Karaka Millions Preview

It is Group 1 Thorndon Mile weekend and I choose to preview a listed race? well in this case that race happens to be the Karaka Million and it is currently New Zealand's richest race.

How do you preview a race when the most experienced horse will be having their 6th start? how do you bet on a race when the TAB currently has seven horses between $5 and $9? I am not sure, but I am about to find out. The advantage is that via the NZ Racing site it is possible to quickly watch film on every runner to help your decision.

This is an excellent event, it is great having it on a Sunday night of a long weekend in Auckland. You have a nice punchy six race quality card with two feature races for Karaka Graduates. It is also an excellent way for Karaka to preview their upcoming sales which begin next Wednesday.

It will come as no surprise to anyone who is reading this, who also happens to live with me, that I enjoy the Karaka sales (that is a short list, but still a valid point is coming), Trackside has excellent coverage of the sales, it is always fun to sift through the catalogue and guess prices and to literally watch people spend millions of dollars in a matter of minutes, the coverage lets you feel involved. I must congratulate Karaka on their use of technology, they have an excellent website and the iPad available catalogue is great (and must be even a better tool for those actually attending), I have ranted at great length about how use of technology could increase the fan experience, so I have to praise when someone is making good use of it.

(1) Warhorse: Has the horror draw, he will most likely end up in the outside barrier (unless there is two scratchings), however I would have felt the same about Guiseppina's draw heading into last weekend. At Ellerslie over 1200m a winner has come from barrier 14 only 5% of the time, if he ends up in barrier 13 that percentage increases to 10% (which feels like a statistical quirk from a lowish sample size, I am not sure how often either barrier is used over that distance). Warhorse is a winner of one of his three starts, the win did come in Auckland at Group 3 level, he won impressively despite sitting three wide throughout, he really showed an explosive next gear over the last 150m. Prior to that in Hamilton he got away slowly, looked to have something happen at about 500m out, and then got pushed wide on the turn, but again he seemed to come home well over the last 200m. I can imagine for him to win this he will have to come from wide and most likely the back half of the field, it will be tough, but with that big finish he is capable.

(2) Silver City: The Stephen McKee trained Silver City has been freshened since his 8th in the Wentwood Grange Stakes (indecently he was the one pushing Warhorse wide on the corner), he did win his first two starts. I think we are more likely to see the horse we saw winning in October at Trentham, but that track was very wet that day, while there is not a lot of evidence to claim that maybe he just handled the conditions better than most, it may well prove to be the case. 

(3) Ockham's Razor: Ironically in a race with as little exposed form as this we may be applying Ockham's Razor to make our decision, unfortunately that logic will count against this horse, just due to how little we know about it. You have to be weary of any horse who is brought over from Australia for this race, but potentially Sell in May is the one you should be more weary of given what we know.

(4) Green Wings: Winner of his last two, including a course and distance win two weeks ago, in that performance he also beat three of his competitors in this race. All four of those competitors in that race possibly have excuses as to why it was not their best performance, but Green Wings and Freedom both  have more positives to take away. Green wings looked far more comfortable winning two starts back, again beating another competitor he will face in this race. He will most likely push forward from barrier 11, he has got out of the barriers well in starts to-date so I would not expect him to have any troubles getting to the lead.

(5) Freedom: If you look past the poor start when beaten course and distance you will see a strong finish. Prior to this our second of three McKee runners beat two other horses nominated for this race at Ellerslie, in that race he got away better but didn't look too comfortable following runners, he accelerated into a gap at about the 300m and then really took off into a gap with about 100m to go. More experience should help, but in this size field from barrier 10 (or 9 depending on scratchings), he will find it hard to avoid traffic, it almost seems like he would be more comfortable racing wide uncovered, he seems to have a motor which will see him hitting the line well, but it will depend on where he is and how much energy he has spent to get into that position.

(6) Taoist Master: The first of our John Sargent horses in this race (there is still a possibility there might be five), I just get the impression that this is a race John Sargent badly wants to win (I am sure all trainers want that), there have just been a few things I have read over the past 18 months or so that would indicate he is always searching for runners who can compete in this and win it; and I am sure it will be no different at the sales next week. He is having an outstanding season to date and he has some big chances here. As for this horse if you choose to take it you will have to forget about that last start performance, luckily if you look at the first start you will be impressed. Taoist Master really looked comfortable stretching out over the last couple of hundred meters and James McDonald really let the horse do most of the work. That horse looks like a winner, the one from two weeks ago does not.

