I wanted to wait for the Australian Derby before preparing this version of the power rankings in the hope that there was not question over number one, despite a strong effort Silent Achiever ran a close up 6th. That looked like a two horse race heading in but Laser Hawk finished third. That may be the end of the season for the New Zealand Derby winner, she will have earned a rest whenever that comes and I look forward to seeing her again in the Spring.
Roger James would have been disappointed with that result. I am sure that he, like many others, thought she had what it took to win that race, however the day was not bad overall for Roger James as he uncovered a potential Oaks contender with Full of Spirit getting it done at Group 3 level with James McDonald on board in the 2000m Patinak Farm Adrian Knox Stakes. Full of Spirit is currently second favourite in a small field for this weekends Australian Oaks. The 3YO daughter of Flying Spur has come out of the woodwork recently, after winning on debut, she finished 7th in both the 1000 Guineas and the strong Eight Carat Classic, and continued to improve before winning her last start before the trip to Sydney.
The last edition of the Power Rankings came out following the Derby, but prior to the Oaks. Given the strength of that race it should have and effect on these rankings. We should also get a good sight of some of these runners over the Winter as it has been confirmed that at least Artistic, and Nashville will be heading to Queensland, and likely other top contenders too.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Knights Tour (7), Antonio Lombardo (10)
Honourable Mention
Chicharita
(HM, I see she is in Australia, it will be interesting to see how she goes), Knight's Tour (7, hopefully he ends up in Australia, I know I read about that as a potential plan when he first injured himself),
Capital Diamond (HM), Xanadu, Duckworth Lewis (HM), Travolta (HM), Joy's Choice(HM), Nashville (HM, and another off to Australia), Shuka (HM,
always HM), St Yazin, Poste Restante, Glad (HM)
Number 10 - Quintessential (HM) - Toss up between this filly and Xanadu for this last spot. Both were third in a Group 1 last start, both races included impressive fields, but I think her performance in the Oaks and overall season is just stronger.
Number 9 - Burgundy (7) - Really looking forward to seeing him when he next races. I think he has now found his niche around the sprint distances. He has all the talent as we saw early in his career and hopefully he will continue to improve at age 4.
Number 8 - Full of Spirit (N/A) - A bit of hype around this runner, a Group 3 in Australia is an accomplishment, she will really climb these chats with a win in the Oaks.
Number 7 - Carrick (5) - I have not read what the plan is for this Derby place getter, I don't see him on the list of exported horses, so I assume he is having some time off in New Zealand at this point.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (3) - Still not sure the Jockey change for the Oaks was the wisest choice, however I do feel that she was somewhat unlucky in that race and had to expend all of that energy early.
Number 5 - Rock'n'Pop (2) - I look forward to seeing him continue at age four in Australia. He looks such a strong colt, I am not quite sure what his niche will be because he has shown so much talent over all distances so far.
Number 4 - Ocean Park (9) - Unlucky year, was the derby favourite until withdrawal because of track uncertainty. Backed up that decision with a bold second in Sydney only to strike more bad luck leading into the Australian Derby. He appears a very strong 3YO and will possibly continue to age four. Not sure what his targets might be but I imagine he can put on a show in a race like the Windsor Park Plate over 1600m if he ends up there.
Number 3 - Zurella (4) - Out performed my expectations in the Oaks, but combined with a strong derby she is well deserving of a position this high on this list.
Number 2 - Artistic (6) - What is a bigger accomplishment, winning the Oaks or running second in a Group 1 in Australia? I already had her ahead of Ocean Park so she deserves to stay here. She has really built well over the season, she has been super consistent, and she seems to be getting better over more distance, she will be a threat in Queensland.
Number 1 - Silent Achiever (1) - A strong third in the Rosehill Guineas where I feel she was actually a tad unlucky in the big field they assembled. Her 6th in the Australian Guineas is disappointing from the perspective that she was favourite, but ordinarily is still an achievement (didn't Jimmy Choux run 6th in that race last year?)
Showing posts with label Silent Achiever. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Silent Achiever. Show all posts
Friday, 20 April 2012
Thursday, 29 March 2012
Which Kiwi has the best chance in the Rosehill Guineas?
This Saturday four New Zealand trained runners will take their place in the Rosehill Guineas over 2000m in Sydney. Three of them are rated (by New Zealand bookies) in the top 5 chances (in terms of odds), the other is already a Group 1 winner in Australia. The trip to Australia is always a big challenge for Kiwi horses, there has been a lot of successes over the past couple of years with Wall Street, Jimmy Choux, Mufhasa, Sangster, Lion Tamer, Kings Rose (Can I still claim that?) and Scarlett Lady amongst some of the more successful. This Saturday there is a chance another name will be added to this list. I have watched these New Zealand 3YO's pretty closely and this is how I think they will go this weekend.
Sangster won the Victorian Derby in November. This prep he was never going to be a chance in the Waikato Draft Sprint, he was most likely not going to factor in the Australian Guineas, but last start at Moonee Valley over 2040m he showed similar progress to his build up to the Victorian Derby putting in a better performance. 2000m will suit, but this may still be a bit of a Derby build up. He is certainly a place chance, $21 is pretty good value for a win, but the AJC Derby in two weeks is a race he could really be a big part of.
Rock'n'Pop is a bigger chance than the $10 odds on offer at present. Even just looking at how he compares to Ocean Park and Silent Achiever, he was well beaten into second by Silent Achiever on ground which was probably not ideal for either runner, but why is Ocean Park rated a so much better chance than him. Rock'n'Pop won the Guineas, was third at Group 1 level behind Shez Sinsational over this distance, and then was a good second in the Derby (when distance was a question mark). Ocean Park's best two results were dominating the Group 3 Wellington Stakes, a close up 8th two weeks ago at Randwick, and having Silent Achiever weave through the field and beat him in Hamilton. Personally I still prefer Rcok'n'Pop, I think this distance will suit, he will be happy at barrier 10 and you would imagine he will be in the first half of the pack two wide.
