They call it "the race that stops a nation". In reality it stops two, with New Zealand grinding to a halt slightly after five local time to watch this storied event. This year it feels like this race will stop many nations, with horses from France, England, Dubai, and Germany having legitimate shots to take away the Cup. In this preview I will count down from 24th to first who I think has the best chance to win the Melbourne Cup in 2011.
Sweepstake Reward Group
While you wouldn't be happy to see these names on your Sweep ticket you might get some reward if last place pays out.
24th - (19) Saptapadi - One win and $86k in winnings, this is a massive ask. Nowhere to be seen in the Caulfield Cup, eighth in the Herbert Power stakes which was not as strong as recent years. Watch this video, there is a lot of Melbourne Cup form on display.
23rd - (20) Shamrocker - Has just not been there this Spring. She placed in two Oaks
races last year and won a Derby, that type of pedigree would normally
indicate that two miles is a possibility, but recent performances have
been lacking.
22th - (8) Fox Hunt - He did win the German St Leger I have no idea how that translates to this. I think this is a bit too much of a step up.
Known Quantities
Horses we know a bit about but would find it hard to recommend.
21st - (13) Hawk Island - There was a lot to like in the Metrop run where he was wide and came at them well. However we probably needed to see more in the Caulfield Cup to seriously consider him here.
20th - (24) Older Than Time - She seems to have had a similar build up to this race as her build up to the Sydney Cup performance in April, the difference is that she has not had the same level of success in her build up for this race. It is hard to see her winning, but she is a horse who will see out the distance and will only carry 51kgs, $101 seems a bit over the odds, but this is a big ask.
19st - (7) Unusual Suspect - His Caulfield cup run was actually good which is why it is hard to have him this far down. He just didn't show enough leading up to that run to make me believe he will win this.
18th - (21) The Verminator - The Metrop winner will carry 52kg again on
Tuesday. Barrier four should suit and I imagine he could get a nice trip
behind Jukebox Jury and other runners coming from wide to challenge for
the lead. Although he is still only carrying 52kgs there are others here who
will get a lot more weight relief from past starts. He should give an
honest performance but might simply be running into better horses in this event.
Unknown Quantities
Hard to know what to expect from this group. These have not started in Australia.
17th - (16) Modun - Apparently was brought to win this race. Hard to see it this year. Consistent in eight starts. No indication of how he will suit the conditions, but he seems to go well fresh.
16th - (15) Lost in the Moment - Well drawn and has nice weight relief. He is a consistent runner who was in the mix in every race leading up to the Ebor. He has not had an Australian start so is another runner with a lot of unknowns. He is currently paying more with the bookmakers than his stablemate Modun despite more weight relief from that Ebor start.
Could go either way
These two horses should dictate how this race is run and can contend if they stay the distance.
15th - (23) Glass Harmonium - This will be his
third start in ten days. His connections will be wondering what could
have been in the Cox Plate after that strong run in the Mackinnon on
Saturday. He just looked like a strong racehorse in that performance, he
showed enough to indicate he could get the 3200m and he is another who
seems to pull out his best at Flemington. He will need to go forward
from the very wide barrier which is how he races anyway.
14th - (2) Jukebox Jury - If his Irish St Ledger run is anything to go by we will get a good show from this horse on Tuesday. He set a good pace and showed a lot of guts coming home. He will
have no problems with 3200m. However it is still hard to pick a winner
who has not yet started in Australia, until it happens I will stick to
horses who know the conditions.
Middle of the pack
Some definite contenders in this group.They will be vying for a share of the money and could turn some heads.
13th (12) Red Cadeaux - He looked beaten in the Irish St Ledger with 400m to go, but he kept finding extra and ran home strongly.
He has a number of starts over more distance, but that type of horse
doesn't always go well in this race. He seems to suit all conditions so
although he has not tested the Australian conditions in his build up he
could surprise.
12th - (6) Manighar - Finished off 2400m well in the Caulfield Cup. He
has gone a few consistent races recently without winning one. This is
tougher than that Caulfield start but he has merit.
11th - (17)At First Sight - Maybe flying slightly under the radar in this
field. He ran a strong close second to December Draw in September, was then
entered into six races and trials before actually starting one, in that start he ran second in the Bendigo cup. He broke the maiden ranks
in his second of his eleven starts and has not won another one since.
10th - (9) Lucas Cranach - While the fifth placing in the Caulfield Cup was not bad given where he spent most of the race, I did expect more from this highly rated horse. I think Lucas Cranach offers the biggest range of possible outcomes in this race, I think he could win, but I could also see him departing without firing a shot. I will predict a middle of the pack uninspiring performance. In early drafts of this I have had him as high as fifth and as low as fifteenth, I am just not sure what to expect. I know I am underrating this horse, but I keep comparing him to horses further up this list and I just can't move him up.
9th - (18) Moyenne Corniche - There was a lot to like from his run in the Ebor, that race contained a lot of form leading into this race.
He took a bit of time to wind up, but showed a good top speed when he
reached it, he finished off strongly enough over 2800m. The thing I like
about that run was the size of the field and the way he finished in
traffic, he will probably need that experience from barrier seventeen.
He has had a decent run in Melbourne to acclimatise so will be ready
for this. He will only carry 52kgs on Tuesday. He could win this. If he
goes well then the likes of Modun, Lost in the Moment, Saptapadi and Fox
hunt could also not be far behind. I initially had him further down the pack when drafting this list, but as I keep looking at this he keeps rising in my prediction, but race time tomorrow I might rate him in the top six or seven.
8th - (10) Mourayan - He was full of running at the end of the Mackinnon on Saturday, he has been carrying a lot more weight recently and racing with consistency. I am slightly worried about barrier fourteen as he might get caught in no mans land, he might need luck to find a nice place to sit in the pack.
The Bart Factor
7th -(11) Precedence - Cannot base this high rating on performances on the track. I am purely basing this prediction on this article. I know trainers are going to rate their horse a better chance than it really is in most cases, however you have got to respect Bart when it comes to these things. Tuesday could be a double win for Sir Patrick Hogan as he not only owns a share in Precedence but he owns Zabeel, who has already sired three Melbourne Cup winners and will be looking for a fourth.
Contenders
Have to be seriously considered winning chances
6th - (4) Drunken Sailor - I liked the Caulfield Cup run, he cut across the back of the pack from a wide barrier and was happy just to have a run along the rail. He showed a lot of patience and was unlucky as they bunched up not to get a run, things opened up at about the 300m mark and he ran on well. Barrier eight should see him more handy for a similar staying performance.
5th -(22) Tullamore - I am betting that the form coming out of the Moonee Valley Cup holds up on Tuesday. He also placed in the Caulfield Cup so he seems to be hitting form at a good time. His weight drops 5kgs from that solid chasing performance so you can expect him to be flying home in this.
4th - (14) Illo - He will carry 3.5kgs less than his last start in the Moonee Valley Cup. That was a good performance, he was caught wide and had to move forward, he seemed to hold on well to third and although Americain was getting away from him the weight reduction and a better trip from barrier one will be advantageous here. Bart Cummings has been training this German galloper, he brings strong form into this having won five races from fourteen starts and looks like he has been building up towards longer distances.
3rd - (23) Niwot - Seems to go very well at Flemington. The Lexus had a
very strong field and has been a good indicator of Melbourne Cup success
over the past few years. He is a stayer who wont be bothered by the
3200m having won over that distance at Flemington in the past, 51kgs
makes him look like a great lightweight chance.
Favourites
Should be in every multiple placed on the day it does feel a bit like a coin flip.
2nd - (1) Americain - The deserved favourite. He won here twelve months ago, he has started six times since that race, winning twice. There is no question around his form, he ran a comfortable race in the Moonee Valley Cup to win last start. Prior to his first start in Australia this prep his form was mixed, but this race would have been the target, he was in much better form leading into this race a year ago. He is carrying the top weight of 58kgs, the 3.5kg increase from last year is a question which needs to be asked, but he carried it well in his last start, over the past twelve months he has carried as much as 61kgs. Very few horses have won this race back to back, it has only happened five times, Americian is well placed to make it six.
The Winner
(3) Dunaden - A French Quinella? These horses have met twice in the past twelve months, Dunaden carried 2kgs less than Americain when they finished 9th and 10th respectively in August, Dunaden actually carried 1.5kgs more in April when he finished first and Americain 6th. This time Americain will carry 3.5kgs more, with Dunaden carrying 54.5kgs (incidentally, this what Americain carried winning this race last year). He won the Geelong Cup with a run that made the other horses appear to be standing still on the bend. They say that was not the best Geelong Cup field, however Tanby went on to win the Bendigo Cup the following week, Bauer was improving and shortened significantly with the bookmakers for this race following that performance, and Showcause was pretty strong all spring.
Condensing my thoughts in this manner has been an excellent way to understand how I feel about a lot of the runners. Reading through this again I definitely feel like most of this field has their claims and a case can be made for most of the twenty four runners. This is always a special race, this feels like a particularly strong field. I am pretty confident one of the French horses will come out on top, but I get the impression that we will have a few surprises in the next few horses home.
Monday 31 October 2011
Friday 28 October 2011
A look at the Derby Day Quaddie
With only four days to go until the Melbourne Cup people all over New Zealand are gearing up for the only horse race they watch all year. It is a particular shame this year because of the quality of horses coming out of New Zealand at the moment, local racing is well worth watching, there is also a number of quality horses which will be on show during Victoria Derby Day. I cannot remember a Melbourne Cup in recent times without a participant from New Zealand, and without a strong run from Booming or an outstanding performance from Showcause on Saturday at Derby Day there may not be one this year.
As much as the spectacle of the Melbourne Cup is exciting and amazing to see, Derby Day is the day of the Melbourne Cup carnival I tend to look forward to the most. Big races all day with quality fields, and this year there is a huge quaddie on offer. I believe because of the co-mingling of the pools this is also on offer to punters in New Zealand, but to be honest I have no idea how that works. As big as the pool for the quaddie this week it is also a very difficult one to select, so today I am hoping break down some of the chances in each race. I will then briefly look at some of the other big races on a great day of racing.
Quaddie Preview
Leg One - AAMI Victoria Derby
Hard to leave out
Manawanui - Can he stay? well I think he proved that with his performance in the AAMI Vase last weekend, it is hard to tell if he even got to top gear. He might be the closest thing to a Anchor we have, but with so many horses running anything can happen. Often at this stage in the career of a three year old it may not be the best stayer who wins this race but the best athlete, Manawanui certainly appears to have the talent.
Stangster - I watched his last start again to see what happened. He really had to make a move early, he had to travel three wide and at times he seemed wider around the bend, he got in the clear and unleashed his run. His run was early and he ran out of steam, but he still really had most of them beat. I am confident he will get the 2500m. His draw is comfortable and he should find himself somewhere in the middle of the pack. He is hard to leave out.
Induna - One of the few who has started at greater than 2000m more than once, he also has a start at 1900m, you have to believe the prep for this race has been good. The Geelong Classic run was impressive, he definitely looks up to this level.
Potential Quaddie Buster - for this purpose I will pick one who might be under the radar who could potentially spoil the quaddie (will only select horses paying over $20).
Cornell ($51) - Hard to see where he is going to make up the three plus lengths to Induna from the last time they met, however of the $20+ crowd he looks the most likely.
Value Bet
Sarbage ($15) - pretty good value on a runner who flew past Sangster last start.
Worth Considering
Collar
Perfect Punch
Niagara
Mr Chez
Leg Two - Myer Classic
Hard to leave out
More Joyous - If Manawanui wins the first leg and More Joyous the second there will be a lot of live units remaining. She had some sort of saddle problem prior to her last start, her price pushed out as people doubted this great mare, she became great value for a horse we know to be of top quality. During the running she was back and at times uncovered but once she hit top gear she really zoomed home, and while she didn't win by a lot she still crossed the finish line first. She has three wins from four over the mile so this distance will suit. Again, with a lot of chances in this race it is hard to recommend her as an anchor but depending on your Manawanui feelings she might be the next closest thing.
Lady Lynette - Has limited success on the track, but last two runs have been good. She goes well over the distance. I would have thought she was a better chance in this before disappointing two starts back. Before her win here she was fourth to Pinker Pinker and then third to Kings Rose and Pinker Pinker. Seems a bit over the odds at $21.
Mosheen - Form and at 49kgs there is a lot of get excited about. She is consistent and 1600m record has been proven. Looks like a great chance to upset the favourite.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Other than Lady Lynette.
Skyerush ($26)- Simply based on consistency it is hard not to consider her. She has proven herself over 1600m and it seems about right at this point in her prep.
Value Bet
Other than the two mentioned above there is good value around Guisepinna ($21) if she makes the field. Banchee for a place. Goon Serpent ($21) might be good value, but there is plenty of value in this race.
Worth Considering
It is possible to make a case for about three quarters of the field.
Leg Three - Salinger Stakes
This is where punters will have to go wide to take in a lot of runners.
Hard to leave out
Temple of Boom - Great record course and distance. Was very good last time. Only concern is the quality of the other runners and the draw.
Sister Madly - 1200m just suits this mare. Very good form at present, only losing to Sepoy and More Joyous in recent starts.
Curtana - Kept close enough to Sepoy last start to justify inclusion.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Only three paying greater than $20 in this close betting race. Hard to see any of them busting your quaddie here as there are eight runners paying between $4.50 and $13. However Black Piranah at $51 looks the best of the over $20 bunch, he has the class but maybe not quite the form over 1200m in recent times.
Value Bet
Temple of Boom is pretty good value, the market here looks pretty even maybe Curtana and Catapulted are slightly over too.
Worth Considering
Any of the mentioned runners in that group of Eight.
Neeson, Stirling Grove, and Catapulted look most likely to figure.
Leg Four - TAB.COM.AU Stakes
You will be doing very well if you are still alive for this one, but it is not any easier.
Hard to leave out
Doubtful Jack - Has first hand experience what it is like to see the rump of Black Caviar, but so does every other horse she has ever faced on a racetrack. Pretty good tune up run in a small field, consistent of late and loves Flemington.
Lunary - It is all falling into place to make it four from four at Flemington, loves 1400m and is brilliant second up. Barrier eight and 54kgs make this look like an outstanding chance.
Niblick - Another with strong C'n'D form. Also been good on the track recently, can do 53.5kg with ease, another to must include.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Largo Lad - Is another with form on the course and over the distance. He looks primed to put in a good show here, and $26 offers good value.
Value Bet
Toorak Toff ($15)- Was in good form before the run to nowhere in the Toorak. 1400m is better but will have to contend with barrier fifteen and 59kgs.
Worth Considering
Thankgodyou'rehere (draw concerns)
Amaethon
Happy Zero (Value)
Other Races to Enjoy
All of them of course. Dowager Queen looking for an Aussie victory in race three has a good chance to upset the favourite. Sepoy will put on a show in the forth.
Race two is the Lexus stakes. Always a good chance to get into the cup, and the winner here is worth considering, Shocking won the Cup after winning this a couple of years back.
The Mackinnon Stakes is looking like the race of the day. Will be interesting to see how Cox Plate runners rebound from last week and how horses like the Metrop winner The Verminator, Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed will go here. I have more things to consider.
As much as the spectacle of the Melbourne Cup is exciting and amazing to see, Derby Day is the day of the Melbourne Cup carnival I tend to look forward to the most. Big races all day with quality fields, and this year there is a huge quaddie on offer. I believe because of the co-mingling of the pools this is also on offer to punters in New Zealand, but to be honest I have no idea how that works. As big as the pool for the quaddie this week it is also a very difficult one to select, so today I am hoping break down some of the chances in each race. I will then briefly look at some of the other big races on a great day of racing.
Quaddie Preview
Leg One - AAMI Victoria Derby
Hard to leave out
Manawanui - Can he stay? well I think he proved that with his performance in the AAMI Vase last weekend, it is hard to tell if he even got to top gear. He might be the closest thing to a Anchor we have, but with so many horses running anything can happen. Often at this stage in the career of a three year old it may not be the best stayer who wins this race but the best athlete, Manawanui certainly appears to have the talent.
Stangster - I watched his last start again to see what happened. He really had to make a move early, he had to travel three wide and at times he seemed wider around the bend, he got in the clear and unleashed his run. His run was early and he ran out of steam, but he still really had most of them beat. I am confident he will get the 2500m. His draw is comfortable and he should find himself somewhere in the middle of the pack. He is hard to leave out.
Induna - One of the few who has started at greater than 2000m more than once, he also has a start at 1900m, you have to believe the prep for this race has been good. The Geelong Classic run was impressive, he definitely looks up to this level.
