I tend to enjoy longer races than sprints, I just enjoy the potential for different tactics, the fact that it all plays out over a longer time frame and that things can consistently change throughout the running. It is sad that we only have two major two mile races in New Zealand and very few other staying feature races, the longest Weight For Age Race is the St Ledger over 2500m at listed level, and we have a handful of Group 2 2400m races. So this is a weekend to savour for people who enjoy top fields of stayer's as we have the Group 2 Avondale Cup and the Group 3 Taranaki Cup (which is only over 1800m, but still), these races combine to feature 15 runners who hold nominees for the Auckland Cup (every runner in the Avondale Cup is currently listed as nominated), so to say this is a important lead up weekend for Cup week is not an understatement.
Taranaki Cup
Lets look at the Taranaki Cup first. I have never been to Pukekura Raceway, but I must say that on TV it is certainly one of the more eye catching tracks in the country, the ocean views in the background, Pukekura Park close by (home to New Zealand's most eye catching Cricket ground), it looks like a great place to attend a race day. The highlights of this field include Wellington Cup runner-up Spiro, Showcause returning, who won last years Avondale and City of Auckland Cup's, Thorndon Mile place getter Jetset Lad, the talented and consistent Smoulder, and a few lightweight chances who appeal as up-and-comers.
Place getters in this race over the last couple of years have not actually gone on to even run in the Auckland Cup, preferring alternate 2000m Group 1's, you have to go back to 2009 when Vickezzchardonnay won here and then ran 4th in the Auckland Cup, and Mircile Miss followed up her 3rd her with a 13th in the cup.
Spiro is having his forth start in just over a month, however as the Wellington Cup second shows he gets better with a bit more racing. He has actually won twice 8th up in his career, while also having wins in the 6th and 9th races of campaigns. He is undefeated over 1800m and on the course in his only attempt a couple of years back. I am not sure if going back in distance will really help, he has looked better over longer distances in recent years and he will have to carry an extra 1kg from the Wellington Cup, and 6kgs more than his last victory, which was in the Wellington Cup the year before. There are enough reasons to stay away from him in this event.
Showcause is having his first start back since the New Zealand Cup and a reasonably successful Melbourne Spring. He has such a good record over 2400m and at Ellerslie it is somewhat surprising he was not aimed at defending his Avondale Cup, but clearly having a first start over a shorter distance was the preferred option. All of his Open Handicap victories have come carrying significantly less weight, but with decent ground underfoot he should be respected.
Cassini was probably outweighed in the City of Auckland and Wellington Cup, 55kg does appeal. The weather looks to be fine which should improve the track to the point it will really suit Cassini. The main concern is 1800m, it feels a bit on the sharp side, it would have been interesting to see what weight she might have got in the Avondale Cup, based on Ratings it might have been closer to what Booming is carrying, so this looks her best chance.
Back in Black, the 2000m victory in Hastings looked like a sign of better things to come, we have not see those things yet. As a seasoned campaigner it is surprising to see that this would be the biggest victory of his career. I guess you should respect some of the past results, but I am happy to leave him out.
Jetset Lad looks very well placed here. He will carry more weight than his Group 1 third in the Thorndon Mile, but the impressive finish combined with the strong record in New Plymouth makes it look like 1800m is exactly what will be required.
Riomoral recorded a lower grade win over 1950m, it is really hard to know what to make of that after most of his starts to date have been over 1200-1400m. You have to respect the win, and the weight reduction at this class, but this looks like a challenge.
Sircross has shown consistency over 1600m, 200m more here without many other changes looks like it will suit. He was a chance in each of his last three starts against similar competition, when you look at the added 200m it looks like he will be an even better chance here. Value at $16.
Minquar Qiam was fifth here two years back to Bruce Almighty, I remember really liking him that year and I can neither confirm nor deny having anything on him in the Auckland Cup. He has not quite reached that level again, but if you look at distance and weight this is the type of event which should see him at his peak competitiveness. Is it enough to see him improve on that fifth? I am not so sure.
