What has changed since the Daimond Stakes?

What has happened in between the 2YO's we will see in the Group 1 Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes this season?

-On New Years Day, in the Eclipse Stakes, of runners competing in the Oaks Stud Manawatu Sires Produce Stakes the finishing order was Warhorse, Irish Rebel, Magic Shaft.

- Moving forward to January 21st in Wellington, the Little Avondale Stud Wakefield Challenge Stakes, we saw a finishing order of Irish Rebel, Liberating.

-The Karaka Million was run on the 29th of January, the finishing order was Warhorse, Choice Bro, Mai Guru.

-  Moving into February the 2YO division saw Choice Bro beat Lumiere Blue and Liberating in Taranaki in the Platinum Homes 2YO Classic.

- A week later was a big day at Matamata, we first saw the Reid and Harrision Slipper and watched Magic Shaft better Irish Rebel and Travino, which was the first time we saw a change in one of the major 2YO features since New Years Day. Later that day in the J Swap Contractors Matamata Breeders Stakes we saw them finish Rollout the Carpet, Liberating, Lady de Chine.

- Then in the seasons first 2YO Group 1 we the Haunui Farm Diamond Stakes at Ellerslie, they crossed the line Rollout the Carpet, Warhorse, Soriano, Travino, Choice Bro, and Mai Guru. Warhorse and Rollout the Carpet were reversed in the judges room, and there are question marks as to how her performance may have effected other runners, but it is clear looking at the Two year olds this year there have not been a lot of major shakeups (in these major races at least).

The question is will this change this weekend? The big difference is that they will be competing over 1400m.

Lets look at what we have seen over these seven races to date with the eleven horses who have competed against each other to try to create a ranking. This ranking wont take into account performance or magnitude of the race, simply a Rock, Paper, Scissors type breakdown.

The above table shows the evolution over time of who beat who and by roughly how much. The major change was in the Diamond Stakes because Choice Bro finished well below expectations and Travino finished much closer, that indicates to me that we are in for a close race.


What can explain these significant changes?

Travino was great before Christmas, if those results were taken into account he probably would have begun this table in a higher position, he might be getting fitter, and had claims he was interfered with in that last race.

Choice Bro's best result in the 2YO classic was left handed, the race Daimond Stakes was at Ellerslie Right Handed, he finished about 2.5 lengths behind Warhorse, about an additional length from the Karaka Million, not majorly significant, but does indicate some course and distance regression relative to Warhorse, particularly when you consider that Mai Guru was about 2.5 lengths behind in both races.


Who has excuses from that race?
Mai Guru raced about four wide for most of the event. If we really look at that finish, if not for the fright Rollout the Carpet would have probably won that race. Choice Bro was coming from deep and really never a chance but did make up ground. Warhorse was clearly effected by Rollout the Carpet, Mai Guru was effected by Warhorse, and Travino was effected by Mai Guru. Warhorse had continued interference, Travino and Mai Guru cut inside and Mai Guru was squeezed between Travino and Soriano.


What is different about this weekend's race?
It is 1400m, who might that help?
Rollout the Carpet, Warhorse, Soriano, Travino and Choice Bro all seemed to run out the 1200m very well, 1400m should suit. Magic Shaft looked suited, Irish Rebel could use more ground (Guineas winner in the Spring?).

The Fix is in!
We have the addition of Fix into the mix. What can we expect from this winner of two from two. She got up late to win her maiden over 1000m and then really used the extra 100m well to smash them at Ellerslie. 1400m should suit, she is a major player here.


Who might be better suited going Left Handed?
I think it is fair to include Choice Bro in here as a horse may improve going left, only because of the victory over Ockham's Razor following Ockham's Razors Karaka Million victory. We are generally looking at a small sample size but Warhorse's only "failure" was left handed at Te Rapa, Mai Guru looked good left and has not done as well right (in much tougher races), Rollout the Carpet has had one run right and we saw what happened (although it looked like a fright more than anything), Liberating best work has been left. It does not really look like there is too much to read into these results.


Will anyone benefit from the Awapuni Location?
Lady de Chine is trained at Awapuni, Liberating and Lumiere Blue are others with less distance to travel. Irish Rebel and Choice Bro are the only ones to run a race on the track, the finished first and second in the same race back in December.

Has any performance been effected negatively or positively by track conditions? (right now the track is Dead 4, there is no significant rain forecast).
You can make a case this will be the best track Travino has ran on since his return from Australia. Lumiere Blue was 9th of 9th on a track rated 4, if it improves so does his record. Liberating seems to improve with a bit more moisture around. Lady de Chine went very well on good tracks before the run in the Matamata Breeders Stakes which was Dead.

Any Barrier Draw Concerns?
Warhorse and Choice Bro should get good runs to suit with a lot of runners outside them battling for the lead. A few potential leaders, Irish Rebel (4) , Magic Shaft (7), possibly Mai Guru (1), Rollout the Carpet (6), Fix (9). I think Fix may be suited to get across outside the leader where he has been in other races, however there is definitely a chance the likes of Magic Shaft and Fix can get caught wide if too many move forward. Soriano might be unlucky to be out in 11. Liberating performed well leading last time from a good draw, has tended to go back without much success when drawn wider so 12 is unlucky.

Any odds stand out?
Choice Bro, Left handed, conditions will suit, raced on the track, may be better with the shorter gap between races. $14 is value.
Travino, may get better conditions, unlucky last time, winner on the track. $9 seems fair.
Lumiere Blue, should run into decent conditions, has performed well against these runners in the past, pretty consistent and probably a better chance than $26.
Fix is at $12, there are a few unknowns for her, so $12 is fair, but could be the surprise package.
Lady de Chine is probably a better chance than $26, but there are a lot to like more.

How do I see them finishing?
First - Rollout the Carpet - Should already have a Group 1 to her credit
Second - Choice Bro - Give the benefit of the doubt, I think we see a better performance
Third - Irish Rebel - Matamata breeders finish was strong, an improvement from the Wellington run, should be set for this.
Fourth - Travino - Went back and forth between Warhorse and Magic Shaft before realising that things may be aligning for a strong Travino performance here.

I am very unsure about fourth, if you are having a first four try to go as wide as possible.

To go back to the question at the top, has much changed since the Diamond Stakes? Clearly I think so.

Which Kiwi has the best chance in the Rosehill Guineas?

This Saturday four New Zealand trained runners will take their place in the Rosehill Guineas over 2000m in Sydney. Three of them are rated (by New Zealand bookies) in the top 5 chances (in terms of odds), the other is already a Group 1 winner in Australia. The trip to Australia is always a big challenge for Kiwi horses, there has been a lot of successes over the past couple of years with Wall Street, Jimmy Choux, Mufhasa, Sangster, Lion Tamer, Kings Rose (Can I still claim that?) and Scarlett Lady amongst some of the more successful. This Saturday there is a chance another name will be added to this list. I have watched these New Zealand 3YO's pretty closely and this is how I think they will go this weekend.

Sangster won the Victorian Derby in November. This prep he was never going to be a chance in the Waikato Draft Sprint, he was most likely not going to factor in the Australian Guineas, but last start at Moonee Valley over 2040m he showed similar progress to his build up to the Victorian Derby putting in a better performance. 2000m will suit, but this may still be a bit of a Derby build up. He is certainly a place chance, $21 is pretty good value for a win, but the AJC Derby in two weeks is a race he could really be a big part of.

Rock'n'Pop is a bigger chance than the $10 odds on offer at present. Even just looking at how he compares to Ocean Park and Silent Achiever, he was well beaten into second by Silent Achiever on ground which was probably not ideal for either runner, but why is Ocean Park rated a so much better chance than him. Rock'n'Pop won the Guineas, was third at Group 1 level behind Shez Sinsational over this distance, and then was a good second in the Derby (when distance was a question mark). Ocean Park's best two results were dominating the Group 3 Wellington Stakes, a close up 8th two weeks ago at Randwick, and having Silent Achiever weave through the field and beat him in Hamilton. Personally I still prefer Rcok'n'Pop, I think this distance will suit, he will be happy at barrier 10 and you would imagine he will be in the first half of the pack two wide.

Ocean Park is a good chance, despite been caught late over 2000m at Hamilton he will be fitter for that experience over 2000m. He was only two-ish lengths behind Mosheen last start (she would be favoured here I expect) and finished comparably to Manawanui. I know Ocean Park is good, it is just very hard to compare him to any of the other Kiwi horses, I know Silent Achiever was better than him, is suspect Rock'n'Pop is better, but because he missed the derby there are a lot of unknowns. It appears he might have improved from his last New Zealand Race, and strong form in Australia is important, but he did finish behind Seven other horses in the Randwick Guineas, five of which he will face on Saturday. Luck was certainly a factor in the Randwick Guineas, but to bet on Ocean Park to win this weekend you need to make the following assumptions; he wont have bad luck (you have to assume that for whoever you bet on); he would have beaten the other  five Australian runners without bad luck (doubtful); he would have beaten them if the race was extended 400m (possible); he has improved to the point he is better than Silent Achiever (unlikely); Silent Achiever will beat every other runner over 2000m (a strong chance); he is stronger and 2000m now suits (I am still not completely sure, but will give him benefit of the doubt).  That is not enough in my opinion to have him beating Silent Achiever, Laser Hawk or all of other other four who beat him last time.

