This is the time of year when the 2YO's start racing for big stakes, taking on black type races and approaching that first of two Group One races in New Zealand for 2YO's. A lot has taken place on the track since my first edition of 2YO Power Rankings which was just after the Karaka Million.
The other significant change was off the track when the connections of Ockham's Razor decided to leave their colt in New Zealand to take on Group 1 races. It is significant because after winning the Karaka Million he clearly would have been number 1 on the first list. He was subsequently beaten by Choice Bro who was seventh on the initial list.
Without further ado, on to this weeks list
Dropped from Rankings: Hazel (6), Mai Guru (8), Hogwarts Express (9)
Honourable Mention: Hazel (hardest omission), Mai Guru, Hogwarts Express, Oasis Rose, Croatia (so impressive coming home), Lumiere Blue, Liberating
(10) Seleno (N/A) - Amazing finish at New Plymouth and was a very narrow third.Was racing consistently prior to Christmas. One to watch, particularly as the 2YO races increase to 1400m in distance.
(9) Travino (1) - He didn't seem to have the form he showed prior to Christmas. I would be willing to give him another chance as he was so strong early on in the season.
(8) Rollout the Carpet (N/A) - Looked a potential riser with the Matamata victory. Was handy and ran home well. Back to back wins, will be interesting to see how high she continues climb.
(7) Silk Pins (2) - Pretty good third on the weekend. The race was probably not as strong as the Karaka Million but she seemed to run home nicely once she got going. This is a big drop but it is a reflection of other performances.
(6) Irish Rebel (5) - Was chasing down Magic Shaft on the weekend in a strong race. I thought it was an interesting run in Matamata. He raced wide and uncovered early and was towards the back of the pack. Having been to that race day in the past I know they get a big crowd, the crowd stretches down the side of the track, as Irish Rebel rounded the turn and down the straight he kept looking to the right (the crowd side), I am wondering if he was unsettled or distracted? It might be interesting to see him in blinkers. Either way he finished off strongly which is testament to his natural ability.
(5) Pussy Willow (4) - Hasn't raced since the last rankings, continues to look like a very strong 2YO contender.
(4) Warhorse (3) - Hasn't raced since the Karaka Million, he remains one of the top 2YO's in the country.
(3) Magic Shaft (10) - He beat a very good field in Matamata and was convincing. He looked to have that won well before the turn and really took off and sprinted for home in a well judged Michael Coleman ride.
(2) Choice Bro (7) - The natural second, a big win at Taranaki at Group 3 level, beating Ockham's Razor. He looked great winning too, finished off strongly, not sure if he will run in the Diamond Stakes the Manawatu Sires Produce or both, but I can imagine he will go very well over the 1400m on offer in the latter.
(1) Ockham's Razor (N/A) - He still deserves to be here, but will probably need to produce at Group 1 level to remain here. He was beaten by Choice Bro at Taranaki with a brilliant run from Choice Bro, however Ockham's Razor was all over the place and still almost won. It is hard to know what might have happened had he run straight and balanced over the last 400m, he seemed to interfere with other horses who may or may not have beaten him, but the balanced finish he produced with Craig Williams riding on Karaka Million night would have probably won that race.
Tuesday 28 February 2012
Monday 27 February 2012
20 Things to look forward to during Auckland Cup Week
Auckland Cup Week is nearly upon us, it will be an excellent week to celebration New Zealand Racing, although I will no doubt look more closely at some of the feature races as we get closer to the main event, here are a list of things you can look forward to during Auckland Cup Week at Ellerslie.
1. Infield Partying
There are really only a couple of race days a year where the track is packed to the point the infield is used, Saturday the 3rd of March (TV3 Derby Day) will be one of them. I recall last year cramming under a makeshift shelter in the infield with about a dozen friends only coming out to brave the conditions to restock alcohol, place bets and watch races, but it was great fun, very memorable. I eventually made a run to the grandstand to watch Jimmy Choux do his thing, but the party atmosphere in the infield is always a great time. Boxing Day 2011 had one of the biggest crowds I can remember seeing at Ellerslie, the infield was packed and people were having a great time. Ellerslie does a great job of putting on peripheral entertainment, this year featuring Kimbra, I have no idea who that is, but they sure seem to be pushing it.
2. James McDonald
Last year Opie Bosson had an amazing Auckland Cup Carnival, he rode Titch, The Party Stand, and Anabandana to victories in the Auckland Cup, New Zealand Stakes, and the Diamond Stakes taking out three of the four Group 1 races during Auckland Cup week. That seemed an amazing feat, well this year James McDonald has a chance to replicate that feat as pointed out in the Waikato Times. Can he do it will be a sub-story of Cup week, Silent Achiever is currently Derby favorite, Shez Sensational is looking very good for the Cup. The article talks about Scarlett Lady, and if that is favoured in the New Zealand Stakes, however it looks like it has been withdrawn from nominations (at least they are not listed in on the NZRacing Website), if that is the case you might assume she will be in Australia. The question remains, who will he ride in the remaining Group 1, he rode Choice Bro before Matthew Cameron rode him to victory in Taranaki, he rode Silk Pins in its last start before the Karaka Million, he has ridden Deakes and Toaist Master who are potential nominees. I have no idea who is likely to be in this race, or who he is likely to ride, however looking at some of the potential names you have to figure he is a good chance in that Group 1. Assuming Shez Sensational opts for the Cup and Scarlett Lady is not in the NZ Stakes, James McDonald will no doubt get a ride in this race, however looking at recent 2000m WFA races it is harder to see a likely favourite he might ride, so this may be the one which gets away, either way a possible Mcdonald-Sweep is something to look out for during Cup week.
3. The Nathan's Memorial
As discussed last week two of the last three Auckland Cup winners have come second in this race on Derby Day. This seemingly typical 2200m event will likely feature horses racing as a lead up for the cup against others who simply see it as a good value Open Handicap event.
4. New Zealand's Top Horses
Take away the 4 Group 1's and the handful of other races at listed level and above, the fields are stacked throughout the week, even the midweek meeting. Last year Veyron won a 1200m rating 90, he is now a three time Group 1 winner. High stakes are on offer all week which brings in the top horses from around the country.
5. The Telecom New Zealand Derby on TV3 Derby Day
A major feature of Auckland Cup week, and this year promises a number of contenders who all have their merits. Silent Achiever is the favourite, but there is a lot to like about Ocean Park, Zurella and Rock'n'Pop who I can see potentially taking it out. Shuka you would think would need some luck, and Travolta and Carick looked good in the Avondale Guineas. Don't sleep on any of the longer shots they have tended to feature in recent years, it is the Derby, anything can happen.
6. Something for everyone
Looking back at last year, over the 30 races there were essentially an even number from 1200m, 1400m, 1600m, and 21/2200m, as well as races over 1100m, 2000m, 2400m and 3200m. Again an even number of the maiden's, Rating 70, 80, 90 and Open level races, four races for 3YO's a couple for 2YO's and Fillies and Mares. Whatever you are into there is something for you, it also gives trainers and connections opportunity to find the right race for their horse to compete which should increase the racing excitement.
7. Sunline Vase You don't want to sleep on this potentially explosive event. It is a listed race for the 3YO Fillies over 2100m, but there should be some real talent on display. Look back at the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic a couple of weeks ago, some of those contenders will be on display in the derby, but it is evident that we have a talented group of 3YO fillies, many of these will be taking on this event before the Oaks in a couple of weeks, this is a race to keep an eye on.
8. A major Citywide event
There is certainly a buzz around Auckland leading up to derby day. Not a crazy buzz, this is not an All Black's game, but people are definitely aware it is on, there will be a significant turn out all three days. Auckland Racing Club does a good job promoting this event and making people aware of how fun a day at the races can be.
9. TV3's new Sponsorship
Telecom is a great Derby Sponsor, TV3 certainly has great potential to bring additional life to the event. I can imagine their sponsorship should see more coverage of races outside of the Trackside channels. I thought Sky TV did a great job on Karaka Million night, and although I will be at Ellerslie on Derby Day it will be interesting to see what TV3 can do showing off the sights and sounds.
10. A 3200m Group 1
A very unique event, yes it is annual, but still not a lot of these major staying tests in the country, this year's field is starting to look like it is a very solid one. The Stella Artois Auckland Cup is a race which dates back until 1874 (at least if Wikipedia is to be believed). It is really the great unknown, many of the runners who accept wont have started a race over 2400m, it will a great test of stamina, a big field will line up which will make it s tactical challenge, and a stunning sight for the spectators, there will be questions on every runner as they enter the parade ring, there will be no certainties. Look at the Current favourites, Shez Sensational, Booming, Single Minded, Titch and Six O'Clock News, some questions include distance, weight, distance, form, and consistency amongst others. The winner will see it as an opportunity to look at other Cup races in the future as well as adding a/another Group 1 to their resume.
11. An office sweepstake opportunity
Do you really need an excuse? if it is good for the Melbourne Cup why not the Auckland Cup, it is on in a lot of pubs, get the team together, set up a sweep, drink beers, have fun, it is a simple recipe.If you are the person in your office who is into racing, take charge, set it up.
12. Diamond Day Whip'n'Spurs
If you have not yet experienced a Whips'n'Spurs party you should make this the one. They are a great event, relatively cheap, filled with people all dressed up, you get a great view of the track, and can party all night. You can get your tickets here.
13. Fashion and Stuff
It is not what brings me to the races, but it does tend to attract a lot of Women, and that is never a bad thing. Whenever I can get a good group together to attend these major race days I get to witness how much time an energy females put into wardrobe, hair, makeup, accessories. They go crazy for this stuff and despite the frustration which accompanies making five outfit changes in a morning before the races they clearly enjoy it. I am not in a position to mock, I spend multiple hours studying form in the week leading up to the races and typically get less out of it. The best bit, have you see a woman try to walk in high heels after three bottles of bubbly in 25+ degree temperatures, it is fun for the whole family.
14. New Zealand Stakes
What do you expect? Shez Sensational has won two Group 1 WFA races over 2000m this season, but take her out of it and this will be a wide open race. Look at the results we have seen this year in the Windsor Park Plate, the Spring Classic, the Captian Cook Stakes, the Zabeel Classic, the Darci Brahma International, and most recently the Otaki Group 1. We wont see Mufhasa, we most likely wont see Shez Sensational or Jimmy Choux, but you can see the quality these races are attracting and the mixed variety of results behind the winners. Veyron's plans are not certain, but given how well he went over 2000m on Boxing day, his love of Auckland and the form he is in, it could be an interesting race.
15. Changing the colours of the Jockey statue
Will we be seeing Titch's colours adorn the Jockey statue for another year? It is a quirky but awesome tradition at Ellerslie (and many other tracks), the winner of the Auckland Cup will have their colours painted on the statue in the back parade ring for the next year.
16. It is happening all over town
I don't want to get to carried away talking about the other codes, but Auckland Cup is not all about the Thoroughbred's. It is happening at Alexandra Park too, they actually kick it off this Friday night with their Oaks followed by their Derby/Cup night the following week, the details are here. If you are into the dag's (you like dag's?), they have their cup too, next Thursday night, details here.
17. Diamond Stakes
The first Group 1 for the Two Year Olds this season. It is shaping up like an outstanding one. The Two year olds have been going at each other this year, contenders are stepping up and then getting knocked down, it is fascinating stuff. I have no idea what to expect from this year group, it is not like there is a dominant Anabandana this year.
18. Enjoy a day in a beautiful park
Ellerslie is stunning, I was out there the other week for the Avondale Guineas day and the course and grounds are looking in excellent condition. You can essentially boil the day down to a picnic in the park, only with 20,000 other people. Even without the added entertainment, it is almost worth the price of admission just to enjoy the surroundings.
19. Midweek Racing of consequence
Having significant racing during the middle of the week is great. The Cup is at the perfect time to knock off work and head down to the pub, or if you are in the Auckland area just take the day off, a lot of other people will be. Better yet, arrange a 'team building' exercise and get paid to go to the races.
20. Leading international Jockeys
Craig Williams recently won the Karaka Million on Ockham's Razor, it is just another example of the success that international Jockey's have had when they venture to our shores. Cup week last year we saw wins from Jim Byrne, Douglas Whyte, Shane Scriven, other internationals Glenn Boss and Craig Williams riding here not to mention other Jockeys who were based in New Zealand who won that week like Mark Du Plessis, Jason Collett, Opie Bosson who are either overseas now or were at some point in the past 12 months riding. The prize money is not quite what is was last year, but there is still potential to see some internationals making the trip to New Zealand.
1. Infield Partying
There are really only a couple of race days a year where the track is packed to the point the infield is used, Saturday the 3rd of March (TV3 Derby Day) will be one of them. I recall last year cramming under a makeshift shelter in the infield with about a dozen friends only coming out to brave the conditions to restock alcohol, place bets and watch races, but it was great fun, very memorable. I eventually made a run to the grandstand to watch Jimmy Choux do his thing, but the party atmosphere in the infield is always a great time. Boxing Day 2011 had one of the biggest crowds I can remember seeing at Ellerslie, the infield was packed and people were having a great time. Ellerslie does a great job of putting on peripheral entertainment, this year featuring Kimbra, I have no idea who that is, but they sure seem to be pushing it.
