What is it about raining Thursdays or Fridays this year? It makes it very difficult to make any kind of predictions about what might happen with remaining uncertainty over the potential track conditions. This time of year we see the return of a lot of winter runners, as well as summer runners finishing their run so it does really make a difference.
On initial glance this is a very difficult week to pick six, but with $250,000 on the table it is probably worth a shot.
Leg 1 - Race 4 - Rating 75 1200m
Hard to not include
#1 - A Keepa
Reason to Include
The most experienced 1200m horse in the field. Very close last time for fourth, steps back in rating and will have to carry more weight. Is consistent and well drawn.
Reason to leave out
The weight will be a factor, and the record at Te Rapa is also suspect, however has not run there since July and August of 2010, so there has been some time, overall he does seem to perform slightly better going right handed.
#2 - Baldovino
Reason to Include
He goes well fresh winning his first three starts before stepping up to Group 1 level earlier this season. Any rain should help improve his performance. The step back in class should suit, and the Te Rapa record is sound. The weight should not concern.
Reason to Leave out
Was early this season a flash in the pan?
#6 - Tango Terrific
Reason to include
Back after over a month off, that is a state in which he has performed well in the past. His last start was at rating 85 over 1400m at Ellerslie, he finished 7th, but he fought on well and really only faded over the last 150m. Has won over the distance.
Reason to leave out
Back in class so will carry significant more weight, he has only ever carried 58kg once for 7th. Has not run left handed a lot throughout his career.
Consider Including
#8 Lucy in Disguise
Reason to include
Super consistent runner. Will go well with a bit of moisture around. 3rd up, has won after a few starts before so should be ready. Last start winner who looked good in that race. 1200 record is strong.
Reason to leave out
This is tougher than the last victory, he will also carry an extra 2kg. She seems to have shown a lot of improvement into this preparation, so it is interesting to see if that will continue. Drawn barrier 15, not the best starter so could have a bit of extra work to do in this company.
#12 - Street Party
Reason to include
Was unlucky stepping up last start, was racing up in class prior to this. Back to 1200m which is an ideal distance and is well weighted here.
Reason to leave out
Barrier 19 will make things tough, she was drawn 14 four starts back and it was not ideal, so she may struggle here. The rain may make things difficult.
#14 - Cap Eden Roc
Reason to include
The overall record stands out, good over the distance, and if the surface is dead she has performed well.
Reason to leave out
Has struggled stepping up in class, she might be well backed but struggle here.
#3 - Prince of Wales
Reasons to Include
Will have his first start since boxing day 2010, he always goes well fresh. A very consistent runner, only once out of the first four. Should go well over 1200m although will potentially be searching for more distance.
Reason to leave out
A question over the long lay out, I also question the amount of weight he might carry here. Draw may make things a bit tough.
#9 - Sateka
Reasons to include
A well weighted mare who has been in good form recently.
Reason to leave out
This looks a big step up, this race contains some tough competition.
Leg 2 - Race 5 - 3YO Group 3 - 1200m
Hard not to include
#2 - Burgundy
Reason to include
A lot has been said about the win in the Mr Tiz Trophy last start, 1200m is going to suit this very classy runner. Possible anchor who wont worry about the conditions and is drawn to get an ideal run. He could overpower them.
Reason not to include
Watch the last start of Ginner Hart again, while that is not a reason not to include, it is a reason he may not be the perfect Anchor. He has been well backed a lot of times and not always proved himself worthy of the hype.
#1 - Ginner Hart
Reason to include
Was close to flawless last week against a tough field of more experienced runners. Dropping back to 1200m has suited well, he will handle all conditions well.
Reason not to include
He will carry the same set weight here, that is 3.5kg more than last week. You have to go back to early starts as a 2YO and 3YO since he has carried that and looked good.
Consider Including
#9 - Holy Moly
Reason to include
One of the best non winning performances of the year was her 3rd here in October, that was to Antonio Lombardo and Anabandana, while beating Artistic, Chicarita and Caiprinha. That was a long time ago, but she is classy at best. She has shown some of that in her last two starts. It looks like another run over 1200m will suit.
Reason to leave out
She tailed off quickly after a good start to the season against tougher competition.
#5 Golden Globe
Reason to include
Has been super consistent in a limited number of starts but has displayed potential. He has been freshened since November and has won in that state before. Looks like a pure sprinter and will not mind any rain.
