Quick, who won the 2011 New Zealand Oaks? tick, tock, tick, buzz. Sorry, no, Kings Rose did not win the Oaks, thanks for playing we have some lovely parting gifts for you.
If you had guessed Scarlett Lady, Shez Sensational, Postmans Daughter or any of the other leading 4YO mares we are seeing around at the moment you would still be wrong. Midnight Oil was the winner, she was followed by Zennista and Insurgent.
This is another year were we will not see the top 3YO filly win the Oaks; she won the New Zealand Derby two weeks ago. That said this field is highlighted by some absolutely top class 3YO talent. The 3YO fillies have been rocking it this year, it is an excellent crop, in my Opinion two of the most stacked 3YO races this year, other than the Derby have been the Eight Carat Classic on Boxing Day and the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. These races didn't even even feature top 3YO prospect at the beginning of the season Anabandana and the Eight Carat Classic featured Dowager Queen but she was far from her best at that point in the season.
This years Oak's field definitely looks split between the "have's" and "have not's" the top half of the book is already very accomplished and filled with genuine winning chances, the bottom half of the book features more uncertainty, but this is the Oaks, it is a huge race and anything can happen.
The Have's
Planet Rock was so impressive in the wet at Hastings, she is a prime contender in this. She is the second favourite which is confusing. Yes, prior to the run at Hastings she recorded two 4ths, but I do feel like she can be fully excused for the first one and partially excused for the second. If you throw out those races would she be favourite? My biggest concern is the change in Jockey, taking off arguably the best big race jockey in the country, that is confusing, in spite of that she may still win.
Is Artistic the filly version of Shuka? look at her 3YO season, it is very consistent, she has finished close up to some very strong competition and she is clearly in the top tier of 3YO's, but she has not really won the big one. I was not sure about her over more distance, but the win during Auckland Cup week and the Sir Tristram Fillies fifth have convinced me otherwise. Has got lucky with the draw, but possibly will face too much competition here to win.
Capital Diamond was very good last time in the Capital. Was just taken out by a flying finish by Quintessential. Zurella gave her more of the same in the Sir Tristram Fillies and Planet Rock trounced her in the Lowland Stakes. She will look to lead and barrier 1 suits this well. She is a very good filly who, with a bit of luck, may have won three starts back at Trentham and won the Sir Tristram Fillies and come into this race as favourite. As it is she is paying $10 (fixed) and $3.25 a place (fixed), can she win? absolutely, will she finish in the money? very likely. Take the $3.25 and thank me later.
Zurella, we know it needs to be dry (and it looks like it will be). We know she goes considerably better left. We know she has run 2400m reasonably well. But there is something about her which leaves me a little cold. Is she overrated? I think she might be. Clearly she is talented, but if you put a stake in the ground and called it A and another stake in the ground 6.2 lengths away and called it B you would be looking at the difference between the best 3YO filly and Zurella (over 2400m), do you think any other filly will finish in that gap in this race? I think so.
Quintessential is paying $15 and $4.75 at the moment. I am not sure what to make of this. I really put it all down to the draw. She is better than that. She finished the day after Planet Rock when third in the Lowland Stakes, but those conditions were horrible. Based on her win here in late January alone you have to consider her a contender here. As I said, I am very put off by the draw, but that is really the major doubt in my mind.
Chicharita is properly rated for this race. She is a horse who I liked for the derby when the conditions looked like they might be bad, this week with a track probably improving to good by start time I am not as confident in her ability to beat some of the other contenders here. Her worst results have come left handed, she was 6th in the Sir Tristram Fillies, every horse who beat her is in this race. Although, she did look good over 2400m as the second filly home, I cant see her improving on that Derby run.
Joy's Choice has been on the radar for a while, but really emerged in the Royal Stakes at Ellerslie, she then came very close to winning the Sunline Vase during Auckland Cup week. I definitely have her in the top half of this field and would be another who I would not be surprised to see in the finish. She is pretty well drawn, and although she was caught late over 2100m, if she can get a sweet trip and save her energy and emerge slightly later she may be able to hold on this time.
