What is it about raining Thursdays or Fridays this year? It makes it very difficult to make any kind of predictions about what might happen with remaining uncertainty over the potential track conditions. This time of year we see the return of a lot of winter runners, as well as summer runners finishing their run so it does really make a difference.
On initial glance this is a very difficult week to pick six, but with $250,000 on the table it is probably worth a shot.
Leg 1 - Race 4 - Rating 75 1200m
Hard to not include
#1 - A Keepa
Reason to Include
The most experienced 1200m horse in the field. Very close last time for fourth, steps back in rating and will have to carry more weight. Is consistent and well drawn.
Reason to leave out
The weight will be a factor, and the record at Te Rapa is also suspect, however has not run there since July and August of 2010, so there has been some time, overall he does seem to perform slightly better going right handed.
#2 - Baldovino
Reason to Include
He goes well fresh winning his first three starts before stepping up to Group 1 level earlier this season. Any rain should help improve his performance. The step back in class should suit, and the Te Rapa record is sound. The weight should not concern.
Reason to Leave out
Was early this season a flash in the pan?
#6 - Tango Terrific
Reason to include
Back after over a month off, that is a state in which he has performed well in the past. His last start was at rating 85 over 1400m at Ellerslie, he finished 7th, but he fought on well and really only faded over the last 150m. Has won over the distance.
Reason to leave out
Back in class so will carry significant more weight, he has only ever carried 58kg once for 7th. Has not run left handed a lot throughout his career.
Consider Including
#8 Lucy in Disguise
Reason to include
Super consistent runner. Will go well with a bit of moisture around. 3rd up, has won after a few starts before so should be ready. Last start winner who looked good in that race. 1200 record is strong.
Reason to leave out
This is tougher than the last victory, he will also carry an extra 2kg. She seems to have shown a lot of improvement into this preparation, so it is interesting to see if that will continue. Drawn barrier 15, not the best starter so could have a bit of extra work to do in this company.
#12 - Street Party
Reason to include
Was unlucky stepping up last start, was racing up in class prior to this. Back to 1200m which is an ideal distance and is well weighted here.
Reason to leave out
Barrier 19 will make things tough, she was drawn 14 four starts back and it was not ideal, so she may struggle here. The rain may make things difficult.
#14 - Cap Eden Roc
Reason to include
The overall record stands out, good over the distance, and if the surface is dead she has performed well.
Reason to leave out
Has struggled stepping up in class, she might be well backed but struggle here.
#3 - Prince of Wales
Reasons to Include
Will have his first start since boxing day 2010, he always goes well fresh. A very consistent runner, only once out of the first four. Should go well over 1200m although will potentially be searching for more distance.
Reason to leave out
A question over the long lay out, I also question the amount of weight he might carry here. Draw may make things a bit tough.
#9 - Sateka
Reasons to include
A well weighted mare who has been in good form recently.
Reason to leave out
This looks a big step up, this race contains some tough competition.
Leg 2 - Race 5 - 3YO Group 3 - 1200m
Hard not to include
#2 - Burgundy
Reason to include
A lot has been said about the win in the Mr Tiz Trophy last start, 1200m is going to suit this very classy runner. Possible anchor who wont worry about the conditions and is drawn to get an ideal run. He could overpower them.
Reason not to include
Watch the last start of Ginner Hart again, while that is not a reason not to include, it is a reason he may not be the perfect Anchor. He has been well backed a lot of times and not always proved himself worthy of the hype.
#1 - Ginner Hart
Reason to include
Was close to flawless last week against a tough field of more experienced runners. Dropping back to 1200m has suited well, he will handle all conditions well.
Reason not to include
He will carry the same set weight here, that is 3.5kg more than last week. You have to go back to early starts as a 2YO and 3YO since he has carried that and looked good.
Consider Including
#9 - Holy Moly
Reason to include
One of the best non winning performances of the year was her 3rd here in October, that was to Antonio Lombardo and Anabandana, while beating Artistic, Chicarita and Caiprinha. That was a long time ago, but she is classy at best. She has shown some of that in her last two starts. It looks like another run over 1200m will suit.
Reason to leave out
She tailed off quickly after a good start to the season against tougher competition.
#5 Golden Globe
Reason to include
Has been super consistent in a limited number of starts but has displayed potential. He has been freshened since November and has won in that state before. Looks like a pure sprinter and will not mind any rain.
Reason to Leave out
This seems like a step up in class, he will face some accomplished runners this weekend. Drawn wide, but will push forward so may negate that.
#3 Precision King
Reason to include
As consistent as he has been he has looked really good over his last couple of starts. He has been great over 1200m and on left handed tracks. He will handle the ground well.
Reason to leave out
He has seemed to get some interference or maybe just not started well the last couple of times from similar draws, he might try to push forward, but it looks like there are a few speedy runners which could make this a challenging task.
#4 - Casting Stones
Reason to include
Has won last two starts, consistent before that, looks like 1200m is ideal.
Reason to leave out
Drawn wide, is taking a step up in class, was pretty handily beaten he took on some of the better 3YO's in December and this is tougher.
Leg 3 - Race 6 - Open Handicap - 1600m
Hard to Leave out
#2 Alegrio
Reason to include
He didn't disappoint stepping up to Group 1 level with a solid and close 8th. 1600m is his best distance and he does go well at Te Rapa with a couple of wins.
Reason to leave out
The start before the Easter Handicap was less impressive, he will carry an extra 2kg here because of the relative drop in quality. Consistent early this year and has tailed off a bit, however has previously won several races after a number of starts.
#7 - Sum Up
Reason to include
Two races of note, the 6th in the Easter Handicap was strong, and the second in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was also notable.
Reason to leave out
There is a case to be made that more distance would better suit, however in this company over 1600m I think he will go well. The wide draw may concern, he has been pretty lucky with draws recently.
Consider Including
#1 - Indikator
Reason to include
Wasn't terrible when 8th second up last time, however he has won 5 times 3rd or 4th up, so he should be ready for this. 1600m is a distance he has won on and he showed it with a good finish last time. He will suit any track conditions.