Ocean Park is a good chance, despite been caught late over 2000m at Hamilton he will be fitter for that experience over 2000m. He was only two-ish lengths behind Mosheen last start (she would be favoured here I expect) and finished comparably to Manawanui. I know Ocean Park is good, it is just very hard to compare him to any of the other Kiwi horses, I know Silent Achiever was better than him, is suspect Rock'n'Pop is better, but because he missed the derby there are a lot of unknowns. It appears he might have improved from his last New Zealand Race, and strong form in Australia is important, but he did finish behind Seven other horses in the Randwick Guineas, five of which he will face on Saturday. Luck was certainly a factor in the Randwick Guineas, but to bet on Ocean Park to win this weekend you need to make the following assumptions; he wont have bad luck (you have to assume that for whoever you bet on); he would have beaten the other five Australian runners without bad luck (doubtful); he would have beaten them if the race was extended 400m (possible); he has improved to the point he is better than Silent Achiever (unlikely); Silent Achiever will beat every other runner over 2000m (a strong chance); he is stronger and 2000m now suits (I am still not completely sure, but will give him benefit of the doubt). That is not enough in my opinion to have him beating Silent Achiever, Laser Hawk or all of other other four who beat him last time.
Silent Achiever is great, the draw should not concern, she will go back, if she has cover she should be able to get a run. She is the best hope of the Kiwi's, in a four horse race over this distance she beats them all with comfort. Is she good enough to beat the Aussie horses? that is the big question.
Of course this is not just a four horse race, there will probably be 18 starters. Laser Hawk ran a narrow third to Mosheen last start and has to be considered. If you like Ocean Park you have to like the look of Galah. Strike the Stars is a chance based on his last two races. Induna and Sabrage will be getting better with distance, but probably wont figure. Highly Recommended looks more threatening over 2000m. Said Com is consistent but ran out of steam and now has 400m more to deal with. Proliferate is stepping up, but the distance with better footing may help.
There are chances across the board and the Kiwi runners are a good hope, certainly we should see one or two in the money, but can they claim the big prize, Silent Achiever looks the best pick.
Sangster won the Victorian Derby in November. This prep he was never going to be a chance in the Waikato Draft Sprint, he was most likely not going to factor in the Australian Guineas, but last start at Moonee Valley over 2040m he showed similar progress to his build up to the Victorian Derby putting in a better performance. 2000m will suit, but this may still be a bit of a Derby build up. He is certainly a place chance, $21 is pretty good value for a win, but the AJC Derby in two weeks is a race he could really be a big part of.
Rock'n'Pop is a bigger chance than the $10 odds on offer at present. Even just looking at how he compares to Ocean Park and Silent Achiever, he was well beaten into second by Silent Achiever on ground which was probably not ideal for either runner, but why is Ocean Park rated a so much better chance than him. Rock'n'Pop won the Guineas, was third at Group 1 level behind Shez Sinsational over this distance, and then was a good second in the Derby (when distance was a question mark). Ocean Park's best two results were dominating the Group 3 Wellington Stakes, a close up 8th two weeks ago at Randwick, and having Silent Achiever weave through the field and beat him in Hamilton. Personally I still prefer Rcok'n'Pop, I think this distance will suit, he will be happy at barrier 10 and you would imagine he will be in the first half of the pack two wide.
Ocean Park is a good chance, despite been caught late over 2000m at Hamilton he will be fitter for that experience over 2000m. He was only two-ish lengths behind Mosheen last start (she would be favoured here I expect) and finished comparably to Manawanui. I know Ocean Park is good, it is just very hard to compare him to any of the other Kiwi horses, I know Silent Achiever was better than him, is suspect Rock'n'Pop is better, but because he missed the derby there are a lot of unknowns. It appears he might have improved from his last New Zealand Race, and strong form in Australia is important, but he did finish behind Seven other horses in the Randwick Guineas, five of which he will face on Saturday. Luck was certainly a factor in the Randwick Guineas, but to bet on Ocean Park to win this weekend you need to make the following assumptions; he wont have bad luck (you have to assume that for whoever you bet on); he would have beaten the other five Australian runners without bad luck (doubtful); he would have beaten them if the race was extended 400m (possible); he has improved to the point he is better than Silent Achiever (unlikely); Silent Achiever will beat every other runner over 2000m (a strong chance); he is stronger and 2000m now suits (I am still not completely sure, but will give him benefit of the doubt). That is not enough in my opinion to have him beating Silent Achiever, Laser Hawk or all of other other four who beat him last time.
Silent Achiever is great, the draw should not concern, she will go back, if she has cover she should be able to get a run. She is the best hope of the Kiwi's, in a four horse race over this distance she beats them all with comfort. Is she good enough to beat the Aussie horses? that is the big question.
Of course this is not just a four horse race, there will probably be 18 starters. Laser Hawk ran a narrow third to Mosheen last start and has to be considered. If you like Ocean Park you have to like the look of Galah. Strike the Stars is a chance based on his last two races. Induna and Sabrage will be getting better with distance, but probably wont figure. Highly Recommended looks more threatening over 2000m. Said Com is consistent but ran out of steam and now has 400m more to deal with. Proliferate is stepping up, but the distance with better footing may help.
There are chances across the board and the Kiwi runners are a good hope, certainly we should see one or two in the money, but can they claim the big prize, Silent Achiever looks the best pick.
Friday, 23 March 2012
New Zealand Horse of the Year contenders
I have been looking for something to write about this week. Although I am very excited about the racing at Rosehill this weekend and for some reason the Japan Trophy meeting at Tauranga is one which always excites me, I am not sure I have much to say about these races.
The season feels like it is winding up, there are still three group 1's this year in New Zealand and plenty of horses heading to Australia for the Sydney Carnival and there are always a number who head to Queensland in the Winter. It has been such a good year for a number of horses I got to thinking who would be my horse of the year right now? When I came up with my answer I realised that horse may be too far ahead to catch. What would need to happen over the next couple of months to change my opinion?
If the season finished now, there is little doubt in my mind that the best performing horse from New Zealand this year has been Mufhasa. His resume includes two Group 1 wins in New Zealand (Makfi Challenge Stakes and the Captain Cook Stakes) as well as two in Australia (Toorak Handicap and the Futurity Stakes), he also finished second in two Group 1 Races in New Zealand (Winsor Park Plate and the Waikato Draft Sprint), his 'worst' performance has been second at Group 3 level in the Tauranga Stakes. The only three horses have to finish a race ahead of him this year are Jimmy Choux, Veyron (both 2 time New Zealand Group 1 winners this year) and Lady Chaparral. That is a very decent six month stretch. There may be more to come in Sydney this Autumn. Is that the best season by any Kiwi horse? I don't think there is anything which can top this now, but could anything top it by year end?
Could a Two Year Old win?
Conceivably, yes. This year, no. Even if Warhorse is able to win a second Group 1 it would be impossible to put his body of work ahead of Mufhasa. Even if a unrecognised or under-recognised NZ 2YO travelled to Australia in the winter and won multiple Group 1's it still might not be enough. I am yet to read of any plans for any of the "leading" 2YO talent to attempt this, so we can stack this in the very unlikely pile.