2. James McDonald
Last year Opie Bosson had an amazing Auckland Cup Carnival, he rode Titch, The Party Stand, and Anabandana to victories in the Auckland Cup, New Zealand Stakes, and the Diamond Stakes taking out three of the four Group 1 races during Auckland Cup week. That seemed an amazing feat, well this year James McDonald has a chance to replicate that feat as pointed out in the Waikato Times. Can he do it will be a sub-story of Cup week, Silent Achiever is currently Derby favorite, Shez Sensational is looking very good for the Cup. The article talks about Scarlett Lady, and if that is favoured in the New Zealand Stakes, however it looks like it has been withdrawn from nominations (at least they are not listed in on the NZRacing Website), if that is the case you might assume she will be in Australia. The question remains, who will he ride in the remaining Group 1, he rode Choice Bro before Matthew Cameron rode him to victory in Taranaki, he rode Silk Pins in its last start before the Karaka Million, he has ridden Deakes and Toaist Master who are potential nominees. I have no idea who is likely to be in this race, or who he is likely to ride, however looking at some of the potential names you have to figure he is a good chance in that Group 1. Assuming Shez Sensational opts for the Cup and Scarlett Lady is not in the NZ Stakes, James McDonald will no doubt get a ride in this race, however looking at recent 2000m WFA races it is harder to see a likely favourite he might ride, so this may be the one which gets away, either way a possible Mcdonald-Sweep is something to look out for during Cup week.
3. The Nathan's Memorial
As discussed last week two of the last three Auckland Cup winners have come second in this race on Derby Day. This seemingly typical 2200m event will likely feature horses racing as a lead up for the cup against others who simply see it as a good value Open Handicap event.
4. New Zealand's Top Horses
Take away the 4 Group 1's and the handful of other races at listed level and above, the fields are stacked throughout the week, even the midweek meeting. Last year Veyron won a 1200m rating 90, he is now a three time Group 1 winner. High stakes are on offer all week which brings in the top horses from around the country.
5. The Telecom New Zealand Derby on TV3 Derby Day
A major feature of Auckland Cup week, and this year promises a number of contenders who all have their merits. Silent Achiever is the favourite, but there is a lot to like about Ocean Park, Zurella and Rock'n'Pop who I can see potentially taking it out. Shuka you would think would need some luck, and Travolta and Carick looked good in the Avondale Guineas. Don't sleep on any of the longer shots they have tended to feature in recent years, it is the Derby, anything can happen.
6. Something for everyone
Looking back at last year, over the 30 races there were essentially an even number from 1200m, 1400m, 1600m, and 21/2200m, as well as races over 1100m, 2000m, 2400m and 3200m. Again an even number of the maiden's, Rating 70, 80, 90 and Open level races, four races for 3YO's a couple for 2YO's and Fillies and Mares. Whatever you are into there is something for you, it also gives trainers and connections opportunity to find the right race for their horse to compete which should increase the racing excitement.
7. Sunline Vase You don't want to sleep on this potentially explosive event. It is a listed race for the 3YO Fillies over 2100m, but there should be some real talent on display. Look back at the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic a couple of weeks ago, some of those contenders will be on display in the derby, but it is evident that we have a talented group of 3YO fillies, many of these will be taking on this event before the Oaks in a couple of weeks, this is a race to keep an eye on.
8. A major Citywide event
There is certainly a buzz around Auckland leading up to derby day. Not a crazy buzz, this is not an All Black's game, but people are definitely aware it is on, there will be a significant turn out all three days. Auckland Racing Club does a good job promoting this event and making people aware of how fun a day at the races can be.
9. TV3's new Sponsorship
Telecom is a great Derby Sponsor, TV3 certainly has great potential to bring additional life to the event. I can imagine their sponsorship should see more coverage of races outside of the Trackside channels. I thought Sky TV did a great job on Karaka Million night, and although I will be at Ellerslie on Derby Day it will be interesting to see what TV3 can do showing off the sights and sounds.
10. A 3200m Group 1
A very unique event, yes it is annual, but still not a lot of these major staying tests in the country, this year's field is starting to look like it is a very solid one. The Stella Artois Auckland Cup is a race which dates back until 1874 (at least if Wikipedia is to be believed). It is really the great unknown, many of the runners who accept wont have started a race over 2400m, it will a great test of stamina, a big field will line up which will make it s tactical challenge, and a stunning sight for the spectators, there will be questions on every runner as they enter the parade ring, there will be no certainties. Look at the Current favourites, Shez Sensational, Booming, Single Minded, Titch and Six O'Clock News, some questions include distance, weight, distance, form, and consistency amongst others. The winner will see it as an opportunity to look at other Cup races in the future as well as adding a/another Group 1 to their resume.
11. An office sweepstake opportunity
Do you really need an excuse? if it is good for the Melbourne Cup why not the Auckland Cup, it is on in a lot of pubs, get the team together, set up a sweep, drink beers, have fun, it is a simple recipe.If you are the person in your office who is into racing, take charge, set it up.
12. Diamond Day Whip'n'Spurs
If you have not yet experienced a Whips'n'Spurs party you should make this the one. They are a great event, relatively cheap, filled with people all dressed up, you get a great view of the track, and can party all night. You can get your tickets here.
13. Fashion and Stuff
It is not what brings me to the races, but it does tend to attract a lot of Women, and that is never a bad thing. Whenever I can get a good group together to attend these major race days I get to witness how much time an energy females put into wardrobe, hair, makeup, accessories. They go crazy for this stuff and despite the frustration which accompanies making five outfit changes in a morning before the races they clearly enjoy it. I am not in a position to mock, I spend multiple hours studying form in the week leading up to the races and typically get less out of it. The best bit, have you see a woman try to walk in high heels after three bottles of bubbly in 25+ degree temperatures, it is fun for the whole family.
14. New Zealand Stakes
What do you expect? Shez Sensational has won two Group 1 WFA races over 2000m this season, but take her out of it and this will be a wide open race. Look at the results we have seen this year in the Windsor Park Plate, the Spring Classic, the Captian Cook Stakes, the Zabeel Classic, the Darci Brahma International, and most recently the Otaki Group 1. We wont see Mufhasa, we most likely wont see Shez Sensational or Jimmy Choux, but you can see the quality these races are attracting and the mixed variety of results behind the winners. Veyron's plans are not certain, but given how well he went over 2000m on Boxing day, his love of Auckland and the form he is in, it could be an interesting race.
15. Changing the colours of the Jockey statue
Will we be seeing Titch's colours adorn the Jockey statue for another year? It is a quirky but awesome tradition at Ellerslie (and many other tracks), the winner of the Auckland Cup will have their colours painted on the statue in the back parade ring for the next year.
16. It is happening all over town
I don't want to get to carried away talking about the other codes, but Auckland Cup is not all about the Thoroughbred's. It is happening at Alexandra Park too, they actually kick it off this Friday night with their Oaks followed by their Derby/Cup night the following week, the details are here. If you are into the dag's (you like dag's?), they have their cup too, next Thursday night, details here.
17. Diamond Stakes
The first Group 1 for the Two Year Olds this season. It is shaping up like an outstanding one. The Two year olds have been going at each other this year, contenders are stepping up and then getting knocked down, it is fascinating stuff. I have no idea what to expect from this year group, it is not like there is a dominant Anabandana this year.
18. Enjoy a day in a beautiful park
Ellerslie is stunning, I was out there the other week for the Avondale Guineas day and the course and grounds are looking in excellent condition. You can essentially boil the day down to a picnic in the park, only with 20,000 other people. Even without the added entertainment, it is almost worth the price of admission just to enjoy the surroundings.
19. Midweek Racing of consequence
Having significant racing during the middle of the week is great. The Cup is at the perfect time to knock off work and head down to the pub, or if you are in the Auckland area just take the day off, a lot of other people will be. Better yet, arrange a 'team building' exercise and get paid to go to the races.
20. Leading international Jockeys
Craig Williams recently won the Karaka Million on Ockham's Razor, it is just another example of the success that international Jockey's have had when they venture to our shores. Cup week last year we saw wins from Jim Byrne, Douglas Whyte, Shane Scriven, other internationals Glenn Boss and Craig Williams riding here not to mention other Jockeys who were based in New Zealand who won that week like Mark Du Plessis, Jason Collett, Opie Bosson who are either overseas now or were at some point in the past 12 months riding. The prize money is not quite what is was last year, but there is still potential to see some internationals making the trip to New Zealand.
Thursday 23 February 2012
The changing face of New Zealand Group One Races
For a time the Haunui Farm Group One Classic was looking like a rematch between Mufhasa, Veyron with Guiseppina in the mix. Now Mufhasa is off seeking his second Australian Group 1 of the season, in a race worth half a million Australian dollars. At some point it looked like he would be challenging the field for second with Black Caviar in that race, but it was a wise placement by Stephen McKee and Mufhasa's connections because realistically it was unlikely we would see Black Caviar run three weeks in a row, which seems a factor in the quality field the Futurity Stakes attracted.
The Otaki Group 1 really feels like the black sheep of New Zealand Group Ones, it just seems like a weird time and place amongst landscape of large race days and other Group 1's, aside from the $200,000 Group 1, the remaining races on this day are worth between $8,000 and $12,000. On first glance the field this attracted was maybe not what you might expect from a Group One either. This field contains four Group 1 winners, but it appears Vosne Romanee's best days have past, and Eagle Mountain is an unknown quantity.
When I looked again at this field in more detail this race may represent the changing face of New Zealand Group One races. Vosne Romanee, Vonsuti, Mufhasa, Hold It Harvey, Sir Slick, Six O'Clock News, Booming and two a lesser extent Wall Street (who is now racing in Australia), that is essentially the field for most Weight For Age Group 1 races over for the past couple of years. Yes, Mufhasa is still dominant, Six O'Clock News has maybe recaptured form, Booming was twice a Group 1 winner last year is still looking a possible Auckland Cup winner. These horses are not completely past it, but the point is that we have all seen these races before.
Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational have each won two Group One races this season at age four. This race contains Four Year Old mares Postman's Daughter (already a Group 2 winner and Group 1 place getter), Lady Kipling (Group 1 placed at age three and 4th in a Group 1 age four). As well as Five Year Old Group 1 Winning mare Guiseppina. This race contains Veyron (now a two time Group 1 winner) only age six, as well as promising five year old The Hombre who has won in Australia and placed at Group 1 level in New Zealand this year. This race also contains 4YO's Sadist and Jaggard who have question marks around the WFA races, but no question have talent and the potential to be running at this level. There have also been other recent runners at age four or five stepping up to Group 1 level and showing potential.
The question I am asking, is this race an example of the future of Group 1 racing in New Zealand? (for the next couple of years at least) Well, it is hard to say, certainly you would think Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational will continue to travel to Australia to compete. The problem with the mares like Guiseppina is that her connections will likely only continue to race her so long as they are winning more prize money than her progeny is likely to sell for, and they are not risking serious injury. Look at Barinka last year, solid career, finally got that Group 1, maybe didn't look like winning many more big races, suffered a bit of an injury, then retired. Another example is Veloce Bella who won the 2010 Darci Brahma International Stakes and by the time the 2011 version of that race came around she was in foal. I am sure there are countless other examples, but the landscape of these races can quickly change when it comes to the potential for a career after racing. That is why the nine horses I listed as an example of our recent Group 1 runners are all Geldings.
It is impossible to know how many more times the runners in the Haunui Farm Group 1 Classic will go on to compete against each other at this level because of some of the reasons listed above, but it is clear that I might have dismissed this field a bit too quickly because it does look like this field may contain some of the next generation of Group 1 competitors, and it is certainly evidence that we are in for an exciting group of emerging Group 1 contenders over the next couple of years.
How is this race going to play out? Here are some of my main talking points
I really think this race comes down to Eagle Mountain, certainly two years ago if he was running in this race he would have been considered favourite. At $7.50 on fixed odds it is clear that even bookmakers are not sure what to expect and they have kept him safe. The track is currently listed as dead and it is raining, weather effected tracks will suit him, he has a good 1600m record, but potentially more distance, like the New Zealand Stakes over 2000m might suit more. You almost have to include him because who knows what to expect.
Veyron will be the favourite coming off a strong Group 1 win over 1400m, he has a solid 1600m record and will be very hard to beat here.
Hold It Harvey is still very consistent and always seems to finish between 2nd and 4th in these races. This distance is his favourite recording 7 of his 14 victories at 1600m. He was really good this time of year last year, he has 8 career victories between 8th and 13th up, making this race right in the time when he tends to hit peak form. This is tough but $8.50 looks good value.
The Hombre looks the up-and-comer, if we were to jump forward to this time next year and list all of the Group 1 winners during that time, would you be surprised to see his name? no, me either. He looks to have that potential.
Guiseppina will likely struggle if it continues to rain, but this looks such a good opportunity for her to get a second Group One. Forget the run at Waikato, but I do question the 1600m, her results have been strange over this distance, she might have been effected by class, weight, track conditions or field size but the 12th and 15th are uncharacteristic, we have seen her run out 1400m races strongly which should indicate that 1600m is going to suit, but we are yet to see it.
Postmans Daughter is looking more and more likely to take out one of these races. Her last start was over 2000m, but dropping back in distance doesn't seem to be a major problem for her and she has a strong 1600m record. She also appears to becoming more suited to WFA conditions, and a rain effected track should not hinder her chances two much as she suits them better than a lot in this race.
Lady Kipling has won five races this season. This distance certainly appeals and WFA conditions for the 4YO mare shouldn't hold her chances back.
