I wanted to wait for the Australian Derby before preparing this version of the power rankings in the hope that there was not question over number one, despite a strong effort Silent Achiever ran a close up 6th. That looked like a two horse race heading in but Laser Hawk finished third. That may be the end of the season for the New Zealand Derby winner, she will have earned a rest whenever that comes and I look forward to seeing her again in the Spring.
Roger James would have been disappointed with that result. I am sure that he, like many others, thought she had what it took to win that race, however the day was not bad overall for Roger James as he uncovered a potential Oaks contender with Full of Spirit getting it done at Group 3 level with James McDonald on board in the 2000m Patinak Farm Adrian Knox Stakes. Full of Spirit is currently second favourite in a small field for this weekends Australian Oaks. The 3YO daughter of Flying Spur has come out of the woodwork recently, after winning on debut, she finished 7th in both the 1000 Guineas and the strong Eight Carat Classic, and continued to improve before winning her last start before the trip to Sydney.
The last edition of the Power Rankings came out following the Derby, but prior to the Oaks. Given the strength of that race it should have and effect on these rankings. We should also get a good sight of some of these runners over the Winter as it has been confirmed that at least Artistic, and Nashville will be heading to Queensland, and likely other top contenders too.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Knights Tour (7), Antonio Lombardo (10)
Honourable Mention
Chicharita
(HM, I see she is in Australia, it will be interesting to see how she goes), Knight's Tour (7, hopefully he ends up in Australia, I know I read about that as a potential plan when he first injured himself),
Capital Diamond (HM), Xanadu, Duckworth Lewis (HM), Travolta (HM), Joy's Choice(HM), Nashville (HM, and another off to Australia), Shuka (HM,
always HM), St Yazin, Poste Restante, Glad (HM)
Number 10 - Quintessential (HM) - Toss up between this filly and Xanadu for this last spot. Both were third in a Group 1 last start, both races included impressive fields, but I think her performance in the Oaks and overall season is just stronger.
Number 9 - Burgundy (7) - Really looking forward to seeing him when he next races. I think he has now found his niche around the sprint distances. He has all the talent as we saw early in his career and hopefully he will continue to improve at age 4.
Number 8 - Full of Spirit (N/A) - A bit of hype around this runner, a Group 3 in Australia is an accomplishment, she will really climb these chats with a win in the Oaks.
Number 7 - Carrick (5) - I have not read what the plan is for this Derby place getter, I don't see him on the list of exported horses, so I assume he is having some time off in New Zealand at this point.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (3) - Still not sure the Jockey change for the Oaks was the wisest choice, however I do feel that she was somewhat unlucky in that race and had to expend all of that energy early.
Number 5 - Rock'n'Pop (2) - I look forward to seeing him continue at age four in Australia. He looks such a strong colt, I am not quite sure what his niche will be because he has shown so much talent over all distances so far.
Number 4 - Ocean Park (9) - Unlucky year, was the derby favourite until withdrawal because of track uncertainty. Backed up that decision with a bold second in Sydney only to strike more bad luck leading into the Australian Derby. He appears a very strong 3YO and will possibly continue to age four. Not sure what his targets might be but I imagine he can put on a show in a race like the Windsor Park Plate over 1600m if he ends up there.
Number 3 - Zurella (4) - Out performed my expectations in the Oaks, but combined with a strong derby she is well deserving of a position this high on this list.
Number 2 - Artistic (6) - What is a bigger accomplishment, winning the Oaks or running second in a Group 1 in Australia? I already had her ahead of Ocean Park so she deserves to stay here. She has really built well over the season, she has been super consistent, and she seems to be getting better over more distance, she will be a threat in Queensland.
Number 1 - Silent Achiever (1) - A strong third in the Rosehill Guineas where I feel she was actually a tad unlucky in the big field they assembled. Her 6th in the Australian Guineas is disappointing from the perspective that she was favourite, but ordinarily is still an achievement (didn't Jimmy Choux run 6th in that race last year?)
Showing posts with label New Zealand Oaks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New Zealand Oaks. Show all posts
Friday, 20 April 2012
Friday, 16 March 2012
New Zealand Oaks 2012 Preview
Quick, who won the 2011 New Zealand Oaks? tick, tock, tick, buzz. Sorry, no, Kings Rose did not win the Oaks, thanks for playing we have some lovely parting gifts for you.
If you had guessed Scarlett Lady, Shez Sensational, Postmans Daughter or any of the other leading 4YO mares we are seeing around at the moment you would still be wrong. Midnight Oil was the winner, she was followed by Zennista and Insurgent.
This is another year were we will not see the top 3YO filly win the Oaks; she won the New Zealand Derby two weeks ago. That said this field is highlighted by some absolutely top class 3YO talent. The 3YO fillies have been rocking it this year, it is an excellent crop, in my Opinion two of the most stacked 3YO races this year, other than the Derby have been the Eight Carat Classic on Boxing Day and the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. These races didn't even even feature top 3YO prospect at the beginning of the season Anabandana and the Eight Carat Classic featured Dowager Queen but she was far from her best at that point in the season.
This years Oak's field definitely looks split between the "have's" and "have not's" the top half of the book is already very accomplished and filled with genuine winning chances, the bottom half of the book features more uncertainty, but this is the Oaks, it is a huge race and anything can happen.
The Have's
Planet Rock was so impressive in the wet at Hastings, she is a prime contender in this. She is the second favourite which is confusing. Yes, prior to the run at Hastings she recorded two 4ths, but I do feel like she can be fully excused for the first one and partially excused for the second. If you throw out those races would she be favourite? My biggest concern is the change in Jockey, taking off arguably the best big race jockey in the country, that is confusing, in spite of that she may still win.
Is Artistic the filly version of Shuka? look at her 3YO season, it is very consistent, she has finished close up to some very strong competition and she is clearly in the top tier of 3YO's, but she has not really won the big one. I was not sure about her over more distance, but the win during Auckland Cup week and the Sir Tristram Fillies fifth have convinced me otherwise. Has got lucky with the draw, but possibly will face too much competition here to win.
Capital Diamond was very good last time in the Capital. Was just taken out by a flying finish by Quintessential. Zurella gave her more of the same in the Sir Tristram Fillies and Planet Rock trounced her in the Lowland Stakes. She will look to lead and barrier 1 suits this well. She is a very good filly who, with a bit of luck, may have won three starts back at Trentham and won the Sir Tristram Fillies and come into this race as favourite. As it is she is paying $10 (fixed) and $3.25 a place (fixed), can she win? absolutely, will she finish in the money? very likely. Take the $3.25 and thank me later.
Zurella, we know it needs to be dry (and it looks like it will be). We know she goes considerably better left. We know she has run 2400m reasonably well. But there is something about her which leaves me a little cold. Is she overrated? I think she might be. Clearly she is talented, but if you put a stake in the ground and called it A and another stake in the ground 6.2 lengths away and called it B you would be looking at the difference between the best 3YO filly and Zurella (over 2400m), do you think any other filly will finish in that gap in this race? I think so.
Quintessential is paying $15 and $4.75 at the moment. I am not sure what to make of this. I really put it all down to the draw. She is better than that. She finished the day after Planet Rock when third in the Lowland Stakes, but those conditions were horrible. Based on her win here in late January alone you have to consider her a contender here. As I said, I am very put off by the draw, but that is really the major doubt in my mind.
Chicharita is properly rated for this race. She is a horse who I liked for the derby when the conditions looked like they might be bad, this week with a track probably improving to good by start time I am not as confident in her ability to beat some of the other contenders here. Her worst results have come left handed, she was 6th in the Sir Tristram Fillies, every horse who beat her is in this race. Although, she did look good over 2400m as the second filly home, I cant see her improving on that Derby run.
Joy's Choice has been on the radar for a while, but really emerged in the Royal Stakes at Ellerslie, she then came very close to winning the Sunline Vase during Auckland Cup week. I definitely have her in the top half of this field and would be another who I would not be surprised to see in the finish. She is pretty well drawn, and although she was caught late over 2100m, if she can get a sweet trip and save her energy and emerge slightly later she may be able to hold on this time.
Splitsecond is probably the biggest beneficiary of Silent Achiever heading overseas, she will gain the services of James McDonald for this race as he and Roger James target a Derby/Oaks double. $9 is probably a little shorter than I would have expected, but if the Sunline Vase was 2150m she may have won that race (actually Glad probably would have won that race). She has quickly risen to this level and I think a horse like Carrick is a fair comparison, so she has to be considered, she can definitely win this, but with the level of competition $9 does not look like value, $3 a place is more realistic.
