April Edition 3YO Power Rankings

I wanted to wait for the Australian Derby before preparing this version of the power rankings in the hope that there was not question over number one, despite a strong effort Silent Achiever ran a close up 6th. That looked like a two horse race heading in but Laser Hawk finished third. That may be the end of the season for the New Zealand Derby winner, she will have earned a rest whenever that comes and I look forward to seeing her again in the Spring.

Roger James would have been disappointed with that result. I am sure that he, like many others, thought she had what it took to win that race, however the day was not bad overall for Roger James as he uncovered a potential Oaks contender with Full of Spirit getting it done at Group 3 level with James McDonald on board in the 2000m Patinak Farm Adrian Knox Stakes. Full of Spirit is currently second favourite in a small field for this weekends Australian Oaks. The 3YO daughter of Flying Spur has come out of the woodwork recently, after winning on debut, she finished 7th in both the 1000 Guineas and the strong Eight Carat Classic, and continued to improve before winning her last start before the trip to Sydney.

The last edition of the Power Rankings came out following the Derby, but prior to the Oaks. Given the strength of that race it should have and effect on these rankings. We should also get a good sight of some of these runners over the Winter as it has been confirmed that at least Artistic, and Nashville will be heading to Queensland, and likely other top contenders too.

Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Knights Tour (7), Antonio Lombardo (10)

Honourable Mention
Chicharita (HM, I see she is in Australia, it will be interesting to see how she goes), Knight's Tour (7, hopefully he ends up in Australia, I know I read about that as a potential plan when he first injured himself), Capital Diamond (HM), Xanadu, Duckworth Lewis (HM), Travolta (HM), Joy's Choice(HM), Nashville (HM, and another off to Australia), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Poste Restante, Glad (HM)


Number 10 - Quintessential (HM) - Toss up between this filly and Xanadu for this last spot. Both were third in a Group 1 last start, both races included impressive fields, but I think her performance in the Oaks and overall season is just stronger.

Number 9 - Burgundy (7) - Really looking forward to seeing him when he next races. I think he has now found his niche around the sprint distances. He has all the talent as we saw early in his career and hopefully he will continue to improve at age 4.

 
Number 8 - Full of Spirit (N/A) - A bit of hype around this runner, a Group 3 in Australia is an accomplishment, she will really climb these chats with a win in the Oaks. 


Number 7 - Carrick (5) - I have not read what the plan is for this Derby place getter, I don't see him on the list of exported horses, so I assume he is having some time off in New Zealand at this point.
 
Number 6 - Planet Rock (3) - Still not sure the Jockey change for the Oaks was the wisest choice, however I do feel that she was somewhat unlucky in that race and had to expend all of that energy early.  

Number 5 - Rock'n'Pop (2) - I look forward to seeing him continue at age four in Australia. He looks such a strong colt, I am not quite sure what his niche will be because he has shown so much talent over all distances so far.
 
Number 4 - Ocean Park (9) - Unlucky year, was the derby favourite until withdrawal because of track uncertainty. Backed up that decision with a bold second in Sydney only to strike more bad luck leading into the Australian Derby. He appears a very strong 3YO and will possibly continue to age four. Not sure what his targets might be but I imagine he can put on a show in a race like the Windsor Park Plate over 1600m if he ends up there.

Number 3 - Zurella (4) - Out performed my expectations in the Oaks, but combined with a strong derby she is well deserving of a position this high on this list.

Number 2 - Artistic (6) - What is a bigger accomplishment, winning the Oaks or running second in a Group 1 in Australia? I already had her ahead of Ocean Park so she deserves to stay here. She has really built well over the season, she has been super consistent, and she seems to be getting better over more distance, she will be a threat in Queensland.

Number 1 - Silent Achiever (1) - A strong third in the Rosehill Guineas where I feel she was actually a tad unlucky in the big field they assembled. Her 6th in the Australian Guineas is disappointing from the perspective that she was favourite, but ordinarily is still an achievement (didn't Jimmy Choux run 6th in that race last year?)

Three Year Old Power Rankings March Edition

Many things have changed in the last month since the February Power Rankings,we have seen the running of the New Zealand Derby, the Sunline Vase, the Lowland Stakes, and the Mr Tiz Trophy. We have seen a possible return to prominence from Burgundy, and a surprising lack of prominence from Antonio Lombardo, as well as the retirement of Anabandana and Ocean Park heading off in search of his derby across the ditch.

Where does that put us in the Power Rankings?

The Anabandana situation is a mystery, she was second on this list last month, and although she would have dropped following her second, and ultimately final, start in Australia I didn't expect to see a retirement. I guess, much like Distil she will have to drop from the rankings, because if not racing I guess she doesn't qualify. What an outstanding career!

I have really loved this class of fillies, and we are looking at a great Oaks this weekend, we may see another filly on top of this list, but Ocean park has a chance to take a big step up this list as he taking on the Randwick Guineas this weekend.

Not sure what to make of Burgundy after the weekend, which is becoming like his nickname, he was probably never going to win a Derby, after watching the run on the weekend I am unsure if he was really ever going to win a guineas either, it was only a month ago when I wrote " I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana." It would have been awesome if I was writing about Burgundy, but I was actually talking about Antonio Lombardo. This really creates a puzzle. Burgundy looked very good, maybe he was always going to be a 1200m type horse. As it turns out this was the thinking from the connections as well. (although that article indicates it wont be in the thought process, do you think an Easter Handicap is too much of a stretch? we are still waiting on our first 3YO Group 1 winner at open level). Antonio Lombardo didn't really look as good as he did early in the Spring, maybe it was the dead track which had been raced on 24 times that week, or the extra weight he was carrying but he just didn't seem to have that same closing speed, did he do enough to remain in the top 10.

Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Anabandana (2) Sangster (8) Capital Diamond (10)

Honourable Mention
Anabandana (2, for reasons discussed above), Sangster (8, hard to leave out, his starts this prep have been over 1400m and 1600m, I would expect to see him back in this list once we get closer to 2000m ), Chicharita (Very narrow miss, testament to the quality of the 3YO's we are seeing), Capital Diamond (10, Fought on well in the wet, still a possible Oaks contender, 2400m should not be an issue), Duckworth Lewis (HM), Quintessential (HM), Travolta, Joy's Choice, Nashville (HM), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Glad (not currently Oak's nominated but Sleeper Alert!)

Number 10 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - Would have been hard to leave him off, I really expect to see him bounce back over his next start. He didn't look his best on the weekend, but I expect to see him back to it soon.


Number 9 - Ocean Park (9) - Big expectations around this Colt and what he can do in Sydney.


Number 8 - Knight's Tour (7) - What could have been? Not sure when he is coming back, hopefully he comes back as good has be looked before the injury.

Number 7 - Burgundy (HM) - Back up in the rankings following an impressive 1200m victory in a listed race the last day of Auckland Cup week. 

Number 6 - Artistic (HM) - Was her win the Sunline Vase better than Capital Diamond's second in the Lowland Stakes. The conditions were certainly better, it will be interesting to find out this Saturday.

Number 5 - Carrick (N/A) - Close up and fighting third in the Derby,  he is probably working with less talent wise than the first two on this list, but he showed a great effort and should continue to contend when the distance gets above 2000m.

Number 4 - Zurella (5) - Was good in the Derby for 5th in a race which probably wasn't ideal. She will want a dryer track in the Oaks, and although it feels (to me anyway) like there is still a question mark over 2400m she may challenge based on talent alone.

Number 3 - Planet Rock (6) - Back to her best when winning on Derby Day in the Hawkes Bay. She is an interesting one, I had to drop her down the list last time because she had two consecutive fourths, however I really felt that the Royal Stakes was justified because of the backing up from the week before and it was her first 2000m start. The following start in the Sir Tristram fillies I felt there were excuses, but it was maybe just not her day, she also finished behind three very good fillies. She is clearly class and can really prove it by beating a top Oak's field this weekend.

Number 2 - Rock'n'Pop (1) - Is it possible I have actually underrated him all year? How do you underrate a Group 1 winner? But he ran out a very strong Derby, prior to this the 3rd at Group 1 level was again excellent. The only time he didn't really fire was on a slow track in a meaningless race. I am still not even sure the distance or conditions for the Derby were really ideal, but he just showed his considerable talent.

Number 1 - Silent Achiever (4) - What more can I say? no, seriously, I have probably written about 5000+ words about her since December. She was amazing on the 3rd, it was a great win. It will be great to see what she can do in Australia. Is she as good as Jimmy Choux was last year? hard to say, I will need to think about that. I feel another breakdown coming on (although I was wrong about the last one I wrote).  She is a different horse than Jimmy Choux, she was always going to get better as we got up to 2400m, but maybe we will see them against each other next year over 2000m, that could be interesting. My gut says that Jimmy is better, but even if she is only as good as King's Rose, we are still looking at what will be an interesting 4YO year.

