There have not been a lot of changes since the last of the 3YO Power Rankings, however once we hit the new year things should change rapidly with more big races. There has been a Group 1 win from distil, and Antonio Lombardo has lost his last couple, Duckworth Lewis continues his improvement as a 3YO, I have also spied what may be an emerging Oaks contender for later in the season.
Firstly the Levin Classic, an excellent win from Distil, and a performance from a wide barrier draw from Randall to beat the hot favourite Antonio Lombardo, on the back of that they should make an appearance in this list, however it most likely wont be for long because I have read they are both likely heading out of the country (Distil and Randall articles).
I am not too worried about Andonio Lombardo, I still think that Levin Classic run was unlucky because of the effort required to get into that leadership role. He has then followed up with a run for fifth in the WFA challenge stakes over the weekend behind some very good horses again when favourite, definitely worth giving him more chances because he is definitely talented but the bloom is slightly off the rose.
Duckworth Lewis was very good for fifth from a wide barrier at Group 1 Level when he looked to have a tough race, he followed this up with another victory over more than 2000m against 3YO's at listed level. He is continuing to look at home over more distance and particularly seems to like racing at Ellerslie.
I was at Ellerslie's last Twlight racing meeting a couple of weeks ago and I saw one of the more impressive finishes I have seen in person. In race 6 a seemingly meaningless 1600m maiden Silent Achiever was probably a good two lengths back with 100m to go and won by a length an a half. It was very impressive for an Oaks nominated horse who should continue to get better.
Onto the Rankings...
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings: Dollario (9), Burgundy (10) through no fault of their own.
Honourable Mention: Dollario, Burgundy (Might move up on Boxing day), Randall (Hardest omission), Artistic (In Eight Carat Boxing day), Shanghai Bund (Should win at rating 85 Boxing day), Testa Secret (very hard to follow), Silent Achiever, Abeautifulred, Shuka
Number 10 - President Lincoln (8) - Only dropping because of the impressive performances from higher ranked horses on this list.
Number 9 - Zurella (NA) - Climbing the rankings with her first Group win beating a strong field.
Number 8 - Dowager Queen (3) - Ran fifth in a pretty good field of fillies, however Zurella is definitely the improving 3YO Filly. The distance was probably a little short for what she has been racing over recently, so look for improvement as the distance increases.
Number 7 - Duckworth Lewis (8) - Moving up and continuing to win.
Number 6 - Distil (N/A) - On the strength of a Group 1 win. He will continue to fall in this list if it is not in NZ.
Number 5 - Planet Rock (6) - On Boxing day the Eight Carat Classic should sort out a few of these rankings, it is looking like an excellent race, including numbers five and eight on this list, as well as Artistic, Holy Moly, Silent Achiever, Abeautifulred, and Testa Secret as well as undefeated Xanadu.
Number 4 - Anabandana (5) - Since her second in the Guineas she has not raced, there are going to be some great 3YO fillies races later in the year.
Number 3 - Antonio Lombardo (2) - Not quite as powerful following two losses, but has to stay ahead of some of these because of the quality of those fields.
Number 2 - Rock'n'Pop (4) - Moves up because both Antonio Lombardo move down the rankings, still a Group 1 winner in its own right.
Number 1 - Sangster (1) - Can't fault something that has not raced since the last rankings, and nothing has really stepped up to take his place.
Thursday 22 December 2011
Tuesday 6 December 2011
Making a profit at the Ellerslie Twlight Races
Do you believe a penny saved is a penny earned? if so I have a betting system I think will profit from the first Ellerslie Racecourse Twlight meeting of the 2011/12 Summer. It is simple, it breaks down as follows.
Step 1 - Set a budget? is it $50, $100, $1,000 or several thousand dollars.
Step 2 - Take a look at the form guide for Race 1
Step 3 - Hold your pen, and put a cross through every horse.
Step 4 - Repeat steps two and three for races two through six.
Step 5 - Return money to bank account.
I have had a look at the form for today and it is scary, the only way I will profit is if I receive a significant error in my favour when change is returned to me at the bar.
Actually it is perfect for this type of meeting. The races are about going out and having fun, throwing around a little money, and in the case of these Twlight races simply enjoying the atmosphere. Maybe you are with friends, maybe on a Christmas party, it will be an excellent night, one I am looking forward to, but not one I am expecting to make money on.
The crowd in attendance is most likely to be the typical "Easy Bet" crowd, one without a lot of racing aficionados, just people looking to have a thrill, pick their favourtie colour or a horse with a cool name. Looking at the fields the Easy Bet Strategy (if you can call it that) may not be the worst, I can definitely see some upsets or long shots coming in, and it may be a way to hit a big winner. For more serious punters looking at a $200k pick six, good luck! you will have to spread your money wisely because it will be a difficult one to hit.
However in saying that I can't go to the races and not have a bet. I have had a look at the form, and these are my top selections for each of the six races.
Race 1 - The Edge Maiden - 2200m
#7 - Grande Bellezza - Simply looks the most consistent and you have to assume that she is a winning chance here. It sure looks like the she has finished strong in races over a bit of distance where she may not have got a lot of luck. She was well supported last start and should be again today.
#1 - Back Burner - Interesting runner who has showed best form going right handed. Built up to 2200m this prep and will be better for having a run at that distance about two weeks ago.
#9 - Gaybrianne - Has been pretty consistent and been close in most starts. Definitely comfortable over more distance and will probably travel well from barrier three.
#10 - Erlicheer - Experienced, with a good Ellerslie performances in the past, looks to have stepped up well over 1600m and 2000m recently so 2200m should be well suited.
Race 2 - Cardinal Logistics Rating 65 - 1200m
#7 - Open 'N' Shut - Everything we know about his first start suggests win number two can happen here.
#8 - Midnight Senorita - In contention here, has been consistent with form on the course and over the distance. Placed 2nd up last prep and is 2nd up here today. Won well last start when well supported.
#4 - She's Prestigious - She raced in better class than this as a 3yo. Best record is over this distance and at Ellerslie as well has having a win 2nd up.
#3 - Tsar Bomba - Great name. Won last start after a promotion. However has been well supported and in the mix in all races.
As a bit of an outsider I can make a case for #9 - Monarch - hasn't been the best recently, but has placed 9 times in her 27 race career, all of those have been at Ellerslie and over 1200m, this makes her an interesting place chance.
Race 3 - Network Visuals Maiden for 3YO Fillies.
#2 - Diamonds are Blue - A consistent and well liked horse judging from support in previous races. Certainly appears that she is ready for 1400m or beyond, so another crack at that distance should be beneficial.
#7 - Bella Kaiane - Drawn barrier two, very well supported in first two runs, has the talent but needs the luck.
#3 - Mapmaker - Second in only start to date. Whilst that Second was distant to the winner the finish was strong and a bit more distance will be a help. She had some work to do and was featured in the Stewards report, so with a clean run she can figure today.
#1 - Caprisious - Drawn wide, but last start was at Group 1 Level. She looked good prior to that so you know she has talent. Really have to include this in anything more exotic.
I have also looked at #9 - Light the Way as an outsider in this race. I thought she raced in good company as a 2YO, she has had one start at age three over 1400m and should be benefited returning to that distance today, she also knows the course very well.
Race 4 - Dunstan Feeds Championship Mile
#11 - Chicharita - Artistic, Holy Moly, Anabandana, Antonio Lombardo are probably four of the top 3YO's in the country, they were the only four to beat Chicharita at Group 3 level two starts back. Last start she was beaten by Randall and Release another two good ones. This is easier.
#2 - Feel One - Once again I hate the barrier draw. However 1600m at Ellerslie gives a lot of time for a horse to settle in a good position before the bend and it looks like Feel One could get a soft lead, if that happens he can feature.
#3 - Gunsmoke - A consistent horse who has been slowly brought back after a long lay off. He has shown enough and been well enough supported to see as a contender here.
#4 - Te Karo - Barrier thirteen, but this looks slightly easier than some recent races. Seems to like Ellerslie and worth considering on that basis.
Probably the hardest race to pick of the day, I think I highlighted about seven who I thought could feature. Althought I had #8 - Chaparrone rated seventh of those seven I still like it as an outsider. She was 9th when 1st up, but last prep improved on that each start until winning its fifth start. Ran against some better horses last prep and seemed to go best over the 1600m. When selecting an outsider it is good to have a Jockey you can rely on and Sam Spratt is definitely one who can help this horses chances particularly when coming from an outsider barrier.
Race 5 - Barfoot and Thompson Twlight Cup - 1600m
#9 - Runningdownadream - This consistent 5YO mare loves Ellerslie, she also likes it wet, so keep an eye on the sky's, if the track is downgraded at all she will be harder to beat. She should be near the front and able to give them a good contest.
#1 - No Fear - Almost the opposite of Runningdownadream, you have to like No Fear more on a good surface, he seems to awlays put forward his best efforts at Ellerslie. He will claim 4kgs and this is significantly easier company than some he faced recently and last year. Wins have come 4th and 5th up, so expect a good show 3rd up here.
#5 - Nacho Bella - I like this horse and think she should be more than comfortable in this company. The distance should suit and she will look to improve on consecutive seconds.
#2 - Crown of Thorns - The weight scares me a bit, even after the 1kg claim. However he has been consistent in better company a drop in class should give an advantage, the record at Ellerslie and over the distance as not been great but he has won over the distance and on the course.
#15 - Mr Pedantic - Not sure if it is in this race, if it is replace Crown of Thorns with Mr Pedantic and maybe have a value place bet on Crown of Thorns.
Race 6 - Auckland Co-Op Taxi's Maiden Mile
#11 - Centre Point - This filly has been consistent over her last couple of starts which have both come over this distance (including one at Ellerslie).
#2 - Showmethemoney - According to the Stewards report he was slow away last start and never got into it, so if you are happy to forgive that and hope for a better performance then you might get some odds today. He has been well supported and looks like he will go better over 1600m, this is slightly easier too.
#9 - First Response - Going back up to 1600m will suit this mare as that is where the best performances have come. Gets better with a bit of racing and 3rd up should be when you start to see some improvement. The draw should help.
#3 - Even Better - Placed in a trial here, then came home well at big odds for 3rd over 1400m from the back of the pack. 1600m could be a good distance.
Step 1 - Set a budget? is it $50, $100, $1,000 or several thousand dollars.
Step 2 - Take a look at the form guide for Race 1
Step 3 - Hold your pen, and put a cross through every horse.
Step 4 - Repeat steps two and three for races two through six.
Step 5 - Return money to bank account.
I have had a look at the form for today and it is scary, the only way I will profit is if I receive a significant error in my favour when change is returned to me at the bar.
Actually it is perfect for this type of meeting. The races are about going out and having fun, throwing around a little money, and in the case of these Twlight races simply enjoying the atmosphere. Maybe you are with friends, maybe on a Christmas party, it will be an excellent night, one I am looking forward to, but not one I am expecting to make money on.
The crowd in attendance is most likely to be the typical "Easy Bet" crowd, one without a lot of racing aficionados, just people looking to have a thrill, pick their favourtie colour or a horse with a cool name. Looking at the fields the Easy Bet Strategy (if you can call it that) may not be the worst, I can definitely see some upsets or long shots coming in, and it may be a way to hit a big winner. For more serious punters looking at a $200k pick six, good luck! you will have to spread your money wisely because it will be a difficult one to hit.
However in saying that I can't go to the races and not have a bet. I have had a look at the form, and these are my top selections for each of the six races.
Race 1 - The Edge Maiden - 2200m
#7 - Grande Bellezza - Simply looks the most consistent and you have to assume that she is a winning chance here. It sure looks like the she has finished strong in races over a bit of distance where she may not have got a lot of luck. She was well supported last start and should be again today.
#1 - Back Burner - Interesting runner who has showed best form going right handed. Built up to 2200m this prep and will be better for having a run at that distance about two weeks ago.
#9 - Gaybrianne - Has been pretty consistent and been close in most starts. Definitely comfortable over more distance and will probably travel well from barrier three.
#10 - Erlicheer - Experienced, with a good Ellerslie performances in the past, looks to have stepped up well over 1600m and 2000m recently so 2200m should be well suited.
Race 2 - Cardinal Logistics Rating 65 - 1200m
#7 - Open 'N' Shut - Everything we know about his first start suggests win number two can happen here.
#8 - Midnight Senorita - In contention here, has been consistent with form on the course and over the distance. Placed 2nd up last prep and is 2nd up here today. Won well last start when well supported.
#4 - She's Prestigious - She raced in better class than this as a 3yo. Best record is over this distance and at Ellerslie as well has having a win 2nd up.
#3 - Tsar Bomba - Great name. Won last start after a promotion. However has been well supported and in the mix in all races.
As a bit of an outsider I can make a case for #9 - Monarch - hasn't been the best recently, but has placed 9 times in her 27 race career, all of those have been at Ellerslie and over 1200m, this makes her an interesting place chance.
Race 3 - Network Visuals Maiden for 3YO Fillies.
#2 - Diamonds are Blue - A consistent and well liked horse judging from support in previous races. Certainly appears that she is ready for 1400m or beyond, so another crack at that distance should be beneficial.
#7 - Bella Kaiane - Drawn barrier two, very well supported in first two runs, has the talent but needs the luck.
#3 - Mapmaker - Second in only start to date. Whilst that Second was distant to the winner the finish was strong and a bit more distance will be a help. She had some work to do and was featured in the Stewards report, so with a clean run she can figure today.
#1 - Caprisious - Drawn wide, but last start was at Group 1 Level. She looked good prior to that so you know she has talent. Really have to include this in anything more exotic.
I have also looked at #9 - Light the Way as an outsider in this race. I thought she raced in good company as a 2YO, she has had one start at age three over 1400m and should be benefited returning to that distance today, she also knows the course very well.
Race 4 - Dunstan Feeds Championship Mile
#11 - Chicharita - Artistic, Holy Moly, Anabandana, Antonio Lombardo are probably four of the top 3YO's in the country, they were the only four to beat Chicharita at Group 3 level two starts back. Last start she was beaten by Randall and Release another two good ones. This is easier.
#2 - Feel One - Once again I hate the barrier draw. However 1600m at Ellerslie gives a lot of time for a horse to settle in a good position before the bend and it looks like Feel One could get a soft lead, if that happens he can feature.
#3 - Gunsmoke - A consistent horse who has been slowly brought back after a long lay off. He has shown enough and been well enough supported to see as a contender here.
#4 - Te Karo - Barrier thirteen, but this looks slightly easier than some recent races. Seems to like Ellerslie and worth considering on that basis.
Probably the hardest race to pick of the day, I think I highlighted about seven who I thought could feature. Althought I had #8 - Chaparrone rated seventh of those seven I still like it as an outsider. She was 9th when 1st up, but last prep improved on that each start until winning its fifth start. Ran against some better horses last prep and seemed to go best over the 1600m. When selecting an outsider it is good to have a Jockey you can rely on and Sam Spratt is definitely one who can help this horses chances particularly when coming from an outsider barrier.
Race 5 - Barfoot and Thompson Twlight Cup - 1600m
#9 - Runningdownadream - This consistent 5YO mare loves Ellerslie, she also likes it wet, so keep an eye on the sky's, if the track is downgraded at all she will be harder to beat. She should be near the front and able to give them a good contest.
#1 - No Fear - Almost the opposite of Runningdownadream, you have to like No Fear more on a good surface, he seems to awlays put forward his best efforts at Ellerslie. He will claim 4kgs and this is significantly easier company than some he faced recently and last year. Wins have come 4th and 5th up, so expect a good show 3rd up here.
#5 - Nacho Bella - I like this horse and think she should be more than comfortable in this company. The distance should suit and she will look to improve on consecutive seconds.
#2 - Crown of Thorns - The weight scares me a bit, even after the 1kg claim. However he has been consistent in better company a drop in class should give an advantage, the record at Ellerslie and over the distance as not been great but he has won over the distance and on the course.
#15 - Mr Pedantic - Not sure if it is in this race, if it is replace Crown of Thorns with Mr Pedantic and maybe have a value place bet on Crown of Thorns.
Race 6 - Auckland Co-Op Taxi's Maiden Mile
#11 - Centre Point - This filly has been consistent over her last couple of starts which have both come over this distance (including one at Ellerslie).
#2 - Showmethemoney - According to the Stewards report he was slow away last start and never got into it, so if you are happy to forgive that and hope for a better performance then you might get some odds today. He has been well supported and looks like he will go better over 1600m, this is slightly easier too.
#9 - First Response - Going back up to 1600m will suit this mare as that is where the best performances have come. Gets better with a bit of racing and 3rd up should be when you start to see some improvement. The draw should help.
#3 - Even Better - Placed in a trial here, then came home well at big odds for 3rd over 1400m from the back of the pack. 1600m could be a good distance.
Wednesday 30 November 2011
Why am I so sure?
Three weeks ago when Mufhasa was running in Tauranga his past three race day starts had included victories in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap, the Group 1 Makfi Challenge Stakes, and a second in the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate. The field he was facing had combined to win $2.6m, just a touch under what Mufhasa has accumulated in his esteemed career to date. I was sure he was going to win.
Last Friday Antonio Lombardo was facing a capacity Levin Classic field, however with the absence of other 3YO Group 1 winners, the field featured just two other horses who had won or placed above Listed level (Duckworth Lewis, and Distil), it featured only another two horses who had won at listed level, and a further one who had placed at that level. Andonio Lombardo came into the race having won his last three, in his career he has won three at group level and a further two listed races, he beat Anabandana last start and was second in a Group 1 as a two year old, the next best placed Group 1 runner in this race was Distil with a 4th ($36 is what he paid people!). I was sure he was going to win.
The point of this post is not to point out all of the times when I was sure something was going to happen and it didn't, there is not enough space on the Internet for that. I was not alone in my certainty of Mufhasa and Antonio Lombardo victories, they paid $1.40 and $1.70 in those races. Obviously favourites don't always win, if they did, what would be the point, every winner would pay $1. There were certainly signs that Distil was a contender in that race last week, as well as several other runners who all featured in the top six or so, and there were signs that Antonio Lombardo might not be the dominant horse in that race (although I think he was unlucky and had to expend effort early on, he featured heavily in the stewards report). The point of this post is to look at some likely favourites and figure out why you should not be so sure.
This was supposed to be a post focusing on all of the races in New Zealand which contained favourites which people appeared to be sure of, however as of the writing of this post there is only fixed odds out for six of the twenty odd races in New Zealand tomorrow, the only favourite at this point people appear to be sure of is Mufhasa, here are the reasons he will not win.
As little as six months ago I would not have considered Mufhasa a 1600m horse at this level, however now he has won and placed at Group 1 level in the last couple of months. His overall record includes four wins of twelve starts at that distance. He was beaten last start, but that was due to over racing early and wearing himself out a bit and even then he was just beaten late. He had 35 days off between runs before that start at Tauranga, he will be much better for that and ready to win here.
For Mufhasa to lose this he will either have to perform badly or be beaten by a better horse, who might be that better horse?
Hold it Harvey won impressively course and distance in March, he was good in the Coupland Mile and the Windsor Park plate. He chased Mufhasa home in Hastings but he has had two starts since then, he definitely improves with a bit of racing, from barrier four he will get a chance to follow Mufhasa and compete late.
Booming had a great year last year, and although he would typically like a bit more distance he did win a Group 1 over this distance last year. He looked good in Australia which was tougher than this, he is a good horse and should be more than comfortable in this company.
Vosne Romanee, was amazing a couple of years ago but his form has not really returned. A triple group one winner is always a threat, but will need some improvement.
Bragato, you have to respect the win on the course and distance recently, but the conditions should be better tomorrow than that day. He is well acquainted with the track and has had a good year, but this seems like a big step up.
