Three weeks ago when Mufhasa was running in Tauranga his past three race day starts had included victories in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap, the Group 1 Makfi Challenge Stakes, and a second in the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate. The field he was facing had combined to win $2.6m, just a touch under what Mufhasa has accumulated in his esteemed career to date. I was sure he was going to win.
Last Friday Antonio Lombardo was facing a capacity Levin Classic field, however with the absence of other 3YO Group 1 winners, the field featured just two other horses who had won or placed above Listed level (Duckworth Lewis, and Distil), it featured only another two horses who had won at listed level, and a further one who had placed at that level. Andonio Lombardo came into the race having won his last three, in his career he has won three at group level and a further two listed races, he beat Anabandana last start and was second in a Group 1 as a two year old, the next best placed Group 1 runner in this race was Distil with a 4th ($36 is what he paid people!). I was sure he was going to win.
The point of this post is not to point out all of the times when I was sure something was going to happen and it didn't, there is not enough space on the Internet for that. I was not alone in my certainty of Mufhasa and Antonio Lombardo victories, they paid $1.40 and $1.70 in those races. Obviously favourites don't always win, if they did, what would be the point, every winner would pay $1. There were certainly signs that Distil was a contender in that race last week, as well as several other runners who all featured in the top six or so, and there were signs that Antonio Lombardo might not be the dominant horse in that race (although I think he was unlucky and had to expend effort early on, he featured heavily in the stewards report). The point of this post is to look at some likely favourites and figure out why you should not be so sure.
This was supposed to be a post focusing on all of the races in New Zealand which contained favourites which people appeared to be sure of, however as of the writing of this post there is only fixed odds out for six of the twenty odd races in New Zealand tomorrow, the only favourite at this point people appear to be sure of is Mufhasa, here are the reasons he will not win.
As little as six months ago I would not have considered Mufhasa a 1600m horse at this level, however now he has won and placed at Group 1 level in the last couple of months. His overall record includes four wins of twelve starts at that distance. He was beaten last start, but that was due to over racing early and wearing himself out a bit and even then he was just beaten late. He had 35 days off between runs before that start at Tauranga, he will be much better for that and ready to win here.
For Mufhasa to lose this he will either have to perform badly or be beaten by a better horse, who might be that better horse?
Hold it Harvey won impressively course and distance in March, he was good in the Coupland Mile and the Windsor Park plate. He chased Mufhasa home in Hastings but he has had two starts since then, he definitely improves with a bit of racing, from barrier four he will get a chance to follow Mufhasa and compete late.
Booming had a great year last year, and although he would typically like a bit more distance he did win a Group 1 over this distance last year. He looked good in Australia which was tougher than this, he is a good horse and should be more than comfortable in this company.
Vosne Romanee, was amazing a couple of years ago but his form has not really returned. A triple group one winner is always a threat, but will need some improvement.
Bragato, you have to respect the win on the course and distance recently, but the conditions should be better tomorrow than that day. He is well acquainted with the track and has had a good year, but this seems like a big step up.
Vonusti has only won once at 1600m, and only won once at Wellington, however that was at Group 1 level. That group one victory was his last victory, but he has put forward a lot of great close performances since then. Some of his top performances have been over 1600m, and he came home very strongly in a top field at Ellerslie last start. He might be the best chance to upset the favourite.
Platiunm Princess is the first of the mares in this race, she is in form winning the Coupland's mile. The WFA conditions should cause some problems, the highest weight she has carried to victory is 56.5kg but you still have to consider the form.
Dating is a real chance if you go off the Hawera victory. The barrier inside Mufhasa should be useful and give Jonathan Riddell a chance to position the horse to show another flying finish.
Banchee is a 1600m Group 1 winner as a 3YO. She is class and definitely has not received all the favours in her last two starts.
Elusive Tracy is a nice mare who has looked pretty good recently. This is a big step up for her, but she seems to go well on the course, hard to take at Group 1 level.
Of the horses I am mentioned I can genuinely see a few of them beating Mufhasa if things go their way, Banchee and Dating are real chances, Vonusti and Hold it Harvey have the form and experience to challenge, and Vosne Romanee is a wild card. Booming is back in New Zealand where he was so good last year. Platinum Princess might step up to WFA conditions and maybe Bragato and Elusive Tracy will surprise. However I still think Mufhasa looks the one to beat... I am sure of it.
Wednesday, 30 November 2011
Thursday, 24 November 2011
Levin Classic Preview
It is raining hard outside, it is almost 11am on Thursday morning, I am in Auckland, the Levin Classic starts in around thirty hours, there is allegedly 557 kilometers between my location here and the racetrack in Levin, a quick check of the forecast shows that we should expect a lot of rain over the North Island of New Zealand today. The Levin track is currently rated a Dead 4. The TAB odd's are up, Antonio Lombardo is a hot favourite while Duckworth Lewis is paying in the $16 range.
A few weeks ago nominations for this race included the horses mentioned above as well as other hot 3YO's, Burgundy, Anabandana, Rock'n'Pop, and Planet Rock. Now the 2011 Levin Classic Group 1 is headlined by Antonio Lombardo, who I would have had on top even if this race included these other 3YO's. Currently this race includes only two of my top ten ranked three year old's (even if you include the honourable mentions).
After saying all of that the field for this race still looks very interesting and may include a number of other up-coming 3YO's who may not have had the opportunity to shine. It is hard to preview this with the conditions uncertain. I will assume that we are going to end up with a dead to slow track.
Last year this race was interesting, we know Jimmy Choux ran last, he had a health issue. The race was won by We Can Say It Now and we know she was a very good filly. The first four places were all fillies. The dividends were high, Blinding was paying $25 and $5 for the place, and Lady Kipling paying $62 and $13 for the place, Blinding ran 15th in the Auckland Breeders Stakes last weekend, and Lady Kipling has looked very good this year. There are only three fillies in the race this year, and a lot of the runners are paying in excess of $20.
(#1) Antonio Lombardo (6) - Will win this race, has won on up to heavy tracks, he is a Group 1 quality horse.
(#2) Duckworth Lewis (16) - Barrier 16, he should move in depending on the emergencies and scratchings, but may be stuck wide. Is this the worst thing? maybe not, if it is wet his chances go up in my opinion. Two weeks ago Planet Rock won the Guineas racing wide and finding better ground, that could be the key for Duckworth Lewis. The third in the Wellington Guineas was interesting because this horse actually cut the corner and raced in what may have been the wetter part of the track. This horse will not have a problem running wide or on wet ground. He has also won over 2000m, so even running wide on a wet track this horse should be fresh in the finish.Currently $16, great odds.
(#3) Brackenwood (4) - Second up as a three year old. Ran a second first up to the improving Shanghai Bund, but may not have had many favours in that race. He won twice as a 2YO and seems pretty consistent. He was good early as at 2YO. He may be in the first few here.
(#4) Estrato (15) - A horse I like a lot, however I had him ranked higher before the Hawkes Bay Guineas run. In this field he looks very well placed, the problem is going to be doing something useful from that draw. In Hawkes Bay it was the first time in his career he had drawn a double digit draw and he got caught wide, barrier fifteen is not going to suit.
(#5) Shanghai Bund (7) - Flashed home in the Guineas and with this field lacking other Group 1 winners he has come into favour with the bookmakers. He performed well in Australia as a 2YO and has looked good at age three. If the track is wet it will be something new, but that is the case for a lot of runners.
(#6) Randall (18) - Won two of four starts, however the outside barrier will hurt his chances to win. The win at Tauranga was good, he looked brave and seemed to fight well. Jason Collett is in form and generally one of the best, however it is hard to have winning.
(#7) San Rafael (10) - Start number four. This is to be a rise in class, but that is true for a lot of these runners. Hard to see him beating Antonio Lombardo.
(#8) Distil (9) - I liked him as a 2YO, he ran 4th in a Group 1. His two runs at age three have not been good dropping out and having to work hard from bad positions, I suspect the Wellington run was a lot to do with the wet conditions, so on better ground he is definitely worth considering in this field.
(#9) Danny Ricardo (11) - Should handle the track conditions, recently broke maidens. Just not sure he has been doing enough to recommend.
(#10) Platinum Playboy (14) - Finished 5.4 lengths behind Randall last start and is drawn badly here.
(#11) Release Me (8) - Looks to be lining up well here. Hayden Tinsley will be going for a second Group 1 this season, he was caught wide at Tauranga and nearly beat Randall, he looks consistent and should be suited to 1600m. The fact he has performed best on good tracks may concern people but $21 at this stage looks like good value for a good place chance.
(#12) Viking Ace (3) - I do like his chances. The draw should suit and 1600m should not be a worry.
(#13) Urunga (12) - Consistent, but yet to win one.
(#14) Whoshe (2) - I think this horse is toying with me. I keep going back and forth and have essentially ruled her out as an elite 3YO. This this race comes along and I look at the good draw, the strong record on less than good tracks, the fact that she has at least been consistent despite probably under-performing her odds, I look at the quality of a field and the class she has been racing against. She is currently paying $26, which makes her equal 10th favourite. She is much better than that. Why can't she run 2nd of 3rd in this?
