Spring Notes - 15 September

Things are starting to get pretty serious, so once again I am here to share with you the notes I made while watching some of the bigger races in New Zealand and Australia over the weekend. As always prices at per the NZ TAB

Ruakaka

2YO's
With every runner having their first race day start there was only a couple of trials to rely on for punters. 2YO's really ramp up in the New Year, so hard to say how meaningful a race like this could be, but it may shed some light on the early season listed races for the 2YO age group.

All seemed to travel pretty well, the winner Doubtless really walloped them pulling away to win comfortably. Cant see too many excuses for the rest of them, the next three all finished in quick succession, Almansa (4th) attacking slightly earlier than the others and probably having to do a bit of extra work.

3YO's
Westbruy Stud Challenge Stakes
Well you can all call me crazy. I thought this was a strong field heading into the race, and expect it to be a reasonably strong indication of form moving forward.
Sacred Falls was dominant, had a fairly easy trip, took a bit to wind up once he saw space, but really looked great with a comfortable win.
Southern Lord showed us a solid finish, he struck on next to the eventual winner in the straight, but Sacred falls was just a bit too powerful as Southern Lord dropped away. He probably had to work a bit harder during the race and possibly is closer to Sacred Falls than this race indicated.
Travino looked to struggle for a run, he did find some space and closed on Southern Lord.
King Zeus made ground well, but again was possibly suck in some traffic as Charlie Farley went back through the field, and then again behind Travino.
D'Cash Man finished 4th, he did a lot of work leading and fourth was a strong result.
Elysium really struggled for space, she was still probably 2nd last with 150m to go, she then really came home well into 6th. She was the only filly in the race and certainly held her own.
Silverdale probably does have a bit of an excuse, was last on the turn and had some space on the rail to make a run, but had to make an adjustment to get around Charlie Farley, he accelerated again, but slipped to 7th. He may offer value to someone next start.

1000 Guineas
Elysium - $12

2000 Guineas
D'Cash Man $51
Elysium $31
King Zeus $26
Sacred Falls $7
Silverdale $61
Southern Lord $41
Travino $31

Spring Championship Stakes
King Zeus $61


It is a long way out and a lot can change, but certainly some interesting odds on offer there.
 
Antonio Lombardo was a group 1 contender heading into his 3YO season, I think he showed that he should remain as a contender this season. He had a fairly solid trip, and actually got a challenge as he wound up and eased away from them. Simple really.  

Marton
Metric Mile
No Excuse Maggie was probably caught a little wide early on and had to work. She never really settled into a comfortable position to get into the race.
Amberio had such a nice journey around the track, she showed very good fight, conditions suited and she was only carrying 53kg, but possibly can keep up this solid form as the ratings rise.
Flemington is obviously seeking more distance and looked to pull up over the last 100m or so.
As good as Dubai Belle looked I think it might be hard to see her doing it again in handicap conditions, she wont get that much weight relief and the conditions really suited her well. She has been consistently good recently and seen her rating go from 72 up to 95, but possibly might be one to keep watching on wet tracks.
I thought Zennista looked pretty good for 5th, and Khemosabi held on well for 4th, and Art Beat arrived strongly for 6th.

Spring Classic
Zennista $31 - More distance should suit, WFA is not a concern
Flemington $31
Superturf $101 - Kept fighting for third and looked good but would be hard to take at WFA. 

New Zealand Cup
Beau Dane - $41
Flemington $12

Melbourne
Race 1 - 3YO Hcp - Very impressed by Philippi he really wound up to win. Second placed Carringbush Jack seemed to wind up and extend late. Forget seemed inferior to the first two, but still finished strongly and Adjuster set a good pace and just ran out of steam.

Race 2 - 3YOF - Saturn Rock is one we are familiar with with New Zealand, she trailed at the back of the field but looked comfortable. She had to work hard for her run but finally found space at about 150m and came hard to finish third.
Love for Ransom came from further back than Saturn rock probably 2 lengths behind Saturn Rock on the turn and probably extended the lead about a length in the final 50m. Setlla Lante worked hard around the bend and found some space. Mama's Choice was solid and probably lifted again very late. There was a solid finish by Malasun to finish 5th.

A lot of the 3YO's are 1000 Guineas and Caulfield Guineas nominated


Race 3 - Adapt Australia Handicap- Precedence back to winning form and under a big weight. He had to do a bit of work when he attacked early, Michael Rodd went for the whip around the bend. He really wound up and scored going away from them. Spacecraft led and put in a pretty solid run, he kept finding. New Zealand St Ledger champion Guns and Five looked good for 1600m, really wound up and showing his best form in Aussie so far. Ebony Rock finished fifth, but looked to be craving more ground with a strong finish, 1700m is the longest he has gone so far, but may improve over more distance.

