Amongst the hype of Derby Day you may have missed it, but Titch won his second consecutive Auckland Cup. Preview over. Thanks for reading.
Of course the Auckland Cup is not actually run until later on this afternoon, but Titch ran second in the Nathan's Memorial, a race which has recently been an excellent indicator of Auckland Cup success. It was a close finish, but lucky for him he didn't win, otherwise we would be talking about the Jungle Boy right now.
If all of this sounds familiar that is because it is, Titch ran second in this race last year behind Solid Billing (that was another very tight finish on a rain effected track) who went on to run 10th in the Auckland Cup. Forget about Minquar Quaim from two years ago. Three Years ago Spin Around was chased down by Capecover in the Nathan's memorial, he turned the tide the following Wednesday finishing 8 places ahead of Capecover and winning the Cup. Unfortunately, Prize Lady decided to ruin things by not running in the Nathan's Memorial in either 2008 or 2007, running 3rd and 4th in the Auckland Cup prelude (which would now have been the Avondale Cup), she also ran 3rd in that race in 2009.
Where does this leave us in regard to this years Auckland Cup? I really don't know.
A 3200m Open Handicap is a very strange thing. They are so few and far between that many starters will not have run over this distance or run over it very few times. Often prior to running 3200m horses have been racing over 2400m or shorter, that is 800m shorter, so success does not always correlate. It is always interesting to see horses who are 'out of form' when talking about shorter distances stepping up with that further 800m and turning into contenders.
Today I wanted to break down the positives and negatives for the runners and look at who can contend.
#1 Six O'Clock News, Barrier 6, 59kg
The Positives
Is back in form recently and actually winning taking out the Wellington Cup (2400m). He has run 5th and 7th in this race in the past when he has been in similar form. Barrier 6 should see him reasonably well placed in the running to avoid any extra distance. The track should be good for him too.
My Concerns
Carrying 59kg effectively rules him out for me. He carried 56kg to win the Wellington Cup, and 59kg when last (at WFA) in Hamilton next start.
#2 Booming, Barrier 20, 58kg
The Positives
He seems to get better with a bit more distance, he looked to improve stepping up from 2000m to 2400m and has placed in his only 3200m start. Auckland also seems to be a track which will see him show an above average performance. Eye catching in the Avondale Cup, was really running on well and drops a kg from that start.
My Concerns
Although solid this campaign, he has not really found the same form from a year ago. He has been close but until the Avondale Cup has not shown his best. He is facing a big field and will be coming from an outside barrier, he would normally look to come from towards to the back, but over 3200m the possibility of racing wide is very real.
#3 Titch, Barrier 12, 57.5kg
The Positives
Clearly a horse capable of winning over 3200m. Ran home well over the finial stages for second in the Nathan's Memorial.Was able to carry the 57.5kg on the weekend when second, and has carried more recently.
My Concerns
Carrying 3kg more than he carries a year ago in this race for victory. Although he is a Group 1 winner, his previous two wins have been for 15k and 20k and at courses abbreviated TAUH and WROA. I googled these to discover they are Wairoa and Tauherenikau, again I turned to Google to discover Wairoa is in the northern Hawkes Bay and Tauherenikau is in Martinborough, which is in the Wairarapa. Whilst I will apologise for my geographical ignorance, it is evident he has not been facing the toughest of competition since his Auckland Cup victory.
#4 Spiro, Barrier 3, 57.5kg
The Positives
Has looked in good form with strong performances carrying more weight in the Wellington and Taranaki Cups. He definitely gets better with racing, this is his 9th start up this time which should see him at peak performance. He stepped back from 2400m in the Wellington Cup to 1800m, and it looked like a few more meters might have been helpful. He showed good fight in Wellington when Six O'Clock News was too good, 3200m will be a first.
My Concerns
He is not only venturing to Ellerslie for the first time, he will be having his first start right handed. Is this a question mark we should be thinking about? It is also his first 3200m start, although he has shown it is likely to not be too big of a concern.
#5 Shez Sensational, Barrier 19, 55kg
The Positives
She will carry only 55kg on a decent surface. She is a dual Group 1 winner this year already and has shown her ability to stay in Queensland last winter.
My Concerns
He run on the weekend, but they have really been addressed by James McDonald after that race. The distance is still a concern, and the wide draw could always lead to an difficult position, but it might be less critical with 3200m to run, particularity given James McDonald's ability to read a race a break from the norm as required, like we saw on Silent Achiever on Saturday.
#6 Single Minded, Barrier 11, 54kg
The Positives
Won the Avondale Cup in strong fashion. Has been very consistent of late rising through the grades as a stayer. He has performed well at Ellerslie and will actually carry less weight here than in either of his last two victories.
My Concerns
He possibly still lacks experience and is still getting used to running against this level of competition. 3200m is an unknown, and this is tougher than either of his last wins in Auckland.
#7 The Jungle Boy, Barrier 17, 54kg
The Positives
Finally broke his duck at Ellerslie with a win in his 11th start, is this the start of a streak? or will there be another gap between victories? He showed a good finish on the weekend and will again reduce his weight by 1.5kg. Placed over 3200m.
My Concerns
His overall record at Ellerslie is no good, although as I have written before there is not really a logical reason for that. He does like a wet surface, he will be unlikely to see that later today.
#8 Blood Brotha, Barrier 8, 54kg
The Positives
New Zealand Cup winner who is only carrying .5kg more from that race. Gets better over more ground. Good third in the Avondale Cup which looked to signal a bit of a return to form. This will be the first time with the same jockey back to back since February 2011. He might be getting back to best form at the right time.
My Concerns
Last two victories have come on Heavy tracks including the New Zealand Cup victory.
#9 Back in Black, Barrier 1, 54kg
The Positives
Last start was his best run since the spring. Will be able to race to his strength and stay handy from the inside barrier.The Jungle Boy broke a long Ellerslie drought on Saturday, maybe he will follow suit. 54kg is a lot lighter than recent runs, may be some merit.
My Concerns
Horrible Ellerslie record, no wins from 16 attempts (like the Jungle Boy it is surprising considering he has an otherwise strong right handed record). Tends to win early, is now 15th up. The biggest race he has won was worth $40k. Yet to win, or place, over 2000m.
#10 Castle Heights, Barrier 21, 54kg
The Positives
Placed in this race a year ago. Was pretty good up until the Avondale Cup. He should be able to show a strongish finish in this race. Down to 54kg which is still 2kg more than a year ago, but much lighter than recent starts.
My Concerns
Has not actually won since 2009. Would have expected a better Avondale Cup run as was looking in better form before that. He is drawn one of the widest,
#11 Loose Change, Barrier 23, 53.5kg
The Positives
Very experienced at 2400m, finishing off races well most of the time recently. Will get a good track which is what he needs. He looks to improve with a bit more racing, so should be ready to put forward a good effort.
My Concerns
Possibly looks a bit outclassed in this field. Limited experience at Ellerslie or on right handed tracks. 53.5kg is light, but has not really been carrying that much more when losing in pretty strong races. Drawn way outside.
#12 Aussieaussieaussie, Barrier 4, 52.5kg
The Positives
Had his best result in the North Island recently, he does tend to get better with a bit of racing, so he could go well in this type of race.
My Concerns
Has never won outside of the South Island. He tends to get better on a wetter surface. He has never won over more than 1800m. Given a lack of strong 2400m performances you have to be concerned about the 3200m trip.
#13 Yours, Barrier 22, 52.5kg
The Positives
Close up to Titch two starts back while carrying 59kgs. Has now had two starts over the distance, with a good performance for 4th in the New Zealand Cup.