Silent Achiever is great, the draw should not concern, she will go back, if she has cover she should be able to get a run. She is the best hope of the Kiwi's, in a four horse race over this distance she beats them all with comfort. Is she good enough to beat the Aussie horses? that is the big question.

Of course this is not just a four horse race, there will probably be 18 starters. Laser Hawk ran a narrow third to Mosheen last start and has to be considered. If you like Ocean Park you have to like the look of Galah. Strike the Stars is a chance based on his last two races. Induna and Sabrage will be getting better with distance, but probably wont figure. Highly Recommended looks more threatening over 2000m. Said Com is consistent but ran out of steam and now has 400m more to deal with. Proliferate is stepping up, but the distance with better footing may help.

There are chances across the board and the Kiwi runners are a good hope, certainly we should see one or two in the money, but can they claim the big prize, Silent Achiever looks the best pick.

Tuesday Racing, Why not?

I know that Monday and Tuesday racing is a somewhat controversial topic, I am not here to comment on the logistics or point of this, nor am I informed enough on the reasons for and against. What I am is bored. I never pay much attention to mid week racing, I simply don't have the time, and if I am not going to be home and watching it then I tend not to really bet on it. The good thing about the NZ Racing Website is that if you need to watch mid week racing you can watch all of the races in 20 minutes, if you need to study form for a weekend race it is all right there for you for free.

Today I am throwing myself into Tuesday racing, having a look at the runners and making some selections.

Race 1 - 2000m Maiden - Small field of seven runners, I notice two are paying 20-1 and 30-1 which all but makes this a 5 horse race (in the eyes of the bookies at least), if there were eight runners then maybe one of those at that level is worth a place bet flyer with fixed odds place betting available.

My Picks
First - 4 - Makers Mark - I always like horses coming back from tougher company regardless of the result.
Second - 3 - Prospero - Performed better 2nd up on a dead track, will a slow track suit?
Third - 2 - Lucky Charm - Best performance last start C&D, should run on.
Fourth - 8 - Double Delight - Why not? yet to do anything, but this is only beating three runners, also is another who has raced against better company.

Race 2 - 1600m Maiden - Interesting race with a few runners claiming with apprentice Jockeys where they have not in the past. Also this is a decent sized field with a handful of experienced runners. My theory of runners back in "grade" will be tested today. I also have another theory about not liking runners going back in distance when they are searching for a win.
 My Picks
First - 10 - Shan's Joy - Love the claim, seems to get better with racing, 1600m suits, and handles all tracks.
Second - 4 - Ira Bean - This is where my theories intersect. I do like the claim, hopefully she will go well fresh.
Third - 9 -  Oneworld Onedream - Looks like a big chance based from the two starts to date.
Fourth - 1 - Just Got Home - Is getting closer, more distance seemed to suit last start.

Race 3 - 1400m Rating 75 - Some fairly accomplished rating 75 horses here..
My Picky
First - 1- Czechout Girl - Great name. Recent winner. Claiming will help chances, and she has gone well on slow tracks.
Second - 5 - Sateka - In form, handles all tracks and has won twice in Matamata.
Third - 7 -  Savvy Dancer - Fresh is a state which suits, he worked his way up to longer last prep but still has performed well over 1400m and early in prep.
Fourth - 4 - Snagglepuss - Great 1400m distance record, not in the best form but tends to get a bit better with racing.

Race 4 - 1200m 3YOF Maiden - I always like 3YO races at this level at this point in the season. You never know if you are going to see a Scarlett Lady type runner, maybe a runner who will come on as at 4YO, maybe you are looking at a horse who's connections had hopes she would have been running in a Guineas or Oaks but the timing simply didn't work out. There are a lot of possible story lines in play. It is interesting looking back at our top horses, yes some were great at 3YO, but the late bloomers are interesting, often they raced in this type of race unsuccessfully at age three.

My Picks
First - 10 - Pearle Lustre - had placed in trials and was well supported first up. Should do better here with luck.
Second - 14 - Zabinella - Has only one race start to date at age two, was very well backed. That was following a trial win. Following another trial win is now having her first 3YO start. Hope she does better.
Third - 2 - La Stellina - Close in what looked to be a similar race.
Fourth - 3 - Seven Fifty - Claiming down to 53.5kg. Technically her third 3YO start. Her career form to date looks like she is another who has had a couple of starts but been put away to come back at a better time. Maybe this is the time she can be unleashed.

Race 5 - 1200m Maiden -  Lots of runners having their first start here, really makes it quite open, hard to know what to expect from a few of these runners, tough start to the Quaddie.
My Picks
First - 14 - Veronica Hall - Good course and distance record, beaten favourite, claiming.
Second - 1 - Distance suits and should not have an issue with the slow track, back from a strong race last start.
Third - 5 - The final round - Why not? seems to have trialed well.
Fourth - 3 - Isdabicky - Handful of trials placing recently.


Race 6 - 1600m Racing 65m - Interesting race for three reasons, firstly there is a number of runners back to this level after racing for higher stakes recently, secondly there is a few either dropping back in distance or possibly working their way up to more distance, and thirdly there are several who have not really performed on rain effected tracks.
My Picks
First - 2 - Are you Devious - Without the claim I would be less confident, this is easier than recent races but the slow track performance two starts back is a concern.
Second - 4 - Ransoms Gold - Good performances recently, amongst the favourites again.
Third - 7 - Speedy Rocket - Should suit the conditions, 1600m should see improvement, has been racing for higher stakes at R65 level.
Fourth - 3 - Lovetohaveit - Winner previously at Ellerslie, taking a big claim while taking on a level which is more suitable.

Race 7 - 1200m Rating 65 - Is it just me or do we have some very good apprentice Jockeys around? I really like a number of them and feel very comfortable betting on them.
My Picks
First - 6 - Lady Krovanh - Really good 3rd over 2100m to the eventual derby winner. Freshened. Should go well here.
Second - 12 - Tale to Tell - Was impressed with the maiden victory last start.
Third - 4 - Secret Whisper - Ran in the Guineas last start, 1200m should suit fresh up.
Fourth - 17 - Vuela - Value, concern is track and strong competition.

Race 8 -  1400m Maiden - Interesting race, a lot of possibilities, very few I feel are certain to perform.
My Picks
First - 6 - My Blossom Lady - If you forget the last start then you feel the most confident about her.
Second - 8 - Morgan Le Fay - Looked to have that strong finish to suit 1400m
Third - 2 - Ribbony Rose - Slow track concerns, but merit in the last two starts.
Fourth - 3 - Scarlet Chaparral -  Place chance like so many in this race.
 

New Zealand Horse of the Year contenders

I have been looking for something to write about this week. Although I am very excited about the racing at Rosehill this weekend and for some reason the Japan Trophy meeting at Tauranga is one which always excites me, I am not sure I have much to say about these races.

The season feels like it is winding up, there are still three group 1's this year in New Zealand and plenty of horses heading to Australia for the Sydney Carnival and there are always a number who head to Queensland in the Winter. It has been such a good year for a number of horses I got to thinking who would be my horse of the year right now? When I came up with my answer I realised that horse may be too far ahead to catch. What would need to happen over the next couple of months to change my opinion?

If the season finished now, there is little doubt in my mind that the best performing horse from New Zealand this year has been Mufhasa. His resume includes two Group 1 wins in New Zealand (Makfi Challenge Stakes and the Captain Cook Stakes) as well as two in Australia (Toorak Handicap and the Futurity Stakes), he also finished second in two Group 1 Races in New Zealand (Winsor Park Plate and the Waikato Draft Sprint), his 'worst' performance has been second at Group 3 level in the Tauranga Stakes. The only three horses have to finish a race ahead of him this year are Jimmy Choux, Veyron (both 2 time New Zealand Group 1 winners this year) and Lady Chaparral. That is a very decent six month stretch. There may be more to come in Sydney this Autumn. Is that the best season by any Kiwi horse? I don't think there is anything which can top this now, but could anything top it by year end?

Could a Two Year Old win?
Conceivably, yes. This year, no. Even if Warhorse is able to win a second Group 1 it would be impossible to put his body of work ahead of Mufhasa. Even if a unrecognised or under-recognised NZ 2YO travelled to Australia in the winter and won multiple Group 1's it still might not be enough. I am yet to read of any plans for any of the "leading" 2YO talent to attempt this, so we can stack this in the very unlikely pile.

Who is the top 3YO contender?
There have been five 3YO Group 1 Races, we have had five different winners. Only one horse (Rock'n'Pop) has run in the top three of more than one of these races. The other two stand out 3YO's this year (when you look at their whole body of work) are Planet Rock and Silent Achiever, the next tier includes Artistic and Ocean Park. I know none of these have impressed like Mufhasa thus far this season, I think the top New Zealand three year old may come down to Australian performances, but will any of these performances be sufficient to unseat current favourite Mufhasa? If Silent Achiever is able to win both the Rosehill Guineas and the Australia Derby (assuming that is where she ends up), what if Artistic is able to do something in Queensland, as the Oaks appears a target, Ocean Park looked good first start in Australia, he might be a Guineas or even Derby threat, and there is always the chance of another top chance emerging over the Winter like Shez Sinsational and Scarlett Lady did last year, could a horse like Quintessential challenge? I am not sure Silent Achiever will be best suited in the Guineas, but should be a threat over Oaks or Derby distance. However, even with those feathers in her cap it is hard to see people considering her as having a better year than Mufhasa.

