What is it about raining Thursdays or Fridays this year? It makes it very difficult to make any kind of predictions about what might happen with remaining uncertainty over the potential track conditions. This time of year we see the return of a lot of winter runners, as well as summer runners finishing their run so it does really make a difference.
On initial glance this is a very difficult week to pick six, but with $250,000 on the table it is probably worth a shot.
Leg 1 - Race 4 - Rating 75 1200m
Hard to not include
#1 - A Keepa
Reason to Include
The most experienced 1200m horse in the field. Very close last time for fourth, steps back in rating and will have to carry more weight. Is consistent and well drawn.
Reason to leave out
The weight will be a factor, and the record at Te Rapa is also suspect, however has not run there since July and August of 2010, so there has been some time, overall he does seem to perform slightly better going right handed.
#2 - Baldovino
Reason to Include
He goes well fresh winning his first three starts before stepping up to Group 1 level earlier this season. Any rain should help improve his performance. The step back in class should suit, and the Te Rapa record is sound. The weight should not concern.
Reason to Leave out
Was early this season a flash in the pan?
#6 - Tango Terrific
Reason to include
Back after over a month off, that is a state in which he has performed well in the past. His last start was at rating 85 over 1400m at Ellerslie, he finished 7th, but he fought on well and really only faded over the last 150m. Has won over the distance.
Reason to leave out
Back in class so will carry significant more weight, he has only ever carried 58kg once for 7th. Has not run left handed a lot throughout his career.
Consider Including
#8 Lucy in Disguise
Reason to include
Super consistent runner. Will go well with a bit of moisture around. 3rd up, has won after a few starts before so should be ready. Last start winner who looked good in that race. 1200 record is strong.
Reason to leave out
This is tougher than the last victory, he will also carry an extra 2kg. She seems to have shown a lot of improvement into this preparation, so it is interesting to see if that will continue. Drawn barrier 15, not the best starter so could have a bit of extra work to do in this company.
#12 - Street Party
Reason to include
Was unlucky stepping up last start, was racing up in class prior to this. Back to 1200m which is an ideal distance and is well weighted here.
Reason to leave out
Barrier 19 will make things tough, she was drawn 14 four starts back and it was not ideal, so she may struggle here. The rain may make things difficult.
#14 - Cap Eden Roc
Reason to include
The overall record stands out, good over the distance, and if the surface is dead she has performed well.
Reason to leave out
Has struggled stepping up in class, she might be well backed but struggle here.
#3 - Prince of Wales
Reasons to Include
Will have his first start since boxing day 2010, he always goes well fresh. A very consistent runner, only once out of the first four. Should go well over 1200m although will potentially be searching for more distance.
Reason to leave out
A question over the long lay out, I also question the amount of weight he might carry here. Draw may make things a bit tough.
#9 - Sateka
Reasons to include
A well weighted mare who has been in good form recently.
Reason to leave out
This looks a big step up, this race contains some tough competition.
Leg 2 - Race 5 - 3YO Group 3 - 1200m
Hard not to include
#2 - Burgundy
Reason to include
A lot has been said about the win in the Mr Tiz Trophy last start, 1200m is going to suit this very classy runner. Possible anchor who wont worry about the conditions and is drawn to get an ideal run. He could overpower them.
Reason not to include
Watch the last start of Ginner Hart again, while that is not a reason not to include, it is a reason he may not be the perfect Anchor. He has been well backed a lot of times and not always proved himself worthy of the hype.
#1 - Ginner Hart
Reason to include
Was close to flawless last week against a tough field of more experienced runners. Dropping back to 1200m has suited well, he will handle all conditions well.
Reason not to include
He will carry the same set weight here, that is 3.5kg more than last week. You have to go back to early starts as a 2YO and 3YO since he has carried that and looked good.
Consider Including
#9 - Holy Moly
Reason to include
One of the best non winning performances of the year was her 3rd here in October, that was to Antonio Lombardo and Anabandana, while beating Artistic, Chicarita and Caiprinha. That was a long time ago, but she is classy at best. She has shown some of that in her last two starts. It looks like another run over 1200m will suit.
Reason to leave out
She tailed off quickly after a good start to the season against tougher competition.
#5 Golden Globe
Reason to include
Has been super consistent in a limited number of starts but has displayed potential. He has been freshened since November and has won in that state before. Looks like a pure sprinter and will not mind any rain.
Reason to Leave out
This seems like a step up in class, he will face some accomplished runners this weekend. Drawn wide, but will push forward so may negate that.
#3 Precision King
Reason to include
As consistent as he has been he has looked really good over his last couple of starts. He has been great over 1200m and on left handed tracks. He will handle the ground well.
Reason to leave out
He has seemed to get some interference or maybe just not started well the last couple of times from similar draws, he might try to push forward, but it looks like there are a few speedy runners which could make this a challenging task.
#4 - Casting Stones
Reason to include
Has won last two starts, consistent before that, looks like 1200m is ideal.
Reason to leave out
Drawn wide, is taking a step up in class, was pretty handily beaten he took on some of the better 3YO's in December and this is tougher.
Leg 3 - Race 6 - Open Handicap - 1600m
Hard to Leave out
#2 Alegrio
Reason to include
He didn't disappoint stepping up to Group 1 level with a solid and close 8th. 1600m is his best distance and he does go well at Te Rapa with a couple of wins.
Reason to leave out
The start before the Easter Handicap was less impressive, he will carry an extra 2kg here because of the relative drop in quality. Consistent early this year and has tailed off a bit, however has previously won several races after a number of starts.
#7 - Sum Up
Reason to include
Two races of note, the 6th in the Easter Handicap was strong, and the second in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was also notable.
Reason to leave out
There is a case to be made that more distance would better suit, however in this company over 1600m I think he will go well. The wide draw may concern, he has been pretty lucky with draws recently.
Consider Including
#1 - Indikator
Reason to include
Wasn't terrible when 8th second up last time, however he has won 5 times 3rd or 4th up, so he should be ready for this. 1600m is a distance he has won on and he showed it with a good finish last time. He will suit any track conditions.
Reason to leave out
He is probably searching for a bit more distance, he has not won over less than 2000m for some time now.
