We approach the final Group 1 of the season with the same favourite as we approached the first Group 1 of the season. Veyron has had a great year, but if he was to carry the same weight as Jimmy Choux I don't think this would be a debate, Green Supreme was great a couple of weeks ago but is not yet at the class of these other two. The handicap conditions make this race very competitive and as you scroll down the list of nominees you see a lot of runners at their respective weight who can be competitive. The draw has made this race interesting, as had the threat of rain (I am going to try to avoid making a weather prediction this week, as most weeks I am wrong).
All things been equal Jimmy Choux wins this race. Critics will point to his first up record, but his last fresh start was a close second behind Mufhasa at Group 1 level, this fresh start may be slightly different because of his upcoming trip to Australia and this may be just a run to shake off the cobwebs and get him ready for those races. I don't think any ground will be an issue for Jimmy Choux, he has drawn 10, which is not a concern.
Veyron has had a great year, he will carry 2kg less than Jimmy Choux, he was a close second behind Scarlett Lady last start (who would have been considered by many on par with JC last spring before her injury). This was shaping up like a great race as Veyron also can handle all conditions, he has a fantastic record at Ellerslie, loves 1600m, goes very well after a bit of freshening. If the 2kg penalty was not enough to make you consider these two equal the barrier draw has really worked against Veyron and brings things back towards Jimmy Choux's favour.
Green Supreme is the other candidate with great potential. He won easily over 1400m last start and will take on the extra 200m here. He looked very good building up over ground before his 6th in the Wellington Cup. His 1600m and Auckland records and sound, and he has won twice on slow tracks. The handicap conditions will give him 55kg to carry which is only 500 grams more than he carried to victory last start. How good is he relative to Jimmy and Veyron is the big unknown. He has won carrying more at lower grades over the past couple of months, he has quickly risen through the grades and is suited to these Open handicap conditions, he is very well drawn to be a major factor.
There are two other runners backing up from last weeks Group 1, the handicap conditions should suit both Postman's Daughter and Fleur de Lune. Fleur de Lune was very close to a win last week, and has secured a good draw in this big field. Postman's Daughter will be .5kg better off this week in weight relative to FdL, who will carry 2.5kg less that the set weight from last week. Postman's Daughter was consistent before her 8th last week and might be ready for a break, Fleur de Lune seems to be coming on and should be well set for this despite the run last week. A little softness underfoot should not concern either runner, FdL goes better at Ellerslie. Both are contenders here, but Fleur de Lune is the better of the two, I am still not sure she will be able to better Green Supreme given the similar weights the two will carry.
Vonusti is the other Group 1 winner in the race (Unless Time Keeper makes it in), he is not really in that Group 1 form, and has not really been as consistent since Boxing Day. The distance he has run over has gone up and down over the last few months, he is pretty well weighted at 55.5kg and should be set for 1600m right now, he is always a danger at Ellerslie.
Others who stand out include Justanexcuse who seems to be getting back to close to his best form. He has been carrying significantly more since the Coupland's Mile which was a comparable weight. Most of his experience is going left but he did win well under a big weight last start. Might be one for odds if the rain comes. He meets Green Supreme relatively 1kg better off than when the two met last with Green Supreme winning by 1 length, is that enough to make this interesting?
It has been about 18 months since Atom Cat won his last race. However he might be worth considering if the conditions take a turn down. He enjoys Ellerslie, has a cosy barrier 4th draw, and has a decent 2nd up record. Actually most of Atom Cat's victories have come early in campaigns, so the resuming 4th possibly showed some promise as it relates to this race. He is carrying 53.5kg in this field which is a very significant light weight.
Of the Richard Collett trained runners I am leaning towards Riotous, he has a weight advantage over his stablemate Alegrio and is drawn better to really compete. Both have similar Ellerslie records, and I imagine that if it is wet the weight advantage should equalise them. I really enjoyed the win here last start, I would stay away if wet, but 52kg compares well to the second here during Auckland Cup week.
Steel Giant is a pretty good horse to only carry 52kg here. A course and distance win on a rain effected track was decent but the field was ripped up with scratchings that day. I wouldn't consider him on a wet track, the draw is a put off and at weights Justanexcuse is effectively dropping the same amount after beating him soundly last start.
Sum Up has been pretty good this season. 1600m is probably short of his best distance, but at weight on a wet track might give some value. This would be by far the biggest win of his career, but he has gone close in decent races and was not a disgrace at Group 1 level. He likes it right handed and recent performances at Ellerslie have shown merit.
Jetset Lad was another I liked, but was put off by the draw. 1600m should really suit, he can factor, but I cant see him winning.
When it comes down to making picks I really think it will depend on how fit Jimmy Choux is and how he will carry that big weight. I think he is better here than Veyron because of Veyron's draw, the next biggest threat is Green Supreme (considering I think he is more suited than Fleur de Lune), I am simply not sure how to compare these two runners. Overall record there is no comparison, at the same weight I would like Jimmy all day. In regard to Green Supreme he has still not really faced a challenge on this level, his next biggest challenge was the Wellington Cup recently, before this it was at 3rd at Group 1 level at age 3, although he has been winning fairly handily this prep, the field he will face on Saturday is very strong. He beat a number of runners here last start, but I still feel like despite the Jimmy Choux question marks I have to look his way in this race, he has been there before and is a proven commodity.
First - Jimmy Choux
Second - Green Supreme
Third - Veyron - He is in great form and loves Ellerslie
Fourth - Atom Cat - I like him more if the rain comes.
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