Group 1 Winners galore
Scarlett Lady had the potential to sew up this horse of the year status in the Spring but injury prevented this. She is currently in Australia and one would assume she is aiming for a BMW or a Sydney Cup or something similar. Her resume for 2011/12 is short, but includes a 2000m Group 1 victory during Auckland Cup week. Strong results over in Australia could see her contend for horse of the year, but there is a lot of ground to make up.

Veyron finished off a dominant 2011 with a win in the Easter Handicap capturing his first Group 1 in the process. He started the new season with a fourth first up at Open Handicap level in November, as we approach April that is still his worst result of the season.  Since then he has won four races and finished second in two with two Group 1 wins and two seconds over 2000m also at Group 1 level. I would not have expected him to show that kind of talent over 2000m, but it is really testament to his ability. Had he captured those other two Group 1's he may even be the favourite to be horse of the year. Thus far he is not on the exported horses list for March, so it is not clear if he will run in Australia this year. 

Shez Sinsational didn't begin the 2011/12 season spectacularly, running 2nd and 3rd over 1400m in Rating 90 company and 5th in a 1600m Group 3 race. However, the Queensland Oaks and Derby place-getter showed that more ground was what she craved running 2nd in the Cal Isuzu Stakes over 1600m at Group 2 level and then dominating the 2000m WFA category winning both the Zabeel Classic and the Darci Brahma International. Handicap conditions and wet ground caused a worry when third in the Nathan's Memorial but her third Group 1 win was impressive in the Auckland Cup. That alone is probably not enough to have her as horse of the year over Mufhasa, however there are plenty of options available to her as to where she might race next. 

Jimmy Choux has two Group 1 wins in New Zealand this year (Windsor Park Plate and the Spring Classic), he was runner up in the first of the three "triple crown" races to Mufhasa. He was runner up in the Cox Plate and fourth in the Emirates Mile. He was invited to the Hong Kong Mile, he ran ninth, but even accepting an invitation is a big deal. He will have one more start in New Zealand (probably) this year in the Easter Handicap, clearly Handicap conditions may not be ideal, but one would think he has the talent even at a significant weight disadvantage. He will then likely head to Australia for more Group 1's. Would a third New Zealand Group 1 and one or two Aussie Group 1's make him the best Kiwi horse this year? maybe, it really depends on how Mufhasa goes, however at this point it his his 'Race' to lose.

New Zealand Oaks 2012 Preview

Quick, who won the 2011 New Zealand Oaks? tick, tock, tick, buzz. Sorry, no, Kings Rose did not win the Oaks, thanks for playing we have some lovely parting gifts for you.

If you had guessed Scarlett Lady, Shez Sensational, Postmans Daughter or any of the other leading 4YO mares we are seeing around at the moment you would still be wrong. Midnight Oil was the winner, she was followed by Zennista and Insurgent.

This is another year were we will not see the top 3YO filly win the Oaks; she won the New Zealand Derby two weeks ago. That said this field is highlighted by some absolutely top class 3YO talent. The 3YO fillies have been rocking it this year, it is an excellent crop, in my Opinion two of the most stacked 3YO races this year, other than the Derby have been the Eight Carat Classic on Boxing Day and the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. These races didn't even even feature top 3YO prospect at the beginning of the season Anabandana and the Eight Carat Classic featured Dowager Queen but she was far from her best at that point in the season.

This years Oak's field definitely looks split between the "have's" and "have not's" the top half of the book is already very accomplished and filled with genuine winning chances, the bottom half of the book features more uncertainty, but this is the Oaks, it is a huge race and anything can happen.



The Have's

Planet Rock was so impressive in the wet at Hastings, she is a prime contender in this. She is the second favourite which is confusing. Yes, prior to the run at Hastings she recorded two 4ths, but I do feel like she can be fully excused for the first one and partially excused for the second. If you throw out those races would she be favourite? My biggest concern is the change in Jockey, taking off arguably the best big race jockey in the country, that is confusing, in spite of that she may still win.

Is Artistic the filly version of Shuka? look at her 3YO season, it is very consistent, she has finished close up to some very strong competition and she is clearly in the top tier of 3YO's, but she has not really won the big one. I was not sure about her over more distance, but the win during Auckland Cup week and the Sir Tristram Fillies fifth have convinced me otherwise. Has got lucky with the draw, but possibly will face too much competition here to win.

Capital Diamond was very good last time in the Capital. Was just taken out by a flying finish by Quintessential. Zurella gave her more of the same in the Sir Tristram Fillies and Planet Rock trounced her in the Lowland Stakes. She will look to lead and barrier 1 suits this well. She is a very good filly who, with a bit of luck, may have won three starts back at Trentham and won the Sir Tristram Fillies and come into this race as favourite. As it is she is paying $10 (fixed) and $3.25 a place (fixed), can she win? absolutely, will she finish in the money? very likely. Take the $3.25 and thank me later.

Zurella, we know it needs to be dry (and it looks like it will be). We know she goes considerably better left. We know she has run 2400m reasonably well. But there is something about her which leaves me a little cold. Is she overrated? I think she might be. Clearly she is talented, but if you put a stake in the ground and called it A and another stake in the ground 6.2 lengths away and called it B you would be looking at the difference between the best 3YO filly and Zurella (over 2400m), do you think any other filly will finish in that gap in this race? I think so.

Quintessential is paying $15 and $4.75 at the moment. I am not sure what to make of this. I really put it all down to the draw. She is better than that. She finished the day after Planet Rock when third in the Lowland Stakes, but those conditions were horrible. Based on her win here in late January alone you have to consider her a contender here. As I said, I am very put off by the draw, but that is really the major doubt in my mind.

Chicharita is properly rated for this race. She is a horse who I liked for the derby when the conditions looked like they might be bad, this week with a track probably improving to good by start time I am not as confident in her ability to beat some of the other contenders here. Her worst results have come left handed, she was 6th in the Sir Tristram Fillies, every horse who beat her is in this race. Although, she did look good over 2400m as the second filly home, I cant see her improving on that Derby run.

Joy's Choice has been on the radar for a while, but really emerged in the Royal Stakes at Ellerslie, she then came very close to winning the Sunline Vase during Auckland Cup week. I definitely have her in the top half of this field and would be another who I would not be surprised to see in the finish. She is pretty well drawn, and although she was caught late over 2100m, if she can get a sweet trip and save her energy and emerge slightly later she may be able to hold on this time.

Splitsecond is probably the biggest beneficiary of Silent Achiever heading overseas, she will gain the services of James McDonald for this race as he and Roger James target a Derby/Oaks double. $9 is probably a little shorter than I would have expected, but if the Sunline Vase was 2150m she may have won that race (actually Glad probably would have won that race). She has quickly risen to this level and I think a horse like Carrick is a fair comparison, so she has to be considered, she can definitely win this, but with the level of competition $9 does not look like value, $3 a place is more realistic.

The Have Nots (or more accurately the Have Not Yet's)


 Poste Restante looks comfortable racing at rating 65 level, she has stepped up recently in distance and slightly in class and been solid but unspectacular.  If Angleology was a filly, where would you rate him in the field after his Derby Performance? Probably not in the top 7, right?

Savasong might still be running the Lowlands Stakes. Forgive that race because of the conditions, and look at the 1800m second at New Plymouth as a better guide. Not exactly the stiffest competition, but signs point to her finishing the 2400m well.

Melody Celebre last ran over 1200m about 6 weeks ago. She will like a bit more distance, but this is double, she has run over 1600m a couple of times without success. What is the best case for her? I really don't know. She could win this, but it would require mass scratching for unknown reasons. 

Tilda was only 7.5 lengths away from Silent Achiever in the Avondale Guineas. Of course Silent Achiever walked in that race, and that put her behind 6 derby runners. She has had another lower grade start over 2100m since. She looks like she will be able to get the 2400m, but is out of her class here.

Asavant is probably the 'have not' to beat until the barrier draw. It is hard to see her figuring here. She raced in the same race at Trentham on the 28th of January as a number of these starters and finished 13th, she is probably better than that but not significantly.

Jungle Pago is consistent-ish, but hard to see her doing anything over 2400m based on the video of her last start.

Lady Plantinum has been there-or-thereabouts and getting better with distance. The set weight may actually hinder her chances. Although she is not in the class of a lot of these runners she is better than 100-1 would suggest and might be the "have not" to watch.

Manhattam Mam shouldn't be a threat in this race, it is a major step up in class.

Myminkcoat has a very cool name and has been consistent when the footing is good. She is one who should be suited to 2400m and almost closed enough to win last start over 2200m. Again 100-1 seems unfairly high, but I guess when your ceiling may be a top 6 finish it doesn't make a lot of difference.

The Picks
First - Planet Rock - I can't sleep on her, she is a Group 1 winner who has returned to form.
Second - Capital Diamond - Forget the last start (it was still a Group 3 Second), but the last two before that were so close.
Third - Splitsecond - I am buying the flying finish from the Sunline Vase
Fourth - Zurella - Reluctantly, I really wanted to pick Artistic, but I know I am too hard on Zurella and she will probably outperform my expectations.

