Cox Plate Preview

A couple of comments on the Caulfield Cup first, if you just want the preview skip down to the bold heading, Cox Plate Preview, scroll a bit further for my attempt to make a case for and against each runner, predictions are at the bottom. 
 
I didn't complete my Caulfield Cup preview last week, I started it, tried to take an angle which didn't completely work, made a prediction, re-read it and decided to tweet my prediction rather than post a nonsensical argument. My tweet read "If anyone upsets December Draw today, the two I keep looking at are Hawk Island and Southern Speed". So as it turns out Hawk Island was not really in contention, however I did mention in the unposted preview how I liked Southern Speed's draw, thought it might lead or be handy as she was in the Underwood, and he had proved she could come home well in the Turnbull.

In the preview I talked about a few historic factors, basically saying

"I went looking for some Caulfield Cup stats, I know history doesn't necessarily influence what will happen on the weekend, but it is always interesting to have a look and see how statistics line up. I assumed the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup Double was more common, I certainly think that if December Draw wins on the weekend the $12 you can get today in the Melbourne Cup will be a bargain, however it is not as common as I thought. It has been completed eleven times.  I guess my impression came from the four horses who achieved this between 1991 and 2001, Lets Elope (1991), Doriemus (1994), Might and Power (1994), Ethereal (2001), but it has not happened since (are we due?). Of course other horses have won in different years such as Viewed. Also if you look back at the last twelve cups, eight of the winners have been aged four, there are only five 4YO's remaining in the twenty-two remaining horses.

Here are the last five Caulfield Cup Winners and their closing price at the New Zealand TAB. Not a lot of favourites. Their finishing position in the Melbourne Cup of the same year is in brackets. 
2010 Descarado $17.40 (23rd)
2009 Viewed $12.40  (7th) 2008 (1st)
2008 All the Good $47.70 (N/A)
2007 Master O'Reily $5.20   (8th) 2008 (4th) 2009 (4th) 2010 (15th)
2006 Tawqeet $20.65  (19th) 2007 (16th)

Interestingly enough their Melbourne Cup finish actually improved the year after their Caulfield Cup victory, it would be hard for Descarado not to improve, considering finishing would be an improvement, but the $21 on offer at the moment for a horse who looks to be back in form is certainly not bad. In regard to odds, there are currently seven horses in the $12 - $25 range which looks like a sweet spot in recent years, two of those seven are 4YO's, Absolutely and Southern Speed, Absolutely will do it tough from the outside barrier, but Southern Speed looks well placed in this."

Southern Speed finished up paying better than that $12 - $25 range, but at the time she was right in the sweet spot. She ran a near perfect race from the barrier and just had too much in the end. December Draw was not a factor, and as it turns out suffered an injury. I noticed as they rounded the turn he was not in a great position, Michael Rodd used his whip once and then appeared to look down, then basically pull him up. Just wondering if he heard something, I am sure he would have felt that there was something wrong. I am not a vet, but I am sure pushing a horse on an injured leg could have been very dangerous for the health of the horse, so it was excellent awareness and precaution taken by Michael Rodd at that point in a big race.

Cox Plate Preview

On paper the Cox Plate looks significantly more competitive than the Caulfield Cup looked (on paper at least), when the first two favorites finish last and second last a race becomes a lot more competitive. However is there something to be learned from looking back at Cox Plate history.

Since the year 2000 there have been two 3YO winners, one 4YO winner, two 5YO winners,  four winners at age six, one at seven, and one at nine. The lone winner as a 4YO was last year with So You Think, who also won at age three. One of the included 5YO winners was Sunline collecting her second consecutive Cox Plate, the next winner at age five was Northerly who went on to win at age six. Looking back further the race appears to have been won most commonly by 4YO's.


Favourites have had a pretty good record in the Cox Plate they win 41% of the time. Since the year 2000, Sunline, Northerly, Makybe Diva and So You Think have won as favourite.


Makybe Diva was the last mare to win the race, the last one prior to that was Sunline. This has not typically been a race which is won by mares.

Six horses have won the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup in the same year.

This year there are four mares in this field (both the emergencies are mares). There is one 8YO, one 7YO, one 6YO, one 5YO,  nine 4YO's, and one 3YO (the emergencies are six and four years old). Are we due for a mare to win this race? only two 4YO's in the last eleven years, are we due for another 4YO victory? there are four 4YO mares in this race.

Lets have a look at what the winners have paid over the past eleven races.  