The Have Nots (or more accurately the Have Not Yet's)
Poste Restante looks comfortable racing at rating 65 level, she has stepped up recently in distance and slightly in class and been solid but unspectacular. If Angleology was a filly, where would you rate him in the field after his Derby Performance? Probably not in the top 7, right?
Savasong might still be running the Lowlands Stakes. Forgive that race because of the conditions, and look at the 1800m second at New Plymouth as a better guide. Not exactly the stiffest competition, but signs point to her finishing the 2400m well.
Melody Celebre last ran over 1200m about 6 weeks ago. She will like a bit more distance, but this is double, she has run over 1600m a couple of times without success. What is the best case for her? I really don't know. She could win this, but it would require mass scratching for unknown reasons.
Tilda was only 7.5 lengths away from Silent Achiever in the Avondale Guineas. Of course Silent Achiever walked in that race, and that put her behind 6 derby runners. She has had another lower grade start over 2100m since. She looks like she will be able to get the 2400m, but is out of her class here.
Asavant is probably the 'have not' to beat until the barrier draw. It is hard to see her figuring here. She raced in the same race at Trentham on the 28th of January as a number of these starters and finished 13th, she is probably better than that but not significantly.
Jungle Pago is consistent-ish, but hard to see her doing anything over 2400m based on the video of her last start.
Lady Plantinum has been there-or-thereabouts and getting better with distance. The set weight may actually hinder her chances. Although she is not in the class of a lot of these runners she is better than 100-1 would suggest and might be the "have not" to watch.
Manhattam Mam shouldn't be a threat in this race, it is a major step up in class.
Myminkcoat has a very cool name and has been consistent when the footing is good. She is one who should be suited to 2400m and almost closed enough to win last start over 2200m. Again 100-1 seems unfairly high, but I guess when your ceiling may be a top 6 finish it doesn't make a lot of difference.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - I can't sleep on her, she is a Group 1 winner who has returned to form.
Second - Capital Diamond - Forget the last start (it was still a Group 3 Second), but the last two before that were so close.
Third - Splitsecond - I am buying the flying finish from the Sunline Vase
Fourth - Zurella - Reluctantly, I really wanted to pick Artistic, but I know I am too hard on Zurella and she will probably outperform my expectations.
If you had guessed Scarlett Lady, Shez Sensational, Postmans Daughter or any of the other leading 4YO mares we are seeing around at the moment you would still be wrong. Midnight Oil was the winner, she was followed by Zennista and Insurgent.
This is another year were we will not see the top 3YO filly win the Oaks; she won the New Zealand Derby two weeks ago. That said this field is highlighted by some absolutely top class 3YO talent. The 3YO fillies have been rocking it this year, it is an excellent crop, in my Opinion two of the most stacked 3YO races this year, other than the Derby have been the Eight Carat Classic on Boxing Day and the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. These races didn't even even feature top 3YO prospect at the beginning of the season Anabandana and the Eight Carat Classic featured Dowager Queen but she was far from her best at that point in the season.
This years Oak's field definitely looks split between the "have's" and "have not's" the top half of the book is already very accomplished and filled with genuine winning chances, the bottom half of the book features more uncertainty, but this is the Oaks, it is a huge race and anything can happen.
The Have's
Planet Rock was so impressive in the wet at Hastings, she is a prime contender in this. She is the second favourite which is confusing. Yes, prior to the run at Hastings she recorded two 4ths, but I do feel like she can be fully excused for the first one and partially excused for the second. If you throw out those races would she be favourite? My biggest concern is the change in Jockey, taking off arguably the best big race jockey in the country, that is confusing, in spite of that she may still win.
Is Artistic the filly version of Shuka? look at her 3YO season, it is very consistent, she has finished close up to some very strong competition and she is clearly in the top tier of 3YO's, but she has not really won the big one. I was not sure about her over more distance, but the win during Auckland Cup week and the Sir Tristram Fillies fifth have convinced me otherwise. Has got lucky with the draw, but possibly will face too much competition here to win.
Capital Diamond was very good last time in the Capital. Was just taken out by a flying finish by Quintessential. Zurella gave her more of the same in the Sir Tristram Fillies and Planet Rock trounced her in the Lowland Stakes. She will look to lead and barrier 1 suits this well. She is a very good filly who, with a bit of luck, may have won three starts back at Trentham and won the Sir Tristram Fillies and come into this race as favourite. As it is she is paying $10 (fixed) and $3.25 a place (fixed), can she win? absolutely, will she finish in the money? very likely. Take the $3.25 and thank me later.
Zurella, we know it needs to be dry (and it looks like it will be). We know she goes considerably better left. We know she has run 2400m reasonably well. But there is something about her which leaves me a little cold. Is she overrated? I think she might be. Clearly she is talented, but if you put a stake in the ground and called it A and another stake in the ground 6.2 lengths away and called it B you would be looking at the difference between the best 3YO filly and Zurella (over 2400m), do you think any other filly will finish in that gap in this race? I think so.
Quintessential is paying $15 and $4.75 at the moment. I am not sure what to make of this. I really put it all down to the draw. She is better than that. She finished the day after Planet Rock when third in the Lowland Stakes, but those conditions were horrible. Based on her win here in late January alone you have to consider her a contender here. As I said, I am very put off by the draw, but that is really the major doubt in my mind.
Chicharita is properly rated for this race. She is a horse who I liked for the derby when the conditions looked like they might be bad, this week with a track probably improving to good by start time I am not as confident in her ability to beat some of the other contenders here. Her worst results have come left handed, she was 6th in the Sir Tristram Fillies, every horse who beat her is in this race. Although, she did look good over 2400m as the second filly home, I cant see her improving on that Derby run.
Joy's Choice has been on the radar for a while, but really emerged in the Royal Stakes at Ellerslie, she then came very close to winning the Sunline Vase during Auckland Cup week. I definitely have her in the top half of this field and would be another who I would not be surprised to see in the finish. She is pretty well drawn, and although she was caught late over 2100m, if she can get a sweet trip and save her energy and emerge slightly later she may be able to hold on this time.
Splitsecond is probably the biggest beneficiary of Silent Achiever heading overseas, she will gain the services of James McDonald for this race as he and Roger James target a Derby/Oaks double. $9 is probably a little shorter than I would have expected, but if the Sunline Vase was 2150m she may have won that race (actually Glad probably would have won that race). She has quickly risen to this level and I think a horse like Carrick is a fair comparison, so she has to be considered, she can definitely win this, but with the level of competition $9 does not look like value, $3 a place is more realistic.
The Have Nots (or more accurately the Have Not Yet's)
Poste Restante looks comfortable racing at rating 65 level, she has stepped up recently in distance and slightly in class and been solid but unspectacular. If Angleology was a filly, where would you rate him in the field after his Derby Performance? Probably not in the top 7, right?
Savasong might still be running the Lowlands Stakes. Forgive that race because of the conditions, and look at the 1800m second at New Plymouth as a better guide. Not exactly the stiffest competition, but signs point to her finishing the 2400m well.
Melody Celebre last ran over 1200m about 6 weeks ago. She will like a bit more distance, but this is double, she has run over 1600m a couple of times without success. What is the best case for her? I really don't know. She could win this, but it would require mass scratching for unknown reasons.
Tilda was only 7.5 lengths away from Silent Achiever in the Avondale Guineas. Of course Silent Achiever walked in that race, and that put her behind 6 derby runners. She has had another lower grade start over 2100m since. She looks like she will be able to get the 2400m, but is out of her class here.
Asavant is probably the 'have not' to beat until the barrier draw. It is hard to see her figuring here. She raced in the same race at Trentham on the 28th of January as a number of these starters and finished 13th, she is probably better than that but not significantly.
Jungle Pago is consistent-ish, but hard to see her doing anything over 2400m based on the video of her last start.
Lady Plantinum has been there-or-thereabouts and getting better with distance. The set weight may actually hinder her chances. Although she is not in the class of a lot of these runners she is better than 100-1 would suggest and might be the "have not" to watch.
Manhattam Mam shouldn't be a threat in this race, it is a major step up in class.
Myminkcoat has a very cool name and has been consistent when the footing is good. She is one who should be suited to 2400m and almost closed enough to win last start over 2200m. Again 100-1 seems unfairly high, but I guess when your ceiling may be a top 6 finish it doesn't make a lot of difference.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - I can't sleep on her, she is a Group 1 winner who has returned to form.
