Three weeks ago when Mufhasa was running in Tauranga his past three race day starts had included victories in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap, the Group 1 Makfi Challenge Stakes, and a second in the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate. The field he was facing had combined to win $2.6m, just a touch under what Mufhasa has accumulated in his esteemed career to date. I was sure he was going to win.
Last Friday Antonio Lombardo was facing a capacity Levin Classic field, however with the absence of other 3YO Group 1 winners, the field featured just two other horses who had won or placed above Listed level (Duckworth Lewis, and Distil), it featured only another two horses who had won at listed level, and a further one who had placed at that level. Andonio Lombardo came into the race having won his last three, in his career he has won three at group level and a further two listed races, he beat Anabandana last start and was second in a Group 1 as a two year old, the next best placed Group 1 runner in this race was Distil with a 4th ($36 is what he paid people!). I was sure he was going to win.
The point of this post is not to point out all of the times when I was sure something was going to happen and it didn't, there is not enough space on the Internet for that. I was not alone in my certainty of Mufhasa and Antonio Lombardo victories, they paid $1.40 and $1.70 in those races. Obviously favourites don't always win, if they did, what would be the point, every winner would pay $1. There were certainly signs that Distil was a contender in that race last week, as well as several other runners who all featured in the top six or so, and there were signs that Antonio Lombardo might not be the dominant horse in that race (although I think he was unlucky and had to expend effort early on, he featured heavily in the stewards report). The point of this post is to look at some likely favourites and figure out why you should not be so sure.
This was supposed to be a post focusing on all of the races in New Zealand which contained favourites which people appeared to be sure of, however as of the writing of this post there is only fixed odds out for six of the twenty odd races in New Zealand tomorrow, the only favourite at this point people appear to be sure of is Mufhasa, here are the reasons he will not win.
As little as six months ago I would not have considered Mufhasa a 1600m horse at this level, however now he has won and placed at Group 1 level in the last couple of months. His overall record includes four wins of twelve starts at that distance. He was beaten last start, but that was due to over racing early and wearing himself out a bit and even then he was just beaten late. He had 35 days off between runs before that start at Tauranga, he will be much better for that and ready to win here.
For Mufhasa to lose this he will either have to perform badly or be beaten by a better horse, who might be that better horse?
Hold it Harvey won impressively course and distance in March, he was good in the Coupland Mile and the Windsor Park plate. He chased Mufhasa home in Hastings but he has had two starts since then, he definitely improves with a bit of racing, from barrier four he will get a chance to follow Mufhasa and compete late.
Booming had a great year last year, and although he would typically like a bit more distance he did win a Group 1 over this distance last year. He looked good in Australia which was tougher than this, he is a good horse and should be more than comfortable in this company.
Vosne Romanee, was amazing a couple of years ago but his form has not really returned. A triple group one winner is always a threat, but will need some improvement.
Bragato, you have to respect the win on the course and distance recently, but the conditions should be better tomorrow than that day. He is well acquainted with the track and has had a good year, but this seems like a big step up.
Vonusti has only won once at 1600m, and only won once at Wellington, however that was at Group 1 level. That group one victory was his last victory, but he has put forward a lot of great close performances since then. Some of his top performances have been over 1600m, and he came home very strongly in a top field at Ellerslie last start. He might be the best chance to upset the favourite.
Platiunm Princess is the first of the mares in this race, she is in form winning the Coupland's mile. The WFA conditions should cause some problems, the highest weight she has carried to victory is 56.5kg but you still have to consider the form.
Dating is a real chance if you go off the Hawera victory. The barrier inside Mufhasa should be useful and give Jonathan Riddell a chance to position the horse to show another flying finish.
Banchee is a 1600m Group 1 winner as a 3YO. She is class and definitely has not received all the favours in her last two starts.
Elusive Tracy is a nice mare who has looked pretty good recently. This is a big step up for her, but she seems to go well on the course, hard to take at Group 1 level.
Of the horses I am mentioned I can genuinely see a few of them beating Mufhasa if things go their way, Banchee and Dating are real chances, Vonusti and Hold it Harvey have the form and experience to challenge, and Vosne Romanee is a wild card. Booming is back in New Zealand where he was so good last year. Platinum Princess might step up to WFA conditions and maybe Bragato and Elusive Tracy will surprise. However I still think Mufhasa looks the one to beat... I am sure of it.
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