Searching for Value

As the Spring puzzle on both sides of the Tasman becomes clearer and horses are withdrawn from contention we start to get markets which are fairly representative of final fields for the big upcoming races. Over the past weekend favourites shone, other genuine contenders represented themselves fairly well, and markets tended to tighten around the favorite, particularly the Cox Plate and Caulfield Cup markets. From going over the options there is still some value to be found, today I would like to look at some of the better value which might be on offer at the New Zealand TAB. Obviously I don't know the plans for any of the runners other than what they are nominated for so there is a chance that what I see as value really represents that they may be targeting other races and may be withdrawn or might not reach the level of acceptance for a particular race.

New Zealand


Southys New Zealand 2000 Guineas (5th November)

There should always be some value in a field of 3YO's, particularly this early in the season where many are relying on reputations as a 2YO or limited race day experience. No surprise to see that Anabandana is the favourite in this market ($5), this appears to be held artificially high depending on how you feel about Burgundy's ($7) chances in this race. The well bred Burgundy is set to have his second start at Taupo this Thursday in a Rating 70 over 1400m. Assuming he will start in the 2000 Guineas, $7 is value you might not get if he wins at Taupo. If you like Anabandana this will likely fluctuate depending on the outcome of the same race, potentially going up if Burgundy wins his second start.

Quibbling about favourites is not exactly what I am here to do, on race day (assuming both start) you can expect that $5 and $7 will probably represent better value than what you would get on the tote, particularly given the absence of Antonio Lombardo. What I had hoped to do was to target some of the higher paying runners who might offer some value.

Vincent Street ($41) - when you compare this to Dollario ($31) who he beat two starts back. The Hawkes Bay run was not bad in a good field, where the top three really stood out, he ran on well in each of these past two starts and it looks as if 1600m might be a good distance.

Kasumi ($18) - Still a bit unknown in my opinion. The good win in the Canterbury Belle Stakes was improved when Planet Rock came out to win on the weekend in the Guineas trial, yet you will get Planet Rock at $14 right now. Rock and Pop weaved his way through the from near the back to second on the weekend, would have only needed ten more meters to beat Planet Rock and he is still offering $14. All three represent good value.

Prestigious Miss ($26) - Was beaten by almost two lengths by Antonio Lombardo on the weekend in Hastings, as the Pins Colt was eased home , but it was still an eye catching run. Ginner Hart ($10) was a narrow third and also finished off strongly, but this is excellent value at present.

Holy Moly ($31) - This Roger James trained Filly seems to finish strongly, while she may have benefited from some track bias last start you cant help but feel that the 1600m will suit her. Whoshe ($41) has drifted in this market, and rightly so after the past two runs, but it was an impressive effort for Holy Moly in Auckland.

Coupland's Bakeries Mile - 9th November

He's Remarkable ($4) and Twlight Savings ($5) both looked good on the weekend, not sure what they might carry on the day, but think they both might do well in this type of field under Handicap conditions.

Hold it Harvey ($16) - Looks like at this stage it is likely to be the top weight, but given recent WFA placings that should not be an issue. He was 3rd in this last year, and is probably in better form this time around.

Banchee ($14) - Group 1 Winner as a 2YO, followed that up with a good 3YO year. Yet to get back to the races as a 4YO but has trialed twice, seems to need a few races to get going, but $14 seems a good price.

New Zealand Bloodstock 1000 Guineas - 12 November


Artistic ($8) certainly threw a spanner in the works of this race with her win in Auckland a couple of weeks ago. Anabandana ($3) is the deserving favourite at this point and it could be hard to see anything beating her, but this is about value. I still like Prestigious Miss, but $12 is less value than the 2000 Guineas and seems about right. Kasumi is at $10 and Planet Rock is at $8 for this, of the three I still prefer Prestigious Miss. Holy Moly ($18) I have talked about in the past, but has excellent value here. 

Testa Secret ($21) - She was a distant second to Anabandana, and second wont pay off $21 win odds, but that is value and if that is what we are looking for then it is much better value than Kasumi or Planet Rock at this point.

River Nymph ($61) - Leading and then fading to 4th at Auckland in the Soliloquy  goes against a lot of what we saw on the day, but if she is going to make an appearance $61 would be great odds to get given it has not been far away as a 3YO.

Dowager Queen ($12) - Great value for a Australian Group 1 Placed runner, but she may not be back for this race I suspect.

I might just hold off the New Zealand Cup right now, there is a lot of value in the market, but I suspect this is because it is hard to pin down a final field with several runners having plans in Australia.

Caulfield Cup - 15 October

I think this will be a very interesting race and I plan on writing about it at length next week. The Odd's for this could adjust with the Caulfield Stakes this weekend, but it looks like December Draw will be the short priced favourite.