Reason to Leave out
This seems like a step up in class, he will face some accomplished runners this weekend. Drawn wide, but will push forward so may negate that.
#3 Precision King
Reason to include
As consistent as he has been he has looked really good over his last couple of starts. He has been great over 1200m and on left handed tracks. He will handle the ground well.
Reason to leave out
He has seemed to get some interference or maybe just not started well the last couple of times from similar draws, he might try to push forward, but it looks like there are a few speedy runners which could make this a challenging task.
#4 - Casting Stones
Reason to include
Has won last two starts, consistent before that, looks like 1200m is ideal.
Reason to leave out
Drawn wide, is taking a step up in class, was pretty handily beaten he took on some of the better 3YO's in December and this is tougher.
Leg 3 - Race 6 - Open Handicap - 1600m
Hard to Leave out
#2 Alegrio
Reason to include
He didn't disappoint stepping up to Group 1 level with a solid and close 8th. 1600m is his best distance and he does go well at Te Rapa with a couple of wins.
Reason to leave out
The start before the Easter Handicap was less impressive, he will carry an extra 2kg here because of the relative drop in quality. Consistent early this year and has tailed off a bit, however has previously won several races after a number of starts.
#7 - Sum Up
Reason to include
Two races of note, the 6th in the Easter Handicap was strong, and the second in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was also notable.
Reason to leave out
There is a case to be made that more distance would better suit, however in this company over 1600m I think he will go well. The wide draw may concern, he has been pretty lucky with draws recently.
Consider Including
#1 - Indikator
Reason to include
Wasn't terrible when 8th second up last time, however he has won 5 times 3rd or 4th up, so he should be ready for this. 1600m is a distance he has won on and he showed it with a good finish last time. He will suit any track conditions.
Reason to leave out
He is probably searching for a bit more distance, he has not won over less than 2000m for some time now.
#3 Atom Cat
Reason to include
9th behind Alegrio in the Easter, but there was a gap. He might have had and excuse, he did come for them late, in a smaller field he may have ran closer. He will like some give in the track and has won 3rd up a couple of times. I thought he might give some cheek last time, maybe this is the time to watch out.
Reason to leave out
It has been a while between drinks, he has not been great of late. It feels like he should be racing in this class, but he has not been winning.
#5 Worthing
Reason to include
I always like a runner who
performs of a track even when things are not going as well elsewhere.
He was in better form the last couple of Te Rapa runs before the failure
here this prep.
Reason to leave out
He has not been in the best form, you would be taking purely because of his preference for the track.
#15 Time Keeper
Reason to include
The run on Wednesday was very strong. Not sure if we can expect to see a run or not, but I suspect you may have to include if we do. Has won 3 in a row before, but each had a two week break.
Reason to leave out
This is a horse who gets better with running, but two in 4 days? and for a $40k Open race, what is the point? It will be interesting to see how Sir Slick 2.0 goes. By my count he has run 13 times with as little as a week between runs (5 weeks in a row at one point), he has only won 1 of those races.
Leg 4 - Race 7 - 3YO - 2000m (You are very happy if you are still alive right now)
Hard to Leave out
#3 Post D'France
Reason to include
Looks a great staying prospect as he has built to a strong win last start. This is slightly tougher, but he has always ran on well enough to indicate that 2000m+ is suitable.
Reason to leave out
Has not really been as consistent and this step up in class may be a concern.
#2 Red Shift
Reason to include
He has been freshened since decent performance in the Derby, back to 2000m and back in class, at a distance which would appear to suit against runners who are at his level. Now with Roger James who is having an outstanding run. One of those runners who always looks good before races, he is big and strong and should get better.
Reason to leave out
You could argue he is impossible to leave out. If you are going to leave him out possibly look to the 7th two starts back.
Consider including
#1 Dowager Queen
Reason to include
This consistent filly has been good without been outstanding since her return from Melbourne. She was freshened slightly before her last start and is now building up to more suitable distances. She will come for them and hit the line well, she will handle moisture in the track.
Reason to leave out
Leave out if you are not sure of the recent form. If you took away what she did in Melbourne she is probably hard to have here.
#7 Ryan John
Reason to include
Still a maiden, but probably improved for the 2000m start, that was actually at a higher grade, so he should be more suited to this. Pretty decent third on the track last start, locally trained.
Reason to leave out
Maiden runner, dead track may have concerned two starts back.
#9 Vittoria
Reason to include
Fourth in the Oaks in Victoria shows ability, she should improve with a couple of runs and more distance. The 9th last start was only 3 lengths back, not too bad.