Second - Capital Diamond - Forget the last start (it was still a Group 3 Second), but the last two before that were so close.
Third - Splitsecond - I am buying the flying finish from the Sunline Vase
Fourth - Zurella - Reluctantly, I really wanted to pick Artistic, but I know I am too hard on Zurella and she will probably outperform my expectations.
Tuesday, 13 March 2012
Three Year Old Power Rankings March Edition
Many things have changed in the last month since the February Power Rankings,we have seen the running of the New Zealand Derby, the Sunline Vase, the Lowland Stakes, and the Mr Tiz Trophy. We have seen a possible return to prominence from Burgundy, and a surprising lack of prominence from Antonio Lombardo, as well as the retirement of Anabandana and Ocean Park heading off in search of his derby across the ditch.
Where does that put us in the Power Rankings?
The Anabandana situation is a mystery, she was second on this list last month, and although she would have dropped following her second, and ultimately final, start in Australia I didn't expect to see a retirement. I guess, much like Distil she will have to drop from the rankings, because if not racing I guess she doesn't qualify. What an outstanding career!
I have really loved this class of fillies, and we are looking at a great Oaks this weekend, we may see another filly on top of this list, but Ocean park has a chance to take a big step up this list as he taking on the Randwick Guineas this weekend.
Not sure what to make of Burgundy after the weekend, which is becoming like his nickname, he was probably never going to win a Derby, after watching the run on the weekend I am unsure if he was really ever going to win a guineas either, it was only a month ago when I wrote " I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana." It would have been awesome if I was writing about Burgundy, but I was actually talking about Antonio Lombardo. This really creates a puzzle. Burgundy looked very good, maybe he was always going to be a 1200m type horse. As it turns out this was the thinking from the connections as well. (although that article indicates it wont be in the thought process, do you think an Easter Handicap is too much of a stretch? we are still waiting on our first 3YO Group 1 winner at open level). Antonio Lombardo didn't really look as good as he did early in the Spring, maybe it was the dead track which had been raced on 24 times that week, or the extra weight he was carrying but he just didn't seem to have that same closing speed, did he do enough to remain in the top 10.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Anabandana (2) Sangster (8) Capital Diamond (10)
Honourable Mention
Anabandana (2, for reasons discussed above), Sangster (8, hard to leave out, his starts this prep have been over 1400m and 1600m, I would expect to see him back in this list once we get closer to 2000m ), Chicharita (Very narrow miss, testament to the quality of the 3YO's we are seeing), Capital Diamond (10, Fought on well in the wet, still a possible Oaks contender, 2400m should not be an issue), Duckworth Lewis (HM), Quintessential (HM), Travolta, Joy's Choice, Nashville (HM), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Glad (not currently Oak's nominated but Sleeper Alert!)
Number 10 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - Would have been hard to leave him off, I really expect to see him bounce back over his next start. He didn't look his best on the weekend, but I expect to see him back to it soon.
Number 9 - Ocean Park (9) - Big expectations around this Colt and what he can do in Sydney.
Number 8 - Knight's Tour (7) - What could have been? Not sure when he is coming back, hopefully he comes back as good has be looked before the injury.
Number 7 - Burgundy (HM) - Back up in the rankings following an impressive 1200m victory in a listed race the last day of Auckland Cup week.
Number 6 - Artistic (HM) - Was her win the Sunline Vase better than Capital Diamond's second in the Lowland Stakes. The conditions were certainly better, it will be interesting to find out this Saturday.
Number 5 - Carrick (N/A) - Close up and fighting third in the Derby, he is probably working with less talent wise than the first two on this list, but he showed a great effort and should continue to contend when the distance gets above 2000m.
Number 4 - Zurella (5) - Was good in the Derby for 5th in a race which probably wasn't ideal. She will want a dryer track in the Oaks, and although it feels (to me anyway) like there is still a question mark over 2400m she may challenge based on talent alone.
Number 3 - Planet Rock (6) - Back to her best when winning on Derby Day in the Hawkes Bay. She is an interesting one, I had to drop her down the list last time because she had two consecutive fourths, however I really felt that the Royal Stakes was justified because of the backing up from the week before and it was her first 2000m start. The following start in the Sir Tristram fillies I felt there were excuses, but it was maybe just not her day, she also finished behind three very good fillies. She is clearly class and can really prove it by beating a top Oak's field this weekend.
Number 2 - Rock'n'Pop (1) - Is it possible I have actually underrated him all year? How do you underrate a Group 1 winner? But he ran out a very strong Derby, prior to this the 3rd at Group 1 level was again excellent. The only time he didn't really fire was on a slow track in a meaningless race. I am still not even sure the distance or conditions for the Derby were really ideal, but he just showed his considerable talent.
Number 1 - Silent Achiever (4) - What more can I say? no, seriously, I have probably written about 5000+ words about her since December. She was amazing on the 3rd, it was a great win. It will be great to see what she can do in Australia. Is she as good as Jimmy Choux was last year? hard to say, I will need to think about that. I feel another breakdown coming on (although I was wrong about the last one I wrote). She is a different horse than Jimmy Choux, she was always going to get better as we got up to 2400m, but maybe we will see them against each other next year over 2000m, that could be interesting. My gut says that Jimmy is better, but even if she is only as good as King's Rose, we are still looking at what will be an interesting 4YO year.
Value Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed, although I can say I will be Glad to see them when they are.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed
Where does that put us in the Power Rankings?
The Anabandana situation is a mystery, she was second on this list last month, and although she would have dropped following her second, and ultimately final, start in Australia I didn't expect to see a retirement. I guess, much like Distil she will have to drop from the rankings, because if not racing I guess she doesn't qualify. What an outstanding career!
I have really loved this class of fillies, and we are looking at a great Oaks this weekend, we may see another filly on top of this list, but Ocean park has a chance to take a big step up this list as he taking on the Randwick Guineas this weekend.
Not sure what to make of Burgundy after the weekend, which is becoming like his nickname, he was probably never going to win a Derby, after watching the run on the weekend I am unsure if he was really ever going to win a guineas either, it was only a month ago when I wrote " I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana." It would have been awesome if I was writing about Burgundy, but I was actually talking about Antonio Lombardo. This really creates a puzzle. Burgundy looked very good, maybe he was always going to be a 1200m type horse. As it turns out this was the thinking from the connections as well. (although that article indicates it wont be in the thought process, do you think an Easter Handicap is too much of a stretch? we are still waiting on our first 3YO Group 1 winner at open level). Antonio Lombardo didn't really look as good as he did early in the Spring, maybe it was the dead track which had been raced on 24 times that week, or the extra weight he was carrying but he just didn't seem to have that same closing speed, did he do enough to remain in the top 10.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Anabandana (2) Sangster (8) Capital Diamond (10)
Honourable Mention
Anabandana (2, for reasons discussed above), Sangster (8, hard to leave out, his starts this prep have been over 1400m and 1600m, I would expect to see him back in this list once we get closer to 2000m ), Chicharita (Very narrow miss, testament to the quality of the 3YO's we are seeing), Capital Diamond (10, Fought on well in the wet, still a possible Oaks contender, 2400m should not be an issue), Duckworth Lewis (HM), Quintessential (HM), Travolta, Joy's Choice, Nashville (HM), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Glad (not currently Oak's nominated but Sleeper Alert!)
Number 10 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - Would have been hard to leave him off, I really expect to see him bounce back over his next start. He didn't look his best on the weekend, but I expect to see him back to it soon.
Number 9 - Ocean Park (9) - Big expectations around this Colt and what he can do in Sydney.
Number 8 - Knight's Tour (7) - What could have been? Not sure when he is coming back, hopefully he comes back as good has be looked before the injury.
Number 7 - Burgundy (HM) - Back up in the rankings following an impressive 1200m victory in a listed race the last day of Auckland Cup week.
Number 6 - Artistic (HM) - Was her win the Sunline Vase better than Capital Diamond's second in the Lowland Stakes. The conditions were certainly better, it will be interesting to find out this Saturday.
Number 5 - Carrick (N/A) - Close up and fighting third in the Derby, he is probably working with less talent wise than the first two on this list, but he showed a great effort and should continue to contend when the distance gets above 2000m.
Number 4 - Zurella (5) - Was good in the Derby for 5th in a race which probably wasn't ideal. She will want a dryer track in the Oaks, and although it feels (to me anyway) like there is still a question mark over 2400m she may challenge based on talent alone.
