Lets get the favourites out of the way first. I have been looking very hard at both (2) Americain ($7.50) and (1) Dunaden ($6.50) since the Caulfield Cup. I am not going to break much ground with this analysis but Dunaden was amazing in the Caulfield, he won here last year and probably has improved since then, he would have taken improvement from the Caulfield run and has to be in this. Americain was probably the next best Caulfield Cup run, he will meet Dunaden a kg better off at Flemington, he knows how to win this race and the extra half mile will suit. They are hard to split for me, while I can conceive a situation in which neither of these runners win, I find it hard to see a situation in which one or both of these runners doesn't place, and certainly cant see either finishing outside of the first handful across the line.
How would you bet this? there is just too much uncertainty in this race to grab $6 - $7.50ish, however if you like either then the roving banker option might be the way to go, take your preferred option and box with 5 or 6 others and hope something wide pushes up the trifecta pay out.
Who else do I like?
The next two favourites are (4) Red Cadeaux ($9) and (8) Mount Athos ($7). It is hard to fault either one. Red Cadeaux will meet Dunaden better off for weight this year; he only just lost last year. I am not sure he is better than Dunaden, but the 3.5kg difference is tempting. He will go a good race and not be far off them at the end. I am a bit concerned about the lack of obvious speed in the race, I think he might settle back from barrier 18, but that may put him in a position to keep an eye on Dunaden.
Mount Athos, is fresh today, that is a state in which he typically goes well. He is carrying 54kg today, two starts back he carried almost 10kg more than that to win. He is well drawn and will stay well. My only concern would be about the step up to this level, this is much tougher than anything he has faced in the past.
It is hard not to include either of these in multiples, I actually like Red Cadeaux more, but I don't personally like either of these as much as the first two or some of the ones I will mention, but I can see their merits and the reason they are here to race.
Now to be more interesting
There were four others I really liked on recent performances, but I have ruled out (23) Zabeelionaire ($51) based on the draw, he will just have too much work to do, he has been steadily improving, looks like he will get the 3200m, and is only carrying 52kg's, but will possibly arrive too late to feature.
(17) My Quest for Peace ($18) - I liked him a lot heading into the Caulfield Cup, his performance there was pretty good. He is beautifully drawn, he should get a nice trailing run behind (13) Glencadam Gold ($41) and (6) Voila Ici ($101) (but because of the size of the field we might see some unusual faces pushing forward to find a position); I think it will pay to be handy in this race. He ran on well at Caulfield and he will be able to get the 3200m, he has won up to 2800m when he was carrying 62.5kg and is well placed here to go a good race.
(16) Mourayan ($21) - He first looked like a contender here 3 starts back in the Makybe Diva (she was a pretty good Melbourne Cup runner), his flying 4th was great. He then went to Sydney and ran on pretty well in the Hill Stakes and then won the Craven Plate. He will step up in distance today after a month off, he is up to 3200m for the first time, last year he won up to 2500m so he should get the trip. He has improved over this preparation and has won 4th up in the past. The 53.5kgs is also another tempting factor in play here.
(10) Ethiopia ($21) - He just seems to be getting better at the right time. The Cox Plate run was very good, and he came home very well in the Turnbull. He has only one once, but that was in the Australian Derby, that run was fourth up after a somewhat similar prep (except this prep as been tougher). Again he is well weighted and can add to her lone win today.
How hard is this race?
I am going to throw some more names at you, these are others which are very tempting to take, they possibly have their flaws, but certainly have to be considered.
(7) Cavalyman ($26) - Dropping in overnight in the odds. His last three races have all been between 3200 and 3300m. The step up in class is going to test, but he will only carry 54kg after carrying 60kg last start. He has been freshened since that, but has a history of coming back from spells over long distances and running well. I like him the most of these flawed contenders.
(24) Kelinni ($21) - The Lexus winner is always a consideration. He has had a solid preparation with a second at Group 1 level two starts back. He ran strongly for victory on the weekend and will drop to 51kg.
(20) Lights of Heaven ($16) - Possibly a little but forgotten, she ran a good Caulfield Cup. Will she stay 3200m? I like others more and $16 is possibly a little short, but could go well.
(14) Green Moon ($17) - It is possibly hard to take the Turnbull winner at 53.5kg, the Cox Plate favourite was not amazing in that race. He has won 5th up and has had a good preparation to date, it is just a case of liking others more.
(13) Glencadam Gold ($41) - Failed in the Caulfield Cup after a very strong lead up campaign.What went wrong? did he work to hard to lead? was the race too tough? He does seem to go better at the start of his preparations and drop off, maybe we have just reached that point. I can't have him, but he is not the worst.
(12) Galileo's Choice ($13) - Am I really going to pick a hurdler to win a Melbourne Cup? We know he will get the distance, we know he will easily carry the weight, he does go well after a spell and will come into play with rain. I don't know much, but will a hurdler have the turn of foot to sprint with them when it is time to go?
That is about half the field covered? Not sure where to place Red Cadeaux and Mount Athos in this mix, but other than them it is a rough prediction of where they should finish. I am very excited for this race as per usual. Enjoy the race.
Tuesday, 6 November 2012
Friday, 21 September 2012
Weekend Highlights
Technically I don't think these are highlights since they are yet to occur, but there is certainly a lot to look forward to on both sides of the Tasman this weekend.
The Aon Insurance Brokers Handicap in the Hawkes Bay will see a lot of top Sprinters make their return for the Spring and Summer., several of the returning runners including Ginner Hart, Aspinal, and Capone have solid first up records to consider. This race will also feature the return of notable 3YO's for their 4YO season, Ginner Hart, Pellegrini and Capital Diamond. You would think the drop back in distance should suit Fritzy Boy, but there are others at lower weights who look a big threat. The Hombre is Group 1 Placed over this distance, he opened as favorite, good conditions on his home track will make him hard to beat even at 58kgs. Baby Guinness looks a danger stepping back into Handicap conditions, she was consistently solid last season, and will enjoy the step back from Group 1 class.
1. Baby Guinness ($7.50)
2. Ginner Hart ($4.50)
3. The Hombre ($4.20)
4. Capital Diamond ($10)
The Gold Trial Stakes is always a good race, they have a top field assembled which should prove a good gauge on form of the filled heading to the guineas. Kate was a very impressive winner here on the first day, and the fact she is paying $8 at the moment is a good indication of the quality of this race. Roll out the Carpet, was relegated from a Group 1 victory as a 2YO, but her win in the Matamata Breeders stakes is still the most impressive victory of any runner in this race - in terms of stature of the race. Fix was very highly regarded on her return run, and this could be a good sign for the chances of A Touch of Ruby who was narrowly beaten in that race. Soriano was solid in both 2YO Group 1's, again she was not far off Fix first up this season. The well named Waterford (I see what you did there) was better than solid late in the 2YO season. Cassie May was consistent at age two, she is already having her third start at age three, this is tougher, but the step up to 1200m should be an assistance. Oasis Rose is back after a long lay off, she showed ability at age 2, but it is hard to know what to expect. Pure Elegance is the favourite, re-watching that start you can see why, I have not seen the trial, but It must have been very impressive. Coastal Express is another who is back for a second start since May. Meleka Bella is stepping up in grade as a recent winner.
1. Pure Elegance ($3.20)
2. Kate ($8)
3. Fix ($6)
4. Rollout the Carpet ($6.50)
The Stayer's come out in the PGG Wrightson Premier, they will be aiming for the third day and beyond to the New Zealand Cup. Carrick is the favourite at very short odds, it is hard to see why based on his last start, and he will carry a kg more, however more distance and better ground will help, but he is nearly impossible to have at $2.80. Back in Black was very impressive on the first day, 2000m will be more suited, but his form was very up and down last year and he will carry more here. Flemington will be looking for this extra distance, he will be also down in weight, but he probably needs a couple more starts before you see him as a winning chance. Herman Munster enjoys the track and distance and might be a bit of value in the wet, unfortunately it looks dry on Saturday. Pero looks a good chance on paper and on the recent victory, but he is probably slightly under good value here.
Rumour Has It Now has been very consistent and looks a very good light weight chance. Seaflyte has never done much in the Bay, but this feels like the kind of race he could win, the weight looks right, the distance should suit, the conditions will be favourable, and the competition is not the hardest, he was second in this race last year carrying 54kg on a good track paying $21 coming off a 10th first up... the winner of that race was Back'n'Black.
1. Seaflyte ($18)
2. Pero ($5)
3. Back'n'Black ($8)
4. Rumour Has It Now ($14)
A note on Carrick - Whenever I see odds of $2.80 after a race like Carrick had two weeks ago I start to suspect there is something that I don't know or don't see.It is possible that Carrick is simply the class in this race, certainly he will be more favoured in these conditions and over 2000m. Frankly, I thought he was a bit overrated last year, I was shocked with the 3rd in the Derby, he was generations behind Silent Achiever, and his two wins have been for $5k and $13k. I would not be shocked to be proved wrong here, but either way it is hard to bet on him at $2.80.
Onto the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate, all I have are questions. Can Mufhasa bounce back with the step up to 1600m? Will Justanexcuse regress to the norm? How will Green Supreme handle WFA conditions this time?Who is special days? Will Special Days have more luck returning to New Zealand than other runners in the past? Was it only track conditions that have hurt He's Remarkable in recent starts? Can Fears Nothing break the 2nd up duck when in form? Everything is lining up nicely for a strong Shez Sinsational performance, is 1600m too short? How much of Fleur de Lune's last start performance was bad luck? Is Guiseppina a sprinter or a miler? (Postman's Daughter) Where would Full of Spirit rate in this field? How much difference will 2kg and 400m make to Villifye? Is this Xanadu's race to lose? Will the dry surface hurt Innovation's chances?
