Quick, who won the 2011 New Zealand Oaks? tick, tock, tick, buzz. Sorry, no, Kings Rose did not win the Oaks, thanks for playing we have some lovely parting gifts for you.
If you had guessed Scarlett Lady, Shez Sensational, Postmans Daughter or any of the other leading 4YO mares we are seeing around at the moment you would still be wrong. Midnight Oil was the winner, she was followed by Zennista and Insurgent.
This is another year were we will not see the top 3YO filly win the Oaks; she won the New Zealand Derby two weeks ago. That said this field is highlighted by some absolutely top class 3YO talent. The 3YO fillies have been rocking it this year, it is an excellent crop, in my Opinion two of the most stacked 3YO races this year, other than the Derby have been the Eight Carat Classic on Boxing Day and the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. These races didn't even even feature top 3YO prospect at the beginning of the season Anabandana and the Eight Carat Classic featured Dowager Queen but she was far from her best at that point in the season.
This years Oak's field definitely looks split between the "have's" and "have not's" the top half of the book is already very accomplished and filled with genuine winning chances, the bottom half of the book features more uncertainty, but this is the Oaks, it is a huge race and anything can happen.
The Have's
Planet Rock was so impressive in the wet at Hastings, she is a prime contender in this. She is the second favourite which is confusing. Yes, prior to the run at Hastings she recorded two 4ths, but I do feel like she can be fully excused for the first one and partially excused for the second. If you throw out those races would she be favourite? My biggest concern is the change in Jockey, taking off arguably the best big race jockey in the country, that is confusing, in spite of that she may still win.
Is Artistic the filly version of Shuka? look at her 3YO season, it is very consistent, she has finished close up to some very strong competition and she is clearly in the top tier of 3YO's, but she has not really won the big one. I was not sure about her over more distance, but the win during Auckland Cup week and the Sir Tristram Fillies fifth have convinced me otherwise. Has got lucky with the draw, but possibly will face too much competition here to win.
Capital Diamond was very good last time in the Capital. Was just taken out by a flying finish by Quintessential. Zurella gave her more of the same in the Sir Tristram Fillies and Planet Rock trounced her in the Lowland Stakes. She will look to lead and barrier 1 suits this well. She is a very good filly who, with a bit of luck, may have won three starts back at Trentham and won the Sir Tristram Fillies and come into this race as favourite. As it is she is paying $10 (fixed) and $3.25 a place (fixed), can she win? absolutely, will she finish in the money? very likely. Take the $3.25 and thank me later.
Zurella, we know it needs to be dry (and it looks like it will be). We know she goes considerably better left. We know she has run 2400m reasonably well. But there is something about her which leaves me a little cold. Is she overrated? I think she might be. Clearly she is talented, but if you put a stake in the ground and called it A and another stake in the ground 6.2 lengths away and called it B you would be looking at the difference between the best 3YO filly and Zurella (over 2400m), do you think any other filly will finish in that gap in this race? I think so.
Quintessential is paying $15 and $4.75 at the moment. I am not sure what to make of this. I really put it all down to the draw. She is better than that. She finished the day after Planet Rock when third in the Lowland Stakes, but those conditions were horrible. Based on her win here in late January alone you have to consider her a contender here. As I said, I am very put off by the draw, but that is really the major doubt in my mind.
Chicharita is properly rated for this race. She is a horse who I liked for the derby when the conditions looked like they might be bad, this week with a track probably improving to good by start time I am not as confident in her ability to beat some of the other contenders here. Her worst results have come left handed, she was 6th in the Sir Tristram Fillies, every horse who beat her is in this race. Although, she did look good over 2400m as the second filly home, I cant see her improving on that Derby run.
Joy's Choice has been on the radar for a while, but really emerged in the Royal Stakes at Ellerslie, she then came very close to winning the Sunline Vase during Auckland Cup week. I definitely have her in the top half of this field and would be another who I would not be surprised to see in the finish. She is pretty well drawn, and although she was caught late over 2100m, if she can get a sweet trip and save her energy and emerge slightly later she may be able to hold on this time.
Splitsecond is probably the biggest beneficiary of Silent Achiever heading overseas, she will gain the services of James McDonald for this race as he and Roger James target a Derby/Oaks double. $9 is probably a little shorter than I would have expected, but if the Sunline Vase was 2150m she may have won that race (actually Glad probably would have won that race). She has quickly risen to this level and I think a horse like Carrick is a fair comparison, so she has to be considered, she can definitely win this, but with the level of competition $9 does not look like value, $3 a place is more realistic.
The Have Nots (or more accurately the Have Not Yet's)
Poste Restante looks comfortable racing at rating 65 level, she has stepped up recently in distance and slightly in class and been solid but unspectacular. If Angleology was a filly, where would you rate him in the field after his Derby Performance? Probably not in the top 7, right?
Savasong might still be running the Lowlands Stakes. Forgive that race because of the conditions, and look at the 1800m second at New Plymouth as a better guide. Not exactly the stiffest competition, but signs point to her finishing the 2400m well.
Melody Celebre last ran over 1200m about 6 weeks ago. She will like a bit more distance, but this is double, she has run over 1600m a couple of times without success. What is the best case for her? I really don't know. She could win this, but it would require mass scratching for unknown reasons.
Tilda was only 7.5 lengths away from Silent Achiever in the Avondale Guineas. Of course Silent Achiever walked in that race, and that put her behind 6 derby runners. She has had another lower grade start over 2100m since. She looks like she will be able to get the 2400m, but is out of her class here.
Asavant is probably the 'have not' to beat until the barrier draw. It is hard to see her figuring here. She raced in the same race at Trentham on the 28th of January as a number of these starters and finished 13th, she is probably better than that but not significantly.
Jungle Pago is consistent-ish, but hard to see her doing anything over 2400m based on the video of her last start.
Lady Plantinum has been there-or-thereabouts and getting better with distance. The set weight may actually hinder her chances. Although she is not in the class of a lot of these runners she is better than 100-1 would suggest and might be the "have not" to watch.
Manhattam Mam shouldn't be a threat in this race, it is a major step up in class.
Myminkcoat has a very cool name and has been consistent when the footing is good. She is one who should be suited to 2400m and almost closed enough to win last start over 2200m. Again 100-1 seems unfairly high, but I guess when your ceiling may be a top 6 finish it doesn't make a lot of difference.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - I can't sleep on her, she is a Group 1 winner who has returned to form.
Second - Capital Diamond - Forget the last start (it was still a Group 3 Second), but the last two before that were so close.
Third - Splitsecond - I am buying the flying finish from the Sunline Vase
Fourth - Zurella - Reluctantly, I really wanted to pick Artistic, but I know I am too hard on Zurella and she will probably outperform my expectations.
Showing posts with label 2400m. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2400m. Show all posts
Friday, 16 March 2012
Tuesday, 13 March 2012
Three Year Old Power Rankings March Edition
Many things have changed in the last month since the February Power Rankings,we have seen the running of the New Zealand Derby, the Sunline Vase, the Lowland Stakes, and the Mr Tiz Trophy. We have seen a possible return to prominence from Burgundy, and a surprising lack of prominence from Antonio Lombardo, as well as the retirement of Anabandana and Ocean Park heading off in search of his derby across the ditch.
Where does that put us in the Power Rankings?
The Anabandana situation is a mystery, she was second on this list last month, and although she would have dropped following her second, and ultimately final, start in Australia I didn't expect to see a retirement. I guess, much like Distil she will have to drop from the rankings, because if not racing I guess she doesn't qualify. What an outstanding career!
I have really loved this class of fillies, and we are looking at a great Oaks this weekend, we may see another filly on top of this list, but Ocean park has a chance to take a big step up this list as he taking on the Randwick Guineas this weekend.
Not sure what to make of Burgundy after the weekend, which is becoming like his nickname, he was probably never going to win a Derby, after watching the run on the weekend I am unsure if he was really ever going to win a guineas either, it was only a month ago when I wrote " I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana." It would have been awesome if I was writing about Burgundy, but I was actually talking about Antonio Lombardo. This really creates a puzzle. Burgundy looked very good, maybe he was always going to be a 1200m type horse. As it turns out this was the thinking from the connections as well. (although that article indicates it wont be in the thought process, do you think an Easter Handicap is too much of a stretch? we are still waiting on our first 3YO Group 1 winner at open level). Antonio Lombardo didn't really look as good as he did early in the Spring, maybe it was the dead track which had been raced on 24 times that week, or the extra weight he was carrying but he just didn't seem to have that same closing speed, did he do enough to remain in the top 10.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Anabandana (2) Sangster (8) Capital Diamond (10)
Honourable Mention
Anabandana (2, for reasons discussed above), Sangster (8, hard to leave out, his starts this prep have been over 1400m and 1600m, I would expect to see him back in this list once we get closer to 2000m ), Chicharita (Very narrow miss, testament to the quality of the 3YO's we are seeing), Capital Diamond (10, Fought on well in the wet, still a possible Oaks contender, 2400m should not be an issue), Duckworth Lewis (HM), Quintessential (HM), Travolta, Joy's Choice, Nashville (HM), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Glad (not currently Oak's nominated but Sleeper Alert!)
Number 10 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - Would have been hard to leave him off, I really expect to see him bounce back over his next start. He didn't look his best on the weekend, but I expect to see him back to it soon.
Number 9 - Ocean Park (9) - Big expectations around this Colt and what he can do in Sydney.
Number 8 - Knight's Tour (7) - What could have been? Not sure when he is coming back, hopefully he comes back as good has be looked before the injury.
Number 7 - Burgundy (HM) - Back up in the rankings following an impressive 1200m victory in a listed race the last day of Auckland Cup week.
Number 6 - Artistic (HM) - Was her win the Sunline Vase better than Capital Diamond's second in the Lowland Stakes. The conditions were certainly better, it will be interesting to find out this Saturday.
Number 5 - Carrick (N/A) - Close up and fighting third in the Derby, he is probably working with less talent wise than the first two on this list, but he showed a great effort and should continue to contend when the distance gets above 2000m.
Number 4 - Zurella (5) - Was good in the Derby for 5th in a race which probably wasn't ideal. She will want a dryer track in the Oaks, and although it feels (to me anyway) like there is still a question mark over 2400m she may challenge based on talent alone.
Number 3 - Planet Rock (6) - Back to her best when winning on Derby Day in the Hawkes Bay. She is an interesting one, I had to drop her down the list last time because she had two consecutive fourths, however I really felt that the Royal Stakes was justified because of the backing up from the week before and it was her first 2000m start. The following start in the Sir Tristram fillies I felt there were excuses, but it was maybe just not her day, she also finished behind three very good fillies. She is clearly class and can really prove it by beating a top Oak's field this weekend.
Number 2 - Rock'n'Pop (1) - Is it possible I have actually underrated him all year? How do you underrate a Group 1 winner? But he ran out a very strong Derby, prior to this the 3rd at Group 1 level was again excellent. The only time he didn't really fire was on a slow track in a meaningless race. I am still not even sure the distance or conditions for the Derby were really ideal, but he just showed his considerable talent.
Number 1 - Silent Achiever (4) - What more can I say? no, seriously, I have probably written about 5000+ words about her since December. She was amazing on the 3rd, it was a great win. It will be great to see what she can do in Australia. Is she as good as Jimmy Choux was last year? hard to say, I will need to think about that. I feel another breakdown coming on (although I was wrong about the last one I wrote). She is a different horse than Jimmy Choux, she was always going to get better as we got up to 2400m, but maybe we will see them against each other next year over 2000m, that could be interesting. My gut says that Jimmy is better, but even if she is only as good as King's Rose, we are still looking at what will be an interesting 4YO year.
Value Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed, although I can say I will be Glad to see them when they are.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed
Where does that put us in the Power Rankings?
The Anabandana situation is a mystery, she was second on this list last month, and although she would have dropped following her second, and ultimately final, start in Australia I didn't expect to see a retirement. I guess, much like Distil she will have to drop from the rankings, because if not racing I guess she doesn't qualify. What an outstanding career!
I have really loved this class of fillies, and we are looking at a great Oaks this weekend, we may see another filly on top of this list, but Ocean park has a chance to take a big step up this list as he taking on the Randwick Guineas this weekend.