Potential Quaddie Buster - for this purpose I will pick one who might be under the radar who could potentially spoil the quaddie (will only select horses paying over $20).
Cornell ($51) - Hard to see where he is going to make up the three plus lengths to Induna from the last time they met, however of the $20+ crowd he looks the most likely.
Value Bet
Sarbage ($15) - pretty good value on a runner who flew past Sangster last start.
Worth Considering
Collar
Perfect Punch
Niagara
Mr Chez
Leg Two - Myer Classic
Hard to leave out
More Joyous - If Manawanui wins the first leg and More Joyous the second there will be a lot of live units remaining. She had some sort of saddle problem prior to her last start, her price pushed out as people doubted this great mare, she became great value for a horse we know to be of top quality. During the running she was back and at times uncovered but once she hit top gear she really zoomed home, and while she didn't win by a lot she still crossed the finish line first. She has three wins from four over the mile so this distance will suit. Again, with a lot of chances in this race it is hard to recommend her as an anchor but depending on your Manawanui feelings she might be the next closest thing.
Lady Lynette - Has limited success on the track, but last two runs have been good. She goes well over the distance. I would have thought she was a better chance in this before disappointing two starts back. Before her win here she was fourth to Pinker Pinker and then third to Kings Rose and Pinker Pinker. Seems a bit over the odds at $21.
Mosheen - Form and at 49kgs there is a lot of get excited about. She is consistent and 1600m record has been proven. Looks like a great chance to upset the favourite.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Other than Lady Lynette.
Skyerush ($26)- Simply based on consistency it is hard not to consider her. She has proven herself over 1600m and it seems about right at this point in her prep.
Value Bet
Other than the two mentioned above there is good value around Guisepinna ($21) if she makes the field. Banchee for a place. Goon Serpent ($21) might be good value, but there is plenty of value in this race.
Worth Considering
It is possible to make a case for about three quarters of the field.
Leg Three - Salinger Stakes
This is where punters will have to go wide to take in a lot of runners.
Hard to leave out
Temple of Boom - Great record course and distance. Was very good last time. Only concern is the quality of the other runners and the draw.
Sister Madly - 1200m just suits this mare. Very good form at present, only losing to Sepoy and More Joyous in recent starts.
Curtana - Kept close enough to Sepoy last start to justify inclusion.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Only three paying greater than $20 in this close betting race. Hard to see any of them busting your quaddie here as there are eight runners paying between $4.50 and $13. However Black Piranah at $51 looks the best of the over $20 bunch, he has the class but maybe not quite the form over 1200m in recent times.
Value Bet
Temple of Boom is pretty good value, the market here looks pretty even maybe Curtana and Catapulted are slightly over too.
Worth Considering
Any of the mentioned runners in that group of Eight.
Neeson, Stirling Grove, and Catapulted look most likely to figure.
Leg Four - TAB.COM.AU Stakes
You will be doing very well if you are still alive for this one, but it is not any easier.
Hard to leave out
Doubtful Jack - Has first hand experience what it is like to see the rump of Black Caviar, but so does every other horse she has ever faced on a racetrack. Pretty good tune up run in a small field, consistent of late and loves Flemington.
Lunary - It is all falling into place to make it four from four at Flemington, loves 1400m and is brilliant second up. Barrier eight and 54kgs make this look like an outstanding chance.
Niblick - Another with strong C'n'D form. Also been good on the track recently, can do 53.5kg with ease, another to must include.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Largo Lad - Is another with form on the course and over the distance. He looks primed to put in a good show here, and $26 offers good value.
Value Bet
Toorak Toff ($15)- Was in good form before the run to nowhere in the Toorak. 1400m is better but will have to contend with barrier fifteen and 59kgs.
Worth Considering
Thankgodyou'rehere (draw concerns)
Amaethon
Happy Zero (Value)
Other Races to Enjoy
All of them of course. Dowager Queen looking for an Aussie victory in race three has a good chance to upset the favourite. Sepoy will put on a show in the forth.
Race two is the Lexus stakes. Always a good chance to get into the cup, and the winner here is worth considering, Shocking won the Cup after winning this a couple of years back.
- Tullamore and Green Moon are genuine Melbourne Cup contenders. Tullamore should be in the 24, Green Moon is at 32nd on the order of entry, he really needs this.
- Showcause had a good performance in the Geelong Cup, he is not as out of this as $15 suggests, he probably needs to win as he is currently at 37th in line for the Cup.
- Niwot is short with the bookmakers and performed well course and distance in the Bart Cummings, a winner recently at Flemington over 3200m is 34th in the order and likely needs a win here to get a Cup shot.
- I thought Aundjawun looked pretty good at Moonee Valley last start, at 40th for the cup he will need this win, $15 odds looks about right and possibly good value.
- Older Than Time is in the Cup if they want it, seems to be improving and another one who could go well here.
- Booming can start the Cup if he wants it, sounds like he will need to have a good showing here to be given the start on Tuesday, still looks like an outside winning chance
The Mackinnon Stakes is looking like the race of the day. Will be interesting to see how Cox Plate runners rebound from last week and how horses like the Metrop winner The Verminator, Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed will go here. I have more things to consider.
- I picked Glass Harmonium to win the Cox Plate. He lost that race in the first five meters of the 2040m trip. Do you give him another chance? I tend to agree with Mike Moroney, I think it will be unlikely that there will be so much disruption before this race and that he (the horse) is worth another shot.
- Wall Street has been kept a lot safer this week after a flying fourth in the Cox Plate. Will likely jump better this week and be in a better position to make a run at them.
- Efficient, looked great last week, he got squeezed out when making a run at the end and still came 6th.
- It feels like a good opportunity for Ginga Dude, $31 is pretty good value. Won on the course and distance about a year ago, will probably challenge Glass Harmonium for the lead.
- Despite the Verminator's good form and love of 2000m, hard to see the 59kgs suit. One can assume he will start on Tuesday in the Cup, so if you want a run on Saturday why not hit the Lexus?
- Rekindled interest was excellent last week. Should get a great trip from barrier five with Ginga Dude moving forward. Unlucky at the finish last week and still charged home for third.
- Southern Speed, unfortunately I think the weight will be a bit too much. However she has been excellent all spring and is never too far away.
- Lights of Heaven, has to be considered after her last start effort in strong field.
Tuesday 25 October 2011
Three Year Old Power Rankings
It is about time I revised my New Zealand 3YO Power rankings, there are two reasons for the revision, firstly the first edition had a massive oversight and didn't include Sangster, secondly a lot changes quickly amongst the 3YO's, some have lost, some have won, and there were three big 3YO races in New Zealand on the weekend which definitely effected this stuff. I will aim to revise these at least monthly as the season progresses and add in 2YO rankings once there is a bit more form around these.
I guess what is required is a definition of 'Power' for the purpose of the power rankings, another thing I didn't do properly when I first attempted this. There is no formula, it is not the highest rated, nor are they a genuine indication of which 3YO would beat each other 3YO (all things been equal). I am applying an incredibly loose and very subjective definition of Power for these rankings will be an indication of my impression of a number of factors including
Burgundy had won his only start at that time (and has subsequently won a second and third), he was clearly a colt with a lot of hype (a lot to do with his million dollar plus price tag), and that he was moving up in favouritism for the Guineas.
Power Rankings
Dropped from rankings: Testa Secret (5), Kasumi (6), Estrato (7), Whoshe (9), Savabil (10)
Honourable Mention: Bulwer Bay (hard to leave out), Planet Rock (maybe can blame the track on the weekend), Kasumi (need to see the next start), Ginner Hart (has not raced since mentioned last start), Prestigious Miss (same).
The Top 10
Number 10 - Artistic (8) - Came from the back again on Monday. She would have been hoping for third in that tough race, but it was another impressive performance, a similar pattern has emerged from her last two starts and we know she will be flying home in the Guineas.
Number 9 - Rock and Pop (N/A) Hard to rank, would be a bit easier had he beaten Planet Rock a couple of weekends ago, particularly after Planet Rock's run on Saturday at Wellington. Definitely cannot be ahead of Shuka on any list.
Number 8 - President Lincoln (N/A) - He has now won two from three, and put up an impressive performance in the Group 2 Wellington Guineas on the weekend. It was a reasonably strong field and you have to give him credit, but it looked like he just handled the conditions better than most. Will be interesting if he can show that finish on a better track, but definitely one to watch in the wet.
Number 7 - Shuka (N/A) - Two impressive runs. He was very unlikely to beat Burgundy, but he did beat Bulwer Bay who has emerged over his past two starts. In recent weeks he has beaten Rock and Pop. He was a Group 2 winner last year who also ran for Fifth in both 2YO Group 1's.
Number 6 - Holy Moly (N/A) - Impressive again on Monday for third, she did seem to be slowly making up ground on two horses we know are very strong, it makes two impressive runs in a row. Although it may be hard to beat Anabandana in the Thousand Guineas she is indicating that she might be the best of the rest.
Number 5 - Sangster (N/A) - Been watching him more closely since he was tipped to me as a derby winner a few weeks ago. The Derby is an extra 500m from what he has been running, and he ran out of steam last start. Looking back at that race again it still looks to me like the opportunity was there and it had to be taken by James McDonald. Sangster did really kick clear of the field opening a gap between the 300m and 200m marks, he fought hard and was only taken in the last 10m or so, Niagara who ran 3rd was really the only other horse who appeared to be making up ground at the end. If he gets a good draw and finds a nice position the 2500m shouldn't be an issue. The problem will be Manawanui who once again looked great on Saturday.
Number 4 - Dowager Queen (3) - She drops mainly because of the dominance of Burgundy. I like her chances to win a Group 2 in Melbourne this weekend after her last two starts against strong company. I was particularly impressed by the weaving run through traffic for second at Caulfield last start.
Number 3 - Burgundy (4) - Faced his biggest test to date and did so without worries. I cannot remember seeing a horse bound from the gates as quickly as he did on Sunday. Watching that race (on replay because like most people in New Zealand I spent Sunday afternoon "preparing" for the Rugby World Cup Final) I half expected him to take off about 600m out, he just looked like he was trying to go for it. Matthew Cameron resisted the temptation, and when he did unwind he did so with ease, but also appeared to have more to offer if it was required. Is he the best 3YO at the moment? possibly, but it may not be until the Levin Classic that we get to find out for sure.
Number 2 - Anabandana (1) - Hard to drop too her too far. She came well for Antonio Lombardo, but just couldn't catch him. Surprisingly, she looked to make up some ground towards the 400m, but once Antonio Lombardo shot clear it was probably as close as she got to him.
Number 1 - Antonio Lombardo (2) - Beat number one, had to take over the top spot. Great performance on the weekend, once again Sam Spratt controlled the race, he just seemed to have too much for them. I didn't see him wear down as the race went on, he is definitely looking good for the step up to the mile in the Levin Classic.
In making this list I think I have only confused myself further. As we hit the 3YO Group 1's in a couple of weeks this will become easier to make but right now there are five 3YO's I believe are clearly better than the rest. I just hope I have not lost track of any this time.
I guess what is required is a definition of 'Power' for the purpose of the power rankings, another thing I didn't do properly when I first attempted this. There is no formula, it is not the highest rated, nor are they a genuine indication of which 3YO would beat each other 3YO (all things been equal). I am applying an incredibly loose and very subjective definition of Power for these rankings will be an indication of my impression of a number of factors including
- Overall Record
- Recent Form
- Dominance of victories
- Form in 'big' races
- Form against other top 3YO (and older) talent
- Buzz (Media and Bookie)
Burgundy had won his only start at that time (and has subsequently won a second and third), he was clearly a colt with a lot of hype (a lot to do with his million dollar plus price tag), and that he was moving up in favouritism for the Guineas.
Power Rankings
Dropped from rankings: Testa Secret (5), Kasumi (6), Estrato (7), Whoshe (9), Savabil (10)
Honourable Mention: Bulwer Bay (hard to leave out), Planet Rock (maybe can blame the track on the weekend), Kasumi (need to see the next start), Ginner Hart (has not raced since mentioned last start), Prestigious Miss (same).
The Top 10
Number 10 - Artistic (8) - Came from the back again on Monday. She would have been hoping for third in that tough race, but it was another impressive performance, a similar pattern has emerged from her last two starts and we know she will be flying home in the Guineas.
Number 9 - Rock and Pop (N/A) Hard to rank, would be a bit easier had he beaten Planet Rock a couple of weekends ago, particularly after Planet Rock's run on Saturday at Wellington. Definitely cannot be ahead of Shuka on any list.
Number 8 - President Lincoln (N/A) - He has now won two from three, and put up an impressive performance in the Group 2 Wellington Guineas on the weekend. It was a reasonably strong field and you have to give him credit, but it looked like he just handled the conditions better than most. Will be interesting if he can show that finish on a better track, but definitely one to watch in the wet.
Number 7 - Shuka (N/A) - Two impressive runs. He was very unlikely to beat Burgundy, but he did beat Bulwer Bay who has emerged over his past two starts. In recent weeks he has beaten Rock and Pop. He was a Group 2 winner last year who also ran for Fifth in both 2YO Group 1's.
Number 6 - Holy Moly (N/A) - Impressive again on Monday for third, she did seem to be slowly making up ground on two horses we know are very strong, it makes two impressive runs in a row. Although it may be hard to beat Anabandana in the Thousand Guineas she is indicating that she might be the best of the rest.
Number 5 - Sangster (N/A) - Been watching him more closely since he was tipped to me as a derby winner a few weeks ago. The Derby is an extra 500m from what he has been running, and he ran out of steam last start. Looking back at that race again it still looks to me like the opportunity was there and it had to be taken by James McDonald. Sangster did really kick clear of the field opening a gap between the 300m and 200m marks, he fought hard and was only taken in the last 10m or so, Niagara who ran 3rd was really the only other horse who appeared to be making up ground at the end. If he gets a good draw and finds a nice position the 2500m shouldn't be an issue. The problem will be Manawanui who once again looked great on Saturday.
Number 4 - Dowager Queen (3) - She drops mainly because of the dominance of Burgundy. I like her chances to win a Group 2 in Melbourne this weekend after her last two starts against strong company. I was particularly impressed by the weaving run through traffic for second at Caulfield last start.
Number 3 - Burgundy (4) - Faced his biggest test to date and did so without worries. I cannot remember seeing a horse bound from the gates as quickly as he did on Sunday. Watching that race (on replay because like most people in New Zealand I spent Sunday afternoon "preparing" for the Rugby World Cup Final) I half expected him to take off about 600m out, he just looked like he was trying to go for it. Matthew Cameron resisted the temptation, and when he did unwind he did so with ease, but also appeared to have more to offer if it was required. Is he the best 3YO at the moment? possibly, but it may not be until the Levin Classic that we get to find out for sure.
Number 2 - Anabandana (1) - Hard to drop too her too far. She came well for Antonio Lombardo, but just couldn't catch him. Surprisingly, she looked to make up some ground towards the 400m, but once Antonio Lombardo shot clear it was probably as close as she got to him.
Number 1 - Antonio Lombardo (2) - Beat number one, had to take over the top spot. Great performance on the weekend, once again Sam Spratt controlled the race, he just seemed to have too much for them. I didn't see him wear down as the race went on, he is definitely looking good for the step up to the mile in the Levin Classic.
In making this list I think I have only confused myself further. As we hit the 3YO Group 1's in a couple of weeks this will become easier to make but right now there are five 3YO's I believe are clearly better than the rest. I just hope I have not lost track of any this time.
Friday 21 October 2011
A long weekend of Racing
This long weekend many New Zealand eyes will be focused on the Rugby World Cup final. The French may not be able to pull off a Rugby World Cup win on the weekend but they are starting to look even more likely to take home a second consecutive Melbourne Cup after Dunaden's impressive run in the Geelong Cup, we will get a better idea of Americian's form on Cox Plate day. Many of New Zealand's horse racing fan's eyes will be focused on Melbourne as several Kiwi horses take on the big races from Moonee Valley, however there is great racing action happening at home, here are some things to look out for over this long weekend.
Saturday
Auckland
The ARC will shout everyone on course a drink if Jimmy Choux wins the Cox Plate. If that is not incentive enough the whether is looking fine and the racing damn fine starting with an interesting race for the 3YO's and an early season look at some 2YO's.
Race 3 is definitely an interesting one, it is a Rating 70 race over 2400m, but it features horses who may be better than that, Maythehorsebemagic used to carrying a lot of weight over the jumps and searching for its first win in 12 starts at Ellerslie, super consistent Zardetto will have the services of Opie Bosson who won last time he rode him, underrated Toby Cee probably needs this extra distance, but the one which stands out is D'Nood Lady who ran a good 4th in a tougher Rating 80 race in Auckland over this distance two starts back, has been consistent recently and the horse who won that race at Ellerslie went on to win a Listed level race its next start.
