What is it about raining Thursdays or Fridays this year? It makes it very difficult to make any kind of predictions about what might happen with remaining uncertainty over the potential track conditions. This time of year we see the return of a lot of winter runners, as well as summer runners finishing their run so it does really make a difference.
On initial glance this is a very difficult week to pick six, but with $250,000 on the table it is probably worth a shot.
Leg 1 - Race 4 - Rating 75 1200m
Hard to not include
#1 - A Keepa
Reason to Include
The most experienced 1200m horse in the field. Very close last time for fourth, steps back in rating and will have to carry more weight. Is consistent and well drawn.
Reason to leave out
The weight will be a factor, and the record at Te Rapa is also suspect, however has not run there since July and August of 2010, so there has been some time, overall he does seem to perform slightly better going right handed.
#2 - Baldovino
Reason to Include
He goes well fresh winning his first three starts before stepping up to Group 1 level earlier this season. Any rain should help improve his performance. The step back in class should suit, and the Te Rapa record is sound. The weight should not concern.
Reason to Leave out
Was early this season a flash in the pan?
#6 - Tango Terrific
Reason to include
Back after over a month off, that is a state in which he has performed well in the past. His last start was at rating 85 over 1400m at Ellerslie, he finished 7th, but he fought on well and really only faded over the last 150m. Has won over the distance.
Reason to leave out
Back in class so will carry significant more weight, he has only ever carried 58kg once for 7th. Has not run left handed a lot throughout his career.
Consider Including
#8 Lucy in Disguise
Reason to include
Super consistent runner. Will go well with a bit of moisture around. 3rd up, has won after a few starts before so should be ready. Last start winner who looked good in that race. 1200 record is strong.
Reason to leave out
This is tougher than the last victory, he will also carry an extra 2kg. She seems to have shown a lot of improvement into this preparation, so it is interesting to see if that will continue. Drawn barrier 15, not the best starter so could have a bit of extra work to do in this company.
#12 - Street Party
Reason to include
Was unlucky stepping up last start, was racing up in class prior to this. Back to 1200m which is an ideal distance and is well weighted here.
Reason to leave out
Barrier 19 will make things tough, she was drawn 14 four starts back and it was not ideal, so she may struggle here. The rain may make things difficult.
#14 - Cap Eden Roc
Reason to include
The overall record stands out, good over the distance, and if the surface is dead she has performed well.
Reason to leave out
Has struggled stepping up in class, she might be well backed but struggle here.
#3 - Prince of Wales
Reasons to Include
Will have his first start since boxing day 2010, he always goes well fresh. A very consistent runner, only once out of the first four. Should go well over 1200m although will potentially be searching for more distance.
Reason to leave out
A question over the long lay out, I also question the amount of weight he might carry here. Draw may make things a bit tough.
#9 - Sateka
Reasons to include
A well weighted mare who has been in good form recently.
Reason to leave out
This looks a big step up, this race contains some tough competition.
Leg 2 - Race 5 - 3YO Group 3 - 1200m
Hard not to include
#2 - Burgundy
Reason to include
A lot has been said about the win in the Mr Tiz Trophy last start, 1200m is going to suit this very classy runner. Possible anchor who wont worry about the conditions and is drawn to get an ideal run. He could overpower them.
Reason not to include
Watch the last start of Ginner Hart again, while that is not a reason not to include, it is a reason he may not be the perfect Anchor. He has been well backed a lot of times and not always proved himself worthy of the hype.
#1 - Ginner Hart
Reason to include
Was close to flawless last week against a tough field of more experienced runners. Dropping back to 1200m has suited well, he will handle all conditions well.
Reason not to include
He will carry the same set weight here, that is 3.5kg more than last week. You have to go back to early starts as a 2YO and 3YO since he has carried that and looked good.
Consider Including
#9 - Holy Moly
Reason to include
One of the best non winning performances of the year was her 3rd here in October, that was to Antonio Lombardo and Anabandana, while beating Artistic, Chicarita and Caiprinha. That was a long time ago, but she is classy at best. She has shown some of that in her last two starts. It looks like another run over 1200m will suit.
Reason to leave out
She tailed off quickly after a good start to the season against tougher competition.
#5 Golden Globe
Reason to include
Has been super consistent in a limited number of starts but has displayed potential. He has been freshened since November and has won in that state before. Looks like a pure sprinter and will not mind any rain.
Reason to Leave out
This seems like a step up in class, he will face some accomplished runners this weekend. Drawn wide, but will push forward so may negate that.
#3 Precision King
Reason to include
As consistent as he has been he has looked really good over his last couple of starts. He has been great over 1200m and on left handed tracks. He will handle the ground well.
Reason to leave out
He has seemed to get some interference or maybe just not started well the last couple of times from similar draws, he might try to push forward, but it looks like there are a few speedy runners which could make this a challenging task.
#4 - Casting Stones
Reason to include
Has won last two starts, consistent before that, looks like 1200m is ideal.
Reason to leave out
Drawn wide, is taking a step up in class, was pretty handily beaten he took on some of the better 3YO's in December and this is tougher.
Leg 3 - Race 6 - Open Handicap - 1600m
Hard to Leave out
#2 Alegrio
Reason to include
He didn't disappoint stepping up to Group 1 level with a solid and close 8th. 1600m is his best distance and he does go well at Te Rapa with a couple of wins.
Reason to leave out
The start before the Easter Handicap was less impressive, he will carry an extra 2kg here because of the relative drop in quality. Consistent early this year and has tailed off a bit, however has previously won several races after a number of starts.
#7 - Sum Up
Reason to include
Two races of note, the 6th in the Easter Handicap was strong, and the second in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was also notable.
Reason to leave out
There is a case to be made that more distance would better suit, however in this company over 1600m I think he will go well. The wide draw may concern, he has been pretty lucky with draws recently.
Consider Including
#1 - Indikator
Reason to include
Wasn't terrible when 8th second up last time, however he has won 5 times 3rd or 4th up, so he should be ready for this. 1600m is a distance he has won on and he showed it with a good finish last time. He will suit any track conditions.
Reason to leave out
He is probably searching for a bit more distance, he has not won over less than 2000m for some time now.
#3 Atom Cat
Reason to include
9th behind Alegrio in the Easter, but there was a gap. He might have had and excuse, he did come for them late, in a smaller field he may have ran closer. He will like some give in the track and has won 3rd up a couple of times. I thought he might give some cheek last time, maybe this is the time to watch out.
Reason to leave out
It has been a while between drinks, he has not been great of late. It feels like he should be racing in this class, but he has not been winning.
#5 Worthing
Reason to include
I always like a runner who
performs of a track even when things are not going as well elsewhere.
He was in better form the last couple of Te Rapa runs before the failure
here this prep.
Reason to leave out
He has not been in the best form, you would be taking purely because of his preference for the track.
#15 Time Keeper
Reason to include
The run on Wednesday was very strong. Not sure if we can expect to see a run or not, but I suspect you may have to include if we do. Has won 3 in a row before, but each had a two week break.
Reason to leave out
This is a horse who gets better with running, but two in 4 days? and for a $40k Open race, what is the point? It will be interesting to see how Sir Slick 2.0 goes. By my count he has run 13 times with as little as a week between runs (5 weeks in a row at one point), he has only won 1 of those races.
Leg 4 - Race 7 - 3YO - 2000m (You are very happy if you are still alive right now)
Hard to Leave out
#3 Post D'France
Reason to include
Looks a great staying prospect as he has built to a strong win last start. This is slightly tougher, but he has always ran on well enough to indicate that 2000m+ is suitable.
Reason to leave out
Has not really been as consistent and this step up in class may be a concern.
#2 Red Shift
Reason to include
He has been freshened since decent performance in the Derby, back to 2000m and back in class, at a distance which would appear to suit against runners who are at his level. Now with Roger James who is having an outstanding run. One of those runners who always looks good before races, he is big and strong and should get better.
Reason to leave out
You could argue he is impossible to leave out. If you are going to leave him out possibly look to the 7th two starts back.
Consider including
#1 Dowager Queen
Reason to include
This consistent filly has been good without been outstanding since her return from Melbourne. She was freshened slightly before her last start and is now building up to more suitable distances. She will come for them and hit the line well, she will handle moisture in the track.
Reason to leave out
Leave out if you are not sure of the recent form. If you took away what she did in Melbourne she is probably hard to have here.
#7 Ryan John
Reason to include
Still a maiden, but probably improved for the 2000m start, that was actually at a higher grade, so he should be more suited to this. Pretty decent third on the track last start, locally trained.
Reason to leave out
Maiden runner, dead track may have concerned two starts back.
#9 Vittoria
Reason to include
Fourth in the Oaks in Victoria shows ability, she should improve with a couple of runs and more distance. The 9th last start was only 3 lengths back, not too bad.
Reason to leave out
Is a three length loss at rating 75 enough evidence that she will improve enough to win this, I am not so sure.
#6 Tiberius
Reason to include
Looks like an improving runner who will be suited to the rise in distance.
Reason to leave out
The rise in class might be the concern.
Leg 5 - Race 8 - F&M WFA Group 2 - 2000m (excitement building if you are still alive)
Hard to leave out
#1 Postmans Daughter
Reason to include
My pro Postmans Daughter bias will be exposed here, but I think she has been great all year. She proved it in the Easter, 1600m was short of ideal and she impressed for a very close second.2000m should be ideal. She has had two fourths at Open WFA level over this distance, both times beaten by the boys and Shez Sinsational/Scarlett Lady
Reason to leave out
While she was not far off at Te Aorah I thought she might be due for a break then she showed up in the Easter, but that was under a very light weight.
#3 Lady Kipling
Reason to include
Has beaten Postmans Daughter under these conditions. Not last time, but at Boxing day. Beat PD last start at equal weight over 1600m. 2000m is going to suit.Good record at Te Rapa.
Reason to leave out
Although capable, she has never won past 1600m.
Consider including
#16 Joy's Choice
Reason to include
3YO runners in WFA
conditions are certainly tempting. She has looked good this year and has
improved over more distance. 5th in the Oaks, and two good runs prior
to that over 2000 and 2100m. She also seems to like Te Rapa
Reason to leave out
Despite going close a few times she has not won at this type of level. This is tough against the older runners.
#2 Floria
Reasons to include
Handled WFA conditions well when 6th in the Group 1. This is similar but longer. The added distance shouldn't be a massive issue.
Reasons to leave out
The race is quite similar to other races which have not resulted in success.
#5 Villify
Reason to include
I like more in the rain, but she looks like the step up to 2000m may be suitable. She has won here and the draw will be ideal.
Reason to leave out
Still looks more suitable to handicap conditions a this stage.
#9 Mini Pearl
Reason to include
Probably would not have been this high on her before her last start, however that was a pretty good win over this distance against decent competition. Seemed to be building well towards that point and scored a good victory.
Reason to leave out
Seems to be best on good tracks, and this is a big step up from recent starts.
Leg 6 - Race 9 - Rating 75 - 2400m
Hard to leave out
#7 Manhattan Mam
Reason to include
On the strength of that last victory. Was pretty good in the Oaks and has carried on well. More distance should suit.
Reason to leave out
Yet to succeed left handed. Both wins have been on good tracks.
Consider including
#4 Gold Cape
Reason to include
Dropping back in class from a good 4th in a strong race over 2000m where she fought well. 2400m looks like a distance which will be suitable.
Reason to leave out
Yet to win over 2400m and will actually carry more weight than last start here.
#8 Bob Valdez
Reason to include
Strong winner here two
starts ago, looked like there was more to give. Has been pretty
consistent if you throw out the wet track results.
Reason to leave out
If the track is worse than dead or if it has been chopped up by this late
race (of course you will have already made this bet by then)
#3 Stingray
Reason to include
Consistent, beat Bob Valdez last time out. Has recently shown strong finishes, 2400m should suit.
Reason to leave out
Stepping up in grade, distance, and not really getting a lot of weight relief.
#5 Runaway Bride
Reason to include
Look at the odds she has paid this prep, even after winning 2 in a row she was still paying massive odds, she looks like one who is always over looked. 2400m should suit now.
Reason to leave out
Leave out if you don't believe this current form swing, she has been overlooked a lot recently.
How to play
It is a tough Pick 6 because there is no clear anchor, there are not even many legs where taking two would feel comfortable. Look at the last leg, what a mess, so I guess you have to consider weather you take a risk early and end up with five runners in the last leg, however there is no reason to have five runners when you are knocked out in the second leg.
Leg 1 - 1,2,6,8
Leg 2 - 1,2
Leg 3 - 2,7,1
Leg 4 - 2,3,7
Leg 5 - 1,3
Leg 6 - 7,4
That is 288 combinations, so maybe one to get together with some mates to try to get a percentage of it. If you want to go cheaper I would consider going only number 7 in the last as it is the anchor I am most comfortable with. I possibly would leave out number 7 in the fourth leg as well (or number 1 in the third), that would leave you with 96 combinations. I think we could get close to another jackpot for next week.
Showing posts with label Previews. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Previews. Show all posts
Friday, 27 April 2012
Thursday, 12 April 2012
Can Jimmy Choux win the Easter Handicap?
We approach the final Group 1 of the season with the same favourite as we approached the first Group 1 of the season. Veyron has had a great year, but if he was to carry the same weight as Jimmy Choux I don't think this would be a debate, Green Supreme was great a couple of weeks ago but is not yet at the class of these other two. The handicap conditions make this race very competitive and as you scroll down the list of nominees you see a lot of runners at their respective weight who can be competitive. The draw has made this race interesting, as had the threat of rain (I am going to try to avoid making a weather prediction this week, as most weeks I am wrong).
All things been equal Jimmy Choux wins this race. Critics will point to his first up record, but his last fresh start was a close second behind Mufhasa at Group 1 level, this fresh start may be slightly different because of his upcoming trip to Australia and this may be just a run to shake off the cobwebs and get him ready for those races. I don't think any ground will be an issue for Jimmy Choux, he has drawn 10, which is not a concern.
Veyron has had a great year, he will carry 2kg less than Jimmy Choux, he was a close second behind Scarlett Lady last start (who would have been considered by many on par with JC last spring before her injury). This was shaping up like a great race as Veyron also can handle all conditions, he has a fantastic record at Ellerslie, loves 1600m, goes very well after a bit of freshening. If the 2kg penalty was not enough to make you consider these two equal the barrier draw has really worked against Veyron and brings things back towards Jimmy Choux's favour.
Green Supreme is the other candidate with great potential. He won easily over 1400m last start and will take on the extra 200m here. He looked very good building up over ground before his 6th in the Wellington Cup. His 1600m and Auckland records and sound, and he has won twice on slow tracks. The handicap conditions will give him 55kg to carry which is only 500 grams more than he carried to victory last start. How good is he relative to Jimmy and Veyron is the big unknown. He has won carrying more at lower grades over the past couple of months, he has quickly risen through the grades and is suited to these Open handicap conditions, he is very well drawn to be a major factor.
There are two other runners backing up from last weeks Group 1, the handicap conditions should suit both Postman's Daughter and Fleur de Lune. Fleur de Lune was very close to a win last week, and has secured a good draw in this big field. Postman's Daughter will be .5kg better off this week in weight relative to FdL, who will carry 2.5kg less that the set weight from last week. Postman's Daughter was consistent before her 8th last week and might be ready for a break, Fleur de Lune seems to be coming on and should be well set for this despite the run last week. A little softness underfoot should not concern either runner, FdL goes better at Ellerslie. Both are contenders here, but Fleur de Lune is the better of the two, I am still not sure she will be able to better Green Supreme given the similar weights the two will carry.
Vonusti is the other Group 1 winner in the race (Unless Time Keeper makes it in), he is not really in that Group 1 form, and has not really been as consistent since Boxing Day. The distance he has run over has gone up and down over the last few months, he is pretty well weighted at 55.5kg and should be set for 1600m right now, he is always a danger at Ellerslie.
