Hoping for rain

I am well aware that it is 2011 and not 1811 and if it rains there are plenty of things which can be done outside the house while remaining indoors, but a nice wet weekend would be an excellent excuse not to leave the couch this weekend. It is an amazing weekend for sport and racing, starting tonight at Moonee Valley with group and listed racing and an anticipated Sepoy vs More Joyous battle and the JRA cup featuring several Cup hopefuls, Saturday has impressive Group 1 Racing from Sydney, Jimmy Choux going for two straight in Hastings and important Rugby World Cup action, then Sunday back to Melbourne for the Turnbull Stakes as well as  the All Blacks and the NRL grand final featuring the New Zealand Warriors. A tip for the fellas out there, send flowers to your Wife and/or Girlfriend today because you might not be on speaking terms on Monday.

I wanted to touch on some of the key races I am looking forward to this weekend as well as attempt to put together my first New Zealand 3YO Power Rankings. I will start with Hawkes Bay racing tomorrow.

It is the third New Zealand Group 1 of the season the Do-we-have-a-sponsor-yet Spring Classic (brought to you by New Zealand Bloodstock Insurance apparently), formerly New Zealand's richest weight for age this years addition will be run over 2040m for a healthy $300k. When Jimmy Choux won the Windsor Park Plate many pundits believed it would be his last race in New Zealand before the Cox Plate and others believed it would be his last race in general before the Cox Plate, however word is he pulled up nicely after that and is ready for this. Although I would have loved to see him at Flemington this Sunday from a fans point of view I can understand the desire to give him another run at home over the Cox plate distance. Not that the connections would at all be concerned; as a fan who is trying to get a feel for how he compares to other Cox Plate hopefuls I am not sure what kind of message it sends if he is not able to win this race and it would surely effect his favouritism.

Jimmy Choux will start as a very short priced favourite, I am still a little concerned, I am not sure this race is that easy, and there are potentially other horses more naturally suited to this distance. I think the mile might be Jimmy's best distance and any wins at or above 2000m simply point to how talented and gutsy he really is. Do I seem him winning this? Well, yes, all evidence certainly suggests that he should, but It will be interesting to see how horses who won last season over 2000m in Group 1 or 2 races go in this race, Red Ruler, Hold it Harvey, and the biggest danger Booming. There are also a handful here who I like the look of, but not sure how well they will handle the WFA conditions, Back in Black and Seaflyte are not without their merits.
My Selections
1st - Jimmy Choux - simply has the talent, ran home strongly over 1600m, is going on to the Cox Plate so should win this.
2nd - Booming - This is his distance, looked good at the end of the Windsor Park Plate, could give Jimmy a tough race.
3rd - Hold it Harvey - from the draw he could find himself in a similar position that he did for the Windsor Park Plate he came home strongly behind two very good in form horses in that race.
4th - Dawn Ghost - tempting to take Red Ruler, but I didn't really like what I saw in Hawkes Bay last start and I don't really want to go chalk, so I think Dawn Ghost who is only carrying 1kg more from a pretty good fifth here last start could be interesting, particularly given all the horses who beat her that day are carrying significantly more today.

Other racing I am interested in from Hawkes Bay starting with the small but talented field in the first race, no doubt a few of these will have their sights set on the New Zealand Cup. Royal Queen in race 3 looks set to complete a Hawkes Bay hat trick, she won so well on the second day it is hard to see her losing this despite the outside barrier draw, she could lead again and we could see a similar performance. Race 5 features He's Remarkable who will be more than a warm favourite if he runs in this race, building towards the Coupland's Bakery Mile no doubt. The Group 3 Tradertracks Stakes could be his destination, however he will face some tough competition in that race, Twlight Savings would appear the one to beat after the way she ran home here last time.

I missed out a very interesting race, but that is because I wanted to focus on it a bit more closely and give you my 3YO Power Rankings.
There are obviously a lot of large races over the year aimed at 3YO's. The thing which makes a racehorse Power Rankings more challenging compared to a Rugby Would Cup Power Rankings is that not all horses are created equal, each has a different goal, there may be 3YO's who have not started a race yet who may be Powerful by Derby time, and there may be 3YO's who although targeting a 1600m race coming up may be more natural sprinters or longer distance horses. So this really comes down to buzz, feel, and general impression of their quality. There should be no suprises who is rated number 1.


Number10 - Savabil - I rate this horse and should normally have it higher, but I can't find any information about where he is and when we might see him again. However based on a strong 2YO campagin he needs to be on this list.

