It is about halfway through February, the New Zealand Derby takes place on the third of March at Ellerslie. Two years ago Katie Lee was a class three year old, but this race was a bit too long and it would come down to a battle between Zarzuela and Monaco Consul (as far as the book makers were concerned, although Katie Lee was kept safe), as it turned out Military Move was too strong. Last year everyone knew Jimmy Choux was the top three year old, some suspected the distance would test, but his class prevailed. The point is those races were reasonably clear heading into them, they may not have played out the way that people expected them to, but people were generally talking about a couple of options as potential winners.
This year is far different, the odds are frequently shifting, contenders are battling other contenders on a weekly basis, favourites are going down and at this stage there is probably about seven horses who could win and you would not be shocked. There are still 22 horses in the nomination list, and that list does not include Sangster or Dowager Queen who you might have expected to be contenders in November last year. Lets have a look at some of the nominations and why you can make a case for them as a potential derby winner.
Silent Achiever
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (in the Waikato Guineas over 2000m) Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes over 2100m at Ellerslie), Jerobarm (over 1600m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Planet Rock (Eight Carat Classic over 1600m at Ellerslie)
The win over Ocean Park (then derby favourite) was the one that really cemented Silent Achiever as a horse capable of racing at this level. She has really hit the line strongly each time she steps in the distance which makes the 2400m tempting.
Ocean Park
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Shuka (in the Great Northern Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m), Joys Choice (over 1500m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Knights Tour (Great Northern Guineas)
Thus far the couple of Victories over Shuka are the most impressive on his resume, however his win in the Wellington Stakes was arguably one of the most impressive victories by a three year old this season, he did beat a strong field that day (just no other nominees). The run for second behind Knight's Tour included a finish which would have seen him leading if the race was 50m longer. The second behind Silent Achiever at Te Rapa was good, he didn't really look that comfortable throughout the trip and finished off strongly, but Silent Achiever was simply outstanding, she did a fantastic job to find the hole and catch Ocean Park.
Rock'n'Pop
Current Odds - $6.00
Other noms beaten: Shuka (2000 Guineas over 1600m)
Beaten by: Shuka (Over 1400m at Ashburton)
Is a Group 1 winner who has also placed at Group 1 level at Open level. He came back with a 5th at Tauranga, he then followed up with a strong performances and finish in the Karaka 3YO mile and that 3rd in the Group 1 Darci Brahma International over 2000m. The third last Saturday was a great indication of talent, he didn't get a lot of favours and really hard to work hard, he showed a lot of speed and made up a lot of distance over the final couple of hundred meters.
Knight's Tour
Current Odds -Now out of derby nominations.
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka (Great Northen Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m)
Beaten by: None
Knight's Tour shot into contention with a surprise victory in the Great Northern Guineas on Boxing Day, he followed this up with a hard fought victory on Karaka Millions night over 1600m. He has looked good to date, the win over Ocean Park is probably his best to date when both finished strongly beating a decent guineas field.
Zurella
Current odds - $6
Other noms beaten: Planet Rock (Sir Tristram Fillies Classic at Te Rapa over 2000m) Joy's Choice (Eulogy Stakes over 1600m at Ellerslie), Joy's Choice, Roamin, (at Te Rapa over 1400m)
Beaten by:
The victory in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic was huge. She was unable to finish off the 2000m strongly in the Royal stakes, that may have been because of the conditions, or because it was her first attempt, however none of that matters now, she beat a class field on the weekend and won in style over 2000m.
Shuka
Current odds - $10
Other noms beaten: Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas), Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes), Rock'n'Pop (over 1400m at Ashburton)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever (Championship Stakes), Knight's Tour, Ocean Park (Great Northern Guineas) Rock'n'Pop (2000 Guineas)
Faced a lot of the contenders and has typically been middle of the pack (relative to the others). He has a good record overall and in bigger races but has not really been able to overcome the elite (who are more favoured than him for the race). Looking at his recent performances over 2000m and 2100m I am not concerned about his ability to get 2400m, but he hasn't really showed that the added 400m/300m would have put him in a position where he would have beaten those horses.
Carrick
Current odds - $14
Other noms beaten: None
Beaten by: None
Will be looking to see how he goes against some of the other noms prior to the derby. He has looked solid to date, but maybe has not faced some of the competition of the other noms.
Planet Rock - is now out of the Derby.
Barney
Current odds - $18
Other noms beaten: Nine Pin (over 2100m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park, Shuka (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever, Shuka, Viking Ace (Championship Stakes)
$18 odds seem a bit low, but it is hard to argue he is not the next best, or at least in the next best group.
It certainly appears overall that this race will come down to a lot of those top nominees, there is certainly a number of cases you can build for each of them, obviously the removal of Planet Rock and Knight's Tour since I began writing this opens things up slightly for others who would have been considered longer shots, but the top four are very close. By looking at some of the past few derby's it is clear longer shots are never out of this race, it would be wise to look closely at some of the performances in lower grade races of some of the runners to see if you can find your outsider. The Avondale Guineas this weekend is always a great indicator as to how horses may go in the Derby, it is definitely one to tune in for.
Tuesday, 14 February 2012
Friday, 10 February 2012
Seven highlights of the racing weekend
Big weekend coming up in racing on both sides of the Tasman. There is a lot to look forward to, here is a list of my top seven things to look forward to on the track this weekend, in no particular order (other than the fact it will be chronological).
Reason One
Location: Hamilton
Time: 2.43pm
Huge race day in Hamilton this weekend, it is always a good day out, I would love to be down their again this weekend but unfortunately I will have to write about it instead. There are two Group 1's and a Group 2. The Sir Tristram Fillies Classic is one of those races which falls into the Group 2 category but year after year produces a stunning field which could be seen at Group 1 level. Last year Kings Rose followed up her victory in the 2010 Thousand Guineas with a victory in the Cambridge Stud Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. Planet Rock is looking to accomplish the same feat this year, and will be hoping to reproduce the same success that Kings Rose went on to have over the course of the rest of 2011.
The field she will face at Te Rapa this weekend contains a number of runners who hold nominations to the New Zealand Oaks and this is definitely one of those events which will indicate how likely these fillies are to be able to compete in that race.
The highlights include the aforementioned Planet Rock who won the Guineas and the Eight Carat Classic before going down to Chicharita in the Royal Stakes on New Years day. She looked better than 4th in that race and will likely run better in this event after a month off and having her second look at 2000m.
Chicharita the Royal Stakes winner who has had her two worst performances at Te Rapa, that Royal Stakes finish was impressive and a good draw should keep her handy but this does feel like a tougher race.
Up and coming Quintessential who has been notable with solid performances since her second start. She stepped up and won at Group 3 level in Wellington recently, based on that race I would put her in a similar boat to Artistic in relation to this race, both runs were similar and Quintessential won that time, but both ran similar races that day.
Zurella was highly rated heading into the Royal Stakes but she finished a pretty distant fifth, it may have been the distance or the conditions which effected her, but she has talent and deserves to be considered. Abeautifulred is putting together a decent run of races, however she does seem to encounter better horses having better days, this looks tough but she should be around the first few home.
Artistic, is having a similar season to Abeautifulred, since beating the colts in the Bonecrusher stakes she has had a string of fourth's before her striking third to Quintessential recently, it feels like she has the firepower to win this, she just needs things to go her way to be in a handy position for the finish.
Capital Diamond is never far away and showed great fight to not only chase down Abeautifulred, but to hold off the flying Artistic in the Desert Gold Stakes, the step up to 2000m shouldn't concern, she has the ability to remain consistent.
Our Famous Eve nominated here and in the Darci Brahma International she is probably better suited here, but despite the impressive Royal Stakes second I cannot help but think some of the other talent here will catch up with her.
Of the rest Leica Duell seems to have the form over a bit more ground, but it is hard to see the winner not coming from the top half of the field on Saturday.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - Should be better this time at 2000m, the draw is a concern, this is a pick on talent
Second - Artistic - We will see another one of those flying finishes she produces, if she starts her run with room she can win.
Third - Quintessential - Should be better positioned from barrier three to unleash another strong finish
Forth - Zurella - With a good track she deserves another shot at 2000m
Value - Hard to see a candidate who is far over the odds here, maybe some value around Quintessential and Capital Diamond
Reason Two
Location: Hamilton
Time: 3.53pm
Group 1 racing is always a reason to get excited and this race includes a number of factors which deserve attention, there are contenders in this race who I would not have thought would be contenders a month ago. Based on the Boxing Day performance it is hard to go past Shez Sensational, forget the 1600m Group 1 it was too short 2000m is far more suitable.
At weight for age level quality three year old's are hard to go past when making selections and Rock'n'Pop looks like a genuine contender. I remember last year on this day We Can Say It Now looked like a strong contender at Group 1 Level in the Waikato Draft Sprint but came up against a resurgent Mufhasa as well as Wall Street and Keep the Peace who had impressive seasons. Rock'n'Pop may be better suited this year in this event.
How about some of the unlikely contenders here:
Six O'Clock News - Speaking of resurgent, the Wellington Cup was great, this is tougher but he is back in form.
Booming - WFA conditions are the most suitable for Booming, 2000m is the most suitable distance too.
Doctor Fremantle - After Boxing Day you have to consider him, was that a fluke or is there better to come?