My Concerns
Was second last in the Avondale Cup, that was a tough race, but this is tougher, was running on, but will only carry 1kg less.
#14 Options, Barrier 7, 52kg
The Positives
Genuine lightweight chance, in form and has looked good winning on the course. Always a lightweight runner who shows up strong for a race like this. Was very impressive over 2000m winning easily at Matamata. Adjusting well to racing in the North Island.
My Concerns
Longest win/race has only been 2100m, this is a lot further. New to the open handicap level, has been improving but Group 1 level should represent a step up.
#15 Innocent Lady, Barrier 24, 52kg
The Positives
Lightweight chance who has previously looked decent running over 3200m. Was not in great form prior to 4th in this race last year.She is definitely one of those runners when I see the distance I get a bit more interested, and when I see that weight I sort of think "Really! only 52 kilos?"
My Concerns
Far from best form, has had a very bad year to date. Badly drawn. Despite my first reaction I watched the Avondale Cup, I don't think she really can figure here.
#16 Peace Lilly, Barrier 7, 52kg
The Positives
A runner who seems to be getting better at running at open handicap level, the think I like is that while this is a step up from Rating 85, she was at the top of that grade and carrying high weights, the drop to 52kg is very tempting. Has done well at racing and 5 of her 6 wins have been right handed.
My Concerns
She has possibly performed best recently on tracks which are more rain effected, but has a consistent overall record on all tracks. This still seems like a step up in class from the races she has been winning.
#17 Jaffa Jack, Barrier 10, 52kg
The Positives
Jaffa Jack has performed well over more distance, probably 3200m will suit given the strength he has shown over distance on wet tracks.
My Concerns
It is going to be a bit too dry for this stayer to feature. A seven year old with 22 career starts, who has only recently been running at open level, even with the lightweight this is a step up.
#18 Top Spot, Barrier 11, 52kg
The Positives
Has performed well carrying similar weights in races over 2400m. He has performed well at Ellerslie recently, particularly the 3rd in the City of Auckland Cup carrying more weight.
My Concerns
Ideally you would probably want a slightly wetter track to see his best. Last win was first up over 1400m at rating 85 level, this is a lot tougher.
The Picks
Value Win - Options ($12) - Pretty good for a chance to win at that light weight.
Value Place - Top Spot ($9) - I could actually see it winning, but it is a bit tough, it is definitely a place chance and $9 is pretty good value for the place.
Longest shot I can see coming - Top Spot ($31) - If things go right I could see it.
First - Single Minded - ($6.50) - Was so impressive in the Avondale Cup, I can see him going on here and stepping up over 3200m.
Second - Shez Sensational - ($1.40p) - Simply too classy not to be in the picture.
Third - Options - ($4p) - A leightweight should figure here.
Fourth - Spiro - ($5.20p) - I think think he will figure in this race, I think 3200m is looking light the right distance and I can see him winning this.
There are so many chances, I really find it hard to completely rule out anyone under the $21 mark. I think Shez Sensational is clearly the most talented, but there is definitely some concerns from the weekend run.
Showing posts with label Open Handicap. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Open Handicap. Show all posts
Wednesday, 7 March 2012
Monday, 27 February 2012
20 Things to look forward to during Auckland Cup Week
Auckland Cup Week is nearly upon us, it will be an excellent week to celebration New Zealand Racing, although I will no doubt look more closely at some of the feature races as we get closer to the main event, here are a list of things you can look forward to during Auckland Cup Week at Ellerslie.
1. Infield Partying
There are really only a couple of race days a year where the track is packed to the point the infield is used, Saturday the 3rd of March (TV3 Derby Day) will be one of them. I recall last year cramming under a makeshift shelter in the infield with about a dozen friends only coming out to brave the conditions to restock alcohol, place bets and watch races, but it was great fun, very memorable. I eventually made a run to the grandstand to watch Jimmy Choux do his thing, but the party atmosphere in the infield is always a great time. Boxing Day 2011 had one of the biggest crowds I can remember seeing at Ellerslie, the infield was packed and people were having a great time. Ellerslie does a great job of putting on peripheral entertainment, this year featuring Kimbra, I have no idea who that is, but they sure seem to be pushing it.
2. James McDonald
Last year Opie Bosson had an amazing Auckland Cup Carnival, he rode Titch, The Party Stand, and Anabandana to victories in the Auckland Cup, New Zealand Stakes, and the Diamond Stakes taking out three of the four Group 1 races during Auckland Cup week. That seemed an amazing feat, well this year James McDonald has a chance to replicate that feat as pointed out in the Waikato Times. Can he do it will be a sub-story of Cup week, Silent Achiever is currently Derby favorite, Shez Sensational is looking very good for the Cup. The article talks about Scarlett Lady, and if that is favoured in the New Zealand Stakes, however it looks like it has been withdrawn from nominations (at least they are not listed in on the NZRacing Website), if that is the case you might assume she will be in Australia. The question remains, who will he ride in the remaining Group 1, he rode Choice Bro before Matthew Cameron rode him to victory in Taranaki, he rode Silk Pins in its last start before the Karaka Million, he has ridden Deakes and Toaist Master who are potential nominees. I have no idea who is likely to be in this race, or who he is likely to ride, however looking at some of the potential names you have to figure he is a good chance in that Group 1. Assuming Shez Sensational opts for the Cup and Scarlett Lady is not in the NZ Stakes, James McDonald will no doubt get a ride in this race, however looking at recent 2000m WFA races it is harder to see a likely favourite he might ride, so this may be the one which gets away, either way a possible Mcdonald-Sweep is something to look out for during Cup week.
3. The Nathan's Memorial
As discussed last week two of the last three Auckland Cup winners have come second in this race on Derby Day. This seemingly typical 2200m event will likely feature horses racing as a lead up for the cup against others who simply see it as a good value Open Handicap event.
4. New Zealand's Top Horses
Take away the 4 Group 1's and the handful of other races at listed level and above, the fields are stacked throughout the week, even the midweek meeting. Last year Veyron won a 1200m rating 90, he is now a three time Group 1 winner. High stakes are on offer all week which brings in the top horses from around the country.
5. The Telecom New Zealand Derby on TV3 Derby Day
A major feature of Auckland Cup week, and this year promises a number of contenders who all have their merits. Silent Achiever is the favourite, but there is a lot to like about Ocean Park, Zurella and Rock'n'Pop who I can see potentially taking it out. Shuka you would think would need some luck, and Travolta and Carick looked good in the Avondale Guineas. Don't sleep on any of the longer shots they have tended to feature in recent years, it is the Derby, anything can happen.
6. Something for everyone
Looking back at last year, over the 30 races there were essentially an even number from 1200m, 1400m, 1600m, and 21/2200m, as well as races over 1100m, 2000m, 2400m and 3200m. Again an even number of the maiden's, Rating 70, 80, 90 and Open level races, four races for 3YO's a couple for 2YO's and Fillies and Mares. Whatever you are into there is something for you, it also gives trainers and connections opportunity to find the right race for their horse to compete which should increase the racing excitement.
7. Sunline Vase You don't want to sleep on this potentially explosive event. It is a listed race for the 3YO Fillies over 2100m, but there should be some real talent on display. Look back at the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic a couple of weeks ago, some of those contenders will be on display in the derby, but it is evident that we have a talented group of 3YO fillies, many of these will be taking on this event before the Oaks in a couple of weeks, this is a race to keep an eye on.