Value Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed, although I can say I will be Glad to see them when they are.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed

James McDonald's Quest for the Cup week Sweep

This is now a story. There was always a possibility it would become one and in some ways the two Group 1's McDonald has won were the easier of the two he will face this week. They were the ones he was probably expected to win. In other ways they were harder, there was enough that went wrong before and during those races that the victories were remarkable. He will ride Scarlett Lady and Rollout the Carpet on Saturday in his quest to sweep the Auckland Cup week Group 1's.

James McDonald calls Ellerslie his favourite track. I don't think anyone would disagree with him. Durham Town, Silent Achiever, Fix, Peridot, Between the Beats, and Shez Sensational have won this Auckland Cup week with him on board. Fix was another in a long line of wins in the first race of the day at Ellerslie yesterday. His strike rate is currently a ridiculous 4.41, that should mean with the nine rides he currently has booked for Saturday there are two winners in that group, I am sure the ones he wants the most are the Diamond Stakes and the New Zealand Stakes.

The New Zealand Derby last Saturday, James McDonald was riding Silent Achiever. The ground was possibly not as suitable as they would have liked, there was not a lot of pace in the race for Silent Achiever a horse who typically likes to race towards the back of the pack. It was evident from the relief shown by Roger James when they interviewed him after the victory that although he felt he had the horse with the most talent, he was not sure if things were lining up exactly how he wanted. After the race James McDonald admitted he didn't ride exactly to instructions and Silent Achiever slipped leaving the gates, judging from the after race comments analysts felt that possibly Silent Achiever hit the front earlier than she normally would have. What I liked about the ride was the point about 1400m to go when she was third from last and James McDonald moved her up, three wide, but closer to the pace. As they hit the 800m mark there is probably only 9 runners ahead of him, it was an excellent place for him to be when they started the sprint for home. As it was she won comfortably, but if he had been further back who knows, maybe she gets blocked or simply out sprinted. He really seemed to always have that race under his control from about 350m, every time another runner battled closer he asked her for more and she gave it.

In the Auckland Cup yesterday, as trainer Allan Sharrock said in his interview after the race "what else could go wrong" (in the video in the link, you need to sign up to view it, but it is free). He even basically said that the rain that had started about an hour before the race had put him off having a big bet on the horse because of the uncertainty in the conditions. Given what we saw on Saturday it would be hard not to be concerned at that point. During the running of the race George Simon made several comments about the position of Shez Sensational. "the favourite's under a ride" was his call as James McDonald went to work on her about 450m to go, he was probably one of the first Jockeys to make a move in the race. He then had to work a bit to find a hole, but Shez Sensational responded when he finally did. George Simon mentions she is warming up as they pass the 300m mark, but she really hits her stride with about 200m to go and just had too much top speed chasing down Spiro on the line.

Clearly we are looking at a very talented Filly and Mare, but everything didn't go their way, and those were very strong rides to allow the horses to show their best.

Now the question remains, can he go four for four?

The next Auckland Cup week Group 1 is the first Group 1 for the Two year olds the Diamond Stakes over 1200m. James McDonald is riding equal second favourite Rollout the carpet. There is a lot of talent in this race when you look at Choice Bro, Warhorse, Travino, Silk Pins and Croatia amongst others.

Choice Bro has shown eye catching finishes in the Karaka Million (fourth) and winning over Ockhams Razor last start at Taranaki. He has had the benefit of good draws to date and has performed best on a good track, he may not have either on Saturday. The blinkers which came on last start seemed to make a difference. He will be finishing big, but probably down the outside as opposed to the inside as in recent starts.

Warhorse is having his first start in over a month, however he has tended to race with these kind of gaps to date in his career so that should not effect him. A Group 3 winner with talent, he really charged home in the Karaka Million. He is already establishing a strong record at Ellerslie and his win there on New Years day was on a rain effected track. He has the benefit of a better draw so might be able to start his run from a handier position this time.

Travino had his first start back in New Zealand in the Matamata Slipper two weeks ago. The dead track gave him only his second non-win in the New Zealand since his first start (on a slow track). That was his first start in about 6 weeks, his wins have come with 14days, 14days and 21days rest, so expect a better showing here. He has drawn barrier one which should allow him to stay handy $9 fixed odds seems pretty good value if the rain stays away.

Croatia is having his third start. After winning on debut he was able to show a big finish to behind Irish Rebel and Magic Shaft. He has to be confided a contender here.

Mai Guru is having his first start since his fifth in the Karaka Million. I was slightly surprised by that fifth, he seemed to outperform other horses who I might have expected better from. This race is just stacked and he will have to show improvement to finish ahead of Silk Pins, Choice Bro, and Warhorse.

Roof of Reckoning is a maiden runner who was able to show something at Matamata, hard to know if possibly wet ground might help. He looks reasonably talented, but there are some classy runners to beat here.

King Zeus is having his second start and will go from barrier 6. He seemed to improve with trialing and was favourite in his first start. He was beaten by Fix over 1000m, who went on to have a good win on Auckland Cup day. King Zeus showed good fight but was worn down late. I suspect he may be fitter for the run and 1200m may suit.

Rollout the Carpet for James McDonald has drawn 11, but is coming off a form line which looks the same in the race book (1 and 1 been the results of his last two runs). The second win was in the Matamata Breeders Stakes at Group 2 level. She has beaten the fillies, so the question becomes can she beat the boys too? She is good and has looked it in her last two starts. Wetness underfoot does not appear to be an issue. Barrier number 11 may not be a problem if she gets out as well as she has recently, she will want to be handy and in a position to lead them home.

Seleno was very eye catching at New Plymouth last start, she was wide and back and simply flew home. If the track is wet it will suit and you suspect that 2nd up may help. The draw should suit and if she is closer to them starting her run, look out!

Silk Pins was great in the Karaka Million. Before the Karaka Million her record is deceiving, she didn't get a lot of luck in those races. Was third in the Matamata breeders stakes and didn't look as good that day. Happy to give her a chance, but I have a concern on wet ground based on the slow track  New Years day at Ellerslie.

Soriano is currently undefeated. She was a winner late last week at Te Rapa. She is a bit of an enigma here, the win looked very good, but there is a lot of solid exposed form here.

Coat du Roan was good when 6th at Taranaki, was also unlucky when caught up by Ockham's Razor. Throw that race out and there is less to go on. She is almost certainly better than a $41 chance, but you could only take her on potential. Chateauneuf Dupape ran third in this race last year, as that is in the Rhone region maybe a horse called Coat du Roan can feature this year.

The Picks (I am assuming this forecast rain clears and we get back to a good or dead track)
First - Warhorse - This looks much more suitable than the Karaka Million.

Second - Rollout the Carpet - Looks talented, I have spent 1,500 words explaining how this could be Jame McDonald's week.
Third - Choice Bro - Like Rollout the Carpet the draw is a concern, there is no doubt of the talent. He will be coming on at the end.
Fourth - Seleno - Big finish, if she was 6th instead of 9th back she may have won, she will be closer from barrier 2.

In the New Zealand Stakes James McDonald will ride Scarlett Lady against a strong Group 1 field. Veyron is certainly the most dangerous after winning back to back Group 1's and showing that the step to middle distance is not so big after-all on Boxing Day, he loves this track and will be very hard to beat.

Veyron all but eliminated middle distance questions on Boxing Day. I also think his build up to this race has been far better than the build up to boxing day. He will handle all tracks so weather concerns should not be an issue.

Hold it Harvey is always consistent at Group 1 level. He came for them late when stepping back to 1600m at Otaki and was second to Shez Sensational at Te Rapa before that. This is a rare trip to Ellerslie and right handed, but he is hitting the strongest part of his campaign and he is better than when he was last here boxing day 2010.

Doctor Fremantle was good for a surprising third here on Boxing Day.  He didn't get a lot of breaks last time in Hamilton. This is a big ask but he is capable of running in the money.

Showcause has basically been weighted out of the Open Handicap level (although it would have been interesting to see him yesterday). Although he didn't come back the strongest at New Plymouth that is not surprising. He is yet to feature second up either, a stat which is countered by his strong Ellerslie record. He gets better third up, and you might expect he can do something here but not enough to win.

Vosne Romanee won this race two years ago and surprised for a place last year. His last two starts have actually shown a bit of a (relative) resurgence in the nine year old gelding. Don't completely dismiss for old times sake, but there are a lot of better places for your money.