I am a big Smoulder fan, many of her 19 starts have come over 1600m, but I always thought a bit more distance wouldn't be a challenge. Other than her run in last years Avondale Guineas her only other start over 1600m was in Australia. Both of her recent runs have been against similar or possibly stronger competition so she is very well placed here and 1800m appeals.
Bruce Almighty will be 48th up, his last win was here in July and he has already had 13 starts since then, his best result was two starts back for second. While this is tough I have written him off before only to see him come through. As a winner of 5 races here you cannot completely write him off, but at the same time he is hard to take on recent form.
Spartanicus has a sweet name and again looks like he should be in this type of race at this weight and distance. He is drawn wide which she see him in a similar position to where he produced a big finish last start. Worth considering, but it appears that there might be too much talent here for him.
Better Together looks to have some ability and should challenge with only 53kgs. Her best recent results have seen her handy from reasonable draws so barrier two is probably right where she wants to be, the distance looks right, her best results have come left handed. She is right in this. Currently paying $9 fixed odds feels about right but maybe a touch short to be considered great value. It is hard to leave her out.
The inform Star of the Show has won 3 straight and not been out of the top 3 this summer. All of that has come at a lower grades, but the reduced weight and big finishes make this seem like the right time to have a shot at this type of race. This is a major step up and will test the 4YO, but I can actually see it happening.
The Raconteur takes a while to get going, but has not shown the same consistency as he did a year ago. The only appeal is the light weight, but it would be a surprise to see him in the top four.
Pomellato is a horse who is closing in on that course specialist title with half of her wins coming here. She was in a far lower grade when she won over 1800m here a month ago. While she looks like a chance, if I was picking a light weight option I would probably look elsewhere.
Bruno is another stepping up who is hard to completely discount, because of weight and recent results. This is a good chance to show his potential if he runs, but a win would surprise.
The Pick
First - Smoulder - All things considered she is the one who looks the most likely to see winning.
Second - Sircross - Good value is hard to turn down, will be interesting to see the tote place odds.
Third - Jetset Lad - I can see why he is favoured here, but there are a lot of chances, it will be a good victory for whoever comes through.
Forth - Better Together - I think one of the lightweights will feature and it was really a toss up between her and Star of the Show, Cassini still deserves a look as well.
Best Value - Sircross ($16)
Longest Shot I can see winning - Bruce Almighty ($21, although it feels a bit short)
Avondale Cup
This time last year Showcause was the lock of the day in the Avondale Cup (... checking result, Ok, maybe not, but Darryl Bradley looks reasonably comfortable in the photo). He went on to run Second in the Auckland Cup, Innocent Lady took her Second here to Forth in the Auckland Cup, and Can't Keeper Down went on to run fifth in the Auckland Cup following her forth. A good show here is important (Trilogy 4th to 9th, Castle Heights 6th to 3rd, Tinsletown 8th to 11th), and does correlate to Auckland Cup success. Prior to last year the race was run at Avondale (in December), the last running was won by Ginga Dude, however in 2010 there was a Cup prelude run on this day, Heza Karma Karzi won and then ran last in the Auckland Cup, Everbright was second and ran 13th in the Cup and Six O'Clock News ran 3rd ended up 7th in that years Auckland Cup, it is evident that the Group 2 status makes this race much more attractive as a lead up to the Auckland Cup, every runner you will see on Saturday still holds a nomination to the Auckland Cup.
For your interest the lead ups for the last three Auckland Cup winners (Titch, Zavite, Spin Around) was Second in the Nathan's Memorial, 1st in a 2500m race in Melbourne, and Second in the Nathan's Memorial, so look out on Derby Day for our next Cup winner. Prize Lady ran in the equivalent of the Avondale Cup/Cup Prelude prior to both of her Auckland Cup Wins.
Booming is carrying a significant weight on Saturday, you can expect him to put forward a good effort over 3200m in the Auckland Cup, but this looks tough. Weight For Age races clearly appeal because of the relative weights his rivals will carry and he has not had a lot of luck this year, but efforts were better prior to Christmas and in Melbourne. Paying $10 on fixed odds seems right as I can't see him as favourite but you cannot rule him out.