#3 Atom Cat
Reason to include
9th behind Alegrio in the Easter, but there was a gap. He might have had and excuse, he did come for them late, in a smaller field he may have ran closer. He will like some give in the track and has won 3rd up a couple of times. I thought he might give some cheek last time, maybe this is the time to watch out.
Reason to leave out
It has been a while between drinks, he has not been great of late. It feels like he should be racing in this class, but he has not been winning.
#5 Worthing
Reason to include
I always like a runner who
performs of a track even when things are not going as well elsewhere.
He was in better form the last couple of Te Rapa runs before the failure
here this prep.
Reason to leave out
He has not been in the best form, you would be taking purely because of his preference for the track.
#15 Time Keeper
Reason to include
The run on Wednesday was very strong. Not sure if we can expect to see a run or not, but I suspect you may have to include if we do. Has won 3 in a row before, but each had a two week break.
Reason to leave out
This is a horse who gets better with running, but two in 4 days? and for a $40k Open race, what is the point? It will be interesting to see how Sir Slick 2.0 goes. By my count he has run 13 times with as little as a week between runs (5 weeks in a row at one point), he has only won 1 of those races.
Leg 4 - Race 7 - 3YO - 2000m (You are very happy if you are still alive right now)
Hard to Leave out
#3 Post D'France
Reason to include
Looks a great staying prospect as he has built to a strong win last start. This is slightly tougher, but he has always ran on well enough to indicate that 2000m+ is suitable.
Reason to leave out
Has not really been as consistent and this step up in class may be a concern.
#2 Red Shift
Reason to include
He has been freshened since decent performance in the Derby, back to 2000m and back in class, at a distance which would appear to suit against runners who are at his level. Now with Roger James who is having an outstanding run. One of those runners who always looks good before races, he is big and strong and should get better.
Reason to leave out
You could argue he is impossible to leave out. If you are going to leave him out possibly look to the 7th two starts back.
Consider including
#1 Dowager Queen
Reason to include
This consistent filly has been good without been outstanding since her return from Melbourne. She was freshened slightly before her last start and is now building up to more suitable distances. She will come for them and hit the line well, she will handle moisture in the track.
Reason to leave out
Leave out if you are not sure of the recent form. If you took away what she did in Melbourne she is probably hard to have here.
#7 Ryan John
Reason to include
Still a maiden, but probably improved for the 2000m start, that was actually at a higher grade, so he should be more suited to this. Pretty decent third on the track last start, locally trained.
Reason to leave out
Maiden runner, dead track may have concerned two starts back.
#9 Vittoria
Reason to include
Fourth in the Oaks in Victoria shows ability, she should improve with a couple of runs and more distance. The 9th last start was only 3 lengths back, not too bad.
Reason to leave out
Is a three length loss at rating 75 enough evidence that she will improve enough to win this, I am not so sure.
#6 Tiberius
Reason to include
Looks like an improving runner who will be suited to the rise in distance.
Reason to leave out
The rise in class might be the concern.
Leg 5 - Race 8 - F&M WFA Group 2 - 2000m (excitement building if you are still alive)
Hard to leave out
#1 Postmans Daughter
Reason to include
My pro Postmans Daughter bias will be exposed here, but I think she has been great all year. She proved it in the Easter, 1600m was short of ideal and she impressed for a very close second.2000m should be ideal. She has had two fourths at Open WFA level over this distance, both times beaten by the boys and Shez Sinsational/Scarlett Lady
Reason to leave out
While she was not far off at Te Aorah I thought she might be due for a break then she showed up in the Easter, but that was under a very light weight.
#3 Lady Kipling
Reason to include
Has beaten Postmans Daughter under these conditions. Not last time, but at Boxing day. Beat PD last start at equal weight over 1600m. 2000m is going to suit.Good record at Te Rapa.
Reason to leave out
Although capable, she has never won past 1600m.
Consider including
#16 Joy's Choice
Reason to include
3YO runners in WFA
conditions are certainly tempting. She has looked good this year and has
improved over more distance. 5th in the Oaks, and two good runs prior
to that over 2000 and 2100m. She also seems to like Te Rapa
Reason to leave out
Despite going close a few times she has not won at this type of level. This is tough against the older runners.
#2 Floria
Reasons to include
Handled WFA conditions well when 6th in the Group 1. This is similar but longer. The added distance shouldn't be a massive issue.
Reasons to leave out
The race is quite similar to other races which have not resulted in success.
#5 Villify
Reason to include
I like more in the rain, but she looks like the step up to 2000m may be suitable. She has won here and the draw will be ideal.
Reason to leave out
Still looks more suitable to handicap conditions a this stage.
#9 Mini Pearl
Reason to include
Probably would not have been this high on her before her last start, however that was a pretty good win over this distance against decent competition. Seemed to be building well towards that point and scored a good victory.
Reason to leave out
Seems to be best on good tracks, and this is a big step up from recent starts.
Leg 6 - Race 9 - Rating 75 - 2400m
Hard to leave out
#7 Manhattan Mam
Reason to include
On the strength of that last victory. Was pretty good in the Oaks and has carried on well. More distance should suit.
Reason to leave out
Yet to succeed left handed. Both wins have been on good tracks.
Consider including
#4 Gold Cape
Reason to include
Dropping back in class from a good 4th in a strong race over 2000m where she fought well. 2400m looks like a distance which will be suitable.
Reason to leave out
Yet to win over 2400m and will actually carry more weight than last start here.
#8 Bob Valdez
Reason to include
Strong winner here two
starts ago, looked like there was more to give. Has been pretty
consistent if you throw out the wet track results.
Reason to leave out
If the track is worse than dead or if it has been chopped up by this late
race (of course you will have already made this bet by then)
#3 Stingray
Reason to include
Consistent, beat Bob Valdez last time out. Has recently shown strong finishes, 2400m should suit.
Reason to leave out
Stepping up in grade, distance, and not really getting a lot of weight relief.
#5 Runaway Bride
Reason to include
Look at the odds she has paid this prep, even after winning 2 in a row she was still paying massive odds, she looks like one who is always over looked. 2400m should suit now.
Reason to leave out
Leave out if you don't believe this current form swing, she has been overlooked a lot recently.
How to play
It is a tough Pick 6 because there is no clear anchor, there are not even many legs where taking two would feel comfortable. Look at the last leg, what a mess, so I guess you have to consider weather you take a risk early and end up with five runners in the last leg, however there is no reason to have five runners when you are knocked out in the second leg.
