Weekend Highlights

Technically I don't think these are highlights since they are yet to occur, but there is certainly a lot to look forward to on both sides of the Tasman this weekend.

The Aon Insurance Brokers Handicap in the Hawkes Bay will see a lot of top Sprinters make their return for the Spring and Summer., several of the returning runners including Ginner Hart, Aspinal, and Capone have solid first up records to consider. This race will also feature the return of notable 3YO's for their 4YO season, Ginner Hart, Pellegrini and Capital Diamond. You would think the drop back in distance should suit Fritzy Boy, but there are others at lower weights who look a big threat. The Hombre is Group 1 Placed over this distance, he opened as favorite, good conditions on his home track will make him hard to beat even at 58kgs. Baby Guinness looks a danger stepping back into Handicap conditions, she was consistently solid last season, and will enjoy the step back from Group 1 class.

1. Baby Guinness ($7.50)
2. Ginner Hart ($4.50)
3. The Hombre ($4.20)
4. Capital Diamond ($10)

The Gold Trial Stakes is always a good  race, they have a top field assembled which should prove a good gauge on form of the filled heading to the guineas. Kate was a very impressive winner here on the first day, and the fact she is paying $8 at the moment is a good indication of the quality of this race. Roll out the Carpet, was relegated from a Group 1 victory as a 2YO, but her win in the Matamata Breeders stakes is still the most impressive victory of any runner in this race - in terms of stature of the race. Fix was very highly regarded on her return run, and this could be a good sign for the chances of A Touch of Ruby who was narrowly beaten in that race. Soriano was solid in both 2YO Group 1's, again she was not far off Fix first up this season. The well named Waterford (I see what you did there) was better than solid late in the 2YO season. Cassie May was consistent at age two, she is already having her third start at age three, this is tougher, but the step up to 1200m should be an assistance. Oasis Rose is back after a long lay off, she showed ability at age 2, but it is hard to know what to expect. Pure Elegance is the favourite, re-watching that start you can see why, I have not seen the trial, but It must have been very impressive. Coastal Express is another who is back for a second start since May. Meleka Bella is stepping up in grade as a recent winner.

1. Pure Elegance ($3.20)
2. Kate ($8)
3. Fix ($6)
4. Rollout the Carpet ($6.50)

The Stayer's come out in the PGG Wrightson Premier, they will be aiming for the third day and beyond to the New Zealand Cup. Carrick is the favourite at very short odds, it is hard to see why based on his last start, and he will carry a kg more, however more distance and better ground will help, but he is nearly impossible to have at $2.80. Back in Black was very impressive on the first day, 2000m will be more suited, but his form was very up and down last year and he will carry more here. Flemington will be looking for this extra distance, he will be also down in weight, but he probably needs a couple more starts before you see him as a winning chance.  Herman Munster enjoys the track and distance and might be a bit of value in the wet, unfortunately it looks dry on Saturday. Pero looks a good chance on paper and on the recent victory, but he is probably slightly under good value here.
Rumour Has It Now has been very consistent and looks a very good light weight chance. Seaflyte has never done much in the Bay, but this feels like the kind of race he could win, the weight looks right, the distance should suit, the conditions will be favourable, and the competition is not the hardest, he was second in this race last year carrying 54kg on a good track paying $21 coming off a 10th first up... the winner of that race was Back'n'Black.

1. Seaflyte ($18)
2. Pero ($5)
3. Back'n'Black ($8)
4. Rumour Has It Now ($14)

A note on Carrick - Whenever I see odds of $2.80 after a race like Carrick had two weeks ago I start to suspect there is something that I don't know or don't see.It is possible that Carrick is simply the class in this race, certainly he will be more favoured in these conditions and over 2000m. Frankly, I thought he was a bit overrated last year, I was shocked with the 3rd in the Derby, he was generations behind Silent Achiever, and his two wins have been for $5k and $13k. I would not be shocked to be proved wrong here, but either way it is hard to bet on him at $2.80.

Onto the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate, all I have are questions. Can Mufhasa bounce back with the step up to 1600m? Will Justanexcuse regress to the norm? How will Green Supreme handle WFA conditions this time? Who is special days? Will Special Days have more luck returning to New Zealand than other runners in the past? Was it only track conditions that have hurt He's Remarkable in recent starts? Can Fears Nothing break the 2nd up duck when in form? Everything is lining up nicely for a strong Shez Sinsational performance, is 1600m too short? How much of Fleur de Lune's last start performance was bad luck? Is Guiseppina a sprinter or a miler? (Postman's Daughter) Where would Full of Spirit rate in this field? How much difference will 2kg and 400m make to Villifye? Is this Xanadu's race to lose? Will the dry surface hurt Innovation's chances?

1. Xanadu ($4.50) - Too eye catching last start to turn down
2. Guiseppina ($6) - 200m more last time would have seen her close
3. Mufhasa ($4) - Still capable of winning this

4. Fleur de Lune ($16) - has the Group 1 1600m record


A note on Mufhasa - I think he can win this, I have not picked him to do so. I have picked him for third, but I would be surprised to see him finish third. If he is at his best and still has the ability to win these races, then he will win on Saturday. If he is not, probably there are several others who may finish ahead of him, and he may find himself 6th or 7th. I think he still has it, so I have included him, but this will be a good indication.

A note on Shez Sinsational and He's Remarkable - Conditions, Conditions, WFA?. Too Short, Too Short, Conditions, Luck?. Those are valid excuses for the recent performances of He's Remarkable first and Shez Sinsational second over their past 3/4 starts. I do have a question mark over He's Remarkable at WFA on Saturday, and I do have a question mark over Shez Sinsational at 1600m. Bad luck can strike at any time, but on Saturday I would expect to see better performances from both of these runners, at 1600m Shez Sinsational should be running on strongly and could grab a place. He's Remarkable has won carrying more than the 53kg he carried in the Railway, but I am starting to suspect he might be a tad overrated.

I still have no idea on this race, I like Xanadu, and could talk myself into any one of about 6 other runners for 2nd through 4th. My first draft had Xanadu, He's Remarkable, Fleur de Lune, and Mufhasa as the first four. I can also see Postman's Daughter, Villifye and  Shez Sinsational going well.

Melbourne
Underwood Stakes
The winner here could become the Cox Plate second favourite. Ocean Park's first Aussie start, it will be very exciting. It is hard to go past Manighar after the last start second, he would have won if that race had gone another 5 meters and really killed them with another 200m. December Draw was possibly slightly unlucky in that race, but probably not unlucky enough to see him winning this, although 200m will help.I have never been a big fan of Sincero in Melbourne, that may change if he continues his recent form, I still see it as hard to have at $5 despite the quality of the Memsie field he beat.  I would expect to see better things from the likes of Illo, Maluckyday, Mawingo, and Niwot. Drunken Sailor could figure fresh. There are also the imports to consider.

I think Manighar will take this out, but it should be a good race with a lot of runners to note. Ocean Park for Second, Southern Speed will be close and Mawingo to round out my first 4. However I think I still need to get by bearings on these runners.

The day in Melbourne is great with the 1000 Guineas Prelude. Single Minded and Zurella in the Naturalism, excited to see Zurella again. Then we get another look at Mosheen in the last.

Sydney
Its a Dundeel and other Derby hopeful 3YO's start off the day in Sydney. Three races later we will see more 3YO's on display in the Group2 Tea Rose.

I would expect a far better effort from Quintessential in the Group 1 George Main Stakes, but this is tougher. All Too Hard is carrying nothing, secret Admirer was very good in the last couple of races, and Danleigh was a very impressive winner last start. There are many others who can figure, it is sure to be a great race.

I thought Mourayan was very good last start, this is tough, but there looks to be some value at $7. Lots of other runners here who will be heading to the big spring races, this is one to watch.

What have we learned this Spring? (1st Edition)

It is springtime, you wouldn't know it if you looked out the window, but trust me it is. Spring racing is underway, and with big races ahead it is important to look back and reflect on what we saw on the weekend.
 
Ocean Park

Seems like the logical place to start. The best thing about the stunning performance on Saturday is that he probably had excuses as to why it was not his best performance, he should improve from this point as well. At Hastings on the weekend most winners were coming from the front part of the field and not a lot were making up ground from the back, while OP didn't drop back as far as he has in past runners from his handy draw, he made ground to win with a stunning turn of foot. He will be better over more distance, he will be better on good ground. It was a great ride from Lisa Allpress and he didn't get all the favours in the straight. He will improve.

Current Odds
Cox Plate $14; Caulfield Cup $16

Mufhasa

Not sure what to make from his performance, he came into a very strong favourite before the start. Khemosabi challenged him and he faded over the last 100m or so. I did notice that Sam Spratt dropped her whip at some point in the straight, it is hard to make out on the replay on the NZ Racing site. It is impossible to know if it made a difference, but I cannot imagine it helped. I am sure we are not done with Mufhasa in Group 1's and make sure to keep him safe over 1600m in the Windsor Park Plate.

Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5

Xanadu

Another eye catching finish and another who should improve with more distance and from that run. She is a big strong 4YO mare who almost certainly must have Australian aspirations. She was another who came from deep to perform against the way most runners were performing on the day. She has already had strong form over 1600m and it would not surprise to see her win over 2000m, she is very capable of winning the Winsor Park Plate and/or Spring Classic.

Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5; Spring Classic $5

Justanexcuse

So close to the upset on the weekend, a great ride and good tactics almost got him there. 1600m has been a tough distance for him since October last year, with most attempts against Group 1 level competition. It was a good performance, but it would be surprising to see him go two better in the Windsor.

Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $21

Guiseppina

Another encouraging performance. She came at them late to finish fifth. Her best results have all been between 1200-1400m but she is capable at 1600m. Are the connections looking at another trip to Australia this spring? A good performance in the Windsor may be needed if we are to consider her better than the 15th in last years Myer Classic.

Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $7

Time Keeper

Wins generally have come after 10 starts, he out performed his expectations but it would surprise for him to show up like that again in two weeks.

Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $41: Spring Classic $41

Green Supreme

Had a fairly sweet trip for a runner who was 3 wide, the cover from Baby Guinness was important. You are probably going to like him more over 1600m and even more over 2000m, so the fast finish was important, a good track may have seen him closer. There is a lot to like moving forward and he may even offer some value in the Windsor as Xanadu, Mufhasa, and Guiseppina attract attention.

Current Odds
Windsor $7; Spring Classic $5

Fleur de Lune

Probably didn't live up to expectations, but possibly didn't get the smooth trip you might have expected from that draw. It looked like she was blocked a couple of times in the straight just as she was trying to make her run, hard to know how much it hurt her performance, but it did get a mention in the Stewards report. I am not sure she is better suited to 1600m, but she is certainly capable.

Windsor $15; Classic $31

He's Remarkable

He has now had 3 straight performances to forget, but the last two have been on dead tracks, and Saturday's was upgraded from Slow not long before the race. 1600m is where he will be at his best, so he is worthy of another look. With a couple of trips to Aussie under his belt it would not be unexpected to see a return, but I cannot imagine the Cox Plate as a realistic location based off that performance.

Windsor $8; Classic $10; Cox Plate $101

3YO's

I certainly liked what I saw from Kate over 1200m in the first from the bay. It looks like she has improved from age 2 and won a tough race. Dorian Grey came home well into second which was worth noting, It will be interesting to see these two again. In Tauranga Kate's stablemate Perfect Start made a perfect start to her racing career winning while making up a lot of ground on the straight.

Civics Rock/Villify

Also at Tauranga Civics Rock was very impressive finishing off strongly to dominate a small field with some talent. Villify will need to take a lot of improvement from that run to feature in the Windsor, 1600m is certainly more suitable and he did finish reasonably strongly, still $13 seems a little short.

Windsor $13 (Villify)

Back In Black

A strong win over 1600m, he seems to go well in Hastings at this time of year, 2000m should suit, but he was fairly inconsistent last year. Still at $41 in the Spring classic he is certainly not the worst on offer, I imagine he will have a run on the Second day, so he is one to watch.

Spring Classic $41

No Excuse Maggie/Smoulder/Platinum Passion/Intransigent

Not a whole lot to write home about from this Group 1 nominated bunch. Intransigent had to do too much work. No Excuse Maggie seemed a bit keen, but got a good trip. Platinum Passion had a sweet trip and ran on a bit. Smoulder ran home well. We probably wanted to see a bit more from this bunch of runners if they are going to go on to have Group 1 success. The eye-catching performance was from Amberio who has been quietly successful over the past 12 months plus, she is one to look out for next start.

Current Odds
Windsor
No Excuse Maggie $41
Smoulder $61

Spring Classic
Intransigent $101
Platinum Passion $101

Two more winners who were very good on the day were Papilo and The Knight. No idea where they may be heading, but it is worth having a look when you see them.

Quick Aussie Notes
How long will Pierro remain undefeated and how many Group 1's will he win in Melbourne this Spring? last seasons star 2YO continued his winning streak on route to the Caulfield Guineas and possibly the Cox Plate. He was challenged by Your Song who was impressive, and also beat All Too Hard who missed 3rd by a head bob and finished 5th. All Too Hard and Pierro no longer have a rivalry, Pierro is established as clearly superior.

Current Odds
Golden Rose
All Too Hard $7.50
Your Song $9 (might be unlikely to start I think I heard on Saturday, so do your research)
Epaulette $9
Ninth Legion $16

Cox Plate
All Too Hard $51
Pierro $6

Glencadam Gold won over 1800m against a range of cups possibles, but hard to read too much into it this far out. If you liked it there are still very good odds available for both big cups.

In Melbourne Sincero won the Memsie Stakes. I always look at this as the first race to consider as runners build to the big three. Sincero was very strong in Sydney last spring before heading to Melbourne and probably been a bit outclassed, this looks like a sign of improvement. This was a pretty Strong field which included Green Moon (2nd 2011 Caulfield Cup), Wall Street, Maluckyday (2010 2nd Melbourne Cup, Lexus winner), Heart of Dreams (Group 1 winner, second in Memsie last year),  Rekindled Interest (3rd Mackinnon and Cox Plate last year), Niwot (Lexus winner 2011, Sydney Cup winner 2012), Sanagas (nothing to see here just yet), and Midas Touch (3rd Underwood, 3rd Makybe Diva last year). There is a lot to consider from that race.

Current Odds
Sincero - Cox Plate $16, Caulfield Cup $41
Green Moon - Cox Plate $21, Caulfield Cup $14, Melbourne Cup (pre noms) $18
Wall Street - Cox Plate $101, CC $81
Maluckyday - Cox Plate $81, CC $31, MC $26
Heart of Dreams - CP $101
Rekindled Interest - CP $12
Niwot - CP $151, CC $41, MC $41
Sanagas - CP $101, CC $51, MC $51
Midas Touch - CP $201, CC $61, MC $81

Probably not a lot to worry about just yet, but good to monitor.

Makfi Challenge Stakes Preview

Wow, the first Group 1 of the Season, does this feel early to you? where has the winter gone. September 1 is actually slightly later than it has been over the past few years, last time the race was in the month of September was back in 2007 when Seachange won the second of her two back-to-back Mudgway's (as it was then known), can Mufhasa defend his title 5 years to the day?

There are a lot of unknowns at this point in the season, who will come back strong from a winter off? who will continue their winter form into this higher level of racing? which 4 year old is going to step up and build on their 3YO form? and are we going to see the same old vintage Mufhasa? if we are this race may already be over. Looking at the odds on offer $4.40, the TAB is unsure what to expect. They are almost as uncertain as the rain forecast over these next few days.

This race has been won by fairly favoured runners over the past handful of years, the only blowout winner was Tavistock in 2009 at over $40, the only other double digit winner since the Seachange's first win in 2006 was Keep The Peace, she was probably better than that and went on to win other Group 1's, so I think it was worth keeping the favourites pretty safe.

#1 Mufhasa (5)

He is now age 8 and will be having his 51st start, I don't think we need to spend a lot of time going into his vast and impressive resume. I think you could easily argue that not only was Mufhasa the New Zealand horse of the year for the 2011/12 year, but that it was the finest year of his career. He has been so good and consistent since this race last year that I don't even know where you would start to search for a reason not to include him.

#2 Justanexcuse (6)

Seemed to tire over the second half of his campaign last year. Has been back for one start and should be better for it, he has a pretty good 2nd up record. Wins last year did not really come against this level of competition but all came at this distance and two at or above 59kg. Hard to include, but possibly a bit of value at $26 currently.

#3 Fritzy Boy (13)

The second former winner of this race in the field. He was off for almost a year when he returned strongly at Waikato recently. I thought that run showed some heart, and he may find himself in a similar position from a wide barrier this week. He always seems to go well in this set of races, 5th last year in this race. He will also go well with a bit of rain. Not a lot of recent form to go on, but if you consider a $15 winner to be an upset he might be the best chance of an upset in this race, except...

#4 Green Supreme (3)

... is paying the same as Fritzy Boy at this point.

There was a lot to like about the season of Green Supreme last year, he effectively returned from overseas racing in 2010 at rating 70 and by the end of the year was racing at Group 1 Level with a rating around 100.
I am still not sure what this horse is, forget the Wellington Cup start, will we see him work his way up to that distance this year? the win over 1400m at Awapuni was great, the finish in the Easter was strong. He will likely start slowly from barrier 3 and sprint for home. He won twice on a slow track last year so I am not sure what the concern is.

#5 I am Sam (2)

Could be a real opportunist here with wet weather. He has had strong winter form and performs best over 1400m. This class is a big test, and I am not sure it is one he is capable of passing, but maybe one to include in multiples if it is very wet.

#6 The Hombre (8)

He was very competitive last year, including a narrow loss at Group 1 victory. He has had one run back, he was not as strong as we have come to expect first up, I am happy to put that down to the track and give him another chance 2nd up, where he has been consistently strong. This is a test, but 1400m at Hawkes Bay suits the John Bary trained runner, if the rain stays away I am sure you will see him shorter than the $26 currently on offer.

#7 He's Remarkable (17)

Another to win a Group 1 in Australia last year. What? oh, that's right, shhhh.
His Autumn in Sydney was not as successful as his Spring in Aussie, but he is definitely capable in this class. He won on this track last year before leaving for Melbourne and will be looking to do the same this year. He is far less remarkable in the wet, but not terrible. He suffered from a string of wide draws at age 3 but was lucky last year in that area, barrier 17 could prove difficult.

#8 Time Keeper (12)

He is usually pretty consistent. He is a Group 1 Winner, but that was carrying very little at handicap conditions.He should be fit for running through the winter, all of his wins have come after ten starts other than his one this campaign.  His best results have been on good tracks, but I would expect to see him race in any conditions. This might be a big ask for Sir Slick 2.0.

#9 Khemosabi (14)

Solid throughout the winter, but this is much harder. Will be racing at his favoured distance, and will be hoping for rain. Has risen through the ranks but WFA conditions rule him out this time.

#10 Ocean Park (4)

Despite the wraps on him prior to pulling out of the derby last year, and the strong performance in his Guineas second place at Rosehill I am still not sure what to make of the second favourite.
What can we say from his record? He is consistent, he has never won (or started) at 1400m, his one start on a slow track was not his best (albeit against very tough competition), he is drawn well (but hasn't really made the most of strong draws in the past, generally still overpowering fields). The main question is really around the 1400m, is this what he is aiming for, or will be be better with a couple of starts over more distance? He is talented and you have to give him a chance, maybe the domination of the Wellington Stakes is the race to go back and watch, but this is tougher and I am not sure I would take him at $4.60, but I certainly don't have the guts to leave him off the podium.

#11  Fleur de Lune (1)

Might she have finally found the form to get that Group 1 victory? four Group1 placings, including 3rd in this race last year. 1400m is ideal and she could have possibly improved from the Foxbridge run. It is hard to question her on any surface. Considering the runners between her and Mufhasa in 5 she should get a very sweet trip in behind a likely leader. If I had major concerns over Mufhasa this is where I would be looking.