Postman's Daughter - After the counties win in November she looked to go off, but she is back racing well, WFA does concern, but she still carried 56kg for second in the Thorndon Mile.
Our Famous Eve - If she runs, at 52kgs she could be dangerous.
The Picks
First: Shez Sensational - Too good boxing day in a very similar and possibly tougher race.
Second: Rock'n'Pop - Strong, lightweight, genuine contender.
Third: Hold it Harvey - 2kg relative difference in weight to Six O'Clock News from their last meeting.
Forth: Six O'Clock News - Will give the recent form respect for now.
Value: If Our Famous Eve runs their could be value, however I would suggest that if Six O'Clock News can put on another show the $12 going at the moment is great value.
Reason Three
Location: Hamilton
Time: 5.03pm
The second Group 1 of the day might be even better in the fact that it contains the defending champion Mufhasa and recent 1200m Group 1 winner Guiseppina stepping up to weight for age conditions. Then there is Veyron, a Group 1 winner undefeated over 1400m stepping back from a second over 2000m at WFA conditions. Then there is Sangster a talented 3YO who won his last start in a small race called the Victorian Derby. This may be a three horse race for first, but it should be an interesting three horse race.
The Picks
First: Mufhasa - Simply too good
Second: Guiseppina - Came home so well 1400m really appeals, capable of carrying the weight and winning
Third: Veyron - First time not winning over 1400m.
Forth: Run Like Al - Formidable record on the course and has won three over 1400m
Value - Run Like Al - Although he will have to put on a show to finish better than forth.
Reason Four
Location: Caulfield
Who doesn't love an underdog story? A battler fighting for respect, doing their best and trying to beat the odds. Well this Saturday at Caulfield you will get to witness a horse having her 18th start, having only won a measly $4.5million, her connections hoping that stepping up to 1400m will be what it takes to finally break through for that treasured victory (the 18th one they treasure). The stands will be dripping with Salmon and Black as the crowds come in force to farewell Black Caviar as she heads off in search of stronger competition. It will be a special occasion, it is rare to see an athlete connecting with the general population and transcending their sport to gain the attention of people who would not normally be interested, Black Caviar as accomplished this with her domination through 17 starts, and it looks to continue this weekend, it is definitely something to look forward to this weekend.
Reason Five
Location: Caulfield
Time: 5.50pm
Looking past the fact that simply having Black Caviar run makes this a special occasion, the race she is running in itself is something to look forward to. This race features a number of Group 1 winners, a Caulfield Cup Winner, a Melbourne Cup Winner, multiple horses with over or close to a million in earnings. This race will ask a question of Black Caviar, which doesn't happen too often and probably has not happened since Hay List asked some questions briefly last year, this question is the 1400m which is the first time she will attempt this distance.
Well here is the answer, of course she will handle the 1400m, she runs 1200m with out even getting out of second gear, if she needs to she can at least kick it into third. She finishes races with so much left in the tank that an extra 200m cannot possibly be a concern.
In regard to the quality competition, unfortunately only two of the horses in this race will likely have their next start at this distance, and they are unlikely to be a threat. The remaining horses Efficient, Playing God, Midas Touch, Precedence, Illo and Southern Speed are starting (or early in) their Autumn campaign, this is not a race they would have necessarily been targeting but it is a step as they begin to look at longer races.
Yes, Black Caviar will win, this is not a bold prediction, the interesting part of the race will be to see who else is winding up behind her. A lot of these horses met in other races in the spring, this will be a barometer as to how they are looking now and who is likely to finish on top of the longer races later in the Autumn.
Reason Six
Location: Sydney, Rosehill
Time: 6.50pm
There is also a big race on in Sydney this weekend worth watching. It is a 1200m race which features a few notable horses, three who have won over $2 million (Danleigh, Snipers Bullet, and Sacred Choice) and another two who will likely go over that mark should they win here (Rangirangdo and Shoot Out) and . Three of the runners have imposable records on the track (Rangirangdoo, Centennial Park and Winter King). There are a couple of up and comers with strong records to date, Rain Affair has such a impressive record. A couple are likely looking for a bit more ground. All with have ambitions of going on to bigger events later in the Autumn. Definitely something to look forward to.
Reason Seven
Location: Caulfield
Time: 7:10pm
Anabandana's first start in Australia. The quality kiwi filly is having a start over a distance she owned in New Zealand (1200m). This is probably one of the tougher fields she has faced overall, but she has the benefit of having Craig Williams who will make sure she is in the best place to show that turn of foot we all know she has. It will be great to see her over in Australia preparing to take on some of the top horses in the region, this will be a really good indication of just how good she can be.
Those are my highlights for this weekend, it really will be an excellent show at Te Rapa and everyone will have an eye across the Tasman as the Autumn begins to wind up.
Reason One
Location: Hamilton
Time: 2.43pm
Huge race day in Hamilton this weekend, it is always a good day out, I would love to be down their again this weekend but unfortunately I will have to write about it instead. There are two Group 1's and a Group 2. The Sir Tristram Fillies Classic is one of those races which falls into the Group 2 category but year after year produces a stunning field which could be seen at Group 1 level. Last year Kings Rose followed up her victory in the 2010 Thousand Guineas with a victory in the Cambridge Stud Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. Planet Rock is looking to accomplish the same feat this year, and will be hoping to reproduce the same success that Kings Rose went on to have over the course of the rest of 2011.
The field she will face at Te Rapa this weekend contains a number of runners who hold nominations to the New Zealand Oaks and this is definitely one of those events which will indicate how likely these fillies are to be able to compete in that race.
The highlights include the aforementioned Planet Rock who won the Guineas and the Eight Carat Classic before going down to Chicharita in the Royal Stakes on New Years day. She looked better than 4th in that race and will likely run better in this event after a month off and having her second look at 2000m.
Chicharita the Royal Stakes winner who has had her two worst performances at Te Rapa, that Royal Stakes finish was impressive and a good draw should keep her handy but this does feel like a tougher race.
Up and coming Quintessential who has been notable with solid performances since her second start. She stepped up and won at Group 3 level in Wellington recently, based on that race I would put her in a similar boat to Artistic in relation to this race, both runs were similar and Quintessential won that time, but both ran similar races that day.
Zurella was highly rated heading into the Royal Stakes but she finished a pretty distant fifth, it may have been the distance or the conditions which effected her, but she has talent and deserves to be considered. Abeautifulred is putting together a decent run of races, however she does seem to encounter better horses having better days, this looks tough but she should be around the first few home.
Artistic, is having a similar season to Abeautifulred, since beating the colts in the Bonecrusher stakes she has had a string of fourth's before her striking third to Quintessential recently, it feels like she has the firepower to win this, she just needs things to go her way to be in a handy position for the finish.
Capital Diamond is never far away and showed great fight to not only chase down Abeautifulred, but to hold off the flying Artistic in the Desert Gold Stakes, the step up to 2000m shouldn't concern, she has the ability to remain consistent.
Our Famous Eve nominated here and in the Darci Brahma International she is probably better suited here, but despite the impressive Royal Stakes second I cannot help but think some of the other talent here will catch up with her.
Of the rest Leica Duell seems to have the form over a bit more ground, but it is hard to see the winner not coming from the top half of the field on Saturday.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - Should be better this time at 2000m, the draw is a concern, this is a pick on talent
Second - Artistic - We will see another one of those flying finishes she produces, if she starts her run with room she can win.
Third - Quintessential - Should be better positioned from barrier three to unleash another strong finish
Forth - Zurella - With a good track she deserves another shot at 2000m
Value - Hard to see a candidate who is far over the odds here, maybe some value around Quintessential and Capital Diamond
Reason Two
Location: Hamilton
Time: 3.53pm
Group 1 racing is always a reason to get excited and this race includes a number of factors which deserve attention, there are contenders in this race who I would not have thought would be contenders a month ago. Based on the Boxing Day performance it is hard to go past Shez Sensational, forget the 1600m Group 1 it was too short 2000m is far more suitable.
At weight for age level quality three year old's are hard to go past when making selections and Rock'n'Pop looks like a genuine contender. I remember last year on this day We Can Say It Now looked like a strong contender at Group 1 Level in the Waikato Draft Sprint but came up against a resurgent Mufhasa as well as Wall Street and Keep the Peace who had impressive seasons. Rock'n'Pop may be better suited this year in this event.
How about some of the unlikely contenders here:
Six O'Clock News - Speaking of resurgent, the Wellington Cup was great, this is tougher but he is back in form.
Booming - WFA conditions are the most suitable for Booming, 2000m is the most suitable distance too.
Doctor Fremantle - After Boxing Day you have to consider him, was that a fluke or is there better to come?
Postman's Daughter - After the counties win in November she looked to go off, but she is back racing well, WFA does concern, but she still carried 56kg for second in the Thorndon Mile.
Our Famous Eve - If she runs, at 52kgs she could be dangerous.
The Picks
First: Shez Sensational - Too good boxing day in a very similar and possibly tougher race.
Second: Rock'n'Pop - Strong, lightweight, genuine contender.
Third: Hold it Harvey - 2kg relative difference in weight to Six O'Clock News from their last meeting.
Forth: Six O'Clock News - Will give the recent form respect for now.
Value: If Our Famous Eve runs their could be value, however I would suggest that if Six O'Clock News can put on another show the $12 going at the moment is great value.