Leg 1 - 1,2,6,8
Leg 2 - 1,2
Leg 3 - 2,7,1
Leg 4 - 2,3,7
Leg 5 - 1,3
Leg 6 - 7,4
That is 288 combinations, so maybe one to get together with some mates to try to get a percentage of it. If you want to go cheaper I would consider going only number 7 in the last as it is the anchor I am most comfortable with. I possibly would leave out number 7 in the fourth leg as well (or number 1 in the third), that would leave you with 96 combinations. I think we could get close to another jackpot for next week.
Showing posts with label Te Rapa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Te Rapa. Show all posts
Friday, 27 April 2012
Friday, 10 February 2012
Seven highlights of the racing weekend
Big weekend coming up in racing on both sides of the Tasman. There is a lot to look forward to, here is a list of my top seven things to look forward to on the track this weekend, in no particular order (other than the fact it will be chronological).
Reason One
Location: Hamilton
Time: 2.43pm
Huge race day in Hamilton this weekend, it is always a good day out, I would love to be down their again this weekend but unfortunately I will have to write about it instead. There are two Group 1's and a Group 2. The Sir Tristram Fillies Classic is one of those races which falls into the Group 2 category but year after year produces a stunning field which could be seen at Group 1 level. Last year Kings Rose followed up her victory in the 2010 Thousand Guineas with a victory in the Cambridge Stud Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. Planet Rock is looking to accomplish the same feat this year, and will be hoping to reproduce the same success that Kings Rose went on to have over the course of the rest of 2011.
The field she will face at Te Rapa this weekend contains a number of runners who hold nominations to the New Zealand Oaks and this is definitely one of those events which will indicate how likely these fillies are to be able to compete in that race.
The highlights include the aforementioned Planet Rock who won the Guineas and the Eight Carat Classic before going down to Chicharita in the Royal Stakes on New Years day. She looked better than 4th in that race and will likely run better in this event after a month off and having her second look at 2000m.
Chicharita the Royal Stakes winner who has had her two worst performances at Te Rapa, that Royal Stakes finish was impressive and a good draw should keep her handy but this does feel like a tougher race.
Up and coming Quintessential who has been notable with solid performances since her second start. She stepped up and won at Group 3 level in Wellington recently, based on that race I would put her in a similar boat to Artistic in relation to this race, both runs were similar and Quintessential won that time, but both ran similar races that day.
Zurella was highly rated heading into the Royal Stakes but she finished a pretty distant fifth, it may have been the distance or the conditions which effected her, but she has talent and deserves to be considered. Abeautifulred is putting together a decent run of races, however she does seem to encounter better horses having better days, this looks tough but she should be around the first few home.
Artistic, is having a similar season to Abeautifulred, since beating the colts in the Bonecrusher stakes she has had a string of fourth's before her striking third to Quintessential recently, it feels like she has the firepower to win this, she just needs things to go her way to be in a handy position for the finish.
Capital Diamond is never far away and showed great fight to not only chase down Abeautifulred, but to hold off the flying Artistic in the Desert Gold Stakes, the step up to 2000m shouldn't concern, she has the ability to remain consistent.
Our Famous Eve nominated here and in the Darci Brahma International she is probably better suited here, but despite the impressive Royal Stakes second I cannot help but think some of the other talent here will catch up with her.
Of the rest Leica Duell seems to have the form over a bit more ground, but it is hard to see the winner not coming from the top half of the field on Saturday.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - Should be better this time at 2000m, the draw is a concern, this is a pick on talent
Second - Artistic - We will see another one of those flying finishes she produces, if she starts her run with room she can win.
Third - Quintessential - Should be better positioned from barrier three to unleash another strong finish
Forth - Zurella - With a good track she deserves another shot at 2000m
Value - Hard to see a candidate who is far over the odds here, maybe some value around Quintessential and Capital Diamond
Reason Two
Location: Hamilton
Time: 3.53pm
Group 1 racing is always a reason to get excited and this race includes a number of factors which deserve attention, there are contenders in this race who I would not have thought would be contenders a month ago. Based on the Boxing Day performance it is hard to go past Shez Sensational, forget the 1600m Group 1 it was too short 2000m is far more suitable.
At weight for age level quality three year old's are hard to go past when making selections and Rock'n'Pop looks like a genuine contender. I remember last year on this day We Can Say It Now looked like a strong contender at Group 1 Level in the Waikato Draft Sprint but came up against a resurgent Mufhasa as well as Wall Street and Keep the Peace who had impressive seasons. Rock'n'Pop may be better suited this year in this event.
How about some of the unlikely contenders here:
Six O'Clock News - Speaking of resurgent, the Wellington Cup was great, this is tougher but he is back in form.
Booming - WFA conditions are the most suitable for Booming, 2000m is the most suitable distance too.
Doctor Fremantle - After Boxing Day you have to consider him, was that a fluke or is there better to come?
Postman's Daughter - After the counties win in November she looked to go off, but she is back racing well, WFA does concern, but she still carried 56kg for second in the Thorndon Mile.
Our Famous Eve - If she runs, at 52kgs she could be dangerous.
The Picks
First: Shez Sensational - Too good boxing day in a very similar and possibly tougher race.
Second: Rock'n'Pop - Strong, lightweight, genuine contender.
Third: Hold it Harvey - 2kg relative difference in weight to Six O'Clock News from their last meeting.
Forth: Six O'Clock News - Will give the recent form respect for now.
Value: If Our Famous Eve runs their could be value, however I would suggest that if Six O'Clock News can put on another show the $12 going at the moment is great value.
Reason Three
Location: Hamilton
Time: 5.03pm
The second Group 1 of the day might be even better in the fact that it contains the defending champion Mufhasa and recent 1200m Group 1 winner Guiseppina stepping up to weight for age conditions. Then there is Veyron, a Group 1 winner undefeated over 1400m stepping back from a second over 2000m at WFA conditions. Then there is Sangster a talented 3YO who won his last start in a small race called the Victorian Derby. This may be a three horse race for first, but it should be an interesting three horse race.
The Picks
First: Mufhasa - Simply too good
Second: Guiseppina - Came home so well 1400m really appeals, capable of carrying the weight and winning
Third: Veyron - First time not winning over 1400m.