Race 4 is a 2400m Rating 80 race, but features many who have been racing in higher grades in consistent form and also features Black Fox having start number 120 and number 52 at Ellerslie. There is a lot of up and coming rating 80 talent on show in race six, definitely a few to keep an eye on as they raise through the grades. Race 7 features a lot of top talent with several runners displaying form on the course.
Wellington
Wellington offers excellent feature racing including the Wellington Guineas. The first race may feature the talented Planet Rock, but I suspect she is more likely to be spotted in the Guineas later that day, but it is an interesting field of the next level of 3YO's to open up the program.
Race 3 the Wellesley Boutique Hotel Stakes should be interesting, it is a Listed 2YO race which features several 2YO's who have already broken the maiden ranks. Still hard to know exactly what to expect, it looks like several of runners in this race to notch up a victory would be suited to slightly more distance. Killa Question is the sole runner with Heavy track form, although several others have form on Slow tracks. Will be a good early look at 2YO's likely to feature in a lot of the Group and Listed races for 2YO's as the summer progresses.
I am very interested to see if Baby Guinness can win its third in a row. It is a horse I like a lot, and a tasty shot (not the kind of horse related shot you might find at a wild foods festival). Another good win here and we could see her start to take on races like the Rich Hill Stud Thompson Handicap, which is the first feature race of the day. A great field, with a handful backing up from the either the Matamata Cup or other similar strong Taranaki, Hawkes Bay or Rotorua races. It is a strong betting race as punters have had a good chance to have a look at a lot of these runners in recent weeks. Here is how I see a few of the contenders.
My First Four
(2) Justanexcuse - Came home very well when second in a strong Matamata Cup field, only penalised a half kilo for this start. He had another strong third in a tough race in the Hawkes Bay prior to that where Twlight Savings was dominant. Has been very consistent recently and tends to get better with more racing, winning five out of seven victories from "8th up" onwards.He brings a great on course record and was a winner here in January. If the track remains heavy it will not worry Justanexcuse with three wins and four placings under those conditions.
(9) Guessing - Has almost not won for over a year. Mixed her form a bit recently, but the Taranaki Breeders Stakes run was very strong, and on the strength of that performance she must be included. She has a better draw today than her last four double digit draws. She drops in weight from her last three outings. This is a horse who won five in a row last year and has won forth up in the past.
(8) No Excuse Maggie - Will carry an extra 1.5kgs this week. John Bary cant do much wrong at the moment, this might be the start of a very big day for his stable. No Excuse Maggie is a very consistent miler who looked very good last start. She wont mind it wet under foot. She has been very consistent recently and looked very strong with her last start win.
(11) Lady Kipling -Group 1 Placed as a 3YO this mare has run in top company throughout her career with good success but without notching up a black type victory, today could be her day. She is in very good form, her last two victories have been convincing at lower grades. She typically has performed best early in her campaigns so 3rd up should suit her well. She will also only carry 53kg's and retain the services of top Jockey Lisa Allpress. Barrier draw might concern, but she typically runs slightly off the pace anyway so potentially she will find a nice place to sit.
Some others to look at
(4) Kaap Kruis - Probably ready for the mile at the moment. The worry is the extra 1.5kg's from the 5th to Twlight savings two starts back in Hastings. Another with very strong wet track form and success on the track. His best racing may have passed him by this prep, but an interesting runner who could grab a place.
(6) Ourforeignminister - Won or placed in his last four, including a win in a similar field last start.Has had over a month off and typically doesn't go that well in that state. Will also carry an extra 2.5kg's here, but he has won carrying around this weight in the past.
(7) Intransigent - A horse I have looked a lot in recent weeks. Had a good win last week at long odds.Dropping back to 1600m is a bit of a concern. He will carry an extra 1.5kgs, but he should get a good trip from barrier two. There is a lot to scare you away from him this week.
The other Wellington feature is the Guineas, it will be a good look at some of the contenders ahead of the Canterbury Group 1's next month. There are three races for 3YO's on this week which thins out some of the potential fields particularly if you look at the murders row assembled in Hamilton for Monday. A lot of interest will be focused on Burgundy on Sunday. This is a strong field but I see Planet Rock is nominated for both this and the race on Sunday in Christchurch, so I can only assume he will race in this.
The chances
(10) Planet Rock - Simply looks the one to beat here. Her narrow victory last start was over the impressive and highly rated Rock and Pop. She ran a good third in the Karaka Million last year, and has always been consistent throughout her short career. Not sure if she will start this or the Sunday race, but I like her chances here more.
(1) Distil - Didn't fire first up as a 3YO, but ran a 3rd and a 4th in Group 1's as a 2YO. He did run home in a race which was dominated by top 3YO Antonio Lombardo, 1500m should be suitable. Not enough known to know if he can get back to his best, I am looking towards those big race performances as a guide to his ability.
(9) Whoshe - I have gone off this filly since the run in Auckland for Third, she was maybe exposed that day as not quite as classy as she appeared up until that point, the forth at Hastings was in a similar race to this, particularly after you remove Antonio Lombardo from the equation.She is worth another look.
(2) Duckworth Lewis - In my first draft of this I had a typo and typed the name of this horse as Suckworth Lewis. That is generally how I feel about him up until this point in his career. However his last start run was better than I remembered after taking another look at it, he battled on well on the inside. Hayden Tinsley has a the ability to win this type of race on this type of horse. He might be an interesting place bet today.
(4) Jetset Man - Really don't know enough to make an informed comment. Could definitely see him sneaking into the mix here. Admittedly Distil and Duckworth Lewis are long shots, but they just look like they could be chances in this race.
Melbourne
This post was supposed to focus on New Zealand, but Saturday in Melbourne is just too excellent to pass up. I have written about my Cox Plate thoughts, and really not much has changed. Descarado is out, my pick Kings Rose has shortened to $12, Rekindled Interest has been the big market mover crunching into $6.50 based on a track gallop with Jimmy Choux, but John Bary isn't concerned. I still think the big worry is Glass Harmonium, mainly because I don't like the record of mares in this race. Efficient still appeals as an outsider at $18.
Other things to look forward to on the day include Black Caviar, this mare is outstanding and has reduced the number of runners in this race to five because of how unbeatable she is. At this stage Sepoy appears the most likely to challenge in the Patinack Farm Classic during Melbourne cup week. It is also interesting that on Cox Plate day they seem to be promoting Black Caviar as the main draw card, that is how amazing this horse is.
Manawanui gets another Derby tune up in a small field. He is at short odds and given his impressive Guineas run it is not surprising. I still like the match up with Sangster in the Derby, it is unfortunate for James McDonald that he will not get a chance to ride him in the Derby, it looked like he went a bit early with his run last start, but given his position on the track I think he had to go for it, he had got to the lead and it certainly looked like he had a lot to offer when he shot clear. He will probably be fitter for the run and nicely placed on Derby Saturday.
The Drake International Cup is looking interesting, there is a couple of Kiwis (Harris Tweed, and Booming), taking on Melbourne Cup contenders in Linton, Tullamore, Illo, Anudjawon, and defending champion Americain. Should be a good build up less than ten days out from the Melbourne Cup.
I wouldn't say He's Remarkable looked remarkable last start, but he was pretty impressive. 1600m is clearly ideal and 52.5kgs feels like a gift, but this is a big step up. He didn't really fire in the autumn in Sydney, so will this trip to Aussie be more suitable? certainly he is in the form of his short career to date. Ginga Dude actually looks well placed in this, course and distance winner in a lower grade two starts back, he drops to 1600m which is a distance where he has had a lot of success. Outside of the Kiwi's Luen Yat Forever was strongly backed last time and finished third behind two very good horses in the Toorak, I liked the look of Triple Elegance before the Epsom, he has to be considered if you are happy to throw out that race. Testa My Patience has an outstanding overall record, will be taking a step up, but again the 53.5kg has to appeal. Dao Dao was another who looked like good value on the back of a pretty good Toorak run, his overall 1600m record is appealing.
Sunday
Canterbury
Looks to be good racing all day, the interesting one is clearly the 3YO feature with Burgundy and possibly Planet Rock. It is hard not to have Burgundy on top, if he is the Guineas favourite surely he is good enough to account for this field.
(3) Burgundy - Matthew Cameron must be looking forward to this ride after missing the last start of Burgundy. He might be the best person to ask about the Guineas favouritism on Monday after he rides Anabandana the next day. This is the biggest test for this horse to date, but based on everything we know so far it is hard to go against him.
(1) Shuka - Could stir things up in the race for second if Planet Rock is in this, he beat a handy field last start including the likes of Kasumi and Rock and Pop.
(10) Planet Rock - I actually rate his chances in Wellington more. The draw and Burgundy work against her here. However she has proved consistent and should at least figure.
(2) Dollario - Only winner of $43k from his 12 starts, he has been consistent racking up three wins, but has come 3rd five times. That $43k could have been higher with some luck. It looks pretty wet in Christchurch at the moment this could work in the favour of Dollario.
So many of these horses are still unknown, or were beaten last time by Shuka, so it is hard to see them beating the known quality this race had to offer.
Monday
Waikato
What better way to work off the post All Black victory hangover and enjoy your Labour day. Te Rapa offers the best line up for 3YO's this weekend. We all know the quality of Anabandana and Antonio Lombardo, so this should be an excellent battle. Artistic put herself in Thousand Guineas contention with her convincing win against the Colts at Ellerslie and Holy Moly won well the day day. It is hard not to pick these in the order of their ratings.
Anabandana - The track is currently Slow, she is yet to see a track worse than Good other than in a couple of trials. She will also not have Opie Bosson's services unless he is granted a concession to ride at slightly above the listed weight.
Antonio Lombardo - He looks to have improved from last season, the Hawkes Bay Guineas win was superb and easy. I think he has closed the gap on Anabandana from the Manawatu Sires Produce run, and the gap was not that big to begin with.
Artistic - I am still a little sure what to make of that run given the pre-start delays, which I asked a few questions about, but it was very eye catching. Will have to watch this one closely, she might get found out.
Holy Moly - Impressive win last start, a chance to prove that she is improving.
Is there anything else in this race who can compete with this top four? To me it looks like Chicharita and Full of Spirit might be the most likely, but it is hard to see them doing any better than third.
Saturday
Auckland
The ARC will shout everyone on course a drink if Jimmy Choux wins the Cox Plate. If that is not incentive enough the whether is looking fine and the racing damn fine starting with an interesting race for the 3YO's and an early season look at some 2YO's.
Race 3 is definitely an interesting one, it is a Rating 70 race over 2400m, but it features horses who may be better than that, Maythehorsebemagic used to carrying a lot of weight over the jumps and searching for its first win in 12 starts at Ellerslie, super consistent Zardetto will have the services of Opie Bosson who won last time he rode him, underrated Toby Cee probably needs this extra distance, but the one which stands out is D'Nood Lady who ran a good 4th in a tougher Rating 80 race in Auckland over this distance two starts back, has been consistent recently and the horse who won that race at Ellerslie went on to win a Listed level race its next start.
Race 4 is a 2400m Rating 80 race, but features many who have been racing in higher grades in consistent form and also features Black Fox having start number 120 and number 52 at Ellerslie. There is a lot of up and coming rating 80 talent on show in race six, definitely a few to keep an eye on as they raise through the grades. Race 7 features a lot of top talent with several runners displaying form on the course.
Wellington
Wellington offers excellent feature racing including the Wellington Guineas. The first race may feature the talented Planet Rock, but I suspect she is more likely to be spotted in the Guineas later that day, but it is an interesting field of the next level of 3YO's to open up the program.
Race 3 the Wellesley Boutique Hotel Stakes should be interesting, it is a Listed 2YO race which features several 2YO's who have already broken the maiden ranks. Still hard to know exactly what to expect, it looks like several of runners in this race to notch up a victory would be suited to slightly more distance. Killa Question is the sole runner with Heavy track form, although several others have form on Slow tracks. Will be a good early look at 2YO's likely to feature in a lot of the Group and Listed races for 2YO's as the summer progresses.
I am very interested to see if Baby Guinness can win its third in a row. It is a horse I like a lot, and a tasty shot (not the kind of horse related shot you might find at a wild foods festival). Another good win here and we could see her start to take on races like the Rich Hill Stud Thompson Handicap, which is the first feature race of the day. A great field, with a handful backing up from the either the Matamata Cup or other similar strong Taranaki, Hawkes Bay or Rotorua races. It is a strong betting race as punters have had a good chance to have a look at a lot of these runners in recent weeks. Here is how I see a few of the contenders.
My First Four
(2) Justanexcuse - Came home very well when second in a strong Matamata Cup field, only penalised a half kilo for this start. He had another strong third in a tough race in the Hawkes Bay prior to that where Twlight Savings was dominant. Has been very consistent recently and tends to get better with more racing, winning five out of seven victories from "8th up" onwards.He brings a great on course record and was a winner here in January. If the track remains heavy it will not worry Justanexcuse with three wins and four placings under those conditions.
(9) Guessing - Has almost not won for over a year. Mixed her form a bit recently, but the Taranaki Breeders Stakes run was very strong, and on the strength of that performance she must be included. She has a better draw today than her last four double digit draws. She drops in weight from her last three outings. This is a horse who won five in a row last year and has won forth up in the past.
(8) No Excuse Maggie - Will carry an extra 1.5kgs this week. John Bary cant do much wrong at the moment, this might be the start of a very big day for his stable. No Excuse Maggie is a very consistent miler who looked very good last start. She wont mind it wet under foot. She has been very consistent recently and looked very strong with her last start win.
(11) Lady Kipling -Group 1 Placed as a 3YO this mare has run in top company throughout her career with good success but without notching up a black type victory, today could be her day. She is in very good form, her last two victories have been convincing at lower grades. She typically has performed best early in her campaigns so 3rd up should suit her well. She will also only carry 53kg's and retain the services of top Jockey Lisa Allpress. Barrier draw might concern, but she typically runs slightly off the pace anyway so potentially she will find a nice place to sit.
Some others to look at
(4) Kaap Kruis - Probably ready for the mile at the moment. The worry is the extra 1.5kg's from the 5th to Twlight savings two starts back in Hastings. Another with very strong wet track form and success on the track. His best racing may have passed him by this prep, but an interesting runner who could grab a place.
(6) Ourforeignminister - Won or placed in his last four, including a win in a similar field last start.Has had over a month off and typically doesn't go that well in that state. Will also carry an extra 2.5kg's here, but he has won carrying around this weight in the past.
(7) Intransigent - A horse I have looked a lot in recent weeks. Had a good win last week at long odds.Dropping back to 1600m is a bit of a concern. He will carry an extra 1.5kgs, but he should get a good trip from barrier two. There is a lot to scare you away from him this week.
The other Wellington feature is the Guineas, it will be a good look at some of the contenders ahead of the Canterbury Group 1's next month. There are three races for 3YO's on this week which thins out some of the potential fields particularly if you look at the murders row assembled in Hamilton for Monday. A lot of interest will be focused on Burgundy on Sunday. This is a strong field but I see Planet Rock is nominated for both this and the race on Sunday in Christchurch, so I can only assume he will race in this.
The chances
(10) Planet Rock - Simply looks the one to beat here. Her narrow victory last start was over the impressive and highly rated Rock and Pop. She ran a good third in the Karaka Million last year, and has always been consistent throughout her short career. Not sure if she will start this or the Sunday race, but I like her chances here more.
(1) Distil - Didn't fire first up as a 3YO, but ran a 3rd and a 4th in Group 1's as a 2YO. He did run home in a race which was dominated by top 3YO Antonio Lombardo, 1500m should be suitable. Not enough known to know if he can get back to his best, I am looking towards those big race performances as a guide to his ability.
(9) Whoshe - I have gone off this filly since the run in Auckland for Third, she was maybe exposed that day as not quite as classy as she appeared up until that point, the forth at Hastings was in a similar race to this, particularly after you remove Antonio Lombardo from the equation.She is worth another look.
(2) Duckworth Lewis - In my first draft of this I had a typo and typed the name of this horse as Suckworth Lewis. That is generally how I feel about him up until this point in his career. However his last start run was better than I remembered after taking another look at it, he battled on well on the inside. Hayden Tinsley has a the ability to win this type of race on this type of horse. He might be an interesting place bet today.
(4) Jetset Man - Really don't know enough to make an informed comment. Could definitely see him sneaking into the mix here. Admittedly Distil and Duckworth Lewis are long shots, but they just look like they could be chances in this race.