Splitsecond is probably the biggest beneficiary of Silent Achiever heading overseas, she will gain the services of James McDonald for this race as he and Roger James target a Derby/Oaks double. $9 is probably a little shorter than I would have expected, but if the Sunline Vase was 2150m she may have won that race (actually Glad probably would have won that race). She has quickly risen to this level and I think a horse like Carrick is a fair comparison, so she has to be considered, she can definitely win this, but with the level of competition $9 does not look like value, $3 a place is more realistic.
The Have Nots (or more accurately the Have Not Yet's)
Poste Restante looks comfortable racing at rating 65 level, she has stepped up recently in distance and slightly in class and been solid but unspectacular. If Angleology was a filly, where would you rate him in the field after his Derby Performance? Probably not in the top 7, right?
Savasong might still be running the Lowlands Stakes. Forgive that race because of the conditions, and look at the 1800m second at New Plymouth as a better guide. Not exactly the stiffest competition, but signs point to her finishing the 2400m well.
Melody Celebre last ran over 1200m about 6 weeks ago. She will like a bit more distance, but this is double, she has run over 1600m a couple of times without success. What is the best case for her? I really don't know. She could win this, but it would require mass scratching for unknown reasons.
Tilda was only 7.5 lengths away from Silent Achiever in the Avondale Guineas. Of course Silent Achiever walked in that race, and that put her behind 6 derby runners. She has had another lower grade start over 2100m since. She looks like she will be able to get the 2400m, but is out of her class here.
Asavant is probably the 'have not' to beat until the barrier draw. It is hard to see her figuring here. She raced in the same race at Trentham on the 28th of January as a number of these starters and finished 13th, she is probably better than that but not significantly.
Jungle Pago is consistent-ish, but hard to see her doing anything over 2400m based on the video of her last start.
Lady Plantinum has been there-or-thereabouts and getting better with distance. The set weight may actually hinder her chances. Although she is not in the class of a lot of these runners she is better than 100-1 would suggest and might be the "have not" to watch.
Manhattam Mam shouldn't be a threat in this race, it is a major step up in class.
Myminkcoat has a very cool name and has been consistent when the footing is good. She is one who should be suited to 2400m and almost closed enough to win last start over 2200m. Again 100-1 seems unfairly high, but I guess when your ceiling may be a top 6 finish it doesn't make a lot of difference.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - I can't sleep on her, she is a Group 1 winner who has returned to form.
Second - Capital Diamond - Forget the last start (it was still a Group 3 Second), but the last two before that were so close.
Third - Splitsecond - I am buying the flying finish from the Sunline Vase
Fourth - Zurella - Reluctantly, I really wanted to pick Artistic, but I know I am too hard on Zurella and she will probably outperform my expectations.
Showing posts with label Trentham. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trentham. Show all posts
Friday, 16 March 2012
Thursday, 19 January 2012
Predicting every 2012 Group 1 winner
Sorry, I have been a little quiet recently. I have basically been away since Boxing Day races (which was an awesome day by the way), and my house was broken into prior to Christmas and all three TV's in the house were stolen (which makes it difficult to comment on racing you cannot see), the last thing I wrote was not even for this site, it was for The Punters Forum. I am now back and ready to look forward to another excellent year of racing in 2012.
We are just days away from what is shaping up to be a exciting Telegraph Handicap, so I thought I would pick a winner... I decided I would also try to pick a winner for each of the remaining Group 1 races in New Zealand this season, and the ones next season until the end of 2012 (assuming the World is still here). Obviously, I don't know who will be nominated, the conditions, or what the field may look like, but it should be fun anyway (particularly fun to look back on this and see just how far away I am).
