I am well aware that it is 2011 and not 1811 and if it rains there are plenty of things which can be done outside the house while remaining indoors, but a nice wet weekend would be an excellent excuse not to leave the couch this weekend. It is an amazing weekend for sport and racing, starting tonight at Moonee Valley with group and listed racing and an anticipated Sepoy vs More Joyous battle and the JRA cup featuring several Cup hopefuls, Saturday has impressive Group 1 Racing from Sydney, Jimmy Choux going for two straight in Hastings and important Rugby World Cup action, then Sunday back to Melbourne for the Turnbull Stakes as well as the All Blacks and the NRL grand final featuring the New Zealand Warriors. A tip for the fellas out there, send flowers to your Wife and/or Girlfriend today because you might not be on speaking terms on Monday.
I wanted to touch on some of the key races I am looking forward to this weekend as well as attempt to put together my first New Zealand 3YO Power Rankings. I will start with Hawkes Bay racing tomorrow.
It is the third New Zealand Group 1 of the season the Do-we-have-a-sponsor-yet Spring Classic (brought to you by New Zealand Bloodstock Insurance apparently), formerly New Zealand's richest weight for age this years addition will be run over 2040m for a healthy $300k. When Jimmy Choux won the Windsor Park Plate many pundits believed it would be his last race in New Zealand before the Cox Plate and others believed it would be his last race in general before the Cox Plate, however word is he pulled up nicely after that and is ready for this. Although I would have loved to see him at Flemington this Sunday from a fans point of view I can understand the desire to give him another run at home over the Cox plate distance. Not that the connections would at all be concerned; as a fan who is trying to get a feel for how he compares to other Cox Plate hopefuls I am not sure what kind of message it sends if he is not able to win this race and it would surely effect his favouritism.
Jimmy Choux will start as a very short priced favourite, I am still a little concerned, I am not sure this race is that easy, and there are potentially other horses more naturally suited to this distance. I think the mile might be Jimmy's best distance and any wins at or above 2000m simply point to how talented and gutsy he really is. Do I seem him winning this? Well, yes, all evidence certainly suggests that he should, but It will be interesting to see how horses who won last season over 2000m in Group 1 or 2 races go in this race, Red Ruler, Hold it Harvey, and the biggest danger Booming. There are also a handful here who I like the look of, but not sure how well they will handle the WFA conditions, Back in Black and Seaflyte are not without their merits.
My Selections
1st - Jimmy Choux - simply has the talent, ran home strongly over 1600m, is going on to the Cox Plate so should win this.
2nd - Booming - This is his distance, looked good at the end of the Windsor Park Plate, could give Jimmy a tough race.
3rd - Hold it Harvey - from the draw he could find himself in a similar position that he did for the Windsor Park Plate he came home strongly behind two very good in form horses in that race.
4th - Dawn Ghost - tempting to take Red Ruler, but I didn't really like what I saw in Hawkes Bay last start and I don't really want to go chalk, so I think Dawn Ghost who is only carrying 1kg more from a pretty good fifth here last start could be interesting, particularly given all the horses who beat her that day are carrying significantly more today.
Other racing I am interested in from Hawkes Bay starting with the small but talented field in the first race, no doubt a few of these will have their sights set on the New Zealand Cup. Royal Queen in race 3 looks set to complete a Hawkes Bay hat trick, she won so well on the second day it is hard to see her losing this despite the outside barrier draw, she could lead again and we could see a similar performance. Race 5 features He's Remarkable who will be more than a warm favourite if he runs in this race, building towards the Coupland's Bakery Mile no doubt. The Group 3 Tradertracks Stakes could be his destination, however he will face some tough competition in that race, Twlight Savings would appear the one to beat after the way she ran home here last time.
I missed out a very interesting race, but that is because I wanted to focus on it a bit more closely and give you my 3YO Power Rankings.
There are obviously a lot of large races over the year aimed at 3YO's. The thing which makes a racehorse Power Rankings more challenging compared to a Rugby Would Cup Power Rankings is that not all horses are created equal, each has a different goal, there may be 3YO's who have not started a race yet who may be Powerful by Derby time, and there may be 3YO's who although targeting a 1600m race coming up may be more natural sprinters or longer distance horses. So this really comes down to buzz, feel, and general impression of their quality. There should be no suprises who is rated number 1.
Number10 - Savabil - I rate this horse and should normally have it higher, but I can't find any information about where he is and when we might see him again. However based on a strong 2YO campagin he needs to be on this list.
Number 9 - Whoshe - Forgive the last start, had she won she would have been higher on this list, but she looked quality before this.
Number 8 - Artistic - I have already written about her performance in the Bonecrusher Stakes, but it was still impressive.
Number 7 - Estrato - Winner of 3 of 8 including one listed race, raced well in
top 2YO company, a winner well in his second start as a 3YO.
Number 6 - Kasumi -Winner of past two, both at listed level.
Number 5 - Testa Secret - Expected to run second to Anabandana last start, and did, can't penalise that, second to number 3 on this list before that, a series of solid performances in big races throughout her career.
Number 4 - Burgundy - Sure he has only one start, but there was a lot of hype about that, he is second favourite for the 2000 Guineas.
Number 3 - Dowager Queen - Won her last 3 in New Zealand, represented herself well in Australia in the winter.
Number 2 - Antonio Lombardo - Won 4 of 10 starts, won very strongly in his only start at age 3.
Number 1 - Anabandana - The top 2 Year Old from last season who already looks like she could be the top 3YO.
So, yes, I think Antonio Lombardo is going to win the Hawkes Bay Guineas, I think Ginner Hart and Prestigious Miss are interesting, they couldn't crack this list because I am not sure they have accomplished enough at a high enough level to be considered Powerful under my interpretation, the other horse from this list in this race is Estrato, he has a tough draw to overcome, but I was impressed how he kept fighting for victory last start, I imagine Peter McKay is pleased with these two 3YO's.
Australian Thoughts
Moonee Valley
The JRA Cup was set to feature Southern Speed which would have been interesting, but it still features an interesting group of horses, I like to see these races as horses start to stand out for the Spring. Innocent Lady is having an Australian start and should be interesting to watch.
The Mangikato Stakes is the interesting one to watch, Sepoy was a horse who made you say "wow!", and More Joyous is clearly class, I am just excited to watch, but think the lighter weighted Sepoy will come out on top.
Zabeelionaire is running in the 7th race. I don't have any thoughts, I just think it is an outstanding name.
Randwick
Both the Epsom and the Metropolitan handicaps should be excellent. I was hoping to see Kings Rose race again, but the field for the Epsom is still top notch. The interesting this about this race is the weight difference between Sincero with 57kgs, and Pinker Pinker carrying 52.5kg. The weights are very interesting, every horse numbered 5 or above is carrying 52.5kg's. The Metrop field has considerable class, this looks like a top class, I am not sure anyone knows what to expect, the winner will deserve this Group 1. Favourites in this race come from the top of the book and the lower weights, it should be very interesting.
I have already shared my thoughts on Dowager Queen, she may be a highly ranked 3YO, but I am not sure she is quite at the class to take out this Group 1 race. If she does she probably goes to the top spot of the next power rankings and really proves her class.
