Makfi Challenge Stakes Preview

Wow, the first Group 1 of the Season, does this feel early to you? where has the winter gone. September 1 is actually slightly later than it has been over the past few years, last time the race was in the month of September was back in 2007 when Seachange won the second of her two back-to-back Mudgway's (as it was then known), can Mufhasa defend his title 5 years to the day?

There are a lot of unknowns at this point in the season, who will come back strong from a winter off? who will continue their winter form into this higher level of racing? which 4 year old is going to step up and build on their 3YO form? and are we going to see the same old vintage Mufhasa? if we are this race may already be over. Looking at the odds on offer $4.40, the TAB is unsure what to expect. They are almost as uncertain as the rain forecast over these next few days.

This race has been won by fairly favoured runners over the past handful of years, the only blowout winner was Tavistock in 2009 at over $40, the only other double digit winner since the Seachange's first win in 2006 was Keep The Peace, she was probably better than that and went on to win other Group 1's, so I think it was worth keeping the favourites pretty safe.

#1 Mufhasa (5)

He is now age 8 and will be having his 51st start, I don't think we need to spend a lot of time going into his vast and impressive resume. I think you could easily argue that not only was Mufhasa the New Zealand horse of the year for the 2011/12 year, but that it was the finest year of his career. He has been so good and consistent since this race last year that I don't even know where you would start to search for a reason not to include him.

#2 Justanexcuse (6)

Seemed to tire over the second half of his campaign last year. Has been back for one start and should be better for it, he has a pretty good 2nd up record. Wins last year did not really come against this level of competition but all came at this distance and two at or above 59kg. Hard to include, but possibly a bit of value at $26 currently.

#3 Fritzy Boy (13)

The second former winner of this race in the field. He was off for almost a year when he returned strongly at Waikato recently. I thought that run showed some heart, and he may find himself in a similar position from a wide barrier this week. He always seems to go well in this set of races, 5th last year in this race. He will also go well with a bit of rain. Not a lot of recent form to go on, but if you consider a $15 winner to be an upset he might be the best chance of an upset in this race, except...

#4 Green Supreme (3)

... is paying the same as Fritzy Boy at this point.

There was a lot to like about the season of Green Supreme last year, he effectively returned from overseas racing in 2010 at rating 70 and by the end of the year was racing at Group 1 Level with a rating around 100.
I am still not sure what this horse is, forget the Wellington Cup start, will we see him work his way up to that distance this year? the win over 1400m at Awapuni was great, the finish in the Easter was strong. He will likely start slowly from barrier 3 and sprint for home. He won twice on a slow track last year so I am not sure what the concern is.

#5 I am Sam (2)

Could be a real opportunist here with wet weather. He has had strong winter form and performs best over 1400m. This class is a big test, and I am not sure it is one he is capable of passing, but maybe one to include in multiples if it is very wet.

#6 The Hombre (8)

He was very competitive last year, including a narrow loss at Group 1 victory. He has had one run back, he was not as strong as we have come to expect first up, I am happy to put that down to the track and give him another chance 2nd up, where he has been consistently strong. This is a test, but 1400m at Hawkes Bay suits the John Bary trained runner, if the rain stays away I am sure you will see him shorter than the $26 currently on offer.

#7 He's Remarkable (17)

Another to win a Group 1 in Australia last year. What? oh, that's right, shhhh.
His Autumn in Sydney was not as successful as his Spring in Aussie, but he is definitely capable in this class. He won on this track last year before leaving for Melbourne and will be looking to do the same this year. He is far less remarkable in the wet, but not terrible. He suffered from a string of wide draws at age 3 but was lucky last year in that area, barrier 17 could prove difficult.

#8 Time Keeper (12)

He is usually pretty consistent. He is a Group 1 Winner, but that was carrying very little at handicap conditions.He should be fit for running through the winter, all of his wins have come after ten starts other than his one this campaign.  His best results have been on good tracks, but I would expect to see him race in any conditions. This might be a big ask for Sir Slick 2.0.

#9 Khemosabi (14)

Solid throughout the winter, but this is much harder. Will be racing at his favoured distance, and will be hoping for rain. Has risen through the ranks but WFA conditions rule him out this time.

#10 Ocean Park (4)

Despite the wraps on him prior to pulling out of the derby last year, and the strong performance in his Guineas second place at Rosehill I am still not sure what to make of the second favourite.
What can we say from his record? He is consistent, he has never won (or started) at 1400m, his one start on a slow track was not his best (albeit against very tough competition), he is drawn well (but hasn't really made the most of strong draws in the past, generally still overpowering fields). The main question is really around the 1400m, is this what he is aiming for, or will be be better with a couple of starts over more distance? He is talented and you have to give him a chance, maybe the domination of the Wellington Stakes is the race to go back and watch, but this is tougher and I am not sure I would take him at $4.60, but I certainly don't have the guts to leave him off the podium.