Vonusti has only won once at 1600m, and only won once at Wellington, however that was at Group 1 level. That group one victory was his last victory, but he has put forward a lot of great close performances since then. Some of his top performances have been over 1600m, and he came home very strongly in a top field at Ellerslie last start. He might be the best chance to upset the favourite.
Platiunm Princess is the first of the mares in this race, she is in form winning the Coupland's mile. The WFA conditions should cause some problems, the highest weight she has carried to victory is 56.5kg but you still have to consider the form.
Dating is a real chance if you go off the Hawera victory. The barrier inside Mufhasa should be useful and give Jonathan Riddell a chance to position the horse to show another flying finish.
Banchee is a 1600m Group 1 winner as a 3YO. She is class and definitely has not received all the favours in her last two starts.
Elusive Tracy is a nice mare who has looked pretty good recently. This is a big step up for her, but she seems to go well on the course, hard to take at Group 1 level.
Of the horses I am mentioned I can genuinely see a few of them beating Mufhasa if things go their way, Banchee and Dating are real chances, Vonusti and Hold it Harvey have the form and experience to challenge, and Vosne Romanee is a wild card. Booming is back in New Zealand where he was so good last year. Platinum Princess might step up to WFA conditions and maybe Bragato and Elusive Tracy will surprise. However I still think Mufhasa looks the one to beat... I am sure of it.
Last Friday Antonio Lombardo was facing a capacity Levin Classic field, however with the absence of other 3YO Group 1 winners, the field featured just two other horses who had won or placed above Listed level (Duckworth Lewis, and Distil), it featured only another two horses who had won at listed level, and a further one who had placed at that level. Andonio Lombardo came into the race having won his last three, in his career he has won three at group level and a further two listed races, he beat Anabandana last start and was second in a Group 1 as a two year old, the next best placed Group 1 runner in this race was Distil with a 4th ($36 is what he paid people!). I was sure he was going to win.
The point of this post is not to point out all of the times when I was sure something was going to happen and it didn't, there is not enough space on the Internet for that. I was not alone in my certainty of Mufhasa and Antonio Lombardo victories, they paid $1.40 and $1.70 in those races. Obviously favourites don't always win, if they did, what would be the point, every winner would pay $1. There were certainly signs that Distil was a contender in that race last week, as well as several other runners who all featured in the top six or so, and there were signs that Antonio Lombardo might not be the dominant horse in that race (although I think he was unlucky and had to expend effort early on, he featured heavily in the stewards report). The point of this post is to look at some likely favourites and figure out why you should not be so sure.
This was supposed to be a post focusing on all of the races in New Zealand which contained favourites which people appeared to be sure of, however as of the writing of this post there is only fixed odds out for six of the twenty odd races in New Zealand tomorrow, the only favourite at this point people appear to be sure of is Mufhasa, here are the reasons he will not win.
As little as six months ago I would not have considered Mufhasa a 1600m horse at this level, however now he has won and placed at Group 1 level in the last couple of months. His overall record includes four wins of twelve starts at that distance. He was beaten last start, but that was due to over racing early and wearing himself out a bit and even then he was just beaten late. He had 35 days off between runs before that start at Tauranga, he will be much better for that and ready to win here.
For Mufhasa to lose this he will either have to perform badly or be beaten by a better horse, who might be that better horse?
Hold it Harvey won impressively course and distance in March, he was good in the Coupland Mile and the Windsor Park plate. He chased Mufhasa home in Hastings but he has had two starts since then, he definitely improves with a bit of racing, from barrier four he will get a chance to follow Mufhasa and compete late.
Booming had a great year last year, and although he would typically like a bit more distance he did win a Group 1 over this distance last year. He looked good in Australia which was tougher than this, he is a good horse and should be more than comfortable in this company.
Vosne Romanee, was amazing a couple of years ago but his form has not really returned. A triple group one winner is always a threat, but will need some improvement.
Bragato, you have to respect the win on the course and distance recently, but the conditions should be better tomorrow than that day. He is well acquainted with the track and has had a good year, but this seems like a big step up.
Vonusti has only won once at 1600m, and only won once at Wellington, however that was at Group 1 level. That group one victory was his last victory, but he has put forward a lot of great close performances since then. Some of his top performances have been over 1600m, and he came home very strongly in a top field at Ellerslie last start. He might be the best chance to upset the favourite.
Platiunm Princess is the first of the mares in this race, she is in form winning the Coupland's mile. The WFA conditions should cause some problems, the highest weight she has carried to victory is 56.5kg but you still have to consider the form.
Dating is a real chance if you go off the Hawera victory. The barrier inside Mufhasa should be useful and give Jonathan Riddell a chance to position the horse to show another flying finish.
Banchee is a 1600m Group 1 winner as a 3YO. She is class and definitely has not received all the favours in her last two starts.
Elusive Tracy is a nice mare who has looked pretty good recently. This is a big step up for her, but she seems to go well on the course, hard to take at Group 1 level.
Of the horses I am mentioned I can genuinely see a few of them beating Mufhasa if things go their way, Banchee and Dating are real chances, Vonusti and Hold it Harvey have the form and experience to challenge, and Vosne Romanee is a wild card. Booming is back in New Zealand where he was so good last year. Platinum Princess might step up to WFA conditions and maybe Bragato and Elusive Tracy will surprise. However I still think Mufhasa looks the one to beat... I am sure of it.
Thursday 24 November 2011
Levin Classic Preview
It is raining hard outside, it is almost 11am on Thursday morning, I am in Auckland, the Levin Classic starts in around thirty hours, there is allegedly 557 kilometers between my location here and the racetrack in Levin, a quick check of the forecast shows that we should expect a lot of rain over the North Island of New Zealand today. The Levin track is currently rated a Dead 4. The TAB odd's are up, Antonio Lombardo is a hot favourite while Duckworth Lewis is paying in the $16 range.
A few weeks ago nominations for this race included the horses mentioned above as well as other hot 3YO's, Burgundy, Anabandana, Rock'n'Pop, and Planet Rock. Now the 2011 Levin Classic Group 1 is headlined by Antonio Lombardo, who I would have had on top even if this race included these other 3YO's. Currently this race includes only two of my top ten ranked three year old's (even if you include the honourable mentions).
After saying all of that the field for this race still looks very interesting and may include a number of other up-coming 3YO's who may not have had the opportunity to shine. It is hard to preview this with the conditions uncertain. I will assume that we are going to end up with a dead to slow track.
Last year this race was interesting, we know Jimmy Choux ran last, he had a health issue. The race was won by We Can Say It Now and we know she was a very good filly. The first four places were all fillies. The dividends were high, Blinding was paying $25 and $5 for the place, and Lady Kipling paying $62 and $13 for the place, Blinding ran 15th in the Auckland Breeders Stakes last weekend, and Lady Kipling has looked very good this year. There are only three fillies in the race this year, and a lot of the runners are paying in excess of $20.
(#1) Antonio Lombardo (6) - Will win this race, has won on up to heavy tracks, he is a Group 1 quality horse.
(#2) Duckworth Lewis (16) - Barrier 16, he should move in depending on the emergencies and scratchings, but may be stuck wide. Is this the worst thing? maybe not, if it is wet his chances go up in my opinion. Two weeks ago Planet Rock won the Guineas racing wide and finding better ground, that could be the key for Duckworth Lewis. The third in the Wellington Guineas was interesting because this horse actually cut the corner and raced in what may have been the wetter part of the track. This horse will not have a problem running wide or on wet ground. He has also won over 2000m, so even running wide on a wet track this horse should be fresh in the finish.Currently $16, great odds.
(#3) Brackenwood (4) - Second up as a three year old. Ran a second first up to the improving Shanghai Bund, but may not have had many favours in that race. He won twice as a 2YO and seems pretty consistent. He was good early as at 2YO. He may be in the first few here.
(#4) Estrato (15) - A horse I like a lot, however I had him ranked higher before the Hawkes Bay Guineas run. In this field he looks very well placed, the problem is going to be doing something useful from that draw. In Hawkes Bay it was the first time in his career he had drawn a double digit draw and he got caught wide, barrier fifteen is not going to suit.
(#5) Shanghai Bund (7) - Flashed home in the Guineas and with this field lacking other Group 1 winners he has come into favour with the bookmakers. He performed well in Australia as a 2YO and has looked good at age three. If the track is wet it will be something new, but that is the case for a lot of runners.
(#6) Randall (18) - Won two of four starts, however the outside barrier will hurt his chances to win. The win at Tauranga was good, he looked brave and seemed to fight well. Jason Collett is in form and generally one of the best, however it is hard to have winning.
(#7) San Rafael (10) - Start number four. This is to be a rise in class, but that is true for a lot of these runners. Hard to see him beating Antonio Lombardo.
(#8) Distil (9) - I liked him as a 2YO, he ran 4th in a Group 1. His two runs at age three have not been good dropping out and having to work hard from bad positions, I suspect the Wellington run was a lot to do with the wet conditions, so on better ground he is definitely worth considering in this field.
(#9) Danny Ricardo (11) - Should handle the track conditions, recently broke maidens. Just not sure he has been doing enough to recommend.
(#10) Platinum Playboy (14) - Finished 5.4 lengths behind Randall last start and is drawn badly here.
(#11) Release Me (8) - Looks to be lining up well here. Hayden Tinsley will be going for a second Group 1 this season, he was caught wide at Tauranga and nearly beat Randall, he looks consistent and should be suited to 1600m. The fact he has performed best on good tracks may concern people but $21 at this stage looks like good value for a good place chance.
(#12) Viking Ace (3) - I do like his chances. The draw should suit and 1600m should not be a worry.
(#13) Urunga (12) - Consistent, but yet to win one.
(#14) Whoshe (2) - I think this horse is toying with me. I keep going back and forth and have essentially ruled her out as an elite 3YO. This this race comes along and I look at the good draw, the strong record on less than good tracks, the fact that she has at least been consistent despite probably under-performing her odds, I look at the quality of a field and the class she has been racing against. She is currently paying $26, which makes her equal 10th favourite. She is much better than that. Why can't she run 2nd of 3rd in this?
(#15) Lego (1) - Should be on the speed, assuming Antonio Lombardo goes to the lead she should get a good trip, maybe can handle the rain, worth considering.
(#16) Smoke'N'Mirrors (17) - Despite the consistency, in this field, from that draw she is hard to take.
The result
It is hard to see Antonio Lombardo not winning this, he is just the better horse. I think Whoshe will be there and Duckworth Lewis will go well enough from the wide draw to be in place contention. Shanghai Bund has to be considered, and despite the draw Estrato is simply better than a lot of these runners.
I have gone for experience in my picks, I like Antonio Lombardo to win, but would really not be surprised by any order from that point on.
First - Antonio Lombardo
Second - Whoshe
Third - Shanghai Bund
Forth - Duckworth Lewis
Hard to leave out - Release Me, Estrato, Brackenwood
Rough but value - Lego, Viking Ace.
A few weeks ago nominations for this race included the horses mentioned above as well as other hot 3YO's, Burgundy, Anabandana, Rock'n'Pop, and Planet Rock. Now the 2011 Levin Classic Group 1 is headlined by Antonio Lombardo, who I would have had on top even if this race included these other 3YO's. Currently this race includes only two of my top ten ranked three year old's (even if you include the honourable mentions).
After saying all of that the field for this race still looks very interesting and may include a number of other up-coming 3YO's who may not have had the opportunity to shine. It is hard to preview this with the conditions uncertain. I will assume that we are going to end up with a dead to slow track.
Last year this race was interesting, we know Jimmy Choux ran last, he had a health issue. The race was won by We Can Say It Now and we know she was a very good filly. The first four places were all fillies. The dividends were high, Blinding was paying $25 and $5 for the place, and Lady Kipling paying $62 and $13 for the place, Blinding ran 15th in the Auckland Breeders Stakes last weekend, and Lady Kipling has looked very good this year. There are only three fillies in the race this year, and a lot of the runners are paying in excess of $20.
(#1) Antonio Lombardo (6) - Will win this race, has won on up to heavy tracks, he is a Group 1 quality horse.
(#2) Duckworth Lewis (16) - Barrier 16, he should move in depending on the emergencies and scratchings, but may be stuck wide. Is this the worst thing? maybe not, if it is wet his chances go up in my opinion. Two weeks ago Planet Rock won the Guineas racing wide and finding better ground, that could be the key for Duckworth Lewis. The third in the Wellington Guineas was interesting because this horse actually cut the corner and raced in what may have been the wetter part of the track. This horse will not have a problem running wide or on wet ground. He has also won over 2000m, so even running wide on a wet track this horse should be fresh in the finish.Currently $16, great odds.
(#3) Brackenwood (4) - Second up as a three year old. Ran a second first up to the improving Shanghai Bund, but may not have had many favours in that race. He won twice as a 2YO and seems pretty consistent. He was good early as at 2YO. He may be in the first few here.
(#4) Estrato (15) - A horse I like a lot, however I had him ranked higher before the Hawkes Bay Guineas run. In this field he looks very well placed, the problem is going to be doing something useful from that draw. In Hawkes Bay it was the first time in his career he had drawn a double digit draw and he got caught wide, barrier fifteen is not going to suit.
(#5) Shanghai Bund (7) - Flashed home in the Guineas and with this field lacking other Group 1 winners he has come into favour with the bookmakers. He performed well in Australia as a 2YO and has looked good at age three. If the track is wet it will be something new, but that is the case for a lot of runners.
(#6) Randall (18) - Won two of four starts, however the outside barrier will hurt his chances to win. The win at Tauranga was good, he looked brave and seemed to fight well. Jason Collett is in form and generally one of the best, however it is hard to have winning.
(#7) San Rafael (10) - Start number four. This is to be a rise in class, but that is true for a lot of these runners. Hard to see him beating Antonio Lombardo.
(#8) Distil (9) - I liked him as a 2YO, he ran 4th in a Group 1. His two runs at age three have not been good dropping out and having to work hard from bad positions, I suspect the Wellington run was a lot to do with the wet conditions, so on better ground he is definitely worth considering in this field.
(#9) Danny Ricardo (11) - Should handle the track conditions, recently broke maidens. Just not sure he has been doing enough to recommend.
(#10) Platinum Playboy (14) - Finished 5.4 lengths behind Randall last start and is drawn badly here.
(#11) Release Me (8) - Looks to be lining up well here. Hayden Tinsley will be going for a second Group 1 this season, he was caught wide at Tauranga and nearly beat Randall, he looks consistent and should be suited to 1600m. The fact he has performed best on good tracks may concern people but $21 at this stage looks like good value for a good place chance.
(#12) Viking Ace (3) - I do like his chances. The draw should suit and 1600m should not be a worry.
(#13) Urunga (12) - Consistent, but yet to win one.
(#14) Whoshe (2) - I think this horse is toying with me. I keep going back and forth and have essentially ruled her out as an elite 3YO. This this race comes along and I look at the good draw, the strong record on less than good tracks, the fact that she has at least been consistent despite probably under-performing her odds, I look at the quality of a field and the class she has been racing against. She is currently paying $26, which makes her equal 10th favourite. She is much better than that. Why can't she run 2nd of 3rd in this?
(#15) Lego (1) - Should be on the speed, assuming Antonio Lombardo goes to the lead she should get a good trip, maybe can handle the rain, worth considering.
(#16) Smoke'N'Mirrors (17) - Despite the consistency, in this field, from that draw she is hard to take.
The result
It is hard to see Antonio Lombardo not winning this, he is just the better horse. I think Whoshe will be there and Duckworth Lewis will go well enough from the wide draw to be in place contention. Shanghai Bund has to be considered, and despite the draw Estrato is simply better than a lot of these runners.
I have gone for experience in my picks, I like Antonio Lombardo to win, but would really not be surprised by any order from that point on.
First - Antonio Lombardo
Second - Whoshe
Third - Shanghai Bund
Forth - Duckworth Lewis
Hard to leave out - Release Me, Estrato, Brackenwood
Rough but value - Lego, Viking Ace.
Tuesday 15 November 2011
Horse Racing Fantasy League
I have recently alluded to an idea I have for a Horse Racing based fantasy league. I know there are other games out there like Star Stable,
which is fine, but it has a couple of flaws, it is budget based, so you
select horses you like, you can buy and sell like a stock market and
generate value with win's
etc. The two flaws are, you make initial selections and anything can
change because you don't know who will qualify for what and who will
target what races, the second is that it is based on the horse (for the
most part), as most horses don't race every week you can be left with
not much action each week.
The other fun thing about fantasy sports is the draft, getting together and making selections round after round, mocking your buddies selections, and searching for sleepers. Also it means that every 'player' can only be owned once which brings skill and strategy into place.
My fantasy game suggestion.
You will have drafted 40 jockeys and 32 trainers (eight team league). If you look at last years premierships the 32nd ranked trainer (combo) was Graeme and Mark Sanders, the 40th ranked Jockey was Trudy Thornton.
Trudy Thornton rode 517 horses last year, there are plenty of other jockeys remaining so it is possible to take another ten (ten team league) from that pool and still leave a good sized free agent pool. Graeme and Mark Sanders trained 202 runners last season, again there are plenty of other trainers with similar numbers so it is possible to draft another eight (ten team league) and keep a free agent pool.
Starters
Each week you will pick from your team
You can drop and pick up 'free agents' (unselected jockeys/trainers), you can also make trades with other players however your total team size should not exceed nine players. To score points you must start players as described above.
The season
There is flexibility here, your league can choose to only play Saturdays or weekends or play full weeks. As there is racing 52 weeks of the year you can either play a full year, or just play seasons maybe spring/summer/winter (ie. saying the season will start from 1st August and conclude on the 30th of November).
For the purposes of a week I suggest that team line ups are locked on Wednesday night, and scoring runs from Thursday through to the following Wednesday races. The reason for this is that most of the big scoring races will take place on Saturdays and you will have access to nominations for these by Wednesday night.
There is flexibility again on how you arrange your league, but there are two basic models
The match-up model
Scoring
This is definitely a work in progress which can be tinkered with over time to get a good balance. Obviously can be adapted for your region, I am going to focus on New Zealand racing. I will put my rational in brackets where explanation may be required.
Starter = -1 point (by subtracting points for a starter it rewards strike rate)
Winner = 10 points
2nd = 7 points
3rd = 5 points
4th = 3 points
5th = 2 points
6th = 1 point
7th - nth 0 points
Pretty simple, more points for winning races. However there should be a reward for winning more important races.
Race at listed level 125% of points
Race at Group 3 level 150% of points
Race at Group 2 level 200% of points
Race at Group 1 level 300% of points
Now there is another issue, in New Zealand often our horses head across to Australia to race when the big carnivals are approaching. The solution, if you start a jockey or trainer who is taking a horse to Australia you will score double points (after the Group multiplier, so winning an Aussie Group 1 is worth 60 points). Often jockeys will only have one or two rides that day rather than the six or seven they may have got in New Zealand so this is more of a measure to even things up
There need to be a distinction between jockeys who have moved overseas and ones who are just over for a day, so if a jockey rides exclusively in Australia for two consecutive weeks they are ineligible for future weeks unless they have a start in New Zealand. The best recent example might be someone like Jason Collett, if he was to have another stint in Sydney, the first two weeks after his last New Zealand start will score points, but he will not score future points until he has had another start in New Zealand.
Trainers again should score for taking a horse across for a big Aussie race, but not if that horse is exclusively raced from an Aussie base (otherwise things get too complicated), so maybe allow five consecutive starts overseas of one horse before that horse is ruled out of counting for that trainer.
The other alternative is simply not to include Aussie points, but it makes a nice wrinkle if you draft a jockey or trainer with an association with a potential big race winner you deserve a nice reward.