The Date:1 January 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Railway Stakes
My Prediction: Atomic Force
The Reasoning: Ok, maybe I have cheated on that one since it happened 19 days ago.
The Date:21 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Telegraph Handicap
My Prediction: Durham Town
The Reasoning: While I think this is the kind of race which could produce an unexpected winner. I like a few of the horses in this race, but I think the weight relief from the Railway will help. Guiseppina and The Hombre may struggle from their draws. Atomic Force is currently the deserved favourite. To go a bit longer in the odds I like the look of Eight Shillings if he makes the field (and I suspect he will).
The Date:28 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Thorndon Mile Handicap
My Prediction: Dating
The Reasoning: Tough race, Platinum Princess has certainly proved herself, Hold it Harvey seems to like Wellington, and I like the looks of Smoulder and Banchee also, but this looks like the kind of race which could suit Dating and she should compare well with the other contenders in terms of weight.
The Date: 11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Darci Brahma International Stakes
My Prediction: Shez Sensational
The Reasoning: Who is currently the best middle distance WFA horse in the country? After the impressive Zabeel Classic win Shez Sensational certainly has to be considered. Will Jimmy Choux be back from his lay off for this, hard to say.
The Date:11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: International Sprint
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: The defending champion. While he might be out-weighted in the Thorndon Mile and the Telegraph Handicap, WFA conditions should suit Mufhasa here. Obviously, I have no knowledge of when Jimmy Choux might return, but if he does come back for an Autumn campaign this race might be a logical starting point to build up and maybe attack the NZ stakes on Diamond Day during Auckland Cup week.
The Date:25 February 2012
The Location: Otaki
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Otaki WFA
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: Maybe he will be looking to head over to Australia for another shot at a Group 1 so who knows, but last years efforts over 1600m show he can win this type of race over 2000m.
The Date:3 March 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Derby (3YO)
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: I have not really seen a clear cut derby favourite emerge as yet, there also does not appear to be a 3YO who is so talented that they will win this despite not looking like a stayer. A horse like Duckworth Lewis might appeal, but while he is listed on the NZ Racing site he is not on the TAB. Rock'n'Pop, Planet Rock, Artistic, and Shanghai Bund all appeal, but Knight's Tour's win in the Great Northern Guineas is my pick until I get to see the Avondale Guineas and reassess the situation.
The Date:7 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 3200m
The Race: Auckland Cup
My Prediction: Scarlett Lady
The Reasoning: Whilst I enjoyed the New Zealand Cup, it is hard to say if it is a guide to anything you might expect to see here. I think the usual suspects are going to be interesting in this race. I think Scarlett Lady had the class to go well in Melbourne last spring and should be a force in this race.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Diamond Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Who is the top 2YO in the country? who will be the top 2YO in March? Who will win this race? those questions probably have three different answers. I have to go with the class 2YO at the moment, but this could be won by a horse who has not even had a start yet.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: New Zealand Stakes
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: I think he will be back, he is still the best and should win this type of race.
The Date:17 March 2012
The Location:Wellington
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Oaks (3YOF)
My Prediction: Silent Achiever
The Reasoning: I have been on this horse as an Oaks winner since I saw her run at Twlight Races, I was impressed by the flying finish again on Boxing day at Group 2 level, she then won over 2000m at that level (albeit on a rain effected track with a limited field). She is the favourite at this stage and deservedly so.
The Date:31 March 2012
The Location:Manawatu
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Manawatu Sires' Produce Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Have to keep with who looks good at this stage even though this may change by the end of March.
The Date:7 April 2012
The Location: Te Aroha
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (F&M)
My Prediction: Twlight Savings
The Reasoning: Is it just me or does something strange tend to happen in this race most years? We have such a good crop of fillies and mares around at the moment that this should be a very interesting race with a tight betting market.