Flemington
I always like the Bart Cummings, I think it is a good build up to the Melbourne Cup and even though on the face of it the main contenders are not present I think a win here could really jump someone up the rankings. Harris Tweed will be weighed down with a massive 60kg. However with Showcause carrying 54kg it is an excellent chance to put his foot forward for the Melbourne Cup, he won the Avondale cup at this weight and with good 3200m form I think he would like to go well in this.
Keep the Peace is back. She has a horrible draw to overcome, and is probably not quite at her best, however she has placed in Group races in Melbourne in the past and I am definitely a fan. Smoulder is another horse I always gravitate to when she runs. I thought she was very unlucky in the Avondale Guineas and possibly could have gone on to do something in the Auckland Derby until she was scratched, I think we would look at her chances very differently had that occurred and is one that could prove her merit in Australia.
The Turnbull Stakes is a good example of what is great about Victorian racing in the spring. We start with nominations and an idea of who will run in the Cox Plate and the big cups, as the spring goes on we get more information about who is in form, who looks good, and who could surprise. This is another one of the races that was taken out by So You Think last year. This is a very strong feild and will reveal a lot more, I have shared my thoughts about some of these runners in the past. This is an excellent field, I imagine that December Draw will be favoured, but wont have it easy when you look at the likes of Southern Speed for whom this may be to far; Glass Harmonium will be liked by many, as will Rekindled Interest; if you like December Draw it is hard not to take a second look at At First Sight; there were a couple of horses who finished off the Underwood greatly in Playing God and Precedence; Linton is probably more suited to this distance than his earlier races this spring; and I have not even mentioned Efficient yet, he will be better for that first start and won this race 2 years (and 2 starts) ago. To pick one I would have to go for Playing God, this draw is much better, and he was unlucky in the running of the Underwood, he will carry 1.5kg less and an extra 200m would be suitable.
Those are my thoughts and what I am looking forward to on this long 'wet' weekend, enjoy the racing!
Friday 30 September 2011
Monday 26 September 2011
How long is too long?
I have several questions about what I saw at Ellerslie racecourse on Saturday. Here are the facts, I witnessed all of this in person through slightly intoxicated eyes from the top level of the Ellerslie stand on Saturday. Before Race 5, the Just Juice Bonecrusher Stakes, as the 3YO's were getting loaded into the barriers something happened, it was something I cannot remember seeing happen in the past, but it must be a reasonably frequent occurrence because a spare Bridle was available. The occurrence I refer to; it appeared that the bridle on number 11 Vuela (I am pretty sure it was Vuela) broke (or something happened with it to require a change, I could not hear the commentary at the time), the barrier attendants did a great job of steadying the Filly and getting a rope over her head, fortunately there was another bridle handy and they were able to get this on. As this happened all other horses had been loaded into the barrier stalls and were standing, waiting, except for number 10 Artistic who was walking around calmly; at this point I said to a friend "I would feel very comfortable if I was on number 10 about now.". There was a sizable length delay, the horse seemed reasonably calm throughout, as did all of the horses standing in the barriers, then the race started and Artistic ran home from last for victory, a stand out performance on a day where there certainly seemed to be an edge to those prepared to lead or race on the speed, Vuela meanwhile finished last.
My questions, how much benefit was it for Artistic to be the last into the barrier and not have to stand still in a stall for what seemed like at least 5 minutes? How much did it hinder the chances of other horses to be in a stall for that time? Now the bigger question, should Vuela have been scratched? Knowing that she went on to finish last it might seem obvious, but of course no one knew that at the time. I have seen horses scratched because they refuse to enter the barriers and are causing delay, of course that could also be to prevent injury and unnecessary stress to the horse, in this case the Filly seemed to be calm and was well controlled by the staff present. In lieu of scratching the horse should the other horses have been released from the barriers and reloaded? yes this would have caused further delay, but would it have improved their chances? Was the outcome of this race effected by the delay and the location of the horses at the time?
What can we take away from this race? I guess it depends on how you feel about the questions asked above, Artistic certainly looked impressive, did the benefit of walking around and not cooling down in the barrier improve her chances? I cannot help but feel it did, I am not saying Vuela should have been scratched, but given the circumstances I am not going to take too much out of this race when I make my selections for any of the upcoming 3YO races.
I have been trying to get a feeling for how I feel about any of the 3YO's I saw on Saturday and where they rank, so will come back later in the week with my New Zealand Three Year Old Power Rankings.
In regard to the rest of the day at Ellerslie, I thought it was fantastic, Whips and Spurs once again lived up to expectations, the racing was entertaining, and to finish the day with an All Blacks and Warriors victories was a nice cherry on top.
My questions, how much benefit was it for Artistic to be the last into the barrier and not have to stand still in a stall for what seemed like at least 5 minutes? How much did it hinder the chances of other horses to be in a stall for that time? Now the bigger question, should Vuela have been scratched? Knowing that she went on to finish last it might seem obvious, but of course no one knew that at the time. I have seen horses scratched because they refuse to enter the barriers and are causing delay, of course that could also be to prevent injury and unnecessary stress to the horse, in this case the Filly seemed to be calm and was well controlled by the staff present. In lieu of scratching the horse should the other horses have been released from the barriers and reloaded? yes this would have caused further delay, but would it have improved their chances? Was the outcome of this race effected by the delay and the location of the horses at the time?
What can we take away from this race? I guess it depends on how you feel about the questions asked above, Artistic certainly looked impressive, did the benefit of walking around and not cooling down in the barrier improve her chances? I cannot help but feel it did, I am not saying Vuela should have been scratched, but given the circumstances I am not going to take too much out of this race when I make my selections for any of the upcoming 3YO races.
I have been trying to get a feeling for how I feel about any of the 3YO's I saw on Saturday and where they rank, so will come back later in the week with my New Zealand Three Year Old Power Rankings.
In regard to the rest of the day at Ellerslie, I thought it was fantastic, Whips and Spurs once again lived up to expectations, the racing was entertaining, and to finish the day with an All Blacks and Warriors victories was a nice cherry on top.
Thursday 22 September 2011
Ellerslie and Whips'n'Spurs 24 September
There is something about attending a race meeting at Ellerslie Racecourse which makes it feel like a big occasion. I always look forward to walking through those old-style-gate-house turnstiles, past the manicured gardens towards the two big stands, excitement building as you jostle your way past the birdcage and the six other people in attendance for that first view of the track where it feels like you have to look up to see it, the bass filled baritone voice of George Simon crackling over the loud speaker, sheltered out of the wind sitting in the sunny stands. It always feels like a bigger occasion where you can rely on strong racing.
This Saturday's Life Education Trust race day would normally be a more causal affair, like the old days (of 5 years ago) I would attempt to entice a group along by bringing a chili-bin with beer and snacks, of course this is no longer allowed (I can understand the Club's point of view, but I still miss it), so now if I had nothing else to do I would simply go along with the Girlfriend for a couple of races, or watch on TV while fighting for the flat remote to flick away from Keeping up with the Kardashians or a Jersey Shore marathon.
However, this Saturday has all the makings of an excellent day out. The racing is not the strongest you will see at Ellerslie this year, but a Whips'n'Spurs party is always a good way to get a group together, to create a festival atmosphere, and to get people involved who would normally not be that interested in the Racing. The Spring Whips and Spurs party is normally reserved for Great Northern day, but the Ellerslie Club has smartly moved it to coincide with the All Blacks vs France match to decide the winner of Pool A in the Rugby World Cup. These are always great events, music, food, drinks to lubricate the social scene, racing and this Saturday Rugby on the big screen after the race day. As a veteran of many Whips and Spurs Parties over the past few years I can say it is always a great day out, and after a quick look at the form guide of both the racing and the rugby, it is safe to say that the racing may be a lot closer than the rugby happening across town.
