What has changed since the Daimond Stakes?

What has happened in between the 2YO's we will see in the Group 1 Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes this season?

-On New Years Day, in the Eclipse Stakes, of runners competing in the Oaks Stud Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes the finishing order was Warhorse, Irish Rebel, Magic Shaft.

- Moving forward to January 21st in Wellington, the Little Avondale Stud Wakefield Challenge Stakes, we saw a finishing order of Irish Rebel, Liberating.

-The Karaka Million was run on the 29th of January, the finishing order was Warhorse, Choice Bro, Mai Guru.

-  Moving into February the 2YO division saw Choice Bro beat Lumiere Blue and Liberating in Taranaki in the Platinum Homes 2YO Classic.

- A week later was a big day at Matamata, we first saw the Reid and Harrision Slipper and watched Magic Shaft better Irish Rebel and Travino, which was the first time we saw a change in one of the major 2YO features since New Years Day. Later that day in the J Swap Contractors Matamata Breeders Stakes we saw them finish Rollout the Carpet, Liberating, Lady de Chine.

- Then in the seasons first 2YO Group 1 we the Haunui Farm Diamond Stakes at Ellerslie, they crossed the line Rollout the Carpet, Warhorse, Soriano, Travino, Choice Bro, and Mai Guru. Warhorse and Rollout the Carpet were reversed in the judges room, and there are question marks as to how her performance may have effected other runners, but it is clear looking at the Two year olds this year there have not been a lot of major shakeups (in these major races at least).

The question is will this change this weekend? The big difference is that they will be competing over 1400m.

Lets look at what we have seen over these seven races to date with the eleven horses who have competed against each other to try to create a ranking. This ranking wont take into account performance or magnitude of the race, simply a Rock, Paper, Scissors type breakdown.

The above table shows the evolution over time of who beat who and by roughly how much. The major change was in the Diamond Stakes because Choice Bro finished well below expectations and Travino finished much closer, that indicates to me that we are in for a close race.


What can explain these significant changes?

Travino was great before Christmas, if those results were taken into account he probably would have begun this table in a higher position, he might be getting fitter, and had claims he was interfered with in that last race.

Choice Bro's best result in the 2YO classic was left handed, the race Daimond Stakes was at Ellerslie Right Handed, he finished about 2.5 lengths behind Warhorse, about an additional length from the Karaka Million, not majorly significant, but does indicate some course and distance regression relative to Warhorse, particularly when you consider that Mai Guru was about 2.5 lengths behind in both races.


Who has excuses from that race?
Mai Guru raced about four wide for most of the event. If we really look at that finish, if not for the fright Rollout the Carpet would have probably won that race. Choice Bro was coming from deep and really never a chance but did make up ground. Warhorse was clearly effected by Rollout the Carpet, Mai Guru was effected by Warhorse, and Travino was effected by Mai Guru. Warhorse had continued interference, Travino and Mai Guru cut inside and Mai Guru was squeezed between Travino and Soriano.


What is different about this weekend's race?
It is 1400m, who might that help?
Rollout the Carpet, Warhorse, Soriano, Travino and Choice Bro all seemed to run out the 1200m very well, 1400m should suit. Magic Shaft looked suited, Irish Rebel could use more ground (Guineas winner in the Spring?).

The Fix is in!
We have the addition of Fix into the mix. What can we expect from this winner of two from two. She got up late to win her maiden over 1000m and then really used the extra 100m well to smash them at Ellerslie. 1400m should suit, she is a major player here.


Who might be better suited going Left Handed?
I think it is fair to include Choice Bro in here as a horse may improve going left, only because of the victory over Ockham's Razor following Ockham's Razors Karaka Million victory. We are generally looking at a small sample size but Warhorse's only "failure" was left handed at Te Rapa, Mai Guru looked good left and has not done as well right (in much tougher races), Rollout the Carpet has had one run right and we saw what happened (although it looked like a fright more than anything), Liberating best work has been left. It does not really look like there is too much to read into these results.


Will anyone benefit from the Awapuni Location?
Lady de Chine is trained at Awapuni, Liberating and Lumiere Blue are others with less distance to travel. Irish Rebel and Choice Bro are the only ones to run a race on the track, the finished first and second in the same race back in December.

Has any performance been effected negatively or positively by track conditions? (right now the track is Dead 4, there is no significant rain forecast).
You can make a case this will be the best track Travino has ran on since his return from Australia. Lumiere Blue was 9th of 9th on a track rated 4, if it improves so does his record. Liberating seems to improve with a bit more moisture around. Lady de Chine went very well on good tracks before the run in the Matamata Breeders Stakes which was Dead.

Any Barrier Draw Concerns?
Warhorse and Choice Bro should get good runs to suit with a lot of runners outside them battling for the lead. A few potential leaders, Irish Rebel (4) , Magic Shaft (7), possibly Mai Guru (1), Rollout the Carpet (6), Fix (9). I think Fix may be suited to get across outside the leader where he has been in other races, however there is definitely a chance the likes of Magic Shaft and Fix can get caught wide if too many move forward. Soriano might be unlucky to be out in 11. Liberating performed well leading last time from a good draw, has tended to go back without much success when drawn wider so 12 is unlucky.

Any odds stand out?
Choice Bro, Left handed, conditions will suit, raced on the track, may be better with the shorter gap between races. $14 is value.
Travino, may get better conditions, unlucky last time, winner on the track. $9 seems fair.
Lumiere Blue, should run into decent conditions, has performed well against these runners in the past, pretty consistent and probably a better chance than $26.
Fix is at $12, there are a few unknowns for her, so $12 is fair, but could be the surprise package.
Lady de Chine is probably a better chance than $26, but there are a lot to like more.

How do I see them finishing?
First - Rollout the Carpet - Should already have a Group 1 to her credit
Second - Choice Bro - Give the benefit of the doubt, I think we see a better performance
Third - Irish Rebel - Matamata breeders finish was strong, an improvement from the Wellington run, should be set for this.
Fourth - Travino - Went back and forth between Warhorse and Magic Shaft before realising that things may be aligning for a strong Travino performance here.

I am very unsure about fourth, if you are having a first four try to go as wide as possible.