Number 3 - Planet Rock (6) - Back to her best when winning on Derby Day in the Hawkes Bay. She is an interesting one, I had to drop her down the list last time because she had two consecutive fourths, however I really felt that the Royal Stakes was justified because of the backing up from the week before and it was her first 2000m start. The following start in the Sir Tristram fillies I felt there were excuses, but it was maybe just not her day, she also finished behind three very good fillies. She is clearly class and can really prove it by beating a top Oak's field this weekend.
Number 2 - Rock'n'Pop (1) - Is it possible I have actually underrated him all year? How do you underrate a Group 1 winner? But he ran out a very strong Derby, prior to this the 3rd at Group 1 level was again excellent. The only time he didn't really fire was on a slow track in a meaningless race. I am still not even sure the distance or conditions for the Derby were really ideal, but he just showed his considerable talent.
Number 1 - Silent Achiever (4) - What more can I say? no, seriously, I have probably written about 5000+ words about her since December. She was amazing on the 3rd, it was a great win. It will be great to see what she can do in Australia. Is she as good as Jimmy Choux was last year? hard to say, I will need to think about that. I feel another breakdown coming on (although I was wrong about the last one I wrote). She is a different horse than Jimmy Choux, she was always going to get better as we got up to 2400m, but maybe we will see them against each other next year over 2000m, that could be interesting. My gut says that Jimmy is better, but even if she is only as good as King's Rose, we are still looking at what will be an interesting 4YO year.
Value Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed, although I can say I will be Glad to see them when they are.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed
Thursday, 16 February 2012
Three Year Old Power Rankings - The Mid February Edition
It has been about three weeks since my last edition of the Power Rankings of New Zealand Three Year Olds, and although I have been making this a once a month gimmick I wanted to roll it out this week so I can squeeze in another edition before the New Zealand Derby, which is really what this had been about all of this time. I have been a little caught up in Derby hype over the past couple of weeks (17 Sleeps), I have already written about the contenders this week, but there are a number of top 3YO's who have dropped out of the Derby.
The Big Up's
Who has stepped up and shown something since the last edition?
Quintessential - Crushed em (by centimetres) at Trentham in the Desert Gold Stakes at Group 3 Level beating a handful of runners familiar with this list, followed up with a solid third in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Capital Diamond - Solid since before the 1000 Guineas, put up back to back seconds in the afore mentioned races.
Rock'n'Pop - Karaka 3YO Mile winner followed that up with a strong third at Open Weight For Age Group 1 Level at Waikato.
Knight's Tour - Added another win to his record, worked hard for it but it was not as challenging a race.
Bangalore Bullet - Won a couple of listed Guineas Races in the past few weeks down south.
Silent Achiever - Continues her rise up the rankings.
Zurella - Winner of the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic to answer some questions.
Our Famous Eve - Second in the Royal Stakes, she did herself proud with her effort in stronger company at WFA level, her fifth was not far off second, but still a distance out of first.
Downer's
Who has not performed up to their ranking?
Testa Secret - After the solid Eight Carat Classic she was less than solid in her next two, she might be a bit tired after a busy few weeks.
Ocean Park - Not a major downer, still a lot of hype and Derby favouritism, but not flying as high as a month ago.
Planet Rock - Thought the forth in the Sir Tristram Fillies was good, so not a major downer, but a win there may have cemented first spot.
Chicharita - Was on the verge before her disappointing run in the Sir Tristram Fillies.
Abeautifulred - had been very solid before the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Sangster - I am happy to forgive the run, after whatever the incident was at the 450m mark it looked like he was eased home. I would have liked to see more, but I expect he will continue to improve with distance.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Distill (9), Duckworth Lewis (10)
Honourable Mention:
Distill (hardest omission, he is a Group 1 winner after all, but we will not see him again in New Zealand), Duckworth Lewis (will be great as a 4YO if we don't see him again at age 3), Burgundy (still unsure what to make of him), Artistic (continues to race in solid form), Quintessential (big riser), Nashville, Xanadu, Shuka (always seems to come up against Ocean Park and Silent Achiever), Our Famous Eve.
Rankings
Number 10 - Capital Diamond (N/A) - Has looked very strong over the last couple of starts with seconds in very strong fillies races. Is Oaks nominated where $10 looks good value if she continues her consistency and even shows some improvement.
Number 9 - Ocean Park (5) - Still a lot of hype and a great shot at the Derby. The loss to Silent Achiever was not that bad, he will be highly backed on Derby Day and should be ready for 2400m at that point.
Number 8 - Sangster (2) - A big drop, it is probably undeserved and is more of a reaction to the form of other runners on this list. Something went wrong on Saturday (in a race he was never really a winning chance in anyway) and I am sure he will improve with more distance and more racing and climb this list again.
Number 7 - Knight's Tour (6) - Was set for a rise in these rankings until the word of his injury spread. It is hard not to feel sorry for the connections who had a horse who looked like a potential Group 1 winner and are now faced with uncertainty as to when his career will resume. Obviously you just have to hope he comes back in the same form.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (1) - I can't penalise the 4th in the Sir Tristram Fillies too hard, that was a tough race and quality field.
Number 5 - Zurella (N/A) - Back up in the rankings after the Sir Tristram Fillies race victory which included the powerful, Planet Rock and Artistic, as well as up and coming Quintessential and Capital Diamond.
Number 4 - Silent Achiever (8) - Now we know she is headed for the New Zealand Derby (or maybe not), she has beaten her main rival over 2000m and continues to show a lot of finishing speed. We will probably get another look at her on Avondale Guineas Day before the Derby where she will be a major threat to take home the prize.
Number 3 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana. It is hard to know when he will next race, couldn't see his name in nominations on either side of the Tasman or find any news stories.
Number 2 - Anabandana (4) - Back to Racing in Australia, wasn't a winner, but possibly lost to a very good Filly in Soft Sand. She looks like she will continue to be consistent and a threat to win in Australia this autumn.
Number 1 - Rock'n'Pop (7) - I agonised about who should really be number one on this list. Antonio Lombardo just hasn't raced for a while, an Aussie win may have seen Anabandana here, the resume of Silent Achiever is just not strong enough. Rock'n'Pop was dominant in the Karaka 3YO Mile and looked very good at Group 1 Level over 2000m.
Value Derby Proposition: Zurella ($6) - I just feel like she is closer to the Silent Achiever/Ocean Park ($3.80) level than this.
Long shot Derby Proposition: Joy's Choice ($51) (longest shot I can see winning at this point if all horses with odds were to start)
Value Oaks Proposition: Mosh Pit ($16) or possibly Quintessential ($12)- Lots of value this far out from the race, but at this point it is probably hard to separate this filly from Artistic ($10), Capital Diamond ($10), Chicharita ($6 - seems way too short), and Planet Rock ($8), Zurella and Silent Achiever are at $6, but who knows if they will run in this and the derby.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Abeautifulred ($61) has been consistent enough to throw a spanner in the works.
The Big Up's
Who has stepped up and shown something since the last edition?
Quintessential - Crushed em (by centimetres) at Trentham in the Desert Gold Stakes at Group 3 Level beating a handful of runners familiar with this list, followed up with a solid third in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Capital Diamond - Solid since before the 1000 Guineas, put up back to back seconds in the afore mentioned races.
Rock'n'Pop - Karaka 3YO Mile winner followed that up with a strong third at Open Weight For Age Group 1 Level at Waikato.
Knight's Tour - Added another win to his record, worked hard for it but it was not as challenging a race.
Bangalore Bullet - Won a couple of listed Guineas Races in the past few weeks down south.
Silent Achiever - Continues her rise up the rankings.
Zurella - Winner of the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic to answer some questions.
Our Famous Eve - Second in the Royal Stakes, she did herself proud with her effort in stronger company at WFA level, her fifth was not far off second, but still a distance out of first.
Downer's
Who has not performed up to their ranking?
Testa Secret - After the solid Eight Carat Classic she was less than solid in her next two, she might be a bit tired after a busy few weeks.
Ocean Park - Not a major downer, still a lot of hype and Derby favouritism, but not flying as high as a month ago.
Planet Rock - Thought the forth in the Sir Tristram Fillies was good, so not a major downer, but a win there may have cemented first spot.
Chicharita - Was on the verge before her disappointing run in the Sir Tristram Fillies.