Reason to leave out
He is probably searching for a bit more distance, he has not won over less than 2000m for some time now.
#3 Atom Cat
Reason to include
9th behind Alegrio in the Easter, but there was a gap. He might have had and excuse, he did come for them late, in a smaller field he may have ran closer. He will like some give in the track and has won 3rd up a couple of times. I thought he might give some cheek last time, maybe this is the time to watch out.
Reason to leave out
It has been a while between drinks, he has not been great of late. It feels like he should be racing in this class, but he has not been winning.
#5 Worthing
Reason to include
I always like a runner who
performs of a track even when things are not going as well elsewhere.
He was in better form the last couple of Te Rapa runs before the failure
here this prep.
Reason to leave out
He has not been in the best form, you would be taking purely because of his preference for the track.
#15 Time Keeper
Reason to include
The run on Wednesday was very strong. Not sure if we can expect to see a run or not, but I suspect you may have to include if we do. Has won 3 in a row before, but each had a two week break.
Reason to leave out
This is a horse who gets better with running, but two in 4 days? and for a $40k Open race, what is the point? It will be interesting to see how Sir Slick 2.0 goes. By my count he has run 13 times with as little as a week between runs (5 weeks in a row at one point), he has only won 1 of those races.
Leg 4 - Race 7 - 3YO - 2000m (You are very happy if you are still alive right now)
Hard to Leave out
#3 Post D'France
Reason to include
Looks a great staying prospect as he has built to a strong win last start. This is slightly tougher, but he has always ran on well enough to indicate that 2000m+ is suitable.
Reason to leave out
Has not really been as consistent and this step up in class may be a concern.
#2 Red Shift
Reason to include
He has been freshened since decent performance in the Derby, back to 2000m and back in class, at a distance which would appear to suit against runners who are at his level. Now with Roger James who is having an outstanding run. One of those runners who always looks good before races, he is big and strong and should get better.
Reason to leave out
You could argue he is impossible to leave out. If you are going to leave him out possibly look to the 7th two starts back.
Consider including
#1 Dowager Queen
Reason to include
This consistent filly has been good without been outstanding since her return from Melbourne. She was freshened slightly before her last start and is now building up to more suitable distances. She will come for them and hit the line well, she will handle moisture in the track.
Reason to leave out
Leave out if you are not sure of the recent form. If you took away what she did in Melbourne she is probably hard to have here.
#7 Ryan John
Reason to include
Still a maiden, but probably improved for the 2000m start, that was actually at a higher grade, so he should be more suited to this. Pretty decent third on the track last start, locally trained.
Reason to leave out
Maiden runner, dead track may have concerned two starts back.
#9 Vittoria
Reason to include
Fourth in the Oaks in Victoria shows ability, she should improve with a couple of runs and more distance. The 9th last start was only 3 lengths back, not too bad.
Reason to leave out
Is a three length loss at rating 75 enough evidence that she will improve enough to win this, I am not so sure.
#6 Tiberius
Reason to include
Looks like an improving runner who will be suited to the rise in distance.
Reason to leave out
The rise in class might be the concern.
Leg 5 - Race 8 - F&M WFA Group 2 - 2000m (excitement building if you are still alive)
Hard to leave out
#1 Postmans Daughter
Reason to include
My pro Postmans Daughter bias will be exposed here, but I think she has been great all year. She proved it in the Easter, 1600m was short of ideal and she impressed for a very close second.2000m should be ideal. She has had two fourths at Open WFA level over this distance, both times beaten by the boys and Shez Sinsational/Scarlett Lady
Reason to leave out
While she was not far off at Te Aorah I thought she might be due for a break then she showed up in the Easter, but that was under a very light weight.
#3 Lady Kipling
Reason to include
Has beaten Postmans Daughter under these conditions. Not last time, but at Boxing day. Beat PD last start at equal weight over 1600m. 2000m is going to suit.Good record at Te Rapa.
Reason to leave out
Although capable, she has never won past 1600m.
Consider including
#16 Joy's Choice
Reason to include
3YO runners in WFA
conditions are certainly tempting. She has looked good this year and has
improved over more distance. 5th in the Oaks, and two good runs prior
to that over 2000 and 2100m. She also seems to like Te Rapa
Reason to leave out
Despite going close a few times she has not won at this type of level. This is tough against the older runners.
#2 Floria
Reasons to include
Handled WFA conditions well when 6th in the Group 1. This is similar but longer. The added distance shouldn't be a massive issue.
Reasons to leave out
The race is quite similar to other races which have not resulted in success.
#5 Villify
Reason to include
I like more in the rain, but she looks like the step up to 2000m may be suitable. She has won here and the draw will be ideal.
Reason to leave out
Still looks more suitable to handicap conditions a this stage.
#9 Mini Pearl
Reason to include
Probably would not have been this high on her before her last start, however that was a pretty good win over this distance against decent competition. Seemed to be building well towards that point and scored a good victory.
Reason to leave out
Seems to be best on good tracks, and this is a big step up from recent starts.
Leg 6 - Race 9 - Rating 75 - 2400m
Hard to leave out
#7 Manhattan Mam
Reason to include
On the strength of that last victory. Was pretty good in the Oaks and has carried on well. More distance should suit.
Reason to leave out
Yet to succeed left handed. Both wins have been on good tracks.
Consider including
#4 Gold Cape
Reason to include
Dropping back in class from a good 4th in a strong race over 2000m where she fought well. 2400m looks like a distance which will be suitable.
Reason to leave out
Yet to win over 2400m and will actually carry more weight than last start here.
#8 Bob Valdez
Reason to include
Strong winner here two
starts ago, looked like there was more to give. Has been pretty
consistent if you throw out the wet track results.
Reason to leave out
If the track is worse than dead or if it has been chopped up by this late
race (of course you will have already made this bet by then)
#3 Stingray
Reason to include
Consistent, beat Bob Valdez last time out. Has recently shown strong finishes, 2400m should suit.
Reason to leave out
Stepping up in grade, distance, and not really getting a lot of weight relief.
#5 Runaway Bride
Reason to include
Look at the odds she has paid this prep, even after winning 2 in a row she was still paying massive odds, she looks like one who is always over looked. 2400m should suit now.