Who is the top 3YO contender?
There have been five 3YO Group 1 Races, we have had five different winners. Only one horse (Rock'n'Pop) has run in the top three of more than one of these races. The other two stand out 3YO's this year (when you look at their whole body of work) are Planet Rock and Silent Achiever, the next tier includes Artistic and Ocean Park. I know none of these have impressed like Mufhasa thus far this season, I think the top New Zealand three year old may come down to Australian performances, but will any of these performances be sufficient to unseat current favourite Mufhasa? If Silent Achiever is able to win both the Rosehill Guineas and the Australia Derby (assuming that is where she ends up), what if Artistic is able to do something in Queensland, as the Oaks appears a target, Ocean Park looked good first start in Australia, he might be a Guineas or even Derby threat, and there is always the chance of another top chance emerging over the Winter like Shez Sinsational and Scarlett Lady did last year, could a horse like Quintessential challenge? I am not sure Silent Achiever will be best suited in the Guineas, but should be a threat over Oaks or Derby distance. However, even with those feathers in her cap it is hard to see people considering her as having a better year than Mufhasa.
Group 1 Winners galore
Scarlett Lady had the potential to sew up this horse of the year status in the Spring but injury prevented this. She is currently in Australia and one would assume she is aiming for a BMW or a Sydney Cup or something similar. Her resume for 2011/12 is short, but includes a 2000m Group 1 victory during Auckland Cup week. Strong results over in Australia could see her contend for horse of the year, but there is a lot of ground to make up.
Veyron finished off a dominant 2011 with a win in the Easter Handicap capturing his first Group 1 in the process. He started the new season with a fourth first up at Open Handicap level in November, as we approach April that is still his worst result of the season. Since then he has won four races and finished second in two with two Group 1 wins and two seconds over 2000m also at Group 1 level. I would not have expected him to show that kind of talent over 2000m, but it is really testament to his ability. Had he captured those other two Group 1's he may even be the favourite to be horse of the year. Thus far he is not on the exported horses list for March, so it is not clear if he will run in Australia this year.
Shez Sinsational didn't begin the 2011/12 season spectacularly, running 2nd and 3rd over 1400m in Rating 90 company and 5th in a 1600m Group 3 race. However, the Queensland Oaks and Derby place-getter showed that more ground was what she craved running 2nd in the Cal Isuzu Stakes over 1600m at Group 2 level and then dominating the 2000m WFA category winning both the Zabeel Classic and the Darci Brahma International. Handicap conditions and wet ground caused a worry when third in the Nathan's Memorial but her third Group 1 win was impressive in the Auckland Cup. That alone is probably not enough to have her as horse of the year over Mufhasa, however there are plenty of options available to her as to where she might race next.
Jimmy Choux has two Group 1 wins in New Zealand this year (Windsor Park Plate and the Spring Classic), he was runner up in the first of the three "triple crown" races to Mufhasa. He was runner up in the Cox Plate and fourth in the Emirates Mile. He was invited to the Hong Kong Mile, he ran ninth, but even accepting an invitation is a big deal. He will have one more start in New Zealand (probably) this year in the Easter Handicap, clearly Handicap conditions may not be ideal, but one would think he has the talent even at a significant weight disadvantage. He will then likely head to Australia for more Group 1's. Would a third New Zealand Group 1 and one or two Aussie Group 1's make him the best Kiwi horse this year? maybe, it really depends on how Mufhasa goes, however at this point it his his 'Race' to lose.
The season feels like it is winding up, there are still three group 1's this year in New Zealand and plenty of horses heading to Australia for the Sydney Carnival and there are always a number who head to Queensland in the Winter. It has been such a good year for a number of horses I got to thinking who would be my horse of the year right now? When I came up with my answer I realised that horse may be too far ahead to catch. What would need to happen over the next couple of months to change my opinion?
If the season finished now, there is little doubt in my mind that the best performing horse from New Zealand this year has been Mufhasa. His resume includes two Group 1 wins in New Zealand (Makfi Challenge Stakes and the Captain Cook Stakes) as well as two in Australia (Toorak Handicap and the Futurity Stakes), he also finished second in two Group 1 Races in New Zealand (Winsor Park Plate and the Waikato Draft Sprint), his 'worst' performance has been second at Group 3 level in the Tauranga Stakes. The only three horses have to finish a race ahead of him this year are Jimmy Choux, Veyron (both 2 time New Zealand Group 1 winners this year) and Lady Chaparral. That is a very decent six month stretch. There may be more to come in Sydney this Autumn. Is that the best season by any Kiwi horse? I don't think there is anything which can top this now, but could anything top it by year end?
Could a Two Year Old win?
Conceivably, yes. This year, no. Even if Warhorse is able to win a second Group 1 it would be impossible to put his body of work ahead of Mufhasa. Even if a unrecognised or under-recognised NZ 2YO travelled to Australia in the winter and won multiple Group 1's it still might not be enough. I am yet to read of any plans for any of the "leading" 2YO talent to attempt this, so we can stack this in the very unlikely pile.
Who is the top 3YO contender?
There have been five 3YO Group 1 Races, we have had five different winners. Only one horse (Rock'n'Pop) has run in the top three of more than one of these races. The other two stand out 3YO's this year (when you look at their whole body of work) are Planet Rock and Silent Achiever, the next tier includes Artistic and Ocean Park. I know none of these have impressed like Mufhasa thus far this season, I think the top New Zealand three year old may come down to Australian performances, but will any of these performances be sufficient to unseat current favourite Mufhasa? If Silent Achiever is able to win both the Rosehill Guineas and the Australia Derby (assuming that is where she ends up), what if Artistic is able to do something in Queensland, as the Oaks appears a target, Ocean Park looked good first start in Australia, he might be a Guineas or even Derby threat, and there is always the chance of another top chance emerging over the Winter like Shez Sinsational and Scarlett Lady did last year, could a horse like Quintessential challenge? I am not sure Silent Achiever will be best suited in the Guineas, but should be a threat over Oaks or Derby distance. However, even with those feathers in her cap it is hard to see people considering her as having a better year than Mufhasa.
Group 1 Winners galore
Scarlett Lady had the potential to sew up this horse of the year status in the Spring but injury prevented this. She is currently in Australia and one would assume she is aiming for a BMW or a Sydney Cup or something similar. Her resume for 2011/12 is short, but includes a 2000m Group 1 victory during Auckland Cup week. Strong results over in Australia could see her contend for horse of the year, but there is a lot of ground to make up.