The most recent winners have paid (as per NZ TAB)
2010 So You Think - $1.60 (Favourite)
2009 So You Think - $9.50
2008 Maldivian - $10.10
2007 El Segundo -$5.90
2006 Fields of Omagh - $28.25
2005 Makybe Diva - $2.50 (Favourite)
2004 Savabeel - $12.05
2003 Fields of Omagh $15.20
2002 Northerly $4.10 (Favourite)
2001 Northerly $3.70
2000 Sunlline $2.05 (Favourite)

So while favourites have not always won the Cox Plate, it is rare that a real blow-out winner has come through for victory. I think the difference is the Weight for Age conditions, all the horses are well known and proven performers. So You Think in 2009 was a bit of an unknown, we all know how good he is now, this year the lone 3YO is Helmet, it feels like we have a greater understanding of Helmet than we did of So You Think two years ago. Either way favourites have been 4-11 for the last 11 races. The lead up favourite has been the 4YO Jimmy Choux. The favourite has not won in back to back years since 1990 (which topped off a five year run of favourites winning starting with Bonecrusher in 1986). Funnily enough 5/12 is 41.67% which is close to the overall record of favouries in this race, so it is a good sign if Jimmy Choux remains favourite.

Track position is clearly important at Moonee Valley, there is only a couple of hundred meters until the bend, and typically it is good to be handy with the short finishing straight. I was wondering where winners have typically drawn in this race, the last ten (after significant searching I was not able to find Sunline's winning draw in 2000, I did however find this video, amazing!) winning barriers are 2010 - 5, 2009 -7, 2008 - 6, 2007 - 7, 2006 - 7, 2005 - 4, 2004 - 6, 2003 - 6, 2002 - 5, 2001 -3.  Barrier seven (Wall Street) and six (Sincero) have proved the lucky barriers over the past ten years, however I suspect some of these winning horses would have been too good regardless of the barrier.

Runner by Runner Cases

In such a quality field you can often make a case for multiple starters, here is the case for why each horse could win, and why each horse might lose this years Cox Plate.


Efficient (5) 59kg
The case for:
Winner of three Group 1 races including a Victoria Derby and a Melbourne Cup.
Won seven races in total, other than 3YO campaign when he won five in a row he has not been in particularly good form leading into victories, 10th, 4th, 11th, 9th before winning the 2007 Melbourne Cup, and 5th and 9th before winning the 2009 Turnbull. This is his third start after a lay-off of around two years.
The owner rates his chances.

The case against:
He has not looked in the greatest form from his two starts back. He will carry even more weight than his 8th in a twelve horse Turnbull field. However the losing margin was only five lengths, it was an improvement on his first run back in the Underwood.

Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes

Descardo (9) 59kg

The case for:
He won the Caulfield Stakes last start, leading all the way and taking off around the bend and holding on for Victory.
Looks to be improving and returning to his 2010 form.
Strong second up record.
He will probably have to go forward from barrier nine (was barrier eight and went forward in the Cualfield Stakes) so he could be well placed coming into the final straight.

The case against:
He is carrying an injury, he will be vetted on Friday before the race.
He might not have held on another 40m last week.
A lot of horses will be moving forward to try to be handy, could be tough to get to where he wants to be, and there is a possibility for contact in the early stages he probably wont get the easy start he got last start.

Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes

Wall Street (7) 59kg
The case for:
Winner of four Group 1's including one in Melbourne last year.
Won his second start in Melbourne last year after running in the Cox Plate.
Not far off Jimmy Choux two starts back, not far off Kings Rose in a better run in the Toorak.
Winner over 2040m in the past, it looks like he is ready to step up to that distance.
Lucky barrier seven.

The case against:
This is the toughest field he has faced this preparation.
Still more of a 1600m horse rather than 2000m.
With all the speed coming from inside and outside him he may have to try to win this from a bit far back. His best chance will be to settle on the rail and hopefully get an easy run and be in a space to attack. He might try to go forward, but could find himself two or three wide and a bit far back.

Could I realistically see him winning this?
No

Glass Harmonium (4) 59kg
The case for:
Well drawn, can go forward or potentially trail a horse pushing forward from a wide barrier.
Top recent form, close up all three starts, very close second last start to December Draw over 2000m. Looked excellent that start, flying home and comfortably beating the rest of a strong field.
Beat Playing God, Southern Speed (not in this, but won the Caulfield Cup last weekend), Shamrocker and Efficient last start. Beat Playing God, Efficient, Shamrocker (lost to Lion Tamer, Southern Speed) under WFA two starts back.
Most comfortable over 2000m, very rarely completely fails, always seems to go a strong race and put himself in contention. 