1. Xanadu ($4.50) - Too eye catching last start to turn down
2. Guiseppina ($6) - 200m more last time would have seen her close
3. Mufhasa ($4) - Still capable of winning this
4. Fleur de Lune ($16) - has the Group 1 1600m record
A note on Mufhasa - I think he can win this, I have not picked him to do so. I have picked him for third, but I would be surprised to see him finish third. If he is at his best and still has the ability to win these races, then he will win on Saturday. If he is not, probably there are several others who may finish ahead of him, and he may find himself 6th or 7th. I think he still has it, so I have included him, but this will be a good indication.
A note on Shez Sinsational and He's Remarkable - Conditions, Conditions, WFA?. Too Short, Too Short, Conditions, Luck?. Those are valid excuses for the recent performances of He's Remarkable first and Shez Sinsational second over their past 3/4 starts. I do have a question mark over He's Remarkable at WFA on Saturday, and I do have a question mark over Shez Sinsational at 1600m. Bad luck can strike at any time, but on Saturday I would expect to see better performances from both of these runners, at 1600m Shez Sinsational should be running on strongly and could grab a place. He's Remarkable has won carrying more than the 53kg he carried in the Railway, but I am starting to suspect he might be a tad overrated.
I still have no idea on this race, I like Xanadu, and could talk myself into any one of about 6 other runners for 2nd through 4th. My first draft had Xanadu, He's Remarkable, Fleur de Lune, and Mufhasa as the first four. I can also see Postman's Daughter, Villifye and Shez Sinsational going well.
Melbourne
Underwood Stakes
The winner here could become the Cox Plate second favourite. Ocean Park's first Aussie start, it will be very exciting. It is hard to go past Manighar after the last start second, he would have won if that race had gone another 5 meters and really killed them with another 200m. December Draw was possibly slightly unlucky in that race, but probably not unlucky enough to see him winning this, although 200m will help.I have never been a big fan of Sincero in Melbourne, that may change if he continues his recent form, I still see it as hard to have at $5 despite the quality of the Memsie field he beat. I would expect to see better things from the likes of Illo, Maluckyday, Mawingo, and Niwot. Drunken Sailor could figure fresh. There are also the imports to consider.
I think Manighar will take this out, but it should be a good race with a lot of runners to note. Ocean Park for Second, Southern Speed will be close and Mawingo to round out my first 4. However I think I still need to get by bearings on these runners.
The day in Melbourne is great with the 1000 Guineas Prelude. Single Minded and Zurella in the Naturalism, excited to see Zurella again. Then we get another look at Mosheen in the last.
Sydney
Its a Dundeel and other Derby hopeful 3YO's start off the day in Sydney. Three races later we will see more 3YO's on display in the Group2 Tea Rose.
I would expect a far better effort from Quintessential in the Group 1 George Main Stakes, but this is tougher. All Too Hard is carrying nothing, secret Admirer was very good in the last couple of races, and Danleigh was a very impressive winner last start. There are many others who can figure, it is sure to be a great race.
I thought Mourayan was very good last start, this is tough, but there looks to be some value at $7. Lots of other runners here who will be heading to the big spring races, this is one to watch.
The Aon Insurance Brokers Handicap in the Hawkes Bay will see a lot of top Sprinters make their return for the Spring and Summer., several of the returning runners including Ginner Hart, Aspinal, and Capone have solid first up records to consider. This race will also feature the return of notable 3YO's for their 4YO season, Ginner Hart, Pellegrini and Capital Diamond. You would think the drop back in distance should suit Fritzy Boy, but there are others at lower weights who look a big threat. The Hombre is Group 1 Placed over this distance, he opened as favorite, good conditions on his home track will make him hard to beat even at 58kgs. Baby Guinness looks a danger stepping back into Handicap conditions, she was consistently solid last season, and will enjoy the step back from Group 1 class.
1. Baby Guinness ($7.50)
2. Ginner Hart ($4.50)
3. The Hombre ($4.20)
4. Capital Diamond ($10)
The Gold Trial Stakes is always a good race, they have a top field assembled which should prove a good gauge on form of the filled heading to the guineas. Kate was a very impressive winner here on the first day, and the fact she is paying $8 at the moment is a good indication of the quality of this race. Roll out the Carpet, was relegated from a Group 1 victory as a 2YO, but her win in the Matamata Breeders stakes is still the most impressive victory of any runner in this race - in terms of stature of the race. Fix was very highly regarded on her return run, and this could be a good sign for the chances of A Touch of Ruby who was narrowly beaten in that race. Soriano was solid in both 2YO Group 1's, again she was not far off Fix first up this season. The well named Waterford (I see what you did there) was better than solid late in the 2YO season. Cassie May was consistent at age two, she is already having her third start at age three, this is tougher, but the step up to 1200m should be an assistance. Oasis Rose is back after a long lay off, she showed ability at age 2, but it is hard to know what to expect. Pure Elegance is the favourite, re-watching that start you can see why, I have not seen the trial, but It must have been very impressive. Coastal Express is another who is back for a second start since May. Meleka Bella is stepping up in grade as a recent winner.
1. Pure Elegance ($3.20)
2. Kate ($8)
3. Fix ($6)
4. Rollout the Carpet ($6.50)
The Stayer's come out in the PGG Wrightson Premier, they will be aiming for the third day and beyond to the New Zealand Cup. Carrick is the favourite at very short odds, it is hard to see why based on his last start, and he will carry a kg more, however more distance and better ground will help, but he is nearly impossible to have at $2.80. Back in Black was very impressive on the first day, 2000m will be more suited, but his form was very up and down last year and he will carry more here. Flemington will be looking for this extra distance, he will be also down in weight, but he probably needs a couple more starts before you see him as a winning chance. Herman Munster enjoys the track and distance and might be a bit of value in the wet, unfortunately it looks dry on Saturday. Pero looks a good chance on paper and on the recent victory, but he is probably slightly under good value here.
Rumour Has It Now has been very consistent and looks a very good light weight chance. Seaflyte has never done much in the Bay, but this feels like the kind of race he could win, the weight looks right, the distance should suit, the conditions will be favourable, and the competition is not the hardest, he was second in this race last year carrying 54kg on a good track paying $21 coming off a 10th first up... the winner of that race was Back'n'Black.
1. Seaflyte ($18)
2. Pero ($5)
3. Back'n'Black ($8)
4. Rumour Has It Now ($14)
A note on Carrick - Whenever I see odds of $2.80 after a race like Carrick had two weeks ago I start to suspect there is something that I don't know or don't see.It is possible that Carrick is simply the class in this race, certainly he will be more favoured in these conditions and over 2000m. Frankly, I thought he was a bit overrated last year, I was shocked with the 3rd in the Derby, he was generations behind Silent Achiever, and his two wins have been for $5k and $13k. I would not be shocked to be proved wrong here, but either way it is hard to bet on him at $2.80.
Onto the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate, all I have are questions. Can Mufhasa bounce back with the step up to 1600m? Will Justanexcuse regress to the norm? How will Green Supreme handle WFA conditions this time?
1. Xanadu ($4.50) - Too eye catching last start to turn down
2. Guiseppina ($6) - 200m more last time would have seen her close
3. Mufhasa ($4) - Still capable of winning this
4. Fleur de Lune ($16) - has the Group 1 1600m record
A note on Mufhasa - I think he can win this, I have not picked him to do so. I have picked him for third, but I would be surprised to see him finish third. If he is at his best and still has the ability to win these races, then he will win on Saturday. If he is not, probably there are several others who may finish ahead of him, and he may find himself 6th or 7th. I think he still has it, so I have included him, but this will be a good indication.
A note on Shez Sinsational and He's Remarkable - Conditions, Conditions, WFA?. Too Short, Too Short, Conditions, Luck?. Those are valid excuses for the recent performances of He's Remarkable first and Shez Sinsational second over their past 3/4 starts. I do have a question mark over He's Remarkable at WFA on Saturday, and I do have a question mark over Shez Sinsational at 1600m. Bad luck can strike at any time, but on Saturday I would expect to see better performances from both of these runners, at 1600m Shez Sinsational should be running on strongly and could grab a place. He's Remarkable has won carrying more than the 53kg he carried in the Railway, but I am starting to suspect he might be a tad overrated.
I still have no idea on this race, I like Xanadu, and could talk myself into any one of about 6 other runners for 2nd through 4th. My first draft had Xanadu, He's Remarkable, Fleur de Lune, and Mufhasa as the first four. I can also see Postman's Daughter, Villifye and Shez Sinsational going well.
Melbourne
Underwood Stakes
The winner here could become the Cox Plate second favourite. Ocean Park's first Aussie start, it will be very exciting. It is hard to go past Manighar after the last start second, he would have won if that race had gone another 5 meters and really killed them with another 200m. December Draw was possibly slightly unlucky in that race, but probably not unlucky enough to see him winning this, although 200m will help.I have never been a big fan of Sincero in Melbourne, that may change if he continues his recent form, I still see it as hard to have at $5 despite the quality of the Memsie field he beat. I would expect to see better things from the likes of Illo, Maluckyday, Mawingo, and Niwot. Drunken Sailor could figure fresh. There are also the imports to consider.
I think Manighar will take this out, but it should be a good race with a lot of runners to note. Ocean Park for Second, Southern Speed will be close and Mawingo to round out my first 4. However I think I still need to get by bearings on these runners.
The day in Melbourne is great with the 1000 Guineas Prelude. Single Minded and Zurella in the Naturalism, excited to see Zurella again. Then we get another look at Mosheen in the last.
Sydney
Its a Dundeel and other Derby hopeful 3YO's start off the day in Sydney. Three races later we will see more 3YO's on display in the Group2 Tea Rose.
I would expect a far better effort from Quintessential in the Group 1 George Main Stakes, but this is tougher. All Too Hard is carrying nothing, secret Admirer was very good in the last couple of races, and Danleigh was a very impressive winner last start. There are many others who can figure, it is sure to be a great race.
I thought Mourayan was very good last start, this is tough, but there looks to be some value at $7. Lots of other runners here who will be heading to the big spring races, this is one to watch.
