We approach the final Group 1 of the season with the same favourite as we approached the first Group 1 of the season. Veyron has had a great year, but if he was to carry the same weight as Jimmy Choux I don't think this would be a debate, Green Supreme was great a couple of weeks ago but is not yet at the class of these other two. The handicap conditions make this race very competitive and as you scroll down the list of nominees you see a lot of runners at their respective weight who can be competitive. The draw has made this race interesting, as had the threat of rain (I am going to try to avoid making a weather prediction this week, as most weeks I am wrong).
All things been equal Jimmy Choux wins this race. Critics will point to his first up record, but his last fresh start was a close second behind Mufhasa at Group 1 level, this fresh start may be slightly different because of his upcoming trip to Australia and this may be just a run to shake off the cobwebs and get him ready for those races. I don't think any ground will be an issue for Jimmy Choux, he has drawn 10, which is not a concern.
Veyron has had a great year, he will carry 2kg less than Jimmy Choux, he was a close second behind Scarlett Lady last start (who would have been considered by many on par with JC last spring before her injury). This was shaping up like a great race as Veyron also can handle all conditions, he has a fantastic record at Ellerslie, loves 1600m, goes very well after a bit of freshening. If the 2kg penalty was not enough to make you consider these two equal the barrier draw has really worked against Veyron and brings things back towards Jimmy Choux's favour.
Green Supreme is the other candidate with great potential. He won easily over 1400m last start and will take on the extra 200m here. He looked very good building up over ground before his 6th in the Wellington Cup. His 1600m and Auckland records and sound, and he has won twice on slow tracks. The handicap conditions will give him 55kg to carry which is only 500 grams more than he carried to victory last start. How good is he relative to Jimmy and Veyron is the big unknown. He has won carrying more at lower grades over the past couple of months, he has quickly risen through the grades and is suited to these Open handicap conditions, he is very well drawn to be a major factor.
There are two other runners backing up from last weeks Group 1, the handicap conditions should suit both Postman's Daughter and Fleur de Lune. Fleur de Lune was very close to a win last week, and has secured a good draw in this big field. Postman's Daughter will be .5kg better off this week in weight relative to FdL, who will carry 2.5kg less that the set weight from last week. Postman's Daughter was consistent before her 8th last week and might be ready for a break, Fleur de Lune seems to be coming on and should be well set for this despite the run last week. A little softness underfoot should not concern either runner, FdL goes better at Ellerslie. Both are contenders here, but Fleur de Lune is the better of the two, I am still not sure she will be able to better Green Supreme given the similar weights the two will carry.
Vonusti is the other Group 1 winner in the race (Unless Time Keeper makes it in), he is not really in that Group 1 form, and has not really been as consistent since Boxing Day. The distance he has run over has gone up and down over the last few months, he is pretty well weighted at 55.5kg and should be set for 1600m right now, he is always a danger at Ellerslie.
Others who stand out include Justanexcuse who seems to be getting back to close to his best form. He has been carrying significantly more since the Coupland's Mile which was a comparable weight. Most of his experience is going left but he did win well under a big weight last start. Might be one for odds if the rain comes. He meets Green Supreme relatively 1kg better off than when the two met last with Green Supreme winning by 1 length, is that enough to make this interesting?
It has been about 18 months since Atom Cat won his last race. However he might be worth considering if the conditions take a turn down. He enjoys Ellerslie, has a cosy barrier 4th draw, and has a decent 2nd up record. Actually most of Atom Cat's victories have come early in campaigns, so the resuming 4th possibly showed some promise as it relates to this race. He is carrying 53.5kg in this field which is a very significant light weight.
Of the Richard Collett trained runners I am leaning towards Riotous, he has a weight advantage over his stablemate Alegrio and is drawn better to really compete. Both have similar Ellerslie records, and I imagine that if it is wet the weight advantage should equalise them. I really enjoyed the win here last start, I would stay away if wet, but 52kg compares well to the second here during Auckland Cup week.
Steel Giant is a pretty good horse to only carry 52kg here. A course and distance win on a rain effected track was decent but the field was ripped up with scratchings that day. I wouldn't consider him on a wet track, the draw is a put off and at weights Justanexcuse is effectively dropping the same amount after beating him soundly last start.
Sum Up has been pretty good this season. 1600m is probably short of his best distance, but at weight on a wet track might give some value. This would be by far the biggest win of his career, but he has gone close in decent races and was not a disgrace at Group 1 level. He likes it right handed and recent performances at Ellerslie have shown merit.
Jetset Lad was another I liked, but was put off by the draw. 1600m should really suit, he can factor, but I cant see him winning.
When it comes down to making picks I really think it will depend on how fit Jimmy Choux is and how he will carry that big weight. I think he is better here than Veyron because of Veyron's draw, the next biggest threat is Green Supreme (considering I think he is more suited than Fleur de Lune), I am simply not sure how to compare these two runners. Overall record there is no comparison, at the same weight I would like Jimmy all day. In regard to Green Supreme he has still not really faced a challenge on this level, his next biggest challenge was the Wellington Cup recently, before this it was at 3rd at Group 1 level at age 3, although he has been winning fairly handily this prep, the field he will face on Saturday is very strong. He beat a number of runners here last start, but I still feel like despite the Jimmy Choux question marks I have to look his way in this race, he has been there before and is a proven commodity.
First - Jimmy Choux
Second - Green Supreme
Third - Veyron - He is in great form and loves Ellerslie
Fourth - Atom Cat - I like him more if the rain comes.
Showing posts with label Veyron. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Veyron. Show all posts
Thursday, 12 April 2012
Friday, 23 March 2012
New Zealand Horse of the Year contenders
I have been looking for something to write about this week. Although I am very excited about the racing at Rosehill this weekend and for some reason the Japan Trophy meeting at Tauranga is one which always excites me, I am not sure I have much to say about these races.
The season feels like it is winding up, there are still three group 1's this year in New Zealand and plenty of horses heading to Australia for the Sydney Carnival and there are always a number who head to Queensland in the Winter. It has been such a good year for a number of horses I got to thinking who would be my horse of the year right now? When I came up with my answer I realised that horse may be too far ahead to catch. What would need to happen over the next couple of months to change my opinion?