It is a tough race to pick because of the unknown conditions, looking at the forecast, we could get a lot of rain today, none tomorrow and then some overnight before the race. I will guess that this track will be at least Slow, possibly Heavy. That been the case my selections are
First - Veyron - Looks so good, handles all conditions, just a cut above.
Second - Hold it Harvey - Consistent, will handle the conditions, this could be the right place and the right time
Third - Postman's Daughter - Has shown she is up to this level of competition, back to 1600m shouldn't concern.
Fourth - Eagle Mountain - As I said he is so much of an unknown you really have to include him, particularly on a rain effected surface.
Value - Pretty good value around Postman's Daughter ($16), and even the Hombre ($10). Veyron looks so well placed here, but place odds for those will be interesting.
Longest shot I can see winning - Postman's Daughter ($16)
The Otaki Group 1 really feels like the black sheep of New Zealand Group Ones, it just seems like a weird time and place amongst landscape of large race days and other Group 1's, aside from the $200,000 Group 1, the remaining races on this day are worth between $8,000 and $12,000. On first glance the field this attracted was maybe not what you might expect from a Group One either. This field contains four Group 1 winners, but it appears Vosne Romanee's best days have past, and Eagle Mountain is an unknown quantity.
When I looked again at this field in more detail this race may represent the changing face of New Zealand Group One races. Vosne Romanee, Vonsuti, Mufhasa, Hold It Harvey, Sir Slick, Six O'Clock News, Booming and two a lesser extent Wall Street (who is now racing in Australia), that is essentially the field for most Weight For Age Group 1 races over for the past couple of years. Yes, Mufhasa is still dominant, Six O'Clock News has maybe recaptured form, Booming was twice a Group 1 winner last year is still looking a possible Auckland Cup winner. These horses are not completely past it, but the point is that we have all seen these races before.
Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational have each won two Group One races this season at age four. This race contains Four Year Old mares Postman's Daughter (already a Group 2 winner and Group 1 place getter), Lady Kipling (Group 1 placed at age three and 4th in a Group 1 age four). As well as Five Year Old Group 1 Winning mare Guiseppina. This race contains Veyron (now a two time Group 1 winner) only age six, as well as promising five year old The Hombre who has won in Australia and placed at Group 1 level in New Zealand this year. This race also contains 4YO's Sadist and Jaggard who have question marks around the WFA races, but no question have talent and the potential to be running at this level. There have also been other recent runners at age four or five stepping up to Group 1 level and showing potential.
The question I am asking, is this race an example of the future of Group 1 racing in New Zealand? (for the next couple of years at least) Well, it is hard to say, certainly you would think Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational will continue to travel to Australia to compete. The problem with the mares like Guiseppina is that her connections will likely only continue to race her so long as they are winning more prize money than her progeny is likely to sell for, and they are not risking serious injury. Look at Barinka last year, solid career, finally got that Group 1, maybe didn't look like winning many more big races, suffered a bit of an injury, then retired. Another example is Veloce Bella who won the 2010 Darci Brahma International Stakes and by the time the 2011 version of that race came around she was in foal. I am sure there are countless other examples, but the landscape of these races can quickly change when it comes to the potential for a career after racing. That is why the nine horses I listed as an example of our recent Group 1 runners are all Geldings.
It is impossible to know how many more times the runners in the Haunui Farm Group 1 Classic will go on to compete against each other at this level because of some of the reasons listed above, but it is clear that I might have dismissed this field a bit too quickly because it does look like this field may contain some of the next generation of Group 1 competitors, and it is certainly evidence that we are in for an exciting group of emerging Group 1 contenders over the next couple of years.
How is this race going to play out? Here are some of my main talking points
I really think this race comes down to Eagle Mountain, certainly two years ago if he was running in this race he would have been considered favourite. At $7.50 on fixed odds it is clear that even bookmakers are not sure what to expect and they have kept him safe. The track is currently listed as dead and it is raining, weather effected tracks will suit him, he has a good 1600m record, but potentially more distance, like the New Zealand Stakes over 2000m might suit more. You almost have to include him because who knows what to expect.
Veyron will be the favourite coming off a strong Group 1 win over 1400m, he has a solid 1600m record and will be very hard to beat here.
Hold It Harvey is still very consistent and always seems to finish between 2nd and 4th in these races. This distance is his favourite recording 7 of his 14 victories at 1600m. He was really good this time of year last year, he has 8 career victories between 8th and 13th up, making this race right in the time when he tends to hit peak form. This is tough but $8.50 looks good value.
The Hombre looks the up-and-comer, if we were to jump forward to this time next year and list all of the Group 1 winners during that time, would you be surprised to see his name? no, me either. He looks to have that potential.
Guiseppina will likely struggle if it continues to rain, but this looks such a good opportunity for her to get a second Group One. Forget the run at Waikato, but I do question the 1600m, her results have been strange over this distance, she might have been effected by class, weight, track conditions or field size but the 12th and 15th are uncharacteristic, we have seen her run out 1400m races strongly which should indicate that 1600m is going to suit, but we are yet to see it.
Postmans Daughter is looking more and more likely to take out one of these races. Her last start was over 2000m, but dropping back in distance doesn't seem to be a major problem for her and she has a strong 1600m record. She also appears to becoming more suited to WFA conditions, and a rain effected track should not hinder her chances two much as she suits them better than a lot in this race.
Lady Kipling has won five races this season. This distance certainly appeals and WFA conditions for the 4YO mare shouldn't hold her chances back.
It is a tough race to pick because of the unknown conditions, looking at the forecast, we could get a lot of rain today, none tomorrow and then some overnight before the race. I will guess that this track will be at least Slow, possibly Heavy. That been the case my selections are
First - Veyron - Looks so good, handles all conditions, just a cut above.
Second - Hold it Harvey - Consistent, will handle the conditions, this could be the right place and the right time
Third - Postman's Daughter - Has shown she is up to this level of competition, back to 1600m shouldn't concern.
Fourth - Eagle Mountain - As I said he is so much of an unknown you really have to include him, particularly on a rain effected surface.
Value - Pretty good value around Postman's Daughter ($16), and even the Hombre ($10). Veyron looks so well placed here, but place odds for those will be interesting.
Longest shot I can see winning - Postman's Daughter ($16)
Wednesday 22 February 2012
Will Sir Slick win another race?
When perusing the nominations for this weekend's races I was struck by a couple of things. Firstly, we are looking at another excellent weekend of racing, Group 1 racing in New Zealand with the Haunui Farm Group 1 from Otaki, a big day in Melbourne, two important races for the two year olds in Matamata. The Second was the Listed, Stanley Group Trac Stakes., whilst I am interested in all of the racing action, the Stanley Group Trac Stakes really struck me, why did that race interest me? Sir Slick, not the fact he is nominated, this will be race 149, so he has been nominated many times before, but on first perusal of the field I thought "wow, he might actually have a shot here". It has been a while since I have watched a Sir Slick outing and genuinely thought that.
I love Sir Slick, I am sure that I am not alone in that feeling. He has an extraordinary overall record with 22 wins, he has placed another 39 times in his 148 starts to date. I fondly recall a series of races a few years ago the 2009 New Zealand Stakes, the Japan/NZ Trophy, and the Awapuni Gold Cup. (Follow the link and watch those races. You will need to sign up, but that is free. It is worth it).
I distinctly remember those races as the reason I love watching Sir Slick, it is ironic that in a career highlighted by a number of Group 1 wins and 22 overall victories the quintessential Sir Slick races I choose are 3 second placings. Why do I remember them? I guess I remember the first two because I was fortunate enough to be on course those days. The two which really stand out are the two battles with MacO'Reilly.
It is a strange experience looking back at those videos, on course that day at Ellerslie I was sitting on a table at the end of the home straight, I just remember it been a two horse race, I had no idea O'Reilly Rose nearly stole the show until watching that video. It is funny how you choose to remember events you witnessed in person. Do you remember how much the Ellerslie crowd loved Sir Slick? he was the people's champ, everyone wanted to see a victory, you could sense it. The way that race (and the one at Awapuni) played out, two front running horses, a break from the pack, they were really bringing the best out in each other (each had many great moments in races not facing each other, but those battles stick in my mind), it felt like none of the other horses existed, they were the only two that were important, which is why my memory is an altered reality.
They are examples of why we love Sir Slick. At his peak he was a bold front running horse, he said "I am going to do this, and if you want you can try and beat me". He dared his competitors to chase him down and more often than not wore them down. How can you not appreciate his confidence and raw ability? When he was challenged, when a horse like MacO'Reilly pulled up beside him, he always found more, he lifted, he loved the challenge, the race, the fight. He didn't always prevail, but he was the alpha male who hated having horses in front of him.
That might have been one of the last times that Slick was Slick. There is no doubting he has not quite reached the same heights since those races, or maybe even from slightly before. Yes, he won a couple of races (including taking out the following years Awapuni Gold Cup), he placed in a few and has raced well since then, but those races fondly stick in my mind.
Will Sir Slick win this weekend at Matamata? he certainly has a shot. He is facing the formerly great Pasta Post, who despite a couple of flashes has not recaptured pre-injury form.Veteran South Island galloper Inferno. Up and coming Undisclosed who is coming off his first Group 1 start and now looking at 2000m for the first time. Badly out of form stayer Back in Black, who is still looking at the Auckland Cup. Options, a South Islander who looked good in a couple of starts in Auckland and a third in a similar 2000m race at Te Rapa recently. Better Together a week removed from the Taranaki Cup (1800m) where 200m more might have helped. A former jumper who goes well fresh and showed good form prior to Christmas, Maythehorsebemagic. The often difficult to follow Miss Sharapova. Phantom Storm who may be looking for more distance but should be flying home. The Raconteur is a year removed from better form. The consistent Cat Woman who failed to fire last time stepping up to Open Handicap level. Finally the four year old Starcheeka who is improving with racing and will be well suited to 53kgs this weekend. There will be challenges, but he is definitely in with a chance, this 10 year old has been counted out before only to come back with a flash of his former brilliance. I think this race (if it happens as nominated) may come down to Starcheeka, Maythehorsebemagic, Options and Better Together, there are others who should be considered and Sir Slick is definitely one of those.
If Sir Slick is unable to secure a victory here the question will remain, will Sir Slick win another race? after all that he has given us, does it really matter?
I love Sir Slick, I am sure that I am not alone in that feeling. He has an extraordinary overall record with 22 wins, he has placed another 39 times in his 148 starts to date. I fondly recall a series of races a few years ago the 2009 New Zealand Stakes, the Japan/NZ Trophy, and the Awapuni Gold Cup. (Follow the link and watch those races. You will need to sign up, but that is free. It is worth it).
I distinctly remember those races as the reason I love watching Sir Slick, it is ironic that in a career highlighted by a number of Group 1 wins and 22 overall victories the quintessential Sir Slick races I choose are 3 second placings. Why do I remember them? I guess I remember the first two because I was fortunate enough to be on course those days. The two which really stand out are the two battles with MacO'Reilly.
It is a strange experience looking back at those videos, on course that day at Ellerslie I was sitting on a table at the end of the home straight, I just remember it been a two horse race, I had no idea O'Reilly Rose nearly stole the show until watching that video. It is funny how you choose to remember events you witnessed in person. Do you remember how much the Ellerslie crowd loved Sir Slick? he was the people's champ, everyone wanted to see a victory, you could sense it. The way that race (and the one at Awapuni) played out, two front running horses, a break from the pack, they were really bringing the best out in each other (each had many great moments in races not facing each other, but those battles stick in my mind), it felt like none of the other horses existed, they were the only two that were important, which is why my memory is an altered reality.
They are examples of why we love Sir Slick. At his peak he was a bold front running horse, he said "I am going to do this, and if you want you can try and beat me". He dared his competitors to chase him down and more often than not wore them down. How can you not appreciate his confidence and raw ability? When he was challenged, when a horse like MacO'Reilly pulled up beside him, he always found more, he lifted, he loved the challenge, the race, the fight. He didn't always prevail, but he was the alpha male who hated having horses in front of him.
That might have been one of the last times that Slick was Slick. There is no doubting he has not quite reached the same heights since those races, or maybe even from slightly before. Yes, he won a couple of races (including taking out the following years Awapuni Gold Cup), he placed in a few and has raced well since then, but those races fondly stick in my mind.
Will Sir Slick win this weekend at Matamata? he certainly has a shot. He is facing the formerly great Pasta Post, who despite a couple of flashes has not recaptured pre-injury form.Veteran South Island galloper Inferno. Up and coming Undisclosed who is coming off his first Group 1 start and now looking at 2000m for the first time. Badly out of form stayer Back in Black, who is still looking at the Auckland Cup. Options, a South Islander who looked good in a couple of starts in Auckland and a third in a similar 2000m race at Te Rapa recently. Better Together a week removed from the Taranaki Cup (1800m) where 200m more might have helped. A former jumper who goes well fresh and showed good form prior to Christmas, Maythehorsebemagic. The often difficult to follow Miss Sharapova. Phantom Storm who may be looking for more distance but should be flying home. The Raconteur is a year removed from better form. The consistent Cat Woman who failed to fire last time stepping up to Open Handicap level. Finally the four year old Starcheeka who is improving with racing and will be well suited to 53kgs this weekend. There will be challenges, but he is definitely in with a chance, this 10 year old has been counted out before only to come back with a flash of his former brilliance. I think this race (if it happens as nominated) may come down to Starcheeka, Maythehorsebemagic, Options and Better Together, there are others who should be considered and Sir Slick is definitely one of those.