Others who stand out include Justanexcuse who seems to be getting back to close to his best form. He has been carrying significantly more since the Coupland's Mile which was a comparable weight. Most of his experience is going left but he did win well under a big weight last start. Might be one for odds if the rain comes. He meets Green Supreme relatively 1kg better off than when the two met last with Green Supreme winning by 1 length, is that enough to make this interesting?
It has been about 18 months since Atom Cat won his last race. However he might be worth considering if the conditions take a turn down. He enjoys Ellerslie, has a cosy barrier 4th draw, and has a decent 2nd up record. Actually most of Atom Cat's victories have come early in campaigns, so the resuming 4th possibly showed some promise as it relates to this race. He is carrying 53.5kg in this field which is a very significant light weight.
Of the Richard Collett trained runners I am leaning towards Riotous, he has a weight advantage over his stablemate Alegrio and is drawn better to really compete. Both have similar Ellerslie records, and I imagine that if it is wet the weight advantage should equalise them. I really enjoyed the win here last start, I would stay away if wet, but 52kg compares well to the second here during Auckland Cup week.
Steel Giant is a pretty good horse to only carry 52kg here. A course and distance win on a rain effected track was decent but the field was ripped up with scratchings that day. I wouldn't consider him on a wet track, the draw is a put off and at weights Justanexcuse is effectively dropping the same amount after beating him soundly last start.
Sum Up has been pretty good this season. 1600m is probably short of his best distance, but at weight on a wet track might give some value. This would be by far the biggest win of his career, but he has gone close in decent races and was not a disgrace at Group 1 level. He likes it right handed and recent performances at Ellerslie have shown merit.
Jetset Lad was another I liked, but was put off by the draw. 1600m should really suit, he can factor, but I cant see him winning.
When it comes down to making picks I really think it will depend on how fit Jimmy Choux is and how he will carry that big weight. I think he is better here than Veyron because of Veyron's draw, the next biggest threat is Green Supreme (considering I think he is more suited than Fleur de Lune), I am simply not sure how to compare these two runners. Overall record there is no comparison, at the same weight I would like Jimmy all day. In regard to Green Supreme he has still not really faced a challenge on this level, his next biggest challenge was the Wellington Cup recently, before this it was at 3rd at Group 1 level at age 3, although he has been winning fairly handily this prep, the field he will face on Saturday is very strong. He beat a number of runners here last start, but I still feel like despite the Jimmy Choux question marks I have to look his way in this race, he has been there before and is a proven commodity.
First - Jimmy Choux
Second - Green Supreme
Third - Veyron - He is in great form and loves Ellerslie
Fourth - Atom Cat - I like him more if the rain comes.
All things been equal Jimmy Choux wins this race. Critics will point to his first up record, but his last fresh start was a close second behind Mufhasa at Group 1 level, this fresh start may be slightly different because of his upcoming trip to Australia and this may be just a run to shake off the cobwebs and get him ready for those races. I don't think any ground will be an issue for Jimmy Choux, he has drawn 10, which is not a concern.
Veyron has had a great year, he will carry 2kg less than Jimmy Choux, he was a close second behind Scarlett Lady last start (who would have been considered by many on par with JC last spring before her injury). This was shaping up like a great race as Veyron also can handle all conditions, he has a fantastic record at Ellerslie, loves 1600m, goes very well after a bit of freshening. If the 2kg penalty was not enough to make you consider these two equal the barrier draw has really worked against Veyron and brings things back towards Jimmy Choux's favour.
Green Supreme is the other candidate with great potential. He won easily over 1400m last start and will take on the extra 200m here. He looked very good building up over ground before his 6th in the Wellington Cup. His 1600m and Auckland records and sound, and he has won twice on slow tracks. The handicap conditions will give him 55kg to carry which is only 500 grams more than he carried to victory last start. How good is he relative to Jimmy and Veyron is the big unknown. He has won carrying more at lower grades over the past couple of months, he has quickly risen through the grades and is suited to these Open handicap conditions, he is very well drawn to be a major factor.
There are two other runners backing up from last weeks Group 1, the handicap conditions should suit both Postman's Daughter and Fleur de Lune. Fleur de Lune was very close to a win last week, and has secured a good draw in this big field. Postman's Daughter will be .5kg better off this week in weight relative to FdL, who will carry 2.5kg less that the set weight from last week. Postman's Daughter was consistent before her 8th last week and might be ready for a break, Fleur de Lune seems to be coming on and should be well set for this despite the run last week. A little softness underfoot should not concern either runner, FdL goes better at Ellerslie. Both are contenders here, but Fleur de Lune is the better of the two, I am still not sure she will be able to better Green Supreme given the similar weights the two will carry.
Vonusti is the other Group 1 winner in the race (Unless Time Keeper makes it in), he is not really in that Group 1 form, and has not really been as consistent since Boxing Day. The distance he has run over has gone up and down over the last few months, he is pretty well weighted at 55.5kg and should be set for 1600m right now, he is always a danger at Ellerslie.
Others who stand out include Justanexcuse who seems to be getting back to close to his best form. He has been carrying significantly more since the Coupland's Mile which was a comparable weight. Most of his experience is going left but he did win well under a big weight last start. Might be one for odds if the rain comes. He meets Green Supreme relatively 1kg better off than when the two met last with Green Supreme winning by 1 length, is that enough to make this interesting?
It has been about 18 months since Atom Cat won his last race. However he might be worth considering if the conditions take a turn down. He enjoys Ellerslie, has a cosy barrier 4th draw, and has a decent 2nd up record. Actually most of Atom Cat's victories have come early in campaigns, so the resuming 4th possibly showed some promise as it relates to this race. He is carrying 53.5kg in this field which is a very significant light weight.
Of the Richard Collett trained runners I am leaning towards Riotous, he has a weight advantage over his stablemate Alegrio and is drawn better to really compete. Both have similar Ellerslie records, and I imagine that if it is wet the weight advantage should equalise them. I really enjoyed the win here last start, I would stay away if wet, but 52kg compares well to the second here during Auckland Cup week.
Steel Giant is a pretty good horse to only carry 52kg here. A course and distance win on a rain effected track was decent but the field was ripped up with scratchings that day. I wouldn't consider him on a wet track, the draw is a put off and at weights Justanexcuse is effectively dropping the same amount after beating him soundly last start.
Sum Up has been pretty good this season. 1600m is probably short of his best distance, but at weight on a wet track might give some value. This would be by far the biggest win of his career, but he has gone close in decent races and was not a disgrace at Group 1 level. He likes it right handed and recent performances at Ellerslie have shown merit.
Jetset Lad was another I liked, but was put off by the draw. 1600m should really suit, he can factor, but I cant see him winning.
When it comes down to making picks I really think it will depend on how fit Jimmy Choux is and how he will carry that big weight. I think he is better here than Veyron because of Veyron's draw, the next biggest threat is Green Supreme (considering I think he is more suited than Fleur de Lune), I am simply not sure how to compare these two runners. Overall record there is no comparison, at the same weight I would like Jimmy all day. In regard to Green Supreme he has still not really faced a challenge on this level, his next biggest challenge was the Wellington Cup recently, before this it was at 3rd at Group 1 level at age 3, although he has been winning fairly handily this prep, the field he will face on Saturday is very strong. He beat a number of runners here last start, but I still feel like despite the Jimmy Choux question marks I have to look his way in this race, he has been there before and is a proven commodity.
First - Jimmy Choux
Second - Green Supreme
Third - Veyron - He is in great form and loves Ellerslie
Fourth - Atom Cat - I like him more if the rain comes.
Thursday, 5 April 2012
Are you ready for New Zealand's Weirdest Group 1
This Easter sees Group 1 Racing coming from New Zealand. No, it is not the Easter Handicap, that is the week after Easter for some inexplicable reason. We are going to be looking at Te Aroha for their sole Group 1 race the New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes.
This race is strange, so strap in. This is the only Fillies and Mares specific Group 1 race for those older that 3YO, and strange things occur.
Barinka won this race last year beating Smoulder and Fleur de Lune who both line up again on Saturday. That win was her first and only Group 1 success, she won paying somewhere in the $18 region. She was the most recent in a long line of somewhat unexpected winners of this race. Strange things happen, so don't be afraid to go a bit loose in your selections. Particularly when both those place getter's last year paid over $7. Fixed odds place betting could get a hammering this weekend.
This race features potential up-and-coming mares with bright futures ahead of them, it features older campaigners seeking a last shot at Group 1 success to maybe improve their value as a Broodmare, and other runners who are just in it because it is there.
Need more proof that it is a strange one, going back to 2010 we see another longer shot winner in Juice. She paid $17.60, she was also ridden by Hayden Tinsley, it was also her only Group 1 success. Culminate and Obsession were more favoured as they rounded out the Tirfecta.
Dane Juila was second favourite when breaking this longshot trend in 2009, she beat the favourite. It was her only Group 1 win in New Zealand and only her second overall.
2008 was a normal year for the Breeders Stakes, Special Mission won for James McDonald paying $17.30. Culminate ran her first second and Keepa Cruisin ran for third. You will be surprised to discover this was her only Group 1 win, with her form tailing off following this result starting with an 11th in the Easter Handicap a few weeks later.
In 2007 a mare by the name of Captivate won this race. She was loved by the punters (relatively) paying a only $15.60 for Sam Spratt.
Arlingtonboulevard broke away with Jason Waddell on board in 2006 to claim that years version of the Breeders Stakes, fortunately Salsa ran second and would have paid $19.5 for the win, so successful punters had to accept a small return of $14.70 for their efforts.
You will not believe what Rockabubble paid winning in 2005 when the race was held in March, only $8, making her the first of only two sub $10 winners in the past 7 running's of this race. She finished 18th and 17th respectively in her next two attempts at Group 1 level.
2004 saw Surprize Surprize paying $11.85 despite finishing second in this race in 2003.
The horse who beat Surprize Surprize was called Zirna and paid $8.95 when winning, Surprize Surprize paid a big $6.30 for the place which was not even as large as third placed Rodrigo Rose who paid $7.35 for her place, making that year another sizable trifecta.
Whatever you do, do not back this weekends winner to go the Breeders/Easter Handicap double, the 2002 Breeders Stakes winner finished 14th in the Easter Handicap is another of many not to perform in this next Group 1. Saint Cecile paid $13 winning in 2002. Remember I have not mentioned one winning favourite in the past 9 years of this race. This was actually Saint Cecile's second win in this race as the 2002 victory backed up her 2001 victory (and she still paid $13), for the record in 2001 she was paying, $8.95 and the race was only at Group 2 level that year.
Where does that leave us this year, in the past 10 years we have seen no favourites win, $5.60 (Dane Julia) was the shortest priced winner, only three other horses have won and paid under $10 in the past 10 outings. To give you an idea, in all of the Group 1 races so far this year, Distil, Artistic and Choice Bro are the only winners who paid more that $10, two of those are the most recent two Group 1's of the year. We have seen 5 winners paying $14.70 or more throughout the years (would have loved to round up to $15 then), that is half of the winners. There has been 1 back to back winner (not counting Hayden Tinsley riding back to back winners), and Culiminate has run second twice, also Surprize Surprize ran second and went one better the following year. The only 3YO Filly to win was Special Mission, there have been 6 4YO's to win in the last 10 years, 3 6YO's and the only 5YO was Saint Cecile winning her second time.
So who are the likely candidates to continue this strange run of winners this year? Who fits the profile we have just described? Actually just about all of them.
There are four runners paying less than $10 (Fleur de Lune, Lady Kipling, Say No More, and Xanadu), keep one handy in your multiples as that seems to be the trend).
Other than the emergencies there are six runners paying in excess of $20 (Platinum Princess, Do Ri Mi, No Excuse Maggie, Lady Chaparral, Jeu de Cartes, Acapela).
That leaves six runners in the sweet spot, Postmans Daughter ($12, seems pretty good value), Fazzle ($14), Dating ($14), Floria ($10), Villifye ($10), Smoulder ($16).
What are my selections based on absolutely no analysis other than the last 10 events?
Winner - Smoulder ($16) - in the sweet spot, also doubles as the horse who performed well in this race a year ago.
Second - Lady Kipling ($7.50) - shorter odds runner to go close
Third - Postmans Daughter ($12) - value runner rounding out the trifecta.
Fourth - Fleur de Lune ($6) - the favourite
Maybe it is better to look at this race with a bit more analysis, basically you can expect strange things to happen because there are a lot of chances, we have a big field, and there is not really a clear cut favourite. With the wet forecast for the weekend I am anticipating we will at least see a slow track.(Only the first four are listed in specific order)
Long Shot First Four Contenders
#7 Do Ra Mi (14) $31 & $9 - Hard to know what the best indication of form is, she has not seen a good track since September last year, it is unlikely she will see one this weekend either.
#13 Lady Chaparral (6) $26 & $8 - Not too many have beaten Mufhasa this season, she is one of them. Her form since has not been the strongest, however she has gone well in Te Aroha, her record at Tauranga was likely a factor in the victory over Mufhasa, but this looks too tough.
#14 Jeu de Cartes (21) $21 & $6.50 - The draw is tough on this track, she does seem to go well on rain effected tracks, she has stepped up in quality over her last few and just has not quite reached this level.
#15 Acapela (1) $21 & $6.50 - Good to see Jason Collett back riding. On paper this is a chance, decent form, well drawn, decent record in the wet, has been beginning to step up in quality. I just think the set weight of 57kg will hurt her chances and I like others more.
A first four chance
#12 No Excuse Maggie (7) $33 & $10 - I like this John Barry runner, she was great throughout the winter last prep. She has not really come back in the same form, but she is hard to rule out. She won 4th, 6th and 9th up last prep (4th up on Saturday), her first 3 starts leading into that were 5th, 8th and 7th, this is a much tougher fourth start. Record over 1600m and on wet tracks is good.
#10 Villifye (16) $10 & $3.40 - Looked great last start winning, will have to deal with a big increase in weight in this one, she will handle the rain and looked like an improving mare, but I like the look of others more.
#9 Say No More (20) $7.50 & $2.60 - Say no more is a group one winner this season. She got a sweet draw and trip on that occasion carrying only 52kg. This looks tougher with 57kgs to carry and a wide draw to deal with.
#2 Platinum Princess (12) $31 & $9 - She won the Coupland's Bakeries Mile last year and has a great 1600m record, she has just not really gone on since then in races carrying a set weight. Possibly the draw has not been great in a few of these, and this is similar to the race she won on New Year's day at Ellerslie.
Hard to leave out
#3 Fazzle (15) $14 & $4.50 - That last 200m scares me, she might have a lot of work to do from the draw. She has really come on well over 1400m, and if you knew she would get a decent trip she might be hard to avoid, but I think she will need some luck.
#6 Floria (11) $10 & $3.40 - This just looks like a step up, she will have to carry more weight and possibly deal with a wet track. She is consistent and hard to completely ignore.
#17 Xanadu (9) $7 & $2.50 - I will always have another look at a 3YO in this type of race with the weight allowance. I have been both impressed and disappointed with this filly this year. I think this field is similar to Ellerslie on Boxing Day, yes there are older horses, but there is enough class to make this tough on her.
#4 Dating (4) $14 & $4.50 - The more I looked at her the more I liked her chances. She is a tough omission and from the draw I thought she looked a great chance. I have left her out because she is so inconsistent. When she won that F&M race back in October it looked like she would have a great season, she has just been too up and down to take.
First Four
Fourth - #5 Fleur de Lune (3) $6 & 2 - A lot to like, can she break the favourtie jinx? Well drawn and seems to be back close to her best.
Third - #1 Postmans Daughter (10) $12 & $4 - A strong competitor, consistent and racing in tougher company. Seems to go back and forth in distance, 1600m two starts in a row carrying basically what she carried for second in handicap conditions last start.
Second - #8 Lady Kipling (8) $7.50 & $2.60 - Has had a great year competing gamely in much tougher races. 1600m should suit her, I do have a right handed concern, but she has not been too bad recently.