Riomoral has been a big improver over the last couple of months. WFA Group 1 seems a bit optimistic, but the steps towards middle distance have suited him.

Postmans Daughter probably needed a run between the Darci Brahma and this and she got in over 1600m in a Group 1 at Otaki. That was never going to be the ideal race for her but this is definitely where she will look at home. She seems to respond better to 2000m+ and going right handed, drawn barrier 1 will help too. This race looks perfectly set up for her, but it is hard to see her beating Veyron or Scarlett Lady.

Lady Kipling performed very strongly over 1600m at Otaki. She had her first win at Ellerslie two starts back but has twice been fourth at Group 1 level. She has been very consistent recently and the move up to 2000m should put her in a good position.

Scarlett Lady will face her first big test since returning from injury. If this race was run in the spring she probably would have been sole favourite. She has had 1 run back for 1 win but this is tougher. 2000m will surely suit her and she wont mind any rain. She has always been consistent, it was really unfortunate to see injury derailing her spring because she really could have made some noise in Melbourne last year.

Inferno is making her first trip to the big city following a pretty strong run in Matamata last start. This will be a major test but the distance should suit and around 8th up should see her peaking. It is a big ask.

Shuka is trying to become the first 3YO to win an Open level Group 1 this season. Twice in his career he has backed up in under a week and he has run second both times. The step back to 2000m should assist his chances. He is an absolute winning chance here, but yet again he might just be facing too much talent, which has been the story of his career to date.

I hate to go chalk, but it is hard to look past the favourites in this race. Who will win? toss a coin, it could be that close. We have not seen a big Group 1 shock this year, The Party Stand was somewhat of a shock winning this last year.

The Picks
First - Veyron - It just feels like he has put in the work to establish himself as favourite. Winning back to back Group 1's. The 2000m looks right for him and that Ellerslie record is superb.
Second - Scarlett Lady - Can win this based just on class. I think she will take a couple more races to get back to her absolute best, not sure where that will be, Australia?
Third - Postmans Daughter - I think the return to right handed should suit enough for her to improve on the Waikato run.
Fourth - Lady Kipling - Talent on the rise, could be the Cup week shock.

That was tough, I switched 1 and two back and forth several times and also changed up third and fourth with the mares and Hold it Harvey. I think it would pay to keep them safe on the weekend.

Previewing Derby Day

I have gone into a lot of detail about the actual Telecom New Zealand Derby, but there is a lot of great racing action happening at Ellerslie at TV3 Derby Day. Any day when you have $20,000 maidens will be a day where you attract the top talent available.

Lindaeur 1400, Maiden
5 Eastward - Bad luck in Hamilton last start, missed the start and fighting for a run, however wound up well. 1400m looks idea, drawn barrier one will hopefully give him more room.
1 American Idol - Consistently strong in first two starts, an extra 100m to 1400m Saturday. Both runners to beat him last start were already race winners.

3 El Volante - Was so close to breaking Maiden ranks last start over 1400m, showed a strong finish, narrowly missing out to a runner who was not far away up in grade next start. Forget the 1600m last start, it feels like 1400m will suit.

9 Impy Luis - Far more consistency shown this prep, it looks like taking on 1400m will suit as she will be fitter for the runs back, possible value.

Stella Artois 2100m, Special Conditions 2100m
8 Grande Bellezza - Good experience over this kind of distance and running in bigger maiden and Special conditions races. Kept giving a lot last start, you cannot find too many faults with the run, was simply beaten by a better horse who is a Derby chance.
6 Rhythm Divine - A runner who has shown some ability at Ellerslie and with some moisture around. Claiming 3kg. She has been running in strong maidens and Special conditions races. Quick over the last 600m last start. The step to 2100m will appeal.
7 Te Ariki - Looks a genuine stayer at 4YO, already has five runs over 2000m and seems best suited to 2100m, can see it winning this.
2 Roddick - Maybe has not quite been competing against the same level of competition recently, however the victory last start was strong and a repeat performance here would see him in the money most likely.

TV3 Nathan's Memorial 2200m, Open Handicap
2 Shez Sensational - She really lives up to the name. Looking to back up on Wednesday in the Cup one would assume. Handicap conditions see her carry 59kgs, 2200m is more distance than her starts this prep, but she has placed in a Derby and an Oaks in the past.
3 The Jungle Boy - Will be one hoping for rain. He is getting closer to breaking that Ellerslie jinx, this is slightly easier than the Avondale Cup so he can hopefully go one or two better than fourth.
1 Titch - Gets better with racing and looks good after winning his last two starts particularly after taking the 2kg claim into account. This race is tougher, but he has a shining Ellerslie record, and if there is rain around he will be in his element.
6 Azincourt - He tends to get better with racing. His distance record is interesting recently, when he runs 2000m he looks like she needs more distance, when he runs 2100 or 2200m he looks a bit spent. Drawn well and handles damper conditions, can he be another to challenge his Ellerslie Jinx? 

The Gucci Mile, 3YO 1600m
7 Abeautifulred - A filly I have liked since the Guineas, always competitive and has been racing against top company in the 3YO ranks. A step back to 1600m should see her on top.
1 Kings Fortune - Showed significant promise recently but the weight is a concern, it is difficult not to have him in the mix on recent results.
8 Full of Spirit - if you watch the last two starts you will see a horse ready for 1600m, has been running in solid races and looks well suited here.
3 Hexie Hao - Has come on in January, this is tougher, but with the claim and impressively consistent record he should be considered here.

Barfoot and Thompson Mile, Rating 85 1600m
6 Rasteau - Consistent and in form, forget the run two starts back we should see another strong finish over 1600m.
8 Essaouria - Always close, 1600m record is great and seems to handle all conditions so far. Back up in grade but will only have to carry 54kg
5 Platinum Dancer - Flying to finish third in a similar race recently, will have an extra 200m to handle but it looks like he is ready for that.

4 Steel Giant - Don't know much about this horse returning from Hong Kong, usually runners struggle with the conditions or the change in location but he has a good enough overall record that he is worth considering.

The New Zealand Herald 1400, Rating 65 1400m
4 Positive Energy - Close to two from two at 1400m last start. That was impressive because he ran three and four wide early and showed a big finish. Looks like he will be a threat when he steps up to 1600m but for now 1400m looks a good trip.

5 Have no Mercy - Has talent and will claim 3kg, has placed 2 of 3 runs at Ellerslie and wont mind the wet conditions predicted. Last start over 1400m was very good where there was a lot of fight shown.
9 Ishimine - Has been running on this type of premier day recently, was very good two starts back weaving through traffic for 4th, the 3rd at Matamata was distant, but it looks as if 1400m should see her in this.
13 Bead of Courage - Possible value runner, both wins have come over 1400m and on rain effected tracks, will claim 3kg down to very little weight. Won third and fourth up last prep so should come on with the first up start.

Darley Plate, Group 3 1200m
3 Justanexcuse - A lot to like in this race, he has been racing over more distance but has an impressive 1200m record. He has been freshened since January and he goes very well in that state, he will not be concerned by the rain and barrier 10 shouldn't concern given he will likely go back anyway.
1 Durham Town - Very unlucky last start, the fall by Vinnie Colgan was nasty and could have been much worse as he was very close to the rail. He has an Ellerslie and 1200m record similar to Veyron and he seems to be getting better. My concern is that the times he has failed to place at Ellerslie have both been on rain effected tracks. He is undefeated after a spell like he has just had.
5 Vonusti - Although he has been taking on more ground recently he has had a month off and brought back to the distance in which he is a Group 1 winner. 55kg's appeals, he has a good record at Ellerslie and will handle any moisture in the ground. He was running in pretty good form prior to Christmas and this looks a bit easier than some recent starts.
4 Ourforeignminister - Was pretty good in the winter and spring last year. 1200m is probably short of ideal, but I like his chances to do something resuming on what is likely to be a rain effected track.

George FM 2100, Rating 75 over 2100m

3 Captian Marvel - Aside from the one slow track he has encountered he has won or placed in each start to date, will probably figure here.
12 La Veinne - Another runner on the rise, well weighted here with a distance which suits. Seems to have struggled getting away from barrier one, but a threat with a good trip.
2 Payback - Good course and distance record, will handle the wet, claiming 1kg and looks suited to 2100m. Could be value.
10 Bellino - Looked good on the track over 1600m, really came for them into 3rd, he has always gone well over a bit more distance so could be right in this.

New Zealand Derby
I have written an in-depth derby preview here.

