Things are starting to get pretty serious, so once again I am here to share with you the notes I made while watching some of the bigger races in New Zealand and Australia over the weekend. As always prices at per the NZ TAB
Ruakaka
2YO's
With every runner having their first race day start there was only a couple of trials to rely on for punters. 2YO's really ramp up in the New Year, so hard to say how meaningful a race like this could be, but it may shed some light on the early season listed races for the 2YO age group.
All seemed to travel pretty well, the winner Doubtless really walloped them pulling away to win comfortably. Cant see too many excuses for the rest of them, the next three all finished in quick succession, Almansa (4th) attacking slightly earlier than the others and probably having to do a bit of extra work.
3YO's
Westbruy Stud Challenge Stakes
Well you can all call me crazy. I thought this was a strong field heading into the race, and expect it to be a reasonably strong indication of form moving forward.
Sacred Falls was dominant, had a fairly easy trip, took a bit to wind up once he saw space, but really looked great with a comfortable win.
Southern Lord showed us a solid finish, he struck on next to the eventual winner in the straight, but Sacred falls was just a bit too powerful as Southern Lord dropped away. He probably had to work a bit harder during the race and possibly is closer to Sacred Falls than this race indicated.
Travino looked to struggle for a run, he did find some space and closed on Southern Lord.
King Zeus made ground well, but again was possibly suck in some traffic as Charlie Farley went back through the field, and then again behind Travino.
D'Cash Man finished 4th, he did a lot of work leading and fourth was a strong result.
Elysium really struggled for space, she was still probably 2nd last with 150m to go, she then really came home well into 6th. She was the only filly in the race and certainly held her own.
Silverdale probably does have a bit of an excuse, was last on the turn and had some space on the rail to make a run, but had to make an adjustment to get around Charlie Farley, he accelerated again, but slipped to 7th. He may offer value to someone next start.
1000 Guineas
Elysium - $12
2000 Guineas
D'Cash Man $51
Elysium $31
King Zeus $26
Sacred Falls $7
Silverdale $61
Southern Lord $41
Travino $31
Spring Championship Stakes
King Zeus $61
It is a long way out and a lot can change, but certainly some interesting odds on offer there.
Antonio Lombardo was a group 1 contender heading into his 3YO season, I think he showed that he should remain as a contender this season. He had a fairly solid trip, and actually got a challenge as he wound up and eased away from them. Simple really.
Marton
Metric Mile
No Excuse Maggie was probably caught a little wide early on and had to work. She never really settled into a comfortable position to get into the race.
Amberio had such a nice journey around the track, she showed very good fight, conditions suited and she was only carrying 53kg, but possibly can keep up this solid form as the ratings rise.
Flemington is obviously seeking more distance and looked to pull up over the last 100m or so.
As good as Dubai Belle looked I think it might be hard to see her doing it again in handicap conditions, she wont get that much weight relief and the conditions really suited her well. She has been consistently good recently and seen her rating go from 72 up to 95, but possibly might be one to keep watching on wet tracks.
I thought Zennista looked pretty good for 5th, and Khemosabi held on well for 4th, and Art Beat arrived strongly for 6th.
Spring Classic
Zennista $31 - More distance should suit, WFA is not a concern
Flemington $31
Superturf $101 - Kept fighting for third and looked good but would be hard to take at WFA.
New Zealand Cup
Beau Dane - $41
Flemington $12
Melbourne
Race 1 - 3YO Hcp - Very impressed by Philippi he really wound up to win. Second placed Carringbush Jack seemed to wind up and extend late. Forget seemed inferior to the first two, but still finished strongly and Adjuster set a good pace and just ran out of steam.
Race 2 - 3YOF - Saturn Rock is one we are familiar with with New Zealand, she trailed at the back of the field but looked comfortable. She had to work hard for her run but finally found space at about 150m and came hard to finish third.
Love for Ransom came from further back than Saturn rock probably 2 lengths behind Saturn Rock on the turn and probably extended the lead about a length in the final 50m. Setlla Lante worked hard around the bend and found some space. Mama's Choice was solid and probably lifted again very late. There was a solid finish by Malasun to finish 5th.
A lot of the 3YO's are 1000 Guineas and Caulfield Guineas nominated
Race 3 - Adapt Australia Handicap- Precedence back to winning form and under a big weight. He had to do a bit of work when he attacked early, Michael Rodd went for the whip around the bend. He really wound up and scored going away from them. Spacecraft led and put in a pretty solid run, he kept finding. New Zealand St Ledger champion Guns and Five looked good for 1600m, really wound up and showing his best form in Aussie so far. Ebony Rock finished fifth, but looked to be craving more ground with a strong finish, 1700m is the longest he has gone so far, but may improve over more distance.
Caulfield Cup
Precedence $61
Guns and Five $101
Melbourne Cup
Precedence $51
Guns at Five $101
Race 4 - Japan Trophy - Saw Tanby carrying a big weight, worked home pretty well, but just couldn't really do enough with a 4kg difference, not the worst effort.
Tanby
Melbourne Cup $81
Caulfield Cup $26
The Metropolitan $18
Buxted
The Metropolitan $18
Melbourne Cup $101
Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes
Happy Trails - fought really hard, he actually looked gone and then just seemed to find more.