Melbourne
This post was supposed to focus on New Zealand, but Saturday in Melbourne is just too excellent to pass up. I have written about my Cox Plate thoughts, and really not much has changed. Descarado is out, my pick Kings Rose has shortened to $12, Rekindled Interest has been the big market mover crunching into $6.50 based on a track gallop with Jimmy Choux, but John Bary isn't concerned. I still think the big worry is Glass Harmonium, mainly because I don't like the record of mares in this race. Efficient still appeals as an outsider at $18.
Other things to look forward to on the day include Black Caviar, this mare is outstanding and has reduced the number of runners in this race to five because of how unbeatable she is. At this stage Sepoy appears the most likely to challenge in the Patinack Farm Classic during Melbourne cup week. It is also interesting that on Cox Plate day they seem to be promoting Black Caviar as the main draw card, that is how amazing this horse is.
Manawanui gets another Derby tune up in a small field. He is at short odds and given his impressive Guineas run it is not surprising. I still like the match up with Sangster in the Derby, it is unfortunate for James McDonald that he will not get a chance to ride him in the Derby, it looked like he went a bit early with his run last start, but given his position on the track I think he had to go for it, he had got to the lead and it certainly looked like he had a lot to offer when he shot clear. He will probably be fitter for the run and nicely placed on Derby Saturday.
The Drake International Cup is looking interesting, there is a couple of Kiwis (Harris Tweed, and Booming), taking on Melbourne Cup contenders in Linton, Tullamore, Illo, Anudjawon, and defending champion Americain. Should be a good build up less than ten days out from the Melbourne Cup.
I wouldn't say He's Remarkable looked remarkable last start, but he was pretty impressive. 1600m is clearly ideal and 52.5kgs feels like a gift, but this is a big step up. He didn't really fire in the autumn in Sydney, so will this trip to Aussie be more suitable? certainly he is in the form of his short career to date. Ginga Dude actually looks well placed in this, course and distance winner in a lower grade two starts back, he drops to 1600m which is a distance where he has had a lot of success. Outside of the Kiwi's Luen Yat Forever was strongly backed last time and finished third behind two very good horses in the Toorak, I liked the look of Triple Elegance before the Epsom, he has to be considered if you are happy to throw out that race. Testa My Patience has an outstanding overall record, will be taking a step up, but again the 53.5kg has to appeal. Dao Dao was another who looked like good value on the back of a pretty good Toorak run, his overall 1600m record is appealing.
Sunday
Canterbury
Looks to be good racing all day, the interesting one is clearly the 3YO feature with Burgundy and possibly Planet Rock. It is hard not to have Burgundy on top, if he is the Guineas favourite surely he is good enough to account for this field.
(3) Burgundy - Matthew Cameron must be looking forward to this ride after missing the last start of Burgundy. He might be the best person to ask about the Guineas favouritism on Monday after he rides Anabandana the next day. This is the biggest test for this horse to date, but based on everything we know so far it is hard to go against him.
(1) Shuka - Could stir things up in the race for second if Planet Rock is in this, he beat a handy field last start including the likes of Kasumi and Rock and Pop.
(10) Planet Rock - I actually rate his chances in Wellington more. The draw and Burgundy work against her here. However she has proved consistent and should at least figure.
(2) Dollario - Only winner of $43k from his 12 starts, he has been consistent racking up three wins, but has come 3rd five times. That $43k could have been higher with some luck. It looks pretty wet in Christchurch at the moment this could work in the favour of Dollario.
So many of these horses are still unknown, or were beaten last time by Shuka, so it is hard to see them beating the known quality this race had to offer.
Monday
Waikato
What better way to work off the post All Black victory hangover and enjoy your Labour day. Te Rapa offers the best line up for 3YO's this weekend. We all know the quality of Anabandana and Antonio Lombardo, so this should be an excellent battle. Artistic put herself in Thousand Guineas contention with her convincing win against the Colts at Ellerslie and Holy Moly won well the day day. It is hard not to pick these in the order of their ratings.
Anabandana - The track is currently Slow, she is yet to see a track worse than Good other than in a couple of trials. She will also not have Opie Bosson's services unless he is granted a concession to ride at slightly above the listed weight.
Antonio Lombardo - He looks to have improved from last season, the Hawkes Bay Guineas win was superb and easy. I think he has closed the gap on Anabandana from the Manawatu Sires Produce run, and the gap was not that big to begin with.
Artistic - I am still a little sure what to make of that run given the pre-start delays, which I asked a few questions about, but it was very eye catching. Will have to watch this one closely, she might get found out.
Holy Moly - Impressive win last start, a chance to prove that she is improving.
Is there anything else in this race who can compete with this top four? To me it looks like Chicharita and Full of Spirit might be the most likely, but it is hard to see them doing any better than third.
Tuesday 18 October 2011
Cox Plate Preview
A couple of comments on the Caulfield Cup first, if you just want the preview skip down to the bold heading, Cox Plate Preview, scroll a bit further for my attempt to make a case for and against each runner, predictions are at the bottom.
I didn't complete my Caulfield Cup preview last week, I started it, tried to take an angle which didn't completely work, made a prediction, re-read it and decided to tweet my prediction rather than post a nonsensical argument. My tweet read "If anyone upsets December Draw today, the two I keep looking at are Hawk Island and Southern Speed". So as it turns out Hawk Island was not really in contention, however I did mention in the unposted preview how I liked Southern Speed's draw, thought it might lead or be handy as she was in the Underwood, and he had proved she could come home well in the Turnbull.
In the preview I talked about a few historic factors, basically saying
"I went looking for some Caulfield Cup stats, I know history doesn't necessarily influence what will happen on the weekend, but it is always interesting to have a look and see how statistics line up. I assumed the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup Double was more common, I certainly think that if December Draw wins on the weekend the $12 you can get today in the Melbourne Cup will be a bargain, however it is not as common as I thought. It has been completed eleven times. I guess my impression came from the four horses who achieved this between 1991 and 2001, Lets Elope (1991), Doriemus (1994), Might and Power (1994), Ethereal (2001), but it has not happened since (are we due?). Of course other horses have won in different years such as Viewed. Also if you look back at the last twelve cups, eight of the winners have been aged four, there are only five 4YO's remaining in the twenty-two remaining horses.
Here are the last five Caulfield Cup Winners and their closing price at the New Zealand TAB. Not a lot of favourites. Their finishing position in the Melbourne Cup of the same year is in brackets.
2010 Descarado $17.40 (23rd)
2009 Viewed $12.40 (7th) 2008 (1st)
2008 All the Good $47.70 (N/A)
2007 Master O'Reily $5.20 (8th) 2008 (4th) 2009 (4th) 2010 (15th)
2006 Tawqeet $20.65 (19th) 2007 (16th)
Interestingly enough their Melbourne Cup finish actually improved the year after their Caulfield Cup victory, it would be hard for Descarado not to improve, considering finishing would be an improvement, but the $21 on offer at the moment for a horse who looks to be back in form is certainly not bad. In regard to odds, there are currently seven horses in the $12 - $25 range which looks like a sweet spot in recent years, two of those seven are 4YO's, Absolutely and Southern Speed, Absolutely will do it tough from the outside barrier, but Southern Speed looks well placed in this."
Southern Speed finished up paying better than that $12 - $25 range, but at the time she was right in the sweet spot. She ran a near perfect race from the barrier and just had too much in the end. December Draw was not a factor, and as it turns out suffered an injury. I noticed as they rounded the turn he was not in a great position, Michael Rodd used his whip once and then appeared to look down, then basically pull him up. Just wondering if he heard something, I am sure he would have felt that there was something wrong. I am not a vet, but I am sure pushing a horse on an injured leg could have been very dangerous for the health of the horse, so it was excellent awareness and precaution taken by Michael Rodd at that point in a big race.
Cox Plate Preview
On paper the Cox Plate looks significantly more competitive than the Caulfield Cup looked (on paper at least), when the first two favorites finish last and second last a race becomes a lot more competitive. However is there something to be learned from looking back at Cox Plate history.
Since the year 2000 there have been two 3YO winners, one 4YO winner, two 5YO winners, four winners at age six, one at seven, and one at nine. The lone winner as a 4YO was last year with So You Think, who also won at age three. One of the included 5YO winners was Sunline collecting her second consecutive Cox Plate, the next winner at age five was Northerly who went on to win at age six. Looking back further the race appears to have been won most commonly by 4YO's.
Favourites have had a pretty good record in the Cox Plate they win 41% of the time. Since the year 2000, Sunline, Northerly, Makybe Diva and So You Think have won as favourite.
Makybe Diva was the last mare to win the race, the last one prior to that was Sunline. This has not typically been a race which is won by mares.
Six horses have won the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup in the same year.
This year there are four mares in this field (both the emergencies are mares). There is one 8YO, one 7YO, one 6YO, one 5YO, nine 4YO's, and one 3YO (the emergencies are six and four years old). Are we due for a mare to win this race? only two 4YO's in the last eleven years, are we due for another 4YO victory? there are four 4YO mares in this race.
Lets have a look at what the winners have paid over the past eleven races.
The most recent winners have paid (as per NZ TAB)
2010 So You Think - $1.60 (Favourite)
2009 So You Think - $9.50
2008 Maldivian - $10.10
2007 El Segundo -$5.90
2006 Fields of Omagh - $28.25
2005 Makybe Diva - $2.50 (Favourite)
2004 Savabeel - $12.05
2003 Fields of Omagh $15.20
2002 Northerly $4.10 (Favourite)
2001 Northerly $3.70
2000 Sunlline $2.05 (Favourite)
So while favourites have not always won the Cox Plate, it is rare that a real blow-out winner has come through for victory. I think the difference is the Weight for Age conditions, all the horses are well known and proven performers. So You Think in 2009 was a bit of an unknown, we all know how good he is now, this year the lone 3YO is Helmet, it feels like we have a greater understanding of Helmet than we did of So You Think two years ago. Either way favourites have been 4-11 for the last 11 races. The lead up favourite has been the 4YO Jimmy Choux. The favourite has not won in back to back years since 1990 (which topped off a five year run of favourites winning starting with Bonecrusher in 1986). Funnily enough 5/12 is 41.67% which is close to the overall record of favouries in this race, so it is a good sign if Jimmy Choux remains favourite.
Track position is clearly important at Moonee Valley, there is only a couple of hundred meters until the bend, and typically it is good to be handy with the short finishing straight. I was wondering where winners have typically drawn in this race, the last ten (after significant searching I was not able to find Sunline's winning draw in 2000, I did however find this video, amazing!) winning barriers are 2010 - 5, 2009 -7, 2008 - 6, 2007 - 7, 2006 - 7, 2005 - 4, 2004 - 6, 2003 - 6, 2002 - 5, 2001 -3. Barrier seven (Wall Street) and six (Sincero) have proved the lucky barriers over the past ten years, however I suspect some of these winning horses would have been too good regardless of the barrier.
Runner by Runner Cases
In such a quality field you can often make a case for multiple starters, here is the case for why each horse could win, and why each horse might lose this years Cox Plate.
Efficient (5) 59kg
The case for:
Winner of three Group 1 races including a Victoria Derby and a Melbourne Cup.
Won seven races in total, other than 3YO campaign when he won five in a row he has not been in particularly good form leading into victories, 10th, 4th, 11th, 9th before winning the 2007 Melbourne Cup, and 5th and 9th before winning the 2009 Turnbull. This is his third start after a lay-off of around two years.
The owner rates his chances.
The case against:
He has not looked in the greatest form from his two starts back. He will carry even more weight than his 8th in a twelve horse Turnbull field. However the losing margin was only five lengths, it was an improvement on his first run back in the Underwood.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Descardo (9) 59kg
The case for:
He won the Caulfield Stakes last start, leading all the way and taking off around the bend and holding on for Victory.
Looks to be improving and returning to his 2010 form.
Strong second up record.
He will probably have to go forward from barrier nine (was barrier eight and went forward in the Cualfield Stakes) so he could be well placed coming into the final straight.
The case against:
He is carrying an injury, he will be vetted on Friday before the race.
He might not have held on another 40m last week.
A lot of horses will be moving forward to try to be handy, could be tough to get to where he wants to be, and there is a possibility for contact in the early stages he probably wont get the easy start he got last start.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Wall Street (7) 59kg
The case for:
Winner of four Group 1's including one in Melbourne last year.
Won his second start in Melbourne last year after running in the Cox Plate.
Not far off Jimmy Choux two starts back, not far off Kings Rose in a better run in the Toorak.
Winner over 2040m in the past, it looks like he is ready to step up to that distance.
Lucky barrier seven.
The case against:
This is the toughest field he has faced this preparation.
Still more of a 1600m horse rather than 2000m.
With all the speed coming from inside and outside him he may have to try to win this from a bit far back. His best chance will be to settle on the rail and hopefully get an easy run and be in a space to attack. He might try to go forward, but could find himself two or three wide and a bit far back.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
No
Glass Harmonium (4) 59kg
The case for:
Well drawn, can go forward or potentially trail a horse pushing forward from a wide barrier.
Top recent form, close up all three starts, very close second last start to December Draw over 2000m. Looked excellent that start, flying home and comfortably beating the rest of a strong field.
Beat Playing God, Southern Speed (not in this, but won the Caulfield Cup last weekend), Shamrocker and Efficient last start. Beat Playing God, Efficient, Shamrocker (lost to Lion Tamer, Southern Speed) under WFA two starts back.
Most comfortable over 2000m, very rarely completely fails, always seems to go a strong race and put himself in contention.
The case against:
Most suited to handicap conditions.
Not yet a Group 1 winner.
This is the strongest field he has faced this prep, others are more suited to the weight they will have to carry in this race.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Jimmy Choux (10) 57.5kg
The case for:
Winner at 2040m last start at Group 1 level. Won without Jonathan Riddell even having to use the whip. He was back in a bad position on the corner and manage to find a hole through the field for victory.
He will likely have speed either side of him, best case might be to follow them forward and settle two wide in 3rd or forth.
Winner of two Group 1's as a 4YO, winner of three Group 1's at age 3 including one in Australia over 2000m.
Favourites have a good record in the Cox Plate.
4YO's have a good overall record in the Cox Plate (not recently).
The case against:
The wide barrier draw will be difficult to overcome. He will want to be handy towards the last bend and that may require racing wide for a significant portion of the race. If he goes back from the wide draw I don't think he can win this race.
This is much harder than anything he has faced, the winning Group 1 race in Australia was against 3YO's this is a much tougher and more proven field.
I really like Jimmy Choux, I want him to win, it has impaired my judgement and I might be overrating him.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Sincero (6) 57.5kg
The case for:
Eleven wins from seventeen starts.
Winner of two Group 1 races.
Well drawn, should get a comfortable ride behind the speed.
Now familiar going left-handed. Will benefit from having a start over 2000m for the first time.
The case against:
Has not really lived up to the hype in Melbourne.
Most of the eleven victories have come against lower level company. One of the Group 1 victories was a handicap carrying less than 51kgs.
2000m might be a bit too far.
A lot of wide speed might see him back or trapped on the fence.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
No
Lion Tamer (16) 57.5kg
The case for:
Dual Melbourne Group 1 winner, including one at open WFA in the Underwood Stakes.
Looked to have more left at the end of the Underwood.
Was unlucky when he failed to fire in the Caulfield Stakes. He has mixed form in the past and can bounce back from less successful performances.
2nd in the AAMI Vase a year ago on this track over this distance.
The case against:
Maybe more focused on the Melbourne Cup and looking to peak a week from now.
Caulfield Stakes favourite he didn't seem to get itself in a good position to attack.
Has got back in both starts in Melbourne to date this spring, he managed to get off the rail and finish strongly in the Underwood, but got trapped and didn't have a lot of running in the Caulfield Stakes. Word is he will try to go forward from the outside barrier but there is a lot of speed inside him, so he might get caught wide or not get far enough forward.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Playing God (15) 57.5kg
The case for:
Has been in form, came home very well from a bad position in the Underwood, looked like he had more running in the Turnbull putting up a good third to both December Draw and Glass Harmonium, will meet Glass Harmonium at better weights this week.
Proved he can get out of trouble and finish strongly in the Underwood.
The case against:
Both wins at Group 1 level have not been against this quality of field.
Despite strong performances this spring he has not managed to win a race against this very strong company.
Barrier fifteen make his life very difficult, will almost certainly be back and wide.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes, but not likely from that draw
Rekindled Interest (3) 57.5kg
The case for:
Will get a sweet trip from barrier three. Could see him following Glass Harmonium and siting on the rail two or three back.