To go back to the question at the top, has much changed since the Diamond Stakes? Clearly I think so.

James McDonald's Quest for the Cup week Sweep

This is now a story. There was always a possibility it would become one and in some ways the two Group 1's McDonald has won were the easier of the two he will face this week. They were the ones he was probably expected to win. In other ways they were harder, there was enough that went wrong before and during those races that the victories were remarkable. He will ride Scarlett Lady and Rollout the Carpet on Saturday in his quest to sweep the Auckland Cup week Group 1's.

James McDonald calls Ellerslie his favourite track. I don't think anyone would disagree with him. Durham Town, Silent Achiever, Fix, Peridot, Between the Beats, and Shez Sensational have won this Auckland Cup week with him on board. Fix was another in a long line of wins in the first race of the day at Ellerslie yesterday. His strike rate is currently a ridiculous 4.41, that should mean with the nine rides he currently has booked for Saturday there are two winners in that group, I am sure the ones he wants the most are the Diamond Stakes and the New Zealand Stakes.

The New Zealand Derby last Saturday, James McDonald was riding Silent Achiever. The ground was possibly not as suitable as they would have liked, there was not a lot of pace in the race for Silent Achiever a horse who typically likes to race towards the back of the pack. It was evident from the relief shown by Roger James when they interviewed him after the victory that although he felt he had the horse with the most talent, he was not sure if things were lining up exactly how he wanted. After the race James McDonald admitted he didn't ride exactly to instructions and Silent Achiever slipped leaving the gates, judging from the after race comments analysts felt that possibly Silent Achiever hit the front earlier than she normally would have. What I liked about the ride was the point about 1400m to go when she was third from last and James McDonald moved her up, three wide, but closer to the pace. As they hit the 800m mark there is probably only 9 runners ahead of him, it was an excellent place for him to be when they started the sprint for home. As it was she won comfortably, but if he had been further back who knows, maybe she gets blocked or simply out sprinted. He really seemed to always have that race under his control from about 350m, every time another runner battled closer he asked her for more and she gave it.

In the Auckland Cup yesterday, as trainer Allan Sharrock said in his interview after the race "what else could go wrong" (in the video in the link, you need to sign up to view it, but it is free). He even basically said that the rain that had started about an hour before the race had put him off having a big bet on the horse because of the uncertainty in the conditions. Given what we saw on Saturday it would be hard not to be concerned at that point. During the running of the race George Simon made several comments about the position of Shez Sensational. "the favourite's under a ride" was his call as James McDonald went to work on her about 450m to go, he was probably one of the first Jockeys to make a move in the race. He then had to work a bit to find a hole, but Shez Sensational responded when he finally did. George Simon mentions she is warming up as they pass the 300m mark, but she really hits her stride with about 200m to go and just had too much top speed chasing down Spiro on the line.

Clearly we are looking at a very talented Filly and Mare, but everything didn't go their way, and those were very strong rides to allow the horses to show their best.

Now the question remains, can he go four for four?

The next Auckland Cup week Group 1 is the first Group 1 for the Two year olds the Diamond Stakes over 1200m. James McDonald is riding equal second favourite Rollout the carpet. There is a lot of talent in this race when you look at Choice Bro, Warhorse, Travino, Silk Pins and Croatia amongst others.

Choice Bro has shown eye catching finishes in the Karaka Million (fourth) and winning over Ockhams Razor last start at Taranaki. He has had the benefit of good draws to date and has performed best on a good track, he may not have either on Saturday. The blinkers which came on last start seemed to make a difference. He will be finishing big, but probably down the outside as opposed to the inside as in recent starts.

Warhorse is having his first start in over a month, however he has tended to race with these kind of gaps to date in his career so that should not effect him. A Group 3 winner with talent, he really charged home in the Karaka Million. He is already establishing a strong record at Ellerslie and his win there on New Years day was on a rain effected track. He has the benefit of a better draw so might be able to start his run from a handier position this time.

Travino had his first start back in New Zealand in the Matamata Slipper two weeks ago. The dead track gave him only his second non-win in the New Zealand since his first start (on a slow track). That was his first start in about 6 weeks, his wins have come with 14days, 14days and 21days rest, so expect a better showing here. He has drawn barrier one which should allow him to stay handy $9 fixed odds seems pretty good value if the rain stays away.

Croatia is having his third start. After winning on debut he was able to show a big finish to behind Irish Rebel and Magic Shaft. He has to be confided a contender here.

Mai Guru is having his first start since his fifth in the Karaka Million. I was slightly surprised by that fifth, he seemed to outperform other horses who I might have expected better from. This race is just stacked and he will have to show improvement to finish ahead of Silk Pins, Choice Bro, and Warhorse.

Roof of Reckoning is a maiden runner who was able to show something at Matamata, hard to know if possibly wet ground might help. He looks reasonably talented, but there are some classy runners to beat here.

King Zeus is having his second start and will go from barrier 6. He seemed to improve with trialing and was favourite in his first start. He was beaten by Fix over 1000m, who went on to have a good win on Auckland Cup day. King Zeus showed good fight but was worn down late. I suspect he may be fitter for the run and 1200m may suit.

Rollout the Carpet for James McDonald has drawn 11, but is coming off a form line which looks the same in the race book (1 and 1 been the results of his last two runs). The second win was in the Matamata Breeders Stakes at Group 2 level. She has beaten the fillies, so the question becomes can she beat the boys too? She is good and has looked it in her last two starts. Wetness underfoot does not appear to be an issue. Barrier number 11 may not be a problem if she gets out as well as she has recently, she will want to be handy and in a position to lead them home.

Seleno was very eye catching at New Plymouth last start, she was wide and back and simply flew home. If the track is wet it will suit and you suspect that 2nd up may help. The draw should suit and if she is closer to them starting her run, look out!

Silk Pins was great in the Karaka Million. Before the Karaka Million her record is deceiving, she didn't get a lot of luck in those races. Was third in the Matamata breeders stakes and didn't look as good that day. Happy to give her a chance, but I have a concern on wet ground based on the slow track  New Years day at Ellerslie.

Soriano is currently undefeated. She was a winner late last week at Te Rapa. She is a bit of an enigma here, the win looked very good, but there is a lot of solid exposed form here.