Wednesday, 19 September 2012
Spring Notes - 15 September
Things are starting to get pretty serious, so once again I am here to share with you the notes I made while watching some of the bigger races in New Zealand and Australia over the weekend. As always prices at per the NZ TAB
Ruakaka
2YO's
With every runner having their first race day start there was only a couple of trials to rely on for punters. 2YO's really ramp up in the New Year, so hard to say how meaningful a race like this could be, but it may shed some light on the early season listed races for the 2YO age group.
All seemed to travel pretty well, the winner Doubtless really walloped them pulling away to win comfortably. Cant see too many excuses for the rest of them, the next three all finished in quick succession, Almansa (4th) attacking slightly earlier than the others and probably having to do a bit of extra work.
3YO's
Westbruy Stud Challenge Stakes
Well you can all call me crazy. I thought this was a strong field heading into the race, and expect it to be a reasonably strong indication of form moving forward.
Sacred Falls was dominant, had a fairly easy trip, took a bit to wind up once he saw space, but really looked great with a comfortable win.
Southern Lord showed us a solid finish, he struck on next to the eventual winner in the straight, but Sacred falls was just a bit too powerful as Southern Lord dropped away. He probably had to work a bit harder during the race and possibly is closer to Sacred Falls than this race indicated.
Travino looked to struggle for a run, he did find some space and closed on Southern Lord.
King Zeus made ground well, but again was possibly suck in some traffic as Charlie Farley went back through the field, and then again behind Travino.
D'Cash Man finished 4th, he did a lot of work leading and fourth was a strong result.
Elysium really struggled for space, she was still probably 2nd last with 150m to go, she then really came home well into 6th. She was the only filly in the race and certainly held her own.
Silverdale probably does have a bit of an excuse, was last on the turn and had some space on the rail to make a run, but had to make an adjustment to get around Charlie Farley, he accelerated again, but slipped to 7th. He may offer value to someone next start.
1000 Guineas
Elysium - $12
2000 Guineas
D'Cash Man $51
Elysium $31
King Zeus $26
Sacred Falls $7
Silverdale $61
Southern Lord $41
Travino $31
Spring Championship Stakes
King Zeus $61
It is a long way out and a lot can change, but certainly some interesting odds on offer there.
Antonio Lombardo was a group 1 contender heading into his 3YO season, I think he showed that he should remain as a contender this season. He had a fairly solid trip, and actually got a challenge as he wound up and eased away from them. Simple really.
Marton
Metric Mile
No Excuse Maggie was probably caught a little wide early on and had to work. She never really settled into a comfortable position to get into the race.
Amberio had such a nice journey around the track, she showed very good fight, conditions suited and she was only carrying 53kg, but possibly can keep up this solid form as the ratings rise.
Flemington is obviously seeking more distance and looked to pull up over the last 100m or so.
As good as Dubai Belle looked I think it might be hard to see her doing it again in handicap conditions, she wont get that much weight relief and the conditions really suited her well. She has been consistently good recently and seen her rating go from 72 up to 95, but possibly might be one to keep watching on wet tracks.
I thought Zennista looked pretty good for 5th, and Khemosabi held on well for 4th, and Art Beat arrived strongly for 6th.
Spring Classic
Zennista $31 - More distance should suit, WFA is not a concern
Flemington $31
Superturf $101 - Kept fighting for third and looked good but would be hard to take at WFA.
New Zealand Cup
Beau Dane - $41
Flemington $12
Melbourne
Race 1 - 3YO Hcp - Very impressed by Philippi he really wound up to win. Second placed Carringbush Jack seemed to wind up and extend late. Forget seemed inferior to the first two, but still finished strongly and Adjuster set a good pace and just ran out of steam.
Race 2 - 3YOF - Saturn Rock is one we are familiar with with New Zealand, she trailed at the back of the field but looked comfortable. She had to work hard for her run but finally found space at about 150m and came hard to finish third.
Love for Ransom came from further back than Saturn rock probably 2 lengths behind Saturn Rock on the turn and probably extended the lead about a length in the final 50m. Setlla Lante worked hard around the bend and found some space. Mama's Choice was solid and probably lifted again very late. There was a solid finish by Malasun to finish 5th.
A lot of the 3YO's are 1000 Guineas and Caulfield Guineas nominated
Race 3 - Adapt Australia Handicap- Precedence back to winning form and under a big weight. He had to do a bit of work when he attacked early, Michael Rodd went for the whip around the bend. He really wound up and scored going away from them. Spacecraft led and put in a pretty solid run, he kept finding. New Zealand St Ledger champion Guns and Five looked good for 1600m, really wound up and showing his best form in Aussie so far. Ebony Rock finished fifth, but looked to be craving more ground with a strong finish, 1700m is the longest he has gone so far, but may improve over more distance.
Caulfield Cup
Precedence $61
Guns and Five $101
Melbourne Cup
Precedence $51
Guns at Five $101
Race 4 - Japan Trophy - Saw Tanby carrying a big weight, worked home pretty well, but just couldn't really do enough with a 4kg difference, not the worst effort.
Tanby
Melbourne Cup $81
Caulfield Cup $26
The Metropolitan $18
Buxted
The Metropolitan $18
Melbourne Cup $101
Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes
Happy Trails - fought really hard, he actually looked gone and then just seemed to find more.
Green Moon - had a pretty cosy run, he came hard as the two leaders pulled away, almost got there. Looks set to meet Happy Trails 1.5kg worse off currently in the Caulfield Cup, but that will likely change depending on acceptances.
Rekindled Interest - came from about mid field and finished hard into 3rd, a length and a half back, but should get more distance. Cox plate might be tough.
Linton - Looked rejuvenated, wasn't doing much on the corner then followed Rekindled Interest well.
Sneak a Peak - was coming home over the top of other runners.
Ethiopia - Eye catching run for 7th. Will get another kg off over the longer Cox Plate distance.
Current Odds
Ethiopia - Cox Plate $41 - Melbourne Cup $26
Green Moon - Cox Plate $10 - Caulfield Cup $13 - Melbourne Cup - $13 Metropolitan $10
Happy Trails - Cox Plate $21 - Happy Trails $41
Linton- Cox Plate Cox Plate $26 - Caulfield Cup $26 - Melbourne Cup -$31
Rekindled Interest - Cox Plate $12 - Epsom Handicap $16
Sneak a Peak - Cox Plate $81 - Caulfield Cup $41 Melbourne Cup $61
Top Cut Stocks Stakes
Chicharita - Improved in her second Melbourne Start, will continue to improve over more distance. She settled well, but drifted rare and seemed slow to react when the speed was raised. She finished very well for 7th.
Oasis Bloom showed a very strong finish to win.
I thought Dame Claire found another gear late, too late, she was 8th, but looked pretty good.
Spirit Song was narrowly beaten and Oasis Bloom pulled away, but Spirit Song really pushed hard down the inside, possibly unlucky.
Avienus finished really well, but was just out finished by Chateau Margaux.
Current Odds
Avienus - Caulfield Cup $201
Chateau Margaux - Epsom $101 Caulfield Cup $51
Chicharita - The Metripolitian - $81 Caulfield Cup $101 Melbourne Cup $201
Dame Claire - Caulfield Cup $151 Melbourne Cup $301
Sydney - Just a couple of relevant Sydney notes
More Joyous was so good. She looked very calm and relaxed prior to the race, settled in Second and pulled away for the easy win. Likely not to race the Epsom ($10). This Cox Plate is shaping up like an awesome race ($6.50)
Golden Rose
The whole point of these notes is that once runners start having several starts you can build up a bit of history and begin to form opinions. Two weeks ago I showed you odds for Epaulette without commenting on his performance, he looks to have a bight immediate future.
Epaulette and Albrecht both looked very good, they were both trailing the field and came from last very quickly to draw away from the rest for victory. The next two home Ashokan and Ninth Legion both looked as strong as each other but certainly weren't getting any closer to wining.
Cox Plate
Epaulette $41
Ninth Legion $201
Spring Championship Stakes
Ninth Legion $8
Kingstown Town Stakes
The first two Stout Hearted and Crafty Irna travelled well, Stout Hearted caught Strawberry Boy and just comfortably drew away. Crafty Irna fought hard to make up a lot of ground, but probably stopped gaining with about 50m to go. Strawberry Boy was not too bad, he just ran out of steam. Praecido and Ironstein both made good ground from deep, but stopped getting closer. The Verminator possibly struggled to get the best run in the straight and Maules Creek ran out of steam over the 2000m.
Crafty Irna - The Metropolitan - $18
Ironstein - Caulfield Cup $201 Melbourne Cup $101
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31
Praecido - The Metropolitan $61
The Verminator - The Metropolitan $26 Caulfield Cup $101 Melbourne Cup $101
Strawberry Boy - Epsom $16 - The Metropolitan $14 (Status uncertain for both Sydney races) Caulfield Cup $61 Melbourne Cup $151
Stout Hearted - The Metropolitan $12 Caulfield Cup $31 Melbourne Cup $51
Ruakaka
2YO's
With every runner having their first race day start there was only a couple of trials to rely on for punters. 2YO's really ramp up in the New Year, so hard to say how meaningful a race like this could be, but it may shed some light on the early season listed races for the 2YO age group.
All seemed to travel pretty well, the winner Doubtless really walloped them pulling away to win comfortably. Cant see too many excuses for the rest of them, the next three all finished in quick succession, Almansa (4th) attacking slightly earlier than the others and probably having to do a bit of extra work.
3YO's
Westbruy Stud Challenge Stakes
Well you can all call me crazy. I thought this was a strong field heading into the race, and expect it to be a reasonably strong indication of form moving forward.
Sacred Falls was dominant, had a fairly easy trip, took a bit to wind up once he saw space, but really looked great with a comfortable win.