Might be the first ever Twitter favourite, my Twitter feed was buzzing after his performance at Breakfast with the Best against Jimmy Choux.
He had a good win in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes over a month ago, that race included pretty good form with a good Alcopop performance and Whobegotyou, who was favourite for the Cox Plate at the time.
Winner of last years AAMI Vase on the course and over the distance.
Three starts at Moonee Valley for two wins and a forth.
The case against:
Was fifth in the Turnbull last start, although he came home OK he was still two lengths behind Playing God, he carried 55.5kgs that day, that is the same as Glass Harmonium (who will carry 1.5kg more in this) and 1kg less than Playing God. Possibly would have wanted a better performance there if we are to expect a better performance here.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Shamrocker (1) 55.5kg
The case for:
Has had excuses over the past two starts.
Won and placed in multiple Group 1's as a 3YO, including beating Jimmy Choux.
Should get a good trip from barrier one and at least be in a position to launch towards the finish.
The case against:
Bad luck can sometimes provide an excuse when it is just bad form.She was miles away in the Underwood, and not really close in the Turnbull. She has faced a lot of the contenders in this race already this season without much chance to show she is better. She has the class, but has not shown it this year.
Barrier one may leave her too far back to really compete at the end with all the early speed, she will need to jump well.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
No
Pinker Pinker (12) 55.5kg.
The case for:
Ran a couple of strong races for second following on from her last win at Group 2 level. She has always been consistent as a 3YO, she has won $665k (AUD), but that could very easily be more with some luck with strong performances at Group level. She has built up over distance this year similar to when she was able to produce a strong staying performance in the AJC Oaks.
The case against:
Managed to go four races this spring without really encountering any of the main contenders for any of the major spring races, she beat Avienus and Southen Speed in August and again in the Stocks, beat Sincero in the Epsom. Winning the Lets Elope was not against the strongest field. She ran second to Kings Rose by a close margin, that was possibly the best guide to how she might go here. Barrier twelve is definitely not ideal given how this race may go and she possibly does not have the firepower against this field. If you like Sincero in this then you probably like Pinker Pinker too.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
No
Secret Admirer (8) 55.5kg
The case for:
Won the Epsom and has been close up in three other races this preparation. She has been super consistent from her eight starts with three wins, and four other placings, the other race was a fourth in a Group 2 race. Really flew home over 1600m to win the Epsom, was still way back with 400m to go, so should be able to deal with 2000m.
The case against:
Won the Epsom carrying only 52kgs, WFA conditions are not ideal.
Seems to like to get back in races, or at least stay a bit off the speed, that may make this a challenge.
2000m is a new experience, hard to know how she will go for sure.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
No
Kings Rose (2) 55.5kg
The case for:
Well drawn for a good trip, should not have to run any more than the listed distance, has the ability to be on the pace and has a great turn of foot to attack the finish.
Won twice impressively at Group 2 level under WFA conditions in Melbourne. A good second in the Toorak where she really had to get out of the pack and came home very strongly.
Twice a winner at Group 2 level in New Zealand over the 2000m, so the step up in distance should not be the issue.
The case against:
The wins have been by small margins, they have not been at Group 1 level, this is definitely tougher. One of the wins was not completely open as it was against other mares.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
Yes
Helmet (11) 49.5kg
The case for:
3YO's are so tempting at 49.5kgs under these WFA conditions. 3YO's this good are even more tempting. Helmet put in one of those rare memorable performances in the Caulfield Guineas which we may look back at fondly in the future. He sprinted to the lead and left them, set a pace and basically said that if anyone was going to beat him they would have to give their all and do it right from the start. He was challenged towards the finish by the only other horse who took up his challenge Manawanui, he fought hard to victory.
I could see the same tactics applying here, if he runs that hard out of the gates this will set up a furious pace in this race. He has speed inside him with Descarado likely to try and get forward, and speed outside with Lion Tamer, but he should be able to get across and hit that first bend first if he gets out like he did last start.
Six wins from nine starts with three thirds is pretty consistent.
The case against:
Maybe he doesn't comfortably make the lead, there are possibly a few horses are vying for it, maybe everyone from eight out knows they need to get forward and stay handy, maybe he gets caught three wide around the first bend and increases the distance he has to travel.
2000m is a concern, he has not traveled that far in a race yet, maybe the pace he sets is too hard to keep, he certainly seemed to wear down towards the end of that 1600m Caulfield Guineas.
We may get to find out who this horse really is this weekend.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
I am going to assume neither of the emergencies will start, if they do I still don't really see either of them winning.
Predictions
Top five winning chances
Kings Rose ($16)
Glass Harmonium ($14)
Jimmy Choux ($3)
Rekindled Interest ($10) - maybe I brought into the trackwork hype too much
Efficient ($18)
Top 3 who will make me feel stupid if they win
Helmet ($3.8)- after everything I just wrote
Pinker Pinker ($31)
Sincero ($21)
Top 3 who could make it into my top 5 by start time (check my Twitter on the day)
Helmet ($3.8) - that 49.5kg is so tempting
Descardo ($18) - If he gets the vet's complete OK on Friday
Lion Tamer ($13) - the barrier is just scaring me
Top 3 Value bets
Efficient ($18) - might even get more on the day
Kings Rose ($16)
Glass Harmonium ($14)
Extreme Value bet (Longest shot I could see winning)
Playing God ($41) - might be good place value
Battle for last
Either of the emergencies
Secret Admirer
Wall Street
Shamrocker
I didn't complete my Caulfield Cup preview last week, I started it, tried to take an angle which didn't completely work, made a prediction, re-read it and decided to tweet my prediction rather than post a nonsensical argument. My tweet read "If anyone upsets December Draw today, the two I keep looking at are Hawk Island and Southern Speed". So as it turns out Hawk Island was not really in contention, however I did mention in the unposted preview how I liked Southern Speed's draw, thought it might lead or be handy as she was in the Underwood, and he had proved she could come home well in the Turnbull.
In the preview I talked about a few historic factors, basically saying
"I went looking for some Caulfield Cup stats, I know history doesn't necessarily influence what will happen on the weekend, but it is always interesting to have a look and see how statistics line up. I assumed the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup Double was more common, I certainly think that if December Draw wins on the weekend the $12 you can get today in the Melbourne Cup will be a bargain, however it is not as common as I thought. It has been completed eleven times. I guess my impression came from the four horses who achieved this between 1991 and 2001, Lets Elope (1991), Doriemus (1994), Might and Power (1994), Ethereal (2001), but it has not happened since (are we due?). Of course other horses have won in different years such as Viewed. Also if you look back at the last twelve cups, eight of the winners have been aged four, there are only five 4YO's remaining in the twenty-two remaining horses.
Here are the last five Caulfield Cup Winners and their closing price at the New Zealand TAB. Not a lot of favourites. Their finishing position in the Melbourne Cup of the same year is in brackets.
2010 Descarado $17.40 (23rd)
2009 Viewed $12.40 (7th) 2008 (1st)
2008 All the Good $47.70 (N/A)
2007 Master O'Reily $5.20 (8th) 2008 (4th) 2009 (4th) 2010 (15th)
2006 Tawqeet $20.65 (19th) 2007 (16th)
Interestingly enough their Melbourne Cup finish actually improved the year after their Caulfield Cup victory, it would be hard for Descarado not to improve, considering finishing would be an improvement, but the $21 on offer at the moment for a horse who looks to be back in form is certainly not bad. In regard to odds, there are currently seven horses in the $12 - $25 range which looks like a sweet spot in recent years, two of those seven are 4YO's, Absolutely and Southern Speed, Absolutely will do it tough from the outside barrier, but Southern Speed looks well placed in this."
Southern Speed finished up paying better than that $12 - $25 range, but at the time she was right in the sweet spot. She ran a near perfect race from the barrier and just had too much in the end. December Draw was not a factor, and as it turns out suffered an injury. I noticed as they rounded the turn he was not in a great position, Michael Rodd used his whip once and then appeared to look down, then basically pull him up. Just wondering if he heard something, I am sure he would have felt that there was something wrong. I am not a vet, but I am sure pushing a horse on an injured leg could have been very dangerous for the health of the horse, so it was excellent awareness and precaution taken by Michael Rodd at that point in a big race.
Cox Plate Preview
On paper the Cox Plate looks significantly more competitive than the Caulfield Cup looked (on paper at least), when the first two favorites finish last and second last a race becomes a lot more competitive. However is there something to be learned from looking back at Cox Plate history.
Since the year 2000 there have been two 3YO winners, one 4YO winner, two 5YO winners, four winners at age six, one at seven, and one at nine. The lone winner as a 4YO was last year with So You Think, who also won at age three. One of the included 5YO winners was Sunline collecting her second consecutive Cox Plate, the next winner at age five was Northerly who went on to win at age six. Looking back further the race appears to have been won most commonly by 4YO's.
Favourites have had a pretty good record in the Cox Plate they win 41% of the time. Since the year 2000, Sunline, Northerly, Makybe Diva and So You Think have won as favourite.
Makybe Diva was the last mare to win the race, the last one prior to that was Sunline. This has not typically been a race which is won by mares.
Six horses have won the Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup in the same year.
This year there are four mares in this field (both the emergencies are mares). There is one 8YO, one 7YO, one 6YO, one 5YO, nine 4YO's, and one 3YO (the emergencies are six and four years old). Are we due for a mare to win this race? only two 4YO's in the last eleven years, are we due for another 4YO victory? there are four 4YO mares in this race.
Lets have a look at what the winners have paid over the past eleven races.
The most recent winners have paid (as per NZ TAB)
2010 So You Think - $1.60 (Favourite)
2009 So You Think - $9.50
2008 Maldivian - $10.10
2007 El Segundo -$5.90
2006 Fields of Omagh - $28.25
2005 Makybe Diva - $2.50 (Favourite)
2004 Savabeel - $12.05
2003 Fields of Omagh $15.20
2002 Northerly $4.10 (Favourite)
2001 Northerly $3.70
2000 Sunlline $2.05 (Favourite)
So while favourites have not always won the Cox Plate, it is rare that a real blow-out winner has come through for victory. I think the difference is the Weight for Age conditions, all the horses are well known and proven performers. So You Think in 2009 was a bit of an unknown, we all know how good he is now, this year the lone 3YO is Helmet, it feels like we have a greater understanding of Helmet than we did of So You Think two years ago. Either way favourites have been 4-11 for the last 11 races. The lead up favourite has been the 4YO Jimmy Choux. The favourite has not won in back to back years since 1990 (which topped off a five year run of favourites winning starting with Bonecrusher in 1986). Funnily enough 5/12 is 41.67% which is close to the overall record of favouries in this race, so it is a good sign if Jimmy Choux remains favourite.
Track position is clearly important at Moonee Valley, there is only a couple of hundred meters until the bend, and typically it is good to be handy with the short finishing straight. I was wondering where winners have typically drawn in this race, the last ten (after significant searching I was not able to find Sunline's winning draw in 2000, I did however find this video, amazing!) winning barriers are 2010 - 5, 2009 -7, 2008 - 6, 2007 - 7, 2006 - 7, 2005 - 4, 2004 - 6, 2003 - 6, 2002 - 5, 2001 -3. Barrier seven (Wall Street) and six (Sincero) have proved the lucky barriers over the past ten years, however I suspect some of these winning horses would have been too good regardless of the barrier.
Runner by Runner Cases
In such a quality field you can often make a case for multiple starters, here is the case for why each horse could win, and why each horse might lose this years Cox Plate.
Efficient (5) 59kg
The case for:
Winner of three Group 1 races including a Victoria Derby and a Melbourne Cup.
Won seven races in total, other than 3YO campaign when he won five in a row he has not been in particularly good form leading into victories, 10th, 4th, 11th, 9th before winning the 2007 Melbourne Cup, and 5th and 9th before winning the 2009 Turnbull. This is his third start after a lay-off of around two years.
The owner rates his chances.
The case against:
He has not looked in the greatest form from his two starts back. He will carry even more weight than his 8th in a twelve horse Turnbull field. However the losing margin was only five lengths, it was an improvement on his first run back in the Underwood.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Descardo (9) 59kg
The case for:
He won the Caulfield Stakes last start, leading all the way and taking off around the bend and holding on for Victory.
Looks to be improving and returning to his 2010 form.
Strong second up record.
He will probably have to go forward from barrier nine (was barrier eight and went forward in the Cualfield Stakes) so he could be well placed coming into the final straight.
The case against:
He is carrying an injury, he will be vetted on Friday before the race.
He might not have held on another 40m last week.
A lot of horses will be moving forward to try to be handy, could be tough to get to where he wants to be, and there is a possibility for contact in the early stages he probably wont get the easy start he got last start.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Wall Street (7) 59kg
The case for:
Winner of four Group 1's including one in Melbourne last year.
Won his second start in Melbourne last year after running in the Cox Plate.
Not far off Jimmy Choux two starts back, not far off Kings Rose in a better run in the Toorak.
Winner over 2040m in the past, it looks like he is ready to step up to that distance.
Lucky barrier seven.
The case against:
This is the toughest field he has faced this preparation.
Still more of a 1600m horse rather than 2000m.
With all the speed coming from inside and outside him he may have to try to win this from a bit far back. His best chance will be to settle on the rail and hopefully get an easy run and be in a space to attack. He might try to go forward, but could find himself two or three wide and a bit far back.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
No
Glass Harmonium (4) 59kg
The case for:
Well drawn, can go forward or potentially trail a horse pushing forward from a wide barrier.
Top recent form, close up all three starts, very close second last start to December Draw over 2000m. Looked excellent that start, flying home and comfortably beating the rest of a strong field.
Beat Playing God, Southern Speed (not in this, but won the Caulfield Cup last weekend), Shamrocker and Efficient last start. Beat Playing God, Efficient, Shamrocker (lost to Lion Tamer, Southern Speed) under WFA two starts back.
Most comfortable over 2000m, very rarely completely fails, always seems to go a strong race and put himself in contention.
The case against:
Most suited to handicap conditions.
Not yet a Group 1 winner.
This is the strongest field he has faced this prep, others are more suited to the weight they will have to carry in this race.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Jimmy Choux (10) 57.5kg
The case for:
Winner at 2040m last start at Group 1 level. Won without Jonathan Riddell even having to use the whip. He was back in a bad position on the corner and manage to find a hole through the field for victory.
He will likely have speed either side of him, best case might be to follow them forward and settle two wide in 3rd or forth.
Winner of two Group 1's as a 4YO, winner of three Group 1's at age 3 including one in Australia over 2000m.
Favourites have a good record in the Cox Plate.
4YO's have a good overall record in the Cox Plate (not recently).
The case against:
The wide barrier draw will be difficult to overcome. He will want to be handy towards the last bend and that may require racing wide for a significant portion of the race. If he goes back from the wide draw I don't think he can win this race.
This is much harder than anything he has faced, the winning Group 1 race in Australia was against 3YO's this is a much tougher and more proven field.
I really like Jimmy Choux, I want him to win, it has impaired my judgement and I might be overrating him.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Sincero (6) 57.5kg
The case for:
Eleven wins from seventeen starts.
Winner of two Group 1 races.
Well drawn, should get a comfortable ride behind the speed.
Now familiar going left-handed. Will benefit from having a start over 2000m for the first time.
The case against:
Has not really lived up to the hype in Melbourne.
Most of the eleven victories have come against lower level company. One of the Group 1 victories was a handicap carrying less than 51kgs.
2000m might be a bit too far.
A lot of wide speed might see him back or trapped on the fence.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
No
Lion Tamer (16) 57.5kg
The case for:
Dual Melbourne Group 1 winner, including one at open WFA in the Underwood Stakes.
Looked to have more left at the end of the Underwood.
Was unlucky when he failed to fire in the Caulfield Stakes. He has mixed form in the past and can bounce back from less successful performances.
2nd in the AAMI Vase a year ago on this track over this distance.
The case against:
Maybe more focused on the Melbourne Cup and looking to peak a week from now.
Caulfield Stakes favourite he didn't seem to get itself in a good position to attack.
Has got back in both starts in Melbourne to date this spring, he managed to get off the rail and finish strongly in the Underwood, but got trapped and didn't have a lot of running in the Caulfield Stakes. Word is he will try to go forward from the outside barrier but there is a lot of speed inside him, so he might get caught wide or not get far enough forward.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Playing God (15) 57.5kg
The case for:
Has been in form, came home very well from a bad position in the Underwood, looked like he had more running in the Turnbull putting up a good third to both December Draw and Glass Harmonium, will meet Glass Harmonium at better weights this week.
