from 2000m to 2400m and has placed in his only 3200m start. Auckland also seems to be a track which will see him show an above average performance. Eye catching in the Avondale Cup, was really running on well and drops a kg from that start.
My Concerns
Although solid this campaign, he has not really found the same form from a year ago. He has been close but until the Avondale Cup has not shown his best. He is facing a big field and will be coming from an outside barrier, he would normally look to come from towards to the back, but over 3200m the possibility of racing wide is very real.
#3 Titch, Barrier 12, 57.5kg
The Positives
Clearly a horse capable of winning over 3200m. Ran home well over the finial stages for second in the Nathan's Memorial.Was able to carry the 57.5kg on the weekend when second, and has carried more recently.
My Concerns
Carrying 3kg more than he carries a year ago in this race for victory. Although he is a Group 1 winner, his previous two wins have been for 15k and 20k and at courses abbreviated TAUH and WROA. I googled these to discover they are Wairoa and Tauherenikau, again I turned to Google to discover Wairoa is in the northern Hawkes Bay and Tauherenikau is in Martinborough, which is in the Wairarapa. Whilst I will apologise for my geographical ignorance, it is evident he has not been facing the toughest of competition since his Auckland Cup victory.
#4 Spiro, Barrier 3, 57.5kg
The Positives
Has looked in good form with strong performances carrying more weight in the Wellington and Taranaki Cups. He definitely gets better with racing, this is his 9th start up this time which should see him at peak performance. He stepped back from 2400m in the Wellington Cup to 1800m, and it looked like a few more meters might have been helpful. He showed good fight in Wellington when Six O'Clock News was too good, 3200m will be a first.
My Concerns
He is not only venturing to Ellerslie for the first time, he will be having his first start right handed. Is this a question mark we should be thinking about? It is also his first 3200m start, although he has shown it is likely to not be too big of a concern.
#5 Shez Sensational, Barrier 19, 55kg
The Positives
She will carry only 55kg on a decent surface. She is a dual Group 1 winner this year already and has shown her ability to stay in Queensland last winter.
My Concerns
He run on the weekend, but they have really been addressed by James McDonald after that race. The distance is still a concern, and the wide draw could always lead to an difficult position, but it might be less critical with 3200m to run, particularity given James McDonald's ability to read a race a break from the norm as required, like we saw on Silent Achiever on Saturday.
#6 Single Minded, Barrier 11, 54kg
The Positives
Won the Avondale Cup in strong fashion. Has been very consistent of late rising through the grades as a stayer. He has performed well at Ellerslie and will actually carry less weight here than in either of his last two victories.
My Concerns
He possibly still lacks experience and is still getting used to running against this level of competition. 3200m is an unknown, and this is tougher than either of his last wins in Auckland.
#7 The Jungle Boy, Barrier 17, 54kg
The Positives
Finally broke his duck at Ellerslie with a win in his 11th start, is this the start of a streak? or will there be another gap between victories? He showed a good finish on the weekend and will again reduce his weight by 1.5kg. Placed over 3200m.
My Concerns
His overall record at Ellerslie is no good, although as I have written before there is not really a logical reason for that. He does like a wet surface, he will be unlikely to see that later today.
#8 Blood Brotha, Barrier 8, 54kg
The Positives
New Zealand Cup winner who is only carrying .5kg more from that race. Gets better over more ground. Good third in the Avondale Cup which looked to signal a bit of a return to form. This will be the first time with the same jockey back to back since February 2011. He might be getting back to best form at the right time.
My Concerns
Last two victories have come on Heavy tracks including the New Zealand Cup victory.
#9 Back in Black, Barrier 1, 54kg
The Positives
Last start was his best run since the spring. Will be able to race to his strength and stay handy from the inside barrier.The Jungle Boy broke a long Ellerslie drought on Saturday, maybe he will follow suit. 54kg is a lot lighter than recent runs, may be some merit.
My Concerns
Horrible Ellerslie record, no wins from 16 attempts (like the Jungle Boy it is surprising considering he has an otherwise strong right handed record). Tends to win early, is now 15th up. The biggest race he has won was worth $40k. Yet to win, or place, over 2000m.
#10 Castle Heights, Barrier 21, 54kg
The Positives
Placed in this race a year ago. Was pretty good up until the Avondale Cup. He should be able to show a strongish finish in this race. Down to 54kg which is still 2kg more than a year ago, but much lighter than recent starts.
My Concerns
Has not actually won since 2009. Would have expected a better Avondale Cup run as was looking in better form before that. He is drawn one of the widest,
#11 Loose Change, Barrier 23, 53.5kg
The Positives
Very experienced at 2400m, finishing off races well most of the time recently. Will get a good track which is what he needs. He looks to improve with a bit more racing, so should be ready to put forward a good effort.
My Concerns
Possibly looks a bit outclassed in this field. Limited experience at Ellerslie or on right handed tracks. 53.5kg is light, but has not really been carrying that much more when losing in pretty strong races. Drawn way outside.
#12 Aussieaussieaussie, Barrier 4, 52.5kg
The Positives
Had his best result in the North Island recently, he does tend to get better with a bit of racing, so he could go well in this type of race.
My Concerns
Has never won outside of the South Island. He tends to get better on a wetter surface. He has never won over more than 1800m. Given a lack of strong 2400m performances you have to be concerned about the 3200m trip.
#13 Yours, Barrier 22, 52.5kg
The Positives
Close up to Titch two starts back while carrying 59kgs. Has now had two starts over the distance, with a good performance for 4th in the New Zealand Cup.
My Concerns
Was second last in the Avondale Cup, that was a tough race, but this is tougher, was running on, but will only carry 1kg less.
#14 Options, Barrier 7, 52kg
The Positives
Genuine lightweight chance, in form and has looked good winning on the course. Always a lightweight runner who shows up strong for a race like this. Was very impressive over 2000m winning easily at Matamata. Adjusting well to racing in the North Island.
My Concerns
Longest win/race has only been 2100m, this is a lot further. New to the open handicap level, has been improving but Group 1 level should represent a step up.
#15 Innocent Lady, Barrier 24, 52kg
The Positives
Lightweight chance who has previously looked decent running over 3200m. Was not in great form prior to 4th in this race last year.She is definitely one of those runners when I see the distance I get a bit more interested, and when I see that weight I sort of think "Really! only 52 kilos?"
My Concerns
Far from best form, has had a very bad year to date. Badly drawn. Despite my first reaction I watched the Avondale Cup, I don't think she really can figure here.
#16 Peace Lilly, Barrier 7, 52kg
The Positives
A runner who seems to be getting better at running at open handicap level, the think I like is that while this is a step up from Rating 85, she was at the top of that grade and carrying high weights, the drop to 52kg is very tempting. Has done well at racing and 5 of her 6 wins have been right handed.
My Concerns
She has possibly performed best recently on tracks which are more rain effected, but has a consistent overall record on all tracks. This still seems like a step up in class from the races she has been winning.
#17 Jaffa Jack, Barrier 10, 52kg
The Positives
Jaffa Jack has performed well over more distance, probably 3200m will suit given the strength he has shown over distance on wet tracks.
My Concerns
It is going to be a bit too dry for this stayer to feature. A seven year old with 22 career starts, who has only recently been running at open level, even with the lightweight this is a step up.
#18 Top Spot, Barrier 11, 52kg
The Positives
Has performed well carrying similar weights in races over 2400m. He has performed well at Ellerslie recently, particularly the 3rd in the City of Auckland Cup carrying more weight.
My Concerns
Ideally you would probably want a slightly wetter track to see his best. Last win was first up over 1400m at rating 85 level, this is a lot tougher.
The Picks
Value Win - Options ($12) - Pretty good for a chance to win at that light weight.
Value Place - Top Spot ($9) - I could actually see it winning, but it is a bit tough, it is definitely a place chance and $9 is pretty good value for the place.
Longest shot I can see coming - Top Spot ($31) - If things go right I could see it.
First - Single Minded - ($6.50) - Was so impressive in the Avondale Cup, I can see him going on here and stepping up over 3200m.
Second - Shez Sensational - ($1.40p) - Simply too classy not to be in the picture.
Third - Options - ($4p) - A leightweight should figure here.
Fourth - Spiro - ($5.20p) - I think think he will figure in this race, I think 3200m is looking light the right distance and I can see him winning this.
There are so many chances, I really find it hard to completely rule out anyone under the $21 mark. I think Shez Sensational is clearly the most talented, but there is definitely some concerns from the weekend run.
Of course the Auckland Cup is not actually run until later on this afternoon, but Titch ran second in the Nathan's Memorial, a race which has recently been an excellent indicator of Auckland Cup success. It was a close finish, but lucky for him he didn't win, otherwise we would be talking about the Jungle Boy right now. If all of this sounds familiar that is because it is, Titch ran second in this race last year behind Solid Billing (that was another very tight finish on a rain effected track) who went on to run 10th in the Auckland Cup. Forget about Minquar Quaim from two years ago. Three Years ago Spin Around was chased down by Capecover in the Nathan's memorial, he turned the tide the following Wednesday finishing 8 places ahead of Capecover and winning the Cup. Unfortunately, Prize Lady decided to ruin things by not running in the Nathan's Memorial in either 2008 or 2007, running 3rd and 4th in the Auckland Cup prelude (which would now have been the Avondale Cup), she also ran 3rd in that race in 2009.
Where does this leave us in regard to this years Auckland Cup? I really don't know.
A 3200m Open Handicap is a very strange thing. They are so few and far between that many starters will not have run over this distance or run over it very few times. Often prior to running 3200m horses have been racing over 2400m or shorter, that is 800m shorter, so success does not always correlate. It is always interesting to see horses who are 'out of form' when talking about shorter distances stepping up with that further 800m and turning into contenders. Today I wanted to break down the positives and negatives for the runners and look at who can contend.
#1 Six O'Clock News, Barrier 6, 59kg
The Positives
Is back in form recently and actually winning taking out the Wellington Cup (2400m). He has run 5th and 7th in this race in the past when he has been in similar form. Barrier 6 should see him reasonably well placed in the running to avoid any extra distance. The track should be good for him too.
My Concerns
Carrying 59kg effectively rules him out for me. He carried 56kg to win the Wellington Cup, and 59kg when last (at WFA) in Hamilton next start.
#2 Booming, Barrier 20, 58kg
The Positives
He seems to get better with a bit more distance, he looked to improve stepping up from 2000m to 2400m and has placed in his only 3200m start. Auckland also seems to be a track which will see him show an above average performance. Eye catching in the Avondale Cup, was really running on well and drops a kg from that start.
My Concerns
Although solid this campaign, he has not really found the same form from a year ago. He has been close but until the Avondale Cup has not shown his best. He is facing a big field and will be coming from an outside barrier, he would normally look to come from towards to the back, but over 3200m the possibility of racing wide is very real.
#3 Titch, Barrier 12, 57.5kg
The Positives
Clearly a horse capable of winning over 3200m. Ran home well over the finial stages for second in the Nathan's Memorial.Was able to carry the 57.5kg on the weekend when second, and has carried more recently.
My Concerns
Carrying 3kg more than he carries a year ago in this race for victory. Although he is a Group 1 winner, his previous two wins have been for 15k and 20k and at courses abbreviated TAUH and WROA. I googled these to discover they are Wairoa and Tauherenikau, again I turned to Google to discover Wairoa is in the northern Hawkes Bay and Tauherenikau is in Martinborough, which is in the Wairarapa. Whilst I will apologise for my geographical ignorance, it is evident he has not been facing the toughest of competition since his Auckland Cup victory.
#4 Spiro, Barrier 3, 57.5kg
The Positives
Has looked in good form with strong performances carrying more weight in the Wellington and Taranaki Cups. He definitely gets better with racing, this is his 9th start up this time which should see him at peak performance. He stepped back from 2400m in the Wellington Cup to 1800m, and it looked like a few more meters might have been helpful. He showed good fight in Wellington when Six O'Clock News was too good, 3200m will be a first.
My Concerns
He is not only venturing to Ellerslie for the first time, he will be having his first start right handed. Is this a question mark we should be thinking about? It is also his first 3200m start, although he has shown it is likely to not be too big of a concern.
#5 Shez Sensational, Barrier 19, 55kg
The Positives
She will carry only 55kg on a decent surface. She is a dual Group 1 winner this year already and has shown her ability to stay in Queensland last winter.
My Concerns
He run on the weekend, but they have really been addressed by James McDonald after that race. The distance is still a concern, and the wide draw could always lead to an difficult position, but it might be less critical with 3200m to run, particularity given James McDonald's ability to read a race a break from the norm as required, like we saw on Silent Achiever on Saturday.
#6 Single Minded, Barrier 11, 54kg
The Positives
Won the Avondale Cup in strong fashion. Has been very consistent of late rising through the grades as a stayer. He has performed well at Ellerslie and will actually carry less weight here than in either of his last two victories.
My Concerns
He possibly still lacks experience and is still getting used to running against this level of competition. 3200m is an unknown, and this is tougher than either of his last wins in Auckland.