Caulfield Cup
Precedence $61
Guns and Five $101

Melbourne Cup
Precedence $51
Guns at Five $101

Race 4 - Japan Trophy - Saw Tanby carrying a big weight, worked home pretty well, but just couldn't really do enough with a 4kg difference, not the worst effort.

Tanby
Melbourne Cup $81
Caulfield Cup $26
The Metropolitan $18

Buxted
The Metropolitan $18

Melbourne Cup $101

Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes
Happy Trails - fought really hard, he actually looked gone and then just seemed to find more.
Green Moon - had a pretty cosy run, he came hard as the two leaders pulled away, almost got there. Looks set to meet Happy Trails 1.5kg worse off currently in the Caulfield Cup, but that will likely change depending on acceptances.
Rekindled Interest - came from about mid field and finished hard into 3rd, a length and a half back, but should get more distance. Cox plate might be tough.
Linton - Looked rejuvenated, wasn't doing much on the corner then followed Rekindled Interest well.
Sneak a Peak - was coming home over the top of other runners.
Ethiopia - Eye catching run for 7th. Will get another kg off over the longer Cox Plate distance.


Current Odds
Ethiopia - Cox Plate $41 - Melbourne Cup $26
Green Moon - Cox Plate $10 - Caulfield Cup $13 - Melbourne Cup - $13 Metropolitan $10
Happy Trails - Cox Plate $21 - Happy Trails $41
Linton- Cox Plate Cox Plate $26 - Caulfield Cup $26 - Melbourne Cup -$31
Rekindled Interest - Cox Plate $12 - Epsom Handicap $16
Sneak a Peak - Cox Plate $81 - Caulfield Cup $41 Melbourne Cup $61

Top Cut Stocks Stakes
Chicharita - Improved in her second Melbourne Start, will continue to improve over more distance. She settled well, but drifted rare and seemed slow to react when the speed was raised. She finished very well for 7th.
Oasis Bloom showed a very strong finish to win.
I thought Dame Claire found another gear late, too late, she was 8th, but looked pretty good.
Spirit Song was narrowly beaten and Oasis Bloom pulled away, but Spirit Song really pushed hard down the inside, possibly unlucky.
Avienus finished really well, but was just out finished by Chateau Margaux.

Current Odds
Avienus - Caulfield Cup $201
Chateau Margaux - Epsom $101 Caulfield Cup $51
Chicharita - The Metripolitian - $81 Caulfield Cup $101 Melbourne Cup $201
Dame Claire  - Caulfield Cup $151 Melbourne Cup $301


Sydney - Just a couple of relevant Sydney notes

More Joyous was so good. She looked very calm and relaxed prior to the race, settled in Second and pulled away for the easy win. Likely not to race the Epsom ($10). This Cox Plate is shaping up like an awesome race ($6.50)

Golden Rose
The whole point of these notes is that once runners start having several starts you can build up a bit of history and begin to form opinions. Two weeks ago I showed you odds for Epaulette without commenting on his performance, he looks to have a bight immediate future.
Epaulette and Albrecht both looked very good, they were both trailing the field and came from last very quickly to draw away from the rest for victory. The next two home Ashokan and Ninth Legion both looked as strong as each other but certainly weren't getting any closer to wining.

Cox Plate
Epaulette $41
Ninth Legion $201

Spring Championship Stakes
Ninth Legion $8

Kingstown Town Stakes
The first two Stout Hearted and Crafty Irna travelled well, Stout Hearted caught Strawberry Boy and just comfortably drew away. Crafty Irna fought hard to make up a lot of ground, but probably stopped gaining with about 50m to go. Strawberry Boy was not too bad, he just ran out of steam. Praecido and Ironstein both made good ground from deep, but stopped getting closer. The Verminator possibly struggled to get the best run in the straight and Maules Creek ran out of steam over the 2000m.

Crafty Irna - The Metropolitan - $18
Ironstein - Caulfield Cup $201 Melbourne Cup $101
Maules Creek - The Metropolitan $31
Praecido - The Metropolitan $61
The Verminator - The Metropolitan $26 Caulfield Cup $101 Melbourne Cup $101
Strawberry Boy - Epsom $16 - The Metropolitan $14 (Status uncertain for both Sydney races) Caulfield Cup $61 Melbourne Cup $151
Stout Hearted - The Metropolitan $12 Caulfield Cup $31 Melbourne Cup $51