I would suggest similar rules for taking horses to other destinations, but Aussie is by far the most common.
We should also reward jockeys and trainers who have big days.
3 winners = 15 bonus points
4 winners = 30 bonus points
5 winners = 50 bonus points
6+ Winners = 80 bonus points
Training a winning Quinella = 15 bonus points
Training a winning Trifecta = 30 bonus points
Training a winning First four = 50 bonus points
All total scores will be rounded to a whole number.
Now to test these numbers we need to do a quick calculation to see how this would have worked, I will base this on Saturday's Christchurch meeting.
As you can see there are a few high scores amongst the jockeys, no surprises to see the leaders are clearly highly rated jockeys, but also they are consistent and had success in the big races on the day. The negative scores are not too bad and it is most likely that jockeys with very few rides would not have been started anyway (depending on what other rides they might have in a given week).
There are clearly more trainers than jockeys, however most of these represent smaller trainers who probably would not be started unless they had a Group One contender. Points here compare quite well with the jockeys. Only 15 bonus points were awarded on the day, but generally top scorers represent larger and more consistent stables, and success in big races. Obviously a trainer can be in two places at once in this game so some North Island trainers would have also scored at Tauranga on the day, and both jockeys and trainers would have scored throughout the week.
These spreadsheets took a bit to put together, I would suggest that either your league designates a scorer and it rotates for each week, each individual match-up is scored by someone in that match-up or both players, people score for themselves and an honour system is adhered to. Clearly if you are scoring you don't have to worry about every trainer and jockey, only the ones playing that week which should save a lot of time.
The Prize
Well that is up to you, have fun, make a trophy, throw in a certain amount of money each and enjoy.
Obviously this can be tweaked to fit your league however you want. Maybe someone will make an automated online game to save time and effort, maybe one already exists, I couldn't find one from having a search around the net. Fantasy sports are big business and an excellent way for people to get added enjoyment out of a sport, it could definitely work for racing, so get together with your mates and give it a go.
The other fun thing about fantasy sports is the draft, getting together and making selections round after round, mocking your buddies selections, and searching for sleepers. Also it means that every 'player' can only be owned once which brings skill and strategy into place.
My fantasy game suggestion.
- An eight or ten team league (only eight or ten for a reason which will soon become clear)
- You draft in Snake fashion (pick 1-8 in round one 8-1 in round two etc)
- You each select five jockeys, and select four trainers (or training combos per the premiership)
- You can either do a separate trainer and jockey draft or combine them (which will force you to figure out who is more valuable).
You will have drafted 40 jockeys and 32 trainers (eight team league). If you look at last years premierships the 32nd ranked trainer (combo) was Graeme and Mark Sanders, the 40th ranked Jockey was Trudy Thornton.
Trudy Thornton rode 517 horses last year, there are plenty of other jockeys remaining so it is possible to take another ten (ten team league) from that pool and still leave a good sized free agent pool. Graeme and Mark Sanders trained 202 runners last season, again there are plenty of other trainers with similar numbers so it is possible to draft another eight (ten team league) and keep a free agent pool.
Starters
Each week you will pick from your team
- three Jockeys
- two trainers
- one wild card (either a jockey or trainer)
You can drop and pick up 'free agents' (unselected jockeys/trainers), you can also make trades with other players however your total team size should not exceed nine players. To score points you must start players as described above.
The season
There is flexibility here, your league can choose to only play Saturdays or weekends or play full weeks. As there is racing 52 weeks of the year you can either play a full year, or just play seasons maybe spring/summer/winter (ie. saying the season will start from 1st August and conclude on the 30th of November).
For the purposes of a week I suggest that team line ups are locked on Wednesday night, and scoring runs from Thursday through to the following Wednesday races. The reason for this is that most of the big scoring races will take place on Saturdays and you will have access to nominations for these by Wednesday night.
There is flexibility again on how you arrange your league, but there are two basic models
The match-up model
- Either split into two divisions or just one large league table
- Work out weekly match ups of two teams (maybe each team plays each other twice, or each team plays it's own division twice and the other division once) whatever you decide it just best just to make it even.
- Have a win/loss/draw ladder
- Top four teams make the playoffs with two weeks to determine a winner, or two division winners make the playoffs and then the two teams with the best overall record, again this is flexible.
- simply tally points each week and most points at seasons end wins
- or tally points each week, assign a value for where you finish each week (ie.1st = 10, 2nd =8, 3rd = 6, 4th =5, 5th = 4, 6th= 3, 7th =2, 8th = 1) tally these each week and most points at year ends wins.
Scoring
This is definitely a work in progress which can be tinkered with over time to get a good balance. Obviously can be adapted for your region, I am going to focus on New Zealand racing. I will put my rational in brackets where explanation may be required.
Starter = -1 point (by subtracting points for a starter it rewards strike rate)
Winner = 10 points
2nd = 7 points
3rd = 5 points
4th = 3 points
5th = 2 points
6th = 1 point
7th - nth 0 points
Pretty simple, more points for winning races. However there should be a reward for winning more important races.
Race at listed level 125% of points
Race at Group 3 level 150% of points
Race at Group 2 level 200% of points
Race at Group 1 level 300% of points
Now there is another issue, in New Zealand often our horses head across to Australia to race when the big carnivals are approaching. The solution, if you start a jockey or trainer who is taking a horse to Australia you will score double points (after the Group multiplier, so winning an Aussie Group 1 is worth 60 points). Often jockeys will only have one or two rides that day rather than the six or seven they may have got in New Zealand so this is more of a measure to even things up
There need to be a distinction between jockeys who have moved overseas and ones who are just over for a day, so if a jockey rides exclusively in Australia for two consecutive weeks they are ineligible for future weeks unless they have a start in New Zealand. The best recent example might be someone like Jason Collett, if he was to have another stint in Sydney, the first two weeks after his last New Zealand start will score points, but he will not score future points until he has had another start in New Zealand.
Trainers again should score for taking a horse across for a big Aussie race, but not if that horse is exclusively raced from an Aussie base (otherwise things get too complicated), so maybe allow five consecutive starts overseas of one horse before that horse is ruled out of counting for that trainer.
The other alternative is simply not to include Aussie points, but it makes a nice wrinkle if you draft a jockey or trainer with an association with a potential big race winner you deserve a nice reward.
I would suggest similar rules for taking horses to other destinations, but Aussie is by far the most common.
We should also reward jockeys and trainers who have big days.
3 winners = 15 bonus points
4 winners = 30 bonus points
5 winners = 50 bonus points
6+ Winners = 80 bonus points
Training a winning Quinella = 15 bonus points
Training a winning Trifecta = 30 bonus points
Training a winning First four = 50 bonus points
All total scores will be rounded to a whole number.
Now to test these numbers we need to do a quick calculation to see how this would have worked, I will base this on Saturday's Christchurch meeting.
As you can see there are a few high scores amongst the jockeys, no surprises to see the leaders are clearly highly rated jockeys, but also they are consistent and had success in the big races on the day. The negative scores are not too bad and it is most likely that jockeys with very few rides would not have been started anyway (depending on what other rides they might have in a given week).
There are clearly more trainers than jockeys, however most of these represent smaller trainers who probably would not be started unless they had a Group One contender. Points here compare quite well with the jockeys. Only 15 bonus points were awarded on the day, but generally top scorers represent larger and more consistent stables, and success in big races. Obviously a trainer can be in two places at once in this game so some North Island trainers would have also scored at Tauranga on the day, and both jockeys and trainers would have scored throughout the week.
These spreadsheets took a bit to put together, I would suggest that either your league designates a scorer and it rotates for each week, each individual match-up is scored by someone in that match-up or both players, people score for themselves and an honour system is adhered to. Clearly if you are scoring you don't have to worry about every trainer and jockey, only the ones playing that week which should save a lot of time.
The Prize
Well that is up to you, have fun, make a trophy, throw in a certain amount of money each and enjoy.
Obviously this can be tweaked to fit your league however you want. Maybe someone will make an automated online game to save time and effort, maybe one already exists, I couldn't find one from having a search around the net. Fantasy sports are big business and an excellent way for people to get added enjoyment out of a sport, it could definitely work for racing, so get together with your mates and give it a go.
Monday 14 November 2011
3YO Power Rankings - November
We have had a Kiwi winner of the Victorian Derby and two 3YO Group 1's since the last edition of the Power Rankings. It has been a pretty good couple of weeks for Fastnet Rock with two of his progeny becoming Group 1 winners in the Guineas races. Once again this is a count down from ten to one, brackets to indicate the ranking last month.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings: Holy Moly (6), Shuka (7), Artistic (10)
Honourable Mention: Abeautifulred (hardest omission), Artistic (confusing run), Shanghai Bund (another great John Sargent middle distance horse?), Prestigious Miss (Not nominated for anything, injured?). Shuka (give another chance)
Number 10 - Burgundy (3) - He didn't have it in the 2000 Guineas, however he has to stay in the rankings because it appears he may have an excuse. Not sure when he will be back, but his performances up until this point indicate he will be a contender in whatever event that is.
Number 9 - Dollario (N/A) - Brilliant and gutsy leading run in the 2000 Guineas. As others were dropping out of it he seemed to keep finding more, we may look back at that third and the two who beat him in a years time and understand that he was simply beaten by two outstanding horses.
Number 8 - Duckworth Lewis (N/A) - Obviously he was not eligible to run in the 1000 Guineas, however after looking at his past two starts you cannot help but feel the conditions would have suited him. He has really emerged recently and should be an interesting contender in the Levin Classic.
Number 7 -President Lincoln (8) - Another Gelding who the connections might have wished was a Filly after looking at the track conditions in Christchurch on the weekend. Like Duckworth Lewis he will be very interesting at the Levin Classic in a couple of weeks if we have a wet November.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (HM) - The Wellington run is the real enigma, lesser company than the victory on the weekend in the Thousand Guineas, both runs were on Heavy tracks, I think I will chalk it up to targeting the Guineas and getting fitter from that Wellington run. The run on the weekend was an interesting performance as she rode three wide without cover, that actually seemed to work to her advantage as she found herself on better ground for the finish despite having to cover more distance than some of the others, you have to give the credit to Hayden Tinsley who described it has an 'underrated' place to be.
Number 5 - Anabandana (2) - Scratched from the Thousand Guineas on the weekend due to track conditions. Seemed well placed throughout the 2000 Guineas and just couldn't quite overcome a strong performance from Rock'n'Pop.
Number 4 - Rock'n'Pop (9) - Got the dream run in the 2k Guineas and won well with Anabandana chasing hard. He is nominated in the Levin Classic, it is hard to know how he rates against Antonio Lombardo as they both were able to overcome Anabandana by similar margins last start.
Number 3 - Dowager Queen (4) - Since winning her last start in New Zealand in September she has traveled to Australia and performed very well placing in four of her five starts at Group level. It is not clear what she will be looking at when she returns to New Zealand, however she will shape up well against other 3YO's.
Number 2 - Antonio Lombardo (1) - Lost top spot in the rankings only on the strength of the victory of the top ranked horse. Currently aiming at the Levin Classic (which is shaping up to be a special race), it is not clear if we will see this colt before November 25th.
Number 1 - Sangster (4) - Held on to win the Victorian Derby impressively, that warrants a jump up the rankings. Hard to know when we will next see this 3YO, however one would assume that the Auckland Derby is a distinct possibility.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings: Holy Moly (6), Shuka (7), Artistic (10)
Honourable Mention: Abeautifulred (hardest omission), Artistic (confusing run), Shanghai Bund (another great John Sargent middle distance horse?), Prestigious Miss (Not nominated for anything, injured?). Shuka (give another chance)
Number 10 - Burgundy (3) - He didn't have it in the 2000 Guineas, however he has to stay in the rankings because it appears he may have an excuse. Not sure when he will be back, but his performances up until this point indicate he will be a contender in whatever event that is.
Number 9 - Dollario (N/A) - Brilliant and gutsy leading run in the 2000 Guineas. As others were dropping out of it he seemed to keep finding more, we may look back at that third and the two who beat him in a years time and understand that he was simply beaten by two outstanding horses.
Number 8 - Duckworth Lewis (N/A) - Obviously he was not eligible to run in the 1000 Guineas, however after looking at his past two starts you cannot help but feel the conditions would have suited him. He has really emerged recently and should be an interesting contender in the Levin Classic.
Number 7 -President Lincoln (8) - Another Gelding who the connections might have wished was a Filly after looking at the track conditions in Christchurch on the weekend. Like Duckworth Lewis he will be very interesting at the Levin Classic in a couple of weeks if we have a wet November.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (HM) - The Wellington run is the real enigma, lesser company than the victory on the weekend in the Thousand Guineas, both runs were on Heavy tracks, I think I will chalk it up to targeting the Guineas and getting fitter from that Wellington run. The run on the weekend was an interesting performance as she rode three wide without cover, that actually seemed to work to her advantage as she found herself on better ground for the finish despite having to cover more distance than some of the others, you have to give the credit to Hayden Tinsley who described it has an 'underrated' place to be.
Number 5 - Anabandana (2) - Scratched from the Thousand Guineas on the weekend due to track conditions. Seemed well placed throughout the 2000 Guineas and just couldn't quite overcome a strong performance from Rock'n'Pop.
Number 4 - Rock'n'Pop (9) - Got the dream run in the 2k Guineas and won well with Anabandana chasing hard. He is nominated in the Levin Classic, it is hard to know how he rates against Antonio Lombardo as they both were able to overcome Anabandana by similar margins last start.
Number 3 - Dowager Queen (4) - Since winning her last start in New Zealand in September she has traveled to Australia and performed very well placing in four of her five starts at Group level. It is not clear what she will be looking at when she returns to New Zealand, however she will shape up well against other 3YO's.
Number 2 - Antonio Lombardo (1) - Lost top spot in the rankings only on the strength of the victory of the top ranked horse. Currently aiming at the Levin Classic (which is shaping up to be a special race), it is not clear if we will see this colt before November 25th.
Number 1 - Sangster (4) - Held on to win the Victorian Derby impressively, that warrants a jump up the rankings. Hard to know when we will next see this 3YO, however one would assume that the Auckland Derby is a distinct possibility.
Wednesday 9 November 2011
Recovering from the Melbourne Cup hangover
The only bad thing about the Melbourne Cup, or the conclusion of Melbourne Cup week to be more specific, is that the Melbourne Cup and the lead up to the race is such a high point of the season that the next few weeks feel somewhat empty by comparison.
I know this is completely irrational, New Zealand Cup week follows directly on the heels of Melbourne Cup week and it really signals the beginning of the New Zealand summer of racing. I know by January I will be starting my Auckland Cup week countdown and the excitement will begin all over again.
I thought forward about all of the horse racing things I am looking forward to in the coming racing months.
Showcause - Was one of my favourites last year, great to watch him run. He was in pretty good form in Melbourne and I think a return to New Zealand will do him good. His connections would have loved to see him in the Melbourne Cup last week so he must be ready to run the 3200m.
Sir Slick - Is back! He is a 10YO now, I thought he was done, but he has just changed trainers. He starts off back at one of his favourite playgrounds in the Bay of Plenty. While is is possibly past his best he has been such an entertaining horse over the years that just to see him out on the track will bring back a lot of memories. I can definitely see him surprising with some strong runs, he was pretty good last year up until about his last three starts.
Auckland Derby Nominations - This begins next week. We know who a lot of these will be, but it is still exciting to start that count down and start thinking about who will be able to win over 2500m.
The Levin Classic - Rock'n'Pop was impressive with that strong finish once he found a gap on the weekend. Both he and Anabandana settled well and looked in good shape to put in a good finish, this time he came out on top. I was looking forward to this race as the Antonio Lombardo, Anabandana, Burgundy showdown. Now we wont see Burgundy for a while, but after a brave performance from Dollario, and Shanghai Bund's strong forth on the weekend, as well as a horse like Duckworth Lewis beating the older horses at Group Level recently, this race could be a great sight.
Our outstanding 4YO's - I have already discussed this here, but they should make excellent viewing as the season continues.
Waikato Times Gold Cup Day - It is an event I always look forward to, I get together with a large group of friends, load up chili-bins and enjoy a punt in the sun. Unfortunately I wont be able to attend this year (which is another story), I am not sure it has sunk in yet, and I am still hoping to get along for a couple of races early in the day.
Boxing Day - People I know mocked me last week, they were claiming I look forward to the Melbourne Cup more than Christmas or Birthdays. The truth is I look forward to a lot of things more than Christmas, the fact that Boxing day it infinitely more fun and exciting and it is just one day after is a great example. It is a day with a great atmosphere, and hopefully sunshine. It is a day where you can pick an option which suits, go as formal as you like, or just pay an entry fee and sit in the stands and take it all in. You can usually save money by finding a group ticket offer on the Ellerslie website.
Two Year Old Racing in the New Year - The Karaka Million is on the 29th of January. Not all 2YO's are eligible, but the build up for this really seems to start in November and continue. The New Year offers this and both of the Group 1's for the 2YO's.
Random Derby Lead Up days - Ellerslie seems to have meetings every two or three weeks between January and March. On any given race day you can head down there, entry is usually free, sit in the sun and see amazing horses in their derby or Cup week prep. You will be one of probably only a couple of hundred people on course watching this. A great way to spend a bit of a lazy Saturday if you are around Auckland.
Derby Day - Infield, outfield, stand or party. In the sun or rain like last year this day just goes off.
Auckland Cup Day - New Zealand does not have a lot of 3200m races. There is something special about a full field over this distance for a big stake and a Group 1.
Diamond Day - It is underrated, firstly Whips and Spurs is always great. Secondly there are two Group 1 races, there are not many days in New Zealand which can offer that.
As you can see the upcoming season is going to be a great one. This has been excellent therapy, like taking a couple of Nurofen for my Melbourne Cup hangover. I feel better already.
I know this is completely irrational, New Zealand Cup week follows directly on the heels of Melbourne Cup week and it really signals the beginning of the New Zealand summer of racing. I know by January I will be starting my Auckland Cup week countdown and the excitement will begin all over again.
I thought forward about all of the horse racing things I am looking forward to in the coming racing months.
Showcause - Was one of my favourites last year, great to watch him run. He was in pretty good form in Melbourne and I think a return to New Zealand will do him good. His connections would have loved to see him in the Melbourne Cup last week so he must be ready to run the 3200m.
Sir Slick - Is back! He is a 10YO now, I thought he was done, but he has just changed trainers. He starts off back at one of his favourite playgrounds in the Bay of Plenty. While is is possibly past his best he has been such an entertaining horse over the years that just to see him out on the track will bring back a lot of memories. I can definitely see him surprising with some strong runs, he was pretty good last year up until about his last three starts.
Auckland Derby Nominations - This begins next week. We know who a lot of these will be, but it is still exciting to start that count down and start thinking about who will be able to win over 2500m.
The Levin Classic - Rock'n'Pop was impressive with that strong finish once he found a gap on the weekend. Both he and Anabandana settled well and looked in good shape to put in a good finish, this time he came out on top. I was looking forward to this race as the Antonio Lombardo, Anabandana, Burgundy showdown. Now we wont see Burgundy for a while, but after a brave performance from Dollario, and Shanghai Bund's strong forth on the weekend, as well as a horse like Duckworth Lewis beating the older horses at Group Level recently, this race could be a great sight.
Our outstanding 4YO's - I have already discussed this here, but they should make excellent viewing as the season continues.
Waikato Times Gold Cup Day - It is an event I always look forward to, I get together with a large group of friends, load up chili-bins and enjoy a punt in the sun. Unfortunately I wont be able to attend this year (which is another story), I am not sure it has sunk in yet, and I am still hoping to get along for a couple of races early in the day.