Not sure what to make of Burgundy after the weekend, which is becoming like his nickname, he was probably never going to win a Derby, after watching the run on the weekend I am unsure if he was really ever going to win a guineas either, it was only a month ago when I wrote " I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana." It would have been awesome if I was writing about Burgundy, but I was actually talking about Antonio Lombardo. This really creates a puzzle. Burgundy looked very good, maybe he was always going to be a 1200m type horse. As it turns out this was the thinking from the connections as well. (although that article indicates it wont be in the thought process, do you think an Easter Handicap is too much of a stretch? we are still waiting on our first 3YO Group 1 winner at open level). Antonio Lombardo didn't really look as good as he did early in the Spring, maybe it was the dead track which had been raced on 24 times that week, or the extra weight he was carrying but he just didn't seem to have that same closing speed, did he do enough to remain in the top 10.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Anabandana (2) Sangster (8) Capital Diamond (10)
Honourable Mention
Anabandana (2, for reasons discussed above), Sangster (8, hard to leave out, his starts this prep have been over 1400m and 1600m, I would expect to see him back in this list once we get closer to 2000m ), Chicharita (Very narrow miss, testament to the quality of the 3YO's we are seeing), Capital Diamond (10, Fought on well in the wet, still a possible Oaks contender, 2400m should not be an issue), Duckworth Lewis (HM), Quintessential (HM), Travolta, Joy's Choice, Nashville (HM), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Glad (not currently Oak's nominated but Sleeper Alert!)
Number 10 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - Would have been hard to leave him off, I really expect to see him bounce back over his next start. He didn't look his best on the weekend, but I expect to see him back to it soon.
Number 9 - Ocean Park (9) - Big expectations around this Colt and what he can do in Sydney.
Number 8 - Knight's Tour (7) - What could have been? Not sure when he is coming back, hopefully he comes back as good has be looked before the injury.
Number 7 - Burgundy (HM) - Back up in the rankings following an impressive 1200m victory in a listed race the last day of Auckland Cup week.
Number 6 - Artistic (HM) - Was her win the Sunline Vase better than Capital Diamond's second in the Lowland Stakes. The conditions were certainly better, it will be interesting to find out this Saturday.
Number 5 - Carrick (N/A) - Close up and fighting third in the Derby, he is probably working with less talent wise than the first two on this list, but he showed a great effort and should continue to contend when the distance gets above 2000m.
Number 4 - Zurella (5) - Was good in the Derby for 5th in a race which probably wasn't ideal. She will want a dryer track in the Oaks, and although it feels (to me anyway) like there is still a question mark over 2400m she may challenge based on talent alone.
Number 3 - Planet Rock (6) - Back to her best when winning on Derby Day in the Hawkes Bay. She is an interesting one, I had to drop her down the list last time because she had two consecutive fourths, however I really felt that the Royal Stakes was justified because of the backing up from the week before and it was her first 2000m start. The following start in the Sir Tristram fillies I felt there were excuses, but it was maybe just not her day, she also finished behind three very good fillies. She is clearly class and can really prove it by beating a top Oak's field this weekend.
Number 2 - Rock'n'Pop (1) - Is it possible I have actually underrated him all year? How do you underrate a Group 1 winner? But he ran out a very strong Derby, prior to this the 3rd at Group 1 level was again excellent. The only time he didn't really fire was on a slow track in a meaningless race. I am still not even sure the distance or conditions for the Derby were really ideal, but he just showed his considerable talent.
Number 1 - Silent Achiever (4) - What more can I say? no, seriously, I have probably written about 5000+ words about her since December. She was amazing on the 3rd, it was a great win. It will be great to see what she can do in Australia. Is she as good as Jimmy Choux was last year? hard to say, I will need to think about that. I feel another breakdown coming on (although I was wrong about the last one I wrote). She is a different horse than Jimmy Choux, she was always going to get better as we got up to 2400m, but maybe we will see them against each other next year over 2000m, that could be interesting. My gut says that Jimmy is better, but even if she is only as good as King's Rose, we are still looking at what will be an interesting 4YO year.
Value Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed, although I can say I will be Glad to see them when they are.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed
Thursday, 1 March 2012
2012 New Zealand Derby Preview
This Saturday we are sure to witness a great New Zealand Derby. I have decided to dust off the gimmick I used for the Melbourne Cup last year and pick the result from 17th to first. The field is set, the odds are out, the main unknown is the weather, it is looking reasonably dicey with rain forecast leading up to and on the day. Could we be looking at a third rain effected derby in the last four years? Last year it didn't matter, Jimmy Choux was simply more talented than the remainder of the field, this year? well I think this is already going to be a close race between the main contenders, I think there are some longer shots who can figure, and I think rain could be a great leveler.
(Note: I will be highlighting races to watch for each of the runners, you can watch these by following the link to the NZ Racing website, you will have to sign up, but it is free)
17th Guess What
Jockey: Noel Harris
Barrier: 12
Best race to watch: He ran fourth behind Shuka, Ocean Park and Silent Achiever in the Waikato Guineas, It was a pretty good effort where he kept trying to fight.
What has he done since? Given the guineas fight it is hard to understand the last place without any fight in the Avondale Guineas a couple of weeks later, he has again only had two weeks off, so it is hard to know if you should expect a better effort.
Best case: On the Waikato run you might expect him to travel well and run home well. He may take a lead and holding it until after the turn only to be out sprinted by the big guns falling down to 7th.
16th Barney
Jockey: Craig Grylls
Barrier: 17
Best Race to Watch: The Mad Butcher Championship Stake Prelude, I know his odds made a move for the win a couple of starts later at Matamata, but that was a good Third to a good horse in Duckworth Lewis. He ran well over the 2100m and seemed to find a bit more when he needed it over the last 200m.
What has he done since? He has ran against some good horses without the success, but it is important to note he has been racing at a high level. His win was over 2000m, but it was a $5,000 maiden, when stepping back up in the Waikato Guineas he seemed to fight to the line, but was not a contender. Barrier 17 will worry, has been reasonably handy over the last three, he may find himself in no mans land on Saturday.
Best Case: Is 3 wide, but finds cover, never gives up and beats a couple of tired ones into 12th. His connections have a fun day seeing their horse in the Derby.
15th Mr Chez
Jockey: Sam Spratt
Barrier: 2
Best race to watch: Two starts back at Waikato in the New Zealand Bloodstock Premier he looked good, he really dominated a Rating 65 field over 2100m (well everyone except for Sir Tane), but that is what you would probably expect from a Victorian Derby runner at Rating 65 level.
What has he done since? Was not as good in the Avondale Guineas, finishing well behind Roamin for 6th and possibly delayed Colorado Sun from making a run to beat him.
Best case: He recaptures the consistency which saw him run 3rd in the Geelong Classic, he shows more of a finish and excels over 2400m to slide into 6th place.
13th Colorado Sun
Jockey: Patrick Holmes
Barrier: 13
Best race to watch: Irwins Truck and Bus Sales 1580 It was a pretty good third after getting away slowly, there seemed to be pace on and he was able to go past most of the field to hit the lead, he finished third, but still seemed to run on well.
What has he done since? Had a race in the Avondale Guineas and was handily beaten by six derby starters, the excuse may be that he was hindered for a good run, he did seem to move a bit when he got space, but at that stage it was a bit too late.
Best Case: Will likely go back from barrier 13 and be close to Silent Achiever, the best case is to hope for the speed to be on a bit and to follow the horse who has a nose for the finish line as far as possibly before fading into 8th.
12th Zurella
Jockey:
Barrier: 7
Best Race to watch: If you had a look at the Sir Tristram Fillies earlier to focus on other runners, have another look at Zurella's impressive victory. It looks a bit closer than it is, technically she only won by a long head, but she was heading in the right direction at the end. I particularly liked the extra effort over the last 50 meters to seal victory. The horses she beat that day were as good as any other 3YO field assembled this season other than the 1000 and 2000 guineas and probably the Eight Carat Classic.
What has she done since? That was her last start, it expelled any concerns about 2000m, but maybe 2400m is still concerning, also the predicted weather is a worry given the Royal Stakes result.
Best Case: The weather gods smile and the overnight rain stays away and sun is prevalent to burn the revellers and keep the track dry, she is able to get out of the barrier well and travel well, she is challenged about 300m out by Silent Achiever and Rock'n'Pop after she hits the lead but she is able to dig in and hold on to beat them in a close photo. I just feel that one of the main contenders is likely to falter and given the rain forecast I think she could be the one (if the rain stays away I see her around 4th)
11th Nine Pin
Jockey: Danielle Johnson
Barrier: 1
Best Race to watch: Have a look at his last start in the Collett Racing Stables 2200m, A pretty good second, close to a victory, but showed pretty good fight.
What has he done since? That was his last start it was about two weeks ago.
Best case: I actually quite like this horse, I think he is consistent and I really thought he would be higher in this list, but there is probably just a bit too much class here to put him higher. The best case could involve him getting out of barrier one well and staying handy to show the same fight and consistency into a top 5 finish.
10th Jeroboam
Jockey: TBA
Barrier:10
Best race to watch: The Auckland Co-Op Taxi's mile in December, he ran a pretty good third, and looked to be running on. The main reason to watch that race is that you get to see Silent Achiever win her first race.
What has he done since? He was able to break maidens next start, he ran a good looking second on Avondale Guineas day over 2100m, again he showed signs of hitting the line well.
Best case: He goes well at Ellerslie, he races better handy. If he is able to find a nice trailing run he might be able to stick with the leaders and hold on as they pull away to finish 5th.
9th Carrick
Jockey: Leith Innes
Barrier: 15
Best Race to watch: The Avondale Guineas is probably the best display. It was a good third, but he still trailed Shuka and Silent Achiever. He seemed to go very early in that race and was able to hold on well.
What has he done since? This is his first race since then, he will be better for the start over 2100m.
Best case: He again is not one who has looked to push forward in races, the lack of speed, may change up the tactics, but should at least give him time to find somewhere to settle. I can't really separate Travolta and Carrick, both look decent, but hard to see him featuring in the finish, possibly 3rd or 4th as a best case.
7th Travolta
Jockey: Mark Hills
Barrier: 14
Best Race to Watch: Have a look at him winning over 1600m in Wellington three starts back, he continued to lift to victory on a dead track.
What has he done since? He ran a pretty good fourth in the Avondale guineas after failing at Rating 75 level first time over more than 1600m.
Best Case: I really thought this horse looked great before the Avondale Guineas, he seemed taller and bigger, and looked ready to go. His forth was reasonable and he ran on well, but barrier 14 is a bit off putting. Again the lack of speed may suit and allow him to find cover, if he is able to wind up he could ruin or add value to a few Trifectas by running 3rd.
6th Ocean Park
Jockey: Chad Ormsby
Barrier: 4
Best Race to watch: He was amazing winning the Phil Cataldo Bloodstock Wellington Stakes. Wow, he just kept finding and left them all in his wake.
What has he done since? He looked good in Waikato but was outgunned by Silent Achiever.
Best Case: Barrier four should suit, I am sure they would like to have a eye on Silent Achiever, and typically he has shown strong finishes from distance behind the leaders which is similar to the filly, but from that draw he could put himself in a nice handy position only a few back on the rial, so it will be interesting. The best case is a nice trip, saving his run, showing the ability to hold back and make a late charge like that race in Wellington. He is strong and consistent, rain is a question mark, but he might be too powerful. The rain is a concern enough for me to drop him a couple of spots from where I have him on a good track (3rd behind Rock'n'pop and Silent Achiever).
5nd Rock'n'Pop
Jockey: Matthew Cameron
Barrier: 9
Best Race to Watch: Have a look at his last start against the older horses at WFA level. Forget Shez Sensational, she smashed'em. The pace was off, he was last on the turn and continued to warm up coming home, looking great hitting the line and probably making some ground.
What has he done since? That was his last start, he has had three weeks off, which appears to suit.
Best Case: I read they are going to want to ride him a bit more handy (I can't remember where so I can't include a link), that may suit from barrier 9 you can expect him three or back, with that finish and a bit more distance this strong colt overpowers them and keeps giving making it impossible to Silent Achiever and Ocean Park to catch him. Rain might be the biggest concern which is why I have dropped him from where I would see him in a dry track (2nd), I think if he is handy without much pace on he could still really finish strongly and not be caught.
4th Red Shift
Jockey:
Barrier: 5
Best Race to Watch: Westbury Stud New Zealand-made Stayers 2100m. He beat an interesting field comprising of a couple of competitors he will face Saturday and a couple of others who have raced in other feature races.He had to work for a run, took a while to wind up, but was coming home strongly.
What has he done since? Forgive the next start at Ellerslie, it was not the best effort, but he seemed to get away awkwardly, he still showed fight and covered the 2100m well. He really took a while to wind up, probably 300m before he really started making ground over the final 100m, maybe the extra Derby distance is a blessing.
Best Case: He gets out of the barriers well and stays the the first half of the field. He winds up well and really puts on a show as others are not staying the 2400m lifting to finish 2nd.