#7 The Jungle Boy, Barrier 17, 54kg
The Positives
Finally broke his duck at Ellerslie with a win in his 11th start, is this the start of a streak? or will there be another gap between victories? He showed a good finish on the weekend and will again reduce his weight by 1.5kg. Placed over 3200m.
My Concerns
His overall record at Ellerslie is no good, although as I have written before there is not really a logical reason for that. He does like a wet surface, he will be unlikely to see that later today.
#8 Blood Brotha, Barrier 8, 54kg
The Positives
New Zealand Cup winner who is only carrying .5kg more from that race. Gets better over more ground. Good third in the Avondale Cup which looked to signal a bit of a return to form. This will be the first time with the same jockey back to back since February 2011. He might be getting back to best form at the right time.
My Concerns
Last two victories have come on Heavy tracks including the New Zealand Cup victory.
#9 Back in Black, Barrier 1, 54kg
The Positives
Last start was his best run since the spring. Will be able to race to his strength and stay handy from the inside barrier.The Jungle Boy broke a long Ellerslie drought on Saturday, maybe he will follow suit. 54kg is a lot lighter than recent runs, may be some merit.
My Concerns
Horrible Ellerslie record, no wins from 16 attempts (like the Jungle Boy it is surprising considering he has an otherwise strong right handed record). Tends to win early, is now 15th up. The biggest race he has won was worth $40k. Yet to win, or place, over 2000m.
#10 Castle Heights, Barrier 21, 54kg
The Positives
Placed in this race a year ago. Was pretty good up until the Avondale Cup. He should be able to show a strongish finish in this race. Down to 54kg which is still 2kg more than a year ago, but much lighter than recent starts.
My Concerns
Has not actually won since 2009. Would have expected a better Avondale Cup run as was looking in better form before that. He is drawn one of the widest,
#11 Loose Change, Barrier 23, 53.5kg
The Positives
Very experienced at 2400m, finishing off races well most of the time recently. Will get a good track which is what he needs. He looks to improve with a bit more racing, so should be ready to put forward a good effort.
My Concerns
Possibly looks a bit outclassed in this field. Limited experience at Ellerslie or on right handed tracks. 53.5kg is light, but has not really been carrying that much more when losing in pretty strong races. Drawn way outside.
#12 Aussieaussieaussie, Barrier 4, 52.5kg
The Positives
Had his best result in the North Island recently, he does tend to get better with a bit of racing, so he could go well in this type of race.
My Concerns
Has never won outside of the South Island. He tends to get better on a wetter surface. He has never won over more than 1800m. Given a lack of strong 2400m performances you have to be concerned about the 3200m trip.
#13 Yours, Barrier 22, 52.5kg
The Positives
Close up to Titch two starts back while carrying 59kgs. Has now had two starts over the distance, with a good performance for 4th in the New Zealand Cup.
My Concerns
Was second last in the Avondale Cup, that was a tough race, but this is tougher, was running on, but will only carry 1kg less.
#14 Options, Barrier 7, 52kg
The Positives
Genuine lightweight chance, in form and has looked good winning on the course. Always a lightweight runner who shows up strong for a race like this. Was very impressive over 2000m winning easily at Matamata. Adjusting well to racing in the North Island.
My Concerns
Longest win/race has only been 2100m, this is a lot further. New to the open handicap level, has been improving but Group 1 level should represent a step up.
#15 Innocent Lady, Barrier 24, 52kg
The Positives
Lightweight chance who has previously looked decent running over 3200m. Was not in great form prior to 4th in this race last year.She is definitely one of those runners when I see the distance I get a bit more interested, and when I see that weight I sort of think "Really! only 52 kilos?"
My Concerns
Far from best form, has had a very bad year to date. Badly drawn. Despite my first reaction I watched the Avondale Cup, I don't think she really can figure here.
#16 Peace Lilly, Barrier 7, 52kg
The Positives
A runner who seems to be getting better at running at open handicap level, the think I like is that while this is a step up from Rating 85, she was at the top of that grade and carrying high weights, the drop to 52kg is very tempting. Has done well at racing and 5 of her 6 wins have been right handed.
My Concerns
She has possibly performed best recently on tracks which are more rain effected, but has a consistent overall record on all tracks. This still seems like a step up in class from the races she has been winning.
#17 Jaffa Jack, Barrier 10, 52kg
The Positives
Jaffa Jack has performed well over more distance, probably 3200m will suit given the strength he has shown over distance on wet tracks.
My Concerns
It is going to be a bit too dry for this stayer to feature. A seven year old with 22 career starts, who has only recently been running at open level, even with the lightweight this is a step up.
#18 Top Spot, Barrier 11, 52kg
The Positives
Has performed well carrying similar weights in races over 2400m. He has performed well at Ellerslie recently, particularly the 3rd in the City of Auckland Cup carrying more weight.
My Concerns
Ideally you would probably want a slightly wetter track to see his best. Last win was first up over 1400m at rating 85 level, this is a lot tougher.
The Picks
Value Win - Options ($12) - Pretty good for a chance to win at that light weight.
Value Place - Top Spot ($9) - I could actually see it winning, but it is a bit tough, it is definitely a place chance and $9 is pretty good value for the place.
Longest shot I can see coming - Top Spot ($31) - If things go right I could see it.
First - Single Minded - ($6.50) - Was so impressive in the Avondale Cup, I can see him going on here and stepping up over 3200m.
Second - Shez Sensational - ($1.40p) - Simply too classy not to be in the picture.
Third - Options - ($4p) - A leightweight should figure here.
Fourth - Spiro - ($5.20p) - I think think he will figure in this race, I think 3200m is looking light the right distance and I can see him winning this.
There are so many chances, I really find it hard to completely rule out anyone under the $21 mark. I think Shez Sensational is clearly the most talented, but there is definitely some concerns from the weekend run.
Thursday, 1 March 2012
2012 New Zealand Derby Preview
This Saturday we are sure to witness a great New Zealand Derby. I have decided to dust off the gimmick I used for the Melbourne Cup last year and pick the result from 17th to first. The field is set, the odds are out, the main unknown is the weather, it is looking reasonably dicey with rain forecast leading up to and on the day. Could we be looking at a third rain effected derby in the last four years? Last year it didn't matter, Jimmy Choux was simply more talented than the remainder of the field, this year? well I think this is already going to be a close race between the main contenders, I think there are some longer shots who can figure, and I think rain could be a great leveler.
(Note: I will be highlighting races to watch for each of the runners, you can watch these by following the link to the NZ Racing website, you will have to sign up, but it is free)
17th Guess What
Jockey: Noel Harris
Barrier: 12
Best race to watch: He ran fourth behind Shuka, Ocean Park and Silent Achiever in the Waikato Guineas, It was a pretty good effort where he kept trying to fight.
What has he done since? Given the guineas fight it is hard to understand the last place without any fight in the Avondale Guineas a couple of weeks later, he has again only had two weeks off, so it is hard to know if you should expect a better effort.
Best case: On the Waikato run you might expect him to travel well and run home well. He may take a lead and holding it until after the turn only to be out sprinted by the big guns falling down to 7th.
16th Barney
Jockey: Craig Grylls
Barrier: 17
Best Race to Watch: The Mad Butcher Championship Stake Prelude, I know his odds made a move for the win a couple of starts later at Matamata, but that was a good Third to a good horse in Duckworth Lewis. He ran well over the 2100m and seemed to find a bit more when he needed it over the last 200m.
What has he done since? He has ran against some good horses without the success, but it is important to note he has been racing at a high level. His win was over 2000m, but it was a $5,000 maiden, when stepping back up in the Waikato Guineas he seemed to fight to the line, but was not a contender. Barrier 17 will worry, has been reasonably handy over the last three, he may find himself in no mans land on Saturday.
Best Case: Is 3 wide, but finds cover, never gives up and beats a couple of tired ones into 12th. His connections have a fun day seeing their horse in the Derby.
15th Mr Chez
Jockey: Sam Spratt
Barrier: 2
Best race to watch: Two starts back at Waikato in the New Zealand Bloodstock Premier he looked good, he really dominated a Rating 65 field over 2100m (well everyone except for Sir Tane), but that is what you would probably expect from a Victorian Derby runner at Rating 65 level.
What has he done since? Was not as good in the Avondale Guineas, finishing well behind Roamin for 6th and possibly delayed Colorado Sun from making a run to beat him.
Best case: He recaptures the consistency which saw him run 3rd in the Geelong Classic, he shows more of a finish and excels over 2400m to slide into 6th place.
13th Colorado Sun
Jockey: Patrick Holmes
Barrier: 13
Best race to watch: Irwins Truck and Bus Sales 1580 It was a pretty good third after getting away slowly, there seemed to be pace on and he was able to go past most of the field to hit the lead, he finished third, but still seemed to run on well.
What has he done since? Had a race in the Avondale Guineas and was handily beaten by six derby starters, the excuse may be that he was hindered for a good run, he did seem to move a bit when he got space, but at that stage it was a bit too late.
Best Case: Will likely go back from barrier 13 and be close to Silent Achiever, the best case is to hope for the speed to be on a bit and to follow the horse who has a nose for the finish line as far as possibly before fading into 8th.
12th Zurella
Jockey:
Barrier: 7
Best Race to watch: If you had a look at the Sir Tristram Fillies earlier to focus on other runners, have another look at Zurella's impressive victory. It looks a bit closer than it is, technically she only won by a long head, but she was heading in the right direction at the end. I particularly liked the extra effort over the last 50 meters to seal victory. The horses she beat that day were as good as any other 3YO field assembled this season other than the 1000 and 2000 guineas and probably the Eight Carat Classic.
What has she done since? That was her last start, it expelled any concerns about 2000m, but maybe 2400m is still concerning, also the predicted weather is a worry given the Royal Stakes result.
Best Case: The weather gods smile and the overnight rain stays away and sun is prevalent to burn the revellers and keep the track dry, she is able to get out of the barrier well and travel well, she is challenged about 300m out by Silent Achiever and Rock'n'Pop after she hits the lead but she is able to dig in and hold on to beat them in a close photo. I just feel that one of the main contenders is likely to falter and given the rain forecast I think she could be the one (if the rain stays away I see her around 4th)
11th Nine Pin
Jockey: Danielle Johnson
Barrier: 1
Best Race to watch: Have a look at his last start in the Collett Racing Stables 2200m, A pretty good second, close to a victory, but showed pretty good fight.
What has he done since? That was his last start it was about two weeks ago.
Best case: I actually quite like this horse, I think he is consistent and I really thought he would be higher in this list, but there is probably just a bit too much class here to put him higher. The best case could involve him getting out of barrier one well and staying handy to show the same fight and consistency into a top 5 finish.
10th Jeroboam
Jockey: TBA
Barrier:10
Best race to watch: The Auckland Co-Op Taxi's mile in December, he ran a pretty good third, and looked to be running on. The main reason to watch that race is that you get to see Silent Achiever win her first race.
What has he done since? He was able to break maidens next start, he ran a good looking second on Avondale Guineas day over 2100m, again he showed signs of hitting the line well.
Best case: He goes well at Ellerslie, he races better handy. If he is able to find a nice trailing run he might be able to stick with the leaders and hold on as they pull away to finish 5th.
9th Carrick
Jockey: Leith Innes
Barrier: 15
Best Race to watch: The Avondale Guineas is probably the best display. It was a good third, but he still trailed Shuka and Silent Achiever. He seemed to go very early in that race and was able to hold on well.
What has he done since? This is his first race since then, he will be better for the start over 2100m.
Best case: He again is not one who has looked to push forward in races, the lack of speed, may change up the tactics, but should at least give him time to find somewhere to settle. I can't really separate Travolta and Carrick, both look decent, but hard to see him featuring in the finish, possibly 3rd or 4th as a best case.
7th Travolta
Jockey: Mark Hills
Barrier: 14
Best Race to Watch: Have a look at him winning over 1600m in Wellington three starts back, he continued to lift to victory on a dead track.
What has he done since? He ran a pretty good fourth in the Avondale guineas after failing at Rating 75 level first time over more than 1600m.
Best Case: I really thought this horse looked great before the Avondale Guineas, he seemed taller and bigger, and looked ready to go. His forth was reasonable and he ran on well, but barrier 14 is a bit off putting. Again the lack of speed may suit and allow him to find cover, if he is able to wind up he could ruin or add value to a few Trifectas by running 3rd.
6th Ocean Park
Jockey: Chad Ormsby
Barrier: 4
Best Race to watch: He was amazing winning the Phil Cataldo Bloodstock Wellington Stakes. Wow, he just kept finding and left them all in his wake.
What has he done since? He looked good in Waikato but was outgunned by Silent Achiever.