Green Moon - had a pretty cosy run, he came hard as the two leaders pulled away, almost got there. Looks set to meet Happy Trails 1.5kg worse off currently in the Caulfield Cup, but that will likely change depending on acceptances.
Rekindled Interest - came from about mid field and finished hard into 3rd, a length and a half back, but should get more distance. Cox plate might be tough.
Linton - Looked rejuvenated, wasn't doing much on the corner then followed Rekindled Interest well.
Sneak a Peak - was coming home over the top of other runners.
Ethiopia - Eye catching run for 7th. Will get another kg off over the longer Cox Plate distance.
Current Odds
Ethiopia - Cox Plate $41 - Melbourne Cup $26
Green Moon - Cox Plate $10 - Caulfield Cup $13 - Melbourne Cup - $13 Metropolitan $10
Happy Trails - Cox Plate $21 - Happy Trails $41
Linton- Cox Plate Cox Plate $26 - Caulfield Cup $26 - Melbourne Cup -$31
Rekindled Interest - Cox Plate $12 - Epsom Handicap $16
Sneak a Peak - Cox Plate $81 - Caulfield Cup $41 Melbourne Cup $61
Top Cut Stocks Stakes
Chicharita - Improved in her second Melbourne Start, will continue to improve over more distance. She settled well, but drifted rare and seemed slow to react when the speed was raised. She finished very well for 7th.
Oasis Bloom showed a very strong finish to win.
I thought Dame Claire found another gear late, too late, she was 8th, but looked pretty good.
Spirit Song was narrowly beaten and Oasis Bloom pulled away, but Spirit Song really pushed hard down the inside, possibly unlucky.
Avienus finished really well, but was just out finished by Chateau Margaux.
Current Odds
Avienus - Caulfield Cup $201
Chateau Margaux - Epsom $101 Caulfield Cup $51
Chicharita - The Metripolitian - $81 Caulfield Cup $101 Melbourne Cup $201
Dame Claire - Caulfield Cup $151 Melbourne Cup $301
Sydney - Just a couple of relevant Sydney notes
More Joyous was so good. She looked very calm and relaxed prior to the race, settled in Second and pulled away for the easy win. Likely not to race the Epsom ($10). This Cox Plate is shaping up like an awesome race ($6.50)
Golden Rose
The whole point of these notes is that once runners start having several starts you can build up a bit of history and begin to form opinions. Two weeks ago I showed you odds for Epaulette without commenting on his performance, he looks to have a bight immediate future.
Epaulette and Albrecht both looked very good, they were both trailing the field and came from last very quickly to draw away from the rest for victory. The next two home Ashokan and Ninth Legion both looked as strong as each other but certainly weren't getting any closer to wining.
Cox Plate
Epaulette $41
Ninth Legion $201
Spring Championship Stakes
Ninth Legion $8
Kingstown Town Stakes
The first two Stout Hearted and Crafty Irna travelled well, Stout Hearted caught Strawberry Boy and just comfortably drew away. Crafty Irna fought hard to make up a lot of ground, but probably stopped gaining with about 50m to go. Strawberry Boy was not too bad, he just ran out of steam. Praecido and Ironstein both made good ground from deep, but stopped getting closer. The Verminator possibly struggled to get the best run in the straight and Maules Creek ran out of steam over the 2000m.
Crafty Irna - The Metropolitan - $18
Ironstein - Caulfield Cup $201 Melbourne Cup $101
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31
Praecido - The Metropolitan $61
The Verminator - The Metropolitan $26 Caulfield Cup $101 Melbourne Cup $101
Strawberry Boy - Epsom $16 - The Metropolitan $14 (Status uncertain for both Sydney races) Caulfield Cup $61 Melbourne Cup $151
Stout Hearted - The Metropolitan $12 Caulfield Cup $31 Melbourne Cup $51
Showing posts with label Spring Classic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spring Classic. Show all posts
Wednesday, 19 September 2012
Monday, 10 September 2012
Spring Notes - 9 September 2012
After digesting a good portion of the racing action from New Zealand
and Australia on Saturday I went back and zipped through all of the
action again on Sunday to figure out what I learned about some of the
major contenders for the big races this Spring. My comments for New
Zealand races are a little more thought out, my comments on Australian
races are almost exactly what I jotted down as I watched them and
replayed them. All price quotes are per the New Zealand TAB.
Auckland
The most notable race was the JRA trophy, this race featured Shez Sinsational and a host of other runners who are likely to show up in feature races in the next few months.
Shez Sinational - 1400m is always going to be slightly shorter than ideal, handicap conditions suited some of her rivals, and the wet track (as we discovered in the Nathan's Memorial) was probably not going to suit. I am not sure we will quite see her at her best in the Windsor, and last year it took her a few starts to get that win. We probably saw the performance we needed to see from her, a battling run in unsuitable conditions, as soon as the races get closer to 2000m she will be a big danger.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate - $15, Spring Classic $5
Full of Spirit - looked very good when fresh up. She seems to handle all track conditions well, so should be solid over more distance for the rest of the spring. She is not currently nominated for anything in Australia (as far as I can see, but it looks like she will head that way), her only NZ nomination is the Couplands bakery mile in which you would expect her to be a go of chance.