8. A major Citywide event
There is certainly a buzz around Auckland leading up to derby day. Not a crazy buzz, this is not an All Black's game, but people are definitely aware it is on, there will be a significant turn out all three days. Auckland Racing Club does a good job promoting this event and making people aware of how fun a day at the races can be.
9. TV3's new Sponsorship
Telecom is a great Derby Sponsor, TV3 certainly has great potential to bring additional life to the event. I can imagine their sponsorship should see more coverage of races outside of the Trackside channels. I thought Sky TV did a great job on Karaka Million night, and although I will be at Ellerslie on Derby Day it will be interesting to see what TV3 can do showing off the sights and sounds.
10. A 3200m Group 1
A very unique event, yes it is annual, but still not a lot of these major staying tests in the country, this year's field is starting to look like it is a very solid one. The Stella Artois Auckland Cup is a race which dates back until 1874 (at least if Wikipedia is to be believed). It is really the great unknown, many of the runners who accept wont have started a race over 2400m, it will a great test of stamina, a big field will line up which will make it s tactical challenge, and a stunning sight for the spectators, there will be questions on every runner as they enter the parade ring, there will be no certainties. Look at the Current favourites, Shez Sensational, Booming, Single Minded, Titch and Six O'Clock News, some questions include distance, weight, distance, form, and consistency amongst others. The winner will see it as an opportunity to look at other Cup races in the future as well as adding a/another Group 1 to their resume.
11. An office sweepstake opportunity
Do you really need an excuse? if it is good for the Melbourne Cup why not the Auckland Cup, it is on in a lot of pubs, get the team together, set up a sweep, drink beers, have fun, it is a simple recipe.If you are the person in your office who is into racing, take charge, set it up.
12. Diamond Day Whip'n'Spurs
If you have not yet experienced a Whips'n'Spurs party you should make this the one. They are a great event, relatively cheap, filled with people all dressed up, you get a great view of the track, and can party all night. You can get your tickets here.
13. Fashion and Stuff
It is not what brings me to the races, but it does tend to attract a lot of Women, and that is never a bad thing. Whenever I can get a good group together to attend these major race days I get to witness how much time an energy females put into wardrobe, hair, makeup, accessories. They go crazy for this stuff and despite the frustration which accompanies making five outfit changes in a morning before the races they clearly enjoy it. I am not in a position to mock, I spend multiple hours studying form in the week leading up to the races and typically get less out of it. The best bit, have you see a woman try to walk in high heels after three bottles of bubbly in 25+ degree temperatures, it is fun for the whole family.
14. New Zealand Stakes
What do you expect? Shez Sensational has won two Group 1 WFA races over 2000m this season, but take her out of it and this will be a wide open race. Look at the results we have seen this year in the Windsor Park Plate, the Spring Classic, the Captian Cook Stakes, the Zabeel Classic, the Darci Brahma International, and most recently the Otaki Group 1. We wont see Mufhasa, we most likely wont see Shez Sensational or Jimmy Choux, but you can see the quality these races are attracting and the mixed variety of results behind the winners. Veyron's plans are not certain, but given how well he went over 2000m on Boxing day, his love of Auckland and the form he is in, it could be an interesting race.
15. Changing the colours of the Jockey statue
Will we be seeing Titch's colours adorn the Jockey statue for another year? It is a quirky but awesome tradition at Ellerslie (and many other tracks), the winner of the Auckland Cup will have their colours painted on the statue in the back parade ring for the next year.
16. It is happening all over town
I don't want to get to carried away talking about the other codes, but Auckland Cup is not all about the Thoroughbred's. It is happening at Alexandra Park too, they actually kick it off this Friday night with their Oaks followed by their Derby/Cup night the following week, the details are here. If you are into the dag's (you like dag's?), they have their cup too, next Thursday night, details here.
17. Diamond Stakes
The first Group 1 for the Two Year Olds this season. It is shaping up like an outstanding one. The Two year olds have been going at each other this year, contenders are stepping up and then getting knocked down, it is fascinating stuff. I have no idea what to expect from this year group, it is not like there is a dominant Anabandana this year.
18. Enjoy a day in a beautiful park
Ellerslie is stunning, I was out there the other week for the Avondale Guineas day and the course and grounds are looking in excellent condition. You can essentially boil the day down to a picnic in the park, only with 20,000 other people. Even without the added entertainment, it is almost worth the price of admission just to enjoy the surroundings.
19. Midweek Racing of consequence
Having significant racing during the middle of the week is great. The Cup is at the perfect time to knock off work and head down to the pub, or if you are in the Auckland area just take the day off, a lot of other people will be. Better yet, arrange a 'team building' exercise and get paid to go to the races.
20. Leading international Jockeys
Craig Williams recently won the Karaka Million on Ockham's Razor, it is just another example of the success that international Jockey's have had when they venture to our shores. Cup week last year we saw wins from Jim Byrne, Douglas Whyte, Shane Scriven, other internationals Glenn Boss and Craig Williams riding here not to mention other Jockeys who were based in New Zealand who won that week like Mark Du Plessis, Jason Collett, Opie Bosson who are either overseas now or were at some point in the past 12 months riding. The prize money is not quite what is was last year, but there is still potential to see some internationals making the trip to New Zealand.
1. Infield Partying
There are really only a couple of race days a year where the track is packed to the point the infield is used, Saturday the 3rd of March (TV3 Derby Day) will be one of them. I recall last year cramming under a makeshift shelter in the infield with about a dozen friends only coming out to brave the conditions to restock alcohol, place bets and watch races, but it was great fun, very memorable. I eventually made a run to the grandstand to watch Jimmy Choux do his thing, but the party atmosphere in the infield is always a great time. Boxing Day 2011 had one of the biggest crowds I can remember seeing at Ellerslie, the infield was packed and people were having a great time. Ellerslie does a great job of putting on peripheral entertainment, this year featuring Kimbra, I have no idea who that is, but they sure seem to be pushing it.
2. James McDonald
Last year Opie Bosson had an amazing Auckland Cup Carnival, he rode Titch, The Party Stand, and Anabandana to victories in the Auckland Cup, New Zealand Stakes, and the Diamond Stakes taking out three of the four Group 1 races during Auckland Cup week. That seemed an amazing feat, well this year James McDonald has a chance to replicate that feat as pointed out in the Waikato Times. Can he do it will be a sub-story of Cup week, Silent Achiever is currently Derby favorite, Shez Sensational is looking very good for the Cup. The article talks about Scarlett Lady, and if that is favoured in the New Zealand Stakes, however it looks like it has been withdrawn from nominations (at least they are not listed in on the NZRacing Website), if that is the case you might assume she will be in Australia. The question remains, who will he ride in the remaining Group 1, he rode Choice Bro before Matthew Cameron rode him to victory in Taranaki, he rode Silk Pins in its last start before the Karaka Million, he has ridden Deakes and Toaist Master who are potential nominees. I have no idea who is likely to be in this race, or who he is likely to ride, however looking at some of the potential names you have to figure he is a good chance in that Group 1. Assuming Shez Sensational opts for the Cup and Scarlett Lady is not in the NZ Stakes, James McDonald will no doubt get a ride in this race, however looking at recent 2000m WFA races it is harder to see a likely favourite he might ride, so this may be the one which gets away, either way a possible Mcdonald-Sweep is something to look out for during Cup week.
3. The Nathan's Memorial
As discussed last week two of the last three Auckland Cup winners have come second in this race on Derby Day. This seemingly typical 2200m event will likely feature horses racing as a lead up for the cup against others who simply see it as a good value Open Handicap event.