Veyron finished off a dominant 2011 with a win in the Easter Handicap capturing his first Group 1 in the process. He started the new season with a fourth first up at Open Handicap level in November, as we approach April that is still his worst result of the season. Since then he has won four races and finished second in two with two Group 1 wins and two seconds over 2000m also at Group 1 level. I would not have expected him to show that kind of talent over 2000m, but it is really testament to his ability. Had he captured those other two Group 1's he may even be the favourite to be horse of the year. Thus far he is not on the exported horses list for March, so it is not clear if he will run in Australia this year.
Shez Sinsational didn't begin the 2011/12 season spectacularly, running 2nd and 3rd over 1400m in Rating 90 company and 5th in a 1600m Group 3 race. However, the Queensland Oaks and Derby place-getter showed that more ground was what she craved running 2nd in the Cal Isuzu Stakes over 1600m at Group 2 level and then dominating the 2000m WFA category winning both the Zabeel Classic and the Darci Brahma International. Handicap conditions and wet ground caused a worry when third in the Nathan's Memorial but her third Group 1 win was impressive in the Auckland Cup. That alone is probably not enough to have her as horse of the year over Mufhasa, however there are plenty of options available to her as to where she might race next.
Jimmy Choux has two Group 1 wins in New Zealand this year (Windsor Park Plate and the Spring Classic), he was runner up in the first of the three "triple crown" races to Mufhasa. He was runner up in the Cox Plate and fourth in the Emirates Mile. He was invited to the Hong Kong Mile, he ran ninth, but even accepting an invitation is a big deal. He will have one more start in New Zealand (probably) this year in the Easter Handicap, clearly Handicap conditions may not be ideal, but one would think he has the talent even at a significant weight disadvantage. He will then likely head to Australia for more Group 1's. Would a third New Zealand Group 1 and one or two Aussie Group 1's make him the best Kiwi horse this year? maybe, it really depends on how Mufhasa goes, however at this point it his his 'Race' to lose.
Tuesday, 13 March 2012
Three Year Old Power Rankings March Edition
Many things have changed in the last month since the February Power Rankings,we have seen the running of the New Zealand Derby, the Sunline Vase, the Lowland Stakes, and the Mr Tiz Trophy. We have seen a possible return to prominence from Burgundy, and a surprising lack of prominence from Antonio Lombardo, as well as the retirement of Anabandana and Ocean Park heading off in search of his derby across the ditch.
Where does that put us in the Power Rankings?
The Anabandana situation is a mystery, she was second on this list last month, and although she would have dropped following her second, and ultimately final, start in Australia I didn't expect to see a retirement. I guess, much like Distil she will have to drop from the rankings, because if not racing I guess she doesn't qualify. What an outstanding career!
I have really loved this class of fillies, and we are looking at a great Oaks this weekend, we may see another filly on top of this list, but Ocean park has a chance to take a big step up this list as he taking on the Randwick Guineas this weekend.
Not sure what to make of Burgundy after the weekend, which is becoming like his nickname, he was probably never going to win a Derby, after watching the run on the weekend I am unsure if he was really ever going to win a guineas either, it was only a month ago when I wrote " I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana." It would have been awesome if I was writing about Burgundy, but I was actually talking about Antonio Lombardo. This really creates a puzzle. Burgundy looked very good, maybe he was always going to be a 1200m type horse. As it turns out this was the thinking from the connections as well. (although that article indicates it wont be in the thought process, do you think an Easter Handicap is too much of a stretch? we are still waiting on our first 3YO Group 1 winner at open level). Antonio Lombardo didn't really look as good as he did early in the Spring, maybe it was the dead track which had been raced on 24 times that week, or the extra weight he was carrying but he just didn't seem to have that same closing speed, did he do enough to remain in the top 10.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Anabandana (2) Sangster (8) Capital Diamond (10)
Honourable Mention
Anabandana (2, for reasons discussed above), Sangster (8, hard to leave out, his starts this prep have been over 1400m and 1600m, I would expect to see him back in this list once we get closer to 2000m ), Chicharita (Very narrow miss, testament to the quality of the 3YO's we are seeing), Capital Diamond (10, Fought on well in the wet, still a possible Oaks contender, 2400m should not be an issue), Duckworth Lewis (HM), Quintessential (HM), Travolta, Joy's Choice, Nashville (HM), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Glad (not currently Oak's nominated but Sleeper Alert!)
Number 10 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - Would have been hard to leave him off, I really expect to see him bounce back over his next start. He didn't look his best on the weekend, but I expect to see him back to it soon.
Number 9 - Ocean Park (9) - Big expectations around this Colt and what he can do in Sydney.
Number 8 - Knight's Tour (7) - What could have been? Not sure when he is coming back, hopefully he comes back as good has be looked before the injury.
Number 7 - Burgundy (HM) - Back up in the rankings following an impressive 1200m victory in a listed race the last day of Auckland Cup week.
Number 6 - Artistic (HM) - Was her win the Sunline Vase better than Capital Diamond's second in the Lowland Stakes. The conditions were certainly better, it will be interesting to find out this Saturday.
Number 5 - Carrick (N/A) - Close up and fighting third in the Derby, he is probably working with less talent wise than the first two on this list, but he showed a great effort and should continue to contend when the distance gets above 2000m.
Number 4 - Zurella (5) - Was good in the Derby for 5th in a race which probably wasn't ideal. She will want a dryer track in the Oaks, and although it feels (to me anyway) like there is still a question mark over 2400m she may challenge based on talent alone.
Number 3 - Planet Rock (6) - Back to her best when winning on Derby Day in the Hawkes Bay. She is an interesting one, I had to drop her down the list last time because she had two consecutive fourths, however I really felt that the Royal Stakes was justified because of the backing up from the week before and it was her first 2000m start. The following start in the Sir Tristram fillies I felt there were excuses, but it was maybe just not her day, she also finished behind three very good fillies. She is clearly class and can really prove it by beating a top Oak's field this weekend.
Number 2 - Rock'n'Pop (1) - Is it possible I have actually underrated him all year? How do you underrate a Group 1 winner? But he ran out a very strong Derby, prior to this the 3rd at Group 1 level was again excellent. The only time he didn't really fire was on a slow track in a meaningless race. I am still not even sure the distance or conditions for the Derby were really ideal, but he just showed his considerable talent.