Reason Three
Location: Hamilton
Time: 5.03pm
The second Group 1 of the day might be even better in the fact that it contains the defending champion Mufhasa and recent 1200m Group 1 winner Guiseppina stepping up to weight for age conditions. Then there is Veyron, a Group 1 winner undefeated over 1400m stepping back from a second over 2000m at WFA conditions. Then there is Sangster a talented 3YO who won his last start in a small race called the Victorian Derby. This may be a three horse race for first, but it should be an interesting three horse race.
The Picks
First: Mufhasa - Simply too good
Second: Guiseppina - Came home so well 1400m really appeals, capable of carrying the weight and winning
Third: Veyron - First time not winning over 1400m.
Forth: Run Like Al - Formidable record on the course and has won three over 1400m
Value - Run Like Al - Although he will have to put on a show to finish better than forth.
Reason Four
Location: Caulfield
Who doesn't love an underdog story? A battler fighting for respect, doing their best and trying to beat the odds. Well this Saturday at Caulfield you will get to witness a horse having her 18th start, having only won a measly $4.5million, her connections hoping that stepping up to 1400m will be what it takes to finally break through for that treasured victory (the 18th one they treasure). The stands will be dripping with Salmon and Black as the crowds come in force to farewell Black Caviar as she heads off in search of stronger competition. It will be a special occasion, it is rare to see an athlete connecting with the general population and transcending their sport to gain the attention of people who would not normally be interested, Black Caviar as accomplished this with her domination through 17 starts, and it looks to continue this weekend, it is definitely something to look forward to this weekend.
Reason Five
Location: Caulfield
Time: 5.50pm
Looking past the fact that simply having Black Caviar run makes this a special occasion, the race she is running in itself is something to look forward to. This race features a number of Group 1 winners, a Caulfield Cup Winner, a Melbourne Cup Winner, multiple horses with over or close to a million in earnings. This race will ask a question of Black Caviar, which doesn't happen too often and probably has not happened since Hay List asked some questions briefly last year, this question is the 1400m which is the first time she will attempt this distance.
Well here is the answer, of course she will handle the 1400m, she runs 1200m with out even getting out of second gear, if she needs to she can at least kick it into third. She finishes races with so much left in the tank that an extra 200m cannot possibly be a concern.
In regard to the quality competition, unfortunately only two of the horses in this race will likely have their next start at this distance, and they are unlikely to be a threat. The remaining horses Efficient, Playing God, Midas Touch, Precedence, Illo and Southern Speed are starting (or early in) their Autumn campaign, this is not a race they would have necessarily been targeting but it is a step as they begin to look at longer races.
Yes, Black Caviar will win, this is not a bold prediction, the interesting part of the race will be to see who else is winding up behind her. A lot of these horses met in other races in the spring, this will be a barometer as to how they are looking now and who is likely to finish on top of the longer races later in the Autumn.
Reason Six
Location: Sydney, Rosehill
Time: 6.50pm
There is also a big race on in Sydney this weekend worth watching. It is a 1200m race which features a few notable horses, three who have won over $2 million (Danleigh, Snipers Bullet, and Sacred Choice) and another two who will likely go over that mark should they win here (Rangirangdo and Shoot Out) and . Three of the runners have imposable records on the track (Rangirangdoo, Centennial Park and Winter King). There are a couple of up and comers with strong records to date, Rain Affair has such a impressive record. A couple are likely looking for a bit more ground. All with have ambitions of going on to bigger events later in the Autumn. Definitely something to look forward to.
Reason Seven
Location: Caulfield
Time: 7:10pm
Anabandana's first start in Australia. The quality kiwi filly is having a start over a distance she owned in New Zealand (1200m). This is probably one of the tougher fields she has faced overall, but she has the benefit of having Craig Williams who will make sure she is in the best place to show that turn of foot we all know she has. It will be great to see her over in Australia preparing to take on some of the top horses in the region, this will be a really good indication of just how good she can be.
Those are my highlights for this weekend, it really will be an excellent show at Te Rapa and everyone will have an eye across the Tasman as the Autumn begins to wind up.
Friday, 3 February 2012
The most interesting thing this weekend
It has been an eventful week in New Zealand racing with the Karaka Sales. Given that this is the case I still couldn't think of anything to write about this weekends racing action. I was not really interested in looking into anything happening at Otago, the Waikato races interest me but with the smallish Waikato Guineas field I didn't see the point in going into detail. My next thought was with the Sydney Autumn carnival just around the corner it might be worth having a look at races across the ditch and see how the build up is going, however after having a look at the fields in Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland nothing really grabbed my attention, I even had a quick scan of the races on Adelaide and Perth.
I was left with nothing to write about, more so than usual (or should that be less so?) and it has not stopped me in the past. I asked myself, what am I most interested in this weekend? The answer is the Waikato Guineas, but not really the race itself, the battle between leading Derby contender Ocean Park, and leading Oaks contender Silent Achiever (see I told you I would find a way to bring her up in every post until the Oaks).
In this post I will disrespect (and probably regret it later) every other horse they will face this weekend and commence a "tale of the tape" style breakdown on the Ocean Park vs Silent Achiever. Yes, and entire post focusing on two horses in a Group 3 race (that sound you just heard was every other reader slamming their palm on their forehead and rapidly clicking away from this post).
This seemingly unexciting race is really shaping up like a battle between two potential Group 1 winners. Now that I have sufficiently jinxed both of these feel free to put your money on Shuka this weekend. I really think Silent Achiever has a fairly clear run to the Oaks with less competition, I am very weary of Knight's Tour as competition to Ocean Park to the derby. I think if Ocean Park wins this he will likely shorten slightly for the Derby and Silent Achiever will probably not move too much in regard to the Oaks, conversely if Silent Achiever wins she will probably be significantly shorter as Oaks favourite, we Knights Tour may take over as Derby favourite. There is a lot at stake this weekend for these two horses.
I was left with nothing to write about, more so than usual (or should that be less so?) and it has not stopped me in the past. I asked myself, what am I most interested in this weekend? The answer is the Waikato Guineas, but not really the race itself, the battle between leading Derby contender Ocean Park, and leading Oaks contender Silent Achiever (see I told you I would find a way to bring her up in every post until the Oaks).
In this post I will disrespect (and probably regret it later) every other horse they will face this weekend and commence a "tale of the tape" style breakdown on the Ocean Park vs Silent Achiever. Yes, and entire post focusing on two horses in a Group 3 race (that sound you just heard was every other reader slamming their palm on their forehead and rapidly clicking away from this post).
| Category | Ocean Park | Silent Achiever | Edge | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | 3YO | 3YO | Even | If you want to get technical Silent Achiever is 25 Days older than Ocean Park. |
| Sex | Colt | Filly | Even | I am not going to touch that one. |
| Overall Record | 4-3-1-0 | 4-2-1-1 | Ocean Park | |
| Distance Record | 0-0 | 0-0 | Silent Achiever | Has won over 2100m while Ocean Park has not raced over more than 1600m, however was so impressive it looked like 2000m will be no problem. |
| Best Win | Jan 21st @ Wellington (1600m Group 3) | Jan 1st @ Ellerslie (2100m Group 2) | Ocean Park | Was so impressive two weeks ago running away over 1600m. |
| Best Loss | December 26th @ Ellerslie 2nd to Knights Tour (1600m Group 2) | December 26th @ Ellerslie 3rd to Planet Rock and Testa Secret (1600m Group 2) | Silent Achiever | Ocean Park's run was amazing for second, but the 3rd was in an absolutely stacked Eight Carat Classic. |
| Jockey | Chad Ormsby | James McDonald | Slight edge, Silent Achiever | It is closer than you may think, Chad Ormsby has a relationship with Ocean Park, but James McDonald is the best Jockey in the country. |
| The Tron | Trained in Matamata, won twice left handed. | Trained in Cambridge, first start left handed. | Ocean Park | Both don't have too far to travel, Ocean Park's left handed results give him the edge. |
| Big Beats | Shuka, Burgundy (twice), Joy's Choice, Nashville, Fort Lincoln | Dowager Queen, Artistic, Xanadu, Holy Moly, Abeautifulred, Shuka | Silent Achiever | Thus far in their respective careers it is clear that Silent Achiever has beaten horses with bigger profiles. |
| Name | Ocean Park? What is that anyway? | Silent Achiever, is that what you really want. | Slight Edge Ocean Park | Neither name really stands out, will give the slight edge to Ocean Park because at least they incorporated the sire Thorn Park, so it is not just something pointless and made up. |
| Colours | Blue with a white cross and sleeves | Gold | Ocean Park | Have to admit that the Silent Achiever colours are a bit boring, then again they are easy to spot during the running. |
| Trainer Success this year | 23-5-1-3 and $90k this year with an impressive 4.6 strike rake, thanks in big part to Ocean Park | 96-17-116-9 and $300k this year at an impressive 5.65 strike rate. Not to mention an Australian Group 1 Victory which was not a victory. | Silent Achiever | But it is relative to the size of their operations. |
| Biggest Derby/Oaks Competition | Knight's Tour | Chicharita | Silent Achiever | Despite the $5 quote, it just looks like an easier race to win. |
| Holy hell that was impressive moment | Pulling away from a Group 3 field and winning impressively last start | Her first win where she flew home over the last 200m for victory. | Ocean Park | I am very biased, I was on course for that Silent Achiever victory, and it was one for the most impressive things I have seen in person. However, that Ocean Park win was at Group 3 level. |
| Who's your daddy? | Thorn Park | O'Reilly | Silent Achiever | Thorn Park Sold 10 Lots @ $126,000 O'Reilly Sold 39 @ $138,077 at the recent premier sale at Karaka. That seems like a fair measurement. |
| Predicted Finishing Position Saturday | First | Second | Ocean Park | I really, really wanted to call Silent Achiever here, but I just couldn't do it, I have totally bought into the Ocean Park hype, however I think I will place some money on Silent Achiever. |
| Overall | Won 7 Categories | Won 7 Categories | Even | After all of this it is fairly even between these two and we are probably looking at the New Zealand Derby and Oaks winners this year. |
This seemingly unexciting race is really shaping up like a battle between two potential Group 1 winners. Now that I have sufficiently jinxed both of these feel free to put your money on Shuka this weekend. I really think Silent Achiever has a fairly clear run to the Oaks with less competition, I am very weary of Knight's Tour as competition to Ocean Park to the derby. I think if Ocean Park wins this he will likely shorten slightly for the Derby and Silent Achiever will probably not move too much in regard to the Oaks, conversely if Silent Achiever wins she will probably be significantly shorter as Oaks favourite, we Knights Tour may take over as Derby favourite. There is a lot at stake this weekend for these two horses.