To help or maybe hinder those attending Whips and Spurs this weekend, here are some thoughts on the races. I have a distinct memory of last years Life Education race day, however after significant Googling I have not actually been able to confirm if any of my memory actually occurred. There are two feature races of the day, both listed races for 3YO's over 1400m, the Bonecrusher Stakes and the Soliloquy Lodge Stakes for the fillies. I recall for this day last year there was a $1,000,000 pick six, although I have been unable to confirm this I am pretty sure of this fact, I also seem to think that there was some kind of bonus on course for placing a bet on the Pick Six over a certain amount, again either Google or my memory has failed me because I have not found confirmation and I am less confident in my memory of this point. I convinced my work colleagues to put together a bit of a syndicate and have a small flutter on the Pick Six to the tune of $100, we went to the pub after work on the Friday and hotly debated the form guide taking our selections on each race. The Bonecrusher stakes was won Mckee trained Hoofit by the smallest of margins , despite this we were still alive. The problem was not until the Soliloquy, it seemed like every Pick Six and most of the punters in the rest of New Zealand were on Dating as an anchor, and after her run the week before it seemed like a logical conclusion; in the end it took only 1 minute and 33 seconds and the hopes of a million dollar pay day were shattered for us and thousands of others when Singapore Sling narrowly beat Dating.
My first impression of the race day is that it will be tough to find winners despite the relatively small fields, in most races you can make a case for 6 or 7 runners, and in others make a case against most of the runners. Obviously there is sill around 48 hours until racing starts, right now the track is listed as a Heavy 10, which will suit a lot of the runners, however with no rain forecast and high winds it is hard to know what to expect for Saturday. With these fields this feels like the kind of day for upsets, or several horses closely grouped around favouritism, I can see this been a long day punting for me personally where I do not expect to do that well.
Race 1 - Newmarket Rotary Club 1200 - Rating 80 over 1200m
Good start to the day, a strong field of sprinters at this level. It is hard to look past Enyaar in this one, always close over her first 4 starts, she has the distance and R80 form as well as experience running in top fields. The one who might surprise or be more likeable if the track does become dry is number 8 Scottish Mist, two top wins on the course during the Christmas Carnival.
1st - 1 - Enyaar
2nd - 5 - Harry's Pal - Racing well at R70, C and D win last start, like the claim in the wet.
3rd - 3 - Cap Eden Roc - Appears to have the form, and will go well fresh, concerned about the wet.
4th - 8 - Scottish Mist
Race 2 - Rotary Club of Auckland East 2400 - Rating 80 over 2400m
I liked the look of the top 4 in the book for this one, in the end I had to take the utla-consistent Magna Carter who has not finished worse than 5th in his last 7 races. I think when you combine the form with the track conditions and track record it just looks like a winner.
1st - 3- Magna Carter
2nd - 2 - Stagehand - 2nd at R90 level last week, won on the course R80 prior to this.
3rd - 1 - Intransigent - Withought the claim I would be more concerned.
4th - 4 - George Neil - First start right handed and first time to Ellerslie, simply seems to be have the next best form.
Race 3 - The Warf Function Centre 2100 - R70 SW+P over 2100m
I didn't like this race at all, I got the impression that a lot of these will be running in R70 races for a while longer; but I guess someone has to win, I ended up circling about 6 of the 12 runners, I narrowed it down to these four.
1st - 4 - Toby Cee - Back in class with an allowance.
2nd - 1 - Sand Jewell - Consistent lead up, but thought the extra weight may hurt.
3rd - 9 - Staxa Stamina - Lightweight, some concern about track conditions but seemed to be going forward in her career.
4th - 12 - Tekeela - Definitely a candidate to get strong support from the Whips and Spurs crowd.
Race 4 - Remuera Fisheries Mitchelson Cup - Open Handicap over 2200m
I have many questions, I go past Remuera Fisheries most days on my way to work, I see a framed picture on the wall of a racehorse in full flight, I have always wondered who the horse is, and who owns that shop. Secondly, who is Mitchelson? Thirdly, does this cup actually exist, or is it a figurative cup to make the race sound cooler.
Either way a strong field is lining up for this "cup", I am very keen to see how Sterling Prince goes, it clearly has had the most success out of this field, but maybe the wet will be too much to overcome. I really like the way that I'm Isaac goes at Ellerslie, 3,1,2*,4,1 in his last 5 starts the 2nd was on this day last year. It was hard to leave out Halls, but there is a big question mark, in 65 starts it has never started at Ellerslie, and only had 3 runs right handed, granted it placed in one of those, but definitely left a question in my mind.
1st - 2 - I'm Isaac
2nd - 7 - The Strutter - A lot to like, the track record, the wet record and the level of competition in recent times.
3rd - 3 - Sterling Prince
4th - 9 - The Missing Link - Also ran in this last year, he won, and thanks to the allowance will only carry 52kg this weekend.
Race 5 - Just Juice Bonecrusher Stakes - (listed) 3YO Set Weights - 1400m
I am not sure a lot of people will be on Fort Lincoln today. His one run in a similar race was troubled, his only other 1400m start was at Group 1 level, and again he just managed to stay within 20 lengths of Anabandana, we all know how good she is. Maybe he is not a 1400m horse, but the last 2 starts at Ellerslie he flew home over 1200m, I think he deserves another look. Maybe it is the Ellerslie factor, of the $597k of stake winnings (most coming from the Karaka Millions) he won as a 2YO, he won $589,700 at Ellerslie. Maybe he is a slow starter, he won 2nd up as a 2YO, but that was in a 4 horse field, he didn't place again until his 5th start; counting last week and a 2nd place in a trial, Fort Lincoln might be ready to take this out. Of the 10 starts, 5 of those have been at listed level or above (including the Karaka Millions which is a major race), I would rather bet on a horse racing at that level than one who might have looked good winning a $5k race at this stage of their respective careers.
1st - 1 - Fort Lincoln
2nd - 3 - Field of Dreams - Consistent in the short career to date, should be able to run 1400m well.
3rd - 2 - Dollario - Winner of 3 who can handle wet tracks, proven over 1400m
4th - 5 - Randall - Winner last start over 1400m
Race 6 - Ray White Real Estate - MDN over 1400m
I am not sure I like the term Real Estate, can they not call it Property? is it so you know it is not Fake Estate? This looks like a pretty strong maiden field today, it seems like there is potential to go up a few grades this spring for a lot of these runners, I think that number 3 Whistling Straights will be the one to break maidens today, although last start was his worst result the consistency he has shown to date is what I am looking at here.
1st - 3 - Whistling Straights
2nd - 2 - Saskee - Looks about the next best, the claim looks like it will help a horse who goes well in slower conditions.
3rd - 9 - Love the consistency over the distance with the claim in this race.
4th - 13 - Lady Gaga- This is the Whips'n'Spurs bet of the day, how many drunk chicks will see this name and have a punt.