If Sir Slick is unable to secure a victory here the question will remain, will Sir Slick win another race? after all that he has given us, does it really matter?
Friday 17 February 2012
Stayers on display in the lead up to Auckland Cup week
I tend to enjoy longer races than sprints, I just enjoy the potential for different tactics, the fact that it all plays out over a longer time frame and that things can consistently change throughout the running. It is sad that we only have two major two mile races in New Zealand and very few other staying feature races, the longest Weight For Age Race is the St Ledger over 2500m at listed level, and we have a handful of Group 2 2400m races. So this is a weekend to savour for people who enjoy top fields of stayer's as we have the Group 2 Avondale Cup and the Group 3 Taranaki Cup (which is only over 1800m, but still), these races combine to feature 15 runners who hold nominees for the Auckland Cup (every runner in the Avondale Cup is currently listed as nominated), so to say this is a important lead up weekend for Cup week is not an understatement.
Taranaki Cup
Lets look at the Taranaki Cup first. I have never been to Pukekura Raceway, but I must say that on TV it is certainly one of the more eye catching tracks in the country, the ocean views in the background, Pukekura Park close by (home to New Zealand's most eye catching Cricket ground), it looks like a great place to attend a race day. The highlights of this field include Wellington Cup runner-up Spiro, Showcause returning, who won last years Avondale and City of Auckland Cup's, Thorndon Mile place getter Jetset Lad, the talented and consistent Smoulder, and a few lightweight chances who appeal as up-and-comers.
Place getters in this race over the last couple of years have not actually gone on to even run in the Auckland Cup, preferring alternate 2000m Group 1's, you have to go back to 2009 when Vickezzchardonnay won here and then ran 4th in the Auckland Cup, and Mircile Miss followed up her 3rd her with a 13th in the cup.
Spiro is having his forth start in just over a month, however as the Wellington Cup second shows he gets better with a bit more racing. He has actually won twice 8th up in his career, while also having wins in the 6th and 9th races of campaigns. He is undefeated over 1800m and on the course in his only attempt a couple of years back. I am not sure if going back in distance will really help, he has looked better over longer distances in recent years and he will have to carry an extra 1kg from the Wellington Cup, and 6kgs more than his last victory, which was in the Wellington Cup the year before. There are enough reasons to stay away from him in this event.
Showcause is having his first start back since the New Zealand Cup and a reasonably successful Melbourne Spring. He has such a good record over 2400m and at Ellerslie it is somewhat surprising he was not aimed at defending his Avondale Cup, but clearly having a first start over a shorter distance was the preferred option. All of his Open Handicap victories have come carrying significantly less weight, but with decent ground underfoot he should be respected.
Cassini was probably outweighed in the City of Auckland and Wellington Cup, 55kg does appeal. The weather looks to be fine which should improve the track to the point it will really suit Cassini. The main concern is 1800m, it feels a bit on the sharp side, it would have been interesting to see what weight she might have got in the Avondale Cup, based on Ratings it might have been closer to what Booming is carrying, so this looks her best chance.
Back in Black, the 2000m victory in Hastings looked like a sign of better things to come, we have not see those things yet. As a seasoned campaigner it is surprising to see that this would be the biggest victory of his career. I guess you should respect some of the past results, but I am happy to leave him out.
Jetset Lad looks very well placed here. He will carry more weight than his Group 1 third in the Thorndon Mile, but the impressive finish combined with the strong record in New Plymouth makes it look like 1800m is exactly what will be required.
Riomoral recorded a lower grade win over 1950m, it is really hard to know what to make of that after most of his starts to date have been over 1200-1400m. You have to respect the win, and the weight reduction at this class, but this looks like a challenge.
Sircross has shown consistency over 1600m, 200m more here without many other changes looks like it will suit. He was a chance in each of his last three starts against similar competition, when you look at the added 200m it looks like he will be an even better chance here. Value at $16.
Minquar Qiam was fifth here two years back to Bruce Almighty, I remember really liking him that year and I can neither confirm nor deny having anything on him in the Auckland Cup. He has not quite reached that level again, but if you look at distance and weight this is the type of event which should see him at his peak competitiveness. Is it enough to see him improve on that fifth? I am not so sure.
I am a big Smoulder fan, many of her 19 starts have come over 1600m, but I always thought a bit more distance wouldn't be a challenge. Other than her run in last years Avondale Guineas her only other start over 1600m was in Australia. Both of her recent runs have been against similar or possibly stronger competition so she is very well placed here and 1800m appeals.
Bruce Almighty will be 48th up, his last win was here in July and he has already had 13 starts since then, his best result was two starts back for second. While this is tough I have written him off before only to see him come through. As a winner of 5 races here you cannot completely write him off, but at the same time he is hard to take on recent form.
Spartanicus has a sweet name and again looks like he should be in this type of race at this weight and distance. He is drawn wide which she see him in a similar position to where he produced a big finish last start. Worth considering, but it appears that there might be too much talent here for him.
Better Together looks to have some ability and should challenge with only 53kgs. Her best recent results have seen her handy from reasonable draws so barrier two is probably right where she wants to be, the distance looks right, her best results have come left handed. She is right in this. Currently paying $9 fixed odds feels about right but maybe a touch short to be considered great value. It is hard to leave her out.
The inform Star of the Show has won 3 straight and not been out of the top 3 this summer. All of that has come at a lower grades, but the reduced weight and big finishes make this seem like the right time to have a shot at this type of race. This is a major step up and will test the 4YO, but I can actually see it happening.
The Raconteur takes a while to get going, but has not shown the same consistency as he did a year ago. The only appeal is the light weight, but it would be a surprise to see him in the top four.
Pomellato is a horse who is closing in on that course specialist title with half of her wins coming here. She was in a far lower grade when she won over 1800m here a month ago. While she looks like a chance, if I was picking a light weight option I would probably look elsewhere.
Bruno is another stepping up who is hard to completely discount, because of weight and recent results. This is a good chance to show his potential if he runs, but a win would surprise.
The Pick
First - Smoulder - All things considered she is the one who looks the most likely to see winning.
Second - Sircross - Good value is hard to turn down, will be interesting to see the tote place odds.
Third - Jetset Lad - I can see why he is favoured here, but there are a lot of chances, it will be a good victory for whoever comes through.
Forth - Better Together - I think one of the lightweights will feature and it was really a toss up between her and Star of the Show, Cassini still deserves a look as well.
Best Value - Sircross ($16)
Longest Shot I can see winning - Bruce Almighty ($21, although it feels a bit short)
Avondale Cup
This time last year Showcause was the lock of the day in the Avondale Cup (... checking result, Ok, maybe not, but Darryl Bradley looks reasonably comfortable in the photo). He went on to run Second in the Auckland Cup, Innocent Lady took her Second here to Forth in the Auckland Cup, and Can't Keeper Down went on to run fifth in the Auckland Cup following her forth. A good show here is important (Trilogy 4th to 9th, Castle Heights 6th to 3rd, Tinsletown 8th to 11th), and does correlate to Auckland Cup success. Prior to last year the race was run at Avondale (in December), the last running was won by Ginga Dude, however in 2010 there was a Cup prelude run on this day, Heza Karma Karzi won and then ran last in the Auckland Cup, Everbright was second and ran 13th in the Cup and Six O'Clock News ran 3rd ended up 7th in that years Auckland Cup, it is evident that the Group 2 status makes this race much more attractive as a lead up to the Auckland Cup, every runner you will see on Saturday still holds a nomination to the Auckland Cup.
For your interest the lead ups for the last three Auckland Cup winners (Titch, Zavite, Spin Around) was Second in the Nathan's Memorial, 1st in a 2500m race in Melbourne, and Second in the Nathan's Memorial, so look out on Derby Day for our next Cup winner. Prize Lady ran in the equivalent of the Avondale Cup/Cup Prelude prior to both of her Auckland Cup Wins.
Booming is carrying a significant weight on Saturday, you can expect him to put forward a good effort over 3200m in the Auckland Cup, but this looks tough. Weight For Age races clearly appeal because of the relative weights his rivals will carry and he has not had a lot of luck this year, but efforts were better prior to Christmas and in Melbourne. Paying $10 on fixed odds seems right as I can't see him as favourite but you cannot rule him out.
The Jungle Boy loves Ellerslie! he enjoys the scenery, he must like the company and crowd, he has had nine starts here, about a quarter of his total races, it is just unfortunate that he doesn't like racing here. It is a mystery as to why, if you take Ellerslie out of it he has won 3 of 12 right handed, it is not like he has come up against amazing competition, or terrible conditions, or consistent bad draws, it is just a weird statistical thing. He has been consistent lately, was good in the Wellington Cup (his first placing at 2400m), but course and distance stats are a concern. This might be the day.
Current New Zealand Cup Champion Blood Brotha won in atrocious conditions. He was very quiet in the Wellington Cup at a point when 2400m seemed ideal. Looking back he has generally bounced back after a bad result so feel free to ignore that Wellington run. They should nickname this horse The Carousel as Michael Coleman will become the 8th Jockey to ride him in as many starts.
Castle Heights was third in the Auckland Cup last year following his 6th in this race. His third in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was in a reasonably similar race. Ellerslie has not been his favourite place to run and 2400m has not been his best distance, but it certainly looks like things are lining up nicely for him to overcome that on Saturday.
Single Minded won the City of Auckland Cup he is back tomorrow carrying only 1kg more. He has won four of his 10 starts, three of those have come this campaign, two over this distance. He was reasonably close in the Wellington Cup and can easily contend here.
Loose Change's only start at Ellerslie to date was a third in this race last year. He has consistently made ground toward the finish in starts over 2000m and should give the punter every chance. Maybe there are horses with more talent in this race but you should get an honest performance and a horse going forward not backwards when it matters. 2400m appeals and $10 looks like decent value.
Wisecrack will be ridden by James McDonald for the 3rd consecutive time and is searching for win number three from those races.He has won half of his starts and generally either wins or really loses, his best result when not winning is finishing 5 lengths from the winner. The last two non-victories involved a vet problem and a knock, the 11th in the Derby was on a very wet day, and the other poor performance looks like it was simply his second start. From that you can assume that he will win unless he gets bad luck.
Don Domingo is a horse who does not really appeal at this level, despite that the fact that he is only going to carry 53kgs. The good include, 53kg's, 3 wins at Ellerslie, he improves with racing, the unknown is the 2400m and the Open Handicap level does not appeal. He might be worth a flyer.
Yours has won 8 races and over 100k but this would be by far the most significant. It is hard not to be a snob but when a horse is racing at Open Handicap level with 48 career starts and none at Ellerslie you have to question the opposition. I would say you have to consider him on the basis of the close second to Titch, but if Titch was in this race would he be in your top four? probably not on current form. This is also his first start right handed.
Innocent Lady has all of the potential in the world. She actually reminds me a bit of Six O'Clock News, it is very impressive when it comes together, but a lot of the time it just doesn't. Her last couple of starts before this race last year were dubious, then she ran second here and fourth in the Auckland Cup. She is well weighted to make her look like value.
Maythehorsebemagic was racing over fences 6 months ago, however has looked pretty good as a stayer on the flat. This is a step up, but the recent record over 2400m and at Ellerslie makes this look tempting particularly given the 52.5kg which is basically nothing compared to what he carried as a hurdler. He will also go pretty well fresh too.
Top Spot has done pretty well with a couple starts at Open level, she will carry 2kg's less than the City of Auckland Cup third. She appears to like it with a bit of moisture around. Give her a chance.
Aruriteson really needs to show me something to make me think he can cut it at this level.
The Picks
First - Wisecrack - just looks like this will be a suitable situation for win number four.
Second - Single Minded - should battle well with wisecrack
Third - Maythehorsebemagic - Will stay well, ready to step up? 52kg is a temptation that is hard to pass on.
Forth - Loose Change - Honest performer who should go close
Best Value - Maythehorsebemagic ($21) - Another place chance at odds
Longest Shot I can see winning - Maythehorsebemagic
Taranaki Cup
Lets look at the Taranaki Cup first. I have never been to Pukekura Raceway, but I must say that on TV it is certainly one of the more eye catching tracks in the country, the ocean views in the background, Pukekura Park close by (home to New Zealand's most eye catching Cricket ground), it looks like a great place to attend a race day. The highlights of this field include Wellington Cup runner-up Spiro, Showcause returning, who won last years Avondale and City of Auckland Cup's, Thorndon Mile place getter Jetset Lad, the talented and consistent Smoulder, and a few lightweight chances who appeal as up-and-comers.
Place getters in this race over the last couple of years have not actually gone on to even run in the Auckland Cup, preferring alternate 2000m Group 1's, you have to go back to 2009 when Vickezzchardonnay won here and then ran 4th in the Auckland Cup, and Mircile Miss followed up her 3rd her with a 13th in the cup.
Spiro is having his forth start in just over a month, however as the Wellington Cup second shows he gets better with a bit more racing. He has actually won twice 8th up in his career, while also having wins in the 6th and 9th races of campaigns. He is undefeated over 1800m and on the course in his only attempt a couple of years back. I am not sure if going back in distance will really help, he has looked better over longer distances in recent years and he will have to carry an extra 1kg from the Wellington Cup, and 6kgs more than his last victory, which was in the Wellington Cup the year before. There are enough reasons to stay away from him in this event.