Reason to leave out
Leave out if you don't believe this current form swing, she has been overlooked a lot recently.
How to play
It is a tough Pick 6 because there is no clear anchor, there are not even many legs where taking two would feel comfortable. Look at the last leg, what a mess, so I guess you have to consider weather you take a risk early and end up with five runners in the last leg, however there is no reason to have five runners when you are knocked out in the second leg.
Leg 1 - 1,2,6,8
Leg 2 - 1,2
Leg 3 - 2,7,1
Leg 4 - 2,3,7
Leg 5 - 1,3
Leg 6 - 7,4
That is 288 combinations, so maybe one to get together with some mates to try to get a percentage of it. If you want to go cheaper I would consider going only number 7 in the last as it is the anchor I am most comfortable with. I possibly would leave out number 7 in the fourth leg as well (or number 1 in the third), that would leave you with 96 combinations. I think we could get close to another jackpot for next week.
Friday 27 April 2012
Friday 20 April 2012
April Edition 3YO Power Rankings
I wanted to wait for the Australian Derby before preparing this version of the power rankings in the hope that there was not question over number one, despite a strong effort Silent Achiever ran a close up 6th. That looked like a two horse race heading in but Laser Hawk finished third. That may be the end of the season for the New Zealand Derby winner, she will have earned a rest whenever that comes and I look forward to seeing her again in the Spring.
Roger James would have been disappointed with that result. I am sure that he, like many others, thought she had what it took to win that race, however the day was not bad overall for Roger James as he uncovered a potential Oaks contender with Full of Spirit getting it done at Group 3 level with James McDonald on board in the 2000m Patinak Farm Adrian Knox Stakes. Full of Spirit is currently second favourite in a small field for this weekends Australian Oaks. The 3YO daughter of Flying Spur has come out of the woodwork recently, after winning on debut, she finished 7th in both the 1000 Guineas and the strong Eight Carat Classic, and continued to improve before winning her last start before the trip to Sydney.
The last edition of the Power Rankings came out following the Derby, but prior to the Oaks. Given the strength of that race it should have and effect on these rankings. We should also get a good sight of some of these runners over the Winter as it has been confirmed that at least Artistic, and Nashville will be heading to Queensland, and likely other top contenders too.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Knights Tour (7), Antonio Lombardo (10)
Honourable Mention
Chicharita (HM, I see she is in Australia, it will be interesting to see how she goes), Knight's Tour (7, hopefully he ends up in Australia, I know I read about that as a potential plan when he first injured himself), Capital Diamond (HM), Xanadu, Duckworth Lewis (HM), Travolta (HM), Joy's Choice(HM), Nashville (HM, and another off to Australia), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Poste Restante, Glad (HM)
Number 10 - Quintessential (HM) - Toss up between this filly and Xanadu for this last spot. Both were third in a Group 1 last start, both races included impressive fields, but I think her performance in the Oaks and overall season is just stronger.
Number 9 - Burgundy (7) - Really looking forward to seeing him when he next races. I think he has now found his niche around the sprint distances. He has all the talent as we saw early in his career and hopefully he will continue to improve at age 4.
Number 8 - Full of Spirit (N/A) - A bit of hype around this runner, a Group 3 in Australia is an accomplishment, she will really climb these chats with a win in the Oaks.
Number 7 - Carrick (5) - I have not read what the plan is for this Derby place getter, I don't see him on the list of exported horses, so I assume he is having some time off in New Zealand at this point.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (3) - Still not sure the Jockey change for the Oaks was the wisest choice, however I do feel that she was somewhat unlucky in that race and had to expend all of that energy early.
Number 5 - Rock'n'Pop (2) - I look forward to seeing him continue at age four in Australia. He looks such a strong colt, I am not quite sure what his niche will be because he has shown so much talent over all distances so far.
Number 4 - Ocean Park (9) - Unlucky year, was the derby favourite until withdrawal because of track uncertainty. Backed up that decision with a bold second in Sydney only to strike more bad luck leading into the Australian Derby. He appears a very strong 3YO and will possibly continue to age four. Not sure what his targets might be but I imagine he can put on a show in a race like the Windsor Park Plate over 1600m if he ends up there.
Number 3 - Zurella (4) - Out performed my expectations in the Oaks, but combined with a strong derby she is well deserving of a position this high on this list.
Number 2 - Artistic (6) - What is a bigger accomplishment, winning the Oaks or running second in a Group 1 in Australia? I already had her ahead of Ocean Park so she deserves to stay here. She has really built well over the season, she has been super consistent, and she seems to be getting better over more distance, she will be a threat in Queensland.
Number 1 - Silent Achiever (1) - A strong third in the Rosehill Guineas where I feel she was actually a tad unlucky in the big field they assembled. Her 6th in the Australian Guineas is disappointing from the perspective that she was favourite, but ordinarily is still an achievement (didn't Jimmy Choux run 6th in that race last year?)
Roger James would have been disappointed with that result. I am sure that he, like many others, thought she had what it took to win that race, however the day was not bad overall for Roger James as he uncovered a potential Oaks contender with Full of Spirit getting it done at Group 3 level with James McDonald on board in the 2000m Patinak Farm Adrian Knox Stakes. Full of Spirit is currently second favourite in a small field for this weekends Australian Oaks. The 3YO daughter of Flying Spur has come out of the woodwork recently, after winning on debut, she finished 7th in both the 1000 Guineas and the strong Eight Carat Classic, and continued to improve before winning her last start before the trip to Sydney.
The last edition of the Power Rankings came out following the Derby, but prior to the Oaks. Given the strength of that race it should have and effect on these rankings. We should also get a good sight of some of these runners over the Winter as it has been confirmed that at least Artistic, and Nashville will be heading to Queensland, and likely other top contenders too.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Knights Tour (7), Antonio Lombardo (10)
Honourable Mention
Chicharita (HM, I see she is in Australia, it will be interesting to see how she goes), Knight's Tour (7, hopefully he ends up in Australia, I know I read about that as a potential plan when he first injured himself), Capital Diamond (HM), Xanadu, Duckworth Lewis (HM), Travolta (HM), Joy's Choice(HM), Nashville (HM, and another off to Australia), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Poste Restante, Glad (HM)
Number 10 - Quintessential (HM) - Toss up between this filly and Xanadu for this last spot. Both were third in a Group 1 last start, both races included impressive fields, but I think her performance in the Oaks and overall season is just stronger.
