It is raining hard outside, it is almost 11am on Thursday morning, I am in Auckland, the Levin Classic starts in around thirty hours, there is allegedly 557 kilometers between my location here and the racetrack in Levin, a quick check of the forecast shows that we should expect a lot of rain over the North Island of New Zealand today. The Levin track is currently rated a Dead 4. The TAB odd's are up, Antonio Lombardo is a hot favourite while Duckworth Lewis is paying in the $16 range.
A few weeks ago nominations for this race included the horses mentioned above as well as other hot 3YO's, Burgundy, Anabandana, Rock'n'Pop, and Planet Rock. Now the 2011 Levin Classic Group 1 is headlined by Antonio Lombardo, who I would have had on top even if this race included these other 3YO's. Currently this race includes only two of my top ten ranked three year old's (even if you include the honourable mentions).
After saying all of that the field for this race still looks very interesting and may include a number of other up-coming 3YO's who may not have had the opportunity to shine. It is hard to preview this with the conditions uncertain. I will assume that we are going to end up with a dead to slow track.
Last year this race was interesting, we know Jimmy Choux ran last, he had a health issue. The race was won by We Can Say It Now and we know she was a very good filly. The first four places were all fillies. The dividends were high, Blinding was paying $25 and $5 for the place, and Lady Kipling paying $62 and $13 for the place, Blinding ran 15th in the Auckland Breeders Stakes last weekend, and Lady Kipling has looked very good this year. There are only three fillies in the race this year, and a lot of the runners are paying in excess of $20.
(#1) Antonio Lombardo (6) - Will win this race, has won on up to heavy tracks, he is a Group 1 quality horse.
(#2) Duckworth Lewis (16) - Barrier 16, he should move in depending on the emergencies and scratchings, but may be stuck wide. Is this the worst thing? maybe not, if it is wet his chances go up in my opinion. Two weeks ago Planet Rock won the Guineas racing wide and finding better ground, that could be the key for Duckworth Lewis. The third in the Wellington Guineas was interesting because this horse actually cut the corner and raced in what may have been the wetter part of the track. This horse will not have a problem running wide or on wet ground. He has also won over 2000m, so even running wide on a wet track this horse should be fresh in the finish.Currently $16, great odds.
(#3) Brackenwood (4) - Second up as a three year old. Ran a second first up to the improving Shanghai Bund, but may not have had many favours in that race. He won twice as a 2YO and seems pretty consistent. He was good early as at 2YO. He may be in the first few here.
(#4) Estrato (15) - A horse I like a lot, however I had him ranked higher before the Hawkes Bay Guineas run. In this field he looks very well placed, the problem is going to be doing something useful from that draw. In Hawkes Bay it was the first time in his career he had drawn a double digit draw and he got caught wide, barrier fifteen is not going to suit.
(#5) Shanghai Bund (7) - Flashed home in the Guineas and with this field lacking other Group 1 winners he has come into favour with the bookmakers. He performed well in Australia as a 2YO and has looked good at age three. If the track is wet it will be something new, but that is the case for a lot of runners.
(#6) Randall (18) - Won two of four starts, however the outside barrier will hurt his chances to win. The win at Tauranga was good, he looked brave and seemed to fight well. Jason Collett is in form and generally one of the best, however it is hard to have winning.
(#7) San Rafael (10) - Start number four. This is to be a rise in class, but that is true for a lot of these runners. Hard to see him beating Antonio Lombardo.
(#8) Distil (9) - I liked him as a 2YO, he ran 4th in a Group 1. His two runs at age three have not been good dropping out and having to work hard from bad positions, I suspect the Wellington run was a lot to do with the wet conditions, so on better ground he is definitely worth considering in this field.
(#9) Danny Ricardo (11) - Should handle the track conditions, recently broke maidens. Just not sure he has been doing enough to recommend.
(#10) Platinum Playboy (14) - Finished 5.4 lengths behind Randall last start and is drawn badly here.
(#11) Release Me (8) - Looks to be lining up well here. Hayden Tinsley will be going for a second Group 1 this season, he was caught wide at Tauranga and nearly beat Randall, he looks consistent and should be suited to 1600m. The fact he has performed best on good tracks may concern people but $21 at this stage looks like good value for a good place chance.
(#12) Viking Ace (3) - I do like his chances. The draw should suit and 1600m should not be a worry.
(#13) Urunga (12) - Consistent, but yet to win one.
(#14) Whoshe (2) - I think this horse is toying with me. I keep going back and forth and have essentially ruled her out as an elite 3YO. This this race comes along and I look at the good draw, the strong record on less than good tracks, the fact that she has at least been consistent despite probably under-performing her odds, I look at the quality of a field and the class she has been racing against. She is currently paying $26, which makes her equal 10th favourite. She is much better than that. Why can't she run 2nd of 3rd in this?
(#15) Lego (1) - Should be on the speed, assuming Antonio Lombardo goes to the lead she should get a good trip, maybe can handle the rain, worth considering.
(#16) Smoke'N'Mirrors (17) - Despite the consistency, in this field, from that draw she is hard to take.
The result
It is hard to see Antonio Lombardo not winning this, he is just the better horse. I think Whoshe will be there and Duckworth Lewis will go well enough from the wide draw to be in place contention. Shanghai Bund has to be considered, and despite the draw Estrato is simply better than a lot of these runners.
I have gone for experience in my picks, I like Antonio Lombardo to win, but would really not be surprised by any order from that point on.
First - Antonio Lombardo
Second - Whoshe
Third - Shanghai Bund
Forth - Duckworth Lewis
Hard to leave out - Release Me, Estrato, Brackenwood
Rough but value - Lego, Viking Ace.
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