Lets get the favourites out of the way first. I have been looking very hard at both (2) Americain ($7.50) and (1) Dunaden ($6.50) since the Caulfield Cup. I am not going to break much ground with this analysis but Dunaden was amazing in the Caulfield, he won here last year and probably has improved since then, he would have taken improvement from the Caulfield run and has to be in this. Americain was probably the next best Caulfield Cup run, he will meet Dunaden a kg better off at Flemington, he knows how to win this race and the extra half mile will suit. They are hard to split for me, while I can conceive a situation in which neither of these runners win, I find it hard to see a situation in which one or both of these runners doesn't place, and certainly cant see either finishing outside of the first handful across the line.
How would you bet this? there is just too much uncertainty in this race to grab $6 - $7.50ish, however if you like either then the roving banker option might be the way to go, take your preferred option and box with 5 or 6 others and hope something wide pushes up the trifecta pay out.
Who else do I like?
The next two favourites are (4) Red Cadeaux ($9) and (8) Mount Athos ($7). It is hard to fault either one. Red Cadeaux will meet Dunaden better off for weight this year; he only just lost last year. I am not sure he is better than Dunaden, but the 3.5kg difference is tempting. He will go a good race and not be far off them at the end. I am a bit concerned about the lack of obvious speed in the race, I think he might settle back from barrier 18, but that may put him in a position to keep an eye on Dunaden.
Mount Athos, is fresh today, that is a state in which he typically goes well. He is carrying 54kg today, two starts back he carried almost 10kg more than that to win. He is well drawn and will stay well. My only concern would be about the step up to this level, this is much tougher than anything he has faced in the past.
It is hard not to include either of these in multiples, I actually like Red Cadeaux more, but I don't personally like either of these as much as the first two or some of the ones I will mention, but I can see their merits and the reason they are here to race.
Now to be more interesting
There were four others I really liked on recent performances, but I have ruled out (23) Zabeelionaire ($51) based on the draw, he will just have too much work to do, he has been steadily improving, looks like he will get the 3200m, and is only carrying 52kg's, but will possibly arrive too late to feature.
(17) My Quest for Peace ($18) - I liked him a lot heading into the Caulfield Cup, his performance there was pretty good. He is beautifully drawn, he should get a nice trailing run behind (13) Glencadam Gold ($41) and (6) Voila Ici ($101) (but because of the size of the field we might see some unusual faces pushing forward to find a position); I think it will pay to be handy in this race. He ran on well at Caulfield and he will be able to get the 3200m, he has won up to 2800m when he was carrying 62.5kg and is well placed here to go a good race.
(16) Mourayan ($21) - He first looked like a contender here 3 starts back in the Makybe Diva (she was a pretty good Melbourne Cup runner), his flying 4th was great. He then went to Sydney and ran on pretty well in the Hill Stakes and then won the Craven Plate. He will step up in distance today after a month off, he is up to 3200m for the first time, last year he won up to 2500m so he should get the trip. He has improved over this preparation and has won 4th up in the past. The 53.5kgs is also another tempting factor in play here.
(10) Ethiopia ($21) - He just seems to be getting better at the right time. The Cox Plate run was very good, and he came home very well in the Turnbull. He has only one once, but that was in the Australian Derby, that run was fourth up after a somewhat similar prep (except this prep as been tougher). Again he is well weighted and can add to her lone win today.
How hard is this race?
I am going to throw some more names at you, these are others which are very tempting to take, they possibly have their flaws, but certainly have to be considered.
(7) Cavalyman ($26) - Dropping in overnight in the odds. His last three races have all been between 3200 and 3300m. The step up in class is going to test, but he will only carry 54kg after carrying 60kg last start. He has been freshened since that, but has a history of coming back from spells over long distances and running well. I like him the most of these flawed contenders.
(24) Kelinni ($21) - The Lexus winner is always a consideration. He has had a solid preparation with a second at Group 1 level two starts back. He ran strongly for victory on the weekend and will drop to 51kg.
(20) Lights of Heaven ($16) - Possibly a little but forgotten, she ran a good Caulfield Cup. Will she stay 3200m? I like others more and $16 is possibly a little short, but could go well.
(14) Green Moon ($17) - It is possibly hard to take the Turnbull winner at 53.5kg, the Cox Plate favourite was not amazing in that race. He has won 5th up and has had a good preparation to date, it is just a case of liking others more.
(13) Glencadam Gold ($41) - Failed in the Caulfield Cup after a very strong lead up campaign.What went wrong? did he work to hard to lead? was the race too tough? He does seem to go better at the start of his preparations and drop off, maybe we have just reached that point. I can't have him, but he is not the worst.
(12) Galileo's Choice ($13) - Am I really going to pick a hurdler to win a Melbourne Cup? We know he will get the distance, we know he will easily carry the weight, he does go well after a spell and will come into play with rain. I don't know much, but will a hurdler have the turn of foot to sprint with them when it is time to go?
That is about half the field covered? Not sure where to place Red Cadeaux and Mount Athos in this mix, but other than them it is a rough prediction of where they should finish. I am very excited for this race as per usual. Enjoy the race.
Tuesday 6 November 2012
Friday 21 September 2012
Weekend Highlights
Technically I don't think these are highlights since they are yet to occur, but there is certainly a lot to look forward to on both sides of the Tasman this weekend.
The Aon Insurance Brokers Handicap in the Hawkes Bay will see a lot of top Sprinters make their return for the Spring and Summer., several of the returning runners including Ginner Hart, Aspinal, and Capone have solid first up records to consider. This race will also feature the return of notable 3YO's for their 4YO season, Ginner Hart, Pellegrini and Capital Diamond. You would think the drop back in distance should suit Fritzy Boy, but there are others at lower weights who look a big threat. The Hombre is Group 1 Placed over this distance, he opened as favorite, good conditions on his home track will make him hard to beat even at 58kgs. Baby Guinness looks a danger stepping back into Handicap conditions, she was consistently solid last season, and will enjoy the step back from Group 1 class.
1. Baby Guinness ($7.50)
2. Ginner Hart ($4.50)
3. The Hombre ($4.20)
4. Capital Diamond ($10)
The Gold Trial Stakes is always a good race, they have a top field assembled which should prove a good gauge on form of the filled heading to the guineas. Kate was a very impressive winner here on the first day, and the fact she is paying $8 at the moment is a good indication of the quality of this race. Roll out the Carpet, was relegated from a Group 1 victory as a 2YO, but her win in the Matamata Breeders stakes is still the most impressive victory of any runner in this race - in terms of stature of the race. Fix was very highly regarded on her return run, and this could be a good sign for the chances of A Touch of Ruby who was narrowly beaten in that race. Soriano was solid in both 2YO Group 1's, again she was not far off Fix first up this season. The well named Waterford (I see what you did there) was better than solid late in the 2YO season. Cassie May was consistent at age two, she is already having her third start at age three, this is tougher, but the step up to 1200m should be an assistance. Oasis Rose is back after a long lay off, she showed ability at age 2, but it is hard to know what to expect. Pure Elegance is the favourite, re-watching that start you can see why, I have not seen the trial, but It must have been very impressive. Coastal Express is another who is back for a second start since May. Meleka Bella is stepping up in grade as a recent winner.
1. Pure Elegance ($3.20)
2. Kate ($8)
3. Fix ($6)
4. Rollout the Carpet ($6.50)
The Stayer's come out in the PGG Wrightson Premier, they will be aiming for the third day and beyond to the New Zealand Cup. Carrick is the favourite at very short odds, it is hard to see why based on his last start, and he will carry a kg more, however more distance and better ground will help, but he is nearly impossible to have at $2.80. Back in Black was very impressive on the first day, 2000m will be more suited, but his form was very up and down last year and he will carry more here. Flemington will be looking for this extra distance, he will be also down in weight, but he probably needs a couple more starts before you see him as a winning chance. Herman Munster enjoys the track and distance and might be a bit of value in the wet, unfortunately it looks dry on Saturday. Pero looks a good chance on paper and on the recent victory, but he is probably slightly under good value here.
Rumour Has It Now has been very consistent and looks a very good light weight chance. Seaflyte has never done much in the Bay, but this feels like the kind of race he could win, the weight looks right, the distance should suit, the conditions will be favourable, and the competition is not the hardest, he was second in this race last year carrying 54kg on a good track paying $21 coming off a 10th first up... the winner of that race was Back'n'Black.
1. Seaflyte ($18)
2. Pero ($5)
3. Back'n'Black ($8)
4. Rumour Has It Now ($14)
A note on Carrick - Whenever I see odds of $2.80 after a race like Carrick had two weeks ago I start to suspect there is something that I don't know or don't see.It is possible that Carrick is simply the class in this race, certainly he will be more favoured in these conditions and over 2000m. Frankly, I thought he was a bit overrated last year, I was shocked with the 3rd in the Derby, he was generations behind Silent Achiever, and his two wins have been for $5k and $13k. I would not be shocked to be proved wrong here, but either way it is hard to bet on him at $2.80.
Onto the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate, all I have are questions. Can Mufhasa bounce back with the step up to 1600m? Will Justanexcuse regress to the norm? How will Green Supreme handle WFA conditions this time?Who is special days? Will Special Days have more luck returning to New Zealand than other runners in the past? Was it only track conditions that have hurt He's Remarkable in recent starts? Can Fears Nothing break the 2nd up duck when in form? Everything is lining up nicely for a strong Shez Sinsational performance, is 1600m too short? How much of Fleur de Lune's last start performance was bad luck? Is Guiseppina a sprinter or a miler? (Postman's Daughter) Where would Full of Spirit rate in this field? How much difference will 2kg and 400m make to Villifye? Is this Xanadu's race to lose? Will the dry surface hurt Innovation's chances?
1. Xanadu ($4.50) - Too eye catching last start to turn down
2. Guiseppina ($6) - 200m more last time would have seen her close
3. Mufhasa ($4) - Still capable of winning this
4. Fleur de Lune ($16) - has the Group 1 1600m record
A note on Mufhasa - I think he can win this, I have not picked him to do so. I have picked him for third, but I would be surprised to see him finish third. If he is at his best and still has the ability to win these races, then he will win on Saturday. If he is not, probably there are several others who may finish ahead of him, and he may find himself 6th or 7th. I think he still has it, so I have included him, but this will be a good indication.
A note on Shez Sinsational and He's Remarkable - Conditions, Conditions, WFA?. Too Short, Too Short, Conditions, Luck?. Those are valid excuses for the recent performances of He's Remarkable first and Shez Sinsational second over their past 3/4 starts. I do have a question mark over He's Remarkable at WFA on Saturday, and I do have a question mark over Shez Sinsational at 1600m. Bad luck can strike at any time, but on Saturday I would expect to see better performances from both of these runners, at 1600m Shez Sinsational should be running on strongly and could grab a place. He's Remarkable has won carrying more than the 53kg he carried in the Railway, but I am starting to suspect he might be a tad overrated.
I still have no idea on this race, I like Xanadu, and could talk myself into any one of about 6 other runners for 2nd through 4th. My first draft had Xanadu, He's Remarkable, Fleur de Lune, and Mufhasa as the first four. I can also see Postman's Daughter, Villifye and Shez Sinsational going well.
Melbourne
Underwood Stakes
The winner here could become the Cox Plate second favourite. Ocean Park's first Aussie start, it will be very exciting. It is hard to go past Manighar after the last start second, he would have won if that race had gone another 5 meters and really killed them with another 200m. December Draw was possibly slightly unlucky in that race, but probably not unlucky enough to see him winning this, although 200m will help.I have never been a big fan of Sincero in Melbourne, that may change if he continues his recent form, I still see it as hard to have at $5 despite the quality of the Memsie field he beat. I would expect to see better things from the likes of Illo, Maluckyday, Mawingo, and Niwot. Drunken Sailor could figure fresh. There are also the imports to consider.
I think Manighar will take this out, but it should be a good race with a lot of runners to note. Ocean Park for Second, Southern Speed will be close and Mawingo to round out my first 4. However I think I still need to get by bearings on these runners.
The day in Melbourne is great with the 1000 Guineas Prelude. Single Minded and Zurella in the Naturalism, excited to see Zurella again. Then we get another look at Mosheen in the last.
Sydney
Its a Dundeel and other Derby hopeful 3YO's start off the day in Sydney. Three races later we will see more 3YO's on display in the Group2 Tea Rose.
I would expect a far better effort from Quintessential in the Group 1 George Main Stakes, but this is tougher. All Too Hard is carrying nothing, secret Admirer was very good in the last couple of races, and Danleigh was a very impressive winner last start. There are many others who can figure, it is sure to be a great race.
I thought Mourayan was very good last start, this is tough, but there looks to be some value at $7. Lots of other runners here who will be heading to the big spring races, this is one to watch.
The Aon Insurance Brokers Handicap in the Hawkes Bay will see a lot of top Sprinters make their return for the Spring and Summer., several of the returning runners including Ginner Hart, Aspinal, and Capone have solid first up records to consider. This race will also feature the return of notable 3YO's for their 4YO season, Ginner Hart, Pellegrini and Capital Diamond. You would think the drop back in distance should suit Fritzy Boy, but there are others at lower weights who look a big threat. The Hombre is Group 1 Placed over this distance, he opened as favorite, good conditions on his home track will make him hard to beat even at 58kgs. Baby Guinness looks a danger stepping back into Handicap conditions, she was consistently solid last season, and will enjoy the step back from Group 1 class.
1. Baby Guinness ($7.50)
2. Ginner Hart ($4.50)
3. The Hombre ($4.20)
4. Capital Diamond ($10)
The Gold Trial Stakes is always a good race, they have a top field assembled which should prove a good gauge on form of the filled heading to the guineas. Kate was a very impressive winner here on the first day, and the fact she is paying $8 at the moment is a good indication of the quality of this race. Roll out the Carpet, was relegated from a Group 1 victory as a 2YO, but her win in the Matamata Breeders stakes is still the most impressive victory of any runner in this race - in terms of stature of the race. Fix was very highly regarded on her return run, and this could be a good sign for the chances of A Touch of Ruby who was narrowly beaten in that race. Soriano was solid in both 2YO Group 1's, again she was not far off Fix first up this season. The well named Waterford (I see what you did there) was better than solid late in the 2YO season. Cassie May was consistent at age two, she is already having her third start at age three, this is tougher, but the step up to 1200m should be an assistance. Oasis Rose is back after a long lay off, she showed ability at age 2, but it is hard to know what to expect. Pure Elegance is the favourite, re-watching that start you can see why, I have not seen the trial, but It must have been very impressive. Coastal Express is another who is back for a second start since May. Meleka Bella is stepping up in grade as a recent winner.
1. Pure Elegance ($3.20)
2. Kate ($8)
3. Fix ($6)
4. Rollout the Carpet ($6.50)
The Stayer's come out in the PGG Wrightson Premier, they will be aiming for the third day and beyond to the New Zealand Cup. Carrick is the favourite at very short odds, it is hard to see why based on his last start, and he will carry a kg more, however more distance and better ground will help, but he is nearly impossible to have at $2.80. Back in Black was very impressive on the first day, 2000m will be more suited, but his form was very up and down last year and he will carry more here. Flemington will be looking for this extra distance, he will be also down in weight, but he probably needs a couple more starts before you see him as a winning chance. Herman Munster enjoys the track and distance and might be a bit of value in the wet, unfortunately it looks dry on Saturday. Pero looks a good chance on paper and on the recent victory, but he is probably slightly under good value here.
Rumour Has It Now has been very consistent and looks a very good light weight chance. Seaflyte has never done much in the Bay, but this feels like the kind of race he could win, the weight looks right, the distance should suit, the conditions will be favourable, and the competition is not the hardest, he was second in this race last year carrying 54kg on a good track paying $21 coming off a 10th first up... the winner of that race was Back'n'Black.
1. Seaflyte ($18)
2. Pero ($5)
3. Back'n'Black ($8)
4. Rumour Has It Now ($14)
A note on Carrick - Whenever I see odds of $2.80 after a race like Carrick had two weeks ago I start to suspect there is something that I don't know or don't see.It is possible that Carrick is simply the class in this race, certainly he will be more favoured in these conditions and over 2000m. Frankly, I thought he was a bit overrated last year, I was shocked with the 3rd in the Derby, he was generations behind Silent Achiever, and his two wins have been for $5k and $13k. I would not be shocked to be proved wrong here, but either way it is hard to bet on him at $2.80.
Onto the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate, all I have are questions. Can Mufhasa bounce back with the step up to 1600m? Will Justanexcuse regress to the norm? How will Green Supreme handle WFA conditions this time?
1. Xanadu ($4.50) - Too eye catching last start to turn down
2. Guiseppina ($6) - 200m more last time would have seen her close
3. Mufhasa ($4) - Still capable of winning this
4. Fleur de Lune ($16) - has the Group 1 1600m record
A note on Mufhasa - I think he can win this, I have not picked him to do so. I have picked him for third, but I would be surprised to see him finish third. If he is at his best and still has the ability to win these races, then he will win on Saturday. If he is not, probably there are several others who may finish ahead of him, and he may find himself 6th or 7th. I think he still has it, so I have included him, but this will be a good indication.
A note on Shez Sinsational and He's Remarkable - Conditions, Conditions, WFA?. Too Short, Too Short, Conditions, Luck?. Those are valid excuses for the recent performances of He's Remarkable first and Shez Sinsational second over their past 3/4 starts. I do have a question mark over He's Remarkable at WFA on Saturday, and I do have a question mark over Shez Sinsational at 1600m. Bad luck can strike at any time, but on Saturday I would expect to see better performances from both of these runners, at 1600m Shez Sinsational should be running on strongly and could grab a place. He's Remarkable has won carrying more than the 53kg he carried in the Railway, but I am starting to suspect he might be a tad overrated.
I still have no idea on this race, I like Xanadu, and could talk myself into any one of about 6 other runners for 2nd through 4th. My first draft had Xanadu, He's Remarkable, Fleur de Lune, and Mufhasa as the first four. I can also see Postman's Daughter, Villifye and Shez Sinsational going well.
Melbourne
Underwood Stakes
The winner here could become the Cox Plate second favourite. Ocean Park's first Aussie start, it will be very exciting. It is hard to go past Manighar after the last start second, he would have won if that race had gone another 5 meters and really killed them with another 200m. December Draw was possibly slightly unlucky in that race, but probably not unlucky enough to see him winning this, although 200m will help.I have never been a big fan of Sincero in Melbourne, that may change if he continues his recent form, I still see it as hard to have at $5 despite the quality of the Memsie field he beat. I would expect to see better things from the likes of Illo, Maluckyday, Mawingo, and Niwot. Drunken Sailor could figure fresh. There are also the imports to consider.
I think Manighar will take this out, but it should be a good race with a lot of runners to note. Ocean Park for Second, Southern Speed will be close and Mawingo to round out my first 4. However I think I still need to get by bearings on these runners.
The day in Melbourne is great with the 1000 Guineas Prelude. Single Minded and Zurella in the Naturalism, excited to see Zurella again. Then we get another look at Mosheen in the last.
Sydney
Its a Dundeel and other Derby hopeful 3YO's start off the day in Sydney. Three races later we will see more 3YO's on display in the Group2 Tea Rose.