Three Year Old Power Rankings March Edition

Many things have changed in the last month since the February Power Rankings,we have seen the running of the New Zealand Derby, the Sunline Vase, the Lowland Stakes, and the Mr Tiz Trophy. We have seen a possible return to prominence from Burgundy, and a surprising lack of prominence from Antonio Lombardo, as well as the retirement of Anabandana and Ocean Park heading off in search of his derby across the ditch.

Where does that put us in the Power Rankings?

The Anabandana situation is a mystery, she was second on this list last month, and although she would have dropped following her second, and ultimately final, start in Australia I didn't expect to see a retirement. I guess, much like Distil she will have to drop from the rankings, because if not racing I guess she doesn't qualify. What an outstanding career!

I have really loved this class of fillies, and we are looking at a great Oaks this weekend, we may see another filly on top of this list, but Ocean park has a chance to take a big step up this list as he taking on the Randwick Guineas this weekend.

Not sure what to make of Burgundy after the weekend, which is becoming like his nickname, he was probably never going to win a Derby, after watching the run on the weekend I am unsure if he was really ever going to win a guineas either, it was only a month ago when I wrote " I continue to think that if you raced all of these top 3YO's over 1200 or 1400m it would be a close race between him and Anabandana." It would have been awesome if I was writing about Burgundy, but I was actually talking about Antonio Lombardo. This really creates a puzzle. Burgundy looked very good, maybe he was always going to be a 1200m type horse. As it turns out this was the thinking from the connections as well. (although that article indicates it wont be in the thought process, do you think an Easter Handicap is too much of a stretch? we are still waiting on our first 3YO Group 1 winner at open level). Antonio Lombardo didn't really look as good as he did early in the Spring, maybe it was the dead track which had been raced on 24 times that week, or the extra weight he was carrying but he just didn't seem to have that same closing speed, did he do enough to remain in the top 10.

Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Anabandana (2) Sangster (8) Capital Diamond (10)

Honourable Mention
Anabandana (2, for reasons discussed above), Sangster (8, hard to leave out, his starts this prep have been over 1400m and 1600m, I would expect to see him back in this list once we get closer to 2000m ), Chicharita (Very narrow miss, testament to the quality of the 3YO's we are seeing), Capital Diamond (10, Fought on well in the wet, still a possible Oaks contender, 2400m should not be an issue), Duckworth Lewis (HM), Quintessential (HM), Travolta, Joy's Choice, Nashville (HM), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Glad (not currently Oak's nominated but Sleeper Alert!)

Number 10 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - Would have been hard to leave him off, I really expect to see him bounce back over his next start. He didn't look his best on the weekend, but I expect to see him back to it soon.


Number 9 - Ocean Park (9) - Big expectations around this Colt and what he can do in Sydney.


Number 8 - Knight's Tour (7) - What could have been? Not sure when he is coming back, hopefully he comes back as good has be looked before the injury.

Number 7 - Burgundy (HM) - Back up in the rankings following an impressive 1200m victory in a listed race the last day of Auckland Cup week. 

Number 6 - Artistic (HM) - Was her win the Sunline Vase better than Capital Diamond's second in the Lowland Stakes. The conditions were certainly better, it will be interesting to find out this Saturday.

Number 5 - Carrick (N/A) - Close up and fighting third in the Derby,  he is probably working with less talent wise than the first two on this list, but he showed a great effort and should continue to contend when the distance gets above 2000m.

Number 4 - Zurella (5) - Was good in the Derby for 5th in a race which probably wasn't ideal. She will want a dryer track in the Oaks, and although it feels (to me anyway) like there is still a question mark over 2400m she may challenge based on talent alone.

Number 3 - Planet Rock (6) - Back to her best when winning on Derby Day in the Hawkes Bay. She is an interesting one, I had to drop her down the list last time because she had two consecutive fourths, however I really felt that the Royal Stakes was justified because of the backing up from the week before and it was her first 2000m start. The following start in the Sir Tristram fillies I felt there were excuses, but it was maybe just not her day, she also finished behind three very good fillies. She is clearly class and can really prove it by beating a top Oak's field this weekend.

Number 2 - Rock'n'Pop (1) - Is it possible I have actually underrated him all year? How do you underrate a Group 1 winner? But he ran out a very strong Derby, prior to this the 3rd at Group 1 level was again excellent. The only time he didn't really fire was on a slow track in a meaningless race. I am still not even sure the distance or conditions for the Derby were really ideal, but he just showed his considerable talent.

Number 1 - Silent Achiever (4) - What more can I say? no, seriously, I have probably written about 5000+ words about her since December. She was amazing on the 3rd, it was a great win. It will be great to see what she can do in Australia. Is she as good as Jimmy Choux was last year? hard to say, I will need to think about that. I feel another breakdown coming on (although I was wrong about the last one I wrote).  She is a different horse than Jimmy Choux, she was always going to get better as we got up to 2400m, but maybe we will see them against each other next year over 2000m, that could be interesting. My gut says that Jimmy is better, but even if she is only as good as King's Rose, we are still looking at what will be an interesting 4YO year.

Value Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed, although I can say I will be Glad to see them when they are.
Long shot Oaks Proposition: Odds not currently listed

James McDonald's Quest for the Cup week Sweep

This is now a story. There was always a possibility it would become one and in some ways the two Group 1's McDonald has won were the easier of the two he will face this week. They were the ones he was probably expected to win. In other ways they were harder, there was enough that went wrong before and during those races that the victories were remarkable. He will ride Scarlett Lady and Rollout the Carpet on Saturday in his quest to sweep the Auckland Cup week Group 1's.

James McDonald calls Ellerslie his favourite track. I don't think anyone would disagree with him. Durham Town, Silent Achiever, Fix, Peridot, Between the Beats, and Shez Sensational have won this Auckland Cup week with him on board. Fix was another in a long line of wins in the first race of the day at Ellerslie yesterday. His strike rate is currently a ridiculous 4.41, that should mean with the nine rides he currently has booked for Saturday there are two winners in that group, I am sure the ones he wants the most are the Diamond Stakes and the New Zealand Stakes.

The New Zealand Derby last Saturday, James McDonald was riding Silent Achiever. The ground was possibly not as suitable as they would have liked, there was not a lot of pace in the race for Silent Achiever a horse who typically likes to race towards the back of the pack. It was evident from the relief shown by Roger James when they interviewed him after the victory that although he felt he had the horse with the most talent, he was not sure if things were lining up exactly how he wanted. After the race James McDonald admitted he didn't ride exactly to instructions and Silent Achiever slipped leaving the gates, judging from the after race comments analysts felt that possibly Silent Achiever hit the front earlier than she normally would have. What I liked about the ride was the point about 1400m to go when she was third from last and James McDonald moved her up, three wide, but closer to the pace. As they hit the 800m mark there is probably only 9 runners ahead of him, it was an excellent place for him to be when they started the sprint for home. As it was she won comfortably, but if he had been further back who knows, maybe she gets blocked or simply out sprinted. He really seemed to always have that race under his control from about 350m, every time another runner battled closer he asked her for more and she gave it.

In the Auckland Cup yesterday, as trainer Allan Sharrock said in his interview after the race "what else could go wrong" (in the video in the link, you need to sign up to view it, but it is free). He even basically said that the rain that had started about an hour before the race had put him off having a big bet on the horse because of the uncertainty in the conditions. Given what we saw on Saturday it would be hard not to be concerned at that point. During the running of the race George Simon made several comments about the position of Shez Sensational. "the favourite's under a ride" was his call as James McDonald went to work on her about 450m to go, he was probably one of the first Jockeys to make a move in the race. He then had to work a bit to find a hole, but Shez Sensational responded when he finally did. George Simon mentions she is warming up as they pass the 300m mark, but she really hits her stride with about 200m to go and just had too much top speed chasing down Spiro on the line.

Clearly we are looking at a very talented Filly and Mare, but everything didn't go their way, and those were very strong rides to allow the horses to show their best.

Now the question remains, can he go four for four?

The next Auckland Cup week Group 1 is the first Group 1 for the Two year olds the Diamond Stakes over 1200m. James McDonald is riding equal second favourite Rollout the carpet. There is a lot of talent in this race when you look at Choice Bro, Warhorse, Travino, Silk Pins and Croatia amongst others.

Choice Bro has shown eye catching finishes in the Karaka Million (fourth) and winning over Ockhams Razor last start at Taranaki. He has had the benefit of good draws to date and has performed best on a good track, he may not have either on Saturday. The blinkers which came on last start seemed to make a difference. He will be finishing big, but probably down the outside as opposed to the inside as in recent starts.

Warhorse is having his first start in over a month, however he has tended to race with these kind of gaps to date in his career so that should not effect him. A Group 3 winner with talent, he really charged home in the Karaka Million. He is already establishing a strong record at Ellerslie and his win there on New Years day was on a rain effected track. He has the benefit of a better draw so might be able to start his run from a handier position this time.

Travino had his first start back in New Zealand in the Matamata Slipper two weeks ago. The dead track gave him only his second non-win in the New Zealand since his first start (on a slow track). That was his first start in about 6 weeks, his wins have come with 14days, 14days and 21days rest, so expect a better showing here. He has drawn barrier one which should allow him to stay handy $9 fixed odds seems pretty good value if the rain stays away.