Abeautifulred - had been very solid before the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Sangster - I am happy to forgive the run, after whatever the incident was at the 450m mark it looked like he was eased home. I would have liked to see more, but I expect he will continue to improve with distance.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Distill (9), Duckworth Lewis (10)
Honourable Mention:
Distill (hardest omission, he is a Group 1 winner after all, but we will not see him again in New Zealand), Duckworth Lewis (will be great as a 4YO if we don't see him again at age 3), Burgundy (still unsure what to make of him), Artistic (continues to race in solid form), Quintessential (big riser), Nashville, Xanadu, Shuka (always seems to come up against Ocean Park and Silent Achiever), Our Famous Eve.
Rankings
Number 10 - Capital Diamond (N/A) - Has looked very strong over the last couple of starts with seconds in very strong fillies races. Is Oaks nominated where $10 looks good value if she continues her consistency and even shows some improvement.
Number 9 - Ocean Park (5) - Still a lot of hype and a great shot at the Derby. The loss to Silent Achiever was not that bad, he will be highly backed on Derby Day and should be ready for 2400m at that point.
Number 8 - Sangster (2) - A big drop, it is probably undeserved and is more of a reaction to the form of other runners on this list. Something went wrong on Saturday (in a race he was never really a winning chance in anyway) and I am sure he will improve with more distance and more racing and climb this list again.
Number 7 - Knight's Tour (6) - Was set for a rise in these rankings until the word of his injury spread. It is hard not to feel sorry for the connections who had a horse who looked like a potential Group 1 winner and are now faced with uncertainty as to when his career will resume. Obviously you just have to hope he comes back in the same form.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (1) - I can't penalise the 4th in the Sir Tristram Fillies too hard, that was a tough race and quality field.
Number 5 - Zurella (N/A) - Back up in the rankings after the Sir Tristram Fillies race victory which included the powerful, Planet Rock and Artistic, as well as up and coming Quintessential and Capital Diamond.
Number 4 - Silent Achiever (8) - Now we know she is headed for the New Zealand Derby (or maybe not), she has beaten her main rival over 2000m and continues to show a lot of finishing speed. We will probably get another look at her on Avondale Guineas Day before the Derby where she will be a major threat to take home the prize.
Number 3 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana. It is hard to know when he will next race, couldn't see his name in nominations on either side of the Tasman or find any news stories.
Number 2 - Anabandana (4) - Back to Racing in Australia, wasn't a winner, but possibly lost to a very good Filly in Soft Sand. She looks like she will continue to be consistent and a threat to win in Australia this autumn.
Number 1 - Rock'n'Pop (7) - I agonised about who should really be number one on this list. Antonio Lombardo just hasn't raced for a while, an Aussie win may have seen Anabandana here, the resume of Silent Achiever is just not strong enough. Rock'n'Pop was dominant in the Karaka 3YO Mile and looked very good at Group 1 Level over 2000m.
Value Derby Proposition: Zurella ($6) - I just feel like she is closer to the Silent Achiever/Ocean Park ($3.80) level than this.
Long shot Derby Proposition: Joy's Choice ($51) (longest shot I can see winning at this point if all horses with odds were to start)
Value Oaks Proposition: Mosh Pit ($16) or possibly Quintessential ($12)- Lots of value this far out from the race, but at this point it is probably hard to separate this filly from Artistic ($10), Capital Diamond ($10), Chicharita ($6 - seems way too short), and Planet Rock ($8), Zurella and Silent Achiever are at $6, but who knows if they will run in this and the derby.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Abeautifulred ($61) has been consistent enough to throw a spanner in the works.
Friday, 10 February 2012
Seven highlights of the racing weekend
Big weekend coming up in racing on both sides of the Tasman. There is a lot to look forward to, here is a list of my top seven things to look forward to on the track this weekend, in no particular order (other than the fact it will be chronological).
Reason One
Location: Hamilton
Time: 2.43pm
Huge race day in Hamilton this weekend, it is always a good day out, I would love to be down their again this weekend but unfortunately I will have to write about it instead. There are two Group 1's and a Group 2. The Sir Tristram Fillies Classic is one of those races which falls into the Group 2 category but year after year produces a stunning field which could be seen at Group 1 level. Last year Kings Rose followed up her victory in the 2010 Thousand Guineas with a victory in the Cambridge Stud Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. Planet Rock is looking to accomplish the same feat this year, and will be hoping to reproduce the same success that Kings Rose went on to have over the course of the rest of 2011.
The field she will face at Te Rapa this weekend contains a number of runners who hold nominations to the New Zealand Oaks and this is definitely one of those events which will indicate how likely these fillies are to be able to compete in that race.
The highlights include the aforementioned Planet Rock who won the Guineas and the Eight Carat Classic before going down to Chicharita in the Royal Stakes on New Years day. She looked better than 4th in that race and will likely run better in this event after a month off and having her second look at 2000m.
Chicharita the Royal Stakes winner who has had her two worst performances at Te Rapa, that Royal Stakes finish was impressive and a good draw should keep her handy but this does feel like a tougher race.
Up and coming Quintessential who has been notable with solid performances since her second start. She stepped up and won at Group 3 level in Wellington recently, based on that race I would put her in a similar boat to Artistic in relation to this race, both runs were similar and Quintessential won that time, but both ran similar races that day.
Zurella was highly rated heading into the Royal Stakes but she finished a pretty distant fifth, it may have been the distance or the conditions which effected her, but she has talent and deserves to be considered. Abeautifulred is putting together a decent run of races, however she does seem to encounter better horses having better days, this looks tough but she should be around the first few home.
Artistic, is having a similar season to Abeautifulred, since beating the colts in the Bonecrusher stakes she has had a string of fourth's before her striking third to Quintessential recently, it feels like she has the firepower to win this, she just needs things to go her way to be in a handy position for the finish.
Capital Diamond is never far away and showed great fight to not only chase down Abeautifulred, but to hold off the flying Artistic in the Desert Gold Stakes, the step up to 2000m shouldn't concern, she has the ability to remain consistent.
Our Famous Eve nominated here and in the Darci Brahma International she is probably better suited here, but despite the impressive Royal Stakes second I cannot help but think some of the other talent here will catch up with her.
Of the rest Leica Duell seems to have the form over a bit more ground, but it is hard to see the winner not coming from the top half of the field on Saturday.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - Should be better this time at 2000m, the draw is a concern, this is a pick on talent
Second - Artistic - We will see another one of those flying finishes she produces, if she starts her run with room she can win.
Third - Quintessential - Should be better positioned from barrier three to unleash another strong finish
Forth - Zurella - With a good track she deserves another shot at 2000m
Value - Hard to see a candidate who is far over the odds here, maybe some value around Quintessential and Capital Diamond
Reason Two
Location: Hamilton
Time: 3.53pm
Group 1 racing is always a reason to get excited and this race includes a number of factors which deserve attention, there are contenders in this race who I would not have thought would be contenders a month ago. Based on the Boxing Day performance it is hard to go past Shez Sensational, forget the 1600m Group 1 it was too short 2000m is far more suitable.
At weight for age level quality three year old's are hard to go past when making selections and Rock'n'Pop looks like a genuine contender. I remember last year on this day We Can Say It Now looked like a strong contender at Group 1 Level in the Waikato Draft Sprint but came up against a resurgent Mufhasa as well as Wall Street and Keep the Peace who had impressive seasons. Rock'n'Pop may be better suited this year in this event.
How about some of the unlikely contenders here:
Six O'Clock News - Speaking of resurgent, the Wellington Cup was great, this is tougher but he is back in form.
Booming - WFA conditions are the most suitable for Booming, 2000m is the most suitable distance too.
Doctor Fremantle - After Boxing Day you have to consider him, was that a fluke or is there better to come?
Postman's Daughter - After the counties win in November she looked to go off, but she is back racing well, WFA does concern, but she still carried 56kg for second in the Thorndon Mile.
Our Famous Eve - If she runs, at 52kgs she could be dangerous.
The Picks
First: Shez Sensational - Too good boxing day in a very similar and possibly tougher race.
Second: Rock'n'Pop - Strong, lightweight, genuine contender.
Third: Hold it Harvey - 2kg relative difference in weight to Six O'Clock News from their last meeting.
Forth: Six O'Clock News - Will give the recent form respect for now.
Value: If Our Famous Eve runs their could be value, however I would suggest that if Six O'Clock News can put on another show the $12 going at the moment is great value.
Reason Three
Location: Hamilton
Time: 5.03pm
The second Group 1 of the day might be even better in the fact that it contains the defending champion Mufhasa and recent 1200m Group 1 winner Guiseppina stepping up to weight for age conditions. Then there is Veyron, a Group 1 winner undefeated over 1400m stepping back from a second over 2000m at WFA conditions. Then there is Sangster a talented 3YO who won his last start in a small race called the Victorian Derby. This may be a three horse race for first, but it should be an interesting three horse race.