Forth: Run Like Al - Formidable record on the course and has won three over 1400m
Value - Run Like Al - Although he will have to put on a show to finish better than forth.
Reason Four
Location: Caulfield
Who doesn't love an underdog story? A battler fighting for respect, doing their best and trying to beat the odds. Well this Saturday at Caulfield you will get to witness a horse having her 18th start, having only won a measly $4.5million, her connections hoping that stepping up to 1400m will be what it takes to finally break through for that treasured victory (the 18th one they treasure). The stands will be dripping with Salmon and Black as the crowds come in force to farewell Black Caviar as she heads off in search of stronger competition. It will be a special occasion, it is rare to see an athlete connecting with the general population and transcending their sport to gain the attention of people who would not normally be interested, Black Caviar as accomplished this with her domination through 17 starts, and it looks to continue this weekend, it is definitely something to look forward to this weekend.
Reason Five
Location: Caulfield
Time: 5.50pm
Looking past the fact that simply having Black Caviar run makes this a special occasion, the race she is running in itself is something to look forward to. This race features a number of Group 1 winners, a Caulfield Cup Winner, a Melbourne Cup Winner, multiple horses with over or close to a million in earnings. This race will ask a question of Black Caviar, which doesn't happen too often and probably has not happened since Hay List asked some questions briefly last year, this question is the 1400m which is the first time she will attempt this distance.
Well here is the answer, of course she will handle the 1400m, she runs 1200m with out even getting out of second gear, if she needs to she can at least kick it into third. She finishes races with so much left in the tank that an extra 200m cannot possibly be a concern.
In regard to the quality competition, unfortunately only two of the horses in this race will likely have their next start at this distance, and they are unlikely to be a threat. The remaining horses Efficient, Playing God, Midas Touch, Precedence, Illo and Southern Speed are starting (or early in) their Autumn campaign, this is not a race they would have necessarily been targeting but it is a step as they begin to look at longer races.
Yes, Black Caviar will win, this is not a bold prediction, the interesting part of the race will be to see who else is winding up behind her. A lot of these horses met in other races in the spring, this will be a barometer as to how they are looking now and who is likely to finish on top of the longer races later in the Autumn.
Reason Six
Location: Sydney, Rosehill
Time: 6.50pm
There is also a big race on in Sydney this weekend worth watching. It is a 1200m race which features a few notable horses, three who have won over $2 million (Danleigh, Snipers Bullet, and Sacred Choice) and another two who will likely go over that mark should they win here (Rangirangdo and Shoot Out) and . Three of the runners have imposable records on the track (Rangirangdoo, Centennial Park and Winter King). There are a couple of up and comers with strong records to date, Rain Affair has such a impressive record. A couple are likely looking for a bit more ground. All with have ambitions of going on to bigger events later in the Autumn. Definitely something to look forward to.
Reason Seven
Location: Caulfield
Time: 7:10pm
Anabandana's first start in Australia. The quality kiwi filly is having a start over a distance she owned in New Zealand (1200m). This is probably one of the tougher fields she has faced overall, but she has the benefit of having Craig Williams who will make sure she is in the best place to show that turn of foot we all know she has. It will be great to see her over in Australia preparing to take on some of the top horses in the region, this will be a really good indication of just how good she can be.
Those are my highlights for this weekend, it really will be an excellent show at Te Rapa and everyone will have an eye across the Tasman as the Autumn begins to wind up.
Reason One
Location: Hamilton
Time: 2.43pm
Huge race day in Hamilton this weekend, it is always a good day out, I would love to be down their again this weekend but unfortunately I will have to write about it instead. There are two Group 1's and a Group 2. The Sir Tristram Fillies Classic is one of those races which falls into the Group 2 category but year after year produces a stunning field which could be seen at Group 1 level. Last year Kings Rose followed up her victory in the 2010 Thousand Guineas with a victory in the Cambridge Stud Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. Planet Rock is looking to accomplish the same feat this year, and will be hoping to reproduce the same success that Kings Rose went on to have over the course of the rest of 2011.
The field she will face at Te Rapa this weekend contains a number of runners who hold nominations to the New Zealand Oaks and this is definitely one of those events which will indicate how likely these fillies are to be able to compete in that race.
The highlights include the aforementioned Planet Rock who won the Guineas and the Eight Carat Classic before going down to Chicharita in the Royal Stakes on New Years day. She looked better than 4th in that race and will likely run better in this event after a month off and having her second look at 2000m.
Chicharita the Royal Stakes winner who has had her two worst performances at Te Rapa, that Royal Stakes finish was impressive and a good draw should keep her handy but this does feel like a tougher race.
Up and coming Quintessential who has been notable with solid performances since her second start. She stepped up and won at Group 3 level in Wellington recently, based on that race I would put her in a similar boat to Artistic in relation to this race, both runs were similar and Quintessential won that time, but both ran similar races that day.
Zurella was highly rated heading into the Royal Stakes but she finished a pretty distant fifth, it may have been the distance or the conditions which effected her, but she has talent and deserves to be considered. Abeautifulred is putting together a decent run of races, however she does seem to encounter better horses having better days, this looks tough but she should be around the first few home.
Artistic, is having a similar season to Abeautifulred, since beating the colts in the Bonecrusher stakes she has had a string of fourth's before her striking third to Quintessential recently, it feels like she has the firepower to win this, she just needs things to go her way to be in a handy position for the finish.
Capital Diamond is never far away and showed great fight to not only chase down Abeautifulred, but to hold off the flying Artistic in the Desert Gold Stakes, the step up to 2000m shouldn't concern, she has the ability to remain consistent.
Our Famous Eve nominated here and in the Darci Brahma International she is probably better suited here, but despite the impressive Royal Stakes second I cannot help but think some of the other talent here will catch up with her.
Of the rest Leica Duell seems to have the form over a bit more ground, but it is hard to see the winner not coming from the top half of the field on Saturday.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - Should be better this time at 2000m, the draw is a concern, this is a pick on talent
Second - Artistic - We will see another one of those flying finishes she produces, if she starts her run with room she can win.