(#15) Lego (1) - Should be on the speed, assuming Antonio Lombardo goes to the lead she should get a good trip, maybe can handle the rain, worth considering.
(#16) Smoke'N'Mirrors (17) - Despite the consistency, in this field, from that draw she is hard to take.
The result
It is hard to see Antonio Lombardo not winning this, he is just the better horse. I think Whoshe will be there and Duckworth Lewis will go well enough from the wide draw to be in place contention. Shanghai Bund has to be considered, and despite the draw Estrato is simply better than a lot of these runners.
I have gone for experience in my picks, I like Antonio Lombardo to win, but would really not be surprised by any order from that point on.
First - Antonio Lombardo
Second - Whoshe
Third - Shanghai Bund
Forth - Duckworth Lewis
Hard to leave out - Release Me, Estrato, Brackenwood
Rough but value - Lego, Viking Ace.
A few weeks ago nominations for this race included the horses mentioned above as well as other hot 3YO's, Burgundy, Anabandana, Rock'n'Pop, and Planet Rock. Now the 2011 Levin Classic Group 1 is headlined by Antonio Lombardo, who I would have had on top even if this race included these other 3YO's. Currently this race includes only two of my top ten ranked three year old's (even if you include the honourable mentions).
After saying all of that the field for this race still looks very interesting and may include a number of other up-coming 3YO's who may not have had the opportunity to shine. It is hard to preview this with the conditions uncertain. I will assume that we are going to end up with a dead to slow track.
Last year this race was interesting, we know Jimmy Choux ran last, he had a health issue. The race was won by We Can Say It Now and we know she was a very good filly. The first four places were all fillies. The dividends were high, Blinding was paying $25 and $5 for the place, and Lady Kipling paying $62 and $13 for the place, Blinding ran 15th in the Auckland Breeders Stakes last weekend, and Lady Kipling has looked very good this year. There are only three fillies in the race this year, and a lot of the runners are paying in excess of $20.
(#1) Antonio Lombardo (6) - Will win this race, has won on up to heavy tracks, he is a Group 1 quality horse.
(#2) Duckworth Lewis (16) - Barrier 16, he should move in depending on the emergencies and scratchings, but may be stuck wide. Is this the worst thing? maybe not, if it is wet his chances go up in my opinion. Two weeks ago Planet Rock won the Guineas racing wide and finding better ground, that could be the key for Duckworth Lewis. The third in the Wellington Guineas was interesting because this horse actually cut the corner and raced in what may have been the wetter part of the track. This horse will not have a problem running wide or on wet ground. He has also won over 2000m, so even running wide on a wet track this horse should be fresh in the finish.Currently $16, great odds.
(#3) Brackenwood (4) - Second up as a three year old. Ran a second first up to the improving Shanghai Bund, but may not have had many favours in that race. He won twice as a 2YO and seems pretty consistent. He was good early as at 2YO. He may be in the first few here.
(#4) Estrato (15) - A horse I like a lot, however I had him ranked higher before the Hawkes Bay Guineas run. In this field he looks very well placed, the problem is going to be doing something useful from that draw. In Hawkes Bay it was the first time in his career he had drawn a double digit draw and he got caught wide, barrier fifteen is not going to suit.
(#5) Shanghai Bund (7) - Flashed home in the Guineas and with this field lacking other Group 1 winners he has come into favour with the bookmakers. He performed well in Australia as a 2YO and has looked good at age three. If the track is wet it will be something new, but that is the case for a lot of runners.
(#6) Randall (18) - Won two of four starts, however the outside barrier will hurt his chances to win. The win at Tauranga was good, he looked brave and seemed to fight well. Jason Collett is in form and generally one of the best, however it is hard to have winning.
(#7) San Rafael (10) - Start number four. This is to be a rise in class, but that is true for a lot of these runners. Hard to see him beating Antonio Lombardo.
(#8) Distil (9) - I liked him as a 2YO, he ran 4th in a Group 1. His two runs at age three have not been good dropping out and having to work hard from bad positions, I suspect the Wellington run was a lot to do with the wet conditions, so on better ground he is definitely worth considering in this field.
(#9) Danny Ricardo (11) - Should handle the track conditions, recently broke maidens. Just not sure he has been doing enough to recommend.
(#10) Platinum Playboy (14) - Finished 5.4 lengths behind Randall last start and is drawn badly here.
(#11) Release Me (8) - Looks to be lining up well here. Hayden Tinsley will be going for a second Group 1 this season, he was caught wide at Tauranga and nearly beat Randall, he looks consistent and should be suited to 1600m. The fact he has performed best on good tracks may concern people but $21 at this stage looks like good value for a good place chance.
(#12) Viking Ace (3) - I do like his chances. The draw should suit and 1600m should not be a worry.
(#13) Urunga (12) - Consistent, but yet to win one.
(#14) Whoshe (2) - I think this horse is toying with me. I keep going back and forth and have essentially ruled her out as an elite 3YO. This this race comes along and I look at the good draw, the strong record on less than good tracks, the fact that she has at least been consistent despite probably under-performing her odds, I look at the quality of a field and the class she has been racing against. She is currently paying $26, which makes her equal 10th favourite. She is much better than that. Why can't she run 2nd of 3rd in this?
(#15) Lego (1) - Should be on the speed, assuming Antonio Lombardo goes to the lead she should get a good trip, maybe can handle the rain, worth considering.
(#16) Smoke'N'Mirrors (17) - Despite the consistency, in this field, from that draw she is hard to take.
The result
It is hard to see Antonio Lombardo not winning this, he is just the better horse. I think Whoshe will be there and Duckworth Lewis will go well enough from the wide draw to be in place contention. Shanghai Bund has to be considered, and despite the draw Estrato is simply better than a lot of these runners.
I have gone for experience in my picks, I like Antonio Lombardo to win, but would really not be surprised by any order from that point on.
First - Antonio Lombardo
Second - Whoshe
Third - Shanghai Bund
Forth - Duckworth Lewis
Hard to leave out - Release Me, Estrato, Brackenwood
Rough but value - Lego, Viking Ace.
Tuesday, 15 November 2011
Horse Racing Fantasy League
I have recently alluded to an idea I have for a Horse Racing based fantasy league. I know there are other games out there like Star Stable,
which is fine, but it has a couple of flaws, it is budget based, so you
select horses you like, you can buy and sell like a stock market and
generate value with win's
etc. The two flaws are, you make initial selections and anything can
change because you don't know who will qualify for what and who will
target what races, the second is that it is based on the horse (for the
most part), as most horses don't race every week you can be left with
not much action each week.
The other fun thing about fantasy sports is the draft, getting together and making selections round after round, mocking your buddies selections, and searching for sleepers. Also it means that every 'player' can only be owned once which brings skill and strategy into place.
My fantasy game suggestion.
You will have drafted 40 jockeys and 32 trainers (eight team league). If you look at last years premierships the 32nd ranked trainer (combo) was Graeme and Mark Sanders, the 40th ranked Jockey was Trudy Thornton.
Trudy Thornton rode 517 horses last year, there are plenty of other jockeys remaining so it is possible to take another ten (ten team league) from that pool and still leave a good sized free agent pool. Graeme and Mark Sanders trained 202 runners last season, again there are plenty of other trainers with similar numbers so it is possible to draft another eight (ten team league) and keep a free agent pool.
Starters
Each week you will pick from your team
You can drop and pick up 'free agents' (unselected jockeys/trainers), you can also make trades with other players however your total team size should not exceed nine players. To score points you must start players as described above.
The season
There is flexibility here, your league can choose to only play Saturdays or weekends or play full weeks. As there is racing 52 weeks of the year you can either play a full year, or just play seasons maybe spring/summer/winter (ie. saying the season will start from 1st August and conclude on the 30th of November).
For the purposes of a week I suggest that team line ups are locked on Wednesday night, and scoring runs from Thursday through to the following Wednesday races. The reason for this is that most of the big scoring races will take place on Saturdays and you will have access to nominations for these by Wednesday night.
There is flexibility again on how you arrange your league, but there are two basic models
The match-up model
Scoring
This is definitely a work in progress which can be tinkered with over time to get a good balance. Obviously can be adapted for your region, I am going to focus on New Zealand racing. I will put my rational in brackets where explanation may be required.
Starter = -1 point (by subtracting points for a starter it rewards strike rate)
Winner = 10 points
2nd = 7 points
3rd = 5 points
4th = 3 points
5th = 2 points
6th = 1 point
7th - nth 0 points
Pretty simple, more points for winning races. However there should be a reward for winning more important races.