Number 9 - Burgundy (7) - Really looking forward to seeing him when he next races. I think he has now found his niche around the sprint distances. He has all the talent as we saw early in his career and hopefully he will continue to improve at age 4.
Number 8 - Full of Spirit (N/A) - A bit of hype around this runner, a Group 3 in Australia is an accomplishment, she will really climb these chats with a win in the Oaks.
Number 7 - Carrick (5) - I have not read what the plan is for this Derby place getter, I don't see him on the list of exported horses, so I assume he is having some time off in New Zealand at this point.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (3) - Still not sure the Jockey change for the Oaks was the wisest choice, however I do feel that she was somewhat unlucky in that race and had to expend all of that energy early.
Number 5 - Rock'n'Pop (2) - I look forward to seeing him continue at age four in Australia. He looks such a strong colt, I am not quite sure what his niche will be because he has shown so much talent over all distances so far.
Number 4 - Ocean Park (9) - Unlucky year, was the derby favourite until withdrawal because of track uncertainty. Backed up that decision with a bold second in Sydney only to strike more bad luck leading into the Australian Derby. He appears a very strong 3YO and will possibly continue to age four. Not sure what his targets might be but I imagine he can put on a show in a race like the Windsor Park Plate over 1600m if he ends up there.
Number 3 - Zurella (4) - Out performed my expectations in the Oaks, but combined with a strong derby she is well deserving of a position this high on this list.
Number 2 - Artistic (6) - What is a bigger accomplishment, winning the Oaks or running second in a Group 1 in Australia? I already had her ahead of Ocean Park so she deserves to stay here. She has really built well over the season, she has been super consistent, and she seems to be getting better over more distance, she will be a threat in Queensland.
Number 1 - Silent Achiever (1) - A strong third in the Rosehill Guineas where I feel she was actually a tad unlucky in the big field they assembled. Her 6th in the Australian Guineas is disappointing from the perspective that she was favourite, but ordinarily is still an achievement (didn't Jimmy Choux run 6th in that race last year?)
Thursday 12 April 2012
Can Jimmy Choux win the Easter Handicap?
We approach the final Group 1 of the season with the same favourite as we approached the first Group 1 of the season. Veyron has had a great year, but if he was to carry the same weight as Jimmy Choux I don't think this would be a debate, Green Supreme was great a couple of weeks ago but is not yet at the class of these other two. The handicap conditions make this race very competitive and as you scroll down the list of nominees you see a lot of runners at their respective weight who can be competitive. The draw has made this race interesting, as had the threat of rain (I am going to try to avoid making a weather prediction this week, as most weeks I am wrong).
All things been equal Jimmy Choux wins this race. Critics will point to his first up record, but his last fresh start was a close second behind Mufhasa at Group 1 level, this fresh start may be slightly different because of his upcoming trip to Australia and this may be just a run to shake off the cobwebs and get him ready for those races. I don't think any ground will be an issue for Jimmy Choux, he has drawn 10, which is not a concern.
Veyron has had a great year, he will carry 2kg less than Jimmy Choux, he was a close second behind Scarlett Lady last start (who would have been considered by many on par with JC last spring before her injury). This was shaping up like a great race as Veyron also can handle all conditions, he has a fantastic record at Ellerslie, loves 1600m, goes very well after a bit of freshening. If the 2kg penalty was not enough to make you consider these two equal the barrier draw has really worked against Veyron and brings things back towards Jimmy Choux's favour.
Green Supreme is the other candidate with great potential. He won easily over 1400m last start and will take on the extra 200m here. He looked very good building up over ground before his 6th in the Wellington Cup. His 1600m and Auckland records and sound, and he has won twice on slow tracks. The handicap conditions will give him 55kg to carry which is only 500 grams more than he carried to victory last start. How good is he relative to Jimmy and Veyron is the big unknown. He has won carrying more at lower grades over the past couple of months, he has quickly risen through the grades and is suited to these Open handicap conditions, he is very well drawn to be a major factor.
There are two other runners backing up from last weeks Group 1, the handicap conditions should suit both Postman's Daughter and Fleur de Lune. Fleur de Lune was very close to a win last week, and has secured a good draw in this big field. Postman's Daughter will be .5kg better off this week in weight relative to FdL, who will carry 2.5kg less that the set weight from last week. Postman's Daughter was consistent before her 8th last week and might be ready for a break, Fleur de Lune seems to be coming on and should be well set for this despite the run last week. A little softness underfoot should not concern either runner, FdL goes better at Ellerslie. Both are contenders here, but Fleur de Lune is the better of the two, I am still not sure she will be able to better Green Supreme given the similar weights the two will carry.
Vonusti is the other Group 1 winner in the race (Unless Time Keeper makes it in), he is not really in that Group 1 form, and has not really been as consistent since Boxing Day. The distance he has run over has gone up and down over the last few months, he is pretty well weighted at 55.5kg and should be set for 1600m right now, he is always a danger at Ellerslie.
Others who stand out include Justanexcuse who seems to be getting back to close to his best form. He has been carrying significantly more since the Coupland's Mile which was a comparable weight. Most of his experience is going left but he did win well under a big weight last start. Might be one for odds if the rain comes. He meets Green Supreme relatively 1kg better off than when the two met last with Green Supreme winning by 1 length, is that enough to make this interesting?
It has been about 18 months since Atom Cat won his last race. However he might be worth considering if the conditions take a turn down. He enjoys Ellerslie, has a cosy barrier 4th draw, and has a decent 2nd up record. Actually most of Atom Cat's victories have come early in campaigns, so the resuming 4th possibly showed some promise as it relates to this race. He is carrying 53.5kg in this field which is a very significant light weight.