Postmans Daughter - a favourite of mine, one who always seems to keep fighting. She looked positive again over the weekend, possibly faded relative to Full of Spirit over the last 50m but was strong against all others. She had the benefit of a great trip. Looks like another promising season ahead for her.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate $21 (look for place odds on the day), Spring Classic $14 (Value)
Atom Cat - A year ago he was in the WPP, this year he is not nominated for any of the big features yet, despite the fact the conditions may have assisted him, he finished off this race very strongly despite not getting much luck in the straight.
Carrick - Had to work hard to get into a position to make a run between the 600m and 400m marks, but not that much harder than Full of Spirit worked for her run. He finished off reasonably strongly but possibly faded over the final 150m. He has performed on a slow track in the past, he is possibly looking for more distance (although his two wins have been over 1200m and 1400m). He was only carrying 55kg, this is a bit of a concern heading into a WFA race where he would meet the likes of Postman's Daughter and Shez Sinsational relatively worse off.
Current odds - Windsor - $15 (hard to have), Spring Classic $10 (will have to improve, prefer Postmans Daughter at odds)
3YO's
Tough day to judge them, the track was not great. These conditions are often what we see in Canterbury in November, so it is probably worth taking notes.
Twilight Granita - I loved the run, how much extra ground did she cover? she was racing 4-5 wide at points around the bend. She just kept giving to get there and win. She has been consistent, seems to handle all conditions well, and a step in distance shouldn't hurt.She is nominated for the 1000 guineas, but odds are not yet released.
Kisses - Pretty strong fighting run for second. Not currently nominated, but seems to be the consistent type who is improving with each start.
Hollywood Angel - Horrible start, but she chased them down nicely and showed a strong finish into 6th, she most likely could have won without the bad luck. She is nominated for both Guineas and should be a threat.
Comical Lass - Kept closing into 4th. Seems to perform well on rain effected tracks (which is all she has seen so far).
Hazel - I expected better, she was not really seen. Definitely one to look at on a better track to see how she goes. Should improve 2nd up.
Liberating - Improved with racing before the second in the Matamata Breeders at age two. Looks like she will need a couple of starts this prep before she is at her best.
Ray's Girl - Seemed to keep finishing well after a poor start. Improved with racing last prep, may have been a bit too wet.
Snow Line - Used a bit of energy during the run, but I didn't see any justification for the pre-race price.
Warhorse - I am happy to forgive the favourite and suggest that he didn't handle the conditions when he faded late. He was 6th in the Wentwood Grange before winning a Group 3 last year, so I think we will see him improve into his next start.
Move Faster - I liked the late run of Swiper the Fox, but these two were basically side by side on the bend. Swiper the Fox unwound late, Move Faster accelerated consistently to win nicely. Move faster is yet to see a good track, but looks to be one to keep an eye on throughout the spring.
Batman - Didn't get the best trip, but ran home well living up to the trial form.
Swiper the Fox - Big finishing burst, had to work around the bend, will be stronger over more grounds. I think the conditions suited him.
Freedom - Worked hard to find a place to settle, but did find a handy position. Didn't show much at the finish, probably related to the conditions.
Hayleys Comet - Was far off them when he got a chance to run, but he did seem to come home pretty well, probably not the worst effort on display.
Australia - Sydney
Ming Dynasty
Magic Shaft - Didn't get a lot of luck, wide and probably over raced slightly before fading towards the end. Will need to improve to figure over 2000m. Probably hurt by 59kg in handicap conditions.
Current Odds - Spring Championship Stakes $31
Also Nominated - Caulfield Guineas
Overall I liked what I saw from all of the first 5 finishers, certainly the winner Tatra looked good and carried 58.5kg, and Honorius had a pretty strong finish into Third.
Current Odds
Spring Championship Stake
Tatra $9
Honorius $14
Proverb $14
Rowie $18
Sumarand $18
Golden Rose
Sumarand $41
Chelmsford Stakes
Danleigh was great in winning, and Secret admirer was a strong second. Lights of heaven didn't seem to do a lot, but will improve over more distance and in handicap conditions. Maules Creek showed a decent finish into 5th.
Current odds
Danleigh - Epsom $21 (Hard to have in a Handicap)
Secret Admirer - Epsom $11, Caulfield Cup $41, Cox Plate $21
Lights of Heaven - The Metropolitan $16, Caulfield Cup $31, Cox Plate $51, Melbourne Cup $51
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31, Caulfield Cup $101
Furious Stakes
Pussy Willow - Didn't seem like a great run, she was probably hurt by the pace and never really got into the race.
The first three (Dear Demi, Meidung, and Jade Marauder) all comfortably pulled away from the field, and looked good in their relative positions. Dear Demi won reasonably well, but all three impressed.
Current Odds
Pussy Willow - Nominated 1000 Guineas, will need to improve
Dear Demi - Golden Rose $26
Meidung - Golden Rose $26
Jade Marauder - - Golden Rose $26
Last at Sydney
Quintessenial - As good as a last can be (actually finished second last), certainly didn't get all the favours in the running and probably faded when he got blocked going for a run. I would forgive this run and look for value next start over more distance.
Epsom -$51
Caulfield Cup - $31
Melbourne Cup - $101
Australia - Melbourne
Lets Elope
Zurella - Awesome performance. She really had to fight hard for a run, and looked great when she got one. 55kg under handicap conditions, but as the races get harder she might not take too much of a penalty relative to the other runners she will face. Despite her second in the Oaks and strong Derby run, I felt that the 1400-1600m range was always her most suited distance. I expect she is probably heading to a Caulfield Cup, but she could also prove dangerous in a Myer Classic or Emirates Mile type race.