Tuesday, 31 January 2012
Two Year Old Power Rankings
What a great night the Karaka Million was. I was away for the weekend but luckily was able to find someone with Sky TV to watch the racing action. I started watching on Trackside (or TAB TV, I can never figure out which is which) and then switched over the Sky Sports to watch their coverage. I was very impressed with the coverage overall, it was excellent to follow one race meeting and really get a feel for what is happening on Track. I understand the economics of Trackside/TAB TV showing as many races as possible to give people a chance to bet, but when I generally bet from home I will watch one or two meetings and focus solely on one code so it was excellent to watch the racing all from one meeting and have detailed information about what was going on at the event.
The coverage on Sky was targeted towards people who were less experienced with the racing game which is fine to generate interest from these people; and given that it was the night for Karaka to shine they did focus on the sales trying to get people involved in racing which again is a good thing. My only complaint was the lack of graphics displaying information throughout the evening, but with my iPad in front of my this was not really a big deal (although it would be great to have an official TAB application).
The Karaka Million race was great, there was a lot happening throughout, the race probably didn't go to plan for a lot of the runners (including the winner from the sound of things), but the finish was excellent with Ockham's Razor chasing down Silk Pins wide on the track, surely it will give a positive lasting impression to those people tuning in who maybe don't spend a lot of time following racing.
I have been doing a Three Year Old Power Rankings for a few months now, but now I feel we have sufficient form to dust this gimmick off for the 2YO's in the first edition of my completely subjective 2YO Power Rankings. Some indication of the methodology is probably important, here is what I wrote in my second edition of the 3YO Power Rankings;
(10) Magic Shaft: Solid to date, debut was made at Group 3 level when he ran 3rd behind Warhorse and Irish Rebel, he followed this up with a second to Hogwarts Express, it is to early to say if that race will produce anything else of quality but the Group placing has a lot of merit at this point in the year.
(9) Hogwarts Express: Was 7th in the Karaka million, but this ranking is based on a body of work and performances up to this point, he was 3rd at Group 2 level, and consistently close prior to that.
(8) Mai Guru: 5th in the Karaka million, but together impressive performances prior to this he finds himself 8th in these rankings. He will continue to improve and should be more suited to 1200m next attempt.
(7) Choice Bro: Ran home well in the Karaka Million for 4th, was chasing Silk Pins before having Warhorse and Ockhams Razor knock him down to forth, had a very impressive victory earlier on in the year.
(6) Hazel: Makes the list on the back of a strong second at Group 2 level. He showed a lot of fight down the straight and was beaten by a flying Pussy Willow. Was 5th first start to Mai Guru and two others he went on to beat when he had a extra 100m in the race at Wellington.
(5) Irish Rebel: Was highly rated when he impressively won his first start. He has then put forward strong performances at Group level finishing second to Warhorse and forth to Pussy Willow.
(4) Pussy Willow: Undefeated in two starts including a win at Group 2 Level. She wound up brilliantly down the home straight to win against a big field.
(3) Warhorse: Despite having won only one of his four starts he has not been far away in the other starts. The 6th in the Wentwood Grange Stakes wasn't as bad as it looked and he was favourite for the Karaka Million up until the last few minutes.
(2) Silk Pins: She was half a length away from winning the Karaka million which should add to the hype, however the results before this add up to keep her this high on the list. She has beaten Warhorse twice now (in three meetings) and Travino once (in two meetings, and may have beaten him the second time with luck),. She was also able to overcome a lot of other good Two Year Olds on the weekend.
(1) Travino : He has to be number 1 at this point. He benefits from not facing a few of the other contenders over the last couple of months. He has won two at listed level and travelled to the Gold Coast for the Magic Millions, despite coming 12th in that event he has the results and hype to top this list.
It is still early in the year, 2YO's are still starting their campaigns, we have two Group 1's for this age group, it will be interesting to see who emerges over the rest of the summer and into the Autumn.
The coverage on Sky was targeted towards people who were less experienced with the racing game which is fine to generate interest from these people; and given that it was the night for Karaka to shine they did focus on the sales trying to get people involved in racing which again is a good thing. My only complaint was the lack of graphics displaying information throughout the evening, but with my iPad in front of my this was not really a big deal (although it would be great to have an official TAB application).
The Karaka Million race was great, there was a lot happening throughout, the race probably didn't go to plan for a lot of the runners (including the winner from the sound of things), but the finish was excellent with Ockham's Razor chasing down Silk Pins wide on the track, surely it will give a positive lasting impression to those people tuning in who maybe don't spend a lot of time following racing.
I have been doing a Three Year Old Power Rankings for a few months now, but now I feel we have sufficient form to dust this gimmick off for the 2YO's in the first edition of my completely subjective 2YO Power Rankings. Some indication of the methodology is probably important, here is what I wrote in my second edition of the 3YO Power Rankings;
"I guess what is required is a definition of 'Power' for the purpose of the power rankings, another thing I didn't do properly when I first attempted this. There is no formula, it is not the highest rated, nor are they a genuine indication of which 3YO would beat each other 3YO (all things been equal). I am applying an incredibly loose and very subjective definition of Power for these rankings will be an indication of my impression of a number of factors including
- Overall Record
- Recent Form
- Dominance of victories
- Form in 'big' races
- Form against other top 3YO (and older) talent
- Buzz (Media and Bookie)"
(10) Magic Shaft: Solid to date, debut was made at Group 3 level when he ran 3rd behind Warhorse and Irish Rebel, he followed this up with a second to Hogwarts Express, it is to early to say if that race will produce anything else of quality but the Group placing has a lot of merit at this point in the year.
(9) Hogwarts Express: Was 7th in the Karaka million, but this ranking is based on a body of work and performances up to this point, he was 3rd at Group 2 level, and consistently close prior to that.
(8) Mai Guru: 5th in the Karaka million, but together impressive performances prior to this he finds himself 8th in these rankings. He will continue to improve and should be more suited to 1200m next attempt.
(7) Choice Bro: Ran home well in the Karaka Million for 4th, was chasing Silk Pins before having Warhorse and Ockhams Razor knock him down to forth, had a very impressive victory earlier on in the year.
(6) Hazel: Makes the list on the back of a strong second at Group 2 level. He showed a lot of fight down the straight and was beaten by a flying Pussy Willow. Was 5th first start to Mai Guru and two others he went on to beat when he had a extra 100m in the race at Wellington.
(5) Irish Rebel: Was highly rated when he impressively won his first start. He has then put forward strong performances at Group level finishing second to Warhorse and forth to Pussy Willow.
(4) Pussy Willow: Undefeated in two starts including a win at Group 2 Level. She wound up brilliantly down the home straight to win against a big field.
(3) Warhorse: Despite having won only one of his four starts he has not been far away in the other starts. The 6th in the Wentwood Grange Stakes wasn't as bad as it looked and he was favourite for the Karaka Million up until the last few minutes.
(2) Silk Pins: She was half a length away from winning the Karaka million which should add to the hype, however the results before this add up to keep her this high on the list. She has beaten Warhorse twice now (in three meetings) and Travino once (in two meetings, and may have beaten him the second time with luck),. She was also able to overcome a lot of other good Two Year Olds on the weekend.
(1) Travino : He has to be number 1 at this point. He benefits from not facing a few of the other contenders over the last couple of months. He has won two at listed level and travelled to the Gold Coast for the Magic Millions, despite coming 12th in that event he has the results and hype to top this list.
It is still early in the year, 2YO's are still starting their campaigns, we have two Group 1's for this age group, it will be interesting to see who emerges over the rest of the summer and into the Autumn.
Thursday, 26 January 2012
Karaka Millions Preview
It is Group 1 Thorndon Mile weekend and I choose to preview a listed race? well in this case that race happens to be the Karaka Million and it is currently New Zealand's richest race.