Race at listed level 125% of points
Race at Group 3 level 150% of points
Race at Group 2 level 200% of points
Race at Group 1 level 300% of points
Now there is another issue, in New Zealand often our horses head across to Australia to race when the big carnivals are approaching. The solution, if you start a jockey or trainer who is taking a horse to Australia you will score double points (after the Group multiplier, so winning an Aussie Group 1 is worth 60 points). Often jockeys will only have one or two rides that day rather than the six or seven they may have got in New Zealand so this is more of a measure to even things up
There need to be a distinction between jockeys who have moved overseas and ones who are just over for a day, so if a jockey rides exclusively in Australia for two consecutive weeks they are ineligible for future weeks unless they have a start in New Zealand. The best recent example might be someone like Jason Collett, if he was to have another stint in Sydney, the first two weeks after his last New Zealand start will score points, but he will not score future points until he has had another start in New Zealand.
Trainers again should score for taking a horse across for a big Aussie race, but not if that horse is exclusively raced from an Aussie base (otherwise things get too complicated), so maybe allow five consecutive starts overseas of one horse before that horse is ruled out of counting for that trainer.
The other alternative is simply not to include Aussie points, but it makes a nice wrinkle if you draft a jockey or trainer with an association with a potential big race winner you deserve a nice reward.
I would suggest similar rules for taking horses to other destinations, but Aussie is by far the most common.
We should also reward jockeys and trainers who have big days.
3 winners = 15 bonus points
4 winners = 30 bonus points
5 winners = 50 bonus points
6+ Winners = 80 bonus points
Training a winning Quinella = 15 bonus points
Training a winning Trifecta = 30 bonus points
Training a winning First four = 50 bonus points
All total scores will be rounded to a whole number.
Now to test these numbers we need to do a quick calculation to see how this would have worked, I will base this on Saturday's Christchurch meeting.
As you can see there are a few high scores amongst the jockeys, no surprises to see the leaders are clearly highly rated jockeys, but also they are consistent and had success in the big races on the day. The negative scores are not too bad and it is most likely that jockeys with very few rides would not have been started anyway (depending on what other rides they might have in a given week).
There are clearly more trainers than jockeys, however most of these represent smaller trainers who probably would not be started unless they had a Group One contender. Points here compare quite well with the jockeys. Only 15 bonus points were awarded on the day, but generally top scorers represent larger and more consistent stables, and success in big races. Obviously a trainer can be in two places at once in this game so some North Island trainers would have also scored at Tauranga on the day, and both jockeys and trainers would have scored throughout the week.
These spreadsheets took a bit to put together, I would suggest that either your league designates a scorer and it rotates for each week, each individual match-up is scored by someone in that match-up or both players, people score for themselves and an honour system is adhered to. Clearly if you are scoring you don't have to worry about every trainer and jockey, only the ones playing that week which should save a lot of time.
The Prize
Well that is up to you, have fun, make a trophy, throw in a certain amount of money each and enjoy.
Obviously this can be tweaked to fit your league however you want. Maybe someone will make an automated online game to save time and effort, maybe one already exists, I couldn't find one from having a search around the net. Fantasy sports are big business and an excellent way for people to get added enjoyment out of a sport, it could definitely work for racing, so get together with your mates and give it a go.
The other fun thing about fantasy sports is the draft, getting together and making selections round after round, mocking your buddies selections, and searching for sleepers. Also it means that every 'player' can only be owned once which brings skill and strategy into place.
My fantasy game suggestion.
- An eight or ten team league (only eight or ten for a reason which will soon become clear)
- You draft in Snake fashion (pick 1-8 in round one 8-1 in round two etc)
- You each select five jockeys, and select four trainers (or training combos per the premiership)
- You can either do a separate trainer and jockey draft or combine them (which will force you to figure out who is more valuable).
You will have drafted 40 jockeys and 32 trainers (eight team league). If you look at last years premierships the 32nd ranked trainer (combo) was Graeme and Mark Sanders, the 40th ranked Jockey was Trudy Thornton.
Trudy Thornton rode 517 horses last year, there are plenty of other jockeys remaining so it is possible to take another ten (ten team league) from that pool and still leave a good sized free agent pool. Graeme and Mark Sanders trained 202 runners last season, again there are plenty of other trainers with similar numbers so it is possible to draft another eight (ten team league) and keep a free agent pool.
Starters
Each week you will pick from your team
- three Jockeys
- two trainers
- one wild card (either a jockey or trainer)
You can drop and pick up 'free agents' (unselected jockeys/trainers), you can also make trades with other players however your total team size should not exceed nine players. To score points you must start players as described above.
The season
There is flexibility here, your league can choose to only play Saturdays or weekends or play full weeks. As there is racing 52 weeks of the year you can either play a full year, or just play seasons maybe spring/summer/winter (ie. saying the season will start from 1st August and conclude on the 30th of November).
For the purposes of a week I suggest that team line ups are locked on Wednesday night, and scoring runs from Thursday through to the following Wednesday races. The reason for this is that most of the big scoring races will take place on Saturdays and you will have access to nominations for these by Wednesday night.
There is flexibility again on how you arrange your league, but there are two basic models
The match-up model
- Either split into two divisions or just one large league table
- Work out weekly match ups of two teams (maybe each team plays each other twice, or each team plays it's own division twice and the other division once) whatever you decide it just best just to make it even.
- Have a win/loss/draw ladder
- Top four teams make the playoffs with two weeks to determine a winner, or two division winners make the playoffs and then the two teams with the best overall record, again this is flexible.
- simply tally points each week and most points at seasons end wins
- or tally points each week, assign a value for where you finish each week (ie.1st = 10, 2nd =8, 3rd = 6, 4th =5, 5th = 4, 6th= 3, 7th =2, 8th = 1) tally these each week and most points at year ends wins.
Scoring
This is definitely a work in progress which can be tinkered with over time to get a good balance. Obviously can be adapted for your region, I am going to focus on New Zealand racing. I will put my rational in brackets where explanation may be required.
Starter = -1 point (by subtracting points for a starter it rewards strike rate)
Winner = 10 points
2nd = 7 points
3rd = 5 points
4th = 3 points
5th = 2 points
6th = 1 point
7th - nth 0 points
Pretty simple, more points for winning races. However there should be a reward for winning more important races.
Race at listed level 125% of points
Race at Group 3 level 150% of points
Race at Group 2 level 200% of points
Race at Group 1 level 300% of points
Now there is another issue, in New Zealand often our horses head across to Australia to race when the big carnivals are approaching. The solution, if you start a jockey or trainer who is taking a horse to Australia you will score double points (after the Group multiplier, so winning an Aussie Group 1 is worth 60 points). Often jockeys will only have one or two rides that day rather than the six or seven they may have got in New Zealand so this is more of a measure to even things up
There need to be a distinction between jockeys who have moved overseas and ones who are just over for a day, so if a jockey rides exclusively in Australia for two consecutive weeks they are ineligible for future weeks unless they have a start in New Zealand. The best recent example might be someone like Jason Collett, if he was to have another stint in Sydney, the first two weeks after his last New Zealand start will score points, but he will not score future points until he has had another start in New Zealand.
Trainers again should score for taking a horse across for a big Aussie race, but not if that horse is exclusively raced from an Aussie base (otherwise things get too complicated), so maybe allow five consecutive starts overseas of one horse before that horse is ruled out of counting for that trainer.
The other alternative is simply not to include Aussie points, but it makes a nice wrinkle if you draft a jockey or trainer with an association with a potential big race winner you deserve a nice reward.
I would suggest similar rules for taking horses to other destinations, but Aussie is by far the most common.
We should also reward jockeys and trainers who have big days.
3 winners = 15 bonus points
4 winners = 30 bonus points
5 winners = 50 bonus points
6+ Winners = 80 bonus points
Training a winning Quinella = 15 bonus points
Training a winning Trifecta = 30 bonus points
Training a winning First four = 50 bonus points
All total scores will be rounded to a whole number.
Now to test these numbers we need to do a quick calculation to see how this would have worked, I will base this on Saturday's Christchurch meeting.
As you can see there are a few high scores amongst the jockeys, no surprises to see the leaders are clearly highly rated jockeys, but also they are consistent and had success in the big races on the day. The negative scores are not too bad and it is most likely that jockeys with very few rides would not have been started anyway (depending on what other rides they might have in a given week).
There are clearly more trainers than jockeys, however most of these represent smaller trainers who probably would not be started unless they had a Group One contender. Points here compare quite well with the jockeys. Only 15 bonus points were awarded on the day, but generally top scorers represent larger and more consistent stables, and success in big races. Obviously a trainer can be in two places at once in this game so some North Island trainers would have also scored at Tauranga on the day, and both jockeys and trainers would have scored throughout the week.
These spreadsheets took a bit to put together, I would suggest that either your league designates a scorer and it rotates for each week, each individual match-up is scored by someone in that match-up or both players, people score for themselves and an honour system is adhered to. Clearly if you are scoring you don't have to worry about every trainer and jockey, only the ones playing that week which should save a lot of time.
The Prize
Well that is up to you, have fun, make a trophy, throw in a certain amount of money each and enjoy.
Obviously this can be tweaked to fit your league however you want. Maybe someone will make an automated online game to save time and effort, maybe one already exists, I couldn't find one from having a search around the net. Fantasy sports are big business and an excellent way for people to get added enjoyment out of a sport, it could definitely work for racing, so get together with your mates and give it a go.