Of the Richard Collett trained runners I am leaning towards Riotous, he has a weight advantage over his stablemate Alegrio and is drawn better to really compete. Both have similar Ellerslie records, and I imagine that if it is wet the weight advantage should equalise them. I really enjoyed the win here last start, I would stay away if wet, but 52kg compares well to the second here during Auckland Cup week.
Steel Giant is a pretty good horse to only carry 52kg here. A course and distance win on a rain effected track was decent but the field was ripped up with scratchings that day. I wouldn't consider him on a wet track, the draw is a put off and at weights Justanexcuse is effectively dropping the same amount after beating him soundly last start.
Sum Up has been pretty good this season. 1600m is probably short of his best distance, but at weight on a wet track might give some value. This would be by far the biggest win of his career, but he has gone close in decent races and was not a disgrace at Group 1 level. He likes it right handed and recent performances at Ellerslie have shown merit.
Jetset Lad was another I liked, but was put off by the draw. 1600m should really suit, he can factor, but I cant see him winning.
When it comes down to making picks I really think it will depend on how fit Jimmy Choux is and how he will carry that big weight. I think he is better here than Veyron because of Veyron's draw, the next biggest threat is Green Supreme (considering I think he is more suited than Fleur de Lune), I am simply not sure how to compare these two runners. Overall record there is no comparison, at the same weight I would like Jimmy all day. In regard to Green Supreme he has still not really faced a challenge on this level, his next biggest challenge was the Wellington Cup recently, before this it was at 3rd at Group 1 level at age 3, although he has been winning fairly handily this prep, the field he will face on Saturday is very strong. He beat a number of runners here last start, but I still feel like despite the Jimmy Choux question marks I have to look his way in this race, he has been there before and is a proven commodity.
First - Jimmy Choux
Second - Green Supreme
Third - Veyron - He is in great form and loves Ellerslie
Fourth - Atom Cat - I like him more if the rain comes.
All things been equal Jimmy Choux wins this race. Critics will point to his first up record, but his last fresh start was a close second behind Mufhasa at Group 1 level, this fresh start may be slightly different because of his upcoming trip to Australia and this may be just a run to shake off the cobwebs and get him ready for those races. I don't think any ground will be an issue for Jimmy Choux, he has drawn 10, which is not a concern.
Veyron has had a great year, he will carry 2kg less than Jimmy Choux, he was a close second behind Scarlett Lady last start (who would have been considered by many on par with JC last spring before her injury). This was shaping up like a great race as Veyron also can handle all conditions, he has a fantastic record at Ellerslie, loves 1600m, goes very well after a bit of freshening. If the 2kg penalty was not enough to make you consider these two equal the barrier draw has really worked against Veyron and brings things back towards Jimmy Choux's favour.
Green Supreme is the other candidate with great potential. He won easily over 1400m last start and will take on the extra 200m here. He looked very good building up over ground before his 6th in the Wellington Cup. His 1600m and Auckland records and sound, and he has won twice on slow tracks. The handicap conditions will give him 55kg to carry which is only 500 grams more than he carried to victory last start. How good is he relative to Jimmy and Veyron is the big unknown. He has won carrying more at lower grades over the past couple of months, he has quickly risen through the grades and is suited to these Open handicap conditions, he is very well drawn to be a major factor.
There are two other runners backing up from last weeks Group 1, the handicap conditions should suit both Postman's Daughter and Fleur de Lune. Fleur de Lune was very close to a win last week, and has secured a good draw in this big field. Postman's Daughter will be .5kg better off this week in weight relative to FdL, who will carry 2.5kg less that the set weight from last week. Postman's Daughter was consistent before her 8th last week and might be ready for a break, Fleur de Lune seems to be coming on and should be well set for this despite the run last week. A little softness underfoot should not concern either runner, FdL goes better at Ellerslie. Both are contenders here, but Fleur de Lune is the better of the two, I am still not sure she will be able to better Green Supreme given the similar weights the two will carry.
Vonusti is the other Group 1 winner in the race (Unless Time Keeper makes it in), he is not really in that Group 1 form, and has not really been as consistent since Boxing Day. The distance he has run over has gone up and down over the last few months, he is pretty well weighted at 55.5kg and should be set for 1600m right now, he is always a danger at Ellerslie.
Others who stand out include Justanexcuse who seems to be getting back to close to his best form. He has been carrying significantly more since the Coupland's Mile which was a comparable weight. Most of his experience is going left but he did win well under a big weight last start. Might be one for odds if the rain comes. He meets Green Supreme relatively 1kg better off than when the two met last with Green Supreme winning by 1 length, is that enough to make this interesting?
It has been about 18 months since Atom Cat won his last race. However he might be worth considering if the conditions take a turn down. He enjoys Ellerslie, has a cosy barrier 4th draw, and has a decent 2nd up record. Actually most of Atom Cat's victories have come early in campaigns, so the resuming 4th possibly showed some promise as it relates to this race. He is carrying 53.5kg in this field which is a very significant light weight.
Of the Richard Collett trained runners I am leaning towards Riotous, he has a weight advantage over his stablemate Alegrio and is drawn better to really compete. Both have similar Ellerslie records, and I imagine that if it is wet the weight advantage should equalise them. I really enjoyed the win here last start, I would stay away if wet, but 52kg compares well to the second here during Auckland Cup week.
Steel Giant is a pretty good horse to only carry 52kg here. A course and distance win on a rain effected track was decent but the field was ripped up with scratchings that day. I wouldn't consider him on a wet track, the draw is a put off and at weights Justanexcuse is effectively dropping the same amount after beating him soundly last start.
Sum Up has been pretty good this season. 1600m is probably short of his best distance, but at weight on a wet track might give some value. This would be by far the biggest win of his career, but he has gone close in decent races and was not a disgrace at Group 1 level. He likes it right handed and recent performances at Ellerslie have shown merit.
Jetset Lad was another I liked, but was put off by the draw. 1600m should really suit, he can factor, but I cant see him winning.