#12 Guiseppina (17)

She had a great year last year, and will look to build on that this year. Always solid first up but usually better second up, she will need good ground to show her best. She is good under WFA conditions and will probably be running home well, she won a Group 1 last year from barrier 18, so don't rule her out on the draw.

#13 Art Beat (10)

Has to be considered on a wet track, but will the track improve too much and hurt her chances. I always liked this runner and she is coming off the biggest win of her career. She has had more success under handicap conditions and this just looks too tough.

#14 No Excuse Maggie (15)

Another local, who enjoys this distance and would be a chance if the track remains moist. She does tend to win after a few runs as evidenced by her performance last start at Otaki. She has not been as strong in conditions with a set weight. Her one Group 1 outing last year was solid, but there is a difference in class. The draw is not really a concern, she should be handy and able to get across relatively easy on Saturday.

#15 Innovation (18)

Rose quickly through the grades with good success over the winter, but didn't really match it with the classier 3YO's early in that year. None of those wins are really comparable to this race and the impressive winter cup was still under handicap conditions. She will be better off than some as a 4YO mare at 56.5kg, and another who is more likeable if the track remains slow, but there are others I prefer more...

#16 Xanadu (10)

... such as another 4YO mare, one which should be far more preferred. A heap of merit from the run in the Waikato, although she had won on a slow track she looked to get through that ground very nicely. 200m further will suit. A Group 1 3rd only four months ago, but she will carry an extra 2kg as a 4YO Saturday. She was great early at age 3 and could go well to start off her 4YO campaign.

#17 Baby Guinness (9)

She is a possible starter. I just wanted to quickly comment that I thought the run in the tron was actually pretty good, she looked to run on well into 5th then fade over the last 50m. That was the first start since the summer and she probably needed it after over-racing throughout. I don't think she is up to this class, but she is a solid performer who might be interesting in multiples.

The Picks

Winner: Mufhasa - If this race was run in April he would have been the clear favourite, I don't really see what has changed.
Second: Fleur de Lune - I actually like her for second, but I am worried about the FdL tax, this little known rule of nature which states she must never quite live up to expectations.
Third: Ocean Park - I really don't know, I don't think he is as good as Jimmy Choux was coming into this last year, and feel like 1600m will be better, but he is hard to leave out.
Fourth: The Hombre - I went back and forth with He's Remarkable and Green Supreme for this spot. I think the track will improve, but maybe not quite enough for the other two.

Can Jimmy Choux win the Easter Handicap?

We approach the final Group 1 of the season with the same favourite as we approached the first Group 1 of the season. Veyron has had a great year, but if he was to carry the same weight as Jimmy Choux I don't think this would be a debate, Green Supreme was great a couple of weeks ago but is not yet at the class of these other two. The handicap conditions make this race very competitive and as you scroll down the list of nominees you see a lot of runners at their respective weight who can be competitive. The draw has made this race interesting, as had the threat of rain (I am going to try to avoid making a weather prediction this week, as most weeks I am wrong).

All things been equal Jimmy Choux wins this race. Critics will point to his first up record, but his last fresh start was a close second behind Mufhasa at Group 1 level, this fresh start may be slightly different because of his upcoming trip to Australia and this may be just a run to shake off the cobwebs and get him ready for those races. I don't think any ground will be an issue for Jimmy Choux, he has drawn 10, which is not a concern.

Veyron has had a great year, he will carry 2kg less than Jimmy Choux, he was a close second behind Scarlett Lady last start (who would have been considered by many on par with JC last spring before her injury). This was shaping up like a great race as Veyron also can handle all conditions, he has a fantastic record at Ellerslie, loves 1600m, goes very well after a bit of freshening. If the 2kg penalty was not enough to make you consider these two equal the barrier draw has really worked against Veyron and brings things back towards Jimmy Choux's favour.

Green Supreme is the other candidate with great potential. He won easily over 1400m last start and will take on the extra 200m here. He looked very good building up over ground before his 6th in the Wellington Cup. His 1600m and Auckland records and sound, and he has won twice on slow tracks.  The handicap conditions will give him 55kg to carry which is only 500 grams more than he carried to victory last start. How good is he relative to Jimmy and Veyron is the big unknown. He has won carrying more at lower grades over the past couple of months, he has quickly risen through the grades and is suited to these Open handicap conditions, he is very well drawn to be a major factor.

There are two other runners backing up from last weeks Group 1, the handicap conditions should suit both Postman's Daughter and Fleur de Lune. Fleur de Lune was very close to a win last week, and has secured a good draw in this big field. Postman's Daughter will be .5kg better off this week in weight relative to FdL, who will carry 2.5kg less that the set weight from last week. Postman's Daughter was consistent before her 8th last week and might be ready for a break, Fleur de Lune seems to be coming on and should be well set for this despite the run last week. A little softness underfoot should not concern either runner, FdL goes better at Ellerslie. Both are contenders here, but Fleur de Lune is the better of the two, I am still not sure she will be able to better Green Supreme given the similar weights the two will carry.

Vonusti is the other Group 1 winner in the race (Unless Time Keeper makes it in), he is not really in that Group 1 form, and has not really been as consistent since Boxing Day. The distance he has run over has gone up and down over the last few months, he is pretty well weighted at 55.5kg and should be set for 1600m right now, he is always a danger at Ellerslie.

Others who stand out include Justanexcuse who seems to be getting back to close to his best form. He has been carrying significantly more since the Coupland's Mile which was a comparable weight. Most of his experience is going left but he did win well under a big weight last start. Might be one for odds if the rain comes. He meets Green Supreme relatively 1kg better off than when the two met last with Green Supreme winning by 1 length, is that enough to make this interesting?

It has been about 18 months since Atom Cat won his last race. However he might be worth considering if the conditions take a turn down. He enjoys Ellerslie, has a cosy barrier 4th draw, and has a decent 2nd up record. Actually most of Atom Cat's victories have come early in campaigns, so the resuming 4th possibly showed some promise as it relates to this race. He is carrying 53.5kg in this field which is a very significant light weight.

Of the Richard Collett trained runners I am leaning towards Riotous, he has a weight advantage over his stablemate Alegrio and is drawn better to really compete. Both have similar Ellerslie records, and I imagine that if it is wet the weight advantage should equalise them. I really enjoyed the win here last start, I would stay away if wet, but 52kg compares well to the second here during Auckland Cup week.

Steel Giant is a pretty good horse to only carry 52kg here. A course and distance win on a rain effected track was decent but the field was ripped up with scratchings that day. I wouldn't consider him on a wet track, the draw is a put off and at weights Justanexcuse is effectively dropping the same amount after beating him soundly last start.

Sum Up has been pretty good this season. 1600m is probably short of his best distance, but at weight on a wet track might give some value. This would be by far the biggest win of his career,  but he has gone close in decent races and was not a disgrace at Group 1 level. He likes it right handed and recent performances at Ellerslie have shown merit.

Jetset Lad was another I liked, but was put off by the draw. 1600m should really suit, he can factor, but I cant see him winning.

When it comes down to making picks I really think it will depend on how fit Jimmy Choux is and how he will carry that big weight. I think he is better here than Veyron because of Veyron's draw, the next biggest threat is Green Supreme (considering I think he is more suited than Fleur de Lune), I am simply not sure how to compare these two runners. Overall record there is no comparison, at the same weight I would like Jimmy all day. In regard to Green Supreme he has still not really faced a challenge on this level, his next biggest challenge was the Wellington Cup recently, before this it was at 3rd at Group 1 level at age 3, although he has been winning fairly handily this prep, the field he will face on Saturday is very strong. He beat a number of runners here last start, but I still feel like despite the Jimmy Choux question marks I have to look his way in this race, he has been there before and is a proven commodity.

First - Jimmy Choux
Second - Green Supreme
Third - Veyron - He is in great form and loves Ellerslie
Fourth - Atom Cat - I like him more if the rain comes.

Are you ready for New Zealand's Weirdest Group 1

This Easter sees Group 1 Racing coming from New Zealand. No, it is not the Easter Handicap, that is the week after Easter for some inexplicable reason. We are going to be looking at Te Aroha for their sole Group 1 race the New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes.

This race is strange, so strap in. This is the only Fillies and Mares specific Group 1 race for those older that 3YO, and strange things occur.

Barinka won this race last year beating Smoulder and Fleur de Lune who both line up again on Saturday. That win was her first and only Group 1 success, she won paying somewhere in the $18 region. She was the most recent in a long line of somewhat unexpected winners of this race. Strange things happen, so don't be afraid to go a bit loose in your selections. Particularly when both those place getter's last year paid over $7. Fixed odds place betting could get a hammering this weekend.

This race features potential up-and-coming mares with bright futures ahead of them, it features older campaigners seeking a last shot at Group 1 success to maybe improve their value as a Broodmare, and other runners who are just in it because it is there.   

Need more proof that it is a strange one, going back to 2010 we see another longer shot winner in Juice. She paid $17.60, she was also ridden by Hayden Tinsley, it was also her only Group 1 success. Culminate and Obsession were more favoured as they rounded out the Tirfecta.

Dane Juila was second favourite when breaking this longshot trend in 2009, she beat the favourite. It was her only Group 1 win in New Zealand and only her second overall.

2008 was a normal year for the Breeders Stakes, Special Mission won for James McDonald paying $17.30. Culminate ran her first second and Keepa Cruisin ran for third. You will be surprised to discover this was her only Group 1 win, with her form tailing off following this result starting with an 11th in the Easter Handicap a few weeks later.

In 2007 a mare by the name of Captivate won this race. She was loved by the punters (relatively) paying a only $15.60 for Sam Spratt.

Arlingtonboulevard broke away with Jason Waddell on board in 2006 to claim that years version of the Breeders Stakes, fortunately Salsa ran second and would have paid $19.5 for the win, so successful punters had to accept a small return of $14.70 for their efforts.