Best Case: Barrier four should suit, I am sure they would like to have a eye on Silent Achiever, and typically he has shown strong finishes from distance behind the leaders which is similar to the filly, but from that draw he could put himself in a nice handy position only a few back on the rial, so it will be interesting. The best case is a nice trip, saving his run, showing the ability to hold back and make a late charge like that race in Wellington. He is strong and consistent, rain is a question mark, but he might be too powerful. The rain is a concern enough for me to drop him a couple of spots from where I have him on a good track (3rd behind Rock'n'pop and Silent Achiever).
5nd Rock'n'Pop
Jockey: Matthew Cameron
Barrier: 9
Best Race to Watch: Have a look at his last start against the older horses at WFA level. Forget Shez Sensational, she smashed'em. The pace was off, he was last on the turn and continued to warm up coming home, looking great hitting the line and probably making some ground.
What has he done since? That was his last start, he has had three weeks off, which appears to suit.
Best Case: I read they are going to want to ride him a bit more handy (I can't remember where so I can't include a link), that may suit from barrier 9 you can expect him three or back, with that finish and a bit more distance this strong colt overpowers them and keeps giving making it impossible to Silent Achiever and Ocean Park to catch him. Rain might be the biggest concern which is why I have dropped him from where I would see him in a dry track (2nd), I think if he is handy without much pace on he could still really finish strongly and not be caught.
4th Red Shift
Jockey:
Barrier: 5
Best Race to Watch: Westbury Stud New Zealand-made Stayers 2100m. He beat an interesting field comprising of a couple of competitors he will face Saturday and a couple of others who have raced in other feature races.He had to work for a run, took a while to wind up, but was coming home strongly.
What has he done since? Forgive the next start at Ellerslie, it was not the best effort, but he seemed to get away awkwardly, he still showed fight and covered the 2100m well. He really took a while to wind up, probably 300m before he really started making ground over the final 100m, maybe the extra Derby distance is a blessing.
Best Case: He gets out of the barriers well and stays the the first half of the field. He winds up well and really puts on a show as others are not staying the 2400m lifting to finish 2nd.
3rd Shuka
Jockey: Hayden Tinsley
Barrier: 16th
Best Race to Watch: Watch the Avondale Guineas again, while I think his chances her are hurt by the fact that Silent Achiever is cruising home. I watched that race live, I thought he was gone at the 150m mark which was close to where I was sitting, but he found more and lifted past Carrick for second. It is not that evident on video but live I thought he was going to finish fourth, and he showed a good finish and fight.
What has he done since? That was his last start, he is very consistent and should be in the mix again.
Best Case: Barrier 16 did concern, but there is not much pace in this race which may allow him to get into the first few and a comfortable position, even if he leads I don't think the pace will be too frantic. Hayden Tinsley is a great big race rider and wont panic if things don't start well. He actually reminds me a bit of Military Move from a couple of years ago, consistent without winning, chased home the derby favourite a few times, the race went his way on the day and he was able to take off and win, it is an interesting parallel. Don't worry about the wet either which is why I have bumped him to third.
2nd Chicharita
Jockey
Barrier: 11
Best Race to Watch: New Zealand Bloodstock Royal Stakes (Group 2), She won well, beating Planet Rock and Zurella (who I think have excuses), as well as Our Famous Eve (who went on to perform at Group 1 Level) and the handy Joy's Choice. She ran home beautifully for the victory in that event.
What has she done since? Raced in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic against a good field, on a good track and finished 6th. She was in the first bunch and beat all the horses she was supposed to. She was beaten by five fillies who have had impressive seasons, but I would have liked to see her go a bit better there to figure here.
Best Case: She goes well in Auckland, barrier 11 will suit, and will likely be amongst the top six favourites on Derby Day. The forecast rain will suit, as will the return to a right handed track. She is able to wind up on the turn and explode late to pass Silent Achiever on the line for victory in a best case.
1st Silent Achiever
Jockey: James McDonald
Barrier: 8
Best race to watch: Her beating Ocean Park in the Waikato Guineas, she showed everything you would want to see from your Derby Champion. She had to find a gap and fight through some traffic, she chased down a top horse and found enough to win.
What has she done since? Had a very easy time winning the Avondale Guineas, was really eased to the line after chasing down the competition from her usual rare position.
Best Case: Clearly winning, but the best case would involve James McDonald unleashing all of her significant power and coasting across the line 4 lengths clear of her rivals. She will handle the wet if it comes, barrier eight wont concern she should get a nice trip in the second half of the field.
(Note: I will be highlighting races to watch for each of the runners, you can watch these by following the link to the NZ Racing website, you will have to sign up, but it is free)
17th Guess What
Jockey: Noel Harris
Barrier: 12
Best race to watch: He ran fourth behind Shuka, Ocean Park and Silent Achiever in the Waikato Guineas, It was a pretty good effort where he kept trying to fight.
What has he done since? Given the guineas fight it is hard to understand the last place without any fight in the Avondale Guineas a couple of weeks later, he has again only had two weeks off, so it is hard to know if you should expect a better effort.
Best case: On the Waikato run you might expect him to travel well and run home well. He may take a lead and holding it until after the turn only to be out sprinted by the big guns falling down to 7th.
16th Barney
Jockey: Craig Grylls
Barrier: 17
Best Race to Watch: The Mad Butcher Championship Stake Prelude, I know his odds made a move for the win a couple of starts later at Matamata, but that was a good Third to a good horse in Duckworth Lewis. He ran well over the 2100m and seemed to find a bit more when he needed it over the last 200m.
What has he done since? He has ran against some good horses without the success, but it is important to note he has been racing at a high level. His win was over 2000m, but it was a $5,000 maiden, when stepping back up in the Waikato Guineas he seemed to fight to the line, but was not a contender. Barrier 17 will worry, has been reasonably handy over the last three, he may find himself in no mans land on Saturday.
Best Case: Is 3 wide, but finds cover, never gives up and beats a couple of tired ones into 12th. His connections have a fun day seeing their horse in the Derby.
15th Mr Chez
Jockey: Sam Spratt
Barrier: 2
Best race to watch: Two starts back at Waikato in the New Zealand Bloodstock Premier he looked good, he really dominated a Rating 65 field over 2100m (well everyone except for Sir Tane), but that is what you would probably expect from a Victorian Derby runner at Rating 65 level.
What has he done since? Was not as good in the Avondale Guineas, finishing well behind Roamin for 6th and possibly delayed Colorado Sun from making a run to beat him.
Best case: He recaptures the consistency which saw him run 3rd in the Geelong Classic, he shows more of a finish and excels over 2400m to slide into 6th place.
14th Roamin
Jockey: Trudy Thornton
Barrier: 6
Best race to watch: Kate and 'The Master' 2100 , I liked this first victory, it was a big field, not really of the same caliber he will face on Saturday, but Leith Innes did a great job finding a place to settle and the horse really lifted and responded to challenges over the final 250m.
What has he done since: He went to Auckland and didn't do a lot, followed by another win at Rating 65 level over 2000m at Te Awamutu, he then stepped up in the Avondale Guineas running a fairly close 5th behind four derby starters. He didn't look too bad that day, but looked far short of the class of Silent Achiever.
Best case: The barrier should suit and he may get a similar trip to the race in Hamilton, which would be an improvement on some of his recent starts. He is able to put on a show but finds himself dropping backwards over the final 200m into 9th. Auckland has been a bit of a troubled spot for this horse, which might be simply representative of the level of competition he faces when he races here.
13th Colorado Sun
Jockey: Patrick Holmes
Barrier: 13
Best race to watch: Irwins Truck and Bus Sales 1580 It was a pretty good third after getting away slowly, there seemed to be pace on and he was able to go past most of the field to hit the lead, he finished third, but still seemed to run on well.
What has he done since? Had a race in the Avondale Guineas and was handily beaten by six derby starters, the excuse may be that he was hindered for a good run, he did seem to move a bit when he got space, but at that stage it was a bit too late.
Best Case: Will likely go back from barrier 13 and be close to Silent Achiever, the best case is to hope for the speed to be on a bit and to follow the horse who has a nose for the finish line as far as possibly before fading into 8th.
12th Zurella
Jockey:
Barrier: 7
Best Race to watch: If you had a look at the Sir Tristram Fillies earlier to focus on other runners, have another look at Zurella's impressive victory. It looks a bit closer than it is, technically she only won by a long head, but she was heading in the right direction at the end. I particularly liked the extra effort over the last 50 meters to seal victory. The horses she beat that day were as good as any other 3YO field assembled this season other than the 1000 and 2000 guineas and probably the Eight Carat Classic.
What has she done since? That was her last start, it expelled any concerns about 2000m, but maybe 2400m is still concerning, also the predicted weather is a worry given the Royal Stakes result.
Best Case: The weather gods smile and the overnight rain stays away and sun is prevalent to burn the revellers and keep the track dry, she is able to get out of the barrier well and travel well, she is challenged about 300m out by Silent Achiever and Rock'n'Pop after she hits the lead but she is able to dig in and hold on to beat them in a close photo. I just feel that one of the main contenders is likely to falter and given the rain forecast I think she could be the one (if the rain stays away I see her around 4th)
11th Nine Pin
Jockey: Danielle Johnson
Barrier: 1
Best Race to watch: Have a look at his last start in the Collett Racing Stables 2200m, A pretty good second, close to a victory, but showed pretty good fight.
What has he done since? That was his last start it was about two weeks ago.
Best case: I actually quite like this horse, I think he is consistent and I really thought he would be higher in this list, but there is probably just a bit too much class here to put him higher. The best case could involve him getting out of barrier one well and staying handy to show the same fight and consistency into a top 5 finish.
10th Jeroboam
Jockey: TBA
Barrier:10
Best race to watch: The Auckland Co-Op Taxi's mile in December, he ran a pretty good third, and looked to be running on. The main reason to watch that race is that you get to see Silent Achiever win her first race.
What has he done since? He was able to break maidens next start, he ran a good looking second on Avondale Guineas day over 2100m, again he showed signs of hitting the line well.
Best case: He goes well at Ellerslie, he races better handy. If he is able to find a nice trailing run he might be able to stick with the leaders and hold on as they pull away to finish 5th.
9th Carrick
Jockey: Leith Innes
Barrier: 15
Best Race to watch: The Avondale Guineas is probably the best display. It was a good third, but he still trailed Shuka and Silent Achiever. He seemed to go very early in that race and was able to hold on well.
What has he done since? This is his first race since then, he will be better for the start over 2100m.
Best case: He again is not one who has looked to push forward in races, the lack of speed, may change up the tactics, but should at least give him time to find somewhere to settle. I can't really separate Travolta and Carrick, both look decent, but hard to see him featuring in the finish, possibly 3rd or 4th as a best case.
8th Angelology
Jockey: Kelly Myers
Barrier: 3
Best race to watch: The St Ledger Trial is a good example, maybe he didn't have to beat the biggest or most threatening field, but it was a good example of a first run over 2100m, and he ran it out well.
What has he done since? That was his last start, so will be backing up a week later for this, he has done that a couple of times and won both times.
Best case: You suspect this is far more difficult than anything he has faced, but the fact he has raced without really facing any other contenders, or really even taking on any horses who have also been racing against other runners in this field makes him somewhat of an unknown. He will be the likely leader, particularly from barrier 3, and in a race without a lot of pace or other likely leaders (really only Guess What and Shuka have really led races in the past) he will probably be able to dictate terms, this really could be a sprint finish with a lot of fresh horses. The best case is definitely him taking advantage of the fact his capabilities are unknown and taking off on the corner and stealing victory.
7th Travolta
Jockey: Mark Hills
Barrier: 14
Best Race to Watch: Have a look at him winning over 1600m in Wellington three starts back, he continued to lift to victory on a dead track.
What has he done since? He ran a pretty good fourth in the Avondale guineas after failing at Rating 75 level first time over more than 1600m.
Best Case: I really thought this horse looked great before the Avondale Guineas, he seemed taller and bigger, and looked ready to go. His forth was reasonable and he ran on well, but barrier 14 is a bit off putting. Again the lack of speed may suit and allow him to find cover, if he is able to wind up he could ruin or add value to a few Trifectas by running 3rd.
6th Ocean Park
Jockey: Chad Ormsby
Barrier: 4
Best Race to watch: He was amazing winning the Phil Cataldo Bloodstock Wellington Stakes. Wow, he just kept finding and left them all in his wake.
What has he done since? He looked good in Waikato but was outgunned by Silent Achiever.
Best Case: Barrier four should suit, I am sure they would like to have a eye on Silent Achiever, and typically he has shown strong finishes from distance behind the leaders which is similar to the filly, but from that draw he could put himself in a nice handy position only a few back on the rial, so it will be interesting. The best case is a nice trip, saving his run, showing the ability to hold back and make a late charge like that race in Wellington. He is strong and consistent, rain is a question mark, but he might be too powerful. The rain is a concern enough for me to drop him a couple of spots from where I have him on a good track (3rd behind Rock'n'pop and Silent Achiever).
5nd Rock'n'Pop
Jockey: Matthew Cameron
Barrier: 9
Best Race to Watch: Have a look at his last start against the older horses at WFA level. Forget Shez Sensational, she smashed'em. The pace was off, he was last on the turn and continued to warm up coming home, looking great hitting the line and probably making some ground.