(Miss) Artistic - Not much between the Ritchie stablemates in the Oaks, but Artistic won, then had some success in Queensland and ended up carrying far more weight over the weekend. Still it was a pretty good performance. She will get better over more ground.
Hi Belle, kept on fighting into second. Lady Melksham fought well into fifth. Yosei unwound fairly late to beat Artistic and finish 6th.
Zurella - Caulfield Cup $31, Melbourne Cup $41
Artistic - Caulfield Cup $61 (good odds, she will improve), Melbourne Cup $101
Yosei - Caulfield Cup $151, Epsom $16, Cox Plate $101
Danehill Stakes
Snitzerland has an awesome name and was very impressive pulling away for victory after struggling for a run. Thought the first three were all pretty good and Swift Exit finished strongly for 5th at big odds.
Makybe Diva
The pace looked a little slow, but it was still an impressive win by Southern Speed to hold out the fast finishing Manighar. Lots of contenders here, the most notable Moudre running well and finishing third. December Draw was possibly a little unlucky, but ran on reasonably well. Efficient travelled wide and just didn't have a lot of finish. Moyuran picked up with pace over the last 100m. Dance With Her finished well late. Second Effort looked very good late coming from wide on the track (I think, I cant read my notes here).
The ones I would watch most closely are probably ones you already know to watch Manighar, Southern Speed, and I would like to see the improvement Second Effort takes from this.
Current Odds
December Draw- Caulfield Cup $26, Melbourne Cup $21, Cox Plate $26
Dance With Her - The Metropolitan $61, Caulfield Cup $101, Melbourne Cup $81
Efficient - The Metropolitan $21 (hard to recommend, will improve over more distance), Caulfield Cup $51, Melbourne Cup $41, Cox Plate $81
Manighar - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $14
Moudre - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $31, Cox Plate $51
Moyuran - The Metropolitan $26, Caulfield Cup $41, Melbourne Cup $51, Cox Plate $101
Southern Speed - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $21
Bobbie Lewis Quality
I think Anabandana is done, I was actually surprised to see her racing, I thought she had retired last year.
Mosheen will be better over more distance.
Sofitel Handicap
I thought the winner Excluded won very well and was pretty happy with what I saw from the first three (Exceptionally and Prizum).
Innocent Lady - was pretty average, she just faded on the bend.
The Jungle Boy - Had a very nice run, but didn't show much when it was time to really race.
Single Minded - Probably lasted 100m more than Innocent Lady. Will improve with more distance.
Current Odds
Excluded - The Metropolitan $18, Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $51
Exceptionally - Melbourne Cup $61
Single Minded - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $81 (certainly capable if makes the field)
Auckland
The most notable race was the JRA trophy, this race featured Shez Sinsational and a host of other runners who are likely to show up in feature races in the next few months.
Shez Sinational - 1400m is always going to be slightly shorter than ideal, handicap conditions suited some of her rivals, and the wet track (as we discovered in the Nathan's Memorial) was probably not going to suit. I am not sure we will quite see her at her best in the Windsor, and last year it took her a few starts to get that win. We probably saw the performance we needed to see from her, a battling run in unsuitable conditions, as soon as the races get closer to 2000m she will be a big danger.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate - $15, Spring Classic $5
Full of Spirit - looked very good when fresh up. She seems to handle all track conditions well, so should be solid over more distance for the rest of the spring. She is not currently nominated for anything in Australia (as far as I can see, but it looks like she will head that way), her only NZ nomination is the Couplands bakery mile in which you would expect her to be a go of chance.
Postmans Daughter - a favourite of mine, one who always seems to keep fighting. She looked positive again over the weekend, possibly faded relative to Full of Spirit over the last 50m but was strong against all others. She had the benefit of a great trip. Looks like another promising season ahead for her.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate $21 (look for place odds on the day), Spring Classic $14 (Value)
Atom Cat - A year ago he was in the WPP, this year he is not nominated for any of the big features yet, despite the fact the conditions may have assisted him, he finished off this race very strongly despite not getting much luck in the straight.
Carrick - Had to work hard to get into a position to make a run between the 600m and 400m marks, but not that much harder than Full of Spirit worked for her run. He finished off reasonably strongly but possibly faded over the final 150m. He has performed on a slow track in the past, he is possibly looking for more distance (although his two wins have been over 1200m and 1400m). He was only carrying 55kg, this is a bit of a concern heading into a WFA race where he would meet the likes of Postman's Daughter and Shez Sinsational relatively worse off.
Current odds - Windsor - $15 (hard to have), Spring Classic $10 (will have to improve, prefer Postmans Daughter at odds)
3YO's
Tough day to judge them, the track was not great. These conditions are often what we see in Canterbury in November, so it is probably worth taking notes.
Twilight Granita - I loved the run, how much extra ground did she cover? she was racing 4-5 wide at points around the bend. She just kept giving to get there and win. She has been consistent, seems to handle all conditions well, and a step in distance shouldn't hurt.She is nominated for the 1000 guineas, but odds are not yet released.