#11  Fleur de Lune (1)

Might she have finally found the form to get that Group 1 victory? four Group1 placings, including 3rd in this race last year. 1400m is ideal and she could have possibly improved from the Foxbridge run. It is hard to question her on any surface. Considering the runners between her and Mufhasa in 5 she should get a very sweet trip in behind a likely leader. If I had major concerns over Mufhasa this is where I would be looking.

#12 Guiseppina (17)

She had a great year last year, and will look to build on that this year. Always solid first up but usually better second up, she will need good ground to show her best. She is good under WFA conditions and will probably be running home well, she won a Group 1 last year from barrier 18, so don't rule her out on the draw.

#13 Art Beat (10)

Has to be considered on a wet track, but will the track improve too much and hurt her chances. I always liked this runner and she is coming off the biggest win of her career. She has had more success under handicap conditions and this just looks too tough.

#14 No Excuse Maggie (15)

Another local, who enjoys this distance and would be a chance if the track remains moist. She does tend to win after a few runs as evidenced by her performance last start at Otaki. She has not been as strong in conditions with a set weight. Her one Group 1 outing last year was solid, but there is a difference in class. The draw is not really a concern, she should be handy and able to get across relatively easy on Saturday.

#15 Innovation (18)

Rose quickly through the grades with good success over the winter, but didn't really match it with the classier 3YO's early in that year. None of those wins are really comparable to this race and the impressive winter cup was still under handicap conditions. She will be better off than some as a 4YO mare at 56.5kg, and another who is more likeable if the track remains slow, but there are others I prefer more...

#16 Xanadu (10)

... such as another 4YO mare, one which should be far more preferred. A heap of merit from the run in the Waikato, although she had won on a slow track she looked to get through that ground very nicely. 200m further will suit. A Group 1 3rd only four months ago, but she will carry an extra 2kg as a 4YO Saturday. She was great early at age 3 and could go well to start off her 4YO campaign.

#17 Baby Guinness (9)

She is a possible starter. I just wanted to quickly comment that I thought the run in the tron was actually pretty good, she looked to run on well into 5th then fade over the last 50m. That was the first start since the summer and she probably needed it after over-racing throughout. I don't think she is up to this class, but she is a solid performer who might be interesting in multiples.

The Picks

Winner: Mufhasa - If this race was run in April he would have been the clear favourite, I don't really see what has changed.
Second: Fleur de Lune - I actually like her for second, but I am worried about the FdL tax, this little known rule of nature which states she must never quite live up to expectations.
Third: Ocean Park - I really don't know, I don't think he is as good as Jimmy Choux was coming into this last year, and feel like 1600m will be better, but he is hard to leave out.
Fourth: The Hombre - I went back and forth with He's Remarkable and Green Supreme for this spot. I think the track will improve, but maybe not quite enough for the other two.

What has changed since the Daimond Stakes?

What has happened in between the 2YO's we will see in the Group 1 Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes this season?

-On New Years Day, in the Eclipse Stakes, of runners competing in the Oaks Stud Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes the finishing order was Warhorse, Irish Rebel, Magic Shaft.

- Moving forward to January 21st in Wellington, the Little Avondale Stud Wakefield Challenge Stakes, we saw a finishing order of Irish Rebel, Liberating.

-The Karaka Million was run on the 29th of January, the finishing order was Warhorse, Choice Bro, Mai Guru.

-  Moving into February the 2YO division saw Choice Bro beat Lumiere Blue and Liberating in Taranaki in the Platinum Homes 2YO Classic.

- A week later was a big day at Matamata, we first saw the Reid and Harrision Slipper and watched Magic Shaft better Irish Rebel and Travino, which was the first time we saw a change in one of the major 2YO features since New Years Day. Later that day in the J Swap Contractors Matamata Breeders Stakes we saw them finish Rollout the Carpet, Liberating, Lady de Chine.

- Then in the seasons first 2YO Group 1 we the Haunui Farm Diamond Stakes at Ellerslie, they crossed the line Rollout the Carpet, Warhorse, Soriano, Travino, Choice Bro, and Mai Guru. Warhorse and Rollout the Carpet were reversed in the judges room, and there are question marks as to how her performance may have effected other runners, but it is clear looking at the Two year olds this year there have not been a lot of major shakeups (in these major races at least).

The question is will this change this weekend? The big difference is that they will be competing over 1400m.