What has he done since? That was his last start, he has had three weeks off, which appears to suit.
Best Case: I read they are going to want to ride him a bit more handy (I can't remember where so I can't include a link), that may suit from barrier 9 you can expect him three or back, with that finish and a bit more distance this strong colt overpowers them and keeps giving making it impossible to Silent Achiever and Ocean Park to catch him. Rain might be the biggest concern which is why I have dropped him from where I would see him in a dry track (2nd), I think if he is handy without much pace on he could still really finish strongly and not be caught.
4th Red Shift
Jockey:
Barrier: 5
Best Race to Watch: Westbury Stud New Zealand-made Stayers 2100m. He beat an interesting field comprising of a couple of competitors he will face Saturday and a couple of others who have raced in other feature races.He had to work for a run, took a while to wind up, but was coming home strongly.
What has he done since? Forgive the next start at Ellerslie, it was not the best effort, but he seemed to get away awkwardly, he still showed fight and covered the 2100m well. He really took a while to wind up, probably 300m before he really started making ground over the final 100m, maybe the extra Derby distance is a blessing.
Best Case: He gets out of the barriers well and stays the the first half of the field. He winds up well and really puts on a show as others are not staying the 2400m lifting to finish 2nd.
3rd Shuka
Jockey: Hayden Tinsley
Barrier: 16th
Best Race to Watch: Watch the Avondale Guineas again, while I think his chances her are hurt by the fact that Silent Achiever is cruising home. I watched that race live, I thought he was gone at the 150m mark which was close to where I was sitting, but he found more and lifted past Carrick for second. It is not that evident on video but live I thought he was going to finish fourth, and he showed a good finish and fight.
What has he done since? That was his last start, he is very consistent and should be in the mix again.
Best Case: Barrier 16 did concern, but there is not much pace in this race which may allow him to get into the first few and a comfortable position, even if he leads I don't think the pace will be too frantic. Hayden Tinsley is a great big race rider and wont panic if things don't start well. He actually reminds me a bit of Military Move from a couple of years ago, consistent without winning, chased home the derby favourite a few times, the race went his way on the day and he was able to take off and win, it is an interesting parallel. Don't worry about the wet either which is why I have bumped him to third.
2nd Chicharita
Jockey
Barrier: 11
Best Race to Watch: New Zealand Bloodstock Royal Stakes (Group 2), She won well, beating Planet Rock and Zurella (who I think have excuses), as well as Our Famous Eve (who went on to perform at Group 1 Level) and the handy Joy's Choice. She ran home beautifully for the victory in that event.
What has she done since? Raced in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic against a good field, on a good track and finished 6th. She was in the first bunch and beat all the horses she was supposed to. She was beaten by five fillies who have had impressive seasons, but I would have liked to see her go a bit better there to figure here.
Best Case: She goes well in Auckland, barrier 11 will suit, and will likely be amongst the top six favourites on Derby Day. The forecast rain will suit, as will the return to a right handed track. She is able to wind up on the turn and explode late to pass Silent Achiever on the line for victory in a best case.
1st Silent Achiever
Jockey: James McDonald
Barrier: 8
Best race to watch: Her beating Ocean Park in the Waikato Guineas, she showed everything you would want to see from your Derby Champion. She had to find a gap and fight through some traffic, she chased down a top horse and found enough to win.
What has she done since? Had a very easy time winning the Avondale Guineas, was really eased to the line after chasing down the competition from her usual rare position.
Best Case: Clearly winning, but the best case would involve James McDonald unleashing all of her significant power and coasting across the line 4 lengths clear of her rivals. She will handle the wet if it comes, barrier eight wont concern she should get a nice trip in the second half of the field.
Monday, 27 February 2012
20 Things to look forward to during Auckland Cup Week
Auckland Cup Week is nearly upon us, it will be an excellent week to celebration New Zealand Racing, although I will no doubt look more closely at some of the feature races as we get closer to the main event, here are a list of things you can look forward to during Auckland Cup Week at Ellerslie.
1. Infield Partying
There are really only a couple of race days a year where the track is packed to the point the infield is used, Saturday the 3rd of March (TV3 Derby Day) will be one of them. I recall last year cramming under a makeshift shelter in the infield with about a dozen friends only coming out to brave the conditions to restock alcohol, place bets and watch races, but it was great fun, very memorable. I eventually made a run to the grandstand to watch Jimmy Choux do his thing, but the party atmosphere in the infield is always a great time. Boxing Day 2011 had one of the biggest crowds I can remember seeing at Ellerslie, the infield was packed and people were having a great time. Ellerslie does a great job of putting on peripheral entertainment, this year featuring Kimbra, I have no idea who that is, but they sure seem to be pushing it.
2. James McDonald
Last year Opie Bosson had an amazing Auckland Cup Carnival, he rode Titch, The Party Stand, and Anabandana to victories in the Auckland Cup, New Zealand Stakes, and the Diamond Stakes taking out three of the four Group 1 races during Auckland Cup week. That seemed an amazing feat, well this year James McDonald has a chance to replicate that feat as pointed out in the Waikato Times. Can he do it will be a sub-story of Cup week, Silent Achiever is currently Derby favorite, Shez Sensational is looking very good for the Cup. The article talks about Scarlett Lady, and if that is favoured in the New Zealand Stakes, however it looks like it has been withdrawn from nominations (at least they are not listed in on the NZRacing Website), if that is the case you might assume she will be in Australia. The question remains, who will he ride in the remaining Group 1, he rode Choice Bro before Matthew Cameron rode him to victory in Taranaki, he rode Silk Pins in its last start before the Karaka Million, he has ridden Deakes and Toaist Master who are potential nominees. I have no idea who is likely to be in this race, or who he is likely to ride, however looking at some of the potential names you have to figure he is a good chance in that Group 1. Assuming Shez Sensational opts for the Cup and Scarlett Lady is not in the NZ Stakes, James McDonald will no doubt get a ride in this race, however looking at recent 2000m WFA races it is harder to see a likely favourite he might ride, so this may be the one which gets away, either way a possible Mcdonald-Sweep is something to look out for during Cup week.
3. The Nathan's Memorial
As discussed last week two of the last three Auckland Cup winners have come second in this race on Derby Day. This seemingly typical 2200m event will likely feature horses racing as a lead up for the cup against others who simply see it as a good value Open Handicap event.
4. New Zealand's Top Horses
Take away the 4 Group 1's and the handful of other races at listed level and above, the fields are stacked throughout the week, even the midweek meeting. Last year Veyron won a 1200m rating 90, he is now a three time Group 1 winner. High stakes are on offer all week which brings in the top horses from around the country.
5. The Telecom New Zealand Derby on TV3 Derby Day
A major feature of Auckland Cup week, and this year promises a number of contenders who all have their merits. Silent Achiever is the favourite, but there is a lot to like about Ocean Park, Zurella and Rock'n'Pop who I can see potentially taking it out. Shuka you would think would need some luck, and Travolta and Carick looked good in the Avondale Guineas. Don't sleep on any of the longer shots they have tended to feature in recent years, it is the Derby, anything can happen.
6. Something for everyone
Looking back at last year, over the 30 races there were essentially an even number from 1200m, 1400m, 1600m, and 21/2200m, as well as races over 1100m, 2000m, 2400m and 3200m. Again an even number of the maiden's, Rating 70, 80, 90 and Open level races, four races for 3YO's a couple for 2YO's and Fillies and Mares. Whatever you are into there is something for you, it also gives trainers and connections opportunity to find the right race for their horse to compete which should increase the racing excitement.
7. Sunline Vase You don't want to sleep on this potentially explosive event. It is a listed race for the 3YO Fillies over 2100m, but there should be some real talent on display. Look back at the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic a couple of weeks ago, some of those contenders will be on display in the derby, but it is evident that we have a talented group of 3YO fillies, many of these will be taking on this event before the Oaks in a couple of weeks, this is a race to keep an eye on.
8. A major Citywide event
There is certainly a buzz around Auckland leading up to derby day. Not a crazy buzz, this is not an All Black's game, but people are definitely aware it is on, there will be a significant turn out all three days. Auckland Racing Club does a good job promoting this event and making people aware of how fun a day at the races can be.
9. TV3's new Sponsorship
Telecom is a great Derby Sponsor, TV3 certainly has great potential to bring additional life to the event. I can imagine their sponsorship should see more coverage of races outside of the Trackside channels. I thought Sky TV did a great job on Karaka Million night, and although I will be at Ellerslie on Derby Day it will be interesting to see what TV3 can do showing off the sights and sounds.
10. A 3200m Group 1
A very unique event, yes it is annual, but still not a lot of these major staying tests in the country, this year's field is starting to look like it is a very solid one. The Stella Artois Auckland Cup is a race which dates back until 1874 (at least if Wikipedia is to be believed). It is really the great unknown, many of the runners who accept wont have started a race over 2400m, it will a great test of stamina, a big field will line up which will make it s tactical challenge, and a stunning sight for the spectators, there will be questions on every runner as they enter the parade ring, there will be no certainties. Look at the Current favourites, Shez Sensational, Booming, Single Minded, Titch and Six O'Clock News, some questions include distance, weight, distance, form, and consistency amongst others. The winner will see it as an opportunity to look at other Cup races in the future as well as adding a/another Group 1 to their resume.
11. An office sweepstake opportunity
Do you really need an excuse? if it is good for the Melbourne Cup why not the Auckland Cup, it is on in a lot of pubs, get the team together, set up a sweep, drink beers, have fun, it is a simple recipe.If you are the person in your office who is into racing, take charge, set it up.
12. Diamond Day Whip'n'Spurs
If you have not yet experienced a Whips'n'Spurs party you should make this the one. They are a great event, relatively cheap, filled with people all dressed up, you get a great view of the track, and can party all night. You can get your tickets here.
13. Fashion and Stuff
It is not what brings me to the races, but it does tend to attract a lot of Women, and that is never a bad thing. Whenever I can get a good group together to attend these major race days I get to witness how much time an energy females put into wardrobe, hair, makeup, accessories. They go crazy for this stuff and despite the frustration which accompanies making five outfit changes in a morning before the races they clearly enjoy it. I am not in a position to mock, I spend multiple hours studying form in the week leading up to the races and typically get less out of it. The best bit, have you see a woman try to walk in high heels after three bottles of bubbly in 25+ degree temperatures, it is fun for the whole family.
14. New Zealand Stakes
What do you expect? Shez Sensational has won two Group 1 WFA races over 2000m this season, but take her out of it and this will be a wide open race. Look at the results we have seen this year in the Windsor Park Plate, the Spring Classic, the Captian Cook Stakes, the Zabeel Classic, the Darci Brahma International, and most recently the Otaki Group 1. We wont see Mufhasa, we most likely wont see Shez Sensational or Jimmy Choux, but you can see the quality these races are attracting and the mixed variety of results behind the winners. Veyron's plans are not certain, but given how well he went over 2000m on Boxing day, his love of Auckland and the form he is in, it could be an interesting race.
15. Changing the colours of the Jockey statue
Will we be seeing Titch's colours adorn the Jockey statue for another year? It is a quirky but awesome tradition at Ellerslie (and many other tracks), the winner of the Auckland Cup will have their colours painted on the statue in the back parade ring for the next year.
16. It is happening all over town
I don't want to get to carried away talking about the other codes, but Auckland Cup is not all about the Thoroughbred's. It is happening at Alexandra Park too, they actually kick it off this Friday night with their Oaks followed by their Derby/Cup night the following week, the details are here. If you are into the dag's (you like dag's?), they have their cup too, next Thursday night, details here.
17. Diamond Stakes
The first Group 1 for the Two Year Olds this season. It is shaping up like an outstanding one. The Two year olds have been going at each other this year, contenders are stepping up and then getting knocked down, it is fascinating stuff. I have no idea what to expect from this year group, it is not like there is a dominant Anabandana this year.
18. Enjoy a day in a beautiful park
Ellerslie is stunning, I was out there the other week for the Avondale Guineas day and the course and grounds are looking in excellent condition. You can essentially boil the day down to a picnic in the park, only with 20,000 other people. Even without the added entertainment, it is almost worth the price of admission just to enjoy the surroundings.
19. Midweek Racing of consequence
Having significant racing during the middle of the week is great. The Cup is at the perfect time to knock off work and head down to the pub, or if you are in the Auckland area just take the day off, a lot of other people will be. Better yet, arrange a 'team building' exercise and get paid to go to the races.
20. Leading international Jockeys
Craig Williams recently won the Karaka Million on Ockham's Razor, it is just another example of the success that international Jockey's have had when they venture to our shores. Cup week last year we saw wins from Jim Byrne, Douglas Whyte, Shane Scriven, other internationals Glenn Boss and Craig Williams riding here not to mention other Jockeys who were based in New Zealand who won that week like Mark Du Plessis, Jason Collett, Opie Bosson who are either overseas now or were at some point in the past 12 months riding. The prize money is not quite what is was last year, but there is still potential to see some internationals making the trip to New Zealand.