First - #11 Smoulder (5) $16 & $5 - To take her you need to completely forgive the Tauranga effort, she was favourite, she had a bad day. She has been very good the rest of the year, she possibly has not won as many races as you would like, but she has been consistent. She can bounce back from a good draw here. She fits a lot of the history of this race in recent years.
This race is strange, so strap in. This is the only Fillies and Mares specific Group 1 race for those older that 3YO, and strange things occur.
Barinka won this race last year beating Smoulder and Fleur de Lune who both line up again on Saturday. That win was her first and only Group 1 success, she won paying somewhere in the $18 region. She was the most recent in a long line of somewhat unexpected winners of this race. Strange things happen, so don't be afraid to go a bit loose in your selections. Particularly when both those place getter's last year paid over $7. Fixed odds place betting could get a hammering this weekend.
This race features potential up-and-coming mares with bright futures ahead of them, it features older campaigners seeking a last shot at Group 1 success to maybe improve their value as a Broodmare, and other runners who are just in it because it is there.
Need more proof that it is a strange one, going back to 2010 we see another longer shot winner in Juice. She paid $17.60, she was also ridden by Hayden Tinsley, it was also her only Group 1 success. Culminate and Obsession were more favoured as they rounded out the Tirfecta.
Dane Juila was second favourite when breaking this longshot trend in 2009, she beat the favourite. It was her only Group 1 win in New Zealand and only her second overall.
2008 was a normal year for the Breeders Stakes, Special Mission won for James McDonald paying $17.30. Culminate ran her first second and Keepa Cruisin ran for third. You will be surprised to discover this was her only Group 1 win, with her form tailing off following this result starting with an 11th in the Easter Handicap a few weeks later.
In 2007 a mare by the name of Captivate won this race. She was loved by the punters (relatively) paying a only $15.60 for Sam Spratt.
Arlingtonboulevard broke away with Jason Waddell on board in 2006 to claim that years version of the Breeders Stakes, fortunately Salsa ran second and would have paid $19.5 for the win, so successful punters had to accept a small return of $14.70 for their efforts.
You will not believe what Rockabubble paid winning in 2005 when the race was held in March, only $8, making her the first of only two sub $10 winners in the past 7 running's of this race. She finished 18th and 17th respectively in her next two attempts at Group 1 level.
2004 saw Surprize Surprize paying $11.85 despite finishing second in this race in 2003.
The horse who beat Surprize Surprize was called Zirna and paid $8.95 when winning, Surprize Surprize paid a big $6.30 for the place which was not even as large as third placed Rodrigo Rose who paid $7.35 for her place, making that year another sizable trifecta.
Whatever you do, do not back this weekends winner to go the Breeders/Easter Handicap double, the 2002 Breeders Stakes winner finished 14th in the Easter Handicap is another of many not to perform in this next Group 1. Saint Cecile paid $13 winning in 2002. Remember I have not mentioned one winning favourite in the past 9 years of this race. This was actually Saint Cecile's second win in this race as the 2002 victory backed up her 2001 victory (and she still paid $13), for the record in 2001 she was paying, $8.95 and the race was only at Group 2 level that year.
Where does that leave us this year, in the past 10 years we have seen no favourites win, $5.60 (Dane Julia) was the shortest priced winner, only three other horses have won and paid under $10 in the past 10 outings. To give you an idea, in all of the Group 1 races so far this year, Distil, Artistic and Choice Bro are the only winners who paid more that $10, two of those are the most recent two Group 1's of the year. We have seen 5 winners paying $14.70 or more throughout the years (would have loved to round up to $15 then), that is half of the winners. There has been 1 back to back winner (not counting Hayden Tinsley riding back to back winners), and Culiminate has run second twice, also Surprize Surprize ran second and went one better the following year. The only 3YO Filly to win was Special Mission, there have been 6 4YO's to win in the last 10 years, 3 6YO's and the only 5YO was Saint Cecile winning her second time.
So who are the likely candidates to continue this strange run of winners this year? Who fits the profile we have just described? Actually just about all of them.
There are four runners paying less than $10 (Fleur de Lune, Lady Kipling, Say No More, and Xanadu), keep one handy in your multiples as that seems to be the trend).
Other than the emergencies there are six runners paying in excess of $20 (Platinum Princess, Do Ri Mi, No Excuse Maggie, Lady Chaparral, Jeu de Cartes, Acapela).
That leaves six runners in the sweet spot, Postmans Daughter ($12, seems pretty good value), Fazzle ($14), Dating ($14), Floria ($10), Villifye ($10), Smoulder ($16).
What are my selections based on absolutely no analysis other than the last 10 events?
Winner - Smoulder ($16) - in the sweet spot, also doubles as the horse who performed well in this race a year ago.
Second - Lady Kipling ($7.50) - shorter odds runner to go close
Third - Postmans Daughter ($12) - value runner rounding out the trifecta.
Fourth - Fleur de Lune ($6) - the favourite
Maybe it is better to look at this race with a bit more analysis, basically you can expect strange things to happen because there are a lot of chances, we have a big field, and there is not really a clear cut favourite. With the wet forecast for the weekend I am anticipating we will at least see a slow track.(Only the first four are listed in specific order)
Long Shot First Four Contenders
#7 Do Ra Mi (14) $31 & $9 - Hard to know what the best indication of form is, she has not seen a good track since September last year, it is unlikely she will see one this weekend either.
#13 Lady Chaparral (6) $26 & $8 - Not too many have beaten Mufhasa this season, she is one of them. Her form since has not been the strongest, however she has gone well in Te Aroha, her record at Tauranga was likely a factor in the victory over Mufhasa, but this looks too tough.
#14 Jeu de Cartes (21) $21 & $6.50 - The draw is tough on this track, she does seem to go well on rain effected tracks, she has stepped up in quality over her last few and just has not quite reached this level.
#15 Acapela (1) $21 & $6.50 - Good to see Jason Collett back riding. On paper this is a chance, decent form, well drawn, decent record in the wet, has been beginning to step up in quality. I just think the set weight of 57kg will hurt her chances and I like others more.
A first four chance
#12 No Excuse Maggie (7) $33 & $10 - I like this John Barry runner, she was great throughout the winter last prep. She has not really come back in the same form, but she is hard to rule out. She won 4th, 6th and 9th up last prep (4th up on Saturday), her first 3 starts leading into that were 5th, 8th and 7th, this is a much tougher fourth start. Record over 1600m and on wet tracks is good.
#10 Villifye (16) $10 & $3.40 - Looked great last start winning, will have to deal with a big increase in weight in this one, she will handle the rain and looked like an improving mare, but I like the look of others more.
#9 Say No More (20) $7.50 & $2.60 - Say no more is a group one winner this season. She got a sweet draw and trip on that occasion carrying only 52kg. This looks tougher with 57kgs to carry and a wide draw to deal with.
#2 Platinum Princess (12) $31 & $9 - She won the Coupland's Bakeries Mile last year and has a great 1600m record, she has just not really gone on since then in races carrying a set weight. Possibly the draw has not been great in a few of these, and this is similar to the race she won on New Year's day at Ellerslie.
Hard to leave out
#3 Fazzle (15) $14 & $4.50 - That last 200m scares me, she might have a lot of work to do from the draw. She has really come on well over 1400m, and if you knew she would get a decent trip she might be hard to avoid, but I think she will need some luck.
#6 Floria (11) $10 & $3.40 - This just looks like a step up, she will have to carry more weight and possibly deal with a wet track. She is consistent and hard to completely ignore.
#17 Xanadu (9) $7 & $2.50 - I will always have another look at a 3YO in this type of race with the weight allowance. I have been both impressed and disappointed with this filly this year. I think this field is similar to Ellerslie on Boxing Day, yes there are older horses, but there is enough class to make this tough on her.
#4 Dating (4) $14 & $4.50 - The more I looked at her the more I liked her chances. She is a tough omission and from the draw I thought she looked a great chance. I have left her out because she is so inconsistent. When she won that F&M race back in October it looked like she would have a great season, she has just been too up and down to take.
First Four
Fourth - #5 Fleur de Lune (3) $6 & 2 - A lot to like, can she break the favourtie jinx? Well drawn and seems to be back close to her best.
Third - #1 Postmans Daughter (10) $12 & $4 - A strong competitor, consistent and racing in tougher company. Seems to go back and forth in distance, 1600m two starts in a row carrying basically what she carried for second in handicap conditions last start.
Second - #8 Lady Kipling (8) $7.50 & $2.60 - Has had a great year competing gamely in much tougher races. 1600m should suit her, I do have a right handed concern, but she has not been too bad recently.
First - #11 Smoulder (5) $16 & $5 - To take her you need to completely forgive the Tauranga effort, she was favourite, she had a bad day. She has been very good the rest of the year, she possibly has not won as many races as you would like, but she has been consistent. She can bounce back from a good draw here. She fits a lot of the history of this race in recent years.
Friday, 30 March 2012
What has changed since the Daimond Stakes?
What has happened in between the 2YO's we will see in the Group 1 Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes this season?
-On New Years Day, in the Eclipse Stakes, of runners competing in the Oaks Stud Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes the finishing order was Warhorse, Irish Rebel, Magic Shaft.
- Moving forward to January 21st in Wellington, the Little Avondale Stud Wakefield Challenge Stakes, we saw a finishing order of Irish Rebel, Liberating.
-The Karaka Million was run on the 29th of January, the finishing order was Warhorse, Choice Bro, Mai Guru.
- Moving into February the 2YO division saw Choice Bro beat Lumiere Blue and Liberating in Taranaki in the Platinum Homes 2YO Classic.
- A week later was a big day at Matamata, we first saw the Reid and Harrision Slipper and watched Magic Shaft better Irish Rebel and Travino, which was the first time we saw a change in one of the major 2YO features since New Years Day. Later that day in the J Swap Contractors Matamata Breeders Stakes we saw them finish Rollout the Carpet, Liberating, Lady de Chine.
- Then in the seasons first 2YO Group 1 we the Haunui Farm Diamond Stakes at Ellerslie, they crossed the line Rollout the Carpet, Warhorse, Soriano, Travino, Choice Bro, and Mai Guru. Warhorse and Rollout the Carpet were reversed in the judges room, and there are question marks as to how her performance may have effected other runners, but it is clear looking at the Two year olds this year there have not been a lot of major shakeups (in these major races at least).
The question is will this change this weekend? The big difference is that they will be competing over 1400m.
Lets look at what we have seen over these seven races to date with the eleven horses who have competed against each other to try to create a ranking. This ranking wont take into account performance or magnitude of the race, simply a Rock, Paper, Scissors type breakdown.
The above table shows the evolution over time of who beat who and by roughly how much. The major change was in the Diamond Stakes because Choice Bro finished well below expectations and Travino finished much closer, that indicates to me that we are in for a close race.
What can explain these significant changes?
Travino was great before Christmas, if those results were taken into account he probably would have begun this table in a higher position, he might be getting fitter, and had claims he was interfered with in that last race.
Choice Bro's best result in the 2YO classic was left handed, the race Daimond Stakes was at Ellerslie Right Handed, he finished about 2.5 lengths behind Warhorse, about an additional length from the Karaka Million, not majorly significant, but does indicate some course and distance regression relative to Warhorse, particularly when you consider that Mai Guru was about 2.5 lengths behind in both races.
Who has excuses from that race?
Mai Guru raced about four wide for most of the event. If we really look at that finish, if not for the fright Rollout the Carpet would have probably won that race. Choice Bro was coming from deep and really never a chance but did make up ground. Warhorse was clearly effected by Rollout the Carpet, Mai Guru was effected by Warhorse, and Travino was effected by Mai Guru. Warhorse had continued interference, Travino and Mai Guru cut inside and Mai Guru was squeezed between Travino and Soriano.
What is different about this weekend's race?
It is 1400m, who might that help?
Rollout the Carpet, Warhorse, Soriano, Travino and Choice Bro all seemed to run out the 1200m very well, 1400m should suit. Magic Shaft looked suited, Irish Rebel could use more ground (Guineas winner in the Spring?).
The Fix is in!
We have the addition of Fix into the mix. What can we expect from this winner of two from two. She got up late to win her maiden over 1000m and then really used the extra 100m well to smash them at Ellerslie. 1400m should suit, she is a major player here.
Who might be better suited going Left Handed?
I think it is fair to include Choice Bro in here as a horse may improve going left, only because of the victory over Ockham's Razor following Ockham's Razors Karaka Million victory. We are generally looking at a small sample size but Warhorse's only "failure" was left handed at Te Rapa, Mai Guru looked good left and has not done as well right (in much tougher races), Rollout the Carpet has had one run right and we saw what happened (although it looked like a fright more than anything), Liberating best work has been left. It does not really look like there is too much to read into these results.
Will anyone benefit from the Awapuni Location?
Lady de Chine is trained at Awapuni, Liberating and Lumiere Blue are others with less distance to travel. Irish Rebel and Choice Bro are the only ones to run a race on the track, the finished first and second in the same race back in December.
Has any performance been effected negatively or positively by track conditions? (right now the track is Dead 4, there is no significant rain forecast).
You can make a case this will be the best track Travino has ran on since his return from Australia. Lumiere Blue was 9th of 9th on a track rated 4, if it improves so does his record. Liberating seems to improve with a bit more moisture around. Lady de Chine went very well on good tracks before the run in the Matamata Breeders Stakes which was Dead.
Any Barrier Draw Concerns?
Warhorse and Choice Bro should get good runs to suit with a lot of runners outside them battling for the lead. A few potential leaders, Irish Rebel (4) , Magic Shaft (7), possibly Mai Guru (1), Rollout the Carpet (6), Fix (9). I think Fix may be suited to get across outside the leader where he has been in other races, however there is definitely a chance the likes of Magic Shaft and Fix can get caught wide if too many move forward. Soriano might be unlucky to be out in 11. Liberating performed well leading last time from a good draw, has tended to go back without much success when drawn wider so 12 is unlucky.
Any odds stand out?
Choice Bro, Left handed, conditions will suit, raced on the track, may be better with the shorter gap between races. $14 is value.
Travino, may get better conditions, unlucky last time, winner on the track. $9 seems fair.
Lumiere Blue, should run into decent conditions, has performed well against these runners in the past, pretty consistent and probably a better chance than $26.
Fix is at $12, there are a few unknowns for her, so $12 is fair, but could be the surprise package.
Lady de Chine is probably a better chance than $26, but there are a lot to like more.
How do I see them finishing?
First - Rollout the Carpet - Should already have a Group 1 to her credit
Second - Choice Bro - Give the benefit of the doubt, I think we see a better performance
Third - Irish Rebel - Matamata breeders finish was strong, an improvement from the Wellington run, should be set for this.
Fourth - Travino - Went back and forth between Warhorse and Magic Shaft before realising that things may be aligning for a strong Travino performance here.
I am very unsure about fourth, if you are having a first four try to go as wide as possible.
To go back to the question at the top, has much changed since the Diamond Stakes? Clearly I think so.
-On New Years Day, in the Eclipse Stakes, of runners competing in the Oaks Stud Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes the finishing order was Warhorse, Irish Rebel, Magic Shaft.
- Moving forward to January 21st in Wellington, the Little Avondale Stud Wakefield Challenge Stakes, we saw a finishing order of Irish Rebel, Liberating.
-The Karaka Million was run on the 29th of January, the finishing order was Warhorse, Choice Bro, Mai Guru.
- Moving into February the 2YO division saw Choice Bro beat Lumiere Blue and Liberating in Taranaki in the Platinum Homes 2YO Classic.
- A week later was a big day at Matamata, we first saw the Reid and Harrision Slipper and watched Magic Shaft better Irish Rebel and Travino, which was the first time we saw a change in one of the major 2YO features since New Years Day. Later that day in the J Swap Contractors Matamata Breeders Stakes we saw them finish Rollout the Carpet, Liberating, Lady de Chine.