How do you preview a race when the most experienced horse will be having their 6th start? how do you bet on a race when the TAB currently has seven horses between $5 and $9? I am not sure, but I am about to find out. The advantage is that via the NZ Racing site it is possible to quickly watch film on every runner to help your decision.
This is an excellent event, it is great having it on a Sunday night of a long weekend in Auckland. You have a nice punchy six race quality card with two feature races for Karaka Graduates. It is also an excellent way for Karaka to preview their upcoming sales which begin next Wednesday.
It will come as no surprise to anyone who is reading this, who also happens to live with me, that I enjoy the Karaka sales (that is a short list, but still a valid point is coming), Trackside has excellent coverage of the sales, it is always fun to sift through the catalogue and guess prices and to literally watch people spend millions of dollars in a matter of minutes, the coverage lets you feel involved. I must congratulate Karaka on their use of technology, they have an excellent website and the iPad available catalogue is great (and must be even a better tool for those actually attending), I have ranted at great length about how use of technology could increase the fan experience, so I have to praise when someone is making good use of it.
(1) Warhorse: Has the horror draw, he will most likely end up in the outside barrier (unless there is two scratchings), however I would have felt the same about Guiseppina's draw heading into last weekend. At Ellerslie over 1200m a winner has come from barrier 14 only 5% of the time, if he ends up in barrier 13 that percentage increases to 10% (which feels like a statistical quirk from a lowish sample size, I am not sure how often either barrier is used over that distance). Warhorse is a winner of one of his three starts, the win did come in Auckland at Group 3 level, he won impressively despite sitting three wide throughout, he really showed an explosive next gear over the last 150m. Prior to that in Hamilton he got away slowly, looked to have something happen at about 500m out, and then got pushed wide on the turn, but again he seemed to come home well over the last 200m. I can imagine for him to win this he will have to come from wide and most likely the back half of the field, it will be tough, but with that big finish he is capable.
(2) Silver City: The Stephen McKee trained Silver City has been freshened since his 8th in the Wentwood Grange Stakes (indecently he was the one pushing Warhorse wide on the corner), he did win his first two starts. I think we are more likely to see the horse we saw winning in October at Trentham, but that track was very wet that day, while there is not a lot of evidence to claim that maybe he just handled the conditions better than most, it may well prove to be the case.
(3) Ockham's Razor: Ironically in a race with as little exposed form as this we may be applying Ockham's Razor to make our decision, unfortunately that logic will count against this horse, just due to how little we know about it. You have to be weary of any horse who is brought over from Australia for this race, but potentially Sell in May is the one you should be more weary of given what we know.
(4) Green Wings: Winner of his last two, including a course and distance win two weeks ago, in that performance he also beat three of his competitors in this race. All four of those competitors in that race possibly have excuses as to why it was not their best performance, but Green Wings and Freedom both have more positives to take away. Green wings looked far more comfortable winning two starts back, again beating another competitor he will face in this race. He will most likely push forward from barrier 11, he has got out of the barriers well in starts to-date so I would not expect him to have any troubles getting to the lead.
(5) Freedom: If you look past the poor start when beaten course and distance you will see a strong finish. Prior to this our second of three McKee runners beat two other horses nominated for this race at Ellerslie, in that race he got away better but didn't look too comfortable following runners, he accelerated into a gap at about the 300m and then really took off into a gap with about 100m to go. More experience should help, but in this size field from barrier 10 (or 9 depending on scratchings), he will find it hard to avoid traffic, it almost seems like he would be more comfortable racing wide uncovered, he seems to have a motor which will see him hitting the line well, but it will depend on where he is and how much energy he has spent to get into that position.
(6) Taoist Master: The first of our John Sargent horses in this race (there is still a possibility there might be five), I just get the impression that this is a race John Sargent badly wants to win (I am sure all trainers want that), there have just been a few things I have read over the past 18 months or so that would indicate he is always searching for runners who can compete in this and win it; and I am sure it will be no different at the sales next week. He is having an outstanding season to date and he has some big chances here. As for this horse if you choose to take it you will have to forget about that last start performance, luckily if you look at the first start you will be impressed. Taoist Master really looked comfortable stretching out over the last couple of hundred meters and James McDonald really let the horse do most of the work. That horse looks like a winner, the one from two weeks ago does not.
(7) Mai Guru: Was narrowly beaten by Freedom in his first start. He has had another start for a win since. He actually looked good in both races and seemed like he had more experience than a 2YO with two starts. He carried 58kgs last start under handicap conditions, so should actually get relief with the 2YO set weights. Barrier two should suit, he will get out of the gate well and probably track Green Wings coming from wide out.
(8) Choice Bro: Was a winner here during the Christmas carnival, he was highly favoured then and showed class winning comfortably. His first start was probably a fair indication, he was shuffled back beyond midfield and worked home well, not explosively, but steadily accelerating and chasing home Irish Rebel who was simply too good. Barrier four should suit and he should be able to be handy enough following the leaders.
(9) Deakes: Was beaten at Group 2 level on the weekend by Hogwarts Express (who has been beaten by Green Wings), and Irish Rebel (who beat Choice Bro recently), those results point to other options in this race. However, when you look at the video and the stewards comments maybe he has an excuse, he looked to recover and come home well, but I am not sure there is enough to recommend him here. He looked better in his first two starts in smaller fields down south, but this is tough.
(10) Sell in May: Our first filly and second visitor from Aussie. She is a winner in Melbourne and looked good testing Auckland the other day. There seems to be good buzz around this horse and she is rightfully one of the favourites. She seems to have a big finish which should suit in her first attempt over 1200m.
(11) Silk Pins: This horse has beaten Warhorse and Travino, not too many in New Zealand can say that. It was a fighting run and I remember been impressed at the time. She went on to place at listed level (this time behind Travino), it was an impressive and patient performance where she was inside Travino for most of the race, he got the run early and she had to work a lot harder for it, but really came hard for them at the end. Her most recent start was a 6th at Group 3 level on New Year's day (the race won by Warhorse), she was back (possibly bumped) and searching for a run which never came. Barrier 14 (which will probably move in one by the race start) shouldn't be an issue, she will be off the pace and likely off the rail, which could benefit and allow for a clear run at the finish.
(12) Hogwarts Express: A real enigma; that seems counter-intuitive as we have more footage on this filly than any other in this race. Her form has been consistently solid, but she seems to have matched up against a few of the top 2YO's (and other competitors here) and come off second best. She looked good at Group 2 level on the weekend, and I think she is getting better. She actually reminds me a bit of Duckworth Lewis, a horse who raced solidly as a 2YO with limited success then came on as a 3YO. Following that trajectory remains to be seen, but I feel like she has been discounted too easily here, however when I look for reasons to pick her I struggle to find them.
(13) Marechal: Has won one from three starts, no one he beat that day has really gone on to do much since, two of the horses she beat went on to come 4th and 5th in the Wentwood Grange Stakes (beating runners in this race), but that is it. She fought well for the win that day. Her last start was a distant 4th to Warhorse and Irish Rebel, I think she would need an improvement on that to feature here.
(14) Dreamcoat: Another horse we know a bit about. You really need to forget the last start if you are trying to convince yourself to put your money on this horse, Trudy Thornton who rode her that day said that she didn't handle the track conditions (which was Dead), and there is probably merit to that as her only other race day failure was also on a dead track. In races to date she has been beaten by Silk Pins, Warhorse, Green Wings, Freedom, and Taoist Master. However she was able to beat rival Hogwarts Express on a good track. Her victory on the course was impressive, but again none of the horses she beat have gone on to blow us away since. Barrier 6 may actually be difficult for her, their is probably speed inside her and outside her, she looked good leading but may have to follow here, she will be handy but I find it hard to see her winning.
Now to make a selection, I have just basically made a case for all of the runners and this is a weird race; there is a lot at stake and there are inexperienced horses who can potentially hamper others, so it is very hard to make a selection.
Who have I ruled out? Warhorse (barrier has put me off), Silver City (this seems a bit tough), Freedom (too erratic to recommend), Deakes (put off by the last start), Hogwarts Express (can feature, but hard to see it winning), Marechal (this field seems to strong), Dreamcoat (on a good track it is possible, but again the field is maybe too strong).
First: Sell in May - I rate the Melbourne form coming into this.
Second: Green Wings - I think he will be our leader
Third: Silk Pins - Will be coming home strongly
Forth: Warhorse - Too good not to be involved
Fifth: Taoist Master - I would include this in multiples and hope to get a performance like its first start.
How do you preview a race when the most experienced horse will be having their 6th start? how do you bet on a race when the TAB currently has seven horses between $5 and $9? I am not sure, but I am about to find out. The advantage is that via the NZ Racing site it is possible to quickly watch film on every runner to help your decision.
This is an excellent event, it is great having it on a Sunday night of a long weekend in Auckland. You have a nice punchy six race quality card with two feature races for Karaka Graduates. It is also an excellent way for Karaka to preview their upcoming sales which begin next Wednesday.
It will come as no surprise to anyone who is reading this, who also happens to live with me, that I enjoy the Karaka sales (that is a short list, but still a valid point is coming), Trackside has excellent coverage of the sales, it is always fun to sift through the catalogue and guess prices and to literally watch people spend millions of dollars in a matter of minutes, the coverage lets you feel involved. I must congratulate Karaka on their use of technology, they have an excellent website and the iPad available catalogue is great (and must be even a better tool for those actually attending), I have ranted at great length about how use of technology could increase the fan experience, so I have to praise when someone is making good use of it.