Number 9 - Whoshe - Forgive the last start, had she won she would have been higher on this list, but she looked quality before this.
Number 8 - Artistic - I have already written about her performance in the Bonecrusher Stakes, but it was still impressive.
Number 7 - Estrato - Winner of 3 of 8 including one listed race, raced well in top 2YO company, a winner well in his second start as a 3YO.

Number 6 - Kasumi -Winner of past two, both at listed level.
Number 5 - Testa Secret - Expected to run second to Anabandana last start, and did, can't penalise that, second to number 3 on this list before that, a series of solid performances in big races throughout her career.
Number 4 - Burgundy - Sure he has only one start, but there was a lot of hype about that, he is second favourite for the 2000 Guineas.
Number 3 - Dowager Queen - Won her last 3 in New Zealand, represented herself well in Australia in the winter.
Number 2 - Antonio Lombardo - Won 4 of 10 starts, won very strongly in his only start at age 3.
Number 1 - Anabandana - The top 2 Year Old from last season who already looks like she could be the top 3YO.

So, yes, I think Antonio Lombardo is going to win the Hawkes Bay Guineas, I think Ginner Hart and Prestigious Miss are interesting, they couldn't crack this list because I am not sure they have accomplished enough at a high enough level to be considered Powerful under my interpretation, the other horse from this list in this race is Estrato, he has a tough draw to overcome, but I was impressed how he kept fighting for victory last start, I imagine Peter McKay is pleased with these two 3YO's.

Australian Thoughts

Moonee Valley

The JRA Cup was set to feature Southern Speed which would have been interesting, but it still features an interesting group of horses, I like to see these races as horses start to stand out for the Spring. Innocent Lady is having an Australian start and should be interesting to watch.

The Mangikato Stakes is the interesting one to watch, Sepoy was a horse who made you say "wow!", and More Joyous is clearly class, I am just excited to watch, but think the lighter weighted Sepoy will come out on top.

Zabeelionaire is running in the 7th race. I don't have any thoughts, I just think it is an outstanding name.

Randwick

Both the Epsom and the Metropolitan handicaps should be excellent. I was hoping to see Kings Rose race again, but the field for the Epsom is still top notch. The interesting this about this race is the weight difference between Sincero with 57kgs, and Pinker Pinker carrying 52.5kg. The weights are very interesting, every horse numbered 5 or above is carrying 52.5kg's. The Metrop field has considerable class, this looks like a top class, I am not sure anyone knows what to expect, the winner will deserve this Group 1. Favourites in this race come from the top of the book and the lower weights, it should be very interesting.

I have already shared my thoughts on Dowager Queen, she may be a highly ranked 3YO, but I am not sure she is quite at the class to take out this Group 1 race. If she does she probably goes to the top spot of the next power rankings and really proves her class.

Flemington

I always like the Bart Cummings, I think it is a good build up to the Melbourne Cup and even though on the face of it the main contenders are not present I think a win here could really jump someone up the rankings. Harris Tweed will be weighed down with a massive 60kg. However with Showcause carrying 54kg it is an excellent chance to put his foot forward for the Melbourne Cup, he won the Avondale cup at this weight and with good 3200m form I think he would like to go well in this.

Keep the Peace is back. She has a horrible draw to overcome, and is probably not quite at her best, however she has placed in Group races in Melbourne in the past and I am definitely a fan. Smoulder is another horse I always gravitate to when she runs. I thought she was very unlucky in the Avondale Guineas and possibly could have gone on to do something in the Auckland Derby until she was scratched, I think we would look at her chances very differently had that occurred and is one that could prove her merit in Australia.

The Turnbull Stakes is a good example of what is great about Victorian racing in the spring. We start with nominations and an idea of who will run in the Cox Plate and the big cups, as the spring goes on we get more information about who is in form, who looks good, and who could surprise. This is another one of the races that was taken out by So You Think last year. This is a very strong feild and will reveal a lot more, I have shared my thoughts about some of these runners in the past. This is an excellent field, I imagine that December Draw will be favoured, but wont have it easy when you look at the likes of Southern Speed for whom this may be to far; Glass Harmonium will be liked by many, as will Rekindled Interest; if you like December Draw it is hard not to take a second look at At First Sight; there were a couple of horses who finished off the Underwood greatly in Playing God and Precedence; Linton is probably more suited to this distance than his earlier races this spring; and I have not even mentioned Efficient yet, he will be better for that first start and won this race 2 years (and 2 starts) ago. To pick one I would have to go for Playing God, this draw is much better, and he was unlucky in the running of the Underwood, he will carry 1.5kg less and an extra 200m would be suitable.

Those are my thoughts and what I am looking forward to on this long 'wet' weekend, enjoy the racing!