4. New Zealand's Top Horses
Take away the 4 Group 1's and the handful of other races at listed level and above, the fields are stacked throughout the week, even the midweek meeting. Last year Veyron won a 1200m rating 90, he is now a three time Group 1 winner. High stakes are on offer all week which brings in the top horses from around the country.
5. The Telecom New Zealand Derby on TV3 Derby Day
A major feature of Auckland Cup week, and this year promises a number of contenders who all have their merits. Silent Achiever is the favourite, but there is a lot to like about Ocean Park, Zurella and Rock'n'Pop who I can see potentially taking it out. Shuka you would think would need some luck, and Travolta and Carick looked good in the Avondale Guineas. Don't sleep on any of the longer shots they have tended to feature in recent years, it is the Derby, anything can happen.
6. Something for everyone
Looking back at last year, over the 30 races there were essentially an even number from 1200m, 1400m, 1600m, and 21/2200m, as well as races over 1100m, 2000m, 2400m and 3200m. Again an even number of the maiden's, Rating 70, 80, 90 and Open level races, four races for 3YO's a couple for 2YO's and Fillies and Mares. Whatever you are into there is something for you, it also gives trainers and connections opportunity to find the right race for their horse to compete which should increase the racing excitement.
7. Sunline Vase You don't want to sleep on this potentially explosive event. It is a listed race for the 3YO Fillies over 2100m, but there should be some real talent on display. Look back at the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic a couple of weeks ago, some of those contenders will be on display in the derby, but it is evident that we have a talented group of 3YO fillies, many of these will be taking on this event before the Oaks in a couple of weeks, this is a race to keep an eye on.
8. A major Citywide event
There is certainly a buzz around Auckland leading up to derby day. Not a crazy buzz, this is not an All Black's game, but people are definitely aware it is on, there will be a significant turn out all three days. Auckland Racing Club does a good job promoting this event and making people aware of how fun a day at the races can be.
9. TV3's new Sponsorship
Telecom is a great Derby Sponsor, TV3 certainly has great potential to bring additional life to the event. I can imagine their sponsorship should see more coverage of races outside of the Trackside channels. I thought Sky TV did a great job on Karaka Million night, and although I will be at Ellerslie on Derby Day it will be interesting to see what TV3 can do showing off the sights and sounds.
10. A 3200m Group 1
A very unique event, yes it is annual, but still not a lot of these major staying tests in the country, this year's field is starting to look like it is a very solid one. The Stella Artois Auckland Cup is a race which dates back until 1874 (at least if Wikipedia is to be believed). It is really the great unknown, many of the runners who accept wont have started a race over 2400m, it will a great test of stamina, a big field will line up which will make it s tactical challenge, and a stunning sight for the spectators, there will be questions on every runner as they enter the parade ring, there will be no certainties. Look at the Current favourites, Shez Sensational, Booming, Single Minded, Titch and Six O'Clock News, some questions include distance, weight, distance, form, and consistency amongst others. The winner will see it as an opportunity to look at other Cup races in the future as well as adding a/another Group 1 to their resume.
11. An office sweepstake opportunity
Do you really need an excuse? if it is good for the Melbourne Cup why not the Auckland Cup, it is on in a lot of pubs, get the team together, set up a sweep, drink beers, have fun, it is a simple recipe.If you are the person in your office who is into racing, take charge, set it up.
12. Diamond Day Whip'n'Spurs
If you have not yet experienced a Whips'n'Spurs party you should make this the one. They are a great event, relatively cheap, filled with people all dressed up, you get a great view of the track, and can party all night. You can get your tickets here.
13. Fashion and Stuff
It is not what brings me to the races, but it does tend to attract a lot of Women, and that is never a bad thing. Whenever I can get a good group together to attend these major race days I get to witness how much time an energy females put into wardrobe, hair, makeup, accessories. They go crazy for this stuff and despite the frustration which accompanies making five outfit changes in a morning before the races they clearly enjoy it. I am not in a position to mock, I spend multiple hours studying form in the week leading up to the races and typically get less out of it. The best bit, have you see a woman try to walk in high heels after three bottles of bubbly in 25+ degree temperatures, it is fun for the whole family.
14. New Zealand Stakes
What do you expect? Shez Sensational has won two Group 1 WFA races over 2000m this season, but take her out of it and this will be a wide open race. Look at the results we have seen this year in the Windsor Park Plate, the Spring Classic, the Captian Cook Stakes, the Zabeel Classic, the Darci Brahma International, and most recently the Otaki Group 1. We wont see Mufhasa, we most likely wont see Shez Sensational or Jimmy Choux, but you can see the quality these races are attracting and the mixed variety of results behind the winners. Veyron's plans are not certain, but given how well he went over 2000m on Boxing day, his love of Auckland and the form he is in, it could be an interesting race.
15. Changing the colours of the Jockey statue
Will we be seeing Titch's colours adorn the Jockey statue for another year? It is a quirky but awesome tradition at Ellerslie (and many other tracks), the winner of the Auckland Cup will have their colours painted on the statue in the back parade ring for the next year.
16. It is happening all over town
I don't want to get to carried away talking about the other codes, but Auckland Cup is not all about the Thoroughbred's. It is happening at Alexandra Park too, they actually kick it off this Friday night with their Oaks followed by their Derby/Cup night the following week, the details are here. If you are into the dag's (you like dag's?), they have their cup too, next Thursday night, details here.
17. Diamond Stakes
The first Group 1 for the Two Year Olds this season. It is shaping up like an outstanding one. The Two year olds have been going at each other this year, contenders are stepping up and then getting knocked down, it is fascinating stuff. I have no idea what to expect from this year group, it is not like there is a dominant Anabandana this year.
18. Enjoy a day in a beautiful park
Ellerslie is stunning, I was out there the other week for the Avondale Guineas day and the course and grounds are looking in excellent condition. You can essentially boil the day down to a picnic in the park, only with 20,000 other people. Even without the added entertainment, it is almost worth the price of admission just to enjoy the surroundings.
19. Midweek Racing of consequence
Having significant racing during the middle of the week is great. The Cup is at the perfect time to knock off work and head down to the pub, or if you are in the Auckland area just take the day off, a lot of other people will be. Better yet, arrange a 'team building' exercise and get paid to go to the races.
20. Leading international Jockeys
Craig Williams recently won the Karaka Million on Ockham's Razor, it is just another example of the success that international Jockey's have had when they venture to our shores. Cup week last year we saw wins from Jim Byrne, Douglas Whyte, Shane Scriven, other internationals Glenn Boss and Craig Williams riding here not to mention other Jockeys who were based in New Zealand who won that week like Mark Du Plessis, Jason Collett, Opie Bosson who are either overseas now or were at some point in the past 12 months riding. The prize money is not quite what is was last year, but there is still potential to see some internationals making the trip to New Zealand.
Wednesday, 22 February 2012
Will Sir Slick win another race?
When perusing the nominations for this weekend's races I was struck by a couple of things. Firstly, we are looking at another excellent weekend of racing, Group 1 racing in New Zealand with the Haunui Farm Group 1 from Otaki, a big day in Melbourne, two important races for the two year olds in Matamata. The Second was the Listed, Stanley Group Trac Stakes., whilst I am interested in all of the racing action, the Stanley Group Trac Stakes really struck me, why did that race interest me? Sir Slick, not the fact he is nominated, this will be race 149, so he has been nominated many times before, but on first perusal of the field I thought "wow, he might actually have a shot here". It has been a while since I have watched a Sir Slick outing and genuinely thought that.
