Sorry, I have been a little quiet recently. I have basically been away since Boxing Day races (which was an awesome day by the way), and my house was broken into prior to Christmas and all three TV's in the house were stolen (which makes it difficult to comment on racing you cannot see), the last thing I wrote was not even for this site, it was for The Punters Forum. I am now back and ready to look forward to another excellent year of racing in 2012.
We are just days away from what is shaping up to be a exciting Telegraph Handicap, so I thought I would pick a winner... I decided I would also try to pick a winner for each of the remaining Group 1 races in New Zealand this season, and the ones next season until the end of 2012 (assuming the World is still here). Obviously, I don't know who will be nominated, the conditions, or what the field may look like, but it should be fun anyway (particularly fun to look back on this and see just how far away I am).
The Date:1 January 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Railway Stakes
My Prediction: Atomic Force
The Reasoning: Ok, maybe I have cheated on that one since it happened 19 days ago.
The Date:21 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Telegraph Handicap
My Prediction: Durham Town
The Reasoning: While I think this is the kind of race which could produce an unexpected winner. I like a few of the horses in this race, but I think the weight relief from the Railway will help. Guiseppina and The Hombre may struggle from their draws. Atomic Force is currently the deserved favourite. To go a bit longer in the odds I like the look of Eight Shillings if he makes the field (and I suspect he will).
The Date:28 January 2012
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Thorndon Mile Handicap
My Prediction: Dating
The Reasoning: Tough race, Platinum Princess has certainly proved herself, Hold it Harvey seems to like Wellington, and I like the looks of Smoulder and Banchee also, but this looks like the kind of race which could suit Dating and she should compare well with the other contenders in terms of weight.
The Date: 11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Darci Brahma International Stakes
My Prediction: Shez Sensational
The Reasoning: Who is currently the best middle distance WFA horse in the country? After the impressive Zabeel Classic win Shez Sensational certainly has to be considered. Will Jimmy Choux be back from his lay off for this, hard to say.
The Date:11 February 2012
The Location: Te Rapa
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: International Sprint
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: The defending champion. While he might be out-weighted in the Thorndon Mile and the Telegraph Handicap, WFA conditions should suit Mufhasa here. Obviously, I have no knowledge of when Jimmy Choux might return, but if he does come back for an Autumn campaign this race might be a logical starting point to build up and maybe attack the NZ stakes on Diamond Day during Auckland Cup week.
The Date:25 February 2012
The Location: Otaki
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Otaki WFA
My Prediction: Mufhasa
The Reasoning: Maybe he will be looking to head over to Australia for another shot at a Group 1 so who knows, but last years efforts over 1600m show he can win this type of race over 2000m.
The Date:3 March 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Derby (3YO)
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: I have not really seen a clear cut derby favourite emerge as yet, there also does not appear to be a 3YO who is so talented that they will win this despite not looking like a stayer. A horse like Duckworth Lewis might appeal, but while he is listed on the NZ Racing site he is not on the TAB. Rock'n'Pop, Planet Rock, Artistic, and Shanghai Bund all appeal, but Knight's Tour's win in the Great Northern Guineas is my pick until I get to see the Avondale Guineas and reassess the situation.
The Date:7 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 3200m
The Race: Auckland Cup
My Prediction: Scarlett Lady
The Reasoning: Whilst I enjoyed the New Zealand Cup, it is hard to say if it is a guide to anything you might expect to see here. I think the usual suspects are going to be interesting in this race. I think Scarlett Lady had the class to go well in Melbourne last spring and should be a force in this race.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 1200m
The Race: Diamond Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Who is the top 2YO in the country? who will be the top 2YO in March? Who will win this race? those questions probably have three different answers. I have to go with the class 2YO at the moment, but this could be won by a horse who has not even had a start yet.
The Date:10 March 2012
The Location:Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: New Zealand Stakes
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: I think he will be back, he is still the best and should win this type of race.
The Date:17 March 2012
The Location:Wellington
The Distance: 2400m
The Race: New Zealand Oaks (3YOF)
My Prediction: Silent Achiever
The Reasoning: I have been on this horse as an Oaks winner since I saw her run at Twlight Races, I was impressed by the flying finish again on Boxing day at Group 2 level, she then won over 2000m at that level (albeit on a rain effected track with a limited field). She is the favourite at this stage and deservedly so.
The Date:31 March 2012
The Location:Manawatu
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Manawatu Sires' Produce Stakes (2YO)
My Prediction: Travino
The Reasoning: Have to keep with who looks good at this stage even though this may change by the end of March.
The Date:7 April 2012
The Location: Te Aroha
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: New Zealand Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes (F&M)
My Prediction: Twlight Savings
The Reasoning: Is it just me or does something strange tend to happen in this race most years? We have such a good crop of fillies and mares around at the moment that this should be a very interesting race with a tight betting market.
The Date:14 April 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Easter Handicap
My Prediction: Vincent Street
The Reasoning: I figure a 3YO is winning an Open Group 1 this year, while it is most likely that would win a WFA race the fact that this is a handicap is not unprecedented (Time Keeper last year). It will probably be a horse who goes well on the track, a horse who can handle a wet track (we had a wet Christmas, we are probably getting a wet Easter; sorry to be pessimistic) and one who is not weighted out of it by performances in other Group 1's. Therefore Vincent Street who is currently rated 72 is my pick.
The Date:Late August
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1400m
The Race: Makfi Challenge Stakes
My Prediction: Antonio Lombardo
The Reasoning: I can't find a Group 1 this season this horse will win, I think 1400m is a strong distance for him and he was so good in the Spring last year.
The Date:September
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Windsor Park Plate
My Prediction: Jimmy Choux
The Reasoning: If Jimmy is headed for another Cox Plate attempt I can see him defending his crown in this race on his home track first.
The Date: October
The Location: Hawkes Bay
The Distance: 2040m
The Race: Spring Classic
My Prediction: Knight's Tour
The Reasoning: It is too easy to pick Jimmy Choux again, although I feel he will win this I am going to pretend he does not start this race and pick another horse.
I am going to skip making selections for the two Guineas races and the Levin Classic, who knows what the crop of 3YO's will look like by next spring?
The Date: December
The Location: Wellington
The Distance: 1600m
The Race: Captain Cook Stakes
My Prediction: Banchee
The Reasoning: I figure a lot of the top milers will be rested after an Aussie spring campaign. This might come down to a horse who has not won a Group One, maybe a horse who is improving to reach this level of contention, maybe even a horse who might not be proven over 1600m yet. Even looking through the list of noms for the Thorndon Mile this year it is hard to know which milers might fit this mold in 11 months time.
The Date:Boxing Day 2012
The Location: Ellerslie
The Distance: 2000m
The Race: Zabeel Classic
My Prediction: Veyron
The Reasoning:Clearly loves Ellerslie, he held up well in this race last year despite it been his first attempt over the distance, another year of possibly taking on more 2000m races and I think he is ready to take this.
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