Monday, 14 November 2011
3YO Power Rankings - November
We have had a Kiwi winner of the Victorian Derby and two 3YO Group 1's since the last edition of the Power Rankings. It has been a pretty good couple of weeks for Fastnet Rock with two of his progeny becoming Group 1 winners in the Guineas races. Once again this is a count down from ten to one, brackets to indicate the ranking last month.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings: Holy Moly (6), Shuka (7), Artistic (10)
Honourable Mention: Abeautifulred (hardest omission), Artistic (confusing run), Shanghai Bund (another great John Sargent middle distance horse?), Prestigious Miss (Not nominated for anything, injured?). Shuka (give another chance)
Number 10 - Burgundy (3) - He didn't have it in the 2000 Guineas, however he has to stay in the rankings because it appears he may have an excuse. Not sure when he will be back, but his performances up until this point indicate he will be a contender in whatever event that is.
Number 9 - Dollario (N/A) - Brilliant and gutsy leading run in the 2000 Guineas. As others were dropping out of it he seemed to keep finding more, we may look back at that third and the two who beat him in a years time and understand that he was simply beaten by two outstanding horses.
Number 8 - Duckworth Lewis (N/A) - Obviously he was not eligible to run in the 1000 Guineas, however after looking at his past two starts you cannot help but feel the conditions would have suited him. He has really emerged recently and should be an interesting contender in the Levin Classic.
Number 7 -President Lincoln (8) - Another Gelding who the connections might have wished was a Filly after looking at the track conditions in Christchurch on the weekend. Like Duckworth Lewis he will be very interesting at the Levin Classic in a couple of weeks if we have a wet November.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (HM) - The Wellington run is the real enigma, lesser company than the victory on the weekend in the Thousand Guineas, both runs were on Heavy tracks, I think I will chalk it up to targeting the Guineas and getting fitter from that Wellington run. The run on the weekend was an interesting performance as she rode three wide without cover, that actually seemed to work to her advantage as she found herself on better ground for the finish despite having to cover more distance than some of the others, you have to give the credit to Hayden Tinsley who described it has an 'underrated' place to be.
Number 5 - Anabandana (2) - Scratched from the Thousand Guineas on the weekend due to track conditions. Seemed well placed throughout the 2000 Guineas and just couldn't quite overcome a strong performance from Rock'n'Pop.
Number 4 - Rock'n'Pop (9) - Got the dream run in the 2k Guineas and won well with Anabandana chasing hard. He is nominated in the Levin Classic, it is hard to know how he rates against Antonio Lombardo as they both were able to overcome Anabandana by similar margins last start.
Number 3 - Dowager Queen (4) - Since winning her last start in New Zealand in September she has traveled to Australia and performed very well placing in four of her five starts at Group level. It is not clear what she will be looking at when she returns to New Zealand, however she will shape up well against other 3YO's.
Number 2 - Antonio Lombardo (1) - Lost top spot in the rankings only on the strength of the victory of the top ranked horse. Currently aiming at the Levin Classic (which is shaping up to be a special race), it is not clear if we will see this colt before November 25th.
Number 1 - Sangster (4) - Held on to win the Victorian Derby impressively, that warrants a jump up the rankings. Hard to know when we will next see this 3YO, however one would assume that the Auckland Derby is a distinct possibility.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings: Holy Moly (6), Shuka (7), Artistic (10)
Honourable Mention: Abeautifulred (hardest omission), Artistic (confusing run), Shanghai Bund (another great John Sargent middle distance horse?), Prestigious Miss (Not nominated for anything, injured?). Shuka (give another chance)
Number 10 - Burgundy (3) - He didn't have it in the 2000 Guineas, however he has to stay in the rankings because it appears he may have an excuse. Not sure when he will be back, but his performances up until this point indicate he will be a contender in whatever event that is.
Number 9 - Dollario (N/A) - Brilliant and gutsy leading run in the 2000 Guineas. As others were dropping out of it he seemed to keep finding more, we may look back at that third and the two who beat him in a years time and understand that he was simply beaten by two outstanding horses.
Number 8 - Duckworth Lewis (N/A) - Obviously he was not eligible to run in the 1000 Guineas, however after looking at his past two starts you cannot help but feel the conditions would have suited him. He has really emerged recently and should be an interesting contender in the Levin Classic.
Number 7 -President Lincoln (8) - Another Gelding who the connections might have wished was a Filly after looking at the track conditions in Christchurch on the weekend. Like Duckworth Lewis he will be very interesting at the Levin Classic in a couple of weeks if we have a wet November.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (HM) - The Wellington run is the real enigma, lesser company than the victory on the weekend in the Thousand Guineas, both runs were on Heavy tracks, I think I will chalk it up to targeting the Guineas and getting fitter from that Wellington run. The run on the weekend was an interesting performance as she rode three wide without cover, that actually seemed to work to her advantage as she found herself on better ground for the finish despite having to cover more distance than some of the others, you have to give the credit to Hayden Tinsley who described it has an 'underrated' place to be.
Number 5 - Anabandana (2) - Scratched from the Thousand Guineas on the weekend due to track conditions. Seemed well placed throughout the 2000 Guineas and just couldn't quite overcome a strong performance from Rock'n'Pop.
Number 4 - Rock'n'Pop (9) - Got the dream run in the 2k Guineas and won well with Anabandana chasing hard. He is nominated in the Levin Classic, it is hard to know how he rates against Antonio Lombardo as they both were able to overcome Anabandana by similar margins last start.
Number 3 - Dowager Queen (4) - Since winning her last start in New Zealand in September she has traveled to Australia and performed very well placing in four of her five starts at Group level. It is not clear what she will be looking at when she returns to New Zealand, however she will shape up well against other 3YO's.
Number 2 - Antonio Lombardo (1) - Lost top spot in the rankings only on the strength of the victory of the top ranked horse. Currently aiming at the Levin Classic (which is shaping up to be a special race), it is not clear if we will see this colt before November 25th.
Number 1 - Sangster (4) - Held on to win the Victorian Derby impressively, that warrants a jump up the rankings. Hard to know when we will next see this 3YO, however one would assume that the Auckland Derby is a distinct possibility.
Wednesday, 9 November 2011
Recovering from the Melbourne Cup hangover
The only bad thing about the Melbourne Cup, or the conclusion of Melbourne Cup week to be more specific, is that the Melbourne Cup and the lead up to the race is such a high point of the season that the next few weeks feel somewhat empty by comparison.
I know this is completely irrational, New Zealand Cup week follows directly on the heels of Melbourne Cup week and it really signals the beginning of the New Zealand summer of racing. I know by January I will be starting my Auckland Cup week countdown and the excitement will begin all over again.
I thought forward about all of the horse racing things I am looking forward to in the coming racing months.
Showcause - Was one of my favourites last year, great to watch him run. He was in pretty good form in Melbourne and I think a return to New Zealand will do him good. His connections would have loved to see him in the Melbourne Cup last week so he must be ready to run the 3200m.
Sir Slick - Is back! He is a 10YO now, I thought he was done, but he has just changed trainers. He starts off back at one of his favourite playgrounds in the Bay of Plenty. While is is possibly past his best he has been such an entertaining horse over the years that just to see him out on the track will bring back a lot of memories. I can definitely see him surprising with some strong runs, he was pretty good last year up until about his last three starts.
Auckland Derby Nominations - This begins next week. We know who a lot of these will be, but it is still exciting to start that count down and start thinking about who will be able to win over 2500m.
The Levin Classic - Rock'n'Pop was impressive with that strong finish once he found a gap on the weekend. Both he and Anabandana settled well and looked in good shape to put in a good finish, this time he came out on top. I was looking forward to this race as the Antonio Lombardo, Anabandana, Burgundy showdown. Now we wont see Burgundy for a while, but after a brave performance from Dollario, and Shanghai Bund's strong forth on the weekend, as well as a horse like Duckworth Lewis beating the older horses at Group Level recently, this race could be a great sight.
Our outstanding 4YO's - I have already discussed this here, but they should make excellent viewing as the season continues.
Waikato Times Gold Cup Day - It is an event I always look forward to, I get together with a large group of friends, load up chili-bins and enjoy a punt in the sun. Unfortunately I wont be able to attend this year (which is another story), I am not sure it has sunk in yet, and I am still hoping to get along for a couple of races early in the day.
Boxing Day - People I know mocked me last week, they were claiming I look forward to the Melbourne Cup more than Christmas or Birthdays. The truth is I look forward to a lot of things more than Christmas, the fact that Boxing day it infinitely more fun and exciting and it is just one day after is a great example. It is a day with a great atmosphere, and hopefully sunshine. It is a day where you can pick an option which suits, go as formal as you like, or just pay an entry fee and sit in the stands and take it all in. You can usually save money by finding a group ticket offer on the Ellerslie website.
Two Year Old Racing in the New Year - The Karaka Million is on the 29th of January. Not all 2YO's are eligible, but the build up for this really seems to start in November and continue. The New Year offers this and both of the Group 1's for the 2YO's.