Southern Lord showed us a solid finish, he struck on next to the eventual winner in the straight, but Sacred falls was just a bit too powerful as Southern Lord dropped away. He probably had to work a bit harder during the race and possibly is closer to Sacred Falls than this race indicated.
Travino looked to struggle for a run, he did find some space and closed on Southern Lord.
King Zeus made ground well, but again was possibly suck in some traffic as Charlie Farley went back through the field, and then again behind Travino.
D'Cash Man finished 4th, he did a lot of work leading and fourth was a strong result.
Elysium really struggled for space, she was still probably 2nd last with 150m to go, she then really came home well into 6th. She was the only filly in the race and certainly held her own.
Silverdale probably does have a bit of an excuse, was last on the turn and had some space on the rail to make a run, but had to make an adjustment to get around Charlie Farley, he accelerated again, but slipped to 7th. He may offer value to someone next start.
1000 Guineas
Elysium - $12
2000 Guineas
D'Cash Man $51
Elysium $31
King Zeus $26
Sacred Falls $7
Silverdale $61
Southern Lord $41
Travino $31
Spring Championship Stakes
King Zeus $61
It is a long way out and a lot can change, but certainly some interesting odds on offer there.
Antonio Lombardo was a group 1 contender heading into his 3YO season, I think he showed that he should remain as a contender this season. He had a fairly solid trip, and actually got a challenge as he wound up and eased away from them. Simple really.
Marton
Metric Mile
No Excuse Maggie was probably caught a little wide early on and had to work. She never really settled into a comfortable position to get into the race.
Amberio had such a nice journey around the track, she showed very good fight, conditions suited and she was only carrying 53kg, but possibly can keep up this solid form as the ratings rise.
Flemington is obviously seeking more distance and looked to pull up over the last 100m or so.
As good as Dubai Belle looked I think it might be hard to see her doing it again in handicap conditions, she wont get that much weight relief and the conditions really suited her well. She has been consistently good recently and seen her rating go from 72 up to 95, but possibly might be one to keep watching on wet tracks.
I thought Zennista looked pretty good for 5th, and Khemosabi held on well for 4th, and Art Beat arrived strongly for 6th.
Spring Classic
Zennista $31 - More distance should suit, WFA is not a concern
Flemington $31
Superturf $101 - Kept fighting for third and looked good but would be hard to take at WFA.
New Zealand Cup
Beau Dane - $41
Flemington $12
Melbourne
Race 1 - 3YO Hcp - Very impressed by Philippi he really wound up to win. Second placed Carringbush Jack seemed to wind up and extend late. Forget seemed inferior to the first two, but still finished strongly and Adjuster set a good pace and just ran out of steam.
Race 2 - 3YOF - Saturn Rock is one we are familiar with with New Zealand, she trailed at the back of the field but looked comfortable. She had to work hard for her run but finally found space at about 150m and came hard to finish third.
Love for Ransom came from further back than Saturn rock probably 2 lengths behind Saturn Rock on the turn and probably extended the lead about a length in the final 50m. Setlla Lante worked hard around the bend and found some space. Mama's Choice was solid and probably lifted again very late. There was a solid finish by Malasun to finish 5th.
A lot of the 3YO's are 1000 Guineas and Caulfield Guineas nominated
Race 3 - Adapt Australia Handicap- Precedence back to winning form and under a big weight. He had to do a bit of work when he attacked early, Michael Rodd went for the whip around the bend. He really wound up and scored going away from them. Spacecraft led and put in a pretty solid run, he kept finding. New Zealand St Ledger champion Guns and Five looked good for 1600m, really wound up and showing his best form in Aussie so far. Ebony Rock finished fifth, but looked to be craving more ground with a strong finish, 1700m is the longest he has gone so far, but may improve over more distance.
Caulfield Cup
Precedence $61
Guns and Five $101
Melbourne Cup
Precedence $51
Guns at Five $101
Race 4 - Japan Trophy - Saw Tanby carrying a big weight, worked home pretty well, but just couldn't really do enough with a 4kg difference, not the worst effort.
Tanby
Melbourne Cup $81
Caulfield Cup $26
The Metropolitan $18
Buxted
The Metropolitan $18
Melbourne Cup $101
Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes
Happy Trails - fought really hard, he actually looked gone and then just seemed to find more.
Green Moon - had a pretty cosy run, he came hard as the two leaders pulled away, almost got there. Looks set to meet Happy Trails 1.5kg worse off currently in the Caulfield Cup, but that will likely change depending on acceptances.
Rekindled Interest - came from about mid field and finished hard into 3rd, a length and a half back, but should get more distance. Cox plate might be tough.
Linton - Looked rejuvenated, wasn't doing much on the corner then followed Rekindled Interest well.
Sneak a Peak - was coming home over the top of other runners.
Ethiopia - Eye catching run for 7th. Will get another kg off over the longer Cox Plate distance.
Current Odds
Ethiopia - Cox Plate $41 - Melbourne Cup $26
Green Moon - Cox Plate $10 - Caulfield Cup $13 - Melbourne Cup - $13 Metropolitan $10
Happy Trails - Cox Plate $21 - Happy Trails $41
Linton- Cox Plate Cox Plate $26 - Caulfield Cup $26 - Melbourne Cup -$31
Rekindled Interest - Cox Plate $12 - Epsom Handicap $16
Sneak a Peak - Cox Plate $81 - Caulfield Cup $41 Melbourne Cup $61
Top Cut Stocks Stakes
Chicharita - Improved in her second Melbourne Start, will continue to improve over more distance. She settled well, but drifted rare and seemed slow to react when the speed was raised. She finished very well for 7th.
Oasis Bloom showed a very strong finish to win.
I thought Dame Claire found another gear late, too late, she was 8th, but looked pretty good.
Spirit Song was narrowly beaten and Oasis Bloom pulled away, but Spirit Song really pushed hard down the inside, possibly unlucky.
Avienus finished really well, but was just out finished by Chateau Margaux.
Current Odds
Avienus - Caulfield Cup $201
Chateau Margaux - Epsom $101 Caulfield Cup $51
Chicharita - The Metripolitian - $81 Caulfield Cup $101 Melbourne Cup $201
Dame Claire - Caulfield Cup $151 Melbourne Cup $301
Sydney - Just a couple of relevant Sydney notes
More Joyous was so good. She looked very calm and relaxed prior to the race, settled in Second and pulled away for the easy win. Likely not to race the Epsom ($10). This Cox Plate is shaping up like an awesome race ($6.50)
Golden Rose
The whole point of these notes is that once runners start having several starts you can build up a bit of history and begin to form opinions. Two weeks ago I showed you odds for Epaulette without commenting on his performance, he looks to have a bight immediate future.
Epaulette and Albrecht both looked very good, they were both trailing the field and came from last very quickly to draw away from the rest for victory. The next two home Ashokan and Ninth Legion both looked as strong as each other but certainly weren't getting any closer to wining.
Cox Plate
Epaulette $41
Ninth Legion $201
Spring Championship Stakes
Ninth Legion $8
Kingstown Town Stakes
The first two Stout Hearted and Crafty Irna travelled well, Stout Hearted caught Strawberry Boy and just comfortably drew away. Crafty Irna fought hard to make up a lot of ground, but probably stopped gaining with about 50m to go. Strawberry Boy was not too bad, he just ran out of steam. Praecido and Ironstein both made good ground from deep, but stopped getting closer. The Verminator possibly struggled to get the best run in the straight and Maules Creek ran out of steam over the 2000m.
Crafty Irna - The Metropolitan - $18
Ironstein - Caulfield Cup $201 Melbourne Cup $101
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31
Praecido - The Metropolitan $61
The Verminator - The Metropolitan $26 Caulfield Cup $101 Melbourne Cup $101
Strawberry Boy - Epsom $16 - The Metropolitan $14 (Status uncertain for both Sydney races) Caulfield Cup $61 Melbourne Cup $151
Stout Hearted - The Metropolitan $12 Caulfield Cup $31 Melbourne Cup $51
Saturday, 15 September 2012
Going Crazy for 3YO's
This was going to be a short tweet, but then I realised I had more than a couple of thoughts on the 3YO feature from Ruakaka today.
I decided to go back and watch the last couple of starts of all the runners at the NZ Racing site.
There are so many runners starting today who were recent winners or close up last start.
On video the most impressive three wins that I saw were from Elysium (pulled away from them), King Zeus (covered a lot of extra ground in testing conditions), and Sacred Falls (two impressive and different victories).
There were 3 other runners who looked good, Buckland Boy (winner of last two on this track), D'Cash Man ( two strong leading runs), and Silverdale (strong finishing run against tough competition two start back), Southern Lords last start win was also impressive.
Then you have to throw Travino into the mix, he was excellent last year early in the season, he continued to compete at group 1 level. He will likely go well fresh.
So, this leaves me little chance of finding a winner; I just got confused and kept jumping back and forth as I watched each performance.
I think that I have gone crazy, the run that impressed me and is staying with me was the last start victory of Charlie Farley. Yes, he finished 7th behind Sacred Falls in Hamilton 3 starts ago, but his win on this track was eye-catching. He raced 3 wide the whole way, without cover, and toward the back of the field, then he just simply bolted in. He must have covered at least 1200m, he will probably get better over more distance anyway, he has the advantage of the draw. This is a step up and will be a challenge, but when I saw the bookies quote of $21 and $6 I thought that if I can't pick a winner here, picking a value place option might be just as good.
Then again, as I said, maybe I am going crazy.
I decided to go back and watch the last couple of starts of all the runners at the NZ Racing site.
There are so many runners starting today who were recent winners or close up last start.
On video the most impressive three wins that I saw were from Elysium (pulled away from them), King Zeus (covered a lot of extra ground in testing conditions), and Sacred Falls (two impressive and different victories).
There were 3 other runners who looked good, Buckland Boy (winner of last two on this track), D'Cash Man ( two strong leading runs), and Silverdale (strong finishing run against tough competition two start back), Southern Lords last start win was also impressive.