(1) Warhorse: Has the horror draw, he will most likely end up in the outside barrier (unless there is two scratchings), however I would have felt the same about Guiseppina's draw heading into last weekend. At Ellerslie over 1200m a winner has come from barrier 14 only 5% of the time, if he ends up in barrier 13 that percentage increases to 10% (which feels like a statistical quirk from a lowish sample size, I am not sure how often either barrier is used over that distance). Warhorse is a winner of one of his three starts, the win did come in Auckland at Group 3 level, he won impressively despite sitting three wide throughout, he really showed an explosive next gear over the last 150m. Prior to that in Hamilton he got away slowly, looked to have something happen at about 500m out, and then got pushed wide on the turn, but again he seemed to come home well over the last 200m. I can imagine for him to win this he will have to come from wide and most likely the back half of the field, it will be tough, but with that big finish he is capable.
(2) Silver City: The Stephen McKee trained Silver City has been freshened since his 8th in the Wentwood Grange Stakes (indecently he was the one pushing Warhorse wide on the corner), he did win his first two starts. I think we are more likely to see the horse we saw winning in October at Trentham, but that track was very wet that day, while there is not a lot of evidence to claim that maybe he just handled the conditions better than most, it may well prove to be the case.
(3) Ockham's Razor: Ironically in a race with as little exposed form as this we may be applying Ockham's Razor to make our decision, unfortunately that logic will count against this horse, just due to how little we know about it. You have to be weary of any horse who is brought over from Australia for this race, but potentially Sell in May is the one you should be more weary of given what we know.
(4) Green Wings: Winner of his last two, including a course and distance win two weeks ago, in that performance he also beat three of his competitors in this race. All four of those competitors in that race possibly have excuses as to why it was not their best performance, but Green Wings and Freedom both have more positives to take away. Green wings looked far more comfortable winning two starts back, again beating another competitor he will face in this race. He will most likely push forward from barrier 11, he has got out of the barriers well in starts to-date so I would not expect him to have any troubles getting to the lead.
(5) Freedom: If you look past the poor start when beaten course and distance you will see a strong finish. Prior to this our second of three McKee runners beat two other horses nominated for this race at Ellerslie, in that race he got away better but didn't look too comfortable following runners, he accelerated into a gap at about the 300m and then really took off into a gap with about 100m to go. More experience should help, but in this size field from barrier 10 (or 9 depending on scratchings), he will find it hard to avoid traffic, it almost seems like he would be more comfortable racing wide uncovered, he seems to have a motor which will see him hitting the line well, but it will depend on where he is and how much energy he has spent to get into that position.
(6) Taoist Master: The first of our John Sargent horses in this race (there is still a possibility there might be five), I just get the impression that this is a race John Sargent badly wants to win (I am sure all trainers want that), there have just been a few things I have read over the past 18 months or so that would indicate he is always searching for runners who can compete in this and win it; and I am sure it will be no different at the sales next week. He is having an outstanding season to date and he has some big chances here. As for this horse if you choose to take it you will have to forget about that last start performance, luckily if you look at the first start you will be impressed. Taoist Master really looked comfortable stretching out over the last couple of hundred meters and James McDonald really let the horse do most of the work. That horse looks like a winner, the one from two weeks ago does not.
(7) Mai Guru: Was narrowly beaten by Freedom in his first start. He has had another start for a win since. He actually looked good in both races and seemed like he had more experience than a 2YO with two starts. He carried 58kgs last start under handicap conditions, so should actually get relief with the 2YO set weights. Barrier two should suit, he will get out of the gate well and probably track Green Wings coming from wide out.
(8) Choice Bro: Was a winner here during the Christmas carnival, he was highly favoured then and showed class winning comfortably. His first start was probably a fair indication, he was shuffled back beyond midfield and worked home well, not explosively, but steadily accelerating and chasing home Irish Rebel who was simply too good. Barrier four should suit and he should be able to be handy enough following the leaders.
(9) Deakes: Was beaten at Group 2 level on the weekend by Hogwarts Express (who has been beaten by Green Wings), and Irish Rebel (who beat Choice Bro recently), those results point to other options in this race. However, when you look at the video and the stewards comments maybe he has an excuse, he looked to recover and come home well, but I am not sure there is enough to recommend him here. He looked better in his first two starts in smaller fields down south, but this is tough.
(10) Sell in May: Our first filly and second visitor from Aussie. She is a winner in Melbourne and looked good testing Auckland the other day. There seems to be good buzz around this horse and she is rightfully one of the favourites. She seems to have a big finish which should suit in her first attempt over 1200m.
(11) Silk Pins: This horse has beaten Warhorse and Travino, not too many in New Zealand can say that. It was a fighting run and I remember been impressed at the time. She went on to place at listed level (this time behind Travino), it was an impressive and patient performance where she was inside Travino for most of the race, he got the run early and she had to work a lot harder for it, but really came hard for them at the end. Her most recent start was a 6th at Group 3 level on New Year's day (the race won by Warhorse), she was back (possibly bumped) and searching for a run which never came. Barrier 14 (which will probably move in one by the race start) shouldn't be an issue, she will be off the pace and likely off the rail, which could benefit and allow for a clear run at the finish.
(12) Hogwarts Express: A real enigma; that seems counter-intuitive as we have more footage on this filly than any other in this race. Her form has been consistently solid, but she seems to have matched up against a few of the top 2YO's (and other competitors here) and come off second best. She looked good at Group 2 level on the weekend, and I think she is getting better. She actually reminds me a bit of Duckworth Lewis, a horse who raced solidly as a 2YO with limited success then came on as a 3YO. Following that trajectory remains to be seen, but I feel like she has been discounted too easily here, however when I look for reasons to pick her I struggle to find them.
(13) Marechal: Has won one from three starts, no one he beat that day has really gone on to do much since, two of the horses she beat went on to come 4th and 5th in the Wentwood Grange Stakes (beating runners in this race), but that is it. She fought well for the win that day. Her last start was a distant 4th to Warhorse and Irish Rebel, I think she would need an improvement on that to feature here.
(14) Dreamcoat: Another horse we know a bit about. You really need to forget the last start if you are trying to convince yourself to put your money on this horse, Trudy Thornton who rode her that day said that she didn't handle the track conditions (which was Dead), and there is probably merit to that as her only other race day failure was also on a dead track. In races to date she has been beaten by Silk Pins, Warhorse, Green Wings, Freedom, and Taoist Master. However she was able to beat rival Hogwarts Express on a good track. Her victory on the course was impressive, but again none of the horses she beat have gone on to blow us away since. Barrier 6 may actually be difficult for her, their is probably speed inside her and outside her, she looked good leading but may have to follow here, she will be handy but I find it hard to see her winning.
Now to make a selection, I have just basically made a case for all of the runners and this is a weird race; there is a lot at stake and there are inexperienced horses who can potentially hamper others, so it is very hard to make a selection.
Who have I ruled out? Warhorse (barrier has put me off), Silver City (this seems a bit tough), Freedom (too erratic to recommend), Deakes (put off by the last start), Hogwarts Express (can feature, but hard to see it winning), Marechal (this field seems to strong), Dreamcoat (on a good track it is possible, but again the field is maybe too strong).
First: Sell in May - I rate the Melbourne form coming into this.
Second: Green Wings - I think he will be our leader
Third: Silk Pins - Will be coming home strongly
Forth: Warhorse - Too good not to be involved
Fifth: Taoist Master - I would include this in multiples and hope to get a performance like its first start.
Tuesday, 24 January 2012
January 3YO Power Rankings
This week might be the week for the 2YO's to shine with the Karaka Millions coming up over Auckland Anniversary weekend at Ellerslie. I will cover that race and the 2YO's in general later in the week, but today I will have a look at the 3YO's with another rendition of my completely subjective 3YO Power Rankings. There have been a lot of events for the 3YO's over the Christmas period since my last rankings, there have been six races above listed level (including the Gore Guineas, which for the purposes of this list we wont include) and we are well into our build up for the New Zealand Derby (39 Sleeps!).
The big 3YO stories over the past month include;
Story: Planet Rock's impressive Boxing Day win, and then following up with a pretty close forth on New Years day over 2000m.
Conclusion: She looked great on Boxing day, and looked good New Years day as well getting caught in the last 100m, it might have just been the wear and tear of two runs in seven days combined with the first 2000m effort, but I would still consider her one to watch over that distance.
Story: Burgundy's question marks. Looked to have a great position on Boxing day, just couldn't finish. Had a disaster last Saturday at Wellington, started poorly, raced wide and back, moved forward and was blocked at about 600m, then showed a good finish for third.
Conclusion: Ocean Park looked fantastic in that race on the weekend and is the story to focus on. Burgundy still seems to have the talent but just cannot put it together in these big races.
Story: Emerging Derby Contenders
Conclusion: Knights Tour was amazing on boxing day, it was a great finish and showed the ability to go over more distance, particularly given he caught and passed Burgundy and fought hard against Ocean Park. Ocean Park looks to have gone to another level in Wellington smashing them in a good Group 3 field. I am certain other contenders will come to light as we approach March 3.
