The changing face of New Zealand Group One Races

For a time the Haunui Farm Group One Classic was looking like a rematch between Mufhasa, Veyron with Guiseppina in the mix. Now Mufhasa is off seeking his second Australian Group 1 of the season, in a race worth half a million Australian dollars. At some point it looked like he would be challenging the field for second with Black Caviar in that race, but it was a wise placement by Stephen McKee and Mufhasa's connections because realistically it was unlikely we would see Black Caviar run three weeks in a row, which seems a factor in the quality field the Futurity Stakes attracted.

The Otaki Group 1 really feels like the black sheep of New Zealand Group Ones, it just seems like a weird time and place amongst landscape of large race days and other Group 1's, aside from the $200,000 Group 1, the remaining races on this day are worth between $8,000 and $12,000. On first glance the field this attracted was maybe not what you might expect from a Group One either. This field contains four Group 1 winners, but it appears Vosne Romanee's best days have past, and Eagle Mountain is an unknown quantity.

When I looked again at this field in more detail this race may represent the changing face of New Zealand Group One races. Vosne Romanee, Vonsuti, Mufhasa, Hold It Harvey, Sir Slick, Six O'Clock News, Booming and two a lesser extent Wall Street (who is now racing in Australia), that is essentially the field for most Weight For Age Group 1 races over  for the past couple of years. Yes, Mufhasa is still dominant, Six O'Clock News has maybe recaptured form, Booming was twice a Group 1 winner last year is still looking a possible Auckland Cup winner. These horses are not completely past it, but the point is that we have all seen these races before.

Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational have each won two Group One races this season at age four. This race contains Four Year Old mares Postman's Daughter (already a Group 2 winner and Group 1 place getter), Lady Kipling (Group 1 placed at age three and 4th in a Group 1 age four). As well as Five Year Old Group 1 Winning mare Guiseppina. This race contains Veyron (now a two time Group 1 winner) only age six, as well as promising five year old The Hombre who has won in Australia and placed at Group 1 level in New Zealand this year. This race also contains 4YO's Sadist and Jaggard who have question marks around the WFA races, but no question have talent and the potential to be running at this level. There have also been other recent runners at age four or five stepping up to Group 1 level and showing potential.

The question I am asking, is this race an example of the future of Group 1 racing in New Zealand? (for the next couple of years at least) Well, it is hard to say, certainly you would think Jimmy Choux and Shez Sensational will continue to travel to Australia to compete. The problem with the mares like Guiseppina is that her connections will likely only continue to race her so long as they are winning more prize money than her progeny is likely to sell for, and they are not risking serious injury. Look at Barinka last year, solid career, finally got that Group 1, maybe didn't look like winning many more big races, suffered a bit of an injury, then retired. Another example is Veloce Bella who won the 2010 Darci Brahma International Stakes and by the time the 2011 version of that race came around she was in foal. I am sure there are countless other examples, but the landscape of these races can quickly change when it comes to the potential for a career after racing. That is why the nine horses I listed as an example of our recent Group 1 runners are all Geldings.

It is impossible to know how many more times the runners in the Haunui Farm Group 1 Classic will go on to compete against each other at this level because of some of the reasons listed above, but it is clear that I might have dismissed this field a bit too quickly because it does look like this field may contain some of the next generation of Group 1 competitors, and it is certainly evidence that we are in for an exciting group of emerging Group 1 contenders over the next couple of years.

How is this race going to play out? Here are some of my main talking points
I really think this race comes down to Eagle Mountain, certainly two years ago if he was running in this race he would have been considered favourite. At $7.50 on fixed odds it is clear that even bookmakers are not sure what to expect and they have kept him safe. The track is currently listed as dead and it is raining, weather effected tracks will suit him, he has a good 1600m record, but potentially more distance, like the New Zealand Stakes over 2000m might suit more. You almost have to include him because who knows what to expect.   
Veyron will be the favourite coming off a strong Group 1 win over 1400m, he has a solid 1600m record and will be very hard to beat here.
Hold It Harvey is still very consistent and always seems to finish between 2nd and 4th in these races. This distance is his favourite recording 7 of his 14 victories at 1600m. He was really good this time of year last year, he has 8 career victories between 8th and 13th up, making this race right in the time when he tends to hit peak form. This is tough but $8.50 looks good value.
The Hombre looks the up-and-comer, if we were to jump forward to this time next year and list all of the Group 1 winners during that time, would you be surprised to see his name? no, me either. He looks to have that potential.
Guiseppina will likely struggle if it continues to rain, but this looks such a good opportunity for her to get a second Group One. Forget the run at Waikato, but I do question the 1600m, her results have been strange over this distance, she might have been effected by class, weight, track conditions or field size but the 12th and 15th are uncharacteristic, we have seen her run out 1400m races strongly which should indicate that 1600m is going to suit, but we are yet to see it.
Postmans Daughter is looking more and more likely to take out one of these races. Her last start was over 2000m, but dropping back in distance doesn't seem to be a major problem for her and she has a strong 1600m record. She also appears to becoming more suited to WFA conditions, and a rain effected track should not hinder her chances two much as she suits them better than a lot in this race.
Lady Kipling has won five races this season. This distance certainly appeals and WFA conditions for the 4YO mare shouldn't hold her chances back.

It is a tough race to pick because of the unknown conditions, looking at the forecast, we could get a lot of rain today, none tomorrow and then some overnight before the race. I will guess that this track will be at least Slow, possibly Heavy. That been the case my selections are
First - Veyron - Looks so good, handles all conditions, just a cut above.
Second - Hold it Harvey - Consistent, will handle the conditions, this could be the right place and the right time
Third - Postman's Daughter - Has shown she is up to this level of competition, back to 1600m shouldn't concern.
Fourth - Eagle Mountain - As I said he is so much of an unknown you really have to include him, particularly on a rain effected surface.

Value - Pretty good value around Postman's Daughter ($16), and even the Hombre ($10). Veyron looks so well placed here, but place odds for those will be interesting.
Longest shot I can see winning - Postman's Daughter ($16)