The case against:
Most suited to handicap conditions.
Not yet a Group 1 winner.
This is the strongest field he has faced this prep, others are more suited to the weight they will have to carry in this race.

Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes

Jimmy Choux (10) 57.5kg
The case for:
Winner at 2040m last start at Group 1 level. Won without Jonathan Riddell even having to use the whip. He was back in a bad position on the corner and manage to find a hole through the field for victory. 
He will likely have speed either side of him, best case might be to follow them forward and settle two wide in 3rd or forth.
Winner of two Group 1's as a 4YO, winner of three Group 1's at age 3 including one in Australia over 2000m.
Favourites have a good record in the Cox Plate.
4YO's have a good overall record in the Cox Plate (not recently). 

The case against:
The wide barrier draw will be difficult to overcome. He will want to be handy towards the last bend and that may require racing wide for a significant portion of the race.  If he goes back from the wide draw I don't think he can win this race.
This is much harder than anything he has faced, the winning Group 1 race in Australia was against 3YO's this is a much tougher and more proven field.
I really like Jimmy Choux, I want him to win, it has impaired my judgement and I might be overrating him.

Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes

Sincero (6) 57.5kg
The case for:
Eleven wins from seventeen starts.
Winner of two Group 1 races.
Well drawn, should get a comfortable ride behind the speed.
Now familiar going left-handed. Will benefit from having a start over 2000m for the first time.

The case against:
Has not really lived up to the hype in Melbourne.
Most of the eleven victories have come against lower level company. One of the Group 1 victories was a handicap carrying less than 51kgs.
2000m might be a bit too far.
A lot of wide speed might see him back or trapped on the fence.

Could I realistically see him winning this?
No

Lion Tamer (16) 57.5kg
The case for:
Dual Melbourne Group 1 winner, including one at open WFA in the Underwood Stakes.
Looked to have more left at the end of the Underwood.
Was unlucky when he failed to fire in the Caulfield Stakes. He has mixed form in the past and can bounce back from less successful performances.
2nd in the AAMI Vase a year ago on this track over this distance.


The case against:
Maybe more focused on the Melbourne Cup and looking to peak a week from now.
Caulfield Stakes favourite he didn't seem to get itself in a good position to attack.
Has got back in both starts in Melbourne to date this spring, he managed to get off the rail and finish strongly in the Underwood, but got trapped and didn't have a lot of running in the Caulfield Stakes. Word is he will try to go forward from the outside barrier but there is a lot of speed inside him, so he might get caught wide or not get far enough forward.

Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes

Playing God (15) 57.5kg
The case for: 
Has been in form, came home very well from a bad position in the Underwood, looked like he had more running in the Turnbull putting up a good third to both December Draw and Glass Harmonium, will meet Glass Harmonium at better weights this week.
Proved he can get out of trouble and finish strongly in the Underwood.

The case against:
Both wins at Group 1 level have not been against this quality of field.
Despite strong performances this spring he has not managed to win a race against this very strong company.
Barrier fifteen make his life very difficult, will almost certainly be back and wide.

Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes, but not likely from that draw


Rekindled Interest (3) 57.5kg
The case for:
Will get a sweet trip from barrier three. Could see him following Glass Harmonium and siting on the rail two or three back.
Might be the first ever Twitter favourite, my Twitter feed was buzzing after his performance at Breakfast with the Best against Jimmy Choux.
He had a good win in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes over a month ago, that race included pretty good form with a good Alcopop performance and Whobegotyou, who was favourite for the Cox Plate at the time.
Winner of last years AAMI Vase on the course and over the distance. 
Three starts at Moonee Valley for two wins and a forth.

The case against:
Was fifth in the Turnbull last start, although he came home OK he was still two lengths behind Playing God, he carried 55.5kgs that day, that is the same as Glass Harmonium (who will carry 1.5kg more in this) and 1kg less than Playing God. Possibly would have wanted a better performance there if we are to expect a better performance here.

Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes

Shamrocker (1) 55.5kg
The case for:
Has had excuses over the past two starts.
Won and placed in multiple Group 1's as a 3YO, including beating Jimmy Choux. 
Should get a good trip from barrier one and at least be in a position to launch towards the finish.


The case against:
Bad luck can sometimes provide an excuse when it is just bad form.She was miles away in the Underwood, and not really close in the Turnbull. She has faced a lot of the contenders in this race already this season without much chance to show she is better. She has the class, but has not shown it this year.
Barrier one may leave her too far back to really compete at the end with all the early speed, she will need to jump well. 