You will not believe what Rockabubble paid winning in 2005 when the race was held in March, only $8, making her the first of only two sub $10 winners in the past 7 running's of this race. She finished 18th and 17th respectively in her next two attempts at Group 1 level.

2004 saw Surprize Surprize paying $11.85 despite finishing second in this race in 2003.

The horse who beat Surprize Surprize was called Zirna and paid $8.95 when winning, Surprize Surprize paid a big $6.30 for the place which was not even as large as third placed Rodrigo Rose who paid $7.35 for her place, making that year another sizable trifecta.

Whatever you do, do not back this weekends winner to go the Breeders/Easter Handicap double, the 2002 Breeders Stakes winner finished 14th in the Easter Handicap is another of many not to perform in this next Group 1. Saint Cecile paid $13 winning in 2002. Remember I have not mentioned one winning favourite in the past 9 years of this race. This was actually Saint Cecile's second win in this race as the 2002 victory backed up her 2001 victory (and she still paid $13), for the record in 2001 she was paying, $8.95 and the race was only at Group 2 level that year.

Where does that leave us this year, in the past 10 years we have seen no favourites win, $5.60 (Dane Julia) was the shortest priced winner, only three other horses have won and paid under $10 in the past 10 outings. To give you an idea, in all of the Group 1 races so far this year, Distil, Artistic and Choice Bro are the only winners who paid more that $10, two of those are the most recent two Group 1's of the year. We have seen 5 winners paying $14.70 or more throughout the years (would have loved to round up to $15 then), that is half of the winners. There has been 1 back to back winner (not counting Hayden Tinsley riding back to back winners), and Culiminate has run second twice, also Surprize Surprize ran second and went one better the following year. The only 3YO Filly to win was Special Mission, there have been 6 4YO's to win in the last 10 years, 3 6YO's and the only 5YO was Saint Cecile winning her second time.

So who are the likely candidates to continue this strange run of winners this year? Who fits the profile we have just described? Actually just about all of them.

There are four runners paying less than $10 (Fleur de Lune, Lady Kipling, Say No More, and Xanadu), keep one handy in your multiples as that seems to be the trend). 

Other than the emergencies there are six runners paying in excess of $20 (Platinum Princess, Do Ri Mi, No Excuse Maggie, Lady Chaparral,  Jeu de Cartes, Acapela).

That leaves six runners in the sweet spot, Postmans Daughter ($12, seems pretty good value), Fazzle ($14), Dating ($14), Floria ($10), Villifye ($10), Smoulder ($16).

What are my selections based on absolutely no analysis other than the last 10 events?
Winner - Smoulder ($16) - in the sweet spot, also doubles as the horse who performed well in this race a year ago.
Second - Lady Kipling ($7.50) - shorter odds runner to go close
Third - Postmans Daughter ($12) - value runner rounding out the trifecta.
Fourth - Fleur de Lune ($6) - the favourite 

Maybe it is better to look at this race with a bit more analysis, basically you can expect strange things to happen because there are a lot of chances, we have a big field, and there is not really a clear cut favourite. With the wet forecast for the weekend I am anticipating we will at least see a slow track.(Only the first four are listed in specific order)

Long Shot First Four Contenders
#7 Do Ra Mi (14) $31 & $9 - Hard to know what the best indication of form is, she has not seen a good track since September last year, it is unlikely she will see one this weekend either.


#13 Lady Chaparral (6) $26 & $8 - Not too many have beaten Mufhasa this season, she is one of them. Her form since has not been the strongest, however she has gone well in Te Aroha, her record at Tauranga was likely a factor in the victory over Mufhasa, but this looks too tough.

#14 Jeu de Cartes (21) $21 & $6.50 - The draw is tough on this track, she does seem to go well on rain effected tracks, she has stepped up in quality over her last few and just has not quite reached this level. 

#15 Acapela (1) $21 & $6.50 - Good to see Jason Collett back riding. On paper this is a chance, decent form, well drawn, decent record in the wet, has been beginning to step up in quality. I just think the set weight of 57kg will hurt her chances and I like others more.


A first four chance
#12 No Excuse Maggie (7) $33 & $10 - I like this John Barry runner, she was great throughout the winter last prep. She has not really come back in the same form, but she is hard to rule out. She won 4th, 6th and 9th up last prep (4th up on Saturday), her first 3 starts leading into that were 5th, 8th and 7th, this is a much tougher fourth start. Record over 1600m and on wet tracks is good.

#10 Villifye (16) $10 & $3.40 - Looked great last start winning, will have to deal with a big increase in weight in this one, she will handle the rain and looked like an improving mare, but I like the look of others more.

#9 Say No More (20) $7.50 & $2.60 - Say no more is a group one winner this season. She got a sweet draw and trip on that occasion carrying only 52kg. This looks tougher with 57kgs to carry and a wide draw to deal with.  

#2 Platinum Princess (12) $31 & $9 - She won the Coupland's Bakeries Mile last year and has a great 1600m record, she has just not really gone on since then in races carrying a set weight. Possibly the draw has not been great in a few of these, and this is similar to the race she won on New Year's day at Ellerslie.

Hard to leave out
#3 Fazzle (15) $14 & $4.50 - That last 200m scares me, she might have a lot of work to do from the draw. She has really come on well over 1400m, and if you knew she would get a decent trip she might be hard to avoid, but I think she will need some luck.

#6 Floria (11) $10 & $3.40 - This just looks like a step up, she will have to carry more weight and possibly deal with a wet track. She is consistent and hard to completely ignore.

#17 Xanadu (9) $7 & $2.50 - I will always have another look at a 3YO in this type of race with the weight allowance. I have been both impressed and disappointed with this filly this year. I think this field is similar to Ellerslie on Boxing Day, yes there are older horses, but there is enough class to make this tough on her.

#4 Dating (4) $14 & $4.50 - The more I looked at her the more I liked her chances. She is a tough omission and from the draw  I thought she looked a great chance. I have left her out because she is so inconsistent. When she won that F&M race back in October it looked like she would have a great season, she has just been too up and down to take.

First Four

Fourth - #5 Fleur de Lune (3) $6 & 2 - A lot to like, can she break the favourtie jinx? Well drawn and seems to be back close to her best.
Third - #1 Postmans Daughter (10) $12 & $4 - A strong competitor, consistent and racing in tougher company. Seems to go back and forth in distance, 1600m two starts in a row carrying basically what she carried for second in handicap conditions last start.
Second - #8 Lady Kipling (8) $7.50 & $2.60 - Has had a great year competing gamely in much tougher races. 1600m should suit her, I do have a right handed concern, but she has not been too bad recently.
First - #11 Smoulder (5) $16 & $5 - To take her you need to completely forgive the Tauranga effort, she was favourite, she had a bad day. She has been very good the rest of the year, she possibly has not won as many races as you would like, but she has been consistent. She can bounce back from a good draw here. She fits a lot of the history of this race in recent years.

What has changed since the Daimond Stakes?

What has happened in between the 2YO's we will see in the Group 1 Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes this season?

-On New Years Day, in the Eclipse Stakes, of runners competing in the Oaks Stud Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes the finishing order was Warhorse, Irish Rebel, Magic Shaft.

- Moving forward to January 21st in Wellington, the Little Avondale Stud Wakefield Challenge Stakes, we saw a finishing order of Irish Rebel, Liberating.

-The Karaka Million was run on the 29th of January, the finishing order was Warhorse, Choice Bro, Mai Guru.

-  Moving into February the 2YO division saw Choice Bro beat Lumiere Blue and Liberating in Taranaki in the Platinum Homes 2YO Classic.

- A week later was a big day at Matamata, we first saw the Reid and Harrision Slipper and watched Magic Shaft better Irish Rebel and Travino, which was the first time we saw a change in one of the major 2YO features since New Years Day. Later that day in the J Swap Contractors Matamata Breeders Stakes we saw them finish Rollout the Carpet, Liberating, Lady de Chine.

- Then in the seasons first 2YO Group 1 we the Haunui Farm Diamond Stakes at Ellerslie, they crossed the line Rollout the Carpet, Warhorse, Soriano, Travino, Choice Bro, and Mai Guru. Warhorse and Rollout the Carpet were reversed in the judges room, and there are question marks as to how her performance may have effected other runners, but it is clear looking at the Two year olds this year there have not been a lot of major shakeups (in these major races at least).

The question is will this change this weekend? The big difference is that they will be competing over 1400m.

Lets look at what we have seen over these seven races to date with the eleven horses who have competed against each other to try to create a ranking. This ranking wont take into account performance or magnitude of the race, simply a Rock, Paper, Scissors type breakdown.

The above table shows the evolution over time of who beat who and by roughly how much. The major change was in the Diamond Stakes because Choice Bro finished well below expectations and Travino finished much closer, that indicates to me that we are in for a close race.


What can explain these significant changes?

Travino was great before Christmas, if those results were taken into account he probably would have begun this table in a higher position, he might be getting fitter, and had claims he was interfered with in that last race.

Choice Bro's best result in the 2YO classic was left handed, the race Daimond Stakes was at Ellerslie Right Handed, he finished about 2.5 lengths behind Warhorse, about an additional length from the Karaka Million, not majorly significant, but does indicate some course and distance regression relative to Warhorse, particularly when you consider that Mai Guru was about 2.5 lengths behind in both races.


Who has excuses from that race?
Mai Guru raced about four wide for most of the event. If we really look at that finish, if not for the fright Rollout the Carpet would have probably won that race. Choice Bro was coming from deep and really never a chance but did make up ground. Warhorse was clearly effected by Rollout the Carpet, Mai Guru was effected by Warhorse, and Travino was effected by Mai Guru. Warhorse had continued interference, Travino and Mai Guru cut inside and Mai Guru was squeezed between Travino and Soriano.


What is different about this weekend's race?
It is 1400m, who might that help?
Rollout the Carpet, Warhorse, Soriano, Travino and Choice Bro all seemed to run out the 1200m very well, 1400m should suit. Magic Shaft looked suited, Irish Rebel could use more ground (Guineas winner in the Spring?).