If the season finished now, there is little doubt in my mind that the best performing horse from New Zealand this year has been Mufhasa. His resume includes two Group 1 wins in New Zealand (Makfi Challenge Stakes and the Captain Cook Stakes) as well as two in Australia (Toorak Handicap and the Futurity Stakes), he also finished second in two Group 1 Races in New Zealand (Winsor Park Plate and the Waikato Draft Sprint), his 'worst' performance has been second at Group 3 level in the Tauranga Stakes. The only three horses have to finish a race ahead of him this year are Jimmy Choux, Veyron (both 2 time New Zealand Group 1 winners this year) and Lady Chaparral. That is a very decent six month stretch. There may be more to come in Sydney this Autumn. Is that the best season by any Kiwi horse? I don't think there is anything which can top this now, but could anything top it by year end?
Could a Two Year Old win?
Conceivably, yes. This year, no. Even if Warhorse is able to win a second Group 1 it would be impossible to put his body of work ahead of Mufhasa. Even if a unrecognised or under-recognised NZ 2YO travelled to Australia in the winter and won multiple Group 1's it still might not be enough. I am yet to read of any plans for any of the "leading" 2YO talent to attempt this, so we can stack this in the very unlikely pile.
Who is the top 3YO contender?
There have been five 3YO Group 1 Races, we have had five different winners. Only one horse (Rock'n'Pop) has run in the top three of more than one of these races. The other two stand out 3YO's this year (when you look at their whole body of work) are Planet Rock and Silent Achiever, the next tier includes Artistic and Ocean Park. I know none of these have impressed like Mufhasa thus far this season, I think the top New Zealand three year old may come down to Australian performances, but will any of these performances be sufficient to unseat current favourite Mufhasa? If Silent Achiever is able to win both the Rosehill Guineas and the Australia Derby (assuming that is where she ends up), what if Artistic is able to do something in Queensland, as the Oaks appears a target, Ocean Park looked good first start in Australia, he might be a Guineas or even Derby threat, and there is always the chance of another top chance emerging over the Winter like Shez Sinsational and Scarlett Lady did last year, could a horse like Quintessential challenge? I am not sure Silent Achiever will be best suited in the Guineas, but should be a threat over Oaks or Derby distance. However, even with those feathers in her cap it is hard to see people considering her as having a better year than Mufhasa.
Group 1 Winners galore
Scarlett Lady had the potential to sew up this horse of the year status in the Spring but injury prevented this. She is currently in Australia and one would assume she is aiming for a BMW or a Sydney Cup or something similar. Her resume for 2011/12 is short, but includes a 2000m Group 1 victory during Auckland Cup week. Strong results over in Australia could see her contend for horse of the year, but there is a lot of ground to make up.
Veyron finished off a dominant 2011 with a win in the Easter Handicap capturing his first Group 1 in the process. He started the new season with a fourth first up at Open Handicap level in November, as we approach April that is still his worst result of the season. Since then he has won four races and finished second in two with two Group 1 wins and two seconds over 2000m also at Group 1 level. I would not have expected him to show that kind of talent over 2000m, but it is really testament to his ability. Had he captured those other two Group 1's he may even be the favourite to be horse of the year. Thus far he is not on the exported horses list for March, so it is not clear if he will run in Australia this year.
Shez Sinsational didn't begin the 2011/12 season spectacularly, running 2nd and 3rd over 1400m in Rating 90 company and 5th in a 1600m Group 3 race. However, the Queensland Oaks and Derby place-getter showed that more ground was what she craved running 2nd in the Cal Isuzu Stakes over 1600m at Group 2 level and then dominating the 2000m WFA category winning both the Zabeel Classic and the Darci Brahma International. Handicap conditions and wet ground caused a worry when third in the Nathan's Memorial but her third Group 1 win was impressive in the Auckland Cup. That alone is probably not enough to have her as horse of the year over Mufhasa, however there are plenty of options available to her as to where she might race next.
Jimmy Choux has two Group 1 wins in New Zealand this year (Windsor Park Plate and the Spring Classic), he was runner up in the first of the three "triple crown" races to Mufhasa. He was runner up in the Cox Plate and fourth in the Emirates Mile. He was invited to the Hong Kong Mile, he ran ninth, but even accepting an invitation is a big deal. He will have one more start in New Zealand (probably) this year in the Easter Handicap, clearly Handicap conditions may not be ideal, but one would think he has the talent even at a significant weight disadvantage. He will then likely head to Australia for more Group 1's. Would a third New Zealand Group 1 and one or two Aussie Group 1's make him the best Kiwi horse this year? maybe, it really depends on how Mufhasa goes, however at this point it his his 'Race' to lose.
The season feels like it is winding up, there are still three group 1's this year in New Zealand and plenty of horses heading to Australia for the Sydney Carnival and there are always a number who head to Queensland in the Winter. It has been such a good year for a number of horses I got to thinking who would be my horse of the year right now? When I came up with my answer I realised that horse may be too far ahead to catch. What would need to happen over the next couple of months to change my opinion?
If the season finished now, there is little doubt in my mind that the best performing horse from New Zealand this year has been Mufhasa. His resume includes two Group 1 wins in New Zealand (Makfi Challenge Stakes and the Captain Cook Stakes) as well as two in Australia (Toorak Handicap and the Futurity Stakes), he also finished second in two Group 1 Races in New Zealand (Winsor Park Plate and the Waikato Draft Sprint), his 'worst' performance has been second at Group 3 level in the Tauranga Stakes. The only three horses have to finish a race ahead of him this year are Jimmy Choux, Veyron (both 2 time New Zealand Group 1 winners this year) and Lady Chaparral. That is a very decent six month stretch. There may be more to come in Sydney this Autumn. Is that the best season by any Kiwi horse? I don't think there is anything which can top this now, but could anything top it by year end?
Could a Two Year Old win?