Croatia is having his third start. After winning on debut he was able to show a big finish to behind Irish Rebel and Magic Shaft. He has to be confided a contender here.

Mai Guru is having his first start since his fifth in the Karaka Million. I was slightly surprised by that fifth, he seemed to outperform other horses who I might have expected better from. This race is just stacked and he will have to show improvement to finish ahead of Silk Pins, Choice Bro, and Warhorse.

Roof of Reckoning is a maiden runner who was able to show something at Matamata, hard to know if possibly wet ground might help. He looks reasonably talented, but there are some classy runners to beat here.

King Zeus is having his second start and will go from barrier 6. He seemed to improve with trialing and was favourite in his first start. He was beaten by Fix over 1000m, who went on to have a good win on Auckland Cup day. King Zeus showed good fight but was worn down late. I suspect he may be fitter for the run and 1200m may suit.

Rollout the Carpet for James McDonald has drawn 11, but is coming off a form line which looks the same in the race book (1 and 1 been the results of his last two runs). The second win was in the Matamata Breeders Stakes at Group 2 level. She has beaten the fillies, so the question becomes can she beat the boys too? She is good and has looked it in her last two starts. Wetness underfoot does not appear to be an issue. Barrier number 11 may not be a problem if she gets out as well as she has recently, she will want to be handy and in a position to lead them home.

Seleno was very eye catching at New Plymouth last start, she was wide and back and simply flew home. If the track is wet it will suit and you suspect that 2nd up may help. The draw should suit and if she is closer to them starting her run, look out!

Silk Pins was great in the Karaka Million. Before the Karaka Million her record is deceiving, she didn't get a lot of luck in those races. Was third in the Matamata breeders stakes and didn't look as good that day. Happy to give her a chance, but I have a concern on wet ground based on the slow track  New Years day at Ellerslie.

Soriano is currently undefeated. She was a winner late last week at Te Rapa. She is a bit of an enigma here, the win looked very good, but there is a lot of solid exposed form here.

Coat du Roan was good when 6th at Taranaki, was also unlucky when caught up by Ockham's Razor. Throw that race out and there is less to go on. She is almost certainly better than a $41 chance, but you could only take her on potential. Chateauneuf Dupape ran third in this race last year, as that is in the Rhone region maybe a horse called Coat du Roan can feature this year.

The Picks (I am assuming this forecast rain clears and we get back to a good or dead track)
First - Warhorse - This looks much more suitable than the Karaka Million.

Second - Rollout the Carpet - Looks talented, I have spent 1,500 words explaining how this could be Jame McDonald's week.
Third - Choice Bro - Like Rollout the Carpet the draw is a concern, there is no doubt of the talent. He will be coming on at the end.
Fourth - Seleno - Big finish, if she was 6th instead of 9th back she may have won, she will be closer from barrier 2.

In the New Zealand Stakes James McDonald will ride Scarlett Lady against a strong Group 1 field. Veyron is certainly the most dangerous after winning back to back Group 1's and showing that the step to middle distance is not so big after-all on Boxing Day, he loves this track and will be very hard to beat.

Veyron all but eliminated middle distance questions on Boxing Day. I also think his build up to this race has been far better than the build up to boxing day. He will handle all tracks so weather concerns should not be an issue.

Hold it Harvey is always consistent at Group 1 level. He came for them late when stepping back to 1600m at Otaki and was second to Shez Sensational at Te Rapa before that. This is a rare trip to Ellerslie and right handed, but he is hitting the strongest part of his campaign and he is better than when he was last here boxing day 2010.

Doctor Fremantle was good for a surprising third here on Boxing Day.  He didn't get a lot of breaks last time in Hamilton. This is a big ask but he is capable of running in the money.

Showcause has basically been weighted out of the Open Handicap level (although it would have been interesting to see him yesterday). Although he didn't come back the strongest at New Plymouth that is not surprising. He is yet to feature second up either, a stat which is countered by his strong Ellerslie record. He gets better third up, and you might expect he can do something here but not enough to win.

Vosne Romanee won this race two years ago and surprised for a place last year. His last two starts have actually shown a bit of a (relative) resurgence in the nine year old gelding. Don't completely dismiss for old times sake, but there are a lot of better places for your money.

Riomoral has been a big improver over the last couple of months. WFA Group 1 seems a bit optimistic, but the steps towards middle distance have suited him.

Postmans Daughter probably needed a run between the Darci Brahma and this and she got in over 1600m in a Group 1 at Otaki. That was never going to be the ideal race for her but this is definitely where she will look at home. She seems to respond better to 2000m+ and going right handed, drawn barrier 1 will help too. This race looks perfectly set up for her, but it is hard to see her beating Veyron or Scarlett Lady.

Lady Kipling performed very strongly over 1600m at Otaki. She had her first win at Ellerslie two starts back but has twice been fourth at Group 1 level. She has been very consistent recently and the move up to 2000m should put her in a good position.

Scarlett Lady will face her first big test since returning from injury. If this race was run in the spring she probably would have been sole favourite. She has had 1 run back for 1 win but this is tougher. 2000m will surely suit her and she wont mind any rain. She has always been consistent, it was really unfortunate to see injury derailing her spring because she really could have made some noise in Melbourne last year.

Inferno is making her first trip to the big city following a pretty strong run in Matamata last start. This will be a major test but the distance should suit and around 8th up should see her peaking. It is a big ask.

Shuka is trying to become the first 3YO to win an Open level Group 1 this season. Twice in his career he has backed up in under a week and he has run second both times. The step back to 2000m should assist his chances. He is an absolute winning chance here, but yet again he might just be facing too much talent, which has been the story of his career to date.

I hate to go chalk, but it is hard to look past the favourites in this race. Who will win? toss a coin, it could be that close. We have not seen a big Group 1 shock this year, The Party Stand was somewhat of a shock winning this last year.

The Picks
First - Veyron - It just feels like he has put in the work to establish himself as favourite. Winning back to back Group 1's. The 2000m looks right for him and that Ellerslie record is superb.
Second - Scarlett Lady - Can win this based just on class. I think she will take a couple more races to get back to her absolute best, not sure where that will be, Australia?
Third - Postmans Daughter - I think the return to right handed should suit enough for her to improve on the Waikato run.
Fourth - Lady Kipling - Talent on the rise, could be the Cup week shock.

That was tough, I switched 1 and two back and forth several times and also changed up third and fourth with the mares and Hold it Harvey. I think it would pay to keep them safe on the weekend.

Auckland Cup Preview 2012

Amongst the hype of Derby Day you may have missed it, but Titch won his second consecutive Auckland Cup. Preview over. Thanks for reading.

Of course the Auckland Cup is not actually run until later on this afternoon, but Titch ran second in the Nathan's Memorial, a race which has recently been an excellent indicator of Auckland Cup success. It was a close finish, but lucky for him he didn't win, otherwise we would be talking about the Jungle Boy right now. If all of this sounds familiar that is because it is, Titch ran second in this race last year behind Solid Billing (that was another very tight finish on a rain effected track) who went on to run 10th in the Auckland Cup. Forget about Minquar Quaim from two years ago. Three Years ago Spin Around was chased down by Capecover in the Nathan's memorial, he turned the tide the following Wednesday finishing 8 places ahead of Capecover and winning the Cup. Unfortunately, Prize Lady decided to ruin things by not running in the Nathan's Memorial in either 2008 or 2007, running 3rd and 4th in the Auckland Cup prelude (which would now have been the Avondale Cup), she also ran 3rd in that race in 2009.

Where does this leave us in regard to this years Auckland Cup? I really don't know.

A 3200m Open Handicap is a very strange thing. They are so few and far between that many starters will not have run over this distance or run over it very few times. Often prior to running 3200m horses have been racing over 2400m or shorter, that is 800m shorter, so success does not always correlate. It is always interesting to see horses who are 'out of form' when talking about shorter distances stepping up with that further 800m and turning into contenders. Today I wanted to break down the positives and negatives for the runners and look at who can contend.

#1 Six O'Clock News, Barrier 6, 59kg 
The Positives
Is back in form recently and actually winning taking out the Wellington Cup (2400m). He has run 5th and 7th in this race in the past when he has been in similar form. Barrier 6 should see him reasonably well placed in the running to avoid any extra distance. The track should be good for him too.
My Concerns 
Carrying 59kg effectively rules him out for me. He carried 56kg to win the Wellington Cup, and 59kg when last (at WFA) in Hamilton next start.  

#2 Booming, Barrier 20, 58kg
The Positives
He seems to get better with a bit more distance, he looked to improve stepping up from 2000m to 2400m and has placed in his only 3200m start. Auckland also seems to be a track which will see him show an above average performance. Eye catching in the Avondale Cup, was really running on well and drops a kg from that start. 
My Concerns
Although solid this campaign, he has not really found the same form from a year ago. He has been close but until the Avondale Cup has not shown his best. He is facing a big field and will be coming from an outside barrier, he would normally look to come from towards to the back, but over 3200m the possibility of racing wide is very real.