The Fix is in!
We have the addition of Fix into the mix. What can we expect from this winner of two from two. She got up late to win her maiden over 1000m and then really used the extra 100m well to smash them at Ellerslie. 1400m should suit, she is a major player here.


Who might be better suited going Left Handed?
I think it is fair to include Choice Bro in here as a horse may improve going left, only because of the victory over Ockham's Razor following Ockham's Razors Karaka Million victory. We are generally looking at a small sample size but Warhorse's only "failure" was left handed at Te Rapa, Mai Guru looked good left and has not done as well right (in much tougher races), Rollout the Carpet has had one run right and we saw what happened (although it looked like a fright more than anything), Liberating best work has been left. It does not really look like there is too much to read into these results.


Will anyone benefit from the Awapuni Location?
Lady de Chine is trained at Awapuni, Liberating and Lumiere Blue are others with less distance to travel. Irish Rebel and Choice Bro are the only ones to run a race on the track, the finished first and second in the same race back in December.

Has any performance been effected negatively or positively by track conditions? (right now the track is Dead 4, there is no significant rain forecast).
You can make a case this will be the best track Travino has ran on since his return from Australia. Lumiere Blue was 9th of 9th on a track rated 4, if it improves so does his record. Liberating seems to improve with a bit more moisture around. Lady de Chine went very well on good tracks before the run in the Matamata Breeders Stakes which was Dead.

Any Barrier Draw Concerns?
Warhorse and Choice Bro should get good runs to suit with a lot of runners outside them battling for the lead. A few potential leaders, Irish Rebel (4) , Magic Shaft (7), possibly Mai Guru (1), Rollout the Carpet (6), Fix (9). I think Fix may be suited to get across outside the leader where he has been in other races, however there is definitely a chance the likes of Magic Shaft and Fix can get caught wide if too many move forward. Soriano might be unlucky to be out in 11. Liberating performed well leading last time from a good draw, has tended to go back without much success when drawn wider so 12 is unlucky.

Any odds stand out?
Choice Bro, Left handed, conditions will suit, raced on the track, may be better with the shorter gap between races. $14 is value.
Travino, may get better conditions, unlucky last time, winner on the track. $9 seems fair.
Lumiere Blue, should run into decent conditions, has performed well against these runners in the past, pretty consistent and probably a better chance than $26.
Fix is at $12, there are a few unknowns for her, so $12 is fair, but could be the surprise package.
Lady de Chine is probably a better chance than $26, but there are a lot to like more.

How do I see them finishing?
First - Rollout the Carpet - Should already have a Group 1 to her credit
Second - Choice Bro - Give the benefit of the doubt, I think we see a better performance
Third - Irish Rebel - Matamata breeders finish was strong, an improvement from the Wellington run, should be set for this.
Fourth - Travino - Went back and forth between Warhorse and Magic Shaft before realising that things may be aligning for a strong Travino performance here.

I am very unsure about fourth, if you are having a first four try to go as wide as possible.

To go back to the question at the top, has much changed since the Diamond Stakes? Clearly I think so.

Which Kiwi has the best chance in the Rosehill Guineas?

This Saturday four New Zealand trained runners will take their place in the Rosehill Guineas over 2000m in Sydney. Three of them are rated (by New Zealand bookies) in the top 5 chances (in terms of odds), the other is already a Group 1 winner in Australia. The trip to Australia is always a big challenge for Kiwi horses, there has been a lot of successes over the past couple of years with Wall Street, Jimmy Choux, Mufhasa, Sangster, Lion Tamer, Kings Rose (Can I still claim that?) and Scarlett Lady amongst some of the more successful. This Saturday there is a chance another name will be added to this list. I have watched these New Zealand 3YO's pretty closely and this is how I think they will go this weekend.

Sangster won the Victorian Derby in November. This prep he was never going to be a chance in the Waikato Draft Sprint, he was most likely not going to factor in the Australian Guineas, but last start at Moonee Valley over 2040m he showed similar progress to his build up to the Victorian Derby putting in a better performance. 2000m will suit, but this may still be a bit of a Derby build up. He is certainly a place chance, $21 is pretty good value for a win, but the AJC Derby in two weeks is a race he could really be a big part of.

Rock'n'Pop is a bigger chance than the $10 odds on offer at present. Even just looking at how he compares to Ocean Park and Silent Achiever, he was well beaten into second by Silent Achiever on ground which was probably not ideal for either runner, but why is Ocean Park rated a so much better chance than him. Rock'n'Pop won the Guineas, was third at Group 1 level behind Shez Sinsational over this distance, and then was a good second in the Derby (when distance was a question mark). Ocean Park's best two results were dominating the Group 3 Wellington Stakes, a close up 8th two weeks ago at Randwick, and having Silent Achiever weave through the field and beat him in Hamilton. Personally I still prefer Rcok'n'Pop, I think this distance will suit, he will be happy at barrier 10 and you would imagine he will be in the first half of the pack two wide.

Ocean Park is a good chance, despite been caught late over 2000m at Hamilton he will be fitter for that experience over 2000m. He was only two-ish lengths behind Mosheen last start (she would be favoured here I expect) and finished comparably to Manawanui. I know Ocean Park is good, it is just very hard to compare him to any of the other Kiwi horses, I know Silent Achiever was better than him, is suspect Rock'n'Pop is better, but because he missed the derby there are a lot of unknowns. It appears he might have improved from his last New Zealand Race, and strong form in Australia is important, but he did finish behind Seven other horses in the Randwick Guineas, five of which he will face on Saturday. Luck was certainly a factor in the Randwick Guineas, but to bet on Ocean Park to win this weekend you need to make the following assumptions; he wont have bad luck (you have to assume that for whoever you bet on); he would have beaten the other  five Australian runners without bad luck (doubtful); he would have beaten them if the race was extended 400m (possible); he has improved to the point he is better than Silent Achiever (unlikely); Silent Achiever will beat every other runner over 2000m (a strong chance); he is stronger and 2000m now suits (I am still not completely sure, but will give him benefit of the doubt).  That is not enough in my opinion to have him beating Silent Achiever, Laser Hawk or all of other other four who beat him last time.

Silent Achiever is great, the draw should not concern, she will go back, if she has cover she should be able to get a run. She is the best hope of the Kiwi's, in a four horse race over this distance she beats them all with comfort. Is she good enough to beat the Aussie horses? that is the big question.

Of course this is not just a four horse race, there will probably be 18 starters. Laser Hawk ran a narrow third to Mosheen last start and has to be considered. If you like Ocean Park you have to like the look of Galah. Strike the Stars is a chance based on his last two races. Induna and Sabrage will be getting better with distance, but probably wont figure. Highly Recommended looks more threatening over 2000m. Said Com is consistent but ran out of steam and now has 400m more to deal with. Proliferate is stepping up, but the distance with better footing may help.

There are chances across the board and the Kiwi runners are a good hope, certainly we should see one or two in the money, but can they claim the big prize, Silent Achiever looks the best pick.

New Zealand Oaks 2012 Preview

Quick, who won the 2011 New Zealand Oaks? tick, tock, tick, buzz. Sorry, no, Kings Rose did not win the Oaks, thanks for playing we have some lovely parting gifts for you.

If you had guessed Scarlett Lady, Shez Sensational, Postmans Daughter or any of the other leading 4YO mares we are seeing around at the moment you would still be wrong. Midnight Oil was the winner, she was followed by Zennista and Insurgent.

This is another year were we will not see the top 3YO filly win the Oaks; she won the New Zealand Derby two weeks ago. That said this field is highlighted by some absolutely top class 3YO talent. The 3YO fillies have been rocking it this year, it is an excellent crop, in my Opinion two of the most stacked 3YO races this year, other than the Derby have been the Eight Carat Classic on Boxing Day and the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. These races didn't even even feature top 3YO prospect at the beginning of the season Anabandana and the Eight Carat Classic featured Dowager Queen but she was far from her best at that point in the season.

This years Oak's field definitely looks split between the "have's" and "have not's" the top half of the book is already very accomplished and filled with genuine winning chances, the bottom half of the book features more uncertainty, but this is the Oaks, it is a huge race and anything can happen.



The Have's

Planet Rock was so impressive in the wet at Hastings, she is a prime contender in this. She is the second favourite which is confusing. Yes, prior to the run at Hastings she recorded two 4ths, but I do feel like she can be fully excused for the first one and partially excused for the second. If you throw out those races would she be favourite? My biggest concern is the change in Jockey, taking off arguably the best big race jockey in the country, that is confusing, in spite of that she may still win.

Is Artistic the filly version of Shuka? look at her 3YO season, it is very consistent, she has finished close up to some very strong competition and she is clearly in the top tier of 3YO's, but she has not really won the big one. I was not sure about her over more distance, but the win during Auckland Cup week and the Sir Tristram Fillies fifth have convinced me otherwise. Has got lucky with the draw, but possibly will face too much competition here to win.

Capital Diamond was very good last time in the Capital. Was just taken out by a flying finish by Quintessential. Zurella gave her more of the same in the Sir Tristram Fillies and Planet Rock trounced her in the Lowland Stakes. She will look to lead and barrier 1 suits this well. She is a very good filly who, with a bit of luck, may have won three starts back at Trentham and won the Sir Tristram Fillies and come into this race as favourite. As it is she is paying $10 (fixed) and $3.25 a place (fixed), can she win? absolutely, will she finish in the money? very likely. Take the $3.25 and thank me later.

Zurella, we know it needs to be dry (and it looks like it will be). We know she goes considerably better left. We know she has run 2400m reasonably well. But there is something about her which leaves me a little cold. Is she overrated? I think she might be. Clearly she is talented, but if you put a stake in the ground and called it A and another stake in the ground 6.2 lengths away and called it B you would be looking at the difference between the best 3YO filly and Zurella (over 2400m), do you think any other filly will finish in that gap in this race? I think so.