Number 1 - Silent Achiever (4) - What more can I say? no, seriously, I have probably written about 5000+ words about her since December. She was amazing on the 3rd, it was a great win. It will be great to see what she can do in Australia. Is she as good as Jimmy Choux was last year? hard to say, I will need to think about that. I feel another breakdown coming on (although I was wrong about the last one I wrote). She is a different horse than Jimmy Choux, she was always going to get better as we got up to 2400m, but maybe we will see them against each other next year over 2000m, that could be interesting. My gut says that Jimmy is better, but even if she is only as good as King's Rose, we are still looking at what will be an interesting 4YO year.
Value Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed, although I can say I will be Glad to see them when they are.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed
Where does that put us in the Power Rankings?
The Anabandana situation is a mystery, she was second on this list last month, and although she would have dropped following her second, and ultimately final, start in Australia I didn't expect to see a retirement. I guess, much like Distil she will have to drop from the rankings, because if not racing I guess she doesn't qualify. What an outstanding career!
I have really loved this class of fillies, and we are looking at a great Oaks this weekend, we may see another filly on top of this list, but Ocean park has a chance to take a big step up this list as he taking on the Randwick Guineas this weekend.
Not sure what to make of Burgundy after the weekend, which is becoming like his nickname, he was probably never going to win a Derby, after watching the run on the weekend I am unsure if he was really ever going to win a guineas either, it was only a month ago when I wrote " I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana." It would have been awesome if I was writing about Burgundy, but I was actually talking about Antonio Lombardo. This really creates a puzzle. Burgundy looked very good, maybe he was always going to be a 1200m type horse. As it turns out this was the thinking from the connections as well. (although that article indicates it wont be in the thought process, do you think an Easter Handicap is too much of a stretch? we are still waiting on our first 3YO Group 1 winner at open level). Antonio Lombardo didn't really look as good as he did early in the Spring, maybe it was the dead track which had been raced on 24 times that week, or the extra weight he was carrying but he just didn't seem to have that same closing speed, did he do enough to remain in the top 10.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Anabandana (2) Sangster (8) Capital Diamond (10)
Honourable Mention
Anabandana (2, for reasons discussed above), Sangster (8, hard to leave out, his starts this prep have been over 1400m and 1600m, I would expect to see him back in this list once we get closer to 2000m ), Chicharita (Very narrow miss, testament to the quality of the 3YO's we are seeing), Capital Diamond (10, Fought on well in the wet, still a possible Oaks contender, 2400m should not be an issue), Duckworth Lewis (HM), Quintessential (HM), Travolta, Joy's Choice, Nashville (HM), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Glad (not currently Oak's nominated but Sleeper Alert!)
Number 10 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - Would have been hard to leave him off, I really expect to see him bounce back over his next start. He didn't look his best on the weekend, but I expect to see him back to it soon.
Number 9 - Ocean Park (9) - Big expectations around this Colt and what he can do in Sydney.
Number 8 - Knight's Tour (7) - What could have been? Not sure when he is coming back, hopefully he comes back as good has be looked before the injury.
Number 7 - Burgundy (HM) - Back up in the rankings following an impressive 1200m victory in a listed race the last day of Auckland Cup week.
Number 6 - Artistic (HM) - Was her win the Sunline Vase better than Capital Diamond's second in the Lowland Stakes. The conditions were certainly better, it will be interesting to find out this Saturday.
Number 5 - Carrick (N/A) - Close up and fighting third in the Derby, he is probably working with less talent wise than the first two on this list, but he showed a great effort and should continue to contend when the distance gets above 2000m.
Number 4 - Zurella (5) - Was good in the Derby for 5th in a race which probably wasn't ideal. She will want a dryer track in the Oaks, and although it feels (to me anyway) like there is still a question mark over 2400m she may challenge based on talent alone.
Number 3 - Planet Rock (6) - Back to her best when winning on Derby Day in the Hawkes Bay. She is an interesting one, I had to drop her down the list last time because she had two consecutive fourths, however I really felt that the Royal Stakes was justified because of the backing up from the week before and it was her first 2000m start. The following start in the Sir Tristram fillies I felt there were excuses, but it was maybe just not her day, she also finished behind three very good fillies. She is clearly class and can really prove it by beating a top Oak's field this weekend.
Number 2 - Rock'n'Pop (1) - Is it possible I have actually underrated him all year? How do you underrate a Group 1 winner? But he ran out a very strong Derby, prior to this the 3rd at Group 1 level was again excellent. The only time he didn't really fire was on a slow track in a meaningless race. I am still not even sure the distance or conditions for the Derby were really ideal, but he just showed his considerable talent.
Number 1 - Silent Achiever (4) - What more can I say? no, seriously, I have probably written about 5000+ words about her since December. She was amazing on the 3rd, it was a great win. It will be great to see what she can do in Australia. Is she as good as Jimmy Choux was last year? hard to say, I will need to think about that. I feel another breakdown coming on (although I was wrong about the last one I wrote). She is a different horse than Jimmy Choux, she was always going to get better as we got up to 2400m, but maybe we will see them against each other next year over 2000m, that could be interesting. My gut says that Jimmy is better, but even if she is only as good as King's Rose, we are still looking at what will be an interesting 4YO year.
Value Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed, although I can say I will be Glad to see them when they are.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed
Thursday, 8 March 2012
James McDonald's Quest for the Cup week Sweep
This is now a story. There was always a possibility it would become one and in some ways the two Group 1's McDonald has won were the easier of the two he will face this week. They were the ones he was probably expected to win. In other ways they were harder, there was enough that went wrong before and during those races that the victories were remarkable. He will ride Scarlett Lady and Rollout the Carpet on Saturday in his quest to sweep the Auckland Cup week Group 1's.
James McDonald calls Ellerslie his favourite track. I don't think anyone would disagree with him. Durham Town, Silent Achiever, Fix, Peridot, Between the Beats, and Shez Sensational have won this Auckland Cup week with him on board. Fix was another in a long line of wins in the first race of the day at Ellerslie yesterday. His strike rate is currently a ridiculous 4.41, that should mean with the nine rides he currently has booked for Saturday there are two winners in that group, I am sure the ones he wants the most are the Diamond Stakes and the New Zealand Stakes.