Auckland 1400, Rating 75 1400m

3 C'est Magnifique - Goes well fresh, rain is a question mark but he looks to have a lot of talent, there are a lot of chances in this race but he looks very good.
1 Islington Bay - Second race in 3 years, a great effort first up, an extra 100m here suits as does the 3kg claim if the conditions are wet.
8 Lovesite - Is probably looking for more distance, but the claim and wet track effort makes this look like a suitable race on the way to more distance.
9 The Captain - Has not had many attempts right handed, but 1400m and a wet track should suit, seems to go well with some racing, definitely a chance.

2012 New Zealand Derby Preview

This Saturday we are sure to witness a great New Zealand Derby. I have decided to dust off the gimmick I used for the Melbourne Cup last year and pick the result from 17th to first. The field is set, the odds are out, the main unknown is the weather, it is looking reasonably dicey with rain forecast leading up to and on the day. Could we be looking at a third rain effected derby in the last four years? Last year it didn't matter, Jimmy Choux was simply more talented than the remainder of the field, this year? well I think this is already going to be a close race between the main contenders, I think there are some longer shots who can figure, and I think rain could be a great leveler.

(Note: I will be highlighting races to watch for each of the runners, you can watch these by following the link to the NZ Racing website, you will have to sign up, but it is free)


17th Guess What
Jockey: Noel Harris

Barrier: 12
Best race to watch: He ran fourth behind Shuka, Ocean Park and Silent Achiever in the Waikato Guineas, It was a pretty good effort where he kept trying to fight.
What has he done since? Given the guineas fight it is hard to understand the last place without any fight in the Avondale Guineas a couple of weeks later, he has again only had two weeks off, so it is hard to know if you should expect a better effort.
Best case: On the Waikato run you might expect him to travel well and run home well. He may take a lead and holding it until after the turn only to be out sprinted by the big guns falling down to 7th.


16th Barney
Jockey: Craig Grylls
Barrier: 17
Best Race to Watch: The Mad Butcher Championship Stake Prelude, I know his odds made a move for the win a couple of starts later at Matamata, but that was a good Third to a good horse in Duckworth Lewis. He ran well over the 2100m and seemed to find a bit more when he needed it over the last 200m.
What has he done since? He has ran against some good horses without the success, but it is important to note he has been racing at a high level. His win was over 2000m, but it was a $5,000 maiden, when stepping back up in the Waikato Guineas he seemed to fight to the line, but was not a contender. Barrier 17 will worry, has been reasonably handy over the last three, he may find himself in no mans land on Saturday.
Best Case:  Is 3 wide, but finds cover, never gives up and beats a couple of tired ones into 12th. His connections have a fun day seeing their horse in the Derby.

15th Mr Chez
Jockey: Sam Spratt
Barrier: 2
Best race to watch: Two starts back at Waikato in the New Zealand Bloodstock Premier he looked good, he really dominated a Rating 65 field over 2100m (well everyone except for Sir Tane), but that is what you would probably expect from a Victorian Derby runner at Rating 65 level.
What has he done since? Was not as good in the Avondale Guineas, finishing well behind Roamin for 6th and possibly delayed Colorado Sun from making a run to beat him.
Best case: He recaptures the consistency which saw him run 3rd in the Geelong Classic, he shows more of a finish and excels over 2400m to slide into 6th place.

14th Roamin

Jockey: Trudy Thornton

Barrier: 6

Best race to watch: Kate and 'The Master' 2100 , I liked this first victory, it was a big field, not really of the same caliber he will face on Saturday, but Leith Innes did a great job finding a place to settle and the horse  really lifted and responded to challenges over the final 250m.

What has he done since: He went to Auckland and didn't do a lot, followed by another win at Rating 65 level over 2000m at Te Awamutu, he then stepped up in the Avondale Guineas running a fairly close 5th behind four derby starters. He didn't look too bad that day, but looked far short of the class of Silent Achiever.

Best case: The barrier should suit and he may get a similar trip to the race in Hamilton, which would be an improvement on some of his recent starts. He is able to put on a show but finds himself dropping backwards over the final 200m into 9th. Auckland has been a bit of a troubled spot for this horse, which might be simply representative of the level of competition he faces when he races here.

13th Colorado Sun
Jockey: Patrick Holmes
Barrier: 13
Best race to watch: Irwins Truck and Bus Sales 1580 It was a pretty good third after getting away slowly, there seemed to be pace on and he was able to go past most of the field to hit the lead, he finished third, but still seemed to run on well.
What has he done since? Had a race in the Avondale Guineas and was handily beaten by six derby starters, the excuse may be that he was hindered for a good run, he did seem to move a bit when he got space, but at that stage it was a bit too late.
Best Case: Will likely go back from barrier 13 and be close to Silent Achiever, the best case is to hope for the speed to be on a bit and to follow the horse who has a nose for the finish line as far as possibly before fading into 8th.

12th Zurella
Jockey:
Barrier: 7
Best Race to watch: If you had a look at the Sir Tristram Fillies earlier to focus on other runners, have another look at Zurella's impressive victory. It looks a bit closer than it is, technically she only won by a long head, but she was heading in the right direction at the end. I particularly liked the extra effort over the last 50 meters to seal victory. The horses she beat that day were as good as any other 3YO field assembled this season other than the 1000 and 2000 guineas and probably the Eight Carat Classic.
What has she done since? That was her last start, it expelled any concerns about 2000m, but maybe 2400m is still concerning, also the predicted weather is a worry given the Royal Stakes result.
Best Case: The weather gods smile and the overnight rain stays away and sun is prevalent to burn the revellers and keep the track dry, she is able to get out of the barrier well and travel well, she is challenged about 300m out by Silent Achiever and Rock'n'Pop after she hits the lead but she is able to dig in and hold on to beat them in a close photo. I just feel that one of the main contenders is likely to falter and given the rain forecast I think she could be the one (if the rain stays away I see her around 4th)

11th Nine Pin
Jockey: Danielle Johnson

Barrier: 1
Best Race to watch: Have a look at his last start in the Collett Racing Stables 2200m, A pretty good second, close to a victory, but showed pretty good fight.
What has he done since? That was his last start it was about two weeks ago.
Best case: I actually quite like this horse, I think he is consistent and I really thought he would be higher in this list, but there is probably just a bit too much class here to put him higher. The best case could involve him getting out of barrier one well and staying handy to show the same fight and consistency into a top 5 finish.

10th Jeroboam
Jockey: TBA
Barrier:10
Best race to watch: The Auckland Co-Op Taxi's mile in  December, he ran a pretty good third, and looked to be running on. The main reason to watch that race is that you get to see Silent Achiever win her first race.
What has he done since? He was able to break maidens next start, he ran a good looking second on Avondale Guineas day over 2100m, again he showed signs of hitting the line well.
Best case: He goes well at Ellerslie, he races better handy. If he is able to find a nice trailing run he might be able to stick with the leaders and hold on as they pull away to finish 5th.


9th Carrick
Jockey: Leith Innes
Barrier: 15
Best Race to watch: The Avondale Guineas is probably the best display. It was a good third, but he still trailed Shuka and Silent Achiever. He seemed to go very early in that race and was able to hold on well.
What has he done since? This is his first race since then, he will be better for the start over 2100m.
Best case: He again is not one who has looked to push forward in races, the lack of speed, may change up the tactics, but should at least give him time to find somewhere to settle. I can't really separate Travolta and Carrick, both look decent, but hard to see him featuring in the finish, possibly 3rd or 4th as a best case. 

8th Angelology

Jockey: Kelly Myers

Barrier:  3

Best race to watch: The St Ledger Trial is a good example, maybe he didn't have to beat the biggest or most threatening field, but it was a good example of a first run over 2100m, and  he ran it out well.

What has he done since? That was his last start, so will be backing up a week later for this, he has done that a couple of times and won both times.

Best case: You suspect this is far more difficult than anything he has faced, but the fact he has raced without really facing any other contenders, or really even taking on any horses who have also been racing against other runners in this field makes him somewhat of an unknown. He will be the likely leader, particularly from barrier 3, and in a race without a lot of pace or other likely leaders (really only Guess What and Shuka have really led races in the past) he will probably be able to dictate terms, this really could be a sprint finish with a lot of fresh horses. The best case is definitely him taking advantage of the fact his capabilities are unknown and taking off on the corner and stealing victory.

7th Travolta
Jockey: Mark Hills
Barrier: 14
Best Race to Watch: Have a look at him winning over 1600m in Wellington three starts back, he continued to lift to victory on a dead track.
What has he done since? He ran a pretty good fourth in the Avondale guineas after failing at Rating 75 level first time over more than 1600m.
Best Case: I really thought this horse looked great before the Avondale Guineas, he seemed taller and bigger, and looked ready to go. His forth was reasonable and he ran on well, but barrier 14 is a bit off putting. Again the lack of speed may suit and allow him to find cover, if he is able to wind up he could ruin or add value to a few Trifectas by running 3rd.