3rd Shuka
Jockey: Hayden Tinsley
Barrier: 16th
Best Race to Watch: Watch the Avondale Guineas again, while I think his chances her are hurt by the fact that Silent Achiever is cruising home. I watched that race live, I thought he was gone at the 150m mark which was close to where I was sitting, but he found more and lifted past Carrick for second. It is not that evident on video but live I thought he was going to finish fourth, and he showed a good finish and fight.
What has he done since? That was his last start, he is very consistent and should be in the mix again.
Best Case: Barrier 16 did concern, but there is not much pace in this race which may allow him to get into the first few and a comfortable position, even if he leads I don't think the pace will be too frantic. Hayden Tinsley is a great big race rider and wont panic if things don't start well. He actually reminds me a bit of Military Move from a couple of years ago, consistent without winning, chased home the derby favourite a few times, the race went his way on the day and he was able to take off and win, it is an interesting parallel. Don't worry about the wet either which is why I have bumped him to third.
2nd Chicharita
Jockey
Barrier: 11
Best Race to Watch: New Zealand Bloodstock Royal Stakes (Group 2), She won well, beating Planet Rock and Zurella (who I think have excuses), as well as Our Famous Eve (who went on to perform at Group 1 Level) and the handy Joy's Choice. She ran home beautifully for the victory in that event.
What has she done since? Raced in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic against a good field, on a good track and finished 6th. She was in the first bunch and beat all the horses she was supposed to. She was beaten by five fillies who have had impressive seasons, but I would have liked to see her go a bit better there to figure here.
Best Case: She goes well in Auckland, barrier 11 will suit, and will likely be amongst the top six favourites on Derby Day. The forecast rain will suit, as will the return to a right handed track. She is able to wind up on the turn and explode late to pass Silent Achiever on the line for victory in a best case.
1st Silent Achiever
Jockey: James McDonald
Barrier: 8
Best race to watch: Her beating Ocean Park in the Waikato Guineas, she showed everything you would want to see from your Derby Champion. She had to find a gap and fight through some traffic, she chased down a top horse and found enough to win.
What has she done since? Had a very easy time winning the Avondale Guineas, was really eased to the line after chasing down the competition from her usual rare position.
Best Case: Clearly winning, but the best case would involve James McDonald unleashing all of her significant power and coasting across the line 4 lengths clear of her rivals. She will handle the wet if it comes, barrier eight wont concern she should get a nice trip in the second half of the field.
(Note: I will be highlighting races to watch for each of the runners, you can watch these by following the link to the NZ Racing website, you will have to sign up, but it is free)
17th Guess What
Jockey: Noel Harris
Barrier: 12
Best race to watch: He ran fourth behind Shuka, Ocean Park and Silent Achiever in the Waikato Guineas, It was a pretty good effort where he kept trying to fight.
What has he done since? Given the guineas fight it is hard to understand the last place without any fight in the Avondale Guineas a couple of weeks later, he has again only had two weeks off, so it is hard to know if you should expect a better effort.
Best case: On the Waikato run you might expect him to travel well and run home well. He may take a lead and holding it until after the turn only to be out sprinted by the big guns falling down to 7th.
16th Barney
Jockey: Craig Grylls
Barrier: 17
Best Race to Watch: The Mad Butcher Championship Stake Prelude, I know his odds made a move for the win a couple of starts later at Matamata, but that was a good Third to a good horse in Duckworth Lewis. He ran well over the 2100m and seemed to find a bit more when he needed it over the last 200m.
What has he done since? He has ran against some good horses without the success, but it is important to note he has been racing at a high level. His win was over 2000m, but it was a $5,000 maiden, when stepping back up in the Waikato Guineas he seemed to fight to the line, but was not a contender. Barrier 17 will worry, has been reasonably handy over the last three, he may find himself in no mans land on Saturday.
Best Case: Is 3 wide, but finds cover, never gives up and beats a couple of tired ones into 12th. His connections have a fun day seeing their horse in the Derby.
15th Mr Chez
Jockey: Sam Spratt
Barrier: 2
Best race to watch: Two starts back at Waikato in the New Zealand Bloodstock Premier he looked good, he really dominated a Rating 65 field over 2100m (well everyone except for Sir Tane), but that is what you would probably expect from a Victorian Derby runner at Rating 65 level.
What has he done since? Was not as good in the Avondale Guineas, finishing well behind Roamin for 6th and possibly delayed Colorado Sun from making a run to beat him.
Best case: He recaptures the consistency which saw him run 3rd in the Geelong Classic, he shows more of a finish and excels over 2400m to slide into 6th place.
14th Roamin
Jockey: Trudy Thornton
Barrier: 6
Best race to watch: Kate and 'The Master' 2100 , I liked this first victory, it was a big field, not really of the same caliber he will face on Saturday, but Leith Innes did a great job finding a place to settle and the horse really lifted and responded to challenges over the final 250m.
What has he done since: He went to Auckland and didn't do a lot, followed by another win at Rating 65 level over 2000m at Te Awamutu, he then stepped up in the Avondale Guineas running a fairly close 5th behind four derby starters. He didn't look too bad that day, but looked far short of the class of Silent Achiever.
Best case: The barrier should suit and he may get a similar trip to the race in Hamilton, which would be an improvement on some of his recent starts. He is able to put on a show but finds himself dropping backwards over the final 200m into 9th. Auckland has been a bit of a troubled spot for this horse, which might be simply representative of the level of competition he faces when he races here.
13th Colorado Sun
Jockey: Patrick Holmes
Barrier: 13
Best race to watch: Irwins Truck and Bus Sales 1580 It was a pretty good third after getting away slowly, there seemed to be pace on and he was able to go past most of the field to hit the lead, he finished third, but still seemed to run on well.
What has he done since? Had a race in the Avondale Guineas and was handily beaten by six derby starters, the excuse may be that he was hindered for a good run, he did seem to move a bit when he got space, but at that stage it was a bit too late.
Best Case: Will likely go back from barrier 13 and be close to Silent Achiever, the best case is to hope for the speed to be on a bit and to follow the horse who has a nose for the finish line as far as possibly before fading into 8th.
12th Zurella
Jockey:
Barrier: 7
Best Race to watch: If you had a look at the Sir Tristram Fillies earlier to focus on other runners, have another look at Zurella's impressive victory. It looks a bit closer than it is, technically she only won by a long head, but she was heading in the right direction at the end. I particularly liked the extra effort over the last 50 meters to seal victory. The horses she beat that day were as good as any other 3YO field assembled this season other than the 1000 and 2000 guineas and probably the Eight Carat Classic.
What has she done since? That was her last start, it expelled any concerns about 2000m, but maybe 2400m is still concerning, also the predicted weather is a worry given the Royal Stakes result.
Best Case: The weather gods smile and the overnight rain stays away and sun is prevalent to burn the revellers and keep the track dry, she is able to get out of the barrier well and travel well, she is challenged about 300m out by Silent Achiever and Rock'n'Pop after she hits the lead but she is able to dig in and hold on to beat them in a close photo. I just feel that one of the main contenders is likely to falter and given the rain forecast I think she could be the one (if the rain stays away I see her around 4th)
11th Nine Pin
Jockey: Danielle Johnson
Barrier: 1
Best Race to watch: Have a look at his last start in the Collett Racing Stables 2200m, A pretty good second, close to a victory, but showed pretty good fight.
What has he done since? That was his last start it was about two weeks ago.
Best case: I actually quite like this horse, I think he is consistent and I really thought he would be higher in this list, but there is probably just a bit too much class here to put him higher. The best case could involve him getting out of barrier one well and staying handy to show the same fight and consistency into a top 5 finish.
10th Jeroboam
Jockey: TBA
Barrier:10
Best race to watch: The Auckland Co-Op Taxi's mile in December, he ran a pretty good third, and looked to be running on. The main reason to watch that race is that you get to see Silent Achiever win her first race.
What has he done since? He was able to break maidens next start, he ran a good looking second on Avondale Guineas day over 2100m, again he showed signs of hitting the line well.
Best case: He goes well at Ellerslie, he races better handy. If he is able to find a nice trailing run he might be able to stick with the leaders and hold on as they pull away to finish 5th.
9th Carrick
Jockey: Leith Innes
Barrier: 15
Best Race to watch: The Avondale Guineas is probably the best display. It was a good third, but he still trailed Shuka and Silent Achiever. He seemed to go very early in that race and was able to hold on well.
What has he done since? This is his first race since then, he will be better for the start over 2100m.
Best case: He again is not one who has looked to push forward in races, the lack of speed, may change up the tactics, but should at least give him time to find somewhere to settle. I can't really separate Travolta and Carrick, both look decent, but hard to see him featuring in the finish, possibly 3rd or 4th as a best case.
8th Angelology
Jockey: Kelly Myers
Barrier: 3
Best race to watch: The St Ledger Trial is a good example, maybe he didn't have to beat the biggest or most threatening field, but it was a good example of a first run over 2100m, and he ran it out well.
What has he done since? That was his last start, so will be backing up a week later for this, he has done that a couple of times and won both times.
Best case: You suspect this is far more difficult than anything he has faced, but the fact he has raced without really facing any other contenders, or really even taking on any horses who have also been racing against other runners in this field makes him somewhat of an unknown. He will be the likely leader, particularly from barrier 3, and in a race without a lot of pace or other likely leaders (really only Guess What and Shuka have really led races in the past) he will probably be able to dictate terms, this really could be a sprint finish with a lot of fresh horses. The best case is definitely him taking advantage of the fact his capabilities are unknown and taking off on the corner and stealing victory.
7th Travolta
Jockey: Mark Hills
Barrier: 14
Best Race to Watch: Have a look at him winning over 1600m in Wellington three starts back, he continued to lift to victory on a dead track.
What has he done since? He ran a pretty good fourth in the Avondale guineas after failing at Rating 75 level first time over more than 1600m.
Best Case: I really thought this horse looked great before the Avondale Guineas, he seemed taller and bigger, and looked ready to go. His forth was reasonable and he ran on well, but barrier 14 is a bit off putting. Again the lack of speed may suit and allow him to find cover, if he is able to wind up he could ruin or add value to a few Trifectas by running 3rd.
6th Ocean Park
Jockey: Chad Ormsby
Barrier: 4
Best Race to watch: He was amazing winning the Phil Cataldo Bloodstock Wellington Stakes. Wow, he just kept finding and left them all in his wake.
What has he done since? He looked good in Waikato but was outgunned by Silent Achiever.
Best Case: Barrier four should suit, I am sure they would like to have a eye on Silent Achiever, and typically he has shown strong finishes from distance behind the leaders which is similar to the filly, but from that draw he could put himself in a nice handy position only a few back on the rial, so it will be interesting. The best case is a nice trip, saving his run, showing the ability to hold back and make a late charge like that race in Wellington. He is strong and consistent, rain is a question mark, but he might be too powerful. The rain is a concern enough for me to drop him a couple of spots from where I have him on a good track (3rd behind Rock'n'pop and Silent Achiever).
5nd Rock'n'Pop
Jockey: Matthew Cameron
Barrier: 9
Best Race to Watch: Have a look at his last start against the older horses at WFA level. Forget Shez Sensational, she smashed'em. The pace was off, he was last on the turn and continued to warm up coming home, looking great hitting the line and probably making some ground.
What has he done since? That was his last start, he has had three weeks off, which appears to suit.
Best Case: I read they are going to want to ride him a bit more handy (I can't remember where so I can't include a link), that may suit from barrier 9 you can expect him three or back, with that finish and a bit more distance this strong colt overpowers them and keeps giving making it impossible to Silent Achiever and Ocean Park to catch him. Rain might be the biggest concern which is why I have dropped him from where I would see him in a dry track (2nd), I think if he is handy without much pace on he could still really finish strongly and not be caught.
4th Red Shift
Jockey:
Barrier: 5
Best Race to Watch: Westbury Stud New Zealand-made Stayers 2100m. He beat an interesting field comprising of a couple of competitors he will face Saturday and a couple of others who have raced in other feature races.He had to work for a run, took a while to wind up, but was coming home strongly.
What has he done since? Forgive the next start at Ellerslie, it was not the best effort, but he seemed to get away awkwardly, he still showed fight and covered the 2100m well. He really took a while to wind up, probably 300m before he really started making ground over the final 100m, maybe the extra Derby distance is a blessing.
Best Case: He gets out of the barriers well and stays the the first half of the field. He winds up well and really puts on a show as others are not staying the 2400m lifting to finish 2nd.
3rd Shuka
Jockey: Hayden Tinsley
Barrier: 16th
Best Race to Watch: Watch the Avondale Guineas again, while I think his chances her are hurt by the fact that Silent Achiever is cruising home. I watched that race live, I thought he was gone at the 150m mark which was close to where I was sitting, but he found more and lifted past Carrick for second. It is not that evident on video but live I thought he was going to finish fourth, and he showed a good finish and fight.