Third - Quintessential - Should be better positioned from barrier three to unleash another strong finish
Forth - Zurella - With a good track she deserves another shot at 2000m
Value - Hard to see a candidate who is far over the odds here, maybe some value around Quintessential and Capital Diamond
Reason Two
Location: Hamilton
Time: 3.53pm
Group 1 racing is always a reason to get excited and this race includes a number of factors which deserve attention, there are contenders in this race who I would not have thought would be contenders a month ago. Based on the Boxing Day performance it is hard to go past Shez Sensational, forget the 1600m Group 1 it was too short 2000m is far more suitable.
At weight for age level quality three year old's are hard to go past when making selections and Rock'n'Pop looks like a genuine contender. I remember last year on this day We Can Say It Now looked like a strong contender at Group 1 Level in the Waikato Draft Sprint but came up against a resurgent Mufhasa as well as Wall Street and Keep the Peace who had impressive seasons. Rock'n'Pop may be better suited this year in this event.
How about some of the unlikely contenders here:
Six O'Clock News - Speaking of resurgent, the Wellington Cup was great, this is tougher but he is back in form.
Booming - WFA conditions are the most suitable for Booming, 2000m is the most suitable distance too.
Doctor Fremantle - After Boxing Day you have to consider him, was that a fluke or is there better to come?
Postman's Daughter - After the counties win in November she looked to go off, but she is back racing well, WFA does concern, but she still carried 56kg for second in the Thorndon Mile.
Our Famous Eve - If she runs, at 52kgs she could be dangerous.
The Picks
First: Shez Sensational - Too good boxing day in a very similar and possibly tougher race.
Second: Rock'n'Pop - Strong, lightweight, genuine contender.
Third: Hold it Harvey - 2kg relative difference in weight to Six O'Clock News from their last meeting.
Forth: Six O'Clock News - Will give the recent form respect for now.
Value: If Our Famous Eve runs their could be value, however I would suggest that if Six O'Clock News can put on another show the $12 going at the moment is great value.
Reason Three
Location: Hamilton
Time: 5.03pm
The second Group 1 of the day might be even better in the fact that it contains the defending champion Mufhasa and recent 1200m Group 1 winner Guiseppina stepping up to weight for age conditions. Then there is Veyron, a Group 1 winner undefeated over 1400m stepping back from a second over 2000m at WFA conditions. Then there is Sangster a talented 3YO who won his last start in a small race called the Victorian Derby. This may be a three horse race for first, but it should be an interesting three horse race.
The Picks
First: Mufhasa - Simply too good
Second: Guiseppina - Came home so well 1400m really appeals, capable of carrying the weight and winning
Third: Veyron - First time not winning over 1400m.
Forth: Run Like Al - Formidable record on the course and has won three over 1400m
Value - Run Like Al - Although he will have to put on a show to finish better than forth.
Reason Four
Location: Caulfield
Who doesn't love an underdog story? A battler fighting for respect, doing their best and trying to beat the odds. Well this Saturday at Caulfield you will get to witness a horse having her 18th start, having only won a measly $4.5million, her connections hoping that stepping up to 1400m will be what it takes to finally break through for that treasured victory (the 18th one they treasure). The stands will be dripping with Salmon and Black as the crowds come in force to farewell Black Caviar as she heads off in search of stronger competition. It will be a special occasion, it is rare to see an athlete connecting with the general population and transcending their sport to gain the attention of people who would not normally be interested, Black Caviar as accomplished this with her domination through 17 starts, and it looks to continue this weekend, it is definitely something to look forward to this weekend.
Reason Five
Location: Caulfield
Time: 5.50pm
Looking past the fact that simply having Black Caviar run makes this a special occasion, the race she is running in itself is something to look forward to. This race features a number of Group 1 winners, a Caulfield Cup Winner, a Melbourne Cup Winner, multiple horses with over or close to a million in earnings. This race will ask a question of Black Caviar, which doesn't happen too often and probably has not happened since Hay List asked some questions briefly last year, this question is the 1400m which is the first time she will attempt this distance.
Well here is the answer, of course she will handle the 1400m, she runs 1200m with out even getting out of second gear, if she needs to she can at least kick it into third. She finishes races with so much left in the tank that an extra 200m cannot possibly be a concern.
In regard to the quality competition, unfortunately only two of the horses in this race will likely have their next start at this distance, and they are unlikely to be a threat. The remaining horses Efficient, Playing God, Midas Touch, Precedence, Illo and Southern Speed are starting (or early in) their Autumn campaign, this is not a race they would have necessarily been targeting but it is a step as they begin to look at longer races.
Yes, Black Caviar will win, this is not a bold prediction, the interesting part of the race will be to see who else is winding up behind her. A lot of these horses met in other races in the spring, this will be a barometer as to how they are looking now and who is likely to finish on top of the longer races later in the Autumn.
Reason Six
Location: Sydney, Rosehill
Time: 6.50pm
There is also a big race on in Sydney this weekend worth watching. It is a 1200m race which features a few notable horses, three who have won over $2 million (Danleigh, Snipers Bullet, and Sacred Choice) and another two who will likely go over that mark should they win here (Rangirangdo and Shoot Out) and . Three of the runners have imposable records on the track (Rangirangdoo, Centennial Park and Winter King). There are a couple of up and comers with strong records to date, Rain Affair has such a impressive record. A couple are likely looking for a bit more ground. All with have ambitions of going on to bigger events later in the Autumn. Definitely something to look forward to.
Reason Seven
Location: Caulfield
Time: 7:10pm
Anabandana's first start in Australia. The quality kiwi filly is having a start over a distance she owned in New Zealand (1200m). This is probably one of the tougher fields she has faced overall, but she has the benefit of having Craig Williams who will make sure she is in the best place to show that turn of foot we all know she has. It will be great to see her over in Australia preparing to take on some of the top horses in the region, this will be a really good indication of just how good she can be.
Those are my highlights for this weekend, it really will be an excellent show at Te Rapa and everyone will have an eye across the Tasman as the Autumn begins to wind up.
Friday, 3 February 2012
The most interesting thing this weekend
It has been an eventful week in New Zealand racing with the Karaka Sales. Given that this is the case I still couldn't think of anything to write about this weekends racing action. I was not really interested in looking into anything happening at Otago, the Waikato races interest me but with the smallish Waikato Guineas field I didn't see the point in going into detail. My next thought was with the Sydney Autumn carnival just around the corner it might be worth having a look at races across the ditch and see how the build up is going, however after having a look at the fields in Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland nothing really grabbed my attention, I even had a quick scan of the races on Adelaide and Perth.