- Then in the seasons first 2YO Group 1 we the Haunui Farm Diamond Stakes at Ellerslie, they crossed the line Rollout the Carpet, Warhorse, Soriano, Travino, Choice Bro, and Mai Guru. Warhorse and Rollout the Carpet were reversed in the judges room, and there are question marks as to how her performance may have effected other runners, but it is clear looking at the Two year olds this year there have not been a lot of major shakeups (in these major races at least).
The question is will this change this weekend? The big difference is that they will be competing over 1400m.
Lets look at what we have seen over these seven races to date with the eleven horses who have competed against each other to try to create a ranking. This ranking wont take into account performance or magnitude of the race, simply a Rock, Paper, Scissors type breakdown.
The above table shows the evolution over time of who beat who and by roughly how much. The major change was in the Diamond Stakes because Choice Bro finished well below expectations and Travino finished much closer, that indicates to me that we are in for a close race.
What can explain these significant changes?
Travino was great before Christmas, if those results were taken into account he probably would have begun this table in a higher position, he might be getting fitter, and had claims he was interfered with in that last race.
Choice Bro's best result in the 2YO classic was left handed, the race Daimond Stakes was at Ellerslie Right Handed, he finished about 2.5 lengths behind Warhorse, about an additional length from the Karaka Million, not majorly significant, but does indicate some course and distance regression relative to Warhorse, particularly when you consider that Mai Guru was about 2.5 lengths behind in both races.
Who has excuses from that race?
Mai Guru raced about four wide for most of the event. If we really look at that finish, if not for the fright Rollout the Carpet would have probably won that race. Choice Bro was coming from deep and really never a chance but did make up ground. Warhorse was clearly effected by Rollout the Carpet, Mai Guru was effected by Warhorse, and Travino was effected by Mai Guru. Warhorse had continued interference, Travino and Mai Guru cut inside and Mai Guru was squeezed between Travino and Soriano.
What is different about this weekend's race?
It is 1400m, who might that help?
Rollout the Carpet, Warhorse, Soriano, Travino and Choice Bro all seemed to run out the 1200m very well, 1400m should suit. Magic Shaft looked suited, Irish Rebel could use more ground (Guineas winner in the Spring?).
The Fix is in!
We have the addition of Fix into the mix. What can we expect from this winner of two from two. She got up late to win her maiden over 1000m and then really used the extra 100m well to smash them at Ellerslie. 1400m should suit, she is a major player here.
Who might be better suited going Left Handed?
I think it is fair to include Choice Bro in here as a horse may improve going left, only because of the victory over Ockham's Razor following Ockham's Razors Karaka Million victory. We are generally looking at a small sample size but Warhorse's only "failure" was left handed at Te Rapa, Mai Guru looked good left and has not done as well right (in much tougher races), Rollout the Carpet has had one run right and we saw what happened (although it looked like a fright more than anything), Liberating best work has been left. It does not really look like there is too much to read into these results.
Will anyone benefit from the Awapuni Location?
Lady de Chine is trained at Awapuni, Liberating and Lumiere Blue are others with less distance to travel. Irish Rebel and Choice Bro are the only ones to run a race on the track, the finished first and second in the same race back in December.
Has any performance been effected negatively or positively by track conditions? (right now the track is Dead 4, there is no significant rain forecast).
You can make a case this will be the best track Travino has ran on since his return from Australia. Lumiere Blue was 9th of 9th on a track rated 4, if it improves so does his record. Liberating seems to improve with a bit more moisture around. Lady de Chine went very well on good tracks before the run in the Matamata Breeders Stakes which was Dead.
Any Barrier Draw Concerns?
Warhorse and Choice Bro should get good runs to suit with a lot of runners outside them battling for the lead. A few potential leaders, Irish Rebel (4) , Magic Shaft (7), possibly Mai Guru (1), Rollout the Carpet (6), Fix (9). I think Fix may be suited to get across outside the leader where he has been in other races, however there is definitely a chance the likes of Magic Shaft and Fix can get caught wide if too many move forward. Soriano might be unlucky to be out in 11. Liberating performed well leading last time from a good draw, has tended to go back without much success when drawn wider so 12 is unlucky.
Any odds stand out?
Choice Bro, Left handed, conditions will suit, raced on the track, may be better with the shorter gap between races. $14 is value.
Travino, may get better conditions, unlucky last time, winner on the track. $9 seems fair.
Lumiere Blue, should run into decent conditions, has performed well against these runners in the past, pretty consistent and probably a better chance than $26.
Fix is at $12, there are a few unknowns for her, so $12 is fair, but could be the surprise package.
Lady de Chine is probably a better chance than $26, but there are a lot to like more.
How do I see them finishing?
First - Rollout the Carpet - Should already have a Group 1 to her credit
Second - Choice Bro - Give the benefit of the doubt, I think we see a better performance
Third - Irish Rebel - Matamata breeders finish was strong, an improvement from the Wellington run, should be set for this.
Fourth - Travino - Went back and forth between Warhorse and Magic Shaft before realising that things may be aligning for a strong Travino performance here.
I am very unsure about fourth, if you are having a first four try to go as wide as possible.
To go back to the question at the top, has much changed since the Diamond Stakes? Clearly I think so.
Tuesday, 27 March 2012
Tuesday Racing, Why not?
I know that Monday and Tuesday racing is a somewhat controversial topic, I am not here to comment on the logistics or point of this, nor am I informed enough on the reasons for and against. What I am is bored. I never pay much attention to mid week racing, I simply don't have the time, and if I am not going to be home and watching it then I tend not to really bet on it. The good thing about the NZ Racing Website is that if you need to watch mid week racing you can watch all of the races in 20 minutes, if you need to study form for a weekend race it is all right there for you for free.
Today I am throwing myself into Tuesday racing, having a look at the runners and making some selections.
Race 1 - 2000m Maiden - Small field of seven runners, I notice two are paying 20-1 and 30-1 which all but makes this a 5 horse race (in the eyes of the bookies at least), if there were eight runners then maybe one of those at that level is worth a place bet flyer with fixed odds place betting available.
My Picks
First - 4 - Makers Mark - I always like horses coming back from tougher company regardless of the result.
Second - 3 - Prospero - Performed better 2nd up on a dead track, will a slow track suit?
Third - 2 - Lucky Charm - Best performance last start C&D, should run on.
Fourth - 8 - Double Delight - Why not? yet to do anything, but this is only beating three runners, also is another who has raced against better company.
Race 2 - 1600m Maiden - Interesting race with a few runners claiming with apprentice Jockeys where they have not in the past. Also this is a decent sized field with a handful of experienced runners. My theory of runners back in "grade" will be tested today. I also have another theory about not liking runners going back in distance when they are searching for a win.
My Picks
First - 10 - Shan's Joy - Love the claim, seems to get better with racing, 1600m suits, and handles all tracks.
Second - 4 - Ira Bean - This is where my theories intersect. I do like the claim, hopefully she will go well fresh.
Third - 9 - Oneworld Onedream - Looks like a big chance based from the two starts to date.
Fourth - 1 - Just Got Home - Is getting closer, more distance seemed to suit last start.
Race 3 - 1400m Rating 75 - Some fairly accomplished rating 75 horses here..
My Picky
First - 1- Czechout Girl - Great name. Recent winner. Claiming will help chances, and she has gone well on slow tracks.
Second - 5 - Sateka - In form, handles all tracks and has won twice in Matamata.
Third - 7 - Savvy Dancer - Fresh is a state which suits, he worked his way up to longer last prep but still has performed well over 1400m and early in prep.
Fourth - 4 - Snagglepuss - Great 1400m distance record, not in the best form but tends to get a bit better with racing.
Race 4 - 1200m 3YOF Maiden - I always like 3YO races at this level at this point in the season. You never know if you are going to see a Scarlett Lady type runner, maybe a runner who will come on as at 4YO, maybe you are looking at a horse who's connections had hopes she would have been running in a Guineas or Oaks but the timing simply didn't work out. There are a lot of possible story lines in play. It is interesting looking back at our top horses, yes some were great at 3YO, but the late bloomers are interesting, often they raced in this type of race unsuccessfully at age three.
My Picks
First - 10 - Pearle Lustre - had placed in trials and was well supported first up. Should do better here with luck.
Second - 14 - Zabinella - Has only one race start to date at age two, was very well backed. That was following a trial win. Following another trial win is now having her first 3YO start. Hope she does better.
Third - 2 - La Stellina - Close in what looked to be a similar race.
Fourth - 3 - Seven Fifty - Claiming down to 53.5kg. Technically her third 3YO start. Her career form to date looks like she is another who has had a couple of starts but been put away to come back at a better time. Maybe this is the time she can be unleashed.
Race 5 - 1200m Maiden - Lots of runners having their first start here, really makes it quite open, hard to know what to expect from a few of these runners, tough start to the Quaddie.
My Picks
First - 14 - Veronica Hall - Good course and distance record, beaten favourite, claiming.
Second - 1 - Distance suits and should not have an issue with the slow track, back from a strong race last start.
Third - 5 - The final round - Why not? seems to have trialed well.
Fourth - 3 - Isdabicky - Handful of trials placing recently.
Race 6 - 1600m Racing 65m - Interesting race for three reasons, firstly there is a number of runners back to this level after racing for higher stakes recently, secondly there is a few either dropping back in distance or possibly working their way up to more distance, and thirdly there are several who have not really performed on rain effected tracks.
My Picks
First - 2 - Are you Devious - Without the claim I would be less confident, this is easier than recent races but the slow track performance two starts back is a concern.
Second - 4 - Ransoms Gold - Good performances recently, amongst the favourites again.
Third - 7 - Speedy Rocket - Should suit the conditions, 1600m should see improvement, has been racing for higher stakes at R65 level.
Fourth - 3 - Lovetohaveit - Winner previously at Ellerslie, taking a big claim while taking on a level which is more suitable.
Race 7 - 1200m Rating 65 - Is it just me or do we have some very good apprentice Jockeys around? I really like a number of them and feel very comfortable betting on them.
My Picks
First - 6 - Lady Krovanh - Really good 3rd over 2100m to the eventual derby winner. Freshened. Should go well here.
Second - 12 - Tale to Tell - Was impressed with the maiden victory last start.
Third - 4 - Secret Whisper - Ran in the Guineas last start, 1200m should suit fresh up.
Fourth - 17 - Vuela - Value, concern is track and strong competition.
Race 8 - 1400m Maiden - Interesting race, a lot of possibilities, very few I feel are certain to perform.
My Picks
First - 6 - My Blossom Lady - If you forget the last start then you feel the most confident about her.
Second - 8 - Morgan Le Fay - Looked to have that strong finish to suit 1400m
Third - 2 - Ribbony Rose - Slow track concerns, but merit in the last two starts.
Fourth - 3 - Scarlet Chaparral - Place chance like so many in this race.
Today I am throwing myself into Tuesday racing, having a look at the runners and making some selections.
Race 1 - 2000m Maiden - Small field of seven runners, I notice two are paying 20-1 and 30-1 which all but makes this a 5 horse race (in the eyes of the bookies at least), if there were eight runners then maybe one of those at that level is worth a place bet flyer with fixed odds place betting available.
My Picks
First - 4 - Makers Mark - I always like horses coming back from tougher company regardless of the result.
Second - 3 - Prospero - Performed better 2nd up on a dead track, will a slow track suit?
Third - 2 - Lucky Charm - Best performance last start C&D, should run on.
Fourth - 8 - Double Delight - Why not? yet to do anything, but this is only beating three runners, also is another who has raced against better company.
Race 2 - 1600m Maiden - Interesting race with a few runners claiming with apprentice Jockeys where they have not in the past. Also this is a decent sized field with a handful of experienced runners. My theory of runners back in "grade" will be tested today. I also have another theory about not liking runners going back in distance when they are searching for a win.
My Picks
First - 10 - Shan's Joy - Love the claim, seems to get better with racing, 1600m suits, and handles all tracks.
Second - 4 - Ira Bean - This is where my theories intersect. I do like the claim, hopefully she will go well fresh.
Third - 9 - Oneworld Onedream - Looks like a big chance based from the two starts to date.
Fourth - 1 - Just Got Home - Is getting closer, more distance seemed to suit last start.
Race 3 - 1400m Rating 75 - Some fairly accomplished rating 75 horses here..
My Picky
First - 1- Czechout Girl - Great name. Recent winner. Claiming will help chances, and she has gone well on slow tracks.
Second - 5 - Sateka - In form, handles all tracks and has won twice in Matamata.
Third - 7 - Savvy Dancer - Fresh is a state which suits, he worked his way up to longer last prep but still has performed well over 1400m and early in prep.
Fourth - 4 - Snagglepuss - Great 1400m distance record, not in the best form but tends to get a bit better with racing.
Race 4 - 1200m 3YOF Maiden - I always like 3YO races at this level at this point in the season. You never know if you are going to see a Scarlett Lady type runner, maybe a runner who will come on as at 4YO, maybe you are looking at a horse who's connections had hopes she would have been running in a Guineas or Oaks but the timing simply didn't work out. There are a lot of possible story lines in play. It is interesting looking back at our top horses, yes some were great at 3YO, but the late bloomers are interesting, often they raced in this type of race unsuccessfully at age three.
My Picks
First - 10 - Pearle Lustre - had placed in trials and was well supported first up. Should do better here with luck.
Second - 14 - Zabinella - Has only one race start to date at age two, was very well backed. That was following a trial win. Following another trial win is now having her first 3YO start. Hope she does better.
Third - 2 - La Stellina - Close in what looked to be a similar race.
Fourth - 3 - Seven Fifty - Claiming down to 53.5kg. Technically her third 3YO start. Her career form to date looks like she is another who has had a couple of starts but been put away to come back at a better time. Maybe this is the time she can be unleashed.
Race 5 - 1200m Maiden - Lots of runners having their first start here, really makes it quite open, hard to know what to expect from a few of these runners, tough start to the Quaddie.
My Picks
First - 14 - Veronica Hall - Good course and distance record, beaten favourite, claiming.
Second - 1 - Distance suits and should not have an issue with the slow track, back from a strong race last start.
Third - 5 - The final round - Why not? seems to have trialed well.
Fourth - 3 - Isdabicky - Handful of trials placing recently.
Race 6 - 1600m Racing 65m - Interesting race for three reasons, firstly there is a number of runners back to this level after racing for higher stakes recently, secondly there is a few either dropping back in distance or possibly working their way up to more distance, and thirdly there are several who have not really performed on rain effected tracks.
My Picks
First - 2 - Are you Devious - Without the claim I would be less confident, this is easier than recent races but the slow track performance two starts back is a concern.
Second - 4 - Ransoms Gold - Good performances recently, amongst the favourites again.
Third - 7 - Speedy Rocket - Should suit the conditions, 1600m should see improvement, has been racing for higher stakes at R65 level.
Fourth - 3 - Lovetohaveit - Winner previously at Ellerslie, taking a big claim while taking on a level which is more suitable.
Race 7 - 1200m Rating 65 - Is it just me or do we have some very good apprentice Jockeys around? I really like a number of them and feel very comfortable betting on them.
My Picks
First - 6 - Lady Krovanh - Really good 3rd over 2100m to the eventual derby winner. Freshened. Should go well here.
Second - 12 - Tale to Tell - Was impressed with the maiden victory last start.
Third - 4 - Secret Whisper - Ran in the Guineas last start, 1200m should suit fresh up.
Fourth - 17 - Vuela - Value, concern is track and strong competition.
Race 8 - 1400m Maiden - Interesting race, a lot of possibilities, very few I feel are certain to perform.
My Picks
First - 6 - My Blossom Lady - If you forget the last start then you feel the most confident about her.
Second - 8 - Morgan Le Fay - Looked to have that strong finish to suit 1400m
Third - 2 - Ribbony Rose - Slow track concerns, but merit in the last two starts.