When it comes down to making picks I really think it will depend on how fit Jimmy Choux is and how he will carry that big weight. I think he is better here than Veyron because of Veyron's draw, the next biggest threat is Green Supreme (considering I think he is more suited than Fleur de Lune), I am simply not sure how to compare these two runners. Overall record there is no comparison, at the same weight I would like Jimmy all day. In regard to Green Supreme he has still not really faced a challenge on this level, his next biggest challenge was the Wellington Cup recently, before this it was at 3rd at Group 1 level at age 3, although he has been winning fairly handily this prep, the field he will face on Saturday is very strong. He beat a number of runners here last start, but I still feel like despite the Jimmy Choux question marks I have to look his way in this race, he has been there before and is a proven commodity.
First - Jimmy Choux
Second - Green Supreme
Third - Veyron - He is in great form and loves Ellerslie
Fourth - Atom Cat - I like him more if the rain comes.
Thursday 5 April 2012
Are you ready for New Zealand's Weirdest Group 1
This Easter sees Group 1 Racing coming from New Zealand. No, it is not the Easter Handicap, that is the week after Easter for some inexplicable reason. We are going to be looking at Te Aroha for their sole Group 1 race the New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes.
This race is strange, so strap in. This is the only Fillies and Mares specific Group 1 race for those older that 3YO, and strange things occur.
Barinka won this race last year beating Smoulder and Fleur de Lune who both line up again on Saturday. That win was her first and only Group 1 success, she won paying somewhere in the $18 region. She was the most recent in a long line of somewhat unexpected winners of this race. Strange things happen, so don't be afraid to go a bit loose in your selections. Particularly when both those place getter's last year paid over $7. Fixed odds place betting could get a hammering this weekend.
This race features potential up-and-coming mares with bright futures ahead of them, it features older campaigners seeking a last shot at Group 1 success to maybe improve their value as a Broodmare, and other runners who are just in it because it is there.
Need more proof that it is a strange one, going back to 2010 we see another longer shot winner in Juice. She paid $17.60, she was also ridden by Hayden Tinsley, it was also her only Group 1 success. Culminate and Obsession were more favoured as they rounded out the Tirfecta.
Dane Juila was second favourite when breaking this longshot trend in 2009, she beat the favourite. It was her only Group 1 win in New Zealand and only her second overall.
2008 was a normal year for the Breeders Stakes, Special Mission won for James McDonald paying $17.30. Culminate ran her first second and Keepa Cruisin ran for third. You will be surprised to discover this was her only Group 1 win, with her form tailing off following this result starting with an 11th in the Easter Handicap a few weeks later.
In 2007 a mare by the name of Captivate won this race. She was loved by the punters (relatively) paying a only $15.60 for Sam Spratt.
Arlingtonboulevard broke away with Jason Waddell on board in 2006 to claim that years version of the Breeders Stakes, fortunately Salsa ran second and would have paid $19.5 for the win, so successful punters had to accept a small return of $14.70 for their efforts.
You will not believe what Rockabubble paid winning in 2005 when the race was held in March, only $8, making her the first of only two sub $10 winners in the past 7 running's of this race. She finished 18th and 17th respectively in her next two attempts at Group 1 level.
2004 saw Surprize Surprize paying $11.85 despite finishing second in this race in 2003.
The horse who beat Surprize Surprize was called Zirna and paid $8.95 when winning, Surprize Surprize paid a big $6.30 for the place which was not even as large as third placed Rodrigo Rose who paid $7.35 for her place, making that year another sizable trifecta.
Whatever you do, do not back this weekends winner to go the Breeders/Easter Handicap double, the 2002 Breeders Stakes winner finished 14th in the Easter Handicap is another of many not to perform in this next Group 1. Saint Cecile paid $13 winning in 2002. Remember I have not mentioned one winning favourite in the past 9 years of this race. This was actually Saint Cecile's second win in this race as the 2002 victory backed up her 2001 victory (and she still paid $13), for the record in 2001 she was paying, $8.95 and the race was only at Group 2 level that year.
Where does that leave us this year, in the past 10 years we have seen no favourites win, $5.60 (Dane Julia) was the shortest priced winner, only three other horses have won and paid under $10 in the past 10 outings. To give you an idea, in all of the Group 1 races so far this year, Distil, Artistic and Choice Bro are the only winners who paid more that $10, two of those are the most recent two Group 1's of the year. We have seen 5 winners paying $14.70 or more throughout the years (would have loved to round up to $15 then), that is half of the winners. There has been 1 back to back winner (not counting Hayden Tinsley riding back to back winners), and Culiminate has run second twice, also Surprize Surprize ran second and went one better the following year. The only 3YO Filly to win was Special Mission, there have been 6 4YO's to win in the last 10 years, 3 6YO's and the only 5YO was Saint Cecile winning her second time.
So who are the likely candidates to continue this strange run of winners this year? Who fits the profile we have just described? Actually just about all of them.
There are four runners paying less than $10 (Fleur de Lune, Lady Kipling, Say No More, and Xanadu), keep one handy in your multiples as that seems to be the trend).
Other than the emergencies there are six runners paying in excess of $20 (Platinum Princess, Do Ri Mi, No Excuse Maggie, Lady Chaparral, Jeu de Cartes, Acapela).
That leaves six runners in the sweet spot, Postmans Daughter ($12, seems pretty good value), Fazzle ($14), Dating ($14), Floria ($10), Villifye ($10), Smoulder ($16).
What are my selections based on absolutely no analysis other than the last 10 events?
Winner - Smoulder ($16) - in the sweet spot, also doubles as the horse who performed well in this race a year ago.
Second - Lady Kipling ($7.50) - shorter odds runner to go close
Third - Postmans Daughter ($12) - value runner rounding out the trifecta.
Fourth - Fleur de Lune ($6) - the favourite
Maybe it is better to look at this race with a bit more analysis, basically you can expect strange things to happen because there are a lot of chances, we have a big field, and there is not really a clear cut favourite. With the wet forecast for the weekend I am anticipating we will at least see a slow track.(Only the first four are listed in specific order)
Long Shot First Four Contenders
#7 Do Ra Mi (14) $31 & $9 - Hard to know what the best indication of form is, she has not seen a good track since September last year, it is unlikely she will see one this weekend either.