Coat du Roan was good when 6th at Taranaki, was also unlucky when caught up by Ockham's Razor. Throw that race out and there is less to go on. She is almost certainly better than a $41 chance, but you could only take her on potential. Chateauneuf Dupape ran third in this race last year, as that is in the Rhone region maybe a horse called Coat du Roan can feature this year.

The Picks (I am assuming this forecast rain clears and we get back to a good or dead track)
First - Warhorse - This looks much more suitable than the Karaka Million.

Second - Rollout the Carpet - Looks talented, I have spent 1,500 words explaining how this could be Jame McDonald's week.
Third - Choice Bro - Like Rollout the Carpet the draw is a concern, there is no doubt of the talent. He will be coming on at the end.
Fourth - Seleno - Big finish, if she was 6th instead of 9th back she may have won, she will be closer from barrier 2.

In the New Zealand Stakes James McDonald will ride Scarlett Lady against a strong Group 1 field. Veyron is certainly the most dangerous after winning back to back Group 1's and showing that the step to middle distance is not so big after-all on Boxing Day, he loves this track and will be very hard to beat.

Veyron all but eliminated middle distance questions on Boxing Day. I also think his build up to this race has been far better than the build up to boxing day. He will handle all tracks so weather concerns should not be an issue.

Hold it Harvey is always consistent at Group 1 level. He came for them late when stepping back to 1600m at Otaki and was second to Shez Sensational at Te Rapa before that. This is a rare trip to Ellerslie and right handed, but he is hitting the strongest part of his campaign and he is better than when he was last here boxing day 2010.

Doctor Fremantle was good for a surprising third here on Boxing Day.  He didn't get a lot of breaks last time in Hamilton. This is a big ask but he is capable of running in the money.

Showcause has basically been weighted out of the Open Handicap level (although it would have been interesting to see him yesterday). Although he didn't come back the strongest at New Plymouth that is not surprising. He is yet to feature second up either, a stat which is countered by his strong Ellerslie record. He gets better third up, and you might expect he can do something here but not enough to win.

Vosne Romanee won this race two years ago and surprised for a place last year. His last two starts have actually shown a bit of a (relative) resurgence in the nine year old gelding. Don't completely dismiss for old times sake, but there are a lot of better places for your money.

Riomoral has been a big improver over the last couple of months. WFA Group 1 seems a bit optimistic, but the steps towards middle distance have suited him.

Postmans Daughter probably needed a run between the Darci Brahma and this and she got in over 1600m in a Group 1 at Otaki. That was never going to be the ideal race for her but this is definitely where she will look at home. She seems to respond better to 2000m+ and going right handed, drawn barrier 1 will help too. This race looks perfectly set up for her, but it is hard to see her beating Veyron or Scarlett Lady.

Lady Kipling performed very strongly over 1600m at Otaki. She had her first win at Ellerslie two starts back but has twice been fourth at Group 1 level. She has been very consistent recently and the move up to 2000m should put her in a good position.

Scarlett Lady will face her first big test since returning from injury. If this race was run in the spring she probably would have been sole favourite. She has had 1 run back for 1 win but this is tougher. 2000m will surely suit her and she wont mind any rain. She has always been consistent, it was really unfortunate to see injury derailing her spring because she really could have made some noise in Melbourne last year.

Inferno is making her first trip to the big city following a pretty strong run in Matamata last start. This will be a major test but the distance should suit and around 8th up should see her peaking. It is a big ask.

Shuka is trying to become the first 3YO to win an Open level Group 1 this season. Twice in his career he has backed up in under a week and he has run second both times. The step back to 2000m should assist his chances. He is an absolute winning chance here, but yet again he might just be facing too much talent, which has been the story of his career to date.

I hate to go chalk, but it is hard to look past the favourites in this race. Who will win? toss a coin, it could be that close. We have not seen a big Group 1 shock this year, The Party Stand was somewhat of a shock winning this last year.

The Picks
First - Veyron - It just feels like he has put in the work to establish himself as favourite. Winning back to back Group 1's. The 2000m looks right for him and that Ellerslie record is superb.
Second - Scarlett Lady - Can win this based just on class. I think she will take a couple more races to get back to her absolute best, not sure where that will be, Australia?
Third - Postmans Daughter - I think the return to right handed should suit enough for her to improve on the Waikato run.
Fourth - Lady Kipling - Talent on the rise, could be the Cup week shock.

That was tough, I switched 1 and two back and forth several times and also changed up third and fourth with the mares and Hold it Harvey. I think it would pay to keep them safe on the weekend.

Two Year Old Power Rankings the Pre Auckland Cup Week edition

This is the time of year when the 2YO's start racing for big stakes, taking on black type races and approaching that first of two Group One races in New Zealand for 2YO's. A lot has taken place on the track since my first edition of 2YO Power Rankings which was just after the Karaka Million.

The other significant change was off the track when the connections of Ockham's Razor decided to leave their colt in New Zealand to take on Group 1 races. It is significant because after winning the Karaka Million he clearly would have been number 1 on the first list. He was subsequently beaten by Choice Bro who was seventh on the initial list.

Without further ado, on to this weeks list

Dropped from Rankings: Hazel (6), Mai Guru (8), Hogwarts Express (9)
Honourable Mention: Hazel (hardest omission), Mai Guru, Hogwarts Express, Oasis Rose, Croatia (so impressive coming home), Lumiere Blue, Liberating
(10) Seleno (N/A) - Amazing finish at New Plymouth and was a very narrow third.Was racing consistently prior to Christmas. One to watch, particularly as the 2YO races increase to 1400m in distance.
(9) Travino (1) - He didn't seem to have the form he showed prior to Christmas. I would be willing to give him another chance as he was so strong early on in the season.
(8) Rollout the Carpet (N/A) - Looked a potential riser with the Matamata victory. Was handy and ran home well. Back to back wins, will be interesting to see how high she continues climb.
(7) Silk Pins (2) - Pretty good third on the weekend. The race was probably not as strong as the Karaka Million but she seemed to run home nicely once she got going. This is a big drop but it is a reflection of other performances. 
(6) Irish Rebel (5) - Was chasing down Magic Shaft on the weekend in a strong race. I thought it was an interesting run in Matamata. He raced wide and uncovered early and was towards the back of the pack. Having been to that race day in the past I know they get a big crowd, the crowd stretches down the side of the track, as Irish Rebel rounded the turn and down the straight he kept looking to the right (the crowd side), I am wondering if he was unsettled or distracted? It might be interesting to see him in blinkers. Either way he finished off strongly which is testament to his natural ability.
(5) Pussy Willow (4) - Hasn't raced since the last rankings, continues to look like a very strong 2YO contender.