I would expect a far better effort from Quintessential in the Group 1 George Main Stakes, but this is tougher. All Too Hard is carrying nothing, secret Admirer was very good in the last couple of races, and Danleigh was a very impressive winner last start. There are many others who can figure, it is sure to be a great race.
I thought Mourayan was very good last start, this is tough, but there looks to be some value at $7. Lots of other runners here who will be heading to the big spring races, this is one to watch.
Wednesday 19 September 2012
Spring Notes - 15 September
Things are starting to get pretty serious, so once again I am here to share with you the notes I made while watching some of the bigger races in New Zealand and Australia over the weekend. As always prices at per the NZ TAB
Ruakaka
2YO's
With every runner having their first race day start there was only a couple of trials to rely on for punters. 2YO's really ramp up in the New Year, so hard to say how meaningful a race like this could be, but it may shed some light on the early season listed races for the 2YO age group.
All seemed to travel pretty well, the winner Doubtless really walloped them pulling away to win comfortably. Cant see too many excuses for the rest of them, the next three all finished in quick succession, Almansa (4th) attacking slightly earlier than the others and probably having to do a bit of extra work.
3YO's
Westbruy Stud Challenge Stakes
Well you can all call me crazy. I thought this was a strong field heading into the race, and expect it to be a reasonably strong indication of form moving forward.
Sacred Falls was dominant, had a fairly easy trip, took a bit to wind up once he saw space, but really looked great with a comfortable win.
Southern Lord showed us a solid finish, he struck on next to the eventual winner in the straight, but Sacred falls was just a bit too powerful as Southern Lord dropped away. He probably had to work a bit harder during the race and possibly is closer to Sacred Falls than this race indicated.
Travino looked to struggle for a run, he did find some space and closed on Southern Lord.
King Zeus made ground well, but again was possibly suck in some traffic as Charlie Farley went back through the field, and then again behind Travino.
D'Cash Man finished 4th, he did a lot of work leading and fourth was a strong result.
Elysium really struggled for space, she was still probably 2nd last with 150m to go, she then really came home well into 6th. She was the only filly in the race and certainly held her own.
Silverdale probably does have a bit of an excuse, was last on the turn and had some space on the rail to make a run, but had to make an adjustment to get around Charlie Farley, he accelerated again, but slipped to 7th. He may offer value to someone next start.
1000 Guineas
Elysium - $12
2000 Guineas
D'Cash Man $51
Elysium $31
King Zeus $26
Sacred Falls $7
Silverdale $61
Southern Lord $41
Travino $31
Spring Championship Stakes
King Zeus $61
It is a long way out and a lot can change, but certainly some interesting odds on offer there.
Antonio Lombardo was a group 1 contender heading into his 3YO season, I think he showed that he should remain as a contender this season. He had a fairly solid trip, and actually got a challenge as he wound up and eased away from them. Simple really.
Marton
Metric Mile
No Excuse Maggie was probably caught a little wide early on and had to work. She never really settled into a comfortable position to get into the race.
Amberio had such a nice journey around the track, she showed very good fight, conditions suited and she was only carrying 53kg, but possibly can keep up this solid form as the ratings rise.
Flemington is obviously seeking more distance and looked to pull up over the last 100m or so.
As good as Dubai Belle looked I think it might be hard to see her doing it again in handicap conditions, she wont get that much weight relief and the conditions really suited her well. She has been consistently good recently and seen her rating go from 72 up to 95, but possibly might be one to keep watching on wet tracks.
I thought Zennista looked pretty good for 5th, and Khemosabi held on well for 4th, and Art Beat arrived strongly for 6th.
Spring Classic
Zennista $31 - More distance should suit, WFA is not a concern
Flemington $31
Superturf $101 - Kept fighting for third and looked good but would be hard to take at WFA.
New Zealand Cup
Beau Dane - $41
Flemington $12
Melbourne
Race 1 - 3YO Hcp - Very impressed by Philippi he really wound up to win. Second placed Carringbush Jack seemed to wind up and extend late. Forget seemed inferior to the first two, but still finished strongly and Adjuster set a good pace and just ran out of steam.
Race 2 - 3YOF - Saturn Rock is one we are familiar with with New Zealand, she trailed at the back of the field but looked comfortable. She had to work hard for her run but finally found space at about 150m and came hard to finish third.
Love for Ransom came from further back than Saturn rock probably 2 lengths behind Saturn Rock on the turn and probably extended the lead about a length in the final 50m. Setlla Lante worked hard around the bend and found some space. Mama's Choice was solid and probably lifted again very late. There was a solid finish by Malasun to finish 5th.
A lot of the 3YO's are 1000 Guineas and Caulfield Guineas nominated
Race 3 - Adapt Australia Handicap- Precedence back to winning form and under a big weight. He had to do a bit of work when he attacked early, Michael Rodd went for the whip around the bend. He really wound up and scored going away from them. Spacecraft led and put in a pretty solid run, he kept finding. New Zealand St Ledger champion Guns and Five looked good for 1600m, really wound up and showing his best form in Aussie so far. Ebony Rock finished fifth, but looked to be craving more ground with a strong finish, 1700m is the longest he has gone so far, but may improve over more distance.
Caulfield Cup
Precedence $61
Guns and Five $101
Melbourne Cup
Precedence $51
Guns at Five $101
Race 4 - Japan Trophy - Saw Tanby carrying a big weight, worked home pretty well, but just couldn't really do enough with a 4kg difference, not the worst effort.
Tanby
Melbourne Cup $81
Caulfield Cup $26
The Metropolitan $18
Buxted
The Metropolitan $18
Melbourne Cup $101
Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes
Happy Trails - fought really hard, he actually looked gone and then just seemed to find more.
Green Moon - had a pretty cosy run, he came hard as the two leaders pulled away, almost got there. Looks set to meet Happy Trails 1.5kg worse off currently in the Caulfield Cup, but that will likely change depending on acceptances.
Rekindled Interest - came from about mid field and finished hard into 3rd, a length and a half back, but should get more distance. Cox plate might be tough.
Linton - Looked rejuvenated, wasn't doing much on the corner then followed Rekindled Interest well.
Sneak a Peak - was coming home over the top of other runners.
Ethiopia - Eye catching run for 7th. Will get another kg off over the longer Cox Plate distance.
Current Odds
Ethiopia - Cox Plate $41 - Melbourne Cup $26
Green Moon - Cox Plate $10 - Caulfield Cup $13 - Melbourne Cup - $13 Metropolitan $10
Happy Trails - Cox Plate $21 - Happy Trails $41
Linton- Cox Plate Cox Plate $26 - Caulfield Cup $26 - Melbourne Cup -$31
Rekindled Interest - Cox Plate $12 - Epsom Handicap $16
Sneak a Peak - Cox Plate $81 - Caulfield Cup $41 Melbourne Cup $61
Top Cut Stocks Stakes
Chicharita - Improved in her second Melbourne Start, will continue to improve over more distance. She settled well, but drifted rare and seemed slow to react when the speed was raised. She finished very well for 7th.
Oasis Bloom showed a very strong finish to win.
I thought Dame Claire found another gear late, too late, she was 8th, but looked pretty good.
Spirit Song was narrowly beaten and Oasis Bloom pulled away, but Spirit Song really pushed hard down the inside, possibly unlucky.
Avienus finished really well, but was just out finished by Chateau Margaux.
Current Odds
Avienus - Caulfield Cup $201
Chateau Margaux - Epsom $101 Caulfield Cup $51
Chicharita - The Metripolitian - $81 Caulfield Cup $101 Melbourne Cup $201
Dame Claire - Caulfield Cup $151 Melbourne Cup $301
Sydney - Just a couple of relevant Sydney notes
More Joyous was so good. She looked very calm and relaxed prior to the race, settled in Second and pulled away for the easy win. Likely not to race the Epsom ($10). This Cox Plate is shaping up like an awesome race ($6.50)
Golden Rose
The whole point of these notes is that once runners start having several starts you can build up a bit of history and begin to form opinions. Two weeks ago I showed you odds for Epaulette without commenting on his performance, he looks to have a bight immediate future.
Epaulette and Albrecht both looked very good, they were both trailing the field and came from last very quickly to draw away from the rest for victory. The next two home Ashokan and Ninth Legion both looked as strong as each other but certainly weren't getting any closer to wining.
Cox Plate
Epaulette $41
Ninth Legion $201
Spring Championship Stakes
Ninth Legion $8
Kingstown Town Stakes
The first two Stout Hearted and Crafty Irna travelled well, Stout Hearted caught Strawberry Boy and just comfortably drew away. Crafty Irna fought hard to make up a lot of ground, but probably stopped gaining with about 50m to go. Strawberry Boy was not too bad, he just ran out of steam. Praecido and Ironstein both made good ground from deep, but stopped getting closer. The Verminator possibly struggled to get the best run in the straight and Maules Creek ran out of steam over the 2000m.
Crafty Irna - The Metropolitan - $18
Ironstein - Caulfield Cup $201 Melbourne Cup $101
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31
Praecido - The Metropolitan $61
The Verminator - The Metropolitan $26 Caulfield Cup $101 Melbourne Cup $101
Strawberry Boy - Epsom $16 - The Metropolitan $14 (Status uncertain for both Sydney races) Caulfield Cup $61 Melbourne Cup $151
Stout Hearted - The Metropolitan $12 Caulfield Cup $31 Melbourne Cup $51
Ruakaka
2YO's
With every runner having their first race day start there was only a couple of trials to rely on for punters. 2YO's really ramp up in the New Year, so hard to say how meaningful a race like this could be, but it may shed some light on the early season listed races for the 2YO age group.
All seemed to travel pretty well, the winner Doubtless really walloped them pulling away to win comfortably. Cant see too many excuses for the rest of them, the next three all finished in quick succession, Almansa (4th) attacking slightly earlier than the others and probably having to do a bit of extra work.
3YO's
Westbruy Stud Challenge Stakes
Well you can all call me crazy. I thought this was a strong field heading into the race, and expect it to be a reasonably strong indication of form moving forward.
Sacred Falls was dominant, had a fairly easy trip, took a bit to wind up once he saw space, but really looked great with a comfortable win.
Southern Lord showed us a solid finish, he struck on next to the eventual winner in the straight, but Sacred falls was just a bit too powerful as Southern Lord dropped away. He probably had to work a bit harder during the race and possibly is closer to Sacred Falls than this race indicated.
Travino looked to struggle for a run, he did find some space and closed on Southern Lord.
King Zeus made ground well, but again was possibly suck in some traffic as Charlie Farley went back through the field, and then again behind Travino.
D'Cash Man finished 4th, he did a lot of work leading and fourth was a strong result.
Elysium really struggled for space, she was still probably 2nd last with 150m to go, she then really came home well into 6th. She was the only filly in the race and certainly held her own.
Silverdale probably does have a bit of an excuse, was last on the turn and had some space on the rail to make a run, but had to make an adjustment to get around Charlie Farley, he accelerated again, but slipped to 7th. He may offer value to someone next start.
1000 Guineas
Elysium - $12
2000 Guineas
D'Cash Man $51
Elysium $31
King Zeus $26
Sacred Falls $7
Silverdale $61
Southern Lord $41
Travino $31
Spring Championship Stakes
King Zeus $61
It is a long way out and a lot can change, but certainly some interesting odds on offer there.
Antonio Lombardo was a group 1 contender heading into his 3YO season, I think he showed that he should remain as a contender this season. He had a fairly solid trip, and actually got a challenge as he wound up and eased away from them. Simple really.
Marton
Metric Mile
No Excuse Maggie was probably caught a little wide early on and had to work. She never really settled into a comfortable position to get into the race.
Amberio had such a nice journey around the track, she showed very good fight, conditions suited and she was only carrying 53kg, but possibly can keep up this solid form as the ratings rise.
Flemington is obviously seeking more distance and looked to pull up over the last 100m or so.
As good as Dubai Belle looked I think it might be hard to see her doing it again in handicap conditions, she wont get that much weight relief and the conditions really suited her well. She has been consistently good recently and seen her rating go from 72 up to 95, but possibly might be one to keep watching on wet tracks.
I thought Zennista looked pretty good for 5th, and Khemosabi held on well for 4th, and Art Beat arrived strongly for 6th.
Spring Classic
Zennista $31 - More distance should suit, WFA is not a concern
Flemington $31
Superturf $101 - Kept fighting for third and looked good but would be hard to take at WFA.
New Zealand Cup
Beau Dane - $41
Flemington $12
Melbourne
Race 1 - 3YO Hcp - Very impressed by Philippi he really wound up to win. Second placed Carringbush Jack seemed to wind up and extend late. Forget seemed inferior to the first two, but still finished strongly and Adjuster set a good pace and just ran out of steam.
Race 2 - 3YOF - Saturn Rock is one we are familiar with with New Zealand, she trailed at the back of the field but looked comfortable. She had to work hard for her run but finally found space at about 150m and came hard to finish third.
Love for Ransom came from further back than Saturn rock probably 2 lengths behind Saturn Rock on the turn and probably extended the lead about a length in the final 50m. Setlla Lante worked hard around the bend and found some space. Mama's Choice was solid and probably lifted again very late. There was a solid finish by Malasun to finish 5th.
A lot of the 3YO's are 1000 Guineas and Caulfield Guineas nominated
Race 3 - Adapt Australia Handicap- Precedence back to winning form and under a big weight. He had to do a bit of work when he attacked early, Michael Rodd went for the whip around the bend. He really wound up and scored going away from them. Spacecraft led and put in a pretty solid run, he kept finding. New Zealand St Ledger champion Guns and Five looked good for 1600m, really wound up and showing his best form in Aussie so far. Ebony Rock finished fifth, but looked to be craving more ground with a strong finish, 1700m is the longest he has gone so far, but may improve over more distance.
Caulfield Cup
Precedence $61
Guns and Five $101
Melbourne Cup
Precedence $51
Guns at Five $101
Race 4 - Japan Trophy - Saw Tanby carrying a big weight, worked home pretty well, but just couldn't really do enough with a 4kg difference, not the worst effort.
Tanby
Melbourne Cup $81
Caulfield Cup $26
The Metropolitan $18
Buxted
The Metropolitan $18
Melbourne Cup $101
Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes
Happy Trails - fought really hard, he actually looked gone and then just seemed to find more.
Green Moon - had a pretty cosy run, he came hard as the two leaders pulled away, almost got there. Looks set to meet Happy Trails 1.5kg worse off currently in the Caulfield Cup, but that will likely change depending on acceptances.
Rekindled Interest - came from about mid field and finished hard into 3rd, a length and a half back, but should get more distance. Cox plate might be tough.
Linton - Looked rejuvenated, wasn't doing much on the corner then followed Rekindled Interest well.
Sneak a Peak - was coming home over the top of other runners.
Ethiopia - Eye catching run for 7th. Will get another kg off over the longer Cox Plate distance.
Current Odds
Ethiopia - Cox Plate $41 - Melbourne Cup $26
Green Moon - Cox Plate $10 - Caulfield Cup $13 - Melbourne Cup - $13 Metropolitan $10
Happy Trails - Cox Plate $21 - Happy Trails $41
Linton- Cox Plate Cox Plate $26 - Caulfield Cup $26 - Melbourne Cup -$31
Rekindled Interest - Cox Plate $12 - Epsom Handicap $16
Sneak a Peak - Cox Plate $81 - Caulfield Cup $41 Melbourne Cup $61
Top Cut Stocks Stakes
Chicharita - Improved in her second Melbourne Start, will continue to improve over more distance. She settled well, but drifted rare and seemed slow to react when the speed was raised. She finished very well for 7th.
Oasis Bloom showed a very strong finish to win.
I thought Dame Claire found another gear late, too late, she was 8th, but looked pretty good.
Spirit Song was narrowly beaten and Oasis Bloom pulled away, but Spirit Song really pushed hard down the inside, possibly unlucky.
Avienus finished really well, but was just out finished by Chateau Margaux.
Current Odds
Avienus - Caulfield Cup $201
Chateau Margaux - Epsom $101 Caulfield Cup $51
Chicharita - The Metripolitian - $81 Caulfield Cup $101 Melbourne Cup $201
Dame Claire - Caulfield Cup $151 Melbourne Cup $301
Sydney - Just a couple of relevant Sydney notes
More Joyous was so good. She looked very calm and relaxed prior to the race, settled in Second and pulled away for the easy win. Likely not to race the Epsom ($10). This Cox Plate is shaping up like an awesome race ($6.50)
Golden Rose
The whole point of these notes is that once runners start having several starts you can build up a bit of history and begin to form opinions. Two weeks ago I showed you odds for Epaulette without commenting on his performance, he looks to have a bight immediate future.
Epaulette and Albrecht both looked very good, they were both trailing the field and came from last very quickly to draw away from the rest for victory. The next two home Ashokan and Ninth Legion both looked as strong as each other but certainly weren't getting any closer to wining.
Cox Plate
Epaulette $41
Ninth Legion $201
Spring Championship Stakes
Ninth Legion $8
Kingstown Town Stakes
The first two Stout Hearted and Crafty Irna travelled well, Stout Hearted caught Strawberry Boy and just comfortably drew away. Crafty Irna fought hard to make up a lot of ground, but probably stopped gaining with about 50m to go. Strawberry Boy was not too bad, he just ran out of steam. Praecido and Ironstein both made good ground from deep, but stopped getting closer. The Verminator possibly struggled to get the best run in the straight and Maules Creek ran out of steam over the 2000m.
Crafty Irna - The Metropolitan - $18
Ironstein - Caulfield Cup $201 Melbourne Cup $101
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31
Praecido - The Metropolitan $61
The Verminator - The Metropolitan $26 Caulfield Cup $101 Melbourne Cup $101
Strawberry Boy - Epsom $16 - The Metropolitan $14 (Status uncertain for both Sydney races) Caulfield Cup $61 Melbourne Cup $151
Stout Hearted - The Metropolitan $12 Caulfield Cup $31 Melbourne Cup $51
Saturday 15 September 2012
Going Crazy for 3YO's
This was going to be a short tweet, but then I realised I had more than a couple of thoughts on the 3YO feature from Ruakaka today.
I decided to go back and watch the last couple of starts of all the runners at the NZ Racing site.
There are so many runners starting today who were recent winners or close up last start.
On video the most impressive three wins that I saw were from Elysium (pulled away from them), King Zeus (covered a lot of extra ground in testing conditions), and Sacred Falls (two impressive and different victories).
There were 3 other runners who looked good, Buckland Boy (winner of last two on this track), D'Cash Man ( two strong leading runs), and Silverdale (strong finishing run against tough competition two start back), Southern Lords last start win was also impressive.
Then you have to throw Travino into the mix, he was excellent last year early in the season, he continued to compete at group 1 level. He will likely go well fresh.
So, this leaves me little chance of finding a winner; I just got confused and kept jumping back and forth as I watched each performance.
I think that I have gone crazy, the run that impressed me and is staying with me was the last start victory of Charlie Farley. Yes, he finished 7th behind Sacred Falls in Hamilton 3 starts ago, but his win on this track was eye-catching. He raced 3 wide the whole way, without cover, and toward the back of the field, then he just simply bolted in. He must have covered at least 1200m, he will probably get better over more distance anyway, he has the advantage of the draw. This is a step up and will be a challenge, but when I saw the bookies quote of $21 and $6 I thought that if I can't pick a winner here, picking a value place option might be just as good.