Conceivably, yes. This year, no. Even if Warhorse is able to win a second Group 1 it would be impossible to put his body of work ahead of Mufhasa. Even if a unrecognised or under-recognised NZ 2YO travelled to Australia in the winter and won multiple Group 1's it still might not be enough. I am yet to read of any plans for any of the "leading" 2YO talent to attempt this, so we can stack this in the very unlikely pile.
Who is the top 3YO contender?
There have been five 3YO Group 1 Races, we have had five different winners. Only one horse (Rock'n'Pop) has run in the top three of more than one of these races. The other two stand out 3YO's this year (when you look at their whole body of work) are Planet Rock and Silent Achiever, the next tier includes Artistic and Ocean Park. I know none of these have impressed like Mufhasa thus far this season, I think the top New Zealand three year old may come down to Australian performances, but will any of these performances be sufficient to unseat current favourite Mufhasa? If Silent Achiever is able to win both the Rosehill Guineas and the Australia Derby (assuming that is where she ends up), what if Artistic is able to do something in Queensland, as the Oaks appears a target, Ocean Park looked good first start in Australia, he might be a Guineas or even Derby threat, and there is always the chance of another top chance emerging over the Winter like Shez Sinsational and Scarlett Lady did last year, could a horse like Quintessential challenge? I am not sure Silent Achiever will be best suited in the Guineas, but should be a threat over Oaks or Derby distance. However, even with those feathers in her cap it is hard to see people considering her as having a better year than Mufhasa.
Group 1 Winners galore
Scarlett Lady had the potential to sew up this horse of the year status in the Spring but injury prevented this. She is currently in Australia and one would assume she is aiming for a BMW or a Sydney Cup or something similar. Her resume for 2011/12 is short, but includes a 2000m Group 1 victory during Auckland Cup week. Strong results over in Australia could see her contend for horse of the year, but there is a lot of ground to make up.
Veyron finished off a dominant 2011 with a win in the Easter Handicap capturing his first Group 1 in the process. He started the new season with a fourth first up at Open Handicap level in November, as we approach April that is still his worst result of the season. Since then he has won four races and finished second in two with two Group 1 wins and two seconds over 2000m also at Group 1 level. I would not have expected him to show that kind of talent over 2000m, but it is really testament to his ability. Had he captured those other two Group 1's he may even be the favourite to be horse of the year. Thus far he is not on the exported horses list for March, so it is not clear if he will run in Australia this year.
Shez Sinsational didn't begin the 2011/12 season spectacularly, running 2nd and 3rd over 1400m in Rating 90 company and 5th in a 1600m Group 3 race. However, the Queensland Oaks and Derby place-getter showed that more ground was what she craved running 2nd in the Cal Isuzu Stakes over 1600m at Group 2 level and then dominating the 2000m WFA category winning both the Zabeel Classic and the Darci Brahma International. Handicap conditions and wet ground caused a worry when third in the Nathan's Memorial but her third Group 1 win was impressive in the Auckland Cup. That alone is probably not enough to have her as horse of the year over Mufhasa, however there are plenty of options available to her as to where she might race next.
Jimmy Choux has two Group 1 wins in New Zealand this year (Windsor Park Plate and the Spring Classic), he was runner up in the first of the three "triple crown" races to Mufhasa. He was runner up in the Cox Plate and fourth in the Emirates Mile. He was invited to the Hong Kong Mile, he ran ninth, but even accepting an invitation is a big deal. He will have one more start in New Zealand (probably) this year in the Easter Handicap, clearly Handicap conditions may not be ideal, but one would think he has the talent even at a significant weight disadvantage. He will then likely head to Australia for more Group 1's. Would a third New Zealand Group 1 and one or two Aussie Group 1's make him the best Kiwi horse this year? maybe, it really depends on how Mufhasa goes, however at this point it his his 'Race' to lose.
Thursday, 8 March 2012
James McDonald's Quest for the Cup week Sweep
This is now a story. There was always a possibility it would become one and in some ways the two Group 1's McDonald has won were the easier of the two he will face this week. They were the ones he was probably expected to win. In other ways they were harder, there was enough that went wrong before and during those races that the victories were remarkable. He will ride Scarlett Lady and Rollout the Carpet on Saturday in his quest to sweep the Auckland Cup week Group 1's.
James McDonald calls Ellerslie his favourite track. I don't think anyone would disagree with him. Durham Town, Silent Achiever, Fix, Peridot, Between the Beats, and Shez Sensational have won this Auckland Cup week with him on board. Fix was another in a long line of wins in the first race of the day at Ellerslie yesterday. His strike rate is currently a ridiculous 4.41, that should mean with the nine rides he currently has booked for Saturday there are two winners in that group, I am sure the ones he wants the most are the Diamond Stakes and the New Zealand Stakes.
The New Zealand Derby last Saturday, James McDonald was riding Silent Achiever. The ground was possibly not as suitable as they would have liked, there was not a lot of pace in the race for Silent Achiever a horse who typically likes to race towards the back of the pack. It was evident from the relief shown by Roger James when they interviewed him after the victory that although he felt he had the horse with the most talent, he was not sure if things were lining up exactly how he wanted. After the race James McDonald admitted he didn't ride exactly to instructions and Silent Achiever slipped leaving the gates, judging from the after race comments analysts felt that possibly Silent Achiever hit the front earlier than she normally would have. What I liked about the ride was the point about 1400m to go when she was third from last and James McDonald moved her up, three wide, but closer to the pace. As they hit the 800m mark there is probably only 9 runners ahead of him, it was an excellent place for him to be when they started the sprint for home. As it was she won comfortably, but if he had been further back who knows, maybe she gets blocked or simply out sprinted. He really seemed to always have that race under his control from about 350m, every time another runner battled closer he asked her for more and she gave it.