Showcause is having his first start back since the New Zealand Cup and a reasonably successful Melbourne Spring. He has such a good record over 2400m and at Ellerslie it is somewhat surprising he was not aimed at defending his Avondale Cup, but clearly having a first start over a shorter distance was the preferred option. All of his Open Handicap victories have come carrying significantly less weight, but with decent ground underfoot he should be respected.
Cassini was probably outweighed in the City of Auckland and Wellington Cup, 55kg does appeal. The weather looks to be fine which should improve the track to the point it will really suit Cassini. The main concern is 1800m, it feels a bit on the sharp side, it would have been interesting to see what weight she might have got in the Avondale Cup, based on Ratings it might have been closer to what Booming is carrying, so this looks her best chance.
Back in Black, the 2000m victory in Hastings looked like a sign of better things to come, we have not see those things yet. As a seasoned campaigner it is surprising to see that this would be the biggest victory of his career. I guess you should respect some of the past results, but I am happy to leave him out.
Jetset Lad looks very well placed here. He will carry more weight than his Group 1 third in the Thorndon Mile, but the impressive finish combined with the strong record in New Plymouth makes it look like 1800m is exactly what will be required.
Riomoral recorded a lower grade win over 1950m, it is really hard to know what to make of that after most of his starts to date have been over 1200-1400m. You have to respect the win, and the weight reduction at this class, but this looks like a challenge.
Sircross has shown consistency over 1600m, 200m more here without many other changes looks like it will suit. He was a chance in each of his last three starts against similar competition, when you look at the added 200m it looks like he will be an even better chance here. Value at $16.
Minquar Qiam was fifth here two years back to Bruce Almighty, I remember really liking him that year and I can neither confirm nor deny having anything on him in the Auckland Cup. He has not quite reached that level again, but if you look at distance and weight this is the type of event which should see him at his peak competitiveness. Is it enough to see him improve on that fifth? I am not so sure.
I am a big Smoulder fan, many of her 19 starts have come over 1600m, but I always thought a bit more distance wouldn't be a challenge. Other than her run in last years Avondale Guineas her only other start over 1600m was in Australia. Both of her recent runs have been against similar or possibly stronger competition so she is very well placed here and 1800m appeals.
Bruce Almighty will be 48th up, his last win was here in July and he has already had 13 starts since then, his best result was two starts back for second. While this is tough I have written him off before only to see him come through. As a winner of 5 races here you cannot completely write him off, but at the same time he is hard to take on recent form.
Spartanicus has a sweet name and again looks like he should be in this type of race at this weight and distance. He is drawn wide which she see him in a similar position to where he produced a big finish last start. Worth considering, but it appears that there might be too much talent here for him.
Better Together looks to have some ability and should challenge with only 53kgs. Her best recent results have seen her handy from reasonable draws so barrier two is probably right where she wants to be, the distance looks right, her best results have come left handed. She is right in this. Currently paying $9 fixed odds feels about right but maybe a touch short to be considered great value. It is hard to leave her out.
The inform Star of the Show has won 3 straight and not been out of the top 3 this summer. All of that has come at a lower grades, but the reduced weight and big finishes make this seem like the right time to have a shot at this type of race. This is a major step up and will test the 4YO, but I can actually see it happening.
The Raconteur takes a while to get going, but has not shown the same consistency as he did a year ago. The only appeal is the light weight, but it would be a surprise to see him in the top four.
Pomellato is a horse who is closing in on that course specialist title with half of her wins coming here. She was in a far lower grade when she won over 1800m here a month ago. While she looks like a chance, if I was picking a light weight option I would probably look elsewhere.
Bruno is another stepping up who is hard to completely discount, because of weight and recent results. This is a good chance to show his potential if he runs, but a win would surprise.
The Pick
First - Smoulder - All things considered she is the one who looks the most likely to see winning.
Second - Sircross - Good value is hard to turn down, will be interesting to see the tote place odds.
Third - Jetset Lad - I can see why he is favoured here, but there are a lot of chances, it will be a good victory for whoever comes through.
Forth - Better Together - I think one of the lightweights will feature and it was really a toss up between her and Star of the Show, Cassini still deserves a look as well.
Best Value - Sircross ($16)
Longest Shot I can see winning - Bruce Almighty ($21, although it feels a bit short)
Avondale Cup
This time last year Showcause was the lock of the day in the Avondale Cup (... checking result, Ok, maybe not, but Darryl Bradley looks reasonably comfortable in the photo). He went on to run Second in the Auckland Cup, Innocent Lady took her Second here to Forth in the Auckland Cup, and Can't Keeper Down went on to run fifth in the Auckland Cup following her forth. A good show here is important (Trilogy 4th to 9th, Castle Heights 6th to 3rd, Tinsletown 8th to 11th), and does correlate to Auckland Cup success. Prior to last year the race was run at Avondale (in December), the last running was won by Ginga Dude, however in 2010 there was a Cup prelude run on this day, Heza Karma Karzi won and then ran last in the Auckland Cup, Everbright was second and ran 13th in the Cup and Six O'Clock News ran 3rd ended up 7th in that years Auckland Cup, it is evident that the Group 2 status makes this race much more attractive as a lead up to the Auckland Cup, every runner you will see on Saturday still holds a nomination to the Auckland Cup.
For your interest the lead ups for the last three Auckland Cup winners (Titch, Zavite, Spin Around) was Second in the Nathan's Memorial, 1st in a 2500m race in Melbourne, and Second in the Nathan's Memorial, so look out on Derby Day for our next Cup winner. Prize Lady ran in the equivalent of the Avondale Cup/Cup Prelude prior to both of her Auckland Cup Wins.
Booming is carrying a significant weight on Saturday, you can expect him to put forward a good effort over 3200m in the Auckland Cup, but this looks tough. Weight For Age races clearly appeal because of the relative weights his rivals will carry and he has not had a lot of luck this year, but efforts were better prior to Christmas and in Melbourne. Paying $10 on fixed odds seems right as I can't see him as favourite but you cannot rule him out.
The Jungle Boy loves Ellerslie! he enjoys the scenery, he must like the company and crowd, he has had nine starts here, about a quarter of his total races, it is just unfortunate that he doesn't like racing here. It is a mystery as to why, if you take Ellerslie out of it he has won 3 of 12 right handed, it is not like he has come up against amazing competition, or terrible conditions, or consistent bad draws, it is just a weird statistical thing. He has been consistent lately, was good in the Wellington Cup (his first placing at 2400m), but course and distance stats are a concern. This might be the day.
Current New Zealand Cup Champion Blood Brotha won in atrocious conditions. He was very quiet in the Wellington Cup at a point when 2400m seemed ideal. Looking back he has generally bounced back after a bad result so feel free to ignore that Wellington run. They should nickname this horse The Carousel as Michael Coleman will become the 8th Jockey to ride him in as many starts.
Castle Heights was third in the Auckland Cup last year following his 6th in this race. His third in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was in a reasonably similar race. Ellerslie has not been his favourite place to run and 2400m has not been his best distance, but it certainly looks like things are lining up nicely for him to overcome that on Saturday.
Single Minded won the City of Auckland Cup he is back tomorrow carrying only 1kg more. He has won four of his 10 starts, three of those have come this campaign, two over this distance. He was reasonably close in the Wellington Cup and can easily contend here.
Loose Change's only start at Ellerslie to date was a third in this race last year. He has consistently made ground toward the finish in starts over 2000m and should give the punter every chance. Maybe there are horses with more talent in this race but you should get an honest performance and a horse going forward not backwards when it matters. 2400m appeals and $10 looks like decent value.
Wisecrack will be ridden by James McDonald for the 3rd consecutive time and is searching for win number three from those races.He has won half of his starts and generally either wins or really loses, his best result when not winning is finishing 5 lengths from the winner. The last two non-victories involved a vet problem and a knock, the 11th in the Derby was on a very wet day, and the other poor performance looks like it was simply his second start. From that you can assume that he will win unless he gets bad luck.
Don Domingo is a horse who does not really appeal at this level, despite that the fact that he is only going to carry 53kgs. The good include, 53kg's, 3 wins at Ellerslie, he improves with racing, the unknown is the 2400m and the Open Handicap level does not appeal. He might be worth a flyer.
Yours has won 8 races and over 100k but this would be by far the most significant. It is hard not to be a snob but when a horse is racing at Open Handicap level with 48 career starts and none at Ellerslie you have to question the opposition. I would say you have to consider him on the basis of the close second to Titch, but if Titch was in this race would he be in your top four? probably not on current form. This is also his first start right handed.
Innocent Lady has all of the potential in the world. She actually reminds me a bit of Six O'Clock News, it is very impressive when it comes together, but a lot of the time it just doesn't. Her last couple of starts before this race last year were dubious, then she ran second here and fourth in the Auckland Cup. She is well weighted to make her look like value.
Maythehorsebemagic was racing over fences 6 months ago, however has looked pretty good as a stayer on the flat. This is a step up, but the recent record over 2400m and at Ellerslie makes this look tempting particularly given the 52.5kg which is basically nothing compared to what he carried as a hurdler. He will also go pretty well fresh too.
Top Spot has done pretty well with a couple starts at Open level, she will carry 2kg's less than the City of Auckland Cup third. She appears to like it with a bit of moisture around. Give her a chance.
Aruriteson really needs to show me something to make me think he can cut it at this level.
The Picks
First - Wisecrack - just looks like this will be a suitable situation for win number four.
Second - Single Minded - should battle well with wisecrack
Third - Maythehorsebemagic - Will stay well, ready to step up? 52kg is a temptation that is hard to pass on.
Forth - Loose Change - Honest performer who should go close
Best Value - Maythehorsebemagic ($21) - Another place chance at odds
Longest Shot I can see winning - Maythehorsebemagic
Thursday 16 February 2012
Three Year Old Power Rankings - The Mid February Edition
It has been about three weeks since my last edition of the Power Rankings of New Zealand Three Year Olds, and although I have been making this a once a month gimmick I wanted to roll it out this week so I can squeeze in another edition before the New Zealand Derby, which is really what this had been about all of this time. I have been a little caught up in Derby hype over the past couple of weeks (17 Sleeps), I have already written about the contenders this week, but there are a number of top 3YO's who have dropped out of the Derby.
The Big Up's
Who has stepped up and shown something since the last edition?
Quintessential - Crushed em (by centimetres) at Trentham in the Desert Gold Stakes at Group 3 Level beating a handful of runners familiar with this list, followed up with a solid third in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Capital Diamond - Solid since before the 1000 Guineas, put up back to back seconds in the afore mentioned races.
Rock'n'Pop - Karaka 3YO Mile winner followed that up with a strong third at Open Weight For Age Group 1 Level at Waikato.
Knight's Tour - Added another win to his record, worked hard for it but it was not as challenging a race.
Bangalore Bullet - Won a couple of listed Guineas Races in the past few weeks down south.
Silent Achiever - Continues her rise up the rankings.
Zurella - Winner of the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic to answer some questions.
Our Famous Eve - Second in the Royal Stakes, she did herself proud with her effort in stronger company at WFA level, her fifth was not far off second, but still a distance out of first.
Downer's
Who has not performed up to their ranking?
Testa Secret - After the solid Eight Carat Classic she was less than solid in her next two, she might be a bit tired after a busy few weeks.
Ocean Park - Not a major downer, still a lot of hype and Derby favouritism, but not flying as high as a month ago.
Planet Rock - Thought the forth in the Sir Tristram Fillies was good, so not a major downer, but a win there may have cemented first spot.
Chicharita - Was on the verge before her disappointing run in the Sir Tristram Fillies.
Abeautifulred - had been very solid before the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Sangster - I am happy to forgive the run, after whatever the incident was at the 450m mark it looked like he was eased home. I would have liked to see more, but I expect he will continue to improve with distance.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Distill (9), Duckworth Lewis (10)
Honourable Mention:
Distill (hardest omission, he is a Group 1 winner after all, but we will not see him again in New Zealand), Duckworth Lewis (will be great as a 4YO if we don't see him again at age 3), Burgundy (still unsure what to make of him), Artistic (continues to race in solid form), Quintessential (big riser), Nashville, Xanadu, Shuka (always seems to come up against Ocean Park and Silent Achiever), Our Famous Eve.
Rankings
Number 10 - Capital Diamond (N/A) - Has looked very strong over the last couple of starts with seconds in very strong fillies races. Is Oaks nominated where $10 looks good value if she continues her consistency and even shows some improvement.
Number 9 - Ocean Park (5) - Still a lot of hype and a great shot at the Derby. The loss to Silent Achiever was not that bad, he will be highly backed on Derby Day and should be ready for 2400m at that point.
Number 8 - Sangster (2) - A big drop, it is probably undeserved and is more of a reaction to the form of other runners on this list. Something went wrong on Saturday (in a race he was never really a winning chance in anyway) and I am sure he will improve with more distance and more racing and climb this list again.
Number 7 - Knight's Tour (6) - Was set for a rise in these rankings until the word of his injury spread. It is hard not to feel sorry for the connections who had a horse who looked like a potential Group 1 winner and are now faced with uncertainty as to when his career will resume. Obviously you just have to hope he comes back in the same form.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (1) - I can't penalise the 4th in the Sir Tristram Fillies too hard, that was a tough race and quality field.
Number 5 - Zurella (N/A) - Back up in the rankings after the Sir Tristram Fillies race victory which included the powerful, Planet Rock and Artistic, as well as up and coming Quintessential and Capital Diamond.