The Date:14 April 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Easter Handicap
My Prediction: Vincent Street
The Reasoning: I figure a 3YO is winning an Open Group 1 this year, while it is most likely that would win a WFA race the fact that this is a handicap is not unprecedented (Time Keeper last year). It will probably be a horse who goes well on the track, a horse who can handle a wet track (we had a wet Christmas, we are probably getting a wet Easter; sorry to be pessimistic) and one who is not weighted out of it by performances in other Group 1's. Therefore Vincent Street who is currently rated 72 is my pick.
The Date:Late August
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Makfi Challenge Stakes
My Prediction: Antonio Lombardo
The Reasoning: I can't find a Group 1 this season this horse will win, I think 1400m is a strong distance for him and he was so good in the Spring last year.
The Date:September
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Windsor Park Plate
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: If Jimmy is headed for another Cox Plate attempt I can see him defending his crown in this race on his home track first.
The Date: October
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 2040m
The Race: Spring Classic
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: It is too easy to pick Jimmy Choux again, although I feel he will win this I am going to pretend he does not start this race and pick another horse.
I am going to skip making selections for the two Guineas races and the Levin Classic, who knows what the crop of 3YO's will look like by next spring?
The Date: December
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Captain Cook Stakes
My Prediction: Banchee
The Reasoning: I figure a lot of the top milers will be rested after an Aussie spring campaign. This might come down to a horse who has not won a Group One, maybe a horse who is improving to reach this level of contention, maybe even a horse who might not be proven over 1600m yet. Even looking through the list of noms for the Thorndon Mile this year it is hard to know which milers might fit this mold in 11 months time.
The Date:Boxing Day 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Zabeel Classic
My Prediction: Veyron
The Reasoning:Clearly loves Ellerslie, he held up well in this race last year despite it been his first attempt over the distance, another year of possibly taking on more 2000m races and I think he is ready to take this.
We are just days away from what is shaping up to be a exciting Telegraph Handicap, so I thought I would pick a winner... I decided I would also try to pick a winner for each of the remaining Group 1 races in New Zealand this season, and the ones next season until the end of 2012 (assuming the World is still here). Obviously, I don't know who will be nominated, the conditions, or what the field may look like, but it should be fun anyway (particularly fun to look back on this and see just how far away I am).
The Date:1 January 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Railway Stakes
My Prediction: Atomic Force
The Reasoning: Ok, maybe I have cheated on that one since it happened 19 days ago.
The Date:21 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Telegraph Handicap
My Prediction: Durham Town
The Reasoning: While I think this is the kind of race which could produce an unexpected winner. I like a few of the horses in this race, but I think the weight relief from the Railway will help. Guiseppina and The Hombre may struggle from their draws. Atomic Force is currently the deserved favourite. To go a bit longer in the odds I like the look of Eight Shillings if he makes the field (and I suspect he will).
The Date:28 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Thorndon Mile Handicap
My Prediction: Dating
The Reasoning: Tough race, Platinum Princess has certainly proved herself, Hold it Harvey seems to like Wellington, and I like the looks of Smoulder and Banchee also, but this looks like the kind of race which could suit Dating and she should compare well with the other contenders in terms of weight.
The Date: 11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Darci Brahma International Stakes
My Prediction: Shez Sensational
The Reasoning: Who is currently the best middle distance WFA horse in the country? After the impressive Zabeel Classic win Shez Sensational certainly has to be considered. Will Jimmy Choux be back from his lay off for this, hard to say.
The Date:11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: International Sprint
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: The defending champion. While he might be out-weighted in the Thorndon Mile and the Telegraph Handicap, WFA conditions should suit Mufhasa here. Obviously, I have no knowledge of when Jimmy Choux might return, but if he does come back for an Autumn campaign this race might be a logical starting point to build up and maybe attack the NZ stakes on Diamond Day during Auckland Cup week.
The Date:25 February 2012
The Location: Otaki
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Otaki WFA
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: Maybe he will be looking to head over to Australia for another shot at a Group 1 so who knows, but last years efforts over 1600m show he can win this type of race over 2000m.
