There is also big racing in Australia, the Underwood Stakes is interesting, I clearly remember So You Think winning this last year and confirming it would be the horse to beat all spring (and ever since). There is a great field this year featuring an entire field of horses aiming for races like the Cox Plate, Caulfield Cup, and Melbourne cup.
However, I am very keen to explore in more detail some of the contenders for the Windsor Park Plate in Hawkes Bay, this race is over 1600m, the track is currently a Dead 5 according to the TAB, and looking at the forecast for the next 2 days it looks like there could be a bit of rain Friday evening and Saturday late morning and afternoon, it looks light and hopefully wont severely effect the conditions.
The Contenders
Mufhasa - Looked great winning over 1400m in the seasons first Group 1. He broke clear about 200m from home and was never challenged again. He should be handy again from barrier 1, but can he win at this level over 1600m? He has won 3 from 9 over this distance, and finished over 1400m last start like he could have run another 200m, however he has not started over 1600 for around 18 months, this was a Group 1 and he won that start. He has looked so good in recent times over 1200m and 1400m that in this race against this field it will be tough not to consider him a contender for this.
Wall Street - Won this race last year. Has a great 1600m record (15:9:2). Goes great 2nd up, but seems to go great early in most campaigns. Seemed to fade over 1400m in the Makfi, he was not a threat in his last two starts in Australia last year. I don't want to write him off, because it could have been 1 bad race fresh up, but I think he needs to go close in this race to show that class again, he was so good this time last year and he won a Group 1 during Melbourne Cup week over this distance last year.
Jimmy Choux - Ran home well for 2nd. Is on his home track. 1600m is a highly suited distance. Doesn't mind more rain. Won 2 from 2 second up. Every way you look at his record he should win this race.
Thoughts on other contenders
Booming - Probably looking for more distance, but has won a Group 1 over this distance in the last 12 months. Chances will be badly hurt with more rain.
Hold it Harvey - Impressive record, but when you dig deeper most of those victories have come in the South Island. Most of the victories have come later in a campaign, between 6th and 13th up, so it is probably a horse who needs a bit more racing. Two impressive victories in the North Island last year put it in the class to compete and the 4-0 course record is deceptive because he always seems to feature in these races, not a terrible 7th in this last year and 4th in last years spring classic. Don't know what to make of the victories in the North last Autumn, I would not be surprised to see a 3rd or 4th, and equally not surprised to see an 11th or 12th.
Fritzy Boy - Some numbers, 3* / 1, 3, 5 / 9, 7, 11/ 3, 2, 6/ 5. Some more numbers 11:1:3. The first set of numbers are the case for Fritzy Boy, those are his results in Group races in Hawkes Bay (*this was a Group 2 race for 3YO's) they are pretty consistent, he always seems to be around the money. The second group of numbers is his record over 1600m which is why I would look at him for a place but he is hard to have winning. Currently paying $26 fixed odds at the TAB , that represents pretty good value, particulary if you look at his impressive record on wetter tracks, if only there was fixed odds place betting I would be interested in odds around $6 or $7.
Fleur de Lune - Never out of the top three in nine races which includes two Group 1 starts. She has looked like a 1600m horse in the past, but wore down a little over 1400m last start. She seems to finish every race strong. Hard to see her beating Jimmy Choux, after having him fly past her in the Makfi, but watching that race again when Mufhasa went past her with 200m to go it looked like she could get swamped and drop back through the field, she didn't, she kept fighting, finding a little more, challenging, I think that explains the impressive record. It looks like she may set the pace from barrier two again or at least be near the front. She also won 3rd and 4th up in February. Every time I look through the form guide for this race I stop at Fleur de Lune and look for reasons why it cannot win this race, and I it only comes down to the quality of the competition.
Some other thoughts
Six O'clock News - I have two questions for you; without looking it up, how much career prize money do you think Six O'clock News has won? and how many races has he won? the answers $361,968 and 6. Yes most owners would love to have those numbers, but don't you feel like he has won more? Sometimes this horse runs a race and looks so impressive, but most often these have not been the bigger races. I am not sure I know what this horse is, is it a stayer or more of a middle distance horse, it seems to go best on good ground, it is pretty consistent but will look good one week and be facing a race that on paper should be better the next and will not show up. I don't like it for this, but I could see it running home so well for 4th or 5th that it attracts a lot of attention for the Spring Classic and then lets everyone down with a disinterested 8th in that race.
Baldovino - I like attending big race days and seeing horses like this. 3 from 3, pretty cool name, nice colours, and no one really knows if it is really good yet. Here is how this goes, big race days attract a lot of people for an event and to have fun, they are not really into racing, they just want to have a bit of a punt drink and have fun, this is all great, it creates a fun atmosphere and is usually the only way I can get people to come to the races with me. At these events you get a lot of people trying to study form early, and then later betting based on record, name, colour, Jockey or something similar. By race 9 a lot of booze has gone down and a horse like Baldovino could attract a lot of on-course money particularly if Leith Innes kicks home a couple of winners early in the day (not out of the question from looking at his rides). $12 at the moment on fixed odds could see this paying $9 or $10 on the tote.
No Thoughts
Atom Cat - I love Hayden Tinsley in big races, I don't really think Atom Cat has a chance in this race, but still feel like $51 fixed odds is a bit higher than I would have expected.
St Germaine - Not sure what to expect from this horse. Seems overrated, not sure if it is up to this level of race, but also seems to be consistently in the front half of the field against any company.
My Picks
1st - Jimmy Choux
2nd - Wall Street
3rd - Fluer de Lune
4th - Mufhasa
Nothing too scientific really, basically just confirms that I agree basically with the TAB odds makers.
To me this race seems like a perfect one to just bank on Jimmy Choux and throw a bunch in your muiltiples for 2nd and 3rd, a trifecta may look like this.
1st - Jimmy Choux (9)
2nd - Wall Street, Fluer de Lune, Mufhasa, Fritzy Boy, Hold it Harvey (1,2,4,5,11)
3rd - 1,2,4,5,11, and Baldovino, Booming
Cost for $1 unit - $30 or take a % of that and if cover yourself for an outsider who could feature in this even field.
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