1. Infield Partying
There are really only a couple of race days a year where the track is packed to the point the infield is used, Saturday the 3rd of March (TV3 Derby Day) will be one of them. I recall last year cramming under a makeshift shelter in the infield with about a dozen friends only coming out to brave the conditions to restock alcohol, place bets and watch races, but it was great fun, very memorable. I eventually made a run to the grandstand to watch Jimmy Choux do his thing, but the party atmosphere in the infield is always a great time. Boxing Day 2011 had one of the biggest crowds I can remember seeing at Ellerslie, the infield was packed and people were having a great time. Ellerslie does a great job of putting on peripheral entertainment, this year featuring Kimbra, I have no idea who that is, but they sure seem to be pushing it.
2. James McDonald
Last year Opie Bosson had an amazing Auckland Cup Carnival, he rode Titch, The Party Stand, and Anabandana to victories in the Auckland Cup, New Zealand Stakes, and the Diamond Stakes taking out three of the four Group 1 races during Auckland Cup week. That seemed an amazing feat, well this year James McDonald has a chance to replicate that feat as pointed out in the Waikato Times. Can he do it will be a sub-story of Cup week, Silent Achiever is currently Derby favorite, Shez Sensational is looking very good for the Cup. The article talks about Scarlett Lady, and if that is favoured in the New Zealand Stakes, however it looks like it has been withdrawn from nominations (at least they are not listed in on the NZRacing Website), if that is the case you might assume she will be in Australia. The question remains, who will he ride in the remaining Group 1, he rode Choice Bro before Matthew Cameron rode him to victory in Taranaki, he rode Silk Pins in its last start before the Karaka Million, he has ridden Deakes and Toaist Master who are potential nominees. I have no idea who is likely to be in this race, or who he is likely to ride, however looking at some of the potential names you have to figure he is a good chance in that Group 1. Assuming Shez Sensational opts for the Cup and Scarlett Lady is not in the NZ Stakes, James McDonald will no doubt get a ride in this race, however looking at recent 2000m WFA races it is harder to see a likely favourite he might ride, so this may be the one which gets away, either way a possible Mcdonald-Sweep is something to look out for during Cup week.
3. The Nathan's Memorial
As discussed last week two of the last three Auckland Cup winners have come second in this race on Derby Day. This seemingly typical 2200m event will likely feature horses racing as a lead up for the cup against others who simply see it as a good value Open Handicap event.
4. New Zealand's Top Horses
Take away the 4 Group 1's and the handful of other races at listed level and above, the fields are stacked throughout the week, even the midweek meeting. Last year Veyron won a 1200m rating 90, he is now a three time Group 1 winner. High stakes are on offer all week which brings in the top horses from around the country.
5. The Telecom New Zealand Derby on TV3 Derby Day
A major feature of Auckland Cup week, and this year promises a number of contenders who all have their merits. Silent Achiever is the favourite, but there is a lot to like about Ocean Park, Zurella and Rock'n'Pop who I can see potentially taking it out. Shuka you would think would need some luck, and Travolta and Carick looked good in the Avondale Guineas. Don't sleep on any of the longer shots they have tended to feature in recent years, it is the Derby, anything can happen.
6. Something for everyone
Looking back at last year, over the 30 races there were essentially an even number from 1200m, 1400m, 1600m, and 21/2200m, as well as races over 1100m, 2000m, 2400m and 3200m. Again an even number of the maiden's, Rating 70, 80, 90 and Open level races, four races for 3YO's a couple for 2YO's and Fillies and Mares. Whatever you are into there is something for you, it also gives trainers and connections opportunity to find the right race for their horse to compete which should increase the racing excitement.
7. Sunline Vase You don't want to sleep on this potentially explosive event. It is a listed race for the 3YO Fillies over 2100m, but there should be some real talent on display. Look back at the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic a couple of weeks ago, some of those contenders will be on display in the derby, but it is evident that we have a talented group of 3YO fillies, many of these will be taking on this event before the Oaks in a couple of weeks, this is a race to keep an eye on.
8. A major Citywide event
There is certainly a buzz around Auckland leading up to derby day. Not a crazy buzz, this is not an All Black's game, but people are definitely aware it is on, there will be a significant turn out all three days. Auckland Racing Club does a good job promoting this event and making people aware of how fun a day at the races can be.
9. TV3's new Sponsorship
Telecom is a great Derby Sponsor, TV3 certainly has great potential to bring additional life to the event. I can imagine their sponsorship should see more coverage of races outside of the Trackside channels. I thought Sky TV did a great job on Karaka Million night, and although I will be at Ellerslie on Derby Day it will be interesting to see what TV3 can do showing off the sights and sounds.
10. A 3200m Group 1
A very unique event, yes it is annual, but still not a lot of these major staying tests in the country, this year's field is starting to look like it is a very solid one. The Stella Artois Auckland Cup is a race which dates back until 1874 (at least if Wikipedia is to be believed). It is really the great unknown, many of the runners who accept wont have started a race over 2400m, it will a great test of stamina, a big field will line up which will make it s tactical challenge, and a stunning sight for the spectators, there will be questions on every runner as they enter the parade ring, there will be no certainties. Look at the Current favourites, Shez Sensational, Booming, Single Minded, Titch and Six O'Clock News, some questions include distance, weight, distance, form, and consistency amongst others. The winner will see it as an opportunity to look at other Cup races in the future as well as adding a/another Group 1 to their resume.
11. An office sweepstake opportunity
Do you really need an excuse? if it is good for the Melbourne Cup why not the Auckland Cup, it is on in a lot of pubs, get the team together, set up a sweep, drink beers, have fun, it is a simple recipe.If you are the person in your office who is into racing, take charge, set it up.
12. Diamond Day Whip'n'Spurs
If you have not yet experienced a Whips'n'Spurs party you should make this the one. They are a great event, relatively cheap, filled with people all dressed up, you get a great view of the track, and can party all night. You can get your tickets here.
13. Fashion and Stuff
It is not what brings me to the races, but it does tend to attract a lot of Women, and that is never a bad thing. Whenever I can get a good group together to attend these major race days I get to witness how much time an energy females put into wardrobe, hair, makeup, accessories. They go crazy for this stuff and despite the frustration which accompanies making five outfit changes in a morning before the races they clearly enjoy it. I am not in a position to mock, I spend multiple hours studying form in the week leading up to the races and typically get less out of it. The best bit, have you see a woman try to walk in high heels after three bottles of bubbly in 25+ degree temperatures, it is fun for the whole family.
14. New Zealand Stakes
What do you expect? Shez Sensational has won two Group 1 WFA races over 2000m this season, but take her out of it and this will be a wide open race. Look at the results we have seen this year in the Windsor Park Plate, the Spring Classic, the Captian Cook Stakes, the Zabeel Classic, the Darci Brahma International, and most recently the Otaki Group 1. We wont see Mufhasa, we most likely wont see Shez Sensational or Jimmy Choux, but you can see the quality these races are attracting and the mixed variety of results behind the winners. Veyron's plans are not certain, but given how well he went over 2000m on Boxing day, his love of Auckland and the form he is in, it could be an interesting race.
15. Changing the colours of the Jockey statue
Will we be seeing Titch's colours adorn the Jockey statue for another year? It is a quirky but awesome tradition at Ellerslie (and many other tracks), the winner of the Auckland Cup will have their colours painted on the statue in the back parade ring for the next year.
16. It is happening all over town
I don't want to get to carried away talking about the other codes, but Auckland Cup is not all about the Thoroughbred's. It is happening at Alexandra Park too, they actually kick it off this Friday night with their Oaks followed by their Derby/Cup night the following week, the details are here. If you are into the dag's (you like dag's?), they have their cup too, next Thursday night, details here.
17. Diamond Stakes
The first Group 1 for the Two Year Olds this season. It is shaping up like an outstanding one. The Two year olds have been going at each other this year, contenders are stepping up and then getting knocked down, it is fascinating stuff. I have no idea what to expect from this year group, it is not like there is a dominant Anabandana this year.
18. Enjoy a day in a beautiful park
Ellerslie is stunning, I was out there the other week for the Avondale Guineas day and the course and grounds are looking in excellent condition. You can essentially boil the day down to a picnic in the park, only with 20,000 other people. Even without the added entertainment, it is almost worth the price of admission just to enjoy the surroundings.
19. Midweek Racing of consequence
Having significant racing during the middle of the week is great. The Cup is at the perfect time to knock off work and head down to the pub, or if you are in the Auckland area just take the day off, a lot of other people will be. Better yet, arrange a 'team building' exercise and get paid to go to the races.
20. Leading international Jockeys
Craig Williams recently won the Karaka Million on Ockham's Razor, it is just another example of the success that international Jockey's have had when they venture to our shores. Cup week last year we saw wins from Jim Byrne, Douglas Whyte, Shane Scriven, other internationals Glenn Boss and Craig Williams riding here not to mention other Jockeys who were based in New Zealand who won that week like Mark Du Plessis, Jason Collett, Opie Bosson who are either overseas now or were at some point in the past 12 months riding. The prize money is not quite what is was last year, but there is still potential to see some internationals making the trip to New Zealand.
Friday, 17 February 2012
Stayers on display in the lead up to Auckland Cup week
I tend to enjoy longer races than sprints, I just enjoy the potential for different tactics, the fact that it all plays out over a longer time frame and that things can consistently change throughout the running. It is sad that we only have two major two mile races in New Zealand and very few other staying feature races, the longest Weight For Age Race is the St Ledger over 2500m at listed level, and we have a handful of Group 2 2400m races. So this is a weekend to savour for people who enjoy top fields of stayer's as we have the Group 2 Avondale Cup and the Group 3 Taranaki Cup (which is only over 1800m, but still), these races combine to feature 15 runners who hold nominees for the Auckland Cup (every runner in the Avondale Cup is currently listed as nominated), so to say this is a important lead up weekend for Cup week is not an understatement.
Taranaki Cup
Lets look at the Taranaki Cup first. I have never been to Pukekura Raceway, but I must say that on TV it is certainly one of the more eye catching tracks in the country, the ocean views in the background, Pukekura Park close by (home to New Zealand's most eye catching Cricket ground), it looks like a great place to attend a race day. The highlights of this field include Wellington Cup runner-up Spiro, Showcause returning, who won last years Avondale and City of Auckland Cup's, Thorndon Mile place getter Jetset Lad, the talented and consistent Smoulder, and a few lightweight chances who appeal as up-and-comers.
Place getters in this race over the last couple of years have not actually gone on to even run in the Auckland Cup, preferring alternate 2000m Group 1's, you have to go back to 2009 when Vickezzchardonnay won here and then ran 4th in the Auckland Cup, and Mircile Miss followed up her 3rd her with a 13th in the cup.
Spiro is having his forth start in just over a month, however as the Wellington Cup second shows he gets better with a bit more racing. He has actually won twice 8th up in his career, while also having wins in the 6th and 9th races of campaigns. He is undefeated over 1800m and on the course in his only attempt a couple of years back. I am not sure if going back in distance will really help, he has looked better over longer distances in recent years and he will have to carry an extra 1kg from the Wellington Cup, and 6kgs more than his last victory, which was in the Wellington Cup the year before. There are enough reasons to stay away from him in this event.
Showcause is having his first start back since the New Zealand Cup and a reasonably successful Melbourne Spring. He has such a good record over 2400m and at Ellerslie it is somewhat surprising he was not aimed at defending his Avondale Cup, but clearly having a first start over a shorter distance was the preferred option. All of his Open Handicap victories have come carrying significantly less weight, but with decent ground underfoot he should be respected.
Cassini was probably outweighed in the City of Auckland and Wellington Cup, 55kg does appeal. The weather looks to be fine which should improve the track to the point it will really suit Cassini. The main concern is 1800m, it feels a bit on the sharp side, it would have been interesting to see what weight she might have got in the Avondale Cup, based on Ratings it might have been closer to what Booming is carrying, so this looks her best chance.
Back in Black, the 2000m victory in Hastings looked like a sign of better things to come, we have not see those things yet. As a seasoned campaigner it is surprising to see that this would be the biggest victory of his career. I guess you should respect some of the past results, but I am happy to leave him out.
Jetset Lad looks very well placed here. He will carry more weight than his Group 1 third in the Thorndon Mile, but the impressive finish combined with the strong record in New Plymouth makes it look like 1800m is exactly what will be required.
Riomoral recorded a lower grade win over 1950m, it is really hard to know what to make of that after most of his starts to date have been over 1200-1400m. You have to respect the win, and the weight reduction at this class, but this looks like a challenge.
Sircross has shown consistency over 1600m, 200m more here without many other changes looks like it will suit. He was a chance in each of his last three starts against similar competition, when you look at the added 200m it looks like he will be an even better chance here. Value at $16.