(4) Warhorse (3) - Hasn't raced since the Karaka Million, he remains one of the top 2YO's in the country.
(3) Magic Shaft (10) - He beat a very good field in Matamata and was convincing. He looked to have that won well before the turn and really took off and sprinted for home in a well judged Michael Coleman ride.


(2) Choice Bro (7) - The natural second, a big win at Taranaki at Group 3 level, beating Ockham's Razor. He looked great winning too, finished off strongly, not sure if he will run in the Diamond Stakes the Manawatu Sires Produce or both, but I can imagine he will go very well over the 1400m on offer in the latter.
(1) Ockham's Razor (N/A) - He still deserves to be here, but will probably need to produce at Group 1 level to remain here. He was beaten by Choice Bro at Taranaki with a brilliant run from Choice Bro, however Ockham's Razor was all over the place and still almost won. It is hard to know what might have happened had he run straight and balanced over the last 400m, he seemed to interfere with other horses who may or may not have beaten him, but the balanced finish he produced with Craig Williams riding on Karaka Million night would have probably won that race.

20 Things to look forward to during Auckland Cup Week

Auckland Cup Week is nearly upon us, it will be an excellent week to celebration New Zealand Racing, although I will no doubt look more closely at some of the feature races as we get closer to the main event, here are a list of things you can look forward to during Auckland Cup Week at Ellerslie.

1. Infield Partying
There are really only a couple of race days a year where the track is packed to the point the infield is used, Saturday the 3rd of March (TV3 Derby Day) will be one of them. I recall last year cramming under a makeshift shelter in the infield with about a dozen friends only coming out to brave the conditions to restock alcohol, place bets and watch races, but it was great fun, very memorable. I eventually made a run to the grandstand to watch Jimmy Choux do his thing, but the party atmosphere in the infield is always a great time. Boxing Day 2011 had one of the biggest crowds I can remember seeing at Ellerslie, the infield was packed and people were having a great time. Ellerslie does a great job of putting on peripheral entertainment, this year featuring Kimbra, I have no idea who that is, but they sure seem to be pushing it.

2. James McDonald
Last year Opie Bosson had an amazing Auckland Cup Carnival, he rode Titch, The Party Stand, and Anabandana to victories in the Auckland Cup, New Zealand Stakes, and the Diamond Stakes taking out three of the four Group 1 races during Auckland Cup week. That seemed an amazing feat, well this year James McDonald has a chance to replicate that feat as pointed out in the Waikato Times. Can he do it will be a sub-story of Cup week, Silent Achiever is currently Derby favorite, Shez Sensational is looking very good for the Cup. The article talks about Scarlett Lady, and if that is favoured in the New Zealand Stakes, however it looks like it has been withdrawn from nominations (at least they are not listed in on the NZRacing Website), if that is the case you might assume she will be in Australia. The question remains, who will he ride in the remaining Group 1, he rode Choice Bro before Matthew Cameron rode him to victory in Taranaki, he rode Silk Pins in its last start before the Karaka Million, he has ridden Deakes and Toaist Master who are potential nominees. I have no idea who is likely to be in this race, or who he is likely to ride, however looking at some of the potential names you have to figure he is a good chance in that Group 1. Assuming Shez Sensational opts for the Cup and Scarlett Lady is not in the NZ Stakes, James McDonald will no doubt get a ride in this race, however looking at recent 2000m WFA races it is harder to see a likely favourite he might ride, so this may be the one which gets away, either way a possible Mcdonald-Sweep is something to look out for during Cup week.

3. The Nathan's Memorial
As discussed last week two of the last three Auckland Cup winners have come second in this race on Derby Day. This seemingly typical 2200m event will likely feature horses racing as a lead up for the cup against others who simply see it as a good value Open Handicap event.

4. New Zealand's Top Horses
Take away the 4 Group 1's and the handful of other races at listed level and above, the fields are stacked throughout the week, even the midweek meeting. Last year Veyron won a 1200m rating 90, he is now a three time Group 1 winner. High stakes are on offer all week which brings in the top horses from around the country.

5. The Telecom New Zealand Derby on TV3 Derby Day
A major feature of Auckland Cup week, and this year promises a number of contenders who all have their merits. Silent Achiever is the favourite, but there is a lot to like about Ocean Park, Zurella and Rock'n'Pop who I can see potentially taking it out. Shuka you would think would need some luck, and Travolta and Carick looked good in the Avondale Guineas. Don't sleep on any of the longer shots they have tended to feature in recent years, it is the Derby, anything can happen.


6. Something for everyone
Looking back at last year, over the 30 races there were essentially an even number from 1200m, 1400m, 1600m, and 21/2200m, as well as races over 1100m, 2000m, 2400m and 3200m. Again an even number of the maiden's, Rating 70, 80, 90 and Open level races, four races for 3YO's a couple for 2YO's and Fillies and Mares. Whatever you are into there is something for you, it also gives trainers and connections opportunity to find the right race for their horse to compete which should increase the racing excitement.

7. Sunline Vase You don't want to sleep on this potentially explosive event. It is a listed race for the 3YO Fillies over 2100m, but there should be some real talent on display. Look back at the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic a couple of weeks ago, some of those contenders will be on display in the derby, but it is evident that we have a talented group of 3YO fillies, many of these will be taking on this event before the Oaks in a couple of weeks, this is a race to keep an eye on.

8. A major Citywide event
There is certainly a buzz around Auckland leading up to derby day. Not a crazy buzz, this is not an All Black's game, but people are definitely aware it is on, there will be a significant turn out all three days. Auckland Racing Club does a good job promoting this event and making people aware of how fun a day at the races can be.