Then you have to throw Travino into the mix, he was excellent last year early in the season, he continued to compete at group 1 level. He will likely go well fresh.
So, this leaves me little chance of finding a winner; I just got confused and kept jumping back and forth as I watched each performance.
I think that I have gone crazy, the run that impressed me and is staying with me was the last start victory of Charlie Farley. Yes, he finished 7th behind Sacred Falls in Hamilton 3 starts ago, but his win on this track was eye-catching. He raced 3 wide the whole way, without cover, and toward the back of the field, then he just simply bolted in. He must have covered at least 1200m, he will probably get better over more distance anyway, he has the advantage of the draw. This is a step up and will be a challenge, but when I saw the bookies quote of $21 and $6 I thought that if I can't pick a winner here, picking a value place option might be just as good.
Then again, as I said, maybe I am going crazy.
Thursday, 13 September 2012
Racing Reality
Shameful confession time; I watched The Ridges last night (hey, I live with Girls). It was an amazing 30 minutes of TV; amazing because nothing happened. No conflict, no interesting plot twists, no staged over-produced segments (with the exception of the mouse release in the kitchen). This was not the Kardashian's, on that show the producers at least have the decency to put the characters in situations where something interesting has a chance to happen. In some ways that made The Ridges the most REAL of all the reality TV shows, just two people with normal, boring, mundane lives.
Needless to say TV3's recent foray into prime-time fly-on-the-wall style reality TV is here to stay. You can debate the quality, but, like The GC, I am confident The Ridges will get ratings. Did I just sit back and watch? Nay (neigh?), I got brainstorming. Today, I present to you short pitches for TV3's next reality show, based around racing.
Race Vets
Medical related reality shows are popular. Animal related reality shows are popular. See where I am heading with this? Camera crews follow a bustling Veterinary clinic in Matamata throughout the racing season dealing with all the ailments which crop up in the racing industry.
Punters
This show will follow three punters over a period of 10 weeks. A grizzly veteran, a young up-and-coming gambler, and a novice with no racing experience (one of them a woman) . Each week our punters will be staked with $10,000, the show will follow the experts analysing the racing and placing bets, while the novice will use a different betting/analysing/staking system each week which they have found in a book or some dark corner of the internet. The show follows the ups and downs of big wins and bad beats.
The George Simon Experience
Who is this mysterious voice of the north? Who generates the dulcet baritone heard throughout the concourses and grandstands of Ellerslie and other northern racing venues? This show follows New Zealand's favourite race caller (or mine at least) as he travels the country in search of the perfect call. The preparation, the home life, the interactions of the daily life of George Simon. It also has great potential for crossovers into TV3's other reality IP such as, GS on the GC (George Simon travels to the GC to call a race meeting at Gold Coast race track), or the Ridges at the Races.
The Centre
Behind the scenes of New Zealand's busiest race track (I don't know if that is a fact, but it will certainly help promote a fictitious TV show). Ellerslie's Event Centre is not only a venue for race meetings, but it is also a function centre hosting a range of events from balls and trade shows, to weddings and gigs. There is a host of possible drama when it comes to staging these events which can be nicely exploited in reality TV. The show will be shot around the 12 weeks leading up to Auckland Cup Week, with all the preparation and organisation for the week itself as well as the other events which take place at Ellerslie racecourse over the summer.
The Apprentice
Probably an unusable working title, we could have a subtitle ":the Jockey edition", I also liked "New Zealand's next top Jockey". This show will bring together 10 wannabe apprentice jockeys and one top racing stable. Each week the potential jockeys will compete in challenges related to racing, riding, and stable life to avoid elimination and hope to gain a position as the next apprentice jockey for the stable.
Yearlings
Karaka, January 2013, the hammer drops, David Ellis has just paid top dollar for another prized yearling. This show will follow the top 5 highest priced yearlings to remain in New Zealand from the Karaka sales as they are trained towards their career as a racehorse. The challenges and the triumphs of the stable as they hope to create another champion.
Well, that wasn't so hard. No wonder production companies like reality TV, you don't require a single original thought to create one. Lets hope someone with some juice is reading this and we can see some of these on our screens next year to save ourselves from Season 2 of The Ridges.
Needless to say TV3's recent foray into prime-time fly-on-the-wall style reality TV is here to stay. You can debate the quality, but, like The GC, I am confident The Ridges will get ratings. Did I just sit back and watch? Nay (neigh?), I got brainstorming. Today, I present to you short pitches for TV3's next reality show, based around racing.
Race Vets
Medical related reality shows are popular. Animal related reality shows are popular. See where I am heading with this? Camera crews follow a bustling Veterinary clinic in Matamata throughout the racing season dealing with all the ailments which crop up in the racing industry.
Punters
This show will follow three punters over a period of 10 weeks. A grizzly veteran, a young up-and-coming gambler, and a novice with no racing experience (one of them a woman) . Each week our punters will be staked with $10,000, the show will follow the experts analysing the racing and placing bets, while the novice will use a different betting/analysing/staking system each week which they have found in a book or some dark corner of the internet. The show follows the ups and downs of big wins and bad beats.
The George Simon Experience
Who is this mysterious voice of the north? Who generates the dulcet baritone heard throughout the concourses and grandstands of Ellerslie and other northern racing venues? This show follows New Zealand's favourite race caller (or mine at least) as he travels the country in search of the perfect call. The preparation, the home life, the interactions of the daily life of George Simon. It also has great potential for crossovers into TV3's other reality IP such as, GS on the GC (George Simon travels to the GC to call a race meeting at Gold Coast race track), or the Ridges at the Races.
The Centre
Behind the scenes of New Zealand's busiest race track (I don't know if that is a fact, but it will certainly help promote a fictitious TV show). Ellerslie's Event Centre is not only a venue for race meetings, but it is also a function centre hosting a range of events from balls and trade shows, to weddings and gigs. There is a host of possible drama when it comes to staging these events which can be nicely exploited in reality TV. The show will be shot around the 12 weeks leading up to Auckland Cup Week, with all the preparation and organisation for the week itself as well as the other events which take place at Ellerslie racecourse over the summer.
The Apprentice
Probably an unusable working title, we could have a subtitle ":the Jockey edition", I also liked "New Zealand's next top Jockey". This show will bring together 10 wannabe apprentice jockeys and one top racing stable. Each week the potential jockeys will compete in challenges related to racing, riding, and stable life to avoid elimination and hope to gain a position as the next apprentice jockey for the stable.
Yearlings
Karaka, January 2013, the hammer drops, David Ellis has just paid top dollar for another prized yearling. This show will follow the top 5 highest priced yearlings to remain in New Zealand from the Karaka sales as they are trained towards their career as a racehorse. The challenges and the triumphs of the stable as they hope to create another champion.
Well, that wasn't so hard. No wonder production companies like reality TV, you don't require a single original thought to create one. Lets hope someone with some juice is reading this and we can see some of these on our screens next year to save ourselves from Season 2 of The Ridges.
Monday, 10 September 2012
Spring Notes - 9 September 2012
After digesting a good portion of the racing action from New Zealand
and Australia on Saturday I went back and zipped through all of the
action again on Sunday to figure out what I learned about some of the
major contenders for the big races this Spring. My comments for New
Zealand races are a little more thought out, my comments on Australian
races are almost exactly what I jotted down as I watched them and
replayed them. All price quotes are per the New Zealand TAB.
Auckland
The most notable race was the JRA trophy, this race featured Shez Sinsational and a host of other runners who are likely to show up in feature races in the next few months.
Shez Sinational - 1400m is always going to be slightly shorter than ideal, handicap conditions suited some of her rivals, and the wet track (as we discovered in the Nathan's Memorial) was probably not going to suit. I am not sure we will quite see her at her best in the Windsor, and last year it took her a few starts to get that win. We probably saw the performance we needed to see from her, a battling run in unsuitable conditions, as soon as the races get closer to 2000m she will be a big danger.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate - $15, Spring Classic $5
Full of Spirit - looked very good when fresh up. She seems to handle all track conditions well, so should be solid over more distance for the rest of the spring. She is not currently nominated for anything in Australia (as far as I can see, but it looks like she will head that way), her only NZ nomination is the Couplands bakery mile in which you would expect her to be a go of chance.
Postmans Daughter - a favourite of mine, one who always seems to keep fighting. She looked positive again over the weekend, possibly faded relative to Full of Spirit over the last 50m but was strong against all others. She had the benefit of a great trip. Looks like another promising season ahead for her.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate $21 (look for place odds on the day), Spring Classic $14 (Value)
Atom Cat - A year ago he was in the WPP, this year he is not nominated for any of the big features yet, despite the fact the conditions may have assisted him, he finished off this race very strongly despite not getting much luck in the straight.
Carrick - Had to work hard to get into a position to make a run between the 600m and 400m marks, but not that much harder than Full of Spirit worked for her run. He finished off reasonably strongly but possibly faded over the final 150m. He has performed on a slow track in the past, he is possibly looking for more distance (although his two wins have been over 1200m and 1400m). He was only carrying 55kg, this is a bit of a concern heading into a WFA race where he would meet the likes of Postman's Daughter and Shez Sinsational relatively worse off.
Current odds - Windsor - $15 (hard to have), Spring Classic $10 (will have to improve, prefer Postmans Daughter at odds)
3YO's
Tough day to judge them, the track was not great. These conditions are often what we see in Canterbury in November, so it is probably worth taking notes.
Twilight Granita - I loved the run, how much extra ground did she cover? she was racing 4-5 wide at points around the bend. She just kept giving to get there and win. She has been consistent, seems to handle all conditions well, and a step in distance shouldn't hurt.She is nominated for the 1000 guineas, but odds are not yet released.
Kisses - Pretty strong fighting run for second. Not currently nominated, but seems to be the consistent type who is improving with each start.
Hollywood Angel - Horrible start, but she chased them down nicely and showed a strong finish into 6th, she most likely could have won without the bad luck. She is nominated for both Guineas and should be a threat.
