2011 Melbourne Cup Preview

They call it "the race that stops a nation". In reality it stops two, with New Zealand grinding to a halt slightly after five local time to watch this storied event. This year it feels like this race will stop many nations, with horses from France, England, Dubai, and Germany having legitimate shots to take away the Cup. In this preview I will count down from 24th to first who I think has the best chance to win the Melbourne Cup in 2011.

Sweepstake Reward Group
While you wouldn't be happy to see these names on your Sweep ticket you might get some reward if last place pays out.

24th - (19) Saptapadi - One win and $86k in winnings, this is a massive ask. Nowhere to be seen in the Caulfield Cup, eighth in the Herbert Power stakes which was not as strong as recent years. Watch this video, there is a lot of Melbourne Cup form on display.

23rd - (20) Shamrocker - Has just not been there this Spring. She placed in two Oaks races last year and won a Derby, that type of pedigree would normally indicate that two miles is a possibility, but recent performances have been lacking.


22th - (8) Fox Hunt - He did win the German St Leger I have no idea how that translates to this. I think this is a bit too much of a step up.

Known Quantities
Horses we know a bit about but would find it hard to recommend.


21st - (13) Hawk Island - There was a lot to like in the Metrop run where he was wide and came at them well. However we probably needed to see more in the Caulfield Cup to seriously consider him here.


20th - (24) Older Than Time - She seems to have had a similar build up to this race as her build up to the Sydney Cup performance in April, the difference is that she has not had the same level of success in her build up for this race. It is hard to see her winning, but she is a horse who will see out the distance and will only carry 51kgs, $101 seems a bit over the odds, but this is a big ask.

19st - (7) Unusual Suspect - His Caulfield cup run was actually good which is why it is hard to have him this far down. He just didn't show enough leading up to that run to make me believe he will win this.

18th - (21) The Verminator - The Metrop winner will carry 52kg again on Tuesday. Barrier four should suit and I imagine he could get a nice trip behind Jukebox Jury and other runners coming from wide to challenge for the lead. Although he is still only carrying 52kgs there are others here who will get a lot more weight relief from past starts. He should give an honest performance but might simply be running into better horses in this event.

Unknown Quantities
Hard to know what to expect from this group. These have not started in Australia.


17th - (16) Modun - Apparently was brought to win this race. Hard to see it this year. Consistent in eight starts. No indication of how he will suit the conditions, but he seems to go well fresh.


16th - (15) Lost in the Moment - Well drawn and has nice weight relief. He is a consistent runner who was in the mix in every race leading up to the Ebor. He has not had an Australian start so is another runner with a lot of unknowns. He is currently paying more with the bookmakers than his stablemate Modun despite more weight relief from that Ebor start.



Could go either way 
These two horses should  dictate how this race is run and can contend if they stay the distance.


15th - (23) Glass Harmonium - This will be his third start in ten days. His connections will be wondering what could have been in the Cox Plate after that strong run in the Mackinnon on Saturday. He just looked like a strong racehorse in that performance, he showed enough to indicate he could get the 3200m and he is another who seems to pull out his best at Flemington.  He will need to go forward from the very wide barrier which is how he races anyway.

14th - (2) Jukebox Jury - If his Irish St Ledger run is anything to go by we will get a good show from this horse on Tuesday.  He set a good pace and showed a lot of guts coming home. He will have no problems with 3200m. However it is still hard to pick a winner who has not yet started in Australia, until it happens I will stick to horses who know the conditions.


Middle of the pack
Some definite contenders in this group.They will be vying for a share of the money and could turn some heads.

13th (12) Red Cadeaux - He looked beaten in the Irish St Ledger with 400m to go, but he kept finding extra and ran home strongly. He has a number of starts over more distance, but that type of horse doesn't always go well in this race. He seems to suit all conditions so although he has not tested the Australian conditions in his build up he could surprise.

12th - (6) Manighar - Finished off 2400m well in the Caulfield Cup. He has gone a few consistent races recently without winning one. This is tougher than that Caulfield start but he has merit.

11th - (17)At First Sight - Maybe flying slightly under the radar in this field. He ran a strong close second to December Draw in September, was then entered into six races and trials before actually starting one, in that start he ran second in the Bendigo cup. He broke the maiden ranks in his second of his eleven starts and has not won another one since.


10th - (9) Lucas Cranach - While the fifth placing in the Caulfield Cup was not bad given where he spent most of the race, I did expect more from this highly rated horse. I think Lucas Cranach offers the biggest range of possible outcomes in this race, I think he could win, but I could also see him departing without firing a shot. I will predict a middle of the pack uninspiring performance. In early drafts of this I have had him as high as fifth and as low as fifteenth, I am just not sure what to expect. I know I am underrating this horse, but I keep comparing him to horses further up this list and I just can't move him up.