9. TV3's new Sponsorship
Telecom is a great Derby Sponsor, TV3 certainly has great potential to bring additional life to the event. I can imagine their sponsorship should see more coverage of races outside of the Trackside channels. I thought Sky TV did a great job on Karaka Million night, and although I will be at Ellerslie on Derby Day it will be interesting to see what TV3 can do showing off the sights and sounds.

10. A 3200m Group 1
A very unique event, yes it is annual, but still not a lot of these major staying tests in the country, this year's field is starting to look like it is a very solid one. The Stella Artois Auckland Cup is a race which dates back until 1874 (at least if Wikipedia is to be believed). It is really the great unknown, many of the runners who accept wont have started a race over 2400m, it will a great test of stamina, a big field will line up which will make it s tactical challenge, and a stunning sight for the spectators, there will be questions on every runner as they enter the parade ring, there will be no certainties. Look at the Current favourites, Shez Sensational, Booming, Single Minded, Titch and Six O'Clock News, some questions include distance, weight, distance, form, and consistency amongst others. The winner will see it as an opportunity to look at other Cup races in the future as well as adding a/another Group 1 to their resume.

11. An office sweepstake opportunity
Do you really need an excuse? if it is good for the Melbourne Cup why not the Auckland Cup, it is on in a lot of pubs, get the team together, set up a sweep, drink beers, have fun, it is a simple recipe.If you are the person in your office who is into racing, take charge, set it up.

12. Diamond Day Whip'n'Spurs
If you have not yet experienced a Whips'n'Spurs party you should make this the one. They are a great event, relatively cheap, filled with people all dressed up, you get a great view of the track, and can party all night. You can get your tickets here.

13. Fashion and Stuff
It is not what brings me to the races, but it does tend to attract a lot of Women, and that is never a bad thing. Whenever I can get a good group together to attend these major race days I get to witness how much time an energy females put into wardrobe, hair, makeup, accessories. They go crazy for this stuff and despite the frustration which accompanies making five outfit changes in a morning before the races they clearly enjoy it. I am not in a position to mock, I spend multiple hours studying form in the week leading up to the races and typically get less out of it. The best bit, have you see a woman try to walk in high heels after three bottles of bubbly in 25+ degree temperatures, it is fun for the whole family.

14. New Zealand Stakes
 What do you expect? Shez Sensational has won two Group 1 WFA races over 2000m this season, but take her out of it and this will be a wide open race. Look at the results we have seen this year in the Windsor Park Plate, the Spring Classic, the Captian Cook Stakes, the Zabeel Classic, the Darci Brahma International, and most recently the Otaki Group 1. We wont see Mufhasa, we most likely wont see Shez Sensational or Jimmy Choux, but you can see the quality these races are attracting and the mixed variety of results behind the winners. Veyron's plans are not certain, but given how well he went over 2000m on Boxing day, his love of Auckland and the form he is in, it could be an interesting race.

15. Changing the colours of the Jockey statue
Will we be seeing Titch's colours adorn the Jockey statue for another year? It is a quirky but awesome tradition at Ellerslie (and many other tracks), the winner of the Auckland Cup will have their colours painted on the statue in the back parade ring for the next year.

16. It is happening all over town
I don't want to get to carried away talking about the other codes, but Auckland Cup is not all about the Thoroughbred's. It is happening at Alexandra Park too, they actually kick it off this Friday night with their Oaks followed by their Derby/Cup night the following week, the details are here. If you are into the dag's (you like dag's?), they have their cup too, next Thursday night, details here.

17. Diamond Stakes
The first Group 1 for the Two Year Olds this season. It is shaping up like an outstanding one. The Two year olds have been going at each other this year, contenders are stepping up and then getting knocked down, it is fascinating stuff. I have no idea what to expect from this year group, it is not like there is a dominant Anabandana this year.
18. Enjoy a day in a beautiful park
Ellerslie is stunning, I was out there the other week for the Avondale Guineas day and the course and grounds are looking in excellent condition. You can essentially boil the day down to a picnic in the park, only with 20,000 other people. Even without the added entertainment, it is almost worth the price of admission just to enjoy the surroundings.
19. Midweek Racing of consequence
Having significant racing during the middle of the week is great. The Cup is at the perfect time to knock off work and head down to the pub, or if you are in the Auckland area just take the day off, a lot of other people will be. Better yet, arrange a 'team building' exercise and get paid to go to the races.

20. Leading international Jockeys
Craig Williams recently won the Karaka Million on Ockham's Razor, it is just another example of the success that international Jockey's have had when they venture to our shores. Cup week last year we saw wins from Jim Byrne, Douglas Whyte, Shane Scriven, other internationals Glenn Boss and Craig Williams riding here not to mention other Jockeys who were based in New Zealand who won that week like Mark Du Plessis, Jason Collett, Opie Bosson who are either overseas now or were at some point in the past 12 months riding. The prize money is not quite what is was last year, but there is still potential to see some internationals making the trip to New Zealand.

Two Year Old Power Rankings

What a great night the Karaka Million was. I was away for the weekend but luckily was able to find someone with Sky TV to watch the racing action. I started watching on Trackside (or TAB TV, I can never figure out which is which) and then switched over the Sky Sports to watch their coverage. I was very impressed with the coverage overall, it was excellent to follow one race meeting and really get a feel for what is happening on Track. I understand the economics of Trackside/TAB TV showing as many races as possible to give people a chance to bet, but when I generally bet from home I will watch one or two meetings and focus solely on one code so it was excellent to watch the racing all from one meeting and have detailed information about what was going on at the event.

The coverage on Sky was targeted towards people who were less experienced with the racing game which is fine to generate interest from these people; and given that it was the night for Karaka to shine they did focus on the sales trying to get people involved in racing which again is a good thing. My only complaint was the lack of graphics displaying information throughout the evening, but with my iPad in front of my this was not really a big deal (although it would be great to have an official TAB application).

The Karaka Million race was great, there was a lot happening throughout, the race probably didn't go to plan for a lot of the runners (including the winner from the sound of things), but the finish was excellent with Ockham's Razor chasing down Silk Pins wide on the track, surely it will give a positive lasting impression to those people tuning in who maybe don't spend a lot of time following racing.