Comical Lass - Kept closing into 4th. Seems to perform well on rain effected tracks (which is all she has seen so far).
Hazel - I expected better, she was not really seen. Definitely one to look at on a better track to see how she goes. Should improve 2nd up.
Liberating - Improved with racing before the second in the Matamata Breeders at age two. Looks like she will need a couple of starts this prep before she is at her best.
Ray's Girl - Seemed to keep finishing well after a poor start. Improved with racing last prep, may have been a bit too wet.
Snow Line - Used a bit of energy during the run, but I didn't see any justification for the pre-race price.
Warhorse - I am happy to forgive the favourite and suggest that he didn't handle the conditions when he faded late. He was 6th in the Wentwood Grange before winning a Group 3 last year, so I think we will see him improve into his next start.
Move Faster - I liked the late run of Swiper the Fox, but these two were basically side by side on the bend. Swiper the Fox unwound late, Move Faster accelerated consistently to win nicely. Move faster is yet to see a good track, but looks to be one to keep an eye on throughout the spring.
Batman - Didn't get the best trip, but ran home well living up to the trial form.
Swiper the Fox - Big finishing burst, had to work around the bend, will be stronger over more grounds. I think the conditions suited him.
Freedom - Worked hard to find a place to settle, but did find a handy position. Didn't show much at the finish, probably related to the conditions.
Hayleys Comet - Was far off them when he got a chance to run, but he did seem to come home pretty well, probably not the worst effort on display.
Australia - Sydney
Ming Dynasty
Magic Shaft - Didn't get a lot of luck, wide and probably over raced slightly before fading towards the end. Will need to improve to figure over 2000m. Probably hurt by 59kg in handicap conditions.
Current Odds - Spring Championship Stakes $31
Also Nominated - Caulfield Guineas
Overall I liked what I saw from all of the first 5 finishers, certainly the winner Tatra looked good and carried 58.5kg, and Honorius had a pretty strong finish into Third.
Current Odds
Spring Championship Stake
Tatra $9
Honorius $14
Proverb $14
Rowie $18
Sumarand $18
Golden Rose
Sumarand $41
Chelmsford Stakes
Danleigh was great in winning, and Secret admirer was a strong second. Lights of heaven didn't seem to do a lot, but will improve over more distance and in handicap conditions. Maules Creek showed a decent finish into 5th.
Current odds
Danleigh - Epsom $21 (Hard to have in a Handicap)
Secret Admirer - Epsom $11, Caulfield Cup $41, Cox Plate $21
Lights of Heaven - The Metropolitan $16, Caulfield Cup $31, Cox Plate $51, Melbourne Cup $51
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31, Caulfield Cup $101
Furious Stakes
Pussy Willow - Didn't seem like a great run, she was probably hurt by the pace and never really got into the race.
The first three (Dear Demi, Meidung, and Jade Marauder) all comfortably pulled away from the field, and looked good in their relative positions. Dear Demi won reasonably well, but all three impressed.
Current Odds
Pussy Willow - Nominated 1000 Guineas, will need to improve
Dear Demi - Golden Rose $26
Meidung - Golden Rose $26
Jade Marauder - - Golden Rose $26
Last at Sydney
Quintessenial - As good as a last can be (actually finished second last), certainly didn't get all the favours in the running and probably faded when he got blocked going for a run. I would forgive this run and look for value next start over more distance.
Epsom -$51
Caulfield Cup - $31
Melbourne Cup - $101
Australia - Melbourne
Lets Elope
Zurella - Awesome performance. She really had to fight hard for a run, and looked great when she got one. 55kg under handicap conditions, but as the races get harder she might not take too much of a penalty relative to the other runners she will face. Despite her second in the Oaks and strong Derby run, I felt that the 1400-1600m range was always her most suited distance. I expect she is probably heading to a Caulfield Cup, but she could also prove dangerous in a Myer Classic or Emirates Mile type race.
(Miss) Artistic - Not much between the Ritchie stablemates in the Oaks, but Artistic won, then had some success in Queensland and ended up carrying far more weight over the weekend. Still it was a pretty good performance. She will get better over more ground.
Hi Belle, kept on fighting into second. Lady Melksham fought well into fifth. Yosei unwound fairly late to beat Artistic and finish 6th.
Zurella - Caulfield Cup $31, Melbourne Cup $41
Artistic - Caulfield Cup $61 (good odds, she will improve), Melbourne Cup $101
Yosei - Caulfield Cup $151, Epsom $16, Cox Plate $101
Danehill Stakes
Snitzerland has an awesome name and was very impressive pulling away for victory after struggling for a run. Thought the first three were all pretty good and Swift Exit finished strongly for 5th at big odds.
Makybe Diva
The pace looked a little slow, but it was still an impressive win by Southern Speed to hold out the fast finishing Manighar. Lots of contenders here, the most notable Moudre running well and finishing third. December Draw was possibly a little unlucky, but ran on reasonably well. Efficient travelled wide and just didn't have a lot of finish. Moyuran picked up with pace over the last 100m. Dance With Her finished well late. Second Effort looked very good late coming from wide on the track (I think, I cant read my notes here).
The ones I would watch most closely are probably ones you already know to watch Manighar, Southern Speed, and I would like to see the improvement Second Effort takes from this.
Current Odds
December Draw- Caulfield Cup $26, Melbourne Cup $21, Cox Plate $26
Dance With Her - The Metropolitan $61, Caulfield Cup $101, Melbourne Cup $81
Efficient - The Metropolitan $21 (hard to recommend, will improve over more distance), Caulfield Cup $51, Melbourne Cup $41, Cox Plate $81
Manighar - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $14
Moudre - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $31, Cox Plate $51
Moyuran - The Metropolitan $26, Caulfield Cup $41, Melbourne Cup $51, Cox Plate $101
Southern Speed - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $21
Bobbie Lewis Quality
I think Anabandana is done, I was actually surprised to see her racing, I thought she had retired last year.
Mosheen will be better over more distance.
Sofitel Handicap
I thought the winner Excluded won very well and was pretty happy with what I saw from the first three (Exceptionally and Prizum).
Innocent Lady - was pretty average, she just faded on the bend.
The Jungle Boy - Had a very nice run, but didn't show much when it was time to really race.
Single Minded - Probably lasted 100m more than Innocent Lady. Will improve with more distance.
Current Odds
Excluded - The Metropolitan $18, Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $51
Exceptionally - Melbourne Cup $61
Single Minded - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $81 (certainly capable if makes the field)
Auckland
The most notable race was the JRA trophy, this race featured Shez Sinsational and a host of other runners who are likely to show up in feature races in the next few months.
Shez Sinational - 1400m is always going to be slightly shorter than ideal, handicap conditions suited some of her rivals, and the wet track (as we discovered in the Nathan's Memorial) was probably not going to suit. I am not sure we will quite see her at her best in the Windsor, and last year it took her a few starts to get that win. We probably saw the performance we needed to see from her, a battling run in unsuitable conditions, as soon as the races get closer to 2000m she will be a big danger.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate - $15, Spring Classic $5
Full of Spirit - looked very good when fresh up. She seems to handle all track conditions well, so should be solid over more distance for the rest of the spring. She is not currently nominated for anything in Australia (as far as I can see, but it looks like she will head that way), her only NZ nomination is the Couplands bakery mile in which you would expect her to be a go of chance.
Postmans Daughter - a favourite of mine, one who always seems to keep fighting. She looked positive again over the weekend, possibly faded relative to Full of Spirit over the last 50m but was strong against all others. She had the benefit of a great trip. Looks like another promising season ahead for her.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate $21 (look for place odds on the day), Spring Classic $14 (Value)
Atom Cat - A year ago he was in the WPP, this year he is not nominated for any of the big features yet, despite the fact the conditions may have assisted him, he finished off this race very strongly despite not getting much luck in the straight.
Carrick - Had to work hard to get into a position to make a run between the 600m and 400m marks, but not that much harder than Full of Spirit worked for her run. He finished off reasonably strongly but possibly faded over the final 150m. He has performed on a slow track in the past, he is possibly looking for more distance (although his two wins have been over 1200m and 1400m). He was only carrying 55kg, this is a bit of a concern heading into a WFA race where he would meet the likes of Postman's Daughter and Shez Sinsational relatively worse off.
Current odds - Windsor - $15 (hard to have), Spring Classic $10 (will have to improve, prefer Postmans Daughter at odds)
3YO's
Tough day to judge them, the track was not great. These conditions are often what we see in Canterbury in November, so it is probably worth taking notes.
Twilight Granita - I loved the run, how much extra ground did she cover? she was racing 4-5 wide at points around the bend. She just kept giving to get there and win. She has been consistent, seems to handle all conditions well, and a step in distance shouldn't hurt.She is nominated for the 1000 guineas, but odds are not yet released.
Kisses - Pretty strong fighting run for second. Not currently nominated, but seems to be the consistent type who is improving with each start.
Hollywood Angel - Horrible start, but she chased them down nicely and showed a strong finish into 6th, she most likely could have won without the bad luck. She is nominated for both Guineas and should be a threat.
Comical Lass - Kept closing into 4th. Seems to perform well on rain effected tracks (which is all she has seen so far).
Hazel - I expected better, she was not really seen. Definitely one to look at on a better track to see how she goes. Should improve 2nd up.
Liberating - Improved with racing before the second in the Matamata Breeders at age two. Looks like she will need a couple of starts this prep before she is at her best.
Ray's Girl - Seemed to keep finishing well after a poor start. Improved with racing last prep, may have been a bit too wet.
Snow Line - Used a bit of energy during the run, but I didn't see any justification for the pre-race price.
Warhorse - I am happy to forgive the favourite and suggest that he didn't handle the conditions when he faded late. He was 6th in the Wentwood Grange before winning a Group 3 last year, so I think we will see him improve into his next start.