I love Sir Slick, I am sure that I am not alone in that feeling. He has an extraordinary overall record with 22 wins, he has placed another 39 times in his 148 starts to date. I fondly recall a series of races a few years ago the 2009 New Zealand Stakes, the Japan/NZ Trophy, and the Awapuni Gold Cup. (Follow the link and watch those races. You will need to sign up, but that is free. It is worth it).
I distinctly remember those races as the reason I love watching Sir Slick, it is ironic that in a career highlighted by a number of Group 1 wins and 22 overall victories the quintessential Sir Slick races I choose are 3 second placings. Why do I remember them? I guess I remember the first two because I was fortunate enough to be on course those days. The two which really stand out are the two battles with MacO'Reilly.
It is a strange experience looking back at those videos, on course that day at Ellerslie I was sitting on a table at the end of the home straight, I just remember it been a two horse race, I had no idea O'Reilly Rose nearly stole the show until watching that video. It is funny how you choose to remember events you witnessed in person. Do you remember how much the Ellerslie crowd loved Sir Slick? he was the people's champ, everyone wanted to see a victory, you could sense it. The way that race (and the one at Awapuni) played out, two front running horses, a break from the pack, they were really bringing the best out in each other (each had many great moments in races not facing each other, but those battles stick in my mind), it felt like none of the other horses existed, they were the only two that were important, which is why my memory is an altered reality.
They are examples of why we love Sir Slick. At his peak he was a bold front running horse, he said "I am going to do this, and if you want you can try and beat me". He dared his competitors to chase him down and more often than not wore them down. How can you not appreciate his confidence and raw ability? When he was challenged, when a horse like MacO'Reilly pulled up beside him, he always found more, he lifted, he loved the challenge, the race, the fight. He didn't always prevail, but he was the alpha male who hated having horses in front of him.
That might have been one of the last times that Slick was Slick. There is no doubting he has not quite reached the same heights since those races, or maybe even from slightly before. Yes, he won a couple of races (including taking out the following years Awapuni Gold Cup), he placed in a few and has raced well since then, but those races fondly stick in my mind.
Will Sir Slick win this weekend at Matamata? he certainly has a shot. He is facing the formerly great Pasta Post, who despite a couple of flashes has not recaptured pre-injury form.Veteran South Island galloper Inferno. Up and coming Undisclosed who is coming off his first Group 1 start and now looking at 2000m for the first time. Badly out of form stayer Back in Black, who is still looking at the Auckland Cup. Options, a South Islander who looked good in a couple of starts in Auckland and a third in a similar 2000m race at Te Rapa recently. Better Together a week removed from the Taranaki Cup (1800m) where 200m more might have helped. A former jumper who goes well fresh and showed good form prior to Christmas, Maythehorsebemagic. The often difficult to follow Miss Sharapova. Phantom Storm who may be looking for more distance but should be flying home. The Raconteur is a year removed from better form. The consistent Cat Woman who failed to fire last time stepping up to Open Handicap level. Finally the four year old Starcheeka who is improving with racing and will be well suited to 53kgs this weekend. There will be challenges, but he is definitely in with a chance, this 10 year old has been counted out before only to come back with a flash of his former brilliance. I think this race (if it happens as nominated) may come down to Starcheeka, Maythehorsebemagic, Options and Better Together, there are others who should be considered and Sir Slick is definitely one of those.
If Sir Slick is unable to secure a victory here the question will remain, will Sir Slick win another race? after all that he has given us, does it really matter?
I love Sir Slick, I am sure that I am not alone in that feeling. He has an extraordinary overall record with 22 wins, he has placed another 39 times in his 148 starts to date. I fondly recall a series of races a few years ago the 2009 New Zealand Stakes, the Japan/NZ Trophy, and the Awapuni Gold Cup. (Follow the link and watch those races. You will need to sign up, but that is free. It is worth it).
I distinctly remember those races as the reason I love watching Sir Slick, it is ironic that in a career highlighted by a number of Group 1 wins and 22 overall victories the quintessential Sir Slick races I choose are 3 second placings. Why do I remember them? I guess I remember the first two because I was fortunate enough to be on course those days. The two which really stand out are the two battles with MacO'Reilly.
It is a strange experience looking back at those videos, on course that day at Ellerslie I was sitting on a table at the end of the home straight, I just remember it been a two horse race, I had no idea O'Reilly Rose nearly stole the show until watching that video. It is funny how you choose to remember events you witnessed in person. Do you remember how much the Ellerslie crowd loved Sir Slick? he was the people's champ, everyone wanted to see a victory, you could sense it. The way that race (and the one at Awapuni) played out, two front running horses, a break from the pack, they were really bringing the best out in each other (each had many great moments in races not facing each other, but those battles stick in my mind), it felt like none of the other horses existed, they were the only two that were important, which is why my memory is an altered reality.
They are examples of why we love Sir Slick. At his peak he was a bold front running horse, he said "I am going to do this, and if you want you can try and beat me". He dared his competitors to chase him down and more often than not wore them down. How can you not appreciate his confidence and raw ability? When he was challenged, when a horse like MacO'Reilly pulled up beside him, he always found more, he lifted, he loved the challenge, the race, the fight. He didn't always prevail, but he was the alpha male who hated having horses in front of him.
That might have been one of the last times that Slick was Slick. There is no doubting he has not quite reached the same heights since those races, or maybe even from slightly before. Yes, he won a couple of races (including taking out the following years Awapuni Gold Cup), he placed in a few and has raced well since then, but those races fondly stick in my mind.
Will Sir Slick win this weekend at Matamata? he certainly has a shot. He is facing the formerly great Pasta Post, who despite a couple of flashes has not recaptured pre-injury form.Veteran South Island galloper Inferno. Up and coming Undisclosed who is coming off his first Group 1 start and now looking at 2000m for the first time. Badly out of form stayer Back in Black, who is still looking at the Auckland Cup. Options, a South Islander who looked good in a couple of starts in Auckland and a third in a similar 2000m race at Te Rapa recently. Better Together a week removed from the Taranaki Cup (1800m) where 200m more might have helped. A former jumper who goes well fresh and showed good form prior to Christmas, Maythehorsebemagic. The often difficult to follow Miss Sharapova. Phantom Storm who may be looking for more distance but should be flying home. The Raconteur is a year removed from better form. The consistent Cat Woman who failed to fire last time stepping up to Open Handicap level. Finally the four year old Starcheeka who is improving with racing and will be well suited to 53kgs this weekend. There will be challenges, but he is definitely in with a chance, this 10 year old has been counted out before only to come back with a flash of his former brilliance. I think this race (if it happens as nominated) may come down to Starcheeka, Maythehorsebemagic, Options and Better Together, there are others who should be considered and Sir Slick is definitely one of those.
If Sir Slick is unable to secure a victory here the question will remain, will Sir Slick win another race? after all that he has given us, does it really matter?
Friday, 17 February 2012
Stayers on display in the lead up to Auckland Cup week
I tend to enjoy longer races than sprints, I just enjoy the potential for different tactics, the fact that it all plays out over a longer time frame and that things can consistently change throughout the running. It is sad that we only have two major two mile races in New Zealand and very few other staying feature races, the longest Weight For Age Race is the St Ledger over 2500m at listed level, and we have a handful of Group 2 2400m races. So this is a weekend to savour for people who enjoy top fields of stayer's as we have the Group 2 Avondale Cup and the Group 3 Taranaki Cup (which is only over 1800m, but still), these races combine to feature 15 runners who hold nominees for the Auckland Cup (every runner in the Avondale Cup is currently listed as nominated), so to say this is a important lead up weekend for Cup week is not an understatement.