I have been doing a Three Year Old Power Rankings for a few months now, but now I feel we have sufficient form to dust this gimmick off for the 2YO's in the first edition of my completely subjective 2YO Power Rankings. Some indication of the methodology is probably important, here is what I wrote in my second edition of the 3YO Power Rankings;

 "I guess what is required is a definition of 'Power' for the purpose of the power rankings, another thing I didn't do properly when I first attempted this. There is no formula, it is not the highest rated, nor are they a genuine indication of which 3YO would beat each other 3YO (all things been equal). I am applying an incredibly loose and very subjective definition of Power for these rankings will be an indication of my impression of a number of factors including

• Overall Record
• Recent Form
• Dominance of victories
• Form in 'big' races
• Form against other top 3YO (and older) talent
• Buzz (Media and Bookie)"

 Honourable Mention: Oasis Rose, Napatap
(10) Magic Shaft: Solid to date, debut was made at Group 3 level when he ran 3rd behind Warhorse and Irish Rebel, he followed this up with a second to Hogwarts Express, it is to early to say if that race will produce anything else of quality but the Group placing has a lot of merit at this point in the year.
(9) Hogwarts Express: Was 7th in the Karaka million, but this ranking is based on a body of work and performances up to this point, he was 3rd at Group 2 level, and consistently close prior to that.
(8) Mai Guru: 5th in the Karaka million, but together impressive performances prior to this he finds himself 8th in these rankings. He will continue to improve and should be more suited to 1200m next attempt.
(7) Choice Bro:  Ran home well in the Karaka Million for 4th, was chasing Silk Pins before having Warhorse and Ockhams Razor knock him down to forth, had a very impressive victory earlier on in the year.
(6) Hazel: Makes the list on the back of a strong second at Group 2 level. He showed a lot of fight down the straight and was beaten by a flying Pussy Willow.  Was 5th first start to Mai Guru and two others he went on to beat when he had a extra 100m in the race at Wellington.
(5) Irish Rebel: Was highly rated when he impressively won his first start. He has then put forward strong performances at Group level finishing second to Warhorse and forth to Pussy Willow.
(4) Pussy Willow: Undefeated in two starts including a win at Group 2 Level. She wound up brilliantly down the home straight to win against a big field.
(3) Warhorse: Despite having won only one of his four starts he has not been far away in the other starts. The 6th in the Wentwood Grange Stakes wasn't as bad as it looked and he was favourite for the Karaka Million up until the last few minutes.
(2) Silk Pins: She was half a length away from winning the Karaka million which should add to the hype, however the results before this add up to keep her this high on the list. She has beaten Warhorse twice now (in three meetings) and Travino once (in two meetings, and may have beaten him the second time with luck),. She was also able to overcome a lot of other good Two Year Olds on the weekend.
(1) Travino : He has to be number 1 at this point. He benefits from not facing a few of the other contenders over the last couple of months. He has won two at listed level and travelled to the Gold Coast for the Magic Millions, despite coming 12th in that event he has the results and hype to top this list.

It is still early in the year, 2YO's are still starting their campaigns, we have two Group 1's for this age group, it will be interesting to see who emerges over the rest of the summer and into the Autumn.

Karaka Millions Preview

It is Group 1 Thorndon Mile weekend and I choose to preview a listed race? well in this case that race happens to be the Karaka Million and it is currently New Zealand's richest race.

How do you preview a race when the most experienced horse will be having their 6th start? how do you bet on a race when the TAB currently has seven horses between $5 and $9? I am not sure, but I am about to find out. The advantage is that via the NZ Racing site it is possible to quickly watch film on every runner to help your decision.

This is an excellent event, it is great having it on a Sunday night of a long weekend in Auckland. You have a nice punchy six race quality card with two feature races for Karaka Graduates. It is also an excellent way for Karaka to preview their upcoming sales which begin next Wednesday.

It will come as no surprise to anyone who is reading this, who also happens to live with me, that I enjoy the Karaka sales (that is a short list, but still a valid point is coming), Trackside has excellent coverage of the sales, it is always fun to sift through the catalogue and guess prices and to literally watch people spend millions of dollars in a matter of minutes, the coverage lets you feel involved. I must congratulate Karaka on their use of technology, they have an excellent website and the iPad available catalogue is great (and must be even a better tool for those actually attending), I have ranted at great length about how use of technology could increase the fan experience, so I have to praise when someone is making good use of it.

(1) Warhorse: Has the horror draw, he will most likely end up in the outside barrier (unless there is two scratchings), however I would have felt the same about Guiseppina's draw heading into last weekend. At Ellerslie over 1200m a winner has come from barrier 14 only 5% of the time, if he ends up in barrier 13 that percentage increases to 10% (which feels like a statistical quirk from a lowish sample size, I am not sure how often either barrier is used over that distance). Warhorse is a winner of one of his three starts, the win did come in Auckland at Group 3 level, he won impressively despite sitting three wide throughout, he really showed an explosive next gear over the last 150m. Prior to that in Hamilton he got away slowly, looked to have something happen at about 500m out, and then got pushed wide on the turn, but again he seemed to come home well over the last 200m. I can imagine for him to win this he will have to come from wide and most likely the back half of the field, it will be tough, but with that big finish he is capable.

(2) Silver City: The Stephen McKee trained Silver City has been freshened since his 8th in the Wentwood Grange Stakes (indecently he was the one pushing Warhorse wide on the corner), he did win his first two starts. I think we are more likely to see the horse we saw winning in October at Trentham, but that track was very wet that day, while there is not a lot of evidence to claim that maybe he just handled the conditions better than most, it may well prove to be the case. 

(3) Ockham's Razor: Ironically in a race with as little exposed form as this we may be applying Ockham's Razor to make our decision, unfortunately that logic will count against this horse, just due to how little we know about it. You have to be weary of any horse who is brought over from Australia for this race, but potentially Sell in May is the one you should be more weary of given what we know.

(4) Green Wings: Winner of his last two, including a course and distance win two weeks ago, in that performance he also beat three of his competitors in this race. All four of those competitors in that race possibly have excuses as to why it was not their best performance, but Green Wings and Freedom both  have more positives to take away. Green wings looked far more comfortable winning two starts back, again beating another competitor he will face in this race. He will most likely push forward from barrier 11, he has got out of the barriers well in starts to-date so I would not expect him to have any troubles getting to the lead.

