Big weekend coming up in racing on both sides of the Tasman. There is a lot to look forward to, here is a list of my top seven things to look forward to on the track this weekend, in no particular order (other than the fact it will be chronological).
Reason One
Location: Hamilton
Time: 2.43pm
Huge race day in Hamilton this weekend, it is always a good day out, I would love to be down their again this weekend but unfortunately I will have to write about it instead. There are two Group 1's and a Group 2. The Sir Tristram Fillies Classic is one of those races which falls into the Group 2 category but year after year produces a stunning field which could be seen at Group 1 level. Last year Kings Rose followed up her victory in the 2010 Thousand Guineas with a victory in the Cambridge Stud Sir Tristram Fillies Classic. Planet Rock is looking to accomplish the same feat this year, and will be hoping to reproduce the same success that Kings Rose went on to have over the course of the rest of 2011.
The field she will face at Te Rapa this weekend contains a number of runners who hold nominations to the New Zealand Oaks and this is definitely one of those events which will indicate how likely these fillies are to be able to compete in that race.
The highlights include the aforementioned Planet Rock who won the Guineas and the Eight Carat Classic before going down to Chicharita in the Royal Stakes on New Years day. She looked better than 4th in that race and will likely run better in this event after a month off and having her second look at 2000m.
Chicharita the Royal Stakes winner who has had her two worst performances at Te Rapa, that Royal Stakes finish was impressive and a good draw should keep her handy but this does feel like a tougher race.
Up and coming Quintessential who has been notable with solid performances since her second start. She stepped up and won at Group 3 level in Wellington recently, based on that race I would put her in a similar boat to Artistic in relation to this race, both runs were similar and Quintessential won that time, but both ran similar races that day.
Zurella was highly rated heading into the Royal Stakes but she finished a pretty distant fifth, it may have been the distance or the conditions which effected her, but she has talent and deserves to be considered. Abeautifulred is putting together a decent run of races, however she does seem to encounter better horses having better days, this looks tough but she should be around the first few home.
Artistic, is having a similar season to Abeautifulred, since beating the colts in the Bonecrusher stakes she has had a string of fourth's before her striking third to Quintessential recently, it feels like she has the firepower to win this, she just needs things to go her way to be in a handy position for the finish.
Capital Diamond is never far away and showed great fight to not only chase down Abeautifulred, but to hold off the flying Artistic in the Desert Gold Stakes, the step up to 2000m shouldn't concern, she has the ability to remain consistent.
Our Famous Eve nominated here and in the Darci Brahma International she is probably better suited here, but despite the impressive Royal Stakes second I cannot help but think some of the other talent here will catch up with her.
Of the rest Leica Duell seems to have the form over a bit more ground, but it is hard to see the winner not coming from the top half of the field on Saturday.
The Picks
First - Planet Rock - Should be better this time at 2000m, the draw is a concern, this is a pick on talent
Second - Artistic - We will see another one of those flying finishes she produces, if she starts her run with room she can win.
Third - Quintessential - Should be better positioned from barrier three to unleash another strong finish
Forth - Zurella - With a good track she deserves another shot at 2000m
Value - Hard to see a candidate who is far over the odds here, maybe some value around Quintessential and Capital Diamond
Reason Two
Location: Hamilton
Time: 3.53pm
Group 1 racing is always a reason to get excited and this race includes a number of factors which deserve attention, there are contenders in this race who I would not have thought would be contenders a month ago. Based on the Boxing Day performance it is hard to go past Shez Sensational, forget the 1600m Group 1 it was too short 2000m is far more suitable.
At weight for age level quality three year old's are hard to go past when making selections and Rock'n'Pop looks like a genuine contender. I remember last year on this day We Can Say It Now looked like a strong contender at Group 1 Level in the Waikato Draft Sprint but came up against a resurgent Mufhasa as well as Wall Street and Keep the Peace who had impressive seasons. Rock'n'Pop may be better suited this year in this event.
How about some of the unlikely contenders here:
Six O'Clock News - Speaking of resurgent, the Wellington Cup was great, this is tougher but he is back in form.
Booming - WFA conditions are the most suitable for Booming, 2000m is the most suitable distance too.
Doctor Fremantle - After Boxing Day you have to consider him, was that a fluke or is there better to come?
Postman's Daughter - After the counties win in November she looked to go off, but she is back racing well, WFA does concern, but she still carried 56kg for second in the Thorndon Mile.
Our Famous Eve - If she runs, at 52kgs she could be dangerous.