Kisses - Pretty strong fighting run for second. Not currently nominated, but seems to be the consistent type who is improving with each start.
Hollywood Angel - Horrible start, but she chased them down nicely and showed a strong finish into 6th, she most likely could have won without the bad luck. She is nominated for both Guineas and should be a threat.
Comical Lass - Kept closing into 4th. Seems to perform well on rain effected tracks (which is all she has seen so far).
Hazel - I expected better, she was not really seen. Definitely one to look at on a better track to see how she goes. Should improve 2nd up.
Liberating - Improved with racing before the second in the Matamata Breeders at age two. Looks like she will need a couple of starts this prep before she is at her best.
Ray's Girl - Seemed to keep finishing well after a poor start. Improved with racing last prep, may have been a bit too wet.
Snow Line - Used a bit of energy during the run, but I didn't see any justification for the pre-race price.
Warhorse - I am happy to forgive the favourite and suggest that he didn't handle the conditions when he faded late. He was 6th in the Wentwood Grange before winning a Group 3 last year, so I think we will see him improve into his next start.
Move Faster - I liked the late run of Swiper the Fox, but these two were basically side by side on the bend. Swiper the Fox unwound late, Move Faster accelerated consistently to win nicely. Move faster is yet to see a good track, but looks to be one to keep an eye on throughout the spring.
Batman - Didn't get the best trip, but ran home well living up to the trial form.
Swiper the Fox - Big finishing burst, had to work around the bend, will be stronger over more grounds. I think the conditions suited him.
Freedom - Worked hard to find a place to settle, but did find a handy position. Didn't show much at the finish, probably related to the conditions.
Hayleys Comet - Was far off them when he got a chance to run, but he did seem to come home pretty well, probably not the worst effort on display.
Australia - Sydney
Ming Dynasty
Magic Shaft - Didn't get a lot of luck, wide and probably over raced slightly before fading towards the end. Will need to improve to figure over 2000m. Probably hurt by 59kg in handicap conditions.
Current Odds - Spring Championship Stakes $31
Also Nominated - Caulfield Guineas
Overall I liked what I saw from all of the first 5 finishers, certainly the winner Tatra looked good and carried 58.5kg, and Honorius had a pretty strong finish into Third.
Current Odds
Spring Championship Stake
Tatra $9
Honorius $14
Proverb $14
Rowie $18
Sumarand $18
Golden Rose
Sumarand $41
Chelmsford Stakes
Danleigh was great in winning, and Secret admirer was a strong second. Lights of heaven didn't seem to do a lot, but will improve over more distance and in handicap conditions. Maules Creek showed a decent finish into 5th.
Current odds
Danleigh - Epsom $21 (Hard to have in a Handicap)
Secret Admirer - Epsom $11, Caulfield Cup $41, Cox Plate $21
Lights of Heaven - The Metropolitan $16, Caulfield Cup $31, Cox Plate $51, Melbourne Cup $51
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31, Caulfield Cup $101
Furious Stakes
Pussy Willow - Didn't seem like a great run, she was probably hurt by the pace and never really got into the race.
The first three (Dear Demi, Meidung, and Jade Marauder) all comfortably pulled away from the field, and looked good in their relative positions. Dear Demi won reasonably well, but all three impressed.
Current Odds
Pussy Willow - Nominated 1000 Guineas, will need to improve
Dear Demi - Golden Rose $26
Meidung - Golden Rose $26
Jade Marauder - - Golden Rose $26
Last at Sydney
Quintessenial - As good as a last can be (actually finished second last), certainly didn't get all the favours in the running and probably faded when he got blocked going for a run. I would forgive this run and look for value next start over more distance.
Epsom -$51
Caulfield Cup - $31
Melbourne Cup - $101
Australia - Melbourne
Lets Elope
Zurella - Awesome performance. She really had to fight hard for a run, and looked great when she got one. 55kg under handicap conditions, but as the races get harder she might not take too much of a penalty relative to the other runners she will face. Despite her second in the Oaks and strong Derby run, I felt that the 1400-1600m range was always her most suited distance. I expect she is probably heading to a Caulfield Cup, but she could also prove dangerous in a Myer Classic or Emirates Mile type race.
(Miss) Artistic - Not much between the Ritchie stablemates in the Oaks, but Artistic won, then had some success in Queensland and ended up carrying far more weight over the weekend. Still it was a pretty good performance. She will get better over more ground.
Hi Belle, kept on fighting into second. Lady Melksham fought well into fifth. Yosei unwound fairly late to beat Artistic and finish 6th.
Zurella - Caulfield Cup $31, Melbourne Cup $41
Artistic - Caulfield Cup $61 (good odds, she will improve), Melbourne Cup $101
Yosei - Caulfield Cup $151, Epsom $16, Cox Plate $101
Danehill Stakes
Snitzerland has an awesome name and was very impressive pulling away for victory after struggling for a run. Thought the first three were all pretty good and Swift Exit finished strongly for 5th at big odds.
Makybe Diva
The pace looked a little slow, but it was still an impressive win by Southern Speed to hold out the fast finishing Manighar. Lots of contenders here, the most notable Moudre running well and finishing third. December Draw was possibly a little unlucky, but ran on reasonably well. Efficient travelled wide and just didn't have a lot of finish. Moyuran picked up with pace over the last 100m. Dance With Her finished well late. Second Effort looked very good late coming from wide on the track (I think, I cant read my notes here).