Minquar Qiam was fifth here two years back to Bruce Almighty, I remember really liking him that year and I can neither confirm nor deny having anything on him in the Auckland Cup. He has not quite reached that level again, but if you look at distance and weight this is the type of event which should see him at his peak competitiveness. Is it enough to see him improve on that fifth? I am not so sure.
I am a big Smoulder fan, many of her 19 starts have come over 1600m, but I always thought a bit more distance wouldn't be a challenge. Other than her run in last years Avondale Guineas her only other start over 1600m was in Australia. Both of her recent runs have been against similar or possibly stronger competition so she is very well placed here and 1800m appeals.
Bruce Almighty will be 48th up, his last win was here in July and he has already had 13 starts since then, his best result was two starts back for second. While this is tough I have written him off before only to see him come through. As a winner of 5 races here you cannot completely write him off, but at the same time he is hard to take on recent form.
Spartanicus has a sweet name and again looks like he should be in this type of race at this weight and distance. He is drawn wide which she see him in a similar position to where he produced a big finish last start. Worth considering, but it appears that there might be too much talent here for him.
Better Together looks to have some ability and should challenge with only 53kgs. Her best recent results have seen her handy from reasonable draws so barrier two is probably right where she wants to be, the distance looks right, her best results have come left handed. She is right in this. Currently paying $9 fixed odds feels about right but maybe a touch short to be considered great value. It is hard to leave her out.
The inform Star of the Show has won 3 straight and not been out of the top 3 this summer. All of that has come at a lower grades, but the reduced weight and big finishes make this seem like the right time to have a shot at this type of race. This is a major step up and will test the 4YO, but I can actually see it happening.
The Raconteur takes a while to get going, but has not shown the same consistency as he did a year ago. The only appeal is the light weight, but it would be a surprise to see him in the top four.
Pomellato is a horse who is closing in on that course specialist title with half of her wins coming here. She was in a far lower grade when she won over 1800m here a month ago. While she looks like a chance, if I was picking a light weight option I would probably look elsewhere.
Bruno is another stepping up who is hard to completely discount, because of weight and recent results. This is a good chance to show his potential if he runs, but a win would surprise.
The Pick
First - Smoulder - All things considered she is the one who looks the most likely to see winning.
Second - Sircross - Good value is hard to turn down, will be interesting to see the tote place odds.
Third - Jetset Lad - I can see why he is favoured here, but there are a lot of chances, it will be a good victory for whoever comes through.
Forth - Better Together - I think one of the lightweights will feature and it was really a toss up between her and Star of the Show, Cassini still deserves a look as well.
Best Value - Sircross ($16)
Longest Shot I can see winning - Bruce Almighty ($21, although it feels a bit short)
Avondale Cup
This time last year Showcause was the lock of the day in the Avondale Cup (... checking result, Ok, maybe not, but Darryl Bradley looks reasonably comfortable in the photo). He went on to run Second in the Auckland Cup, Innocent Lady took her Second here to Forth in the Auckland Cup, and Can't Keeper Down went on to run fifth in the Auckland Cup following her forth. A good show here is important (Trilogy 4th to 9th, Castle Heights 6th to 3rd, Tinsletown 8th to 11th), and does correlate to Auckland Cup success. Prior to last year the race was run at Avondale (in December), the last running was won by Ginga Dude, however in 2010 there was a Cup prelude run on this day, Heza Karma Karzi won and then ran last in the Auckland Cup, Everbright was second and ran 13th in the Cup and Six O'Clock News ran 3rd ended up 7th in that years Auckland Cup, it is evident that the Group 2 status makes this race much more attractive as a lead up to the Auckland Cup, every runner you will see on Saturday still holds a nomination to the Auckland Cup.
For your interest the lead ups for the last three Auckland Cup winners (Titch, Zavite, Spin Around) was Second in the Nathan's Memorial, 1st in a 2500m race in Melbourne, and Second in the Nathan's Memorial, so look out on Derby Day for our next Cup winner. Prize Lady ran in the equivalent of the Avondale Cup/Cup Prelude prior to both of her Auckland Cup Wins.
Booming is carrying a significant weight on Saturday, you can expect him to put forward a good effort over 3200m in the Auckland Cup, but this looks tough. Weight For Age races clearly appeal because of the relative weights his rivals will carry and he has not had a lot of luck this year, but efforts were better prior to Christmas and in Melbourne. Paying $10 on fixed odds seems right as I can't see him as favourite but you cannot rule him out.
The Jungle Boy loves Ellerslie! he enjoys the scenery, he must like the company and crowd, he has had nine starts here, about a quarter of his total races, it is just unfortunate that he doesn't like racing here. It is a mystery as to why, if you take Ellerslie out of it he has won 3 of 12 right handed, it is not like he has come up against amazing competition, or terrible conditions, or consistent bad draws, it is just a weird statistical thing. He has been consistent lately, was good in the Wellington Cup (his first placing at 2400m), but course and distance stats are a concern. This might be the day.
Current New Zealand Cup Champion Blood Brotha won in atrocious conditions. He was very quiet in the Wellington Cup at a point when 2400m seemed ideal. Looking back he has generally bounced back after a bad result so feel free to ignore that Wellington run. They should nickname this horse The Carousel as Michael Coleman will become the 8th Jockey to ride him in as many starts.
Castle Heights was third in the Auckland Cup last year following his 6th in this race. His third in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was in a reasonably similar race. Ellerslie has not been his favourite place to run and 2400m has not been his best distance, but it certainly looks like things are lining up nicely for him to overcome that on Saturday.
Single Minded won the City of Auckland Cup he is back tomorrow carrying only 1kg more. He has won four of his 10 starts, three of those have come this campaign, two over this distance. He was reasonably close in the Wellington Cup and can easily contend here.
Loose Change's only start at Ellerslie to date was a third in this race last year. He has consistently made ground toward the finish in starts over 2000m and should give the punter every chance. Maybe there are horses with more talent in this race but you should get an honest performance and a horse going forward not backwards when it matters. 2400m appeals and $10 looks like decent value.
Wisecrack will be ridden by James McDonald for the 3rd consecutive time and is searching for win number three from those races.He has won half of his starts and generally either wins or really loses, his best result when not winning is finishing 5 lengths from the winner. The last two non-victories involved a vet problem and a knock, the 11th in the Derby was on a very wet day, and the other poor performance looks like it was simply his second start. From that you can assume that he will win unless he gets bad luck.
Don Domingo is a horse who does not really appeal at this level, despite that the fact that he is only going to carry 53kgs. The good include, 53kg's, 3 wins at Ellerslie, he improves with racing, the unknown is the 2400m and the Open Handicap level does not appeal. He might be worth a flyer.
Yours has won 8 races and over 100k but this would be by far the most significant. It is hard not to be a snob but when a horse is racing at Open Handicap level with 48 career starts and none at Ellerslie you have to question the opposition. I would say you have to consider him on the basis of the close second to Titch, but if Titch was in this race would he be in your top four? probably not on current form. This is also his first start right handed.
Innocent Lady has all of the potential in the world. She actually reminds me a bit of Six O'Clock News, it is very impressive when it comes together, but a lot of the time it just doesn't. Her last couple of starts before this race last year were dubious, then she ran second here and fourth in the Auckland Cup. She is well weighted to make her look like value.
Maythehorsebemagic was racing over fences 6 months ago, however has looked pretty good as a stayer on the flat. This is a step up, but the recent record over 2400m and at Ellerslie makes this look tempting particularly given the 52.5kg which is basically nothing compared to what he carried as a hurdler. He will also go pretty well fresh too.
Top Spot has done pretty well with a couple starts at Open level, she will carry 2kg's less than the City of Auckland Cup third. She appears to like it with a bit of moisture around. Give her a chance.
Aruriteson really needs to show me something to make me think he can cut it at this level.
The Picks
First - Wisecrack - just looks like this will be a suitable situation for win number four.
Second - Single Minded - should battle well with wisecrack
Third - Maythehorsebemagic - Will stay well, ready to step up? 52kg is a temptation that is hard to pass on.
Forth - Loose Change - Honest performer who should go close
Best Value - Maythehorsebemagic ($21) - Another place chance at odds
Longest Shot I can see winning - Maythehorsebemagic
Taranaki Cup
Lets look at the Taranaki Cup first. I have never been to Pukekura Raceway, but I must say that on TV it is certainly one of the more eye catching tracks in the country, the ocean views in the background, Pukekura Park close by (home to New Zealand's most eye catching Cricket ground), it looks like a great place to attend a race day. The highlights of this field include Wellington Cup runner-up Spiro, Showcause returning, who won last years Avondale and City of Auckland Cup's, Thorndon Mile place getter Jetset Lad, the talented and consistent Smoulder, and a few lightweight chances who appeal as up-and-comers.
Place getters in this race over the last couple of years have not actually gone on to even run in the Auckland Cup, preferring alternate 2000m Group 1's, you have to go back to 2009 when Vickezzchardonnay won here and then ran 4th in the Auckland Cup, and Mircile Miss followed up her 3rd her with a 13th in the cup.
Spiro is having his forth start in just over a month, however as the Wellington Cup second shows he gets better with a bit more racing. He has actually won twice 8th up in his career, while also having wins in the 6th and 9th races of campaigns. He is undefeated over 1800m and on the course in his only attempt a couple of years back. I am not sure if going back in distance will really help, he has looked better over longer distances in recent years and he will have to carry an extra 1kg from the Wellington Cup, and 6kgs more than his last victory, which was in the Wellington Cup the year before. There are enough reasons to stay away from him in this event.
Showcause is having his first start back since the New Zealand Cup and a reasonably successful Melbourne Spring. He has such a good record over 2400m and at Ellerslie it is somewhat surprising he was not aimed at defending his Avondale Cup, but clearly having a first start over a shorter distance was the preferred option. All of his Open Handicap victories have come carrying significantly less weight, but with decent ground underfoot he should be respected.
Cassini was probably outweighed in the City of Auckland and Wellington Cup, 55kg does appeal. The weather looks to be fine which should improve the track to the point it will really suit Cassini. The main concern is 1800m, it feels a bit on the sharp side, it would have been interesting to see what weight she might have got in the Avondale Cup, based on Ratings it might have been closer to what Booming is carrying, so this looks her best chance.
Back in Black, the 2000m victory in Hastings looked like a sign of better things to come, we have not see those things yet. As a seasoned campaigner it is surprising to see that this would be the biggest victory of his career. I guess you should respect some of the past results, but I am happy to leave him out.
Jetset Lad looks very well placed here. He will carry more weight than his Group 1 third in the Thorndon Mile, but the impressive finish combined with the strong record in New Plymouth makes it look like 1800m is exactly what will be required.
Riomoral recorded a lower grade win over 1950m, it is really hard to know what to make of that after most of his starts to date have been over 1200-1400m. You have to respect the win, and the weight reduction at this class, but this looks like a challenge.
Sircross has shown consistency over 1600m, 200m more here without many other changes looks like it will suit. He was a chance in each of his last three starts against similar competition, when you look at the added 200m it looks like he will be an even better chance here. Value at $16.
Minquar Qiam was fifth here two years back to Bruce Almighty, I remember really liking him that year and I can neither confirm nor deny having anything on him in the Auckland Cup. He has not quite reached that level again, but if you look at distance and weight this is the type of event which should see him at his peak competitiveness. Is it enough to see him improve on that fifth? I am not so sure.
I am a big Smoulder fan, many of her 19 starts have come over 1600m, but I always thought a bit more distance wouldn't be a challenge. Other than her run in last years Avondale Guineas her only other start over 1600m was in Australia. Both of her recent runs have been against similar or possibly stronger competition so she is very well placed here and 1800m appeals.
Bruce Almighty will be 48th up, his last win was here in July and he has already had 13 starts since then, his best result was two starts back for second. While this is tough I have written him off before only to see him come through. As a winner of 5 races here you cannot completely write him off, but at the same time he is hard to take on recent form.
Spartanicus has a sweet name and again looks like he should be in this type of race at this weight and distance. He is drawn wide which she see him in a similar position to where he produced a big finish last start. Worth considering, but it appears that there might be too much talent here for him.
Better Together looks to have some ability and should challenge with only 53kgs. Her best recent results have seen her handy from reasonable draws so barrier two is probably right where she wants to be, the distance looks right, her best results have come left handed. She is right in this. Currently paying $9 fixed odds feels about right but maybe a touch short to be considered great value. It is hard to leave her out.
The inform Star of the Show has won 3 straight and not been out of the top 3 this summer. All of that has come at a lower grades, but the reduced weight and big finishes make this seem like the right time to have a shot at this type of race. This is a major step up and will test the 4YO, but I can actually see it happening.
The Raconteur takes a while to get going, but has not shown the same consistency as he did a year ago. The only appeal is the light weight, but it would be a surprise to see him in the top four.
Pomellato is a horse who is closing in on that course specialist title with half of her wins coming here. She was in a far lower grade when she won over 1800m here a month ago. While she looks like a chance, if I was picking a light weight option I would probably look elsewhere.
