Wow, the first Group 1 of the Season, does this feel early to you? where has the winter gone. September 1 is actually slightly later than it has been over the past few years, last time the race was in the month of September was back in 2007 when Seachange won the second of her two back-to-back Mudgway's (as it was then known), can Mufhasa defend his title 5 years to the day?
There are a lot of unknowns at this point in the season, who will come back strong from a winter off? who will continue their winter form into this higher level of racing? which 4 year old is going to step up and build on their 3YO form? and are we going to see the same old vintage Mufhasa? if we are this race may already be over. Looking at the odds on offer $4.40, the TAB is unsure what to expect. They are almost as uncertain as the rain forecast over these next few days.
This race has been won by fairly favoured runners over the past handful of years, the only blowout winner was Tavistock in 2009 at over $40, the only other double digit winner since the Seachange's first win in 2006 was Keep The Peace, she was probably better than that and went on to win other Group 1's, so I think it was worth keeping the favourites pretty safe.
#1 Mufhasa (5)
He is now age 8 and will be having his 51st start, I don't think we need to spend a lot of time going into his vast and impressive resume. I think you could easily argue that not only was Mufhasa the New Zealand horse of the year for the 2011/12 year, but that it was the finest year of his career. He has been so good and consistent since this race last year that I don't even know where you would start to search for a reason not to include him.
#2 Justanexcuse (6)
Seemed to tire over the second half of his campaign last year. Has been back for one start and should be better for it, he has a pretty good 2nd up record. Wins last year did not really come against this level of competition but all came at this distance and two at or above 59kg. Hard to include, but possibly a bit of value at $26 currently.
#3 Fritzy Boy (13)
The second former winner of this race in the field. He was off for almost a year when he returned strongly at Waikato recently. I thought that run showed some heart, and he may find himself in a similar position from a wide barrier this week. He always seems to go well in this set of races, 5th last year in this race. He will also go well with a bit of rain. Not a lot of recent form to go on, but if you consider a $15 winner to be an upset he might be the best chance of an upset in this race, except...
#4 Green Supreme (3)
... is paying the same as Fritzy Boy at this point.
There was a lot to like about the season of Green Supreme last year, he effectively returned from overseas racing in 2010 at rating 70 and by the end of the year was racing at Group 1 Level with a rating around 100.
I am still not sure what this horse is, forget the Wellington Cup start, will we see him work his way up to that distance this year? the win over 1400m at Awapuni was great, the finish in the Easter was strong. He will likely start slowly from barrier 3 and sprint for home. He won twice on a slow track last year so I am not sure what the concern is.
#5 I am Sam (2)
Could be a real opportunist here with wet weather. He has had strong winter form and performs best over 1400m. This class is a big test, and I am not sure it is one he is capable of passing, but maybe one to include in multiples if it is very wet.
#6 The Hombre (8)
He was very competitive last year, including a narrow loss at Group 1 victory. He has had one run back, he was not as strong as we have come to expect first up, I am happy to put that down to the track and give him another chance 2nd up, where he has been consistently strong. This is a test, but 1400m at Hawkes Bay suits the John Bary trained runner, if the rain stays away I am sure you will see him shorter than the $26 currently on offer.
#7 He's Remarkable (17)
Another to win a Group 1 in Australia last year. What? oh, that's right, shhhh.
His Autumn in Sydney was not as successful as his Spring in Aussie, but he is definitely capable in this class. He won on this track last year before leaving for Melbourne and will be looking to do the same this year. He is far less remarkable in the wet, but not terrible. He suffered from a string of wide draws at age 3 but was lucky last year in that area, barrier 17 could prove difficult.
#8 Time Keeper (12)
He is usually pretty consistent. He is a Group 1 Winner, but that was carrying very little at handicap conditions.He should be fit for running through the winter, all of his wins have come after ten starts other than his one this campaign. His best results have been on good tracks, but I would expect to see him race in any conditions. This might be a big ask for Sir Slick 2.0.
#9 Khemosabi (14)
Solid throughout the winter, but this is much harder. Will be racing at his favoured distance, and will be hoping for rain. Has risen through the ranks but WFA conditions rule him out this time.
#10 Ocean Park (4)
Despite the wraps on him prior to pulling out of the derby last year, and the strong performance in his Guineas second place at Rosehill I am still not sure what to make of the second favourite.
What can we say from his record? He is consistent, he has never won (or started) at 1400m, his one start on a slow track was not his best (albeit against very tough competition), he is drawn well (but hasn't really made the most of strong draws in the past, generally still overpowering fields). The main question is really around the 1400m, is this what he is aiming for, or will be be better with a couple of starts over more distance? He is talented and you have to give him a chance, maybe the domination of the Wellington Stakes is the race to go back and watch, but this is tougher and I am not sure I would take him at $4.60, but I certainly don't have the guts to leave him off the podium.
#11 Fleur de Lune (1)
Might she have finally found the form to get that Group 1 victory? four Group1 placings, including 3rd in this race last year. 1400m is ideal and she could have possibly improved from the Foxbridge run. It is hard to question her on any surface. Considering the runners between her and Mufhasa in 5 she should get a very sweet trip in behind a likely leader. If I had major concerns over Mufhasa this is where I would be looking.
#12 Guiseppina (17)
She had a great year last year, and will look to build on that this year. Always solid first up but usually better second up, she will need good ground to show her best. She is good under WFA conditions and will probably be running home well, she won a Group 1 last year from barrier 18, so don't rule her out on the draw.
#13 Art Beat (10)
Has to be considered on a wet track, but will the track improve too much and hurt her chances. I always liked this runner and she is coming off the biggest win of her career. She has had more success under handicap conditions and this just looks too tough.
#14 No Excuse Maggie (15)
Another local, who enjoys this distance and would be a chance if the track remains moist. She does tend to win after a few runs as evidenced by her performance last start at Otaki. She has not been as strong in conditions with a set weight. Her one Group 1 outing last year was solid, but there is a difference in class. The draw is not really a concern, she should be handy and able to get across relatively easy on Saturday.
#15 Innovation (18)
Rose quickly through the grades with good success over the winter, but didn't really match it with the classier 3YO's early in that year. None of those wins are really comparable to this race and the impressive winter cup was still under handicap conditions. She will be better off than some as a 4YO mare at 56.5kg, and another who is more likeable if the track remains slow, but there are others I prefer more...
#16 Xanadu (10)
... such as another 4YO mare, one which should be far more preferred. A heap of merit from the run in the Waikato, although she had won on a slow track she looked to get through that ground very nicely. 200m further will suit. A Group 1 3rd only four months ago, but she will carry an extra 2kg as a 4YO Saturday. She was great early at age 3 and could go well to start off her 4YO campaign.
#17 Baby Guinness (9)
She is a possible starter. I just wanted to quickly comment that I thought the run in the tron was actually pretty good, she looked to run on well into 5th then fade over the last 50m. That was the first start since the summer and she probably needed it after over-racing throughout. I don't think she is up to this class, but she is a solid performer who might be interesting in multiples.
The Picks
Winner: Mufhasa - If this race was run in April he would have been the clear favourite, I don't really see what has changed.
Second: Fleur de Lune - I actually like her for second, but I am worried about
the FdL tax, this little known rule of nature which states she must never
quite live up to expectations.
Third: Ocean Park - I really don't know, I don't think he is as good as Jimmy Choux was coming into this last year, and feel like 1600m will be better, but he is hard to leave out.
Fourth: The Hombre - I went back and forth with He's Remarkable and Green Supreme for this spot. I think the track will improve, but maybe not quite enough for the other two.