In the Auckland Cup yesterday, as trainer Allan Sharrock said in his interview after the race "what else could go wrong" (in the video in the link, you need to sign up to view it, but it is free). He even basically said that the rain that had started about an hour before the race had put him off having a big bet on the horse because of the uncertainty in the conditions. Given what we saw on Saturday it would be hard not to be concerned at that point. During the running of the race George Simon made several comments about the position of Shez Sensational. "the favourite's under a ride" was his call as James McDonald went to work on her about 450m to go, he was probably one of the first Jockeys to make a move in the race. He then had to work a bit to find a hole, but Shez Sensational responded when he finally did. George Simon mentions she is warming up as they pass the 300m mark, but she really hits her stride with about 200m to go and just had too much top speed chasing down Spiro on the line.
Clearly we are looking at a very talented Filly and Mare, but everything didn't go their way, and those were very strong rides to allow the horses to show their best.
Now the question remains, can he go four for four?
The next Auckland Cup week Group 1 is the first Group 1 for the Two year olds the Diamond Stakes over 1200m. James McDonald is riding equal second favourite Rollout the carpet. There is a lot of talent in this race when you look at Choice Bro, Warhorse, Travino, Silk Pins and Croatia amongst others.
Choice Bro has shown eye catching finishes in the Karaka Million (fourth) and winning over Ockhams Razor last start at Taranaki. He has had the benefit of good draws to date and has performed best on a good track, he may not have either on Saturday. The blinkers which came on last start seemed to make a difference. He will be finishing big, but probably down the outside as opposed to the inside as in recent starts.
Warhorse is having his first start in over a month, however he has tended to race with these kind of gaps to date in his career so that should not effect him. A Group 3 winner with talent, he really charged home in the Karaka Million. He is already establishing a strong record at Ellerslie and his win there on New Years day was on a rain effected track. He has the benefit of a better draw so might be able to start his run from a handier position this time.
Travino had his first start back in New Zealand in the Matamata Slipper two weeks ago. The dead track gave him only his second non-win in the New Zealand since his first start (on a slow track). That was his first start in about 6 weeks, his wins have come with 14days, 14days and 21days rest, so expect a better showing here. He has drawn barrier one which should allow him to stay handy $9 fixed odds seems pretty good value if the rain stays away.
Croatia is having his third start. After winning on debut he was able to show a big finish to behind Irish Rebel and Magic Shaft. He has to be confided a contender here.
Mai Guru is having his first start since his fifth in the Karaka Million. I was slightly surprised by that fifth, he seemed to outperform other horses who I might have expected better from. This race is just stacked and he will have to show improvement to finish ahead of Silk Pins, Choice Bro, and Warhorse.
Roof of Reckoning is a maiden runner who was able to show something at Matamata, hard to know if possibly wet ground might help. He looks reasonably talented, but there are some classy runners to beat here.
King Zeus is having his second start and will go from barrier 6. He seemed to improve with trialing and was favourite in his first start. He was beaten by Fix over 1000m, who went on to have a good win on Auckland Cup day. King Zeus showed good fight but was worn down late. I suspect he may be fitter for the run and 1200m may suit.
Rollout the Carpet for James McDonald has drawn 11, but is coming off a form line which looks the same in the race book (1 and 1 been the results of his last two runs). The second win was in the Matamata Breeders Stakes at Group 2 level. She has beaten the fillies, so the question becomes can she beat the boys too? She is good and has looked it in her last two starts. Wetness underfoot does not appear to be an issue. Barrier number 11 may not be a problem if she gets out as well as she has recently, she will want to be handy and in a position to lead them home.
Seleno was very eye catching at New Plymouth last start, she was wide and back and simply flew home. If the track is wet it will suit and you suspect that 2nd up may help. The draw should suit and if she is closer to them starting her run, look out!
Silk Pins was great in the Karaka Million. Before the Karaka Million her record is deceiving, she didn't get a lot of luck in those races. Was third in the Matamata breeders stakes and didn't look as good that day. Happy to give her a chance, but I have a concern on wet ground based on the slow track New Years day at Ellerslie.
Soriano is currently undefeated. She was a winner late last week at Te Rapa. She is a bit of an enigma here, the win looked very good, but there is a lot of solid exposed form here.
Coat du Roan was good when 6th at Taranaki, was also unlucky when caught up by Ockham's Razor. Throw that race out and there is less to go on. She is almost certainly better than a $41 chance, but you could only take her on potential. Chateauneuf Dupape ran third in this race last year, as that is in the Rhone region maybe a horse called Coat du Roan can feature this year.
The Picks (I am assuming this forecast rain clears and we get back to a good or dead track)
First - Warhorse - This looks much more suitable than the Karaka Million.
Second - Rollout the Carpet - Looks talented, I have spent 1,500 words explaining how this could be Jame McDonald's week.
Third - Choice Bro - Like Rollout the Carpet the draw is a concern, there is no doubt of the talent. He will be coming on at the end.
Fourth - Seleno - Big finish, if she was 6th instead of 9th back she may have won, she will be closer from barrier 2.
In the New Zealand Stakes James McDonald will ride Scarlett Lady against a strong Group 1 field. Veyron is certainly the most dangerous after winning back to back Group 1's and showing that the step to middle distance is not so big after-all on Boxing Day, he loves this track and will be very hard to beat.
Veyron all but eliminated middle distance questions on Boxing Day. I also think his build up to this race has been far better than the build up to boxing day. He will handle all tracks so weather concerns should not be an issue.
Hold it Harvey is always consistent at Group 1 level. He came for them late when stepping back to 1600m at Otaki and was second to Shez Sensational at Te Rapa before that. This is a rare trip to Ellerslie and right handed, but he is hitting the strongest part of his campaign and he is better than when he was last here boxing day 2010.
Doctor Fremantle was good for a surprising third here on Boxing Day. He didn't get a lot of breaks last time in Hamilton. This is a big ask but he is capable of running in the money.
Showcause has basically been weighted out of the Open Handicap level (although it would have been interesting to see him yesterday). Although he didn't come back the strongest at New Plymouth that is not surprising. He is yet to feature second up either, a stat which is countered by his strong Ellerslie record. He gets better third up, and you might expect he can do something here but not enough to win.