The Date:3 March 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Derby (3YO)
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: I have not really seen a clear cut derby favourite emerge as yet, there also does not appear to be a 3YO who is so talented that they will win this despite not looking like a stayer. A horse like Duckworth Lewis might appeal, but while he is listed on the NZ Racing site he is not on the TAB. Rock'n'Pop, Planet Rock, Artistic, and Shanghai Bund all appeal, but Knight's Tour's win in the Great Northern Guineas is my pick until I get to see the Avondale Guineas and reassess the situation.
The Date:7 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 3200m
The Race: Auckland Cup
My Prediction: Scarlett Lady
The Reasoning: Whilst I enjoyed the New Zealand Cup, it is hard to say if it is a guide to anything you might expect to see here. I think the usual suspects are going to be interesting in this race. I think Scarlett Lady had the class to go well in Melbourne last spring and should be a force in this race.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Diamond Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Who is the top 2YO in the country? who will be the top 2YO in March? Who will win this race? those questions probably have three different answers. I have to go with the class 2YO at the moment, but this could be won by a horse who has not even had a start yet.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: New Zealand Stakes
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: I think he will be back, he is still the best and should win this type of race.
The Date:17 March 2012
The Location:Wellington
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Oaks (3YOF)
My Prediction: Silent Achiever
The Reasoning: I have been on this horse as an Oaks winner since I saw her run at Twlight Races, I was impressed by the flying finish again on Boxing day at Group 2 level, she then won over 2000m at that level (albeit on a rain effected track with a limited field). She is the favourite at this stage and deservedly so.
The Date:31 March 2012
The Location:Manawatu
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Manawatu Sires' Produce Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Have to keep with who looks good at this stage even though this may change by the end of March.
The Date:7 April 2012
The Location: Te Aroha
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (F&M)
My Prediction: Twlight Savings
The Reasoning: Is it just me or does something strange tend to happen in this race most years? We have such a good crop of fillies and mares around at the moment that this should be a very interesting race with a tight betting market.
The Date:14 April 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Easter Handicap
My Prediction: Vincent Street
The Reasoning: I figure a 3YO is winning an Open Group 1 this year, while it is most likely that would win a WFA race the fact that this is a handicap is not unprecedented (Time Keeper last year). It will probably be a horse who goes well on the track, a horse who can handle a wet track (we had a wet Christmas, we are probably getting a wet Easter; sorry to be pessimistic) and one who is not weighted out of it by performances in other Group 1's. Therefore Vincent Street who is currently rated 72 is my pick.
The Date:Late August
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Makfi Challenge Stakes
My Prediction: Antonio Lombardo
The Reasoning: I can't find a Group 1 this season this horse will win, I think 1400m is a strong distance for him and he was so good in the Spring last year.
The Date:September
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Windsor Park Plate
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: If Jimmy is headed for another Cox Plate attempt I can see him defending his crown in this race on his home track first.
The Date: October
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 2040m
The Race: Spring Classic
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: It is too easy to pick Jimmy Choux again, although I feel he will win this I am going to pretend he does not start this race and pick another horse.
I am going to skip making selections for the two Guineas races and the Levin Classic, who knows what the crop of 3YO's will look like by next spring?
The Date: December
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Captain Cook Stakes
My Prediction: Banchee
The Reasoning: I figure a lot of the top milers will be rested after an Aussie spring campaign. This might come down to a horse who has not won a Group One, maybe a horse who is improving to reach this level of contention, maybe even a horse who might not be proven over 1600m yet. Even looking through the list of noms for the Thorndon Mile this year it is hard to know which milers might fit this mold in 11 months time.
The Date:Boxing Day 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Zabeel Classic
My Prediction: Veyron
The Reasoning:Clearly loves Ellerslie, he held up well in this race last year despite it been his first attempt over the distance, another year of possibly taking on more 2000m races and I think he is ready to take this.
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