Taranaki Cup
Lets look at the Taranaki Cup first. I have never been to Pukekura Raceway, but I must say that on TV it is certainly one of the more eye catching tracks in the country, the ocean views in the background, Pukekura Park close by (home to New Zealand's most eye catching Cricket ground), it looks like a great place to attend a race day. The highlights of this field include Wellington Cup runner-up Spiro, Showcause returning, who won last years Avondale and City of Auckland Cup's, Thorndon Mile place getter Jetset Lad, the talented and consistent Smoulder, and a few lightweight chances who appeal as up-and-comers.
Place getters in this race over the last couple of years have not actually gone on to even run in the Auckland Cup, preferring alternate 2000m Group 1's, you have to go back to 2009 when Vickezzchardonnay won here and then ran 4th in the Auckland Cup, and Mircile Miss followed up her 3rd her with a 13th in the cup.
Spiro is having his forth start in just over a month, however as the Wellington Cup second shows he gets better with a bit more racing. He has actually won twice 8th up in his career, while also having wins in the 6th and 9th races of campaigns. He is undefeated over 1800m and on the course in his only attempt a couple of years back. I am not sure if going back in distance will really help, he has looked better over longer distances in recent years and he will have to carry an extra 1kg from the Wellington Cup, and 6kgs more than his last victory, which was in the Wellington Cup the year before. There are enough reasons to stay away from him in this event.
Showcause is having his first start back since the New Zealand Cup and a reasonably successful Melbourne Spring. He has such a good record over 2400m and at Ellerslie it is somewhat surprising he was not aimed at defending his Avondale Cup, but clearly having a first start over a shorter distance was the preferred option. All of his Open Handicap victories have come carrying significantly less weight, but with decent ground underfoot he should be respected.
Cassini was probably outweighed in the City of Auckland and Wellington Cup, 55kg does appeal. The weather looks to be fine which should improve the track to the point it will really suit Cassini. The main concern is 1800m, it feels a bit on the sharp side, it would have been interesting to see what weight she might have got in the Avondale Cup, based on Ratings it might have been closer to what Booming is carrying, so this looks her best chance.
Back in Black, the 2000m victory in Hastings looked like a sign of better things to come, we have not see those things yet. As a seasoned campaigner it is surprising to see that this would be the biggest victory of his career. I guess you should respect some of the past results, but I am happy to leave him out.
Jetset Lad looks very well placed here. He will carry more weight than his Group 1 third in the Thorndon Mile, but the impressive finish combined with the strong record in New Plymouth makes it look like 1800m is exactly what will be required.
Riomoral recorded a lower grade win over 1950m, it is really hard to know what to make of that after most of his starts to date have been over 1200-1400m. You have to respect the win, and the weight reduction at this class, but this looks like a challenge.
Sircross has shown consistency over 1600m, 200m more here without many other changes looks like it will suit. He was a chance in each of his last three starts against similar competition, when you look at the added 200m it looks like he will be an even better chance here. Value at $16.
Minquar Qiam was fifth here two years back to Bruce Almighty, I remember really liking him that year and I can neither confirm nor deny having anything on him in the Auckland Cup. He has not quite reached that level again, but if you look at distance and weight this is the type of event which should see him at his peak competitiveness. Is it enough to see him improve on that fifth? I am not so sure.
I am a big Smoulder fan, many of her 19 starts have come over 1600m, but I always thought a bit more distance wouldn't be a challenge. Other than her run in last years Avondale Guineas her only other start over 1600m was in Australia. Both of her recent runs have been against similar or possibly stronger competition so she is very well placed here and 1800m appeals.
Bruce Almighty will be 48th up, his last win was here in July and he has already had 13 starts since then, his best result was two starts back for second. While this is tough I have written him off before only to see him come through. As a winner of 5 races here you cannot completely write him off, but at the same time he is hard to take on recent form.
Spartanicus has a sweet name and again looks like he should be in this type of race at this weight and distance. He is drawn wide which she see him in a similar position to where he produced a big finish last start. Worth considering, but it appears that there might be too much talent here for him.
Better Together looks to have some ability and should challenge with only 53kgs. Her best recent results have seen her handy from reasonable draws so barrier two is probably right where she wants to be, the distance looks right, her best results have come left handed. She is right in this. Currently paying $9 fixed odds feels about right but maybe a touch short to be considered great value. It is hard to leave her out.
The inform Star of the Show has won 3 straight and not been out of the top 3 this summer. All of that has come at a lower grades, but the reduced weight and big finishes make this seem like the right time to have a shot at this type of race. This is a major step up and will test the 4YO, but I can actually see it happening.
The Raconteur takes a while to get going, but has not shown the same consistency as he did a year ago. The only appeal is the light weight, but it would be a surprise to see him in the top four.
Pomellato is a horse who is closing in on that course specialist title with half of her wins coming here. She was in a far lower grade when she won over 1800m here a month ago. While she looks like a chance, if I was picking a light weight option I would probably look elsewhere.
Bruno is another stepping up who is hard to completely discount, because of weight and recent results. This is a good chance to show his potential if he runs, but a win would surprise.
The Pick
First - Smoulder - All things considered she is the one who looks the most likely to see winning.
Second - Sircross - Good value is hard to turn down, will be interesting to see the tote place odds.
Third - Jetset Lad - I can see why he is favoured here, but there are a lot of chances, it will be a good victory for whoever comes through.
Forth - Better Together - I think one of the lightweights will feature and it was really a toss up between her and Star of the Show, Cassini still deserves a look as well.
Best Value - Sircross ($16)
Longest Shot I can see winning - Bruce Almighty ($21, although it feels a bit short)
Avondale Cup
This time last year Showcause was the lock of the day in the Avondale Cup (... checking result, Ok, maybe not, but Darryl Bradley looks reasonably comfortable in the photo). He went on to run Second in the Auckland Cup, Innocent Lady took her Second here to Forth in the Auckland Cup, and Can't Keeper Down went on to run fifth in the Auckland Cup following her forth. A good show here is important (Trilogy 4th to 9th, Castle Heights 6th to 3rd, Tinsletown 8th to 11th), and does correlate to Auckland Cup success. Prior to last year the race was run at Avondale (in December), the last running was won by Ginga Dude, however in 2010 there was a Cup prelude run on this day, Heza Karma Karzi won and then ran last in the Auckland Cup, Everbright was second and ran 13th in the Cup and Six O'Clock News ran 3rd ended up 7th in that years Auckland Cup, it is evident that the Group 2 status makes this race much more attractive as a lead up to the Auckland Cup, every runner you will see on Saturday still holds a nomination to the Auckland Cup.
For your interest the lead ups for the last three Auckland Cup winners (Titch, Zavite, Spin Around) was Second in the Nathan's Memorial, 1st in a 2500m race in Melbourne, and Second in the Nathan's Memorial, so look out on Derby Day for our next Cup winner. Prize Lady ran in the equivalent of the Avondale Cup/Cup Prelude prior to both of her Auckland Cup Wins.
Booming is carrying a significant weight on Saturday, you can expect him to put forward a good effort over 3200m in the Auckland Cup, but this looks tough. Weight For Age races clearly appeal because of the relative weights his rivals will carry and he has not had a lot of luck this year, but efforts were better prior to Christmas and in Melbourne. Paying $10 on fixed odds seems right as I can't see him as favourite but you cannot rule him out.