The ones I would watch most closely are probably ones you already know to watch Manighar, Southern Speed, and I would like to see the improvement Second Effort takes from this.
Current Odds
December Draw- Caulfield Cup $26, Melbourne Cup $21, Cox Plate $26
Dance With Her - The Metropolitan $61, Caulfield Cup $101, Melbourne Cup $81
Efficient - The Metropolitan $21 (hard to recommend, will improve over more distance), Caulfield Cup $51, Melbourne Cup $41, Cox Plate $81
Manighar - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $14
Moudre - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $31, Cox Plate $51
Moyuran - The Metropolitan $26, Caulfield Cup $41, Melbourne Cup $51, Cox Plate $101
Southern Speed - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $21
Bobbie Lewis Quality
I think Anabandana is done, I was actually surprised to see her racing, I thought she had retired last year.
Mosheen will be better over more distance.
Sofitel Handicap
I thought the winner Excluded won very well and was pretty happy with what I saw from the first three (Exceptionally and Prizum).
Innocent Lady - was pretty average, she just faded on the bend.
The Jungle Boy - Had a very nice run, but didn't show much when it was time to really race.
Single Minded - Probably lasted 100m more than Innocent Lady. Will improve with more distance.
Current Odds
Excluded - The Metropolitan $18, Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $51
Exceptionally - Melbourne Cup $61
Single Minded - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $81 (certainly capable if makes the field)
Monday, 3 September 2012
What have we learned this Spring? (1st Edition)
It is springtime, you wouldn't know it if you looked out the window, but trust me it is. Spring racing is underway, and with big races ahead it is important to look back and reflect on what we saw on the weekend.
Ocean Park
Seems like the logical place to start. The best thing about the stunning performance on Saturday is that he probably had excuses as to why it was not his best performance, he should improve from this point as well. At Hastings on the weekend most winners were coming from the front part of the field and not a lot were making up ground from the back, while OP didn't drop back as far as he has in past runners from his handy draw, he made ground to win with a stunning turn of foot. He will be better over more distance, he will be better on good ground. It was a great ride from Lisa Allpress and he didn't get all the favours in the straight. He will improve.
Current Odds
Cox Plate $14; Caulfield Cup $16
Mufhasa
Not sure what to make from his performance, he came into a very strong favourite before the start. Khemosabi challenged him and he faded over the last 100m or so. I did notice that Sam Spratt dropped her whip at some point in the straight, it is hard to make out on the replay on the NZ Racing site. It is impossible to know if it made a difference, but I cannot imagine it helped. I am sure we are not done with Mufhasa in Group 1's and make sure to keep him safe over 1600m in the Windsor Park Plate.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5
Xanadu
Another eye catching finish and another who should improve with more distance and from that run. She is a big strong 4YO mare who almost certainly must have Australian aspirations. She was another who came from deep to perform against the way most runners were performing on the day. She has already had strong form over 1600m and it would not surprise to see her win over 2000m, she is very capable of winning the Winsor Park Plate and/or Spring Classic.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5; Spring Classic $5
Justanexcuse
So close to the upset on the weekend, a great ride and good tactics almost got him there. 1600m has been a tough distance for him since October last year, with most attempts against Group 1 level competition. It was a good performance, but it would be surprising to see him go two better in the Windsor.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $21
Guiseppina
Another encouraging performance. She came at them late to finish fifth. Her best results have all been between 1200-1400m but she is capable at 1600m. Are the connections looking at another trip to Australia this spring? A good performance in the Windsor may be needed if we are to consider her better than the 15th in last years Myer Classic.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $7
Time Keeper
Wins generally have come after 10 starts, he out performed his expectations but it would surprise for him to show up like that again in two weeks.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $41: Spring Classic $41
Green Supreme
Had a fairly sweet trip for a runner who was 3 wide, the cover from Baby Guinness was important. You are probably going to like him more over 1600m and even more over 2000m, so the fast finish was important, a good track may have seen him closer. There is a lot to like moving forward and he may even offer some value in the Windsor as Xanadu, Mufhasa, and Guiseppina attract attention.
Current Odds
Windsor $7; Spring Classic $5
Fleur de Lune
Probably didn't live up to expectations, but possibly didn't get the smooth trip you might have expected from that draw. It looked like she was blocked a couple of times in the straight just as she was trying to make her run, hard to know how much it hurt her performance, but it did get a mention in the Stewards report. I am not sure she is better suited to 1600m, but she is certainly capable.
Windsor $15; Classic $31
He's Remarkable
He has now had 3 straight performances to forget, but the last two have been on dead tracks, and Saturday's was upgraded from Slow not long before the race. 1600m is where he will be at his best, so he is worthy of another look. With a couple of trips to Aussie under his belt it would not be unexpected to see a return, but I cannot imagine the Cox Plate as a realistic location based off that performance.
Windsor $8; Classic $10; Cox Plate $101
3YO's
I certainly liked what I saw from Kate over 1200m in the first from the bay. It looks like she has improved from age 2 and won a tough race. Dorian Grey came home well into second which was worth noting, It will be interesting to see these two again. In Tauranga Kate's stablemate Perfect Start made a perfect start to her racing career winning while making up a lot of ground on the straight.