I was left with nothing to write about, more so than usual (or should that be less so?) and it has not stopped me in the past. I asked myself, what am I most interested in this weekend? The answer is the Waikato Guineas, but not really the race itself, the battle between leading Derby contender Ocean Park, and leading Oaks contender Silent Achiever (see I told you I would find a way to bring her up in every post until the Oaks).
In this post I will disrespect (and probably regret it later) every other horse they will face this weekend and commence a "tale of the tape" style breakdown on the Ocean Park vs Silent Achiever. Yes, and entire post focusing on two horses in a Group 3 race (that sound you just heard was every other reader slamming their palm on their forehead and rapidly clicking away from this post).
This seemingly unexciting race is really shaping up like a battle between two potential Group 1 winners. Now that I have sufficiently jinxed both of these feel free to put your money on Shuka this weekend. I really think Silent Achiever has a fairly clear run to the Oaks with less competition, I am very weary of Knight's Tour as competition to Ocean Park to the derby. I think if Ocean Park wins this he will likely shorten slightly for the Derby and Silent Achiever will probably not move too much in regard to the Oaks, conversely if Silent Achiever wins she will probably be significantly shorter as Oaks favourite, we Knights Tour may take over as Derby favourite. There is a lot at stake this weekend for these two horses.
I was left with nothing to write about, more so than usual (or should that be less so?) and it has not stopped me in the past. I asked myself, what am I most interested in this weekend? The answer is the Waikato Guineas, but not really the race itself, the battle between leading Derby contender Ocean Park, and leading Oaks contender Silent Achiever (see I told you I would find a way to bring her up in every post until the Oaks).
In this post I will disrespect (and probably regret it later) every other horse they will face this weekend and commence a "tale of the tape" style breakdown on the Ocean Park vs Silent Achiever. Yes, and entire post focusing on two horses in a Group 3 race (that sound you just heard was every other reader slamming their palm on their forehead and rapidly clicking away from this post).
| Category | Ocean Park | Silent Achiever | Edge | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 3YO | 3YO | Even | If you want to get technical Silent Achiever is 25 Days older than Ocean Park. |
| Sex | Colt | Filly | Even | I am not going to touch that one. |
| Overall Record | 4-3-1-0 | 4-2-1-1 | Ocean Park | |
| Distance Record | 0-0 | 0-0 | Silent Achiever | Has won over 2100m while Ocean Park has not raced over more than 1600m, however was so impressive it looked like 2000m will be no problem. |
| Best Win | Jan 21st @ Wellington (1600m Group 3) | Jan 1st @ Ellerslie (2100m Group 2) | Ocean Park | Was so impressive two weeks ago running away over 1600m. |
| Best Loss | December 26th @ Ellerslie 2nd to Knights Tour (1600m Group 2) | December 26th @ Ellerslie 3rd to Planet Rock and Testa Secret (1600m Group 2) | Silent Achiever | Ocean Park's run was amazing for second, but the 3rd was in an absolutely stacked Eight Carat Classic. |
| Jockey | Chad Ormsby | James McDonald | Slight edge, Silent Achiever | It is closer than you may think, Chad Ormsby has a relationship with Ocean Park, but James McDonald is the best Jockey in the country. |
| The Tron | Trained in Matamata, won twice left handed. | Trained in Cambridge, first start left handed. | Ocean Park | Both don't have too far to travel, Ocean Park's left handed results give him the edge. |
| Big Beats | Shuka, Burgundy (twice), Joy's Choice, Nashville, Fort Lincoln | Dowager Queen, Artistic, Xanadu, Holy Moly, Abeautifulred, Shuka | Silent Achiever | Thus far in their respective careers it is clear that Silent Achiever has beaten horses with bigger profiles. |
| Name | Ocean Park? What is that anyway? | Silent Achiever, is that what you really want. | Slight Edge Ocean Park | Neither name really stands out, will give the slight edge to Ocean Park because at least they incorporated the sire Thorn Park, so it is not just something pointless and made up. |
| Colours | Blue with a white cross and sleeves | Gold | Ocean Park | Have to admit that the Silent Achiever colours are a bit boring, then again they are easy to spot during the running. |
| Trainer Success this year | 23-5-1-3 and $90k this year with an impressive 4.6 strike rake, thanks in big part to Ocean Park | 96-17-116-9 and $300k this year at an impressive 5.65 strike rate. Not to mention an Australian Group 1 Victory which was not a victory. | Silent Achiever | But it is relative to the size of their operations. |
| Biggest Derby/Oaks Competition | Knight's Tour | Chicharita | Silent Achiever | Despite the $5 quote, it just looks like an easier race to win. |
| Holy hell that was impressive moment | Pulling away from a Group 3 field and winning impressively last start | Her first win where she flew home over the last 200m for victory. | Ocean Park | I am very biased, I was on course for that Silent Achiever victory, and it was one for the most impressive things I have seen in person. However, that Ocean Park win was at Group 3 level. |
| Who's your daddy? | Thorn Park | O'Reilly | Silent Achiever | Thorn Park Sold 10 Lots @ $126,000 O'Reilly Sold 39 @ $138,077 at the recent premier sale at Karaka. That seems like a fair measurement. |
| Predicted Finishing Position Saturday | First | Second | Ocean Park | I really, really wanted to call Silent Achiever here, but I just couldn't do it, I have totally bought into the Ocean Park hype, however I think I will place some money on Silent Achiever. |
| Overall | Won 7 Categories | Won 7 Categories | Even | After all of this it is fairly even between these two and we are probably looking at the New Zealand Derby and Oaks winners this year. |
This seemingly unexciting race is really shaping up like a battle between two potential Group 1 winners. Now that I have sufficiently jinxed both of these feel free to put your money on Shuka this weekend. I really think Silent Achiever has a fairly clear run to the Oaks with less competition, I am very weary of Knight's Tour as competition to Ocean Park to the derby. I think if Ocean Park wins this he will likely shorten slightly for the Derby and Silent Achiever will probably not move too much in regard to the Oaks, conversely if Silent Achiever wins she will probably be significantly shorter as Oaks favourite, we Knights Tour may take over as Derby favourite. There is a lot at stake this weekend for these two horses.