Fourth - 3 - Scarlet Chaparral - Place chance like so many in this race.
Friday, 16 March 2012
New Zealand Oaks 2012 Preview
Quick, who won the 2011 New Zealand Oaks? tick, tock, tick, buzz. Sorry, no, Kings Rose did not win the Oaks, thanks for playing we have some lovely parting gifts for you.
If you had guessed Scarlett Lady, Shez Sensational, Postmans Daughter or any of the other leading 4YO mares we are seeing around at the moment you would still be wrong. Midnight Oil was the winner, she was followed by Zennista and Insurgent.
This is another year were we will not see the top 3YO filly win the Oaks; she won the New Zealand Derby two weeks ago. That said this field is highlighted by some absolutely top class 3YO talent. The 3YO fillies have been rocking it this year, it is an excellent crop, in my Opinion two of the most stacked 3YO races this year, other than the Derby have been the Eight Carat Classic on Boxing Day and the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. These races didn't even even feature top 3YO prospect at the beginning of the season Anabandana and the Eight Carat Classic featured Dowager Queen but she was far from her best at that point in the season.
This years Oak's field definitely looks split between the "have's" and "have not's" the top half of the book is already very accomplished and filled with genuine winning chances, the bottom half of the book features more uncertainty, but this is the Oaks, it is a huge race and anything can happen.
The Have's
Planet Rock was so impressive in the wet at Hastings, she is a prime contender in this. She is the second favourite which is confusing. Yes, prior to the run at Hastings she recorded two 4ths, but I do feel like she can be fully excused for the first one and partially excused for the second. If you throw out those races would she be favourite? My biggest concern is the change in Jockey, taking off arguably the best big race jockey in the country, that is confusing, in spite of that she may still win.
Is Artistic the filly version of Shuka? look at her 3YO season, it is very consistent, she has finished close up to some very strong competition and she is clearly in the top tier of 3YO's, but she has not really won the big one. I was not sure about her over more distance, but the win during Auckland Cup week and the Sir Tristram Fillies fifth have convinced me otherwise. Has got lucky with the draw, but possibly will face too much competition here to win.
Capital Diamond was very good last time in the Capital. Was just taken out by a flying finish by Quintessential. Zurella gave her more of the same in the Sir Tristram Fillies and Planet Rock trounced her in the Lowland Stakes. She will look to lead and barrier 1 suits this well. She is a very good filly who, with a bit of luck, may have won three starts back at Trentham and won the Sir Tristram Fillies and come into this race as favourite. As it is she is paying $10 (fixed) and $3.25 a place (fixed), can she win? absolutely, will she finish in the money? very likely. Take the $3.25 and thank me later.
Zurella, we know it needs to be dry (and it looks like it will be). We know she goes considerably better left. We know she has run 2400m reasonably well. But there is something about her which leaves me a little cold. Is she overrated? I think she might be. Clearly she is talented, but if you put a stake in the ground and called it A and another stake in the ground 6.2 lengths away and called it B you would be looking at the difference between the best 3YO filly and Zurella (over 2400m), do you think any other filly will finish in that gap in this race? I think so.
Quintessential is paying $15 and $4.75 at the moment. I am not sure what to make of this. I really put it all down to the draw. She is better than that. She finished the day after Planet Rock when third in the Lowland Stakes, but those conditions were horrible. Based on her win here in late January alone you have to consider her a contender here. As I said, I am very put off by the draw, but that is really the major doubt in my mind.
Chicharita is properly rated for this race. She is a horse who I liked for the derby when the conditions looked like they might be bad, this week with a track probably improving to good by start time I am not as confident in her ability to beat some of the other contenders here. Her worst results have come left handed, she was 6th in the Sir Tristram Fillies, every horse who beat her is in this race. Although, she did look good over 2400m as the second filly home, I cant see her improving on that Derby run.
Joy's Choice has been on the radar for a while, but really emerged in the Royal Stakes at Ellerslie, she then came very close to winning the Sunline Vase during Auckland Cup week. I definitely have her in the top half of this field and would be another who I would not be surprised to see in the finish. She is pretty well drawn, and although she was caught late over 2100m, if she can get a sweet trip and save her energy and emerge slightly later she may be able to hold on this time.
Splitsecond is probably the biggest beneficiary of Silent Achiever heading overseas, she will gain the services of James McDonald for this race as he and Roger James target a Derby/Oaks double. $9 is probably a little shorter than I would have expected, but if the Sunline Vase was 2150m she may have won that race (actually Glad probably would have won that race). She has quickly risen to this level and I think a horse like Carrick is a fair comparison, so she has to be considered, she can definitely win this, but with the level of competition $9 does not look like value, $3 a place is more realistic.
The Have Nots (or more accurately the Have Not Yet's)
Poste Restante looks comfortable racing at rating 65 level, she has stepped up recently in distance and slightly in class and been solid but unspectacular. If Angleology was a filly, where would you rate him in the field after his Derby Performance? Probably not in the top 7, right?
Savasong might still be running the Lowlands Stakes. Forgive that race because of the conditions, and look at the 1800m second at New Plymouth as a better guide. Not exactly the stiffest competition, but signs point to her finishing the 2400m well.
Melody Celebre last ran over 1200m about 6 weeks ago. She will like a bit more distance, but this is double, she has run over 1600m a couple of times without success. What is the best case for her? I really don't know. She could win this, but it would require mass scratching for unknown reasons.
Tilda was only 7.5 lengths away from Silent Achiever in the Avondale Guineas. Of course Silent Achiever walked in that race, and that put her behind 6 derby runners. She has had another lower grade start over 2100m since. She looks like she will be able to get the 2400m, but is out of her class here.
Asavant is probably the 'have not' to beat until the barrier draw. It is hard to see her figuring here. She raced in the same race at Trentham on the 28th of January as a number of these starters and finished 13th, she is probably better than that but not significantly.
Jungle Pago is consistent-ish, but hard to see her doing anything over 2400m based on the video of her last start.
Lady Plantinum has been there-or-thereabouts and getting better with distance. The set weight may actually hinder her chances. Although she is not in the class of a lot of these runners she is better than 100-1 would suggest and might be the "have not" to watch.
Manhattam Mam shouldn't be a threat in this race, it is a major step up in class.
Myminkcoat has a very cool name and has been consistent when the footing is good. She is one who should be suited to 2400m and almost closed enough to win last start over 2200m. Again 100-1 seems unfairly high, but I guess when your ceiling may be a top 6 finish it doesn't make a lot of difference.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - I can't sleep on her, she is a Group 1 winner who has returned to form.
Second - Capital Diamond - Forget the last start (it was still a Group 3 Second), but the last two before that were so close.
Third - Splitsecond - I am buying the flying finish from the Sunline Vase
Fourth - Zurella - Reluctantly, I really wanted to pick Artistic, but I know I am too hard on Zurella and she will probably outperform my expectations.
If you had guessed Scarlett Lady, Shez Sensational, Postmans Daughter or any of the other leading 4YO mares we are seeing around at the moment you would still be wrong. Midnight Oil was the winner, she was followed by Zennista and Insurgent.
This is another year were we will not see the top 3YO filly win the Oaks; she won the New Zealand Derby two weeks ago. That said this field is highlighted by some absolutely top class 3YO talent. The 3YO fillies have been rocking it this year, it is an excellent crop, in my Opinion two of the most stacked 3YO races this year, other than the Derby have been the Eight Carat Classic on Boxing Day and the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. These races didn't even even feature top 3YO prospect at the beginning of the season Anabandana and the Eight Carat Classic featured Dowager Queen but she was far from her best at that point in the season.
This years Oak's field definitely looks split between the "have's" and "have not's" the top half of the book is already very accomplished and filled with genuine winning chances, the bottom half of the book features more uncertainty, but this is the Oaks, it is a huge race and anything can happen.
The Have's
Planet Rock was so impressive in the wet at Hastings, she is a prime contender in this. She is the second favourite which is confusing. Yes, prior to the run at Hastings she recorded two 4ths, but I do feel like she can be fully excused for the first one and partially excused for the second. If you throw out those races would she be favourite? My biggest concern is the change in Jockey, taking off arguably the best big race jockey in the country, that is confusing, in spite of that she may still win.
Is Artistic the filly version of Shuka? look at her 3YO season, it is very consistent, she has finished close up to some very strong competition and she is clearly in the top tier of 3YO's, but she has not really won the big one. I was not sure about her over more distance, but the win during Auckland Cup week and the Sir Tristram Fillies fifth have convinced me otherwise. Has got lucky with the draw, but possibly will face too much competition here to win.
Capital Diamond was very good last time in the Capital. Was just taken out by a flying finish by Quintessential. Zurella gave her more of the same in the Sir Tristram Fillies and Planet Rock trounced her in the Lowland Stakes. She will look to lead and barrier 1 suits this well. She is a very good filly who, with a bit of luck, may have won three starts back at Trentham and won the Sir Tristram Fillies and come into this race as favourite. As it is she is paying $10 (fixed) and $3.25 a place (fixed), can she win? absolutely, will she finish in the money? very likely. Take the $3.25 and thank me later.
Zurella, we know it needs to be dry (and it looks like it will be). We know she goes considerably better left. We know she has run 2400m reasonably well. But there is something about her which leaves me a little cold. Is she overrated? I think she might be. Clearly she is talented, but if you put a stake in the ground and called it A and another stake in the ground 6.2 lengths away and called it B you would be looking at the difference between the best 3YO filly and Zurella (over 2400m), do you think any other filly will finish in that gap in this race? I think so.
Quintessential is paying $15 and $4.75 at the moment. I am not sure what to make of this. I really put it all down to the draw. She is better than that. She finished the day after Planet Rock when third in the Lowland Stakes, but those conditions were horrible. Based on her win here in late January alone you have to consider her a contender here. As I said, I am very put off by the draw, but that is really the major doubt in my mind.
Chicharita is properly rated for this race. She is a horse who I liked for the derby when the conditions looked like they might be bad, this week with a track probably improving to good by start time I am not as confident in her ability to beat some of the other contenders here. Her worst results have come left handed, she was 6th in the Sir Tristram Fillies, every horse who beat her is in this race. Although, she did look good over 2400m as the second filly home, I cant see her improving on that Derby run.
Joy's Choice has been on the radar for a while, but really emerged in the Royal Stakes at Ellerslie, she then came very close to winning the Sunline Vase during Auckland Cup week. I definitely have her in the top half of this field and would be another who I would not be surprised to see in the finish. She is pretty well drawn, and although she was caught late over 2100m, if she can get a sweet trip and save her energy and emerge slightly later she may be able to hold on this time.
Splitsecond is probably the biggest beneficiary of Silent Achiever heading overseas, she will gain the services of James McDonald for this race as he and Roger James target a Derby/Oaks double. $9 is probably a little shorter than I would have expected, but if the Sunline Vase was 2150m she may have won that race (actually Glad probably would have won that race). She has quickly risen to this level and I think a horse like Carrick is a fair comparison, so she has to be considered, she can definitely win this, but with the level of competition $9 does not look like value, $3 a place is more realistic.
The Have Nots (or more accurately the Have Not Yet's)
Poste Restante looks comfortable racing at rating 65 level, she has stepped up recently in distance and slightly in class and been solid but unspectacular. If Angleology was a filly, where would you rate him in the field after his Derby Performance? Probably not in the top 7, right?
Savasong might still be running the Lowlands Stakes. Forgive that race because of the conditions, and look at the 1800m second at New Plymouth as a better guide. Not exactly the stiffest competition, but signs point to her finishing the 2400m well.
Melody Celebre last ran over 1200m about 6 weeks ago. She will like a bit more distance, but this is double, she has run over 1600m a couple of times without success. What is the best case for her? I really don't know. She could win this, but it would require mass scratching for unknown reasons.
Tilda was only 7.5 lengths away from Silent Achiever in the Avondale Guineas. Of course Silent Achiever walked in that race, and that put her behind 6 derby runners. She has had another lower grade start over 2100m since. She looks like she will be able to get the 2400m, but is out of her class here.
Asavant is probably the 'have not' to beat until the barrier draw. It is hard to see her figuring here. She raced in the same race at Trentham on the 28th of January as a number of these starters and finished 13th, she is probably better than that but not significantly.
Jungle Pago is consistent-ish, but hard to see her doing anything over 2400m based on the video of her last start.
Lady Plantinum has been there-or-thereabouts and getting better with distance. The set weight may actually hinder her chances. Although she is not in the class of a lot of these runners she is better than 100-1 would suggest and might be the "have not" to watch.
Manhattam Mam shouldn't be a threat in this race, it is a major step up in class.
Myminkcoat has a very cool name and has been consistent when the footing is good. She is one who should be suited to 2400m and almost closed enough to win last start over 2200m. Again 100-1 seems unfairly high, but I guess when your ceiling may be a top 6 finish it doesn't make a lot of difference.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - I can't sleep on her, she is a Group 1 winner who has returned to form.
Second - Capital Diamond - Forget the last start (it was still a Group 3 Second), but the last two before that were so close.
Third - Splitsecond - I am buying the flying finish from the Sunline Vase
Fourth - Zurella - Reluctantly, I really wanted to pick Artistic, but I know I am too hard on Zurella and she will probably outperform my expectations.
Friday, 2 March 2012
Previewing Derby Day
I have gone into a lot of detail about the actual Telecom New Zealand Derby, but there is a lot of great racing action happening at Ellerslie at TV3 Derby Day. Any day when you have $20,000 maidens will be a day where you attract the top talent available.
Lindaeur 1400, Maiden
5 Eastward - Bad luck in Hamilton last start, missed the start and fighting for a run, however wound up well. 1400m looks idea, drawn barrier one will hopefully give him more room.
1 American Idol - Consistently strong in first two starts, an extra 100m to 1400m Saturday. Both runners to beat him last start were already race winners.
3 El Volante - Was so close to breaking Maiden ranks last start over 1400m, showed a strong finish, narrowly missing out to a runner who was not far away up in grade next start. Forget the 1600m last start, it feels like 1400m will suit.
9 Impy Luis - Far more consistency shown this prep, it looks like taking on 1400m will suit as she will be fitter for the runs back, possible value.
Stella Artois 2100m, Special Conditions 2100m
8 Grande Bellezza - Good experience over this kind of distance and running in bigger maiden and Special conditions races. Kept giving a lot last start, you cannot find too many faults with the run, was simply beaten by a better horse who is a Derby chance.
6 Rhythm Divine - A runner who has shown some ability at Ellerslie and with some moisture around. Claiming 3kg. She has been running in strong maidens and Special conditions races. Quick over the last 600m last start. The step to 2100m will appeal.
7 Te Ariki - Looks a genuine stayer at 4YO, already has five runs over 2000m and seems best suited to 2100m, can see it winning this.
2 Roddick - Maybe has not quite been competing against the same level of competition recently, however the victory last start was strong and a repeat performance here would see him in the money most likely.
TV3 Nathan's Memorial 2200m, Open Handicap
2 Shez Sensational - She really lives up to the name. Looking to back up on Wednesday in the Cup one would assume. Handicap conditions see her carry 59kgs, 2200m is more distance than her starts this prep, but she has placed in a Derby and an Oaks in the past.
3 The Jungle Boy - Will be one hoping for rain. He is getting closer to breaking that Ellerslie jinx, this is slightly easier than the Avondale Cup so he can hopefully go one or two better than fourth.
1 Titch - Gets better with racing and looks good after winning his last two starts particularly after taking the 2kg claim into account. This race is tougher, but he has a shining Ellerslie record, and if there is rain around he will be in his element.
6 Azincourt - He tends to get better with racing. His distance record is interesting recently, when he runs 2000m he looks like she needs more distance, when he runs 2100 or 2200m he looks a bit spent. Drawn well and handles damper conditions, can he be another to challenge his Ellerslie Jinx?