Story: My man-crush (?) on Silent Achiever
Conclusion: I figure if I mention this horse in everything I write over the next couple of months good things will happen. She is now the Oaks favourite and why not with that explosive finish. She was great on Boxing day in a race which where she was screaming for a bit more distance, then took on the fellas over 2100m which had the advantage of having an extra 100m over the 3YOF race that day. She was basically last on the turn and really smoked them. Looking at those Oak's odds $5 seems short to take this far out, $9 for Planet Rock is still tempting.
Onwards to the 3YO rankings.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings: Dowager Queen (8), Zurella (9)
Honourable Mention: Testa Secret (hardest omission) Burgundy (what to expect?), Artistic (on a series of 4ths against good opposition), Shuka (always solid), Nashville, Xanadu (not sure I agree but I know she would be discussed before any big race).
Number 10 - Duckworth Lewis (8) - Just found the Zabeel Classic slightly too hard, but he was far from the worst with a strong 7th, he will show a lot more against his own age group.
Number 9 - Distil (6) - We wont see him again in New Zealand so is slowly drifting down this list.
Number 8 - Silent Achiever (HM) - Moved up from honourable mention with her impressive finishes since the last rankings.
Number 7 - Rock'n'Pop (2) - he is a Group 1 winner. He resumed with a last in a small field over 1600m and will look to improve from that if he is to contend in the Derby.
Number 6 - Knight's Tour (N/A) - his fortune is now closely linked to the fortune of number 5 on this list, he is the only horse to have beaten him. Then why is he not higher? he is not getting the same buzz.
Number 5 - Ocean Park (N/A) - Almost by definition he needs to be this high on the list. If everyone is talking about your amazing performance and you have improved to derby favourite then you have the Power.
Number 4 - Anabandana (4) - Now has not raced since the Guineas, it is not evident when we will next get a look at this classy filly.
Number 3 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - I still see him as a Group 1 winner in waiting, less than impressive last start but should bounce back fresh when we next see him.
Number 2 - Sangster (1) - Diminishing in these rankings because he is not in the forefront of our minds, can't see any nominations for him so he might be looking at an extended spell before the Queensland winter. I would still consider him a Derby favourite (if he was nominated) even after the impressive Kinght's Tour and Ocean Park performances.
Number 1 - Planet Rock (5) - The big Group 2 win pushes her up, you can excuse the following week, she still has the power.
Value Derby Proposition: Shuka ($31)
Long shot Derby Proposition: Shanghai Bund ($51) (longest shot I can see winning at this point)
The big 3YO stories over the past month include;
Story: Planet Rock's impressive Boxing Day win, and then following up with a pretty close forth on New Years day over 2000m.
Conclusion: She looked great on Boxing day, and looked good New Years day as well getting caught in the last 100m, it might have just been the wear and tear of two runs in seven days combined with the first 2000m effort, but I would still consider her one to watch over that distance.
Story: Burgundy's question marks. Looked to have a great position on Boxing day, just couldn't finish. Had a disaster last Saturday at Wellington, started poorly, raced wide and back, moved forward and was blocked at about 600m, then showed a good finish for third.
Conclusion: Ocean Park looked fantastic in that race on the weekend and is the story to focus on. Burgundy still seems to have the talent but just cannot put it together in these big races.
Story: Emerging Derby Contenders
Conclusion: Knights Tour was amazing on boxing day, it was a great finish and showed the ability to go over more distance, particularly given he caught and passed Burgundy and fought hard against Ocean Park. Ocean Park looks to have gone to another level in Wellington smashing them in a good Group 3 field. I am certain other contenders will come to light as we approach March 3.
Story: My man-crush (?) on Silent Achiever
Conclusion: I figure if I mention this horse in everything I write over the next couple of months good things will happen. She is now the Oaks favourite and why not with that explosive finish. She was great on Boxing day in a race which where she was screaming for a bit more distance, then took on the fellas over 2100m which had the advantage of having an extra 100m over the 3YOF race that day. She was basically last on the turn and really smoked them. Looking at those Oak's odds $5 seems short to take this far out, $9 for Planet Rock is still tempting.
Onwards to the 3YO rankings.
Power Rankings
Dropped from Rankings: Dowager Queen (8), Zurella (9)
Honourable Mention: Testa Secret (hardest omission) Burgundy (what to expect?), Artistic (on a series of 4ths against good opposition), Shuka (always solid), Nashville, Xanadu (not sure I agree but I know she would be discussed before any big race).
Number 10 - Duckworth Lewis (8) - Just found the Zabeel Classic slightly too hard, but he was far from the worst with a strong 7th, he will show a lot more against his own age group.
Number 9 - Distil (6) - We wont see him again in New Zealand so is slowly drifting down this list.
Number 8 - Silent Achiever (HM) - Moved up from honourable mention with her impressive finishes since the last rankings.
Number 7 - Rock'n'Pop (2) - he is a Group 1 winner. He resumed with a last in a small field over 1600m and will look to improve from that if he is to contend in the Derby.
Number 6 - Knight's Tour (N/A) - his fortune is now closely linked to the fortune of number 5 on this list, he is the only horse to have beaten him. Then why is he not higher? he is not getting the same buzz.
Number 5 - Ocean Park (N/A) - Almost by definition he needs to be this high on the list. If everyone is talking about your amazing performance and you have improved to derby favourite then you have the Power.
Number 4 - Anabandana (4) - Now has not raced since the Guineas, it is not evident when we will next get a look at this classy filly.
Number 3 - Antonio Lombardo (3) - I still see him as a Group 1 winner in waiting, less than impressive last start but should bounce back fresh when we next see him.
Number 2 - Sangster (1) - Diminishing in these rankings because he is not in the forefront of our minds, can't see any nominations for him so he might be looking at an extended spell before the Queensland winter. I would still consider him a Derby favourite (if he was nominated) even after the impressive Kinght's Tour and Ocean Park performances.
Number 1 - Planet Rock (5) - The big Group 2 win pushes her up, you can excuse the following week, she still has the power.
Value Derby Proposition: Shuka ($31)
Long shot Derby Proposition: Shanghai Bund ($51) (longest shot I can see winning at this point)
Thursday, 19 January 2012
Predicting every 2012 Group 1 winner
Sorry, I have been a little quiet recently. I have basically been away since Boxing Day races (which was an awesome day by the way), and my house was broken into prior to Christmas and all three TV's in the house were stolen (which makes it difficult to comment on racing you cannot see), the last thing I wrote was not even for this site, it was for The Punters Forum. I am now back and ready to look forward to another excellent year of racing in 2012.
We are just days away from what is shaping up to be a exciting Telegraph Handicap, so I thought I would pick a winner... I decided I would also try to pick a winner for each of the remaining Group 1 races in New Zealand this season, and the ones next season until the end of 2012 (assuming the World is still here). Obviously, I don't know who will be nominated, the conditions, or what the field may look like, but it should be fun anyway (particularly fun to look back on this and see just how far away I am).
The Date:1 January 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Railway Stakes
My Prediction: Atomic Force
The Reasoning: Ok, maybe I have cheated on that one since it happened 19 days ago.
The Date:21 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Telegraph Handicap
My Prediction: Durham Town
The Reasoning: While I think this is the kind of race which could produce an unexpected winner. I like a few of the horses in this race, but I think the weight relief from the Railway will help. Guiseppina and The Hombre may struggle from their draws. Atomic Force is currently the deserved favourite. To go a bit longer in the odds I like the look of Eight Shillings if he makes the field (and I suspect he will).
The Date:28 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Thorndon Mile Handicap
My Prediction: Dating
The Reasoning: Tough race, Platinum Princess has certainly proved herself, Hold it Harvey seems to like Wellington, and I like the looks of Smoulder and Banchee also, but this looks like the kind of race which could suit Dating and she should compare well with the other contenders in terms of weight.
The Date: 11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Darci Brahma International Stakes
My Prediction: Shez Sensational
The Reasoning: Who is currently the best middle distance WFA horse in the country? After the impressive Zabeel Classic win Shez Sensational certainly has to be considered. Will Jimmy Choux be back from his lay off for this, hard to say.
The Date:11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: International Sprint
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: The defending champion. While he might be out-weighted in the Thorndon Mile and the Telegraph Handicap, WFA conditions should suit Mufhasa here. Obviously, I have no knowledge of when Jimmy Choux might return, but if he does come back for an Autumn campaign this race might be a logical starting point to build up and maybe attack the NZ stakes on Diamond Day during Auckland Cup week.
The Date:25 February 2012
The Location: Otaki
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Otaki WFA
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: Maybe he will be looking to head over to Australia for another shot at a Group 1 so who knows, but last years efforts over 1600m show he can win this type of race over 2000m.
The Date:3 March 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Derby (3YO)
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: I have not really seen a clear cut derby favourite emerge as yet, there also does not appear to be a 3YO who is so talented that they will win this despite not looking like a stayer. A horse like Duckworth Lewis might appeal, but while he is listed on the NZ Racing site he is not on the TAB. Rock'n'Pop, Planet Rock, Artistic, and Shanghai Bund all appeal, but Knight's Tour's win in the Great Northern Guineas is my pick until I get to see the Avondale Guineas and reassess the situation.