Number 4 - Silent Achiever (8) - Now we know she is headed for the New Zealand Derby (or maybe not), she has beaten her main rival over 2000m and continues to show a lot of finishing speed. We will probably get another look at her on Avondale Guineas Day before the Derby where she will be a major threat to take home the prize.
Number 3 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana. It is hard to know when he will next race, couldn't see his name in nominations on either side of the Tasman or find any news stories.
Number 2 - Anabandana (4) - Back to Racing in Australia, wasn't a winner, but possibly lost to a very good Filly in Soft Sand. She looks like she will continue to be consistent and a threat to win in Australia this autumn.
Number 1 - Rock'n'Pop (7) - I agonised about who should really be number one on this list. Antonio Lombardo just hasn't raced for a while, an Aussie win may have seen Anabandana here, the resume of Silent Achiever is just not strong enough. Rock'n'Pop was dominant in the Karaka 3YO Mile and looked very good at Group 1 Level over 2000m.
Value Derby Proposition: Zurella ($6) - I just feel like she is closer to the Silent Achiever/Ocean Park ($3.80) level than this.
Long shot Derby Proposition: Joy's Choice ($51) (longest shot I can see winning at this point if all horses with odds were to start)
Value Oaks Proposition: Mosh Pit ($16) or possibly Quintessential ($12)- Lots of value this far out from the race, but at this point it is probably hard to separate this filly from Artistic ($10), Capital Diamond ($10), Chicharita ($6 - seems way too short), and Planet Rock ($8), Zurella and Silent Achiever are at $6, but who knows if they will run in this and the derby.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Abeautifulred ($61) has been consistent enough to throw a spanner in the works.
The Big Up's
Who has stepped up and shown something since the last edition?
Quintessential - Crushed em (by centimetres) at Trentham in the Desert Gold Stakes at Group 3 Level beating a handful of runners familiar with this list, followed up with a solid third in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Capital Diamond - Solid since before the 1000 Guineas, put up back to back seconds in the afore mentioned races.
Rock'n'Pop - Karaka 3YO Mile winner followed that up with a strong third at Open Weight For Age Group 1 Level at Waikato.
Knight's Tour - Added another win to his record, worked hard for it but it was not as challenging a race.
Bangalore Bullet - Won a couple of listed Guineas Races in the past few weeks down south.
Silent Achiever - Continues her rise up the rankings.
Zurella - Winner of the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic to answer some questions.
Our Famous Eve - Second in the Royal Stakes, she did herself proud with her effort in stronger company at WFA level, her fifth was not far off second, but still a distance out of first.
Downer's
Who has not performed up to their ranking?
Testa Secret - After the solid Eight Carat Classic she was less than solid in her next two, she might be a bit tired after a busy few weeks.
Ocean Park - Not a major downer, still a lot of hype and Derby favouritism, but not flying as high as a month ago.
Planet Rock - Thought the forth in the Sir Tristram Fillies was good, so not a major downer, but a win there may have cemented first spot.
Chicharita - Was on the verge before her disappointing run in the Sir Tristram Fillies.
Abeautifulred - had been very solid before the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic.
Sangster - I am happy to forgive the run, after whatever the incident was at the 450m mark it looked like he was eased home. I would have liked to see more, but I expect he will continue to improve with distance.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Distill (9), Duckworth Lewis (10)
Honourable Mention:
Distill (hardest omission, he is a Group 1 winner after all, but we will not see him again in New Zealand), Duckworth Lewis (will be great as a 4YO if we don't see him again at age 3), Burgundy (still unsure what to make of him), Artistic (continues to race in solid form), Quintessential (big riser), Nashville, Xanadu, Shuka (always seems to come up against Ocean Park and Silent Achiever), Our Famous Eve.
Rankings
Number 10 - Capital Diamond (N/A) - Has looked very strong over the last couple of starts with seconds in very strong fillies races. Is Oaks nominated where $10 looks good value if she continues her consistency and even shows some improvement.
Number 9 - Ocean Park (5) - Still a lot of hype and a great shot at the Derby. The loss to Silent Achiever was not that bad, he will be highly backed on Derby Day and should be ready for 2400m at that point.
Number 8 - Sangster (2) - A big drop, it is probably undeserved and is more of a reaction to the form of other runners on this list. Something went wrong on Saturday (in a race he was never really a winning chance in anyway) and I am sure he will improve with more distance and more racing and climb this list again.
Number 7 - Knight's Tour (6) - Was set for a rise in these rankings until the word of his injury spread. It is hard not to feel sorry for the connections who had a horse who looked like a potential Group 1 winner and are now faced with uncertainty as to when his career will resume. Obviously you just have to hope he comes back in the same form.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (1) - I can't penalise the 4th in the Sir Tristram Fillies too hard, that was a tough race and quality field.
Number 5 - Zurella (N/A) - Back up in the rankings after the Sir Tristram Fillies race victory which included the powerful, Planet Rock and Artistic, as well as up and coming Quintessential and Capital Diamond.
Number 4 - Silent Achiever (8) - Now we know she is headed for the New Zealand Derby (or maybe not), she has beaten her main rival over 2000m and continues to show a lot of finishing speed. We will probably get another look at her on Avondale Guineas Day before the Derby where she will be a major threat to take home the prize.
Number 3 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana. It is hard to know when he will next race, couldn't see his name in nominations on either side of the Tasman or find any news stories.
Number 2 - Anabandana (4) - Back to Racing in Australia, wasn't a winner, but possibly lost to a very good Filly in Soft Sand. She looks like she will continue to be consistent and a threat to win in Australia this autumn.
Number 1 - Rock'n'Pop (7) - I agonised about who should really be number one on this list. Antonio Lombardo just hasn't raced for a while, an Aussie win may have seen Anabandana here, the resume of Silent Achiever is just not strong enough. Rock'n'Pop was dominant in the Karaka 3YO Mile and looked very good at Group 1 Level over 2000m.
Value Derby Proposition: Zurella ($6) - I just feel like she is closer to the Silent Achiever/Ocean Park ($3.80) level than this.
Long shot Derby Proposition: Joy's Choice ($51) (longest shot I can see winning at this point if all horses with odds were to start)
Value Oaks Proposition: Mosh Pit ($16) or possibly Quintessential ($12)- Lots of value this far out from the race, but at this point it is probably hard to separate this filly from Artistic ($10), Capital Diamond ($10), Chicharita ($6 - seems way too short), and Planet Rock ($8), Zurella and Silent Achiever are at $6, but who knows if they will run in this and the derby.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Abeautifulred ($61) has been consistent enough to throw a spanner in the works.
Tuesday 14 February 2012
Who should be the Derby Favourite?
It is about halfway through February, the New Zealand Derby takes place on the third of March at Ellerslie. Two years ago Katie Lee was a class three year old, but this race was a bit too long and it would come down to a battle between Zarzuela and Monaco Consul (as far as the book makers were concerned, although Katie Lee was kept safe), as it turned out Military Move was too strong. Last year everyone knew Jimmy Choux was the top three year old, some suspected the distance would test, but his class prevailed. The point is those races were reasonably clear heading into them, they may not have played out the way that people expected them to, but people were generally talking about a couple of options as potential winners.
This year is far different, the odds are frequently shifting, contenders are battling other contenders on a weekly basis, favourites are going down and at this stage there is probably about seven horses who could win and you would not be shocked. There are still 22 horses in the nomination list, and that list does not include Sangster or Dowager Queen who you might have expected to be contenders in November last year. Lets have a look at some of the nominations and why you can make a case for them as a potential derby winner.
Silent Achiever
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (in the Waikato Guineas over 2000m) Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes over 2100m at Ellerslie), Jerobarm (over 1600m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Planet Rock (Eight Carat Classic over 1600m at Ellerslie)
The win over Ocean Park (then derby favourite) was the one that really cemented Silent Achiever as a horse capable of racing at this level. She has really hit the line strongly each time she steps in the distance which makes the 2400m tempting.
Ocean Park
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Shuka (in the Great Northern Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m), Joys Choice (over 1500m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Knights Tour (Great Northern Guineas)
Thus far the couple of Victories over Shuka are the most impressive on his resume, however his win in the Wellington Stakes was arguably one of the most impressive victories by a three year old this season, he did beat a strong field that day (just no other nominees). The run for second behind Knight's Tour included a finish which would have seen him leading if the race was 50m longer. The second behind Silent Achiever at Te Rapa was good, he didn't really look that comfortable throughout the trip and finished off strongly, but Silent Achiever was simply outstanding, she did a fantastic job to find the hole and catch Ocean Park.
Rock'n'Pop
Current Odds - $6.00
Other noms beaten: Shuka (2000 Guineas over 1600m)
Beaten by: Shuka (Over 1400m at Ashburton)
Is a Group 1 winner who has also placed at Group 1 level at Open level. He came back with a 5th at Tauranga, he then followed up with a strong performances and finish in the Karaka 3YO mile and that 3rd in the Group 1 Darci Brahma International over 2000m. The third last Saturday was a great indication of talent, he didn't get a lot of favours and really hard to work hard, he showed a lot of speed and made up a lot of distance over the final couple of hundred meters.
Knight's Tour
Current Odds -Now out of derby nominations.
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka (Great Northen Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m)
Beaten by: None
Knight's Tour shot into contention with a surprise victory in the Great Northern Guineas on Boxing Day, he followed this up with a hard fought victory on Karaka Millions night over 1600m. He has looked good to date, the win over Ocean Park is probably his best to date when both finished strongly beating a decent guineas field.
Zurella
Current odds - $6
Other noms beaten: Planet Rock (Sir Tristram Fillies Classic at Te Rapa over 2000m) Joy's Choice (Eulogy Stakes over 1600m at Ellerslie), Joy's Choice, Roamin, (at Te Rapa over 1400m)
Beaten by:
The victory in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic was huge. She was unable to finish off the 2000m strongly in the Royal stakes, that may have been because of the conditions, or because it was her first attempt, however none of that matters now, she beat a class field on the weekend and won in style over 2000m.
Shuka
Current odds - $10
Other noms beaten: Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas), Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes), Rock'n'Pop (over 1400m at Ashburton)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever (Championship Stakes), Knight's Tour, Ocean Park (Great Northern Guineas) Rock'n'Pop (2000 Guineas)
Faced a lot of the contenders and has typically been middle of the pack (relative to the others). He has a good record overall and in bigger races but has not really been able to overcome the elite (who are more favoured than him for the race). Looking at his recent performances over 2000m and 2100m I am not concerned about his ability to get 2400m, but he hasn't really showed that the added 400m/300m would have put him in a position where he would have beaten those horses.
Carrick
Current odds - $14
Other noms beaten: None
Beaten by: None
Will be looking to see how he goes against some of the other noms prior to the derby. He has looked solid to date, but maybe has not faced some of the competition of the other noms.
Planet Rock - is now out of the Derby.
Barney
Current odds - $18
Other noms beaten: Nine Pin (over 2100m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park, Shuka (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever, Shuka, Viking Ace (Championship Stakes)
$18 odds seem a bit low, but it is hard to argue he is not the next best, or at least in the next best group.
It certainly appears overall that this race will come down to a lot of those top nominees, there is certainly a number of cases you can build for each of them, obviously the removal of Planet Rock and Knight's Tour since I began writing this opens things up slightly for others who would have been considered longer shots, but the top four are very close. By looking at some of the past few derby's it is clear longer shots are never out of this race, it would be wise to look closely at some of the performances in lower grade races of some of the runners to see if you can find your outsider. The Avondale Guineas this weekend is always a great indicator as to how horses may go in the Derby, it is definitely one to tune in for.
This year is far different, the odds are frequently shifting, contenders are battling other contenders on a weekly basis, favourites are going down and at this stage there is probably about seven horses who could win and you would not be shocked. There are still 22 horses in the nomination list, and that list does not include Sangster or Dowager Queen who you might have expected to be contenders in November last year. Lets have a look at some of the nominations and why you can make a case for them as a potential derby winner.
Silent Achiever
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (in the Waikato Guineas over 2000m) Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes over 2100m at Ellerslie), Jerobarm (over 1600m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Planet Rock (Eight Carat Classic over 1600m at Ellerslie)
The win over Ocean Park (then derby favourite) was the one that really cemented Silent Achiever as a horse capable of racing at this level. She has really hit the line strongly each time she steps in the distance which makes the 2400m tempting.
Ocean Park
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Shuka (in the Great Northern Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m), Joys Choice (over 1500m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Knights Tour (Great Northern Guineas)
Thus far the couple of Victories over Shuka are the most impressive on his resume, however his win in the Wellington Stakes was arguably one of the most impressive victories by a three year old this season, he did beat a strong field that day (just no other nominees). The run for second behind Knight's Tour included a finish which would have seen him leading if the race was 50m longer. The second behind Silent Achiever at Te Rapa was good, he didn't really look that comfortable throughout the trip and finished off strongly, but Silent Achiever was simply outstanding, she did a fantastic job to find the hole and catch Ocean Park.
Rock'n'Pop
Current Odds - $6.00
Other noms beaten: Shuka (2000 Guineas over 1600m)
Beaten by: Shuka (Over 1400m at Ashburton)
Is a Group 1 winner who has also placed at Group 1 level at Open level. He came back with a 5th at Tauranga, he then followed up with a strong performances and finish in the Karaka 3YO mile and that 3rd in the Group 1 Darci Brahma International over 2000m. The third last Saturday was a great indication of talent, he didn't get a lot of favours and really hard to work hard, he showed a lot of speed and made up a lot of distance over the final couple of hundred meters.