What has he done since? That was his last start, he is very consistent and should be in the mix again.
Best Case: Barrier 16 did concern, but there is not much pace in this race which may allow him to get into the first few and a comfortable position, even if he leads I don't think the pace will be too frantic. Hayden Tinsley is a great big race rider and wont panic if things don't start well. He actually reminds me a bit of Military Move from a couple of years ago, consistent without winning, chased home the derby favourite a few times, the race went his way on the day and he was able to take off and win, it is an interesting parallel. Don't worry about the wet either which is why I have bumped him to third.
2nd Chicharita
Jockey
Barrier: 11
Best Race to Watch: New Zealand Bloodstock Royal Stakes (Group 2), She won well, beating Planet Rock and Zurella (who I think have excuses), as well as Our Famous Eve (who went on to perform at Group 1 Level) and the handy Joy's Choice. She ran home beautifully for the victory in that event.
What has she done since? Raced in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic against a good field, on a good track and finished 6th. She was in the first bunch and beat all the horses she was supposed to. She was beaten by five fillies who have had impressive seasons, but I would have liked to see her go a bit better there to figure here.
Best Case: She goes well in Auckland, barrier 11 will suit, and will likely be amongst the top six favourites on Derby Day. The forecast rain will suit, as will the return to a right handed track. She is able to wind up on the turn and explode late to pass Silent Achiever on the line for victory in a best case.
1st Silent Achiever
Jockey: James McDonald
Barrier: 8
Best race to watch: Her beating Ocean Park in the Waikato Guineas, she showed everything you would want to see from your Derby Champion. She had to find a gap and fight through some traffic, she chased down a top horse and found enough to win.
What has she done since? Had a very easy time winning the Avondale Guineas, was really eased to the line after chasing down the competition from her usual rare position.
Best Case: Clearly winning, but the best case would involve James McDonald unleashing all of her significant power and coasting across the line 4 lengths clear of her rivals. She will handle the wet if it comes, barrier eight wont concern she should get a nice trip in the second half of the field.
Monday, 27 February 2012
20 Things to look forward to during Auckland Cup Week
Auckland Cup Week is nearly upon us, it will be an excellent week to celebration New Zealand Racing, although I will no doubt look more closely at some of the feature races as we get closer to the main event, here are a list of things you can look forward to during Auckland Cup Week at Ellerslie.
1. Infield Partying
There are really only a couple of race days a year where the track is packed to the point the infield is used, Saturday the 3rd of March (TV3 Derby Day) will be one of them. I recall last year cramming under a makeshift shelter in the infield with about a dozen friends only coming out to brave the conditions to restock alcohol, place bets and watch races, but it was great fun, very memorable. I eventually made a run to the grandstand to watch Jimmy Choux do his thing, but the party atmosphere in the infield is always a great time. Boxing Day 2011 had one of the biggest crowds I can remember seeing at Ellerslie, the infield was packed and people were having a great time. Ellerslie does a great job of putting on peripheral entertainment, this year featuring Kimbra, I have no idea who that is, but they sure seem to be pushing it.
2. James McDonald
Last year Opie Bosson had an amazing Auckland Cup Carnival, he rode Titch, The Party Stand, and Anabandana to victories in the Auckland Cup, New Zealand Stakes, and the Diamond Stakes taking out three of the four Group 1 races during Auckland Cup week. That seemed an amazing feat, well this year James McDonald has a chance to replicate that feat as pointed out in the Waikato Times. Can he do it will be a sub-story of Cup week, Silent Achiever is currently Derby favorite, Shez Sensational is looking very good for the Cup. The article talks about Scarlett Lady, and if that is favoured in the New Zealand Stakes, however it looks like it has been withdrawn from nominations (at least they are not listed in on the NZRacing Website), if that is the case you might assume she will be in Australia. The question remains, who will he ride in the remaining Group 1, he rode Choice Bro before Matthew Cameron rode him to victory in Taranaki, he rode Silk Pins in its last start before the Karaka Million, he has ridden Deakes and Toaist Master who are potential nominees. I have no idea who is likely to be in this race, or who he is likely to ride, however looking at some of the potential names you have to figure he is a good chance in that Group 1. Assuming Shez Sensational opts for the Cup and Scarlett Lady is not in the NZ Stakes, James McDonald will no doubt get a ride in this race, however looking at recent 2000m WFA races it is harder to see a likely favourite he might ride, so this may be the one which gets away, either way a possible Mcdonald-Sweep is something to look out for during Cup week.
3. The Nathan's Memorial
As discussed last week two of the last three Auckland Cup winners have come second in this race on Derby Day. This seemingly typical 2200m event will likely feature horses racing as a lead up for the cup against others who simply see it as a good value Open Handicap event.
4. New Zealand's Top Horses
Take away the 4 Group 1's and the handful of other races at listed level and above, the fields are stacked throughout the week, even the midweek meeting. Last year Veyron won a 1200m rating 90, he is now a three time Group 1 winner. High stakes are on offer all week which brings in the top horses from around the country.
5. The Telecom New Zealand Derby on TV3 Derby Day
A major feature of Auckland Cup week, and this year promises a number of contenders who all have their merits. Silent Achiever is the favourite, but there is a lot to like about Ocean Park, Zurella and Rock'n'Pop who I can see potentially taking it out. Shuka you would think would need some luck, and Travolta and Carick looked good in the Avondale Guineas. Don't sleep on any of the longer shots they have tended to feature in recent years, it is the Derby, anything can happen.
6. Something for everyone
Looking back at last year, over the 30 races there were essentially an even number from 1200m, 1400m, 1600m, and 21/2200m, as well as races over 1100m, 2000m, 2400m and 3200m. Again an even number of the maiden's, Rating 70, 80, 90 and Open level races, four races for 3YO's a couple for 2YO's and Fillies and Mares. Whatever you are into there is something for you, it also gives trainers and connections opportunity to find the right race for their horse to compete which should increase the racing excitement.
7. Sunline Vase You don't want to sleep on this potentially explosive event. It is a listed race for the 3YO Fillies over 2100m, but there should be some real talent on display. Look back at the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic a couple of weeks ago, some of those contenders will be on display in the derby, but it is evident that we have a talented group of 3YO fillies, many of these will be taking on this event before the Oaks in a couple of weeks, this is a race to keep an eye on.
8. A major Citywide event
There is certainly a buzz around Auckland leading up to derby day. Not a crazy buzz, this is not an All Black's game, but people are definitely aware it is on, there will be a significant turn out all three days. Auckland Racing Club does a good job promoting this event and making people aware of how fun a day at the races can be.
9. TV3's new Sponsorship
Telecom is a great Derby Sponsor, TV3 certainly has great potential to bring additional life to the event. I can imagine their sponsorship should see more coverage of races outside of the Trackside channels. I thought Sky TV did a great job on Karaka Million night, and although I will be at Ellerslie on Derby Day it will be interesting to see what TV3 can do showing off the sights and sounds.
10. A 3200m Group 1
A very unique event, yes it is annual, but still not a lot of these major staying tests in the country, this year's field is starting to look like it is a very solid one. The Stella Artois Auckland Cup is a race which dates back until 1874 (at least if Wikipedia is to be believed). It is really the great unknown, many of the runners who accept wont have started a race over 2400m, it will a great test of stamina, a big field will line up which will make it s tactical challenge, and a stunning sight for the spectators, there will be questions on every runner as they enter the parade ring, there will be no certainties. Look at the Current favourites, Shez Sensational, Booming, Single Minded, Titch and Six O'Clock News, some questions include distance, weight, distance, form, and consistency amongst others. The winner will see it as an opportunity to look at other Cup races in the future as well as adding a/another Group 1 to their resume.
11. An office sweepstake opportunity
Do you really need an excuse? if it is good for the Melbourne Cup why not the Auckland Cup, it is on in a lot of pubs, get the team together, set up a sweep, drink beers, have fun, it is a simple recipe.If you are the person in your office who is into racing, take charge, set it up.
12. Diamond Day Whip'n'Spurs
If you have not yet experienced a Whips'n'Spurs party you should make this the one. They are a great event, relatively cheap, filled with people all dressed up, you get a great view of the track, and can party all night. You can get your tickets here.
13. Fashion and Stuff
It is not what brings me to the races, but it does tend to attract a lot of Women, and that is never a bad thing. Whenever I can get a good group together to attend these major race days I get to witness how much time an energy females put into wardrobe, hair, makeup, accessories. They go crazy for this stuff and despite the frustration which accompanies making five outfit changes in a morning before the races they clearly enjoy it. I am not in a position to mock, I spend multiple hours studying form in the week leading up to the races and typically get less out of it. The best bit, have you see a woman try to walk in high heels after three bottles of bubbly in 25+ degree temperatures, it is fun for the whole family.
14. New Zealand Stakes
What do you expect? Shez Sensational has won two Group 1 WFA races over 2000m this season, but take her out of it and this will be a wide open race. Look at the results we have seen this year in the Windsor Park Plate, the Spring Classic, the Captian Cook Stakes, the Zabeel Classic, the Darci Brahma International, and most recently the Otaki Group 1. We wont see Mufhasa, we most likely wont see Shez Sensational or Jimmy Choux, but you can see the quality these races are attracting and the mixed variety of results behind the winners. Veyron's plans are not certain, but given how well he went over 2000m on Boxing day, his love of Auckland and the form he is in, it could be an interesting race.
15. Changing the colours of the Jockey statue
Will we be seeing Titch's colours adorn the Jockey statue for another year? It is a quirky but awesome tradition at Ellerslie (and many other tracks), the winner of the Auckland Cup will have their colours painted on the statue in the back parade ring for the next year.
16. It is happening all over town
I don't want to get to carried away talking about the other codes, but Auckland Cup is not all about the Thoroughbred's. It is happening at Alexandra Park too, they actually kick it off this Friday night with their Oaks followed by their Derby/Cup night the following week, the details are here. If you are into the dag's (you like dag's?), they have their cup too, next Thursday night, details here.
17. Diamond Stakes
The first Group 1 for the Two Year Olds this season. It is shaping up like an outstanding one. The Two year olds have been going at each other this year, contenders are stepping up and then getting knocked down, it is fascinating stuff. I have no idea what to expect from this year group, it is not like there is a dominant Anabandana this year.
18. Enjoy a day in a beautiful park
Ellerslie is stunning, I was out there the other week for the Avondale Guineas day and the course and grounds are looking in excellent condition. You can essentially boil the day down to a picnic in the park, only with 20,000 other people. Even without the added entertainment, it is almost worth the price of admission just to enjoy the surroundings.
19. Midweek Racing of consequence
Having significant racing during the middle of the week is great. The Cup is at the perfect time to knock off work and head down to the pub, or if you are in the Auckland area just take the day off, a lot of other people will be. Better yet, arrange a 'team building' exercise and get paid to go to the races.
20. Leading international Jockeys
Craig Williams recently won the Karaka Million on Ockham's Razor, it is just another example of the success that international Jockey's have had when they venture to our shores. Cup week last year we saw wins from Jim Byrne, Douglas Whyte, Shane Scriven, other internationals Glenn Boss and Craig Williams riding here not to mention other Jockeys who were based in New Zealand who won that week like Mark Du Plessis, Jason Collett, Opie Bosson who are either overseas now or were at some point in the past 12 months riding. The prize money is not quite what is was last year, but there is still potential to see some internationals making the trip to New Zealand.
1. Infield Partying
There are really only a couple of race days a year where the track is packed to the point the infield is used, Saturday the 3rd of March (TV3 Derby Day) will be one of them. I recall last year cramming under a makeshift shelter in the infield with about a dozen friends only coming out to brave the conditions to restock alcohol, place bets and watch races, but it was great fun, very memorable. I eventually made a run to the grandstand to watch Jimmy Choux do his thing, but the party atmosphere in the infield is always a great time. Boxing Day 2011 had one of the biggest crowds I can remember seeing at Ellerslie, the infield was packed and people were having a great time. Ellerslie does a great job of putting on peripheral entertainment, this year featuring Kimbra, I have no idea who that is, but they sure seem to be pushing it.