Could I realistically see her winning this?
No



Pinker Pinker (12) 55.5kg.
The case for:
Ran a couple of strong races for second following on from her last win at Group 2 level. She has always been consistent as a 3YO, she has won $665k (AUD), but that could very easily be more with some luck with strong performances at Group level. She has built up over distance this year similar to when she was able to produce a strong staying performance in the AJC Oaks.

The case against:
Managed to go four races this spring without really encountering any of the main contenders for any of the major spring races, she beat Avienus and Southen Speed in August and again in the Stocks, beat Sincero in the Epsom. Winning the Lets Elope was not against the strongest field. She ran second to Kings Rose by a close margin, that was possibly the best guide to how she might go here. Barrier twelve is definitely not ideal given how this race may go and she possibly does not have the firepower against this field. If you like Sincero in this then you probably like Pinker Pinker too.

Could I realistically see her winning this?
No


Secret Admirer (8) 55.5kg
The case for:
Won the Epsom and has been close up in three other races this preparation. She has been super consistent from her eight starts with three wins, and four other placings, the other race was a fourth in a Group 2 race.  Really flew home over 1600m to win the Epsom, was still way back with 400m to go, so should be able to deal with 2000m.

The case against:
Won the Epsom carrying only 52kgs, WFA conditions are not ideal.
Seems to like to get back in races, or at least stay a bit off the speed, that may make this a challenge.
2000m is a new experience, hard to know how she will go for sure.

Could I realistically see her winning this?
No

Kings Rose (2) 55.5kg
The case for:
Well drawn for a good trip, should not have to run any more than the listed distance, has the ability to be on the pace and has a great turn of foot to attack the finish.
Won twice impressively at Group 2 level under WFA conditions in Melbourne. A good second in the Toorak where she really had to get out of the pack and came home very strongly. 
Twice a winner at Group 2 level in New Zealand over the 2000m, so the step up in distance should not be the issue.

The case against:
The wins have been by small margins, they have not been at Group 1 level, this is definitely tougher. One of the wins was not completely open as it was against other mares.

Could I realistically see her winning this?
Yes


Helmet (11) 49.5kg
The case for:
3YO's are so tempting at 49.5kgs under these WFA conditions. 3YO's this good are even more tempting. Helmet put in one of those rare memorable performances in the Caulfield Guineas which we may look back at fondly in the future. He sprinted to the lead and left them, set a pace and basically said that if anyone was going to beat him they would have to give their all and do it right from the start. He was challenged towards the finish by the only other horse who took up his challenge Manawanui, he fought hard to victory.
I could see the same tactics applying here, if he runs that hard out of the gates this will set up a furious pace in this race. He has speed inside him with Descarado likely to try and get forward, and speed outside with Lion Tamer, but he should be able to get across and hit that first bend first if he gets out like he did last start.
Six wins from nine starts with three thirds is pretty consistent. 

The case against:
Maybe he doesn't comfortably make the lead, there are possibly a few horses are vying for it, maybe everyone from eight out knows they need to get forward and stay handy, maybe he gets caught three wide around the first bend and increases the distance he has to travel.
2000m is a concern, he has not traveled that far in a race yet, maybe the pace he sets is too hard to keep, he certainly seemed to wear down towards the end of that 1600m Caulfield Guineas.
We may get to find out who this horse really is this weekend.

Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes

I am going to assume neither of the emergencies will start, if they do I still don't really see either of them winning.

Predictions

Top five winning chances
Kings Rose ($16)
Glass Harmonium ($14)
Jimmy Choux ($3)
Rekindled Interest ($10) - maybe I brought into the trackwork hype too much
Efficient ($18)

Top 3 who will make me feel stupid if they win
Helmet ($3.8)- after everything I just wrote
Pinker Pinker ($31)
Sincero ($21)

Top 3 who could make it into my top 5 by start time (check my Twitter on the day)
Helmet ($3.8) - that 49.5kg is so tempting
Descardo ($18) - If he gets the vet's complete OK on Friday
Lion Tamer ($13) - the barrier is just scaring me

Top 3 Value bets
Efficient ($18) - might even get more on the day
Kings Rose ($16)
Glass Harmonium ($14)

Extreme Value bet (Longest shot I could see winning)

Playing God ($41) - might be good place value

Battle for last
Either of the emergencies
Secret Admirer
Wall Street
Shamrocker