Proved he can get out of trouble and finish strongly in the Underwood.
The case against:
Both wins at Group 1 level have not been against this quality of field.
Despite strong performances this spring he has not managed to win a race against this very strong company.
Barrier fifteen make his life very difficult, will almost certainly be back and wide.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes, but not likely from that draw
Rekindled Interest (3) 57.5kg
The case for:
Will get a sweet trip from barrier three. Could see him following Glass Harmonium and siting on the rail two or three back.
Might be the first ever Twitter favourite, my Twitter feed was buzzing after his performance at Breakfast with the Best against Jimmy Choux.
He had a good win in the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes over a month ago, that race included pretty good form with a good Alcopop performance and Whobegotyou, who was favourite for the Cox Plate at the time.
Winner of last years AAMI Vase on the course and over the distance.
Three starts at Moonee Valley for two wins and a forth.
The case against:
Was fifth in the Turnbull last start, although he came home OK he was still two lengths behind Playing God, he carried 55.5kgs that day, that is the same as Glass Harmonium (who will carry 1.5kg more in this) and 1kg less than Playing God. Possibly would have wanted a better performance there if we are to expect a better performance here.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
Shamrocker (1) 55.5kg
The case for:
Has had excuses over the past two starts.
Won and placed in multiple Group 1's as a 3YO, including beating Jimmy Choux.
Should get a good trip from barrier one and at least be in a position to launch towards the finish.
The case against:
Bad luck can sometimes provide an excuse when it is just bad form.She was miles away in the Underwood, and not really close in the Turnbull. She has faced a lot of the contenders in this race already this season without much chance to show she is better. She has the class, but has not shown it this year.
Barrier one may leave her too far back to really compete at the end with all the early speed, she will need to jump well.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
No
Pinker Pinker (12) 55.5kg.
The case for:
Ran a couple of strong races for second following on from her last win at Group 2 level. She has always been consistent as a 3YO, she has won $665k (AUD), but that could very easily be more with some luck with strong performances at Group level. She has built up over distance this year similar to when she was able to produce a strong staying performance in the AJC Oaks.
The case against:
Managed to go four races this spring without really encountering any of the main contenders for any of the major spring races, she beat Avienus and Southen Speed in August and again in the Stocks, beat Sincero in the Epsom. Winning the Lets Elope was not against the strongest field. She ran second to Kings Rose by a close margin, that was possibly the best guide to how she might go here. Barrier twelve is definitely not ideal given how this race may go and she possibly does not have the firepower against this field. If you like Sincero in this then you probably like Pinker Pinker too.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
No
Secret Admirer (8) 55.5kg
The case for:
Won the Epsom and has been close up in three other races this preparation. She has been super consistent from her eight starts with three wins, and four other placings, the other race was a fourth in a Group 2 race. Really flew home over 1600m to win the Epsom, was still way back with 400m to go, so should be able to deal with 2000m.
The case against:
Won the Epsom carrying only 52kgs, WFA conditions are not ideal.
Seems to like to get back in races, or at least stay a bit off the speed, that may make this a challenge.
2000m is a new experience, hard to know how she will go for sure.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
No
Kings Rose (2) 55.5kg
The case for:
Well drawn for a good trip, should not have to run any more than the listed distance, has the ability to be on the pace and has a great turn of foot to attack the finish.
Won twice impressively at Group 2 level under WFA conditions in Melbourne. A good second in the Toorak where she really had to get out of the pack and came home very strongly.
Twice a winner at Group 2 level in New Zealand over the 2000m, so the step up in distance should not be the issue.
The case against:
The wins have been by small margins, they have not been at Group 1 level, this is definitely tougher. One of the wins was not completely open as it was against other mares.
Could I realistically see her winning this?
Yes
Helmet (11) 49.5kg
The case for:
3YO's are so tempting at 49.5kgs under these WFA conditions. 3YO's this good are even more tempting. Helmet put in one of those rare memorable performances in the Caulfield Guineas which we may look back at fondly in the future. He sprinted to the lead and left them, set a pace and basically said that if anyone was going to beat him they would have to give their all and do it right from the start. He was challenged towards the finish by the only other horse who took up his challenge Manawanui, he fought hard to victory.
I could see the same tactics applying here, if he runs that hard out of the gates this will set up a furious pace in this race. He has speed inside him with Descarado likely to try and get forward, and speed outside with Lion Tamer, but he should be able to get across and hit that first bend first if he gets out like he did last start.
Six wins from nine starts with three thirds is pretty consistent.
The case against:
Maybe he doesn't comfortably make the lead, there are possibly a few horses are vying for it, maybe everyone from eight out knows they need to get forward and stay handy, maybe he gets caught three wide around the first bend and increases the distance he has to travel.
2000m is a concern, he has not traveled that far in a race yet, maybe the pace he sets is too hard to keep, he certainly seemed to wear down towards the end of that 1600m Caulfield Guineas.
We may get to find out who this horse really is this weekend.
Could I realistically see him winning this?
Yes
I am going to assume neither of the emergencies will start, if they do I still don't really see either of them winning.
Predictions
Top five winning chances
Kings Rose ($16)
Glass Harmonium ($14)
Jimmy Choux ($3)
Rekindled Interest ($10) - maybe I brought into the trackwork hype too much
Efficient ($18)
Top 3 who will make me feel stupid if they win
Helmet ($3.8)- after everything I just wrote
Pinker Pinker ($31)
Sincero ($21)
Top 3 who could make it into my top 5 by start time (check my Twitter on the day)
Helmet ($3.8) - that 49.5kg is so tempting
Descardo ($18) - If he gets the vet's complete OK on Friday
Lion Tamer ($13) - the barrier is just scaring me
Top 3 Value bets
Efficient ($18) - might even get more on the day
Kings Rose ($16)
Glass Harmonium ($14)
Extreme Value bet (Longest shot I could see winning)
Playing God ($41) - might be good place value
Battle for last
Either of the emergencies
Secret Admirer
Wall Street
Shamrocker
Wednesday 12 October 2011
Where are they now?
Although this is the type of question one might typically ask about an old high school colleague, in this post we will not be digging into the annuals of history, but merely catching up with some friends who we will see again in the near future. At this time of year there is so much racing going on, and so many horses aiming for big races on both sides of the Tasman. It is not unusual to scan a field and see a familiar name, and think "how do I know that name?" or "I didn't realise that horse was racing over there?" I find it most often happens with 4YO's, you become so familiar with a group of 3YO's all competing against each other, then as they step up to the next level they start to target open fields, classify themselves by distance, or move overseas. Today I want to see where they are, what they might be targeting, and what their chances may be.
The Obvious Ones
Jimmy Choux
How do I know that name? Aside from the fact he will get some main stream press. As a Three Year Old he won the Rosehill Guineas, New Zealand Derby, 2000 Guineas.
What has he done since? He has had a great start to his 4YO campaign, winning two Group 1's and coming second in the other.
What's next? He is heading to Melbourne where he is favourite in the Cox Plate
Lion Tamer
How do I know that name? He win the 2010 Victorian Derby.
What has he done since? Came back strongly to win the WFA Underwood Stakes, it was a strong win which put him in Melbourne Cup contention. This was followed up by running second last in the Caulfield Stakes, a race where he didn't seem to get any luck early on and didn't finish as well as as you would expect.
What's next? I looks like he will start in both the Cox Plate and the Melbourne Cup. He most likely wont start as a favourite, but he has proved he is capable in Melbourne, and will likely carry 54kg in the Cup, so there is still a lot to like.
Kings Rose
How do I know that name? She won the New Zealand Thousand Guineas, and the Sir Tristram Fillies amongst other races
What has she done since? Now trained in Melbourne, she has had a great start to the season. Winning Two Group 2 Races, and running second to an inform Mufhasa in the Group 1 Toorak.
What's next? It is not completely oblivious, she is nominated in the Cox Plate ($18), I think she has proved herself over that distance in the past, but it still looks like a tough field, she could go very well and at $18 is pretty good value. A race like the Myer Classic could also appeal given her recent record.
Scarlett Lady
How do I know that name? Winner of the Queensland Oaks, won 6 in a row before the Spring .
What has she done since? Good run in the Makfi in New Zealand, was unlucky in the Underwood, but ran home well.
What's next? Unfortunately she suffered an injury in the Underwood, it looks like she will be out of racing until late summer.
New Zealand Oaks Contenders
Midnight Oil
How do I know that name? Winner New Zealand Oaks
What has she done since? That was her last start in New Zealand, capping off a solid yet unpredictable 3YO year.
Whats next? Who knows, no seriously, if you know leave a comment, I cant find any indication through Google, NZ Racing, or Australian Racing Websites.
Zennista
How do I know that name? In addition to her 2nd in the New Zealand Oaks she raced well, particularly early as at 3YO.
What has she done since? One start at Rating 90 as a 4YO, for forth.
Whats next? No nominations in New Zealand are listed on her New Zealand Racing Profile. You can imagine she is looking to continue to build on that fourth.
Dating
How do I know that name? Dating had a great 2YO year, and a competitive 3YO year, winning at Group 3 level before heading to Sydney and competing in the AJC Oaks.
What has she doe since? She has had one start as a 4YO, a very good eye catching win in a top field of Mares at Group 3 Level, many in that race will have big plans this spring.
Whats Next? She is nominated in the Coupland Bakeries Mile, and she probably has a good shot, she is currently paying $10 after that win. It has also been reported she might be looking towards Melbourne and possibly the Myer Classic, however it does not appear a decision has been made.
New Zealand Derby Contenders
He's Remarkable
How do I know that name? Second New Zealand 2000 Guineas, ran in New Zealand Derby
What has he done since? Competed in the Rosehill Guineas and AJC Derby. Come back inspired as a 4YO winning his first two starts at Rating 90 level very solidly.
Whats next? Coupland Bakeries Mile, he is currently the favourite ($4). Looks like a good target but could be competitive with some of the older horses and Twlight Savings.
Icepin
How do I know that name? Won the Avondale Guineas, super consistent as at 3YO, competitive and winning a number of significant races.
What has he done since? Has not started since the Derby.
Whats next? He was a very talented 3YO and 2YO, sill surely continue when he returns at a 4YO. Not sure when that is likely to be.
Banchee
How do I know that name? Banchee was scratched in the Derby despite a promising runner on the back of a strong year as a 3YO. Winner at Group 1 level as a 2YO, she looks good particularly over a mile as a 3YO.
What has she done since? She had another Group 1 start as a 3YO, she won her only start as a 4YO to date in a small R90 at Taupo.
Whats next? She is nominated in the Couplands Bakeries Mile ($18), however word is this John Sargent trained runner could be another who might end up in the Myer Classic, which is looking like it could be a destination for a number of top Kiwi Mares, however it looks like Sargent is leaving this decision to the Vela's. I like Banchee, I think she has had some bad luck in certain races in her career and could be a real challenger for the CB mile, she could definitely go well over 1600m in Melbourne too.
Levin Classic
We Can Say It now
How do I know that name? Winner of the Levin Classic, also beat the older horses in the Captain Cook Stakes.
What has she done since? Her last start as a 3YO was a 5th in an excellent field in Hamilton, she then went to the Australian Guineas where she finished 14th.
Whats next? It appeared she was on her way to Dubai. She did not start in the Dubai Duty Free. It appears she has been retired.
New Zealand 2000 Guineas
Twlight Savings
How do I know that name? She was placed in both 2000 and 1000 Guineas. She also won an Open WFA race in Rotorua in impressive fashion prior to the 2000 Guineas.
What has she done since? She has at Three Starts as a 4YO with Two wins and an impressive third, one of the wins was at Group 3 level. In the third she absolutely flew home with Guiseppina who is highly rated herself for obvious reasons, her last win was sensational, going forward and dominating the pace before taking off for victory.
Whats next? She is nominated for the Coupland Mile, currently is second favourite ($5), I think she is probably a bit better than He's Remarkable right now and could win that race. It appears she is doing something different as she is one of the few Kiwi Mares not aiming for the Myer Classic, at least a good search reveals no such plans at this stage.
Remember Howe
How do I know that name? Surprisingly she has only won two races, one at Group 3 and one at Listed level. I say surprisingly because she was not that far away from winning more, with five seconds, three thirds and three fourths (including her four starts at age four).
What has she done since? Continued her form, 4322 from her past four starts.
Whats next? A win at some point you could assume, she is not nominated for any major races at this point but again you may see her in some later in the year.
Cellarmaster
How do I know that name? Cellarmaster had a very strong year as a 2YO, he was not able to reproduce the wins or Group 1 placings at age three. Remember Cellarmaster vs Jimmy Choux was a legitimate debate at age two.
What has he done since? His last New Zealand start was in December last year. He then raced the remainder of his 3YO year in Australia, he recorded a win in June. He has one start at age four where he finished 6th to the likes of Whobegotyou and Lights of Heaven.
Whats next? Probably more races in Aussie, looking for more black type.
Hoofit
How do I know that name? If you read this blog I talked about his win in the Bonecrusher Stakes here.
What has he done since? Not much in New Zealand, but I recently read he is in the USA and winning.
Whats next? Maybe the Breeders Cup Sprint.
New Zealand Thousand Guineas
Smoulder
How do I know that name? She ran third in the Thousand Guineas, she improved and went on to win at Group 2 level in the Eight Carat Classic, and then finish second to Barinka in the New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes.
What has she done since? Placed in the Foxbridge Plate, she has at one start at Flemington.
Whats next? It would only be speculation to say that she has a target in the Myer Classic, but certainly more races in Australia appear to be on the cards.
Others
Fleur de Lune
How do I know that name? She was Group 1 placed at 3YO and won three other races.
What has she done since? She has placed in two other Group races including a third to Mufhasa and Jimmy Choux
Whats next? She ran on the weekend at the Taranaki Breeders Stakes, she came tenth which was her worst race day placing. She holds no other nominations in New Zealand, at one point she held a nomination for the Cox Plate, so maybe Melbourne is still the target this spring.
Guiseppina
How do I know that name? I mentioned her earlier. She was highly rated at age three. She won four races, but did not fire when favourite at Group 1 level.
What has she done since? Ran a good second at Open Handicap level, She was then unlucky on the weekend at Group 3 level in the Taranaki Breeders Stakes.
Whats next? She may be another going to Melbourne.
You are now caught up with some of your favourite 3YO's from last year, many have started off well back in New Zealand and are heading over to the big money in Melbourne. Look for others to return in the coming months and return to the form which saw them running in New Zealand's biggest races for 3YO's.
The Obvious Ones
Jimmy Choux
How do I know that name? Aside from the fact he will get some main stream press. As a Three Year Old he won the Rosehill Guineas, New Zealand Derby, 2000 Guineas.
What has he done since? He has had a great start to his 4YO campaign, winning two Group 1's and coming second in the other.
What's next? He is heading to Melbourne where he is favourite in the Cox Plate
Lion Tamer
How do I know that name? He win the 2010 Victorian Derby.
What has he done since? Came back strongly to win the WFA Underwood Stakes, it was a strong win which put him in Melbourne Cup contention. This was followed up by running second last in the Caulfield Stakes, a race where he didn't seem to get any luck early on and didn't finish as well as as you would expect.
What's next? I looks like he will start in both the Cox Plate and the Melbourne Cup. He most likely wont start as a favourite, but he has proved he is capable in Melbourne, and will likely carry 54kg in the Cup, so there is still a lot to like.
Kings Rose
How do I know that name? She won the New Zealand Thousand Guineas, and the Sir Tristram Fillies amongst other races
What has she done since? Now trained in Melbourne, she has had a great start to the season. Winning Two Group 2 Races, and running second to an inform Mufhasa in the Group 1 Toorak.
What's next? It is not completely oblivious, she is nominated in the Cox Plate ($18), I think she has proved herself over that distance in the past, but it still looks like a tough field, she could go very well and at $18 is pretty good value. A race like the Myer Classic could also appeal given her recent record.
Scarlett Lady
How do I know that name? Winner of the Queensland Oaks, won 6 in a row before the Spring .
What has she done since? Good run in the Makfi in New Zealand, was unlucky in the Underwood, but ran home well.
What's next? Unfortunately she suffered an injury in the Underwood, it looks like she will be out of racing until late summer.
New Zealand Oaks Contenders
Midnight Oil
How do I know that name? Winner New Zealand Oaks
What has she done since? That was her last start in New Zealand, capping off a solid yet unpredictable 3YO year.
Whats next? Who knows, no seriously, if you know leave a comment, I cant find any indication through Google, NZ Racing, or Australian Racing Websites.
Zennista
How do I know that name? In addition to her 2nd in the New Zealand Oaks she raced well, particularly early as at 3YO.