Then again, as I said, maybe I am going crazy.
I decided to go back and watch the last couple of starts of all the runners at the NZ Racing site.
There are so many runners starting today who were recent winners or close up last start.
On video the most impressive three wins that I saw were from Elysium (pulled away from them), King Zeus (covered a lot of extra ground in testing conditions), and Sacred Falls (two impressive and different victories).
There were 3 other runners who looked good, Buckland Boy (winner of last two on this track), D'Cash Man ( two strong leading runs), and Silverdale (strong finishing run against tough competition two start back), Southern Lords last start win was also impressive.
Then you have to throw Travino into the mix, he was excellent last year early in the season, he continued to compete at group 1 level. He will likely go well fresh.
So, this leaves me little chance of finding a winner; I just got confused and kept jumping back and forth as I watched each performance.
I think that I have gone crazy, the run that impressed me and is staying with me was the last start victory of Charlie Farley. Yes, he finished 7th behind Sacred Falls in Hamilton 3 starts ago, but his win on this track was eye-catching. He raced 3 wide the whole way, without cover, and toward the back of the field, then he just simply bolted in. He must have covered at least 1200m, he will probably get better over more distance anyway, he has the advantage of the draw. This is a step up and will be a challenge, but when I saw the bookies quote of $21 and $6 I thought that if I can't pick a winner here, picking a value place option might be just as good.
Then again, as I said, maybe I am going crazy.
Thursday 13 September 2012
Racing Reality
Shameful confession time; I watched The Ridges last night (hey, I live with Girls). It was an amazing 30 minutes of TV; amazing because nothing happened. No conflict, no interesting plot twists, no staged over-produced segments (with the exception of the mouse release in the kitchen). This was not the Kardashian's, on that show the producers at least have the decency to put the characters in situations where something interesting has a chance to happen. In some ways that made The Ridges the most REAL of all the reality TV shows, just two people with normal, boring, mundane lives.
Needless to say TV3's recent foray into prime-time fly-on-the-wall style reality TV is here to stay. You can debate the quality, but, like The GC, I am confident The Ridges will get ratings. Did I just sit back and watch? Nay (neigh?), I got brainstorming. Today, I present to you short pitches for TV3's next reality show, based around racing.
Race Vets
Medical related reality shows are popular. Animal related reality shows are popular. See where I am heading with this? Camera crews follow a bustling Veterinary clinic in Matamata throughout the racing season dealing with all the ailments which crop up in the racing industry.
Punters
This show will follow three punters over a period of 10 weeks. A grizzly veteran, a young up-and-coming gambler, and a novice with no racing experience (one of them a woman) . Each week our punters will be staked with $10,000, the show will follow the experts analysing the racing and placing bets, while the novice will use a different betting/analysing/staking system each week which they have found in a book or some dark corner of the internet. The show follows the ups and downs of big wins and bad beats.
The George Simon Experience
Who is this mysterious voice of the north? Who generates the dulcet baritone heard throughout the concourses and grandstands of Ellerslie and other northern racing venues? This show follows New Zealand's favourite race caller (or mine at least) as he travels the country in search of the perfect call. The preparation, the home life, the interactions of the daily life of George Simon. It also has great potential for crossovers into TV3's other reality IP such as, GS on the GC (George Simon travels to the GC to call a race meeting at Gold Coast race track), or the Ridges at the Races.
The Centre
Behind the scenes of New Zealand's busiest race track (I don't know if that is a fact, but it will certainly help promote a fictitious TV show). Ellerslie's Event Centre is not only a venue for race meetings, but it is also a function centre hosting a range of events from balls and trade shows, to weddings and gigs. There is a host of possible drama when it comes to staging these events which can be nicely exploited in reality TV. The show will be shot around the 12 weeks leading up to Auckland Cup Week, with all the preparation and organisation for the week itself as well as the other events which take place at Ellerslie racecourse over the summer.
The Apprentice
Probably an unusable working title, we could have a subtitle ":the Jockey edition", I also liked "New Zealand's next top Jockey". This show will bring together 10 wannabe apprentice jockeys and one top racing stable. Each week the potential jockeys will compete in challenges related to racing, riding, and stable life to avoid elimination and hope to gain a position as the next apprentice jockey for the stable.
Yearlings
Karaka, January 2013, the hammer drops, David Ellis has just paid top dollar for another prized yearling. This show will follow the top 5 highest priced yearlings to remain in New Zealand from the Karaka sales as they are trained towards their career as a racehorse. The challenges and the triumphs of the stable as they hope to create another champion.
Well, that wasn't so hard. No wonder production companies like reality TV, you don't require a single original thought to create one. Lets hope someone with some juice is reading this and we can see some of these on our screens next year to save ourselves from Season 2 of The Ridges.
Needless to say TV3's recent foray into prime-time fly-on-the-wall style reality TV is here to stay. You can debate the quality, but, like The GC, I am confident The Ridges will get ratings. Did I just sit back and watch? Nay (neigh?), I got brainstorming. Today, I present to you short pitches for TV3's next reality show, based around racing.
Race Vets
Medical related reality shows are popular. Animal related reality shows are popular. See where I am heading with this? Camera crews follow a bustling Veterinary clinic in Matamata throughout the racing season dealing with all the ailments which crop up in the racing industry.
Punters
This show will follow three punters over a period of 10 weeks. A grizzly veteran, a young up-and-coming gambler, and a novice with no racing experience (one of them a woman) . Each week our punters will be staked with $10,000, the show will follow the experts analysing the racing and placing bets, while the novice will use a different betting/analysing/staking system each week which they have found in a book or some dark corner of the internet. The show follows the ups and downs of big wins and bad beats.
The George Simon Experience
Who is this mysterious voice of the north? Who generates the dulcet baritone heard throughout the concourses and grandstands of Ellerslie and other northern racing venues? This show follows New Zealand's favourite race caller (or mine at least) as he travels the country in search of the perfect call. The preparation, the home life, the interactions of the daily life of George Simon. It also has great potential for crossovers into TV3's other reality IP such as, GS on the GC (George Simon travels to the GC to call a race meeting at Gold Coast race track), or the Ridges at the Races.
The Centre
Behind the scenes of New Zealand's busiest race track (I don't know if that is a fact, but it will certainly help promote a fictitious TV show). Ellerslie's Event Centre is not only a venue for race meetings, but it is also a function centre hosting a range of events from balls and trade shows, to weddings and gigs. There is a host of possible drama when it comes to staging these events which can be nicely exploited in reality TV. The show will be shot around the 12 weeks leading up to Auckland Cup Week, with all the preparation and organisation for the week itself as well as the other events which take place at Ellerslie racecourse over the summer.
The Apprentice
Probably an unusable working title, we could have a subtitle ":the Jockey edition", I also liked "New Zealand's next top Jockey". This show will bring together 10 wannabe apprentice jockeys and one top racing stable. Each week the potential jockeys will compete in challenges related to racing, riding, and stable life to avoid elimination and hope to gain a position as the next apprentice jockey for the stable.
Yearlings
Karaka, January 2013, the hammer drops, David Ellis has just paid top dollar for another prized yearling. This show will follow the top 5 highest priced yearlings to remain in New Zealand from the Karaka sales as they are trained towards their career as a racehorse. The challenges and the triumphs of the stable as they hope to create another champion.
Well, that wasn't so hard. No wonder production companies like reality TV, you don't require a single original thought to create one. Lets hope someone with some juice is reading this and we can see some of these on our screens next year to save ourselves from Season 2 of The Ridges.
Monday 10 September 2012
Spring Notes - 9 September 2012
After digesting a good portion of the racing action from New Zealand
and Australia on Saturday I went back and zipped through all of the
action again on Sunday to figure out what I learned about some of the
major contenders for the big races this Spring. My comments for New
Zealand races are a little more thought out, my comments on Australian
races are almost exactly what I jotted down as I watched them and
replayed them. All price quotes are per the New Zealand TAB.
Auckland
The most notable race was the JRA trophy, this race featured Shez Sinsational and a host of other runners who are likely to show up in feature races in the next few months.
Shez Sinational - 1400m is always going to be slightly shorter than ideal, handicap conditions suited some of her rivals, and the wet track (as we discovered in the Nathan's Memorial) was probably not going to suit. I am not sure we will quite see her at her best in the Windsor, and last year it took her a few starts to get that win. We probably saw the performance we needed to see from her, a battling run in unsuitable conditions, as soon as the races get closer to 2000m she will be a big danger.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate - $15, Spring Classic $5
Full of Spirit - looked very good when fresh up. She seems to handle all track conditions well, so should be solid over more distance for the rest of the spring. She is not currently nominated for anything in Australia (as far as I can see, but it looks like she will head that way), her only NZ nomination is the Couplands bakery mile in which you would expect her to be a go of chance.
Postmans Daughter - a favourite of mine, one who always seems to keep fighting. She looked positive again over the weekend, possibly faded relative to Full of Spirit over the last 50m but was strong against all others. She had the benefit of a great trip. Looks like another promising season ahead for her.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate $21 (look for place odds on the day), Spring Classic $14 (Value)
Atom Cat - A year ago he was in the WPP, this year he is not nominated for any of the big features yet, despite the fact the conditions may have assisted him, he finished off this race very strongly despite not getting much luck in the straight.
Carrick - Had to work hard to get into a position to make a run between the 600m and 400m marks, but not that much harder than Full of Spirit worked for her run. He finished off reasonably strongly but possibly faded over the final 150m. He has performed on a slow track in the past, he is possibly looking for more distance (although his two wins have been over 1200m and 1400m). He was only carrying 55kg, this is a bit of a concern heading into a WFA race where he would meet the likes of Postman's Daughter and Shez Sinsational relatively worse off.
Current odds - Windsor - $15 (hard to have), Spring Classic $10 (will have to improve, prefer Postmans Daughter at odds)
3YO's
Tough day to judge them, the track was not great. These conditions are often what we see in Canterbury in November, so it is probably worth taking notes.
Twilight Granita - I loved the run, how much extra ground did she cover? she was racing 4-5 wide at points around the bend. She just kept giving to get there and win. She has been consistent, seems to handle all conditions well, and a step in distance shouldn't hurt.She is nominated for the 1000 guineas, but odds are not yet released.
Kisses - Pretty strong fighting run for second. Not currently nominated, but seems to be the consistent type who is improving with each start.
Hollywood Angel - Horrible start, but she chased them down nicely and showed a strong finish into 6th, she most likely could have won without the bad luck. She is nominated for both Guineas and should be a threat.
Comical Lass - Kept closing into 4th. Seems to perform well on rain effected tracks (which is all she has seen so far).
Hazel - I expected better, she was not really seen. Definitely one to look at on a better track to see how she goes. Should improve 2nd up.
Liberating - Improved with racing before the second in the Matamata Breeders at age two. Looks like she will need a couple of starts this prep before she is at her best.
Ray's Girl - Seemed to keep finishing well after a poor start. Improved with racing last prep, may have been a bit too wet.
Snow Line - Used a bit of energy during the run, but I didn't see any justification for the pre-race price.
Warhorse - I am happy to forgive the favourite and suggest that he didn't handle the conditions when he faded late. He was 6th in the Wentwood Grange before winning a Group 3 last year, so I think we will see him improve into his next start.
Move Faster - I liked the late run of Swiper the Fox, but these two were basically side by side on the bend. Swiper the Fox unwound late, Move Faster accelerated consistently to win nicely. Move faster is yet to see a good track, but looks to be one to keep an eye on throughout the spring.
Batman - Didn't get the best trip, but ran home well living up to the trial form.
Swiper the Fox - Big finishing burst, had to work around the bend, will be stronger over more grounds. I think the conditions suited him.
Freedom - Worked hard to find a place to settle, but did find a handy position. Didn't show much at the finish, probably related to the conditions.
Hayleys Comet - Was far off them when he got a chance to run, but he did seem to come home pretty well, probably not the worst effort on display.
Australia - Sydney
Ming Dynasty
Magic Shaft - Didn't get a lot of luck, wide and probably over raced slightly before fading towards the end. Will need to improve to figure over 2000m. Probably hurt by 59kg in handicap conditions.
Current Odds - Spring Championship Stakes $31
Also Nominated - Caulfield Guineas
Overall I liked what I saw from all of the first 5 finishers, certainly the winner Tatra looked good and carried 58.5kg, and Honorius had a pretty strong finish into Third.
Current Odds
Spring Championship Stake
Tatra $9
Honorius $14
Proverb $14
Rowie $18
Sumarand $18
Golden Rose
Sumarand $41
Chelmsford Stakes
Danleigh was great in winning, and Secret admirer was a strong second. Lights of heaven didn't seem to do a lot, but will improve over more distance and in handicap conditions. Maules Creek showed a decent finish into 5th.
Current odds
Danleigh - Epsom $21 (Hard to have in a Handicap)
Secret Admirer - Epsom $11, Caulfield Cup $41, Cox Plate $21
Lights of Heaven - The Metropolitan $16, Caulfield Cup $31, Cox Plate $51, Melbourne Cup $51
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31, Caulfield Cup $101
Furious Stakes
Pussy Willow - Didn't seem like a great run, she was probably hurt by the pace and never really got into the race.
The first three (Dear Demi, Meidung, and Jade Marauder) all comfortably pulled away from the field, and looked good in their relative positions. Dear Demi won reasonably well, but all three impressed.
Current Odds
Pussy Willow - Nominated 1000 Guineas, will need to improve
Dear Demi - Golden Rose $26
Meidung - Golden Rose $26
Jade Marauder - - Golden Rose $26
Last at Sydney
Quintessenial - As good as a last can be (actually finished second last), certainly didn't get all the favours in the running and probably faded when he got blocked going for a run. I would forgive this run and look for value next start over more distance.
Epsom -$51
Caulfield Cup - $31
Melbourne Cup - $101
Australia - Melbourne
Lets Elope
Zurella - Awesome performance. She really had to fight hard for a run, and looked great when she got one. 55kg under handicap conditions, but as the races get harder she might not take too much of a penalty relative to the other runners she will face. Despite her second in the Oaks and strong Derby run, I felt that the 1400-1600m range was always her most suited distance. I expect she is probably heading to a Caulfield Cup, but she could also prove dangerous in a Myer Classic or Emirates Mile type race.
(Miss) Artistic - Not much between the Ritchie stablemates in the Oaks, but Artistic won, then had some success in Queensland and ended up carrying far more weight over the weekend. Still it was a pretty good performance. She will get better over more ground.
Hi Belle, kept on fighting into second. Lady Melksham fought well into fifth. Yosei unwound fairly late to beat Artistic and finish 6th.
Zurella - Caulfield Cup $31, Melbourne Cup $41
Artistic - Caulfield Cup $61 (good odds, she will improve), Melbourne Cup $101
Yosei - Caulfield Cup $151, Epsom $16, Cox Plate $101
Danehill Stakes
Snitzerland has an awesome name and was very impressive pulling away for victory after struggling for a run. Thought the first three were all pretty good and Swift Exit finished strongly for 5th at big odds.
Makybe Diva
The pace looked a little slow, but it was still an impressive win by Southern Speed to hold out the fast finishing Manighar. Lots of contenders here, the most notable Moudre running well and finishing third. December Draw was possibly a little unlucky, but ran on reasonably well. Efficient travelled wide and just didn't have a lot of finish. Moyuran picked up with pace over the last 100m. Dance With Her finished well late. Second Effort looked very good late coming from wide on the track (I think, I cant read my notes here).
The ones I would watch most closely are probably ones you already know to watch Manighar, Southern Speed, and I would like to see the improvement Second Effort takes from this.
Current Odds
December Draw- Caulfield Cup $26, Melbourne Cup $21, Cox Plate $26
Dance With Her - The Metropolitan $61, Caulfield Cup $101, Melbourne Cup $81
Efficient - The Metropolitan $21 (hard to recommend, will improve over more distance), Caulfield Cup $51, Melbourne Cup $41, Cox Plate $81
Manighar - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $14
Moudre - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $31, Cox Plate $51
Moyuran - The Metropolitan $26, Caulfield Cup $41, Melbourne Cup $51, Cox Plate $101
Southern Speed - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $21
Bobbie Lewis Quality
I think Anabandana is done, I was actually surprised to see her racing, I thought she had retired last year.
Mosheen will be better over more distance.
Sofitel Handicap
I thought the winner Excluded won very well and was pretty happy with what I saw from the first three (Exceptionally and Prizum).
Innocent Lady - was pretty average, she just faded on the bend.
The Jungle Boy - Had a very nice run, but didn't show much when it was time to really race.
Single Minded - Probably lasted 100m more than Innocent Lady. Will improve with more distance.
Current Odds
Excluded - The Metropolitan $18, Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $51
Exceptionally - Melbourne Cup $61
Single Minded - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $81 (certainly capable if makes the field)
Auckland
The most notable race was the JRA trophy, this race featured Shez Sinsational and a host of other runners who are likely to show up in feature races in the next few months.
Shez Sinational - 1400m is always going to be slightly shorter than ideal, handicap conditions suited some of her rivals, and the wet track (as we discovered in the Nathan's Memorial) was probably not going to suit. I am not sure we will quite see her at her best in the Windsor, and last year it took her a few starts to get that win. We probably saw the performance we needed to see from her, a battling run in unsuitable conditions, as soon as the races get closer to 2000m she will be a big danger.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate - $15, Spring Classic $5
Full of Spirit - looked very good when fresh up. She seems to handle all track conditions well, so should be solid over more distance for the rest of the spring. She is not currently nominated for anything in Australia (as far as I can see, but it looks like she will head that way), her only NZ nomination is the Couplands bakery mile in which you would expect her to be a go of chance.
Postmans Daughter - a favourite of mine, one who always seems to keep fighting. She looked positive again over the weekend, possibly faded relative to Full of Spirit over the last 50m but was strong against all others. She had the benefit of a great trip. Looks like another promising season ahead for her.
Current odds - Windsor Park Plate $21 (look for place odds on the day), Spring Classic $14 (Value)
Atom Cat - A year ago he was in the WPP, this year he is not nominated for any of the big features yet, despite the fact the conditions may have assisted him, he finished off this race very strongly despite not getting much luck in the straight.
Carrick - Had to work hard to get into a position to make a run between the 600m and 400m marks, but not that much harder than Full of Spirit worked for her run. He finished off reasonably strongly but possibly faded over the final 150m. He has performed on a slow track in the past, he is possibly looking for more distance (although his two wins have been over 1200m and 1400m). He was only carrying 55kg, this is a bit of a concern heading into a WFA race where he would meet the likes of Postman's Daughter and Shez Sinsational relatively worse off.
Current odds - Windsor - $15 (hard to have), Spring Classic $10 (will have to improve, prefer Postmans Daughter at odds)
3YO's
Tough day to judge them, the track was not great. These conditions are often what we see in Canterbury in November, so it is probably worth taking notes.
Twilight Granita - I loved the run, how much extra ground did she cover? she was racing 4-5 wide at points around the bend. She just kept giving to get there and win. She has been consistent, seems to handle all conditions well, and a step in distance shouldn't hurt.She is nominated for the 1000 guineas, but odds are not yet released.