6th Ocean Park
Jockey: Chad Ormsby
Barrier: 4
Best Race to watch: He was amazing winning the Phil Cataldo Bloodstock Wellington Stakes. Wow, he just kept finding and left them all in his wake.
What has he done since? He looked good in Waikato but was outgunned by Silent Achiever.
Best Case: Barrier four should suit, I am sure they would like to have a eye on Silent Achiever, and typically he has shown strong finishes from distance behind the leaders which is similar to the filly, but from that draw he could put himself in a nice handy position only a few back on the rial, so it will be interesting. The best case is a nice trip, saving his run, showing the ability to hold back and make a late charge like that race in Wellington. He is strong and consistent, rain is a question mark, but he might be too powerful. The rain is a concern enough for me to drop him a couple of spots from where I have him on a good track (3rd behind Rock'n'pop and Silent Achiever).

5nd Rock'n'Pop
Jockey: Matthew Cameron
Barrier: 9

Best Race to Watch: Have a look at his last start against the older horses at WFA level. Forget Shez Sensational, she smashed'em. The pace was off, he was last on the turn and continued to warm up coming home, looking great hitting the line and probably making some ground.
What has he done since? That was his last start, he has had three weeks off, which appears to suit.
Best Case: I read they are going to want to ride him a bit more handy (I can't remember where so I can't include a link), that may suit from barrier 9 you can expect him three or back, with that finish and a bit more distance this strong colt overpowers them and keeps giving making it impossible to Silent Achiever and Ocean Park to catch him. Rain might be the biggest concern which is why I have dropped him from where I would see him in a dry track (2nd), I think if he is handy without much pace on he could still really finish strongly and not be caught.


4th Red Shift
Jockey:
Barrier: 5
Best Race to Watch: Westbury Stud New Zealand-made Stayers 2100m. He beat an interesting field comprising of a couple of competitors he will face Saturday and a couple of others who have raced in other feature races.He had to work for a run, took a while to wind up, but was coming home strongly.
What has he done since? Forgive the next start at Ellerslie, it was not the best effort, but he seemed to get away awkwardly, he still showed fight and covered the 2100m well. He really took a while to wind up, probably 300m before he really started making ground over the final 100m, maybe the extra Derby distance is a blessing.
Best Case: He gets out of the barriers well and stays the the first half of the field. He winds up well and really puts on a show as others are not staying the 2400m lifting to finish 2nd.

3rd Shuka
Jockey: Hayden Tinsley
Barrier: 16th
Best Race to Watch: Watch the Avondale Guineas again, while I think his chances her are hurt by the fact that Silent Achiever is cruising home. I watched that race live, I thought he was gone at the 150m mark which was close to where I was sitting, but he found more and lifted past Carrick for second. It is not that evident on video but live I thought he was going to finish fourth, and he showed a good finish and fight.

What has he done since? That was his last start, he is very consistent and should be in the mix again.
Best Case: Barrier 16 did concern, but there is not much pace in this race which may allow him to get into the first few and a comfortable position, even if he leads I don't think the pace will be too frantic. Hayden Tinsley is a great big race rider and wont panic if things don't start well. He actually reminds me a bit of Military Move from a couple of years ago, consistent without winning, chased home the derby favourite a few times, the race went his way on the day and he was able to take off and win, it is an interesting parallel. Don't worry about the wet either which is why I have bumped him to third.

2nd Chicharita
Jockey
Barrier: 11
Best Race to Watch: New Zealand Bloodstock Royal Stakes (Group 2), She won well, beating Planet Rock and Zurella (who I think have excuses), as well as Our Famous Eve (who went on to perform at Group 1 Level) and the handy Joy's Choice. She ran home beautifully for the victory in that event.
What has she done since? Raced in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic against a good field, on a good track and finished 6th. She was in the first bunch and beat all the horses she was supposed to. She was beaten by five fillies who have had impressive seasons, but I would have liked to see her go a bit better there to figure here.
Best Case: She goes well in Auckland, barrier 11 will suit, and will likely be amongst the top six favourites on Derby Day. The forecast rain will suit, as will the return to a right handed track. She is able to wind up on the turn and explode late to pass Silent Achiever on the line for victory in a best case.

1st Silent Achiever
Jockey: James McDonald
Barrier: 8
Best race to watch: Her beating Ocean Park in the Waikato Guineas, she showed everything you would want to see from your Derby Champion. She had to find a gap and fight through some traffic, she chased down a top horse and found enough to win.
What has she done since? Had a very easy time winning the Avondale Guineas, was really eased to the line after chasing down the competition from her usual rare position.
Best Case: Clearly winning, but the best case would involve James McDonald unleashing all of her significant power and coasting across the line 4 lengths clear of her rivals.  She will handle the wet if it comes, barrier eight wont concern she should get a nice trip in the second half of the field.

20 Things to look forward to during Auckland Cup Week

Auckland Cup Week is nearly upon us, it will be an excellent week to celebration New Zealand Racing, although I will no doubt look more closely at some of the feature races as we get closer to the main event, here are a list of things you can look forward to during Auckland Cup Week at Ellerslie.

1. Infield Partying
There are really only a couple of race days a year where the track is packed to the point the infield is used, Saturday the 3rd of March (TV3 Derby Day) will be one of them. I recall last year cramming under a makeshift shelter in the infield with about a dozen friends only coming out to brave the conditions to restock alcohol, place bets and watch races, but it was great fun, very memorable. I eventually made a run to the grandstand to watch Jimmy Choux do his thing, but the party atmosphere in the infield is always a great time. Boxing Day 2011 had one of the biggest crowds I can remember seeing at Ellerslie, the infield was packed and people were having a great time. Ellerslie does a great job of putting on peripheral entertainment, this year featuring Kimbra, I have no idea who that is, but they sure seem to be pushing it.

2. James McDonald
Last year Opie Bosson had an amazing Auckland Cup Carnival, he rode Titch, The Party Stand, and Anabandana to victories in the Auckland Cup, New Zealand Stakes, and the Diamond Stakes taking out three of the four Group 1 races during Auckland Cup week. That seemed an amazing feat, well this year James McDonald has a chance to replicate that feat as pointed out in the Waikato Times. Can he do it will be a sub-story of Cup week, Silent Achiever is currently Derby favorite, Shez Sensational is looking very good for the Cup. The article talks about Scarlett Lady, and if that is favoured in the New Zealand Stakes, however it looks like it has been withdrawn from nominations (at least they are not listed in on the NZRacing Website), if that is the case you might assume she will be in Australia. The question remains, who will he ride in the remaining Group 1, he rode Choice Bro before Matthew Cameron rode him to victory in Taranaki, he rode Silk Pins in its last start before the Karaka Million, he has ridden Deakes and Toaist Master who are potential nominees. I have no idea who is likely to be in this race, or who he is likely to ride, however looking at some of the potential names you have to figure he is a good chance in that Group 1. Assuming Shez Sensational opts for the Cup and Scarlett Lady is not in the NZ Stakes, James McDonald will no doubt get a ride in this race, however looking at recent 2000m WFA races it is harder to see a likely favourite he might ride, so this may be the one which gets away, either way a possible Mcdonald-Sweep is something to look out for during Cup week.

3. The Nathan's Memorial
As discussed last week two of the last three Auckland Cup winners have come second in this race on Derby Day. This seemingly typical 2200m event will likely feature horses racing as a lead up for the cup against others who simply see it as a good value Open Handicap event.

4. New Zealand's Top Horses
Take away the 4 Group 1's and the handful of other races at listed level and above, the fields are stacked throughout the week, even the midweek meeting. Last year Veyron won a 1200m rating 90, he is now a three time Group 1 winner. High stakes are on offer all week which brings in the top horses from around the country.

5. The Telecom New Zealand Derby on TV3 Derby Day
A major feature of Auckland Cup week, and this year promises a number of contenders who all have their merits. Silent Achiever is the favourite, but there is a lot to like about Ocean Park, Zurella and Rock'n'Pop who I can see potentially taking it out. Shuka you would think would need some luck, and Travolta and Carick looked good in the Avondale Guineas. Don't sleep on any of the longer shots they have tended to feature in recent years, it is the Derby, anything can happen.