Quintessential is paying $15 and $4.75 at the moment. I am not sure what to make of this. I really put it all down to the draw. She is better than that. She finished the day after Planet Rock when third in the Lowland Stakes, but those conditions were horrible. Based on her win here in late January alone you have to consider her a contender here. As I said, I am very put off by the draw, but that is really the major doubt in my mind.

Chicharita is properly rated for this race. She is a horse who I liked for the derby when the conditions looked like they might be bad, this week with a track probably improving to good by start time I am not as confident in her ability to beat some of the other contenders here. Her worst results have come left handed, she was 6th in the Sir Tristram Fillies, every horse who beat her is in this race. Although, she did look good over 2400m as the second filly home, I cant see her improving on that Derby run.

Joy's Choice has been on the radar for a while, but really emerged in the Royal Stakes at Ellerslie, she then came very close to winning the Sunline Vase during Auckland Cup week. I definitely have her in the top half of this field and would be another who I would not be surprised to see in the finish. She is pretty well drawn, and although she was caught late over 2100m, if she can get a sweet trip and save her energy and emerge slightly later she may be able to hold on this time.

Splitsecond is probably the biggest beneficiary of Silent Achiever heading overseas, she will gain the services of James McDonald for this race as he and Roger James target a Derby/Oaks double. $9 is probably a little shorter than I would have expected, but if the Sunline Vase was 2150m she may have won that race (actually Glad probably would have won that race). She has quickly risen to this level and I think a horse like Carrick is a fair comparison, so she has to be considered, she can definitely win this, but with the level of competition $9 does not look like value, $3 a place is more realistic.

The Have Nots (or more accurately the Have Not Yet's)


 Poste Restante looks comfortable racing at rating 65 level, she has stepped up recently in distance and slightly in class and been solid but unspectacular.  If Angleology was a filly, where would you rate him in the field after his Derby Performance? Probably not in the top 7, right?

Savasong might still be running the Lowlands Stakes. Forgive that race because of the conditions, and look at the 1800m second at New Plymouth as a better guide. Not exactly the stiffest competition, but signs point to her finishing the 2400m well.

Melody Celebre last ran over 1200m about 6 weeks ago. She will like a bit more distance, but this is double, she has run over 1600m a couple of times without success. What is the best case for her? I really don't know. She could win this, but it would require mass scratching for unknown reasons. 

Tilda was only 7.5 lengths away from Silent Achiever in the Avondale Guineas. Of course Silent Achiever walked in that race, and that put her behind 6 derby runners. She has had another lower grade start over 2100m since. She looks like she will be able to get the 2400m, but is out of her class here.

Asavant is probably the 'have not' to beat until the barrier draw. It is hard to see her figuring here. She raced in the same race at Trentham on the 28th of January as a number of these starters and finished 13th, she is probably better than that but not significantly.

Jungle Pago is consistent-ish, but hard to see her doing anything over 2400m based on the video of her last start.

Lady Plantinum has been there-or-thereabouts and getting better with distance. The set weight may actually hinder her chances. Although she is not in the class of a lot of these runners she is better than 100-1 would suggest and might be the "have not" to watch.

Manhattam Mam shouldn't be a threat in this race, it is a major step up in class.

Myminkcoat has a very cool name and has been consistent when the footing is good. She is one who should be suited to 2400m and almost closed enough to win last start over 2200m. Again 100-1 seems unfairly high, but I guess when your ceiling may be a top 6 finish it doesn't make a lot of difference.

The Picks
First - Planet Rock - I can't sleep on her, she is a Group 1 winner who has returned to form.
Second - Capital Diamond - Forget the last start (it was still a Group 3 Second), but the last two before that were so close.
Third - Splitsecond - I am buying the flying finish from the Sunline Vase
Fourth - Zurella - Reluctantly, I really wanted to pick Artistic, but I know I am too hard on Zurella and she will probably outperform my expectations.

Three Year Old Power Rankings March Edition

Many things have changed in the last month since the February Power Rankings,we have seen the running of the New Zealand Derby, the Sunline Vase, the Lowland Stakes, and the Mr Tiz Trophy. We have seen a possible return to prominence from Burgundy, and a surprising lack of prominence from Antonio Lombardo, as well as the retirement of Anabandana and Ocean Park heading off in search of his derby across the ditch.

Where does that put us in the Power Rankings?

The Anabandana situation is a mystery, she was second on this list last month, and although she would have dropped following her second, and ultimately final, start in Australia I didn't expect to see a retirement. I guess, much like Distil she will have to drop from the rankings, because if not racing I guess she doesn't qualify. What an outstanding career!

I have really loved this class of fillies, and we are looking at a great Oaks this weekend, we may see another filly on top of this list, but Ocean park has a chance to take a big step up this list as he taking on the Randwick Guineas this weekend.

Not sure what to make of Burgundy after the weekend, which is becoming like his nickname, he was probably never going to win a Derby, after watching the run on the weekend I am unsure if he was really ever going to win a guineas either, it was only a month ago when I wrote " I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana." It would have been awesome if I was writing about Burgundy, but I was actually talking about Antonio Lombardo. This really creates a puzzle. Burgundy looked very good, maybe he was always going to be a 1200m type horse. As it turns out this was the thinking from the connections as well. (although that article indicates it wont be in the thought process, do you think an Easter Handicap is too much of a stretch? we are still waiting on our first 3YO Group 1 winner at open level). Antonio Lombardo didn't really look as good as he did early in the Spring, maybe it was the dead track which had been raced on 24 times that week, or the extra weight he was carrying but he just didn't seem to have that same closing speed, did he do enough to remain in the top 10.

Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Anabandana (2) Sangster (8) Capital Diamond (10)

Honourable Mention
Anabandana (2, for reasons discussed above), Sangster (8, hard to leave out, his starts this prep have been over 1400m and 1600m, I would expect to see him back in this list once we get closer to 2000m ), Chicharita (Very narrow miss, testament to the quality of the 3YO's we are seeing), Capital Diamond (10, Fought on well in the wet, still a possible Oaks contender, 2400m should not be an issue), Duckworth Lewis (HM), Quintessential (HM), Travolta, Joy's Choice, Nashville (HM), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Glad (not currently Oak's nominated but Sleeper Alert!)

Number 10 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - Would have been hard to leave him off, I really expect to see him bounce back over his next start. He didn't look his best on the weekend, but I expect to see him back to it soon.


Number 9 - Ocean Park (9) - Big expectations around this Colt and what he can do in Sydney.


Number 8 - Knight's Tour (7) - What could have been? Not sure when he is coming back, hopefully he comes back as good has be looked before the injury.

Number 7 - Burgundy (HM) - Back up in the rankings following an impressive 1200m victory in a listed race the last day of Auckland Cup week. 

Number 6 - Artistic (HM) - Was her win the Sunline Vase better than Capital Diamond's second in the Lowland Stakes. The conditions were certainly better, it will be interesting to find out this Saturday.

Number 5 - Carrick (N/A) - Close up and fighting third in the Derby,  he is probably working with less talent wise than the first two on this list, but he showed a great effort and should continue to contend when the distance gets above 2000m.

Number 4 - Zurella (5) - Was good in the Derby for 5th in a race which probably wasn't ideal. She will want a dryer track in the Oaks, and although it feels (to me anyway) like there is still a question mark over 2400m she may challenge based on talent alone.

Number 3 - Planet Rock (6) - Back to her best when winning on Derby Day in the Hawkes Bay. She is an interesting one, I had to drop her down the list last time because she had two consecutive fourths, however I really felt that the Royal Stakes was justified because of the backing up from the week before and it was her first 2000m start. The following start in the Sir Tristram fillies I felt there were excuses, but it was maybe just not her day, she also finished behind three very good fillies. She is clearly class and can really prove it by beating a top Oak's field this weekend.

Number 2 - Rock'n'Pop (1) - Is it possible I have actually underrated him all year? How do you underrate a Group 1 winner? But he ran out a very strong Derby, prior to this the 3rd at Group 1 level was again excellent. The only time he didn't really fire was on a slow track in a meaningless race. I am still not even sure the distance or conditions for the Derby were really ideal, but he just showed his considerable talent.

Number 1 - Silent Achiever (4) - What more can I say? no, seriously, I have probably written about 5000+ words about her since December. She was amazing on the 3rd, it was a great win. It will be great to see what she can do in Australia. Is she as good as Jimmy Choux was last year? hard to say, I will need to think about that. I feel another breakdown coming on (although I was wrong about the last one I wrote).  She is a different horse than Jimmy Choux, she was always going to get better as we got up to 2400m, but maybe we will see them against each other next year over 2000m, that could be interesting. My gut says that Jimmy is better, but even if she is only as good as King's Rose, we are still looking at what will be an interesting 4YO year.

Value Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed, although I can say I will be Glad to see them when they are.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed

James McDonald's Quest for the Cup week Sweep

This is now a story. There was always a possibility it would become one and in some ways the two Group 1's McDonald has won were the easier of the two he will face this week. They were the ones he was probably expected to win. In other ways they were harder, there was enough that went wrong before and during those races that the victories were remarkable. He will ride Scarlett Lady and Rollout the Carpet on Saturday in his quest to sweep the Auckland Cup week Group 1's.

James McDonald calls Ellerslie his favourite track. I don't think anyone would disagree with him. Durham Town, Silent Achiever, Fix, Peridot, Between the Beats, and Shez Sensational have won this Auckland Cup week with him on board. Fix was another in a long line of wins in the first race of the day at Ellerslie yesterday. His strike rate is currently a ridiculous 4.41, that should mean with the nine rides he currently has booked for Saturday there are two winners in that group, I am sure the ones he wants the most are the Diamond Stakes and the New Zealand Stakes.