Kisses - Pretty strong fighting run for second. Not currently nominated, but seems to be the consistent type who is improving with each start.
Hollywood Angel - Horrible start, but she chased them down nicely and showed a strong finish into 6th, she most likely could have won without the bad luck. She is nominated for both Guineas and should be a threat.
Comical Lass - Kept closing into 4th. Seems to perform well on rain effected tracks (which is all she has seen so far).
Hazel - I expected better, she was not really seen. Definitely one to look at on a better track to see how she goes. Should improve 2nd up.
Liberating - Improved with racing before the second in the Matamata Breeders at age two. Looks like she will need a couple of starts this prep before she is at her best.
Ray's Girl - Seemed to keep finishing well after a poor start. Improved with racing last prep, may have been a bit too wet.
Snow Line - Used a bit of energy during the run, but I didn't see any justification for the pre-race price.
Warhorse - I am happy to forgive the favourite and suggest that he didn't handle the conditions when he faded late. He was 6th in the Wentwood Grange before winning a Group 3 last year, so I think we will see him improve into his next start.
Move Faster - I liked the late run of Swiper the Fox, but these two were basically side by side on the bend. Swiper the Fox unwound late, Move Faster accelerated consistently to win nicely. Move faster is yet to see a good track, but looks to be one to keep an eye on throughout the spring.
Batman - Didn't get the best trip, but ran home well living up to the trial form.
Swiper the Fox - Big finishing burst, had to work around the bend, will be stronger over more grounds. I think the conditions suited him.
Freedom - Worked hard to find a place to settle, but did find a handy position. Didn't show much at the finish, probably related to the conditions.
Hayleys Comet - Was far off them when he got a chance to run, but he did seem to come home pretty well, probably not the worst effort on display.
Australia - Sydney
Ming Dynasty
Magic Shaft - Didn't get a lot of luck, wide and probably over raced slightly before fading towards the end. Will need to improve to figure over 2000m. Probably hurt by 59kg in handicap conditions.
Current Odds - Spring Championship Stakes $31
Also Nominated - Caulfield Guineas
Overall I liked what I saw from all of the first 5 finishers, certainly the winner Tatra looked good and carried 58.5kg, and Honorius had a pretty strong finish into Third.
Current Odds
Spring Championship Stake
Tatra $9
Honorius $14
Proverb $14
Rowie $18
Sumarand $18
Golden Rose
Sumarand $41
Chelmsford Stakes
Danleigh was great in winning, and Secret admirer was a strong second. Lights of heaven didn't seem to do a lot, but will improve over more distance and in handicap conditions. Maules Creek showed a decent finish into 5th.
Current odds
Danleigh - Epsom $21 (Hard to have in a Handicap)
Secret Admirer - Epsom $11, Caulfield Cup $41, Cox Plate $21
Lights of Heaven - The Metropolitan $16, Caulfield Cup $31, Cox Plate $51, Melbourne Cup $51
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31, Caulfield Cup $101
Furious Stakes
Pussy Willow - Didn't seem like a great run, she was probably hurt by the pace and never really got into the race.
The first three (Dear Demi, Meidung, and Jade Marauder) all comfortably pulled away from the field, and looked good in their relative positions. Dear Demi won reasonably well, but all three impressed.
Current Odds
Pussy Willow - Nominated 1000 Guineas, will need to improve
Dear Demi - Golden Rose $26
Meidung - Golden Rose $26
Jade Marauder - - Golden Rose $26
Last at Sydney
Quintessenial - As good as a last can be (actually finished second last), certainly didn't get all the favours in the running and probably faded when he got blocked going for a run. I would forgive this run and look for value next start over more distance.
Epsom -$51
Caulfield Cup - $31
Melbourne Cup - $101
Australia - Melbourne
Lets Elope
Zurella - Awesome performance. She really had to fight hard for a run, and looked great when she got one. 55kg under handicap conditions, but as the races get harder she might not take too much of a penalty relative to the other runners she will face. Despite her second in the Oaks and strong Derby run, I felt that the 1400-1600m range was always her most suited distance. I expect she is probably heading to a Caulfield Cup, but she could also prove dangerous in a Myer Classic or Emirates Mile type race.
(Miss) Artistic - Not much between the Ritchie stablemates in the Oaks, but Artistic won, then had some success in Queensland and ended up carrying far more weight over the weekend. Still it was a pretty good performance. She will get better over more ground.
Hi Belle, kept on fighting into second. Lady Melksham fought well into fifth. Yosei unwound fairly late to beat Artistic and finish 6th.
Zurella - Caulfield Cup $31, Melbourne Cup $41
Artistic - Caulfield Cup $61 (good odds, she will improve), Melbourne Cup $101
Yosei - Caulfield Cup $151, Epsom $16, Cox Plate $101
Danehill Stakes
Snitzerland has an awesome name and was very impressive pulling away for victory after struggling for a run. Thought the first three were all pretty good and Swift Exit finished strongly for 5th at big odds.
Makybe Diva
The pace looked a little slow, but it was still an impressive win by Southern Speed to hold out the fast finishing Manighar. Lots of contenders here, the most notable Moudre running well and finishing third. December Draw was possibly a little unlucky, but ran on reasonably well. Efficient travelled wide and just didn't have a lot of finish. Moyuran picked up with pace over the last 100m. Dance With Her finished well late. Second Effort looked very good late coming from wide on the track (I think, I cant read my notes here).
The ones I would watch most closely are probably ones you already know to watch Manighar, Southern Speed, and I would like to see the improvement Second Effort takes from this.
Current Odds
December Draw- Caulfield Cup $26, Melbourne Cup $21, Cox Plate $26
Dance With Her - The Metropolitan $61, Caulfield Cup $101, Melbourne Cup $81
Efficient - The Metropolitan $21 (hard to recommend, will improve over more distance), Caulfield Cup $51, Melbourne Cup $41, Cox Plate $81
Manighar - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $14
Moudre - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $31, Cox Plate $51
Moyuran - The Metropolitan $26, Caulfield Cup $41, Melbourne Cup $51, Cox Plate $101
Southern Speed - Caulfield Cup $18, Melbourne Cup $26, Cox Plate $21
Bobbie Lewis Quality
I think Anabandana is done, I was actually surprised to see her racing, I thought she had retired last year.
Mosheen will be better over more distance.
Sofitel Handicap
I thought the winner Excluded won very well and was pretty happy with what I saw from the first three (Exceptionally and Prizum).
Innocent Lady - was pretty average, she just faded on the bend.
The Jungle Boy - Had a very nice run, but didn't show much when it was time to really race.
Single Minded - Probably lasted 100m more than Innocent Lady. Will improve with more distance.
Current Odds
Excluded - The Metropolitan $18, Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $51
Exceptionally - Melbourne Cup $61
Single Minded - Caulfield Cup $21, Melbourne Cup $81 (certainly capable if makes the field)
Monday 3 September 2012
What have we learned this Spring? (1st Edition)
It is springtime, you wouldn't know it if you looked out the window, but trust me it is. Spring racing is underway, and with big races ahead it is important to look back and reflect on what we saw on the weekend.
Ocean Park
Seems like the logical place to start. The best thing about the stunning performance on Saturday is that he probably had excuses as to why it was not his best performance, he should improve from this point as well. At Hastings on the weekend most winners were coming from the front part of the field and not a lot were making up ground from the back, while OP didn't drop back as far as he has in past runners from his handy draw, he made ground to win with a stunning turn of foot. He will be better over more distance, he will be better on good ground. It was a great ride from Lisa Allpress and he didn't get all the favours in the straight. He will improve.
Current Odds
Cox Plate $14; Caulfield Cup $16
Mufhasa
Not sure what to make from his performance, he came into a very strong favourite before the start. Khemosabi challenged him and he faded over the last 100m or so. I did notice that Sam Spratt dropped her whip at some point in the straight, it is hard to make out on the replay on the NZ Racing site. It is impossible to know if it made a difference, but I cannot imagine it helped. I am sure we are not done with Mufhasa in Group 1's and make sure to keep him safe over 1600m in the Windsor Park Plate.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5
Xanadu
Another eye catching finish and another who should improve with more distance and from that run. She is a big strong 4YO mare who almost certainly must have Australian aspirations. She was another who came from deep to perform against the way most runners were performing on the day. She has already had strong form over 1600m and it would not surprise to see her win over 2000m, she is very capable of winning the Winsor Park Plate and/or Spring Classic.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5; Spring Classic $5
Justanexcuse
So close to the upset on the weekend, a great ride and good tactics almost got him there. 1600m has been a tough distance for him since October last year, with most attempts against Group 1 level competition. It was a good performance, but it would be surprising to see him go two better in the Windsor.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $21
Guiseppina
Another encouraging performance. She came at them late to finish fifth. Her best results have all been between 1200-1400m but she is capable at 1600m. Are the connections looking at another trip to Australia this spring? A good performance in the Windsor may be needed if we are to consider her better than the 15th in last years Myer Classic.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $7
Time Keeper
Wins generally have come after 10 starts, he out performed his expectations but it would surprise for him to show up like that again in two weeks.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $41: Spring Classic $41
Green Supreme
Had a fairly sweet trip for a runner who was 3 wide, the cover from Baby Guinness was important. You are probably going to like him more over 1600m and even more over 2000m, so the fast finish was important, a good track may have seen him closer. There is a lot to like moving forward and he may even offer some value in the Windsor as Xanadu, Mufhasa, and Guiseppina attract attention.
Current Odds
Windsor $7; Spring Classic $5
Fleur de Lune
Probably didn't live up to expectations, but possibly didn't get the smooth trip you might have expected from that draw. It looked like she was blocked a couple of times in the straight just as she was trying to make her run, hard to know how much it hurt her performance, but it did get a mention in the Stewards report. I am not sure she is better suited to 1600m, but she is certainly capable.
Windsor $15; Classic $31
He's Remarkable
He has now had 3 straight performances to forget, but the last two have been on dead tracks, and Saturday's was upgraded from Slow not long before the race. 1600m is where he will be at his best, so he is worthy of another look. With a couple of trips to Aussie under his belt it would not be unexpected to see a return, but I cannot imagine the Cox Plate as a realistic location based off that performance.
Windsor $8; Classic $10; Cox Plate $101
3YO's
I certainly liked what I saw from Kate over 1200m in the first from the bay. It looks like she has improved from age 2 and won a tough race. Dorian Grey came home well into second which was worth noting, It will be interesting to see these two again. In Tauranga Kate's stablemate Perfect Start made a perfect start to her racing career winning while making up a lot of ground on the straight.
Civics Rock/Villify
Also at Tauranga Civics Rock was very impressive finishing off strongly to dominate a small field with some talent. Villify will need to take a lot of improvement from that run to feature in the Windsor, 1600m is certainly more suitable and he did finish reasonably strongly, still $13 seems a little short.
Windsor $13 (Villify)
Back In Black
A strong win over 1600m, he seems to go well in Hastings at this time of year, 2000m should suit, but he was fairly inconsistent last year. Still at $41 in the Spring classic he is certainly not the worst on offer, I imagine he will have a run on the Second day, so he is one to watch.
Spring Classic $41
No Excuse Maggie/Smoulder/Platinum Passion/Intransigent
Not a whole lot to write home about from this Group 1 nominated bunch. Intransigent had to do too much work. No Excuse Maggie seemed a bit keen, but got a good trip. Platinum Passion had a sweet trip and ran on a bit. Smoulder ran home well. We probably wanted to see a bit more from this bunch of runners if they are going to go on to have Group 1 success. The eye-catching performance was from Amberio who has been quietly successful over the past 12 months plus, she is one to look out for next start.
Current Odds
Windsor
No Excuse Maggie $41
Smoulder $61
Spring Classic
Intransigent $101
Platinum Passion $101
Two more winners who were very good on the day were Papilo and The Knight. No idea where they may be heading, but it is worth having a look when you see them.
Quick Aussie Notes
How long will Pierro remain undefeated and how many Group 1's will he win in Melbourne this Spring? last seasons star 2YO continued his winning streak on route to the Caulfield Guineas and possibly the Cox Plate. He was challenged by Your Song who was impressive, and also beat All Too Hard who missed 3rd by a head bob and finished 5th. All Too Hard and Pierro no longer have a rivalry, Pierro is established as clearly superior.
Current Odds
Golden Rose
All Too Hard $7.50
Your Song $9 (might be unlikely to start I think I heard on Saturday, so do your research)
Epaulette $9
Ninth Legion $16
Cox Plate
All Too Hard $51
Pierro $6
Glencadam Gold won over 1800m against a range of cups possibles, but hard to read too much into it this far out. If you liked it there are still very good odds available for both big cups.
In Melbourne Sincero won the Memsie Stakes. I always look at this as the first race to consider as runners build to the big three. Sincero was very strong in Sydney last spring before heading to Melbourne and probably been a bit outclassed, this looks like a sign of improvement. This was a pretty Strong field which included Green Moon (2nd 2011 Caulfield Cup), Wall Street, Maluckyday (2010 2nd Melbourne Cup, Lexus winner), Heart of Dreams (Group 1 winner, second in Memsie last year), Rekindled Interest (3rd Mackinnon and Cox Plate last year), Niwot (Lexus winner 2011, Sydney Cup winner 2012), Sanagas (nothing to see here just yet), and Midas Touch (3rd Underwood, 3rd Makybe Diva last year). There is a lot to consider from that race.
Current Odds
Sincero - Cox Plate $16, Caulfield Cup $41
Green Moon - Cox Plate $21, Caulfield Cup $14, Melbourne Cup (pre noms) $18
Wall Street - Cox Plate $101, CC $81
Maluckyday - Cox Plate $81, CC $31, MC $26
Heart of Dreams - CP $101
Rekindled Interest - CP $12
Niwot - CP $151, CC $41, MC $41
Sanagas - CP $101, CC $51, MC $51
Midas Touch - CP $201, CC $61, MC $81
Probably not a lot to worry about just yet, but good to monitor.
Ocean Park
Seems like the logical place to start. The best thing about the stunning performance on Saturday is that he probably had excuses as to why it was not his best performance, he should improve from this point as well. At Hastings on the weekend most winners were coming from the front part of the field and not a lot were making up ground from the back, while OP didn't drop back as far as he has in past runners from his handy draw, he made ground to win with a stunning turn of foot. He will be better over more distance, he will be better on good ground. It was a great ride from Lisa Allpress and he didn't get all the favours in the straight. He will improve.
Current Odds
Cox Plate $14; Caulfield Cup $16
Mufhasa
Not sure what to make from his performance, he came into a very strong favourite before the start. Khemosabi challenged him and he faded over the last 100m or so. I did notice that Sam Spratt dropped her whip at some point in the straight, it is hard to make out on the replay on the NZ Racing site. It is impossible to know if it made a difference, but I cannot imagine it helped. I am sure we are not done with Mufhasa in Group 1's and make sure to keep him safe over 1600m in the Windsor Park Plate.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5
Xanadu
Another eye catching finish and another who should improve with more distance and from that run. She is a big strong 4YO mare who almost certainly must have Australian aspirations. She was another who came from deep to perform against the way most runners were performing on the day. She has already had strong form over 1600m and it would not surprise to see her win over 2000m, she is very capable of winning the Winsor Park Plate and/or Spring Classic.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5; Spring Classic $5
Justanexcuse
So close to the upset on the weekend, a great ride and good tactics almost got him there. 1600m has been a tough distance for him since October last year, with most attempts against Group 1 level competition. It was a good performance, but it would be surprising to see him go two better in the Windsor.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $21
Guiseppina
Another encouraging performance. She came at them late to finish fifth. Her best results have all been between 1200-1400m but she is capable at 1600m. Are the connections looking at another trip to Australia this spring? A good performance in the Windsor may be needed if we are to consider her better than the 15th in last years Myer Classic.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $7
Time Keeper
Wins generally have come after 10 starts, he out performed his expectations but it would surprise for him to show up like that again in two weeks.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $41: Spring Classic $41
Green Supreme
Had a fairly sweet trip for a runner who was 3 wide, the cover from Baby Guinness was important. You are probably going to like him more over 1600m and even more over 2000m, so the fast finish was important, a good track may have seen him closer. There is a lot to like moving forward and he may even offer some value in the Windsor as Xanadu, Mufhasa, and Guiseppina attract attention.
Current Odds
Windsor $7; Spring Classic $5
Fleur de Lune
Probably didn't live up to expectations, but possibly didn't get the smooth trip you might have expected from that draw. It looked like she was blocked a couple of times in the straight just as she was trying to make her run, hard to know how much it hurt her performance, but it did get a mention in the Stewards report. I am not sure she is better suited to 1600m, but she is certainly capable.
Windsor $15; Classic $31
He's Remarkable
He has now had 3 straight performances to forget, but the last two have been on dead tracks, and Saturday's was upgraded from Slow not long before the race. 1600m is where he will be at his best, so he is worthy of another look. With a couple of trips to Aussie under his belt it would not be unexpected to see a return, but I cannot imagine the Cox Plate as a realistic location based off that performance.
Windsor $8; Classic $10; Cox Plate $101
3YO's
I certainly liked what I saw from Kate over 1200m in the first from the bay. It looks like she has improved from age 2 and won a tough race. Dorian Grey came home well into second which was worth noting, It will be interesting to see these two again. In Tauranga Kate's stablemate Perfect Start made a perfect start to her racing career winning while making up a lot of ground on the straight.
Civics Rock/Villify
Also at Tauranga Civics Rock was very impressive finishing off strongly to dominate a small field with some talent. Villify will need to take a lot of improvement from that run to feature in the Windsor, 1600m is certainly more suitable and he did finish reasonably strongly, still $13 seems a little short.
Windsor $13 (Villify)
Back In Black
A strong win over 1600m, he seems to go well in Hastings at this time of year, 2000m should suit, but he was fairly inconsistent last year. Still at $41 in the Spring classic he is certainly not the worst on offer, I imagine he will have a run on the Second day, so he is one to watch.
Spring Classic $41
No Excuse Maggie/Smoulder/Platinum Passion/Intransigent
Not a whole lot to write home about from this Group 1 nominated bunch. Intransigent had to do too much work. No Excuse Maggie seemed a bit keen, but got a good trip. Platinum Passion had a sweet trip and ran on a bit. Smoulder ran home well. We probably wanted to see a bit more from this bunch of runners if they are going to go on to have Group 1 success. The eye-catching performance was from Amberio who has been quietly successful over the past 12 months plus, she is one to look out for next start.
Current Odds
Windsor
No Excuse Maggie $41
Smoulder $61
Spring Classic
Intransigent $101
Platinum Passion $101
Two more winners who were very good on the day were Papilo and The Knight. No idea where they may be heading, but it is worth having a look when you see them.
Quick Aussie Notes
How long will Pierro remain undefeated and how many Group 1's will he win in Melbourne this Spring? last seasons star 2YO continued his winning streak on route to the Caulfield Guineas and possibly the Cox Plate. He was challenged by Your Song who was impressive, and also beat All Too Hard who missed 3rd by a head bob and finished 5th. All Too Hard and Pierro no longer have a rivalry, Pierro is established as clearly superior.