Thursday, 19 January 2012
Predicting every 2012 Group 1 winner
Sorry, I have been a little quiet recently. I have basically been away since Boxing Day races (which was an awesome day by the way), and my house was broken into prior to Christmas and all three TV's in the house were stolen (which makes it difficult to comment on racing you cannot see), the last thing I wrote was not even for this site, it was for The Punters Forum. I am now back and ready to look forward to another excellent year of racing in 2012.
We are just days away from what is shaping up to be a exciting Telegraph Handicap, so I thought I would pick a winner... I decided I would also try to pick a winner for each of the remaining Group 1 races in New Zealand this season, and the ones next season until the end of 2012 (assuming the World is still here). Obviously, I don't know who will be nominated, the conditions, or what the field may look like, but it should be fun anyway (particularly fun to look back on this and see just how far away I am).
The Date:1 January 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Railway Stakes
My Prediction: Atomic Force
The Reasoning: Ok, maybe I have cheated on that one since it happened 19 days ago.
The Date:21 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Telegraph Handicap
My Prediction: Durham Town
The Reasoning: While I think this is the kind of race which could produce an unexpected winner. I like a few of the horses in this race, but I think the weight relief from the Railway will help. Guiseppina and The Hombre may struggle from their draws. Atomic Force is currently the deserved favourite. To go a bit longer in the odds I like the look of Eight Shillings if he makes the field (and I suspect he will).
The Date:28 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Thorndon Mile Handicap
My Prediction: Dating
The Reasoning: Tough race, Platinum Princess has certainly proved herself, Hold it Harvey seems to like Wellington, and I like the looks of Smoulder and Banchee also, but this looks like the kind of race which could suit Dating and she should compare well with the other contenders in terms of weight.
The Date: 11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Darci Brahma International Stakes
My Prediction: Shez Sensational
The Reasoning: Who is currently the best middle distance WFA horse in the country? After the impressive Zabeel Classic win Shez Sensational certainly has to be considered. Will Jimmy Choux be back from his lay off for this, hard to say.
The Date:11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: International Sprint
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: The defending champion. While he might be out-weighted in the Thorndon Mile and the Telegraph Handicap, WFA conditions should suit Mufhasa here. Obviously, I have no knowledge of when Jimmy Choux might return, but if he does come back for an Autumn campaign this race might be a logical starting point to build up and maybe attack the NZ stakes on Diamond Day during Auckland Cup week.
The Date:25 February 2012
The Location: Otaki
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Otaki WFA
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: Maybe he will be looking to head over to Australia for another shot at a Group 1 so who knows, but last years efforts over 1600m show he can win this type of race over 2000m.
The Date:3 March 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Derby (3YO)
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: I have not really seen a clear cut derby favourite emerge as yet, there also does not appear to be a 3YO who is so talented that they will win this despite not looking like a stayer. A horse like Duckworth Lewis might appeal, but while he is listed on the NZ Racing site he is not on the TAB. Rock'n'Pop, Planet Rock, Artistic, and Shanghai Bund all appeal, but Knight's Tour's win in the Great Northern Guineas is my pick until I get to see the Avondale Guineas and reassess the situation.
The Date:7 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 3200m
The Race: Auckland Cup
My Prediction: Scarlett Lady
The Reasoning: Whilst I enjoyed the New Zealand Cup, it is hard to say if it is a guide to anything you might expect to see here. I think the usual suspects are going to be interesting in this race. I think Scarlett Lady had the class to go well in Melbourne last spring and should be a force in this race.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Diamond Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Who is the top 2YO in the country? who will be the top 2YO in March? Who will win this race? those questions probably have three different answers. I have to go with the class 2YO at the moment, but this could be won by a horse who has not even had a start yet.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: New Zealand Stakes
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: I think he will be back, he is still the best and should win this type of race.
The Date:17 March 2012
The Location:Wellington
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Oaks (3YOF)
My Prediction: Silent Achiever
The Reasoning: I have been on this horse as an Oaks winner since I saw her run at Twlight Races, I was impressed by the flying finish again on Boxing day at Group 2 level, she then won over 2000m at that level (albeit on a rain effected track with a limited field). She is the favourite at this stage and deservedly so.
The Date:31 March 2012
The Location:Manawatu
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Manawatu Sires' Produce Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Have to keep with who looks good at this stage even though this may change by the end of March.
The Date:7 April 2012
The Location: Te Aroha
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (F&M)
My Prediction: Twlight Savings
The Reasoning: Is it just me or does something strange tend to happen in this race most years? We have such a good crop of fillies and mares around at the moment that this should be a very interesting race with a tight betting market.
The Date:14 April 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Easter Handicap
My Prediction: Vincent Street
The Reasoning: I figure a 3YO is winning an Open Group 1 this year, while it is most likely that would win a WFA race the fact that this is a handicap is not unprecedented (Time Keeper last year). It will probably be a horse who goes well on the track, a horse who can handle a wet track (we had a wet Christmas, we are probably getting a wet Easter; sorry to be pessimistic) and one who is not weighted out of it by performances in other Group 1's. Therefore Vincent Street who is currently rated 72 is my pick.
The Date:Late August
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Makfi Challenge Stakes
My Prediction: Antonio Lombardo
The Reasoning: I can't find a Group 1 this season this horse will win, I think 1400m is a strong distance for him and he was so good in the Spring last year.
The Date:September
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Windsor Park Plate
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: If Jimmy is headed for another Cox Plate attempt I can see him defending his crown in this race on his home track first.
The Date: October
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 2040m
The Race: Spring Classic
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: It is too easy to pick Jimmy Choux again, although I feel he will win this I am going to pretend he does not start this race and pick another horse.
I am going to skip making selections for the two Guineas races and the Levin Classic, who knows what the crop of 3YO's will look like by next spring?
The Date: December
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Captain Cook Stakes
My Prediction: Banchee
The Reasoning: I figure a lot of the top milers will be rested after an Aussie spring campaign. This might come down to a horse who has not won a Group One, maybe a horse who is improving to reach this level of contention, maybe even a horse who might not be proven over 1600m yet. Even looking through the list of noms for the Thorndon Mile this year it is hard to know which milers might fit this mold in 11 months time.