(5) Freedom: If you look past the poor start when beaten course and distance you will see a strong finish. Prior to this our second of three McKee runners beat two other horses nominated for this race at Ellerslie, in that race he got away better but didn't look too comfortable following runners, he accelerated into a gap at about the 300m and then really took off into a gap with about 100m to go. More experience should help, but in this size field from barrier 10 (or 9 depending on scratchings), he will find it hard to avoid traffic, it almost seems like he would be more comfortable racing wide uncovered, he seems to have a motor which will see him hitting the line well, but it will depend on where he is and how much energy he has spent to get into that position.

(6) Taoist Master: The first of our John Sargent horses in this race (there is still a possibility there might be five), I just get the impression that this is a race John Sargent badly wants to win (I am sure all trainers want that), there have just been a few things I have read over the past 18 months or so that would indicate he is always searching for runners who can compete in this and win it; and I am sure it will be no different at the sales next week. He is having an outstanding season to date and he has some big chances here. As for this horse if you choose to take it you will have to forget about that last start performance, luckily if you look at the first start you will be impressed. Taoist Master really looked comfortable stretching out over the last couple of hundred meters and James McDonald really let the horse do most of the work. That horse looks like a winner, the one from two weeks ago does not.

(7) Mai Guru: Was narrowly beaten by Freedom in his first start. He has had another start for a win since. He actually looked good in both races and seemed like he had more experience than a 2YO with two starts. He carried 58kgs last start under handicap conditions, so should actually get relief with the 2YO set weights. Barrier two should suit, he will get out of the gate well and probably track Green Wings coming from wide out.

(8) Choice Bro: Was a winner here during the Christmas carnival, he was highly favoured then and showed class winning comfortably. His first start was probably a fair indication, he was shuffled back beyond midfield and worked home well, not explosively, but steadily accelerating and chasing home Irish Rebel who was simply too good. Barrier four should suit and he should be able to be handy enough following the leaders.

(9) Deakes: Was beaten at Group 2 level on the weekend by Hogwarts Express (who has been beaten by Green Wings), and Irish Rebel (who beat Choice Bro recently), those results point to other options in this race. However, when you look at the video and the stewards comments maybe he has an excuse, he looked to recover and come home well, but I am not sure there is enough to recommend him here. He looked better in his first two starts in smaller fields down south, but this is tough.

(10) Sell in May: Our first filly and second visitor from Aussie. She is a winner in Melbourne and looked good testing Auckland the other day. There seems to be good buzz around this horse and she is rightfully one of the favourites. She seems to have a big finish which should suit in her first attempt over 1200m.

(11) Silk Pins: This horse has beaten Warhorse and Travino, not too many in New Zealand can say that. It was a fighting run and I remember been impressed at the time. She went on to place at listed level (this time behind Travino), it was an impressive and patient performance where she was inside Travino for most of the race, he got the run early and she had to work a lot harder for it, but really came hard for them at the end. Her most recent start was a 6th at Group 3 level on New Year's day (the race won by Warhorse), she was back (possibly bumped) and searching for a run which never came. Barrier 14 (which will probably move in one by the race start) shouldn't be an issue, she will be off the pace and likely off the rail, which could benefit and allow for a clear run at the finish.

(12) Hogwarts Express: A real enigma; that seems counter-intuitive as we have more footage on this filly than any other in this race. Her form has been consistently solid, but she seems to have matched up against a few of the top 2YO's (and other competitors here) and come off second best. She looked good at Group 2 level on the weekend, and I think she is getting better. She actually reminds me a bit of Duckworth Lewis, a horse who raced solidly as a 2YO with limited success then came on as a 3YO. Following that trajectory remains to be seen, but I feel like she has been discounted too easily here, however when I look for reasons to pick her I struggle to find them.

(13) Marechal: Has won one from three starts, no one he beat that day has really gone on to do much since, two of the horses she beat went on to come 4th and 5th in the Wentwood Grange Stakes (beating runners in this race), but that is it. She fought well for the win that day. Her last start was a distant 4th to Warhorse and Irish Rebel, I think she would need an improvement on that to feature here.

(14) Dreamcoat: Another horse we know a bit about. You really need to forget the last start if you are trying to convince yourself to put your money on this horse, Trudy Thornton who rode her that day said that she didn't handle the track conditions (which was Dead), and there is probably merit to that as her only other race day failure was also on a dead track. In races to date she has been beaten by Silk Pins, Warhorse, Green Wings, Freedom, and Taoist Master. However she was able to beat rival Hogwarts Express on a good track. Her victory on the course was impressive, but again none of the horses she beat have gone on to blow us away since. Barrier 6 may actually be difficult for her, their is probably speed inside her and outside her, she looked good leading but may have to follow here, she will be handy but I find it hard to see her winning.

Now to make a selection, I have just basically made a case for all of the runners and this is a weird race; there is a lot at stake and there are inexperienced horses who can potentially hamper others, so it is very hard to make a selection.

Who have I ruled out? Warhorse (barrier has put me off), Silver City (this seems a bit tough), Freedom (too erratic to recommend), Deakes (put off by the last start), Hogwarts Express (can feature, but hard to see it winning), Marechal (this field seems to strong), Dreamcoat (on a good track it is possible, but again the field is maybe too strong).

First: Sell in May - I rate the Melbourne form coming into this.
Second: Green Wings - I think he will be our leader
Third: Silk Pins - Will be coming home strongly
Forth: Warhorse - Too good not to be involved
Fifth: Taoist Master - I would include this in multiples and hope to get a performance like its first start. 

Predicting every 2012 Group 1 winner

Sorry, I have been a little quiet recently. I have basically been away since Boxing Day races (which was an awesome day by the way), and my house was broken into prior to Christmas and all three TV's in the house were stolen (which makes it difficult to comment on racing you cannot see), the last thing I wrote was not even for this site, it was for The Punters Forum. I am now back and ready to look forward to another excellent year of racing in 2012.