Race 7 - Soliloquy Stakes - (listed) 3YO Fillies Set Weights over 1400m
Whoshe might be the top 3YO on display today in Auckland, she has won 3 from 6 including a stakes race at Ellerslie over 1400m, winner of a mixed stakes race last start she should have too much for the rest of these fillies.
1st - 1 Whoshe
2nd - 3 - River Nymph - 3rd in a stakes race last start, seems to need another 200m.
3rd - 11 - Perfect Katch - Looks like an improver who has been looking for a bit more distance
4th - 6 - Ready Steady - Fresh, but up to this class, 1400m should be good, the draw might make life difficult.
Race 8 - Life Education Ambassador Terenzo Bozzone 1200 - Open Handicap over 1200m
A great 1200m race, a lot of form on the course and over the distance in the wet to pick from, making it a hard decision for a race with only a field of 9.
1st - 1 - Rusty Devil - The one to beat, ace draw, amazing in the wet, at Ellerslie and over 1200m.
2nd - 6 - Pure Crusing - Undefeated on the course, seems to win on any surface, in the money 7/10 so far
3rd - 3 - Kaap Kruis - I am glad it is George Simon and not me who has to pronounce this all race.
4th 2 - Art Beat - It is hard to leave out in the wet on this track.
Race 9 - Leila McDonald Rating 90 - Rating 90 over 1600
Only 9 starters for a $30,000 1600m R90 race at Ellerslie? Well they have done well with a high quality field.
1st - 2 - Asgoodasitgets - Tough call, it just looks to be on the rise and capable of winning on the course over the distance. Good 2nd up and only once out of the top 4 in 15 starts.
2nd - 1 - Sircross - Didn't he win this exact race 4 starts back?
3rd - 3 - Headsup - Better for the last start, ran in tough competition all last season, however had best success when he dropped down to R90 and Open races.
4th - 5 - Toughasim - Very good on a wet track, seems to look good over the course and distance.
Race 10 - Kim Hutchison - Fabulous at 50 1400 - Rating 70 over 1400m
I picked his by process of elimination, simply went down crossing of runners who I thought couldn't win this race. Beau Casual is having his 114th start, looking for win number 10, will he get it? most likely not, but I get the impression anything could happen here.
1st - 4 - Mangaroa Flyer - Close in 5 starts, looks like 1600m is too far at this stage.
2nd - 5 - Pogue - How good has Opie Bosson been riding recently? Pogue has been running in top competition, so possibly looks good for a win here.
3rd - 8 - Thornbirds - has placed in last 2 when probably capable of going 200m further.
4th - 10 - Pure Platinum - Looks like an imporver who will suit 1400m.
I cannot wait for this weekend, Whips and Spurs will be awesome, France will lose, and I hope that is not my only correct prediction.
This Saturday's Life Education Trust race day would normally be a more causal affair, like the old days (of 5 years ago) I would attempt to entice a group along by bringing a chili-bin with beer and snacks, of course this is no longer allowed (I can understand the Club's point of view, but I still miss it), so now if I had nothing else to do I would simply go along with the Girlfriend for a couple of races, or watch on TV while fighting for the flat remote to flick away from Keeping up with the Kardashians or a Jersey Shore marathon.
However, this Saturday has all the makings of an excellent day out. The racing is not the strongest you will see at Ellerslie this year, but a Whips'n'Spurs party is always a good way to get a group together, to create a festival atmosphere, and to get people involved who would normally not be that interested in the Racing. The Spring Whips and Spurs party is normally reserved for Great Northern day, but the Ellerslie Club has smartly moved it to coincide with the All Blacks vs France match to decide the winner of Pool A in the Rugby World Cup. These are always great events, music, food, drinks to lubricate the social scene, racing and this Saturday Rugby on the big screen after the race day. As a veteran of many Whips and Spurs Parties over the past few years I can say it is always a great day out, and after a quick look at the form guide of both the racing and the rugby, it is safe to say that the racing may be a lot closer than the rugby happening across town.
To help or maybe hinder those attending Whips and Spurs this weekend, here are some thoughts on the races. I have a distinct memory of last years Life Education race day, however after significant Googling I have not actually been able to confirm if any of my memory actually occurred. There are two feature races of the day, both listed races for 3YO's over 1400m, the Bonecrusher Stakes and the Soliloquy Lodge Stakes for the fillies. I recall for this day last year there was a $1,000,000 pick six, although I have been unable to confirm this I am pretty sure of this fact, I also seem to think that there was some kind of bonus on course for placing a bet on the Pick Six over a certain amount, again either Google or my memory has failed me because I have not found confirmation and I am less confident in my memory of this point. I convinced my work colleagues to put together a bit of a syndicate and have a small flutter on the Pick Six to the tune of $100, we went to the pub after work on the Friday and hotly debated the form guide taking our selections on each race. The Bonecrusher stakes was won Mckee trained Hoofit by the smallest of margins , despite this we were still alive. The problem was not until the Soliloquy, it seemed like every Pick Six and most of the punters in the rest of New Zealand were on Dating as an anchor, and after her run the week before it seemed like a logical conclusion; in the end it took only 1 minute and 33 seconds and the hopes of a million dollar pay day were shattered for us and thousands of others when Singapore Sling narrowly beat Dating.
My first impression of the race day is that it will be tough to find winners despite the relatively small fields, in most races you can make a case for 6 or 7 runners, and in others make a case against most of the runners. Obviously there is sill around 48 hours until racing starts, right now the track is listed as a Heavy 10, which will suit a lot of the runners, however with no rain forecast and high winds it is hard to know what to expect for Saturday. With these fields this feels like the kind of day for upsets, or several horses closely grouped around favouritism, I can see this been a long day punting for me personally where I do not expect to do that well.
Race 1 - Newmarket Rotary Club 1200 - Rating 80 over 1200m
Good start to the day, a strong field of sprinters at this level. It is hard to look past Enyaar in this one, always close over her first 4 starts, she has the distance and R80 form as well as experience running in top fields. The one who might surprise or be more likeable if the track does become dry is number 8 Scottish Mist, two top wins on the course during the Christmas Carnival.
1st - 1 - Enyaar
2nd - 5 - Harry's Pal - Racing well at R70, C and D win last start, like the claim in the wet.
3rd - 3 - Cap Eden Roc - Appears to have the form, and will go well fresh, concerned about the wet.
4th - 8 - Scottish Mist
Race 2 - Rotary Club of Auckland East 2400 - Rating 80 over 2400m
I liked the look of the top 4 in the book for this one, in the end I had to take the utla-consistent Magna Carter who has not finished worse than 5th in his last 7 races. I think when you combine the form with the track conditions and track record it just looks like a winner.
1st - 3- Magna Carter
2nd - 2 - Stagehand - 2nd at R90 level last week, won on the course R80 prior to this.
3rd - 1 - Intransigent - Withought the claim I would be more concerned.
4th - 4 - George Neil - First start right handed and first time to Ellerslie, simply seems to be have the next best form.
Race 3 - The Warf Function Centre 2100 - R70 SW+P over 2100m
I didn't like this race at all, I got the impression that a lot of these will be running in R70 races for a while longer; but I guess someone has to win, I ended up circling about 6 of the 12 runners, I narrowed it down to these four.
1st - 4 - Toby Cee - Back in class with an allowance.
2nd - 1 - Sand Jewell - Consistent lead up, but thought the extra weight may hurt.
