Three Year Old Power Rankings

It is about time I revised my New Zealand 3YO Power rankings, there are two reasons for the revision, firstly the first edition had a massive oversight and didn't include Sangster, secondly a lot changes quickly  amongst the 3YO's, some have lost, some have won, and there were three big 3YO races in New Zealand on the weekend which definitely effected this stuff. I will aim to revise these at least monthly as the season progresses and add in 2YO rankings once there is a bit more form around these.

I guess what is required is a definition of 'Power' for the purpose of the power rankings, another thing I didn't do properly when I first attempted this. There is no formula, it is not the highest rated, nor are they a genuine indication of which 3YO would beat each other 3YO (all things been equal). I am applying an incredibly loose and very subjective definition of Power for these rankings will be an indication of my impression of a number of factors including

• Overall Record
• Recent Form
• Dominance of victories
• Form in 'big' races
• Form against other top 3YO (and older) talent
• Buzz (Media and Bookie)

Anabandana effectively ticked a lot of these boxes in for the first rankings, she was clearly the dominant 2YO, won big races, had sufficient hype, and had really beaten most of the relevant 3YO's.
Burgundy had won his only start at that time (and has subsequently won a second and third), he was clearly a colt with a lot of hype (a lot to do with his million dollar plus price tag), and that he was moving up in favouritism for the Guineas.

Power Rankings
Dropped from rankings: Testa Secret (5), Kasumi (6), Estrato (7), Whoshe (9), Savabil (10)
Honourable Mention: Bulwer Bay (hard to leave out), Planet Rock (maybe can blame the track on the weekend), Kasumi (need to see the next start), Ginner Hart (has not raced since mentioned last start), Prestigious Miss (same).

The Top 10
Number 10 - Artistic (8) - Came from the back again on Monday. She would have been hoping for third in that tough race, but it was another impressive performance, a similar pattern has emerged from her last two starts and we know she will be flying home in the Guineas.

Number 9 -  Rock and Pop (N/A) Hard to rank, would be a bit easier had he beaten Planet Rock a couple of weekends ago, particularly after Planet Rock's run on Saturday at Wellington. Definitely cannot be ahead of Shuka on any list.

Number 8 - President Lincoln (N/A) - He has now won two from three, and put up an impressive performance in the Group 2 Wellington Guineas on the weekend. It was a reasonably strong field and you have to give him credit, but it looked like he just handled the conditions better than most. Will be interesting if he can show that finish on a better track, but definitely one to watch in the wet.

Number 7 - Shuka (N/A) - Two impressive runs. He was very unlikely to beat Burgundy, but he did beat Bulwer Bay who has emerged over his past two starts. In recent weeks he has beaten Rock and Pop. He was a Group 2 winner last year who also ran for Fifth in both 2YO Group 1's.

Number 6 - Holy Moly (N/A) - Impressive again on Monday for third, she did seem to be slowly making up ground on two horses we know are very strong, it makes two impressive runs in a row. Although it may be hard to beat Anabandana in the Thousand Guineas she is indicating that she might be the best of the rest.

Number 5 - Sangster (N/A) - Been watching him more closely since he was tipped to me as a derby winner a few weeks ago. The Derby is an extra 500m from what he has been running, and he ran out of steam last start. Looking back at that race again  it still looks to me like the opportunity was there and it had to be taken by James McDonald. Sangster did really kick clear of the field opening a gap between the 300m and 200m marks, he fought hard and was only taken in the last 10m or so, Niagara who ran 3rd was really the only other horse who appeared to be making up ground at the end. If he gets a good draw and finds a nice position the 2500m shouldn't be an issue. The problem will be Manawanui who once again looked great on Saturday. 

Number 4 - Dowager Queen (3) - She drops mainly because of the dominance of Burgundy. I like her chances to win a Group 2 in Melbourne this weekend after her last two starts against strong company. I was particularly impressed by the weaving run through traffic for second at Caulfield last start.

Number 3 - Burgundy (4) - Faced his biggest test to date and did so without worries. I cannot remember seeing a horse bound from the gates as quickly as he did on Sunday. Watching that race (on replay because like most people in New Zealand I spent Sunday afternoon "preparing" for the Rugby World Cup Final) I half expected him to take off about 600m out, he just looked like he was trying to go for it. Matthew Cameron resisted the temptation, and when he did unwind he did so with ease, but also appeared to have more to offer if it was required. Is he the best 3YO at the moment? possibly, but it may not be until the Levin Classic that we get to find out for sure.

Number 2 - Anabandana (1) - Hard to drop too her too far. She came well for Antonio Lombardo, but just couldn't catch him. Surprisingly, she looked to make up some ground towards the 400m, but once Antonio Lombardo shot clear it was probably as close as she got to him.

Number 1 - Antonio Lombardo (2) - Beat number one, had to take over the top spot. Great performance on the weekend, once again Sam Spratt controlled the race, he just seemed to have too much for them. I didn't see him wear down as the race went on, he is definitely looking good for the step up to the mile in the Levin Classic.

In making this list I think I have only confused myself further. As we hit the 3YO Group 1's in a couple of weeks this will become easier to make but right now there are five 3YO's I believe are clearly better than the rest. I just hope I have not lost track of any this time.