The Aon Insurance Brokers Handicap in the Hawkes Bay will see a lot of top Sprinters make their return for the Spring and Summer., several of the returning runners including Ginner Hart, Aspinal, and Capone have solid first up records to consider. This race will also feature the return of notable 3YO's for their 4YO season, Ginner Hart, Pellegrini and Capital Diamond. You would think the drop back in distance should suit Fritzy Boy, but there are others at lower weights who look a big threat. The Hombre is Group 1 Placed over this distance, he opened as favorite, good conditions on his home track will make him hard to beat even at 58kgs. Baby Guinness looks a danger stepping back into Handicap conditions, she was consistently solid last season, and will enjoy the step back from Group 1 class.
1. Baby Guinness ($7.50)
2. Ginner Hart ($4.50)
3. The Hombre ($4.20)
4. Capital Diamond ($10)
The Gold Trial Stakes is always a good race, they have a top field assembled which should prove a good gauge on form of the filled heading to the guineas. Kate was a very impressive winner here on the first day, and the fact she is paying $8 at the moment is a good indication of the quality of this race. Roll out the Carpet, was relegated from a Group 1 victory as a 2YO, but her win in the Matamata Breeders stakes is still the most impressive victory of any runner in this race - in terms of stature of the race. Fix was very highly regarded on her return run, and this could be a good sign for the chances of A Touch of Ruby who was narrowly beaten in that race. Soriano was solid in both 2YO Group 1's, again she was not far off Fix first up this season. The well named Waterford (I see what you did there) was better than solid late in the 2YO season. Cassie May was consistent at age two, she is already having her third start at age three, this is tougher, but the step up to 1200m should be an assistance. Oasis Rose is back after a long lay off, she showed ability at age 2, but it is hard to know what to expect. Pure Elegance is the favourite, re-watching that start you can see why, I have not seen the trial, but It must have been very impressive. Coastal Express is another who is back for a second start since May. Meleka Bella is stepping up in grade as a recent winner.
1. Pure Elegance ($3.20)
2. Kate ($8)
3. Fix ($6)
4. Rollout the Carpet ($6.50)
The Stayer's come out in the PGG Wrightson Premier, they will be aiming for the third day and beyond to the New Zealand Cup. Carrick is the favourite at very short odds, it is hard to see why based on his last start, and he will carry a kg more, however more distance and better ground will help, but he is nearly impossible to have at $2.80. Back in Black was very impressive on the first day, 2000m will be more suited, but his form was very up and down last year and he will carry more here. Flemington will be looking for this extra distance, he will be also down in weight, but he probably needs a couple more starts before you see him as a winning chance. Herman Munster enjoys the track and distance and might be a bit of value in the wet, unfortunately it looks dry on Saturday. Pero looks a good chance on paper and on the recent victory, but he is probably slightly under good value here.
Rumour Has It Now has been very consistent and looks a very good light weight chance. Seaflyte has never done much in the Bay, but this feels like the kind of race he could win, the weight looks right, the distance should suit, the conditions will be favourable, and the competition is not the hardest, he was second in this race last year carrying 54kg on a good track paying $21 coming off a 10th first up... the winner of that race was Back'n'Black.
1. Seaflyte ($18)
2. Pero ($5)
3. Back'n'Black ($8)
4. Rumour Has It Now ($14)
A note on Carrick - Whenever I see odds of $2.80 after a race like Carrick had two weeks ago I start to suspect there is something that I don't know or don't see.It is possible that Carrick is simply the class in this race, certainly he will be more favoured in these conditions and over 2000m. Frankly, I thought he was a bit overrated last year, I was shocked with the 3rd in the Derby, he was generations behind Silent Achiever, and his two wins have been for $5k and $13k. I would not be shocked to be proved wrong here, but either way it is hard to bet on him at $2.80.
Onto the Group 1 Windsor Park Plate, all I have are questions. Can Mufhasa bounce back with the step up to 1600m? Will Justanexcuse regress to the norm? How will Green Supreme handle WFA conditions this time?
1. Xanadu ($4.50) - Too eye catching last start to turn down
2. Guiseppina ($6) - 200m more last time would have seen her close
3. Mufhasa ($4) - Still capable of winning this
4. Fleur de Lune ($16) - has the Group 1 1600m record
A note on Mufhasa - I think he can win this, I have not picked him to do so. I have picked him for third, but I would be surprised to see him finish third. If he is at his best and still has the ability to win these races, then he will win on Saturday. If he is not, probably there are several others who may finish ahead of him, and he may find himself 6th or 7th. I think he still has it, so I have included him, but this will be a good indication.
A note on Shez Sinsational and He's Remarkable - Conditions, Conditions, WFA?. Too Short, Too Short, Conditions, Luck?. Those are valid excuses for the recent performances of He's Remarkable first and Shez Sinsational second over their past 3/4 starts. I do have a question mark over He's Remarkable at WFA on Saturday, and I do have a question mark over Shez Sinsational at 1600m. Bad luck can strike at any time, but on Saturday I would expect to see better performances from both of these runners, at 1600m Shez Sinsational should be running on strongly and could grab a place. He's Remarkable has won carrying more than the 53kg he carried in the Railway, but I am starting to suspect he might be a tad overrated.
I still have no idea on this race, I like Xanadu, and could talk myself into any one of about 6 other runners for 2nd through 4th. My first draft had Xanadu, He's Remarkable, Fleur de Lune, and Mufhasa as the first four. I can also see Postman's Daughter, Villifye and Shez Sinsational going well.
Melbourne
Underwood Stakes
The winner here could become the Cox Plate second favourite. Ocean Park's first Aussie start, it will be very exciting. It is hard to go past Manighar after the last start second, he would have won if that race had gone another 5 meters and really killed them with another 200m. December Draw was possibly slightly unlucky in that race, but probably not unlucky enough to see him winning this, although 200m will help.I have never been a big fan of Sincero in Melbourne, that may change if he continues his recent form, I still see it as hard to have at $5 despite the quality of the Memsie field he beat. I would expect to see better things from the likes of Illo, Maluckyday, Mawingo, and Niwot. Drunken Sailor could figure fresh. There are also the imports to consider.
I think Manighar will take this out, but it should be a good race with a lot of runners to note. Ocean Park for Second, Southern Speed will be close and Mawingo to round out my first 4. However I think I still need to get by bearings on these runners.
The day in Melbourne is great with the 1000 Guineas Prelude. Single Minded and Zurella in the Naturalism, excited to see Zurella again. Then we get another look at Mosheen in the last.
Sydney
Its a Dundeel and other Derby hopeful 3YO's start off the day in Sydney. Three races later we will see more 3YO's on display in the Group2 Tea Rose.
I would expect a far better effort from Quintessential in the Group 1 George Main Stakes, but this is tougher. All Too Hard is carrying nothing, secret Admirer was very good in the last couple of races, and Danleigh was a very impressive winner last start. There are many others who can figure, it is sure to be a great race.
I thought Mourayan was very good last start, this is tough, but there looks to be some value at $7. Lots of other runners here who will be heading to the big spring races, this is one to watch.
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