Lets get the favourites out of the way first. I have been looking very hard at both (2) Americain ($7.50) and (1) Dunaden ($6.50) since the Caulfield Cup. I am not going to break much ground with this analysis but Dunaden was amazing in the Caulfield, he won here last year and probably has improved since then, he would have taken improvement from the Caulfield run and has to be in this. Americain was probably the next best Caulfield Cup run, he will meet Dunaden a kg better off at Flemington, he knows how to win this race and the extra half mile will suit. They are hard to split for me, while I can conceive a situation in which neither of these runners win, I find it hard to see a situation in which one or both of these runners doesn't place, and certainly cant see either finishing outside of the first handful across the line.
How would you bet this? there is just too much uncertainty in this race to grab $6 - $7.50ish, however if you like either then the roving banker option might be the way to go, take your preferred option and box with 5 or 6 others and hope something wide pushes up the trifecta pay out.
Who else do I like?
The next two favourites are (4) Red Cadeaux ($9) and (8) Mount Athos ($7). It is hard to fault either one. Red Cadeaux will meet Dunaden better off for weight this year; he only just lost last year. I am not sure he is better than Dunaden, but the 3.5kg difference is tempting. He will go a good race and not be far off them at the end. I am a bit concerned about the lack of obvious speed in the race, I think he might settle back from barrier 18, but that may put him in a position to keep an eye on Dunaden.
Mount Athos, is fresh today, that is a state in which he typically goes well. He is carrying 54kg today, two starts back he carried almost 10kg more than that to win. He is well drawn and will stay well. My only concern would be about the step up to this level, this is much tougher than anything he has faced in the past.
It is hard not to include either of these in multiples, I actually like Red Cadeaux more, but I don't personally like either of these as much as the first two or some of the ones I will mention, but I can see their merits and the reason they are here to race.
Now to be more interesting
There were four others I really liked on recent performances, but I have ruled out (23) Zabeelionaire ($51) based on the draw, he will just have too much work to do, he has been steadily improving, looks like he will get the 3200m, and is only carrying 52kg's, but will possibly arrive too late to feature.
(17) My Quest for Peace ($18) - I liked him a lot heading into the Caulfield Cup, his performance there was pretty good. He is beautifully drawn, he should get a nice trailing run behind (13) Glencadam Gold ($41) and (6) Voila Ici ($101) (but because of the size of the field we might see some unusual faces pushing forward to find a position); I think it will pay to be handy in this race. He ran on well at Caulfield and he will be able to get the 3200m, he has won up to 2800m when he was carrying 62.5kg and is well placed here to go a good race.
(16) Mourayan ($21) - He first looked like a contender here 3 starts back in the Makybe Diva (she was a pretty good Melbourne Cup runner), his flying 4th was great. He then went to Sydney and ran on pretty well in the Hill Stakes and then won the Craven Plate. He will step up in distance today after a month off, he is up to 3200m for the first time, last year he won up to 2500m so he should get the trip. He has improved over this preparation and has won 4th up in the past. The 53.5kgs is also another tempting factor in play here.
(10) Ethiopia ($21) - He just seems to be getting better at the right time. The Cox Plate run was very good, and he came home very well in the Turnbull. He has only one once, but that was in the Australian Derby, that run was fourth up after a somewhat similar prep (except this prep as been tougher). Again he is well weighted and can add to her lone win today.
How hard is this race?
I am going to throw some more names at you, these are others which are very tempting to take, they possibly have their flaws, but certainly have to be considered.
(7) Cavalyman ($26) - Dropping in overnight in the odds. His last three races have all been between 3200 and 3300m. The step up in class is going to test, but he will only carry 54kg after carrying 60kg last start. He has been freshened since that, but has a history of coming back from spells over long distances and running well. I like him the most of these flawed contenders.
(24) Kelinni ($21) - The Lexus winner is always a consideration. He has had a solid preparation with a second at Group 1 level two starts back. He ran strongly for victory on the weekend and will drop to 51kg.
(20) Lights of Heaven ($16) - Possibly a little but forgotten, she ran a good Caulfield Cup. Will she stay 3200m? I like others more and $16 is possibly a little short, but could go well.
(14) Green Moon ($17) - It is possibly hard to take the Turnbull winner at 53.5kg, the Cox Plate favourite was not amazing in that race. He has won 5th up and has had a good preparation to date, it is just a case of liking others more.
(13) Glencadam Gold ($41) - Failed in the Caulfield Cup after a very strong lead up campaign.What went wrong? did he work to hard to lead? was the race too tough? He does seem to go better at the start of his preparations and drop off, maybe we have just reached that point. I can't have him, but he is not the worst.
(12) Galileo's Choice ($13) - Am I really going to pick a hurdler to win a Melbourne Cup? We know he will get the distance, we know he will easily carry the weight, he does go well after a spell and will come into play with rain. I don't know much, but will a hurdler have the turn of foot to sprint with them when it is time to go?
That is about half the field covered? Not sure where to place Red Cadeaux and Mount Athos in this mix, but other than them it is a rough prediction of where they should finish. I am very excited for this race as per usual. Enjoy the race.