#13 Lady Chaparral (6) $26 & $8 - Not too many have beaten Mufhasa this season, she is one of them. Her form since has not been the strongest, however she has gone well in Te Aroha, her record at Tauranga was likely a factor in the victory over Mufhasa, but this looks too tough.
#14 Jeu de Cartes (21) $21 & $6.50 - The draw is tough on this track, she does seem to go well on rain effected tracks, she has stepped up in quality over her last few and just has not quite reached this level.
#15 Acapela (1) $21 & $6.50 - Good to see Jason Collett back riding. On paper this is a chance, decent form, well drawn, decent record in the wet, has been beginning to step up in quality. I just think the set weight of 57kg will hurt her chances and I like others more.
A first four chance
#12 No Excuse Maggie (7) $33 & $10 - I like this John Barry runner, she was great throughout the winter last prep. She has not really come back in the same form, but she is hard to rule out. She won 4th, 6th and 9th up last prep (4th up on Saturday), her first 3 starts leading into that were 5th, 8th and 7th, this is a much tougher fourth start. Record over 1600m and on wet tracks is good.
#10 Villifye (16) $10 & $3.40 - Looked great last start winning, will have to deal with a big increase in weight in this one, she will handle the rain and looked like an improving mare, but I like the look of others more.
#9 Say No More (20) $7.50 & $2.60 - Say no more is a group one winner this season. She got a sweet draw and trip on that occasion carrying only 52kg. This looks tougher with 57kgs to carry and a wide draw to deal with.
#2 Platinum Princess (12) $31 & $9 - She won the Coupland's Bakeries Mile last year and has a great 1600m record, she has just not really gone on since then in races carrying a set weight. Possibly the draw has not been great in a few of these, and this is similar to the race she won on New Year's day at Ellerslie.
Hard to leave out
#3 Fazzle (15) $14 & $4.50 - That last 200m scares me, she might have a lot of work to do from the draw. She has really come on well over 1400m, and if you knew she would get a decent trip she might be hard to avoid, but I think she will need some luck.
#6 Floria (11) $10 & $3.40 - This just looks like a step up, she will have to carry more weight and possibly deal with a wet track. She is consistent and hard to completely ignore.
#17 Xanadu (9) $7 & $2.50 - I will always have another look at a 3YO in this type of race with the weight allowance. I have been both impressed and disappointed with this filly this year. I think this field is similar to Ellerslie on Boxing Day, yes there are older horses, but there is enough class to make this tough on her.
#4 Dating (4) $14 & $4.50 - The more I looked at her the more I liked her chances. She is a tough omission and from the draw I thought she looked a great chance. I have left her out because she is so inconsistent. When she won that F&M race back in October it looked like she would have a great season, she has just been too up and down to take.
First Four
Fourth - #5 Fleur de Lune (3) $6 & 2 - A lot to like, can she break the favourtie jinx? Well drawn and seems to be back close to her best.
Third - #1 Postmans Daughter (10) $12 & $4 - A strong competitor, consistent and racing in tougher company. Seems to go back and forth in distance, 1600m two starts in a row carrying basically what she carried for second in handicap conditions last start.
Second - #8 Lady Kipling (8) $7.50 & $2.60 - Has had a great year competing gamely in much tougher races. 1600m should suit her, I do have a right handed concern, but she has not been too bad recently.
First - #11 Smoulder (5) $16 & $5 - To take her you need to completely forgive the Tauranga effort, she was favourite, she had a bad day. She has been very good the rest of the year, she possibly has not won as many races as you would like, but she has been consistent. She can bounce back from a good draw here. She fits a lot of the history of this race in recent years.
This race is strange, so strap in. This is the only Fillies and Mares specific Group 1 race for those older that 3YO, and strange things occur.
Barinka won this race last year beating Smoulder and Fleur de Lune who both line up again on Saturday. That win was her first and only Group 1 success, she won paying somewhere in the $18 region. She was the most recent in a long line of somewhat unexpected winners of this race. Strange things happen, so don't be afraid to go a bit loose in your selections. Particularly when both those place getter's last year paid over $7. Fixed odds place betting could get a hammering this weekend.
This race features potential up-and-coming mares with bright futures ahead of them, it features older campaigners seeking a last shot at Group 1 success to maybe improve their value as a Broodmare, and other runners who are just in it because it is there.
Need more proof that it is a strange one, going back to 2010 we see another longer shot winner in Juice. She paid $17.60, she was also ridden by Hayden Tinsley, it was also her only Group 1 success. Culminate and Obsession were more favoured as they rounded out the Tirfecta.
Dane Juila was second favourite when breaking this longshot trend in 2009, she beat the favourite. It was her only Group 1 win in New Zealand and only her second overall.
2008 was a normal year for the Breeders Stakes, Special Mission won for James McDonald paying $17.30. Culminate ran her first second and Keepa Cruisin ran for third. You will be surprised to discover this was her only Group 1 win, with her form tailing off following this result starting with an 11th in the Easter Handicap a few weeks later.
In 2007 a mare by the name of Captivate won this race. She was loved by the punters (relatively) paying a only $15.60 for Sam Spratt.
Arlingtonboulevard broke away with Jason Waddell on board in 2006 to claim that years version of the Breeders Stakes, fortunately Salsa ran second and would have paid $19.5 for the win, so successful punters had to accept a small return of $14.70 for their efforts.
You will not believe what Rockabubble paid winning in 2005 when the race was held in March, only $8, making her the first of only two sub $10 winners in the past 7 running's of this race. She finished 18th and 17th respectively in her next two attempts at Group 1 level.
2004 saw Surprize Surprize paying $11.85 despite finishing second in this race in 2003.
The horse who beat Surprize Surprize was called Zirna and paid $8.95 when winning, Surprize Surprize paid a big $6.30 for the place which was not even as large as third placed Rodrigo Rose who paid $7.35 for her place, making that year another sizable trifecta.
Whatever you do, do not back this weekends winner to go the Breeders/Easter Handicap double, the 2002 Breeders Stakes winner finished 14th in the Easter Handicap is another of many not to perform in this next Group 1. Saint Cecile paid $13 winning in 2002. Remember I have not mentioned one winning favourite in the past 9 years of this race. This was actually Saint Cecile's second win in this race as the 2002 victory backed up her 2001 victory (and she still paid $13), for the record in 2001 she was paying, $8.95 and the race was only at Group 2 level that year.