Current Odds
Golden Rose
All Too Hard $7.50
Your Song $9 (might be unlikely to start I think I heard on Saturday, so do your research)
Epaulette $9
Ninth Legion $16
Cox Plate
All Too Hard $51
Pierro $6
Glencadam Gold won over 1800m against a range of cups possibles, but hard to read too much into it this far out. If you liked it there are still very good odds available for both big cups.
In Melbourne Sincero won the Memsie Stakes. I always look at this as the first race to consider as runners build to the big three. Sincero was very strong in Sydney last spring before heading to Melbourne and probably been a bit outclassed, this looks like a sign of improvement. This was a pretty Strong field which included Green Moon (2nd 2011 Caulfield Cup), Wall Street, Maluckyday (2010 2nd Melbourne Cup, Lexus winner), Heart of Dreams (Group 1 winner, second in Memsie last year), Rekindled Interest (3rd Mackinnon and Cox Plate last year), Niwot (Lexus winner 2011, Sydney Cup winner 2012), Sanagas (nothing to see here just yet), and Midas Touch (3rd Underwood, 3rd Makybe Diva last year). There is a lot to consider from that race.
Current Odds
Sincero - Cox Plate $16, Caulfield Cup $41
Green Moon - Cox Plate $21, Caulfield Cup $14, Melbourne Cup (pre noms) $18
Wall Street - Cox Plate $101, CC $81
Maluckyday - Cox Plate $81, CC $31, MC $26
Heart of Dreams - CP $101
Rekindled Interest - CP $12
Niwot - CP $151, CC $41, MC $41
Sanagas - CP $101, CC $51, MC $51
Midas Touch - CP $201, CC $61, MC $81
Probably not a lot to worry about just yet, but good to monitor.
Friday 31 August 2012
Makfi Challenge Stakes Preview
Wow, the first Group 1 of the Season, does this feel early to you? where has the winter gone. September 1 is actually slightly later than it has been over the past few years, last time the race was in the month of September was back in 2007 when Seachange won the second of her two back-to-back Mudgway's (as it was then known), can Mufhasa defend his title 5 years to the day?
There are a lot of unknowns at this point in the season, who will come back strong from a winter off? who will continue their winter form into this higher level of racing? which 4 year old is going to step up and build on their 3YO form? and are we going to see the same old vintage Mufhasa? if we are this race may already be over. Looking at the odds on offer $4.40, the TAB is unsure what to expect. They are almost as uncertain as the rain forecast over these next few days.
This race has been won by fairly favoured runners over the past handful of years, the only blowout winner was Tavistock in 2009 at over $40, the only other double digit winner since the Seachange's first win in 2006 was Keep The Peace, she was probably better than that and went on to win other Group 1's, so I think it was worth keeping the favourites pretty safe.
#1 Mufhasa (5)
He is now age 8 and will be having his 51st start, I don't think we need to spend a lot of time going into his vast and impressive resume. I think you could easily argue that not only was Mufhasa the New Zealand horse of the year for the 2011/12 year, but that it was the finest year of his career. He has been so good and consistent since this race last year that I don't even know where you would start to search for a reason not to include him.
#2 Justanexcuse (6)
Seemed to tire over the second half of his campaign last year. Has been back for one start and should be better for it, he has a pretty good 2nd up record. Wins last year did not really come against this level of competition but all came at this distance and two at or above 59kg. Hard to include, but possibly a bit of value at $26 currently.
#3 Fritzy Boy (13)
The second former winner of this race in the field. He was off for almost a year when he returned strongly at Waikato recently. I thought that run showed some heart, and he may find himself in a similar position from a wide barrier this week. He always seems to go well in this set of races, 5th last year in this race. He will also go well with a bit of rain. Not a lot of recent form to go on, but if you consider a $15 winner to be an upset he might be the best chance of an upset in this race, except...
#4 Green Supreme (3)
... is paying the same as Fritzy Boy at this point.
There was a lot to like about the season of Green Supreme last year, he effectively returned from overseas racing in 2010 at rating 70 and by the end of the year was racing at Group 1 Level with a rating around 100.
I am still not sure what this horse is, forget the Wellington Cup start, will we see him work his way up to that distance this year? the win over 1400m at Awapuni was great, the finish in the Easter was strong. He will likely start slowly from barrier 3 and sprint for home. He won twice on a slow track last year so I am not sure what the concern is.
#5 I am Sam (2)
Could be a real opportunist here with wet weather. He has had strong winter form and performs best over 1400m. This class is a big test, and I am not sure it is one he is capable of passing, but maybe one to include in multiples if it is very wet.
#6 The Hombre (8)
He was very competitive last year, including a narrow loss at Group 1 victory. He has had one run back, he was not as strong as we have come to expect first up, I am happy to put that down to the track and give him another chance 2nd up, where he has been consistently strong. This is a test, but 1400m at Hawkes Bay suits the John Bary trained runner, if the rain stays away I am sure you will see him shorter than the $26 currently on offer.
#7 He's Remarkable (17)
Another to win a Group 1 in Australia last year. What? oh, that's right, shhhh.
His Autumn in Sydney was not as successful as his Spring in Aussie, but he is definitely capable in this class. He won on this track last year before leaving for Melbourne and will be looking to do the same this year. He is far less remarkable in the wet, but not terrible. He suffered from a string of wide draws at age 3 but was lucky last year in that area, barrier 17 could prove difficult.
#8 Time Keeper (12)
He is usually pretty consistent. He is a Group 1 Winner, but that was carrying very little at handicap conditions.He should be fit for running through the winter, all of his wins have come after ten starts other than his one this campaign. His best results have been on good tracks, but I would expect to see him race in any conditions. This might be a big ask for Sir Slick 2.0.
#9 Khemosabi (14)
Solid throughout the winter, but this is much harder. Will be racing at his favoured distance, and will be hoping for rain. Has risen through the ranks but WFA conditions rule him out this time.
#10 Ocean Park (4)
Despite the wraps on him prior to pulling out of the derby last year, and the strong performance in his Guineas second place at Rosehill I am still not sure what to make of the second favourite.
What can we say from his record? He is consistent, he has never won (or started) at 1400m, his one start on a slow track was not his best (albeit against very tough competition), he is drawn well (but hasn't really made the most of strong draws in the past, generally still overpowering fields). The main question is really around the 1400m, is this what he is aiming for, or will be be better with a couple of starts over more distance? He is talented and you have to give him a chance, maybe the domination of the Wellington Stakes is the race to go back and watch, but this is tougher and I am not sure I would take him at $4.60, but I certainly don't have the guts to leave him off the podium.
#11 Fleur de Lune (1)
Might she have finally found the form to get that Group 1 victory? four Group1 placings, including 3rd in this race last year. 1400m is ideal and she could have possibly improved from the Foxbridge run. It is hard to question her on any surface. Considering the runners between her and Mufhasa in 5 she should get a very sweet trip in behind a likely leader. If I had major concerns over Mufhasa this is where I would be looking.
#12 Guiseppina (17)
She had a great year last year, and will look to build on that this year. Always solid first up but usually better second up, she will need good ground to show her best. She is good under WFA conditions and will probably be running home well, she won a Group 1 last year from barrier 18, so don't rule her out on the draw.
#13 Art Beat (10)
Has to be considered on a wet track, but will the track improve too much and hurt her chances. I always liked this runner and she is coming off the biggest win of her career. She has had more success under handicap conditions and this just looks too tough.
#14 No Excuse Maggie (15)
Another local, who enjoys this distance and would be a chance if the track remains moist. She does tend to win after a few runs as evidenced by her performance last start at Otaki. She has not been as strong in conditions with a set weight. Her one Group 1 outing last year was solid, but there is a difference in class. The draw is not really a concern, she should be handy and able to get across relatively easy on Saturday.
#15 Innovation (18)
Rose quickly through the grades with good success over the winter, but didn't really match it with the classier 3YO's early in that year. None of those wins are really comparable to this race and the impressive winter cup was still under handicap conditions. She will be better off than some as a 4YO mare at 56.5kg, and another who is more likeable if the track remains slow, but there are others I prefer more...
#16 Xanadu (10)
... such as another 4YO mare, one which should be far more preferred. A heap of merit from the run in the Waikato, although she had won on a slow track she looked to get through that ground very nicely. 200m further will suit. A Group 1 3rd only four months ago, but she will carry an extra 2kg as a 4YO Saturday. She was great early at age 3 and could go well to start off her 4YO campaign.
#17 Baby Guinness (9)
She is a possible starter. I just wanted to quickly comment that I thought the run in the tron was actually pretty good, she looked to run on well into 5th then fade over the last 50m. That was the first start since the summer and she probably needed it after over-racing throughout. I don't think she is up to this class, but she is a solid performer who might be interesting in multiples.
The Picks
Winner: Mufhasa - If this race was run in April he would have been the clear favourite, I don't really see what has changed.
Second: Fleur de Lune - I actually like her for second, but I am worried about the FdL tax, this little known rule of nature which states she must never quite live up to expectations.
Third: Ocean Park - I really don't know, I don't think he is as good as Jimmy Choux was coming into this last year, and feel like 1600m will be better, but he is hard to leave out.
Fourth: The Hombre - I went back and forth with He's Remarkable and Green Supreme for this spot. I think the track will improve, but maybe not quite enough for the other two.
There are a lot of unknowns at this point in the season, who will come back strong from a winter off? who will continue their winter form into this higher level of racing? which 4 year old is going to step up and build on their 3YO form? and are we going to see the same old vintage Mufhasa? if we are this race may already be over. Looking at the odds on offer $4.40, the TAB is unsure what to expect. They are almost as uncertain as the rain forecast over these next few days.
This race has been won by fairly favoured runners over the past handful of years, the only blowout winner was Tavistock in 2009 at over $40, the only other double digit winner since the Seachange's first win in 2006 was Keep The Peace, she was probably better than that and went on to win other Group 1's, so I think it was worth keeping the favourites pretty safe.
#1 Mufhasa (5)
He is now age 8 and will be having his 51st start, I don't think we need to spend a lot of time going into his vast and impressive resume. I think you could easily argue that not only was Mufhasa the New Zealand horse of the year for the 2011/12 year, but that it was the finest year of his career. He has been so good and consistent since this race last year that I don't even know where you would start to search for a reason not to include him.
#2 Justanexcuse (6)
Seemed to tire over the second half of his campaign last year. Has been back for one start and should be better for it, he has a pretty good 2nd up record. Wins last year did not really come against this level of competition but all came at this distance and two at or above 59kg. Hard to include, but possibly a bit of value at $26 currently.
#3 Fritzy Boy (13)
The second former winner of this race in the field. He was off for almost a year when he returned strongly at Waikato recently. I thought that run showed some heart, and he may find himself in a similar position from a wide barrier this week. He always seems to go well in this set of races, 5th last year in this race. He will also go well with a bit of rain. Not a lot of recent form to go on, but if you consider a $15 winner to be an upset he might be the best chance of an upset in this race, except...
#4 Green Supreme (3)
... is paying the same as Fritzy Boy at this point.
There was a lot to like about the season of Green Supreme last year, he effectively returned from overseas racing in 2010 at rating 70 and by the end of the year was racing at Group 1 Level with a rating around 100.
I am still not sure what this horse is, forget the Wellington Cup start, will we see him work his way up to that distance this year? the win over 1400m at Awapuni was great, the finish in the Easter was strong. He will likely start slowly from barrier 3 and sprint for home. He won twice on a slow track last year so I am not sure what the concern is.
#5 I am Sam (2)
Could be a real opportunist here with wet weather. He has had strong winter form and performs best over 1400m. This class is a big test, and I am not sure it is one he is capable of passing, but maybe one to include in multiples if it is very wet.
#6 The Hombre (8)
He was very competitive last year, including a narrow loss at Group 1 victory. He has had one run back, he was not as strong as we have come to expect first up, I am happy to put that down to the track and give him another chance 2nd up, where he has been consistently strong. This is a test, but 1400m at Hawkes Bay suits the John Bary trained runner, if the rain stays away I am sure you will see him shorter than the $26 currently on offer.
#7 He's Remarkable (17)
Another to win a Group 1 in Australia last year. What? oh, that's right, shhhh.
His Autumn in Sydney was not as successful as his Spring in Aussie, but he is definitely capable in this class. He won on this track last year before leaving for Melbourne and will be looking to do the same this year. He is far less remarkable in the wet, but not terrible. He suffered from a string of wide draws at age 3 but was lucky last year in that area, barrier 17 could prove difficult.
#8 Time Keeper (12)
He is usually pretty consistent. He is a Group 1 Winner, but that was carrying very little at handicap conditions.He should be fit for running through the winter, all of his wins have come after ten starts other than his one this campaign. His best results have been on good tracks, but I would expect to see him race in any conditions. This might be a big ask for Sir Slick 2.0.
#9 Khemosabi (14)
Solid throughout the winter, but this is much harder. Will be racing at his favoured distance, and will be hoping for rain. Has risen through the ranks but WFA conditions rule him out this time.
#10 Ocean Park (4)
Despite the wraps on him prior to pulling out of the derby last year, and the strong performance in his Guineas second place at Rosehill I am still not sure what to make of the second favourite.
What can we say from his record? He is consistent, he has never won (or started) at 1400m, his one start on a slow track was not his best (albeit against very tough competition), he is drawn well (but hasn't really made the most of strong draws in the past, generally still overpowering fields). The main question is really around the 1400m, is this what he is aiming for, or will be be better with a couple of starts over more distance? He is talented and you have to give him a chance, maybe the domination of the Wellington Stakes is the race to go back and watch, but this is tougher and I am not sure I would take him at $4.60, but I certainly don't have the guts to leave him off the podium.
#11 Fleur de Lune (1)
Might she have finally found the form to get that Group 1 victory? four Group1 placings, including 3rd in this race last year. 1400m is ideal and she could have possibly improved from the Foxbridge run. It is hard to question her on any surface. Considering the runners between her and Mufhasa in 5 she should get a very sweet trip in behind a likely leader. If I had major concerns over Mufhasa this is where I would be looking.
#12 Guiseppina (17)
She had a great year last year, and will look to build on that this year. Always solid first up but usually better second up, she will need good ground to show her best. She is good under WFA conditions and will probably be running home well, she won a Group 1 last year from barrier 18, so don't rule her out on the draw.
#13 Art Beat (10)
Has to be considered on a wet track, but will the track improve too much and hurt her chances. I always liked this runner and she is coming off the biggest win of her career. She has had more success under handicap conditions and this just looks too tough.
#14 No Excuse Maggie (15)
Another local, who enjoys this distance and would be a chance if the track remains moist. She does tend to win after a few runs as evidenced by her performance last start at Otaki. She has not been as strong in conditions with a set weight. Her one Group 1 outing last year was solid, but there is a difference in class. The draw is not really a concern, she should be handy and able to get across relatively easy on Saturday.
#15 Innovation (18)
Rose quickly through the grades with good success over the winter, but didn't really match it with the classier 3YO's early in that year. None of those wins are really comparable to this race and the impressive winter cup was still under handicap conditions. She will be better off than some as a 4YO mare at 56.5kg, and another who is more likeable if the track remains slow, but there are others I prefer more...
#16 Xanadu (10)
... such as another 4YO mare, one which should be far more preferred. A heap of merit from the run in the Waikato, although she had won on a slow track she looked to get through that ground very nicely. 200m further will suit. A Group 1 3rd only four months ago, but she will carry an extra 2kg as a 4YO Saturday. She was great early at age 3 and could go well to start off her 4YO campaign.
#17 Baby Guinness (9)
She is a possible starter. I just wanted to quickly comment that I thought the run in the tron was actually pretty good, she looked to run on well into 5th then fade over the last 50m. That was the first start since the summer and she probably needed it after over-racing throughout. I don't think she is up to this class, but she is a solid performer who might be interesting in multiples.
The Picks
Winner: Mufhasa - If this race was run in April he would have been the clear favourite, I don't really see what has changed.
Second: Fleur de Lune - I actually like her for second, but I am worried about the FdL tax, this little known rule of nature which states she must never quite live up to expectations.
Third: Ocean Park - I really don't know, I don't think he is as good as Jimmy Choux was coming into this last year, and feel like 1600m will be better, but he is hard to leave out.
Fourth: The Hombre - I went back and forth with He's Remarkable and Green Supreme for this spot. I think the track will improve, but maybe not quite enough for the other two.
Friday 27 April 2012
Picking 6 this weekend at Te Rapa
What is it about raining Thursdays or Fridays this year? It makes it very difficult to make any kind of predictions about what might happen with remaining uncertainty over the potential track conditions. This time of year we see the return of a lot of winter runners, as well as summer runners finishing their run so it does really make a difference.
On initial glance this is a very difficult week to pick six, but with $250,000 on the table it is probably worth a shot.
Leg 1 - Race 4 - Rating 75 1200m
Hard to not include
#1 - A Keepa
Reason to Include
The most experienced 1200m horse in the field. Very close last time for fourth, steps back in rating and will have to carry more weight. Is consistent and well drawn.
Reason to leave out
The weight will be a factor, and the record at Te Rapa is also suspect, however has not run there since July and August of 2010, so there has been some time, overall he does seem to perform slightly better going right handed.
#2 - Baldovino
Reason to Include
He goes well fresh winning his first three starts before stepping up to Group 1 level earlier this season. Any rain should help improve his performance. The step back in class should suit, and the Te Rapa record is sound. The weight should not concern.
Reason to Leave out
Was early this season a flash in the pan?
#6 - Tango Terrific
Reason to include
Back after over a month off, that is a state in which he has performed well in the past. His last start was at rating 85 over 1400m at Ellerslie, he finished 7th, but he fought on well and really only faded over the last 150m. Has won over the distance.
Reason to leave out
Back in class so will carry significant more weight, he has only ever carried 58kg once for 7th. Has not run left handed a lot throughout his career.
Consider Including
#8 Lucy in Disguise
Reason to include
Super consistent runner. Will go well with a bit of moisture around. 3rd up, has won after a few starts before so should be ready. Last start winner who looked good in that race. 1200 record is strong.
Reason to leave out
This is tougher than the last victory, he will also carry an extra 2kg. She seems to have shown a lot of improvement into this preparation, so it is interesting to see if that will continue. Drawn barrier 15, not the best starter so could have a bit of extra work to do in this company.
#12 - Street Party
Reason to include
Was unlucky stepping up last start, was racing up in class prior to this. Back to 1200m which is an ideal distance and is well weighted here.
Reason to leave out
Barrier 19 will make things tough, she was drawn 14 four starts back and it was not ideal, so she may struggle here. The rain may make things difficult.
#14 - Cap Eden Roc
Reason to include
The overall record stands out, good over the distance, and if the surface is dead she has performed well.
Reason to leave out
Has struggled stepping up in class, she might be well backed but struggle here.
#3 - Prince of Wales
Reasons to Include
Will have his first start since boxing day 2010, he always goes well fresh. A very consistent runner, only once out of the first four. Should go well over 1200m although will potentially be searching for more distance.
Reason to leave out
A question over the long lay out, I also question the amount of weight he might carry here. Draw may make things a bit tough.
#9 - Sateka
Reasons to include
A well weighted mare who has been in good form recently.
Reason to leave out
This looks a big step up, this race contains some tough competition.