Alcopop ($21) - Always seems to be nominated in these big races at this time of the year. He is definitely more suited to handicap conditions, however his last start was in a top field over 1600m under WFA conditions, he flew home for second beating the likes of Linton and Whobegotyou. He is nominated in the Caulfield Stakes this weekend in a field including Whobegotyou, Playing God, Lion Tamer, Sincero and Descarado. It looks like the weights will be relatively similar in the Caulfield Cup, so why isn't $21 good value this far out from the race?

Southern Speed ($26) - When second at the Underwood over 1800m it looked like more distance might be too much, however the longer (2000m) Turnbull showed that she might have a bit more to offer coming home strongly for 4th.

Hawk Island ($26) - The Verminator ($31) will be penalised 2kg for this race following the Metrop win on the weekend. Hawk Island (I am not sure about the penalty) did well from a tricky barrier draw to come second, that distance form is impressive coming into a race like this.

Niwot ($51) - Don't know much about the horse, but $51 seems a bit over priced for a stayer who will not carry a lot and ran second in the Bart Cummings. Still not in the field at present 29th in the order of entry, but that should be close enough to get a start.

Cox Plate - 22 October 

I am super excited about this race, Jimmy Choux is currently a $4 favourite, but depending on the makeup of the final field this will be interesting. The other favourites include Helmet ($8), Lion Tamer, Whobegotyou ($9)  and Smart Missile ($10). I always like 3YO's in WFA conditions, it is a big test, but they have a big weight advantage, and what we have seen from Helmet and Smart Missile they deserve to be considered for this. Whobegotyou is pretty good value at $9, I don't see why he would not start this race, and he was the favourite a few weeks ago, a good showing in Caulfield on the weekend may reduce this price, so worth a good look now. Lion Tamer is no longer in the field at the NZ TAB for the Caulfield cup, so one might assume this is his target prior to the Melbourne Cup, he was leaving them towards the finish of the Underwood so the WFA conditions will suit him too.

Kings Rose ($21) - Has now won twice in Melbourne and is proven over 2000m. She looked good in both of those starts and if this is her target $21 is good value.

Glass Harmonium ($18) - The Turnbull was a two horse race towards the finish, December Draw finished on top and is favourite in the Caulfield cup, Glass Harmonium is consistent and has the ability to run over 2000m, the 4th int he Underwood included a pretty good finish.

Melbourne Cup - 1st November

Still a lot to choose from this far out from the Cup, so there should be some good value if you can predict the likely starters. With the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate and other large stakes races still to come these odds should change a lot, but if you expect a bold showing from a Melbourne Cup nominee in an upcoming race now might be the best time to get value.

Lion Tamer is the favourite ($9), this may be a New Zealand thing, he is a Derby winner, and also has shown his form winning the Underwood. The Caulfield Stakes this weekend will tell us more, but one would think the two miles shouldn't be an issue.

Americain ($13) - I don't think we will get to see him in the Caulfield Cup however for the defending champ not to be favoured at this stage it will give some pretty good value.

Glass Harmonium ($41) - For the reasons stated above, he has won up to 2200m, but placed over longer, 54kg seems pretty fair.

Niwot ($41) - Will only carry 51kg, has won over 3200m which is probably why $41 is a shorter price than the $51 for the Caulfield cup. 45th in the order of entry at present.

Showcause ($81) - I don't really think he has a legitimate chance to win this race. He is 50th in the Order of Entry. However, $81 is fair for a light weight, genuine stayer, with a win and a place over two miles and now a placing in a Australian black type race.

The Verminator ($41) - Even after the 2kg penalty, 52kg's is all this horse will carry. 36th on the Order of Entry is still 1 spot above December Draw (which is moot if the Caulfield Cup favourite comes through in that race). That 2400m win on the weekend in Sydney was impressive enough to warrant consideration over more distance.

Bart Cummings - At this stage he still has nominated Precedence ($21) and Illo ($31), both look like they will be in the Cup. I was impressed with Precedence until the Turnbull where she proved that maybe she is not quite up to that level of competition, however Illo is interesting particularity when you consider recent form of European runners in this race. I have never laid eyes on this horse, so I cannot provide any in depth analysis other than from what I can read, but he seems a stayer who is used to carrying significantly more weight than he will this year, and over the years it appears Bart Cummings has had some success in this Race.

These races are all still a long way away and subject to significant changes as horses perform (or don't) or are otherwise eliminated, so even if you like some of the shorter priced horses who are almost certain to start you could get a much better price now than on Race day. I am not usually a punter who takes fixed odds this far out, however what I do like about it is that with even as little as a fiver on a horse like Glass Harmonium is that your bet lives through every start between now and November first, a bad race and your value decreases and maybe connections reconsider which path to take this spring, a good race and he could move towards favouritism, not only does your value increase but you can look like a smart bastard down the pub with your mates on cup day. Either way it is fun and can be exciting without needing to specifically bet on any other races.