The Jungle Boy loves Ellerslie! he enjoys the scenery, he must like the company and crowd, he has had nine starts here, about a quarter of his total races, it is just unfortunate that he doesn't like racing here. It is a mystery as to why, if you take Ellerslie out of it he has won 3 of 12 right handed, it is not like he has come up against amazing competition, or terrible conditions, or consistent bad draws, it is just a weird statistical thing. He has been consistent lately, was good in the Wellington Cup (his first placing at 2400m), but course and distance stats are a concern. This might be the day.
Current New Zealand Cup Champion Blood Brotha won in atrocious conditions. He was very quiet in the Wellington Cup at a point when 2400m seemed ideal. Looking back he has generally bounced back after a bad result so feel free to ignore that Wellington run. They should nickname this horse The Carousel as Michael Coleman will become the 8th Jockey to ride him in as many starts.
Castle Heights was third in the Auckland Cup last year following his 6th in this race. His third in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was in a reasonably similar race. Ellerslie has not been his favourite place to run and 2400m has not been his best distance, but it certainly looks like things are lining up nicely for him to overcome that on Saturday.
Single Minded won the City of Auckland Cup he is back tomorrow carrying only 1kg more. He has won four of his 10 starts, three of those have come this campaign, two over this distance. He was reasonably close in the Wellington Cup and can easily contend here.
Loose Change's only start at Ellerslie to date was a third in this race last year. He has consistently made ground toward the finish in starts over 2000m and should give the punter every chance. Maybe there are horses with more talent in this race but you should get an honest performance and a horse going forward not backwards when it matters. 2400m appeals and $10 looks like decent value.
Wisecrack will be ridden by James McDonald for the 3rd consecutive time and is searching for win number three from those races.He has won half of his starts and generally either wins or really loses, his best result when not winning is finishing 5 lengths from the winner. The last two non-victories involved a vet problem and a knock, the 11th in the Derby was on a very wet day, and the other poor performance looks like it was simply his second start. From that you can assume that he will win unless he gets bad luck.
Don Domingo is a horse who does not really appeal at this level, despite that the fact that he is only going to carry 53kgs. The good include, 53kg's, 3 wins at Ellerslie, he improves with racing, the unknown is the 2400m and the Open Handicap level does not appeal. He might be worth a flyer.
Yours has won 8 races and over 100k but this would be by far the most significant. It is hard not to be a snob but when a horse is racing at Open Handicap level with 48 career starts and none at Ellerslie you have to question the opposition. I would say you have to consider him on the basis of the close second to Titch, but if Titch was in this race would he be in your top four? probably not on current form. This is also his first start right handed.
Innocent Lady has all of the potential in the world. She actually reminds me a bit of Six O'Clock News, it is very impressive when it comes together, but a lot of the time it just doesn't. Her last couple of starts before this race last year were dubious, then she ran second here and fourth in the Auckland Cup. She is well weighted to make her look like value.
Maythehorsebemagic was racing over fences 6 months ago, however has looked pretty good as a stayer on the flat. This is a step up, but the recent record over 2400m and at Ellerslie makes this look tempting particularly given the 52.5kg which is basically nothing compared to what he carried as a hurdler. He will also go pretty well fresh too.
Top Spot has done pretty well with a couple starts at Open level, she will carry 2kg's less than the City of Auckland Cup third. She appears to like it with a bit of moisture around. Give her a chance.
Aruriteson really needs to show me something to make me think he can cut it at this level.
The Picks
First - Wisecrack - just looks like this will be a suitable situation for win number four.
Second - Single Minded - should battle well with wisecrack
Third - Maythehorsebemagic - Will stay well, ready to step up? 52kg is a temptation that is hard to pass on.
Forth - Loose Change - Honest performer who should go close
Best Value - Maythehorsebemagic ($21) - Another place chance at odds
Longest Shot I can see winning - Maythehorsebemagic
Taranaki Cup
Lets look at the Taranaki Cup first. I have never been to Pukekura Raceway, but I must say that on TV it is certainly one of the more eye catching tracks in the country, the ocean views in the background, Pukekura Park close by (home to New Zealand's most eye catching Cricket ground), it looks like a great place to attend a race day. The highlights of this field include Wellington Cup runner-up Spiro, Showcause returning, who won last years Avondale and City of Auckland Cup's, Thorndon Mile place getter Jetset Lad, the talented and consistent Smoulder, and a few lightweight chances who appeal as up-and-comers.
Place getters in this race over the last couple of years have not actually gone on to even run in the Auckland Cup, preferring alternate 2000m Group 1's, you have to go back to 2009 when Vickezzchardonnay won here and then ran 4th in the Auckland Cup, and Mircile Miss followed up her 3rd her with a 13th in the cup.
Spiro is having his forth start in just over a month, however as the Wellington Cup second shows he gets better with a bit more racing. He has actually won twice 8th up in his career, while also having wins in the 6th and 9th races of campaigns. He is undefeated over 1800m and on the course in his only attempt a couple of years back. I am not sure if going back in distance will really help, he has looked better over longer distances in recent years and he will have to carry an extra 1kg from the Wellington Cup, and 6kgs more than his last victory, which was in the Wellington Cup the year before. There are enough reasons to stay away from him in this event.
Showcause is having his first start back since the New Zealand Cup and a reasonably successful Melbourne Spring. He has such a good record over 2400m and at Ellerslie it is somewhat surprising he was not aimed at defending his Avondale Cup, but clearly having a first start over a shorter distance was the preferred option. All of his Open Handicap victories have come carrying significantly less weight, but with decent ground underfoot he should be respected.
Cassini was probably outweighed in the City of Auckland and Wellington Cup, 55kg does appeal. The weather looks to be fine which should improve the track to the point it will really suit Cassini. The main concern is 1800m, it feels a bit on the sharp side, it would have been interesting to see what weight she might have got in the Avondale Cup, based on Ratings it might have been closer to what Booming is carrying, so this looks her best chance.
Back in Black, the 2000m victory in Hastings looked like a sign of better things to come, we have not see those things yet. As a seasoned campaigner it is surprising to see that this would be the biggest victory of his career. I guess you should respect some of the past results, but I am happy to leave him out.
Jetset Lad looks very well placed here. He will carry more weight than his Group 1 third in the Thorndon Mile, but the impressive finish combined with the strong record in New Plymouth makes it look like 1800m is exactly what will be required.
Riomoral recorded a lower grade win over 1950m, it is really hard to know what to make of that after most of his starts to date have been over 1200-1400m. You have to respect the win, and the weight reduction at this class, but this looks like a challenge.
Sircross has shown consistency over 1600m, 200m more here without many other changes looks like it will suit. He was a chance in each of his last three starts against similar competition, when you look at the added 200m it looks like he will be an even better chance here. Value at $16.
Minquar Qiam was fifth here two years back to Bruce Almighty, I remember really liking him that year and I can neither confirm nor deny having anything on him in the Auckland Cup. He has not quite reached that level again, but if you look at distance and weight this is the type of event which should see him at his peak competitiveness. Is it enough to see him improve on that fifth? I am not so sure.
I am a big Smoulder fan, many of her 19 starts have come over 1600m, but I always thought a bit more distance wouldn't be a challenge. Other than her run in last years Avondale Guineas her only other start over 1600m was in Australia. Both of her recent runs have been against similar or possibly stronger competition so she is very well placed here and 1800m appeals.
