It is springtime, you wouldn't know it if you looked out the window, but trust me it is. Spring racing is underway, and with big races ahead it is important to look back and reflect on what we saw on the weekend.
Ocean Park
Seems like the logical place to start. The best thing about the stunning performance on Saturday is that he probably had excuses as to why it was not his best performance, he should improve from this point as well. At Hastings on the weekend most winners were coming from the front part of the field and not a lot were making up ground from the back, while OP didn't drop back as far as he has in past runners from his handy draw, he made ground to win with a stunning turn of foot. He will be better over more distance, he will be better on good ground. It was a great ride from Lisa Allpress and he didn't get all the favours in the straight. He will improve.
Current Odds
Cox Plate $14; Caulfield Cup $16
Mufhasa
Not sure what to make from his performance, he came into a very strong favourite before the start. Khemosabi challenged him and he faded over the last 100m or so. I did notice that Sam Spratt dropped her whip at some point in the straight, it is hard to make out on the replay on the NZ Racing site. It is impossible to know if it made a difference, but I cannot imagine it helped. I am sure we are not done with Mufhasa in Group 1's and make sure to keep him safe over 1600m in the Windsor Park Plate.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5
Xanadu
Another eye catching finish and another who should improve with more distance and from that run. She is a big strong 4YO mare who almost certainly must have Australian aspirations. She was another who came from deep to perform against the way most runners were performing on the day. She has already had strong form over 1600m and it would not surprise to see her win over 2000m, she is very capable of winning the Winsor Park Plate and/or Spring Classic.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $5; Spring Classic $5
Justanexcuse
So close to the upset on the weekend, a great ride and good tactics almost got him there. 1600m has been a tough distance for him since October last year, with most attempts against Group 1 level competition. It was a good performance, but it would be surprising to see him go two better in the Windsor.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $21
Guiseppina
Another encouraging performance. She came at them late to finish fifth. Her best results have all been between 1200-1400m but she is capable at 1600m. Are the connections looking at another trip to Australia this spring? A good performance in the Windsor may be needed if we are to consider her better than the 15th in last years Myer Classic.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $7
Time Keeper
Wins generally have come after 10 starts, he out performed his expectations but it would surprise for him to show up like that again in two weeks.
Current Odds
Windsor Park Plate $41: Spring Classic $41
Green Supreme
Had a fairly sweet trip for a runner who was 3 wide, the cover from Baby Guinness was important. You are probably going to like him more over 1600m and even more over 2000m, so the fast finish was important, a good track may have seen him closer. There is a lot to like moving forward and he may even offer some value in the Windsor as Xanadu, Mufhasa, and Guiseppina attract attention.
Current Odds
Windsor $7; Spring Classic $5
Fleur de Lune
Probably didn't live up to expectations, but possibly didn't get the smooth trip you might have expected from that draw. It looked like she was blocked a couple of times in the straight just as she was trying to make her run, hard to know how much it hurt her performance, but it did get a mention in the Stewards report. I am not sure she is better suited to 1600m, but she is certainly capable.
Windsor $15; Classic $31
He's Remarkable
He has now had 3 straight performances to forget, but the last two have been on dead tracks, and Saturday's was upgraded from Slow not long before the race. 1600m is where he will be at his best, so he is worthy of another look. With a couple of trips to Aussie under his belt it would not be unexpected to see a return, but I cannot imagine the Cox Plate as a realistic location based off that performance.
Windsor $8; Classic $10; Cox Plate $101
3YO's
I certainly liked what I saw from Kate over 1200m in the first from the bay. It looks like she has improved from age 2 and won a tough race. Dorian Grey came home well into second which was worth noting, It will be interesting to see these two again. In Tauranga Kate's stablemate Perfect Start made a perfect start to her racing career winning while making up a lot of ground on the straight.
Civics Rock/Villify
Also at Tauranga Civics Rock was very impressive finishing off strongly to dominate a small field with some talent. Villify will need to take a lot of improvement from that run to feature in the Windsor, 1600m is certainly more suitable and he did finish reasonably strongly, still $13 seems a little short.
Windsor $13 (Villify)
Back In Black
A strong win over 1600m, he seems to go well in Hastings at this time of year, 2000m should suit, but he was fairly inconsistent last year. Still at $41 in the Spring classic he is certainly not the worst on offer, I imagine he will have a run on the Second day, so he is one to watch.
Spring Classic $41
No Excuse Maggie/Smoulder/Platinum Passion/Intransigent
Not a whole lot to write home about from this Group 1 nominated bunch. Intransigent had to do too much work. No Excuse Maggie seemed a bit keen, but got a good trip. Platinum Passion had a sweet trip and ran on a bit. Smoulder ran home well. We probably wanted to see a bit more from this bunch of runners if they are going to go on to have Group 1 success. The eye-catching performance was from Amberio who has been quietly successful over the past 12 months plus, she is one to look out for next start.
Current Odds
Windsor
No Excuse Maggie $41
Smoulder $61
Spring Classic
Intransigent $101
Platinum Passion $101
Two more winners who were very good on the day were Papilo and The Knight. No idea where they may be heading, but it is worth having a look when you see them.
Quick Aussie Notes
How long will Pierro remain undefeated and how many Group 1's will he win in Melbourne this Spring? last seasons star 2YO continued his winning streak on route to the Caulfield Guineas and possibly the Cox Plate. He was challenged by Your Song who was impressive, and also beat All Too Hard who missed 3rd by a head bob and finished 5th. All Too Hard and Pierro no longer have a rivalry, Pierro is established as clearly superior.
Current Odds
Golden Rose
All Too Hard $7.50
Your Song $9 (might be unlikely to start I think I heard on Saturday, so do your research)
Epaulette $9
Ninth Legion $16
Cox Plate
All Too Hard $51
Pierro $6
Glencadam Gold won over 1800m against a range of cups possibles, but hard to read too much into it this far out. If you liked it there are still very good odds available for both big cups.
In Melbourne Sincero won the Memsie Stakes. I always look at this as the first race to consider as runners build to the big three. Sincero was very strong in Sydney last spring before heading to Melbourne and probably been a bit outclassed, this looks like a sign of improvement. This was a pretty Strong field which included Green Moon (2nd 2011 Caulfield Cup), Wall Street, Maluckyday (2010 2nd Melbourne Cup, Lexus winner), Heart of Dreams (Group 1 winner, second in Memsie last year), Rekindled Interest (3rd Mackinnon and Cox Plate last year), Niwot (Lexus winner 2011, Sydney Cup winner 2012), Sanagas (nothing to see here just yet), and Midas Touch (3rd Underwood, 3rd Makybe Diva last year). There is a lot to consider from that race.
Current Odds
Sincero - Cox Plate $16, Caulfield Cup $41
Green Moon - Cox Plate $21, Caulfield Cup $14, Melbourne Cup (pre noms) $18
Wall Street - Cox Plate $101, CC $81
Maluckyday - Cox Plate $81, CC $31, MC $26
Heart of Dreams - CP $101
Rekindled Interest - CP $12
Niwot - CP $151, CC $41, MC $41
Sanagas - CP $101, CC $51, MC $51
Midas Touch - CP $201, CC $61, MC $81
Probably not a lot to worry about just yet, but good to monitor.
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