2. James McDonald
Last year Opie Bosson had an amazing Auckland Cup Carnival, he rode Titch, The Party Stand, and Anabandana to victories in the Auckland Cup, New Zealand Stakes, and the Diamond Stakes taking out three of the four Group 1 races during Auckland Cup week. That seemed an amazing feat, well this year James McDonald has a chance to replicate that feat as pointed out in the Waikato Times. Can he do it will be a sub-story of Cup week, Silent Achiever is currently Derby favorite, Shez Sensational is looking very good for the Cup. The article talks about Scarlett Lady, and if that is favoured in the New Zealand Stakes, however it looks like it has been withdrawn from nominations (at least they are not listed in on the NZRacing Website), if that is the case you might assume she will be in Australia. The question remains, who will he ride in the remaining Group 1, he rode Choice Bro before Matthew Cameron rode him to victory in Taranaki, he rode Silk Pins in its last start before the Karaka Million, he has ridden Deakes and Toaist Master who are potential nominees. I have no idea who is likely to be in this race, or who he is likely to ride, however looking at some of the potential names you have to figure he is a good chance in that Group 1. Assuming Shez Sensational opts for the Cup and Scarlett Lady is not in the NZ Stakes, James McDonald will no doubt get a ride in this race, however looking at recent 2000m WFA races it is harder to see a likely favourite he might ride, so this may be the one which gets away, either way a possible Mcdonald-Sweep is something to look out for during Cup week.
3. The Nathan's Memorial
As discussed last week two of the last three Auckland Cup winners have come second in this race on Derby Day. This seemingly typical 2200m event will likely feature horses racing as a lead up for the cup against others who simply see it as a good value Open Handicap event.
4. New Zealand's Top Horses
Take away the 4 Group 1's and the handful of other races at listed level and above, the fields are stacked throughout the week, even the midweek meeting. Last year Veyron won a 1200m rating 90, he is now a three time Group 1 winner. High stakes are on offer all week which brings in the top horses from around the country.
5. The Telecom New Zealand Derby on TV3 Derby Day
A major feature of Auckland Cup week, and this year promises a number of contenders who all have their merits. Silent Achiever is the favourite, but there is a lot to like about Ocean Park, Zurella and Rock'n'Pop who I can see potentially taking it out. Shuka you would think would need some luck, and Travolta and Carick looked good in the Avondale Guineas. Don't sleep on any of the longer shots they have tended to feature in recent years, it is the Derby, anything can happen.
6. Something for everyone
Looking back at last year, over the 30 races there were essentially an even number from 1200m, 1400m, 1600m, and 21/2200m, as well as races over 1100m, 2000m, 2400m and 3200m. Again an even number of the maiden's, Rating 70, 80, 90 and Open level races, four races for 3YO's a couple for 2YO's and Fillies and Mares. Whatever you are into there is something for you, it also gives trainers and connections opportunity to find the right race for their horse to compete which should increase the racing excitement.
7. Sunline Vase You don't want to sleep on this potentially explosive event. It is a listed race for the 3YO Fillies over 2100m, but there should be some real talent on display. Look back at the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic a couple of weeks ago, some of those contenders will be on display in the derby, but it is evident that we have a talented group of 3YO fillies, many of these will be taking on this event before the Oaks in a couple of weeks, this is a race to keep an eye on.
8. A major Citywide event
There is certainly a buzz around Auckland leading up to derby day. Not a crazy buzz, this is not an All Black's game, but people are definitely aware it is on, there will be a significant turn out all three days. Auckland Racing Club does a good job promoting this event and making people aware of how fun a day at the races can be.
9. TV3's new Sponsorship
Telecom is a great Derby Sponsor, TV3 certainly has great potential to bring additional life to the event. I can imagine their sponsorship should see more coverage of races outside of the Trackside channels. I thought Sky TV did a great job on Karaka Million night, and although I will be at Ellerslie on Derby Day it will be interesting to see what TV3 can do showing off the sights and sounds.
10. A 3200m Group 1
A very unique event, yes it is annual, but still not a lot of these major staying tests in the country, this year's field is starting to look like it is a very solid one. The Stella Artois Auckland Cup is a race which dates back until 1874 (at least if Wikipedia is to be believed). It is really the great unknown, many of the runners who accept wont have started a race over 2400m, it will a great test of stamina, a big field will line up which will make it s tactical challenge, and a stunning sight for the spectators, there will be questions on every runner as they enter the parade ring, there will be no certainties. Look at the Current favourites, Shez Sensational, Booming, Single Minded, Titch and Six O'Clock News, some questions include distance, weight, distance, form, and consistency amongst others. The winner will see it as an opportunity to look at other Cup races in the future as well as adding a/another Group 1 to their resume.
11. An office sweepstake opportunity
Do you really need an excuse? if it is good for the Melbourne Cup why not the Auckland Cup, it is on in a lot of pubs, get the team together, set up a sweep, drink beers, have fun, it is a simple recipe.If you are the person in your office who is into racing, take charge, set it up.
12. Diamond Day Whip'n'Spurs
If you have not yet experienced a Whips'n'Spurs party you should make this the one. They are a great event, relatively cheap, filled with people all dressed up, you get a great view of the track, and can party all night. You can get your tickets here.
13. Fashion and Stuff
It is not what brings me to the races, but it does tend to attract a lot of Women, and that is never a bad thing. Whenever I can get a good group together to attend these major race days I get to witness how much time an energy females put into wardrobe, hair, makeup, accessories. They go crazy for this stuff and despite the frustration which accompanies making five outfit changes in a morning before the races they clearly enjoy it. I am not in a position to mock, I spend multiple hours studying form in the week leading up to the races and typically get less out of it. The best bit, have you see a woman try to walk in high heels after three bottles of bubbly in 25+ degree temperatures, it is fun for the whole family.
14. New Zealand Stakes
What do you expect? Shez Sensational has won two Group 1 WFA races over 2000m this season, but take her out of it and this will be a wide open race. Look at the results we have seen this year in the Windsor Park Plate, the Spring Classic, the Captian Cook Stakes, the Zabeel Classic, the Darci Brahma International, and most recently the Otaki Group 1. We wont see Mufhasa, we most likely wont see Shez Sensational or Jimmy Choux, but you can see the quality these races are attracting and the mixed variety of results behind the winners. Veyron's plans are not certain, but given how well he went over 2000m on Boxing day, his love of Auckland and the form he is in, it could be an interesting race.
15. Changing the colours of the Jockey statue
Will we be seeing Titch's colours adorn the Jockey statue for another year? It is a quirky but awesome tradition at Ellerslie (and many other tracks), the winner of the Auckland Cup will have their colours painted on the statue in the back parade ring for the next year.
16. It is happening all over town
I don't want to get to carried away talking about the other codes, but Auckland Cup is not all about the Thoroughbred's. It is happening at Alexandra Park too, they actually kick it off this Friday night with their Oaks followed by their Derby/Cup night the following week, the details are here. If you are into the dag's (you like dag's?), they have their cup too, next Thursday night, details here.
17. Diamond Stakes
The first Group 1 for the Two Year Olds this season. It is shaping up like an outstanding one. The Two year olds have been going at each other this year, contenders are stepping up and then getting knocked down, it is fascinating stuff. I have no idea what to expect from this year group, it is not like there is a dominant Anabandana this year.
18. Enjoy a day in a beautiful park
Ellerslie is stunning, I was out there the other week for the Avondale Guineas day and the course and grounds are looking in excellent condition. You can essentially boil the day down to a picnic in the park, only with 20,000 other people. Even without the added entertainment, it is almost worth the price of admission just to enjoy the surroundings.
19. Midweek Racing of consequence
Having significant racing during the middle of the week is great. The Cup is at the perfect time to knock off work and head down to the pub, or if you are in the Auckland area just take the day off, a lot of other people will be. Better yet, arrange a 'team building' exercise and get paid to go to the races.
20. Leading international Jockeys
Craig Williams recently won the Karaka Million on Ockham's Razor, it is just another example of the success that international Jockey's have had when they venture to our shores. Cup week last year we saw wins from Jim Byrne, Douglas Whyte, Shane Scriven, other internationals Glenn Boss and Craig Williams riding here not to mention other Jockeys who were based in New Zealand who won that week like Mark Du Plessis, Jason Collett, Opie Bosson who are either overseas now or were at some point in the past 12 months riding. The prize money is not quite what is was last year, but there is still potential to see some internationals making the trip to New Zealand.
Friday, 17 February 2012
Stayers on display in the lead up to Auckland Cup week
I tend to enjoy longer races than sprints, I just enjoy the potential for different tactics, the fact that it all plays out over a longer time frame and that things can consistently change throughout the running. It is sad that we only have two major two mile races in New Zealand and very few other staying feature races, the longest Weight For Age Race is the St Ledger over 2500m at listed level, and we have a handful of Group 2 2400m races. So this is a weekend to savour for people who enjoy top fields of stayer's as we have the Group 2 Avondale Cup and the Group 3 Taranaki Cup (which is only over 1800m, but still), these races combine to feature 15 runners who hold nominees for the Auckland Cup (every runner in the Avondale Cup is currently listed as nominated), so to say this is a important lead up weekend for Cup week is not an understatement.
Taranaki Cup
Lets look at the Taranaki Cup first. I have never been to Pukekura Raceway, but I must say that on TV it is certainly one of the more eye catching tracks in the country, the ocean views in the background, Pukekura Park close by (home to New Zealand's most eye catching Cricket ground), it looks like a great place to attend a race day. The highlights of this field include Wellington Cup runner-up Spiro, Showcause returning, who won last years Avondale and City of Auckland Cup's, Thorndon Mile place getter Jetset Lad, the talented and consistent Smoulder, and a few lightweight chances who appeal as up-and-comers.
Place getters in this race over the last couple of years have not actually gone on to even run in the Auckland Cup, preferring alternate 2000m Group 1's, you have to go back to 2009 when Vickezzchardonnay won here and then ran 4th in the Auckland Cup, and Mircile Miss followed up her 3rd her with a 13th in the cup.
Spiro is having his forth start in just over a month, however as the Wellington Cup second shows he gets better with a bit more racing. He has actually won twice 8th up in his career, while also having wins in the 6th and 9th races of campaigns. He is undefeated over 1800m and on the course in his only attempt a couple of years back. I am not sure if going back in distance will really help, he has looked better over longer distances in recent years and he will have to carry an extra 1kg from the Wellington Cup, and 6kgs more than his last victory, which was in the Wellington Cup the year before. There are enough reasons to stay away from him in this event.
Showcause is having his first start back since the New Zealand Cup and a reasonably successful Melbourne Spring. He has such a good record over 2400m and at Ellerslie it is somewhat surprising he was not aimed at defending his Avondale Cup, but clearly having a first start over a shorter distance was the preferred option. All of his Open Handicap victories have come carrying significantly less weight, but with decent ground underfoot he should be respected.
Cassini was probably outweighed in the City of Auckland and Wellington Cup, 55kg does appeal. The weather looks to be fine which should improve the track to the point it will really suit Cassini. The main concern is 1800m, it feels a bit on the sharp side, it would have been interesting to see what weight she might have got in the Avondale Cup, based on Ratings it might have been closer to what Booming is carrying, so this looks her best chance.
Back in Black, the 2000m victory in Hastings looked like a sign of better things to come, we have not see those things yet. As a seasoned campaigner it is surprising to see that this would be the biggest victory of his career. I guess you should respect some of the past results, but I am happy to leave him out.
Jetset Lad looks very well placed here. He will carry more weight than his Group 1 third in the Thorndon Mile, but the impressive finish combined with the strong record in New Plymouth makes it look like 1800m is exactly what will be required.
Riomoral recorded a lower grade win over 1950m, it is really hard to know what to make of that after most of his starts to date have been over 1200-1400m. You have to respect the win, and the weight reduction at this class, but this looks like a challenge.
Sircross has shown consistency over 1600m, 200m more here without many other changes looks like it will suit. He was a chance in each of his last three starts against similar competition, when you look at the added 200m it looks like he will be an even better chance here. Value at $16.
Minquar Qiam was fifth here two years back to Bruce Almighty, I remember really liking him that year and I can neither confirm nor deny having anything on him in the Auckland Cup. He has not quite reached that level again, but if you look at distance and weight this is the type of event which should see him at his peak competitiveness. Is it enough to see him improve on that fifth? I am not so sure.
I am a big Smoulder fan, many of her 19 starts have come over 1600m, but I always thought a bit more distance wouldn't be a challenge. Other than her run in last years Avondale Guineas her only other start over 1600m was in Australia. Both of her recent runs have been against similar or possibly stronger competition so she is very well placed here and 1800m appeals.
Bruce Almighty will be 48th up, his last win was here in July and he has already had 13 starts since then, his best result was two starts back for second. While this is tough I have written him off before only to see him come through. As a winner of 5 races here you cannot completely write him off, but at the same time he is hard to take on recent form.
Spartanicus has a sweet name and again looks like he should be in this type of race at this weight and distance. He is drawn wide which she see him in a similar position to where he produced a big finish last start. Worth considering, but it appears that there might be too much talent here for him.