The Gucci Mile, 3YO 1600m
7 Abeautifulred - A filly I have liked since the Guineas, always competitive and has been racing against top company in the 3YO ranks. A step back to 1600m should see her on top.
1 Kings Fortune - Showed significant promise recently but the weight is a concern, it is difficult not to have him in the mix on recent results.
8 Full of Spirit - if you watch the last two starts you will see a horse ready for 1600m, has been running in solid races and looks well suited here.
3 Hexie Hao - Has come on in January, this is tougher, but with the claim and impressively consistent record he should be considered here.
Barfoot and Thompson Mile, Rating 85 1600m
6 Rasteau - Consistent and in form, forget the run two starts back we should see another strong finish over 1600m.
8 Essaouria - Always close, 1600m record is great and seems to handle all conditions so far. Back up in grade but will only have to carry 54kg
5 Platinum Dancer - Flying to finish third in a similar race recently, will have an extra 200m to handle but it looks like he is ready for that.
4 Steel Giant - Don't know much about this horse returning from Hong Kong, usually runners struggle with the conditions or the change in location but he has a good enough overall record that he is worth considering.
The New Zealand Herald 1400, Rating 65 1400m
4 Positive Energy - Close to two from two at 1400m last start. That was impressive because he ran three and four wide early and showed a big finish. Looks like he will be a threat when he steps up to 1600m but for now 1400m looks a good trip.
5 Have no Mercy - Has talent and will claim 3kg, has placed 2 of 3 runs at Ellerslie and wont mind the wet conditions predicted. Last start over 1400m was very good where there was a lot of fight shown.
9 Ishimine - Has been running on this type of premier day recently, was very good two starts back weaving through traffic for 4th, the 3rd at Matamata was distant, but it looks as if 1400m should see her in this.
13 Bead of Courage - Possible value runner, both wins have come over 1400m and on rain effected tracks, will claim 3kg down to very little weight. Won third and fourth up last prep so should come on with the first up start.
Darley Plate, Group 3 1200m
3 Justanexcuse - A lot to like in this race, he has been racing over more distance but has an impressive 1200m record. He has been freshened since January and he goes very well in that state, he will not be concerned by the rain and barrier 10 shouldn't concern given he will likely go back anyway.
1 Durham Town - Very unlucky last start, the fall by Vinnie Colgan was nasty and could have been much worse as he was very close to the rail. He has an Ellerslie and 1200m record similar to Veyron and he seems to be getting better. My concern is that the times he has failed to place at Ellerslie have both been on rain effected tracks. He is undefeated after a spell like he has just had.
5 Vonusti - Although he has been taking on more ground recently he has had a month off and brought back to the distance in which he is a Group 1 winner. 55kg's appeals, he has a good record at Ellerslie and will handle any moisture in the ground. He was running in pretty good form prior to Christmas and this looks a bit easier than some recent starts.
4 Ourforeignminister - Was pretty good in the winter and spring last year. 1200m is probably short of ideal, but I like his chances to do something resuming on what is likely to be a rain effected track.
George FM 2100, Rating 75 over 2100m
3 Captian Marvel - Aside from the one slow track he has encountered he has won or placed in each start to date, will probably figure here.
12 La Veinne - Another runner on the rise, well weighted here with a distance which suits. Seems to have struggled getting away from barrier one, but a threat with a good trip.
2 Payback - Good course and distance record, will handle the wet, claiming 1kg and looks suited to 2100m. Could be value.
10 Bellino - Looked good on the track over 1600m, really came for them into 3rd, he has always gone well over a bit more distance so could be right in this.
New Zealand Derby
I have written an in-depth derby preview here.
Auckland 1400, Rating 75 1400m
3 C'est Magnifique - Goes well fresh, rain is a question mark but he looks to have a lot of talent, there are a lot of chances in this race but he looks very good.
1 Islington Bay - Second race in 3 years, a great effort first up, an extra 100m here suits as does the 3kg claim if the conditions are wet.
8 Lovesite - Is probably looking for more distance, but the claim and wet track effort makes this look like a suitable race on the way to more distance.
9 The Captain - Has not had many attempts right handed, but 1400m and a wet track should suit, seems to go well with some racing, definitely a chance.
Lindaeur 1400, Maiden
5 Eastward - Bad luck in Hamilton last start, missed the start and fighting for a run, however wound up well. 1400m looks idea, drawn barrier one will hopefully give him more room.
1 American Idol - Consistently strong in first two starts, an extra 100m to 1400m Saturday. Both runners to beat him last start were already race winners.
3 El Volante - Was so close to breaking Maiden ranks last start over 1400m, showed a strong finish, narrowly missing out to a runner who was not far away up in grade next start. Forget the 1600m last start, it feels like 1400m will suit.
9 Impy Luis - Far more consistency shown this prep, it looks like taking on 1400m will suit as she will be fitter for the runs back, possible value.
Stella Artois 2100m, Special Conditions 2100m
8 Grande Bellezza - Good experience over this kind of distance and running in bigger maiden and Special conditions races. Kept giving a lot last start, you cannot find too many faults with the run, was simply beaten by a better horse who is a Derby chance.
6 Rhythm Divine - A runner who has shown some ability at Ellerslie and with some moisture around. Claiming 3kg. She has been running in strong maidens and Special conditions races. Quick over the last 600m last start. The step to 2100m will appeal.
7 Te Ariki - Looks a genuine stayer at 4YO, already has five runs over 2000m and seems best suited to 2100m, can see it winning this.
2 Roddick - Maybe has not quite been competing against the same level of competition recently, however the victory last start was strong and a repeat performance here would see him in the money most likely.
TV3 Nathan's Memorial 2200m, Open Handicap
2 Shez Sensational - She really lives up to the name. Looking to back up on Wednesday in the Cup one would assume. Handicap conditions see her carry 59kgs, 2200m is more distance than her starts this prep, but she has placed in a Derby and an Oaks in the past.
3 The Jungle Boy - Will be one hoping for rain. He is getting closer to breaking that Ellerslie jinx, this is slightly easier than the Avondale Cup so he can hopefully go one or two better than fourth.
1 Titch - Gets better with racing and looks good after winning his last two starts particularly after taking the 2kg claim into account. This race is tougher, but he has a shining Ellerslie record, and if there is rain around he will be in his element.
6 Azincourt - He tends to get better with racing. His distance record is interesting recently, when he runs 2000m he looks like she needs more distance, when he runs 2100 or 2200m he looks a bit spent. Drawn well and handles damper conditions, can he be another to challenge his Ellerslie Jinx?
The Gucci Mile, 3YO 1600m
7 Abeautifulred - A filly I have liked since the Guineas, always competitive and has been racing against top company in the 3YO ranks. A step back to 1600m should see her on top.
1 Kings Fortune - Showed significant promise recently but the weight is a concern, it is difficult not to have him in the mix on recent results.
8 Full of Spirit - if you watch the last two starts you will see a horse ready for 1600m, has been running in solid races and looks well suited here.
3 Hexie Hao - Has come on in January, this is tougher, but with the claim and impressively consistent record he should be considered here.
Barfoot and Thompson Mile, Rating 85 1600m
6 Rasteau - Consistent and in form, forget the run two starts back we should see another strong finish over 1600m.
8 Essaouria - Always close, 1600m record is great and seems to handle all conditions so far. Back up in grade but will only have to carry 54kg
5 Platinum Dancer - Flying to finish third in a similar race recently, will have an extra 200m to handle but it looks like he is ready for that.
4 Steel Giant - Don't know much about this horse returning from Hong Kong, usually runners struggle with the conditions or the change in location but he has a good enough overall record that he is worth considering.
The New Zealand Herald 1400, Rating 65 1400m
4 Positive Energy - Close to two from two at 1400m last start. That was impressive because he ran three and four wide early and showed a big finish. Looks like he will be a threat when he steps up to 1600m but for now 1400m looks a good trip.
5 Have no Mercy - Has talent and will claim 3kg, has placed 2 of 3 runs at Ellerslie and wont mind the wet conditions predicted. Last start over 1400m was very good where there was a lot of fight shown.
9 Ishimine - Has been running on this type of premier day recently, was very good two starts back weaving through traffic for 4th, the 3rd at Matamata was distant, but it looks as if 1400m should see her in this.
13 Bead of Courage - Possible value runner, both wins have come over 1400m and on rain effected tracks, will claim 3kg down to very little weight. Won third and fourth up last prep so should come on with the first up start.
Darley Plate, Group 3 1200m
3 Justanexcuse - A lot to like in this race, he has been racing over more distance but has an impressive 1200m record. He has been freshened since January and he goes very well in that state, he will not be concerned by the rain and barrier 10 shouldn't concern given he will likely go back anyway.
1 Durham Town - Very unlucky last start, the fall by Vinnie Colgan was nasty and could have been much worse as he was very close to the rail. He has an Ellerslie and 1200m record similar to Veyron and he seems to be getting better. My concern is that the times he has failed to place at Ellerslie have both been on rain effected tracks. He is undefeated after a spell like he has just had.
5 Vonusti - Although he has been taking on more ground recently he has had a month off and brought back to the distance in which he is a Group 1 winner. 55kg's appeals, he has a good record at Ellerslie and will handle any moisture in the ground. He was running in pretty good form prior to Christmas and this looks a bit easier than some recent starts.
4 Ourforeignminister - Was pretty good in the winter and spring last year. 1200m is probably short of ideal, but I like his chances to do something resuming on what is likely to be a rain effected track.
George FM 2100, Rating 75 over 2100m
3 Captian Marvel - Aside from the one slow track he has encountered he has won or placed in each start to date, will probably figure here.
12 La Veinne - Another runner on the rise, well weighted here with a distance which suits. Seems to have struggled getting away from barrier one, but a threat with a good trip.
2 Payback - Good course and distance record, will handle the wet, claiming 1kg and looks suited to 2100m. Could be value.
10 Bellino - Looked good on the track over 1600m, really came for them into 3rd, he has always gone well over a bit more distance so could be right in this.
New Zealand Derby
I have written an in-depth derby preview here.
Auckland 1400, Rating 75 1400m
3 C'est Magnifique - Goes well fresh, rain is a question mark but he looks to have a lot of talent, there are a lot of chances in this race but he looks very good.
1 Islington Bay - Second race in 3 years, a great effort first up, an extra 100m here suits as does the 3kg claim if the conditions are wet.
8 Lovesite - Is probably looking for more distance, but the claim and wet track effort makes this look like a suitable race on the way to more distance.
9 The Captain - Has not had many attempts right handed, but 1400m and a wet track should suit, seems to go well with some racing, definitely a chance.
Monday, 27 February 2012
20 Things to look forward to during Auckland Cup Week
Auckland Cup Week is nearly upon us, it will be an excellent week to celebration New Zealand Racing, although I will no doubt look more closely at some of the feature races as we get closer to the main event, here are a list of things you can look forward to during Auckland Cup Week at Ellerslie.
1. Infield Partying
There are really only a couple of race days a year where the track is packed to the point the infield is used, Saturday the 3rd of March (TV3 Derby Day) will be one of them. I recall last year cramming under a makeshift shelter in the infield with about a dozen friends only coming out to brave the conditions to restock alcohol, place bets and watch races, but it was great fun, very memorable. I eventually made a run to the grandstand to watch Jimmy Choux do his thing, but the party atmosphere in the infield is always a great time. Boxing Day 2011 had one of the biggest crowds I can remember seeing at Ellerslie, the infield was packed and people were having a great time. Ellerslie does a great job of putting on peripheral entertainment, this year featuring Kimbra, I have no idea who that is, but they sure seem to be pushing it.
2. James McDonald
Last year Opie Bosson had an amazing Auckland Cup Carnival, he rode Titch, The Party Stand, and Anabandana to victories in the Auckland Cup, New Zealand Stakes, and the Diamond Stakes taking out three of the four Group 1 races during Auckland Cup week. That seemed an amazing feat, well this year James McDonald has a chance to replicate that feat as pointed out in the Waikato Times. Can he do it will be a sub-story of Cup week, Silent Achiever is currently Derby favorite, Shez Sensational is looking very good for the Cup. The article talks about Scarlett Lady, and if that is favoured in the New Zealand Stakes, however it looks like it has been withdrawn from nominations (at least they are not listed in on the NZRacing Website), if that is the case you might assume she will be in Australia. The question remains, who will he ride in the remaining Group 1, he rode Choice Bro before Matthew Cameron rode him to victory in Taranaki, he rode Silk Pins in its last start before the Karaka Million, he has ridden Deakes and Toaist Master who are potential nominees. I have no idea who is likely to be in this race, or who he is likely to ride, however looking at some of the potential names you have to figure he is a good chance in that Group 1. Assuming Shez Sensational opts for the Cup and Scarlett Lady is not in the NZ Stakes, James McDonald will no doubt get a ride in this race, however looking at recent 2000m WFA races it is harder to see a likely favourite he might ride, so this may be the one which gets away, either way a possible Mcdonald-Sweep is something to look out for during Cup week.
3. The Nathan's Memorial
As discussed last week two of the last three Auckland Cup winners have come second in this race on Derby Day. This seemingly typical 2200m event will likely feature horses racing as a lead up for the cup against others who simply see it as a good value Open Handicap event.
4. New Zealand's Top Horses
Take away the 4 Group 1's and the handful of other races at listed level and above, the fields are stacked throughout the week, even the midweek meeting. Last year Veyron won a 1200m rating 90, he is now a three time Group 1 winner. High stakes are on offer all week which brings in the top horses from around the country.
5. The Telecom New Zealand Derby on TV3 Derby Day
A major feature of Auckland Cup week, and this year promises a number of contenders who all have their merits. Silent Achiever is the favourite, but there is a lot to like about Ocean Park, Zurella and Rock'n'Pop who I can see potentially taking it out. Shuka you would think would need some luck, and Travolta and Carick looked good in the Avondale Guineas. Don't sleep on any of the longer shots they have tended to feature in recent years, it is the Derby, anything can happen.
6. Something for everyone
Looking back at last year, over the 30 races there were essentially an even number from 1200m, 1400m, 1600m, and 21/2200m, as well as races over 1100m, 2000m, 2400m and 3200m. Again an even number of the maiden's, Rating 70, 80, 90 and Open level races, four races for 3YO's a couple for 2YO's and Fillies and Mares. Whatever you are into there is something for you, it also gives trainers and connections opportunity to find the right race for their horse to compete which should increase the racing excitement.
7. Sunline Vase You don't want to sleep on this potentially explosive event. It is a listed race for the 3YO Fillies over 2100m, but there should be some real talent on display. Look back at the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic a couple of weeks ago, some of those contenders will be on display in the derby, but it is evident that we have a talented group of 3YO fillies, many of these will be taking on this event before the Oaks in a couple of weeks, this is a race to keep an eye on.
8. A major Citywide event
There is certainly a buzz around Auckland leading up to derby day. Not a crazy buzz, this is not an All Black's game, but people are definitely aware it is on, there will be a significant turn out all three days. Auckland Racing Club does a good job promoting this event and making people aware of how fun a day at the races can be.
9. TV3's new Sponsorship
Telecom is a great Derby Sponsor, TV3 certainly has great potential to bring additional life to the event. I can imagine their sponsorship should see more coverage of races outside of the Trackside channels. I thought Sky TV did a great job on Karaka Million night, and although I will be at Ellerslie on Derby Day it will be interesting to see what TV3 can do showing off the sights and sounds.
10. A 3200m Group 1
A very unique event, yes it is annual, but still not a lot of these major staying tests in the country, this year's field is starting to look like it is a very solid one. The Stella Artois Auckland Cup is a race which dates back until 1874 (at least if Wikipedia is to be believed). It is really the great unknown, many of the runners who accept wont have started a race over 2400m, it will a great test of stamina, a big field will line up which will make it s tactical challenge, and a stunning sight for the spectators, there will be questions on every runner as they enter the parade ring, there will be no certainties. Look at the Current favourites, Shez Sensational, Booming, Single Minded, Titch and Six O'Clock News, some questions include distance, weight, distance, form, and consistency amongst others. The winner will see it as an opportunity to look at other Cup races in the future as well as adding a/another Group 1 to their resume.