Leg 2 - Race 5 - 3YO Group 3 - 1200m
Hard not to include
#2 - Burgundy
Reason to include
A lot has been said about the win in the Mr Tiz Trophy last start, 1200m is going to suit this very classy runner. Possible anchor who wont worry about the conditions and is drawn to get an ideal run. He could overpower them.
Reason not to include
Watch the last start of Ginner Hart again, while that is not a reason not to include, it is a reason he may not be the perfect Anchor. He has been well backed a lot of times and not always proved himself worthy of the hype.
#1 - Ginner Hart
Reason to include
Was close to flawless last week against a tough field of more experienced runners. Dropping back to 1200m has suited well, he will handle all conditions well.
Reason not to include
He will carry the same set weight here, that is 3.5kg more than last week. You have to go back to early starts as a 2YO and 3YO since he has carried that and looked good.
Consider Including
#9 - Holy Moly
Reason to include
One of the best non winning performances of the year was her 3rd here in October, that was to Antonio Lombardo and Anabandana, while beating Artistic, Chicarita and Caiprinha. That was a long time ago, but she is classy at best. She has shown some of that in her last two starts. It looks like another run over 1200m will suit.
Reason to leave out
She tailed off quickly after a good start to the season against tougher competition.
#5 Golden Globe
Reason to include
Has been super consistent in a limited number of starts but has displayed potential. He has been freshened since November and has won in that state before. Looks like a pure sprinter and will not mind any rain.
Reason to Leave out
This seems like a step up in class, he will face some accomplished runners this weekend. Drawn wide, but will push forward so may negate that.
#3 Precision King
Reason to include
As consistent as he has been he has looked really good over his last couple of starts. He has been great over 1200m and on left handed tracks. He will handle the ground well.
Reason to leave out
He has seemed to get some interference or maybe just not started well the last couple of times from similar draws, he might try to push forward, but it looks like there are a few speedy runners which could make this a challenging task.
#4 - Casting Stones
Reason to include
Has won last two starts, consistent before that, looks like 1200m is ideal.
Reason to leave out
Drawn wide, is taking a step up in class, was pretty handily beaten he took on some of the better 3YO's in December and this is tougher.
Leg 3 - Race 6 - Open Handicap - 1600m
Hard to Leave out
#2 Alegrio
Reason to include
He didn't disappoint stepping up to Group 1 level with a solid and close 8th. 1600m is his best distance and he does go well at Te Rapa with a couple of wins.
Reason to leave out
The start before the Easter Handicap was less impressive, he will carry an extra 2kg here because of the relative drop in quality. Consistent early this year and has tailed off a bit, however has previously won several races after a number of starts.
#7 - Sum Up
Reason to include
Two races of note, the 6th in the Easter Handicap was strong, and the second in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was also notable.
Reason to leave out
There is a case to be made that more distance would better suit, however in this company over 1600m I think he will go well. The wide draw may concern, he has been pretty lucky with draws recently.
Consider Including
#1 - Indikator
Reason to include
Wasn't terrible when 8th second up last time, however he has won 5 times 3rd or 4th up, so he should be ready for this. 1600m is a distance he has won on and he showed it with a good finish last time. He will suit any track conditions.
Reason to leave out
He is probably searching for a bit more distance, he has not won over less than 2000m for some time now.
#3 Atom Cat
Reason to include
9th behind Alegrio in the Easter, but there was a gap. He might have had and excuse, he did come for them late, in a smaller field he may have ran closer. He will like some give in the track and has won 3rd up a couple of times. I thought he might give some cheek last time, maybe this is the time to watch out.
Reason to leave out
It has been a while between drinks, he has not been great of late. It feels like he should be racing in this class, but he has not been winning.
#5 Worthing
Reason to include
I always like a runner who performs of a track even when things are not going as well elsewhere. He was in better form the last couple of Te Rapa runs before the failure here this prep.
Reason to leave out
He has not been in the best form, you would be taking purely because of his preference for the track.
#15 Time Keeper
Reason to include
The run on Wednesday was very strong. Not sure if we can expect to see a run or not, but I suspect you may have to include if we do. Has won 3 in a row before, but each had a two week break.
Reason to leave out
This is a horse who gets better with running, but two in 4 days? and for a $40k Open race, what is the point? It will be interesting to see how Sir Slick 2.0 goes. By my count he has run 13 times with as little as a week between runs (5 weeks in a row at one point), he has only won 1 of those races.
Leg 4 - Race 7 - 3YO - 2000m (You are very happy if you are still alive right now)
Hard to Leave out
#3 Post D'France
Reason to include
Looks a great staying prospect as he has built to a strong win last start. This is slightly tougher, but he has always ran on well enough to indicate that 2000m+ is suitable.
Reason to leave out
Has not really been as consistent and this step up in class may be a concern.
#2 Red Shift
Reason to include
He has been freshened since decent performance in the Derby, back to 2000m and back in class, at a distance which would appear to suit against runners who are at his level. Now with Roger James who is having an outstanding run. One of those runners who always looks good before races, he is big and strong and should get better.
Reason to leave out
You could argue he is impossible to leave out. If you are going to leave him out possibly look to the 7th two starts back.
Consider including
#1 Dowager Queen
Reason to include
This consistent filly has been good without been outstanding since her return from Melbourne. She was freshened slightly before her last start and is now building up to more suitable distances. She will come for them and hit the line well, she will handle moisture in the track.
Reason to leave out
Leave out if you are not sure of the recent form. If you took away what she did in Melbourne she is probably hard to have here.
#7 Ryan John
Reason to include
Still a maiden, but probably improved for the 2000m start, that was actually at a higher grade, so he should be more suited to this. Pretty decent third on the track last start, locally trained.
Reason to leave out
Maiden runner, dead track may have concerned two starts back.
#9 Vittoria
Reason to include
Fourth in the Oaks in Victoria shows ability, she should improve with a couple of runs and more distance. The 9th last start was only 3 lengths back, not too bad.
Reason to leave out
Is a three length loss at rating 75 enough evidence that she will improve enough to win this, I am not so sure.
#6 Tiberius
Reason to include
Looks like an improving runner who will be suited to the rise in distance.
Reason to leave out
The rise in class might be the concern.
Leg 5 - Race 8 - F&M WFA Group 2 - 2000m (excitement building if you are still alive)
Hard to leave out
#1 Postmans Daughter
Reason to include
My pro Postmans Daughter bias will be exposed here, but I think she has been great all year. She proved it in the Easter, 1600m was short of ideal and she impressed for a very close second.2000m should be ideal. She has had two fourths at Open WFA level over this distance, both times beaten by the boys and Shez Sinsational/Scarlett Lady
Reason to leave out
While she was not far off at Te Aorah I thought she might be due for a break then she showed up in the Easter, but that was under a very light weight.
#3 Lady Kipling
Reason to include
Has beaten Postmans Daughter under these conditions. Not last time, but at Boxing day. Beat PD last start at equal weight over 1600m. 2000m is going to suit.Good record at Te Rapa.
Reason to leave out
Although capable, she has never won past 1600m.
Consider including
#16 Joy's Choice
Reason to include
3YO runners in WFA conditions are certainly tempting. She has looked good this year and has improved over more distance. 5th in the Oaks, and two good runs prior to that over 2000 and 2100m. She also seems to like Te Rapa
Reason to leave out
Despite going close a few times she has not won at this type of level. This is tough against the older runners.
#2 Floria
Reasons to include
Handled WFA conditions well when 6th in the Group 1. This is similar but longer. The added distance shouldn't be a massive issue.
Reasons to leave out
The race is quite similar to other races which have not resulted in success.
#5 Villify
Reason to include
I like more in the rain, but she looks like the step up to 2000m may be suitable. She has won here and the draw will be ideal.
Reason to leave out
Still looks more suitable to handicap conditions a this stage.
#9 Mini Pearl
Reason to include
Probably would not have been this high on her before her last start, however that was a pretty good win over this distance against decent competition. Seemed to be building well towards that point and scored a good victory.
Reason to leave out
Seems to be best on good tracks, and this is a big step up from recent starts.
Leg 6 - Race 9 - Rating 75 - 2400m
Hard to leave out
#7 Manhattan Mam
Reason to include
On the strength of that last victory. Was pretty good in the Oaks and has carried on well. More distance should suit.
Reason to leave out
Yet to succeed left handed. Both wins have been on good tracks.
Consider including
#4 Gold Cape
Reason to include
Dropping back in class from a good 4th in a strong race over 2000m where she fought well. 2400m looks like a distance which will be suitable.
Reason to leave out
Yet to win over 2400m and will actually carry more weight than last start here.
#8 Bob Valdez
Reason to include
Strong winner here two starts ago, looked like there was more to give. Has been pretty consistent if you throw out the wet track results.
Reason to leave out
If the track is worse than dead or if it has been chopped up by this late race (of course you will have already made this bet by then)
#3 Stingray
Reason to include
Consistent, beat Bob Valdez last time out. Has recently shown strong finishes, 2400m should suit.
Reason to leave out
Stepping up in grade, distance, and not really getting a lot of weight relief.
#5 Runaway Bride
Reason to include
Look at the odds she has paid this prep, even after winning 2 in a row she was still paying massive odds, she looks like one who is always over looked. 2400m should suit now.
Reason to leave out
Leave out if you don't believe this current form swing, she has been overlooked a lot recently.
How to play
It is a tough Pick 6 because there is no clear anchor, there are not even many legs where taking two would feel comfortable. Look at the last leg, what a mess, so I guess you have to consider weather you take a risk early and end up with five runners in the last leg, however there is no reason to have five runners when you are knocked out in the second leg.
Leg 1 - 1,2,6,8
Leg 2 - 1,2
Leg 3 - 2,7,1
Leg 4 - 2,3,7
Leg 5 - 1,3
Leg 6 - 7,4
That is 288 combinations, so maybe one to get together with some mates to try to get a percentage of it. If you want to go cheaper I would consider going only number 7 in the last as it is the anchor I am most comfortable with. I possibly would leave out number 7 in the fourth leg as well (or number 1 in the third), that would leave you with 96 combinations. I think we could get close to another jackpot for next week.
On initial glance this is a very difficult week to pick six, but with $250,000 on the table it is probably worth a shot.
Leg 1 - Race 4 - Rating 75 1200m
Hard to not include
#1 - A Keepa
Reason to Include
The most experienced 1200m horse in the field. Very close last time for fourth, steps back in rating and will have to carry more weight. Is consistent and well drawn.
Reason to leave out
The weight will be a factor, and the record at Te Rapa is also suspect, however has not run there since July and August of 2010, so there has been some time, overall he does seem to perform slightly better going right handed.
#2 - Baldovino
Reason to Include
He goes well fresh winning his first three starts before stepping up to Group 1 level earlier this season. Any rain should help improve his performance. The step back in class should suit, and the Te Rapa record is sound. The weight should not concern.
Reason to Leave out
Was early this season a flash in the pan?
#6 - Tango Terrific
Reason to include
Back after over a month off, that is a state in which he has performed well in the past. His last start was at rating 85 over 1400m at Ellerslie, he finished 7th, but he fought on well and really only faded over the last 150m. Has won over the distance.
Reason to leave out
Back in class so will carry significant more weight, he has only ever carried 58kg once for 7th. Has not run left handed a lot throughout his career.
Consider Including
#8 Lucy in Disguise
Reason to include
Super consistent runner. Will go well with a bit of moisture around. 3rd up, has won after a few starts before so should be ready. Last start winner who looked good in that race. 1200 record is strong.
Reason to leave out
This is tougher than the last victory, he will also carry an extra 2kg. She seems to have shown a lot of improvement into this preparation, so it is interesting to see if that will continue. Drawn barrier 15, not the best starter so could have a bit of extra work to do in this company.
#12 - Street Party
Reason to include
Was unlucky stepping up last start, was racing up in class prior to this. Back to 1200m which is an ideal distance and is well weighted here.
Reason to leave out
Barrier 19 will make things tough, she was drawn 14 four starts back and it was not ideal, so she may struggle here. The rain may make things difficult.
#14 - Cap Eden Roc
Reason to include
The overall record stands out, good over the distance, and if the surface is dead she has performed well.
Reason to leave out
Has struggled stepping up in class, she might be well backed but struggle here.
#3 - Prince of Wales
Reasons to Include
Will have his first start since boxing day 2010, he always goes well fresh. A very consistent runner, only once out of the first four. Should go well over 1200m although will potentially be searching for more distance.
Reason to leave out
A question over the long lay out, I also question the amount of weight he might carry here. Draw may make things a bit tough.
#9 - Sateka
Reasons to include
A well weighted mare who has been in good form recently.
Reason to leave out
This looks a big step up, this race contains some tough competition.
Leg 2 - Race 5 - 3YO Group 3 - 1200m
Hard not to include
#2 - Burgundy
Reason to include
A lot has been said about the win in the Mr Tiz Trophy last start, 1200m is going to suit this very classy runner. Possible anchor who wont worry about the conditions and is drawn to get an ideal run. He could overpower them.
Reason not to include
Watch the last start of Ginner Hart again, while that is not a reason not to include, it is a reason he may not be the perfect Anchor. He has been well backed a lot of times and not always proved himself worthy of the hype.
#1 - Ginner Hart
Reason to include
Was close to flawless last week against a tough field of more experienced runners. Dropping back to 1200m has suited well, he will handle all conditions well.
Reason not to include
He will carry the same set weight here, that is 3.5kg more than last week. You have to go back to early starts as a 2YO and 3YO since he has carried that and looked good.
Consider Including
#9 - Holy Moly
Reason to include
One of the best non winning performances of the year was her 3rd here in October, that was to Antonio Lombardo and Anabandana, while beating Artistic, Chicarita and Caiprinha. That was a long time ago, but she is classy at best. She has shown some of that in her last two starts. It looks like another run over 1200m will suit.
Reason to leave out
She tailed off quickly after a good start to the season against tougher competition.
#5 Golden Globe
Reason to include
Has been super consistent in a limited number of starts but has displayed potential. He has been freshened since November and has won in that state before. Looks like a pure sprinter and will not mind any rain.
Reason to Leave out
This seems like a step up in class, he will face some accomplished runners this weekend. Drawn wide, but will push forward so may negate that.
#3 Precision King
Reason to include
As consistent as he has been he has looked really good over his last couple of starts. He has been great over 1200m and on left handed tracks. He will handle the ground well.
Reason to leave out
He has seemed to get some interference or maybe just not started well the last couple of times from similar draws, he might try to push forward, but it looks like there are a few speedy runners which could make this a challenging task.
#4 - Casting Stones
Reason to include
Has won last two starts, consistent before that, looks like 1200m is ideal.
Reason to leave out
Drawn wide, is taking a step up in class, was pretty handily beaten he took on some of the better 3YO's in December and this is tougher.
Leg 3 - Race 6 - Open Handicap - 1600m
Hard to Leave out
#2 Alegrio
Reason to include
He didn't disappoint stepping up to Group 1 level with a solid and close 8th. 1600m is his best distance and he does go well at Te Rapa with a couple of wins.
Reason to leave out
The start before the Easter Handicap was less impressive, he will carry an extra 2kg here because of the relative drop in quality. Consistent early this year and has tailed off a bit, however has previously won several races after a number of starts.
#7 - Sum Up
Reason to include
Two races of note, the 6th in the Easter Handicap was strong, and the second in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was also notable.
Reason to leave out
There is a case to be made that more distance would better suit, however in this company over 1600m I think he will go well. The wide draw may concern, he has been pretty lucky with draws recently.
Consider Including
#1 - Indikator
Reason to include
Wasn't terrible when 8th second up last time, however he has won 5 times 3rd or 4th up, so he should be ready for this. 1600m is a distance he has won on and he showed it with a good finish last time. He will suit any track conditions.
Reason to leave out
He is probably searching for a bit more distance, he has not won over less than 2000m for some time now.
#3 Atom Cat
Reason to include
9th behind Alegrio in the Easter, but there was a gap. He might have had and excuse, he did come for them late, in a smaller field he may have ran closer. He will like some give in the track and has won 3rd up a couple of times. I thought he might give some cheek last time, maybe this is the time to watch out.
Reason to leave out
It has been a while between drinks, he has not been great of late. It feels like he should be racing in this class, but he has not been winning.
#5 Worthing
Reason to include
I always like a runner who performs of a track even when things are not going as well elsewhere. He was in better form the last couple of Te Rapa runs before the failure here this prep.
Reason to leave out
He has not been in the best form, you would be taking purely because of his preference for the track.
#15 Time Keeper
Reason to include
The run on Wednesday was very strong. Not sure if we can expect to see a run or not, but I suspect you may have to include if we do. Has won 3 in a row before, but each had a two week break.
Reason to leave out
This is a horse who gets better with running, but two in 4 days? and for a $40k Open race, what is the point? It will be interesting to see how Sir Slick 2.0 goes. By my count he has run 13 times with as little as a week between runs (5 weeks in a row at one point), he has only won 1 of those races.
Leg 4 - Race 7 - 3YO - 2000m (You are very happy if you are still alive right now)
Hard to Leave out
#3 Post D'France
Reason to include
Looks a great staying prospect as he has built to a strong win last start. This is slightly tougher, but he has always ran on well enough to indicate that 2000m+ is suitable.
Reason to leave out
Has not really been as consistent and this step up in class may be a concern.
#2 Red Shift
Reason to include
He has been freshened since decent performance in the Derby, back to 2000m and back in class, at a distance which would appear to suit against runners who are at his level. Now with Roger James who is having an outstanding run. One of those runners who always looks good before races, he is big and strong and should get better.
Reason to leave out
You could argue he is impossible to leave out. If you are going to leave him out possibly look to the 7th two starts back.
Consider including
#1 Dowager Queen
Reason to include
This consistent filly has been good without been outstanding since her return from Melbourne. She was freshened slightly before her last start and is now building up to more suitable distances. She will come for them and hit the line well, she will handle moisture in the track.
Reason to leave out
Leave out if you are not sure of the recent form. If you took away what she did in Melbourne she is probably hard to have here.
#7 Ryan John
Reason to include
Still a maiden, but probably improved for the 2000m start, that was actually at a higher grade, so he should be more suited to this. Pretty decent third on the track last start, locally trained.
Reason to leave out
Maiden runner, dead track may have concerned two starts back.
#9 Vittoria
Reason to include
Fourth in the Oaks in Victoria shows ability, she should improve with a couple of runs and more distance. The 9th last start was only 3 lengths back, not too bad.
Reason to leave out
Is a three length loss at rating 75 enough evidence that she will improve enough to win this, I am not so sure.
#6 Tiberius
Reason to include
Looks like an improving runner who will be suited to the rise in distance.
Reason to leave out
The rise in class might be the concern.
Leg 5 - Race 8 - F&M WFA Group 2 - 2000m (excitement building if you are still alive)
Hard to leave out
#1 Postmans Daughter
Reason to include
My pro Postmans Daughter bias will be exposed here, but I think she has been great all year. She proved it in the Easter, 1600m was short of ideal and she impressed for a very close second.2000m should be ideal. She has had two fourths at Open WFA level over this distance, both times beaten by the boys and Shez Sinsational/Scarlett Lady
Reason to leave out
While she was not far off at Te Aorah I thought she might be due for a break then she showed up in the Easter, but that was under a very light weight.