Vosne Romanee won this race two years ago and surprised for a place last year. His last two starts have actually shown a bit of a (relative) resurgence in the nine year old gelding. Don't completely dismiss for old times sake, but there are a lot of better places for your money.
Riomoral has been a big improver over the last couple of months. WFA Group 1 seems a bit optimistic, but the steps towards middle distance have suited him.
Postmans Daughter probably needed a run between the Darci Brahma and this and she got in over 1600m in a Group 1 at Otaki. That was never going to be the ideal race for her but this is definitely where she will look at home. She seems to respond better to 2000m+ and going right handed, drawn barrier 1 will help too. This race looks perfectly set up for her, but it is hard to see her beating Veyron or Scarlett Lady.
Lady Kipling performed very strongly over 1600m at Otaki. She had her first win at Ellerslie two starts back but has twice been fourth at Group 1 level. She has been very consistent recently and the move up to 2000m should put her in a good position.
Scarlett Lady will face her first big test since returning from injury. If this race was run in the spring she probably would have been sole favourite. She has had 1 run back for 1 win but this is tougher. 2000m will surely suit her and she wont mind any rain. She has always been consistent, it was really unfortunate to see injury derailing her spring because she really could have made some noise in Melbourne last year.
Inferno is making her first trip to the big city following a pretty strong run in Matamata last start. This will be a major test but the distance should suit and around 8th up should see her peaking. It is a big ask.
Shuka is trying to become the first 3YO to win an Open level Group 1 this season. Twice in his career he has backed up in under a week and he has run second both times. The step back to 2000m should assist his chances. He is an absolute winning chance here, but yet again he might just be facing too much talent, which has been the story of his career to date.
I hate to go chalk, but it is hard to look past the favourites in this race. Who will win? toss a coin, it could be that close. We have not seen a big Group 1 shock this year, The Party Stand was somewhat of a shock winning this last year.
The Picks
First - Veyron - It just feels like he has put in the work to establish himself as favourite. Winning back to back Group 1's. The 2000m looks right for him and that Ellerslie record is superb.
Second - Scarlett Lady - Can win this based just on class. I think she will take a couple more races to get back to her absolute best, not sure where that will be, Australia?
Third - Postmans Daughter - I think the return to right handed should suit enough for her to improve on the Waikato run.
Fourth - Lady Kipling - Talent on the rise, could be the Cup week shock.
That was tough, I switched 1 and two back and forth several times and also changed up third and fourth with the mares and Hold it Harvey. I think it would pay to keep them safe on the weekend.
James McDonald calls Ellerslie his favourite track. I don't think anyone would disagree with him. Durham Town, Silent Achiever, Fix, Peridot, Between the Beats, and Shez Sensational have won this Auckland Cup week with him on board. Fix was another in a long line of wins in the first race of the day at Ellerslie yesterday. His strike rate is currently a ridiculous 4.41, that should mean with the nine rides he currently has booked for Saturday there are two winners in that group, I am sure the ones he wants the most are the Diamond Stakes and the New Zealand Stakes.
The New Zealand Derby last Saturday, James McDonald was riding Silent Achiever. The ground was possibly not as suitable as they would have liked, there was not a lot of pace in the race for Silent Achiever a horse who typically likes to race towards the back of the pack. It was evident from the relief shown by Roger James when they interviewed him after the victory that although he felt he had the horse with the most talent, he was not sure if things were lining up exactly how he wanted. After the race James McDonald admitted he didn't ride exactly to instructions and Silent Achiever slipped leaving the gates, judging from the after race comments analysts felt that possibly Silent Achiever hit the front earlier than she normally would have. What I liked about the ride was the point about 1400m to go when she was third from last and James McDonald moved her up, three wide, but closer to the pace. As they hit the 800m mark there is probably only 9 runners ahead of him, it was an excellent place for him to be when they started the sprint for home. As it was she won comfortably, but if he had been further back who knows, maybe she gets blocked or simply out sprinted. He really seemed to always have that race under his control from about 350m, every time another runner battled closer he asked her for more and she gave it.
In the Auckland Cup yesterday, as trainer Allan Sharrock said in his interview after the race "what else could go wrong" (in the video in the link, you need to sign up to view it, but it is free). He even basically said that the rain that had started about an hour before the race had put him off having a big bet on the horse because of the uncertainty in the conditions. Given what we saw on Saturday it would be hard not to be concerned at that point. During the running of the race George Simon made several comments about the position of Shez Sensational. "the favourite's under a ride" was his call as James McDonald went to work on her about 450m to go, he was probably one of the first Jockeys to make a move in the race. He then had to work a bit to find a hole, but Shez Sensational responded when he finally did. George Simon mentions she is warming up as they pass the 300m mark, but she really hits her stride with about 200m to go and just had too much top speed chasing down Spiro on the line.
Clearly we are looking at a very talented Filly and Mare, but everything didn't go their way, and those were very strong rides to allow the horses to show their best.
Now the question remains, can he go four for four?
The next Auckland Cup week Group 1 is the first Group 1 for the Two year olds the Diamond Stakes over 1200m. James McDonald is riding equal second favourite Rollout the carpet. There is a lot of talent in this race when you look at Choice Bro, Warhorse, Travino, Silk Pins and Croatia amongst others.
Choice Bro has shown eye catching finishes in the Karaka Million (fourth) and winning over Ockhams Razor last start at Taranaki. He has had the benefit of good draws to date and has performed best on a good track, he may not have either on Saturday. The blinkers which came on last start seemed to make a difference. He will be finishing big, but probably down the outside as opposed to the inside as in recent starts.
Warhorse is having his first start in over a month, however he has tended to race with these kind of gaps to date in his career so that should not effect him. A Group 3 winner with talent, he really charged home in the Karaka Million. He is already establishing a strong record at Ellerslie and his win there on New Years day was on a rain effected track. He has the benefit of a better draw so might be able to start his run from a handier position this time.
Travino had his first start back in New Zealand in the Matamata Slipper two weeks ago. The dead track gave him only his second non-win in the New Zealand since his first start (on a slow track). That was his first start in about 6 weeks, his wins have come with 14days, 14days and 21days rest, so expect a better showing here. He has drawn barrier one which should allow him to stay handy $9 fixed odds seems pretty good value if the rain stays away.