#3 Titch, Barrier 12, 57.5kg
The Positives
Clearly a horse capable of winning over 3200m. Ran home well over the finial stages for second in the Nathan's Memorial.Was able to carry the 57.5kg on the weekend when second, and has carried more recently.
My Concerns
Carrying 3kg more than he carries a year ago in this race for victory. Although he is a Group 1 winner, his previous two wins have been for 15k and 20k and at courses abbreviated TAUH and WROA. I googled these to discover they are Wairoa and Tauherenikau, again I turned to Google to discover Wairoa is in the northern Hawkes Bay and Tauherenikau is in Martinborough, which is in the Wairarapa. Whilst I will apologise for my geographical ignorance, it is evident he has not been facing the toughest of competition since his Auckland Cup victory.

#4 Spiro, Barrier 3, 57.5kg
The Positives
Has looked in good form with strong performances carrying more weight in the Wellington and Taranaki Cups. He definitely gets better with racing, this is his 9th start up this time which should see him at peak performance. He stepped back from 2400m in the Wellington Cup to 1800m, and it looked like a few more meters might have been helpful. He showed good fight in Wellington when Six O'Clock News was too good, 3200m will be a first.
My Concerns
He is not only venturing to Ellerslie for the first time, he will be having his first start right handed. Is this a question mark we should be thinking about? It is also his first 3200m start, although he has shown it is likely to not be too big of a concern.

#5 Shez Sensational, Barrier 19, 55kg
The Positives
She will carry only 55kg on a decent surface. She is a dual Group 1 winner this year already and has shown her ability to stay in Queensland last winter.
My Concerns
He run on the weekend, but they have really been addressed by James McDonald after that race. The distance is still a concern, and the wide draw could always lead to an difficult position, but it might be less critical with 3200m to run, particularity given James McDonald's ability to read a race a break from the norm as required, like we saw on Silent Achiever on Saturday.

#6 Single Minded, Barrier 11, 54kg
The Positives
Won the Avondale Cup in strong fashion. Has been very consistent of late rising through the grades as a stayer. He has performed well at Ellerslie and will actually carry less weight here than in either of his last two victories.
My Concerns
He possibly still lacks experience and is still getting used to running against this level of competition. 3200m is an unknown, and this is tougher than either of his last wins in Auckland.

#7 The Jungle Boy, Barrier 17, 54kg
The Positives
Finally broke his duck at Ellerslie with a win in his 11th start, is this the start of a streak? or will there be another gap between victories? He showed a good finish on the weekend and will again reduce his weight by 1.5kg. Placed over 3200m.
My Concerns
His overall record at Ellerslie is no good, although as I have written before there is not really a logical reason for that. He does like a wet surface, he will be unlikely to see that later today.

#8 Blood Brotha, Barrier 8, 54kg
The Positives
New Zealand Cup winner who is only carrying .5kg more from that race. Gets better over more ground. Good third in the Avondale Cup which looked to signal a bit of a return to form. This will be the first time with the same jockey back to back since February 2011. He might be getting back to best form at the right time.
My Concerns
Last two victories have come on Heavy tracks including the New Zealand Cup victory.


#9 Back in Black, Barrier 1, 54kg
The Positives
Last start was his best run since the spring. Will be able to race to his strength and stay handy from the inside barrier.The Jungle Boy broke a long Ellerslie drought on Saturday, maybe he will follow suit. 54kg is a lot lighter than recent runs, may be some merit.
My Concerns
Horrible Ellerslie record, no wins from 16 attempts (like the Jungle Boy it is surprising considering he has an otherwise strong right handed record). Tends to win early, is now 15th up. The biggest race he has won was worth $40k. Yet to win, or place, over 2000m.

#10 Castle Heights, Barrier 21, 54kg
The Positives
Placed in this race a year ago. Was pretty good up until the Avondale Cup. He should be able to show a strongish finish in this race. Down to 54kg which is still 2kg more than a year ago, but much lighter than recent starts.
My Concerns
Has not actually won since 2009. Would have expected a better Avondale Cup run as was looking in better form before that. He is drawn one of the widest,

#11 Loose Change, Barrier 23, 53.5kg
The Positives
Very experienced at 2400m, finishing off races well most of the time recently. Will get a good track which is what he needs. He looks to improve with a bit more racing, so should be ready to put forward a good effort.
My Concerns
Possibly looks a bit outclassed in this field. Limited experience at Ellerslie or on right handed tracks. 53.5kg is light, but has not really been carrying that much more when losing in pretty strong races. Drawn way outside.


#12 Aussieaussieaussie, Barrier 4, 52.5kg
The Positives
Had his best result in the North Island recently,  he does tend to get better with a bit of racing, so he could go well in this type of race.
My Concerns
Has never won outside of the South Island. He tends to get better on a wetter surface. He has never won over more than 1800m. Given a lack of strong 2400m performances you have to be concerned about the 3200m trip.

#13 Yours, Barrier 22, 52.5kg
The Positives
Close up to Titch two starts back while carrying 59kgs. Has now had two starts over the distance, with a good performance for 4th in the New Zealand Cup.
My Concerns
Was second last in the Avondale Cup, that was a tough race, but this is tougher, was running on, but will only carry 1kg less.

#14 Options, Barrier 7, 52kg
The Positives
Genuine lightweight chance, in form and has looked good winning on the course. Always a lightweight runner who shows up strong for a race like this. Was very impressive over 2000m winning easily at Matamata. Adjusting well to racing in the North Island.
My Concerns
Longest win/race has only been 2100m, this is a lot further. New to the open handicap level, has been improving but Group 1 level should represent a step up.

#15 Innocent Lady, Barrier 24, 52kg
The Positives
Lightweight chance who has previously looked decent running over 3200m. Was not in great form prior to 4th in this race last year.She is definitely one of those runners when I see the distance I get a bit more interested, and when I see that weight I sort of think "Really! only 52 kilos?"
My Concerns
Far from best form, has had a very bad year to date. Badly drawn. Despite my first reaction I watched the Avondale Cup, I don't think she really can figure here.

#16 Peace Lilly, Barrier 7, 52kg
The Positives
A runner who seems to be getting better at running at open handicap level, the think I like is that while this is a step up from Rating 85, she was at the top of that grade and carrying high weights, the drop to 52kg is very tempting. Has done well at racing and 5 of her 6 wins have been right handed.
My Concerns
She has possibly performed best recently on tracks which are more rain effected, but has a consistent overall record on all tracks. This still seems like a step up in class from the races she has been winning.

#17 Jaffa Jack, Barrier 10, 52kg
The Positives
 Jaffa Jack has performed well over more distance, probably 3200m will suit given the strength he has shown over distance on wet tracks.
My Concerns
It is going to be a bit too dry for this stayer to feature. A seven year old with 22 career starts, who has only recently been running at open level, even with the lightweight this is a step up.

#18 Top Spot, Barrier 11, 52kg
The Positives
Has performed well carrying similar weights in races over 2400m.  He has performed well at Ellerslie recently, particularly the 3rd in the City of Auckland Cup carrying more weight.
My Concerns
Ideally you would probably want a slightly wetter track to see his best. Last win was first up over 1400m at rating 85 level, this is a lot tougher.

The Picks
Value Win - Options ($12) - Pretty good for a chance to win at that light weight.
Value Place - Top Spot ($9) - I could actually see it winning, but it is a bit tough, it is definitely a place chance and $9 is pretty good value for the place.
Longest shot I can see coming - Top Spot ($31) - If things go right I could see it.

First -  Single Minded - ($6.50) - Was so impressive in the Avondale Cup, I can see him going on here and stepping up over 3200m.
Second - Shez Sensational - ($1.40p) - Simply too classy not to be in the picture.
Third - Options - ($4p) - A leightweight should figure here.
Fourth - Spiro - ($5.20p) - I think think he will figure in this race, I think 3200m is looking light the right distance and I can see him winning this. 


There are so many chances, I really find it hard to completely rule out anyone under the $21 mark. I think Shez Sensational is clearly the most talented, but there is definitely some concerns from the weekend run.

Previewing Derby Day

I have gone into a lot of detail about the actual Telecom New Zealand Derby, but there is a lot of great racing action happening at Ellerslie at TV3 Derby Day. Any day when you have $20,000 maidens will be a day where you attract the top talent available.

Lindaeur 1400, Maiden
5 Eastward - Bad luck in Hamilton last start, missed the start and fighting for a run, however wound up well. 1400m looks idea, drawn barrier one will hopefully give him more room.
1 American Idol - Consistently strong in first two starts, an extra 100m to 1400m Saturday. Both runners to beat him last start were already race winners.

3 El Volante - Was so close to breaking Maiden ranks last start over 1400m, showed a strong finish, narrowly missing out to a runner who was not far away up in grade next start. Forget the 1600m last start, it feels like 1400m will suit.

9 Impy Luis - Far more consistency shown this prep, it looks like taking on 1400m will suit as she will be fitter for the runs back, possible value.

Stella Artois 2100m, Special Conditions 2100m
8 Grande Bellezza - Good experience over this kind of distance and running in bigger maiden and Special conditions races. Kept giving a lot last start, you cannot find too many faults with the run, was simply beaten by a better horse who is a Derby chance.
6 Rhythm Divine - A runner who has shown some ability at Ellerslie and with some moisture around. Claiming 3kg. She has been running in strong maidens and Special conditions races. Quick over the last 600m last start. The step to 2100m will appeal.
7 Te Ariki - Looks a genuine stayer at 4YO, already has five runs over 2000m and seems best suited to 2100m, can see it winning this.
2 Roddick - Maybe has not quite been competing against the same level of competition recently, however the victory last start was strong and a repeat performance here would see him in the money most likely.