The New Zealand Derby last Saturday, James McDonald was riding Silent Achiever. The ground was possibly not as suitable as they would have liked, there was not a lot of pace in the race for Silent Achiever a horse who typically likes to race towards the back of the pack. It was evident from the relief shown by Roger James when they interviewed him after the victory that although he felt he had the horse with the most talent, he was not sure if things were lining up exactly how he wanted. After the race James McDonald admitted he didn't ride exactly to instructions and Silent Achiever slipped leaving the gates, judging from the after race comments analysts felt that possibly Silent Achiever hit the front earlier than she normally would have. What I liked about the ride was the point about 1400m to go when she was third from last and James McDonald moved her up, three wide, but closer to the pace. As they hit the 800m mark there is probably only 9 runners ahead of him, it was an excellent place for him to be when they started the sprint for home. As it was she won comfortably, but if he had been further back who knows, maybe she gets blocked or simply out sprinted. He really seemed to always have that race under his control from about 350m, every time another runner battled closer he asked her for more and she gave it.

In the Auckland Cup yesterday, as trainer Allan Sharrock said in his interview after the race "what else could go wrong" (in the video in the link, you need to sign up to view it, but it is free). He even basically said that the rain that had started about an hour before the race had put him off having a big bet on the horse because of the uncertainty in the conditions. Given what we saw on Saturday it would be hard not to be concerned at that point. During the running of the race George Simon made several comments about the position of Shez Sensational. "the favourite's under a ride" was his call as James McDonald went to work on her about 450m to go, he was probably one of the first Jockeys to make a move in the race. He then had to work a bit to find a hole, but Shez Sensational responded when he finally did. George Simon mentions she is warming up as they pass the 300m mark, but she really hits her stride with about 200m to go and just had too much top speed chasing down Spiro on the line.

Clearly we are looking at a very talented Filly and Mare, but everything didn't go their way, and those were very strong rides to allow the horses to show their best.

Now the question remains, can he go four for four?

The next Auckland Cup week Group 1 is the first Group 1 for the Two year olds the Diamond Stakes over 1200m. James McDonald is riding equal second favourite Rollout the carpet. There is a lot of talent in this race when you look at Choice Bro, Warhorse, Travino, Silk Pins and Croatia amongst others.

Choice Bro has shown eye catching finishes in the Karaka Million (fourth) and winning over Ockhams Razor last start at Taranaki. He has had the benefit of good draws to date and has performed best on a good track, he may not have either on Saturday. The blinkers which came on last start seemed to make a difference. He will be finishing big, but probably down the outside as opposed to the inside as in recent starts.

Warhorse is having his first start in over a month, however he has tended to race with these kind of gaps to date in his career so that should not effect him. A Group 3 winner with talent, he really charged home in the Karaka Million. He is already establishing a strong record at Ellerslie and his win there on New Years day was on a rain effected track. He has the benefit of a better draw so might be able to start his run from a handier position this time.

Travino had his first start back in New Zealand in the Matamata Slipper two weeks ago. The dead track gave him only his second non-win in the New Zealand since his first start (on a slow track). That was his first start in about 6 weeks, his wins have come with 14days, 14days and 21days rest, so expect a better showing here. He has drawn barrier one which should allow him to stay handy $9 fixed odds seems pretty good value if the rain stays away.

Croatia is having his third start. After winning on debut he was able to show a big finish to behind Irish Rebel and Magic Shaft. He has to be confided a contender here.

Mai Guru is having his first start since his fifth in the Karaka Million. I was slightly surprised by that fifth, he seemed to outperform other horses who I might have expected better from. This race is just stacked and he will have to show improvement to finish ahead of Silk Pins, Choice Bro, and Warhorse.

Roof of Reckoning is a maiden runner who was able to show something at Matamata, hard to know if possibly wet ground might help. He looks reasonably talented, but there are some classy runners to beat here.

King Zeus is having his second start and will go from barrier 6. He seemed to improve with trialing and was favourite in his first start. He was beaten by Fix over 1000m, who went on to have a good win on Auckland Cup day. King Zeus showed good fight but was worn down late. I suspect he may be fitter for the run and 1200m may suit.

Rollout the Carpet for James McDonald has drawn 11, but is coming off a form line which looks the same in the race book (1 and 1 been the results of his last two runs). The second win was in the Matamata Breeders Stakes at Group 2 level. She has beaten the fillies, so the question becomes can she beat the boys too? She is good and has looked it in her last two starts. Wetness underfoot does not appear to be an issue. Barrier number 11 may not be a problem if she gets out as well as she has recently, she will want to be handy and in a position to lead them home.

Seleno was very eye catching at New Plymouth last start, she was wide and back and simply flew home. If the track is wet it will suit and you suspect that 2nd up may help. The draw should suit and if she is closer to them starting her run, look out!

Silk Pins was great in the Karaka Million. Before the Karaka Million her record is deceiving, she didn't get a lot of luck in those races. Was third in the Matamata breeders stakes and didn't look as good that day. Happy to give her a chance, but I have a concern on wet ground based on the slow track  New Years day at Ellerslie.

Soriano is currently undefeated. She was a winner late last week at Te Rapa. She is a bit of an enigma here, the win looked very good, but there is a lot of solid exposed form here.

Coat du Roan was good when 6th at Taranaki, was also unlucky when caught up by Ockham's Razor. Throw that race out and there is less to go on. She is almost certainly better than a $41 chance, but you could only take her on potential. Chateauneuf Dupape ran third in this race last year, as that is in the Rhone region maybe a horse called Coat du Roan can feature this year.

The Picks (I am assuming this forecast rain clears and we get back to a good or dead track)
First - Warhorse - This looks much more suitable than the Karaka Million.

Second - Rollout the Carpet - Looks talented, I have spent 1,500 words explaining how this could be Jame McDonald's week.
Third - Choice Bro - Like Rollout the Carpet the draw is a concern, there is no doubt of the talent. He will be coming on at the end.
Fourth - Seleno - Big finish, if she was 6th instead of 9th back she may have won, she will be closer from barrier 2.

In the New Zealand Stakes James McDonald will ride Scarlett Lady against a strong Group 1 field. Veyron is certainly the most dangerous after winning back to back Group 1's and showing that the step to middle distance is not so big after-all on Boxing Day, he loves this track and will be very hard to beat.

Veyron all but eliminated middle distance questions on Boxing Day. I also think his build up to this race has been far better than the build up to boxing day. He will handle all tracks so weather concerns should not be an issue.

Hold it Harvey is always consistent at Group 1 level. He came for them late when stepping back to 1600m at Otaki and was second to Shez Sensational at Te Rapa before that. This is a rare trip to Ellerslie and right handed, but he is hitting the strongest part of his campaign and he is better than when he was last here boxing day 2010.

Doctor Fremantle was good for a surprising third here on Boxing Day.  He didn't get a lot of breaks last time in Hamilton. This is a big ask but he is capable of running in the money.

Showcause has basically been weighted out of the Open Handicap level (although it would have been interesting to see him yesterday). Although he didn't come back the strongest at New Plymouth that is not surprising. He is yet to feature second up either, a stat which is countered by his strong Ellerslie record. He gets better third up, and you might expect he can do something here but not enough to win.

Vosne Romanee won this race two years ago and surprised for a place last year. His last two starts have actually shown a bit of a (relative) resurgence in the nine year old gelding. Don't completely dismiss for old times sake, but there are a lot of better places for your money.

Riomoral has been a big improver over the last couple of months. WFA Group 1 seems a bit optimistic, but the steps towards middle distance have suited him.

Postmans Daughter probably needed a run between the Darci Brahma and this and she got in over 1600m in a Group 1 at Otaki. That was never going to be the ideal race for her but this is definitely where she will look at home. She seems to respond better to 2000m+ and going right handed, drawn barrier 1 will help too. This race looks perfectly set up for her, but it is hard to see her beating Veyron or Scarlett Lady.

Lady Kipling performed very strongly over 1600m at Otaki. She had her first win at Ellerslie two starts back but has twice been fourth at Group 1 level. She has been very consistent recently and the move up to 2000m should put her in a good position.

Scarlett Lady will face her first big test since returning from injury. If this race was run in the spring she probably would have been sole favourite. She has had 1 run back for 1 win but this is tougher. 2000m will surely suit her and she wont mind any rain. She has always been consistent, it was really unfortunate to see injury derailing her spring because she really could have made some noise in Melbourne last year.

Inferno is making her first trip to the big city following a pretty strong run in Matamata last start. This will be a major test but the distance should suit and around 8th up should see her peaking. It is a big ask.

Shuka is trying to become the first 3YO to win an Open level Group 1 this season. Twice in his career he has backed up in under a week and he has run second both times. The step back to 2000m should assist his chances. He is an absolute winning chance here, but yet again he might just be facing too much talent, which has been the story of his career to date.

I hate to go chalk, but it is hard to look past the favourites in this race. Who will win? toss a coin, it could be that close. We have not seen a big Group 1 shock this year, The Party Stand was somewhat of a shock winning this last year.

The Picks
First - Veyron - It just feels like he has put in the work to establish himself as favourite. Winning back to back Group 1's. The 2000m looks right for him and that Ellerslie record is superb.
Second - Scarlett Lady - Can win this based just on class. I think she will take a couple more races to get back to her absolute best, not sure where that will be, Australia?
Third - Postmans Daughter - I think the return to right handed should suit enough for her to improve on the Waikato run.
Fourth - Lady Kipling - Talent on the rise, could be the Cup week shock.

That was tough, I switched 1 and two back and forth several times and also changed up third and fourth with the mares and Hold it Harvey. I think it would pay to keep them safe on the weekend.

Auckland Cup Preview 2012

Amongst the hype of Derby Day you may have missed it, but Titch won his second consecutive Auckland Cup. Preview over. Thanks for reading.