(7) Mai Guru: Was narrowly beaten by Freedom in his first start. He has had another start for a win since. He actually looked good in both races and seemed like he had more experience than a 2YO with two starts. He carried 58kgs last start under handicap conditions, so should actually get relief with the 2YO set weights. Barrier two should suit, he will get out of the gate well and probably track Green Wings coming from wide out.

(8) Choice Bro: Was a winner here during the Christmas carnival, he was highly favoured then and showed class winning comfortably. His first start was probably a fair indication, he was shuffled back beyond midfield and worked home well, not explosively, but steadily accelerating and chasing home Irish Rebel who was simply too good. Barrier four should suit and he should be able to be handy enough following the leaders.

(9) Deakes: Was beaten at Group 2 level on the weekend by Hogwarts Express (who has been beaten by Green Wings), and Irish Rebel (who beat Choice Bro recently), those results point to other options in this race. However, when you look at the video and the stewards comments maybe he has an excuse, he looked to recover and come home well, but I am not sure there is enough to recommend him here. He looked better in his first two starts in smaller fields down south, but this is tough.

(10) Sell in May: Our first filly and second visitor from Aussie. She is a winner in Melbourne and looked good testing Auckland the other day. There seems to be good buzz around this horse and she is rightfully one of the favourites. She seems to have a big finish which should suit in her first attempt over 1200m.

(11) Silk Pins: This horse has beaten Warhorse and Travino, not too many in New Zealand can say that. It was a fighting run and I remember been impressed at the time. She went on to place at listed level (this time behind Travino), it was an impressive and patient performance where she was inside Travino for most of the race, he got the run early and she had to work a lot harder for it, but really came hard for them at the end. Her most recent start was a 6th at Group 3 level on New Year's day (the race won by Warhorse), she was back (possibly bumped) and searching for a run which never came. Barrier 14 (which will probably move in one by the race start) shouldn't be an issue, she will be off the pace and likely off the rail, which could benefit and allow for a clear run at the finish.

(12) Hogwarts Express: A real enigma; that seems counter-intuitive as we have more footage on this filly than any other in this race. Her form has been consistently solid, but she seems to have matched up against a few of the top 2YO's (and other competitors here) and come off second best. She looked good at Group 2 level on the weekend, and I think she is getting better. She actually reminds me a bit of Duckworth Lewis, a horse who raced solidly as a 2YO with limited success then came on as a 3YO. Following that trajectory remains to be seen, but I feel like she has been discounted too easily here, however when I look for reasons to pick her I struggle to find them.

(13) Marechal: Has won one from three starts, no one he beat that day has really gone on to do much since, two of the horses she beat went on to come 4th and 5th in the Wentwood Grange Stakes (beating runners in this race), but that is it. She fought well for the win that day. Her last start was a distant 4th to Warhorse and Irish Rebel, I think she would need an improvement on that to feature here.

(14) Dreamcoat: Another horse we know a bit about. You really need to forget the last start if you are trying to convince yourself to put your money on this horse, Trudy Thornton who rode her that day said that she didn't handle the track conditions (which was Dead), and there is probably merit to that as her only other race day failure was also on a dead track. In races to date she has been beaten by Silk Pins, Warhorse, Green Wings, Freedom, and Taoist Master. However she was able to beat rival Hogwarts Express on a good track. Her victory on the course was impressive, but again none of the horses she beat have gone on to blow us away since. Barrier 6 may actually be difficult for her, their is probably speed inside her and outside her, she looked good leading but may have to follow here, she will be handy but I find it hard to see her winning.

Now to make a selection, I have just basically made a case for all of the runners and this is a weird race; there is a lot at stake and there are inexperienced horses who can potentially hamper others, so it is very hard to make a selection.

Who have I ruled out? Warhorse (barrier has put me off), Silver City (this seems a bit tough), Freedom (too erratic to recommend), Deakes (put off by the last start), Hogwarts Express (can feature, but hard to see it winning), Marechal (this field seems to strong), Dreamcoat (on a good track it is possible, but again the field is maybe too strong).

First: Sell in May - I rate the Melbourne form coming into this.
Second: Green Wings - I think he will be our leader
Third: Silk Pins - Will be coming home strongly
Forth: Warhorse - Too good not to be involved
Fifth: Taoist Master - I would include this in multiples and hope to get a performance like its first start.