The Picks
First: Mufhasa - Simply too good
Second: Guiseppina - Came home so well 1400m really appeals, capable of carrying the weight and winning
Third: Veyron - First time not winning over 1400m.
Forth: Run Like Al - Formidable record on the course and has won three over 1400m
Value - Run Like Al - Although he will have to put on a show to finish better than forth.
Reason Four
Location: Caulfield
Who doesn't love an underdog story? A battler fighting for respect, doing their best and trying to beat the odds. Well this Saturday at Caulfield you will get to witness a horse having her 18th start, having only won a measly $4.5million, her connections hoping that stepping up to 1400m will be what it takes to finally break through for that treasured victory (the 18th one they treasure). The stands will be dripping with Salmon and Black as the crowds come in force to farewell Black Caviar as she heads off in search of stronger competition. It will be a special occasion, it is rare to see an athlete connecting with the general population and transcending their sport to gain the attention of people who would not normally be interested, Black Caviar as accomplished this with her domination through 17 starts, and it looks to continue this weekend, it is definitely something to look forward to this weekend.
Reason Five
Location: Caulfield
Time: 5.50pm
Looking past the fact that simply having Black Caviar run makes this a special occasion, the race she is running in itself is something to look forward to. This race features a number of Group 1 winners, a Caulfield Cup Winner, a Melbourne Cup Winner, multiple horses with over or close to a million in earnings. This race will ask a question of Black Caviar, which doesn't happen too often and probably has not happened since Hay List asked some questions briefly last year, this question is the 1400m which is the first time she will attempt this distance.
Well here is the answer, of course she will handle the 1400m, she runs 1200m with out even getting out of second gear, if she needs to she can at least kick it into third. She finishes races with so much left in the tank that an extra 200m cannot possibly be a concern.
In regard to the quality competition, unfortunately only two of the horses in this race will likely have their next start at this distance, and they are unlikely to be a threat. The remaining horses Efficient, Playing God, Midas Touch, Precedence, Illo and Southern Speed are starting (or early in) their Autumn campaign, this is not a race they would have necessarily been targeting but it is a step as they begin to look at longer races.
Yes, Black Caviar will win, this is not a bold prediction, the interesting part of the race will be to see who else is winding up behind her. A lot of these horses met in other races in the spring, this will be a barometer as to how they are looking now and who is likely to finish on top of the longer races later in the Autumn.
Reason Six
Location: Sydney, Rosehill
Time: 6.50pm
There is also a big race on in Sydney this weekend worth watching. It is a 1200m race which features a few notable horses, three who have won over $2 million (Danleigh, Snipers Bullet, and Sacred Choice) and another two who will likely go over that mark should they win here (Rangirangdo and Shoot Out) and . Three of the runners have imposable records on the track (Rangirangdoo, Centennial Park and Winter King). There are a couple of up and comers with strong records to date, Rain Affair has such a impressive record. A couple are likely looking for a bit more ground. All with have ambitions of going on to bigger events later in the Autumn. Definitely something to look forward to.
Reason Seven
Location: Caulfield
Time: 7:10pm
Anabandana's first start in Australia. The quality kiwi filly is having a start over a distance she owned in New Zealand (1200m). This is probably one of the tougher fields she has faced overall, but she has the benefit of having Craig Williams who will make sure she is in the best place to show that turn of foot we all know she has. It will be great to see her over in Australia preparing to take on some of the top horses in the region, this will be a really good indication of just how good she can be.
Those are my highlights for this weekend, it really will be an excellent show at Te Rapa and everyone will have an eye across the Tasman as the Autumn begins to wind up.
Reason One
Location: Hamilton
Time: 2.43pm
Huge race day in Hamilton this weekend, it is always a good day out, I would love to be down their again this weekend but unfortunately I will have to write about it instead. There are two Group 1's and a Group 2. The Sir Tristram Fillies Classic is one of those races which falls into the Group 2 category but year after year produces a stunning field which could be seen at Group 1 level. Last year Kings Rose followed up her victory in the 2010 Thousand Guineas with a victory in the Cambridge Stud Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. Planet Rock is looking to accomplish the same feat this year, and will be hoping to reproduce the same success that Kings Rose went on to have over the course of the rest of 2011.
The field she will face at Te Rapa this weekend contains a number of runners who hold nominations to the New Zealand Oaks and this is definitely one of those events which will indicate how likely these fillies are to be able to compete in that race.
The highlights include the aforementioned Planet Rock who won the Guineas and the Eight Carat Classic before going down to Chicharita in the Royal Stakes on New Years day. She looked better than 4th in that race and will likely run better in this event after a month off and having her second look at 2000m.
Chicharita the Royal Stakes winner who has had her two worst performances at Te Rapa, that Royal Stakes finish was impressive and a good draw should keep her handy but this does feel like a tougher race.
Up and coming Quintessential who has been notable with solid performances since her second start. She stepped up and won at Group 3 level in Wellington recently, based on that race I would put her in a similar boat to Artistic in relation to this race, both runs were similar and Quintessential won that time, but both ran similar races that day.
Zurella was highly rated heading into the Royal Stakes but she finished a pretty distant fifth, it may have been the distance or the conditions which effected her, but she has talent and deserves to be considered. Abeautifulred is putting together a decent run of races, however she does seem to encounter better horses having better days, this looks tough but she should be around the first few home.
Artistic, is having a similar season to Abeautifulred, since beating the colts in the Bonecrusher stakes she has had a string of fourth's before her striking third to Quintessential recently, it feels like she has the firepower to win this, she just needs things to go her way to be in a handy position for the finish.
Capital Diamond is never far away and showed great fight to not only chase down Abeautifulred, but to hold off the flying Artistic in the Desert Gold Stakes, the step up to 2000m shouldn't concern, she has the ability to remain consistent.
Our Famous Eve nominated here and in the Darci Brahma International she is probably better suited here, but despite the impressive Royal Stakes second I cannot help but think some of the other talent here will catch up with her.
Of the rest Leica Duell seems to have the form over a bit more ground, but it is hard to see the winner not coming from the top half of the field on Saturday.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - Should be better this time at 2000m, the draw is a concern, this is a pick on talent
Second - Artistic - We will see another one of those flying finishes she produces, if she starts her run with room she can win.
Third - Quintessential - Should be better positioned from barrier three to unleash another strong finish
Forth - Zurella - With a good track she deserves another shot at 2000m
Value - Hard to see a candidate who is far over the odds here, maybe some value around Quintessential and Capital Diamond
Reason Two
Location: Hamilton
Time: 3.53pm
Group 1 racing is always a reason to get excited and this race includes a number of factors which deserve attention, there are contenders in this race who I would not have thought would be contenders a month ago. Based on the Boxing Day performance it is hard to go past Shez Sensational, forget the 1600m Group 1 it was too short 2000m is far more suitable.
At weight for age level quality three year old's are hard to go past when making selections and Rock'n'Pop looks like a genuine contender. I remember last year on this day We Can Say It Now looked like a strong contender at Group 1 Level in the Waikato Draft Sprint but came up against a resurgent Mufhasa as well as Wall Street and Keep the Peace who had impressive seasons. Rock'n'Pop may be better suited this year in this event.
How about some of the unlikely contenders here:
Six O'Clock News - Speaking of resurgent, the Wellington Cup was great, this is tougher but he is back in form.
Booming - WFA conditions are the most suitable for Booming, 2000m is the most suitable distance too.
Doctor Fremantle - After Boxing Day you have to consider him, was that a fluke or is there better to come?
Postman's Daughter - After the counties win in November she looked to go off, but she is back racing well, WFA does concern, but she still carried 56kg for second in the Thorndon Mile.
Our Famous Eve - If she runs, at 52kgs she could be dangerous.
The Picks
First: Shez Sensational - Too good boxing day in a very similar and possibly tougher race.
Second: Rock'n'Pop - Strong, lightweight, genuine contender.
Third: Hold it Harvey - 2kg relative difference in weight to Six O'Clock News from their last meeting.
Forth: Six O'Clock News - Will give the recent form respect for now.
Value: If Our Famous Eve runs their could be value, however I would suggest that if Six O'Clock News can put on another show the $12 going at the moment is great value.