6. Something for everyone
Looking back at last year, over the 30 races there were essentially an even number from 1200m, 1400m, 1600m, and 21/2200m, as well as races over 1100m, 2000m, 2400m and 3200m. Again an even number of the maiden's, Rating 70, 80, 90 and Open level races, four races for 3YO's a couple for 2YO's and Fillies and Mares. Whatever you are into there is something for you, it also gives trainers and connections opportunity to find the right race for their horse to compete which should increase the racing excitement.

7. Sunline Vase You don't want to sleep on this potentially explosive event. It is a listed race for the 3YO Fillies over 2100m, but there should be some real talent on display. Look back at the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic a couple of weeks ago, some of those contenders will be on display in the derby, but it is evident that we have a talented group of 3YO fillies, many of these will be taking on this event before the Oaks in a couple of weeks, this is a race to keep an eye on.

8. A major Citywide event
There is certainly a buzz around Auckland leading up to derby day. Not a crazy buzz, this is not an All Black's game, but people are definitely aware it is on, there will be a significant turn out all three days. Auckland Racing Club does a good job promoting this event and making people aware of how fun a day at the races can be.

9. TV3's new Sponsorship
Telecom is a great Derby Sponsor, TV3 certainly has great potential to bring additional life to the event. I can imagine their sponsorship should see more coverage of races outside of the Trackside channels. I thought Sky TV did a great job on Karaka Million night, and although I will be at Ellerslie on Derby Day it will be interesting to see what TV3 can do showing off the sights and sounds.

10. A 3200m Group 1
A very unique event, yes it is annual, but still not a lot of these major staying tests in the country, this year's field is starting to look like it is a very solid one. The Stella Artois Auckland Cup is a race which dates back until 1874 (at least if Wikipedia is to be believed). It is really the great unknown, many of the runners who accept wont have started a race over 2400m, it will a great test of stamina, a big field will line up which will make it s tactical challenge, and a stunning sight for the spectators, there will be questions on every runner as they enter the parade ring, there will be no certainties. Look at the Current favourites, Shez Sensational, Booming, Single Minded, Titch and Six O'Clock News, some questions include distance, weight, distance, form, and consistency amongst others. The winner will see it as an opportunity to look at other Cup races in the future as well as adding a/another Group 1 to their resume.

11. An office sweepstake opportunity
Do you really need an excuse? if it is good for the Melbourne Cup why not the Auckland Cup, it is on in a lot of pubs, get the team together, set up a sweep, drink beers, have fun, it is a simple recipe.If you are the person in your office who is into racing, take charge, set it up.

12. Diamond Day Whip'n'Spurs
If you have not yet experienced a Whips'n'Spurs party you should make this the one. They are a great event, relatively cheap, filled with people all dressed up, you get a great view of the track, and can party all night. You can get your tickets here.

13. Fashion and Stuff
It is not what brings me to the races, but it does tend to attract a lot of Women, and that is never a bad thing. Whenever I can get a good group together to attend these major race days I get to witness how much time an energy females put into wardrobe, hair, makeup, accessories. They go crazy for this stuff and despite the frustration which accompanies making five outfit changes in a morning before the races they clearly enjoy it. I am not in a position to mock, I spend multiple hours studying form in the week leading up to the races and typically get less out of it. The best bit, have you see a woman try to walk in high heels after three bottles of bubbly in 25+ degree temperatures, it is fun for the whole family.

14. New Zealand Stakes
 What do you expect? Shez Sensational has won two Group 1 WFA races over 2000m this season, but take her out of it and this will be a wide open race. Look at the results we have seen this year in the Windsor Park Plate, the Spring Classic, the Captian Cook Stakes, the Zabeel Classic, the Darci Brahma International, and most recently the Otaki Group 1. We wont see Mufhasa, we most likely wont see Shez Sensational or Jimmy Choux, but you can see the quality these races are attracting and the mixed variety of results behind the winners. Veyron's plans are not certain, but given how well he went over 2000m on Boxing day, his love of Auckland and the form he is in, it could be an interesting race.

15. Changing the colours of the Jockey statue
Will we be seeing Titch's colours adorn the Jockey statue for another year? It is a quirky but awesome tradition at Ellerslie (and many other tracks), the winner of the Auckland Cup will have their colours painted on the statue in the back parade ring for the next year.

16. It is happening all over town
I don't want to get to carried away talking about the other codes, but Auckland Cup is not all about the Thoroughbred's. It is happening at Alexandra Park too, they actually kick it off this Friday night with their Oaks followed by their Derby/Cup night the following week, the details are here. If you are into the dag's (you like dag's?), they have their cup too, next Thursday night, details here.

17. Diamond Stakes
The first Group 1 for the Two Year Olds this season. It is shaping up like an outstanding one. The Two year olds have been going at each other this year, contenders are stepping up and then getting knocked down, it is fascinating stuff. I have no idea what to expect from this year group, it is not like there is a dominant Anabandana this year.
18. Enjoy a day in a beautiful park
Ellerslie is stunning, I was out there the other week for the Avondale Guineas day and the course and grounds are looking in excellent condition. You can essentially boil the day down to a picnic in the park, only with 20,000 other people. Even without the added entertainment, it is almost worth the price of admission just to enjoy the surroundings.
19. Midweek Racing of consequence
Having significant racing during the middle of the week is great. The Cup is at the perfect time to knock off work and head down to the pub, or if you are in the Auckland area just take the day off, a lot of other people will be. Better yet, arrange a 'team building' exercise and get paid to go to the races.

20. Leading international Jockeys
Craig Williams recently won the Karaka Million on Ockham's Razor, it is just another example of the success that international Jockey's have had when they venture to our shores. Cup week last year we saw wins from Jim Byrne, Douglas Whyte, Shane Scriven, other internationals Glenn Boss and Craig Williams riding here not to mention other Jockeys who were based in New Zealand who won that week like Mark Du Plessis, Jason Collett, Opie Bosson who are either overseas now or were at some point in the past 12 months riding. The prize money is not quite what is was last year, but there is still potential to see some internationals making the trip to New Zealand.

Three Year Old Power Rankings - The Mid February Edition

It has been about three weeks since my last edition of the Power Rankings of New Zealand Three Year Olds, and although I have been making this a once a month gimmick I wanted to roll it out this week so I can squeeze in another edition before the New Zealand Derby, which is really what this had been about all of this time. I have been a little caught up in Derby hype over the past couple of weeks (17 Sleeps), I have already written about the contenders this week, but there are a number of top 3YO's who have dropped out of the Derby.

The Big Up's
Who has stepped up and shown something since the last edition?
Quintessential - Crushed em (by centimetres) at Trentham  in the Desert Gold Stakes at Group 3 Level beating a handful of runners familiar with this list, followed up with a solid third in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Capital Diamond - Solid since before the 1000 Guineas, put up back to back seconds in the afore mentioned races.
Rock'n'Pop - Karaka 3YO Mile winner followed that up with a strong third at Open Weight For Age Group 1 Level at Waikato.
Knight's Tour - Added another win to his record, worked hard for it but it was not as challenging a race.
Bangalore Bullet - Won a couple of listed Guineas Races in the past few weeks down south.
Silent Achiever - Continues her rise up the rankings.
Zurella - Winner of the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic to answer some questions.
Our Famous Eve - Second in the Royal Stakes, she did herself proud with her effort in stronger company at WFA level, her fifth was not far off second, but still a distance out of first.

Downer's
Who has not performed up to their ranking?
Testa Secret - After the solid Eight Carat Classic she was less than solid in her next two, she might be a bit tired after a busy few weeks.
Ocean Park - Not a major downer, still a lot of hype and Derby favouritism, but not flying as high as a month ago.
Planet Rock - Thought the forth in the Sir Tristram Fillies was good, so not a major downer, but a win there may have cemented first spot.
Chicharita - Was on the verge before her disappointing run in the Sir Tristram Fillies.
Abeautifulred - had been very solid before the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. 
Sangster - I am happy to forgive the run, after whatever the incident was at the 450m mark it looked like he was eased home. I would have liked to see more, but I expect he will continue to improve with distance.


Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Distill (9), Duckworth Lewis (10)

Honourable Mention:
Distill (hardest omission, he is a Group 1 winner after all, but we will not see him again in New Zealand), Duckworth Lewis (will be great as a 4YO if we don't see him again at age 3), Burgundy (still unsure what to make of him), Artistic (continues to race in solid form), Quintessential (big riser), Nashville, Xanadu, Shuka (always seems to come up against Ocean Park and Silent Achiever), Our Famous Eve.

Rankings

Number 10 - Capital Diamond (N/A) - Has looked very strong over the last couple of starts with seconds in very strong fillies races. Is Oaks nominated where $10 looks good value if she continues her consistency and even shows some improvement.