TV3 Nathan's Memorial 2200m, Open Handicap
2 Shez Sensational - She really lives up to the name. Looking to back up on Wednesday in the Cup one would assume. Handicap conditions see her carry 59kgs, 2200m is more distance than her starts this prep, but she has placed in a Derby and an Oaks in the past.
3 The Jungle Boy - Will be one hoping for rain. He is getting closer to breaking that Ellerslie jinx, this is slightly easier than the Avondale Cup so he can hopefully go one or two better than fourth.
1 Titch - Gets better with racing and looks good after winning his last two starts particularly after taking the 2kg claim into account. This race is tougher, but he has a shining Ellerslie record, and if there is rain around he will be in his element.
6 Azincourt - He tends to get better with racing. His distance record is interesting recently, when he runs 2000m he looks like she needs more distance, when he runs 2100 or 2200m he looks a bit spent. Drawn well and handles damper conditions, can he be another to challenge his Ellerslie Jinx? 

The Gucci Mile, 3YO 1600m
7 Abeautifulred - A filly I have liked since the Guineas, always competitive and has been racing against top company in the 3YO ranks. A step back to 1600m should see her on top.
1 Kings Fortune - Showed significant promise recently but the weight is a concern, it is difficult not to have him in the mix on recent results.
8 Full of Spirit - if you watch the last two starts you will see a horse ready for 1600m, has been running in solid races and looks well suited here.
3 Hexie Hao - Has come on in January, this is tougher, but with the claim and impressively consistent record he should be considered here.

Barfoot and Thompson Mile, Rating 85 1600m
6 Rasteau - Consistent and in form, forget the run two starts back we should see another strong finish over 1600m.
8 Essaouria - Always close, 1600m record is great and seems to handle all conditions so far. Back up in grade but will only have to carry 54kg
5 Platinum Dancer - Flying to finish third in a similar race recently, will have an extra 200m to handle but it looks like he is ready for that.

4 Steel Giant - Don't know much about this horse returning from Hong Kong, usually runners struggle with the conditions or the change in location but he has a good enough overall record that he is worth considering.

The New Zealand Herald 1400, Rating 65 1400m
4 Positive Energy - Close to two from two at 1400m last start. That was impressive because he ran three and four wide early and showed a big finish. Looks like he will be a threat when he steps up to 1600m but for now 1400m looks a good trip.

5 Have no Mercy - Has talent and will claim 3kg, has placed 2 of 3 runs at Ellerslie and wont mind the wet conditions predicted. Last start over 1400m was very good where there was a lot of fight shown.
9 Ishimine - Has been running on this type of premier day recently, was very good two starts back weaving through traffic for 4th, the 3rd at Matamata was distant, but it looks as if 1400m should see her in this.
13 Bead of Courage - Possible value runner, both wins have come over 1400m and on rain effected tracks, will claim 3kg down to very little weight. Won third and fourth up last prep so should come on with the first up start.

Darley Plate, Group 3 1200m
3 Justanexcuse - A lot to like in this race, he has been racing over more distance but has an impressive 1200m record. He has been freshened since January and he goes very well in that state, he will not be concerned by the rain and barrier 10 shouldn't concern given he will likely go back anyway.
1 Durham Town - Very unlucky last start, the fall by Vinnie Colgan was nasty and could have been much worse as he was very close to the rail. He has an Ellerslie and 1200m record similar to Veyron and he seems to be getting better. My concern is that the times he has failed to place at Ellerslie have both been on rain effected tracks. He is undefeated after a spell like he has just had.
5 Vonusti - Although he has been taking on more ground recently he has had a month off and brought back to the distance in which he is a Group 1 winner. 55kg's appeals, he has a good record at Ellerslie and will handle any moisture in the ground. He was running in pretty good form prior to Christmas and this looks a bit easier than some recent starts.
4 Ourforeignminister - Was pretty good in the winter and spring last year. 1200m is probably short of ideal, but I like his chances to do something resuming on what is likely to be a rain effected track.

George FM 2100, Rating 75 over 2100m

3 Captian Marvel - Aside from the one slow track he has encountered he has won or placed in each start to date, will probably figure here.
12 La Veinne - Another runner on the rise, well weighted here with a distance which suits. Seems to have struggled getting away from barrier one, but a threat with a good trip.
2 Payback - Good course and distance record, will handle the wet, claiming 1kg and looks suited to 2100m. Could be value.
10 Bellino - Looked good on the track over 1600m, really came for them into 3rd, he has always gone well over a bit more distance so could be right in this.

New Zealand Derby
I have written an in-depth derby preview here.

Auckland 1400, Rating 75 1400m

3 C'est Magnifique - Goes well fresh, rain is a question mark but he looks to have a lot of talent, there are a lot of chances in this race but he looks very good.
1 Islington Bay - Second race in 3 years, a great effort first up, an extra 100m here suits as does the 3kg claim if the conditions are wet.
8 Lovesite - Is probably looking for more distance, but the claim and wet track effort makes this look like a suitable race on the way to more distance.
9 The Captain - Has not had many attempts right handed, but 1400m and a wet track should suit, seems to go well with some racing, definitely a chance.

2012 New Zealand Derby Preview

This Saturday we are sure to witness a great New Zealand Derby. I have decided to dust off the gimmick I used for the Melbourne Cup last year and pick the result from 17th to first. The field is set, the odds are out, the main unknown is the weather, it is looking reasonably dicey with rain forecast leading up to and on the day. Could we be looking at a third rain effected derby in the last four years? Last year it didn't matter, Jimmy Choux was simply more talented than the remainder of the field, this year? well I think this is already going to be a close race between the main contenders, I think there are some longer shots who can figure, and I think rain could be a great leveler.

(Note: I will be highlighting races to watch for each of the runners, you can watch these by following the link to the NZ Racing website, you will have to sign up, but it is free)


17th Guess What
Jockey: Noel Harris

Barrier: 12
Best race to watch: He ran fourth behind Shuka, Ocean Park and Silent Achiever in the Waikato Guineas, It was a pretty good effort where he kept trying to fight.
What has he done since? Given the guineas fight it is hard to understand the last place without any fight in the Avondale Guineas a couple of weeks later, he has again only had two weeks off, so it is hard to know if you should expect a better effort.
Best case: On the Waikato run you might expect him to travel well and run home well. He may take a lead and holding it until after the turn only to be out sprinted by the big guns falling down to 7th.


16th Barney
Jockey: Craig Grylls
Barrier: 17
Best Race to Watch: The Mad Butcher Championship Stake Prelude, I know his odds made a move for the win a couple of starts later at Matamata, but that was a good Third to a good horse in Duckworth Lewis. He ran well over the 2100m and seemed to find a bit more when he needed it over the last 200m.
What has he done since? He has ran against some good horses without the success, but it is important to note he has been racing at a high level. His win was over 2000m, but it was a $5,000 maiden, when stepping back up in the Waikato Guineas he seemed to fight to the line, but was not a contender. Barrier 17 will worry, has been reasonably handy over the last three, he may find himself in no mans land on Saturday.
Best Case:  Is 3 wide, but finds cover, never gives up and beats a couple of tired ones into 12th. His connections have a fun day seeing their horse in the Derby.

15th Mr Chez
Jockey: Sam Spratt
Barrier: 2
Best race to watch: Two starts back at Waikato in the New Zealand Bloodstock Premier he looked good, he really dominated a Rating 65 field over 2100m (well everyone except for Sir Tane), but that is what you would probably expect from a Victorian Derby runner at Rating 65 level.
What has he done since? Was not as good in the Avondale Guineas, finishing well behind Roamin for 6th and possibly delayed Colorado Sun from making a run to beat him.
Best case: He recaptures the consistency which saw him run 3rd in the Geelong Classic, he shows more of a finish and excels over 2400m to slide into 6th place.

14th Roamin

Jockey: Trudy Thornton

Barrier: 6

Best race to watch: Kate and 'The Master' 2100 , I liked this first victory, it was a big field, not really of the same caliber he will face on Saturday, but Leith Innes did a great job finding a place to settle and the horse  really lifted and responded to challenges over the final 250m.

What has he done since: He went to Auckland and didn't do a lot, followed by another win at Rating 65 level over 2000m at Te Awamutu, he then stepped up in the Avondale Guineas running a fairly close 5th behind four derby starters. He didn't look too bad that day, but looked far short of the class of Silent Achiever.

Best case: The barrier should suit and he may get a similar trip to the race in Hamilton, which would be an improvement on some of his recent starts. He is able to put on a show but finds himself dropping backwards over the final 200m into 9th. Auckland has been a bit of a troubled spot for this horse, which might be simply representative of the level of competition he faces when he races here.