Better Together looks to have some ability and should challenge with only 53kgs. Her best recent results have seen her handy from reasonable draws so barrier two is probably right where she wants to be, the distance looks right, her best results have come left handed. She is right in this. Currently paying $9 fixed odds feels about right but maybe a touch short to be considered great value. It is hard to leave her out.
The inform Star of the Show has won 3 straight and not been out of the top 3 this summer. All of that has come at a lower grades, but the reduced weight and big finishes make this seem like the right time to have a shot at this type of race. This is a major step up and will test the 4YO, but I can actually see it happening.
The Raconteur takes a while to get going, but has not shown the same consistency as he did a year ago. The only appeal is the light weight, but it would be a surprise to see him in the top four.
Pomellato is a horse who is closing in on that course specialist title with half of her wins coming here. She was in a far lower grade when she won over 1800m here a month ago. While she looks like a chance, if I was picking a light weight option I would probably look elsewhere.
Bruno is another stepping up who is hard to completely discount, because of weight and recent results. This is a good chance to show his potential if he runs, but a win would surprise.
The Pick
First - Smoulder - All things considered she is the one who looks the most likely to see winning.
Second - Sircross - Good value is hard to turn down, will be interesting to see the tote place odds.
Third - Jetset Lad - I can see why he is favoured here, but there are a lot of chances, it will be a good victory for whoever comes through.
Forth - Better Together - I think one of the lightweights will feature and it was really a toss up between her and Star of the Show, Cassini still deserves a look as well.
Best Value - Sircross ($16)
Longest Shot I can see winning - Bruce Almighty ($21, although it feels a bit short)
Avondale Cup
This time last year Showcause was the lock of the day in the Avondale Cup (... checking result, Ok, maybe not, but Darryl Bradley looks reasonably comfortable in the photo). He went on to run Second in the Auckland Cup, Innocent Lady took her Second here to Forth in the Auckland Cup, and Can't Keeper Down went on to run fifth in the Auckland Cup following her forth. A good show here is important (Trilogy 4th to 9th, Castle Heights 6th to 3rd, Tinsletown 8th to 11th), and does correlate to Auckland Cup success. Prior to last year the race was run at Avondale (in December), the last running was won by Ginga Dude, however in 2010 there was a Cup prelude run on this day, Heza Karma Karzi won and then ran last in the Auckland Cup, Everbright was second and ran 13th in the Cup and Six O'Clock News ran 3rd ended up 7th in that years Auckland Cup, it is evident that the Group 2 status makes this race much more attractive as a lead up to the Auckland Cup, every runner you will see on Saturday still holds a nomination to the Auckland Cup.
For your interest the lead ups for the last three Auckland Cup winners (Titch, Zavite, Spin Around) was Second in the Nathan's Memorial, 1st in a 2500m race in Melbourne, and Second in the Nathan's Memorial, so look out on Derby Day for our next Cup winner. Prize Lady ran in the equivalent of the Avondale Cup/Cup Prelude prior to both of her Auckland Cup Wins.
Booming is carrying a significant weight on Saturday, you can expect him to put forward a good effort over 3200m in the Auckland Cup, but this looks tough. Weight For Age races clearly appeal because of the relative weights his rivals will carry and he has not had a lot of luck this year, but efforts were better prior to Christmas and in Melbourne. Paying $10 on fixed odds seems right as I can't see him as favourite but you cannot rule him out.
The Jungle Boy loves Ellerslie! he enjoys the scenery, he must like the company and crowd, he has had nine starts here, about a quarter of his total races, it is just unfortunate that he doesn't like racing here. It is a mystery as to why, if you take Ellerslie out of it he has won 3 of 12 right handed, it is not like he has come up against amazing competition, or terrible conditions, or consistent bad draws, it is just a weird statistical thing. He has been consistent lately, was good in the Wellington Cup (his first placing at 2400m), but course and distance stats are a concern. This might be the day.
Current New Zealand Cup Champion Blood Brotha won in atrocious conditions. He was very quiet in the Wellington Cup at a point when 2400m seemed ideal. Looking back he has generally bounced back after a bad result so feel free to ignore that Wellington run. They should nickname this horse The Carousel as Michael Coleman will become the 8th Jockey to ride him in as many starts.
Castle Heights was third in the Auckland Cup last year following his 6th in this race. His third in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was in a reasonably similar race. Ellerslie has not been his favourite place to run and 2400m has not been his best distance, but it certainly looks like things are lining up nicely for him to overcome that on Saturday.
Single Minded won the City of Auckland Cup he is back tomorrow carrying only 1kg more. He has won four of his 10 starts, three of those have come this campaign, two over this distance. He was reasonably close in the Wellington Cup and can easily contend here.
Loose Change's only start at Ellerslie to date was a third in this race last year. He has consistently made ground toward the finish in starts over 2000m and should give the punter every chance. Maybe there are horses with more talent in this race but you should get an honest performance and a horse going forward not backwards when it matters. 2400m appeals and $10 looks like decent value.
Wisecrack will be ridden by James McDonald for the 3rd consecutive time and is searching for win number three from those races.He has won half of his starts and generally either wins or really loses, his best result when not winning is finishing 5 lengths from the winner. The last two non-victories involved a vet problem and a knock, the 11th in the Derby was on a very wet day, and the other poor performance looks like it was simply his second start. From that you can assume that he will win unless he gets bad luck.
Don Domingo is a horse who does not really appeal at this level, despite that the fact that he is only going to carry 53kgs. The good include, 53kg's, 3 wins at Ellerslie, he improves with racing, the unknown is the 2400m and the Open Handicap level does not appeal. He might be worth a flyer.
Yours has won 8 races and over 100k but this would be by far the most significant. It is hard not to be a snob but when a horse is racing at Open Handicap level with 48 career starts and none at Ellerslie you have to question the opposition. I would say you have to consider him on the basis of the close second to Titch, but if Titch was in this race would he be in your top four? probably not on current form. This is also his first start right handed.
Innocent Lady has all of the potential in the world. She actually reminds me a bit of Six O'Clock News, it is very impressive when it comes together, but a lot of the time it just doesn't. Her last couple of starts before this race last year were dubious, then she ran second here and fourth in the Auckland Cup. She is well weighted to make her look like value.
Maythehorsebemagic was racing over fences 6 months ago, however has looked pretty good as a stayer on the flat. This is a step up, but the recent record over 2400m and at Ellerslie makes this look tempting particularly given the 52.5kg which is basically nothing compared to what he carried as a hurdler. He will also go pretty well fresh too.
Top Spot has done pretty well with a couple starts at Open level, she will carry 2kg's less than the City of Auckland Cup third. She appears to like it with a bit of moisture around. Give her a chance.
Aruriteson really needs to show me something to make me think he can cut it at this level.
The Picks
First - Wisecrack - just looks like this will be a suitable situation for win number four.
Second - Single Minded - should battle well with wisecrack
Third - Maythehorsebemagic - Will stay well, ready to step up? 52kg is a temptation that is hard to pass on.
Forth - Loose Change - Honest performer who should go close
Best Value - Maythehorsebemagic ($21) - Another place chance at odds
Longest Shot I can see winning - Maythehorsebemagic
Taranaki Cup
Lets look at the Taranaki Cup first. I have never been to Pukekura Raceway, but I must say that on TV it is certainly one of the more eye catching tracks in the country, the ocean views in the background, Pukekura Park close by (home to New Zealand's most eye catching Cricket ground), it looks like a great place to attend a race day. The highlights of this field include Wellington Cup runner-up Spiro, Showcause returning, who won last years Avondale and City of Auckland Cup's, Thorndon Mile place getter Jetset Lad, the talented and consistent Smoulder, and a few lightweight chances who appeal as up-and-comers.
Place getters in this race over the last couple of years have not actually gone on to even run in the Auckland Cup, preferring alternate 2000m Group 1's, you have to go back to 2009 when Vickezzchardonnay won here and then ran 4th in the Auckland Cup, and Mircile Miss followed up her 3rd her with a 13th in the cup.
Spiro is having his forth start in just over a month, however as the Wellington Cup second shows he gets better with a bit more racing. He has actually won twice 8th up in his career, while also having wins in the 6th and 9th races of campaigns. He is undefeated over 1800m and on the course in his only attempt a couple of years back. I am not sure if going back in distance will really help, he has looked better over longer distances in recent years and he will have to carry an extra 1kg from the Wellington Cup, and 6kgs more than his last victory, which was in the Wellington Cup the year before. There are enough reasons to stay away from him in this event.
Showcause is having his first start back since the New Zealand Cup and a reasonably successful Melbourne Spring. He has such a good record over 2400m and at Ellerslie it is somewhat surprising he was not aimed at defending his Avondale Cup, but clearly having a first start over a shorter distance was the preferred option. All of his Open Handicap victories have come carrying significantly less weight, but with decent ground underfoot he should be respected.
Cassini was probably outweighed in the City of Auckland and Wellington Cup, 55kg does appeal. The weather looks to be fine which should improve the track to the point it will really suit Cassini. The main concern is 1800m, it feels a bit on the sharp side, it would have been interesting to see what weight she might have got in the Avondale Cup, based on Ratings it might have been closer to what Booming is carrying, so this looks her best chance.
Back in Black, the 2000m victory in Hastings looked like a sign of better things to come, we have not see those things yet. As a seasoned campaigner it is surprising to see that this would be the biggest victory of his career. I guess you should respect some of the past results, but I am happy to leave him out.
Jetset Lad looks very well placed here. He will carry more weight than his Group 1 third in the Thorndon Mile, but the impressive finish combined with the strong record in New Plymouth makes it look like 1800m is exactly what will be required.
Riomoral recorded a lower grade win over 1950m, it is really hard to know what to make of that after most of his starts to date have been over 1200-1400m. You have to respect the win, and the weight reduction at this class, but this looks like a challenge.
Sircross has shown consistency over 1600m, 200m more here without many other changes looks like it will suit. He was a chance in each of his last three starts against similar competition, when you look at the added 200m it looks like he will be an even better chance here. Value at $16.
Minquar Qiam was fifth here two years back to Bruce Almighty, I remember really liking him that year and I can neither confirm nor deny having anything on him in the Auckland Cup. He has not quite reached that level again, but if you look at distance and weight this is the type of event which should see him at his peak competitiveness. Is it enough to see him improve on that fifth? I am not so sure.
I am a big Smoulder fan, many of her 19 starts have come over 1600m, but I always thought a bit more distance wouldn't be a challenge. Other than her run in last years Avondale Guineas her only other start over 1600m was in Australia. Both of her recent runs have been against similar or possibly stronger competition so she is very well placed here and 1800m appeals.
Bruce Almighty will be 48th up, his last win was here in July and he has already had 13 starts since then, his best result was two starts back for second. While this is tough I have written him off before only to see him come through. As a winner of 5 races here you cannot completely write him off, but at the same time he is hard to take on recent form.
Spartanicus has a sweet name and again looks like he should be in this type of race at this weight and distance. He is drawn wide which she see him in a similar position to where he produced a big finish last start. Worth considering, but it appears that there might be too much talent here for him.
Better Together looks to have some ability and should challenge with only 53kgs. Her best recent results have seen her handy from reasonable draws so barrier two is probably right where she wants to be, the distance looks right, her best results have come left handed. She is right in this. Currently paying $9 fixed odds feels about right but maybe a touch short to be considered great value. It is hard to leave her out.
The inform Star of the Show has won 3 straight and not been out of the top 3 this summer. All of that has come at a lower grades, but the reduced weight and big finishes make this seem like the right time to have a shot at this type of race. This is a major step up and will test the 4YO, but I can actually see it happening.
The Raconteur takes a while to get going, but has not shown the same consistency as he did a year ago. The only appeal is the light weight, but it would be a surprise to see him in the top four.
Pomellato is a horse who is closing in on that course specialist title with half of her wins coming here. She was in a far lower grade when she won over 1800m here a month ago. While she looks like a chance, if I was picking a light weight option I would probably look elsewhere.
Bruno is another stepping up who is hard to completely discount, because of weight and recent results. This is a good chance to show his potential if he runs, but a win would surprise.
The Pick
First - Smoulder - All things considered she is the one who looks the most likely to see winning.
Second - Sircross - Good value is hard to turn down, will be interesting to see the tote place odds.
Third - Jetset Lad - I can see why he is favoured here, but there are a lot of chances, it will be a good victory for whoever comes through.
Forth - Better Together - I think one of the lightweights will feature and it was really a toss up between her and Star of the Show, Cassini still deserves a look as well.