Random Derby Lead Up days - Ellerslie seems to have meetings every two or three weeks between January and March. On any given race day you can head down there, entry is usually free, sit in the sun and see amazing horses in their derby or Cup week prep. You will be one of probably only a couple of hundred people on course watching this. A great way to spend a bit of a lazy Saturday if you are around Auckland.
Derby Day - Infield, outfield, stand or party. In the sun or rain like last year this day just goes off.
Auckland Cup Day - New Zealand does not have a lot of 3200m races. There is something special about a full field over this distance for a big stake and a Group 1.
Diamond Day - It is underrated, firstly Whips and Spurs is always great. Secondly there are two Group 1 races, there are not many days in New Zealand which can offer that.
As you can see the upcoming season is going to be a great one. This has been excellent therapy, like taking a couple of Nurofen for my Melbourne Cup hangover. I feel better already.
I know this is completely irrational, New Zealand Cup week follows directly on the heels of Melbourne Cup week and it really signals the beginning of the New Zealand summer of racing. I know by January I will be starting my Auckland Cup week countdown and the excitement will begin all over again.
I thought forward about all of the horse racing things I am looking forward to in the coming racing months.
Showcause - Was one of my favourites last year, great to watch him run. He was in pretty good form in Melbourne and I think a return to New Zealand will do him good. His connections would have loved to see him in the Melbourne Cup last week so he must be ready to run the 3200m.
Sir Slick - Is back! He is a 10YO now, I thought he was done, but he has just changed trainers. He starts off back at one of his favourite playgrounds in the Bay of Plenty. While is is possibly past his best he has been such an entertaining horse over the years that just to see him out on the track will bring back a lot of memories. I can definitely see him surprising with some strong runs, he was pretty good last year up until about his last three starts.
Auckland Derby Nominations - This begins next week. We know who a lot of these will be, but it is still exciting to start that count down and start thinking about who will be able to win over 2500m.
The Levin Classic - Rock'n'Pop was impressive with that strong finish once he found a gap on the weekend. Both he and Anabandana settled well and looked in good shape to put in a good finish, this time he came out on top. I was looking forward to this race as the Antonio Lombardo, Anabandana, Burgundy showdown. Now we wont see Burgundy for a while, but after a brave performance from Dollario, and Shanghai Bund's strong forth on the weekend, as well as a horse like Duckworth Lewis beating the older horses at Group Level recently, this race could be a great sight.
Our outstanding 4YO's - I have already discussed this here, but they should make excellent viewing as the season continues.
Waikato Times Gold Cup Day - It is an event I always look forward to, I get together with a large group of friends, load up chili-bins and enjoy a punt in the sun. Unfortunately I wont be able to attend this year (which is another story), I am not sure it has sunk in yet, and I am still hoping to get along for a couple of races early in the day.
Boxing Day - People I know mocked me last week, they were claiming I look forward to the Melbourne Cup more than Christmas or Birthdays. The truth is I look forward to a lot of things more than Christmas, the fact that Boxing day it infinitely more fun and exciting and it is just one day after is a great example. It is a day with a great atmosphere, and hopefully sunshine. It is a day where you can pick an option which suits, go as formal as you like, or just pay an entry fee and sit in the stands and take it all in. You can usually save money by finding a group ticket offer on the Ellerslie website.
Two Year Old Racing in the New Year - The Karaka Million is on the 29th of January. Not all 2YO's are eligible, but the build up for this really seems to start in November and continue. The New Year offers this and both of the Group 1's for the 2YO's.
Random Derby Lead Up days - Ellerslie seems to have meetings every two or three weeks between January and March. On any given race day you can head down there, entry is usually free, sit in the sun and see amazing horses in their derby or Cup week prep. You will be one of probably only a couple of hundred people on course watching this. A great way to spend a bit of a lazy Saturday if you are around Auckland.
Derby Day - Infield, outfield, stand or party. In the sun or rain like last year this day just goes off.
Auckland Cup Day - New Zealand does not have a lot of 3200m races. There is something special about a full field over this distance for a big stake and a Group 1.
Diamond Day - It is underrated, firstly Whips and Spurs is always great. Secondly there are two Group 1 races, there are not many days in New Zealand which can offer that.
As you can see the upcoming season is going to be a great one. This has been excellent therapy, like taking a couple of Nurofen for my Melbourne Cup hangover. I feel better already.
Monday, 31 October 2011
2011 Melbourne Cup Preview
They call it "the race that stops a nation". In reality it stops two, with New Zealand grinding to a halt slightly after five local time to watch this storied event. This year it feels like this race will stop many nations, with horses from France, England, Dubai, and Germany having legitimate shots to take away the Cup. In this preview I will count down from 24th to first who I think has the best chance to win the Melbourne Cup in 2011.
Sweepstake Reward Group
While you wouldn't be happy to see these names on your Sweep ticket you might get some reward if last place pays out.
24th - (19) Saptapadi - One win and $86k in winnings, this is a massive ask. Nowhere to be seen in the Caulfield Cup, eighth in the Herbert Power stakes which was not as strong as recent years. Watch this video, there is a lot of Melbourne Cup form on display.
23rd - (20) Shamrocker - Has just not been there this Spring. She placed in two Oaks races last year and won a Derby, that type of pedigree would normally indicate that two miles is a possibility, but recent performances have been lacking.
22th - (8) Fox Hunt - He did win the German St Leger I have no idea how that translates to this. I think this is a bit too much of a step up.
Known Quantities
Horses we know a bit about but would find it hard to recommend.
21st - (13) Hawk Island - There was a lot to like in the Metrop run where he was wide and came at them well. However we probably needed to see more in the Caulfield Cup to seriously consider him here.
20th - (24) Older Than Time - She seems to have had a similar build up to this race as her build up to the Sydney Cup performance in April, the difference is that she has not had the same level of success in her build up for this race. It is hard to see her winning, but she is a horse who will see out the distance and will only carry 51kgs, $101 seems a bit over the odds, but this is a big ask.
19st - (7) Unusual Suspect - His Caulfield cup run was actually good which is why it is hard to have him this far down. He just didn't show enough leading up to that run to make me believe he will win this.
18th - (21) The Verminator - The Metrop winner will carry 52kg again on Tuesday. Barrier four should suit and I imagine he could get a nice trip behind Jukebox Jury and other runners coming from wide to challenge for the lead. Although he is still only carrying 52kgs there are others here who will get a lot more weight relief from past starts. He should give an honest performance but might simply be running into better horses in this event.
Unknown Quantities
Hard to know what to expect from this group. These have not started in Australia.
17th - (16) Modun - Apparently was brought to win this race. Hard to see it this year. Consistent in eight starts. No indication of how he will suit the conditions, but he seems to go well fresh.
16th - (15) Lost in the Moment - Well drawn and has nice weight relief. He is a consistent runner who was in the mix in every race leading up to the Ebor. He has not had an Australian start so is another runner with a lot of unknowns. He is currently paying more with the bookmakers than his stablemate Modun despite more weight relief from that Ebor start.
Could go either way
These two horses should dictate how this race is run and can contend if they stay the distance.
15th - (23) Glass Harmonium - This will be his third start in ten days. His connections will be wondering what could have been in the Cox Plate after that strong run in the Mackinnon on Saturday. He just looked like a strong racehorse in that performance, he showed enough to indicate he could get the 3200m and he is another who seems to pull out his best at Flemington. He will need to go forward from the very wide barrier which is how he races anyway.
14th - (2) Jukebox Jury - If his Irish St Ledger run is anything to go by we will get a good show from this horse on Tuesday. He set a good pace and showed a lot of guts coming home. He will have no problems with 3200m. However it is still hard to pick a winner who has not yet started in Australia, until it happens I will stick to horses who know the conditions.
Middle of the pack
Some definite contenders in this group.They will be vying for a share of the money and could turn some heads.
13th (12) Red Cadeaux - He looked beaten in the Irish St Ledger with 400m to go, but he kept finding extra and ran home strongly. He has a number of starts over more distance, but that type of horse doesn't always go well in this race. He seems to suit all conditions so although he has not tested the Australian conditions in his build up he could surprise.
12th - (6) Manighar - Finished off 2400m well in the Caulfield Cup. He has gone a few consistent races recently without winning one. This is tougher than that Caulfield start but he has merit.
11th - (17)At First Sight - Maybe flying slightly under the radar in this field. He ran a strong close second to December Draw in September, was then entered into six races and trials before actually starting one, in that start he ran second in the Bendigo cup. He broke the maiden ranks in his second of his eleven starts and has not won another one since.
10th - (9) Lucas Cranach - While the fifth placing in the Caulfield Cup was not bad given where he spent most of the race, I did expect more from this highly rated horse. I think Lucas Cranach offers the biggest range of possible outcomes in this race, I think he could win, but I could also see him departing without firing a shot. I will predict a middle of the pack uninspiring performance. In early drafts of this I have had him as high as fifth and as low as fifteenth, I am just not sure what to expect. I know I am underrating this horse, but I keep comparing him to horses further up this list and I just can't move him up.