11. An office sweepstake opportunity
Do you really need an excuse? if it is good for the Melbourne Cup why not the Auckland Cup, it is on in a lot of pubs, get the team together, set up a sweep, drink beers, have fun, it is a simple recipe.If you are the person in your office who is into racing, take charge, set it up.
12. Diamond Day Whip'n'Spurs
If you have not yet experienced a Whips'n'Spurs party you should make this the one. They are a great event, relatively cheap, filled with people all dressed up, you get a great view of the track, and can party all night. You can get your tickets here.
13. Fashion and Stuff
It is not what brings me to the races, but it does tend to attract a lot of Women, and that is never a bad thing. Whenever I can get a good group together to attend these major race days I get to witness how much time an energy females put into wardrobe, hair, makeup, accessories. They go crazy for this stuff and despite the frustration which accompanies making five outfit changes in a morning before the races they clearly enjoy it. I am not in a position to mock, I spend multiple hours studying form in the week leading up to the races and typically get less out of it. The best bit, have you see a woman try to walk in high heels after three bottles of bubbly in 25+ degree temperatures, it is fun for the whole family.
14. New Zealand Stakes
What do you expect? Shez Sensational has won two Group 1 WFA races over 2000m this season, but take her out of it and this will be a wide open race. Look at the results we have seen this year in the Windsor Park Plate, the Spring Classic, the Captian Cook Stakes, the Zabeel Classic, the Darci Brahma International, and most recently the Otaki Group 1. We wont see Mufhasa, we most likely wont see Shez Sensational or Jimmy Choux, but you can see the quality these races are attracting and the mixed variety of results behind the winners. Veyron's plans are not certain, but given how well he went over 2000m on Boxing day, his love of Auckland and the form he is in, it could be an interesting race.
15. Changing the colours of the Jockey statue
Will we be seeing Titch's colours adorn the Jockey statue for another year? It is a quirky but awesome tradition at Ellerslie (and many other tracks), the winner of the Auckland Cup will have their colours painted on the statue in the back parade ring for the next year.
16. It is happening all over town
I don't want to get to carried away talking about the other codes, but Auckland Cup is not all about the Thoroughbred's. It is happening at Alexandra Park too, they actually kick it off this Friday night with their Oaks followed by their Derby/Cup night the following week, the details are here. If you are into the dag's (you like dag's?), they have their cup too, next Thursday night, details here.
17. Diamond Stakes
The first Group 1 for the Two Year Olds this season. It is shaping up like an outstanding one. The Two year olds have been going at each other this year, contenders are stepping up and then getting knocked down, it is fascinating stuff. I have no idea what to expect from this year group, it is not like there is a dominant Anabandana this year.
18. Enjoy a day in a beautiful park
Ellerslie is stunning, I was out there the other week for the Avondale Guineas day and the course and grounds are looking in excellent condition. You can essentially boil the day down to a picnic in the park, only with 20,000 other people. Even without the added entertainment, it is almost worth the price of admission just to enjoy the surroundings.
19. Midweek Racing of consequence
Having significant racing during the middle of the week is great. The Cup is at the perfect time to knock off work and head down to the pub, or if you are in the Auckland area just take the day off, a lot of other people will be. Better yet, arrange a 'team building' exercise and get paid to go to the races.
20. Leading international Jockeys
Craig Williams recently won the Karaka Million on Ockham's Razor, it is just another example of the success that international Jockey's have had when they venture to our shores. Cup week last year we saw wins from Jim Byrne, Douglas Whyte, Shane Scriven, other internationals Glenn Boss and Craig Williams riding here not to mention other Jockeys who were based in New Zealand who won that week like Mark Du Plessis, Jason Collett, Opie Bosson who are either overseas now or were at some point in the past 12 months riding. The prize money is not quite what is was last year, but there is still potential to see some internationals making the trip to New Zealand.
1. Infield Partying
There are really only a couple of race days a year where the track is packed to the point the infield is used, Saturday the 3rd of March (TV3 Derby Day) will be one of them. I recall last year cramming under a makeshift shelter in the infield with about a dozen friends only coming out to brave the conditions to restock alcohol, place bets and watch races, but it was great fun, very memorable. I eventually made a run to the grandstand to watch Jimmy Choux do his thing, but the party atmosphere in the infield is always a great time. Boxing Day 2011 had one of the biggest crowds I can remember seeing at Ellerslie, the infield was packed and people were having a great time. Ellerslie does a great job of putting on peripheral entertainment, this year featuring Kimbra, I have no idea who that is, but they sure seem to be pushing it.
2. James McDonald
Last year Opie Bosson had an amazing Auckland Cup Carnival, he rode Titch, The Party Stand, and Anabandana to victories in the Auckland Cup, New Zealand Stakes, and the Diamond Stakes taking out three of the four Group 1 races during Auckland Cup week. That seemed an amazing feat, well this year James McDonald has a chance to replicate that feat as pointed out in the Waikato Times. Can he do it will be a sub-story of Cup week, Silent Achiever is currently Derby favorite, Shez Sensational is looking very good for the Cup. The article talks about Scarlett Lady, and if that is favoured in the New Zealand Stakes, however it looks like it has been withdrawn from nominations (at least they are not listed in on the NZRacing Website), if that is the case you might assume she will be in Australia. The question remains, who will he ride in the remaining Group 1, he rode Choice Bro before Matthew Cameron rode him to victory in Taranaki, he rode Silk Pins in its last start before the Karaka Million, he has ridden Deakes and Toaist Master who are potential nominees. I have no idea who is likely to be in this race, or who he is likely to ride, however looking at some of the potential names you have to figure he is a good chance in that Group 1. Assuming Shez Sensational opts for the Cup and Scarlett Lady is not in the NZ Stakes, James McDonald will no doubt get a ride in this race, however looking at recent 2000m WFA races it is harder to see a likely favourite he might ride, so this may be the one which gets away, either way a possible Mcdonald-Sweep is something to look out for during Cup week.
3. The Nathan's Memorial
As discussed last week two of the last three Auckland Cup winners have come second in this race on Derby Day. This seemingly typical 2200m event will likely feature horses racing as a lead up for the cup against others who simply see it as a good value Open Handicap event.
4. New Zealand's Top Horses
Take away the 4 Group 1's and the handful of other races at listed level and above, the fields are stacked throughout the week, even the midweek meeting. Last year Veyron won a 1200m rating 90, he is now a three time Group 1 winner. High stakes are on offer all week which brings in the top horses from around the country.
5. The Telecom New Zealand Derby on TV3 Derby Day
A major feature of Auckland Cup week, and this year promises a number of contenders who all have their merits. Silent Achiever is the favourite, but there is a lot to like about Ocean Park, Zurella and Rock'n'Pop who I can see potentially taking it out. Shuka you would think would need some luck, and Travolta and Carick looked good in the Avondale Guineas. Don't sleep on any of the longer shots they have tended to feature in recent years, it is the Derby, anything can happen.
6. Something for everyone
Looking back at last year, over the 30 races there were essentially an even number from 1200m, 1400m, 1600m, and 21/2200m, as well as races over 1100m, 2000m, 2400m and 3200m. Again an even number of the maiden's, Rating 70, 80, 90 and Open level races, four races for 3YO's a couple for 2YO's and Fillies and Mares. Whatever you are into there is something for you, it also gives trainers and connections opportunity to find the right race for their horse to compete which should increase the racing excitement.
7. Sunline Vase You don't want to sleep on this potentially explosive event. It is a listed race for the 3YO Fillies over 2100m, but there should be some real talent on display. Look back at the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic a couple of weeks ago, some of those contenders will be on display in the derby, but it is evident that we have a talented group of 3YO fillies, many of these will be taking on this event before the Oaks in a couple of weeks, this is a race to keep an eye on.
8. A major Citywide event
There is certainly a buzz around Auckland leading up to derby day. Not a crazy buzz, this is not an All Black's game, but people are definitely aware it is on, there will be a significant turn out all three days. Auckland Racing Club does a good job promoting this event and making people aware of how fun a day at the races can be.
9. TV3's new Sponsorship
Telecom is a great Derby Sponsor, TV3 certainly has great potential to bring additional life to the event. I can imagine their sponsorship should see more coverage of races outside of the Trackside channels. I thought Sky TV did a great job on Karaka Million night, and although I will be at Ellerslie on Derby Day it will be interesting to see what TV3 can do showing off the sights and sounds.
10. A 3200m Group 1
A very unique event, yes it is annual, but still not a lot of these major staying tests in the country, this year's field is starting to look like it is a very solid one. The Stella Artois Auckland Cup is a race which dates back until 1874 (at least if Wikipedia is to be believed). It is really the great unknown, many of the runners who accept wont have started a race over 2400m, it will a great test of stamina, a big field will line up which will make it s tactical challenge, and a stunning sight for the spectators, there will be questions on every runner as they enter the parade ring, there will be no certainties. Look at the Current favourites, Shez Sensational, Booming, Single Minded, Titch and Six O'Clock News, some questions include distance, weight, distance, form, and consistency amongst others. The winner will see it as an opportunity to look at other Cup races in the future as well as adding a/another Group 1 to their resume.
11. An office sweepstake opportunity
Do you really need an excuse? if it is good for the Melbourne Cup why not the Auckland Cup, it is on in a lot of pubs, get the team together, set up a sweep, drink beers, have fun, it is a simple recipe.If you are the person in your office who is into racing, take charge, set it up.
12. Diamond Day Whip'n'Spurs
If you have not yet experienced a Whips'n'Spurs party you should make this the one. They are a great event, relatively cheap, filled with people all dressed up, you get a great view of the track, and can party all night. You can get your tickets here.
13. Fashion and Stuff
It is not what brings me to the races, but it does tend to attract a lot of Women, and that is never a bad thing. Whenever I can get a good group together to attend these major race days I get to witness how much time an energy females put into wardrobe, hair, makeup, accessories. They go crazy for this stuff and despite the frustration which accompanies making five outfit changes in a morning before the races they clearly enjoy it. I am not in a position to mock, I spend multiple hours studying form in the week leading up to the races and typically get less out of it. The best bit, have you see a woman try to walk in high heels after three bottles of bubbly in 25+ degree temperatures, it is fun for the whole family.
14. New Zealand Stakes
What do you expect? Shez Sensational has won two Group 1 WFA races over 2000m this season, but take her out of it and this will be a wide open race. Look at the results we have seen this year in the Windsor Park Plate, the Spring Classic, the Captian Cook Stakes, the Zabeel Classic, the Darci Brahma International, and most recently the Otaki Group 1. We wont see Mufhasa, we most likely wont see Shez Sensational or Jimmy Choux, but you can see the quality these races are attracting and the mixed variety of results behind the winners. Veyron's plans are not certain, but given how well he went over 2000m on Boxing day, his love of Auckland and the form he is in, it could be an interesting race.
15. Changing the colours of the Jockey statue
Will we be seeing Titch's colours adorn the Jockey statue for another year? It is a quirky but awesome tradition at Ellerslie (and many other tracks), the winner of the Auckland Cup will have their colours painted on the statue in the back parade ring for the next year.
16. It is happening all over town
I don't want to get to carried away talking about the other codes, but Auckland Cup is not all about the Thoroughbred's. It is happening at Alexandra Park too, they actually kick it off this Friday night with their Oaks followed by their Derby/Cup night the following week, the details are here. If you are into the dag's (you like dag's?), they have their cup too, next Thursday night, details here.
17. Diamond Stakes
The first Group 1 for the Two Year Olds this season. It is shaping up like an outstanding one. The Two year olds have been going at each other this year, contenders are stepping up and then getting knocked down, it is fascinating stuff. I have no idea what to expect from this year group, it is not like there is a dominant Anabandana this year.
18. Enjoy a day in a beautiful park
Ellerslie is stunning, I was out there the other week for the Avondale Guineas day and the course and grounds are looking in excellent condition. You can essentially boil the day down to a picnic in the park, only with 20,000 other people. Even without the added entertainment, it is almost worth the price of admission just to enjoy the surroundings.
19. Midweek Racing of consequence
Having significant racing during the middle of the week is great. The Cup is at the perfect time to knock off work and head down to the pub, or if you are in the Auckland area just take the day off, a lot of other people will be. Better yet, arrange a 'team building' exercise and get paid to go to the races.
20. Leading international Jockeys
Craig Williams recently won the Karaka Million on Ockham's Razor, it is just another example of the success that international Jockey's have had when they venture to our shores. Cup week last year we saw wins from Jim Byrne, Douglas Whyte, Shane Scriven, other internationals Glenn Boss and Craig Williams riding here not to mention other Jockeys who were based in New Zealand who won that week like Mark Du Plessis, Jason Collett, Opie Bosson who are either overseas now or were at some point in the past 12 months riding. The prize money is not quite what is was last year, but there is still potential to see some internationals making the trip to New Zealand.
Thursday, 23 February 2012
The changing face of New Zealand Group One Races
For a time the Haunui Farm Group One Classic was looking like a rematch between Mufhasa, Veyron with Guiseppina in the mix. Now Mufhasa is off seeking his second Australian Group 1 of the season, in a race worth half a million Australian dollars. At some point it looked like he would be challenging the field for second with Black Caviar in that race, but it was a wise placement by Stephen McKee and Mufhasa's connections because realistically it was unlikely we would see Black Caviar run three weeks in a row, which seems a factor in the quality field the Futurity Stakes attracted.
The Otaki Group 1 really feels like the black sheep of New Zealand Group Ones, it just seems like a weird time and place amongst landscape of large race days and other Group 1's, aside from the $200,000 Group 1, the remaining races on this day are worth between $8,000 and $12,000. On first glance the field this attracted was maybe not what you might expect from a Group One either. This field contains four Group 1 winners, but it appears Vosne Romanee's best days have past, and Eagle Mountain is an unknown quantity.
When I looked again at this field in more detail this race may represent the changing face of New Zealand Group One races. Vosne Romanee, Vonsuti, Mufhasa, Hold It Harvey, Sir Slick, Six O'Clock News, Booming and two a lesser extent Wall Street (who is now racing in Australia), that is essentially the field for most Weight For Age Group 1 races over for the past couple of years. Yes, Mufhasa is still dominant, Six O'Clock News has maybe recaptured form, Booming was twice a Group 1 winner last year is still looking a possible Auckland Cup winner. These horses are not completely past it, but the point is that we have all seen these races before.
Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational have each won two Group One races this season at age four. This race contains Four Year Old mares Postman's Daughter (already a Group 2 winner and Group 1 place getter), Lady Kipling (Group 1 placed at age three and 4th in a Group 1 age four). As well as Five Year Old Group 1 Winning mare Guiseppina. This race contains Veyron (now a two time Group 1 winner) only age six, as well as promising five year old The Hombre who has won in Australia and placed at Group 1 level in New Zealand this year. This race also contains 4YO's Sadist and Jaggard who have question marks around the WFA races, but no question have talent and the potential to be running at this level. There have also been other recent runners at age four or five stepping up to Group 1 level and showing potential.
The question I am asking, is this race an example of the future of Group 1 racing in New Zealand? (for the next couple of years at least) Well, it is hard to say, certainly you would think Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational will continue to travel to Australia to compete. The problem with the mares like Guiseppina is that her connections will likely only continue to race her so long as they are winning more prize money than her progeny is likely to sell for, and they are not risking serious injury. Look at Barinka last year, solid career, finally got that Group 1, maybe didn't look like winning many more big races, suffered a bit of an injury, then retired. Another example is Veloce Bella who won the 2010 Darci Brahma International Stakes and by the time the 2011 version of that race came around she was in foal. I am sure there are countless other examples, but the landscape of these races can quickly change when it comes to the potential for a career after racing. That is why the nine horses I listed as an example of our recent Group 1 runners are all Geldings.