Best Value - Sircross ($16)
Longest Shot I can see winning - Bruce Almighty ($21, although it feels a bit short)
Avondale Cup
This time last year Showcause was the lock of the day in the Avondale Cup (... checking result, Ok, maybe not, but Darryl Bradley looks reasonably comfortable in the photo). He went on to run Second in the Auckland Cup, Innocent Lady took her Second here to Forth in the Auckland Cup, and Can't Keeper Down went on to run fifth in the Auckland Cup following her forth. A good show here is important (Trilogy 4th to 9th, Castle Heights 6th to 3rd, Tinsletown 8th to 11th), and does correlate to Auckland Cup success. Prior to last year the race was run at Avondale (in December), the last running was won by Ginga Dude, however in 2010 there was a Cup prelude run on this day, Heza Karma Karzi won and then ran last in the Auckland Cup, Everbright was second and ran 13th in the Cup and Six O'Clock News ran 3rd ended up 7th in that years Auckland Cup, it is evident that the Group 2 status makes this race much more attractive as a lead up to the Auckland Cup, every runner you will see on Saturday still holds a nomination to the Auckland Cup.
For your interest the lead ups for the last three Auckland Cup winners (Titch, Zavite, Spin Around) was Second in the Nathan's Memorial, 1st in a 2500m race in Melbourne, and Second in the Nathan's Memorial, so look out on Derby Day for our next Cup winner. Prize Lady ran in the equivalent of the Avondale Cup/Cup Prelude prior to both of her Auckland Cup Wins.
Booming is carrying a significant weight on Saturday, you can expect him to put forward a good effort over 3200m in the Auckland Cup, but this looks tough. Weight For Age races clearly appeal because of the relative weights his rivals will carry and he has not had a lot of luck this year, but efforts were better prior to Christmas and in Melbourne. Paying $10 on fixed odds seems right as I can't see him as favourite but you cannot rule him out.
The Jungle Boy loves Ellerslie! he enjoys the scenery, he must like the company and crowd, he has had nine starts here, about a quarter of his total races, it is just unfortunate that he doesn't like racing here. It is a mystery as to why, if you take Ellerslie out of it he has won 3 of 12 right handed, it is not like he has come up against amazing competition, or terrible conditions, or consistent bad draws, it is just a weird statistical thing. He has been consistent lately, was good in the Wellington Cup (his first placing at 2400m), but course and distance stats are a concern. This might be the day.
Current New Zealand Cup Champion Blood Brotha won in atrocious conditions. He was very quiet in the Wellington Cup at a point when 2400m seemed ideal. Looking back he has generally bounced back after a bad result so feel free to ignore that Wellington run. They should nickname this horse The Carousel as Michael Coleman will become the 8th Jockey to ride him in as many starts.
Castle Heights was third in the Auckland Cup last year following his 6th in this race. His third in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was in a reasonably similar race. Ellerslie has not been his favourite place to run and 2400m has not been his best distance, but it certainly looks like things are lining up nicely for him to overcome that on Saturday.
Single Minded won the City of Auckland Cup he is back tomorrow carrying only 1kg more. He has won four of his 10 starts, three of those have come this campaign, two over this distance. He was reasonably close in the Wellington Cup and can easily contend here.
Loose Change's only start at Ellerslie to date was a third in this race last year. He has consistently made ground toward the finish in starts over 2000m and should give the punter every chance. Maybe there are horses with more talent in this race but you should get an honest performance and a horse going forward not backwards when it matters. 2400m appeals and $10 looks like decent value.
Wisecrack will be ridden by James McDonald for the 3rd consecutive time and is searching for win number three from those races.He has won half of his starts and generally either wins or really loses, his best result when not winning is finishing 5 lengths from the winner. The last two non-victories involved a vet problem and a knock, the 11th in the Derby was on a very wet day, and the other poor performance looks like it was simply his second start. From that you can assume that he will win unless he gets bad luck.
Don Domingo is a horse who does not really appeal at this level, despite that the fact that he is only going to carry 53kgs. The good include, 53kg's, 3 wins at Ellerslie, he improves with racing, the unknown is the 2400m and the Open Handicap level does not appeal. He might be worth a flyer.
Yours has won 8 races and over 100k but this would be by far the most significant. It is hard not to be a snob but when a horse is racing at Open Handicap level with 48 career starts and none at Ellerslie you have to question the opposition. I would say you have to consider him on the basis of the close second to Titch, but if Titch was in this race would he be in your top four? probably not on current form. This is also his first start right handed.
Innocent Lady has all of the potential in the world. She actually reminds me a bit of Six O'Clock News, it is very impressive when it comes together, but a lot of the time it just doesn't. Her last couple of starts before this race last year were dubious, then she ran second here and fourth in the Auckland Cup. She is well weighted to make her look like value.
Maythehorsebemagic was racing over fences 6 months ago, however has looked pretty good as a stayer on the flat. This is a step up, but the recent record over 2400m and at Ellerslie makes this look tempting particularly given the 52.5kg which is basically nothing compared to what he carried as a hurdler. He will also go pretty well fresh too.
Top Spot has done pretty well with a couple starts at Open level, she will carry 2kg's less than the City of Auckland Cup third. She appears to like it with a bit of moisture around. Give her a chance.
Aruriteson really needs to show me something to make me think he can cut it at this level.
The Picks
First - Wisecrack - just looks like this will be a suitable situation for win number four.
Second - Single Minded - should battle well with wisecrack
Third - Maythehorsebemagic - Will stay well, ready to step up? 52kg is a temptation that is hard to pass on.
Forth - Loose Change - Honest performer who should go close
Best Value - Maythehorsebemagic ($21) - Another place chance at odds
Longest Shot I can see winning - Maythehorsebemagic
Thursday, 16 February 2012
Three Year Old Power Rankings - The Mid February Edition
It has been about three weeks since my last edition of the Power Rankings of New Zealand Three Year Olds, and although I have been making this a once a month gimmick I wanted to roll it out this week so I can squeeze in another edition before the New Zealand Derby, which is really what this had been about all of this time. I have been a little caught up in Derby hype over the past couple of weeks (17 Sleeps), I have already written about the contenders this week, but there are a number of top 3YO's who have dropped out of the Derby.
The Big Up's
Who has stepped up and shown something since the last edition?
Quintessential - Crushed em (by centimetres) at Trentham in the Desert Gold Stakes at Group 3 Level beating a handful of runners familiar with this list, followed up with a solid third in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Capital Diamond - Solid since before the 1000 Guineas, put up back to back seconds in the afore mentioned races.
Rock'n'Pop - Karaka 3YO Mile winner followed that up with a strong third at Open Weight For Age Group 1 Level at Waikato.
Knight's Tour - Added another win to his record, worked hard for it but it was not as challenging a race.
Bangalore Bullet - Won a couple of listed Guineas Races in the past few weeks down south.
Silent Achiever - Continues her rise up the rankings.
Zurella - Winner of the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic to answer some questions.
Our Famous Eve - Second in the Royal Stakes, she did herself proud with her effort in stronger company at WFA level, her fifth was not far off second, but still a distance out of first.
Downer's
Who has not performed up to their ranking?
Testa Secret - After the solid Eight Carat Classic she was less than solid in her next two, she might be a bit tired after a busy few weeks.
Ocean Park - Not a major downer, still a lot of hype and Derby favouritism, but not flying as high as a month ago.
Planet Rock - Thought the forth in the Sir Tristram Fillies was good, so not a major downer, but a win there may have cemented first spot.
Chicharita - Was on the verge before her disappointing run in the Sir Tristram Fillies.
Abeautifulred - had been very solid before the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Sangster - I am happy to forgive the run, after whatever the incident was at the 450m mark it looked like he was eased home. I would have liked to see more, but I expect he will continue to improve with distance.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Distill (9), Duckworth Lewis (10)
Honourable Mention:
Distill (hardest omission, he is a Group 1 winner after all, but we will not see him again in New Zealand), Duckworth Lewis (will be great as a 4YO if we don't see him again at age 3), Burgundy (still unsure what to make of him), Artistic (continues to race in solid form), Quintessential (big riser), Nashville, Xanadu, Shuka (always seems to come up against Ocean Park and Silent Achiever), Our Famous Eve.
Rankings
Number 10 - Capital Diamond (N/A) - Has looked very strong over the last couple of starts with seconds in very strong fillies races. Is Oaks nominated where $10 looks good value if she continues her consistency and even shows some improvement.
Number 9 - Ocean Park (5) - Still a lot of hype and a great shot at the Derby. The loss to Silent Achiever was not that bad, he will be highly backed on Derby Day and should be ready for 2400m at that point.
Number 8 - Sangster (2) - A big drop, it is probably undeserved and is more of a reaction to the form of other runners on this list. Something went wrong on Saturday (in a race he was never really a winning chance in anyway) and I am sure he will improve with more distance and more racing and climb this list again.
Number 7 - Knight's Tour (6) - Was set for a rise in these rankings until the word of his injury spread. It is hard not to feel sorry for the connections who had a horse who looked like a potential Group 1 winner and are now faced with uncertainty as to when his career will resume. Obviously you just have to hope he comes back in the same form.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (1) - I can't penalise the 4th in the Sir Tristram Fillies too hard, that was a tough race and quality field.
Number 5 - Zurella (N/A) - Back up in the rankings after the Sir Tristram Fillies race victory which included the powerful, Planet Rock and Artistic, as well as up and coming Quintessential and Capital Diamond.
Number 4 - Silent Achiever (8) - Now we know she is headed for the New Zealand Derby (or maybe not), she has beaten her main rival over 2000m and continues to show a lot of finishing speed. We will probably get another look at her on Avondale Guineas Day before the Derby where she will be a major threat to take home the prize.
Number 3 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana. It is hard to know when he will next race, couldn't see his name in nominations on either side of the Tasman or find any news stories.
Number 2 - Anabandana (4) - Back to Racing in Australia, wasn't a winner, but possibly lost to a very good Filly in Soft Sand. She looks like she will continue to be consistent and a threat to win in Australia this autumn.
Number 1 - Rock'n'Pop (7) - I agonised about who should really be number one on this list. Antonio Lombardo just hasn't raced for a while, an Aussie win may have seen Anabandana here, the resume of Silent Achiever is just not strong enough. Rock'n'Pop was dominant in the Karaka 3YO Mile and looked very good at Group 1 Level over 2000m.
Value Derby Proposition: Zurella ($6) - I just feel like she is closer to the Silent Achiever/Ocean Park ($3.80) level than this.
Long shot Derby Proposition: Joy's Choice ($51) (longest shot I can see winning at this point if all horses with odds were to start)
Value Oaks Proposition: Mosh Pit ($16) or possibly Quintessential ($12)- Lots of value this far out from the race, but at this point it is probably hard to separate this filly from Artistic ($10), Capital Diamond ($10), Chicharita ($6 - seems way too short), and Planet Rock ($8), Zurella and Silent Achiever are at $6, but who knows if they will run in this and the derby.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Abeautifulred ($61) has been consistent enough to throw a spanner in the works.
The Big Up's
Who has stepped up and shown something since the last edition?
Quintessential - Crushed em (by centimetres) at Trentham in the Desert Gold Stakes at Group 3 Level beating a handful of runners familiar with this list, followed up with a solid third in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Capital Diamond - Solid since before the 1000 Guineas, put up back to back seconds in the afore mentioned races.
Rock'n'Pop - Karaka 3YO Mile winner followed that up with a strong third at Open Weight For Age Group 1 Level at Waikato.
Knight's Tour - Added another win to his record, worked hard for it but it was not as challenging a race.
Bangalore Bullet - Won a couple of listed Guineas Races in the past few weeks down south.
Silent Achiever - Continues her rise up the rankings.
Zurella - Winner of the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic to answer some questions.
Our Famous Eve - Second in the Royal Stakes, she did herself proud with her effort in stronger company at WFA level, her fifth was not far off second, but still a distance out of first.
Downer's
Who has not performed up to their ranking?
Testa Secret - After the solid Eight Carat Classic she was less than solid in her next two, she might be a bit tired after a busy few weeks.
Ocean Park - Not a major downer, still a lot of hype and Derby favouritism, but not flying as high as a month ago.
Planet Rock - Thought the forth in the Sir Tristram Fillies was good, so not a major downer, but a win there may have cemented first spot.
Chicharita - Was on the verge before her disappointing run in the Sir Tristram Fillies.
Abeautifulred - had been very solid before the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Sangster - I am happy to forgive the run, after whatever the incident was at the 450m mark it looked like he was eased home. I would have liked to see more, but I expect he will continue to improve with distance.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Distill (9), Duckworth Lewis (10)
Honourable Mention:
Distill (hardest omission, he is a Group 1 winner after all, but we will not see him again in New Zealand), Duckworth Lewis (will be great as a 4YO if we don't see him again at age 3), Burgundy (still unsure what to make of him), Artistic (continues to race in solid form), Quintessential (big riser), Nashville, Xanadu, Shuka (always seems to come up against Ocean Park and Silent Achiever), Our Famous Eve.