Civics Rock/Villify
Also at Tauranga Civics Rock was very impressive finishing off strongly to dominate a small field with some talent. Villify will need to take a lot of improvement from that run to feature in the Windsor, 1600m is certainly more suitable and he did finish reasonably strongly, still $13 seems a little short.
Windsor $13 (Villify)
Back In Black
A strong win over 1600m, he seems to go well in Hastings at this time of year, 2000m should suit, but he was fairly inconsistent last year. Still at $41 in the Spring classic he is certainly not the worst on offer, I imagine he will have a run on the Second day, so he is one to watch.
Spring Classic $41
No Excuse Maggie/Smoulder/Platinum Passion/Intransigent
Not a whole lot to write home about from this Group 1 nominated bunch. Intransigent had to do too much work. No Excuse Maggie seemed a bit keen, but got a good trip. Platinum Passion had a sweet trip and ran on a bit. Smoulder ran home well. We probably wanted to see a bit more from this bunch of runners if they are going to go on to have Group 1 success. The eye-catching performance was from Amberio who has been quietly successful over the past 12 months plus, she is one to look out for next start.
Current Odds
Windsor
No Excuse Maggie $41
Smoulder $61
Spring Classic
Intransigent $101
Platinum Passion $101
Two more winners who were very good on the day were Papilo and The Knight. No idea where they may be heading, but it is worth having a look when you see them.
Quick Aussie Notes
How long will Pierro remain undefeated and how many Group 1's will he win in Melbourne this Spring? last seasons star 2YO continued his winning streak on route to the Caulfield Guineas and possibly the Cox Plate. He was challenged by Your Song who was impressive, and also beat All Too Hard who missed 3rd by a head bob and finished 5th. All Too Hard and Pierro no longer have a rivalry, Pierro is established as clearly superior.
Current Odds
Golden Rose
All Too Hard $7.50
Your Song $9 (might be unlikely to start I think I heard on Saturday, so do your research)
Epaulette $9
Ninth Legion $16
Cox Plate
All Too Hard $51
Pierro $6
Glencadam Gold won over 1800m against a range of cups possibles, but hard to read too much into it this far out. If you liked it there are still very good odds available for both big cups.
In Melbourne Sincero won the Memsie Stakes. I always look at this as the first race to consider as runners build to the big three. Sincero was very strong in Sydney last spring before heading to Melbourne and probably been a bit outclassed, this looks like a sign of improvement. This was a pretty Strong field which included Green Moon (2nd 2011 Caulfield Cup), Wall Street, Maluckyday (2010 2nd Melbourne Cup, Lexus winner), Heart of Dreams (Group 1 winner, second in Memsie last year), Rekindled Interest (3rd Mackinnon and Cox Plate last year), Niwot (Lexus winner 2011, Sydney Cup winner 2012), Sanagas (nothing to see here just yet), and Midas Touch (3rd Underwood, 3rd Makybe Diva last year). There is a lot to consider from that race.
Current Odds
Sincero - Cox Plate $16, Caulfield Cup $41
Green Moon - Cox Plate $21, Caulfield Cup $14, Melbourne Cup (pre noms) $18
Wall Street - Cox Plate $101, CC $81
Maluckyday - Cox Plate $81, CC $31, MC $26
Heart of Dreams - CP $101
Rekindled Interest - CP $12
Niwot - CP $151, CC $41, MC $41
Sanagas - CP $101, CC $51, MC $51
Midas Touch - CP $201, CC $61, MC $81
Probably not a lot to worry about just yet, but good to monitor.
Ocean Park
Seems like the logical place to start. The best thing about the stunning performance on Saturday is that he probably had excuses as to why it was not his best performance, he should improve from this point as well. At Hastings on the weekend most winners were coming from the front part of the field and not a lot were making up ground from the back, while OP didn't drop back as far as he has in past runners from his handy draw, he made ground to win with a stunning turn of foot. He will be better over more distance, he will be better on good ground. It was a great ride from Lisa Allpress and he didn't get all the favours in the straight. He will improve.
Current Odds
Cox Plate $14; Caulfield Cup $16
Mufhasa
Not sure what to make from his performance, he came into a very strong favourite before the start. Khemosabi challenged him and he faded over the last 100m or so. I did notice that Sam Spratt dropped her whip at some point in the straight, it is hard to make out on the replay on the NZ Racing site. It is impossible to know if it made a difference, but I cannot imagine it helped. I am sure we are not done with Mufhasa in Group 1's and make sure to keep him safe over 1600m in the Windsor Park Plate.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5
Xanadu
Another eye catching finish and another who should improve with more distance and from that run. She is a big strong 4YO mare who almost certainly must have Australian aspirations. She was another who came from deep to perform against the way most runners were performing on the day. She has already had strong form over 1600m and it would not surprise to see her win over 2000m, she is very capable of winning the Winsor Park Plate and/or Spring Classic.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5; Spring Classic $5
Justanexcuse
So close to the upset on the weekend, a great ride and good tactics almost got him there. 1600m has been a tough distance for him since October last year, with most attempts against Group 1 level competition. It was a good performance, but it would be surprising to see him go two better in the Windsor.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $21
Guiseppina
Another encouraging performance. She came at them late to finish fifth. Her best results have all been between 1200-1400m but she is capable at 1600m. Are the connections looking at another trip to Australia this spring? A good performance in the Windsor may be needed if we are to consider her better than the 15th in last years Myer Classic.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $7
Time Keeper
Wins generally have come after 10 starts, he out performed his expectations but it would surprise for him to show up like that again in two weeks.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $41: Spring Classic $41
Green Supreme
Had a fairly sweet trip for a runner who was 3 wide, the cover from Baby Guinness was important. You are probably going to like him more over 1600m and even more over 2000m, so the fast finish was important, a good track may have seen him closer. There is a lot to like moving forward and he may even offer some value in the Windsor as Xanadu, Mufhasa, and Guiseppina attract attention.