9th - (18) Moyenne Corniche - There was a lot to like from his run in the Ebor, that race contained a lot of form leading into this race. He took a bit of time to wind up, but showed a good top speed when he reached it, he finished off strongly enough over 2800m. The thing I like about that run was the size of the field and the way he finished in traffic, he will probably need that experience from barrier seventeen. He has had a decent run in Melbourne to acclimatise so will be ready for this. He will only carry 52kgs on Tuesday. He could win this. If he goes well then the likes of Modun, Lost in the Moment, Saptapadi and Fox hunt could also not be far behind. I initially had him further down the pack when drafting this list, but as I keep looking at this he keeps rising in my prediction, but race time tomorrow I might rate him in the top six or seven.


8th - (10) Mourayan - He was full of running at the end of the Mackinnon on Saturday, he has been carrying a lot more weight recently and racing with consistency. I am slightly worried about barrier fourteen as he might get caught in no mans land, he might need luck to find a nice place to sit in the pack.


The Bart Factor
7th -(11) Precedence - Cannot base this high rating on performances on the track. I am purely basing this prediction on this article. I know trainers are going to rate their horse a better chance than it really is in most cases, however you have got to respect Bart when it comes to these things. Tuesday could be a double win for Sir Patrick Hogan as he not only owns a share in Precedence but he owns Zabeel, who has already sired three Melbourne Cup winners and will be looking for a fourth.

Contenders
Have to be seriously considered winning chances

6th - (4) Drunken Sailor - I liked the Caulfield Cup run, he cut across the back of the pack from a wide barrier and was happy just to have a run along the rail. He showed a lot of patience and was unlucky as they bunched up not to get a run, things opened up at about the 300m mark and he ran on well. Barrier eight should see him more handy for a similar staying performance.

5th -(22) Tullamore - I am betting that the form coming out of the Moonee Valley Cup holds up on Tuesday. He also placed in the Caulfield Cup so he seems to be hitting form at a good time. His weight drops 5kgs from that solid chasing performance so you can expect him to be flying home in this. 



4th - (14) Illo - He will carry 3.5kgs less than his last start in the Moonee Valley Cup. That was a good performance, he was caught wide and had to move forward, he seemed to hold on well to third and although Americain was getting away from him the weight reduction and a better trip from barrier one will be advantageous here. Bart Cummings has been training this German galloper, he brings strong form into this having won five races from fourteen starts and looks like he has been building up towards longer distances.

3rd - (23) Niwot - Seems to go very well at Flemington. The Lexus had a very strong field and has been a good indicator of Melbourne Cup success over the past few years. He is a stayer who wont be bothered by the 3200m having won over that distance at Flemington in the past, 51kgs makes him look like a great lightweight chance.

Favourites
Should be in every multiple placed on the day it does feel a bit like a coin flip.

2nd - (1) Americain - The deserved favourite. He won here twelve months ago, he has started six times since that race, winning twice. There is no question around his form, he ran a comfortable race in the Moonee Valley Cup to win last start. Prior to his first start in Australia this prep his form was mixed, but this race would have been the target, he was in much better form leading into this race a year ago. He is carrying the top weight of 58kgs, the 3.5kg increase from last year is a question which needs to be asked, but he carried it well in his last start, over the past twelve months he has carried as much as 61kgs. Very few horses have won this race back to back, it has only happened five times, Americian is well placed to make it six.

The Winner
(3) Dunaden - A French Quinella? These horses have met twice in the past twelve months, Dunaden carried 2kgs less than Americain when they finished 9th and 10th respectively in August, Dunaden actually carried 1.5kgs more in April when he finished first and Americain 6th. This time Americain will carry 3.5kgs more, with Dunaden carrying 54.5kgs (incidentally, this what Americain carried winning this race last year). He won the Geelong Cup with a run that made the other horses appear to be standing still on the bend. They say that was not the best Geelong Cup field, however Tanby went on to win the Bendigo Cup the following week, Bauer was improving and shortened significantly with the bookmakers for this race following that performance, and Showcause was pretty strong all spring.

Condensing my thoughts in this manner has been an excellent way to understand how I feel about a lot of the runners. Reading through this again I definitely feel like most of this field has their claims and a case can be made for most of the twenty four runners. This is always a special race, this feels like a particularly strong field. I am pretty confident one of the French horses will come out on top, but I get the impression that we will have a few surprises in the next few horses home.