9th - (18) Moyenne Corniche - There was a lot to like from his run in the Ebor, that race contained a lot of form leading into this race. He took a bit of time to wind up, but showed a good top speed when he reached it, he finished off strongly enough over 2800m. The thing I like about that run was the size of the field and the way he finished in traffic, he will probably need that experience from barrier seventeen. He has had a decent run in Melbourne to acclimatise so will be ready for this. He will only carry 52kgs on Tuesday. He could win this. If he goes well then the likes of Modun, Lost in the Moment, Saptapadi and Fox hunt could also not be far behind. I initially had him further down the pack when drafting this list, but as I keep looking at this he keeps rising in my prediction, but race time tomorrow I might rate him in the top six or seven.
8th - (10) Mourayan - He was full of running at the end of the Mackinnon on Saturday, he has been carrying a lot more weight recently and racing with consistency. I am slightly worried about barrier fourteen as he might get caught in no mans land, he might need luck to find a nice place to sit in the pack.
The Bart Factor
7th -(11) Precedence - Cannot base this high rating on performances on the track. I am purely basing this prediction on this article. I know trainers are going to rate their horse a better chance than it really is in most cases, however you have got to respect Bart when it comes to these things. Tuesday could be a double win for Sir Patrick Hogan as he not only owns a share in Precedence but he owns Zabeel, who has already sired three Melbourne Cup winners and will be looking for a fourth.
Contenders
Have to be seriously considered winning chances
6th - (4) Drunken Sailor - I liked the Caulfield Cup run, he cut across the back of the pack from a wide barrier and was happy just to have a run along the rail. He showed a lot of patience and was unlucky as they bunched up not to get a run, things opened up at about the 300m mark and he ran on well. Barrier eight should see him more handy for a similar staying performance.
5th -(22) Tullamore - I am betting that the form coming out of the Moonee Valley Cup holds up on Tuesday. He also placed in the Caulfield Cup so he seems to be hitting form at a good time. His weight drops 5kgs from that solid chasing performance so you can expect him to be flying home in this.
4th - (14) Illo - He will carry 3.5kgs less than his last start in the Moonee Valley Cup. That was a good performance, he was caught wide and had to move forward, he seemed to hold on well to third and although Americain was getting away from him the weight reduction and a better trip from barrier one will be advantageous here. Bart Cummings has been training this German galloper, he brings strong form into this having won five races from fourteen starts and looks like he has been building up towards longer distances.
3rd - (23) Niwot - Seems to go very well at Flemington. The Lexus had a very strong field and has been a good indicator of Melbourne Cup success over the past few years. He is a stayer who wont be bothered by the 3200m having won over that distance at Flemington in the past, 51kgs makes him look like a great lightweight chance.
Favourites
Should be in every multiple placed on the day it does feel a bit like a coin flip.
2nd - (1) Americain - The deserved favourite. He won here twelve months ago, he has started six times since that race, winning twice. There is no question around his form, he ran a comfortable race in the Moonee Valley Cup to win last start. Prior to his first start in Australia this prep his form was mixed, but this race would have been the target, he was in much better form leading into this race a year ago. He is carrying the top weight of 58kgs, the 3.5kg increase from last year is a question which needs to be asked, but he carried it well in his last start, over the past twelve months he has carried as much as 61kgs. Very few horses have won this race back to back, it has only happened five times, Americian is well placed to make it six.
The Winner
(3) Dunaden - A French Quinella? These horses have met twice in the past twelve months, Dunaden carried 2kgs less than Americain when they finished 9th and 10th respectively in August, Dunaden actually carried 1.5kgs more in April when he finished first and Americain 6th. This time Americain will carry 3.5kgs more, with Dunaden carrying 54.5kgs (incidentally, this what Americain carried winning this race last year). He won the Geelong Cup with a run that made the other horses appear to be standing still on the bend. They say that was not the best Geelong Cup field, however Tanby went on to win the Bendigo Cup the following week, Bauer was improving and shortened significantly with the bookmakers for this race following that performance, and Showcause was pretty strong all spring.
Condensing my thoughts in this manner has been an excellent way to understand how I feel about a lot of the runners. Reading through this again I definitely feel like most of this field has their claims and a case can be made for most of the twenty four runners. This is always a special race, this feels like a particularly strong field. I am pretty confident one of the French horses will come out on top, but I get the impression that we will have a few surprises in the next few horses home.
Sweepstake Reward Group
While you wouldn't be happy to see these names on your Sweep ticket you might get some reward if last place pays out.
24th - (19) Saptapadi - One win and $86k in winnings, this is a massive ask. Nowhere to be seen in the Caulfield Cup, eighth in the Herbert Power stakes which was not as strong as recent years. Watch this video, there is a lot of Melbourne Cup form on display.
23rd - (20) Shamrocker - Has just not been there this Spring. She placed in two Oaks races last year and won a Derby, that type of pedigree would normally indicate that two miles is a possibility, but recent performances have been lacking.
22th - (8) Fox Hunt - He did win the German St Leger I have no idea how that translates to this. I think this is a bit too much of a step up.
Known Quantities
Horses we know a bit about but would find it hard to recommend.
21st - (13) Hawk Island - There was a lot to like in the Metrop run where he was wide and came at them well. However we probably needed to see more in the Caulfield Cup to seriously consider him here.
20th - (24) Older Than Time - She seems to have had a similar build up to this race as her build up to the Sydney Cup performance in April, the difference is that she has not had the same level of success in her build up for this race. It is hard to see her winning, but she is a horse who will see out the distance and will only carry 51kgs, $101 seems a bit over the odds, but this is a big ask.
19st - (7) Unusual Suspect - His Caulfield cup run was actually good which is why it is hard to have him this far down. He just didn't show enough leading up to that run to make me believe he will win this.
18th - (21) The Verminator - The Metrop winner will carry 52kg again on Tuesday. Barrier four should suit and I imagine he could get a nice trip behind Jukebox Jury and other runners coming from wide to challenge for the lead. Although he is still only carrying 52kgs there are others here who will get a lot more weight relief from past starts. He should give an honest performance but might simply be running into better horses in this event.
Unknown Quantities
Hard to know what to expect from this group. These have not started in Australia.
17th - (16) Modun - Apparently was brought to win this race. Hard to see it this year. Consistent in eight starts. No indication of how he will suit the conditions, but he seems to go well fresh.
16th - (15) Lost in the Moment - Well drawn and has nice weight relief. He is a consistent runner who was in the mix in every race leading up to the Ebor. He has not had an Australian start so is another runner with a lot of unknowns. He is currently paying more with the bookmakers than his stablemate Modun despite more weight relief from that Ebor start.
Could go either way
These two horses should dictate how this race is run and can contend if they stay the distance.
15th - (23) Glass Harmonium - This will be his third start in ten days. His connections will be wondering what could have been in the Cox Plate after that strong run in the Mackinnon on Saturday. He just looked like a strong racehorse in that performance, he showed enough to indicate he could get the 3200m and he is another who seems to pull out his best at Flemington. He will need to go forward from the very wide barrier which is how he races anyway.
14th - (2) Jukebox Jury - If his Irish St Ledger run is anything to go by we will get a good show from this horse on Tuesday. He set a good pace and showed a lot of guts coming home. He will have no problems with 3200m. However it is still hard to pick a winner who has not yet started in Australia, until it happens I will stick to horses who know the conditions.
Middle of the pack
Some definite contenders in this group.They will be vying for a share of the money and could turn some heads.
13th (12) Red Cadeaux - He looked beaten in the Irish St Ledger with 400m to go, but he kept finding extra and ran home strongly. He has a number of starts over more distance, but that type of horse doesn't always go well in this race. He seems to suit all conditions so although he has not tested the Australian conditions in his build up he could surprise.
12th - (6) Manighar - Finished off 2400m well in the Caulfield Cup. He has gone a few consistent races recently without winning one. This is tougher than that Caulfield start but he has merit.
11th - (17)At First Sight - Maybe flying slightly under the radar in this field. He ran a strong close second to December Draw in September, was then entered into six races and trials before actually starting one, in that start he ran second in the Bendigo cup. He broke the maiden ranks in his second of his eleven starts and has not won another one since.
10th - (9) Lucas Cranach - While the fifth placing in the Caulfield Cup was not bad given where he spent most of the race, I did expect more from this highly rated horse. I think Lucas Cranach offers the biggest range of possible outcomes in this race, I think he could win, but I could also see him departing without firing a shot. I will predict a middle of the pack uninspiring performance. In early drafts of this I have had him as high as fifth and as low as fifteenth, I am just not sure what to expect. I know I am underrating this horse, but I keep comparing him to horses further up this list and I just can't move him up.