Rankings
Number 10 - Capital Diamond (N/A) - Has looked very strong over the last couple of starts with seconds in very strong fillies races. Is Oaks nominated where $10 looks good value if she continues her consistency and even shows some improvement.
Number 9 - Ocean Park (5) - Still a lot of hype and a great shot at the Derby. The loss to Silent Achiever was not that bad, he will be highly backed on Derby Day and should be ready for 2400m at that point.
Number 8 - Sangster (2) - A big drop, it is probably undeserved and is more of a reaction to the form of other runners on this list. Something went wrong on Saturday (in a race he was never really a winning chance in anyway) and I am sure he will improve with more distance and more racing and climb this list again.
Number 7 - Knight's Tour (6) - Was set for a rise in these rankings until the word of his injury spread. It is hard not to feel sorry for the connections who had a horse who looked like a potential Group 1 winner and are now faced with uncertainty as to when his career will resume. Obviously you just have to hope he comes back in the same form.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (1) - I can't penalise the 4th in the Sir Tristram Fillies too hard, that was a tough race and quality field.
Number 5 - Zurella (N/A) - Back up in the rankings after the Sir Tristram Fillies race victory which included the powerful, Planet Rock and Artistic, as well as up and coming Quintessential and Capital Diamond.
Number 4 - Silent Achiever (8) - Now we know she is headed for the New Zealand Derby (or maybe not), she has beaten her main rival over 2000m and continues to show a lot of finishing speed. We will probably get another look at her on Avondale Guineas Day before the Derby where she will be a major threat to take home the prize.
Number 3 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana. It is hard to know when he will next race, couldn't see his name in nominations on either side of the Tasman or find any news stories.
Number 2 - Anabandana (4) - Back to Racing in Australia, wasn't a winner, but possibly lost to a very good Filly in Soft Sand. She looks like she will continue to be consistent and a threat to win in Australia this autumn.
Number 1 - Rock'n'Pop (7) - I agonised about who should really be number one on this list. Antonio Lombardo just hasn't raced for a while, an Aussie win may have seen Anabandana here, the resume of Silent Achiever is just not strong enough. Rock'n'Pop was dominant in the Karaka 3YO Mile and looked very good at Group 1 Level over 2000m.
Value Derby Proposition: Zurella ($6) - I just feel like she is closer to the Silent Achiever/Ocean Park ($3.80) level than this.
Long shot Derby Proposition: Joy's Choice ($51) (longest shot I can see winning at this point if all horses with odds were to start)
Value Oaks Proposition: Mosh Pit ($16) or possibly Quintessential ($12)- Lots of value this far out from the race, but at this point it is probably hard to separate this filly from Artistic ($10), Capital Diamond ($10), Chicharita ($6 - seems way too short), and Planet Rock ($8), Zurella and Silent Achiever are at $6, but who knows if they will run in this and the derby.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Abeautifulred ($61) has been consistent enough to throw a spanner in the works.
Tuesday, 14 February 2012
Who should be the Derby Favourite?
It is about halfway through February, the New Zealand Derby takes place on the third of March at Ellerslie. Two years ago Katie Lee was a class three year old, but this race was a bit too long and it would come down to a battle between Zarzuela and Monaco Consul (as far as the book makers were concerned, although Katie Lee was kept safe), as it turned out Military Move was too strong. Last year everyone knew Jimmy Choux was the top three year old, some suspected the distance would test, but his class prevailed. The point is those races were reasonably clear heading into them, they may not have played out the way that people expected them to, but people were generally talking about a couple of options as potential winners.
This year is far different, the odds are frequently shifting, contenders are battling other contenders on a weekly basis, favourites are going down and at this stage there is probably about seven horses who could win and you would not be shocked. There are still 22 horses in the nomination list, and that list does not include Sangster or Dowager Queen who you might have expected to be contenders in November last year. Lets have a look at some of the nominations and why you can make a case for them as a potential derby winner.
Silent Achiever
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (in the Waikato Guineas over 2000m) Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes over 2100m at Ellerslie), Jerobarm (over 1600m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Planet Rock (Eight Carat Classic over 1600m at Ellerslie)
The win over Ocean Park (then derby favourite) was the one that really cemented Silent Achiever as a horse capable of racing at this level. She has really hit the line strongly each time she steps in the distance which makes the 2400m tempting.
Ocean Park
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Shuka (in the Great Northern Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m), Joys Choice (over 1500m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Knights Tour (Great Northern Guineas)
Thus far the couple of Victories over Shuka are the most impressive on his resume, however his win in the Wellington Stakes was arguably one of the most impressive victories by a three year old this season, he did beat a strong field that day (just no other nominees). The run for second behind Knight's Tour included a finish which would have seen him leading if the race was 50m longer. The second behind Silent Achiever at Te Rapa was good, he didn't really look that comfortable throughout the trip and finished off strongly, but Silent Achiever was simply outstanding, she did a fantastic job to find the hole and catch Ocean Park.
Rock'n'Pop
Current Odds - $6.00
Other noms beaten: Shuka (2000 Guineas over 1600m)
Beaten by: Shuka (Over 1400m at Ashburton)
Is a Group 1 winner who has also placed at Group 1 level at Open level. He came back with a 5th at Tauranga, he then followed up with a strong performances and finish in the Karaka 3YO mile and that 3rd in the Group 1 Darci Brahma International over 2000m. The third last Saturday was a great indication of talent, he didn't get a lot of favours and really hard to work hard, he showed a lot of speed and made up a lot of distance over the final couple of hundred meters.
Knight's Tour
Current Odds -Now out of derby nominations.
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka (Great Northen Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m)
Beaten by: None
Knight's Tour shot into contention with a surprise victory in the Great Northern Guineas on Boxing Day, he followed this up with a hard fought victory on Karaka Millions night over 1600m. He has looked good to date, the win over Ocean Park is probably his best to date when both finished strongly beating a decent guineas field.
Zurella
Current odds - $6
Other noms beaten: Planet Rock (Sir Tristram Fillies Classic at Te Rapa over 2000m) Joy's Choice (Eulogy Stakes over 1600m at Ellerslie), Joy's Choice, Roamin, (at Te Rapa over 1400m)
Beaten by:
The victory in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic was huge. She was unable to finish off the 2000m strongly in the Royal stakes, that may have been because of the conditions, or because it was her first attempt, however none of that matters now, she beat a class field on the weekend and won in style over 2000m.
Shuka
Current odds - $10
Other noms beaten: Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas), Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes), Rock'n'Pop (over 1400m at Ashburton)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever (Championship Stakes), Knight's Tour, Ocean Park (Great Northern Guineas) Rock'n'Pop (2000 Guineas)
Faced a lot of the contenders and has typically been middle of the pack (relative to the others). He has a good record overall and in bigger races but has not really been able to overcome the elite (who are more favoured than him for the race). Looking at his recent performances over 2000m and 2100m I am not concerned about his ability to get 2400m, but he hasn't really showed that the added 400m/300m would have put him in a position where he would have beaten those horses.
Carrick
Current odds - $14
Other noms beaten: None
Beaten by: None
Will be looking to see how he goes against some of the other noms prior to the derby. He has looked solid to date, but maybe has not faced some of the competition of the other noms.
Planet Rock - is now out of the Derby.
Barney
Current odds - $18
Other noms beaten: Nine Pin (over 2100m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park, Shuka (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever, Shuka, Viking Ace (Championship Stakes)
$18 odds seem a bit low, but it is hard to argue he is not the next best, or at least in the next best group.
It certainly appears overall that this race will come down to a lot of those top nominees, there is certainly a number of cases you can build for each of them, obviously the removal of Planet Rock and Knight's Tour since I began writing this opens things up slightly for others who would have been considered longer shots, but the top four are very close. By looking at some of the past few derby's it is clear longer shots are never out of this race, it would be wise to look closely at some of the performances in lower grade races of some of the runners to see if you can find your outsider. The Avondale Guineas this weekend is always a great indicator as to how horses may go in the Derby, it is definitely one to tune in for.
This year is far different, the odds are frequently shifting, contenders are battling other contenders on a weekly basis, favourites are going down and at this stage there is probably about seven horses who could win and you would not be shocked. There are still 22 horses in the nomination list, and that list does not include Sangster or Dowager Queen who you might have expected to be contenders in November last year. Lets have a look at some of the nominations and why you can make a case for them as a potential derby winner.
Silent Achiever
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (in the Waikato Guineas over 2000m) Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes over 2100m at Ellerslie), Jerobarm (over 1600m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Planet Rock (Eight Carat Classic over 1600m at Ellerslie)
The win over Ocean Park (then derby favourite) was the one that really cemented Silent Achiever as a horse capable of racing at this level. She has really hit the line strongly each time she steps in the distance which makes the 2400m tempting.
Ocean Park
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Shuka (in the Great Northern Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m), Joys Choice (over 1500m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Knights Tour (Great Northern Guineas)
Thus far the couple of Victories over Shuka are the most impressive on his resume, however his win in the Wellington Stakes was arguably one of the most impressive victories by a three year old this season, he did beat a strong field that day (just no other nominees). The run for second behind Knight's Tour included a finish which would have seen him leading if the race was 50m longer. The second behind Silent Achiever at Te Rapa was good, he didn't really look that comfortable throughout the trip and finished off strongly, but Silent Achiever was simply outstanding, she did a fantastic job to find the hole and catch Ocean Park.
Rock'n'Pop
Current Odds - $6.00
Other noms beaten: Shuka (2000 Guineas over 1600m)
Beaten by: Shuka (Over 1400m at Ashburton)
Is a Group 1 winner who has also placed at Group 1 level at Open level. He came back with a 5th at Tauranga, he then followed up with a strong performances and finish in the Karaka 3YO mile and that 3rd in the Group 1 Darci Brahma International over 2000m. The third last Saturday was a great indication of talent, he didn't get a lot of favours and really hard to work hard, he showed a lot of speed and made up a lot of distance over the final couple of hundred meters.
Knight's Tour
Current Odds -Now out of derby nominations.
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka (Great Northen Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m)
Beaten by: None
Knight's Tour shot into contention with a surprise victory in the Great Northern Guineas on Boxing Day, he followed this up with a hard fought victory on Karaka Millions night over 1600m. He has looked good to date, the win over Ocean Park is probably his best to date when both finished strongly beating a decent guineas field.
Zurella
Current odds - $6
Other noms beaten: Planet Rock (Sir Tristram Fillies Classic at Te Rapa over 2000m) Joy's Choice (Eulogy Stakes over 1600m at Ellerslie), Joy's Choice, Roamin, (at Te Rapa over 1400m)
Beaten by:
The victory in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic was huge. She was unable to finish off the 2000m strongly in the Royal stakes, that may have been because of the conditions, or because it was her first attempt, however none of that matters now, she beat a class field on the weekend and won in style over 2000m.
Shuka
Current odds - $10
Other noms beaten: Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas), Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes), Rock'n'Pop (over 1400m at Ashburton)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever (Championship Stakes), Knight's Tour, Ocean Park (Great Northern Guineas) Rock'n'Pop (2000 Guineas)
Faced a lot of the contenders and has typically been middle of the pack (relative to the others). He has a good record overall and in bigger races but has not really been able to overcome the elite (who are more favoured than him for the race). Looking at his recent performances over 2000m and 2100m I am not concerned about his ability to get 2400m, but he hasn't really showed that the added 400m/300m would have put him in a position where he would have beaten those horses.
Carrick
Current odds - $14
Other noms beaten: None
Beaten by: None
Will be looking to see how he goes against some of the other noms prior to the derby. He has looked solid to date, but maybe has not faced some of the competition of the other noms.
Planet Rock - is now out of the Derby.
Barney
Current odds - $18
Other noms beaten: Nine Pin (over 2100m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park, Shuka (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever, Shuka, Viking Ace (Championship Stakes)
$18 odds seem a bit low, but it is hard to argue he is not the next best, or at least in the next best group.
It certainly appears overall that this race will come down to a lot of those top nominees, there is certainly a number of cases you can build for each of them, obviously the removal of Planet Rock and Knight's Tour since I began writing this opens things up slightly for others who would have been considered longer shots, but the top four are very close. By looking at some of the past few derby's it is clear longer shots are never out of this race, it would be wise to look closely at some of the performances in lower grade races of some of the runners to see if you can find your outsider. The Avondale Guineas this weekend is always a great indicator as to how horses may go in the Derby, it is definitely one to tune in for.
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