The Date:Boxing Day 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Zabeel Classic
My Prediction: Veyron
The Reasoning:Clearly loves Ellerslie, he held up well in this race last year despite it been his first attempt over the distance, another year of possibly taking on more 2000m races and I think he is ready to take this.
We are just days away from what is shaping up to be a exciting Telegraph Handicap, so I thought I would pick a winner... I decided I would also try to pick a winner for each of the remaining Group 1 races in New Zealand this season, and the ones next season until the end of 2012 (assuming the World is still here). Obviously, I don't know who will be nominated, the conditions, or what the field may look like, but it should be fun anyway (particularly fun to look back on this and see just how far away I am).
The Date:1 January 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Railway Stakes
My Prediction: Atomic Force
The Reasoning: Ok, maybe I have cheated on that one since it happened 19 days ago.
The Date:21 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Telegraph Handicap
My Prediction: Durham Town
The Reasoning: While I think this is the kind of race which could produce an unexpected winner. I like a few of the horses in this race, but I think the weight relief from the Railway will help. Guiseppina and The Hombre may struggle from their draws. Atomic Force is currently the deserved favourite. To go a bit longer in the odds I like the look of Eight Shillings if he makes the field (and I suspect he will).
The Date:28 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Thorndon Mile Handicap
My Prediction: Dating
The Reasoning: Tough race, Platinum Princess has certainly proved herself, Hold it Harvey seems to like Wellington, and I like the looks of Smoulder and Banchee also, but this looks like the kind of race which could suit Dating and she should compare well with the other contenders in terms of weight.
The Date: 11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Darci Brahma International Stakes
My Prediction: Shez Sensational
The Reasoning: Who is currently the best middle distance WFA horse in the country? After the impressive Zabeel Classic win Shez Sensational certainly has to be considered. Will Jimmy Choux be back from his lay off for this, hard to say.
The Date:11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: International Sprint
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: The defending champion. While he might be out-weighted in the Thorndon Mile and the Telegraph Handicap, WFA conditions should suit Mufhasa here. Obviously, I have no knowledge of when Jimmy Choux might return, but if he does come back for an Autumn campaign this race might be a logical starting point to build up and maybe attack the NZ stakes on Diamond Day during Auckland Cup week.
The Date:25 February 2012
The Location: Otaki
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Otaki WFA
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: Maybe he will be looking to head over to Australia for another shot at a Group 1 so who knows, but last years efforts over 1600m show he can win this type of race over 2000m.
The Date:3 March 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Derby (3YO)
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: I have not really seen a clear cut derby favourite emerge as yet, there also does not appear to be a 3YO who is so talented that they will win this despite not looking like a stayer. A horse like Duckworth Lewis might appeal, but while he is listed on the NZ Racing site he is not on the TAB. Rock'n'Pop, Planet Rock, Artistic, and Shanghai Bund all appeal, but Knight's Tour's win in the Great Northern Guineas is my pick until I get to see the Avondale Guineas and reassess the situation.
The Date:7 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 3200m
The Race: Auckland Cup
My Prediction: Scarlett Lady
The Reasoning: Whilst I enjoyed the New Zealand Cup, it is hard to say if it is a guide to anything you might expect to see here. I think the usual suspects are going to be interesting in this race. I think Scarlett Lady had the class to go well in Melbourne last spring and should be a force in this race.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Diamond Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Who is the top 2YO in the country? who will be the top 2YO in March? Who will win this race? those questions probably have three different answers. I have to go with the class 2YO at the moment, but this could be won by a horse who has not even had a start yet.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: New Zealand Stakes
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: I think he will be back, he is still the best and should win this type of race.
The Date:17 March 2012
The Location:Wellington
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Oaks (3YOF)
My Prediction: Silent Achiever
The Reasoning: I have been on this horse as an Oaks winner since I saw her run at Twlight Races, I was impressed by the flying finish again on Boxing day at Group 2 level, she then won over 2000m at that level (albeit on a rain effected track with a limited field). She is the favourite at this stage and deservedly so.
The Date:31 March 2012
The Location:Manawatu
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Manawatu Sires' Produce Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Have to keep with who looks good at this stage even though this may change by the end of March.
The Date:7 April 2012
The Location: Te Aroha
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (F&M)
My Prediction: Twlight Savings
The Reasoning: Is it just me or does something strange tend to happen in this race most years? We have such a good crop of fillies and mares around at the moment that this should be a very interesting race with a tight betting market.
The Date:14 April 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Easter Handicap
My Prediction: Vincent Street
The Reasoning: I figure a 3YO is winning an Open Group 1 this year, while it is most likely that would win a WFA race the fact that this is a handicap is not unprecedented (Time Keeper last year). It will probably be a horse who goes well on the track, a horse who can handle a wet track (we had a wet Christmas, we are probably getting a wet Easter; sorry to be pessimistic) and one who is not weighted out of it by performances in other Group 1's. Therefore Vincent Street who is currently rated 72 is my pick.
The Date:Late August
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Makfi Challenge Stakes
My Prediction: Antonio Lombardo
The Reasoning: I can't find a Group 1 this season this horse will win, I think 1400m is a strong distance for him and he was so good in the Spring last year.
The Date:September
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Windsor Park Plate
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: If Jimmy is headed for another Cox Plate attempt I can see him defending his crown in this race on his home track first.
The Date: October
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 2040m
The Race: Spring Classic
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: It is too easy to pick Jimmy Choux again, although I feel he will win this I am going to pretend he does not start this race and pick another horse.
I am going to skip making selections for the two Guineas races and the Levin Classic, who knows what the crop of 3YO's will look like by next spring?
The Date: December
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Captain Cook Stakes
My Prediction: Banchee
The Reasoning: I figure a lot of the top milers will be rested after an Aussie spring campaign. This might come down to a horse who has not won a Group One, maybe a horse who is improving to reach this level of contention, maybe even a horse who might not be proven over 1600m yet. Even looking through the list of noms for the Thorndon Mile this year it is hard to know which milers might fit this mold in 11 months time.
The Date:Boxing Day 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Zabeel Classic
My Prediction: Veyron
The Reasoning:Clearly loves Ellerslie, he held up well in this race last year despite it been his first attempt over the distance, another year of possibly taking on more 2000m races and I think he is ready to take this.
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