3rd - 9 - Staxa Stamina - Lightweight, some concern about track conditions but seemed to be going forward in her career.
4th - 12 - Tekeela - Definitely a candidate to get strong support from the Whips and Spurs crowd.
Race 4 - Remuera Fisheries Mitchelson Cup - Open Handicap over 2200m
I have many questions, I go past Remuera Fisheries most days on my way to work, I see a framed picture on the wall of a racehorse in full flight, I have always wondered who the horse is, and who owns that shop. Secondly, who is Mitchelson? Thirdly, does this cup actually exist, or is it a figurative cup to make the race sound cooler.
Either way a strong field is lining up for this "cup", I am very keen to see how Sterling Prince goes, it clearly has had the most success out of this field, but maybe the wet will be too much to overcome. I really like the way that I'm Isaac goes at Ellerslie, 3,1,2*,4,1 in his last 5 starts the 2nd was on this day last year. It was hard to leave out Halls, but there is a big question mark, in 65 starts it has never started at Ellerslie, and only had 3 runs right handed, granted it placed in one of those, but definitely left a question in my mind.
1st - 2 - I'm Isaac
2nd - 7 - The Strutter - A lot to like, the track record, the wet record and the level of competition in recent times.
3rd - 3 - Sterling Prince
4th - 9 - The Missing Link - Also ran in this last year, he won, and thanks to the allowance will only carry 52kg this weekend.
Race 5 - Just Juice Bonecrusher Stakes - (listed) 3YO Set Weights - 1400m
I am not sure a lot of people will be on Fort Lincoln today. His one run in a similar race was troubled, his only other 1400m start was at Group 1 level, and again he just managed to stay within 20 lengths of Anabandana, we all know how good she is. Maybe he is not a 1400m horse, but the last 2 starts at Ellerslie he flew home over 1200m, I think he deserves another look. Maybe it is the Ellerslie factor, of the $597k of stake winnings (most coming from the Karaka Millions) he won as a 2YO, he won $589,700 at Ellerslie. Maybe he is a slow starter, he won 2nd up as a 2YO, but that was in a 4 horse field, he didn't place again until his 5th start; counting last week and a 2nd place in a trial, Fort Lincoln might be ready to take this out. Of the 10 starts, 5 of those have been at listed level or above (including the Karaka Millions which is a major race), I would rather bet on a horse racing at that level than one who might have looked good winning a $5k race at this stage of their respective careers.
1st - 1 - Fort Lincoln
2nd - 3 - Field of Dreams - Consistent in the short career to date, should be able to run 1400m well.
3rd - 2 - Dollario - Winner of 3 who can handle wet tracks, proven over 1400m
4th - 5 - Randall - Winner last start over 1400m
Race 6 - Ray White Real Estate - MDN over 1400m
I am not sure I like the term Real Estate, can they not call it Property? is it so you know it is not Fake Estate? This looks like a pretty strong maiden field today, it seems like there is potential to go up a few grades this spring for a lot of these runners, I think that number 3 Whistling Straights will be the one to break maidens today, although last start was his worst result the consistency he has shown to date is what I am looking at here.
1st - 3 - Whistling Straights
2nd - 2 - Saskee - Looks about the next best, the claim looks like it will help a horse who goes well in slower conditions.
3rd - 9 - Love the consistency over the distance with the claim in this race.
4th - 13 - Lady Gaga- This is the Whips'n'Spurs bet of the day, how many drunk chicks will see this name and have a punt.
Race 7 - Soliloquy Stakes - (listed) 3YO Fillies Set Weights over 1400m
Whoshe might be the top 3YO on display today in Auckland, she has won 3 from 6 including a stakes race at Ellerslie over 1400m, winner of a mixed stakes race last start she should have too much for the rest of these fillies.
1st - 1 Whoshe
2nd - 3 - River Nymph - 3rd in a stakes race last start, seems to need another 200m.
3rd - 11 - Perfect Katch - Looks like an improver who has been looking for a bit more distance
4th - 6 - Ready Steady - Fresh, but up to this class, 1400m should be good, the draw might make life difficult.
Race 8 - Life Education Ambassador Terenzo Bozzone 1200 - Open Handicap over 1200m
A great 1200m race, a lot of form on the course and over the distance in the wet to pick from, making it a hard decision for a race with only a field of 9.
1st - 1 - Rusty Devil - The one to beat, ace draw, amazing in the wet, at Ellerslie and over 1200m.
2nd - 6 - Pure Crusing - Undefeated on the course, seems to win on any surface, in the money 7/10 so far
3rd - 3 - Kaap Kruis - I am glad it is George Simon and not me who has to pronounce this all race.
4th 2 - Art Beat - It is hard to leave out in the wet on this track.
Race 9 - Leila McDonald Rating 90 - Rating 90 over 1600
Only 9 starters for a $30,000 1600m R90 race at Ellerslie? Well they have done well with a high quality field.
1st - 2 - Asgoodasitgets - Tough call, it just looks to be on the rise and capable of winning on the course over the distance. Good 2nd up and only once out of the top 4 in 15 starts.
2nd - 1 - Sircross - Didn't he win this exact race 4 starts back?
3rd - 3 - Headsup - Better for the last start, ran in tough competition all last season, however had best success when he dropped down to R90 and Open races.
4th - 5 - Toughasim - Very good on a wet track, seems to look good over the course and distance.
Race 10 - Kim Hutchison - Fabulous at 50 1400 - Rating 70 over 1400m
I picked his by process of elimination, simply went down crossing of runners who I thought couldn't win this race. Beau Casual is having his 114th start, looking for win number 10, will he get it? most likely not, but I get the impression anything could happen here.
1st - 4 - Mangaroa Flyer - Close in 5 starts, looks like 1600m is too far at this stage.
2nd - 5 - Pogue - How good has Opie Bosson been riding recently? Pogue has been running in top competition, so possibly looks good for a win here.
3rd - 8 - Thornbirds - has placed in last 2 when probably capable of going 200m further.
4th - 10 - Pure Platinum - Looks like an imporver who will suit 1400m.
I cannot wait for this weekend, Whips and Spurs will be awesome, France will lose, and I hope that is not my only correct prediction.
Monday 19 September 2011
Jimmy Choux, Anabandana, Lion Tamer and other Saturday thoughts
Jimmy Choux was outstanding on Saturday. This race is probably a fair indication of his form and quality, regardless of what results he achieves in Australia this spring, he will at least enter the country in top form and possibly continuing to improve. He beat Mufhasa, a proven Group 1 winner in outstanding form, Mufhasa probably ran the race many predicted he would won from barrier two, and it was simply not enough to get the best of Jimmy Choux. It also looked like both Hold it Harvey and Wall Street were well placed to gain ground on Mufhasa if they were good enough or if Mufhasa was not at top form, and although Hold it Harvey made up some ground they didn't seem to get too much closer to Mufhasa, maybe Wall Street is not quite at his best but he still ran well for forth. For Jimmy Choux to finish so strongly against this field where his main opponent seemed to do everything right, it has got to be evidence that he is ready to put his best foot forward in Melbourne.
There were a couple of impressive performances by 3YO's on the day. The most impressive was Anabandana, the Filly started as a hot favorite in what appeared to be a challenging field of 3YO Fillies, despite fears she might be under done and targeting bigger races later in the season she asserted her dominance on the field and when jockey Opie Bosson told her to go, she went, I only counted 3 strokes of the whip in the final 200m as she won so comfortably it felt like she was toying with the other horses and could have won by as much has she wanted.