Where does that leave us this year, in the past 10 years we have seen no favourites win, $5.60 (Dane Julia) was the shortest priced winner, only three other horses have won and paid under $10 in the past 10 outings. To give you an idea, in all of the Group 1 races so far this year, Distil, Artistic and Choice Bro are the only winners who paid more that $10, two of those are the most recent two Group 1's of the year. We have seen 5 winners paying $14.70 or more throughout the years (would have loved to round up to $15 then), that is half of the winners. There has been 1 back to back winner (not counting Hayden Tinsley riding back to back winners), and Culiminate has run second twice, also Surprize Surprize ran second and went one better the following year. The only 3YO Filly to win was Special Mission, there have been 6 4YO's to win in the last 10 years, 3 6YO's and the only 5YO was Saint Cecile winning her second time.
So who are the likely candidates to continue this strange run of winners this year? Who fits the profile we have just described? Actually just about all of them.
There are four runners paying less than $10 (Fleur de Lune, Lady Kipling, Say No More, and Xanadu), keep one handy in your multiples as that seems to be the trend).
Other than the emergencies there are six runners paying in excess of $20 (Platinum Princess, Do Ri Mi, No Excuse Maggie, Lady Chaparral, Jeu de Cartes, Acapela).
That leaves six runners in the sweet spot, Postmans Daughter ($12, seems pretty good value), Fazzle ($14), Dating ($14), Floria ($10), Villifye ($10), Smoulder ($16).
What are my selections based on absolutely no analysis other than the last 10 events?
Winner - Smoulder ($16) - in the sweet spot, also doubles as the horse who performed well in this race a year ago.
Second - Lady Kipling ($7.50) - shorter odds runner to go close
Third - Postmans Daughter ($12) - value runner rounding out the trifecta.
Fourth - Fleur de Lune ($6) - the favourite
Maybe it is better to look at this race with a bit more analysis, basically you can expect strange things to happen because there are a lot of chances, we have a big field, and there is not really a clear cut favourite. With the wet forecast for the weekend I am anticipating we will at least see a slow track.(Only the first four are listed in specific order)
Long Shot First Four Contenders
#7 Do Ra Mi (14) $31 & $9 - Hard to know what the best indication of form is, she has not seen a good track since September last year, it is unlikely she will see one this weekend either.
#13 Lady Chaparral (6) $26 & $8 - Not too many have beaten Mufhasa this season, she is one of them. Her form since has not been the strongest, however she has gone well in Te Aroha, her record at Tauranga was likely a factor in the victory over Mufhasa, but this looks too tough.
#14 Jeu de Cartes (21) $21 & $6.50 - The draw is tough on this track, she does seem to go well on rain effected tracks, she has stepped up in quality over her last few and just has not quite reached this level.
#15 Acapela (1) $21 & $6.50 - Good to see Jason Collett back riding. On paper this is a chance, decent form, well drawn, decent record in the wet, has been beginning to step up in quality. I just think the set weight of 57kg will hurt her chances and I like others more.
A first four chance
#12 No Excuse Maggie (7) $33 & $10 - I like this John Barry runner, she was great throughout the winter last prep. She has not really come back in the same form, but she is hard to rule out. She won 4th, 6th and 9th up last prep (4th up on Saturday), her first 3 starts leading into that were 5th, 8th and 7th, this is a much tougher fourth start. Record over 1600m and on wet tracks is good.
#10 Villifye (16) $10 & $3.40 - Looked great last start winning, will have to deal with a big increase in weight in this one, she will handle the rain and looked like an improving mare, but I like the look of others more.
#9 Say No More (20) $7.50 & $2.60 - Say no more is a group one winner this season. She got a sweet draw and trip on that occasion carrying only 52kg. This looks tougher with 57kgs to carry and a wide draw to deal with.
#2 Platinum Princess (12) $31 & $9 - She won the Coupland's Bakeries Mile last year and has a great 1600m record, she has just not really gone on since then in races carrying a set weight. Possibly the draw has not been great in a few of these, and this is similar to the race she won on New Year's day at Ellerslie.
Hard to leave out
#3 Fazzle (15) $14 & $4.50 - That last 200m scares me, she might have a lot of work to do from the draw. She has really come on well over 1400m, and if you knew she would get a decent trip she might be hard to avoid, but I think she will need some luck.
#6 Floria (11) $10 & $3.40 - This just looks like a step up, she will have to carry more weight and possibly deal with a wet track. She is consistent and hard to completely ignore.
#17 Xanadu (9) $7 & $2.50 - I will always have another look at a 3YO in this type of race with the weight allowance. I have been both impressed and disappointed with this filly this year. I think this field is similar to Ellerslie on Boxing Day, yes there are older horses, but there is enough class to make this tough on her.
#4 Dating (4) $14 & $4.50 - The more I looked at her the more I liked her chances. She is a tough omission and from the draw I thought she looked a great chance. I have left her out because she is so inconsistent. When she won that F&M race back in October it looked like she would have a great season, she has just been too up and down to take.
First Four
Fourth - #5 Fleur de Lune (3) $6 & 2 - A lot to like, can she break the favourtie jinx? Well drawn and seems to be back close to her best.
Third - #1 Postmans Daughter (10) $12 & $4 - A strong competitor, consistent and racing in tougher company. Seems to go back and forth in distance, 1600m two starts in a row carrying basically what she carried for second in handicap conditions last start.
Second - #8 Lady Kipling (8) $7.50 & $2.60 - Has had a great year competing gamely in much tougher races. 1600m should suit her, I do have a right handed concern, but she has not been too bad recently.
First - #11 Smoulder (5) $16 & $5 - To take her you need to completely forgive the Tauranga effort, she was favourite, she had a bad day. She has been very good the rest of the year, she possibly has not won as many races as you would like, but she has been consistent. She can bounce back from a good draw here. She fits a lot of the history of this race in recent years.
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