Reason to leave out
Is a three length loss at rating 75 enough evidence that she will improve enough to win this, I am not so sure.
#6 Tiberius
Reason to include
Looks like an improving runner who will be suited to the rise in distance.
Reason to leave out
The rise in class might be the concern.
Leg 5 - Race 8 - F&M WFA Group 2 - 2000m (excitement building if you are still alive)
Hard to leave out
#1 Postmans Daughter
Reason to include
My pro Postmans Daughter bias will be exposed here, but I think she has been great all year. She proved it in the Easter, 1600m was short of ideal and she impressed for a very close second.2000m should be ideal. She has had two fourths at Open WFA level over this distance, both times beaten by the boys and Shez Sinsational/Scarlett Lady
Reason to leave out
While she was not far off at Te Aorah I thought she might be due for a break then she showed up in the Easter, but that was under a very light weight.
#3 Lady Kipling
Reason to include
Has beaten Postmans Daughter under these conditions. Not last time, but at Boxing day. Beat PD last start at equal weight over 1600m. 2000m is going to suit.Good record at Te Rapa.
Reason to leave out
Although capable, she has never won past 1600m.
Consider including
#16 Joy's Choice
Reason to include
3YO runners in WFA
conditions are certainly tempting. She has looked good this year and has
improved over more distance. 5th in the Oaks, and two good runs prior
to that over 2000 and 2100m. She also seems to like Te Rapa
Reason to leave out
Despite going close a few times she has not won at this type of level. This is tough against the older runners.
#2 Floria
Reasons to include
Handled WFA conditions well when 6th in the Group 1. This is similar but longer. The added distance shouldn't be a massive issue.
Reasons to leave out
The race is quite similar to other races which have not resulted in success.
#5 Villify
Reason to include
I like more in the rain, but she looks like the step up to 2000m may be suitable. She has won here and the draw will be ideal.
Reason to leave out
Still looks more suitable to handicap conditions a this stage.
#9 Mini Pearl
Reason to include
Probably would not have been this high on her before her last start, however that was a pretty good win over this distance against decent competition. Seemed to be building well towards that point and scored a good victory.
Reason to leave out
Seems to be best on good tracks, and this is a big step up from recent starts.
Leg 6 - Race 9 - Rating 75 - 2400m
Hard to leave out
#7 Manhattan Mam
Reason to include
On the strength of that last victory. Was pretty good in the Oaks and has carried on well. More distance should suit.
Reason to leave out
Yet to succeed left handed. Both wins have been on good tracks.
Consider including
#4 Gold Cape
Reason to include
Dropping back in class from a good 4th in a strong race over 2000m where she fought well. 2400m looks like a distance which will be suitable.
Reason to leave out
Yet to win over 2400m and will actually carry more weight than last start here.
#8 Bob Valdez
Reason to include
Strong winner here two
starts ago, looked like there was more to give. Has been pretty
consistent if you throw out the wet track results.
Reason to leave out
If the track is worse than dead or if it has been chopped up by this late
race (of course you will have already made this bet by then)
#3 Stingray
Reason to include
Consistent, beat Bob Valdez last time out. Has recently shown strong finishes, 2400m should suit.
Reason to leave out
Stepping up in grade, distance, and not really getting a lot of weight relief.
#5 Runaway Bride
Reason to include
Look at the odds she has paid this prep, even after winning 2 in a row she was still paying massive odds, she looks like one who is always over looked. 2400m should suit now.
Reason to leave out
Leave out if you don't believe this current form swing, she has been overlooked a lot recently.
How to play
It is a tough Pick 6 because there is no clear anchor, there are not even many legs where taking two would feel comfortable. Look at the last leg, what a mess, so I guess you have to consider weather you take a risk early and end up with five runners in the last leg, however there is no reason to have five runners when you are knocked out in the second leg.
Leg 1 - 1,2,6,8
Leg 2 - 1,2
Leg 3 - 2,7,1
Leg 4 - 2,3,7
Leg 5 - 1,3
Leg 6 - 7,4
That is 288 combinations, so maybe one to get together with some mates to try to get a percentage of it. If you want to go cheaper I would consider going only number 7 in the last as it is the anchor I am most comfortable with. I possibly would leave out number 7 in the fourth leg as well (or number 1 in the third), that would leave you with 96 combinations. I think we could get close to another jackpot for next week.
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