Bruce Almighty will be 48th up, his last win was here in July and he has already had 13 starts since then, his best result was two starts back for second. While this is tough I have written him off before only to see him come through. As a winner of 5 races here you cannot completely write him off, but at the same time he is hard to take on recent form.
Spartanicus has a sweet name and again looks like he should be in this type of race at this weight and distance. He is drawn wide which she see him in a similar position to where he produced a big finish last start. Worth considering, but it appears that there might be too much talent here for him.
Better Together looks to have some ability and should challenge with only 53kgs. Her best recent results have seen her handy from reasonable draws so barrier two is probably right where she wants to be, the distance looks right, her best results have come left handed. She is right in this. Currently paying $9 fixed odds feels about right but maybe a touch short to be considered great value. It is hard to leave her out.
The inform Star of the Show has won 3 straight and not been out of the top 3 this summer. All of that has come at a lower grades, but the reduced weight and big finishes make this seem like the right time to have a shot at this type of race. This is a major step up and will test the 4YO, but I can actually see it happening.
The Raconteur takes a while to get going, but has not shown the same consistency as he did a year ago. The only appeal is the light weight, but it would be a surprise to see him in the top four.
Pomellato is a horse who is closing in on that course specialist title with half of her wins coming here. She was in a far lower grade when she won over 1800m here a month ago. While she looks like a chance, if I was picking a light weight option I would probably look elsewhere.
Bruno is another stepping up who is hard to completely discount, because of weight and recent results. This is a good chance to show his potential if he runs, but a win would surprise.
The Pick
First - Smoulder - All things considered she is the one who looks the most likely to see winning.
Second - Sircross - Good value is hard to turn down, will be interesting to see the tote place odds.
Third - Jetset Lad - I can see why he is favoured here, but there are a lot of chances, it will be a good victory for whoever comes through.
Forth - Better Together - I think one of the lightweights will feature and it was really a toss up between her and Star of the Show, Cassini still deserves a look as well.
Best Value - Sircross ($16)
Longest Shot I can see winning - Bruce Almighty ($21, although it feels a bit short)
Avondale Cup
This time last year Showcause was the lock of the day in the Avondale Cup (... checking result, Ok, maybe not, but Darryl Bradley looks reasonably comfortable in the photo). He went on to run Second in the Auckland Cup, Innocent Lady took her Second here to Forth in the Auckland Cup, and Can't Keeper Down went on to run fifth in the Auckland Cup following her forth. A good show here is important (Trilogy 4th to 9th, Castle Heights 6th to 3rd, Tinsletown 8th to 11th), and does correlate to Auckland Cup success. Prior to last year the race was run at Avondale (in December), the last running was won by Ginga Dude, however in 2010 there was a Cup prelude run on this day, Heza Karma Karzi won and then ran last in the Auckland Cup, Everbright was second and ran 13th in the Cup and Six O'Clock News ran 3rd ended up 7th in that years Auckland Cup, it is evident that the Group 2 status makes this race much more attractive as a lead up to the Auckland Cup, every runner you will see on Saturday still holds a nomination to the Auckland Cup.
For your interest the lead ups for the last three Auckland Cup winners (Titch, Zavite, Spin Around) was Second in the Nathan's Memorial, 1st in a 2500m race in Melbourne, and Second in the Nathan's Memorial, so look out on Derby Day for our next Cup winner. Prize Lady ran in the equivalent of the Avondale Cup/Cup Prelude prior to both of her Auckland Cup Wins.
Booming is carrying a significant weight on Saturday, you can expect him to put forward a good effort over 3200m in the Auckland Cup, but this looks tough. Weight For Age races clearly appeal because of the relative weights his rivals will carry and he has not had a lot of luck this year, but efforts were better prior to Christmas and in Melbourne. Paying $10 on fixed odds seems right as I can't see him as favourite but you cannot rule him out.
The Jungle Boy loves Ellerslie! he enjoys the scenery, he must like the company and crowd, he has had nine starts here, about a quarter of his total races, it is just unfortunate that he doesn't like racing here. It is a mystery as to why, if you take Ellerslie out of it he has won 3 of 12 right handed, it is not like he has come up against amazing competition, or terrible conditions, or consistent bad draws, it is just a weird statistical thing. He has been consistent lately, was good in the Wellington Cup (his first placing at 2400m), but course and distance stats are a concern. This might be the day.
Current New Zealand Cup Champion Blood Brotha won in atrocious conditions. He was very quiet in the Wellington Cup at a point when 2400m seemed ideal. Looking back he has generally bounced back after a bad result so feel free to ignore that Wellington run. They should nickname this horse The Carousel as Michael Coleman will become the 8th Jockey to ride him in as many starts.
Castle Heights was third in the Auckland Cup last year following his 6th in this race. His third in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was in a reasonably similar race. Ellerslie has not been his favourite place to run and 2400m has not been his best distance, but it certainly looks like things are lining up nicely for him to overcome that on Saturday.
Single Minded won the City of Auckland Cup he is back tomorrow carrying only 1kg more. He has won four of his 10 starts, three of those have come this campaign, two over this distance. He was reasonably close in the Wellington Cup and can easily contend here.
Loose Change's only start at Ellerslie to date was a third in this race last year. He has consistently made ground toward the finish in starts over 2000m and should give the punter every chance. Maybe there are horses with more talent in this race but you should get an honest performance and a horse going forward not backwards when it matters. 2400m appeals and $10 looks like decent value.
Wisecrack will be ridden by James McDonald for the 3rd consecutive time and is searching for win number three from those races.He has won half of his starts and generally either wins or really loses, his best result when not winning is finishing 5 lengths from the winner. The last two non-victories involved a vet problem and a knock, the 11th in the Derby was on a very wet day, and the other poor performance looks like it was simply his second start. From that you can assume that he will win unless he gets bad luck.
Don Domingo is a horse who does not really appeal at this level, despite that the fact that he is only going to carry 53kgs. The good include, 53kg's, 3 wins at Ellerslie, he improves with racing, the unknown is the 2400m and the Open Handicap level does not appeal. He might be worth a flyer.
Yours has won 8 races and over 100k but this would be by far the most significant. It is hard not to be a snob but when a horse is racing at Open Handicap level with 48 career starts and none at Ellerslie you have to question the opposition. I would say you have to consider him on the basis of the close second to Titch, but if Titch was in this race would he be in your top four? probably not on current form. This is also his first start right handed.
Innocent Lady has all of the potential in the world. She actually reminds me a bit of Six O'Clock News, it is very impressive when it comes together, but a lot of the time it just doesn't. Her last couple of starts before this race last year were dubious, then she ran second here and fourth in the Auckland Cup. She is well weighted to make her look like value.
Maythehorsebemagic was racing over fences 6 months ago, however has looked pretty good as a stayer on the flat. This is a step up, but the recent record over 2400m and at Ellerslie makes this look tempting particularly given the 52.5kg which is basically nothing compared to what he carried as a hurdler. He will also go pretty well fresh too.
Top Spot has done pretty well with a couple starts at Open level, she will carry 2kg's less than the City of Auckland Cup third. She appears to like it with a bit of moisture around. Give her a chance.
Aruriteson really needs to show me something to make me think he can cut it at this level.
The Picks
First - Wisecrack - just looks like this will be a suitable situation for win number four.
Second - Single Minded - should battle well with wisecrack
Third - Maythehorsebemagic - Will stay well, ready to step up? 52kg is a temptation that is hard to pass on.
Forth - Loose Change - Honest performer who should go close
Best Value - Maythehorsebemagic ($21) - Another place chance at odds
Longest Shot I can see winning - Maythehorsebemagic
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