Knight's Tour
Current Odds -Now out of derby nominations.
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka (Great Northen Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m)
Beaten by: None
Knight's Tour shot into contention with a surprise victory in the Great Northern Guineas on Boxing Day, he followed this up with a hard fought victory on Karaka Millions night over 1600m. He has looked good to date, the win over Ocean Park is probably his best to date when both finished strongly beating a decent guineas field.
Zurella
Current odds - $6
Other noms beaten: Planet Rock (Sir Tristram Fillies Classic at Te Rapa over 2000m) Joy's Choice (Eulogy Stakes over 1600m at Ellerslie), Joy's Choice, Roamin, (at Te Rapa over 1400m)
Beaten by:
The victory in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic was huge. She was unable to finish off the 2000m strongly in the Royal stakes, that may have been because of the conditions, or because it was her first attempt, however none of that matters now, she beat a class field on the weekend and won in style over 2000m.
Shuka
Current odds - $10
Other noms beaten: Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas), Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes), Rock'n'Pop (over 1400m at Ashburton)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever (Championship Stakes), Knight's Tour, Ocean Park (Great Northern Guineas) Rock'n'Pop (2000 Guineas)
Faced a lot of the contenders and has typically been middle of the pack (relative to the others). He has a good record overall and in bigger races but has not really been able to overcome the elite (who are more favoured than him for the race). Looking at his recent performances over 2000m and 2100m I am not concerned about his ability to get 2400m, but he hasn't really showed that the added 400m/300m would have put him in a position where he would have beaten those horses.
Carrick
Current odds - $14
Other noms beaten: None
Beaten by: None
Will be looking to see how he goes against some of the other noms prior to the derby. He has looked solid to date, but maybe has not faced some of the competition of the other noms.
Planet Rock - is now out of the Derby.
Barney
Current odds - $18
Other noms beaten: Nine Pin (over 2100m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park, Shuka (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever, Shuka, Viking Ace (Championship Stakes)
$18 odds seem a bit low, but it is hard to argue he is not the next best, or at least in the next best group.
It certainly appears overall that this race will come down to a lot of those top nominees, there is certainly a number of cases you can build for each of them, obviously the removal of Planet Rock and Knight's Tour since I began writing this opens things up slightly for others who would have been considered longer shots, but the top four are very close. By looking at some of the past few derby's it is clear longer shots are never out of this race, it would be wise to look closely at some of the performances in lower grade races of some of the runners to see if you can find your outsider. The Avondale Guineas this weekend is always a great indicator as to how horses may go in the Derby, it is definitely one to tune in for.
Friday 10 February 2012
Seven highlights of the racing weekend
Big weekend coming up in racing on both sides of the Tasman. There is a lot to look forward to, here is a list of my top seven things to look forward to on the track this weekend, in no particular order (other than the fact it will be chronological).
Reason One
Location: Hamilton
Time: 2.43pm
Huge race day in Hamilton this weekend, it is always a good day out, I would love to be down their again this weekend but unfortunately I will have to write about it instead. There are two Group 1's and a Group 2. The Sir Tristram Fillies Classic is one of those races which falls into the Group 2 category but year after year produces a stunning field which could be seen at Group 1 level. Last year Kings Rose followed up her victory in the 2010 Thousand Guineas with a victory in the Cambridge Stud Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. Planet Rock is looking to accomplish the same feat this year, and will be hoping to reproduce the same success that Kings Rose went on to have over the course of the rest of 2011.
The field she will face at Te Rapa this weekend contains a number of runners who hold nominations to the New Zealand Oaks and this is definitely one of those events which will indicate how likely these fillies are to be able to compete in that race.
The highlights include the aforementioned Planet Rock who won the Guineas and the Eight Carat Classic before going down to Chicharita in the Royal Stakes on New Years day. She looked better than 4th in that race and will likely run better in this event after a month off and having her second look at 2000m.
Chicharita the Royal Stakes winner who has had her two worst performances at Te Rapa, that Royal Stakes finish was impressive and a good draw should keep her handy but this does feel like a tougher race.
Up and coming Quintessential who has been notable with solid performances since her second start. She stepped up and won at Group 3 level in Wellington recently, based on that race I would put her in a similar boat to Artistic in relation to this race, both runs were similar and Quintessential won that time, but both ran similar races that day.
Zurella was highly rated heading into the Royal Stakes but she finished a pretty distant fifth, it may have been the distance or the conditions which effected her, but she has talent and deserves to be considered. Abeautifulred is putting together a decent run of races, however she does seem to encounter better horses having better days, this looks tough but she should be around the first few home.
Artistic, is having a similar season to Abeautifulred, since beating the colts in the Bonecrusher stakes she has had a string of fourth's before her striking third to Quintessential recently, it feels like she has the firepower to win this, she just needs things to go her way to be in a handy position for the finish.
Capital Diamond is never far away and showed great fight to not only chase down Abeautifulred, but to hold off the flying Artistic in the Desert Gold Stakes, the step up to 2000m shouldn't concern, she has the ability to remain consistent.
Our Famous Eve nominated here and in the Darci Brahma International she is probably better suited here, but despite the impressive Royal Stakes second I cannot help but think some of the other talent here will catch up with her.
Of the rest Leica Duell seems to have the form over a bit more ground, but it is hard to see the winner not coming from the top half of the field on Saturday.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - Should be better this time at 2000m, the draw is a concern, this is a pick on talent
Second - Artistic - We will see another one of those flying finishes she produces, if she starts her run with room she can win.
Third - Quintessential - Should be better positioned from barrier three to unleash another strong finish
Forth - Zurella - With a good track she deserves another shot at 2000m
Value - Hard to see a candidate who is far over the odds here, maybe some value around Quintessential and Capital Diamond
Reason Two
Location: Hamilton
Time: 3.53pm
Group 1 racing is always a reason to get excited and this race includes a number of factors which deserve attention, there are contenders in this race who I would not have thought would be contenders a month ago. Based on the Boxing Day performance it is hard to go past Shez Sensational, forget the 1600m Group 1 it was too short 2000m is far more suitable.
At weight for age level quality three year old's are hard to go past when making selections and Rock'n'Pop looks like a genuine contender. I remember last year on this day We Can Say It Now looked like a strong contender at Group 1 Level in the Waikato Draft Sprint but came up against a resurgent Mufhasa as well as Wall Street and Keep the Peace who had impressive seasons. Rock'n'Pop may be better suited this year in this event.
How about some of the unlikely contenders here:
Six O'Clock News - Speaking of resurgent, the Wellington Cup was great, this is tougher but he is back in form.
Booming - WFA conditions are the most suitable for Booming, 2000m is the most suitable distance too.
Doctor Fremantle - After Boxing Day you have to consider him, was that a fluke or is there better to come?
Postman's Daughter - After the counties win in November she looked to go off, but she is back racing well, WFA does concern, but she still carried 56kg for second in the Thorndon Mile.
Our Famous Eve - If she runs, at 52kgs she could be dangerous.
The Picks
First: Shez Sensational - Too good boxing day in a very similar and possibly tougher race.
Second: Rock'n'Pop - Strong, lightweight, genuine contender.
Third: Hold it Harvey - 2kg relative difference in weight to Six O'Clock News from their last meeting.
Forth: Six O'Clock News - Will give the recent form respect for now.
Value: If Our Famous Eve runs their could be value, however I would suggest that if Six O'Clock News can put on another show the $12 going at the moment is great value.
Reason Three
Location: Hamilton
Time: 5.03pm
The second Group 1 of the day might be even better in the fact that it contains the defending champion Mufhasa and recent 1200m Group 1 winner Guiseppina stepping up to weight for age conditions. Then there is Veyron, a Group 1 winner undefeated over 1400m stepping back from a second over 2000m at WFA conditions. Then there is Sangster a talented 3YO who won his last start in a small race called the Victorian Derby. This may be a three horse race for first, but it should be an interesting three horse race.
The Picks
First: Mufhasa - Simply too good
Second: Guiseppina - Came home so well 1400m really appeals, capable of carrying the weight and winning
Third: Veyron - First time not winning over 1400m.
Forth: Run Like Al - Formidable record on the course and has won three over 1400m
Value - Run Like Al - Although he will have to put on a show to finish better than forth.
Reason Four
Location: Caulfield
Who doesn't love an underdog story? A battler fighting for respect, doing their best and trying to beat the odds. Well this Saturday at Caulfield you will get to witness a horse having her 18th start, having only won a measly $4.5million, her connections hoping that stepping up to 1400m will be what it takes to finally break through for that treasured victory (the 18th one they treasure). The stands will be dripping with Salmon and Black as the crowds come in force to farewell Black Caviar as she heads off in search of stronger competition. It will be a special occasion, it is rare to see an athlete connecting with the general population and transcending their sport to gain the attention of people who would not normally be interested, Black Caviar as accomplished this with her domination through 17 starts, and it looks to continue this weekend, it is definitely something to look forward to this weekend.
Reason Five
Location: Caulfield
Time: 5.50pm
Looking past the fact that simply having Black Caviar run makes this a special occasion, the race she is running in itself is something to look forward to. This race features a number of Group 1 winners, a Caulfield Cup Winner, a Melbourne Cup Winner, multiple horses with over or close to a million in earnings. This race will ask a question of Black Caviar, which doesn't happen too often and probably has not happened since Hay List asked some questions briefly last year, this question is the 1400m which is the first time she will attempt this distance.
Well here is the answer, of course she will handle the 1400m, she runs 1200m with out even getting out of second gear, if she needs to she can at least kick it into third. She finishes races with so much left in the tank that an extra 200m cannot possibly be a concern.
In regard to the quality competition, unfortunately only two of the horses in this race will likely have their next start at this distance, and they are unlikely to be a threat. The remaining horses Efficient, Playing God, Midas Touch, Precedence, Illo and Southern Speed are starting (or early in) their Autumn campaign, this is not a race they would have necessarily been targeting but it is a step as they begin to look at longer races.
Yes, Black Caviar will win, this is not a bold prediction, the interesting part of the race will be to see who else is winding up behind her. A lot of these horses met in other races in the spring, this will be a barometer as to how they are looking now and who is likely to finish on top of the longer races later in the Autumn.
Reason Six
Location: Sydney, Rosehill
Time: 6.50pm
There is also a big race on in Sydney this weekend worth watching. It is a 1200m race which features a few notable horses, three who have won over $2 million (Danleigh, Snipers Bullet, and Sacred Choice) and another two who will likely go over that mark should they win here (Rangirangdo and Shoot Out) and . Three of the runners have imposable records on the track (Rangirangdoo, Centennial Park and Winter King). There are a couple of up and comers with strong records to date, Rain Affair has such a impressive record. A couple are likely looking for a bit more ground. All with have ambitions of going on to bigger events later in the Autumn. Definitely something to look forward to.
Reason Seven
Location: Caulfield
Time: 7:10pm
Anabandana's first start in Australia. The quality kiwi filly is having a start over a distance she owned in New Zealand (1200m). This is probably one of the tougher fields she has faced overall, but she has the benefit of having Craig Williams who will make sure she is in the best place to show that turn of foot we all know she has. It will be great to see her over in Australia preparing to take on some of the top horses in the region, this will be a really good indication of just how good she can be.
Those are my highlights for this weekend, it really will be an excellent show at Te Rapa and everyone will have an eye across the Tasman as the Autumn begins to wind up.
Reason One
Location: Hamilton
Time: 2.43pm
Huge race day in Hamilton this weekend, it is always a good day out, I would love to be down their again this weekend but unfortunately I will have to write about it instead. There are two Group 1's and a Group 2. The Sir Tristram Fillies Classic is one of those races which falls into the Group 2 category but year after year produces a stunning field which could be seen at Group 1 level. Last year Kings Rose followed up her victory in the 2010 Thousand Guineas with a victory in the Cambridge Stud Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. Planet Rock is looking to accomplish the same feat this year, and will be hoping to reproduce the same success that Kings Rose went on to have over the course of the rest of 2011.
The field she will face at Te Rapa this weekend contains a number of runners who hold nominations to the New Zealand Oaks and this is definitely one of those events which will indicate how likely these fillies are to be able to compete in that race.
The highlights include the aforementioned Planet Rock who won the Guineas and the Eight Carat Classic before going down to Chicharita in the Royal Stakes on New Years day. She looked better than 4th in that race and will likely run better in this event after a month off and having her second look at 2000m.
Chicharita the Royal Stakes winner who has had her two worst performances at Te Rapa, that Royal Stakes finish was impressive and a good draw should keep her handy but this does feel like a tougher race.
Up and coming Quintessential who has been notable with solid performances since her second start. She stepped up and won at Group 3 level in Wellington recently, based on that race I would put her in a similar boat to Artistic in relation to this race, both runs were similar and Quintessential won that time, but both ran similar races that day.
Zurella was highly rated heading into the Royal Stakes but she finished a pretty distant fifth, it may have been the distance or the conditions which effected her, but she has talent and deserves to be considered. Abeautifulred is putting together a decent run of races, however she does seem to encounter better horses having better days, this looks tough but she should be around the first few home.