Of course the Auckland Cup is not actually run until later on this afternoon, but Titch ran second in the Nathan's Memorial, a race which has recently been an excellent indicator of Auckland Cup success. It was a close finish, but lucky for him he didn't win, otherwise we would be talking about the Jungle Boy right now. If all of this sounds familiar that is because it is, Titch ran second in this race last year behind Solid Billing (that was another very tight finish on a rain effected track) who went on to run 10th in the Auckland Cup. Forget about Minquar Quaim from two years ago. Three Years ago Spin Around was chased down by Capecover in the Nathan's memorial, he turned the tide the following Wednesday finishing 8 places ahead of Capecover and winning the Cup. Unfortunately, Prize Lady decided to ruin things by not running in the Nathan's Memorial in either 2008 or 2007, running 3rd and 4th in the Auckland Cup prelude (which would now have been the Avondale Cup), she also ran 3rd in that race in 2009.

Where does this leave us in regard to this years Auckland Cup? I really don't know.

A 3200m Open Handicap is a very strange thing. They are so few and far between that many starters will not have run over this distance or run over it very few times. Often prior to running 3200m horses have been racing over 2400m or shorter, that is 800m shorter, so success does not always correlate. It is always interesting to see horses who are 'out of form' when talking about shorter distances stepping up with that further 800m and turning into contenders. Today I wanted to break down the positives and negatives for the runners and look at who can contend.

#1 Six O'Clock News, Barrier 6, 59kg 
The Positives
Is back in form recently and actually winning taking out the Wellington Cup (2400m). He has run 5th and 7th in this race in the past when he has been in similar form. Barrier 6 should see him reasonably well placed in the running to avoid any extra distance. The track should be good for him too.
My Concerns 
Carrying 59kg effectively rules him out for me. He carried 56kg to win the Wellington Cup, and 59kg when last (at WFA) in Hamilton next start.  

#2 Booming, Barrier 20, 58kg
The Positives
He seems to get better with a bit more distance, he looked to improve stepping up from 2000m to 2400m and has placed in his only 3200m start. Auckland also seems to be a track which will see him show an above average performance. Eye catching in the Avondale Cup, was really running on well and drops a kg from that start. 
My Concerns
Although solid this campaign, he has not really found the same form from a year ago. He has been close but until the Avondale Cup has not shown his best. He is facing a big field and will be coming from an outside barrier, he would normally look to come from towards to the back, but over 3200m the possibility of racing wide is very real.


#3 Titch, Barrier 12, 57.5kg
The Positives
Clearly a horse capable of winning over 3200m. Ran home well over the finial stages for second in the Nathan's Memorial.Was able to carry the 57.5kg on the weekend when second, and has carried more recently.
My Concerns
Carrying 3kg more than he carries a year ago in this race for victory. Although he is a Group 1 winner, his previous two wins have been for 15k and 20k and at courses abbreviated TAUH and WROA. I googled these to discover they are Wairoa and Tauherenikau, again I turned to Google to discover Wairoa is in the northern Hawkes Bay and Tauherenikau is in Martinborough, which is in the Wairarapa. Whilst I will apologise for my geographical ignorance, it is evident he has not been facing the toughest of competition since his Auckland Cup victory.

#4 Spiro, Barrier 3, 57.5kg
The Positives
Has looked in good form with strong performances carrying more weight in the Wellington and Taranaki Cups. He definitely gets better with racing, this is his 9th start up this time which should see him at peak performance. He stepped back from 2400m in the Wellington Cup to 1800m, and it looked like a few more meters might have been helpful. He showed good fight in Wellington when Six O'Clock News was too good, 3200m will be a first.
My Concerns
He is not only venturing to Ellerslie for the first time, he will be having his first start right handed. Is this a question mark we should be thinking about? It is also his first 3200m start, although he has shown it is likely to not be too big of a concern.

#5 Shez Sensational, Barrier 19, 55kg
The Positives
She will carry only 55kg on a decent surface. She is a dual Group 1 winner this year already and has shown her ability to stay in Queensland last winter.
My Concerns
He run on the weekend, but they have really been addressed by James McDonald after that race. The distance is still a concern, and the wide draw could always lead to an difficult position, but it might be less critical with 3200m to run, particularity given James McDonald's ability to read a race a break from the norm as required, like we saw on Silent Achiever on Saturday.

#6 Single Minded, Barrier 11, 54kg
The Positives
Won the Avondale Cup in strong fashion. Has been very consistent of late rising through the grades as a stayer. He has performed well at Ellerslie and will actually carry less weight here than in either of his last two victories.
My Concerns
He possibly still lacks experience and is still getting used to running against this level of competition. 3200m is an unknown, and this is tougher than either of his last wins in Auckland.

#7 The Jungle Boy, Barrier 17, 54kg
The Positives
Finally broke his duck at Ellerslie with a win in his 11th start, is this the start of a streak? or will there be another gap between victories? He showed a good finish on the weekend and will again reduce his weight by 1.5kg. Placed over 3200m.
My Concerns
His overall record at Ellerslie is no good, although as I have written before there is not really a logical reason for that. He does like a wet surface, he will be unlikely to see that later today.

#8 Blood Brotha, Barrier 8, 54kg
The Positives
New Zealand Cup winner who is only carrying .5kg more from that race. Gets better over more ground. Good third in the Avondale Cup which looked to signal a bit of a return to form. This will be the first time with the same jockey back to back since February 2011. He might be getting back to best form at the right time.
My Concerns
Last two victories have come on Heavy tracks including the New Zealand Cup victory.


#9 Back in Black, Barrier 1, 54kg
The Positives
Last start was his best run since the spring. Will be able to race to his strength and stay handy from the inside barrier.The Jungle Boy broke a long Ellerslie drought on Saturday, maybe he will follow suit. 54kg is a lot lighter than recent runs, may be some merit.
My Concerns
Horrible Ellerslie record, no wins from 16 attempts (like the Jungle Boy it is surprising considering he has an otherwise strong right handed record). Tends to win early, is now 15th up. The biggest race he has won was worth $40k. Yet to win, or place, over 2000m.

#10 Castle Heights, Barrier 21, 54kg
The Positives
Placed in this race a year ago. Was pretty good up until the Avondale Cup. He should be able to show a strongish finish in this race. Down to 54kg which is still 2kg more than a year ago, but much lighter than recent starts.
My Concerns
Has not actually won since 2009. Would have expected a better Avondale Cup run as was looking in better form before that. He is drawn one of the widest,

#11 Loose Change, Barrier 23, 53.5kg
The Positives
Very experienced at 2400m, finishing off races well most of the time recently. Will get a good track which is what he needs. He looks to improve with a bit more racing, so should be ready to put forward a good effort.
My Concerns
Possibly looks a bit outclassed in this field. Limited experience at Ellerslie or on right handed tracks. 53.5kg is light, but has not really been carrying that much more when losing in pretty strong races. Drawn way outside.


#12 Aussieaussieaussie, Barrier 4, 52.5kg
The Positives
Had his best result in the North Island recently,  he does tend to get better with a bit of racing, so he could go well in this type of race.
My Concerns
Has never won outside of the South Island. He tends to get better on a wetter surface. He has never won over more than 1800m. Given a lack of strong 2400m performances you have to be concerned about the 3200m trip.

#13 Yours, Barrier 22, 52.5kg
The Positives
Close up to Titch two starts back while carrying 59kgs. Has now had two starts over the distance, with a good performance for 4th in the New Zealand Cup.
My Concerns
Was second last in the Avondale Cup, that was a tough race, but this is tougher, was running on, but will only carry 1kg less.

#14 Options, Barrier 7, 52kg
The Positives
Genuine lightweight chance, in form and has looked good winning on the course. Always a lightweight runner who shows up strong for a race like this. Was very impressive over 2000m winning easily at Matamata. Adjusting well to racing in the North Island.
My Concerns
Longest win/race has only been 2100m, this is a lot further. New to the open handicap level, has been improving but Group 1 level should represent a step up.

#15 Innocent Lady, Barrier 24, 52kg
The Positives
Lightweight chance who has previously looked decent running over 3200m. Was not in great form prior to 4th in this race last year.She is definitely one of those runners when I see the distance I get a bit more interested, and when I see that weight I sort of think "Really! only 52 kilos?"
My Concerns
Far from best form, has had a very bad year to date. Badly drawn. Despite my first reaction I watched the Avondale Cup, I don't think she really can figure here.

#16 Peace Lilly, Barrier 7, 52kg
The Positives
A runner who seems to be getting better at running at open handicap level, the think I like is that while this is a step up from Rating 85, she was at the top of that grade and carrying high weights, the drop to 52kg is very tempting. Has done well at racing and 5 of her 6 wins have been right handed.
My Concerns
She has possibly performed best recently on tracks which are more rain effected, but has a consistent overall record on all tracks. This still seems like a step up in class from the races she has been winning.

#17 Jaffa Jack, Barrier 10, 52kg
The Positives
 Jaffa Jack has performed well over more distance, probably 3200m will suit given the strength he has shown over distance on wet tracks.
My Concerns
It is going to be a bit too dry for this stayer to feature. A seven year old with 22 career starts, who has only recently been running at open level, even with the lightweight this is a step up.

#18 Top Spot, Barrier 11, 52kg
The Positives
Has performed well carrying similar weights in races over 2400m.  He has performed well at Ellerslie recently, particularly the 3rd in the City of Auckland Cup carrying more weight.
My Concerns
Ideally you would probably want a slightly wetter track to see his best. Last win was first up over 1400m at rating 85 level, this is a lot tougher.

The Picks
Value Win - Options ($12) - Pretty good for a chance to win at that light weight.
Value Place - Top Spot ($9) - I could actually see it winning, but it is a bit tough, it is definitely a place chance and $9 is pretty good value for the place.
Longest shot I can see coming - Top Spot ($31) - If things go right I could see it.

First -  Single Minded - ($6.50) - Was so impressive in the Avondale Cup, I can see him going on here and stepping up over 3200m.
Second - Shez Sensational - ($1.40p) - Simply too classy not to be in the picture.
Third - Options - ($4p) - A leightweight should figure here.
Fourth - Spiro - ($5.20p) - I think think he will figure in this race, I think 3200m is looking light the right distance and I can see him winning this. 


There are so many chances, I really find it hard to completely rule out anyone under the $21 mark. I think Shez Sensational is clearly the most talented, but there is definitely some concerns from the weekend run.