Boxing Day - People I know mocked me last week, they were claiming I look forward to the Melbourne Cup more than Christmas or Birthdays. The truth is I look forward to a lot of things more than Christmas, the fact that Boxing day it infinitely more fun and exciting and it is just one day after is a great example. It is a day with a great atmosphere, and hopefully sunshine. It is a day where you can pick an option which suits, go as formal as you like, or just pay an entry fee and sit in the stands and take it all in. You can usually save money by finding a group ticket offer on the Ellerslie website.
Two Year Old Racing in the New Year - The Karaka Million is on the 29th of January. Not all 2YO's are eligible, but the build up for this really seems to start in November and continue. The New Year offers this and both of the Group 1's for the 2YO's.
Random Derby Lead Up days - Ellerslie seems to have meetings every two or three weeks between January and March. On any given race day you can head down there, entry is usually free, sit in the sun and see amazing horses in their derby or Cup week prep. You will be one of probably only a couple of hundred people on course watching this. A great way to spend a bit of a lazy Saturday if you are around Auckland.
Derby Day - Infield, outfield, stand or party. In the sun or rain like last year this day just goes off.
Auckland Cup Day - New Zealand does not have a lot of 3200m races. There is something special about a full field over this distance for a big stake and a Group 1.
Diamond Day - It is underrated, firstly Whips and Spurs is always great. Secondly there are two Group 1 races, there are not many days in New Zealand which can offer that.
As you can see the upcoming season is going to be a great one. This has been excellent therapy, like taking a couple of Nurofen for my Melbourne Cup hangover. I feel better already.
Monday 31 October 2011
2011 Melbourne Cup Preview
They call it "the race that stops a nation". In reality it stops two, with New Zealand grinding to a halt slightly after five local time to watch this storied event. This year it feels like this race will stop many nations, with horses from France, England, Dubai, and Germany having legitimate shots to take away the Cup. In this preview I will count down from 24th to first who I think has the best chance to win the Melbourne Cup in 2011.
Sweepstake Reward Group
While you wouldn't be happy to see these names on your Sweep ticket you might get some reward if last place pays out.
24th - (19) Saptapadi - One win and $86k in winnings, this is a massive ask. Nowhere to be seen in the Caulfield Cup, eighth in the Herbert Power stakes which was not as strong as recent years. Watch this video, there is a lot of Melbourne Cup form on display.
23rd - (20) Shamrocker - Has just not been there this Spring. She placed in two Oaks races last year and won a Derby, that type of pedigree would normally indicate that two miles is a possibility, but recent performances have been lacking.
22th - (8) Fox Hunt - He did win the German St Leger I have no idea how that translates to this. I think this is a bit too much of a step up.
Known Quantities
Horses we know a bit about but would find it hard to recommend.
21st - (13) Hawk Island - There was a lot to like in the Metrop run where he was wide and came at them well. However we probably needed to see more in the Caulfield Cup to seriously consider him here.
20th - (24) Older Than Time - She seems to have had a similar build up to this race as her build up to the Sydney Cup performance in April, the difference is that she has not had the same level of success in her build up for this race. It is hard to see her winning, but she is a horse who will see out the distance and will only carry 51kgs, $101 seems a bit over the odds, but this is a big ask.
19st - (7) Unusual Suspect - His Caulfield cup run was actually good which is why it is hard to have him this far down. He just didn't show enough leading up to that run to make me believe he will win this.
18th - (21) The Verminator - The Metrop winner will carry 52kg again on Tuesday. Barrier four should suit and I imagine he could get a nice trip behind Jukebox Jury and other runners coming from wide to challenge for the lead. Although he is still only carrying 52kgs there are others here who will get a lot more weight relief from past starts. He should give an honest performance but might simply be running into better horses in this event.
Unknown Quantities
Hard to know what to expect from this group. These have not started in Australia.
17th - (16) Modun - Apparently was brought to win this race. Hard to see it this year. Consistent in eight starts. No indication of how he will suit the conditions, but he seems to go well fresh.
16th - (15) Lost in the Moment - Well drawn and has nice weight relief. He is a consistent runner who was in the mix in every race leading up to the Ebor. He has not had an Australian start so is another runner with a lot of unknowns. He is currently paying more with the bookmakers than his stablemate Modun despite more weight relief from that Ebor start.
Could go either way
These two horses should dictate how this race is run and can contend if they stay the distance.
15th - (23) Glass Harmonium - This will be his third start in ten days. His connections will be wondering what could have been in the Cox Plate after that strong run in the Mackinnon on Saturday. He just looked like a strong racehorse in that performance, he showed enough to indicate he could get the 3200m and he is another who seems to pull out his best at Flemington. He will need to go forward from the very wide barrier which is how he races anyway.
14th - (2) Jukebox Jury - If his Irish St Ledger run is anything to go by we will get a good show from this horse on Tuesday. He set a good pace and showed a lot of guts coming home. He will have no problems with 3200m. However it is still hard to pick a winner who has not yet started in Australia, until it happens I will stick to horses who know the conditions.
Middle of the pack
Some definite contenders in this group.They will be vying for a share of the money and could turn some heads.
13th (12) Red Cadeaux - He looked beaten in the Irish St Ledger with 400m to go, but he kept finding extra and ran home strongly. He has a number of starts over more distance, but that type of horse doesn't always go well in this race. He seems to suit all conditions so although he has not tested the Australian conditions in his build up he could surprise.
12th - (6) Manighar - Finished off 2400m well in the Caulfield Cup. He has gone a few consistent races recently without winning one. This is tougher than that Caulfield start but he has merit.
11th - (17)At First Sight - Maybe flying slightly under the radar in this field. He ran a strong close second to December Draw in September, was then entered into six races and trials before actually starting one, in that start he ran second in the Bendigo cup. He broke the maiden ranks in his second of his eleven starts and has not won another one since.
10th - (9) Lucas Cranach - While the fifth placing in the Caulfield Cup was not bad given where he spent most of the race, I did expect more from this highly rated horse. I think Lucas Cranach offers the biggest range of possible outcomes in this race, I think he could win, but I could also see him departing without firing a shot. I will predict a middle of the pack uninspiring performance. In early drafts of this I have had him as high as fifth and as low as fifteenth, I am just not sure what to expect. I know I am underrating this horse, but I keep comparing him to horses further up this list and I just can't move him up.
9th - (18) Moyenne Corniche - There was a lot to like from his run in the Ebor, that race contained a lot of form leading into this race. He took a bit of time to wind up, but showed a good top speed when he reached it, he finished off strongly enough over 2800m. The thing I like about that run was the size of the field and the way he finished in traffic, he will probably need that experience from barrier seventeen. He has had a decent run in Melbourne to acclimatise so will be ready for this. He will only carry 52kgs on Tuesday. He could win this. If he goes well then the likes of Modun, Lost in the Moment, Saptapadi and Fox hunt could also not be far behind. I initially had him further down the pack when drafting this list, but as I keep looking at this he keeps rising in my prediction, but race time tomorrow I might rate him in the top six or seven.
8th - (10) Mourayan - He was full of running at the end of the Mackinnon on Saturday, he has been carrying a lot more weight recently and racing with consistency. I am slightly worried about barrier fourteen as he might get caught in no mans land, he might need luck to find a nice place to sit in the pack.
The Bart Factor
7th -(11) Precedence - Cannot base this high rating on performances on the track. I am purely basing this prediction on this article. I know trainers are going to rate their horse a better chance than it really is in most cases, however you have got to respect Bart when it comes to these things. Tuesday could be a double win for Sir Patrick Hogan as he not only owns a share in Precedence but he owns Zabeel, who has already sired three Melbourne Cup winners and will be looking for a fourth.
Contenders
Have to be seriously considered winning chances
6th - (4) Drunken Sailor - I liked the Caulfield Cup run, he cut across the back of the pack from a wide barrier and was happy just to have a run along the rail. He showed a lot of patience and was unlucky as they bunched up not to get a run, things opened up at about the 300m mark and he ran on well. Barrier eight should see him more handy for a similar staying performance.
5th -(22) Tullamore - I am betting that the form coming out of the Moonee Valley Cup holds up on Tuesday. He also placed in the Caulfield Cup so he seems to be hitting form at a good time. His weight drops 5kgs from that solid chasing performance so you can expect him to be flying home in this.
4th - (14) Illo - He will carry 3.5kgs less than his last start in the Moonee Valley Cup. That was a good performance, he was caught wide and had to move forward, he seemed to hold on well to third and although Americain was getting away from him the weight reduction and a better trip from barrier one will be advantageous here. Bart Cummings has been training this German galloper, he brings strong form into this having won five races from fourteen starts and looks like he has been building up towards longer distances.
3rd - (23) Niwot - Seems to go very well at Flemington. The Lexus had a very strong field and has been a good indicator of Melbourne Cup success over the past few years. He is a stayer who wont be bothered by the 3200m having won over that distance at Flemington in the past, 51kgs makes him look like a great lightweight chance.
Favourites
Should be in every multiple placed on the day it does feel a bit like a coin flip.
2nd - (1) Americain - The deserved favourite. He won here twelve months ago, he has started six times since that race, winning twice. There is no question around his form, he ran a comfortable race in the Moonee Valley Cup to win last start. Prior to his first start in Australia this prep his form was mixed, but this race would have been the target, he was in much better form leading into this race a year ago. He is carrying the top weight of 58kgs, the 3.5kg increase from last year is a question which needs to be asked, but he carried it well in his last start, over the past twelve months he has carried as much as 61kgs. Very few horses have won this race back to back, it has only happened five times, Americian is well placed to make it six.
The Winner
(3) Dunaden - A French Quinella? These horses have met twice in the past twelve months, Dunaden carried 2kgs less than Americain when they finished 9th and 10th respectively in August, Dunaden actually carried 1.5kgs more in April when he finished first and Americain 6th. This time Americain will carry 3.5kgs more, with Dunaden carrying 54.5kgs (incidentally, this what Americain carried winning this race last year). He won the Geelong Cup with a run that made the other horses appear to be standing still on the bend. They say that was not the best Geelong Cup field, however Tanby went on to win the Bendigo Cup the following week, Bauer was improving and shortened significantly with the bookmakers for this race following that performance, and Showcause was pretty strong all spring.
Condensing my thoughts in this manner has been an excellent way to understand how I feel about a lot of the runners. Reading through this again I definitely feel like most of this field has their claims and a case can be made for most of the twenty four runners. This is always a special race, this feels like a particularly strong field. I am pretty confident one of the French horses will come out on top, but I get the impression that we will have a few surprises in the next few horses home.
Sweepstake Reward Group
While you wouldn't be happy to see these names on your Sweep ticket you might get some reward if last place pays out.
24th - (19) Saptapadi - One win and $86k in winnings, this is a massive ask. Nowhere to be seen in the Caulfield Cup, eighth in the Herbert Power stakes which was not as strong as recent years. Watch this video, there is a lot of Melbourne Cup form on display.
23rd - (20) Shamrocker - Has just not been there this Spring. She placed in two Oaks races last year and won a Derby, that type of pedigree would normally indicate that two miles is a possibility, but recent performances have been lacking.
22th - (8) Fox Hunt - He did win the German St Leger I have no idea how that translates to this. I think this is a bit too much of a step up.
Known Quantities
Horses we know a bit about but would find it hard to recommend.
21st - (13) Hawk Island - There was a lot to like in the Metrop run where he was wide and came at them well. However we probably needed to see more in the Caulfield Cup to seriously consider him here.
20th - (24) Older Than Time - She seems to have had a similar build up to this race as her build up to the Sydney Cup performance in April, the difference is that she has not had the same level of success in her build up for this race. It is hard to see her winning, but she is a horse who will see out the distance and will only carry 51kgs, $101 seems a bit over the odds, but this is a big ask.
19st - (7) Unusual Suspect - His Caulfield cup run was actually good which is why it is hard to have him this far down. He just didn't show enough leading up to that run to make me believe he will win this.
18th - (21) The Verminator - The Metrop winner will carry 52kg again on Tuesday. Barrier four should suit and I imagine he could get a nice trip behind Jukebox Jury and other runners coming from wide to challenge for the lead. Although he is still only carrying 52kgs there are others here who will get a lot more weight relief from past starts. He should give an honest performance but might simply be running into better horses in this event.
Unknown Quantities
Hard to know what to expect from this group. These have not started in Australia.
17th - (16) Modun - Apparently was brought to win this race. Hard to see it this year. Consistent in eight starts. No indication of how he will suit the conditions, but he seems to go well fresh.
16th - (15) Lost in the Moment - Well drawn and has nice weight relief. He is a consistent runner who was in the mix in every race leading up to the Ebor. He has not had an Australian start so is another runner with a lot of unknowns. He is currently paying more with the bookmakers than his stablemate Modun despite more weight relief from that Ebor start.
Could go either way
These two horses should dictate how this race is run and can contend if they stay the distance.
15th - (23) Glass Harmonium - This will be his third start in ten days. His connections will be wondering what could have been in the Cox Plate after that strong run in the Mackinnon on Saturday. He just looked like a strong racehorse in that performance, he showed enough to indicate he could get the 3200m and he is another who seems to pull out his best at Flemington. He will need to go forward from the very wide barrier which is how he races anyway.
14th - (2) Jukebox Jury - If his Irish St Ledger run is anything to go by we will get a good show from this horse on Tuesday. He set a good pace and showed a lot of guts coming home. He will have no problems with 3200m. However it is still hard to pick a winner who has not yet started in Australia, until it happens I will stick to horses who know the conditions.
Middle of the pack
Some definite contenders in this group.They will be vying for a share of the money and could turn some heads.
13th (12) Red Cadeaux - He looked beaten in the Irish St Ledger with 400m to go, but he kept finding extra and ran home strongly. He has a number of starts over more distance, but that type of horse doesn't always go well in this race. He seems to suit all conditions so although he has not tested the Australian conditions in his build up he could surprise.
12th - (6) Manighar - Finished off 2400m well in the Caulfield Cup. He has gone a few consistent races recently without winning one. This is tougher than that Caulfield start but he has merit.
11th - (17)At First Sight - Maybe flying slightly under the radar in this field. He ran a strong close second to December Draw in September, was then entered into six races and trials before actually starting one, in that start he ran second in the Bendigo cup. He broke the maiden ranks in his second of his eleven starts and has not won another one since.
10th - (9) Lucas Cranach - While the fifth placing in the Caulfield Cup was not bad given where he spent most of the race, I did expect more from this highly rated horse. I think Lucas Cranach offers the biggest range of possible outcomes in this race, I think he could win, but I could also see him departing without firing a shot. I will predict a middle of the pack uninspiring performance. In early drafts of this I have had him as high as fifth and as low as fifteenth, I am just not sure what to expect. I know I am underrating this horse, but I keep comparing him to horses further up this list and I just can't move him up.
9th - (18) Moyenne Corniche - There was a lot to like from his run in the Ebor, that race contained a lot of form leading into this race. He took a bit of time to wind up, but showed a good top speed when he reached it, he finished off strongly enough over 2800m. The thing I like about that run was the size of the field and the way he finished in traffic, he will probably need that experience from barrier seventeen. He has had a decent run in Melbourne to acclimatise so will be ready for this. He will only carry 52kgs on Tuesday. He could win this. If he goes well then the likes of Modun, Lost in the Moment, Saptapadi and Fox hunt could also not be far behind. I initially had him further down the pack when drafting this list, but as I keep looking at this he keeps rising in my prediction, but race time tomorrow I might rate him in the top six or seven.
8th - (10) Mourayan - He was full of running at the end of the Mackinnon on Saturday, he has been carrying a lot more weight recently and racing with consistency. I am slightly worried about barrier fourteen as he might get caught in no mans land, he might need luck to find a nice place to sit in the pack.
The Bart Factor
7th -(11) Precedence - Cannot base this high rating on performances on the track. I am purely basing this prediction on this article. I know trainers are going to rate their horse a better chance than it really is in most cases, however you have got to respect Bart when it comes to these things. Tuesday could be a double win for Sir Patrick Hogan as he not only owns a share in Precedence but he owns Zabeel, who has already sired three Melbourne Cup winners and will be looking for a fourth.
Contenders
Have to be seriously considered winning chances
6th - (4) Drunken Sailor - I liked the Caulfield Cup run, he cut across the back of the pack from a wide barrier and was happy just to have a run along the rail. He showed a lot of patience and was unlucky as they bunched up not to get a run, things opened up at about the 300m mark and he ran on well. Barrier eight should see him more handy for a similar staying performance.
5th -(22) Tullamore - I am betting that the form coming out of the Moonee Valley Cup holds up on Tuesday. He also placed in the Caulfield Cup so he seems to be hitting form at a good time. His weight drops 5kgs from that solid chasing performance so you can expect him to be flying home in this.
4th - (14) Illo - He will carry 3.5kgs less than his last start in the Moonee Valley Cup. That was a good performance, he was caught wide and had to move forward, he seemed to hold on well to third and although Americain was getting away from him the weight reduction and a better trip from barrier one will be advantageous here. Bart Cummings has been training this German galloper, he brings strong form into this having won five races from fourteen starts and looks like he has been building up towards longer distances.
3rd - (23) Niwot - Seems to go very well at Flemington. The Lexus had a very strong field and has been a good indicator of Melbourne Cup success over the past few years. He is a stayer who wont be bothered by the 3200m having won over that distance at Flemington in the past, 51kgs makes him look like a great lightweight chance.
Favourites
Should be in every multiple placed on the day it does feel a bit like a coin flip.
2nd - (1) Americain - The deserved favourite. He won here twelve months ago, he has started six times since that race, winning twice. There is no question around his form, he ran a comfortable race in the Moonee Valley Cup to win last start. Prior to his first start in Australia this prep his form was mixed, but this race would have been the target, he was in much better form leading into this race a year ago. He is carrying the top weight of 58kgs, the 3.5kg increase from last year is a question which needs to be asked, but he carried it well in his last start, over the past twelve months he has carried as much as 61kgs. Very few horses have won this race back to back, it has only happened five times, Americian is well placed to make it six.
The Winner
(3) Dunaden - A French Quinella? These horses have met twice in the past twelve months, Dunaden carried 2kgs less than Americain when they finished 9th and 10th respectively in August, Dunaden actually carried 1.5kgs more in April when he finished first and Americain 6th. This time Americain will carry 3.5kgs more, with Dunaden carrying 54.5kgs (incidentally, this what Americain carried winning this race last year). He won the Geelong Cup with a run that made the other horses appear to be standing still on the bend. They say that was not the best Geelong Cup field, however Tanby went on to win the Bendigo Cup the following week, Bauer was improving and shortened significantly with the bookmakers for this race following that performance, and Showcause was pretty strong all spring.
Condensing my thoughts in this manner has been an excellent way to understand how I feel about a lot of the runners. Reading through this again I definitely feel like most of this field has their claims and a case can be made for most of the twenty four runners. This is always a special race, this feels like a particularly strong field. I am pretty confident one of the French horses will come out on top, but I get the impression that we will have a few surprises in the next few horses home.
Friday 28 October 2011
A look at the Derby Day Quaddie
With only four days to go until the Melbourne Cup people all over New Zealand are gearing up for the only horse race they watch all year. It is a particular shame this year because of the quality of horses coming out of New Zealand at the moment, local racing is well worth watching, there is also a number of quality horses which will be on show during Victoria Derby Day. I cannot remember a Melbourne Cup in recent times without a participant from New Zealand, and without a strong run from Booming or an outstanding performance from Showcause on Saturday at Derby Day there may not be one this year.