What has she done since? One start at Rating 90 as a 4YO, for forth.
Whats next? No nominations in New Zealand are listed on her New Zealand Racing Profile. You can imagine she is looking to continue to build on that fourth.
Dating
How do I know that name? Dating had a great 2YO year, and a competitive 3YO year, winning at Group 3 level before heading to Sydney and competing in the AJC Oaks.
What has she doe since? She has had one start as a 4YO, a very good eye catching win in a top field of Mares at Group 3 Level, many in that race will have big plans this spring.
Whats Next? She is nominated in the Coupland Bakeries Mile, and she probably has a good shot, she is currently paying $10 after that win. It has also been reported she might be looking towards Melbourne and possibly the Myer Classic, however it does not appear a decision has been made.
New Zealand Derby Contenders
He's Remarkable
How do I know that name? Second New Zealand 2000 Guineas, ran in New Zealand Derby
What has he done since? Competed in the Rosehill Guineas and AJC Derby. Come back inspired as a 4YO winning his first two starts at Rating 90 level very solidly.
Whats next? Coupland Bakeries Mile, he is currently the favourite ($4). Looks like a good target but could be competitive with some of the older horses and Twlight Savings.
Icepin
How do I know that name? Won the Avondale Guineas, super consistent as at 3YO, competitive and winning a number of significant races.
What has he done since? Has not started since the Derby.
Whats next? He was a very talented 3YO and 2YO, sill surely continue when he returns at a 4YO. Not sure when that is likely to be.
Banchee
How do I know that name? Banchee was scratched in the Derby despite a promising runner on the back of a strong year as a 3YO. Winner at Group 1 level as a 2YO, she looks good particularly over a mile as a 3YO.
What has she done since? She had another Group 1 start as a 3YO, she won her only start as a 4YO to date in a small R90 at Taupo.
Whats next? She is nominated in the Couplands Bakeries Mile ($18), however word is this John Sargent trained runner could be another who might end up in the Myer Classic, which is looking like it could be a destination for a number of top Kiwi Mares, however it looks like Sargent is leaving this decision to the Vela's. I like Banchee, I think she has had some bad luck in certain races in her career and could be a real challenger for the CB mile, she could definitely go well over 1600m in Melbourne too.
Levin Classic
We Can Say It now
How do I know that name? Winner of the Levin Classic, also beat the older horses in the Captain Cook Stakes.
What has she done since? Her last start as a 3YO was a 5th in an excellent field in Hamilton, she then went to the Australian Guineas where she finished 14th.
Whats next? It appeared she was on her way to Dubai. She did not start in the Dubai Duty Free. It appears she has been retired.
New Zealand 2000 Guineas
Twlight Savings
How do I know that name? She was placed in both 2000 and 1000 Guineas. She also won an Open WFA race in Rotorua in impressive fashion prior to the 2000 Guineas.
What has she done since? She has at Three Starts as a 4YO with Two wins and an impressive third, one of the wins was at Group 3 level. In the third she absolutely flew home with Guiseppina who is highly rated herself for obvious reasons, her last win was sensational, going forward and dominating the pace before taking off for victory.
Whats next? She is nominated for the Coupland Mile, currently is second favourite ($5), I think she is probably a bit better than He's Remarkable right now and could win that race. It appears she is doing something different as she is one of the few Kiwi Mares not aiming for the Myer Classic, at least a good search reveals no such plans at this stage.
Remember Howe
How do I know that name? Surprisingly she has only won two races, one at Group 3 and one at Listed level. I say surprisingly because she was not that far away from winning more, with five seconds, three thirds and three fourths (including her four starts at age four).
What has she done since? Continued her form, 4322 from her past four starts.
Whats next? A win at some point you could assume, she is not nominated for any major races at this point but again you may see her in some later in the year.
Cellarmaster
How do I know that name? Cellarmaster had a very strong year as a 2YO, he was not able to reproduce the wins or Group 1 placings at age three. Remember Cellarmaster vs Jimmy Choux was a legitimate debate at age two.
What has he done since? His last New Zealand start was in December last year. He then raced the remainder of his 3YO year in Australia, he recorded a win in June. He has one start at age four where he finished 6th to the likes of Whobegotyou and Lights of Heaven.
Whats next? Probably more races in Aussie, looking for more black type.
Hoofit
How do I know that name? If you read this blog I talked about his win in the Bonecrusher Stakes here.
What has he done since? Not much in New Zealand, but I recently read he is in the USA and winning.
Whats next? Maybe the Breeders Cup Sprint.
New Zealand Thousand Guineas
Smoulder
How do I know that name? She ran third in the Thousand Guineas, she improved and went on to win at Group 2 level in the Eight Carat Classic, and then finish second to Barinka in the New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes.
What has she done since? Placed in the Foxbridge Plate, she has at one start at Flemington.
Whats next? It would only be speculation to say that she has a target in the Myer Classic, but certainly more races in Australia appear to be on the cards.
Others
Fleur de Lune
How do I know that name? She was Group 1 placed at 3YO and won three other races.
What has she done since? She has placed in two other Group races including a third to Mufhasa and Jimmy Choux
Whats next? She ran on the weekend at the Taranaki Breeders Stakes, she came tenth which was her worst race day placing. She holds no other nominations in New Zealand, at one point she held a nomination for the Cox Plate, so maybe Melbourne is still the target this spring.
Guiseppina
How do I know that name? I mentioned her earlier. She was highly rated at age three. She won four races, but did not fire when favourite at Group 1 level.
What has she done since? Ran a good second at Open Handicap level, She was then unlucky on the weekend at Group 3 level in the Taranaki Breeders Stakes.
Whats next? She may be another going to Melbourne.
You are now caught up with some of your favourite 3YO's from last year, many have started off well back in New Zealand and are heading over to the big money in Melbourne. Look for others to return in the coming months and return to the form which saw them running in New Zealand's biggest races for 3YO's.
Friday 7 October 2011
Small Steps: Improving the Racing Experience
Author's Note: This is more of an essay than the other articles in this site. I am looking to cover ways to enhance the fan experience of Racing, ways which might draw new people to racing, or hook those who might attend the occasional meeting. Most of these will involve the home experience, and relatively small, simple and cheap ideas for improvement.
How popular is Horse Racing in New Zealand? it is certainly reasonably large business, according to the New Zealand Racing Board racing contributes around 1.3% of New Zealand's GDP (based on a study in 2003), Waikato Stud sites a similar number which may be based on the same study. Turnover from racing on and off course was roughly $1.4 billion in 2010, of which only about 5.5% of that total was on course, through the first half of 2011 turnover is looking slightly increased with roughly 6% of that on course.
Without more in-depth knowledge of the make up of those numbers it is hard to determine the contribution of the three codes incorporated in that number, it is also hard to determine the contribution from big bettors verses smaller punters, however as that number is purely turnover one could assume larger players make a significant contribution to that $1.4 billion. So it is not really possible to tell the number of people frequently contributing to this total, and the overall popularity of racing (of course it is possible to enjoy and follow racing without making any contribution to turnover).
The one telling piece of information is that the majority of revenue is derived through off course channels which must include the local TAB, TAB machines in bars, and placing bets from home or anywhere over the phone or Internet. Two years ago popularity was sufficient to warrant another dedicated racing TV channel, of course this was also a way to offer more racing, but there must have been a demand for this.
Possibly the best way to ask a question of popularity is not to ask how popular is racing? but to ask, why is horse racing not more popular? Even if you remove the gambling aspect from the racing there is still a lot to offer, you get to watch two highly skilled athletes, man (or Woman as the case may be) trying to tame a sometimes uncooperative beast and get the best performance from it; there is fast pace, tight finishes, frequent underdog stories; it is highly accessible and a traditional Kiwi pass time; there are compelling characters from the broadcast booth through the trainers, owners, jockeys and you can even include the horses themselves; there is also a danger aspect which tends to draw some people to certain sports. Without the wagering side racing still offers a chance to prove your skill and pick winners, with the gambling comes a way to potentially increase the excitement by adding a risk and reward factor. It is not necessarily more expensive than following the All Blacks if you enjoy the competition for what it is.
When you watch racing on TV you typically see a scattering of people in attendance at the course. The only times you see more is the major race days. What is the difference between these days and a regular Saturday? generally the quality of racing is higher, the racing feels special and a day at the races feels like an event, the other difference revolves around promotion and the amount which goes into the bigger days. Ellerslie racecourse is great at hosting events and parties they have the advantage of a large population to draw from, a thriving social scene which likes that type of event, and leading racing to back it up. I am sure Ellerslie has a promotional budget for advertising things like Auckland Cup Week and Whips and Spurs, but they also have an excellent Twitter and Facebook presence, and the advantage of putting on great events which lead to spreading word of mouth. Is there a hook? how many people who attend these events and even have a bet at these events will go on to follow racing more closely? many wont even think of it until the next party.
Should the racing industry even be worried about attracting crowds and increasing on-course turnover? clearly the clubs have something at stake with on-course turnover, however as a whole other than the big race days is it better to attend a meeting than watch it at home? Flick on a Super 15 game some time, you will almost certainly notice a difference in the sizes of the crowds in New Zealand, Australia and South Africa, they have bigger populations to draw from, but they also have larger stadiums to fill, this is New Zealand's national game, a New Zealand team has won the competition eleven out of sixteen years, and it doesn't cost much to get a ticket to most of these games. Maybe it is just more fun to watch a game at home or in a pub (an argument which can now be seen frequently), large screen TV's, high definition, replays, pause, rewind, change channels, surround sound, the ability to walk away if the game is not up to standard.
The TV is not the only place you can get up close to Rugby, online you can connect and communicate with your favourite player through Facebook or Twitter, there is an overload of information and analysis, rumour and banter can be exchanged on message boards. The fan experience beyond the stadium is excellent, you can be the biggest fan and not have to attend a single game, in fact with a laptop on your knee you can watch the game and communicate with other big fans on-line. If you want to go to a game you can pick and choose the bigger games with the better atmosphere and more at stake.
Racing has a great TV experience, two channels dedicated to racing from around the world. But whether you are going to the track or watching on TV it is still a full days commitment. The advent of MySky and other DVR helps this problem, the New Zealand Racing website has video of most races available, however the website seems to work infrequently, NZRacing has a decent YouTube channel, but it only features main races. Why not put all of the races on YouTube? which makes the maintenance of it their problem and then simply have links on the NZ Racing page next to the results, or put them in a way you can watch the race and then reveal the result.
The good thing about watching racing on TV is that there is constant racing, you can watch five or more race meetings at once if you choose, but it does leave you feeling a bit cold. It is constant racing with a couple of short interviews, most of the days previews are on the First Call which is before racing gets started for the day. It is always good to hear from trainers, jockeys, and owners after races, to see presentations, but also to hear more in-depth analysis of races after the event, it is understandable that money is generated through having more races to bet on, but it would be interesting to know how much more the personalities could resonate if they had a voice, it is clear people in New Zealand frequently bet with their hears rather than their heads, and patriotism takes over, why not give more access to the 'stars' of the racing industry and see if a sense of loyalty is generated. This doesn't need to interfere with the economics of broadcasting racing on a daily basis, but why not utilise YouTube for this purpose to showcase the personalities.
Small Step 1: Better utilisation of YouTube in conjunction with the television channels is a simple change which is reasonably inexpensive and would enhance the fan experience.
The TAB released a mobile friendly website earlier this year (m.tab.co.nz), it is a simple way to wager or look at odds on the go. Why do they not have an application for use on iPad/iPhone and Android devices? this seems like a simple next step (I say this as someone who works in the IT industry), it is a good way to integrate the web page with racing information and even include video or links to the YouTube channel to further integrate technology. Tablet PC's are ideal for scanning form (which can be done at present by downloading a .pdf file), and an app can offer links for more information or directly to place a bet. New Zealand Bloodstock has taken up the challenge and is using an iPad application for their latest catalogue it is a perfect example of the power of this type of technology, a buyer can have this in their hand for easy access to information or take it anywhere for an easy ability to look up information. A tablet would be an ideal tool to have either at home or at the track for placing bets and looking up information. The problem is of course if you are at the track placing bets using technology then the course may get cut out of the equation, it is hard to believe that courses don't offer free Wi-Fi, but understandable they have the concern that they will lose money from someone who has already taken the time to be on course but is then betting remotely. This is a deeper problem, the simple solution is to provide Wi-Fi and treat all bets coming through that IP address as 'on-course', the clubs can still get their share, and the fan gets an improved experience.
Why not offer free Wi-Fi in TAB outlets and more importantly pubs? not only would access to an application give more knowledge to people in these outlets, but it would allow for an ease of betting, and more trackable information for the TAB, particularly in a pub environment where they have automatic machines which must be connected to the TAB network anyway, the additional cost of building in wireless routers would be minimal compared to potential benefits. The other benefit would be advertising, most wireless signals send out the name of the network 'connect to x' which can pop up automatically on your phone or device, when you pull out your phone in a pub or walking down the street you could see that and at the very least it would raise awareness of the ability to get onto the TAB site/application.Free Wi-Fi access could also be locked to only the TAB website or application to avoid additional costs.
Small Step 2: Mobile Application
Small Step 3: Free on course Wi-Fi
Small Step 4: Free Wi-Fi in TAB outlets and Bars with TAB facilities.
The next small step is to increase interaction. Yes, the TAB has Facebook and Twitter pages, as do other prominent people and organisations in the racing industry, such as Pencarrow Stud and New Zealand Thoroughbred racing, but those sites are generally good for information and suitable for people with interest in the activities of those organisations. Where interaction could be better is with the stars of the industry, the jockeys, trainers, and television personalities. It is great that Hayden Tinsley is on twitter he also has a cool modern website, and Jason Tan is using this technology more frequently, but it needs to go beyond this. Some jockeys have web sites, Sam Spratt has a pretty good one which is kept up to date, but few others do, a quick Google search of the top 15 Jockey's on the current premiership yields very few websites, Google shows that several have Facebook pages, but I assume those are personal pages rather than 'fan' pages (I don't know, I am not going to risk invading their privacy to find out for sure), which makes sense because they are people in addition to athletes. It is can understandable that jockey's are effectively self employed, so luxuries like websites would probably come at a personal cost, and take up their own time to maintain etc.but, why doesn't NZ Racing set up Fan sites to promote some of the sports bigger stars, again there is a potential cost, but when people Google James McDonald, they would find specific information about a real success story rather than a scattering of references in articles and other sources.
Obviously jockeys and trainers are their own people, they have a job to focus on like anyone else, and may not want to invest time in this type of activity, clearly NZ Racing cant force them (nor would I suggest they try) to have Twitter accounts etc. to communicate with the public, also been in the public eye will not just bring out fans but potentially open them up to negative comments. However it would be cool to see more of them on Twitter, writing blogs occasionally, more interviews or online chats with the public. A great thing about been a sports fan in this era is the ability to communicate directly with your favourite stars, whether they be sports stars or movie stars, it is a chance to hear their voice unfiltered and a way for them to promote themselves.
Small Step 5: Offer to set up personal websites and fan pages for jockeys (most often trainers have websites because it is in their interest to be accessible to potential owners, although Googling trainers still leads to mixed results, it is surprising more stables don't have twitter accounts to promote successes to potential owners, much like Pencarrow Stud does), encourage people in the industry to get involved with Twitter.
The TAB currently has a good website, it is functional, easy to use and fits the purpose well. It probably doesn't make sense to make wholesale changes other than the occasional face lift to stay fresh, which they already do well. Many of the proposed changes need to be linked to be effective, ie. if you are going to have blogs, links to Jockey websites and twitter feeds, links to Youtube for interviews and race coverage, other ideas which are to come, and a smart phone/tablet application, obviously this would take up significant space on the existing website. One option is to add a tab with all of this stuff neatly organised, or secondly to create a separate website which either opens in a separate window when the tab is clicked, or is its own entity, for example there is currently not a Trackside website, it would be the perfect way to link the TV channels to the TAB website, and the new interactive fan experience which could be offered. There are other ways interacting can be included, such as holding frequent online chats with people in racing or analysts, and bio's of jockeys and trainers, of which there are some on the NZ Racing website, but it could be increased.
Small Step 6: TAB Website improvement to link interactivity with racing on TV and any improved fan experience.
