It is about halfway through February, the New Zealand Derby takes place on the third of March at Ellerslie. Two years ago Katie Lee was a class three year old, but this race was a bit too long and it would come down to a battle between Zarzuela and Monaco Consul (as far as the book makers were concerned, although Katie Lee was kept safe), as it turned out Military Move was too strong. Last year everyone knew Jimmy Choux was the top three year old, some suspected the distance would test, but his class prevailed. The point is those races were reasonably clear heading into them, they may not have played out the way that people expected them to, but people were generally talking about a couple of options as potential winners.
This year is far different, the odds are frequently shifting, contenders are battling other contenders on a weekly basis, favourites are going down and at this stage there is probably about seven horses who could win and you would not be shocked. There are still 22 horses in the nomination list, and that list does not include Sangster or Dowager Queen who you might have expected to be contenders in November last year. Lets have a look at some of the nominations and why you can make a case for them as a potential derby winner.
Silent Achiever
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (in the Waikato Guineas over 2000m) Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes over 2100m at Ellerslie), Jerobarm (over 1600m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Planet Rock (Eight Carat Classic over 1600m at Ellerslie)
The win over Ocean Park (then derby favourite) was the one that really cemented Silent Achiever as a horse capable of racing at this level. She has really hit the line strongly each time she steps in the distance which makes the 2400m tempting.
Ocean Park
Current Odds - $3.50
Other noms beaten: Shuka, Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Shuka (in the Great Northern Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m), Joys Choice (over 1500m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever (Waikato Guineas over 2000m), Knights Tour (Great Northern Guineas)
Thus far the couple of Victories over Shuka are the most impressive on his resume, however his win in the Wellington Stakes was arguably one of the most impressive victories by a three year old this season, he did beat a strong field that day (just no other nominees). The run for second behind Knight's Tour included a finish which would have seen him leading if the race was 50m longer. The second behind Silent Achiever at Te Rapa was good, he didn't really look that comfortable throughout the trip and finished off strongly, but Silent Achiever was simply outstanding, she did a fantastic job to find the hole and catch Ocean Park.
Rock'n'Pop
Current Odds - $6.00
Other noms beaten: Shuka (2000 Guineas over 1600m)
Beaten by: Shuka (Over 1400m at Ashburton)
Is a Group 1 winner who has also placed at Group 1 level at Open level. He came back with a 5th at Tauranga, he then followed up with a strong performances and finish in the Karaka 3YO mile and that 3rd in the Group 1 Darci Brahma International over 2000m. The third last Saturday was a great indication of talent, he didn't get a lot of favours and really hard to work hard, he showed a lot of speed and made up a lot of distance over the final couple of hundred meters.
Knight's Tour
Current Odds -Now out of derby nominations.
Other noms beaten: Ocean Park, Shuka (Great Northen Guineas at Ellerslie over 1600m)
Beaten by: None
Knight's Tour shot into contention with a surprise victory in the Great Northern Guineas on Boxing Day, he followed this up with a hard fought victory on Karaka Millions night over 1600m. He has looked good to date, the win over Ocean Park is probably his best to date when both finished strongly beating a decent guineas field.
Zurella
Current odds - $6
Other noms beaten: Planet Rock (Sir Tristram Fillies Classic at Te Rapa over 2000m) Joy's Choice (Eulogy Stakes over 1600m at Ellerslie), Joy's Choice, Roamin, (at Te Rapa over 1400m)
Beaten by:
The victory in the Sir Tristram Fillies Classic was huge. She was unable to finish off the 2000m strongly in the Royal stakes, that may have been because of the conditions, or because it was her first attempt, however none of that matters now, she beat a class field on the weekend and won in style over 2000m.
Shuka
Current odds - $10
Other noms beaten: Viking Ace, Barney (Waikato Guineas), Viking Ace, Barney (Championship Stakes), Rock'n'Pop (over 1400m at Ashburton)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever (Championship Stakes), Knight's Tour, Ocean Park (Great Northern Guineas) Rock'n'Pop (2000 Guineas)
Faced a lot of the contenders and has typically been middle of the pack (relative to the others). He has a good record overall and in bigger races but has not really been able to overcome the elite (who are more favoured than him for the race). Looking at his recent performances over 2000m and 2100m I am not concerned about his ability to get 2400m, but he hasn't really showed that the added 400m/300m would have put him in a position where he would have beaten those horses.
Carrick
Current odds - $14
Other noms beaten: None
Beaten by: None
Will be looking to see how he goes against some of the other noms prior to the derby. He has looked solid to date, but maybe has not faced some of the competition of the other noms.
Planet Rock - is now out of the Derby.
Barney
Current odds - $18
Other noms beaten: Nine Pin (over 2100m at Ellerslie)
Beaten by: Silent Achiever, Ocean Park, Shuka (Waikato Guineas), Silent Achiever, Shuka, Viking Ace (Championship Stakes)
$18 odds seem a bit low, but it is hard to argue he is not the next best, or at least in the next best group.
It certainly appears overall that this race will come down to a lot of those top nominees, there is certainly a number of cases you can build for each of them, obviously the removal of Planet Rock and Knight's Tour since I began writing this opens things up slightly for others who would have been considered longer shots, but the top four are very close. By looking at some of the past few derby's it is clear longer shots are never out of this race, it would be wise to look closely at some of the performances in lower grade races of some of the runners to see if you can find your outsider. The Avondale Guineas this weekend is always a great indicator as to how horses may go in the Derby, it is definitely one to tune in for.
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