Number 9 - Ocean Park (5) - Still a lot of hype and a great shot at the Derby. The loss to Silent Achiever was not that bad, he will be highly backed on Derby Day and should be ready for 2400m at that point. 

Number 8 - Sangster (2) - A big drop, it is probably undeserved and is more of a reaction to the form of other runners on this list. Something went wrong on Saturday (in a race he was never really a winning chance in anyway) and I am sure he will improve with more distance and more racing and climb this list again.

Number 7 - Knight's Tour (6) - Was set for a rise in these rankings until the word of his injury spread. It is hard not to feel sorry for the connections who had a horse who looked like a potential Group 1 winner and are now faced with uncertainty as to when his career will resume. Obviously you just have to hope he comes back in the same form.

Number 6 - Planet Rock (1) -  I can't penalise the 4th in the Sir Tristram Fillies too hard, that was a tough race and quality field.

Number 5 - Zurella (N/A) - Back up in the rankings after the Sir Tristram Fillies race victory which included the powerful, Planet Rock and Artistic, as well as up and coming  Quintessential and Capital Diamond.

Number 4 - Silent Achiever (8) - Now we know she is headed for the New Zealand Derby (or maybe not), she has beaten her main rival over 2000m and continues to show a lot of finishing speed. We will probably get another look at her on Avondale Guineas Day before the Derby where she will be a major threat to take home the prize. 

Number 3 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana. It is hard to know when he will next race, couldn't see his name in nominations on either side of the Tasman or find any news stories.

Number 2 - Anabandana (4) - Back to Racing in Australia, wasn't a winner, but possibly lost to a very good Filly in Soft Sand. She looks like she will continue to be consistent and a threat to win in Australia this autumn.

Number 1 - Rock'n'Pop (7) - I agonised about who should really be number one on this list. Antonio Lombardo just hasn't raced for a while, an Aussie win may have seen Anabandana here, the resume of Silent Achiever is just not strong enough. Rock'n'Pop was dominant in the Karaka 3YO Mile and looked very good at Group 1 Level over 2000m.

Value Derby Proposition: Zurella ($6) - I just feel like she is closer to the Silent Achiever/Ocean Park ($3.80) level than this.
Long shot Derby Proposition: Joy's Choice ($51) (longest shot I can see winning at this point if all horses with odds were to start)
Value Oaks Proposition: Mosh Pit ($16)  or possibly Quintessential ($12)- Lots of value this far out from the race, but at this point it is probably hard to separate this filly from Artistic ($10), Capital Diamond ($10), Chicharita ($6 - seems way too short), and Planet Rock ($8), Zurella and Silent Achiever are at $6, but who knows if they will run in this and the derby.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Abeautifulred ($61) has been consistent enough to throw a spanner in the works.

Who should be the Derby Favourite?

It is about halfway through February, the New Zealand Derby takes place on the third of March at Ellerslie. Two years ago Katie Lee was a class three year old, but this race was a bit too long and it would come down to a battle between Zarzuela and Monaco Consul (as far as the book makers were concerned, although Katie Lee was kept safe), as it turned out Military Move was too strong. Last year everyone knew Jimmy Choux was the top three year old, some suspected the distance would test, but his class prevailed. The point is those races were reasonably clear heading into them, they may not have played out the way that people expected them to, but people were generally talking about a couple of options as potential winners.

This year is far different, the odds are frequently shifting, contenders are battling other contenders on a weekly basis, favourites are going down and at this stage there is probably about seven horses who could win and you would not be shocked. There are still 22 horses in the nomination list, and that list does not include Sangster or Dowager Queen who you might have expected to be contenders in November last year. Lets have a look at some of the nominations and why you can make a case for them as a potential derby winner.


Silent Achiever
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney  (in the Waikato Guineas over 2000m) Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes over 2100m at Ellerslie), Jerobarm (over 1600m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Planet Rock (Eight Carat Classic over 1600m at Ellerslie)

The win over Ocean Park (then derby favourite) was the one that really cemented Silent Achiever as a horse capable of racing at this level. She has really hit the line strongly each time she steps in the distance which makes the 2400m tempting.

Ocean Park
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Shuka (in the Great Northern Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m), Joys Choice (over 1500m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Knights Tour (Great Northern Guineas)

Thus far the couple of Victories over Shuka are the most impressive on his resume, however his win in the Wellington Stakes was arguably one of the most impressive victories by a three year old this season, he did beat a strong field that day (just no other nominees). The run for second behind Knight's Tour included a finish which would have seen him leading if the race was 50m longer. The second behind Silent Achiever at Te Rapa was good, he didn't really look that comfortable throughout the trip and finished off strongly, but Silent Achiever was simply outstanding, she did a fantastic job to find the hole and catch Ocean Park.

Rock'n'Pop
Current Odds - $6.00
Other noms beaten: Shuka (2000 Guineas over 1600m)
Beaten by: Shuka (Over 1400m at Ashburton)

Is a Group 1 winner who has also placed at Group 1 level at Open level. He came back with a 5th at Tauranga, he then followed up with a strong performances and finish in the Karaka 3YO mile and that 3rd in the Group 1 Darci Brahma International over 2000m. The third last Saturday was a great indication of talent, he didn't get a lot of favours and really hard to work hard, he showed a lot of speed and made up a lot of distance over the final couple of hundred meters.

Knight's Tour
Current Odds -Now out of derby nominations.
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka (Great Northen Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m)
Beaten by: None

Knight's Tour shot into contention with a surprise victory in the Great Northern Guineas on Boxing Day, he followed this up with a hard fought victory on Karaka Millions night over 1600m. He has looked good to date, the win over Ocean Park is probably his best to date when both finished strongly beating a decent guineas field.


Zurella
Current odds - $6
Other noms beaten: Planet Rock (Sir Tristram Fillies Classic at Te Rapa over 2000m) Joy's Choice (Eulogy Stakes over 1600m at Ellerslie), Joy's Choice, Roamin,  (at Te Rapa over 1400m)
Beaten by:


The victory in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic was huge. She was unable to finish off the 2000m strongly in the Royal stakes, that may have been because of the conditions, or because it was her first attempt, however none of that matters now, she beat a class field on the weekend and won in style over 2000m.

Shuka
Current odds - $10
Other noms beaten: Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas), Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes), Rock'n'Pop (over 1400m at Ashburton)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever (Championship Stakes), Knight's Tour, Ocean Park (Great Northern Guineas) Rock'n'Pop (2000 Guineas)

Faced a lot of the contenders and has typically been middle of the pack (relative to the others). He has a good record overall and in bigger races but has not really been able to overcome the elite (who are more favoured than him for the race). Looking at his recent performances over 2000m and 2100m I am not concerned about his ability to get 2400m, but he hasn't really showed that the added 400m/300m would have put him in a position where he would have beaten those horses.

Carrick
Current odds - $14
Other noms beaten: None
Beaten by: None

Will be looking to see how he goes against some of the other noms prior to the derby. He has looked solid to date, but maybe has not faced some of the competition of the other noms.

Planet Rock - is now out of the Derby.

Barney
Current odds - $18
Other noms beaten: Nine Pin (over 2100m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park, Shuka (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever, Shuka, Viking Ace (Championship Stakes)

$18 odds seem a bit low, but it is hard to argue he is not the next best, or at least in the next best group.

It certainly appears overall that this race will come down to a lot of those top nominees, there is certainly a number of cases you can build for each of them, obviously the removal of Planet Rock and Knight's Tour since I began writing this opens things up slightly for others who would have been considered longer shots, but the top four are very close. By looking at some of the past few derby's it is clear longer shots are never out of this race, it would be wise to look closely at some of the performances in lower grade races of some of the runners to see if you can find your outsider. The Avondale Guineas this weekend is always a great indicator as to how horses may go in the Derby, it is definitely one to tune in for.

The most interesting thing this weekend

It has been an eventful week in New Zealand racing with the Karaka Sales. Given that this is the case I still couldn't think of anything to write about this weekends racing action. I was not really interested in looking into anything happening at Otago, the Waikato races interest me but with the smallish Waikato Guineas field I didn't see the point in going into detail. My next thought was with the Sydney Autumn carnival just around the corner it might be worth having a look at races across the ditch and see how the build up is going, however after having a look at the fields in Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland nothing really grabbed my attention, I even had a quick scan of the races on Adelaide and Perth.

I was left with nothing to write about, more so than usual (or should that be less so?) and it has not stopped me in the past. I asked myself, what am I most interested in this weekend? The answer is the Waikato Guineas, but not really the race itself, the battle between leading Derby contender Ocean Park, and leading Oaks contender Silent Achiever (see I told you I would find a way to bring her up in every post until the Oaks).