I liked the look of Estrato in the 3YO handicap race, on paper it looked like he was the most proven runner in the race. He performed well as a 2YO winning a listed race relatively early in the season, and performing well in top company throughout most of the year, it looked like this colt had the big race experience to go well here. It looked like he should have won more comfortably than he did, he seemed to still have a lot of fight and energy in the birdcage after the race, but it was a good ride by Sam Spratt to get him to the line and keep him fighting for victory.
The best finish of the day had to be in race six with Guiseppina and Twilight Savings flying home to almost catch Imani. Both horses proved they were of high caliber last year, and Guiseppina seemed to be caught in a bad position throughout the race making the finish more impressive.
Lion Tamer had an outstanding win against a very strong field in the weight for age Underwood Stakes at Caulfield. The race featured Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup, and Melbourne Cup hopefuls but the 2010 Victorian Derby Champion was able to ride along nicely in about 6th, he moved up before the bend and was able to run home impressively for his second Australian Group 1. I don't know what you can take out of this race about his chances for the rest of the spring, he looked fit, he ran home strongly, we know he can go well over more distance, the only horse who seemed to be closing on him was Southern Speed, and maybe Scarlett Lady/Playing God/Precedence if you want to look back further, so it will be interesting to see what he does from here. Certainly, it seems he has impressed the New Zealand TAB he is now into $8 in the Caulield Cup, $14 in the Cox Plate, and $8 favourite in the Melbourne Cup and based on what we know now that all seems fair enough, he is paying slightly more on Betfair but that probably represents the patriotic Kiwi public. Not sure what other take-aways I have from that race, maybe it would take more of an expert than me to get anything out of it, I think if you like any of the top 8 or 9 in that race you are OK to stick with them moving forward, they were not too far away and seemed to all finish pretty strongly, Precedence looked to be fading just before the 200m, and then found another gear in the last 100m. From a New Zealand perspective it just didn't look like Scarlet Lady's day. She seemed to come out of the barrier slow, and then got caught in a position where she couldn't move forward or backward, she finally got a bit more space bit was forced to race a bit wide and then ran on well at the end, maybe a bit more distance and a better start can help, but I wouldn't write her off for later in the spring. Playing God was the other runner who looked to come from a bad position for most of the race and finish off strongly. It was an exciting race which really made it feel like spring was here and I look forward to seeing more of these horses as the spring wears on.
There were a couple of impressive performances by 3YO's on the day. The most impressive was Anabandana, the Filly started as a hot favorite in what appeared to be a challenging field of 3YO Fillies, despite fears she might be under done and targeting bigger races later in the season she asserted her dominance on the field and when jockey Opie Bosson told her to go, she went, I only counted 3 strokes of the whip in the final 200m as she won so comfortably it felt like she was toying with the other horses and could have won by as much has she wanted.
I liked the look of Estrato in the 3YO handicap race, on paper it looked like he was the most proven runner in the race. He performed well as a 2YO winning a listed race relatively early in the season, and performing well in top company throughout most of the year, it looked like this colt had the big race experience to go well here. It looked like he should have won more comfortably than he did, he seemed to still have a lot of fight and energy in the birdcage after the race, but it was a good ride by Sam Spratt to get him to the line and keep him fighting for victory.
The best finish of the day had to be in race six with Guiseppina and Twilight Savings flying home to almost catch Imani. Both horses proved they were of high caliber last year, and Guiseppina seemed to be caught in a bad position throughout the race making the finish more impressive.
Lion Tamer had an outstanding win against a very strong field in the weight for age Underwood Stakes at Caulfield. The race featured Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup, and Melbourne Cup hopefuls but the 2010 Victorian Derby Champion was able to ride along nicely in about 6th, he moved up before the bend and was able to run home impressively for his second Australian Group 1. I don't know what you can take out of this race about his chances for the rest of the spring, he looked fit, he ran home strongly, we know he can go well over more distance, the only horse who seemed to be closing on him was Southern Speed, and maybe Scarlett Lady/Playing God/Precedence if you want to look back further, so it will be interesting to see what he does from here. Certainly, it seems he has impressed the New Zealand TAB he is now into $8 in the Caulield Cup, $14 in the Cox Plate, and $8 favourite in the Melbourne Cup and based on what we know now that all seems fair enough, he is paying slightly more on Betfair but that probably represents the patriotic Kiwi public. Not sure what other take-aways I have from that race, maybe it would take more of an expert than me to get anything out of it, I think if you like any of the top 8 or 9 in that race you are OK to stick with them moving forward, they were not too far away and seemed to all finish pretty strongly, Precedence looked to be fading just before the 200m, and then found another gear in the last 100m. From a New Zealand perspective it just didn't look like Scarlet Lady's day. She seemed to come out of the barrier slow, and then got caught in a position where she couldn't move forward or backward, she finally got a bit more space bit was forced to race a bit wide and then ran on well at the end, maybe a bit more distance and a better start can help, but I wouldn't write her off for later in the spring. Playing God was the other runner who looked to come from a bad position for most of the race and finish off strongly. It was an exciting race which really made it feel like spring was here and I look forward to seeing more of these horses as the spring wears on.
Friday 16 September 2011
Windsor Park Plate Race Day
I was out of the country last month and missed New Zealand's first Group 1 race of the season, so my excitement has been building for this race. It is also a very interesting day of horse racing in the Hawkes Bay in general as we get our first look at Anabandana racing as a 3 year old. There is a top field in the 1200m PGG Wrightson East Coast Premier. A 2000m race which features some of last seasons better distance horses possibly preparing for the New Zealand Cup or a trip to Australia later in the Spring. The last race of the day features an interesting field of horses several of which could be described as tweeners, some maybe going on to better things, some maybe would have been expected to reach a higher level last season and have been racing in the feature today.
There is also big racing in Australia, the Underwood Stakes is interesting, I clearly remember So You Think winning this last year and confirming it would be the horse to beat all spring (and ever since). There is a great field this year featuring an entire field of horses aiming for races like the Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup, and Melbourne cup.
However, I am very keen to explore in more detail some of the contenders for the Windsor Park Plate in Hawkes Bay, this race is over 1600m, the track is currently a Dead 5 according to the TAB, and looking at the forecast for the next 2 days it looks like there could be a bit of rain Friday evening and Saturday late morning and afternoon, it looks light and hopefully wont severely effect the conditions.
The Contenders
Mufhasa - Looked great winning over 1400m in the seasons first Group 1. He broke clear about 200m from home and was never challenged again. He should be handy again from barrier 1, but can he win at this level over 1600m? He has won 3 from 9 over this distance, and finished over 1400m last start like he could have run another 200m, however he has not started over 1600 for around 18 months, this was a Group 1 and he won that start. He has looked so good in recent times over 1200m and 1400m that in this race against this field it will be tough not to consider him a contender for this.
Wall Street - Won this race last year. Has a great 1600m record (15:9:2). Goes great 2nd up, but seems to go great early in most campaigns. Seemed to fade over 1400m in the Makfi, he was not a threat in his last two starts in Australia last year. I don't want to write him off, because it could have been 1 bad race fresh up, but I think he needs to go close in this race to show that class again, he was so good this time last year and he won a Group 1 during Melbourne Cup week over this distance last year.