Reason Three
Location: Hamilton
Time: 5.03pm
The second Group 1 of the day might be even better in the fact that it contains the defending champion Mufhasa and recent 1200m Group 1 winner Guiseppina stepping up to weight for age conditions. Then there is Veyron, a Group 1 winner undefeated over 1400m stepping back from a second over 2000m at WFA conditions. Then there is Sangster a talented 3YO who won his last start in a small race called the Victorian Derby. This may be a three horse race for first, but it should be an interesting three horse race.
The Picks
First: Mufhasa - Simply too good
Second: Guiseppina - Came home so well 1400m really appeals, capable of carrying the weight and winning
Third: Veyron - First time not winning over 1400m.
Forth: Run Like Al - Formidable record on the course and has won three over 1400m
Value - Run Like Al - Although he will have to put on a show to finish better than forth.
Reason Four
Location: Caulfield
Who doesn't love an underdog story? A battler fighting for respect, doing their best and trying to beat the odds. Well this Saturday at Caulfield you will get to witness a horse having her 18th start, having only won a measly $4.5million, her connections hoping that stepping up to 1400m will be what it takes to finally break through for that treasured victory (the 18th one they treasure). The stands will be dripping with Salmon and Black as the crowds come in force to farewell Black Caviar as she heads off in search of stronger competition. It will be a special occasion, it is rare to see an athlete connecting with the general population and transcending their sport to gain the attention of people who would not normally be interested, Black Caviar as accomplished this with her domination through 17 starts, and it looks to continue this weekend, it is definitely something to look forward to this weekend.
Reason Five
Location: Caulfield
Time: 5.50pm
Looking past the fact that simply having Black Caviar run makes this a special occasion, the race she is running in itself is something to look forward to. This race features a number of Group 1 winners, a Caulfield Cup Winner, a Melbourne Cup Winner, multiple horses with over or close to a million in earnings. This race will ask a question of Black Caviar, which doesn't happen too often and probably has not happened since Hay List asked some questions briefly last year, this question is the 1400m which is the first time she will attempt this distance.
Well here is the answer, of course she will handle the 1400m, she runs 1200m with out even getting out of second gear, if she needs to she can at least kick it into third. She finishes races with so much left in the tank that an extra 200m cannot possibly be a concern.
In regard to the quality competition, unfortunately only two of the horses in this race will likely have their next start at this distance, and they are unlikely to be a threat. The remaining horses Efficient, Playing God, Midas Touch, Precedence, Illo and Southern Speed are starting (or early in) their Autumn campaign, this is not a race they would have necessarily been targeting but it is a step as they begin to look at longer races.
Yes, Black Caviar will win, this is not a bold prediction, the interesting part of the race will be to see who else is winding up behind her. A lot of these horses met in other races in the spring, this will be a barometer as to how they are looking now and who is likely to finish on top of the longer races later in the Autumn.
Reason Six
Location: Sydney, Rosehill
Time: 6.50pm
There is also a big race on in Sydney this weekend worth watching. It is a 1200m race which features a few notable horses, three who have won over $2 million (Danleigh, Snipers Bullet, and Sacred Choice) and another two who will likely go over that mark should they win here (Rangirangdo and Shoot Out) and . Three of the runners have imposable records on the track (Rangirangdoo, Centennial Park and Winter King). There are a couple of up and comers with strong records to date, Rain Affair has such a impressive record. A couple are likely looking for a bit more ground. All with have ambitions of going on to bigger events later in the Autumn. Definitely something to look forward to.
Reason Seven
Location: Caulfield
Time: 7:10pm
Anabandana's first start in Australia. The quality kiwi filly is having a start over a distance she owned in New Zealand (1200m). This is probably one of the tougher fields she has faced overall, but she has the benefit of having Craig Williams who will make sure she is in the best place to show that turn of foot we all know she has. It will be great to see her over in Australia preparing to take on some of the top horses in the region, this will be a really good indication of just how good she can be.
Those are my highlights for this weekend, it really will be an excellent show at Te Rapa and everyone will have an eye across the Tasman as the Autumn begins to wind up.
Friday, 3 February 2012
The most interesting thing this weekend
It has been an eventful week in New Zealand racing with the Karaka Sales. Given that this is the case I still couldn't think of anything to write about this weekends racing action. I was not really interested in looking into anything happening at Otago, the Waikato races interest me but with the smallish Waikato Guineas field I didn't see the point in going into detail. My next thought was with the Sydney Autumn carnival just around the corner it might be worth having a look at races across the ditch and see how the build up is going, however after having a look at the fields in Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland nothing really grabbed my attention, I even had a quick scan of the races on Adelaide and Perth.
I was left with nothing to write about, more so than usual (or should that be less so?) and it has not stopped me in the past. I asked myself, what am I most interested in this weekend? The answer is the Waikato Guineas, but not really the race itself, the battle between leading Derby contender Ocean Park, and leading Oaks contender Silent Achiever (see I told you I would find a way to bring her up in every post until the Oaks).
In this post I will disrespect (and probably regret it later) every other horse they will face this weekend and commence a "tale of the tape" style breakdown on the Ocean Park vs Silent Achiever. Yes, and entire post focusing on two horses in a Group 3 race (that sound you just heard was every other reader slamming their palm on their forehead and rapidly clicking away from this post).
This seemingly unexciting race is really shaping up like a battle between two potential Group 1 winners. Now that I have sufficiently jinxed both of these feel free to put your money on Shuka this weekend. I really think Silent Achiever has a fairly clear run to the Oaks with less competition, I am very weary of Knight's Tour as competition to Ocean Park to the derby. I think if Ocean Park wins this he will likely shorten slightly for the Derby and Silent Achiever will probably not move too much in regard to the Oaks, conversely if Silent Achiever wins she will probably be significantly shorter as Oaks favourite, we Knights Tour may take over as Derby favourite. There is a lot at stake this weekend for these two horses.
I was left with nothing to write about, more so than usual (or should that be less so?) and it has not stopped me in the past. I asked myself, what am I most interested in this weekend? The answer is the Waikato Guineas, but not really the race itself, the battle between leading Derby contender Ocean Park, and leading Oaks contender Silent Achiever (see I told you I would find a way to bring her up in every post until the Oaks).
In this post I will disrespect (and probably regret it later) every other horse they will face this weekend and commence a "tale of the tape" style breakdown on the Ocean Park vs Silent Achiever. Yes, and entire post focusing on two horses in a Group 3 race (that sound you just heard was every other reader slamming their palm on their forehead and rapidly clicking away from this post).