Artistic, is having a similar season to Abeautifulred, since beating the colts in the Bonecrusher stakes she has had a string of fourth's before her striking third to Quintessential recently, it feels like she has the firepower to win this, she just needs things to go her way to be in a handy position for the finish.
Capital Diamond is never far away and showed great fight to not only chase down Abeautifulred, but to hold off the flying Artistic in the Desert Gold Stakes, the step up to 2000m shouldn't concern, she has the ability to remain consistent.
Our Famous Eve nominated here and in the Darci Brahma International she is probably better suited here, but despite the impressive Royal Stakes second I cannot help but think some of the other talent here will catch up with her.
Of the rest Leica Duell seems to have the form over a bit more ground, but it is hard to see the winner not coming from the top half of the field on Saturday.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - Should be better this time at 2000m, the draw is a concern, this is a pick on talent
Second - Artistic - We will see another one of those flying finishes she produces, if she starts her run with room she can win.
Third - Quintessential - Should be better positioned from barrier three to unleash another strong finish
Forth - Zurella - With a good track she deserves another shot at 2000m
Value - Hard to see a candidate who is far over the odds here, maybe some value around Quintessential and Capital Diamond
Reason Two
Location: Hamilton
Time: 3.53pm
Group 1 racing is always a reason to get excited and this race includes a number of factors which deserve attention, there are contenders in this race who I would not have thought would be contenders a month ago. Based on the Boxing Day performance it is hard to go past Shez Sensational, forget the 1600m Group 1 it was too short 2000m is far more suitable.
At weight for age level quality three year old's are hard to go past when making selections and Rock'n'Pop looks like a genuine contender. I remember last year on this day We Can Say It Now looked like a strong contender at Group 1 Level in the Waikato Draft Sprint but came up against a resurgent Mufhasa as well as Wall Street and Keep the Peace who had impressive seasons. Rock'n'Pop may be better suited this year in this event.
How about some of the unlikely contenders here:
Six O'Clock News - Speaking of resurgent, the Wellington Cup was great, this is tougher but he is back in form.
Booming - WFA conditions are the most suitable for Booming, 2000m is the most suitable distance too.
Doctor Fremantle - After Boxing Day you have to consider him, was that a fluke or is there better to come?
Postman's Daughter - After the counties win in November she looked to go off, but she is back racing well, WFA does concern, but she still carried 56kg for second in the Thorndon Mile.
Our Famous Eve - If she runs, at 52kgs she could be dangerous.
The Picks
First: Shez Sensational - Too good boxing day in a very similar and possibly tougher race.
Second: Rock'n'Pop - Strong, lightweight, genuine contender.
Third: Hold it Harvey - 2kg relative difference in weight to Six O'Clock News from their last meeting.
Forth: Six O'Clock News - Will give the recent form respect for now.
Value: If Our Famous Eve runs their could be value, however I would suggest that if Six O'Clock News can put on another show the $12 going at the moment is great value.
Reason Three
Location: Hamilton
Time: 5.03pm
The second Group 1 of the day might be even better in the fact that it contains the defending champion Mufhasa and recent 1200m Group 1 winner Guiseppina stepping up to weight for age conditions. Then there is Veyron, a Group 1 winner undefeated over 1400m stepping back from a second over 2000m at WFA conditions. Then there is Sangster a talented 3YO who won his last start in a small race called the Victorian Derby. This may be a three horse race for first, but it should be an interesting three horse race.
The Picks
First: Mufhasa - Simply too good
Second: Guiseppina - Came home so well 1400m really appeals, capable of carrying the weight and winning
Third: Veyron - First time not winning over 1400m.
Forth: Run Like Al - Formidable record on the course and has won three over 1400m
Value - Run Like Al - Although he will have to put on a show to finish better than forth.
Reason Four
Location: Caulfield
Who doesn't love an underdog story? A battler fighting for respect, doing their best and trying to beat the odds. Well this Saturday at Caulfield you will get to witness a horse having her 18th start, having only won a measly $4.5million, her connections hoping that stepping up to 1400m will be what it takes to finally break through for that treasured victory (the 18th one they treasure). The stands will be dripping with Salmon and Black as the crowds come in force to farewell Black Caviar as she heads off in search of stronger competition. It will be a special occasion, it is rare to see an athlete connecting with the general population and transcending their sport to gain the attention of people who would not normally be interested, Black Caviar as accomplished this with her domination through 17 starts, and it looks to continue this weekend, it is definitely something to look forward to this weekend.
Reason Five
Location: Caulfield
Time: 5.50pm
Looking past the fact that simply having Black Caviar run makes this a special occasion, the race she is running in itself is something to look forward to. This race features a number of Group 1 winners, a Caulfield Cup Winner, a Melbourne Cup Winner, multiple horses with over or close to a million in earnings. This race will ask a question of Black Caviar, which doesn't happen too often and probably has not happened since Hay List asked some questions briefly last year, this question is the 1400m which is the first time she will attempt this distance.
Well here is the answer, of course she will handle the 1400m, she runs 1200m with out even getting out of second gear, if she needs to she can at least kick it into third. She finishes races with so much left in the tank that an extra 200m cannot possibly be a concern.
In regard to the quality competition, unfortunately only two of the horses in this race will likely have their next start at this distance, and they are unlikely to be a threat. The remaining horses Efficient, Playing God, Midas Touch, Precedence, Illo and Southern Speed are starting (or early in) their Autumn campaign, this is not a race they would have necessarily been targeting but it is a step as they begin to look at longer races.
Yes, Black Caviar will win, this is not a bold prediction, the interesting part of the race will be to see who else is winding up behind her. A lot of these horses met in other races in the spring, this will be a barometer as to how they are looking now and who is likely to finish on top of the longer races later in the Autumn.
Reason Six
Location: Sydney, Rosehill
Time: 6.50pm
There is also a big race on in Sydney this weekend worth watching. It is a 1200m race which features a few notable horses, three who have won over $2 million (Danleigh, Snipers Bullet, and Sacred Choice) and another two who will likely go over that mark should they win here (Rangirangdo and Shoot Out) and . Three of the runners have imposable records on the track (Rangirangdoo, Centennial Park and Winter King). There are a couple of up and comers with strong records to date, Rain Affair has such a impressive record. A couple are likely looking for a bit more ground. All with have ambitions of going on to bigger events later in the Autumn. Definitely something to look forward to.
Reason Seven
Location: Caulfield
Time: 7:10pm
Anabandana's first start in Australia. The quality kiwi filly is having a start over a distance she owned in New Zealand (1200m). This is probably one of the tougher fields she has faced overall, but she has the benefit of having Craig Williams who will make sure she is in the best place to show that turn of foot we all know she has. It will be great to see her over in Australia preparing to take on some of the top horses in the region, this will be a really good indication of just how good she can be.
Those are my highlights for this weekend, it really will be an excellent show at Te Rapa and everyone will have an eye across the Tasman as the Autumn begins to wind up.
Friday 3 February 2012
The most interesting thing this weekend
It has been an eventful week in New Zealand racing with the Karaka Sales. Given that this is the case I still couldn't think of anything to write about this weekends racing action. I was not really interested in looking into anything happening at Otago, the Waikato races interest me but with the smallish Waikato Guineas field I didn't see the point in going into detail. My next thought was with the Sydney Autumn carnival just around the corner it might be worth having a look at races across the ditch and see how the build up is going, however after having a look at the fields in Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland nothing really grabbed my attention, I even had a quick scan of the races on Adelaide and Perth.
I was left with nothing to write about, more so than usual (or should that be less so?) and it has not stopped me in the past. I asked myself, what am I most interested in this weekend? The answer is the Waikato Guineas, but not really the race itself, the battle between leading Derby contender Ocean Park, and leading Oaks contender Silent Achiever (see I told you I would find a way to bring her up in every post until the Oaks).
In this post I will disrespect (and probably regret it later) every other horse they will face this weekend and commence a "tale of the tape" style breakdown on the Ocean Park vs Silent Achiever. Yes, and entire post focusing on two horses in a Group 3 race (that sound you just heard was every other reader slamming their palm on their forehead and rapidly clicking away from this post).
This seemingly unexciting race is really shaping up like a battle between two potential Group 1 winners. Now that I have sufficiently jinxed both of these feel free to put your money on Shuka this weekend. I really think Silent Achiever has a fairly clear run to the Oaks with less competition, I am very weary of Knight's Tour as competition to Ocean Park to the derby. I think if Ocean Park wins this he will likely shorten slightly for the Derby and Silent Achiever will probably not move too much in regard to the Oaks, conversely if Silent Achiever wins she will probably be significantly shorter as Oaks favourite, we Knights Tour may take over as Derby favourite. There is a lot at stake this weekend for these two horses.
I was left with nothing to write about, more so than usual (or should that be less so?) and it has not stopped me in the past. I asked myself, what am I most interested in this weekend? The answer is the Waikato Guineas, but not really the race itself, the battle between leading Derby contender Ocean Park, and leading Oaks contender Silent Achiever (see I told you I would find a way to bring her up in every post until the Oaks).
In this post I will disrespect (and probably regret it later) every other horse they will face this weekend and commence a "tale of the tape" style breakdown on the Ocean Park vs Silent Achiever. Yes, and entire post focusing on two horses in a Group 3 race (that sound you just heard was every other reader slamming their palm on their forehead and rapidly clicking away from this post).
| Category | Ocean Park | Silent Achiever | Edge | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 3YO | 3YO | Even | If you want to get technical Silent Achiever is 25 Days older than Ocean Park. |
| Sex | Colt | Filly | Even | I am not going to touch that one. |
| Overall Record | 4-3-1-0 | 4-2-1-1 | Ocean Park | |
| Distance Record | 0-0 | 0-0 | Silent Achiever | Has won over 2100m while Ocean Park has not raced over more than 1600m, however was so impressive it looked like 2000m will be no problem. |
| Best Win | Jan 21st @ Wellington (1600m Group 3) | Jan 1st @ Ellerslie (2100m Group 2) | Ocean Park | Was so impressive two weeks ago running away over 1600m. |
| Best Loss | December 26th @ Ellerslie 2nd to Knights Tour (1600m Group 2) | December 26th @ Ellerslie 3rd to Planet Rock and Testa Secret (1600m Group 2) | Silent Achiever | Ocean Park's run was amazing for second, but the 3rd was in an absolutely stacked Eight Carat Classic. |
| Jockey | Chad Ormsby | James McDonald | Slight edge, Silent Achiever | It is closer than you may think, Chad Ormsby has a relationship with Ocean Park, but James McDonald is the best Jockey in the country. |
| The Tron | Trained in Matamata, won twice left handed. | Trained in Cambridge, first start left handed. | Ocean Park | Both don't have too far to travel, Ocean Park's left handed results give him the edge. |
| Big Beats | Shuka, Burgundy (twice), Joy's Choice, Nashville, Fort Lincoln | Dowager Queen, Artistic, Xanadu, Holy Moly, Abeautifulred, Shuka | Silent Achiever | Thus far in their respective careers it is clear that Silent Achiever has beaten horses with bigger profiles. |
| Name | Ocean Park? What is that anyway? | Silent Achiever, is that what you really want. | Slight Edge Ocean Park | Neither name really stands out, will give the slight edge to Ocean Park because at least they incorporated the sire Thorn Park, so it is not just something pointless and made up. |
| Colours | Blue with a white cross and sleeves | Gold | Ocean Park | Have to admit that the Silent Achiever colours are a bit boring, then again they are easy to spot during the running. |
| Trainer Success this year | 23-5-1-3 and $90k this year with an impressive 4.6 strike rake, thanks in big part to Ocean Park | 96-17-116-9 and $300k this year at an impressive 5.65 strike rate. Not to mention an Australian Group 1 Victory which was not a victory. | Silent Achiever | But it is relative to the size of their operations. |
| Biggest Derby/Oaks Competition | Knight's Tour | Chicharita | Silent Achiever | Despite the $5 quote, it just looks like an easier race to win. |
| Holy hell that was impressive moment | Pulling away from a Group 3 field and winning impressively last start | Her first win where she flew home over the last 200m for victory. | Ocean Park | I am very biased, I was on course for that Silent Achiever victory, and it was one for the most impressive things I have seen in person. However, that Ocean Park win was at Group 3 level. |
| Who's your daddy? | Thorn Park | O'Reilly | Silent Achiever | Thorn Park Sold 10 Lots @ $126,000 O'Reilly Sold 39 @ $138,077 at the recent premier sale at Karaka. That seems like a fair measurement. |
| Predicted Finishing Position Saturday | First | Second | Ocean Park | I really, really wanted to call Silent Achiever here, but I just couldn't do it, I have totally bought into the Ocean Park hype, however I think I will place some money on Silent Achiever. |
| Overall | Won 7 Categories | Won 7 Categories | Even | After all of this it is fairly even between these two and we are probably looking at the New Zealand Derby and Oaks winners this year. |
This seemingly unexciting race is really shaping up like a battle between two potential Group 1 winners. Now that I have sufficiently jinxed both of these feel free to put your money on Shuka this weekend. I really think Silent Achiever has a fairly clear run to the Oaks with less competition, I am very weary of Knight's Tour as competition to Ocean Park to the derby. I think if Ocean Park wins this he will likely shorten slightly for the Derby and Silent Achiever will probably not move too much in regard to the Oaks, conversely if Silent Achiever wins she will probably be significantly shorter as Oaks favourite, we Knights Tour may take over as Derby favourite. There is a lot at stake this weekend for these two horses.
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