Do you believe a penny saved is a penny earned? if so I have a betting system I think will profit from the first Ellerslie Racecourse Twlight meeting of the 2011/12 Summer. It is simple, it breaks down as follows.
Step 1 - Set a budget? is it $50, $100, $1,000 or several thousand dollars.
Step 2 - Take a look at the form guide for Race 1
Step 3 - Hold your pen, and put a cross through every horse.
Step 4 - Repeat steps two and three for races two through six.
Step 5 - Return money to bank account.
I have had a look at the form for today and it is scary, the only way I will profit is if I receive a significant error in my favour when change is returned to me at the bar.
Actually it is perfect for this type of meeting. The races are about going out and having fun, throwing around a little money, and in the case of these Twlight races simply enjoying the atmosphere. Maybe you are with friends, maybe on a Christmas party, it will be an excellent night, one I am looking forward to, but not one I am expecting to make money on.
The crowd in attendance is most likely to be the typical "Easy Bet" crowd, one without a lot of racing aficionados, just people looking to have a thrill, pick their favourtie colour or a horse with a cool name. Looking at the fields the Easy Bet Strategy (if you can call it that) may not be the worst, I can definitely see some upsets or long shots coming in, and it may be a way to hit a big winner. For more serious punters looking at a $200k pick six, good luck! you will have to spread your money wisely because it will be a difficult one to hit.
However in saying that I can't go to the races and not have a bet. I have had a look at the form, and these are my top selections for each of the six races.
Race 1 - The Edge Maiden - 2200m
#7 - Grande Bellezza - Simply looks the most consistent and you have to assume that she is a winning chance here. It sure looks like the she has finished strong in races over a bit of distance where she may not have got a lot of luck. She was well supported last start and should be again today.
#1 - Back Burner - Interesting runner who has showed best form going right handed. Built up to 2200m this prep and will be better for having a run at that distance about two weeks ago.
#9 - Gaybrianne - Has been pretty consistent and been close in most starts. Definitely comfortable over more distance and will probably travel well from barrier three.
#10 - Erlicheer - Experienced, with a good Ellerslie performances in the past, looks to have stepped up well over 1600m and 2000m recently so 2200m should be well suited.
Race 2 - Cardinal Logistics Rating 65 - 1200m
#7 - Open 'N' Shut - Everything we know about his first start suggests win number two can happen here.
#8 - Midnight Senorita - In contention here, has been consistent with form on the course and over the distance. Placed 2nd up last prep and is 2nd up here today. Won well last start when well supported.
#4 - She's Prestigious - She raced in better class than this as a 3yo. Best record is over this distance and at Ellerslie as well has having a win 2nd up.
#3 - Tsar Bomba - Great name. Won last start after a promotion. However has been well supported and in the mix in all races.
As a bit of an outsider I can make a case for #9 - Monarch - hasn't been the best recently, but has placed 9 times in her 27 race career, all of those have been at Ellerslie and over 1200m, this makes her an interesting place chance.
Race 3 - Network Visuals Maiden for 3YO Fillies.
#2 - Diamonds are Blue - A consistent and well liked horse judging from support in previous races. Certainly appears that she is ready for 1400m or beyond, so another crack at that distance should be beneficial.
#7 - Bella Kaiane - Drawn barrier two, very well supported in first two runs, has the talent but needs the luck.
#3 - Mapmaker - Second in only start to date. Whilst that Second was distant to the winner the finish was strong and a bit more distance will be a help. She had some work to do and was featured in the Stewards report, so with a clean run she can figure today.
#1 - Caprisious - Drawn wide, but last start was at Group 1 Level. She looked good prior to that so you know she has talent. Really have to include this in anything more exotic.
I have also looked at #9 - Light the Way as an outsider in this race. I thought she raced in good company as a 2YO, she has had one start at age three over 1400m and should be benefited returning to that distance today, she also knows the course very well.
Race 4 - Dunstan Feeds Championship Mile
#11 - Chicharita - Artistic, Holy Moly, Anabandana, Antonio Lombardo are probably four of the top 3YO's in the country, they were the only four to beat Chicharita at Group 3 level two starts back. Last start she was beaten by Randall and Release another two good ones. This is easier.
#2 - Feel One - Once again I hate the barrier draw. However 1600m at Ellerslie gives a lot of time for a horse to settle in a good position before the bend and it looks like Feel One could get a soft lead, if that happens he can feature.
#3 - Gunsmoke - A consistent horse who has been slowly brought back after a long lay off. He has shown enough and been well enough supported to see as a contender here.
#4 - Te Karo - Barrier thirteen, but this looks slightly easier than some recent races. Seems to like Ellerslie and worth considering on that basis.
Probably the hardest race to pick of the day, I think I highlighted about seven who I thought could feature. Althought I had #8 - Chaparrone rated seventh of those seven I still like it as an outsider. She was 9th when 1st up, but last prep improved on that each start until winning its fifth start. Ran against some better horses last prep and seemed to go best over the 1600m. When selecting an outsider it is good to have a Jockey you can rely on and Sam Spratt is definitely one who can help this horses chances particularly when coming from an outsider barrier.
Race 5 - Barfoot and Thompson Twlight Cup - 1600m
#9 - Runningdownadream - This consistent 5YO mare loves Ellerslie, she also likes it wet, so keep an eye on the sky's, if the track is downgraded at all she will be harder to beat. She should be near the front and able to give them a good contest.
#1 - No Fear - Almost the opposite of Runningdownadream, you have to like No Fear more on a good surface, he seems to awlays put forward his best efforts at Ellerslie. He will claim 4kgs and this is significantly easier company than some he faced recently and last year. Wins have come 4th and 5th up, so expect a good show 3rd up here.
#5 - Nacho Bella - I like this horse and think she should be more than comfortable in this company. The distance should suit and she will look to improve on consecutive seconds.
#2 - Crown of Thorns - The weight scares me a bit, even after the 1kg claim. However he has been consistent in better company a drop in class should give an advantage, the record at Ellerslie and over the distance as not been great but he has won over the distance and on the course.
#15 - Mr Pedantic - Not sure if it is in this race, if it is replace Crown of Thorns with Mr Pedantic and maybe have a value place bet on Crown of Thorns.
Race 6 - Auckland Co-Op Taxi's Maiden Mile
#11 - Centre Point - This filly has been consistent over her last couple of starts which have both come over this distance (including one at Ellerslie).
#2 - Showmethemoney - According to the Stewards report he was slow away last start and never got into it, so if you are happy to forgive that and hope for a better performance then you might get some odds today. He has been well supported and looks like he will go better over 1600m, this is slightly easier too.
#9 - First Response - Going back up to 1600m will suit this mare as that is where the best performances have come. Gets better with a bit of racing and 3rd up should be when you start to see some improvement. The draw should help.
#3 - Even Better - Placed in a trial here, then came home well at big odds for 3rd over 1400m from the back of the pack. 1600m could be a good distance.
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