Lets look at what we have seen over these seven races to date with the eleven horses who have competed against each other to try to create a ranking. This ranking wont take into account performance or magnitude of the race, simply a Rock, Paper, Scissors type breakdown.

The above table shows the evolution over time of who beat who and by roughly how much. The major change was in the Diamond Stakes because Choice Bro finished well below expectations and Travino finished much closer, that indicates to me that we are in for a close race.


What can explain these significant changes?

Travino was great before Christmas, if those results were taken into account he probably would have begun this table in a higher position, he might be getting fitter, and had claims he was interfered with in that last race.

Choice Bro's best result in the 2YO classic was left handed, the race Daimond Stakes was at Ellerslie Right Handed, he finished about 2.5 lengths behind Warhorse, about an additional length from the Karaka Million, not majorly significant, but does indicate some course and distance regression relative to Warhorse, particularly when you consider that Mai Guru was about 2.5 lengths behind in both races.


Who has excuses from that race?
Mai Guru raced about four wide for most of the event. If we really look at that finish, if not for the fright Rollout the Carpet would have probably won that race. Choice Bro was coming from deep and really never a chance but did make up ground. Warhorse was clearly effected by Rollout the Carpet, Mai Guru was effected by Warhorse, and Travino was effected by Mai Guru. Warhorse had continued interference, Travino and Mai Guru cut inside and Mai Guru was squeezed between Travino and Soriano.


What is different about this weekend's race?
It is 1400m, who might that help?
Rollout the Carpet, Warhorse, Soriano, Travino and Choice Bro all seemed to run out the 1200m very well, 1400m should suit. Magic Shaft looked suited, Irish Rebel could use more ground (Guineas winner in the Spring?).

The Fix is in!
We have the addition of Fix into the mix. What can we expect from this winner of two from two. She got up late to win her maiden over 1000m and then really used the extra 100m well to smash them at Ellerslie. 1400m should suit, she is a major player here.


Who might be better suited going Left Handed?
I think it is fair to include Choice Bro in here as a horse may improve going left, only because of the victory over Ockham's Razor following Ockham's Razors Karaka Million victory. We are generally looking at a small sample size but Warhorse's only "failure" was left handed at Te Rapa, Mai Guru looked good left and has not done as well right (in much tougher races), Rollout the Carpet has had one run right and we saw what happened (although it looked like a fright more than anything), Liberating best work has been left. It does not really look like there is too much to read into these results.


Will anyone benefit from the Awapuni Location?
Lady de Chine is trained at Awapuni, Liberating and Lumiere Blue are others with less distance to travel. Irish Rebel and Choice Bro are the only ones to run a race on the track, the finished first and second in the same race back in December.

Has any performance been effected negatively or positively by track conditions? (right now the track is Dead 4, there is no significant rain forecast).
You can make a case this will be the best track Travino has ran on since his return from Australia. Lumiere Blue was 9th of 9th on a track rated 4, if it improves so does his record. Liberating seems to improve with a bit more moisture around. Lady de Chine went very well on good tracks before the run in the Matamata Breeders Stakes which was Dead.

Any Barrier Draw Concerns?
Warhorse and Choice Bro should get good runs to suit with a lot of runners outside them battling for the lead. A few potential leaders, Irish Rebel (4) , Magic Shaft (7), possibly Mai Guru (1), Rollout the Carpet (6), Fix (9). I think Fix may be suited to get across outside the leader where he has been in other races, however there is definitely a chance the likes of Magic Shaft and Fix can get caught wide if too many move forward. Soriano might be unlucky to be out in 11. Liberating performed well leading last time from a good draw, has tended to go back without much success when drawn wider so 12 is unlucky.

Any odds stand out?
Choice Bro, Left handed, conditions will suit, raced on the track, may be better with the shorter gap between races. $14 is value.
Travino, may get better conditions, unlucky last time, winner on the track. $9 seems fair.
Lumiere Blue, should run into decent conditions, has performed well against these runners in the past, pretty consistent and probably a better chance than $26.
Fix is at $12, there are a few unknowns for her, so $12 is fair, but could be the surprise package.
Lady de Chine is probably a better chance than $26, but there are a lot to like more.

How do I see them finishing?
First - Rollout the Carpet - Should already have a Group 1 to her credit
Second - Choice Bro - Give the benefit of the doubt, I think we see a better performance
Third - Irish Rebel - Matamata breeders finish was strong, an improvement from the Wellington run, should be set for this.
Fourth - Travino - Went back and forth between Warhorse and Magic Shaft before realising that things may be aligning for a strong Travino performance here.

I am very unsure about fourth, if you are having a first four try to go as wide as possible.

To go back to the question at the top, has much changed since the Diamond Stakes? Clearly I think so.