Croatia is having his third start. After winning on debut he was able to show a big finish to behind Irish Rebel and Magic Shaft. He has to be confided a contender here.
Mai Guru is having his first start since his fifth in the Karaka Million. I was slightly surprised by that fifth, he seemed to outperform other horses who I might have expected better from. This race is just stacked and he will have to show improvement to finish ahead of Silk Pins, Choice Bro, and Warhorse.
Roof of Reckoning is a maiden runner who was able to show something at Matamata, hard to know if possibly wet ground might help. He looks reasonably talented, but there are some classy runners to beat here.
King Zeus is having his second start and will go from barrier 6. He seemed to improve with trialing and was favourite in his first start. He was beaten by Fix over 1000m, who went on to have a good win on Auckland Cup day. King Zeus showed good fight but was worn down late. I suspect he may be fitter for the run and 1200m may suit.
Rollout the Carpet for James McDonald has drawn 11, but is coming off a form line which looks the same in the race book (1 and 1 been the results of his last two runs). The second win was in the Matamata Breeders Stakes at Group 2 level. She has beaten the fillies, so the question becomes can she beat the boys too? She is good and has looked it in her last two starts. Wetness underfoot does not appear to be an issue. Barrier number 11 may not be a problem if she gets out as well as she has recently, she will want to be handy and in a position to lead them home.
Seleno was very eye catching at New Plymouth last start, she was wide and back and simply flew home. If the track is wet it will suit and you suspect that 2nd up may help. The draw should suit and if she is closer to them starting her run, look out!
Silk Pins was great in the Karaka Million. Before the Karaka Million her record is deceiving, she didn't get a lot of luck in those races. Was third in the Matamata breeders stakes and didn't look as good that day. Happy to give her a chance, but I have a concern on wet ground based on the slow track New Years day at Ellerslie.
Soriano is currently undefeated. She was a winner late last week at Te Rapa. She is a bit of an enigma here, the win looked very good, but there is a lot of solid exposed form here.
Coat du Roan was good when 6th at Taranaki, was also unlucky when caught up by Ockham's Razor. Throw that race out and there is less to go on. She is almost certainly better than a $41 chance, but you could only take her on potential. Chateauneuf Dupape ran third in this race last year, as that is in the Rhone region maybe a horse called Coat du Roan can feature this year.
The Picks (I am assuming this forecast rain clears and we get back to a good or dead track)
First - Warhorse - This looks much more suitable than the Karaka Million.
Second - Rollout the Carpet - Looks talented, I have spent 1,500 words explaining how this could be Jame McDonald's week.
Third - Choice Bro - Like Rollout the Carpet the draw is a concern, there is no doubt of the talent. He will be coming on at the end.
Fourth - Seleno - Big finish, if she was 6th instead of 9th back she may have won, she will be closer from barrier 2.
In the New Zealand Stakes James McDonald will ride Scarlett Lady against a strong Group 1 field. Veyron is certainly the most dangerous after winning back to back Group 1's and showing that the step to middle distance is not so big after-all on Boxing Day, he loves this track and will be very hard to beat.
Veyron all but eliminated middle distance questions on Boxing Day. I also think his build up to this race has been far better than the build up to boxing day. He will handle all tracks so weather concerns should not be an issue.
Hold it Harvey is always consistent at Group 1 level. He came for them late when stepping back to 1600m at Otaki and was second to Shez Sensational at Te Rapa before that. This is a rare trip to Ellerslie and right handed, but he is hitting the strongest part of his campaign and he is better than when he was last here boxing day 2010.
Doctor Fremantle was good for a surprising third here on Boxing Day. He didn't get a lot of breaks last time in Hamilton. This is a big ask but he is capable of running in the money.
Showcause has basically been weighted out of the Open Handicap level (although it would have been interesting to see him yesterday). Although he didn't come back the strongest at New Plymouth that is not surprising. He is yet to feature second up either, a stat which is countered by his strong Ellerslie record. He gets better third up, and you might expect he can do something here but not enough to win.
Vosne Romanee won this race two years ago and surprised for a place last year. His last two starts have actually shown a bit of a (relative) resurgence in the nine year old gelding. Don't completely dismiss for old times sake, but there are a lot of better places for your money.
Riomoral has been a big improver over the last couple of months. WFA Group 1 seems a bit optimistic, but the steps towards middle distance have suited him.
Postmans Daughter probably needed a run between the Darci Brahma and this and she got in over 1600m in a Group 1 at Otaki. That was never going to be the ideal race for her but this is definitely where she will look at home. She seems to respond better to 2000m+ and going right handed, drawn barrier 1 will help too. This race looks perfectly set up for her, but it is hard to see her beating Veyron or Scarlett Lady.
Lady Kipling performed very strongly over 1600m at Otaki. She had her first win at Ellerslie two starts back but has twice been fourth at Group 1 level. She has been very consistent recently and the move up to 2000m should put her in a good position.
Scarlett Lady will face her first big test since returning from injury. If this race was run in the spring she probably would have been sole favourite. She has had 1 run back for 1 win but this is tougher. 2000m will surely suit her and she wont mind any rain. She has always been consistent, it was really unfortunate to see injury derailing her spring because she really could have made some noise in Melbourne last year.
Inferno is making her first trip to the big city following a pretty strong run in Matamata last start. This will be a major test but the distance should suit and around 8th up should see her peaking. It is a big ask.
Shuka is trying to become the first 3YO to win an Open level Group 1 this season. Twice in his career he has backed up in under a week and he has run second both times. The step back to 2000m should assist his chances. He is an absolute winning chance here, but yet again he might just be facing too much talent, which has been the story of his career to date.
I hate to go chalk, but it is hard to look past the favourites in this race. Who will win? toss a coin, it could be that close. We have not seen a big Group 1 shock this year, The Party Stand was somewhat of a shock winning this last year.