13th Colorado Sun
Jockey: Patrick Holmes
Barrier: 13
Best race to watch: Irwins Truck and Bus Sales 1580 It was a pretty good third after getting away slowly, there seemed to be pace on and he was able to go past most of the field to hit the lead, he finished third, but still seemed to run on well.
What has he done since? Had a race in the Avondale Guineas and was handily beaten by six derby starters, the excuse may be that he was hindered for a good run, he did seem to move a bit when he got space, but at that stage it was a bit too late.
Best Case: Will likely go back from barrier 13 and be close to Silent Achiever, the best case is to hope for the speed to be on a bit and to follow the horse who has a nose for the finish line as far as possibly before fading into 8th.

12th Zurella
Jockey:
Barrier: 7
Best Race to watch: If you had a look at the Sir Tristram Fillies earlier to focus on other runners, have another look at Zurella's impressive victory. It looks a bit closer than it is, technically she only won by a long head, but she was heading in the right direction at the end. I particularly liked the extra effort over the last 50 meters to seal victory. The horses she beat that day were as good as any other 3YO field assembled this season other than the 1000 and 2000 guineas and probably the Eight Carat Classic.
What has she done since? That was her last start, it expelled any concerns about 2000m, but maybe 2400m is still concerning, also the predicted weather is a worry given the Royal Stakes result.
Best Case: The weather gods smile and the overnight rain stays away and sun is prevalent to burn the revellers and keep the track dry, she is able to get out of the barrier well and travel well, she is challenged about 300m out by Silent Achiever and Rock'n'Pop after she hits the lead but she is able to dig in and hold on to beat them in a close photo. I just feel that one of the main contenders is likely to falter and given the rain forecast I think she could be the one (if the rain stays away I see her around 4th)

11th Nine Pin
Jockey: Danielle Johnson

Barrier: 1
Best Race to watch: Have a look at his last start in the Collett Racing Stables 2200m, A pretty good second, close to a victory, but showed pretty good fight.
What has he done since? That was his last start it was about two weeks ago.
Best case: I actually quite like this horse, I think he is consistent and I really thought he would be higher in this list, but there is probably just a bit too much class here to put him higher. The best case could involve him getting out of barrier one well and staying handy to show the same fight and consistency into a top 5 finish.

10th Jeroboam
Jockey: TBA
Barrier:10
Best race to watch: The Auckland Co-Op Taxi's mile in  December, he ran a pretty good third, and looked to be running on. The main reason to watch that race is that you get to see Silent Achiever win her first race.
What has he done since? He was able to break maidens next start, he ran a good looking second on Avondale Guineas day over 2100m, again he showed signs of hitting the line well.
Best case: He goes well at Ellerslie, he races better handy. If he is able to find a nice trailing run he might be able to stick with the leaders and hold on as they pull away to finish 5th.


9th Carrick
Jockey: Leith Innes
Barrier: 15
Best Race to watch: The Avondale Guineas is probably the best display. It was a good third, but he still trailed Shuka and Silent Achiever. He seemed to go very early in that race and was able to hold on well.
What has he done since? This is his first race since then, he will be better for the start over 2100m.
Best case: He again is not one who has looked to push forward in races, the lack of speed, may change up the tactics, but should at least give him time to find somewhere to settle. I can't really separate Travolta and Carrick, both look decent, but hard to see him featuring in the finish, possibly 3rd or 4th as a best case. 

8th Angelology

Jockey: Kelly Myers

Barrier:  3

Best race to watch: The St Ledger Trial is a good example, maybe he didn't have to beat the biggest or most threatening field, but it was a good example of a first run over 2100m, and  he ran it out well.

What has he done since? That was his last start, so will be backing up a week later for this, he has done that a couple of times and won both times.

Best case: You suspect this is far more difficult than anything he has faced, but the fact he has raced without really facing any other contenders, or really even taking on any horses who have also been racing against other runners in this field makes him somewhat of an unknown. He will be the likely leader, particularly from barrier 3, and in a race without a lot of pace or other likely leaders (really only Guess What and Shuka have really led races in the past) he will probably be able to dictate terms, this really could be a sprint finish with a lot of fresh horses. The best case is definitely him taking advantage of the fact his capabilities are unknown and taking off on the corner and stealing victory.

7th Travolta
Jockey: Mark Hills
Barrier: 14
Best Race to Watch: Have a look at him winning over 1600m in Wellington three starts back, he continued to lift to victory on a dead track.
What has he done since? He ran a pretty good fourth in the Avondale guineas after failing at Rating 75 level first time over more than 1600m.
Best Case: I really thought this horse looked great before the Avondale Guineas, he seemed taller and bigger, and looked ready to go. His forth was reasonable and he ran on well, but barrier 14 is a bit off putting. Again the lack of speed may suit and allow him to find cover, if he is able to wind up he could ruin or add value to a few Trifectas by running 3rd.

6th Ocean Park
Jockey: Chad Ormsby
Barrier: 4
Best Race to watch: He was amazing winning the Phil Cataldo Bloodstock Wellington Stakes. Wow, he just kept finding and left them all in his wake.
What has he done since? He looked good in Waikato but was outgunned by Silent Achiever.
Best Case: Barrier four should suit, I am sure they would like to have a eye on Silent Achiever, and typically he has shown strong finishes from distance behind the leaders which is similar to the filly, but from that draw he could put himself in a nice handy position only a few back on the rial, so it will be interesting. The best case is a nice trip, saving his run, showing the ability to hold back and make a late charge like that race in Wellington. He is strong and consistent, rain is a question mark, but he might be too powerful. The rain is a concern enough for me to drop him a couple of spots from where I have him on a good track (3rd behind Rock'n'pop and Silent Achiever).

5nd Rock'n'Pop
Jockey: Matthew Cameron
Barrier: 9

Best Race to Watch: Have a look at his last start against the older horses at WFA level. Forget Shez Sensational, she smashed'em. The pace was off, he was last on the turn and continued to warm up coming home, looking great hitting the line and probably making some ground.
What has he done since? That was his last start, he has had three weeks off, which appears to suit.
Best Case: I read they are going to want to ride him a bit more handy (I can't remember where so I can't include a link), that may suit from barrier 9 you can expect him three or back, with that finish and a bit more distance this strong colt overpowers them and keeps giving making it impossible to Silent Achiever and Ocean Park to catch him. Rain might be the biggest concern which is why I have dropped him from where I would see him in a dry track (2nd), I think if he is handy without much pace on he could still really finish strongly and not be caught.


4th Red Shift
Jockey:
Barrier: 5
Best Race to Watch: Westbury Stud New Zealand-made Stayers 2100m. He beat an interesting field comprising of a couple of competitors he will face Saturday and a couple of others who have raced in other feature races.He had to work for a run, took a while to wind up, but was coming home strongly.
What has he done since? Forgive the next start at Ellerslie, it was not the best effort, but he seemed to get away awkwardly, he still showed fight and covered the 2100m well. He really took a while to wind up, probably 300m before he really started making ground over the final 100m, maybe the extra Derby distance is a blessing.
Best Case: He gets out of the barriers well and stays the the first half of the field. He winds up well and really puts on a show as others are not staying the 2400m lifting to finish 2nd.

3rd Shuka
Jockey: Hayden Tinsley
Barrier: 16th
Best Race to Watch: Watch the Avondale Guineas again, while I think his chances her are hurt by the fact that Silent Achiever is cruising home. I watched that race live, I thought he was gone at the 150m mark which was close to where I was sitting, but he found more and lifted past Carrick for second. It is not that evident on video but live I thought he was going to finish fourth, and he showed a good finish and fight.

What has he done since? That was his last start, he is very consistent and should be in the mix again.
Best Case: Barrier 16 did concern, but there is not much pace in this race which may allow him to get into the first few and a comfortable position, even if he leads I don't think the pace will be too frantic. Hayden Tinsley is a great big race rider and wont panic if things don't start well. He actually reminds me a bit of Military Move from a couple of years ago, consistent without winning, chased home the derby favourite a few times, the race went his way on the day and he was able to take off and win, it is an interesting parallel. Don't worry about the wet either which is why I have bumped him to third.

2nd Chicharita
Jockey
Barrier: 11
Best Race to Watch: New Zealand Bloodstock Royal Stakes (Group 2), She won well, beating Planet Rock and Zurella (who I think have excuses), as well as Our Famous Eve (who went on to perform at Group 1 Level) and the handy Joy's Choice. She ran home beautifully for the victory in that event.
What has she done since? Raced in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic against a good field, on a good track and finished 6th. She was in the first bunch and beat all the horses she was supposed to. She was beaten by five fillies who have had impressive seasons, but I would have liked to see her go a bit better there to figure here.
Best Case: She goes well in Auckland, barrier 11 will suit, and will likely be amongst the top six favourites on Derby Day. The forecast rain will suit, as will the return to a right handed track. She is able to wind up on the turn and explode late to pass Silent Achiever on the line for victory in a best case.

1st Silent Achiever
Jockey: James McDonald
Barrier: 8
Best race to watch: Her beating Ocean Park in the Waikato Guineas, she showed everything you would want to see from your Derby Champion. She had to find a gap and fight through some traffic, she chased down a top horse and found enough to win.
What has she done since? Had a very easy time winning the Avondale Guineas, was really eased to the line after chasing down the competition from her usual rare position.
Best Case: Clearly winning, but the best case would involve James McDonald unleashing all of her significant power and coasting across the line 4 lengths clear of her rivals.  She will handle the wet if it comes, barrier eight wont concern she should get a nice trip in the second half of the field.