In this post I will disrespect (and probably regret it later) every other horse they will face this weekend and commence a "tale of the tape" style breakdown on the Ocean Park vs Silent Achiever. Yes, and entire post focusing on two horses in a Group 3 race (that sound you just heard was every other reader slamming their palm on their forehead and rapidly clicking away from this post).

Category	Ocean Park	Silent Achiever	Edge	Notes
Age	3YO	3YO	Even	If you want to get technical Silent Achiever is 25 Days older than Ocean Park.
Sex	Colt	Filly	Even	I am not going to touch that one.
Overall Record	4-3-1-0	4-2-1-1	Ocean Park
Distance Record	0-0	0-0	Silent Achiever	Has won over 2100m while Ocean Park has not raced over more than 1600m, however was so impressive it looked like 2000m will be no problem.
Best Win	Jan 21st @ Wellington (1600m Group 3)	Jan 1st @ Ellerslie (2100m Group 2)	Ocean Park	Was so impressive two weeks ago running away over 1600m.
Best Loss	December 26th @ Ellerslie 2nd to Knights Tour (1600m Group 2)	December 26th @ Ellerslie 3rd to Planet Rock and Testa Secret (1600m Group 2)	Silent Achiever	Ocean Park's run was amazing for second, but the 3rd was in an absolutely stacked Eight Carat Classic.
Jockey	Chad Ormsby	James McDonald	Slight edge, Silent Achiever	It is closer than you may think, Chad Ormsby has a relationship with Ocean Park, but James McDonald is the best Jockey in the country.
The Tron	Trained in Matamata, won twice left handed.	Trained in Cambridge, first start left handed.	Ocean Park	Both don't have too far to travel, Ocean Park's left handed results give him the edge.
Big Beats	Shuka, Burgundy (twice), Joy's Choice, Nashville, Fort Lincoln	Dowager Queen, Artistic, Xanadu, Holy Moly, Abeautifulred, Shuka	Silent Achiever	Thus far in their respective careers it is clear that Silent Achiever has beaten horses with bigger profiles.
Name	Ocean Park? What is that anyway?	Silent Achiever, is that what you really want.	Slight Edge Ocean Park	Neither name really stands out, will give the slight edge to Ocean Park because at least they incorporated the sire Thorn Park, so it is not just something pointless and made up.
Colours	Blue with a white cross and sleeves	Gold	Ocean Park	Have to admit that the Silent Achiever colours are a bit boring, then again they are easy to spot during the running.
Trainer Success this year	23-5-1-3 and $90k this year with an impressive 4.6 strike rake, thanks in big part to Ocean Park	96-17-116-9 and $300k this year at an impressive 5.65 strike rate. Not to mention an Australian Group 1 Victory which was not a victory.	Silent Achiever	But it is relative to the size of their operations.
Biggest Derby/Oaks Competition	Knight's Tour	Chicharita	Silent Achiever	Despite the $5 quote, it just looks like an easier race to win.
Holy hell that was impressive moment	Pulling away from a Group 3 field and winning impressively last start	Her first win where she flew home over the last 200m for victory.	Ocean Park	I am very biased, I was on course for that Silent Achiever victory, and it was one for the most impressive things I have seen in person. However, that Ocean Park win was at Group 3 level.
Who's your daddy?	Thorn Park	O'Reilly	Silent Achiever	Thorn Park Sold 10 Lots @ $126,000 O'Reilly Sold 39 @ $138,077 at the recent premier sale at Karaka. That seems like a fair measurement.
Predicted Finishing Position Saturday	First	Second	Ocean Park	I really, really wanted to call Silent Achiever here, but I just couldn't do it, I have totally bought into the Ocean Park hype, however I think I will place some money on Silent Achiever.
Overall	Won 7 Categories	Won 7 Categories	Even	After all of this it is fairly even between these two and we are probably looking at the New Zealand Derby and Oaks winners this year.

This seemingly unexciting race is really shaping up like a battle between two potential Group 1 winners. Now that I have sufficiently jinxed both of these feel free to put your money on Shuka this weekend. I really think Silent Achiever has a fairly clear run to the Oaks with less competition, I am very weary of Knight's Tour as competition to Ocean Park to the derby. I think if Ocean Park wins this he will likely shorten slightly for the Derby and Silent Achiever will probably not move too much in regard to the Oaks, conversely if Silent Achiever wins she will probably be significantly shorter as Oaks favourite, we Knights Tour may take over as Derby favourite. There is a lot at stake this weekend for these two horses.

January 3YO Power Rankings

This week might be the week for the 2YO's to shine with the Karaka Millions coming up over Auckland Anniversary weekend at Ellerslie. I will cover that race and the 2YO's in general later in the week, but today I will have a look at the 3YO's with another rendition of my completely subjective 3YO Power Rankings. There have been a lot of events for the 3YO's over the Christmas period since my last rankings, there have been six races above listed level (including the Gore Guineas, which for the purposes of this list we wont include) and we are well into our build up for the New Zealand Derby (39 Sleeps!).

The big 3YO stories over the past month include;

Story: Planet Rock's impressive Boxing Day win, and then following up with a pretty close forth on New Years day over 2000m.
Conclusion:  She looked great on Boxing day, and looked good New Years day as well getting caught in the last 100m, it might have just been the wear and tear of two runs in seven days combined with the first 2000m effort, but I would still consider her one to watch over that distance.

Story: Burgundy's question marks. Looked to have a great position on Boxing day, just couldn't finish. Had a disaster last Saturday at Wellington, started poorly, raced wide and back, moved forward and was blocked at about 600m, then showed a good finish for third.
Conclusion:  Ocean Park looked fantastic in that race on the weekend and is the story to focus on. Burgundy still seems to have the talent but just cannot put it together in these big races.

Story: Emerging Derby Contenders
Conclusion: Knights Tour was amazing on boxing day, it was a great finish and showed the ability to go over more distance, particularly given he caught and passed Burgundy and fought hard against Ocean Park.  Ocean Park looks to have gone to another level in Wellington smashing them in a good Group 3 field. I am certain other contenders will come to light as we approach March 3.

Story: My man-crush (?) on Silent Achiever
Conclusion: I figure if I mention this horse in everything I write over the next couple of months good things will happen. She is now the Oaks favourite and why not with that explosive finish. She was great on Boxing day in a race which where she was screaming for a bit more distance, then took on the fellas over 2100m which had the advantage of having an extra 100m over the 3YOF race that day. She was basically last on the turn and really smoked them. Looking at those Oak's odds $5 seems short to take this far out, $9 for Planet Rock is still tempting.

Onwards to the 3YO rankings.

Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings: Dowager Queen (8), Zurella (9)
Honourable Mention: Testa Secret (hardest omission) Burgundy (what to expect?), Artistic (on a series of 4ths against good opposition), Shuka (always solid), Nashville, Xanadu (not sure I agree but I know she would be discussed before any big race). 

Number 10 - Duckworth Lewis (8) - Just found the Zabeel Classic slightly too hard, but he was far from the worst with a strong 7th, he will show a lot more against his own age group. 


Number 9 - Distil (6) - We wont see him again in New Zealand so is slowly drifting down this list.

Number 8  - Silent Achiever (HM) - Moved up from honourable mention with her impressive finishes since the last rankings.

Number 7 - Rock'n'Pop (2) - he is a Group 1 winner. He resumed with a last in a small field over 1600m and will look to improve from that if he is to contend in the Derby.

Number 6 - Knight's Tour (N/A) - his fortune is now closely linked to the fortune of number 5 on this list, he is the only horse to have beaten him. Then why is he not higher? he is not getting the same buzz.

Number 5 - Ocean Park (N/A) - Almost by definition he needs to be this high on the list. If everyone is talking about your amazing performance and you have improved to derby favourite then you have the Power.

Number 4 - Anabandana (4) - Now has not raced since the Guineas, it is not evident when we will next get a look at this classy filly.

Number 3 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - I still see him as a Group 1 winner in waiting, less than impressive last start but should bounce back fresh when we next see him. 

Number 2 - Sangster (1) - Diminishing in these rankings because he is not in the forefront of our minds, can't see any nominations for him so he might be looking at an extended spell before the Queensland winter. I would still consider him a Derby favourite (if he was nominated) even  after the impressive Kinght's Tour and Ocean Park performances.

Number 1 - Planet Rock (5) - The big Group 2 win pushes her up, you can excuse the following week, she still has the power. 

Value Derby Proposition: Shuka ($31)
Long shot Derby Proposition: Shanghai Bund ($51) (longest shot I can see winning at this point)