Move Faster - I liked the late run of Swiper the Fox, but these two were basically side by side on the bend. Swiper the Fox unwound late, Move Faster accelerated consistently to win nicely. Move faster is yet to see a good track, but looks to be one to keep an eye on throughout the spring.
Batman - Didn't get the best trip, but ran home well living up to the trial form.
Swiper the Fox - Big finishing burst, had to work around the bend, will be stronger over more grounds. I think the conditions suited him.
Freedom - Worked hard to find a place to settle, but did find a handy position. Didn't show much at the finish, probably related to the conditions.
Hayleys Comet - Was far off them when he got a chance to run, but he did seem to come home pretty well, probably not the worst effort on display.
Australia - Sydney
Ming Dynasty
Magic Shaft - Didn't get a lot of luck, wide and probably over raced slightly before fading towards the end. Will need to improve to figure over 2000m. Probably hurt by 59kg in handicap conditions.
Current Odds - Spring Championship Stakes $31
Also Nominated - Caulfield Guineas
Overall I liked what I saw from all of the first 5 finishers, certainly the winner Tatra looked good and carried 58.5kg, and Honorius had a pretty strong finish into Third.
Current Odds
Spring Championship Stake
Tatra $9
Honorius $14
Proverb $14
Rowie $18
Sumarand $18
Golden Rose
Sumarand $41
Chelmsford Stakes
Danleigh was great in winning, and Secret admirer was a strong second. Lights of heaven didn't seem to do a lot, but will improve over more distance and in handicap conditions. Maules Creek showed a decent finish into 5th.
Current odds
Danleigh - Epsom $21 (Hard to have in a Handicap)
Secret Admirer - Epsom $11, Caulfield Cup $41, Cox Plate $21
Lights of Heaven - The Metropolitan $16, Caulfield Cup $31, Cox Plate $51, Melbourne Cup $51
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31, Caulfield Cup $101
Furious Stakes
Pussy Willow - Didn't seem like a great run, she was probably hurt by the pace and never really got into the race.
The first three (Dear Demi, Meidung, and Jade Marauder) all comfortably pulled away from the field, and looked good in their relative positions. Dear Demi won reasonably well, but all three impressed.
Current Odds
Pussy Willow - Nominated 1000 Guineas, will need to improve
Dear Demi - Golden Rose $26
Meidung - Golden Rose $26
Jade Marauder - - Golden Rose $26
Last at Sydney
Quintessenial - As good as a last can be (actually finished second last), certainly didn't get all the favours in the running and probably faded when he got blocked going for a run. I would forgive this run and look for value next start over more distance.
Epsom -$51
Caulfield Cup - $31
Melbourne Cup - $101
Australia - Melbourne
Lets Elope
Zurella - Awesome performance. She really had to fight hard for a run, and looked great when she got one. 55kg under handicap conditions, but as the races get harder she might not take too much of a penalty relative to the other runners she will face. Despite her second in the Oaks and strong Derby run, I felt that the 1400-1600m range was always her most suited distance. I expect she is probably heading to a Caulfield Cup, but she could also prove dangerous in a Myer Classic or Emirates Mile type race.
(Miss) Artistic - Not much between the Ritchie stablemates in the Oaks, but Artistic won, then had some success in Queensland and ended up carrying far more weight over the weekend. Still it was a pretty good performance. She will get better over more ground.
Hi Belle, kept on fighting into second. Lady Melksham fought well into fifth. Yosei unwound fairly late to beat Artistic and finish 6th.
Zurella - Caulfield Cup $31, Melbourne Cup $41
Artistic - Caulfield Cup $61 (good odds, she will improve), Melbourne Cup $101
Yosei - Caulfield Cup $151, Epsom $16, Cox Plate $101
Danehill Stakes
Snitzerland has an awesome name and was very impressive pulling away for victory after struggling for a run. Thought the first three were all pretty good and Swift Exit finished strongly for 5th at big odds.
Makybe Diva
The pace looked a little slow, but it was still an impressive win by Southern Speed to hold out the fast finishing Manighar. Lots of contenders here, the most notable Moudre running well and finishing third. December Draw was possibly a little unlucky, but ran on reasonably well. Efficient travelled wide and just didn't have a lot of finish. Moyuran picked up with pace over the last 100m. Dance With Her finished well late. Second Effort looked very good late coming from wide on the track (I think, I cant read my notes here).
The ones I would watch most closely are probably ones you already know to watch Manighar, Southern Speed, and I would like to see the improvement Second Effort takes from this.
Current Odds
December Draw- Caulfield Cup $26, Melbourne Cup $21, Cox Plate $26
Dance With Her - The Metropolitan $61, Caulfield Cup $101, Melbourne Cup $81
Efficient - The Metropolitan $21 (hard to recommend, will improve over more distance), Caulfield Cup $51, Melbourne Cup $41, Cox Plate $81
Manighar - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $14
Moudre - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $31, Cox Plate $51
Moyuran - The Metropolitan $26, Caulfield Cup $41, Melbourne Cup $51, Cox Plate $101
Southern Speed - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $21
Bobbie Lewis Quality
I think Anabandana is done, I was actually surprised to see her racing, I thought she had retired last year.
Mosheen will be better over more distance.
Sofitel Handicap
I thought the winner Excluded won very well and was pretty happy with what I saw from the first three (Exceptionally and Prizum).
Innocent Lady - was pretty average, she just faded on the bend.
The Jungle Boy - Had a very nice run, but didn't show much when it was time to really race.
Single Minded - Probably lasted 100m more than Innocent Lady. Will improve with more distance.
Current Odds
Excluded - The Metropolitan $18, Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $51
Exceptionally - Melbourne Cup $61
Single Minded - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $81 (certainly capable if makes the field)
Monday, 3 September 2012
What have we learned this Spring? (1st Edition)
It is springtime, you wouldn't know it if you looked out the window, but trust me it is. Spring racing is underway, and with big races ahead it is important to look back and reflect on what we saw on the weekend.
Ocean Park
Seems like the logical place to start. The best thing about the stunning performance on Saturday is that he probably had excuses as to why it was not his best performance, he should improve from this point as well. At Hastings on the weekend most winners were coming from the front part of the field and not a lot were making up ground from the back, while OP didn't drop back as far as he has in past runners from his handy draw, he made ground to win with a stunning turn of foot. He will be better over more distance, he will be better on good ground. It was a great ride from Lisa Allpress and he didn't get all the favours in the straight. He will improve.
Current Odds
Cox Plate $14; Caulfield Cup $16
Mufhasa
Not sure what to make from his performance, he came into a very strong favourite before the start. Khemosabi challenged him and he faded over the last 100m or so. I did notice that Sam Spratt dropped her whip at some point in the straight, it is hard to make out on the replay on the NZ Racing site. It is impossible to know if it made a difference, but I cannot imagine it helped. I am sure we are not done with Mufhasa in Group 1's and make sure to keep him safe over 1600m in the Windsor Park Plate.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5
Xanadu
Another eye catching finish and another who should improve with more distance and from that run. She is a big strong 4YO mare who almost certainly must have Australian aspirations. She was another who came from deep to perform against the way most runners were performing on the day. She has already had strong form over 1600m and it would not surprise to see her win over 2000m, she is very capable of winning the Winsor Park Plate and/or Spring Classic.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5; Spring Classic $5
Justanexcuse
So close to the upset on the weekend, a great ride and good tactics almost got him there. 1600m has been a tough distance for him since October last year, with most attempts against Group 1 level competition. It was a good performance, but it would be surprising to see him go two better in the Windsor.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $21
Guiseppina
Another encouraging performance. She came at them late to finish fifth. Her best results have all been between 1200-1400m but she is capable at 1600m. Are the connections looking at another trip to Australia this spring? A good performance in the Windsor may be needed if we are to consider her better than the 15th in last years Myer Classic.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $7
Time Keeper
Wins generally have come after 10 starts, he out performed his expectations but it would surprise for him to show up like that again in two weeks.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $41: Spring Classic $41
Green Supreme
Had a fairly sweet trip for a runner who was 3 wide, the cover from Baby Guinness was important. You are probably going to like him more over 1600m and even more over 2000m, so the fast finish was important, a good track may have seen him closer. There is a lot to like moving forward and he may even offer some value in the Windsor as Xanadu, Mufhasa, and Guiseppina attract attention.
Current Odds
Windsor $7; Spring Classic $5
Fleur de Lune
Probably didn't live up to expectations, but possibly didn't get the smooth trip you might have expected from that draw. It looked like she was blocked a couple of times in the straight just as she was trying to make her run, hard to know how much it hurt her performance, but it did get a mention in the Stewards report. I am not sure she is better suited to 1600m, but she is certainly capable.
Windsor $15; Classic $31
He's Remarkable
He has now had 3 straight performances to forget, but the last two have been on dead tracks, and Saturday's was upgraded from Slow not long before the race. 1600m is where he will be at his best, so he is worthy of another look. With a couple of trips to Aussie under his belt it would not be unexpected to see a return, but I cannot imagine the Cox Plate as a realistic location based off that performance.
Windsor $8; Classic $10; Cox Plate $101
3YO's
I certainly liked what I saw from Kate over 1200m in the first from the bay. It looks like she has improved from age 2 and won a tough race. Dorian Grey came home well into second which was worth noting, It will be interesting to see these two again. In Tauranga Kate's stablemate Perfect Start made a perfect start to her racing career winning while making up a lot of ground on the straight.
Civics Rock/Villify
Also at Tauranga Civics Rock was very impressive finishing off strongly to dominate a small field with some talent. Villify will need to take a lot of improvement from that run to feature in the Windsor, 1600m is certainly more suitable and he did finish reasonably strongly, still $13 seems a little short.
Windsor $13 (Villify)
Back In Black
A strong win over 1600m, he seems to go well in Hastings at this time of year, 2000m should suit, but he was fairly inconsistent last year. Still at $41 in the Spring classic he is certainly not the worst on offer, I imagine he will have a run on the Second day, so he is one to watch.