Bruno is another stepping up who is hard to completely discount, because of weight and recent results. This is a good chance to show his potential if he runs, but a win would surprise.
The Pick
First - Smoulder - All things considered she is the one who looks the most likely to see winning.
Second - Sircross - Good value is hard to turn down, will be interesting to see the tote place odds.
Third - Jetset Lad - I can see why he is favoured here, but there are a lot of chances, it will be a good victory for whoever comes through.
Forth - Better Together - I think one of the lightweights will feature and it was really a toss up between her and Star of the Show, Cassini still deserves a look as well.
Best Value - Sircross ($16)
Longest Shot I can see winning - Bruce Almighty ($21, although it feels a bit short)
Avondale Cup
This time last year Showcause was the lock of the day in the Avondale Cup (... checking result, Ok, maybe not, but Darryl Bradley looks reasonably comfortable in the photo). He went on to run Second in the Auckland Cup, Innocent Lady took her Second here to Forth in the Auckland Cup, and Can't Keeper Down went on to run fifth in the Auckland Cup following her forth. A good show here is important (Trilogy 4th to 9th, Castle Heights 6th to 3rd, Tinsletown 8th to 11th), and does correlate to Auckland Cup success. Prior to last year the race was run at Avondale (in December), the last running was won by Ginga Dude, however in 2010 there was a Cup prelude run on this day, Heza Karma Karzi won and then ran last in the Auckland Cup, Everbright was second and ran 13th in the Cup and Six O'Clock News ran 3rd ended up 7th in that years Auckland Cup, it is evident that the Group 2 status makes this race much more attractive as a lead up to the Auckland Cup, every runner you will see on Saturday still holds a nomination to the Auckland Cup.
For your interest the lead ups for the last three Auckland Cup winners (Titch, Zavite, Spin Around) was Second in the Nathan's Memorial, 1st in a 2500m race in Melbourne, and Second in the Nathan's Memorial, so look out on Derby Day for our next Cup winner. Prize Lady ran in the equivalent of the Avondale Cup/Cup Prelude prior to both of her Auckland Cup Wins.
Booming is carrying a significant weight on Saturday, you can expect him to put forward a good effort over 3200m in the Auckland Cup, but this looks tough. Weight For Age races clearly appeal because of the relative weights his rivals will carry and he has not had a lot of luck this year, but efforts were better prior to Christmas and in Melbourne. Paying $10 on fixed odds seems right as I can't see him as favourite but you cannot rule him out.
The Jungle Boy loves Ellerslie! he enjoys the scenery, he must like the company and crowd, he has had nine starts here, about a quarter of his total races, it is just unfortunate that he doesn't like racing here. It is a mystery as to why, if you take Ellerslie out of it he has won 3 of 12 right handed, it is not like he has come up against amazing competition, or terrible conditions, or consistent bad draws, it is just a weird statistical thing. He has been consistent lately, was good in the Wellington Cup (his first placing at 2400m), but course and distance stats are a concern. This might be the day.
Current New Zealand Cup Champion Blood Brotha won in atrocious conditions. He was very quiet in the Wellington Cup at a point when 2400m seemed ideal. Looking back he has generally bounced back after a bad result so feel free to ignore that Wellington run. They should nickname this horse The Carousel as Michael Coleman will become the 8th Jockey to ride him in as many starts.
Castle Heights was third in the Auckland Cup last year following his 6th in this race. His third in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was in a reasonably similar race. Ellerslie has not been his favourite place to run and 2400m has not been his best distance, but it certainly looks like things are lining up nicely for him to overcome that on Saturday.
Single Minded won the City of Auckland Cup he is back tomorrow carrying only 1kg more. He has won four of his 10 starts, three of those have come this campaign, two over this distance. He was reasonably close in the Wellington Cup and can easily contend here.
Loose Change's only start at Ellerslie to date was a third in this race last year. He has consistently made ground toward the finish in starts over 2000m and should give the punter every chance. Maybe there are horses with more talent in this race but you should get an honest performance and a horse going forward not backwards when it matters. 2400m appeals and $10 looks like decent value.
Wisecrack will be ridden by James McDonald for the 3rd consecutive time and is searching for win number three from those races.He has won half of his starts and generally either wins or really loses, his best result when not winning is finishing 5 lengths from the winner. The last two non-victories involved a vet problem and a knock, the 11th in the Derby was on a very wet day, and the other poor performance looks like it was simply his second start. From that you can assume that he will win unless he gets bad luck.
Don Domingo is a horse who does not really appeal at this level, despite that the fact that he is only going to carry 53kgs. The good include, 53kg's, 3 wins at Ellerslie, he improves with racing, the unknown is the 2400m and the Open Handicap level does not appeal. He might be worth a flyer.
Yours has won 8 races and over 100k but this would be by far the most significant. It is hard not to be a snob but when a horse is racing at Open Handicap level with 48 career starts and none at Ellerslie you have to question the opposition. I would say you have to consider him on the basis of the close second to Titch, but if Titch was in this race would he be in your top four? probably not on current form. This is also his first start right handed.
Innocent Lady has all of the potential in the world. She actually reminds me a bit of Six O'Clock News, it is very impressive when it comes together, but a lot of the time it just doesn't. Her last couple of starts before this race last year were dubious, then she ran second here and fourth in the Auckland Cup. She is well weighted to make her look like value.
Maythehorsebemagic was racing over fences 6 months ago, however has looked pretty good as a stayer on the flat. This is a step up, but the recent record over 2400m and at Ellerslie makes this look tempting particularly given the 52.5kg which is basically nothing compared to what he carried as a hurdler. He will also go pretty well fresh too.
Top Spot has done pretty well with a couple starts at Open level, she will carry 2kg's less than the City of Auckland Cup third. She appears to like it with a bit of moisture around. Give her a chance.
Aruriteson really needs to show me something to make me think he can cut it at this level.
The Picks
First - Wisecrack - just looks like this will be a suitable situation for win number four.
Second - Single Minded - should battle well with wisecrack
Third - Maythehorsebemagic - Will stay well, ready to step up? 52kg is a temptation that is hard to pass on.
Forth - Loose Change - Honest performer who should go close
Best Value - Maythehorsebemagic ($21) - Another place chance at odds
Longest Shot I can see winning - Maythehorsebemagic
Thursday, 16 February 2012
Three Year Old Power Rankings - The Mid February Edition
It has been about three weeks since my last edition of the Power Rankings of New Zealand Three Year Olds, and although I have been making this a once a month gimmick I wanted to roll it out this week so I can squeeze in another edition before the New Zealand Derby, which is really what this had been about all of this time. I have been a little caught up in Derby hype over the past couple of weeks (17 Sleeps), I have already written about the contenders this week, but there are a number of top 3YO's who have dropped out of the Derby.
The Big Up's
Who has stepped up and shown something since the last edition?
Quintessential - Crushed em (by centimetres) at Trentham in the Desert Gold Stakes at Group 3 Level beating a handful of runners familiar with this list, followed up with a solid third in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Capital Diamond - Solid since before the 1000 Guineas, put up back to back seconds in the afore mentioned races.
Rock'n'Pop - Karaka 3YO Mile winner followed that up with a strong third at Open Weight For Age Group 1 Level at Waikato.
Knight's Tour - Added another win to his record, worked hard for it but it was not as challenging a race.
Bangalore Bullet - Won a couple of listed Guineas Races in the past few weeks down south.
Silent Achiever - Continues her rise up the rankings.
Zurella - Winner of the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic to answer some questions.
Our Famous Eve - Second in the Royal Stakes, she did herself proud with her effort in stronger company at WFA level, her fifth was not far off second, but still a distance out of first.
Downer's
Who has not performed up to their ranking?
Testa Secret - After the solid Eight Carat Classic she was less than solid in her next two, she might be a bit tired after a busy few weeks.
Ocean Park - Not a major downer, still a lot of hype and Derby favouritism, but not flying as high as a month ago.
Planet Rock - Thought the forth in the Sir Tristram Fillies was good, so not a major downer, but a win there may have cemented first spot.
Chicharita - Was on the verge before her disappointing run in the Sir Tristram Fillies.
Abeautifulred - had been very solid before the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Sangster - I am happy to forgive the run, after whatever the incident was at the 450m mark it looked like he was eased home. I would have liked to see more, but I expect he will continue to improve with distance.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Distill (9), Duckworth Lewis (10)
Honourable Mention:
Distill (hardest omission, he is a Group 1 winner after all, but we will not see him again in New Zealand), Duckworth Lewis (will be great as a 4YO if we don't see him again at age 3), Burgundy (still unsure what to make of him), Artistic (continues to race in solid form), Quintessential (big riser), Nashville, Xanadu, Shuka (always seems to come up against Ocean Park and Silent Achiever), Our Famous Eve.
Rankings
Number 10 - Capital Diamond (N/A) - Has looked very strong over the last couple of starts with seconds in very strong fillies races. Is Oaks nominated where $10 looks good value if she continues her consistency and even shows some improvement.
Number 9 - Ocean Park (5) - Still a lot of hype and a great shot at the Derby. The loss to Silent Achiever was not that bad, he will be highly backed on Derby Day and should be ready for 2400m at that point.
Number 8 - Sangster (2) - A big drop, it is probably undeserved and is more of a reaction to the form of other runners on this list. Something went wrong on Saturday (in a race he was never really a winning chance in anyway) and I am sure he will improve with more distance and more racing and climb this list again.
Number 7 - Knight's Tour (6) - Was set for a rise in these rankings until the word of his injury spread. It is hard not to feel sorry for the connections who had a horse who looked like a potential Group 1 winner and are now faced with uncertainty as to when his career will resume. Obviously you just have to hope he comes back in the same form.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (1) - I can't penalise the 4th in the Sir Tristram Fillies too hard, that was a tough race and quality field.
Number 5 - Zurella (N/A) - Back up in the rankings after the Sir Tristram Fillies race victory which included the powerful, Planet Rock and Artistic, as well as up and coming Quintessential and Capital Diamond.
Number 4 - Silent Achiever (8) - Now we know she is headed for the New Zealand Derby (or maybe not), she has beaten her main rival over 2000m and continues to show a lot of finishing speed. We will probably get another look at her on Avondale Guineas Day before the Derby where she will be a major threat to take home the prize.
Number 3 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana. It is hard to know when he will next race, couldn't see his name in nominations on either side of the Tasman or find any news stories.
Number 2 - Anabandana (4) - Back to Racing in Australia, wasn't a winner, but possibly lost to a very good Filly in Soft Sand. She looks like she will continue to be consistent and a threat to win in Australia this autumn.
Number 1 - Rock'n'Pop (7) - I agonised about who should really be number one on this list. Antonio Lombardo just hasn't raced for a while, an Aussie win may have seen Anabandana here, the resume of Silent Achiever is just not strong enough. Rock'n'Pop was dominant in the Karaka 3YO Mile and looked very good at Group 1 Level over 2000m.
Value Derby Proposition: Zurella ($6) - I just feel like she is closer to the Silent Achiever/Ocean Park ($3.80) level than this.
Long shot Derby Proposition: Joy's Choice ($51) (longest shot I can see winning at this point if all horses with odds were to start)
Value Oaks Proposition: Mosh Pit ($16) or possibly Quintessential ($12)- Lots of value this far out from the race, but at this point it is probably hard to separate this filly from Artistic ($10), Capital Diamond ($10), Chicharita ($6 - seems way too short), and Planet Rock ($8), Zurella and Silent Achiever are at $6, but who knows if they will run in this and the derby.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Abeautifulred ($61) has been consistent enough to throw a spanner in the works.
The Big Up's
Who has stepped up and shown something since the last edition?
Quintessential - Crushed em (by centimetres) at Trentham in the Desert Gold Stakes at Group 3 Level beating a handful of runners familiar with this list, followed up with a solid third in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Capital Diamond - Solid since before the 1000 Guineas, put up back to back seconds in the afore mentioned races.
Rock'n'Pop - Karaka 3YO Mile winner followed that up with a strong third at Open Weight For Age Group 1 Level at Waikato.
Knight's Tour - Added another win to his record, worked hard for it but it was not as challenging a race.
Bangalore Bullet - Won a couple of listed Guineas Races in the past few weeks down south.
Silent Achiever - Continues her rise up the rankings.
Zurella - Winner of the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic to answer some questions.
Our Famous Eve - Second in the Royal Stakes, she did herself proud with her effort in stronger company at WFA level, her fifth was not far off second, but still a distance out of first.
Downer's
Who has not performed up to their ranking?
Testa Secret - After the solid Eight Carat Classic she was less than solid in her next two, she might be a bit tired after a busy few weeks.
Ocean Park - Not a major downer, still a lot of hype and Derby favouritism, but not flying as high as a month ago.
Planet Rock - Thought the forth in the Sir Tristram Fillies was good, so not a major downer, but a win there may have cemented first spot.
Chicharita - Was on the verge before her disappointing run in the Sir Tristram Fillies.