The Picks
First - Veyron - It just feels like he has put in the work to establish himself as favourite. Winning back to back Group 1's. The 2000m looks right for him and that Ellerslie record is superb.
Second - Scarlett Lady - Can win this based just on class. I think she will take a couple more races to get back to her absolute best, not sure where that will be, Australia?
Third - Postmans Daughter - I think the return to right handed should suit enough for her to improve on the Waikato run.
Fourth - Lady Kipling - Talent on the rise, could be the Cup week shock.
That was tough, I switched 1 and two back and forth several times and also changed up third and fourth with the mares and Hold it Harvey. I think it would pay to keep them safe on the weekend.
Thursday, 23 February 2012
The changing face of New Zealand Group One Races
For a time the Haunui Farm Group One Classic was looking like a rematch between Mufhasa, Veyron with Guiseppina in the mix. Now Mufhasa is off seeking his second Australian Group 1 of the season, in a race worth half a million Australian dollars. At some point it looked like he would be challenging the field for second with Black Caviar in that race, but it was a wise placement by Stephen McKee and Mufhasa's connections because realistically it was unlikely we would see Black Caviar run three weeks in a row, which seems a factor in the quality field the Futurity Stakes attracted.
The Otaki Group 1 really feels like the black sheep of New Zealand Group Ones, it just seems like a weird time and place amongst landscape of large race days and other Group 1's, aside from the $200,000 Group 1, the remaining races on this day are worth between $8,000 and $12,000. On first glance the field this attracted was maybe not what you might expect from a Group One either. This field contains four Group 1 winners, but it appears Vosne Romanee's best days have past, and Eagle Mountain is an unknown quantity.
When I looked again at this field in more detail this race may represent the changing face of New Zealand Group One races. Vosne Romanee, Vonsuti, Mufhasa, Hold It Harvey, Sir Slick, Six O'Clock News, Booming and two a lesser extent Wall Street (who is now racing in Australia), that is essentially the field for most Weight For Age Group 1 races over for the past couple of years. Yes, Mufhasa is still dominant, Six O'Clock News has maybe recaptured form, Booming was twice a Group 1 winner last year is still looking a possible Auckland Cup winner. These horses are not completely past it, but the point is that we have all seen these races before.
Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational have each won two Group One races this season at age four. This race contains Four Year Old mares Postman's Daughter (already a Group 2 winner and Group 1 place getter), Lady Kipling (Group 1 placed at age three and 4th in a Group 1 age four). As well as Five Year Old Group 1 Winning mare Guiseppina. This race contains Veyron (now a two time Group 1 winner) only age six, as well as promising five year old The Hombre who has won in Australia and placed at Group 1 level in New Zealand this year. This race also contains 4YO's Sadist and Jaggard who have question marks around the WFA races, but no question have talent and the potential to be running at this level. There have also been other recent runners at age four or five stepping up to Group 1 level and showing potential.
The question I am asking, is this race an example of the future of Group 1 racing in New Zealand? (for the next couple of years at least) Well, it is hard to say, certainly you would think Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational will continue to travel to Australia to compete. The problem with the mares like Guiseppina is that her connections will likely only continue to race her so long as they are winning more prize money than her progeny is likely to sell for, and they are not risking serious injury. Look at Barinka last year, solid career, finally got that Group 1, maybe didn't look like winning many more big races, suffered a bit of an injury, then retired. Another example is Veloce Bella who won the 2010 Darci Brahma International Stakes and by the time the 2011 version of that race came around she was in foal. I am sure there are countless other examples, but the landscape of these races can quickly change when it comes to the potential for a career after racing. That is why the nine horses I listed as an example of our recent Group 1 runners are all Geldings.
It is impossible to know how many more times the runners in the Haunui Farm Group 1 Classic will go on to compete against each other at this level because of some of the reasons listed above, but it is clear that I might have dismissed this field a bit too quickly because it does look like this field may contain some of the next generation of Group 1 competitors, and it is certainly evidence that we are in for an exciting group of emerging Group 1 contenders over the next couple of years.
How is this race going to play out? Here are some of my main talking points
I really think this race comes down to Eagle Mountain, certainly two years ago if he was running in this race he would have been considered favourite. At $7.50 on fixed odds it is clear that even bookmakers are not sure what to expect and they have kept him safe. The track is currently listed as dead and it is raining, weather effected tracks will suit him, he has a good 1600m record, but potentially more distance, like the New Zealand Stakes over 2000m might suit more. You almost have to include him because who knows what to expect.
Veyron will be the favourite coming off a strong Group 1 win over 1400m, he has a solid 1600m record and will be very hard to beat here.
Hold It Harvey is still very consistent and always seems to finish between 2nd and 4th in these races. This distance is his favourite recording 7 of his 14 victories at 1600m. He was really good this time of year last year, he has 8 career victories between 8th and 13th up, making this race right in the time when he tends to hit peak form. This is tough but $8.50 looks good value.
The Hombre looks the up-and-comer, if we were to jump forward to this time next year and list all of the Group 1 winners during that time, would you be surprised to see his name? no, me either. He looks to have that potential.
Guiseppina will likely struggle if it continues to rain, but this looks such a good opportunity for her to get a second Group One. Forget the run at Waikato, but I do question the 1600m, her results have been strange over this distance, she might have been effected by class, weight, track conditions or field size but the 12th and 15th are uncharacteristic, we have seen her run out 1400m races strongly which should indicate that 1600m is going to suit, but we are yet to see it.
Postmans Daughter is looking more and more likely to take out one of these races. Her last start was over 2000m, but dropping back in distance doesn't seem to be a major problem for her and she has a strong 1600m record. She also appears to becoming more suited to WFA conditions, and a rain effected track should not hinder her chances two much as she suits them better than a lot in this race.
Lady Kipling has won five races this season. This distance certainly appeals and WFA conditions for the 4YO mare shouldn't hold her chances back.
It is a tough race to pick because of the unknown conditions, looking at the forecast, we could get a lot of rain today, none tomorrow and then some overnight before the race. I will guess that this track will be at least Slow, possibly Heavy. That been the case my selections are
First - Veyron - Looks so good, handles all conditions, just a cut above.