The New Zealand Derby last Saturday, James McDonald was riding Silent Achiever. The ground was possibly not as suitable as they would have liked, there was not a lot of pace in the race for Silent Achiever a horse who typically likes to race towards the back of the pack. It was evident from the relief shown by Roger James when they interviewed him after the victory that although he felt he had the horse with the most talent, he was not sure if things were lining up exactly how he wanted. After the race James McDonald admitted he didn't ride exactly to instructions and Silent Achiever slipped leaving the gates, judging from the after race comments analysts felt that possibly Silent Achiever hit the front earlier than she normally would have. What I liked about the ride was the point about 1400m to go when she was third from last and James McDonald moved her up, three wide, but closer to the pace. As they hit the 800m mark there is probably only 9 runners ahead of him, it was an excellent place for him to be when they started the sprint for home. As it was she won comfortably, but if he had been further back who knows, maybe she gets blocked or simply out sprinted. He really seemed to always have that race under his control from about 350m, every time another runner battled closer he asked her for more and she gave it.
In the Auckland Cup yesterday, as trainer Allan Sharrock said in his interview after the race "what else could go wrong" (in the video in the link, you need to sign up to view it, but it is free). He even basically said that the rain that had started about an hour before the race had put him off having a big bet on the horse because of the uncertainty in the conditions. Given what we saw on Saturday it would be hard not to be concerned at that point. During the running of the race George Simon made several comments about the position of Shez Sensational. "the favourite's under a ride" was his call as James McDonald went to work on her about 450m to go, he was probably one of the first Jockeys to make a move in the race. He then had to work a bit to find a hole, but Shez Sensational responded when he finally did. George Simon mentions she is warming up as they pass the 300m mark, but she really hits her stride with about 200m to go and just had too much top speed chasing down Spiro on the line.
Clearly we are looking at a very talented Filly and Mare, but everything didn't go their way, and those were very strong rides to allow the horses to show their best.
Now the question remains, can he go four for four?
The next Auckland Cup week Group 1 is the first Group 1 for the Two year olds the Diamond Stakes over 1200m. James McDonald is riding equal second favourite Rollout the carpet. There is a lot of talent in this race when you look at Choice Bro, Warhorse, Travino, Silk Pins and Croatia amongst others.
Choice Bro has shown eye catching finishes in the Karaka Million (fourth) and winning over Ockhams Razor last start at Taranaki. He has had the benefit of good draws to date and has performed best on a good track, he may not have either on Saturday. The blinkers which came on last start seemed to make a difference. He will be finishing big, but probably down the outside as opposed to the inside as in recent starts.
Warhorse is having his first start in over a month, however he has tended to race with these kind of gaps to date in his career so that should not effect him. A Group 3 winner with talent, he really charged home in the Karaka Million. He is already establishing a strong record at Ellerslie and his win there on New Years day was on a rain effected track. He has the benefit of a better draw so might be able to start his run from a handier position this time.
Travino had his first start back in New Zealand in the Matamata Slipper two weeks ago. The dead track gave him only his second non-win in the New Zealand since his first start (on a slow track). That was his first start in about 6 weeks, his wins have come with 14days, 14days and 21days rest, so expect a better showing here. He has drawn barrier one which should allow him to stay handy $9 fixed odds seems pretty good value if the rain stays away.
Croatia is having his third start. After winning on debut he was able to show a big finish to behind Irish Rebel and Magic Shaft. He has to be confided a contender here.
Mai Guru is having his first start since his fifth in the Karaka Million. I was slightly surprised by that fifth, he seemed to outperform other horses who I might have expected better from. This race is just stacked and he will have to show improvement to finish ahead of Silk Pins, Choice Bro, and Warhorse.
Roof of Reckoning is a maiden runner who was able to show something at Matamata, hard to know if possibly wet ground might help. He looks reasonably talented, but there are some classy runners to beat here.
King Zeus is having his second start and will go from barrier 6. He seemed to improve with trialing and was favourite in his first start. He was beaten by Fix over 1000m, who went on to have a good win on Auckland Cup day. King Zeus showed good fight but was worn down late. I suspect he may be fitter for the run and 1200m may suit.
Rollout the Carpet for James McDonald has drawn 11, but is coming off a form line which looks the same in the race book (1 and 1 been the results of his last two runs). The second win was in the Matamata Breeders Stakes at Group 2 level. She has beaten the fillies, so the question becomes can she beat the boys too? She is good and has looked it in her last two starts. Wetness underfoot does not appear to be an issue. Barrier number 11 may not be a problem if she gets out as well as she has recently, she will want to be handy and in a position to lead them home.
Seleno was very eye catching at New Plymouth last start, she was wide and back and simply flew home. If the track is wet it will suit and you suspect that 2nd up may help. The draw should suit and if she is closer to them starting her run, look out!
Silk Pins was great in the Karaka Million. Before the Karaka Million her record is deceiving, she didn't get a lot of luck in those races. Was third in the Matamata breeders stakes and didn't look as good that day. Happy to give her a chance, but I have a concern on wet ground based on the slow track New Years day at Ellerslie.
Soriano is currently undefeated. She was a winner late last week at Te Rapa. She is a bit of an enigma here, the win looked very good, but there is a lot of solid exposed form here.
Coat du Roan was good when 6th at Taranaki, was also unlucky when caught up by Ockham's Razor. Throw that race out and there is less to go on. She is almost certainly better than a $41 chance, but you could only take her on potential. Chateauneuf Dupape ran third in this race last year, as that is in the Rhone region maybe a horse called Coat du Roan can feature this year.
The Picks (I am assuming this forecast rain clears and we get back to a good or dead track)
First - Warhorse - This looks much more suitable than the Karaka Million.
Second - Rollout the Carpet - Looks talented, I have spent 1,500 words explaining how this could be Jame McDonald's week.
Third - Choice Bro - Like Rollout the Carpet the draw is a concern, there is no doubt of the talent. He will be coming on at the end.
Fourth - Seleno - Big finish, if she was 6th instead of 9th back she may have won, she will be closer from barrier 2.
In the New Zealand Stakes James McDonald will ride Scarlett Lady against a strong Group 1 field. Veyron is certainly the most dangerous after winning back to back Group 1's and showing that the step to middle distance is not so big after-all on Boxing Day, he loves this track and will be very hard to beat.
Veyron all but eliminated middle distance questions on Boxing Day. I also think his build up to this race has been far better than the build up to boxing day. He will handle all tracks so weather concerns should not be an issue.
Hold it Harvey is always consistent at Group 1 level. He came for them late when stepping back to 1600m at Otaki and was second to Shez Sensational at Te Rapa before that. This is a rare trip to Ellerslie and right handed, but he is hitting the strongest part of his campaign and he is better than when he was last here boxing day 2010.
Doctor Fremantle was good for a surprising third here on Boxing Day. He didn't get a lot of breaks last time in Hamilton. This is a big ask but he is capable of running in the money.