#3 Lady Kipling
Reason to include
Has beaten Postmans Daughter under these conditions. Not last time, but at Boxing day. Beat PD last start at equal weight over 1600m. 2000m is going to suit.Good record at Te Rapa.
Reason to leave out
Although capable, she has never won past 1600m.
Consider including
#16 Joy's Choice
Reason to include
3YO runners in WFA conditions are certainly tempting. She has looked good this year and has improved over more distance. 5th in the Oaks, and two good runs prior to that over 2000 and 2100m. She also seems to like Te Rapa
Reason to leave out
Despite going close a few times she has not won at this type of level. This is tough against the older runners.
#2 Floria
Reasons to include
Handled WFA conditions well when 6th in the Group 1. This is similar but longer. The added distance shouldn't be a massive issue.
Reasons to leave out
The race is quite similar to other races which have not resulted in success.
#5 Villify
Reason to include
I like more in the rain, but she looks like the step up to 2000m may be suitable. She has won here and the draw will be ideal.
Reason to leave out
Still looks more suitable to handicap conditions a this stage.
#9 Mini Pearl
Reason to include
Probably would not have been this high on her before her last start, however that was a pretty good win over this distance against decent competition. Seemed to be building well towards that point and scored a good victory.
Reason to leave out
Seems to be best on good tracks, and this is a big step up from recent starts.
Leg 6 - Race 9 - Rating 75 - 2400m
Hard to leave out
#7 Manhattan Mam
Reason to include
On the strength of that last victory. Was pretty good in the Oaks and has carried on well. More distance should suit.
Reason to leave out
Yet to succeed left handed. Both wins have been on good tracks.
Consider including
#4 Gold Cape
Reason to include
Dropping back in class from a good 4th in a strong race over 2000m where she fought well. 2400m looks like a distance which will be suitable.
Reason to leave out
Yet to win over 2400m and will actually carry more weight than last start here.
#8 Bob Valdez
Reason to include
Strong winner here two starts ago, looked like there was more to give. Has been pretty consistent if you throw out the wet track results.
Reason to leave out
If the track is worse than dead or if it has been chopped up by this late race (of course you will have already made this bet by then)
#3 Stingray
Reason to include
Consistent, beat Bob Valdez last time out. Has recently shown strong finishes, 2400m should suit.
Reason to leave out
Stepping up in grade, distance, and not really getting a lot of weight relief.
#5 Runaway Bride
Reason to include
Look at the odds she has paid this prep, even after winning 2 in a row she was still paying massive odds, she looks like one who is always over looked. 2400m should suit now.
Reason to leave out
Leave out if you don't believe this current form swing, she has been overlooked a lot recently.
How to play
It is a tough Pick 6 because there is no clear anchor, there are not even many legs where taking two would feel comfortable. Look at the last leg, what a mess, so I guess you have to consider weather you take a risk early and end up with five runners in the last leg, however there is no reason to have five runners when you are knocked out in the second leg.
Leg 1 - 1,2,6,8
Leg 2 - 1,2
Leg 3 - 2,7,1
Leg 4 - 2,3,7
Leg 5 - 1,3
Leg 6 - 7,4
That is 288 combinations, so maybe one to get together with some mates to try to get a percentage of it. If you want to go cheaper I would consider going only number 7 in the last as it is the anchor I am most comfortable with. I possibly would leave out number 7 in the fourth leg as well (or number 1 in the third), that would leave you with 96 combinations. I think we could get close to another jackpot for next week.
Friday 20 April 2012
April Edition 3YO Power Rankings
I wanted to wait for the Australian Derby before preparing this version of the power rankings in the hope that there was not question over number one, despite a strong effort Silent Achiever ran a close up 6th. That looked like a two horse race heading in but Laser Hawk finished third. That may be the end of the season for the New Zealand Derby winner, she will have earned a rest whenever that comes and I look forward to seeing her again in the Spring.
Roger James would have been disappointed with that result. I am sure that he, like many others, thought she had what it took to win that race, however the day was not bad overall for Roger James as he uncovered a potential Oaks contender with Full of Spirit getting it done at Group 3 level with James McDonald on board in the 2000m Patinak Farm Adrian Knox Stakes. Full of Spirit is currently second favourite in a small field for this weekends Australian Oaks. The 3YO daughter of Flying Spur has come out of the woodwork recently, after winning on debut, she finished 7th in both the 1000 Guineas and the strong Eight Carat Classic, and continued to improve before winning her last start before the trip to Sydney.
The last edition of the Power Rankings came out following the Derby, but prior to the Oaks. Given the strength of that race it should have and effect on these rankings. We should also get a good sight of some of these runners over the Winter as it has been confirmed that at least Artistic, and Nashville will be heading to Queensland, and likely other top contenders too.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Knights Tour (7), Antonio Lombardo (10)
Honourable Mention
Chicharita (HM, I see she is in Australia, it will be interesting to see how she goes), Knight's Tour (7, hopefully he ends up in Australia, I know I read about that as a potential plan when he first injured himself), Capital Diamond (HM), Xanadu, Duckworth Lewis (HM), Travolta (HM), Joy's Choice(HM), Nashville (HM, and another off to Australia), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Poste Restante, Glad (HM)
Number 10 - Quintessential (HM) - Toss up between this filly and Xanadu for this last spot. Both were third in a Group 1 last start, both races included impressive fields, but I think her performance in the Oaks and overall season is just stronger.
Number 9 - Burgundy (7) - Really looking forward to seeing him when he next races. I think he has now found his niche around the sprint distances. He has all the talent as we saw early in his career and hopefully he will continue to improve at age 4.
Number 8 - Full of Spirit (N/A) - A bit of hype around this runner, a Group 3 in Australia is an accomplishment, she will really climb these chats with a win in the Oaks.
Number 7 - Carrick (5) - I have not read what the plan is for this Derby place getter, I don't see him on the list of exported horses, so I assume he is having some time off in New Zealand at this point.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (3) - Still not sure the Jockey change for the Oaks was the wisest choice, however I do feel that she was somewhat unlucky in that race and had to expend all of that energy early.
Number 5 - Rock'n'Pop (2) - I look forward to seeing him continue at age four in Australia. He looks such a strong colt, I am not quite sure what his niche will be because he has shown so much talent over all distances so far.
Number 4 - Ocean Park (9) - Unlucky year, was the derby favourite until withdrawal because of track uncertainty. Backed up that decision with a bold second in Sydney only to strike more bad luck leading into the Australian Derby. He appears a very strong 3YO and will possibly continue to age four. Not sure what his targets might be but I imagine he can put on a show in a race like the Windsor Park Plate over 1600m if he ends up there.
Number 3 - Zurella (4) - Out performed my expectations in the Oaks, but combined with a strong derby she is well deserving of a position this high on this list.
Number 2 - Artistic (6) - What is a bigger accomplishment, winning the Oaks or running second in a Group 1 in Australia? I already had her ahead of Ocean Park so she deserves to stay here. She has really built well over the season, she has been super consistent, and she seems to be getting better over more distance, she will be a threat in Queensland.
Number 1 - Silent Achiever (1) - A strong third in the Rosehill Guineas where I feel she was actually a tad unlucky in the big field they assembled. Her 6th in the Australian Guineas is disappointing from the perspective that she was favourite, but ordinarily is still an achievement (didn't Jimmy Choux run 6th in that race last year?)
Roger James would have been disappointed with that result. I am sure that he, like many others, thought she had what it took to win that race, however the day was not bad overall for Roger James as he uncovered a potential Oaks contender with Full of Spirit getting it done at Group 3 level with James McDonald on board in the 2000m Patinak Farm Adrian Knox Stakes. Full of Spirit is currently second favourite in a small field for this weekends Australian Oaks. The 3YO daughter of Flying Spur has come out of the woodwork recently, after winning on debut, she finished 7th in both the 1000 Guineas and the strong Eight Carat Classic, and continued to improve before winning her last start before the trip to Sydney.
The last edition of the Power Rankings came out following the Derby, but prior to the Oaks. Given the strength of that race it should have and effect on these rankings. We should also get a good sight of some of these runners over the Winter as it has been confirmed that at least Artistic, and Nashville will be heading to Queensland, and likely other top contenders too.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings:
Knights Tour (7), Antonio Lombardo (10)
Honourable Mention
Chicharita (HM, I see she is in Australia, it will be interesting to see how she goes), Knight's Tour (7, hopefully he ends up in Australia, I know I read about that as a potential plan when he first injured himself), Capital Diamond (HM), Xanadu, Duckworth Lewis (HM), Travolta (HM), Joy's Choice(HM), Nashville (HM, and another off to Australia), Shuka (HM, always HM), St Yazin, Poste Restante, Glad (HM)
Number 10 - Quintessential (HM) - Toss up between this filly and Xanadu for this last spot. Both were third in a Group 1 last start, both races included impressive fields, but I think her performance in the Oaks and overall season is just stronger.
Number 9 - Burgundy (7) - Really looking forward to seeing him when he next races. I think he has now found his niche around the sprint distances. He has all the talent as we saw early in his career and hopefully he will continue to improve at age 4.
Number 8 - Full of Spirit (N/A) - A bit of hype around this runner, a Group 3 in Australia is an accomplishment, she will really climb these chats with a win in the Oaks.
Number 7 - Carrick (5) - I have not read what the plan is for this Derby place getter, I don't see him on the list of exported horses, so I assume he is having some time off in New Zealand at this point.
Number 6 - Planet Rock (3) - Still not sure the Jockey change for the Oaks was the wisest choice, however I do feel that she was somewhat unlucky in that race and had to expend all of that energy early.
Number 5 - Rock'n'Pop (2) - I look forward to seeing him continue at age four in Australia. He looks such a strong colt, I am not quite sure what his niche will be because he has shown so much talent over all distances so far.
Number 4 - Ocean Park (9) - Unlucky year, was the derby favourite until withdrawal because of track uncertainty. Backed up that decision with a bold second in Sydney only to strike more bad luck leading into the Australian Derby. He appears a very strong 3YO and will possibly continue to age four. Not sure what his targets might be but I imagine he can put on a show in a race like the Windsor Park Plate over 1600m if he ends up there.
Number 3 - Zurella (4) - Out performed my expectations in the Oaks, but combined with a strong derby she is well deserving of a position this high on this list.
Number 2 - Artistic (6) - What is a bigger accomplishment, winning the Oaks or running second in a Group 1 in Australia? I already had her ahead of Ocean Park so she deserves to stay here. She has really built well over the season, she has been super consistent, and she seems to be getting better over more distance, she will be a threat in Queensland.
Number 1 - Silent Achiever (1) - A strong third in the Rosehill Guineas where I feel she was actually a tad unlucky in the big field they assembled. Her 6th in the Australian Guineas is disappointing from the perspective that she was favourite, but ordinarily is still an achievement (didn't Jimmy Choux run 6th in that race last year?)
Thursday 12 April 2012
Can Jimmy Choux win the Easter Handicap?
We approach the final Group 1 of the season with the same favourite as we approached the first Group 1 of the season. Veyron has had a great year, but if he was to carry the same weight as Jimmy Choux I don't think this would be a debate, Green Supreme was great a couple of weeks ago but is not yet at the class of these other two. The handicap conditions make this race very competitive and as you scroll down the list of nominees you see a lot of runners at their respective weight who can be competitive. The draw has made this race interesting, as had the threat of rain (I am going to try to avoid making a weather prediction this week, as most weeks I am wrong).
All things been equal Jimmy Choux wins this race. Critics will point to his first up record, but his last fresh start was a close second behind Mufhasa at Group 1 level, this fresh start may be slightly different because of his upcoming trip to Australia and this may be just a run to shake off the cobwebs and get him ready for those races. I don't think any ground will be an issue for Jimmy Choux, he has drawn 10, which is not a concern.
Veyron has had a great year, he will carry 2kg less than Jimmy Choux, he was a close second behind Scarlett Lady last start (who would have been considered by many on par with JC last spring before her injury). This was shaping up like a great race as Veyron also can handle all conditions, he has a fantastic record at Ellerslie, loves 1600m, goes very well after a bit of freshening. If the 2kg penalty was not enough to make you consider these two equal the barrier draw has really worked against Veyron and brings things back towards Jimmy Choux's favour.
Green Supreme is the other candidate with great potential. He won easily over 1400m last start and will take on the extra 200m here. He looked very good building up over ground before his 6th in the Wellington Cup. His 1600m and Auckland records and sound, and he has won twice on slow tracks. The handicap conditions will give him 55kg to carry which is only 500 grams more than he carried to victory last start. How good is he relative to Jimmy and Veyron is the big unknown. He has won carrying more at lower grades over the past couple of months, he has quickly risen through the grades and is suited to these Open handicap conditions, he is very well drawn to be a major factor.
There are two other runners backing up from last weeks Group 1, the handicap conditions should suit both Postman's Daughter and Fleur de Lune. Fleur de Lune was very close to a win last week, and has secured a good draw in this big field. Postman's Daughter will be .5kg better off this week in weight relative to FdL, who will carry 2.5kg less that the set weight from last week. Postman's Daughter was consistent before her 8th last week and might be ready for a break, Fleur de Lune seems to be coming on and should be well set for this despite the run last week. A little softness underfoot should not concern either runner, FdL goes better at Ellerslie. Both are contenders here, but Fleur de Lune is the better of the two, I am still not sure she will be able to better Green Supreme given the similar weights the two will carry.
Vonusti is the other Group 1 winner in the race (Unless Time Keeper makes it in), he is not really in that Group 1 form, and has not really been as consistent since Boxing Day. The distance he has run over has gone up and down over the last few months, he is pretty well weighted at 55.5kg and should be set for 1600m right now, he is always a danger at Ellerslie.
Others who stand out include Justanexcuse who seems to be getting back to close to his best form. He has been carrying significantly more since the Coupland's Mile which was a comparable weight. Most of his experience is going left but he did win well under a big weight last start. Might be one for odds if the rain comes. He meets Green Supreme relatively 1kg better off than when the two met last with Green Supreme winning by 1 length, is that enough to make this interesting?
It has been about 18 months since Atom Cat won his last race. However he might be worth considering if the conditions take a turn down. He enjoys Ellerslie, has a cosy barrier 4th draw, and has a decent 2nd up record. Actually most of Atom Cat's victories have come early in campaigns, so the resuming 4th possibly showed some promise as it relates to this race. He is carrying 53.5kg in this field which is a very significant light weight.
Of the Richard Collett trained runners I am leaning towards Riotous, he has a weight advantage over his stablemate Alegrio and is drawn better to really compete. Both have similar Ellerslie records, and I imagine that if it is wet the weight advantage should equalise them. I really enjoyed the win here last start, I would stay away if wet, but 52kg compares well to the second here during Auckland Cup week.
Steel Giant is a pretty good horse to only carry 52kg here. A course and distance win on a rain effected track was decent but the field was ripped up with scratchings that day. I wouldn't consider him on a wet track, the draw is a put off and at weights Justanexcuse is effectively dropping the same amount after beating him soundly last start.
Sum Up has been pretty good this season. 1600m is probably short of his best distance, but at weight on a wet track might give some value. This would be by far the biggest win of his career, but he has gone close in decent races and was not a disgrace at Group 1 level. He likes it right handed and recent performances at Ellerslie have shown merit.
Jetset Lad was another I liked, but was put off by the draw. 1600m should really suit, he can factor, but I cant see him winning.
When it comes down to making picks I really think it will depend on how fit Jimmy Choux is and how he will carry that big weight. I think he is better here than Veyron because of Veyron's draw, the next biggest threat is Green Supreme (considering I think he is more suited than Fleur de Lune), I am simply not sure how to compare these two runners. Overall record there is no comparison, at the same weight I would like Jimmy all day. In regard to Green Supreme he has still not really faced a challenge on this level, his next biggest challenge was the Wellington Cup recently, before this it was at 3rd at Group 1 level at age 3, although he has been winning fairly handily this prep, the field he will face on Saturday is very strong. He beat a number of runners here last start, but I still feel like despite the Jimmy Choux question marks I have to look his way in this race, he has been there before and is a proven commodity.
First - Jimmy Choux
Second - Green Supreme
Third - Veyron - He is in great form and loves Ellerslie
Fourth - Atom Cat - I like him more if the rain comes.
All things been equal Jimmy Choux wins this race. Critics will point to his first up record, but his last fresh start was a close second behind Mufhasa at Group 1 level, this fresh start may be slightly different because of his upcoming trip to Australia and this may be just a run to shake off the cobwebs and get him ready for those races. I don't think any ground will be an issue for Jimmy Choux, he has drawn 10, which is not a concern.
Veyron has had a great year, he will carry 2kg less than Jimmy Choux, he was a close second behind Scarlett Lady last start (who would have been considered by many on par with JC last spring before her injury). This was shaping up like a great race as Veyron also can handle all conditions, he has a fantastic record at Ellerslie, loves 1600m, goes very well after a bit of freshening. If the 2kg penalty was not enough to make you consider these two equal the barrier draw has really worked against Veyron and brings things back towards Jimmy Choux's favour.
Green Supreme is the other candidate with great potential. He won easily over 1400m last start and will take on the extra 200m here. He looked very good building up over ground before his 6th in the Wellington Cup. His 1600m and Auckland records and sound, and he has won twice on slow tracks. The handicap conditions will give him 55kg to carry which is only 500 grams more than he carried to victory last start. How good is he relative to Jimmy and Veyron is the big unknown. He has won carrying more at lower grades over the past couple of months, he has quickly risen through the grades and is suited to these Open handicap conditions, he is very well drawn to be a major factor.
There are two other runners backing up from last weeks Group 1, the handicap conditions should suit both Postman's Daughter and Fleur de Lune. Fleur de Lune was very close to a win last week, and has secured a good draw in this big field. Postman's Daughter will be .5kg better off this week in weight relative to FdL, who will carry 2.5kg less that the set weight from last week. Postman's Daughter was consistent before her 8th last week and might be ready for a break, Fleur de Lune seems to be coming on and should be well set for this despite the run last week. A little softness underfoot should not concern either runner, FdL goes better at Ellerslie. Both are contenders here, but Fleur de Lune is the better of the two, I am still not sure she will be able to better Green Supreme given the similar weights the two will carry.
Vonusti is the other Group 1 winner in the race (Unless Time Keeper makes it in), he is not really in that Group 1 form, and has not really been as consistent since Boxing Day. The distance he has run over has gone up and down over the last few months, he is pretty well weighted at 55.5kg and should be set for 1600m right now, he is always a danger at Ellerslie.
Others who stand out include Justanexcuse who seems to be getting back to close to his best form. He has been carrying significantly more since the Coupland's Mile which was a comparable weight. Most of his experience is going left but he did win well under a big weight last start. Might be one for odds if the rain comes. He meets Green Supreme relatively 1kg better off than when the two met last with Green Supreme winning by 1 length, is that enough to make this interesting?
It has been about 18 months since Atom Cat won his last race. However he might be worth considering if the conditions take a turn down. He enjoys Ellerslie, has a cosy barrier 4th draw, and has a decent 2nd up record. Actually most of Atom Cat's victories have come early in campaigns, so the resuming 4th possibly showed some promise as it relates to this race. He is carrying 53.5kg in this field which is a very significant light weight.