As much as the spectacle of the Melbourne Cup is exciting and amazing to see, Derby Day is the day of the Melbourne Cup carnival I tend to look forward to the most. Big races all day with quality fields, and this year there is a huge quaddie on offer. I believe because of the co-mingling of the pools this is also on offer to punters in New Zealand, but to be honest I have no idea how that works. As big as the pool for the quaddie this week it is also a very difficult one to select, so today I am hoping break down some of the chances in each race. I will then briefly look at some of the other big races on a great day of racing.
Quaddie Preview
Leg One - AAMI Victoria Derby
Hard to leave out
Manawanui - Can he stay? well I think he proved that with his performance in the AAMI Vase last weekend, it is hard to tell if he even got to top gear. He might be the closest thing to a Anchor we have, but with so many horses running anything can happen. Often at this stage in the career of a three year old it may not be the best stayer who wins this race but the best athlete, Manawanui certainly appears to have the talent.
Stangster - I watched his last start again to see what happened. He really had to make a move early, he had to travel three wide and at times he seemed wider around the bend, he got in the clear and unleashed his run. His run was early and he ran out of steam, but he still really had most of them beat. I am confident he will get the 2500m. His draw is comfortable and he should find himself somewhere in the middle of the pack. He is hard to leave out.
Induna - One of the few who has started at greater than 2000m more than once, he also has a start at 1900m, you have to believe the prep for this race has been good. The Geelong Classic run was impressive, he definitely looks up to this level.
Potential Quaddie Buster - for this purpose I will pick one who might be under the radar who could potentially spoil the quaddie (will only select horses paying over $20).
Cornell ($51) - Hard to see where he is going to make up the three plus lengths to Induna from the last time they met, however of the $20+ crowd he looks the most likely.
Value Bet
Sarbage ($15) - pretty good value on a runner who flew past Sangster last start.
Worth Considering
Collar
Perfect Punch
Niagara
Mr Chez
Leg Two - Myer Classic
Hard to leave out
More Joyous - If Manawanui wins the first leg and More Joyous the second there will be a lot of live units remaining. She had some sort of saddle problem prior to her last start, her price pushed out as people doubted this great mare, she became great value for a horse we know to be of top quality. During the running she was back and at times uncovered but once she hit top gear she really zoomed home, and while she didn't win by a lot she still crossed the finish line first. She has three wins from four over the mile so this distance will suit. Again, with a lot of chances in this race it is hard to recommend her as an anchor but depending on your Manawanui feelings she might be the next closest thing.
Lady Lynette - Has limited success on the track, but last two runs have been good. She goes well over the distance. I would have thought she was a better chance in this before disappointing two starts back. Before her win here she was fourth to Pinker Pinker and then third to Kings Rose and Pinker Pinker. Seems a bit over the odds at $21.
Mosheen - Form and at 49kgs there is a lot of get excited about. She is consistent and 1600m record has been proven. Looks like a great chance to upset the favourite.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Other than Lady Lynette.
Skyerush ($26)- Simply based on consistency it is hard not to consider her. She has proven herself over 1600m and it seems about right at this point in her prep.
Value Bet
Other than the two mentioned above there is good value around Guisepinna ($21) if she makes the field. Banchee for a place. Goon Serpent ($21) might be good value, but there is plenty of value in this race.
Worth Considering
It is possible to make a case for about three quarters of the field.
Leg Three - Salinger Stakes
This is where punters will have to go wide to take in a lot of runners.
Hard to leave out
Temple of Boom - Great record course and distance. Was very good last time. Only concern is the quality of the other runners and the draw.
Sister Madly - 1200m just suits this mare. Very good form at present, only losing to Sepoy and More Joyous in recent starts.
Curtana - Kept close enough to Sepoy last start to justify inclusion.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Only three paying greater than $20 in this close betting race. Hard to see any of them busting your quaddie here as there are eight runners paying between $4.50 and $13. However Black Piranah at $51 looks the best of the over $20 bunch, he has the class but maybe not quite the form over 1200m in recent times.
Value Bet
Temple of Boom is pretty good value, the market here looks pretty even maybe Curtana and Catapulted are slightly over too.
Worth Considering
Any of the mentioned runners in that group of Eight.
Neeson, Stirling Grove, and Catapulted look most likely to figure.
Leg Four - TAB.COM.AU Stakes
You will be doing very well if you are still alive for this one, but it is not any easier.
Hard to leave out
Doubtful Jack - Has first hand experience what it is like to see the rump of Black Caviar, but so does every other horse she has ever faced on a racetrack. Pretty good tune up run in a small field, consistent of late and loves Flemington.
Lunary - It is all falling into place to make it four from four at Flemington, loves 1400m and is brilliant second up. Barrier eight and 54kgs make this look like an outstanding chance.
Niblick - Another with strong C'n'D form. Also been good on the track recently, can do 53.5kg with ease, another to must include.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Largo Lad - Is another with form on the course and over the distance. He looks primed to put in a good show here, and $26 offers good value.
Value Bet
Toorak Toff ($15)- Was in good form before the run to nowhere in the Toorak. 1400m is better but will have to contend with barrier fifteen and 59kgs.
Worth Considering
Thankgodyou'rehere (draw concerns)
Amaethon
Happy Zero (Value)
Other Races to Enjoy
All of them of course. Dowager Queen looking for an Aussie victory in race three has a good chance to upset the favourite. Sepoy will put on a show in the forth.
Race two is the Lexus stakes. Always a good chance to get into the cup, and the winner here is worth considering, Shocking won the Cup after winning this a couple of years back.
The Mackinnon Stakes is looking like the race of the day. Will be interesting to see how Cox Plate runners rebound from last week and how horses like the Metrop winner The Verminator, Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed will go here. I have more things to consider.
As much as the spectacle of the Melbourne Cup is exciting and amazing to see, Derby Day is the day of the Melbourne Cup carnival I tend to look forward to the most. Big races all day with quality fields, and this year there is a huge quaddie on offer. I believe because of the co-mingling of the pools this is also on offer to punters in New Zealand, but to be honest I have no idea how that works. As big as the pool for the quaddie this week it is also a very difficult one to select, so today I am hoping break down some of the chances in each race. I will then briefly look at some of the other big races on a great day of racing.
Quaddie Preview
Leg One - AAMI Victoria Derby
Hard to leave out
Manawanui - Can he stay? well I think he proved that with his performance in the AAMI Vase last weekend, it is hard to tell if he even got to top gear. He might be the closest thing to a Anchor we have, but with so many horses running anything can happen. Often at this stage in the career of a three year old it may not be the best stayer who wins this race but the best athlete, Manawanui certainly appears to have the talent.
Stangster - I watched his last start again to see what happened. He really had to make a move early, he had to travel three wide and at times he seemed wider around the bend, he got in the clear and unleashed his run. His run was early and he ran out of steam, but he still really had most of them beat. I am confident he will get the 2500m. His draw is comfortable and he should find himself somewhere in the middle of the pack. He is hard to leave out.
Induna - One of the few who has started at greater than 2000m more than once, he also has a start at 1900m, you have to believe the prep for this race has been good. The Geelong Classic run was impressive, he definitely looks up to this level.
Potential Quaddie Buster - for this purpose I will pick one who might be under the radar who could potentially spoil the quaddie (will only select horses paying over $20).
Cornell ($51) - Hard to see where he is going to make up the three plus lengths to Induna from the last time they met, however of the $20+ crowd he looks the most likely.
Value Bet
Sarbage ($15) - pretty good value on a runner who flew past Sangster last start.
Worth Considering
Collar
Perfect Punch
Niagara
Mr Chez
Leg Two - Myer Classic
Hard to leave out
More Joyous - If Manawanui wins the first leg and More Joyous the second there will be a lot of live units remaining. She had some sort of saddle problem prior to her last start, her price pushed out as people doubted this great mare, she became great value for a horse we know to be of top quality. During the running she was back and at times uncovered but once she hit top gear she really zoomed home, and while she didn't win by a lot she still crossed the finish line first. She has three wins from four over the mile so this distance will suit. Again, with a lot of chances in this race it is hard to recommend her as an anchor but depending on your Manawanui feelings she might be the next closest thing.
Lady Lynette - Has limited success on the track, but last two runs have been good. She goes well over the distance. I would have thought she was a better chance in this before disappointing two starts back. Before her win here she was fourth to Pinker Pinker and then third to Kings Rose and Pinker Pinker. Seems a bit over the odds at $21.
Mosheen - Form and at 49kgs there is a lot of get excited about. She is consistent and 1600m record has been proven. Looks like a great chance to upset the favourite.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Other than Lady Lynette.
Skyerush ($26)- Simply based on consistency it is hard not to consider her. She has proven herself over 1600m and it seems about right at this point in her prep.
Value Bet
Other than the two mentioned above there is good value around Guisepinna ($21) if she makes the field. Banchee for a place. Goon Serpent ($21) might be good value, but there is plenty of value in this race.
Worth Considering
It is possible to make a case for about three quarters of the field.
Leg Three - Salinger Stakes
This is where punters will have to go wide to take in a lot of runners.
Hard to leave out
Temple of Boom - Great record course and distance. Was very good last time. Only concern is the quality of the other runners and the draw.
Sister Madly - 1200m just suits this mare. Very good form at present, only losing to Sepoy and More Joyous in recent starts.
Curtana - Kept close enough to Sepoy last start to justify inclusion.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Only three paying greater than $20 in this close betting race. Hard to see any of them busting your quaddie here as there are eight runners paying between $4.50 and $13. However Black Piranah at $51 looks the best of the over $20 bunch, he has the class but maybe not quite the form over 1200m in recent times.
Value Bet
Temple of Boom is pretty good value, the market here looks pretty even maybe Curtana and Catapulted are slightly over too.
Worth Considering
Any of the mentioned runners in that group of Eight.
Neeson, Stirling Grove, and Catapulted look most likely to figure.
Leg Four - TAB.COM.AU Stakes
You will be doing very well if you are still alive for this one, but it is not any easier.
Hard to leave out
Doubtful Jack - Has first hand experience what it is like to see the rump of Black Caviar, but so does every other horse she has ever faced on a racetrack. Pretty good tune up run in a small field, consistent of late and loves Flemington.
Lunary - It is all falling into place to make it four from four at Flemington, loves 1400m and is brilliant second up. Barrier eight and 54kgs make this look like an outstanding chance.
Niblick - Another with strong C'n'D form. Also been good on the track recently, can do 53.5kg with ease, another to must include.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Largo Lad - Is another with form on the course and over the distance. He looks primed to put in a good show here, and $26 offers good value.
Value Bet
Toorak Toff ($15)- Was in good form before the run to nowhere in the Toorak. 1400m is better but will have to contend with barrier fifteen and 59kgs.
Worth Considering
Thankgodyou'rehere (draw concerns)
Amaethon
Happy Zero (Value)
Other Races to Enjoy
All of them of course. Dowager Queen looking for an Aussie victory in race three has a good chance to upset the favourite. Sepoy will put on a show in the forth.
Race two is the Lexus stakes. Always a good chance to get into the cup, and the winner here is worth considering, Shocking won the Cup after winning this a couple of years back.
- Tullamore and Green Moon are genuine Melbourne Cup contenders. Tullamore should be in the 24, Green Moon is at 32nd on the order of entry, he really needs this.
- Showcause had a good performance in the Geelong Cup, he is not as out of this as $15 suggests, he probably needs to win as he is currently at 37th in line for the Cup.
- Niwot is short with the bookmakers and performed well course and distance in the Bart Cummings, a winner recently at Flemington over 3200m is 34th in the order and likely needs a win here to get a Cup shot.
- I thought Aundjawun looked pretty good at Moonee Valley last start, at 40th for the cup he will need this win, $15 odds looks about right and possibly good value.
- Older Than Time is in the Cup if they want it, seems to be improving and another one who could go well here.
- Booming can start the Cup if he wants it, sounds like he will need to have a good showing here to be given the start on Tuesday, still looks like an outside winning chance
The Mackinnon Stakes is looking like the race of the day. Will be interesting to see how Cox Plate runners rebound from last week and how horses like the Metrop winner The Verminator, Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed will go here. I have more things to consider.
- I picked Glass Harmonium to win the Cox Plate. He lost that race in the first five meters of the 2040m trip. Do you give him another chance? I tend to agree with Mike Moroney, I think it will be unlikely that there will be so much disruption before this race and that he (the horse) is worth another shot.
- Wall Street has been kept a lot safer this week after a flying fourth in the Cox Plate. Will likely jump better this week and be in a better position to make a run at them.
- Efficient, looked great last week, he got squeezed out when making a run at the end and still came 6th.
- It feels like a good opportunity for Ginga Dude, $31 is pretty good value. Won on the course and distance about a year ago, will probably challenge Glass Harmonium for the lead.
- Despite the Verminator's good form and love of 2000m, hard to see the 59kgs suit. One can assume he will start on Tuesday in the Cup, so if you want a run on Saturday why not hit the Lexus?
- Rekindled interest was excellent last week. Should get a great trip from barrier five with Ginga Dude moving forward. Unlucky at the finish last week and still charged home for third.
- Southern Speed, unfortunately I think the weight will be a bit too much. However she has been excellent all spring and is never too far away.
- Lights of Heaven, has to be considered after her last start effort in strong field.
Tuesday 25 October 2011
Three Year Old Power Rankings
It is about time I revised my New Zealand 3YO Power rankings, there are two reasons for the revision, firstly the first edition had a massive oversight and didn't include Sangster, secondly a lot changes quickly amongst the 3YO's, some have lost, some have won, and there were three big 3YO races in New Zealand on the weekend which definitely effected this stuff. I will aim to revise these at least monthly as the season progresses and add in 2YO rankings once there is a bit more form around these.
I guess what is required is a definition of 'Power' for the purpose of the power rankings, another thing I didn't do properly when I first attempted this. There is no formula, it is not the highest rated, nor are they a genuine indication of which 3YO would beat each other 3YO (all things been equal). I am applying an incredibly loose and very subjective definition of Power for these rankings will be an indication of my impression of a number of factors including
Burgundy had won his only start at that time (and has subsequently won a second and third), he was clearly a colt with a lot of hype (a lot to do with his million dollar plus price tag), and that he was moving up in favouritism for the Guineas.
Power Rankings
Dropped from rankings: Testa Secret (5), Kasumi (6), Estrato (7), Whoshe (9), Savabil (10)
Honourable Mention: Bulwer Bay (hard to leave out), Planet Rock (maybe can blame the track on the weekend), Kasumi (need to see the next start), Ginner Hart (has not raced since mentioned last start), Prestigious Miss (same).
The Top 10
Number 10 - Artistic (8) - Came from the back again on Monday. She would have been hoping for third in that tough race, but it was another impressive performance, a similar pattern has emerged from her last two starts and we know she will be flying home in the Guineas.
Number 9 - Rock and Pop (N/A) Hard to rank, would be a bit easier had he beaten Planet Rock a couple of weekends ago, particularly after Planet Rock's run on Saturday at Wellington. Definitely cannot be ahead of Shuka on any list.
Number 8 - President Lincoln (N/A) - He has now won two from three, and put up an impressive performance in the Group 2 Wellington Guineas on the weekend. It was a reasonably strong field and you have to give him credit, but it looked like he just handled the conditions better than most. Will be interesting if he can show that finish on a better track, but definitely one to watch in the wet.
Number 7 - Shuka (N/A) - Two impressive runs. He was very unlikely to beat Burgundy, but he did beat Bulwer Bay who has emerged over his past two starts. In recent weeks he has beaten Rock and Pop. He was a Group 2 winner last year who also ran for Fifth in both 2YO Group 1's.
Number 6 - Holy Moly (N/A) - Impressive again on Monday for third, she did seem to be slowly making up ground on two horses we know are very strong, it makes two impressive runs in a row. Although it may be hard to beat Anabandana in the Thousand Guineas she is indicating that she might be the best of the rest.
Number 5 - Sangster (N/A) - Been watching him more closely since he was tipped to me as a derby winner a few weeks ago. The Derby is an extra 500m from what he has been running, and he ran out of steam last start. Looking back at that race again it still looks to me like the opportunity was there and it had to be taken by James McDonald. Sangster did really kick clear of the field opening a gap between the 300m and 200m marks, he fought hard and was only taken in the last 10m or so, Niagara who ran 3rd was really the only other horse who appeared to be making up ground at the end. If he gets a good draw and finds a nice position the 2500m shouldn't be an issue. The problem will be Manawanui who once again looked great on Saturday.
Number 4 - Dowager Queen (3) - She drops mainly because of the dominance of Burgundy. I like her chances to win a Group 2 in Melbourne this weekend after her last two starts against strong company. I was particularly impressed by the weaving run through traffic for second at Caulfield last start.
Number 3 - Burgundy (4) - Faced his biggest test to date and did so without worries. I cannot remember seeing a horse bound from the gates as quickly as he did on Sunday. Watching that race (on replay because like most people in New Zealand I spent Sunday afternoon "preparing" for the Rugby World Cup Final) I half expected him to take off about 600m out, he just looked like he was trying to go for it. Matthew Cameron resisted the temptation, and when he did unwind he did so with ease, but also appeared to have more to offer if it was required. Is he the best 3YO at the moment? possibly, but it may not be until the Levin Classic that we get to find out for sure.
Number 2 - Anabandana (1) - Hard to drop too her too far. She came well for Antonio Lombardo, but just couldn't catch him. Surprisingly, she looked to make up some ground towards the 400m, but once Antonio Lombardo shot clear it was probably as close as she got to him.
Number 1 - Antonio Lombardo (2) - Beat number one, had to take over the top spot. Great performance on the weekend, once again Sam Spratt controlled the race, he just seemed to have too much for them. I didn't see him wear down as the race went on, he is definitely looking good for the step up to the mile in the Levin Classic.
In making this list I think I have only confused myself further. As we hit the 3YO Group 1's in a couple of weeks this will become easier to make but right now there are five 3YO's I believe are clearly better than the rest. I just hope I have not lost track of any this time.
I guess what is required is a definition of 'Power' for the purpose of the power rankings, another thing I didn't do properly when I first attempted this. There is no formula, it is not the highest rated, nor are they a genuine indication of which 3YO would beat each other 3YO (all things been equal). I am applying an incredibly loose and very subjective definition of Power for these rankings will be an indication of my impression of a number of factors including
- Overall Record
- Recent Form
- Dominance of victories
- Form in 'big' races
- Form against other top 3YO (and older) talent
- Buzz (Media and Bookie)
Burgundy had won his only start at that time (and has subsequently won a second and third), he was clearly a colt with a lot of hype (a lot to do with his million dollar plus price tag), and that he was moving up in favouritism for the Guineas.
Power Rankings
Dropped from rankings: Testa Secret (5), Kasumi (6), Estrato (7), Whoshe (9), Savabil (10)
Honourable Mention: Bulwer Bay (hard to leave out), Planet Rock (maybe can blame the track on the weekend), Kasumi (need to see the next start), Ginner Hart (has not raced since mentioned last start), Prestigious Miss (same).
The Top 10
Number 10 - Artistic (8) - Came from the back again on Monday. She would have been hoping for third in that tough race, but it was another impressive performance, a similar pattern has emerged from her last two starts and we know she will be flying home in the Guineas.
Number 9 - Rock and Pop (N/A) Hard to rank, would be a bit easier had he beaten Planet Rock a couple of weekends ago, particularly after Planet Rock's run on Saturday at Wellington. Definitely cannot be ahead of Shuka on any list.
Number 8 - President Lincoln (N/A) - He has now won two from three, and put up an impressive performance in the Group 2 Wellington Guineas on the weekend. It was a reasonably strong field and you have to give him credit, but it looked like he just handled the conditions better than most. Will be interesting if he can show that finish on a better track, but definitely one to watch in the wet.