Forums are a great way for fans to interact with other fans. There are two prominent forums in New Zealand Race Cafe and Race Chat. These both offer interesting insight and discussions, particularly in relation to insider-y aspects of Racing. There are a couple of problems, they are in general poorly moderated, which makes sense because they are privately run and moderation takes time, threads get derailed by personal attacks, off topic comments, and multiple threads about the same topic, lack of contributors. The insider environment also makes it difficult for a fan to contribute, a common rebuttal is simply stating your resume and claiming the other person doesn't know what they are talking about, which creates a hostile and intimidating environment. Yes, some topics around training, ownership, or NZTR's leadership and policies probably should be left to people in the know, however they do make interesting reading for people out of the know. The ideal forum, would have specific areas to discuss previews for up coming races or race meetings (one thread per race meeting and each larger race), a race day forum for people to discuss what they are watching, their impressions of up coming races and thoughts on results, Q&A forums for people who have knowledge to share with interested fans, Competitions (which admittedly Race Cafe does really well), as well as other general forums to discuss other things happening in racing, much like they currently have. By pulling this under the TAB (or alternate 'Fan' interaction website), a moderator could be employed (or better yet volunteers can be appointed to enforce forum rules, which would be reviewed to make sure Mod's are on the same page and not abusing power), it would also attract more people to contribute because it would be easier to find, sanctioned by NZ Racing, well moderated, and open for fans to make a contribution which would lead to more people contributing and discussing racing.
Small Step 7: Forums, an inviting environment for fans to hold discussions about the happenings in racing, in a well moderated environment.
Fantasy sports are huge business, estimates have placed the value at $3-4 Billion in the US (the real home of this type of thing). In this part of the worlds they exist in the form of tipping competitions, and pick a team style competitions. Even horse racing fantasy sports are not new. There are definite improvements which could be made, if these are brought under the TAB banner it would be inviting, can easily link to the forum, and other interaction and increase fan involvement. I have ideas of how this could work well, but this is already long winded enough, so I will save those for another post.
Small Step 8: Fantasy Sports
Can any of this make a difference? Is there a flow on from increasing the fan experience, to increasing the number of fans, to increasing turnover, to increasing stakes, to increasing ownership, to increasing product quality, to increasing fans?
Who knows, would it benefit current customers and fans? yes, some of these suggestions would benefit more fans than others would.
Is there a cost involved? yes, but many of these ideas are relatively simple and cheap (YouTube usage), some directly impact turnover (like Wi-Fi in pubs for example), some are more costly but have longer term benefits, many involve a start up cost and smaller maintenance expenditure (building websites, and applications). Some may only serve to raise the profile of people in the industry like trainers and jockeys which may directly benefit them, but may take time to flow through to increased turnover (although you can argue that there is a flow on effect).
The overall theme of this includes three aspects, firstly the use of technology which exists and is on offer to use, secondly the promotion of personalities, and thirdly the integration between technology, information channels, personalities and the fan experience.
None of this is intended to be a criticism of the way the TAB or New Zealand Racing operates. I am not privy to the politics or management of New Zealand Racing, so I don't know what it takes to get things done. Nor do I feel like I currently have a bad fan experience, but good is a relative term and things can always be improved. What I do know is what it is like to be a fan, I enjoy all sports and am passionate about Racing in New Zealand, I can see that the fan experience of racing relative to other sports can be improved, particularly relative to sports leagues in other parts of the world, and it would be great to follow racing at home as well as I can sports leagues which exist overseas.
How popular is Horse Racing in New Zealand? it is certainly reasonably large business, according to the New Zealand Racing Board racing contributes around 1.3% of New Zealand's GDP (based on a study in 2003), Waikato Stud sites a similar number which may be based on the same study. Turnover from racing on and off course was roughly $1.4 billion in 2010, of which only about 5.5% of that total was on course, through the first half of 2011 turnover is looking slightly increased with roughly 6% of that on course.
Without more in-depth knowledge of the make up of those numbers it is hard to determine the contribution of the three codes incorporated in that number, it is also hard to determine the contribution from big bettors verses smaller punters, however as that number is purely turnover one could assume larger players make a significant contribution to that $1.4 billion. So it is not really possible to tell the number of people frequently contributing to this total, and the overall popularity of racing (of course it is possible to enjoy and follow racing without making any contribution to turnover).
The one telling piece of information is that the majority of revenue is derived through off course channels which must include the local TAB, TAB machines in bars, and placing bets from home or anywhere over the phone or Internet. Two years ago popularity was sufficient to warrant another dedicated racing TV channel, of course this was also a way to offer more racing, but there must have been a demand for this.
Possibly the best way to ask a question of popularity is not to ask how popular is racing? but to ask, why is horse racing not more popular? Even if you remove the gambling aspect from the racing there is still a lot to offer, you get to watch two highly skilled athletes, man (or Woman as the case may be) trying to tame a sometimes uncooperative beast and get the best performance from it; there is fast pace, tight finishes, frequent underdog stories; it is highly accessible and a traditional Kiwi pass time; there are compelling characters from the broadcast booth through the trainers, owners, jockeys and you can even include the horses themselves; there is also a danger aspect which tends to draw some people to certain sports. Without the wagering side racing still offers a chance to prove your skill and pick winners, with the gambling comes a way to potentially increase the excitement by adding a risk and reward factor. It is not necessarily more expensive than following the All Blacks if you enjoy the competition for what it is.
When you watch racing on TV you typically see a scattering of people in attendance at the course. The only times you see more is the major race days. What is the difference between these days and a regular Saturday? generally the quality of racing is higher, the racing feels special and a day at the races feels like an event, the other difference revolves around promotion and the amount which goes into the bigger days. Ellerslie racecourse is great at hosting events and parties they have the advantage of a large population to draw from, a thriving social scene which likes that type of event, and leading racing to back it up. I am sure Ellerslie has a promotional budget for advertising things like Auckland Cup Week and Whips and Spurs, but they also have an excellent Twitter and Facebook presence, and the advantage of putting on great events which lead to spreading word of mouth. Is there a hook? how many people who attend these events and even have a bet at these events will go on to follow racing more closely? many wont even think of it until the next party.
Should the racing industry even be worried about attracting crowds and increasing on-course turnover? clearly the clubs have something at stake with on-course turnover, however as a whole other than the big race days is it better to attend a meeting than watch it at home? Flick on a Super 15 game some time, you will almost certainly notice a difference in the sizes of the crowds in New Zealand, Australia and South Africa, they have bigger populations to draw from, but they also have larger stadiums to fill, this is New Zealand's national game, a New Zealand team has won the competition eleven out of sixteen years, and it doesn't cost much to get a ticket to most of these games. Maybe it is just more fun to watch a game at home or in a pub (an argument which can now be seen frequently), large screen TV's, high definition, replays, pause, rewind, change channels, surround sound, the ability to walk away if the game is not up to standard.
The TV is not the only place you can get up close to Rugby, online you can connect and communicate with your favourite player through Facebook or Twitter, there is an overload of information and analysis, rumour and banter can be exchanged on message boards. The fan experience beyond the stadium is excellent, you can be the biggest fan and not have to attend a single game, in fact with a laptop on your knee you can watch the game and communicate with other big fans on-line. If you want to go to a game you can pick and choose the bigger games with the better atmosphere and more at stake.
Racing has a great TV experience, two channels dedicated to racing from around the world. But whether you are going to the track or watching on TV it is still a full days commitment. The advent of MySky and other DVR helps this problem, the New Zealand Racing website has video of most races available, however the website seems to work infrequently, NZRacing has a decent YouTube channel, but it only features main races. Why not put all of the races on YouTube? which makes the maintenance of it their problem and then simply have links on the NZ Racing page next to the results, or put them in a way you can watch the race and then reveal the result.
The good thing about watching racing on TV is that there is constant racing, you can watch five or more race meetings at once if you choose, but it does leave you feeling a bit cold. It is constant racing with a couple of short interviews, most of the days previews are on the First Call which is before racing gets started for the day. It is always good to hear from trainers, jockeys, and owners after races, to see presentations, but also to hear more in-depth analysis of races after the event, it is understandable that money is generated through having more races to bet on, but it would be interesting to know how much more the personalities could resonate if they had a voice, it is clear people in New Zealand frequently bet with their hears rather than their heads, and patriotism takes over, why not give more access to the 'stars' of the racing industry and see if a sense of loyalty is generated. This doesn't need to interfere with the economics of broadcasting racing on a daily basis, but why not utilise YouTube for this purpose to showcase the personalities.
Small Step 1: Better utilisation of YouTube in conjunction with the television channels is a simple change which is reasonably inexpensive and would enhance the fan experience.
The TAB released a mobile friendly website earlier this year (m.tab.co.nz), it is a simple way to wager or look at odds on the go. Why do they not have an application for use on iPad/iPhone and Android devices? this seems like a simple next step (I say this as someone who works in the IT industry), it is a good way to integrate the web page with racing information and even include video or links to the YouTube channel to further integrate technology. Tablet PC's are ideal for scanning form (which can be done at present by downloading a .pdf file), and an app can offer links for more information or directly to place a bet. New Zealand Bloodstock has taken up the challenge and is using an iPad application for their latest catalogue it is a perfect example of the power of this type of technology, a buyer can have this in their hand for easy access to information or take it anywhere for an easy ability to look up information. A tablet would be an ideal tool to have either at home or at the track for placing bets and looking up information. The problem is of course if you are at the track placing bets using technology then the course may get cut out of the equation, it is hard to believe that courses don't offer free Wi-Fi, but understandable they have the concern that they will lose money from someone who has already taken the time to be on course but is then betting remotely. This is a deeper problem, the simple solution is to provide Wi-Fi and treat all bets coming through that IP address as 'on-course', the clubs can still get their share, and the fan gets an improved experience.
Why not offer free Wi-Fi in TAB outlets and more importantly pubs? not only would access to an application give more knowledge to people in these outlets, but it would allow for an ease of betting, and more trackable information for the TAB, particularly in a pub environment where they have automatic machines which must be connected to the TAB network anyway, the additional cost of building in wireless routers would be minimal compared to potential benefits. The other benefit would be advertising, most wireless signals send out the name of the network 'connect to x' which can pop up automatically on your phone or device, when you pull out your phone in a pub or walking down the street you could see that and at the very least it would raise awareness of the ability to get onto the TAB site/application.Free Wi-Fi access could also be locked to only the TAB website or application to avoid additional costs.
Small Step 2: Mobile Application
Small Step 3: Free on course Wi-Fi
Small Step 4: Free Wi-Fi in TAB outlets and Bars with TAB facilities.
The next small step is to increase interaction. Yes, the TAB has Facebook and Twitter pages, as do other prominent people and organisations in the racing industry, such as Pencarrow Stud and New Zealand Thoroughbred racing, but those sites are generally good for information and suitable for people with interest in the activities of those organisations. Where interaction could be better is with the stars of the industry, the jockeys, trainers, and television personalities. It is great that Hayden Tinsley is on twitter he also has a cool modern website, and Jason Tan is using this technology more frequently, but it needs to go beyond this. Some jockeys have web sites, Sam Spratt has a pretty good one which is kept up to date, but few others do, a quick Google search of the top 15 Jockey's on the current premiership yields very few websites, Google shows that several have Facebook pages, but I assume those are personal pages rather than 'fan' pages (I don't know, I am not going to risk invading their privacy to find out for sure), which makes sense because they are people in addition to athletes. It is can understandable that jockey's are effectively self employed, so luxuries like websites would probably come at a personal cost, and take up their own time to maintain etc.but, why doesn't NZ Racing set up Fan sites to promote some of the sports bigger stars, again there is a potential cost, but when people Google James McDonald, they would find specific information about a real success story rather than a scattering of references in articles and other sources.
Obviously jockeys and trainers are their own people, they have a job to focus on like anyone else, and may not want to invest time in this type of activity, clearly NZ Racing cant force them (nor would I suggest they try) to have Twitter accounts etc. to communicate with the public, also been in the public eye will not just bring out fans but potentially open them up to negative comments. However it would be cool to see more of them on Twitter, writing blogs occasionally, more interviews or online chats with the public. A great thing about been a sports fan in this era is the ability to communicate directly with your favourite stars, whether they be sports stars or movie stars, it is a chance to hear their voice unfiltered and a way for them to promote themselves.
Small Step 5: Offer to set up personal websites and fan pages for jockeys (most often trainers have websites because it is in their interest to be accessible to potential owners, although Googling trainers still leads to mixed results, it is surprising more stables don't have twitter accounts to promote successes to potential owners, much like Pencarrow Stud does), encourage people in the industry to get involved with Twitter.
The TAB currently has a good website, it is functional, easy to use and fits the purpose well. It probably doesn't make sense to make wholesale changes other than the occasional face lift to stay fresh, which they already do well. Many of the proposed changes need to be linked to be effective, ie. if you are going to have blogs, links to Jockey websites and twitter feeds, links to Youtube for interviews and race coverage, other ideas which are to come, and a smart phone/tablet application, obviously this would take up significant space on the existing website. One option is to add a tab with all of this stuff neatly organised, or secondly to create a separate website which either opens in a separate window when the tab is clicked, or is its own entity, for example there is currently not a Trackside website, it would be the perfect way to link the TV channels to the TAB website, and the new interactive fan experience which could be offered. There are other ways interacting can be included, such as holding frequent online chats with people in racing or analysts, and bio's of jockeys and trainers, of which there are some on the NZ Racing website, but it could be increased.
Small Step 6: TAB Website improvement to link interactivity with racing on TV and any improved fan experience.
Forums are a great way for fans to interact with other fans. There are two prominent forums in New Zealand Race Cafe and Race Chat. These both offer interesting insight and discussions, particularly in relation to insider-y aspects of Racing. There are a couple of problems, they are in general poorly moderated, which makes sense because they are privately run and moderation takes time, threads get derailed by personal attacks, off topic comments, and multiple threads about the same topic, lack of contributors. The insider environment also makes it difficult for a fan to contribute, a common rebuttal is simply stating your resume and claiming the other person doesn't know what they are talking about, which creates a hostile and intimidating environment. Yes, some topics around training, ownership, or NZTR's leadership and policies probably should be left to people in the know, however they do make interesting reading for people out of the know. The ideal forum, would have specific areas to discuss previews for up coming races or race meetings (one thread per race meeting and each larger race), a race day forum for people to discuss what they are watching, their impressions of up coming races and thoughts on results, Q&A forums for people who have knowledge to share with interested fans, Competitions (which admittedly Race Cafe does really well), as well as other general forums to discuss other things happening in racing, much like they currently have. By pulling this under the TAB (or alternate 'Fan' interaction website), a moderator could be employed (or better yet volunteers can be appointed to enforce forum rules, which would be reviewed to make sure Mod's are on the same page and not abusing power), it would also attract more people to contribute because it would be easier to find, sanctioned by NZ Racing, well moderated, and open for fans to make a contribution which would lead to more people contributing and discussing racing.
Small Step 7: Forums, an inviting environment for fans to hold discussions about the happenings in racing, in a well moderated environment.
Fantasy sports are huge business, estimates have placed the value at $3-4 Billion in the US (the real home of this type of thing). In this part of the worlds they exist in the form of tipping competitions, and pick a team style competitions. Even horse racing fantasy sports are not new. There are definite improvements which could be made, if these are brought under the TAB banner it would be inviting, can easily link to the forum, and other interaction and increase fan involvement. I have ideas of how this could work well, but this is already long winded enough, so I will save those for another post.
Small Step 8: Fantasy Sports
Can any of this make a difference? Is there a flow on from increasing the fan experience, to increasing the number of fans, to increasing turnover, to increasing stakes, to increasing ownership, to increasing product quality, to increasing fans?
Who knows, would it benefit current customers and fans? yes, some of these suggestions would benefit more fans than others would.
Is there a cost involved? yes, but many of these ideas are relatively simple and cheap (YouTube usage), some directly impact turnover (like Wi-Fi in pubs for example), some are more costly but have longer term benefits, many involve a start up cost and smaller maintenance expenditure (building websites, and applications). Some may only serve to raise the profile of people in the industry like trainers and jockeys which may directly benefit them, but may take time to flow through to increased turnover (although you can argue that there is a flow on effect).
The overall theme of this includes three aspects, firstly the use of technology which exists and is on offer to use, secondly the promotion of personalities, and thirdly the integration between technology, information channels, personalities and the fan experience.
None of this is intended to be a criticism of the way the TAB or New Zealand Racing operates. I am not privy to the politics or management of New Zealand Racing, so I don't know what it takes to get things done. Nor do I feel like I currently have a bad fan experience, but good is a relative term and things can always be improved. What I do know is what it is like to be a fan, I enjoy all sports and am passionate about Racing in New Zealand, I can see that the fan experience of racing relative to other sports can be improved, particularly relative to sports leagues in other parts of the world, and it would be great to follow racing at home as well as I can sports leagues which exist overseas.
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