Current Odds
Windsor $7; Spring Classic $5
Fleur de Lune
Probably didn't live up to expectations, but possibly didn't get the smooth trip you might have expected from that draw. It looked like she was blocked a couple of times in the straight just as she was trying to make her run, hard to know how much it hurt her performance, but it did get a mention in the Stewards report. I am not sure she is better suited to 1600m, but she is certainly capable.
Windsor $15; Classic $31
He's Remarkable
He has now had 3 straight performances to forget, but the last two have been on dead tracks, and Saturday's was upgraded from Slow not long before the race. 1600m is where he will be at his best, so he is worthy of another look. With a couple of trips to Aussie under his belt it would not be unexpected to see a return, but I cannot imagine the Cox Plate as a realistic location based off that performance.
Windsor $8; Classic $10; Cox Plate $101
3YO's
I certainly liked what I saw from Kate over 1200m in the first from the bay. It looks like she has improved from age 2 and won a tough race. Dorian Grey came home well into second which was worth noting, It will be interesting to see these two again. In Tauranga Kate's stablemate Perfect Start made a perfect start to her racing career winning while making up a lot of ground on the straight.
Civics Rock/Villify
Also at Tauranga Civics Rock was very impressive finishing off strongly to dominate a small field with some talent. Villify will need to take a lot of improvement from that run to feature in the Windsor, 1600m is certainly more suitable and he did finish reasonably strongly, still $13 seems a little short.
Windsor $13 (Villify)
Back In Black
A strong win over 1600m, he seems to go well in Hastings at this time of year, 2000m should suit, but he was fairly inconsistent last year. Still at $41 in the Spring classic he is certainly not the worst on offer, I imagine he will have a run on the Second day, so he is one to watch.
Spring Classic $41
No Excuse Maggie/Smoulder/Platinum Passion/Intransigent
Not a whole lot to write home about from this Group 1 nominated bunch. Intransigent had to do too much work. No Excuse Maggie seemed a bit keen, but got a good trip. Platinum Passion had a sweet trip and ran on a bit. Smoulder ran home well. We probably wanted to see a bit more from this bunch of runners if they are going to go on to have Group 1 success. The eye-catching performance was from Amberio who has been quietly successful over the past 12 months plus, she is one to look out for next start.
Current Odds
Windsor
No Excuse Maggie $41
Smoulder $61
Spring Classic
Intransigent $101
Platinum Passion $101
Two more winners who were very good on the day were Papilo and The Knight. No idea where they may be heading, but it is worth having a look when you see them.
Quick Aussie Notes
How long will Pierro remain undefeated and how many Group 1's will he win in Melbourne this Spring? last seasons star 2YO continued his winning streak on route to the Caulfield Guineas and possibly the Cox Plate. He was challenged by Your Song who was impressive, and also beat All Too Hard who missed 3rd by a head bob and finished 5th. All Too Hard and Pierro no longer have a rivalry, Pierro is established as clearly superior.
Current Odds
Golden Rose
All Too Hard $7.50
Your Song $9 (might be unlikely to start I think I heard on Saturday, so do your research)
Epaulette $9
Ninth Legion $16
Cox Plate
All Too Hard $51
Pierro $6
Glencadam Gold won over 1800m against a range of cups possibles, but hard to read too much into it this far out. If you liked it there are still very good odds available for both big cups.
In Melbourne Sincero won the Memsie Stakes. I always look at this as the first race to consider as runners build to the big three. Sincero was very strong in Sydney last spring before heading to Melbourne and probably been a bit outclassed, this looks like a sign of improvement. This was a pretty Strong field which included Green Moon (2nd 2011 Caulfield Cup), Wall Street, Maluckyday (2010 2nd Melbourne Cup, Lexus winner), Heart of Dreams (Group 1 winner, second in Memsie last year), Rekindled Interest (3rd Mackinnon and Cox Plate last year), Niwot (Lexus winner 2011, Sydney Cup winner 2012), Sanagas (nothing to see here just yet), and Midas Touch (3rd Underwood, 3rd Makybe Diva last year). There is a lot to consider from that race.
Current Odds
Sincero - Cox Plate $16, Caulfield Cup $41
Green Moon - Cox Plate $21, Caulfield Cup $14, Melbourne Cup (pre noms) $18
Wall Street - Cox Plate $101, CC $81
Maluckyday - Cox Plate $81, CC $31, MC $26
Heart of Dreams - CP $101
Rekindled Interest - CP $12
Niwot - CP $151, CC $41, MC $41
Sanagas - CP $101, CC $51, MC $51
Midas Touch - CP $201, CC $61, MC $81
Probably not a lot to worry about just yet, but good to monitor.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)