The Picks
First: Shez Sensational - Too good boxing day in a very similar and possibly tougher race.
Second: Rock'n'Pop - Strong, lightweight, genuine contender.
Third: Hold it Harvey - 2kg relative difference in weight to Six O'Clock News from their last meeting.
Forth: Six O'Clock News - Will give the recent form respect for now.
Value: If Our Famous Eve runs their could be value, however I would suggest that if Six O'Clock News can put on another show the $12 going at the moment is great value.
Reason Three
Location: Hamilton
Time: 5.03pm
The second Group 1 of the day might be even better in the fact that it contains the defending champion Mufhasa and recent 1200m Group 1 winner Guiseppina stepping up to weight for age conditions. Then there is Veyron, a Group 1 winner undefeated over 1400m stepping back from a second over 2000m at WFA conditions. Then there is Sangster a talented 3YO who won his last start in a small race called the Victorian Derby. This may be a three horse race for first, but it should be an interesting three horse race.
The Picks
First: Mufhasa - Simply too good
Second: Guiseppina - Came home so well 1400m really appeals, capable of carrying the weight and winning
Third: Veyron - First time not winning over 1400m.
Forth: Run Like Al - Formidable record on the course and has won three over 1400m
Value - Run Like Al - Although he will have to put on a show to finish better than forth.
Reason Four
Location: Caulfield
Who doesn't love an underdog story? A battler fighting for respect, doing their best and trying to beat the odds. Well this Saturday at Caulfield you will get to witness a horse having her 18th start, having only won a measly $4.5million, her connections hoping that stepping up to 1400m will be what it takes to finally break through for that treasured victory (the 18th one they treasure). The stands will be dripping with Salmon and Black as the crowds come in force to farewell Black Caviar as she heads off in search of stronger competition. It will be a special occasion, it is rare to see an athlete connecting with the general population and transcending their sport to gain the attention of people who would not normally be interested, Black Caviar as accomplished this with her domination through 17 starts, and it looks to continue this weekend, it is definitely something to look forward to this weekend.
Reason Five
Location: Caulfield
Time: 5.50pm
Looking past the fact that simply having Black Caviar run makes this a special occasion, the race she is running in itself is something to look forward to. This race features a number of Group 1 winners, a Caulfield Cup Winner, a Melbourne Cup Winner, multiple horses with over or close to a million in earnings. This race will ask a question of Black Caviar, which doesn't happen too often and probably has not happened since Hay List asked some questions briefly last year, this question is the 1400m which is the first time she will attempt this distance.
Well here is the answer, of course she will handle the 1400m, she runs 1200m with out even getting out of second gear, if she needs to she can at least kick it into third. She finishes races with so much left in the tank that an extra 200m cannot possibly be a concern.
In regard to the quality competition, unfortunately only two of the horses in this race will likely have their next start at this distance, and they are unlikely to be a threat. The remaining horses Efficient, Playing God, Midas Touch, Precedence, Illo and Southern Speed are starting (or early in) their Autumn campaign, this is not a race they would have necessarily been targeting but it is a step as they begin to look at longer races.
Yes, Black Caviar will win, this is not a bold prediction, the interesting part of the race will be to see who else is winding up behind her. A lot of these horses met in other races in the spring, this will be a barometer as to how they are looking now and who is likely to finish on top of the longer races later in the Autumn.
Reason Six
Location: Sydney, Rosehill
Time: 6.50pm
There is also a big race on in Sydney this weekend worth watching. It is a 1200m race which features a few notable horses, three who have won over $2 million (Danleigh, Snipers Bullet, and Sacred Choice) and another two who will likely go over that mark should they win here (Rangirangdo and Shoot Out) and . Three of the runners have imposable records on the track (Rangirangdoo, Centennial Park and Winter King). There are a couple of up and comers with strong records to date, Rain Affair has such a impressive record. A couple are likely looking for a bit more ground. All with have ambitions of going on to bigger events later in the Autumn. Definitely something to look forward to.
Reason Seven
Location: Caulfield
Time: 7:10pm
Anabandana's first start in Australia. The quality kiwi filly is having a start over a distance she owned in New Zealand (1200m). This is probably one of the tougher fields she has faced overall, but she has the benefit of having Craig Williams who will make sure she is in the best place to show that turn of foot we all know she has. It will be great to see her over in Australia preparing to take on some of the top horses in the region, this will be a really good indication of just how good she can be.
Those are my highlights for this weekend, it really will be an excellent show at Te Rapa and everyone will have an eye across the Tasman as the Autumn begins to wind up.
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