Number 7 - Shuka (N/A) - Two impressive runs. He was very unlikely to beat Burgundy, but he did beat Bulwer Bay who has emerged over his past two starts. In recent weeks he has beaten Rock and Pop. He was a Group 2 winner last year who also ran for Fifth in both 2YO Group 1's.
Number 6 - Holy Moly (N/A) - Impressive again on Monday for third, she did seem to be slowly making up ground on two horses we know are very strong, it makes two impressive runs in a row. Although it may be hard to beat Anabandana in the Thousand Guineas she is indicating that she might be the best of the rest.
Number 5 - Sangster (N/A) - Been watching him more closely since he was tipped to me as a derby winner a few weeks ago. The Derby is an extra 500m from what he has been running, and he ran out of steam last start. Looking back at that race again it still looks to me like the opportunity was there and it had to be taken by James McDonald. Sangster did really kick clear of the field opening a gap between the 300m and 200m marks, he fought hard and was only taken in the last 10m or so, Niagara who ran 3rd was really the only other horse who appeared to be making up ground at the end. If he gets a good draw and finds a nice position the 2500m shouldn't be an issue. The problem will be Manawanui who once again looked great on Saturday.
Number 4 - Dowager Queen (3) - She drops mainly because of the dominance of Burgundy. I like her chances to win a Group 2 in Melbourne this weekend after her last two starts against strong company. I was particularly impressed by the weaving run through traffic for second at Caulfield last start.
Number 3 - Burgundy (4) - Faced his biggest test to date and did so without worries. I cannot remember seeing a horse bound from the gates as quickly as he did on Sunday. Watching that race (on replay because like most people in New Zealand I spent Sunday afternoon "preparing" for the Rugby World Cup Final) I half expected him to take off about 600m out, he just looked like he was trying to go for it. Matthew Cameron resisted the temptation, and when he did unwind he did so with ease, but also appeared to have more to offer if it was required. Is he the best 3YO at the moment? possibly, but it may not be until the Levin Classic that we get to find out for sure.
Number 2 - Anabandana (1) - Hard to drop too her too far. She came well for Antonio Lombardo, but just couldn't catch him. Surprisingly, she looked to make up some ground towards the 400m, but once Antonio Lombardo shot clear it was probably as close as she got to him.
Number 1 - Antonio Lombardo (2) - Beat number one, had to take over the top spot. Great performance on the weekend, once again Sam Spratt controlled the race, he just seemed to have too much for them. I didn't see him wear down as the race went on, he is definitely looking good for the step up to the mile in the Levin Classic.
In making this list I think I have only confused myself further. As we hit the 3YO Group 1's in a couple of weeks this will become easier to make but right now there are five 3YO's I believe are clearly better than the rest. I just hope I have not lost track of any this time.
Friday 21 October 2011
A long weekend of Racing
This long weekend many New Zealand eyes will be focused on the Rugby World Cup final. The French may not be able to pull off a Rugby World Cup win on the weekend but they are starting to look even more likely to take home a second consecutive Melbourne Cup after Dunaden's impressive run in the Geelong Cup, we will get a better idea of Americian's form on Cox Plate day. Many of New Zealand's horse racing fan's eyes will be focused on Melbourne as several Kiwi horses take on the big races from Moonee Valley, however there is great racing action happening at home, here are some things to look out for over this long weekend.
Saturday
Auckland
The ARC will shout everyone on course a drink if Jimmy Choux wins the Cox Plate. If that is not incentive enough the whether is looking fine and the racing damn fine starting with an interesting race for the 3YO's and an early season look at some 2YO's.
Race 3 is definitely an interesting one, it is a Rating 70 race over 2400m, but it features horses who may be better than that, Maythehorsebemagic used to carrying a lot of weight over the jumps and searching for its first win in 12 starts at Ellerslie, super consistent Zardetto will have the services of Opie Bosson who won last time he rode him, underrated Toby Cee probably needs this extra distance, but the one which stands out is D'Nood Lady who ran a good 4th in a tougher Rating 80 race in Auckland over this distance two starts back, has been consistent recently and the horse who won that race at Ellerslie went on to win a Listed level race its next start.
Race 4 is a 2400m Rating 80 race, but features many who have been racing in higher grades in consistent form and also features Black Fox having start number 120 and number 52 at Ellerslie. There is a lot of up and coming rating 80 talent on show in race six, definitely a few to keep an eye on as they raise through the grades. Race 7 features a lot of top talent with several runners displaying form on the course.
Wellington
Wellington offers excellent feature racing including the Wellington Guineas. The first race may feature the talented Planet Rock, but I suspect she is more likely to be spotted in the Guineas later that day, but it is an interesting field of the next level of 3YO's to open up the program.
Race 3 the Wellesley Boutique Hotel Stakes should be interesting, it is a Listed 2YO race which features several 2YO's who have already broken the maiden ranks. Still hard to know exactly what to expect, it looks like several of runners in this race to notch up a victory would be suited to slightly more distance. Killa Question is the sole runner with Heavy track form, although several others have form on Slow tracks. Will be a good early look at 2YO's likely to feature in a lot of the Group and Listed races for 2YO's as the summer progresses.
I am very interested to see if Baby Guinness can win its third in a row. It is a horse I like a lot, and a tasty shot (not the kind of horse related shot you might find at a wild foods festival). Another good win here and we could see her start to take on races like the Rich Hill Stud Thompson Handicap, which is the first feature race of the day. A great field, with a handful backing up from the either the Matamata Cup or other similar strong Taranaki, Hawkes Bay or Rotorua races. It is a strong betting race as punters have had a good chance to have a look at a lot of these runners in recent weeks. Here is how I see a few of the contenders.
My First Four
(2) Justanexcuse - Came home very well when second in a strong Matamata Cup field, only penalised a half kilo for this start. He had another strong third in a tough race in the Hawkes Bay prior to that where Twlight Savings was dominant. Has been very consistent recently and tends to get better with more racing, winning five out of seven victories from "8th up" onwards.He brings a great on course record and was a winner here in January. If the track remains heavy it will not worry Justanexcuse with three wins and four placings under those conditions.
(9) Guessing - Has almost not won for over a year. Mixed her form a bit recently, but the Taranaki Breeders Stakes run was very strong, and on the strength of that performance she must be included. She has a better draw today than her last four double digit draws. She drops in weight from her last three outings. This is a horse who won five in a row last year and has won forth up in the past.
(8) No Excuse Maggie - Will carry an extra 1.5kgs this week. John Bary cant do much wrong at the moment, this might be the start of a very big day for his stable. No Excuse Maggie is a very consistent miler who looked very good last start. She wont mind it wet under foot. She has been very consistent recently and looked very strong with her last start win.
(11) Lady Kipling -Group 1 Placed as a 3YO this mare has run in top company throughout her career with good success but without notching up a black type victory, today could be her day. She is in very good form, her last two victories have been convincing at lower grades. She typically has performed best early in her campaigns so 3rd up should suit her well. She will also only carry 53kg's and retain the services of top Jockey Lisa Allpress. Barrier draw might concern, but she typically runs slightly off the pace anyway so potentially she will find a nice place to sit.
Some others to look at
(4) Kaap Kruis - Probably ready for the mile at the moment. The worry is the extra 1.5kg's from the 5th to Twlight savings two starts back in Hastings. Another with very strong wet track form and success on the track. His best racing may have passed him by this prep, but an interesting runner who could grab a place.
(6) Ourforeignminister - Won or placed in his last four, including a win in a similar field last start.Has had over a month off and typically doesn't go that well in that state. Will also carry an extra 2.5kg's here, but he has won carrying around this weight in the past.
(7) Intransigent - A horse I have looked a lot in recent weeks. Had a good win last week at long odds.Dropping back to 1600m is a bit of a concern. He will carry an extra 1.5kgs, but he should get a good trip from barrier two. There is a lot to scare you away from him this week.
The other Wellington feature is the Guineas, it will be a good look at some of the contenders ahead of the Canterbury Group 1's next month. There are three races for 3YO's on this week which thins out some of the potential fields particularly if you look at the murders row assembled in Hamilton for Monday. A lot of interest will be focused on Burgundy on Sunday. This is a strong field but I see Planet Rock is nominated for both this and the race on Sunday in Christchurch, so I can only assume he will race in this.
The chances
(10) Planet Rock - Simply looks the one to beat here. Her narrow victory last start was over the impressive and highly rated Rock and Pop. She ran a good third in the Karaka Million last year, and has always been consistent throughout her short career. Not sure if she will start this or the Sunday race, but I like her chances here more.
(1) Distil - Didn't fire first up as a 3YO, but ran a 3rd and a 4th in Group 1's as a 2YO. He did run home in a race which was dominated by top 3YO Antonio Lombardo, 1500m should be suitable. Not enough known to know if he can get back to his best, I am looking towards those big race performances as a guide to his ability.
(9) Whoshe - I have gone off this filly since the run in Auckland for Third, she was maybe exposed that day as not quite as classy as she appeared up until that point, the forth at Hastings was in a similar race to this, particularly after you remove Antonio Lombardo from the equation.She is worth another look.
(2) Duckworth Lewis - In my first draft of this I had a typo and typed the name of this horse as Suckworth Lewis. That is generally how I feel about him up until this point in his career. However his last start run was better than I remembered after taking another look at it, he battled on well on the inside. Hayden Tinsley has a the ability to win this type of race on this type of horse. He might be an interesting place bet today.
(4) Jetset Man - Really don't know enough to make an informed comment. Could definitely see him sneaking into the mix here. Admittedly Distil and Duckworth Lewis are long shots, but they just look like they could be chances in this race.
Melbourne
This post was supposed to focus on New Zealand, but Saturday in Melbourne is just too excellent to pass up. I have written about my Cox Plate thoughts, and really not much has changed. Descarado is out, my pick Kings Rose has shortened to $12, Rekindled Interest has been the big market mover crunching into $6.50 based on a track gallop with Jimmy Choux, but John Bary isn't concerned. I still think the big worry is Glass Harmonium, mainly because I don't like the record of mares in this race. Efficient still appeals as an outsider at $18.
Other things to look forward to on the day include Black Caviar, this mare is outstanding and has reduced the number of runners in this race to five because of how unbeatable she is. At this stage Sepoy appears the most likely to challenge in the Patinack Farm Classic during Melbourne cup week. It is also interesting that on Cox Plate day they seem to be promoting Black Caviar as the main draw card, that is how amazing this horse is.
Manawanui gets another Derby tune up in a small field. He is at short odds and given his impressive Guineas run it is not surprising. I still like the match up with Sangster in the Derby, it is unfortunate for James McDonald that he will not get a chance to ride him in the Derby, it looked like he went a bit early with his run last start, but given his position on the track I think he had to go for it, he had got to the lead and it certainly looked like he had a lot to offer when he shot clear. He will probably be fitter for the run and nicely placed on Derby Saturday.
The Drake International Cup is looking interesting, there is a couple of Kiwis (Harris Tweed, and Booming), taking on Melbourne Cup contenders in Linton, Tullamore, Illo, Anudjawon, and defending champion Americain. Should be a good build up less than ten days out from the Melbourne Cup.
I wouldn't say He's Remarkable looked remarkable last start, but he was pretty impressive. 1600m is clearly ideal and 52.5kgs feels like a gift, but this is a big step up. He didn't really fire in the autumn in Sydney, so will this trip to Aussie be more suitable? certainly he is in the form of his short career to date. Ginga Dude actually looks well placed in this, course and distance winner in a lower grade two starts back, he drops to 1600m which is a distance where he has had a lot of success. Outside of the Kiwi's Luen Yat Forever was strongly backed last time and finished third behind two very good horses in the Toorak, I liked the look of Triple Elegance before the Epsom, he has to be considered if you are happy to throw out that race. Testa My Patience has an outstanding overall record, will be taking a step up, but again the 53.5kg has to appeal. Dao Dao was another who looked like good value on the back of a pretty good Toorak run, his overall 1600m record is appealing.
Sunday
Canterbury
Looks to be good racing all day, the interesting one is clearly the 3YO feature with Burgundy and possibly Planet Rock. It is hard not to have Burgundy on top, if he is the Guineas favourite surely he is good enough to account for this field.
(3) Burgundy - Matthew Cameron must be looking forward to this ride after missing the last start of Burgundy. He might be the best person to ask about the Guineas favouritism on Monday after he rides Anabandana the next day. This is the biggest test for this horse to date, but based on everything we know so far it is hard to go against him.
(1) Shuka - Could stir things up in the race for second if Planet Rock is in this, he beat a handy field last start including the likes of Kasumi and Rock and Pop.
(10) Planet Rock - I actually rate his chances in Wellington more. The draw and Burgundy work against her here. However she has proved consistent and should at least figure.
(2) Dollario - Only winner of $43k from his 12 starts, he has been consistent racking up three wins, but has come 3rd five times. That $43k could have been higher with some luck. It looks pretty wet in Christchurch at the moment this could work in the favour of Dollario.
So many of these horses are still unknown, or were beaten last time by Shuka, so it is hard to see them beating the known quality this race had to offer.
Monday
Waikato
What better way to work off the post All Black victory hangover and enjoy your Labour day. Te Rapa offers the best line up for 3YO's this weekend. We all know the quality of Anabandana and Antonio Lombardo, so this should be an excellent battle. Artistic put herself in Thousand Guineas contention with her convincing win against the Colts at Ellerslie and Holy Moly won well the day day. It is hard not to pick these in the order of their ratings.
Anabandana - The track is currently Slow, she is yet to see a track worse than Good other than in a couple of trials. She will also not have Opie Bosson's services unless he is granted a concession to ride at slightly above the listed weight.
Antonio Lombardo - He looks to have improved from last season, the Hawkes Bay Guineas win was superb and easy. I think he has closed the gap on Anabandana from the Manawatu Sires Produce run, and the gap was not that big to begin with.
Artistic - I am still a little sure what to make of that run given the pre-start delays, which I asked a few questions about, but it was very eye catching. Will have to watch this one closely, she might get found out.
Holy Moly - Impressive win last start, a chance to prove that she is improving.
Is there anything else in this race who can compete with this top four? To me it looks like Chicharita and Full of Spirit might be the most likely, but it is hard to see them doing any better than third.
Saturday
Auckland
The ARC will shout everyone on course a drink if Jimmy Choux wins the Cox Plate. If that is not incentive enough the whether is looking fine and the racing damn fine starting with an interesting race for the 3YO's and an early season look at some 2YO's.
Race 3 is definitely an interesting one, it is a Rating 70 race over 2400m, but it features horses who may be better than that, Maythehorsebemagic used to carrying a lot of weight over the jumps and searching for its first win in 12 starts at Ellerslie, super consistent Zardetto will have the services of Opie Bosson who won last time he rode him, underrated Toby Cee probably needs this extra distance, but the one which stands out is D'Nood Lady who ran a good 4th in a tougher Rating 80 race in Auckland over this distance two starts back, has been consistent recently and the horse who won that race at Ellerslie went on to win a Listed level race its next start.
Race 4 is a 2400m Rating 80 race, but features many who have been racing in higher grades in consistent form and also features Black Fox having start number 120 and number 52 at Ellerslie. There is a lot of up and coming rating 80 talent on show in race six, definitely a few to keep an eye on as they raise through the grades. Race 7 features a lot of top talent with several runners displaying form on the course.
Wellington
Wellington offers excellent feature racing including the Wellington Guineas. The first race may feature the talented Planet Rock, but I suspect she is more likely to be spotted in the Guineas later that day, but it is an interesting field of the next level of 3YO's to open up the program.
Race 3 the Wellesley Boutique Hotel Stakes should be interesting, it is a Listed 2YO race which features several 2YO's who have already broken the maiden ranks. Still hard to know exactly what to expect, it looks like several of runners in this race to notch up a victory would be suited to slightly more distance. Killa Question is the sole runner with Heavy track form, although several others have form on Slow tracks. Will be a good early look at 2YO's likely to feature in a lot of the Group and Listed races for 2YO's as the summer progresses.
I am very interested to see if Baby Guinness can win its third in a row. It is a horse I like a lot, and a tasty shot (not the kind of horse related shot you might find at a wild foods festival). Another good win here and we could see her start to take on races like the Rich Hill Stud Thompson Handicap, which is the first feature race of the day. A great field, with a handful backing up from the either the Matamata Cup or other similar strong Taranaki, Hawkes Bay or Rotorua races. It is a strong betting race as punters have had a good chance to have a look at a lot of these runners in recent weeks. Here is how I see a few of the contenders.
My First Four
(2) Justanexcuse - Came home very well when second in a strong Matamata Cup field, only penalised a half kilo for this start. He had another strong third in a tough race in the Hawkes Bay prior to that where Twlight Savings was dominant. Has been very consistent recently and tends to get better with more racing, winning five out of seven victories from "8th up" onwards.He brings a great on course record and was a winner here in January. If the track remains heavy it will not worry Justanexcuse with three wins and four placings under those conditions.
(9) Guessing - Has almost not won for over a year. Mixed her form a bit recently, but the Taranaki Breeders Stakes run was very strong, and on the strength of that performance she must be included. She has a better draw today than her last four double digit draws. She drops in weight from her last three outings. This is a horse who won five in a row last year and has won forth up in the past.
(8) No Excuse Maggie - Will carry an extra 1.5kgs this week. John Bary cant do much wrong at the moment, this might be the start of a very big day for his stable. No Excuse Maggie is a very consistent miler who looked very good last start. She wont mind it wet under foot. She has been very consistent recently and looked very strong with her last start win.
(11) Lady Kipling -Group 1 Placed as a 3YO this mare has run in top company throughout her career with good success but without notching up a black type victory, today could be her day. She is in very good form, her last two victories have been convincing at lower grades. She typically has performed best early in her campaigns so 3rd up should suit her well. She will also only carry 53kg's and retain the services of top Jockey Lisa Allpress. Barrier draw might concern, but she typically runs slightly off the pace anyway so potentially she will find a nice place to sit.
Some others to look at
(4) Kaap Kruis - Probably ready for the mile at the moment. The worry is the extra 1.5kg's from the 5th to Twlight savings two starts back in Hastings. Another with very strong wet track form and success on the track. His best racing may have passed him by this prep, but an interesting runner who could grab a place.
(6) Ourforeignminister - Won or placed in his last four, including a win in a similar field last start.Has had over a month off and typically doesn't go that well in that state. Will also carry an extra 2.5kg's here, but he has won carrying around this weight in the past.
(7) Intransigent - A horse I have looked a lot in recent weeks. Had a good win last week at long odds.Dropping back to 1600m is a bit of a concern. He will carry an extra 1.5kgs, but he should get a good trip from barrier two. There is a lot to scare you away from him this week.
The other Wellington feature is the Guineas, it will be a good look at some of the contenders ahead of the Canterbury Group 1's next month. There are three races for 3YO's on this week which thins out some of the potential fields particularly if you look at the murders row assembled in Hamilton for Monday. A lot of interest will be focused on Burgundy on Sunday. This is a strong field but I see Planet Rock is nominated for both this and the race on Sunday in Christchurch, so I can only assume he will race in this.
The chances
(10) Planet Rock - Simply looks the one to beat here. Her narrow victory last start was over the impressive and highly rated Rock and Pop. She ran a good third in the Karaka Million last year, and has always been consistent throughout her short career. Not sure if she will start this or the Sunday race, but I like her chances here more.
(1) Distil - Didn't fire first up as a 3YO, but ran a 3rd and a 4th in Group 1's as a 2YO. He did run home in a race which was dominated by top 3YO Antonio Lombardo, 1500m should be suitable. Not enough known to know if he can get back to his best, I am looking towards those big race performances as a guide to his ability.
(9) Whoshe - I have gone off this filly since the run in Auckland for Third, she was maybe exposed that day as not quite as classy as she appeared up until that point, the forth at Hastings was in a similar race to this, particularly after you remove Antonio Lombardo from the equation.She is worth another look.