Jimmy Choux - Ran home well for 2nd. Is on his home track. 1600m is a highly suited distance. Doesn't mind more rain. Won 2 from 2 second up. Every way you look at his record he should win this race.
Thoughts on other contenders
Booming - Probably looking for more distance, but has won a Group 1 over this distance in the last 12 months. Chances will be badly hurt with more rain.
Hold it Harvey - Impressive record, but when you dig deeper most of those victories have come in the South Island. Most of the victories have come later in a campaign, between 6th and 13th up, so it is probably a horse who needs a bit more racing. Two impressive victories in the North Island last year put it in the class to compete and the 4-0 course record is deceptive because he always seems to feature in these races, not a terrible 7th in this last year and 4th in last years spring classic. Don't know what to make of the victories in the North last Autumn, I would not be surprised to see a 3rd or 4th, and equally not surprised to see an 11th or 12th.
Fritzy Boy - Some numbers, 3* / 1, 3, 5 / 9, 7, 11/ 3, 2, 6/ 5. Some more numbers 11:1:3. The first set of numbers are the case for Fritzy Boy, those are his results in Group races in Hawkes Bay (*this was a Group 2 race for 3YO's) they are pretty consistent, he always seems to be around the money. The second group of numbers is his record over 1600m which is why I would look at him for a place but he is hard to have winning. Currently paying $26 fixed odds at the TAB , that represents pretty good value, particulary if you look at his impressive record on wetter tracks, if only there was fixed odds place betting I would be interested in odds around $6 or $7.
Fleur de Lune - Never out of the top three in nine races which includes two Group 1 starts. She has looked like a 1600m horse in the past, but wore down a little over 1400m last start. She seems to finish every race strong. Hard to see her beating Jimmy Choux, after having him fly past her in the Makfi, but watching that race again when Mufhasa went past her with 200m to go it looked like she could get swamped and drop back through the field, she didn't, she kept fighting, finding a little more, challenging, I think that explains the impressive record. It looks like she may set the pace from barrier two again or at least be near the front. She also won 3rd and 4th up in February. Every time I look through the form guide for this race I stop at Fleur de Lune and look for reasons why it cannot win this race, and I it only comes down to the quality of the competition.
Some other thoughts
Six O'clock News - I have two questions for you; without looking it up, how much career prize money do you think Six O'clock News has won? and how many races has he won? the answers $361,968 and 6. Yes most owners would love to have those numbers, but don't you feel like he has won more? Sometimes this horse runs a race and looks so impressive, but most often these have not been the bigger races. I am not sure I know what this horse is, is it a stayer or more of a middle distance horse, it seems to go best on good ground, it is pretty consistent but will look good one week and be facing a race that on paper should be better the next and will not show up. I don't like it for this, but I could see it running home so well for 4th or 5th that it attracts a lot of attention for the Spring Classic and then lets everyone down with a disinterested 8th in that race.
Baldovino - I like attending big race days and seeing horses like this. 3 from 3, pretty cool name, nice colours, and no one really knows if it is really good yet. Here is how this goes, big race days attract a lot of people for an event and to have fun, they are not really into racing, they just want to have a bit of a punt drink and have fun, this is all great, it creates a fun atmosphere and is usually the only way I can get people to come to the races with me. At these events you get a lot of people trying to study form early, and then later betting based on record, name, colour, Jockey or something similar. By race 9 a lot of booze has gone down and a horse like Baldovino could attract a lot of on-course money particularly if Leith Innes kicks home a couple of winners early in the day (not out of the question from looking at his rides). $12 at the moment on fixed odds could see this paying $9 or $10 on the tote.
No Thoughts
Atom Cat - I love Hayden Tinsley in big races, I don't really think Atom Cat has a chance in this race, but still feel like $51 fixed odds is a bit higher than I would have expected.
St Germaine - Not sure what to expect from this horse. Seems overrated, not sure if it is up to this level of race, but also seems to be consistently in the front half of the field against any company.
My Picks
1st - Jimmy Choux
2nd - Wall Street
3rd - Fluer de Lune
4th - Mufhasa
Nothing too scientific really, basically just confirms that I agree basically with the TAB odds makers.
To me this race seems like a perfect one to just bank on Jimmy Choux and throw a bunch in your muiltiples for 2nd and 3rd, a trifecta may look like this.
1st - Jimmy Choux (9)
2nd - Wall Street, Fluer de Lune, Mufhasa, Fritzy Boy, Hold it Harvey (1,2,4,5,11)
3rd - 1,2,4,5,11, and Baldovino, Booming
Cost for $1 unit - $30 or take a % of that and if cover yourself for an outsider who could feature in this even field.
FEP92XE4NWTJ
There is also big racing in Australia, the Underwood Stakes is interesting, I clearly remember So You Think winning this last year and confirming it would be the horse to beat all spring (and ever since). There is a great field this year featuring an entire field of horses aiming for races like the Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup, and Melbourne cup.
However, I am very keen to explore in more detail some of the contenders for the Windsor Park Plate in Hawkes Bay, this race is over 1600m, the track is currently a Dead 5 according to the TAB, and looking at the forecast for the next 2 days it looks like there could be a bit of rain Friday evening and Saturday late morning and afternoon, it looks light and hopefully wont severely effect the conditions.
The Contenders
Mufhasa - Looked great winning over 1400m in the seasons first Group 1. He broke clear about 200m from home and was never challenged again. He should be handy again from barrier 1, but can he win at this level over 1600m? He has won 3 from 9 over this distance, and finished over 1400m last start like he could have run another 200m, however he has not started over 1600 for around 18 months, this was a Group 1 and he won that start. He has looked so good in recent times over 1200m and 1400m that in this race against this field it will be tough not to consider him a contender for this.
Wall Street - Won this race last year. Has a great 1600m record (15:9:2). Goes great 2nd up, but seems to go great early in most campaigns. Seemed to fade over 1400m in the Makfi, he was not a threat in his last two starts in Australia last year. I don't want to write him off, because it could have been 1 bad race fresh up, but I think he needs to go close in this race to show that class again, he was so good this time last year and he won a Group 1 during Melbourne Cup week over this distance last year.
Jimmy Choux - Ran home well for 2nd. Is on his home track. 1600m is a highly suited distance. Doesn't mind more rain. Won 2 from 2 second up. Every way you look at his record he should win this race.
Thoughts on other contenders
Booming - Probably looking for more distance, but has won a Group 1 over this distance in the last 12 months. Chances will be badly hurt with more rain.
Hold it Harvey - Impressive record, but when you dig deeper most of those victories have come in the South Island. Most of the victories have come later in a campaign, between 6th and 13th up, so it is probably a horse who needs a bit more racing. Two impressive victories in the North Island last year put it in the class to compete and the 4-0 course record is deceptive because he always seems to feature in these races, not a terrible 7th in this last year and 4th in last years spring classic. Don't know what to make of the victories in the North last Autumn, I would not be surprised to see a 3rd or 4th, and equally not surprised to see an 11th or 12th.