Showcause has basically been weighted out of the Open Handicap level (although it would have been interesting to see him yesterday). Although he didn't come back the strongest at New Plymouth that is not surprising. He is yet to feature second up either, a stat which is countered by his strong Ellerslie record. He gets better third up, and you might expect he can do something here but not enough to win.
Vosne Romanee won this race two years ago and surprised for a place last year. His last two starts have actually shown a bit of a (relative) resurgence in the nine year old gelding. Don't completely dismiss for old times sake, but there are a lot of better places for your money.
Riomoral has been a big improver over the last couple of months. WFA Group 1 seems a bit optimistic, but the steps towards middle distance have suited him.
Postmans Daughter probably needed a run between the Darci Brahma and this and she got in over 1600m in a Group 1 at Otaki. That was never going to be the ideal race for her but this is definitely where she will look at home. She seems to respond better to 2000m+ and going right handed, drawn barrier 1 will help too. This race looks perfectly set up for her, but it is hard to see her beating Veyron or Scarlett Lady.
Lady Kipling performed very strongly over 1600m at Otaki. She had her first win at Ellerslie two starts back but has twice been fourth at Group 1 level. She has been very consistent recently and the move up to 2000m should put her in a good position.
Scarlett Lady will face her first big test since returning from injury. If this race was run in the spring she probably would have been sole favourite. She has had 1 run back for 1 win but this is tougher. 2000m will surely suit her and she wont mind any rain. She has always been consistent, it was really unfortunate to see injury derailing her spring because she really could have made some noise in Melbourne last year.
Inferno is making her first trip to the big city following a pretty strong run in Matamata last start. This will be a major test but the distance should suit and around 8th up should see her peaking. It is a big ask.
Shuka is trying to become the first 3YO to win an Open level Group 1 this season. Twice in his career he has backed up in under a week and he has run second both times. The step back to 2000m should assist his chances. He is an absolute winning chance here, but yet again he might just be facing too much talent, which has been the story of his career to date.
I hate to go chalk, but it is hard to look past the favourites in this race. Who will win? toss a coin, it could be that close. We have not seen a big Group 1 shock this year, The Party Stand was somewhat of a shock winning this last year.
The Picks
First - Veyron - It just feels like he has put in the work to establish himself as favourite. Winning back to back Group 1's. The 2000m looks right for him and that Ellerslie record is superb.
Second - Scarlett Lady - Can win this based just on class. I think she will take a couple more races to get back to her absolute best, not sure where that will be, Australia?
Third - Postmans Daughter - I think the return to right handed should suit enough for her to improve on the Waikato run.
Fourth - Lady Kipling - Talent on the rise, could be the Cup week shock.
That was tough, I switched 1 and two back and forth several times and also changed up third and fourth with the mares and Hold it Harvey. I think it would pay to keep them safe on the weekend.
James McDonald calls Ellerslie his favourite track. I don't think anyone would disagree with him. Durham Town, Silent Achiever, Fix, Peridot, Between the Beats, and Shez Sensational have won this Auckland Cup week with him on board. Fix was another in a long line of wins in the first race of the day at Ellerslie yesterday. His strike rate is currently a ridiculous 4.41, that should mean with the nine rides he currently has booked for Saturday there are two winners in that group, I am sure the ones he wants the most are the Diamond Stakes and the New Zealand Stakes.
The New Zealand Derby last Saturday, James McDonald was riding Silent Achiever. The ground was possibly not as suitable as they would have liked, there was not a lot of pace in the race for Silent Achiever a horse who typically likes to race towards the back of the pack. It was evident from the relief shown by Roger James when they interviewed him after the victory that although he felt he had the horse with the most talent, he was not sure if things were lining up exactly how he wanted. After the race James McDonald admitted he didn't ride exactly to instructions and Silent Achiever slipped leaving the gates, judging from the after race comments analysts felt that possibly Silent Achiever hit the front earlier than she normally would have. What I liked about the ride was the point about 1400m to go when she was third from last and James McDonald moved her up, three wide, but closer to the pace. As they hit the 800m mark there is probably only 9 runners ahead of him, it was an excellent place for him to be when they started the sprint for home. As it was she won comfortably, but if he had been further back who knows, maybe she gets blocked or simply out sprinted. He really seemed to always have that race under his control from about 350m, every time another runner battled closer he asked her for more and she gave it.
In the Auckland Cup yesterday, as trainer Allan Sharrock said in his interview after the race "what else could go wrong" (in the video in the link, you need to sign up to view it, but it is free). He even basically said that the rain that had started about an hour before the race had put him off having a big bet on the horse because of the uncertainty in the conditions. Given what we saw on Saturday it would be hard not to be concerned at that point. During the running of the race George Simon made several comments about the position of Shez Sensational. "the favourite's under a ride" was his call as James McDonald went to work on her about 450m to go, he was probably one of the first Jockeys to make a move in the race. He then had to work a bit to find a hole, but Shez Sensational responded when he finally did. George Simon mentions she is warming up as they pass the 300m mark, but she really hits her stride with about 200m to go and just had too much top speed chasing down Spiro on the line.
Clearly we are looking at a very talented Filly and Mare, but everything didn't go their way, and those were very strong rides to allow the horses to show their best.
Now the question remains, can he go four for four?
The next Auckland Cup week Group 1 is the first Group 1 for the Two year olds the Diamond Stakes over 1200m. James McDonald is riding equal second favourite Rollout the carpet. There is a lot of talent in this race when you look at Choice Bro, Warhorse, Travino, Silk Pins and Croatia amongst others.
Choice Bro has shown eye catching finishes in the Karaka Million (fourth) and winning over Ockhams Razor last start at Taranaki. He has had the benefit of good draws to date and has performed best on a good track, he may not have either on Saturday. The blinkers which came on last start seemed to make a difference. He will be finishing big, but probably down the outside as opposed to the inside as in recent starts.
Warhorse is having his first start in over a month, however he has tended to race with these kind of gaps to date in his career so that should not effect him. A Group 3 winner with talent, he really charged home in the Karaka Million. He is already establishing a strong record at Ellerslie and his win there on New Years day was on a rain effected track. He has the benefit of a better draw so might be able to start his run from a handier position this time.
Travino had his first start back in New Zealand in the Matamata Slipper two weeks ago. The dead track gave him only his second non-win in the New Zealand since his first start (on a slow track). That was his first start in about 6 weeks, his wins have come with 14days, 14days and 21days rest, so expect a better showing here. He has drawn barrier one which should allow him to stay handy $9 fixed odds seems pretty good value if the rain stays away.