9th - (18) Moyenne Corniche - There was a lot to like from his run in the Ebor, that race contained a lot of form leading into this race. He took a bit of time to wind up, but showed a good top speed when he reached it, he finished off strongly enough over 2800m. The thing I like about that run was the size of the field and the way he finished in traffic, he will probably need that experience from barrier seventeen. He has had a decent run in Melbourne to acclimatise so will be ready for this. He will only carry 52kgs on Tuesday. He could win this. If he goes well then the likes of Modun, Lost in the Moment, Saptapadi and Fox hunt could also not be far behind. I initially had him further down the pack when drafting this list, but as I keep looking at this he keeps rising in my prediction, but race time tomorrow I might rate him in the top six or seven.
8th - (10) Mourayan - He was full of running at the end of the Mackinnon on Saturday, he has been carrying a lot more weight recently and racing with consistency. I am slightly worried about barrier fourteen as he might get caught in no mans land, he might need luck to find a nice place to sit in the pack.
The Bart Factor
7th -(11) Precedence - Cannot base this high rating on performances on the track. I am purely basing this prediction on this article. I know trainers are going to rate their horse a better chance than it really is in most cases, however you have got to respect Bart when it comes to these things. Tuesday could be a double win for Sir Patrick Hogan as he not only owns a share in Precedence but he owns Zabeel, who has already sired three Melbourne Cup winners and will be looking for a fourth.
Contenders
Have to be seriously considered winning chances
6th - (4) Drunken Sailor - I liked the Caulfield Cup run, he cut across the back of the pack from a wide barrier and was happy just to have a run along the rail. He showed a lot of patience and was unlucky as they bunched up not to get a run, things opened up at about the 300m mark and he ran on well. Barrier eight should see him more handy for a similar staying performance.
5th -(22) Tullamore - I am betting that the form coming out of the Moonee Valley Cup holds up on Tuesday. He also placed in the Caulfield Cup so he seems to be hitting form at a good time. His weight drops 5kgs from that solid chasing performance so you can expect him to be flying home in this.
4th - (14) Illo - He will carry 3.5kgs less than his last start in the Moonee Valley Cup. That was a good performance, he was caught wide and had to move forward, he seemed to hold on well to third and although Americain was getting away from him the weight reduction and a better trip from barrier one will be advantageous here. Bart Cummings has been training this German galloper, he brings strong form into this having won five races from fourteen starts and looks like he has been building up towards longer distances.
3rd - (23) Niwot - Seems to go very well at Flemington. The Lexus had a very strong field and has been a good indicator of Melbourne Cup success over the past few years. He is a stayer who wont be bothered by the 3200m having won over that distance at Flemington in the past, 51kgs makes him look like a great lightweight chance.
Favourites
Should be in every multiple placed on the day it does feel a bit like a coin flip.
2nd - (1) Americain - The deserved favourite. He won here twelve months ago, he has started six times since that race, winning twice. There is no question around his form, he ran a comfortable race in the Moonee Valley Cup to win last start. Prior to his first start in Australia this prep his form was mixed, but this race would have been the target, he was in much better form leading into this race a year ago. He is carrying the top weight of 58kgs, the 3.5kg increase from last year is a question which needs to be asked, but he carried it well in his last start, over the past twelve months he has carried as much as 61kgs. Very few horses have won this race back to back, it has only happened five times, Americian is well placed to make it six.
The Winner
(3) Dunaden - A French Quinella? These horses have met twice in the past twelve months, Dunaden carried 2kgs less than Americain when they finished 9th and 10th respectively in August, Dunaden actually carried 1.5kgs more in April when he finished first and Americain 6th. This time Americain will carry 3.5kgs more, with Dunaden carrying 54.5kgs (incidentally, this what Americain carried winning this race last year). He won the Geelong Cup with a run that made the other horses appear to be standing still on the bend. They say that was not the best Geelong Cup field, however Tanby went on to win the Bendigo Cup the following week, Bauer was improving and shortened significantly with the bookmakers for this race following that performance, and Showcause was pretty strong all spring.
Condensing my thoughts in this manner has been an excellent way to understand how I feel about a lot of the runners. Reading through this again I definitely feel like most of this field has their claims and a case can be made for most of the twenty four runners. This is always a special race, this feels like a particularly strong field. I am pretty confident one of the French horses will come out on top, but I get the impression that we will have a few surprises in the next few horses home.
Friday, 28 October 2011
A look at the Derby Day Quaddie
With only four days to go until the Melbourne Cup people all over New Zealand are gearing up for the only horse race they watch all year. It is a particular shame this year because of the quality of horses coming out of New Zealand at the moment, local racing is well worth watching, there is also a number of quality horses which will be on show during Victoria Derby Day. I cannot remember a Melbourne Cup in recent times without a participant from New Zealand, and without a strong run from Booming or an outstanding performance from Showcause on Saturday at Derby Day there may not be one this year.
As much as the spectacle of the Melbourne Cup is exciting and amazing to see, Derby Day is the day of the Melbourne Cup carnival I tend to look forward to the most. Big races all day with quality fields, and this year there is a huge quaddie on offer. I believe because of the co-mingling of the pools this is also on offer to punters in New Zealand, but to be honest I have no idea how that works. As big as the pool for the quaddie this week it is also a very difficult one to select, so today I am hoping break down some of the chances in each race. I will then briefly look at some of the other big races on a great day of racing.
Quaddie Preview
Leg One - AAMI Victoria Derby
Hard to leave out
Manawanui - Can he stay? well I think he proved that with his performance in the AAMI Vase last weekend, it is hard to tell if he even got to top gear. He might be the closest thing to a Anchor we have, but with so many horses running anything can happen. Often at this stage in the career of a three year old it may not be the best stayer who wins this race but the best athlete, Manawanui certainly appears to have the talent.
Stangster - I watched his last start again to see what happened. He really had to make a move early, he had to travel three wide and at times he seemed wider around the bend, he got in the clear and unleashed his run. His run was early and he ran out of steam, but he still really had most of them beat. I am confident he will get the 2500m. His draw is comfortable and he should find himself somewhere in the middle of the pack. He is hard to leave out.
Induna - One of the few who has started at greater than 2000m more than once, he also has a start at 1900m, you have to believe the prep for this race has been good. The Geelong Classic run was impressive, he definitely looks up to this level.
Potential Quaddie Buster - for this purpose I will pick one who might be under the radar who could potentially spoil the quaddie (will only select horses paying over $20).
Cornell ($51) - Hard to see where he is going to make up the three plus lengths to Induna from the last time they met, however of the $20+ crowd he looks the most likely.
Value Bet
Sarbage ($15) - pretty good value on a runner who flew past Sangster last start.
Worth Considering
Collar
Perfect Punch
Niagara
Mr Chez
Leg Two - Myer Classic
Hard to leave out
More Joyous - If Manawanui wins the first leg and More Joyous the second there will be a lot of live units remaining. She had some sort of saddle problem prior to her last start, her price pushed out as people doubted this great mare, she became great value for a horse we know to be of top quality. During the running she was back and at times uncovered but once she hit top gear she really zoomed home, and while she didn't win by a lot she still crossed the finish line first. She has three wins from four over the mile so this distance will suit. Again, with a lot of chances in this race it is hard to recommend her as an anchor but depending on your Manawanui feelings she might be the next closest thing.
Lady Lynette - Has limited success on the track, but last two runs have been good. She goes well over the distance. I would have thought she was a better chance in this before disappointing two starts back. Before her win here she was fourth to Pinker Pinker and then third to Kings Rose and Pinker Pinker. Seems a bit over the odds at $21.
Mosheen - Form and at 49kgs there is a lot of get excited about. She is consistent and 1600m record has been proven. Looks like a great chance to upset the favourite.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Other than Lady Lynette.
Skyerush ($26)- Simply based on consistency it is hard not to consider her. She has proven herself over 1600m and it seems about right at this point in her prep.
Value Bet
Other than the two mentioned above there is good value around Guisepinna ($21) if she makes the field. Banchee for a place. Goon Serpent ($21) might be good value, but there is plenty of value in this race.
Worth Considering
It is possible to make a case for about three quarters of the field.
Leg Three - Salinger Stakes
This is where punters will have to go wide to take in a lot of runners.
Hard to leave out
Temple of Boom - Great record course and distance. Was very good last time. Only concern is the quality of the other runners and the draw.
Sister Madly - 1200m just suits this mare. Very good form at present, only losing to Sepoy and More Joyous in recent starts.
Curtana - Kept close enough to Sepoy last start to justify inclusion.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Only three paying greater than $20 in this close betting race. Hard to see any of them busting your quaddie here as there are eight runners paying between $4.50 and $13. However Black Piranah at $51 looks the best of the over $20 bunch, he has the class but maybe not quite the form over 1200m in recent times.
Value Bet
Temple of Boom is pretty good value, the market here looks pretty even maybe Curtana and Catapulted are slightly over too.
Worth Considering
Any of the mentioned runners in that group of Eight.
Neeson, Stirling Grove, and Catapulted look most likely to figure.
Leg Four - TAB.COM.AU Stakes
You will be doing very well if you are still alive for this one, but it is not any easier.