Second - Hold it Harvey - Consistent, will handle the conditions, this could be the right place and the right time
Third - Postman's Daughter - Has shown she is up to this level of competition, back to 1600m shouldn't concern.
Fourth - Eagle Mountain - As I said he is so much of an unknown you really have to include him, particularly on a rain effected surface.
Value - Pretty good value around Postman's Daughter ($16), and even the Hombre ($10). Veyron looks so well placed here, but place odds for those will be interesting.
Longest shot I can see winning - Postman's Daughter ($16)
The Otaki Group 1 really feels like the black sheep of New Zealand Group Ones, it just seems like a weird time and place amongst landscape of large race days and other Group 1's, aside from the $200,000 Group 1, the remaining races on this day are worth between $8,000 and $12,000. On first glance the field this attracted was maybe not what you might expect from a Group One either. This field contains four Group 1 winners, but it appears Vosne Romanee's best days have past, and Eagle Mountain is an unknown quantity.
When I looked again at this field in more detail this race may represent the changing face of New Zealand Group One races. Vosne Romanee, Vonsuti, Mufhasa, Hold It Harvey, Sir Slick, Six O'Clock News, Booming and two a lesser extent Wall Street (who is now racing in Australia), that is essentially the field for most Weight For Age Group 1 races over for the past couple of years. Yes, Mufhasa is still dominant, Six O'Clock News has maybe recaptured form, Booming was twice a Group 1 winner last year is still looking a possible Auckland Cup winner. These horses are not completely past it, but the point is that we have all seen these races before.
Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational have each won two Group One races this season at age four. This race contains Four Year Old mares Postman's Daughter (already a Group 2 winner and Group 1 place getter), Lady Kipling (Group 1 placed at age three and 4th in a Group 1 age four). As well as Five Year Old Group 1 Winning mare Guiseppina. This race contains Veyron (now a two time Group 1 winner) only age six, as well as promising five year old The Hombre who has won in Australia and placed at Group 1 level in New Zealand this year. This race also contains 4YO's Sadist and Jaggard who have question marks around the WFA races, but no question have talent and the potential to be running at this level. There have also been other recent runners at age four or five stepping up to Group 1 level and showing potential.
The question I am asking, is this race an example of the future of Group 1 racing in New Zealand? (for the next couple of years at least) Well, it is hard to say, certainly you would think Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational will continue to travel to Australia to compete. The problem with the mares like Guiseppina is that her connections will likely only continue to race her so long as they are winning more prize money than her progeny is likely to sell for, and they are not risking serious injury. Look at Barinka last year, solid career, finally got that Group 1, maybe didn't look like winning many more big races, suffered a bit of an injury, then retired. Another example is Veloce Bella who won the 2010 Darci Brahma International Stakes and by the time the 2011 version of that race came around she was in foal. I am sure there are countless other examples, but the landscape of these races can quickly change when it comes to the potential for a career after racing. That is why the nine horses I listed as an example of our recent Group 1 runners are all Geldings.
It is impossible to know how many more times the runners in the Haunui Farm Group 1 Classic will go on to compete against each other at this level because of some of the reasons listed above, but it is clear that I might have dismissed this field a bit too quickly because it does look like this field may contain some of the next generation of Group 1 competitors, and it is certainly evidence that we are in for an exciting group of emerging Group 1 contenders over the next couple of years.
How is this race going to play out? Here are some of my main talking points
I really think this race comes down to Eagle Mountain, certainly two years ago if he was running in this race he would have been considered favourite. At $7.50 on fixed odds it is clear that even bookmakers are not sure what to expect and they have kept him safe. The track is currently listed as dead and it is raining, weather effected tracks will suit him, he has a good 1600m record, but potentially more distance, like the New Zealand Stakes over 2000m might suit more. You almost have to include him because who knows what to expect.
Veyron will be the favourite coming off a strong Group 1 win over 1400m, he has a solid 1600m record and will be very hard to beat here.
Hold It Harvey is still very consistent and always seems to finish between 2nd and 4th in these races. This distance is his favourite recording 7 of his 14 victories at 1600m. He was really good this time of year last year, he has 8 career victories between 8th and 13th up, making this race right in the time when he tends to hit peak form. This is tough but $8.50 looks good value.
The Hombre looks the up-and-comer, if we were to jump forward to this time next year and list all of the Group 1 winners during that time, would you be surprised to see his name? no, me either. He looks to have that potential.
Guiseppina will likely struggle if it continues to rain, but this looks such a good opportunity for her to get a second Group One. Forget the run at Waikato, but I do question the 1600m, her results have been strange over this distance, she might have been effected by class, weight, track conditions or field size but the 12th and 15th are uncharacteristic, we have seen her run out 1400m races strongly which should indicate that 1600m is going to suit, but we are yet to see it.
Postmans Daughter is looking more and more likely to take out one of these races. Her last start was over 2000m, but dropping back in distance doesn't seem to be a major problem for her and she has a strong 1600m record. She also appears to becoming more suited to WFA conditions, and a rain effected track should not hinder her chances two much as she suits them better than a lot in this race.
Lady Kipling has won five races this season. This distance certainly appeals and WFA conditions for the 4YO mare shouldn't hold her chances back.
It is a tough race to pick because of the unknown conditions, looking at the forecast, we could get a lot of rain today, none tomorrow and then some overnight before the race. I will guess that this track will be at least Slow, possibly Heavy. That been the case my selections are
First - Veyron - Looks so good, handles all conditions, just a cut above.
Second - Hold it Harvey - Consistent, will handle the conditions, this could be the right place and the right time
Third - Postman's Daughter - Has shown she is up to this level of competition, back to 1600m shouldn't concern.
Fourth - Eagle Mountain - As I said he is so much of an unknown you really have to include him, particularly on a rain effected surface.
Value - Pretty good value around Postman's Daughter ($16), and even the Hombre ($10). Veyron looks so well placed here, but place odds for those will be interesting.
Longest shot I can see winning - Postman's Daughter ($16)
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