(2) Duckworth Lewis - In my first draft of this I had a typo and typed the name of this horse as Suckworth Lewis. That is generally how I feel about him up until this point in his career. However his last start run was better than I remembered after taking another look at it, he battled on well on the inside. Hayden Tinsley has a the ability to win this type of race on this type of horse. He might be an interesting place bet today.
(4) Jetset Man - Really don't know enough to make an informed comment. Could definitely see him sneaking into the mix here. Admittedly Distil and Duckworth Lewis are long shots, but they just look like they could be chances in this race.
Melbourne
This post was supposed to focus on New Zealand, but Saturday in Melbourne is just too excellent to pass up. I have written about my Cox Plate thoughts, and really not much has changed. Descarado is out, my pick Kings Rose has shortened to $12, Rekindled Interest has been the big market mover crunching into $6.50 based on a track gallop with Jimmy Choux, but John Bary isn't concerned. I still think the big worry is Glass Harmonium, mainly because I don't like the record of mares in this race. Efficient still appeals as an outsider at $18.
Other things to look forward to on the day include Black Caviar, this mare is outstanding and has reduced the number of runners in this race to five because of how unbeatable she is. At this stage Sepoy appears the most likely to challenge in the Patinack Farm Classic during Melbourne cup week. It is also interesting that on Cox Plate day they seem to be promoting Black Caviar as the main draw card, that is how amazing this horse is.
Manawanui gets another Derby tune up in a small field. He is at short odds and given his impressive Guineas run it is not surprising. I still like the match up with Sangster in the Derby, it is unfortunate for James McDonald that he will not get a chance to ride him in the Derby, it looked like he went a bit early with his run last start, but given his position on the track I think he had to go for it, he had got to the lead and it certainly looked like he had a lot to offer when he shot clear. He will probably be fitter for the run and nicely placed on Derby Saturday.
The Drake International Cup is looking interesting, there is a couple of Kiwis (Harris Tweed, and Booming), taking on Melbourne Cup contenders in Linton, Tullamore, Illo, Anudjawon, and defending champion Americain. Should be a good build up less than ten days out from the Melbourne Cup.
I wouldn't say He's Remarkable looked remarkable last start, but he was pretty impressive. 1600m is clearly ideal and 52.5kgs feels like a gift, but this is a big step up. He didn't really fire in the autumn in Sydney, so will this trip to Aussie be more suitable? certainly he is in the form of his short career to date. Ginga Dude actually looks well placed in this, course and distance winner in a lower grade two starts back, he drops to 1600m which is a distance where he has had a lot of success. Outside of the Kiwi's Luen Yat Forever was strongly backed last time and finished third behind two very good horses in the Toorak, I liked the look of Triple Elegance before the Epsom, he has to be considered if you are happy to throw out that race. Testa My Patience has an outstanding overall record, will be taking a step up, but again the 53.5kg has to appeal. Dao Dao was another who looked like good value on the back of a pretty good Toorak run, his overall 1600m record is appealing.
Sunday
Canterbury
Looks to be good racing all day, the interesting one is clearly the 3YO feature with Burgundy and possibly Planet Rock. It is hard not to have Burgundy on top, if he is the Guineas favourite surely he is good enough to account for this field.
(3) Burgundy - Matthew Cameron must be looking forward to this ride after missing the last start of Burgundy. He might be the best person to ask about the Guineas favouritism on Monday after he rides Anabandana the next day. This is the biggest test for this horse to date, but based on everything we know so far it is hard to go against him.
(1) Shuka - Could stir things up in the race for second if Planet Rock is in this, he beat a handy field last start including the likes of Kasumi and Rock and Pop.
(10) Planet Rock - I actually rate his chances in Wellington more. The draw and Burgundy work against her here. However she has proved consistent and should at least figure.
(2) Dollario - Only winner of $43k from his 12 starts, he has been consistent racking up three wins, but has come 3rd five times. That $43k could have been higher with some luck. It looks pretty wet in Christchurch at the moment this could work in the favour of Dollario.
So many of these horses are still unknown, or were beaten last time by Shuka, so it is hard to see them beating the known quality this race had to offer.
Monday
Waikato
What better way to work off the post All Black victory hangover and enjoy your Labour day. Te Rapa offers the best line up for 3YO's this weekend. We all know the quality of Anabandana and Antonio Lombardo, so this should be an excellent battle. Artistic put herself in Thousand Guineas contention with her convincing win against the Colts at Ellerslie and Holy Moly won well the day day. It is hard not to pick these in the order of their ratings.
Anabandana - The track is currently Slow, she is yet to see a track worse than Good other than in a couple of trials. She will also not have Opie Bosson's services unless he is granted a concession to ride at slightly above the listed weight.
Antonio Lombardo - He looks to have improved from last season, the Hawkes Bay Guineas win was superb and easy. I think he has closed the gap on Anabandana from the Manawatu Sires Produce run, and the gap was not that big to begin with.
Artistic - I am still a little sure what to make of that run given the pre-start delays, which I asked a few questions about, but it was very eye catching. Will have to watch this one closely, she might get found out.
Holy Moly - Impressive win last start, a chance to prove that she is improving.
Is there anything else in this race who can compete with this top four? To me it looks like Chicharita and Full of Spirit might be the most likely, but it is hard to see them doing any better than third.
Tuesday 18 October 2011
Cox Plate Preview
A couple of comments on the Caulfield Cup first, if you just want the preview skip down to the bold heading, Cox Plate Preview, scroll a bit further for my attempt to make a case for and against each runner, predictions are at the bottom.
I didn't complete my Caulfield Cup preview last week, I started it, tried to take an angle which didn't completely work, made a prediction, re-read it and decided to tweet my prediction rather than post a nonsensical argument. My tweet read "If anyone upsets December Draw today, the two I keep looking at are Hawk Island and Southern Speed". So as it turns out Hawk Island was not really in contention, however I did mention in the unposted preview how I liked Southern Speed's draw, thought it might lead or be handy as she was in the Underwood, and he had proved she could come home well in the Turnbull.
In the preview I talked about a few historic factors, basically saying
"I went looking for some Caulfield Cup stats, I know history doesn't necessarily influence what will happen on the weekend, but it is always interesting to have a look and see how statistics line up. I assumed the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup Double was more common, I certainly think that if December Draw wins on the weekend the $12 you can get today in the Melbourne Cup will be a bargain, however it is not as common as I thought. It has been completed eleven times. I guess my impression came from the four horses who achieved this between 1991 and 2001, Lets Elope (1991), Doriemus (1994), Might and Power (1994), Ethereal (2001), but it has not happened since (are we due?). Of course other horses have won in different years such as Viewed. Also if you look back at the last twelve cups, eight of the winners have been aged four, there are only five 4YO's remaining in the twenty-two remaining horses.
Here are the last five Caulfield Cup Winners and their closing price at the New Zealand TAB. Not a lot of favourites. Their finishing position in the Melbourne Cup of the same year is in brackets.
2010 Descarado $17.40 (23rd)
2009 Viewed $12.40 (7th) 2008 (1st)
2008 All the Good $47.70 (N/A)
2007 Master O'Reily $5.20 (8th) 2008 (4th) 2009 (4th) 2010 (15th)
2006 Tawqeet $20.65 (19th) 2007 (16th)
Interestingly enough their Melbourne Cup finish actually improved the year after their Caulfield Cup victory, it would be hard for Descarado not to improve, considering finishing would be an improvement, but the $21 on offer at the moment for a horse who looks to be back in form is certainly not bad. In regard to odds, there are currently seven horses in the $12 - $25 range which looks like a sweet spot in recent years, two of those seven are 4YO's, Absolutely and Southern Speed, Absolutely will do it tough from the outside barrier, but Southern Speed looks well placed in this."
Southern Speed finished up paying better than that $12 - $25 range, but at the time she was right in the sweet spot. She ran a near perfect race from the barrier and just had too much in the end. December Draw was not a factor, and as it turns out suffered an injury. I noticed as they rounded the turn he was not in a great position, Michael Rodd used his whip once and then appeared to look down, then basically pull him up. Just wondering if he heard something, I am sure he would have felt that there was something wrong. I am not a vet, but I am sure pushing a horse on an injured leg could have been very dangerous for the health of the horse, so it was excellent awareness and precaution taken by Michael Rodd at that point in a big race.
Cox Plate Preview
On paper the Cox Plate looks significantly more competitive than the Caulfield Cup looked (on paper at least), when the first two favorites finish last and second last a race becomes a lot more competitive. However is there something to be learned from looking back at Cox Plate history.
Since the year 2000 there have been two 3YO winners, one 4YO winner, two 5YO winners, four winners at age six, one at seven, and one at nine. The lone winner as a 4YO was last year with So You Think, who also won at age three. One of the included 5YO winners was Sunline collecting her second consecutive Cox Plate, the next winner at age five was Northerly who went on to win at age six. Looking back further the race appears to have been won most commonly by 4YO's.
Favourites have had a pretty good record in the Cox Plate they win 41% of the time. Since the year 2000, Sunline, Northerly, Makybe Diva and So You Think have won as favourite.
Makybe Diva was the last mare to win the race, the last one prior to that was Sunline. This has not typically been a race which is won by mares.
Six horses have won the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup in the same year.
This year there are four mares in this field (both the emergencies are mares). There is one 8YO, one 7YO, one 6YO, one 5YO, nine 4YO's, and one 3YO (the emergencies are six and four years old). Are we due for a mare to win this race? only two 4YO's in the last eleven years, are we due for another 4YO victory? there are four 4YO mares in this race.
Lets have a look at what the winners have paid over the past eleven races.
The most recent winners have paid (as per NZ TAB)
2010 So You Think - $1.60 (Favourite)
2009 So You Think - $9.50
2008 Maldivian - $10.10
2007 El Segundo -$5.90
2006 Fields of Omagh - $28.25
2005 Makybe Diva - $2.50 (Favourite)
2004 Savabeel - $12.05
2003 Fields of Omagh $15.20
2002 Northerly $4.10 (Favourite)
2001 Northerly $3.70
2000 Sunlline $2.05 (Favourite)
So while favourites have not always won the Cox Plate, it is rare that a real blow-out winner has come through for victory. I think the difference is the Weight for Age conditions, all the horses are well known and proven performers. So You Think in 2009 was a bit of an unknown, we all know how good he is now, this year the lone 3YO is Helmet, it feels like we have a greater understanding of Helmet than we did of So You Think two years ago. Either way favourites have been 4-11 for the last 11 races. The lead up favourite has been the 4YO Jimmy Choux. The favourite has not won in back to back years since 1990 (which topped off a five year run of favourites winning starting with Bonecrusher in 1986). Funnily enough 5/12 is 41.67% which is close to the overall record of favouries in this race, so it is a good sign if Jimmy Choux remains favourite.
Track position is clearly important at Moonee Valley, there is only a couple of hundred meters until the bend, and typically it is good to be handy with the short finishing straight. I was wondering where winners have typically drawn in this race, the last ten (after significant searching I was not able to find Sunline's winning draw in 2000, I did however find this video, amazing!) winning barriers are 2010 - 5, 2009 -7, 2008 - 6, 2007 - 7, 2006 - 7, 2005 - 4, 2004 - 6, 2003 - 6, 2002 - 5, 2001 -3. Barrier seven (Wall Street) and six (Sincero) have proved the lucky barriers over the past ten years, however I suspect some of these winning horses would have been too good regardless of the barrier.
Runner by Runner Cases
In such a quality field you can often make a case for multiple starters, here is the case for why each horse could win, and why each horse might lose this years Cox Plate.
Efficient (5) 59kg
The case for:
Winner of three Group 1 races including a Victoria Derby and a Melbourne Cup.
Won seven races in total, other than 3YO campaign when he won five in a row he has not been in particularly good form leading into victories, 10th, 4th, 11th, 9th before winning the 2007 Melbourne Cup, and 5th and 9th before winning the 2009 Turnbull. This is his third start after a lay-off of around two years.
The owner rates his chances.
The case against:
He has not looked in the greatest form from his two starts back. He will carry even more weight than his 8th in a twelve horse Turnbull field. However the losing margin was only five lengths, it was an improvement on his first run back in the Underwood.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Descardo (9) 59kg
The case for:
He won the Caulfield Stakes last start, leading all the way and taking off around the bend and holding on for Victory.
Looks to be improving and returning to his 2010 form.
Strong second up record.
He will probably have to go forward from barrier nine (was barrier eight and went forward in the Cualfield Stakes) so he could be well placed coming into the final straight.
The case against:
He is carrying an injury, he will be vetted on Friday before the race.
He might not have held on another 40m last week.
A lot of horses will be moving forward to try to be handy, could be tough to get to where he wants to be, and there is a possibility for contact in the early stages he probably wont get the easy start he got last start.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Wall Street (7) 59kg
The case for:
Winner of four Group 1's including one in Melbourne last year.
Won his second start in Melbourne last year after running in the Cox Plate.
Not far off Jimmy Choux two starts back, not far off Kings Rose in a better run in the Toorak.
Winner over 2040m in the past, it looks like he is ready to step up to that distance.
Lucky barrier seven.
The case against:
This is the toughest field he has faced this preparation.
Still more of a 1600m horse rather than 2000m.
With all the speed coming from inside and outside him he may have to try to win this from a bit far back. His best chance will be to settle on the rail and hopefully get an easy run and be in a space to attack. He might try to go forward, but could find himself two or three wide and a bit far back.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
No
Glass Harmonium (4) 59kg
The case for:
Well drawn, can go forward or potentially trail a horse pushing forward from a wide barrier.
Top recent form, close up all three starts, very close second last start to December Draw over 2000m. Looked excellent that start, flying home and comfortably beating the rest of a strong field.
Beat Playing God, Southern Speed (not in this, but won the Caulfield Cup last weekend), Shamrocker and Efficient last start. Beat Playing God, Efficient, Shamrocker (lost to Lion Tamer, Southern Speed) under WFA two starts back.
Most comfortable over 2000m, very rarely completely fails, always seems to go a strong race and put himself in contention.
The case against:
Most suited to handicap conditions.
Not yet a Group 1 winner.
This is the strongest field he has faced this prep, others are more suited to the weight they will have to carry in this race.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Jimmy Choux (10) 57.5kg
The case for:
Winner at 2040m last start at Group 1 level. Won without Jonathan Riddell even having to use the whip. He was back in a bad position on the corner and manage to find a hole through the field for victory.
He will likely have speed either side of him, best case might be to follow them forward and settle two wide in 3rd or forth.
Winner of two Group 1's as a 4YO, winner of three Group 1's at age 3 including one in Australia over 2000m.
Favourites have a good record in the Cox Plate.
4YO's have a good overall record in the Cox Plate (not recently).
The case against:
The wide barrier draw will be difficult to overcome. He will want to be handy towards the last bend and that may require racing wide for a significant portion of the race. If he goes back from the wide draw I don't think he can win this race.
This is much harder than anything he has faced, the winning Group 1 race in Australia was against 3YO's this is a much tougher and more proven field.
I really like Jimmy Choux, I want him to win, it has impaired my judgement and I might be overrating him.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Sincero (6) 57.5kg
The case for:
Eleven wins from seventeen starts.
Winner of two Group 1 races.
Well drawn, should get a comfortable ride behind the speed.
Now familiar going left-handed. Will benefit from having a start over 2000m for the first time.
The case against:
Has not really lived up to the hype in Melbourne.
Most of the eleven victories have come against lower level company. One of the Group 1 victories was a handicap carrying less than 51kgs.
2000m might be a bit too far.
A lot of wide speed might see him back or trapped on the fence.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
No
Lion Tamer (16) 57.5kg
The case for:
Dual Melbourne Group 1 winner, including one at open WFA in the Underwood Stakes.
Looked to have more left at the end of the Underwood.
Was unlucky when he failed to fire in the Caulfield Stakes. He has mixed form in the past and can bounce back from less successful performances.
2nd in the AAMI Vase a year ago on this track over this distance.
The case against:
Maybe more focused on the Melbourne Cup and looking to peak a week from now.
Caulfield Stakes favourite he didn't seem to get itself in a good position to attack.
Has got back in both starts in Melbourne to date this spring, he managed to get off the rail and finish strongly in the Underwood, but got trapped and didn't have a lot of running in the Caulfield Stakes. Word is he will try to go forward from the outside barrier but there is a lot of speed inside him, so he might get caught wide or not get far enough forward.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Playing God (15) 57.5kg
The case for:
Has been in form, came home very well from a bad position in the Underwood, looked like he had more running in the Turnbull putting up a good third to both December Draw and Glass Harmonium, will meet Glass Harmonium at better weights this week.
Proved he can get out of trouble and finish strongly in the Underwood.
The case against:
Both wins at Group 1 level have not been against this quality of field.
Despite strong performances this spring he has not managed to win a race against this very strong company.
Barrier fifteen make his life very difficult, will almost certainly be back and wide.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes, but not likely from that draw
Rekindled Interest (3) 57.5kg
The case for:
Will get a sweet trip from barrier three. Could see him following Glass Harmonium and siting on the rail two or three back.
Might be the first ever Twitter favourite, my Twitter feed was buzzing after his performance at Breakfast with the Best against Jimmy Choux.
He had a good win in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes over a month ago, that race included pretty good form with a good Alcopop performance and Whobegotyou, who was favourite for the Cox Plate at the time.
Winner of last years AAMI Vase on the course and over the distance.
Three starts at Moonee Valley for two wins and a forth.
The case against:
Was fifth in the Turnbull last start, although he came home OK he was still two lengths behind Playing God, he carried 55.5kgs that day, that is the same as Glass Harmonium (who will carry 1.5kg more in this) and 1kg less than Playing God. Possibly would have wanted a better performance there if we are to expect a better performance here.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Shamrocker (1) 55.5kg
The case for:
Has had excuses over the past two starts.
Won and placed in multiple Group 1's as a 3YO, including beating Jimmy Choux.
Should get a good trip from barrier one and at least be in a position to launch towards the finish.
The case against:
Bad luck can sometimes provide an excuse when it is just bad form.She was miles away in the Underwood, and not really close in the Turnbull. She has faced a lot of the contenders in this race already this season without much chance to show she is better. She has the class, but has not shown it this year.
Barrier one may leave her too far back to really compete at the end with all the early speed, she will need to jump well.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
No
Pinker Pinker (12) 55.5kg.
The case for:
Ran a couple of strong races for second following on from her last win at Group 2 level. She has always been consistent as a 3YO, she has won $665k (AUD), but that could very easily be more with some luck with strong performances at Group level. She has built up over distance this year similar to when she was able to produce a strong staying performance in the AJC Oaks.
The case against:
Managed to go four races this spring without really encountering any of the main contenders for any of the major spring races, she beat Avienus and Southen Speed in August and again in the Stocks, beat Sincero in the Epsom. Winning the Lets Elope was not against the strongest field. She ran second to Kings Rose by a close margin, that was possibly the best guide to how she might go here. Barrier twelve is definitely not ideal given how this race may go and she possibly does not have the firepower against this field. If you like Sincero in this then you probably like Pinker Pinker too.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
No
Secret Admirer (8) 55.5kg
The case for:
Won the Epsom and has been close up in three other races this preparation. She has been super consistent from her eight starts with three wins, and four other placings, the other race was a fourth in a Group 2 race. Really flew home over 1600m to win the Epsom, was still way back with 400m to go, so should be able to deal with 2000m.
The case against:
Won the Epsom carrying only 52kgs, WFA conditions are not ideal.
Seems to like to get back in races, or at least stay a bit off the speed, that may make this a challenge.