The Date:7 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 3200m
The Race: Auckland Cup
My Prediction: Scarlett Lady
The Reasoning: Whilst I enjoyed the New Zealand Cup, it is hard to say if it is a guide to anything you might expect to see here. I think the usual suspects are going to be interesting in this race. I think Scarlett Lady had the class to go well in Melbourne last spring and should be a force in this race.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Diamond Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Who is the top 2YO in the country? who will be the top 2YO in March? Who will win this race? those questions probably have three different answers. I have to go with the class 2YO at the moment, but this could be won by a horse who has not even had a start yet.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: New Zealand Stakes
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: I think he will be back, he is still the best and should win this type of race.
The Date:17 March 2012
The Location:Wellington
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Oaks (3YOF)
My Prediction: Silent Achiever
The Reasoning: I have been on this horse as an Oaks winner since I saw her run at Twlight Races, I was impressed by the flying finish again on Boxing day at Group 2 level, she then won over 2000m at that level (albeit on a rain effected track with a limited field). She is the favourite at this stage and deservedly so.
The Date:31 March 2012
The Location:Manawatu
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Manawatu Sires' Produce Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Have to keep with who looks good at this stage even though this may change by the end of March.
The Date:7 April 2012
The Location: Te Aroha
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (F&M)
My Prediction: Twlight Savings
The Reasoning: Is it just me or does something strange tend to happen in this race most years? We have such a good crop of fillies and mares around at the moment that this should be a very interesting race with a tight betting market.
The Date:14 April 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Easter Handicap
My Prediction: Vincent Street
The Reasoning: I figure a 3YO is winning an Open Group 1 this year, while it is most likely that would win a WFA race the fact that this is a handicap is not unprecedented (Time Keeper last year). It will probably be a horse who goes well on the track, a horse who can handle a wet track (we had a wet Christmas, we are probably getting a wet Easter; sorry to be pessimistic) and one who is not weighted out of it by performances in other Group 1's. Therefore Vincent Street who is currently rated 72 is my pick.
The Date:Late August
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Makfi Challenge Stakes
My Prediction: Antonio Lombardo
The Reasoning: I can't find a Group 1 this season this horse will win, I think 1400m is a strong distance for him and he was so good in the Spring last year.
The Date:September
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Windsor Park Plate
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: If Jimmy is headed for another Cox Plate attempt I can see him defending his crown in this race on his home track first.
The Date: October
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 2040m
The Race: Spring Classic
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: It is too easy to pick Jimmy Choux again, although I feel he will win this I am going to pretend he does not start this race and pick another horse.
I am going to skip making selections for the two Guineas races and the Levin Classic, who knows what the crop of 3YO's will look like by next spring?
The Date: December
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Captain Cook Stakes
My Prediction: Banchee
The Reasoning: I figure a lot of the top milers will be rested after an Aussie spring campaign. This might come down to a horse who has not won a Group One, maybe a horse who is improving to reach this level of contention, maybe even a horse who might not be proven over 1600m yet. Even looking through the list of noms for the Thorndon Mile this year it is hard to know which milers might fit this mold in 11 months time.
The Date:Boxing Day 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Zabeel Classic
My Prediction: Veyron
The Reasoning:Clearly loves Ellerslie, he held up well in this race last year despite it been his first attempt over the distance, another year of possibly taking on more 2000m races and I think he is ready to take this.
We are just days away from what is shaping up to be a exciting Telegraph Handicap, so I thought I would pick a winner... I decided I would also try to pick a winner for each of the remaining Group 1 races in New Zealand this season, and the ones next season until the end of 2012 (assuming the World is still here). Obviously, I don't know who will be nominated, the conditions, or what the field may look like, but it should be fun anyway (particularly fun to look back on this and see just how far away I am).
The Date:1 January 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Railway Stakes
My Prediction: Atomic Force
The Reasoning: Ok, maybe I have cheated on that one since it happened 19 days ago.
The Date:21 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Telegraph Handicap
My Prediction: Durham Town
The Reasoning: While I think this is the kind of race which could produce an unexpected winner. I like a few of the horses in this race, but I think the weight relief from the Railway will help. Guiseppina and The Hombre may struggle from their draws. Atomic Force is currently the deserved favourite. To go a bit longer in the odds I like the look of Eight Shillings if he makes the field (and I suspect he will).
The Date:28 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Thorndon Mile Handicap
My Prediction: Dating
The Reasoning: Tough race, Platinum Princess has certainly proved herself, Hold it Harvey seems to like Wellington, and I like the looks of Smoulder and Banchee also, but this looks like the kind of race which could suit Dating and she should compare well with the other contenders in terms of weight.
The Date: 11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Darci Brahma International Stakes
My Prediction: Shez Sensational
The Reasoning: Who is currently the best middle distance WFA horse in the country? After the impressive Zabeel Classic win Shez Sensational certainly has to be considered. Will Jimmy Choux be back from his lay off for this, hard to say.
The Date:11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: International Sprint
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: The defending champion. While he might be out-weighted in the Thorndon Mile and the Telegraph Handicap, WFA conditions should suit Mufhasa here. Obviously, I have no knowledge of when Jimmy Choux might return, but if he does come back for an Autumn campaign this race might be a logical starting point to build up and maybe attack the NZ stakes on Diamond Day during Auckland Cup week.
The Date:25 February 2012
The Location: Otaki
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Otaki WFA
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: Maybe he will be looking to head over to Australia for another shot at a Group 1 so who knows, but last years efforts over 1600m show he can win this type of race over 2000m.
The Date:3 March 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Derby (3YO)
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: I have not really seen a clear cut derby favourite emerge as yet, there also does not appear to be a 3YO who is so talented that they will win this despite not looking like a stayer. A horse like Duckworth Lewis might appeal, but while he is listed on the NZ Racing site he is not on the TAB. Rock'n'Pop, Planet Rock, Artistic, and Shanghai Bund all appeal, but Knight's Tour's win in the Great Northern Guineas is my pick until I get to see the Avondale Guineas and reassess the situation.
The Date:7 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 3200m
The Race: Auckland Cup
My Prediction: Scarlett Lady
The Reasoning: Whilst I enjoyed the New Zealand Cup, it is hard to say if it is a guide to anything you might expect to see here. I think the usual suspects are going to be interesting in this race. I think Scarlett Lady had the class to go well in Melbourne last spring and should be a force in this race.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Diamond Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Who is the top 2YO in the country? who will be the top 2YO in March? Who will win this race? those questions probably have three different answers. I have to go with the class 2YO at the moment, but this could be won by a horse who has not even had a start yet.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: New Zealand Stakes
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: I think he will be back, he is still the best and should win this type of race.
The Date:17 March 2012
The Location:Wellington
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Oaks (3YOF)
My Prediction: Silent Achiever
The Reasoning: I have been on this horse as an Oaks winner since I saw her run at Twlight Races, I was impressed by the flying finish again on Boxing day at Group 2 level, she then won over 2000m at that level (albeit on a rain effected track with a limited field). She is the favourite at this stage and deservedly so.
The Date:31 March 2012
The Location:Manawatu
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Manawatu Sires' Produce Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Have to keep with who looks good at this stage even though this may change by the end of March.
The Date:7 April 2012
The Location: Te Aroha
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (F&M)
My Prediction: Twlight Savings
The Reasoning: Is it just me or does something strange tend to happen in this race most years? We have such a good crop of fillies and mares around at the moment that this should be a very interesting race with a tight betting market.
The Date:14 April 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Easter Handicap
My Prediction: Vincent Street
The Reasoning: I figure a 3YO is winning an Open Group 1 this year, while it is most likely that would win a WFA race the fact that this is a handicap is not unprecedented (Time Keeper last year). It will probably be a horse who goes well on the track, a horse who can handle a wet track (we had a wet Christmas, we are probably getting a wet Easter; sorry to be pessimistic) and one who is not weighted out of it by performances in other Group 1's. Therefore Vincent Street who is currently rated 72 is my pick.
The Date:Late August
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Makfi Challenge Stakes
My Prediction: Antonio Lombardo
The Reasoning: I can't find a Group 1 this season this horse will win, I think 1400m is a strong distance for him and he was so good in the Spring last year.
The Date:September
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Windsor Park Plate
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: If Jimmy is headed for another Cox Plate attempt I can see him defending his crown in this race on his home track first.
The Date: October
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 2040m
The Race: Spring Classic
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: It is too easy to pick Jimmy Choux again, although I feel he will win this I am going to pretend he does not start this race and pick another horse.
I am going to skip making selections for the two Guineas races and the Levin Classic, who knows what the crop of 3YO's will look like by next spring?
The Date: December
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Captain Cook Stakes
My Prediction: Banchee
The Reasoning: I figure a lot of the top milers will be rested after an Aussie spring campaign. This might come down to a horse who has not won a Group One, maybe a horse who is improving to reach this level of contention, maybe even a horse who might not be proven over 1600m yet. Even looking through the list of noms for the Thorndon Mile this year it is hard to know which milers might fit this mold in 11 months time.
The Date:Boxing Day 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Zabeel Classic
My Prediction: Veyron
The Reasoning:Clearly loves Ellerslie, he held up well in this race last year despite it been his first attempt over the distance, another year of possibly taking on more 2000m races and I think he is ready to take this.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)