Hard to leave out
Doubtful Jack - Has first hand experience what it is like to see the rump of Black Caviar, but so does every other horse she has ever faced on a racetrack. Pretty good tune up run in a small field, consistent of late and loves Flemington.
Lunary - It is all falling into place to make it four from four at Flemington, loves 1400m and is brilliant second up. Barrier eight and 54kgs make this look like an outstanding chance.
Niblick - Another with strong C'n'D form. Also been good on the track recently, can do 53.5kg with ease, another to must include.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Largo Lad - Is another with form on the course and over the distance. He looks primed to put in a good show here, and $26 offers good value.
Value Bet
Toorak Toff ($15)- Was in good form before the run to nowhere in the Toorak. 1400m is better but will have to contend with barrier fifteen and 59kgs.
Worth Considering
Thankgodyou'rehere (draw concerns)
Amaethon
Happy Zero (Value)
Other Races to Enjoy
All of them of course. Dowager Queen looking for an Aussie victory in race three has a good chance to upset the favourite. Sepoy will put on a show in the forth.
Race two is the Lexus stakes. Always a good chance to get into the cup, and the winner here is worth considering, Shocking won the Cup after winning this a couple of years back.
The Mackinnon Stakes is looking like the race of the day. Will be interesting to see how Cox Plate runners rebound from last week and how horses like the Metrop winner The Verminator, Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed will go here. I have more things to consider.
As much as the spectacle of the Melbourne Cup is exciting and amazing to see, Derby Day is the day of the Melbourne Cup carnival I tend to look forward to the most. Big races all day with quality fields, and this year there is a huge quaddie on offer. I believe because of the co-mingling of the pools this is also on offer to punters in New Zealand, but to be honest I have no idea how that works. As big as the pool for the quaddie this week it is also a very difficult one to select, so today I am hoping break down some of the chances in each race. I will then briefly look at some of the other big races on a great day of racing.
Quaddie Preview
Leg One - AAMI Victoria Derby
Hard to leave out
Manawanui - Can he stay? well I think he proved that with his performance in the AAMI Vase last weekend, it is hard to tell if he even got to top gear. He might be the closest thing to a Anchor we have, but with so many horses running anything can happen. Often at this stage in the career of a three year old it may not be the best stayer who wins this race but the best athlete, Manawanui certainly appears to have the talent.
Stangster - I watched his last start again to see what happened. He really had to make a move early, he had to travel three wide and at times he seemed wider around the bend, he got in the clear and unleashed his run. His run was early and he ran out of steam, but he still really had most of them beat. I am confident he will get the 2500m. His draw is comfortable and he should find himself somewhere in the middle of the pack. He is hard to leave out.
Induna - One of the few who has started at greater than 2000m more than once, he also has a start at 1900m, you have to believe the prep for this race has been good. The Geelong Classic run was impressive, he definitely looks up to this level.
Potential Quaddie Buster - for this purpose I will pick one who might be under the radar who could potentially spoil the quaddie (will only select horses paying over $20).
Cornell ($51) - Hard to see where he is going to make up the three plus lengths to Induna from the last time they met, however of the $20+ crowd he looks the most likely.
Value Bet
Sarbage ($15) - pretty good value on a runner who flew past Sangster last start.
Worth Considering
Collar
Perfect Punch
Niagara
Mr Chez
Leg Two - Myer Classic
Hard to leave out
More Joyous - If Manawanui wins the first leg and More Joyous the second there will be a lot of live units remaining. She had some sort of saddle problem prior to her last start, her price pushed out as people doubted this great mare, she became great value for a horse we know to be of top quality. During the running she was back and at times uncovered but once she hit top gear she really zoomed home, and while she didn't win by a lot she still crossed the finish line first. She has three wins from four over the mile so this distance will suit. Again, with a lot of chances in this race it is hard to recommend her as an anchor but depending on your Manawanui feelings she might be the next closest thing.
Lady Lynette - Has limited success on the track, but last two runs have been good. She goes well over the distance. I would have thought she was a better chance in this before disappointing two starts back. Before her win here she was fourth to Pinker Pinker and then third to Kings Rose and Pinker Pinker. Seems a bit over the odds at $21.
Mosheen - Form and at 49kgs there is a lot of get excited about. She is consistent and 1600m record has been proven. Looks like a great chance to upset the favourite.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Other than Lady Lynette.
Skyerush ($26)- Simply based on consistency it is hard not to consider her. She has proven herself over 1600m and it seems about right at this point in her prep.
Value Bet
Other than the two mentioned above there is good value around Guisepinna ($21) if she makes the field. Banchee for a place. Goon Serpent ($21) might be good value, but there is plenty of value in this race.
Worth Considering
It is possible to make a case for about three quarters of the field.
Leg Three - Salinger Stakes
This is where punters will have to go wide to take in a lot of runners.
Hard to leave out
Temple of Boom - Great record course and distance. Was very good last time. Only concern is the quality of the other runners and the draw.
Sister Madly - 1200m just suits this mare. Very good form at present, only losing to Sepoy and More Joyous in recent starts.
Curtana - Kept close enough to Sepoy last start to justify inclusion.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Only three paying greater than $20 in this close betting race. Hard to see any of them busting your quaddie here as there are eight runners paying between $4.50 and $13. However Black Piranah at $51 looks the best of the over $20 bunch, he has the class but maybe not quite the form over 1200m in recent times.
Value Bet
Temple of Boom is pretty good value, the market here looks pretty even maybe Curtana and Catapulted are slightly over too.
Worth Considering
Any of the mentioned runners in that group of Eight.
Neeson, Stirling Grove, and Catapulted look most likely to figure.
Leg Four - TAB.COM.AU Stakes
You will be doing very well if you are still alive for this one, but it is not any easier.
Hard to leave out
Doubtful Jack - Has first hand experience what it is like to see the rump of Black Caviar, but so does every other horse she has ever faced on a racetrack. Pretty good tune up run in a small field, consistent of late and loves Flemington.
Lunary - It is all falling into place to make it four from four at Flemington, loves 1400m and is brilliant second up. Barrier eight and 54kgs make this look like an outstanding chance.
Niblick - Another with strong C'n'D form. Also been good on the track recently, can do 53.5kg with ease, another to must include.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Largo Lad - Is another with form on the course and over the distance. He looks primed to put in a good show here, and $26 offers good value.
Value Bet
Toorak Toff ($15)- Was in good form before the run to nowhere in the Toorak. 1400m is better but will have to contend with barrier fifteen and 59kgs.
Worth Considering
Thankgodyou'rehere (draw concerns)
Amaethon
Happy Zero (Value)
Other Races to Enjoy
All of them of course. Dowager Queen looking for an Aussie victory in race three has a good chance to upset the favourite. Sepoy will put on a show in the forth.
Race two is the Lexus stakes. Always a good chance to get into the cup, and the winner here is worth considering, Shocking won the Cup after winning this a couple of years back.
- Tullamore and Green Moon are genuine Melbourne Cup contenders. Tullamore should be in the 24, Green Moon is at 32nd on the order of entry, he really needs this.
- Showcause had a good performance in the Geelong Cup, he is not as out of this as $15 suggests, he probably needs to win as he is currently at 37th in line for the Cup.
- Niwot is short with the bookmakers and performed well course and distance in the Bart Cummings, a winner recently at Flemington over 3200m is 34th in the order and likely needs a win here to get a Cup shot.
- I thought Aundjawun looked pretty good at Moonee Valley last start, at 40th for the cup he will need this win, $15 odds looks about right and possibly good value.
- Older Than Time is in the Cup if they want it, seems to be improving and another one who could go well here.
- Booming can start the Cup if he wants it, sounds like he will need to have a good showing here to be given the start on Tuesday, still looks like an outside winning chance
The Mackinnon Stakes is looking like the race of the day. Will be interesting to see how Cox Plate runners rebound from last week and how horses like the Metrop winner The Verminator, Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed will go here. I have more things to consider.
- I picked Glass Harmonium to win the Cox Plate. He lost that race in the first five meters of the 2040m trip. Do you give him another chance? I tend to agree with Mike Moroney, I think it will be unlikely that there will be so much disruption before this race and that he (the horse) is worth another shot.
- Wall Street has been kept a lot safer this week after a flying fourth in the Cox Plate. Will likely jump better this week and be in a better position to make a run at them.
- Efficient, looked great last week, he got squeezed out when making a run at the end and still came 6th.
- It feels like a good opportunity for Ginga Dude, $31 is pretty good value. Won on the course and distance about a year ago, will probably challenge Glass Harmonium for the lead.
- Despite the Verminator's good form and love of 2000m, hard to see the 59kgs suit. One can assume he will start on Tuesday in the Cup, so if you want a run on Saturday why not hit the Lexus?
- Rekindled interest was excellent last week. Should get a great trip from barrier five with Ginga Dude moving forward. Unlucky at the finish last week and still charged home for third.
- Southern Speed, unfortunately I think the weight will be a bit too much. However she has been excellent all spring and is never too far away.
- Lights of Heaven, has to be considered after her last start effort in strong field.
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