The Jungle Boy loves Ellerslie! he enjoys the scenery, he must like the company and crowd, he has had nine starts here, about a quarter of his total races, it is just unfortunate that he doesn't like racing here. It is a mystery as to why, if you take Ellerslie out of it he has won 3 of 12 right handed, it is not like he has come up against amazing competition, or terrible conditions, or consistent bad draws, it is just a weird statistical thing. He has been consistent lately, was good in the Wellington Cup (his first placing at 2400m), but course and distance stats are a concern. This might be the day.
Current New Zealand Cup Champion Blood Brotha won in atrocious conditions. He was very quiet in the Wellington Cup at a point when 2400m seemed ideal. Looking back he has generally bounced back after a bad result so feel free to ignore that Wellington run. They should nickname this horse The Carousel as Michael Coleman will become the 8th Jockey to ride him in as many starts.
Castle Heights was third in the Auckland Cup last year following his 6th in this race. His third in the Waikato Times Gold Cup was in a reasonably similar race. Ellerslie has not been his favourite place to run and 2400m has not been his best distance, but it certainly looks like things are lining up nicely for him to overcome that on Saturday.
Single Minded won the City of Auckland Cup he is back tomorrow carrying only 1kg more. He has won four of his 10 starts, three of those have come this campaign, two over this distance. He was reasonably close in the Wellington Cup and can easily contend here.
Loose Change's only start at Ellerslie to date was a third in this race last year. He has consistently made ground toward the finish in starts over 2000m and should give the punter every chance. Maybe there are horses with more talent in this race but you should get an honest performance and a horse going forward not backwards when it matters. 2400m appeals and $10 looks like decent value.
Wisecrack will be ridden by James McDonald for the 3rd consecutive time and is searching for win number three from those races.He has won half of his starts and generally either wins or really loses, his best result when not winning is finishing 5 lengths from the winner. The last two non-victories involved a vet problem and a knock, the 11th in the Derby was on a very wet day, and the other poor performance looks like it was simply his second start. From that you can assume that he will win unless he gets bad luck.
Don Domingo is a horse who does not really appeal at this level, despite that the fact that he is only going to carry 53kgs. The good include, 53kg's, 3 wins at Ellerslie, he improves with racing, the unknown is the 2400m and the Open Handicap level does not appeal. He might be worth a flyer.
Yours has won 8 races and over 100k but this would be by far the most significant. It is hard not to be a snob but when a horse is racing at Open Handicap level with 48 career starts and none at Ellerslie you have to question the opposition. I would say you have to consider him on the basis of the close second to Titch, but if Titch was in this race would he be in your top four? probably not on current form. This is also his first start right handed.
Innocent Lady has all of the potential in the world. She actually reminds me a bit of Six O'Clock News, it is very impressive when it comes together, but a lot of the time it just doesn't. Her last couple of starts before this race last year were dubious, then she ran second here and fourth in the Auckland Cup. She is well weighted to make her look like value.
Maythehorsebemagic was racing over fences 6 months ago, however has looked pretty good as a stayer on the flat. This is a step up, but the recent record over 2400m and at Ellerslie makes this look tempting particularly given the 52.5kg which is basically nothing compared to what he carried as a hurdler. He will also go pretty well fresh too.
Top Spot has done pretty well with a couple starts at Open level, she will carry 2kg's less than the City of Auckland Cup third. She appears to like it with a bit of moisture around. Give her a chance.
Aruriteson really needs to show me something to make me think he can cut it at this level.
The Picks
First - Wisecrack - just looks like this will be a suitable situation for win number four.
Second - Single Minded - should battle well with wisecrack
Third - Maythehorsebemagic - Will stay well, ready to step up? 52kg is a temptation that is hard to pass on.
Forth - Loose Change - Honest performer who should go close
Best Value - Maythehorsebemagic ($21) - Another place chance at odds
Longest Shot I can see winning - Maythehorsebemagic
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