Abeautifulred - had been very solid before the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Sangster - I am happy to forgive the run, after whatever the incident was at the 450m mark it looked like he was eased home. I would have liked to see more, but I expect he will continue to improve with distance.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Distill (9), Duckworth Lewis (10)
Honourable Mention:
Distill (hardest omission, he is a Group 1 winner after all, but we will not see him again in New Zealand), Duckworth Lewis (will be great as a 4YO if we don't see him again at age 3), Burgundy (still unsure what to make of him), Artistic (continues to race in solid form), Quintessential (big riser), Nashville, Xanadu, Shuka (always seems to come up against Ocean Park and Silent Achiever), Our Famous Eve.
Rankings
Number 10 - Capital Diamond (N/A) - Has looked very strong over the last couple of starts with seconds in very strong fillies races. Is Oaks nominated where $10 looks good value if she continues her consistency and even shows some improvement.
Number 9 - Ocean Park (5) - Still a lot of hype and a great shot at the Derby. The loss to Silent Achiever was not that bad, he will be highly backed on Derby Day and should be ready for 2400m at that point.
Number 8 - Sangster (2) - A big drop, it is probably undeserved and is more of a reaction to the form of other runners on this list. Something went wrong on Saturday (in a race he was never really a winning chance in anyway) and I am sure he will improve with more distance and more racing and climb this list again.
Number 7 - Knight's Tour (6) - Was set for a rise in these rankings until the word of his injury spread. It is hard not to feel sorry for the connections who had a horse who looked like a potential Group 1 winner and are now faced with uncertainty as to when his career will resume. Obviously you just have to hope he comes back in the same form.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (1) - I can't penalise the 4th in the Sir Tristram Fillies too hard, that was a tough race and quality field.
Number 5 - Zurella (N/A) - Back up in the rankings after the Sir Tristram Fillies race victory which included the powerful, Planet Rock and Artistic, as well as up and coming Quintessential and Capital Diamond.
Number 4 - Silent Achiever (8) - Now we know she is headed for the New Zealand Derby (or maybe not), she has beaten her main rival over 2000m and continues to show a lot of finishing speed. We will probably get another look at her on Avondale Guineas Day before the Derby where she will be a major threat to take home the prize.
Number 3 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana. It is hard to know when he will next race, couldn't see his name in nominations on either side of the Tasman or find any news stories.
Number 2 - Anabandana (4) - Back to Racing in Australia, wasn't a winner, but possibly lost to a very good Filly in Soft Sand. She looks like she will continue to be consistent and a threat to win in Australia this autumn.
Number 1 - Rock'n'Pop (7) - I agonised about who should really be number one on this list. Antonio Lombardo just hasn't raced for a while, an Aussie win may have seen Anabandana here, the resume of Silent Achiever is just not strong enough. Rock'n'Pop was dominant in the Karaka 3YO Mile and looked very good at Group 1 Level over 2000m.
Value Derby Proposition: Zurella ($6) - I just feel like she is closer to the Silent Achiever/Ocean Park ($3.80) level than this.
Long shot Derby Proposition: Joy's Choice ($51) (longest shot I can see winning at this point if all horses with odds were to start)
Value Oaks Proposition: Mosh Pit ($16) or possibly Quintessential ($12)- Lots of value this far out from the race, but at this point it is probably hard to separate this filly from Artistic ($10), Capital Diamond ($10), Chicharita ($6 - seems way too short), and Planet Rock ($8), Zurella and Silent Achiever are at $6, but who knows if they will run in this and the derby.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Abeautifulred ($61) has been consistent enough to throw a spanner in the works.
Tuesday, 14 February 2012
Who should be the Derby Favourite?
It is about halfway through February, the New Zealand Derby takes place on the third of March at Ellerslie. Two years ago Katie Lee was a class three year old, but this race was a bit too long and it would come down to a battle between Zarzuela and Monaco Consul (as far as the book makers were concerned, although Katie Lee was kept safe), as it turned out Military Move was too strong. Last year everyone knew Jimmy Choux was the top three year old, some suspected the distance would test, but his class prevailed. The point is those races were reasonably clear heading into them, they may not have played out the way that people expected them to, but people were generally talking about a couple of options as potential winners.
This year is far different, the odds are frequently shifting, contenders are battling other contenders on a weekly basis, favourites are going down and at this stage there is probably about seven horses who could win and you would not be shocked. There are still 22 horses in the nomination list, and that list does not include Sangster or Dowager Queen who you might have expected to be contenders in November last year. Lets have a look at some of the nominations and why you can make a case for them as a potential derby winner.
Silent Achiever
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (in the Waikato Guineas over 2000m) Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes over 2100m at Ellerslie), Jerobarm (over 1600m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Planet Rock (Eight Carat Classic over 1600m at Ellerslie)
The win over Ocean Park (then derby favourite) was the one that really cemented Silent Achiever as a horse capable of racing at this level. She has really hit the line strongly each time she steps in the distance which makes the 2400m tempting.
Ocean Park
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Shuka (in the Great Northern Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m), Joys Choice (over 1500m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Knights Tour (Great Northern Guineas)
Thus far the couple of Victories over Shuka are the most impressive on his resume, however his win in the Wellington Stakes was arguably one of the most impressive victories by a three year old this season, he did beat a strong field that day (just no other nominees). The run for second behind Knight's Tour included a finish which would have seen him leading if the race was 50m longer. The second behind Silent Achiever at Te Rapa was good, he didn't really look that comfortable throughout the trip and finished off strongly, but Silent Achiever was simply outstanding, she did a fantastic job to find the hole and catch Ocean Park.
Rock'n'Pop
Current Odds - $6.00
Other noms beaten: Shuka (2000 Guineas over 1600m)
Beaten by: Shuka (Over 1400m at Ashburton)
Is a Group 1 winner who has also placed at Group 1 level at Open level. He came back with a 5th at Tauranga, he then followed up with a strong performances and finish in the Karaka 3YO mile and that 3rd in the Group 1 Darci Brahma International over 2000m. The third last Saturday was a great indication of talent, he didn't get a lot of favours and really hard to work hard, he showed a lot of speed and made up a lot of distance over the final couple of hundred meters.
Knight's Tour
Current Odds -Now out of derby nominations.
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka (Great Northen Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m)
Beaten by: None
Knight's Tour shot into contention with a surprise victory in the Great Northern Guineas on Boxing Day, he followed this up with a hard fought victory on Karaka Millions night over 1600m. He has looked good to date, the win over Ocean Park is probably his best to date when both finished strongly beating a decent guineas field.
Zurella
Current odds - $6
Other noms beaten: Planet Rock (Sir Tristram Fillies Classic at Te Rapa over 2000m) Joy's Choice (Eulogy Stakes over 1600m at Ellerslie), Joy's Choice, Roamin, (at Te Rapa over 1400m)
Beaten by:
The victory in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic was huge. She was unable to finish off the 2000m strongly in the Royal stakes, that may have been because of the conditions, or because it was her first attempt, however none of that matters now, she beat a class field on the weekend and won in style over 2000m.
Shuka
Current odds - $10
Other noms beaten: Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas), Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes), Rock'n'Pop (over 1400m at Ashburton)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever (Championship Stakes), Knight's Tour, Ocean Park (Great Northern Guineas) Rock'n'Pop (2000 Guineas)
Faced a lot of the contenders and has typically been middle of the pack (relative to the others). He has a good record overall and in bigger races but has not really been able to overcome the elite (who are more favoured than him for the race). Looking at his recent performances over 2000m and 2100m I am not concerned about his ability to get 2400m, but he hasn't really showed that the added 400m/300m would have put him in a position where he would have beaten those horses.
Carrick
Current odds - $14
Other noms beaten: None
Beaten by: None
Will be looking to see how he goes against some of the other noms prior to the derby. He has looked solid to date, but maybe has not faced some of the competition of the other noms.
Planet Rock - is now out of the Derby.
Barney
Current odds - $18
Other noms beaten: Nine Pin (over 2100m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park, Shuka (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever, Shuka, Viking Ace (Championship Stakes)
$18 odds seem a bit low, but it is hard to argue he is not the next best, or at least in the next best group.
It certainly appears overall that this race will come down to a lot of those top nominees, there is certainly a number of cases you can build for each of them, obviously the removal of Planet Rock and Knight's Tour since I began writing this opens things up slightly for others who would have been considered longer shots, but the top four are very close. By looking at some of the past few derby's it is clear longer shots are never out of this race, it would be wise to look closely at some of the performances in lower grade races of some of the runners to see if you can find your outsider. The Avondale Guineas this weekend is always a great indicator as to how horses may go in the Derby, it is definitely one to tune in for.
This year is far different, the odds are frequently shifting, contenders are battling other contenders on a weekly basis, favourites are going down and at this stage there is probably about seven horses who could win and you would not be shocked. There are still 22 horses in the nomination list, and that list does not include Sangster or Dowager Queen who you might have expected to be contenders in November last year. Lets have a look at some of the nominations and why you can make a case for them as a potential derby winner.
Silent Achiever
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (in the Waikato Guineas over 2000m) Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes over 2100m at Ellerslie), Jerobarm (over 1600m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Planet Rock (Eight Carat Classic over 1600m at Ellerslie)
The win over Ocean Park (then derby favourite) was the one that really cemented Silent Achiever as a horse capable of racing at this level. She has really hit the line strongly each time she steps in the distance which makes the 2400m tempting.
Ocean Park
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Shuka (in the Great Northern Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m), Joys Choice (over 1500m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Knights Tour (Great Northern Guineas)
Thus far the couple of Victories over Shuka are the most impressive on his resume, however his win in the Wellington Stakes was arguably one of the most impressive victories by a three year old this season, he did beat a strong field that day (just no other nominees). The run for second behind Knight's Tour included a finish which would have seen him leading if the race was 50m longer. The second behind Silent Achiever at Te Rapa was good, he didn't really look that comfortable throughout the trip and finished off strongly, but Silent Achiever was simply outstanding, she did a fantastic job to find the hole and catch Ocean Park.
Rock'n'Pop
Current Odds - $6.00
Other noms beaten: Shuka (2000 Guineas over 1600m)
Beaten by: Shuka (Over 1400m at Ashburton)
Is a Group 1 winner who has also placed at Group 1 level at Open level. He came back with a 5th at Tauranga, he then followed up with a strong performances and finish in the Karaka 3YO mile and that 3rd in the Group 1 Darci Brahma International over 2000m. The third last Saturday was a great indication of talent, he didn't get a lot of favours and really hard to work hard, he showed a lot of speed and made up a lot of distance over the final couple of hundred meters.
Knight's Tour
Current Odds -Now out of derby nominations.
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka (Great Northen Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m)
Beaten by: None
Knight's Tour shot into contention with a surprise victory in the Great Northern Guineas on Boxing Day, he followed this up with a hard fought victory on Karaka Millions night over 1600m. He has looked good to date, the win over Ocean Park is probably his best to date when both finished strongly beating a decent guineas field.
Zurella
Current odds - $6
Other noms beaten: Planet Rock (Sir Tristram Fillies Classic at Te Rapa over 2000m) Joy's Choice (Eulogy Stakes over 1600m at Ellerslie), Joy's Choice, Roamin, (at Te Rapa over 1400m)
Beaten by:
The victory in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic was huge. She was unable to finish off the 2000m strongly in the Royal stakes, that may have been because of the conditions, or because it was her first attempt, however none of that matters now, she beat a class field on the weekend and won in style over 2000m.
Shuka
Current odds - $10
Other noms beaten: Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas), Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes), Rock'n'Pop (over 1400m at Ashburton)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever (Championship Stakes), Knight's Tour, Ocean Park (Great Northern Guineas) Rock'n'Pop (2000 Guineas)
Faced a lot of the contenders and has typically been middle of the pack (relative to the others). He has a good record overall and in bigger races but has not really been able to overcome the elite (who are more favoured than him for the race). Looking at his recent performances over 2000m and 2100m I am not concerned about his ability to get 2400m, but he hasn't really showed that the added 400m/300m would have put him in a position where he would have beaten those horses.
Carrick
Current odds - $14
Other noms beaten: None
Beaten by: None
Will be looking to see how he goes against some of the other noms prior to the derby. He has looked solid to date, but maybe has not faced some of the competition of the other noms.
Planet Rock - is now out of the Derby.
Barney
Current odds - $18
Other noms beaten: Nine Pin (over 2100m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park, Shuka (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever, Shuka, Viking Ace (Championship Stakes)
$18 odds seem a bit low, but it is hard to argue he is not the next best, or at least in the next best group.
It certainly appears overall that this race will come down to a lot of those top nominees, there is certainly a number of cases you can build for each of them, obviously the removal of Planet Rock and Knight's Tour since I began writing this opens things up slightly for others who would have been considered longer shots, but the top four are very close. By looking at some of the past few derby's it is clear longer shots are never out of this race, it would be wise to look closely at some of the performances in lower grade races of some of the runners to see if you can find your outsider. The Avondale Guineas this weekend is always a great indicator as to how horses may go in the Derby, it is definitely one to tune in for.
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