Spring Classic $41
No Excuse Maggie/Smoulder/Platinum Passion/Intransigent
Not a whole lot to write home about from this Group 1 nominated bunch. Intransigent had to do too much work. No Excuse Maggie seemed a bit keen, but got a good trip. Platinum Passion had a sweet trip and ran on a bit. Smoulder ran home well. We probably wanted to see a bit more from this bunch of runners if they are going to go on to have Group 1 success. The eye-catching performance was from Amberio who has been quietly successful over the past 12 months plus, she is one to look out for next start.
Current Odds
Windsor
No Excuse Maggie $41
Smoulder $61
Spring Classic
Intransigent $101
Platinum Passion $101
Two more winners who were very good on the day were Papilo and The Knight. No idea where they may be heading, but it is worth having a look when you see them.
Quick Aussie Notes
How long will Pierro remain undefeated and how many Group 1's will he win in Melbourne this Spring? last seasons star 2YO continued his winning streak on route to the Caulfield Guineas and possibly the Cox Plate. He was challenged by Your Song who was impressive, and also beat All Too Hard who missed 3rd by a head bob and finished 5th. All Too Hard and Pierro no longer have a rivalry, Pierro is established as clearly superior.
Current Odds
Golden Rose
All Too Hard $7.50
Your Song $9 (might be unlikely to start I think I heard on Saturday, so do your research)
Epaulette $9
Ninth Legion $16
Cox Plate
All Too Hard $51
Pierro $6
Glencadam Gold won over 1800m against a range of cups possibles, but hard to read too much into it this far out. If you liked it there are still very good odds available for both big cups.
In Melbourne Sincero won the Memsie Stakes. I always look at this as the first race to consider as runners build to the big three. Sincero was very strong in Sydney last spring before heading to Melbourne and probably been a bit outclassed, this looks like a sign of improvement. This was a pretty Strong field which included Green Moon (2nd 2011 Caulfield Cup), Wall Street, Maluckyday (2010 2nd Melbourne Cup, Lexus winner), Heart of Dreams (Group 1 winner, second in Memsie last year), Rekindled Interest (3rd Mackinnon and Cox Plate last year), Niwot (Lexus winner 2011, Sydney Cup winner 2012), Sanagas (nothing to see here just yet), and Midas Touch (3rd Underwood, 3rd Makybe Diva last year). There is a lot to consider from that race.
Current Odds
Sincero - Cox Plate $16, Caulfield Cup $41
Green Moon - Cox Plate $21, Caulfield Cup $14, Melbourne Cup (pre noms) $18
Wall Street - Cox Plate $101, CC $81
Maluckyday - Cox Plate $81, CC $31, MC $26
Heart of Dreams - CP $101
Rekindled Interest - CP $12
Niwot - CP $151, CC $41, MC $41
Sanagas - CP $101, CC $51, MC $51
Midas Touch - CP $201, CC $61, MC $81
Probably not a lot to worry about just yet, but good to monitor.
Ocean Park
Seems like the logical place to start. The best thing about the stunning performance on Saturday is that he probably had excuses as to why it was not his best performance, he should improve from this point as well. At Hastings on the weekend most winners were coming from the front part of the field and not a lot were making up ground from the back, while OP didn't drop back as far as he has in past runners from his handy draw, he made ground to win with a stunning turn of foot. He will be better over more distance, he will be better on good ground. It was a great ride from Lisa Allpress and he didn't get all the favours in the straight. He will improve.
Current Odds
Cox Plate $14; Caulfield Cup $16
Mufhasa
Not sure what to make from his performance, he came into a very strong favourite before the start. Khemosabi challenged him and he faded over the last 100m or so. I did notice that Sam Spratt dropped her whip at some point in the straight, it is hard to make out on the replay on the NZ Racing site. It is impossible to know if it made a difference, but I cannot imagine it helped. I am sure we are not done with Mufhasa in Group 1's and make sure to keep him safe over 1600m in the Windsor Park Plate.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5
Xanadu
Another eye catching finish and another who should improve with more distance and from that run. She is a big strong 4YO mare who almost certainly must have Australian aspirations. She was another who came from deep to perform against the way most runners were performing on the day. She has already had strong form over 1600m and it would not surprise to see her win over 2000m, she is very capable of winning the Winsor Park Plate and/or Spring Classic.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5; Spring Classic $5
Justanexcuse
So close to the upset on the weekend, a great ride and good tactics almost got him there. 1600m has been a tough distance for him since October last year, with most attempts against Group 1 level competition. It was a good performance, but it would be surprising to see him go two better in the Windsor.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $21
Guiseppina
Another encouraging performance. She came at them late to finish fifth. Her best results have all been between 1200-1400m but she is capable at 1600m. Are the connections looking at another trip to Australia this spring? A good performance in the Windsor may be needed if we are to consider her better than the 15th in last years Myer Classic.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $7
Time Keeper
Wins generally have come after 10 starts, he out performed his expectations but it would surprise for him to show up like that again in two weeks.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $41: Spring Classic $41
Green Supreme
Had a fairly sweet trip for a runner who was 3 wide, the cover from Baby Guinness was important. You are probably going to like him more over 1600m and even more over 2000m, so the fast finish was important, a good track may have seen him closer. There is a lot to like moving forward and he may even offer some value in the Windsor as Xanadu, Mufhasa, and Guiseppina attract attention.
Current Odds
Windsor $7; Spring Classic $5
Fleur de Lune
Probably didn't live up to expectations, but possibly didn't get the smooth trip you might have expected from that draw. It looked like she was blocked a couple of times in the straight just as she was trying to make her run, hard to know how much it hurt her performance, but it did get a mention in the Stewards report. I am not sure she is better suited to 1600m, but she is certainly capable.
Windsor $15; Classic $31
He's Remarkable
He has now had 3 straight performances to forget, but the last two have been on dead tracks, and Saturday's was upgraded from Slow not long before the race. 1600m is where he will be at his best, so he is worthy of another look. With a couple of trips to Aussie under his belt it would not be unexpected to see a return, but I cannot imagine the Cox Plate as a realistic location based off that performance.
Windsor $8; Classic $10; Cox Plate $101
3YO's
I certainly liked what I saw from Kate over 1200m in the first from the bay. It looks like she has improved from age 2 and won a tough race. Dorian Grey came home well into second which was worth noting, It will be interesting to see these two again. In Tauranga Kate's stablemate Perfect Start made a perfect start to her racing career winning while making up a lot of ground on the straight.
Civics Rock/Villify
Also at Tauranga Civics Rock was very impressive finishing off strongly to dominate a small field with some talent. Villify will need to take a lot of improvement from that run to feature in the Windsor, 1600m is certainly more suitable and he did finish reasonably strongly, still $13 seems a little short.
Windsor $13 (Villify)
Back In Black
A strong win over 1600m, he seems to go well in Hastings at this time of year, 2000m should suit, but he was fairly inconsistent last year. Still at $41 in the Spring classic he is certainly not the worst on offer, I imagine he will have a run on the Second day, so he is one to watch.
Spring Classic $41
No Excuse Maggie/Smoulder/Platinum Passion/Intransigent
Not a whole lot to write home about from this Group 1 nominated bunch. Intransigent had to do too much work. No Excuse Maggie seemed a bit keen, but got a good trip. Platinum Passion had a sweet trip and ran on a bit. Smoulder ran home well. We probably wanted to see a bit more from this bunch of runners if they are going to go on to have Group 1 success. The eye-catching performance was from Amberio who has been quietly successful over the past 12 months plus, she is one to look out for next start.
Current Odds
Windsor
No Excuse Maggie $41
Smoulder $61
Spring Classic
Intransigent $101
Platinum Passion $101
Two more winners who were very good on the day were Papilo and The Knight. No idea where they may be heading, but it is worth having a look when you see them.
Quick Aussie Notes
How long will Pierro remain undefeated and how many Group 1's will he win in Melbourne this Spring? last seasons star 2YO continued his winning streak on route to the Caulfield Guineas and possibly the Cox Plate. He was challenged by Your Song who was impressive, and also beat All Too Hard who missed 3rd by a head bob and finished 5th. All Too Hard and Pierro no longer have a rivalry, Pierro is established as clearly superior.
Current Odds
Golden Rose
All Too Hard $7.50
Your Song $9 (might be unlikely to start I think I heard on Saturday, so do your research)
Epaulette $9
Ninth Legion $16
Cox Plate
All Too Hard $51
Pierro $6
Glencadam Gold won over 1800m against a range of cups possibles, but hard to read too much into it this far out. If you liked it there are still very good odds available for both big cups.
In Melbourne Sincero won the Memsie Stakes. I always look at this as the first race to consider as runners build to the big three. Sincero was very strong in Sydney last spring before heading to Melbourne and probably been a bit outclassed, this looks like a sign of improvement. This was a pretty Strong field which included Green Moon (2nd 2011 Caulfield Cup), Wall Street, Maluckyday (2010 2nd Melbourne Cup, Lexus winner), Heart of Dreams (Group 1 winner, second in Memsie last year), Rekindled Interest (3rd Mackinnon and Cox Plate last year), Niwot (Lexus winner 2011, Sydney Cup winner 2012), Sanagas (nothing to see here just yet), and Midas Touch (3rd Underwood, 3rd Makybe Diva last year). There is a lot to consider from that race.
Current Odds
Sincero - Cox Plate $16, Caulfield Cup $41
Green Moon - Cox Plate $21, Caulfield Cup $14, Melbourne Cup (pre noms) $18
Wall Street - Cox Plate $101, CC $81
Maluckyday - Cox Plate $81, CC $31, MC $26
Heart of Dreams - CP $101
Rekindled Interest - CP $12
Niwot - CP $151, CC $41, MC $41
Sanagas - CP $101, CC $51, MC $51
Midas Touch - CP $201, CC $61, MC $81
Probably not a lot to worry about just yet, but good to monitor.
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