Fritzy Boy - Some numbers, 3* / 1, 3, 5 / 9, 7, 11/ 3, 2, 6/ 5. Some more numbers 11:1:3. The first set of numbers are the case for Fritzy Boy, those are his results in Group races in Hawkes Bay (*this was a Group 2 race for 3YO's) they are pretty consistent, he always seems to be around the money. The second group of numbers is his record over 1600m which is why I would look at him for a place but he is hard to have winning. Currently paying $26 fixed odds at the TAB , that represents pretty good value, particulary if you look at his impressive record on wetter tracks, if only there was fixed odds place betting I would be interested in odds around $6 or $7.
Fleur de Lune - Never out of the top three in nine races which includes two Group 1 starts. She has looked like a 1600m horse in the past, but wore down a little over 1400m last start. She seems to finish every race strong. Hard to see her beating Jimmy Choux, after having him fly past her in the Makfi, but watching that race again when Mufhasa went past her with 200m to go it looked like she could get swamped and drop back through the field, she didn't, she kept fighting, finding a little more, challenging, I think that explains the impressive record. It looks like she may set the pace from barrier two again or at least be near the front. She also won 3rd and 4th up in February. Every time I look through the form guide for this race I stop at Fleur de Lune and look for reasons why it cannot win this race, and I it only comes down to the quality of the competition.
Some other thoughts
Six O'clock News - I have two questions for you; without looking it up, how much career prize money do you think Six O'clock News has won? and how many races has he won? the answers $361,968 and 6. Yes most owners would love to have those numbers, but don't you feel like he has won more? Sometimes this horse runs a race and looks so impressive, but most often these have not been the bigger races. I am not sure I know what this horse is, is it a stayer or more of a middle distance horse, it seems to go best on good ground, it is pretty consistent but will look good one week and be facing a race that on paper should be better the next and will not show up. I don't like it for this, but I could see it running home so well for 4th or 5th that it attracts a lot of attention for the Spring Classic and then lets everyone down with a disinterested 8th in that race.
Baldovino - I like attending big race days and seeing horses like this. 3 from 3, pretty cool name, nice colours, and no one really knows if it is really good yet. Here is how this goes, big race days attract a lot of people for an event and to have fun, they are not really into racing, they just want to have a bit of a punt drink and have fun, this is all great, it creates a fun atmosphere and is usually the only way I can get people to come to the races with me. At these events you get a lot of people trying to study form early, and then later betting based on record, name, colour, Jockey or something similar. By race 9 a lot of booze has gone down and a horse like Baldovino could attract a lot of on-course money particularly if Leith Innes kicks home a couple of winners early in the day (not out of the question from looking at his rides). $12 at the moment on fixed odds could see this paying $9 or $10 on the tote.
No Thoughts
Atom Cat - I love Hayden Tinsley in big races, I don't really think Atom Cat has a chance in this race, but still feel like $51 fixed odds is a bit higher than I would have expected.
St Germaine - Not sure what to expect from this horse. Seems overrated, not sure if it is up to this level of race, but also seems to be consistently in the front half of the field against any company.
My Picks
1st - Jimmy Choux
2nd - Wall Street
3rd - Fluer de Lune
4th - Mufhasa
Nothing too scientific really, basically just confirms that I agree basically with the TAB odds makers.
To me this race seems like a perfect one to just bank on Jimmy Choux and throw a bunch in your muiltiples for 2nd and 3rd, a trifecta may look like this.
1st - Jimmy Choux (9)
2nd - Wall Street, Fluer de Lune, Mufhasa, Fritzy Boy, Hold it Harvey (1,2,4,5,11)
3rd - 1,2,4,5,11, and Baldovino, Booming
Cost for $1 unit - $30 or take a % of that and if cover yourself for an outsider who could feature in this even field.
FEP92XE4NWTJ
Introduction
I enjoy Horse Racing. I think it is a genetic thing, my father is very much into it, I also have fond memories of my Grandmother sitting in her kitchen in Sydney listening to the radio, taking notes, and following horses. I probably got into it more seriously over the past 6-7 years once I had a real job and real disposable income. I am definitely not a big punter and I couldn't even claim to be a good one, but I do enjoy the challenge of studying form, watching the races, and trying to pick winners.
Why did I start this blog? I have been looking forward to this spring for months, there was a great group of horses in New Zealand last year, they had success in Australia, close and exciting Group 1's, I liked the 3 year old horses who would be moving up and the 2YO's becoming 3YO's this year. I had thoughts on a lot of these things, but really don't have a lot of people to share these with, when I get excited and babble about Jimmy Choux's achievements as a 3YO to my friends their eyes glaze over, people around me don't really seem to care about Racing (this is probably more of a societal trend than something specific amongst my friends particularly in the 25-30 age group where I fall). There are forums out there, and although I like reading these and picking up knowledge, learning and hearing insider stories, these forums do tend to be dominated by Racing insiders and it is intimidating to post in an environment where your credentials matter as much as your opinion. The third reason is simply to put my thoughts into words, I find this is a good way to step back and analyse races and figure out who I like and who I don't, when I go to the races I have the, admittedly geeky, habit of creating a spreadsheet of my picks for that day (Yes, I get mocked for this), this is like a verbal version of this.
This will focus mainly in New Zealand racing. This is what I spend most of my time watching and betting on, these are the horses I follow and know better. I will follow New Zealand horses as they travel for the bigger stakes in Australia, but that is more of an emotional attachment, a chance to see how they rate at that level. I am not aiming to compare and contrast racing on both sides of the Tasman. The reason I like and follow racing in New Zealand for the same reason someone would follow any sports league, they enjoy the competition and know the players/teams, for instance if you liked Basketball it is possible to follow the NBA (assuming the lockout ends soon) and the ANBL without comparing these leagues and simply enjoying them for what they are.
So feel free to enjoy, dislike, comment, mock this at will. This is created both to verbalise internal dialogue and for anyone who is interested to read and discuss.
Why did I start this blog? I have been looking forward to this spring for months, there was a great group of horses in New Zealand last year, they had success in Australia, close and exciting Group 1's, I liked the 3 year old horses who would be moving up and the 2YO's becoming 3YO's this year. I had thoughts on a lot of these things, but really don't have a lot of people to share these with, when I get excited and babble about Jimmy Choux's achievements as a 3YO to my friends their eyes glaze over, people around me don't really seem to care about Racing (this is probably more of a societal trend than something specific amongst my friends particularly in the 25-30 age group where I fall). There are forums out there, and although I like reading these and picking up knowledge, learning and hearing insider stories, these forums do tend to be dominated by Racing insiders and it is intimidating to post in an environment where your credentials matter as much as your opinion. The third reason is simply to put my thoughts into words, I find this is a good way to step back and analyse races and figure out who I like and who I don't, when I go to the races I have the, admittedly geeky, habit of creating a spreadsheet of my picks for that day (Yes, I get mocked for this), this is like a verbal version of this.
This will focus mainly in New Zealand racing. This is what I spend most of my time watching and betting on, these are the horses I follow and know better. I will follow New Zealand horses as they travel for the bigger stakes in Australia, but that is more of an emotional attachment, a chance to see how they rate at that level. I am not aiming to compare and contrast racing on both sides of the Tasman. The reason I like and follow racing in New Zealand for the same reason someone would follow any sports league, they enjoy the competition and know the players/teams, for instance if you liked Basketball it is possible to follow the NBA (assuming the lockout ends soon) and the ANBL without comparing these leagues and simply enjoying them for what they are.
So feel free to enjoy, dislike, comment, mock this at will. This is created both to verbalise internal dialogue and for anyone who is interested to read and discuss.
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