2000m is a new experience, hard to know how she will go for sure.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
No
Kings Rose (2) 55.5kg
The case for:
Well drawn for a good trip, should not have to run any more than the listed distance, has the ability to be on the pace and has a great turn of foot to attack the finish.
Won twice impressively at Group 2 level under WFA conditions in Melbourne. A good second in the Toorak where she really had to get out of the pack and came home very strongly.
Twice a winner at Group 2 level in New Zealand over the 2000m, so the step up in distance should not be the issue.
The case against:
The wins have been by small margins, they have not been at Group 1 level, this is definitely tougher. One of the wins was not completely open as it was against other mares.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
Yes
Helmet (11) 49.5kg
The case for:
3YO's are so tempting at 49.5kgs under these WFA conditions. 3YO's this good are even more tempting. Helmet put in one of those rare memorable performances in the Caulfield Guineas which we may look back at fondly in the future. He sprinted to the lead and left them, set a pace and basically said that if anyone was going to beat him they would have to give their all and do it right from the start. He was challenged towards the finish by the only other horse who took up his challenge Manawanui, he fought hard to victory.
I could see the same tactics applying here, if he runs that hard out of the gates this will set up a furious pace in this race. He has speed inside him with Descarado likely to try and get forward, and speed outside with Lion Tamer, but he should be able to get across and hit that first bend first if he gets out like he did last start.
Six wins from nine starts with three thirds is pretty consistent.
The case against:
Maybe he doesn't comfortably make the lead, there are possibly a few horses are vying for it, maybe everyone from eight out knows they need to get forward and stay handy, maybe he gets caught three wide around the first bend and increases the distance he has to travel.
2000m is a concern, he has not traveled that far in a race yet, maybe the pace he sets is too hard to keep, he certainly seemed to wear down towards the end of that 1600m Caulfield Guineas.
We may get to find out who this horse really is this weekend.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
I am going to assume neither of the emergencies will start, if they do I still don't really see either of them winning.
Predictions
Top five winning chances
Kings Rose ($16)
Glass Harmonium ($14)
Jimmy Choux ($3)
Rekindled Interest ($10) - maybe I brought into the trackwork hype too much
Efficient ($18)
Top 3 who will make me feel stupid if they win
Helmet ($3.8)- after everything I just wrote
Pinker Pinker ($31)
Sincero ($21)
Top 3 who could make it into my top 5 by start time (check my Twitter on the day)
Helmet ($3.8) - that 49.5kg is so tempting
Descardo ($18) - If he gets the vet's complete OK on Friday
Lion Tamer ($13) - the barrier is just scaring me
Top 3 Value bets
Efficient ($18) - might even get more on the day
Kings Rose ($16)
Glass Harmonium ($14)
Extreme Value bet (Longest shot I could see winning)
Playing God ($41) - might be good place value
Battle for last
Either of the emergencies
Secret Admirer
Wall Street
Shamrocker
I didn't complete my Caulfield Cup preview last week, I started it, tried to take an angle which didn't completely work, made a prediction, re-read it and decided to tweet my prediction rather than post a nonsensical argument. My tweet read "If anyone upsets December Draw today, the two I keep looking at are Hawk Island and Southern Speed". So as it turns out Hawk Island was not really in contention, however I did mention in the unposted preview how I liked Southern Speed's draw, thought it might lead or be handy as she was in the Underwood, and he had proved she could come home well in the Turnbull.
In the preview I talked about a few historic factors, basically saying
"I went looking for some Caulfield Cup stats, I know history doesn't necessarily influence what will happen on the weekend, but it is always interesting to have a look and see how statistics line up. I assumed the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup Double was more common, I certainly think that if December Draw wins on the weekend the $12 you can get today in the Melbourne Cup will be a bargain, however it is not as common as I thought. It has been completed eleven times. I guess my impression came from the four horses who achieved this between 1991 and 2001, Lets Elope (1991), Doriemus (1994), Might and Power (1994), Ethereal (2001), but it has not happened since (are we due?). Of course other horses have won in different years such as Viewed. Also if you look back at the last twelve cups, eight of the winners have been aged four, there are only five 4YO's remaining in the twenty-two remaining horses.
Here are the last five Caulfield Cup Winners and their closing price at the New Zealand TAB. Not a lot of favourites. Their finishing position in the Melbourne Cup of the same year is in brackets.
2010 Descarado $17.40 (23rd)
2009 Viewed $12.40 (7th) 2008 (1st)
2008 All the Good $47.70 (N/A)
2007 Master O'Reily $5.20 (8th) 2008 (4th) 2009 (4th) 2010 (15th)
2006 Tawqeet $20.65 (19th) 2007 (16th)
Interestingly enough their Melbourne Cup finish actually improved the year after their Caulfield Cup victory, it would be hard for Descarado not to improve, considering finishing would be an improvement, but the $21 on offer at the moment for a horse who looks to be back in form is certainly not bad. In regard to odds, there are currently seven horses in the $12 - $25 range which looks like a sweet spot in recent years, two of those seven are 4YO's, Absolutely and Southern Speed, Absolutely will do it tough from the outside barrier, but Southern Speed looks well placed in this."
Southern Speed finished up paying better than that $12 - $25 range, but at the time she was right in the sweet spot. She ran a near perfect race from the barrier and just had too much in the end. December Draw was not a factor, and as it turns out suffered an injury. I noticed as they rounded the turn he was not in a great position, Michael Rodd used his whip once and then appeared to look down, then basically pull him up. Just wondering if he heard something, I am sure he would have felt that there was something wrong. I am not a vet, but I am sure pushing a horse on an injured leg could have been very dangerous for the health of the horse, so it was excellent awareness and precaution taken by Michael Rodd at that point in a big race.
Cox Plate Preview
On paper the Cox Plate looks significantly more competitive than the Caulfield Cup looked (on paper at least), when the first two favorites finish last and second last a race becomes a lot more competitive. However is there something to be learned from looking back at Cox Plate history.
Since the year 2000 there have been two 3YO winners, one 4YO winner, two 5YO winners, four winners at age six, one at seven, and one at nine. The lone winner as a 4YO was last year with So You Think, who also won at age three. One of the included 5YO winners was Sunline collecting her second consecutive Cox Plate, the next winner at age five was Northerly who went on to win at age six. Looking back further the race appears to have been won most commonly by 4YO's.
Favourites have had a pretty good record in the Cox Plate they win 41% of the time. Since the year 2000, Sunline, Northerly, Makybe Diva and So You Think have won as favourite.
Makybe Diva was the last mare to win the race, the last one prior to that was Sunline. This has not typically been a race which is won by mares.
Six horses have won the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup in the same year.
This year there are four mares in this field (both the emergencies are mares). There is one 8YO, one 7YO, one 6YO, one 5YO, nine 4YO's, and one 3YO (the emergencies are six and four years old). Are we due for a mare to win this race? only two 4YO's in the last eleven years, are we due for another 4YO victory? there are four 4YO mares in this race.
Lets have a look at what the winners have paid over the past eleven races.
The most recent winners have paid (as per NZ TAB)
2010 So You Think - $1.60 (Favourite)
2009 So You Think - $9.50
2008 Maldivian - $10.10
2007 El Segundo -$5.90
2006 Fields of Omagh - $28.25
2005 Makybe Diva - $2.50 (Favourite)
2004 Savabeel - $12.05
2003 Fields of Omagh $15.20
2002 Northerly $4.10 (Favourite)
2001 Northerly $3.70
2000 Sunlline $2.05 (Favourite)
So while favourites have not always won the Cox Plate, it is rare that a real blow-out winner has come through for victory. I think the difference is the Weight for Age conditions, all the horses are well known and proven performers. So You Think in 2009 was a bit of an unknown, we all know how good he is now, this year the lone 3YO is Helmet, it feels like we have a greater understanding of Helmet than we did of So You Think two years ago. Either way favourites have been 4-11 for the last 11 races. The lead up favourite has been the 4YO Jimmy Choux. The favourite has not won in back to back years since 1990 (which topped off a five year run of favourites winning starting with Bonecrusher in 1986). Funnily enough 5/12 is 41.67% which is close to the overall record of favouries in this race, so it is a good sign if Jimmy Choux remains favourite.
Track position is clearly important at Moonee Valley, there is only a couple of hundred meters until the bend, and typically it is good to be handy with the short finishing straight. I was wondering where winners have typically drawn in this race, the last ten (after significant searching I was not able to find Sunline's winning draw in 2000, I did however find this video, amazing!) winning barriers are 2010 - 5, 2009 -7, 2008 - 6, 2007 - 7, 2006 - 7, 2005 - 4, 2004 - 6, 2003 - 6, 2002 - 5, 2001 -3. Barrier seven (Wall Street) and six (Sincero) have proved the lucky barriers over the past ten years, however I suspect some of these winning horses would have been too good regardless of the barrier.
Runner by Runner Cases
In such a quality field you can often make a case for multiple starters, here is the case for why each horse could win, and why each horse might lose this years Cox Plate.
Efficient (5) 59kg
The case for:
Winner of three Group 1 races including a Victoria Derby and a Melbourne Cup.
Won seven races in total, other than 3YO campaign when he won five in a row he has not been in particularly good form leading into victories, 10th, 4th, 11th, 9th before winning the 2007 Melbourne Cup, and 5th and 9th before winning the 2009 Turnbull. This is his third start after a lay-off of around two years.
The owner rates his chances.
The case against:
He has not looked in the greatest form from his two starts back. He will carry even more weight than his 8th in a twelve horse Turnbull field. However the losing margin was only five lengths, it was an improvement on his first run back in the Underwood.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Descardo (9) 59kg
The case for:
He won the Caulfield Stakes last start, leading all the way and taking off around the bend and holding on for Victory.
Looks to be improving and returning to his 2010 form.
Strong second up record.
He will probably have to go forward from barrier nine (was barrier eight and went forward in the Cualfield Stakes) so he could be well placed coming into the final straight.
The case against:
He is carrying an injury, he will be vetted on Friday before the race.
He might not have held on another 40m last week.
A lot of horses will be moving forward to try to be handy, could be tough to get to where he wants to be, and there is a possibility for contact in the early stages he probably wont get the easy start he got last start.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Wall Street (7) 59kg
The case for:
Winner of four Group 1's including one in Melbourne last year.
Won his second start in Melbourne last year after running in the Cox Plate.
Not far off Jimmy Choux two starts back, not far off Kings Rose in a better run in the Toorak.
Winner over 2040m in the past, it looks like he is ready to step up to that distance.
Lucky barrier seven.
The case against:
This is the toughest field he has faced this preparation.
Still more of a 1600m horse rather than 2000m.
With all the speed coming from inside and outside him he may have to try to win this from a bit far back. His best chance will be to settle on the rail and hopefully get an easy run and be in a space to attack. He might try to go forward, but could find himself two or three wide and a bit far back.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
No
Glass Harmonium (4) 59kg
The case for:
Well drawn, can go forward or potentially trail a horse pushing forward from a wide barrier.
Top recent form, close up all three starts, very close second last start to December Draw over 2000m. Looked excellent that start, flying home and comfortably beating the rest of a strong field.
Beat Playing God, Southern Speed (not in this, but won the Caulfield Cup last weekend), Shamrocker and Efficient last start. Beat Playing God, Efficient, Shamrocker (lost to Lion Tamer, Southern Speed) under WFA two starts back.
Most comfortable over 2000m, very rarely completely fails, always seems to go a strong race and put himself in contention.
The case against:
Most suited to handicap conditions.
Not yet a Group 1 winner.
This is the strongest field he has faced this prep, others are more suited to the weight they will have to carry in this race.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Jimmy Choux (10) 57.5kg
The case for:
Winner at 2040m last start at Group 1 level. Won without Jonathan Riddell even having to use the whip. He was back in a bad position on the corner and manage to find a hole through the field for victory.
He will likely have speed either side of him, best case might be to follow them forward and settle two wide in 3rd or forth.
Winner of two Group 1's as a 4YO, winner of three Group 1's at age 3 including one in Australia over 2000m.
Favourites have a good record in the Cox Plate.
4YO's have a good overall record in the Cox Plate (not recently).
The case against:
The wide barrier draw will be difficult to overcome. He will want to be handy towards the last bend and that may require racing wide for a significant portion of the race. If he goes back from the wide draw I don't think he can win this race.
This is much harder than anything he has faced, the winning Group 1 race in Australia was against 3YO's this is a much tougher and more proven field.
I really like Jimmy Choux, I want him to win, it has impaired my judgement and I might be overrating him.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Sincero (6) 57.5kg
The case for:
Eleven wins from seventeen starts.
Winner of two Group 1 races.
Well drawn, should get a comfortable ride behind the speed.
Now familiar going left-handed. Will benefit from having a start over 2000m for the first time.
The case against:
Has not really lived up to the hype in Melbourne.
Most of the eleven victories have come against lower level company. One of the Group 1 victories was a handicap carrying less than 51kgs.
2000m might be a bit too far.
A lot of wide speed might see him back or trapped on the fence.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
No
Lion Tamer (16) 57.5kg
The case for:
Dual Melbourne Group 1 winner, including one at open WFA in the Underwood Stakes.
Looked to have more left at the end of the Underwood.
Was unlucky when he failed to fire in the Caulfield Stakes. He has mixed form in the past and can bounce back from less successful performances.
2nd in the AAMI Vase a year ago on this track over this distance.
The case against:
Maybe more focused on the Melbourne Cup and looking to peak a week from now.
Caulfield Stakes favourite he didn't seem to get itself in a good position to attack.
Has got back in both starts in Melbourne to date this spring, he managed to get off the rail and finish strongly in the Underwood, but got trapped and didn't have a lot of running in the Caulfield Stakes. Word is he will try to go forward from the outside barrier but there is a lot of speed inside him, so he might get caught wide or not get far enough forward.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Playing God (15) 57.5kg
The case for:
Has been in form, came home very well from a bad position in the Underwood, looked like he had more running in the Turnbull putting up a good third to both December Draw and Glass Harmonium, will meet Glass Harmonium at better weights this week.
Proved he can get out of trouble and finish strongly in the Underwood.
The case against:
Both wins at Group 1 level have not been against this quality of field.
Despite strong performances this spring he has not managed to win a race against this very strong company.
Barrier fifteen make his life very difficult, will almost certainly be back and wide.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes, but not likely from that draw
Rekindled Interest (3) 57.5kg
The case for:
Will get a sweet trip from barrier three. Could see him following Glass Harmonium and siting on the rail two or three back.
Might be the first ever Twitter favourite, my Twitter feed was buzzing after his performance at Breakfast with the Best against Jimmy Choux.
He had a good win in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes over a month ago, that race included pretty good form with a good Alcopop performance and Whobegotyou, who was favourite for the Cox Plate at the time.
Winner of last years AAMI Vase on the course and over the distance.
Three starts at Moonee Valley for two wins and a forth.
The case against:
Was fifth in the Turnbull last start, although he came home OK he was still two lengths behind Playing God, he carried 55.5kgs that day, that is the same as Glass Harmonium (who will carry 1.5kg more in this) and 1kg less than Playing God. Possibly would have wanted a better performance there if we are to expect a better performance here.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Shamrocker (1) 55.5kg
The case for:
Has had excuses over the past two starts.
Won and placed in multiple Group 1's as a 3YO, including beating Jimmy Choux.
Should get a good trip from barrier one and at least be in a position to launch towards the finish.
The case against:
Bad luck can sometimes provide an excuse when it is just bad form.She was miles away in the Underwood, and not really close in the Turnbull. She has faced a lot of the contenders in this race already this season without much chance to show she is better. She has the class, but has not shown it this year.
Barrier one may leave her too far back to really compete at the end with all the early speed, she will need to jump well.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
No
Pinker Pinker (12) 55.5kg.
The case for:
Ran a couple of strong races for second following on from her last win at Group 2 level. She has always been consistent as a 3YO, she has won $665k (AUD), but that could very easily be more with some luck with strong performances at Group level. She has built up over distance this year similar to when she was able to produce a strong staying performance in the AJC Oaks.
The case against:
Managed to go four races this spring without really encountering any of the main contenders for any of the major spring races, she beat Avienus and Southen Speed in August and again in the Stocks, beat Sincero in the Epsom. Winning the Lets Elope was not against the strongest field. She ran second to Kings Rose by a close margin, that was possibly the best guide to how she might go here. Barrier twelve is definitely not ideal given how this race may go and she possibly does not have the firepower against this field. If you like Sincero in this then you probably like Pinker Pinker too.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
No
Secret Admirer (8) 55.5kg
The case for:
Won the Epsom and has been close up in three other races this preparation. She has been super consistent from her eight starts with three wins, and four other placings, the other race was a fourth in a Group 2 race. Really flew home over 1600m to win the Epsom, was still way back with 400m to go, so should be able to deal with 2000m.
The case against:
Won the Epsom carrying only 52kgs, WFA conditions are not ideal.
Seems to like to get back in races, or at least stay a bit off the speed, that may make this a challenge.
2000m is a new experience, hard to know how she will go for sure.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
No
Kings Rose (2) 55.5kg
The case for:
Well drawn for a good trip, should not have to run any more than the listed distance, has the ability to be on the pace and has a great turn of foot to attack the finish.
Won twice impressively at Group 2 level under WFA conditions in Melbourne. A good second in the Toorak where she really had to get out of the pack and came home very strongly.
Twice a winner at Group 2 level in New Zealand over the 2000m, so the step up in distance should not be the issue.
The case against:
The wins have been by small margins, they have not been at Group 1 level, this is definitely tougher. One of the wins was not completely open as it was against other mares.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
Yes
Helmet (11) 49.5kg
The case for:
3YO's are so tempting at 49.5kgs under these WFA conditions. 3YO's this good are even more tempting. Helmet put in one of those rare memorable performances in the Caulfield Guineas which we may look back at fondly in the future. He sprinted to the lead and left them, set a pace and basically said that if anyone was going to beat him they would have to give their all and do it right from the start. He was challenged towards the finish by the only other horse who took up his challenge Manawanui, he fought hard to victory.
I could see the same tactics applying here, if he runs that hard out of the gates this will set up a furious pace in this race. He has speed inside him with Descarado likely to try and get forward, and speed outside with Lion Tamer, but he should be able to get across and hit that first bend first if he gets out like he did last start.
Six wins from nine starts with three thirds is pretty consistent.
The case against:
Maybe he doesn't comfortably make the lead, there are possibly a few horses are vying for it, maybe everyone from eight out knows they need to get forward and stay handy, maybe he gets caught three wide around the first bend and increases the distance he has to travel.
2000m is a concern, he has not traveled that far in a race yet, maybe the pace he sets is too hard to keep, he certainly seemed to wear down towards the end of that 1600m Caulfield Guineas.
We may get to find out who this horse really is this weekend.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
I am going to assume neither of the emergencies will start, if they do I still don't really see either of them winning.
Predictions
Top five winning chances
Kings Rose ($16)
Glass Harmonium ($14)
Jimmy Choux ($3)
Rekindled Interest ($10) - maybe I brought into the trackwork hype too much
Efficient ($18)
Top 3 who will make me feel stupid if they win
Helmet ($3.8)- after everything I just wrote
Pinker Pinker ($31)
Sincero ($21)
Top 3 who could make it into my top 5 by start time (check my Twitter on the day)
Helmet ($3.8) - that 49.5kg is so tempting
Descardo ($18) - If he gets the vet's complete OK on Friday
Lion Tamer ($13) - the barrier is just scaring me
Top 3 Value bets
Efficient ($18) - might even get more on the day
Kings Rose ($16)
Glass Harmonium ($14)
Extreme Value bet (Longest shot I could see winning)
Playing God ($41) - might be good place value
Battle for last
Either of the emergencies
Secret Admirer
Wall Street
Shamrocker
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