Croatia is having his third start. After winning on debut he was able to show a big finish to behind Irish Rebel and Magic Shaft. He has to be confided a contender here.
Mai Guru is having his first start since his fifth in the Karaka Million. I was slightly surprised by that fifth, he seemed to outperform other horses who I might have expected better from. This race is just stacked and he will have to show improvement to finish ahead of Silk Pins, Choice Bro, and Warhorse.
Roof of Reckoning is a maiden runner who was able to show something at Matamata, hard to know if possibly wet ground might help. He looks reasonably talented, but there are some classy runners to beat here.
King Zeus is having his second start and will go from barrier 6. He seemed to improve with trialing and was favourite in his first start. He was beaten by Fix over 1000m, who went on to have a good win on Auckland Cup day. King Zeus showed good fight but was worn down late. I suspect he may be fitter for the run and 1200m may suit.
Rollout the Carpet for James McDonald has drawn 11, but is coming off a form line which looks the same in the race book (1 and 1 been the results of his last two runs). The second win was in the Matamata Breeders Stakes at Group 2 level. She has beaten the fillies, so the question becomes can she beat the boys too? She is good and has looked it in her last two starts. Wetness underfoot does not appear to be an issue. Barrier number 11 may not be a problem if she gets out as well as she has recently, she will want to be handy and in a position to lead them home.
Seleno was very eye catching at New Plymouth last start, she was wide and back and simply flew home. If the track is wet it will suit and you suspect that 2nd up may help. The draw should suit and if she is closer to them starting her run, look out!
Silk Pins was great in the Karaka Million. Before the Karaka Million her record is deceiving, she didn't get a lot of luck in those races. Was third in the Matamata breeders stakes and didn't look as good that day. Happy to give her a chance, but I have a concern on wet ground based on the slow track New Years day at Ellerslie.
Soriano is currently undefeated. She was a winner late last week at Te Rapa. She is a bit of an enigma here, the win looked very good, but there is a lot of solid exposed form here.
Coat du Roan was good when 6th at Taranaki, was also unlucky when caught up by Ockham's Razor. Throw that race out and there is less to go on. She is almost certainly better than a $41 chance, but you could only take her on potential. Chateauneuf Dupape ran third in this race last year, as that is in the Rhone region maybe a horse called Coat du Roan can feature this year.
The Picks (I am assuming this forecast rain clears and we get back to a good or dead track)
First - Warhorse - This looks much more suitable than the Karaka Million.
Second - Rollout the Carpet - Looks talented, I have spent 1,500 words explaining how this could be Jame McDonald's week.
Third - Choice Bro - Like Rollout the Carpet the draw is a concern, there is no doubt of the talent. He will be coming on at the end.
Fourth - Seleno - Big finish, if she was 6th instead of 9th back she may have won, she will be closer from barrier 2.
In the New Zealand Stakes James McDonald will ride Scarlett Lady against a strong Group 1 field. Veyron is certainly the most dangerous after winning back to back Group 1's and showing that the step to middle distance is not so big after-all on Boxing Day, he loves this track and will be very hard to beat.
Veyron all but eliminated middle distance questions on Boxing Day. I also think his build up to this race has been far better than the build up to boxing day. He will handle all tracks so weather concerns should not be an issue.
Hold it Harvey is always consistent at Group 1 level. He came for them late when stepping back to 1600m at Otaki and was second to Shez Sensational at Te Rapa before that. This is a rare trip to Ellerslie and right handed, but he is hitting the strongest part of his campaign and he is better than when he was last here boxing day 2010.
Doctor Fremantle was good for a surprising third here on Boxing Day. He didn't get a lot of breaks last time in Hamilton. This is a big ask but he is capable of running in the money.
Showcause has basically been weighted out of the Open Handicap level (although it would have been interesting to see him yesterday). Although he didn't come back the strongest at New Plymouth that is not surprising. He is yet to feature second up either, a stat which is countered by his strong Ellerslie record. He gets better third up, and you might expect he can do something here but not enough to win.
Vosne Romanee won this race two years ago and surprised for a place last year. His last two starts have actually shown a bit of a (relative) resurgence in the nine year old gelding. Don't completely dismiss for old times sake, but there are a lot of better places for your money.
Riomoral has been a big improver over the last couple of months. WFA Group 1 seems a bit optimistic, but the steps towards middle distance have suited him.
Postmans Daughter probably needed a run between the Darci Brahma and this and she got in over 1600m in a Group 1 at Otaki. That was never going to be the ideal race for her but this is definitely where she will look at home. She seems to respond better to 2000m+ and going right handed, drawn barrier 1 will help too. This race looks perfectly set up for her, but it is hard to see her beating Veyron or Scarlett Lady.
Lady Kipling performed very strongly over 1600m at Otaki. She had her first win at Ellerslie two starts back but has twice been fourth at Group 1 level. She has been very consistent recently and the move up to 2000m should put her in a good position.
Scarlett Lady will face her first big test since returning from injury. If this race was run in the spring she probably would have been sole favourite. She has had 1 run back for 1 win but this is tougher. 2000m will surely suit her and she wont mind any rain. She has always been consistent, it was really unfortunate to see injury derailing her spring because she really could have made some noise in Melbourne last year.
Inferno is making her first trip to the big city following a pretty strong run in Matamata last start. This will be a major test but the distance should suit and around 8th up should see her peaking. It is a big ask.
Shuka is trying to become the first 3YO to win an Open level Group 1 this season. Twice in his career he has backed up in under a week and he has run second both times. The step back to 2000m should assist his chances. He is an absolute winning chance here, but yet again he might just be facing too much talent, which has been the story of his career to date.
I hate to go chalk, but it is hard to look past the favourites in this race. Who will win? toss a coin, it could be that close. We have not seen a big Group 1 shock this year, The Party Stand was somewhat of a shock winning this last year.
The Picks
First - Veyron - It just feels like he has put in the work to establish himself as favourite. Winning back to back Group 1's. The 2000m looks right for him and that Ellerslie record is superb.
Second - Scarlett Lady - Can win this based just on class. I think she will take a couple more races to get back to her absolute best, not sure where that will be, Australia?
Third - Postmans Daughter - I think the return to right handed should suit enough for her to improve on the Waikato run.
Fourth - Lady Kipling - Talent on the rise, could be the Cup week shock.
That was tough, I switched 1 and two back and forth several times and also changed up third and fourth with the mares and Hold it Harvey. I think it would pay to keep them safe on the weekend.
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