| Category | Ocean Park | Silent Achiever | Edge | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 3YO | 3YO | Even | If you want to get technical Silent Achiever is 25 Days older than Ocean Park. |
| Sex | Colt | Filly | Even | I am not going to touch that one. |
| Overall Record | 4-3-1-0 | 4-2-1-1 | Ocean Park | |
| Distance Record | 0-0 | 0-0 | Silent Achiever | Has won over 2100m while Ocean Park has not raced over more than 1600m, however was so impressive it looked like 2000m will be no problem. |
| Best Win | Jan 21st @ Wellington (1600m Group 3) | Jan 1st @ Ellerslie (2100m Group 2) | Ocean Park | Was so impressive two weeks ago running away over 1600m. |
| Best Loss | December 26th @ Ellerslie 2nd to Knights Tour (1600m Group 2) | December 26th @ Ellerslie 3rd to Planet Rock and Testa Secret (1600m Group 2) | Silent Achiever | Ocean Park's run was amazing for second, but the 3rd was in an absolutely stacked Eight Carat Classic. |
| Jockey | Chad Ormsby | James McDonald | Slight edge, Silent Achiever | It is closer than you may think, Chad Ormsby has a relationship with Ocean Park, but James McDonald is the best Jockey in the country. |
| The Tron | Trained in Matamata, won twice left handed. | Trained in Cambridge, first start left handed. | Ocean Park | Both don't have too far to travel, Ocean Park's left handed results give him the edge. |
| Big Beats | Shuka, Burgundy (twice), Joy's Choice, Nashville, Fort Lincoln | Dowager Queen, Artistic, Xanadu, Holy Moly, Abeautifulred, Shuka | Silent Achiever | Thus far in their respective careers it is clear that Silent Achiever has beaten horses with bigger profiles. |
| Name | Ocean Park? What is that anyway? | Silent Achiever, is that what you really want. | Slight Edge Ocean Park | Neither name really stands out, will give the slight edge to Ocean Park because at least they incorporated the sire Thorn Park, so it is not just something pointless and made up. |
| Colours | Blue with a white cross and sleeves | Gold | Ocean Park | Have to admit that the Silent Achiever colours are a bit boring, then again they are easy to spot during the running. |
| Trainer Success this year | 23-5-1-3 and $90k this year with an impressive 4.6 strike rake, thanks in big part to Ocean Park | 96-17-116-9 and $300k this year at an impressive 5.65 strike rate. Not to mention an Australian Group 1 Victory which was not a victory. | Silent Achiever | But it is relative to the size of their operations. |
| Biggest Derby/Oaks Competition | Knight's Tour | Chicharita | Silent Achiever | Despite the $5 quote, it just looks like an easier race to win. |
| Holy hell that was impressive moment | Pulling away from a Group 3 field and winning impressively last start | Her first win where she flew home over the last 200m for victory. | Ocean Park | I am very biased, I was on course for that Silent Achiever victory, and it was one for the most impressive things I have seen in person. However, that Ocean Park win was at Group 3 level. |
| Who's your daddy? | Thorn Park | O'Reilly | Silent Achiever | Thorn Park Sold 10 Lots @ $126,000 O'Reilly Sold 39 @ $138,077 at the recent premier sale at Karaka. That seems like a fair measurement. |
| Predicted Finishing Position Saturday | First | Second | Ocean Park | I really, really wanted to call Silent Achiever here, but I just couldn't do it, I have totally bought into the Ocean Park hype, however I think I will place some money on Silent Achiever. |
| Overall | Won 7 Categories | Won 7 Categories | Even | After all of this it is fairly even between these two and we are probably looking at the New Zealand Derby and Oaks winners this year. |
This seemingly unexciting race is really shaping up like a battle between two potential Group 1 winners. Now that I have sufficiently jinxed both of these feel free to put your money on Shuka this weekend. I really think Silent Achiever has a fairly clear run to the Oaks with less competition, I am very weary of Knight's Tour as competition to Ocean Park to the derby. I think if Ocean Park wins this he will likely shorten slightly for the Derby and Silent Achiever will probably not move too much in regard to the Oaks, conversely if Silent Achiever wins she will probably be significantly shorter as Oaks favourite, we Knights Tour may take over as Derby favourite. There is a lot at stake this weekend for these two horses.
Thursday, 22 December 2011
3YO Power Rankings for December
There have not been a lot of changes since the last of the 3YO Power Rankings, however once we hit the new year things should change rapidly with more big races. There has been a Group 1 win from distil, and Antonio Lombardo has lost his last couple, Duckworth Lewis continues his improvement as a 3YO, I have also spied what may be an emerging Oaks contender for later in the season.
Firstly the Levin Classic, an excellent win from Distil, and a performance from a wide barrier draw from Randall to beat the hot favourite Antonio Lombardo, on the back of that they should make an appearance in this list, however it most likely wont be for long because I have read they are both likely heading out of the country (Distil and Randall articles).
I am not too worried about Andonio Lombardo, I still think that Levin Classic run was unlucky because of the effort required to get into that leadership role. He has then followed up with a run for fifth in the WFA challenge stakes over the weekend behind some very good horses again when favourite, definitely worth giving him more chances because he is definitely talented but the bloom is slightly off the rose.
Duckworth Lewis was very good for fifth from a wide barrier at Group 1 Level when he looked to have a tough race, he followed this up with another victory over more than 2000m against 3YO's at listed level. He is continuing to look at home over more distance and particularly seems to like racing at Ellerslie.
I was at Ellerslie's last Twlight racing meeting a couple of weeks ago and I saw one of the more impressive finishes I have seen in person. In race 6 a seemingly meaningless 1600m maiden Silent Achiever was probably a good two lengths back with 100m to go and won by a length an a half. It was very impressive for an Oaks nominated horse who should continue to get better.
Onto the Rankings...
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings: Dollario (9), Burgundy (10) through no fault of their own.
Honourable Mention: Dollario, Burgundy (Might move up on Boxing day), Randall (Hardest omission), Artistic (In Eight Carat Boxing day), Shanghai Bund (Should win at rating 85 Boxing day), Testa Secret (very hard to follow), Silent Achiever, Abeautifulred, Shuka
Number 10 - President Lincoln (8) - Only dropping because of the impressive performances from higher ranked horses on this list.
Number 9 - Zurella (NA) - Climbing the rankings with her first Group win beating a strong field.
Number 8 - Dowager Queen (3) - Ran fifth in a pretty good field of fillies, however Zurella is definitely the improving 3YO Filly. The distance was probably a little short for what she has been racing over recently, so look for improvement as the distance increases.
Number 7 - Duckworth Lewis (8) - Moving up and continuing to win.
Number 6 - Distil (N/A) - On the strength of a Group 1 win. He will continue to fall in this list if it is not in NZ.
Number 5 - Planet Rock (6) - On Boxing day the Eight Carat Classic should sort out a few of these rankings, it is looking like an excellent race, including numbers five and eight on this list, as well as Artistic, Holy Moly, Silent Achiever, Abeautifulred, and Testa Secret as well as undefeated Xanadu.
Number 4 - Anabandana (5) - Since her second in the Guineas she has not raced, there are going to be some great 3YO fillies races later in the year.
Number 3 - Antonio Lombardo (2) - Not quite as powerful following two losses, but has to stay ahead of some of these because of the quality of those fields.
Number 2 - Rock'n'Pop (4) - Moves up because both Antonio Lombardo move down the rankings, still a Group 1 winner in its own right.
Number 1 - Sangster (1) - Can't fault something that has not raced since the last rankings, and nothing has really stepped up to take his place.
Firstly the Levin Classic, an excellent win from Distil, and a performance from a wide barrier draw from Randall to beat the hot favourite Antonio Lombardo, on the back of that they should make an appearance in this list, however it most likely wont be for long because I have read they are both likely heading out of the country (Distil and Randall articles).
I am not too worried about Andonio Lombardo, I still think that Levin Classic run was unlucky because of the effort required to get into that leadership role. He has then followed up with a run for fifth in the WFA challenge stakes over the weekend behind some very good horses again when favourite, definitely worth giving him more chances because he is definitely talented but the bloom is slightly off the rose.
Duckworth Lewis was very good for fifth from a wide barrier at Group 1 Level when he looked to have a tough race, he followed this up with another victory over more than 2000m against 3YO's at listed level. He is continuing to look at home over more distance and particularly seems to like racing at Ellerslie.
I was at Ellerslie's last Twlight racing meeting a couple of weeks ago and I saw one of the more impressive finishes I have seen in person. In race 6 a seemingly meaningless 1600m maiden Silent Achiever was probably a good two lengths back with 100m to go and won by a length an a half. It was very impressive for an Oaks nominated horse who should continue to get better.
Onto the Rankings...
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings: Dollario (9), Burgundy (10) through no fault of their own.
Honourable Mention: Dollario, Burgundy (Might move up on Boxing day), Randall (Hardest omission), Artistic (In Eight Carat Boxing day), Shanghai Bund (Should win at rating 85 Boxing day), Testa Secret (very hard to follow), Silent Achiever, Abeautifulred, Shuka
Number 10 - President Lincoln (8) - Only dropping because of the impressive performances from higher ranked horses on this list.
Number 9 - Zurella (NA) - Climbing the rankings with her first Group win beating a strong field.
Number 8 - Dowager Queen (3) - Ran fifth in a pretty good field of fillies, however Zurella is definitely the improving 3YO Filly. The distance was probably a little short for what she has been racing over recently, so look for improvement as the distance increases.
Number 7 - Duckworth Lewis (8) - Moving up and continuing to win.
Number 6 - Distil (N/A) - On the strength of a Group 1 win. He will continue to fall in this list if it is not in NZ.
Number 5 - Planet Rock (6) - On Boxing day the Eight Carat Classic should sort out a few of these rankings, it is looking like an excellent race, including numbers five and eight on this list, as well as Artistic, Holy Moly, Silent Achiever, Abeautifulred, and Testa Secret as well as undefeated Xanadu.
Number 4 - Anabandana (5) - Since her second in the Guineas she has not raced, there are going to be some great 3YO fillies races later in the year.
Number 3 - Antonio Lombardo (2) - Not quite as powerful following two losses, but has to stay ahead of some of these because of the quality of those fields.
Number 2 - Rock'n'Pop (4) - Moves up because both Antonio Lombardo move down the rankings, still a Group 1 winner in its own right.
Number 1 - Sangster (1) - Can't fault something that has not raced since the last rankings, and nothing has really stepped up to take his place.
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