It is impossible to know how many more times the runners in the Haunui Farm Group 1 Classic will go on to compete against each other at this level because of some of the reasons listed above, but it is clear that I might have dismissed this field a bit too quickly because it does look like this field may contain some of the next generation of Group 1 competitors, and it is certainly evidence that we are in for an exciting group of emerging Group 1 contenders over the next couple of years.
How is this race going to play out? Here are some of my main talking points
I really think this race comes down to Eagle Mountain, certainly two years ago if he was running in this race he would have been considered favourite. At $7.50 on fixed odds it is clear that even bookmakers are not sure what to expect and they have kept him safe. The track is currently listed as dead and it is raining, weather effected tracks will suit him, he has a good 1600m record, but potentially more distance, like the New Zealand Stakes over 2000m might suit more. You almost have to include him because who knows what to expect.
Veyron will be the favourite coming off a strong Group 1 win over 1400m, he has a solid 1600m record and will be very hard to beat here.
Hold It Harvey is still very consistent and always seems to finish between 2nd and 4th in these races. This distance is his favourite recording 7 of his 14 victories at 1600m. He was really good this time of year last year, he has 8 career victories between 8th and 13th up, making this race right in the time when he tends to hit peak form. This is tough but $8.50 looks good value.
The Hombre looks the up-and-comer, if we were to jump forward to this time next year and list all of the Group 1 winners during that time, would you be surprised to see his name? no, me either. He looks to have that potential.
Guiseppina will likely struggle if it continues to rain, but this looks such a good opportunity for her to get a second Group One. Forget the run at Waikato, but I do question the 1600m, her results have been strange over this distance, she might have been effected by class, weight, track conditions or field size but the 12th and 15th are uncharacteristic, we have seen her run out 1400m races strongly which should indicate that 1600m is going to suit, but we are yet to see it.
Postmans Daughter is looking more and more likely to take out one of these races. Her last start was over 2000m, but dropping back in distance doesn't seem to be a major problem for her and she has a strong 1600m record. She also appears to becoming more suited to WFA conditions, and a rain effected track should not hinder her chances two much as she suits them better than a lot in this race.
Lady Kipling has won five races this season. This distance certainly appeals and WFA conditions for the 4YO mare shouldn't hold her chances back.
It is a tough race to pick because of the unknown conditions, looking at the forecast, we could get a lot of rain today, none tomorrow and then some overnight before the race. I will guess that this track will be at least Slow, possibly Heavy. That been the case my selections are
First - Veyron - Looks so good, handles all conditions, just a cut above.
Second - Hold it Harvey - Consistent, will handle the conditions, this could be the right place and the right time
Third - Postman's Daughter - Has shown she is up to this level of competition, back to 1600m shouldn't concern.
Fourth - Eagle Mountain - As I said he is so much of an unknown you really have to include him, particularly on a rain effected surface.
Value - Pretty good value around Postman's Daughter ($16), and even the Hombre ($10). Veyron looks so well placed here, but place odds for those will be interesting.
Longest shot I can see winning - Postman's Daughter ($16)
The Otaki Group 1 really feels like the black sheep of New Zealand Group Ones, it just seems like a weird time and place amongst landscape of large race days and other Group 1's, aside from the $200,000 Group 1, the remaining races on this day are worth between $8,000 and $12,000. On first glance the field this attracted was maybe not what you might expect from a Group One either. This field contains four Group 1 winners, but it appears Vosne Romanee's best days have past, and Eagle Mountain is an unknown quantity.
When I looked again at this field in more detail this race may represent the changing face of New Zealand Group One races. Vosne Romanee, Vonsuti, Mufhasa, Hold It Harvey, Sir Slick, Six O'Clock News, Booming and two a lesser extent Wall Street (who is now racing in Australia), that is essentially the field for most Weight For Age Group 1 races over for the past couple of years. Yes, Mufhasa is still dominant, Six O'Clock News has maybe recaptured form, Booming was twice a Group 1 winner last year is still looking a possible Auckland Cup winner. These horses are not completely past it, but the point is that we have all seen these races before.
Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational have each won two Group One races this season at age four. This race contains Four Year Old mares Postman's Daughter (already a Group 2 winner and Group 1 place getter), Lady Kipling (Group 1 placed at age three and 4th in a Group 1 age four). As well as Five Year Old Group 1 Winning mare Guiseppina. This race contains Veyron (now a two time Group 1 winner) only age six, as well as promising five year old The Hombre who has won in Australia and placed at Group 1 level in New Zealand this year. This race also contains 4YO's Sadist and Jaggard who have question marks around the WFA races, but no question have talent and the potential to be running at this level. There have also been other recent runners at age four or five stepping up to Group 1 level and showing potential.
The question I am asking, is this race an example of the future of Group 1 racing in New Zealand? (for the next couple of years at least) Well, it is hard to say, certainly you would think Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational will continue to travel to Australia to compete. The problem with the mares like Guiseppina is that her connections will likely only continue to race her so long as they are winning more prize money than her progeny is likely to sell for, and they are not risking serious injury. Look at Barinka last year, solid career, finally got that Group 1, maybe didn't look like winning many more big races, suffered a bit of an injury, then retired. Another example is Veloce Bella who won the 2010 Darci Brahma International Stakes and by the time the 2011 version of that race came around she was in foal. I am sure there are countless other examples, but the landscape of these races can quickly change when it comes to the potential for a career after racing. That is why the nine horses I listed as an example of our recent Group 1 runners are all Geldings.
It is impossible to know how many more times the runners in the Haunui Farm Group 1 Classic will go on to compete against each other at this level because of some of the reasons listed above, but it is clear that I might have dismissed this field a bit too quickly because it does look like this field may contain some of the next generation of Group 1 competitors, and it is certainly evidence that we are in for an exciting group of emerging Group 1 contenders over the next couple of years.
How is this race going to play out? Here are some of my main talking points
I really think this race comes down to Eagle Mountain, certainly two years ago if he was running in this race he would have been considered favourite. At $7.50 on fixed odds it is clear that even bookmakers are not sure what to expect and they have kept him safe. The track is currently listed as dead and it is raining, weather effected tracks will suit him, he has a good 1600m record, but potentially more distance, like the New Zealand Stakes over 2000m might suit more. You almost have to include him because who knows what to expect.
Veyron will be the favourite coming off a strong Group 1 win over 1400m, he has a solid 1600m record and will be very hard to beat here.
Hold It Harvey is still very consistent and always seems to finish between 2nd and 4th in these races. This distance is his favourite recording 7 of his 14 victories at 1600m. He was really good this time of year last year, he has 8 career victories between 8th and 13th up, making this race right in the time when he tends to hit peak form. This is tough but $8.50 looks good value.
The Hombre looks the up-and-comer, if we were to jump forward to this time next year and list all of the Group 1 winners during that time, would you be surprised to see his name? no, me either. He looks to have that potential.
Guiseppina will likely struggle if it continues to rain, but this looks such a good opportunity for her to get a second Group One. Forget the run at Waikato, but I do question the 1600m, her results have been strange over this distance, she might have been effected by class, weight, track conditions or field size but the 12th and 15th are uncharacteristic, we have seen her run out 1400m races strongly which should indicate that 1600m is going to suit, but we are yet to see it.
Postmans Daughter is looking more and more likely to take out one of these races. Her last start was over 2000m, but dropping back in distance doesn't seem to be a major problem for her and she has a strong 1600m record. She also appears to becoming more suited to WFA conditions, and a rain effected track should not hinder her chances two much as she suits them better than a lot in this race.
Lady Kipling has won five races this season. This distance certainly appeals and WFA conditions for the 4YO mare shouldn't hold her chances back.
It is a tough race to pick because of the unknown conditions, looking at the forecast, we could get a lot of rain today, none tomorrow and then some overnight before the race. I will guess that this track will be at least Slow, possibly Heavy. That been the case my selections are
First - Veyron - Looks so good, handles all conditions, just a cut above.
Second - Hold it Harvey - Consistent, will handle the conditions, this could be the right place and the right time
Third - Postman's Daughter - Has shown she is up to this level of competition, back to 1600m shouldn't concern.
Fourth - Eagle Mountain - As I said he is so much of an unknown you really have to include him, particularly on a rain effected surface.
Value - Pretty good value around Postman's Daughter ($16), and even the Hombre ($10). Veyron looks so well placed here, but place odds for those will be interesting.
Longest shot I can see winning - Postman's Daughter ($16)
Wednesday, 22 February 2012
Will Sir Slick win another race?
When perusing the nominations for this weekend's races I was struck by a couple of things. Firstly, we are looking at another excellent weekend of racing, Group 1 racing in New Zealand with the Haunui Farm Group 1 from Otaki, a big day in Melbourne, two important races for the two year olds in Matamata. The Second was the Listed, Stanley Group Trac Stakes., whilst I am interested in all of the racing action, the Stanley Group Trac Stakes really struck me, why did that race interest me? Sir Slick, not the fact he is nominated, this will be race 149, so he has been nominated many times before, but on first perusal of the field I thought "wow, he might actually have a shot here". It has been a while since I have watched a Sir Slick outing and genuinely thought that.
I love Sir Slick, I am sure that I am not alone in that feeling. He has an extraordinary overall record with 22 wins, he has placed another 39 times in his 148 starts to date. I fondly recall a series of races a few years ago the 2009 New Zealand Stakes, the Japan/NZ Trophy, and the Awapuni Gold Cup. (Follow the link and watch those races. You will need to sign up, but that is free. It is worth it).
I distinctly remember those races as the reason I love watching Sir Slick, it is ironic that in a career highlighted by a number of Group 1 wins and 22 overall victories the quintessential Sir Slick races I choose are 3 second placings. Why do I remember them? I guess I remember the first two because I was fortunate enough to be on course those days. The two which really stand out are the two battles with MacO'Reilly.
It is a strange experience looking back at those videos, on course that day at Ellerslie I was sitting on a table at the end of the home straight, I just remember it been a two horse race, I had no idea O'Reilly Rose nearly stole the show until watching that video. It is funny how you choose to remember events you witnessed in person. Do you remember how much the Ellerslie crowd loved Sir Slick? he was the people's champ, everyone wanted to see a victory, you could sense it. The way that race (and the one at Awapuni) played out, two front running horses, a break from the pack, they were really bringing the best out in each other (each had many great moments in races not facing each other, but those battles stick in my mind), it felt like none of the other horses existed, they were the only two that were important, which is why my memory is an altered reality.
They are examples of why we love Sir Slick. At his peak he was a bold front running horse, he said "I am going to do this, and if you want you can try and beat me". He dared his competitors to chase him down and more often than not wore them down. How can you not appreciate his confidence and raw ability? When he was challenged, when a horse like MacO'Reilly pulled up beside him, he always found more, he lifted, he loved the challenge, the race, the fight. He didn't always prevail, but he was the alpha male who hated having horses in front of him.
That might have been one of the last times that Slick was Slick. There is no doubting he has not quite reached the same heights since those races, or maybe even from slightly before. Yes, he won a couple of races (including taking out the following years Awapuni Gold Cup), he placed in a few and has raced well since then, but those races fondly stick in my mind.
Will Sir Slick win this weekend at Matamata? he certainly has a shot. He is facing the formerly great Pasta Post, who despite a couple of flashes has not recaptured pre-injury form.Veteran South Island galloper Inferno. Up and coming Undisclosed who is coming off his first Group 1 start and now looking at 2000m for the first time. Badly out of form stayer Back in Black, who is still looking at the Auckland Cup. Options, a South Islander who looked good in a couple of starts in Auckland and a third in a similar 2000m race at Te Rapa recently. Better Together a week removed from the Taranaki Cup (1800m) where 200m more might have helped. A former jumper who goes well fresh and showed good form prior to Christmas, Maythehorsebemagic. The often difficult to follow Miss Sharapova. Phantom Storm who may be looking for more distance but should be flying home. The Raconteur is a year removed from better form. The consistent Cat Woman who failed to fire last time stepping up to Open Handicap level. Finally the four year old Starcheeka who is improving with racing and will be well suited to 53kgs this weekend. There will be challenges, but he is definitely in with a chance, this 10 year old has been counted out before only to come back with a flash of his former brilliance. I think this race (if it happens as nominated) may come down to Starcheeka, Maythehorsebemagic, Options and Better Together, there are others who should be considered and Sir Slick is definitely one of those.
If Sir Slick is unable to secure a victory here the question will remain, will Sir Slick win another race? after all that he has given us, does it really matter?
I love Sir Slick, I am sure that I am not alone in that feeling. He has an extraordinary overall record with 22 wins, he has placed another 39 times in his 148 starts to date. I fondly recall a series of races a few years ago the 2009 New Zealand Stakes, the Japan/NZ Trophy, and the Awapuni Gold Cup. (Follow the link and watch those races. You will need to sign up, but that is free. It is worth it).
I distinctly remember those races as the reason I love watching Sir Slick, it is ironic that in a career highlighted by a number of Group 1 wins and 22 overall victories the quintessential Sir Slick races I choose are 3 second placings. Why do I remember them? I guess I remember the first two because I was fortunate enough to be on course those days. The two which really stand out are the two battles with MacO'Reilly.
It is a strange experience looking back at those videos, on course that day at Ellerslie I was sitting on a table at the end of the home straight, I just remember it been a two horse race, I had no idea O'Reilly Rose nearly stole the show until watching that video. It is funny how you choose to remember events you witnessed in person. Do you remember how much the Ellerslie crowd loved Sir Slick? he was the people's champ, everyone wanted to see a victory, you could sense it. The way that race (and the one at Awapuni) played out, two front running horses, a break from the pack, they were really bringing the best out in each other (each had many great moments in races not facing each other, but those battles stick in my mind), it felt like none of the other horses existed, they were the only two that were important, which is why my memory is an altered reality.
They are examples of why we love Sir Slick. At his peak he was a bold front running horse, he said "I am going to do this, and if you want you can try and beat me". He dared his competitors to chase him down and more often than not wore them down. How can you not appreciate his confidence and raw ability? When he was challenged, when a horse like MacO'Reilly pulled up beside him, he always found more, he lifted, he loved the challenge, the race, the fight. He didn't always prevail, but he was the alpha male who hated having horses in front of him.
That might have been one of the last times that Slick was Slick. There is no doubting he has not quite reached the same heights since those races, or maybe even from slightly before. Yes, he won a couple of races (including taking out the following years Awapuni Gold Cup), he placed in a few and has raced well since then, but those races fondly stick in my mind.
Will Sir Slick win this weekend at Matamata? he certainly has a shot. He is facing the formerly great Pasta Post, who despite a couple of flashes has not recaptured pre-injury form.Veteran South Island galloper Inferno. Up and coming Undisclosed who is coming off his first Group 1 start and now looking at 2000m for the first time. Badly out of form stayer Back in Black, who is still looking at the Auckland Cup. Options, a South Islander who looked good in a couple of starts in Auckland and a third in a similar 2000m race at Te Rapa recently. Better Together a week removed from the Taranaki Cup (1800m) where 200m more might have helped. A former jumper who goes well fresh and showed good form prior to Christmas, Maythehorsebemagic. The often difficult to follow Miss Sharapova. Phantom Storm who may be looking for more distance but should be flying home. The Raconteur is a year removed from better form. The consistent Cat Woman who failed to fire last time stepping up to Open Handicap level. Finally the four year old Starcheeka who is improving with racing and will be well suited to 53kgs this weekend. There will be challenges, but he is definitely in with a chance, this 10 year old has been counted out before only to come back with a flash of his former brilliance. I think this race (if it happens as nominated) may come down to Starcheeka, Maythehorsebemagic, Options and Better Together, there are others who should be considered and Sir Slick is definitely one of those.
If Sir Slick is unable to secure a victory here the question will remain, will Sir Slick win another race? after all that he has given us, does it really matter?
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