We are just days away from what is shaping up to be a exciting Telegraph Handicap, so I thought I would pick a winner... I decided I would also try to pick a winner for each of the remaining Group 1 races in New Zealand this season, and the ones next season until the end of 2012 (assuming the World is still here). Obviously, I don't know who will be nominated, the conditions, or what the field may look like, but it should be fun anyway (particularly fun to look back on this and see just how far away I am).

The Date:1 January 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Railway Stakes
My Prediction: Atomic Force
The Reasoning: Ok, maybe I have cheated on that one since it happened 19 days ago.

The Date:21 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Telegraph Handicap
My Prediction: Durham Town
The Reasoning: While I think this is the kind of race which could produce an unexpected winner. I like a few of the horses in this race, but I think the weight relief from the Railway will help. Guiseppina and The Hombre may struggle from their draws. Atomic Force is currently the deserved favourite. To go a bit longer in the odds I like the look of Eight Shillings if he makes the field (and I suspect he will).

The Date:28 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Thorndon Mile Handicap
My Prediction: Dating
The Reasoning: Tough race, Platinum Princess has certainly proved herself, Hold it Harvey seems to like Wellington, and I like the looks of Smoulder and Banchee also, but this looks like the kind of race which could suit Dating and she should compare well with the other contenders in terms of weight.

The Date: 11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Darci Brahma International Stakes
My Prediction: Shez Sensational
The Reasoning: Who is currently the best middle distance WFA horse in the country? After the impressive Zabeel Classic win Shez Sensational certainly has to be considered. Will Jimmy Choux be back from his lay off for this, hard to say.

The Date:11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: International Sprint
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: The defending champion. While he might be out-weighted in the Thorndon Mile and the Telegraph Handicap, WFA conditions should suit Mufhasa here. Obviously, I have no knowledge of when Jimmy Choux might return, but if he does come back for an Autumn campaign this race might be a logical starting point to build up and maybe attack the NZ stakes on Diamond Day during Auckland Cup week.

The Date:25 February 2012
The Location: Otaki
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Otaki WFA
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: Maybe he will be looking to head over to Australia for another shot at a Group 1 so who knows, but last years efforts over 1600m show he can win this type of race over 2000m.

The Date:3 March 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Derby (3YO)
My Prediction: Knight's Tour

The Reasoning: I have not really seen a clear cut derby favourite emerge as yet, there also does not appear to be a 3YO who is so talented that they will win this despite not looking like a stayer. A horse like Duckworth Lewis might appeal, but while he is listed on the NZ Racing site he is not on the TAB. Rock'n'Pop, Planet Rock, Artistic, and Shanghai Bund all appeal, but Knight's Tour's win in the Great Northern Guineas is my pick until I get to see the Avondale Guineas and reassess the situation.


The Date:7 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 3200m
The Race: Auckland Cup
My Prediction: Scarlett Lady

The Reasoning: Whilst I enjoyed the New Zealand Cup, it is hard to say if it is a guide to anything you might expect to see here. I think the usual suspects are going to be interesting in this race. I think Scarlett Lady had the class to go well in Melbourne last spring and should be a force in this race.

The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Diamond Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Who is the top 2YO in the country? who will be the top 2YO in March? Who will win this race? those questions probably have three different answers. I have to go with the class 2YO at the moment, but this could be won by a horse who has not even had a start yet.

The Date:10 March 2012

The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: New Zealand Stakes
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: I think he will be back, he is still the best and should win this type of race.


The Date:17 March 2012

The Location:Wellington
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Oaks (3YOF)

My Prediction: Silent Achiever

The Reasoning: I have been on this horse as an Oaks winner since I saw her run at Twlight Races, I was impressed by the flying finish again on Boxing day at Group 2 level, she then won over 2000m at that level (albeit on a rain effected track with a limited field). She is the favourite at this stage and deservedly so.

The Date:31 March 2012

The Location:Manawatu
The Distance: 1400m

The Race: Manawatu Sires' Produce Stakes (2YO)

My Prediction: Travino

The Reasoning: Have to keep with who looks good at this stage even though this may change by the end of March.

The Date:7 April 2012

The Location: Te Aroha
The Distance: 1600m

The Race: New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (F&M)

My Prediction: Twlight Savings

The Reasoning: Is it just me or does something strange tend to happen in this race most years? We have such a good crop of fillies and mares around at the moment that this should be a very interesting race with a tight betting market.

The Date:14 April 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Easter Handicap
My Prediction: Vincent Street
The Reasoning: I figure a 3YO is winning an Open Group 1 this year, while it is most likely that would win a WFA race the fact that this is a handicap is not unprecedented (Time Keeper last year). It will probably be a horse who goes well on the track, a horse who can handle a wet track (we had a wet Christmas, we are probably getting a wet Easter; sorry to be pessimistic) and one who is not weighted out of it by performances in other Group 1's. Therefore Vincent Street who is currently rated 72 is my pick.

The Date:Late August
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Makfi Challenge Stakes
My Prediction: Antonio Lombardo
The Reasoning: I can't find a Group 1 this season this horse will win, I think 1400m is a strong distance for him and he was so good in the Spring last year.

The Date:September
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Windsor Park Plate
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: If Jimmy is headed for another Cox Plate attempt I can see him defending his crown in this race on his home track first.

The Date: October
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 2040m
The Race: Spring Classic
My Prediction: Knight's Tour

The Reasoning: It is too easy to pick Jimmy Choux again, although I feel he will win this I am going to pretend he does not start this race and pick another horse.



I am going to skip making selections for the two Guineas races and the Levin Classic, who knows what the crop of 3YO's will look like by next spring?


The Date: December
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Captain Cook Stakes
My Prediction: Banchee
The Reasoning: I figure a lot of the top milers will be rested after an Aussie spring campaign. This might come down to a horse who has not won a Group One, maybe a horse who is improving to reach this level of contention, maybe even a horse who might not be proven over 1600m yet. Even looking through the list of noms for the Thorndon Mile this year it is hard to know which milers might fit this mold in 11 months time.

The Date:Boxing Day 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Zabeel Classic
My Prediction: Veyron
The Reasoning:Clearly loves Ellerslie, he held up well in this race last year despite it been his first attempt over the distance, another year of possibly taking on more 2000m races and I think he is ready to take this.