Of the Richard Collett trained runners I am leaning towards Riotous, he has a weight advantage over his stablemate Alegrio and is drawn better to really compete. Both have similar Ellerslie records, and I imagine that if it is wet the weight advantage should equalise them. I really enjoyed the win here last start, I would stay away if wet, but 52kg compares well to the second here during Auckland Cup week.
Steel Giant is a pretty good horse to only carry 52kg here. A course and distance win on a rain effected track was decent but the field was ripped up with scratchings that day. I wouldn't consider him on a wet track, the draw is a put off and at weights Justanexcuse is effectively dropping the same amount after beating him soundly last start.
Sum Up has been pretty good this season. 1600m is probably short of his best distance, but at weight on a wet track might give some value. This would be by far the biggest win of his career, but he has gone close in decent races and was not a disgrace at Group 1 level. He likes it right handed and recent performances at Ellerslie have shown merit.
Jetset Lad was another I liked, but was put off by the draw. 1600m should really suit, he can factor, but I cant see him winning.
When it comes down to making picks I really think it will depend on how fit Jimmy Choux is and how he will carry that big weight. I think he is better here than Veyron because of Veyron's draw, the next biggest threat is Green Supreme (considering I think he is more suited than Fleur de Lune), I am simply not sure how to compare these two runners. Overall record there is no comparison, at the same weight I would like Jimmy all day. In regard to Green Supreme he has still not really faced a challenge on this level, his next biggest challenge was the Wellington Cup recently, before this it was at 3rd at Group 1 level at age 3, although he has been winning fairly handily this prep, the field he will face on Saturday is very strong. He beat a number of runners here last start, but I still feel like despite the Jimmy Choux question marks I have to look his way in this race, he has been there before and is a proven commodity.
First - Jimmy Choux
Second - Green Supreme
Third - Veyron - He is in great form and loves Ellerslie
Fourth - Atom Cat - I like him more if the rain comes.
Thursday 5 April 2012
Are you ready for New Zealand's Weirdest Group 1
This Easter sees Group 1 Racing coming from New Zealand. No, it is not the Easter Handicap, that is the week after Easter for some inexplicable reason. We are going to be looking at Te Aroha for their sole Group 1 race the New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes.
This race is strange, so strap in. This is the only Fillies and Mares specific Group 1 race for those older that 3YO, and strange things occur.
Barinka won this race last year beating Smoulder and Fleur de Lune who both line up again on Saturday. That win was her first and only Group 1 success, she won paying somewhere in the $18 region. She was the most recent in a long line of somewhat unexpected winners of this race. Strange things happen, so don't be afraid to go a bit loose in your selections. Particularly when both those place getter's last year paid over $7. Fixed odds place betting could get a hammering this weekend.
This race features potential up-and-coming mares with bright futures ahead of them, it features older campaigners seeking a last shot at Group 1 success to maybe improve their value as a Broodmare, and other runners who are just in it because it is there.
Need more proof that it is a strange one, going back to 2010 we see another longer shot winner in Juice. She paid $17.60, she was also ridden by Hayden Tinsley, it was also her only Group 1 success. Culminate and Obsession were more favoured as they rounded out the Tirfecta.
Dane Juila was second favourite when breaking this longshot trend in 2009, she beat the favourite. It was her only Group 1 win in New Zealand and only her second overall.
2008 was a normal year for the Breeders Stakes, Special Mission won for James McDonald paying $17.30. Culminate ran her first second and Keepa Cruisin ran for third. You will be surprised to discover this was her only Group 1 win, with her form tailing off following this result starting with an 11th in the Easter Handicap a few weeks later.
In 2007 a mare by the name of Captivate won this race. She was loved by the punters (relatively) paying a only $15.60 for Sam Spratt.
Arlingtonboulevard broke away with Jason Waddell on board in 2006 to claim that years version of the Breeders Stakes, fortunately Salsa ran second and would have paid $19.5 for the win, so successful punters had to accept a small return of $14.70 for their efforts.
You will not believe what Rockabubble paid winning in 2005 when the race was held in March, only $8, making her the first of only two sub $10 winners in the past 7 running's of this race. She finished 18th and 17th respectively in her next two attempts at Group 1 level.
2004 saw Surprize Surprize paying $11.85 despite finishing second in this race in 2003.
The horse who beat Surprize Surprize was called Zirna and paid $8.95 when winning, Surprize Surprize paid a big $6.30 for the place which was not even as large as third placed Rodrigo Rose who paid $7.35 for her place, making that year another sizable trifecta.
Whatever you do, do not back this weekends winner to go the Breeders/Easter Handicap double, the 2002 Breeders Stakes winner finished 14th in the Easter Handicap is another of many not to perform in this next Group 1. Saint Cecile paid $13 winning in 2002. Remember I have not mentioned one winning favourite in the past 9 years of this race. This was actually Saint Cecile's second win in this race as the 2002 victory backed up her 2001 victory (and she still paid $13), for the record in 2001 she was paying, $8.95 and the race was only at Group 2 level that year.
Where does that leave us this year, in the past 10 years we have seen no favourites win, $5.60 (Dane Julia) was the shortest priced winner, only three other horses have won and paid under $10 in the past 10 outings. To give you an idea, in all of the Group 1 races so far this year, Distil, Artistic and Choice Bro are the only winners who paid more that $10, two of those are the most recent two Group 1's of the year. We have seen 5 winners paying $14.70 or more throughout the years (would have loved to round up to $15 then), that is half of the winners. There has been 1 back to back winner (not counting Hayden Tinsley riding back to back winners), and Culiminate has run second twice, also Surprize Surprize ran second and went one better the following year. The only 3YO Filly to win was Special Mission, there have been 6 4YO's to win in the last 10 years, 3 6YO's and the only 5YO was Saint Cecile winning her second time.
So who are the likely candidates to continue this strange run of winners this year? Who fits the profile we have just described? Actually just about all of them.
There are four runners paying less than $10 (Fleur de Lune, Lady Kipling, Say No More, and Xanadu), keep one handy in your multiples as that seems to be the trend).
Other than the emergencies there are six runners paying in excess of $20 (Platinum Princess, Do Ri Mi, No Excuse Maggie, Lady Chaparral, Jeu de Cartes, Acapela).
That leaves six runners in the sweet spot, Postmans Daughter ($12, seems pretty good value), Fazzle ($14), Dating ($14), Floria ($10), Villifye ($10), Smoulder ($16).
What are my selections based on absolutely no analysis other than the last 10 events?
Winner - Smoulder ($16) - in the sweet spot, also doubles as the horse who performed well in this race a year ago.
Second - Lady Kipling ($7.50) - shorter odds runner to go close
Third - Postmans Daughter ($12) - value runner rounding out the trifecta.
Fourth - Fleur de Lune ($6) - the favourite
Maybe it is better to look at this race with a bit more analysis, basically you can expect strange things to happen because there are a lot of chances, we have a big field, and there is not really a clear cut favourite. With the wet forecast for the weekend I am anticipating we will at least see a slow track.(Only the first four are listed in specific order)
Long Shot First Four Contenders
#7 Do Ra Mi (14) $31 & $9 - Hard to know what the best indication of form is, she has not seen a good track since September last year, it is unlikely she will see one this weekend either.
#13 Lady Chaparral (6) $26 & $8 - Not too many have beaten Mufhasa this season, she is one of them. Her form since has not been the strongest, however she has gone well in Te Aroha, her record at Tauranga was likely a factor in the victory over Mufhasa, but this looks too tough.
#14 Jeu de Cartes (21) $21 & $6.50 - The draw is tough on this track, she does seem to go well on rain effected tracks, she has stepped up in quality over her last few and just has not quite reached this level.
#15 Acapela (1) $21 & $6.50 - Good to see Jason Collett back riding. On paper this is a chance, decent form, well drawn, decent record in the wet, has been beginning to step up in quality. I just think the set weight of 57kg will hurt her chances and I like others more.
A first four chance
#12 No Excuse Maggie (7) $33 & $10 - I like this John Barry runner, she was great throughout the winter last prep. She has not really come back in the same form, but she is hard to rule out. She won 4th, 6th and 9th up last prep (4th up on Saturday), her first 3 starts leading into that were 5th, 8th and 7th, this is a much tougher fourth start. Record over 1600m and on wet tracks is good.
#10 Villifye (16) $10 & $3.40 - Looked great last start winning, will have to deal with a big increase in weight in this one, she will handle the rain and looked like an improving mare, but I like the look of others more.
#9 Say No More (20) $7.50 & $2.60 - Say no more is a group one winner this season. She got a sweet draw and trip on that occasion carrying only 52kg. This looks tougher with 57kgs to carry and a wide draw to deal with.
#2 Platinum Princess (12) $31 & $9 - She won the Coupland's Bakeries Mile last year and has a great 1600m record, she has just not really gone on since then in races carrying a set weight. Possibly the draw has not been great in a few of these, and this is similar to the race she won on New Year's day at Ellerslie.
Hard to leave out
#3 Fazzle (15) $14 & $4.50 - That last 200m scares me, she might have a lot of work to do from the draw. She has really come on well over 1400m, and if you knew she would get a decent trip she might be hard to avoid, but I think she will need some luck.
#6 Floria (11) $10 & $3.40 - This just looks like a step up, she will have to carry more weight and possibly deal with a wet track. She is consistent and hard to completely ignore.
#17 Xanadu (9) $7 & $2.50 - I will always have another look at a 3YO in this type of race with the weight allowance. I have been both impressed and disappointed with this filly this year. I think this field is similar to Ellerslie on Boxing Day, yes there are older horses, but there is enough class to make this tough on her.
#4 Dating (4) $14 & $4.50 - The more I looked at her the more I liked her chances. She is a tough omission and from the draw I thought she looked a great chance. I have left her out because she is so inconsistent. When she won that F&M race back in October it looked like she would have a great season, she has just been too up and down to take.
First Four
Fourth - #5 Fleur de Lune (3) $6 & 2 - A lot to like, can she break the favourtie jinx? Well drawn and seems to be back close to her best.
Third - #1 Postmans Daughter (10) $12 & $4 - A strong competitor, consistent and racing in tougher company. Seems to go back and forth in distance, 1600m two starts in a row carrying basically what she carried for second in handicap conditions last start.
Second - #8 Lady Kipling (8) $7.50 & $2.60 - Has had a great year competing gamely in much tougher races. 1600m should suit her, I do have a right handed concern, but she has not been too bad recently.
First - #11 Smoulder (5) $16 & $5 - To take her you need to completely forgive the Tauranga effort, she was favourite, she had a bad day. She has been very good the rest of the year, she possibly has not won as many races as you would like, but she has been consistent. She can bounce back from a good draw here. She fits a lot of the history of this race in recent years.
This race is strange, so strap in. This is the only Fillies and Mares specific Group 1 race for those older that 3YO, and strange things occur.
Barinka won this race last year beating Smoulder and Fleur de Lune who both line up again on Saturday. That win was her first and only Group 1 success, she won paying somewhere in the $18 region. She was the most recent in a long line of somewhat unexpected winners of this race. Strange things happen, so don't be afraid to go a bit loose in your selections. Particularly when both those place getter's last year paid over $7. Fixed odds place betting could get a hammering this weekend.
This race features potential up-and-coming mares with bright futures ahead of them, it features older campaigners seeking a last shot at Group 1 success to maybe improve their value as a Broodmare, and other runners who are just in it because it is there.
Need more proof that it is a strange one, going back to 2010 we see another longer shot winner in Juice. She paid $17.60, she was also ridden by Hayden Tinsley, it was also her only Group 1 success. Culminate and Obsession were more favoured as they rounded out the Tirfecta.
Dane Juila was second favourite when breaking this longshot trend in 2009, she beat the favourite. It was her only Group 1 win in New Zealand and only her second overall.
2008 was a normal year for the Breeders Stakes, Special Mission won for James McDonald paying $17.30. Culminate ran her first second and Keepa Cruisin ran for third. You will be surprised to discover this was her only Group 1 win, with her form tailing off following this result starting with an 11th in the Easter Handicap a few weeks later.
In 2007 a mare by the name of Captivate won this race. She was loved by the punters (relatively) paying a only $15.60 for Sam Spratt.
Arlingtonboulevard broke away with Jason Waddell on board in 2006 to claim that years version of the Breeders Stakes, fortunately Salsa ran second and would have paid $19.5 for the win, so successful punters had to accept a small return of $14.70 for their efforts.
You will not believe what Rockabubble paid winning in 2005 when the race was held in March, only $8, making her the first of only two sub $10 winners in the past 7 running's of this race. She finished 18th and 17th respectively in her next two attempts at Group 1 level.
2004 saw Surprize Surprize paying $11.85 despite finishing second in this race in 2003.
The horse who beat Surprize Surprize was called Zirna and paid $8.95 when winning, Surprize Surprize paid a big $6.30 for the place which was not even as large as third placed Rodrigo Rose who paid $7.35 for her place, making that year another sizable trifecta.
Whatever you do, do not back this weekends winner to go the Breeders/Easter Handicap double, the 2002 Breeders Stakes winner finished 14th in the Easter Handicap is another of many not to perform in this next Group 1. Saint Cecile paid $13 winning in 2002. Remember I have not mentioned one winning favourite in the past 9 years of this race. This was actually Saint Cecile's second win in this race as the 2002 victory backed up her 2001 victory (and she still paid $13), for the record in 2001 she was paying, $8.95 and the race was only at Group 2 level that year.
Where does that leave us this year, in the past 10 years we have seen no favourites win, $5.60 (Dane Julia) was the shortest priced winner, only three other horses have won and paid under $10 in the past 10 outings. To give you an idea, in all of the Group 1 races so far this year, Distil, Artistic and Choice Bro are the only winners who paid more that $10, two of those are the most recent two Group 1's of the year. We have seen 5 winners paying $14.70 or more throughout the years (would have loved to round up to $15 then), that is half of the winners. There has been 1 back to back winner (not counting Hayden Tinsley riding back to back winners), and Culiminate has run second twice, also Surprize Surprize ran second and went one better the following year. The only 3YO Filly to win was Special Mission, there have been 6 4YO's to win in the last 10 years, 3 6YO's and the only 5YO was Saint Cecile winning her second time.
So who are the likely candidates to continue this strange run of winners this year? Who fits the profile we have just described? Actually just about all of them.
There are four runners paying less than $10 (Fleur de Lune, Lady Kipling, Say No More, and Xanadu), keep one handy in your multiples as that seems to be the trend).
Other than the emergencies there are six runners paying in excess of $20 (Platinum Princess, Do Ri Mi, No Excuse Maggie, Lady Chaparral, Jeu de Cartes, Acapela).
That leaves six runners in the sweet spot, Postmans Daughter ($12, seems pretty good value), Fazzle ($14), Dating ($14), Floria ($10), Villifye ($10), Smoulder ($16).
What are my selections based on absolutely no analysis other than the last 10 events?
Winner - Smoulder ($16) - in the sweet spot, also doubles as the horse who performed well in this race a year ago.
Second - Lady Kipling ($7.50) - shorter odds runner to go close
Third - Postmans Daughter ($12) - value runner rounding out the trifecta.
Fourth - Fleur de Lune ($6) - the favourite
Maybe it is better to look at this race with a bit more analysis, basically you can expect strange things to happen because there are a lot of chances, we have a big field, and there is not really a clear cut favourite. With the wet forecast for the weekend I am anticipating we will at least see a slow track.(Only the first four are listed in specific order)
Long Shot First Four Contenders
#7 Do Ra Mi (14) $31 & $9 - Hard to know what the best indication of form is, she has not seen a good track since September last year, it is unlikely she will see one this weekend either.
#13 Lady Chaparral (6) $26 & $8 - Not too many have beaten Mufhasa this season, she is one of them. Her form since has not been the strongest, however she has gone well in Te Aroha, her record at Tauranga was likely a factor in the victory over Mufhasa, but this looks too tough.
#14 Jeu de Cartes (21) $21 & $6.50 - The draw is tough on this track, she does seem to go well on rain effected tracks, she has stepped up in quality over her last few and just has not quite reached this level.
#15 Acapela (1) $21 & $6.50 - Good to see Jason Collett back riding. On paper this is a chance, decent form, well drawn, decent record in the wet, has been beginning to step up in quality. I just think the set weight of 57kg will hurt her chances and I like others more.
A first four chance
#12 No Excuse Maggie (7) $33 & $10 - I like this John Barry runner, she was great throughout the winter last prep. She has not really come back in the same form, but she is hard to rule out. She won 4th, 6th and 9th up last prep (4th up on Saturday), her first 3 starts leading into that were 5th, 8th and 7th, this is a much tougher fourth start. Record over 1600m and on wet tracks is good.
#10 Villifye (16) $10 & $3.40 - Looked great last start winning, will have to deal with a big increase in weight in this one, she will handle the rain and looked like an improving mare, but I like the look of others more.
#9 Say No More (20) $7.50 & $2.60 - Say no more is a group one winner this season. She got a sweet draw and trip on that occasion carrying only 52kg. This looks tougher with 57kgs to carry and a wide draw to deal with.
#2 Platinum Princess (12) $31 & $9 - She won the Coupland's Bakeries Mile last year and has a great 1600m record, she has just not really gone on since then in races carrying a set weight. Possibly the draw has not been great in a few of these, and this is similar to the race she won on New Year's day at Ellerslie.
Hard to leave out
#3 Fazzle (15) $14 & $4.50 - That last 200m scares me, she might have a lot of work to do from the draw. She has really come on well over 1400m, and if you knew she would get a decent trip she might be hard to avoid, but I think she will need some luck.
#6 Floria (11) $10 & $3.40 - This just looks like a step up, she will have to carry more weight and possibly deal with a wet track. She is consistent and hard to completely ignore.
#17 Xanadu (9) $7 & $2.50 - I will always have another look at a 3YO in this type of race with the weight allowance. I have been both impressed and disappointed with this filly this year. I think this field is similar to Ellerslie on Boxing Day, yes there are older horses, but there is enough class to make this tough on her.
#4 Dating (4) $14 & $4.50 - The more I looked at her the more I liked her chances. She is a tough omission and from the draw I thought she looked a great chance. I have left her out because she is so inconsistent. When she won that F&M race back in October it looked like she would have a great season, she has just been too up and down to take.
First Four
Fourth - #5 Fleur de Lune (3) $6 & 2 - A lot to like, can she break the favourtie jinx? Well drawn and seems to be back close to her best.
Third - #1 Postmans Daughter (10) $12 & $4 - A strong competitor, consistent and racing in tougher company. Seems to go back and forth in distance, 1600m two starts in a row carrying basically what she carried for second in handicap conditions last start.
Second - #8 Lady Kipling (8) $7.50 & $2.60 - Has had a great year competing gamely in much tougher races. 1600m should suit her, I do have a right handed concern, but she has not been too bad recently.
First - #11 Smoulder (5) $16 & $5 - To take her you need to completely forgive the Tauranga effort, she was favourite, she had a bad day. She has been very good the rest of the year, she possibly has not won as many races as you would like, but she has been consistent. She can bounce back from a good draw here. She fits a lot of the history of this race in recent years.
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